2015 El Niño?

[deep octopus]

With climate change interacting with an unequivocally powerful El Niño (whether we ponder and appraise its intensity with terms like "strong", "super", "Godzilla", "monster", or "kaiju"), it's clear that the synergistic roles of each on the other will take us to "uncharted territory", as the link article below shows.

From The Guardian (November 16, 2015)

John Vidal and Damian Carrington
Monday 16 November 2015 08.04 EST

El Niño: food shortages, floods, disease and droughts set to put millions at risk

The UN has warned of months of extreme weather in many of the world’s most vulnerable countries with intense storms, droughts and floods triggered by one of the strongest El Niño weather events recorded in 50 years, which is expected to continue until spring 2016.

...

This year, a strong El Niño has been building since March and its effects are already being seen in Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Malawi, Indonesia and across Central America, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. The phenomenon is also being held responsible for uncontrolled fires in forests in Indonesia and in the Amazon rainforest.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organization warned in a report on Monday that the current strong El Niño is expected to strengthen further and peak around the end of the 2015. “Severe droughts and devastating flooding being experienced throughout the tropics and sub-tropical zones bear the hallmarks of this El Niño, which is the strongest in more than 15 years,” said WMO secretary-general Michel Jarraud.

Jarraud said the impact of the naturally occurring El Niño event was being exacerbated by global warming, which had already led to record temperatures this year. “This event is playing out in uncharted territory. Our planet has altered dramatically because of climate change,” he said. “So this El Niño event and human-induced climate change may interact and modify each other in ways which we have never before experienced. El Niño is turning up the heat even further.”

Link: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/nov/16/el-nino-food-shortages-floods-disease-and-droughts-set-to-put-millions-at-risk?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

[crandles]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34832317

The El Niño weather event is expected to gain in strength before the end of this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

In its latest update, the WMO says the 2015 occurrence will be among the three strongest recorded since 1950.

Severe droughts and significant flooding in many parts of the world are being attributed to this El Niño.

The WMO warn these impacts are likely to increase and this event is now in "uncharted territory".
El Niño is a naturally occurring weather episode that sees the warm waters of the central Pacific expand eastwards towards North and South America.

The phenomenon, which happens every two to seven years, usually peaks late in the calendar year, although the effects can persist well into the following spring.

This year's El Niño seems to be following that pattern.

According to the WMO, the peak three month average water surface temperatures in tropical Pacific will exceed 2C above normal.

It is the strongest event since 1998 and is expected to be among the three most powerful ever recorded.

While stressing that El Niño is not the only factor driving global climate patterns, the WMO says that the implications of the weather system in a warmer world are uncertain.

"This event is playing out in uncharted territory. Our planet has altered dramatically because of climate change, the general trend towards a warmer global ocean, the loss of Arctic sea ice and of over a million square km of summer snow cover in the northern hemisphere," said Mr Jarraud.

Oh dear.

'Will be among the three strongest' or has it already reached that?

"uncharted territory" hmm, hints of hyperbole perhaps, with third strongest not really cutting it so find some way to spice it up?

'average water surface temperatures in tropical Pacific will exceed 2C above normal' will? or already reached 3C above?

[deep octopus]

'average water surface temperatures in tropical Pacific will exceed 2C above normal' will? or already reached 3C above?

From the article's context, they are talking about the three-month average. If they're going by the ONI, I agree, it's virtually certain to exceed 2 C starting with the SON season, though it hasn't yet (ONI for ASO season was 1.7 C.)

[wili]

Along the same lines:

El Niño of 2015 Hits All-Time Record Strength for a 1-Week Period

Incredibly warm waters continue to build across the equatorial Pacific, and the El Niño event of 2015 has just set a record for the warmest waters ever observed in the equatorial Pacific over a 1-week period. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific’s Niño3.4 region, between 90°W and 160°E longitude and 5° north/south latitude, are considered the benchmark for rating the strength of an El Niño event.

The weekly departure of SST from average in this region hit +3.0°C (5.4°F) over the past week, NOAA announced in their November 16 El Niño update. This exceeds the previous 1-week record warmth in the equatorial Pacific of 2.8°C above average set during the week of November 26, 1997; accurate El Niño records extend back to 1950.

However, the standard measure for the strength of an El Niño event is the three-month average Niño 3.4 SSTs, and the El Niño of 2015 is not yet officially considered the strongest on record. The August-September-October 2015 three-month average Niño 3.4 SSTs were 1.7°C above average, good for only the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1997. Judging from the trajectory of SST anomalies in Figure 1, though, it is likely that one of the late-year three-month average Niño 3.4 SST values in 2015 will end up upending 1997’s record warmth and claim for the 2015 the title as strongest El Niño event on record.

El Niño can’t get much stronger than it is now, though, since there simply isn’t enough warm water available in the Western Pacific to transport to the Eastern Pacific; wunderblogger Steve Gregory speculated in his Friday post that El Niño may now be peaking, and will begin a slow decline over the the next three months. Even so, El Niño will decline only gradually, and we can expect significant global impacts on weather during the coming winter. Below, I’ll dive into some of the major non-U.S. impacts we can expect (and have already seen) from a strong El Niño; Bob Henson has covered the likely U.S. impacts in a number of previous posts, which are linked at the bottom of the blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3186

[AbruptSLR]

Attached is the Figure 1 that wili's post from Wunderground refers to:

[Sigmetnow]

JPL climatologist warns of atmospheric rivers to hit California this winter -- and drought in Central and South America.

El Niño is here, and it'll be 'one storm after another like a conveyor belt'
http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-ln-el-nino-coming-20151113-story.html

[andy_t_roo]

I think the impacts of El Nino are a good entry into climate change discussion ; a small part of the Pacific gets 2c warmer and entire continents have issues, and we are looking at a permanent (hundreds of years ++)  future change of that scale across the entire world...

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average, for the third day in a row, has stayed constant at -10.2:

[Pmt111500]

The one degree limit has been crossed using 1951-1980 baseline: http://davidappell.blogspot.fi/2015/11/giss-posts-first-ever-global-anomaly.html

This would likely be a partly due to the spring 'almost El Nino', as the global surface temperature tends to follow the El Nino area temperatures after 5 months. By march we might nostalgically remember the days when surface T anomaly was only 1,04 K.

[nukefix]

Here's an animation of monthly Mean Sea Level Anomaly from satellite altimetry (click to animate). Source of the imagery is:

http://bulletin.aviso.oceanobs.com/html/produits/indic/enso/welcome_uk.php3

[deep octopus]

The El Niño 2015 Conference hosted by Columbia University has started, for anyone who is interested in tuning in.

A livestream of the conference (running November 17-18 from 8:00 AM-6:30 EDT) is available on the website:
http://iri.columbia.edu/elnino2015conference/

Experts are monitoring the development of one of the largest El Niño events of the last 50 years, and notably, the largest since the 1997-98 event that shocked global food, water, health, energy and disaster-response systems. The current El Niño is expected to peak by the end of the calendar year. It offers a unique opportunity for governments, scientists, economists, humanitarian agencies, development professionals and the media to define the research and development agenda for enhanced climate resilience and sustainable development.

To seize this opportunity, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), part of Columbia University’s Earth Institute, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will convene the El Niño 2015 Conference from November 17-18, 2015 in New York.

[AbruptSLR]

The first three attached images are from the BoM issued Nov 16 2015 and show summaries of Nino 3.4 projections for Dec 2015, Feb 2016 and April 2016, respectively.  The plots show that the NASA projections (which have been the most accurate to date) show our current El Nino peaking at +3.1C in December and then slowly decline in 2016.

The fourth NOAA GFS ensemble for the MJO forecast from Nov 17 to Dec 1 2015, shows that the MJO is remaining relatively strong which will continue to suppress atmosphere support for our current El Nino:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot shows the University of Albany's 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Nov 17 to 24 2015; which to me supports the idea that our current El Nino will likely peak in late Nov or more likely in early Dec 2015:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -9.6:

[AbruptSLR]

The first NOAA image of the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Nov 14 2015, shows that the downwelling EKW continues moving eastward, and that cool subsurface water is filling in behind it west of 160W (and indication that the El Nino will soon peak).

The second NOAA image of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Nov 18 2015, shows that the heat content is declining, and without future reinforcement from the atmosphere (which is currently lacking), our current El Nino may well be peaking soon.

The third image of NOAA's GFS Ensemble Active MJO Phase forecast from Nov 18 to Dec 2, 2015, shows projected weakening of the MJO active phase; which raises the slight possibility that more atmospheric reinforcement of El Nino conditions might (or might not) occur in late Dec 2015.

The four NOAA image shows a 15-day forecast for the influence of the MJO indicating that in this period the current dampening influence of the MJO to weaken the current El Nino, should become less pronounced.

[Lord M Vader]

According to Tropical Tidbits, the Niño 4 is now warmer than Niño 1+2 area. Both these areas are showing a decline in SST anomalies (SSTA) but the SSTA in the Niño 1+2 area is dropping at a faster pace than in the Niño 4-area.

This might support the idea of a more Modoki-dominated El Niño this winter...

In the Niño 3-area, we may reach 3,0 in the next few days. In the Niño 3.4-area we reached an anomaly of 3,082^oC today. Let's see how much higher we'll get!! But I think this and maybe next week will be the peak of our Super El Niño.

In any case, this winter will be very interesting!!

Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -8.4 (and will likely soon be considered to be in the neutral range)

[oren]

Saw this today on Business Insider

It's official: This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is coming

So another weather record has been set. What does it mean? In the very short term it means that there will be some hellacious weather in the US Pacific West/Texas in the next 90 days. It also means there will be a drought in Australia and Indonesia. Other parts of the globe will feel the consequences of the mega Nino.

However, there is another consequence of this year’s El Nino that is virtually a sure thing to happen within the next half year. A very rapid change in El Nino water temperatures will follow – in nine months we will have gone 180 degrees in the opposite direction and we will be dealing with a very strong La Nina.

Is this statement true? I am under the impression that it's far from a sure thing.

[AbruptSLR]

Is this statement true? I am under the impression that it's far from a sure thing.

In my opinion, it is likely true if we are now experiencing the peak of the El Nino; however, if the atmosphere changes in December into conditions that reinforce El Nino conditions (which could bring on conditions closed to the 82-83 conditions), then 2016 could remain in neutral ENSO conditions.  So it all depends on volatile atmospheric behavior.

[Sleepy]

Add to that, the strong La Ninas seems to be fading over time.
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
If I were a gambling man I would bet on a follow up like in 82-83 and not a strong La Nina.

Also add this from ECMWF a couple of days ago:
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/el-nino-approaches-peak-warming
A small quote with the following picture in the article attached.

Consequently this El Niño event remains more central-Pacific-focussed than that of 1997. However, it can be seen that a few ensemble members suggest a small probability of renewed growth of NINO1+2 temperature anomalies in 2016.

[Lord M Vader]

While one shouldn't focus too much on different time analysises, Tropical tidbits showed a slight decrease of the SSTA in the Niño 3.4 - area between wednesday and thursday. This might indicate that our current El Niño has peaked. In any case it should do so very soon as no reinforcing response from the atmosphere seems to be imminent during the net couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, the difference between Niño 4 and Niño 1+2 has now grown to 0,3^oC.

Tropical tidbits: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

The odds to wheter or not a La Niña will take place in 2016 should be 50-50.

Best, LMV

[oren]

Thanks all for the responses

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has stayed constant at -8.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -8.4 for the third day in a row.

[jai mitchell]

I don't quite get the SOI graphic.  does a negative value indicate a strengthening El Nino?  Does a moderately negative value indicate that a currently strong El Nino will maintain but not grow?

[AbruptSLR]

I don't quite get the SOI graphic.  does a negative value indicate a strengthening El Nino?  Does a moderately negative value indicate that a currently strong El Nino will maintain but not grow?

jai,

As the SOI is an Aussie index it is upside down [from an NH perspective], so per the BoM's definitions (see the link below, see also the associated attached plot) sustained atmospheric conditions with an SOI more negative than -8 typically indicate El Nino favorable conditions (depending on what the ocean and boundary conditions are doing), while sustained positive SOI value above +8 indicate La Nina conditions (again depending on what the ocean and boundary conditions are doing).

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml

The SOI is the most volatile ENSO index [as it only considers the atmosphere], while the MEI is probably the most scientific [as it considers both the atmosphere & the ocean]; and the ONI is probably the most authoritative [as it only considers the ocean and thus errors most on the side of least drama].

Edit: To answer your last question, a downwelling EKW is always dissipating energy in the Eastern Pacific, which needs to be re-supplied by more warm water from the Western Pacific; which is supplied by westerly equatorial winds, that are supported by negative SOI atmospheric conditions but which are destroyed by the prevailing trade winds (easterlies).  As the ENSO is a chaotic resonance phenomena dependent on worldwide MetOcean conditions and not just on SOI (which itself is synergistically supported by evaporation of warm water in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific), it is impossible to tie specific SOI values to ENSO behavior, but about 2/3rds of the time we do not have El Nino conditions; so I would say that for the SOI to support El Nino conditions into 2016 they would need to have sustained values well below -12 starting very soon (as if the oceanic conditions flip into La Nina conditions first then the atmosphere would need to work much harder to sustain even weak El Nino conditions in 2016, and note that the ocean is already showing signs that it is getting ready to flip into a La Nina pattern.

Very best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

As my prior posts show that soon the SOI will likely be neutral (probably due to the still relatively strong MJO, see the first two attached NOAA GFS MJO forecasts), and as the third attached image of the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Nov 21 to 28 2015, show no strong WWBs forecast; the smart money would lean towards a La Nina forming sometime after mid-2016, particularly as the following Wikipedia linked article indicates that the main Pacific Typhoon Season runs from May to October:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pacific_typhoon_season

However, as global warming is extending the length of the Pacific Typhoon season (even now a typhoon could occur at any time of year), there is still a diminishing chance that 2016 could be either ENSO neutral or even could sustain a very weak El Nino (not likely though).

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -8.4 for the fourth day.

[Csnavywx]

SOI values are universally forecast (by all OP globals and their ensembles) to start plummeting again in about 5 days to about -3SD.

Also, somewhat connected to that -- there appears to be a real probability of a S. Hem. TC that could help enhance a strong WWB starting in about a week.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI is now in the neutral range at -7.8:

[AbruptSLR]

As I imagine that several people are waiting for a Nino update, and DO appears to be preoccupied, I provide the following NOAA data showing that the Nino 3.4 is now +3.1, that both the Nino 1+2 and the Nino 4 increased, and the Nino 3 remained constant at +3.0.


                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA

 07OCT2015     23.4 2.7     27.7 2.8     29.1 2.4     29.7 1.0
 14OCT2015     23.3 2.5     27.5 2.6     29.1 2.4     29.7 1.1
 21OCT2015     23.1 2.2     27.5 2.6     29.2 2.5     29.9 1.3
 28OCT2015     23.4 2.3     27.7 2.8     29.4 2.7     30.0 1.4
 04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8

[AbruptSLR]

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Nov 22, 2015; with the first image showing that the Nino 3.4 increased (showing strong oceanic conditions for an El Nino) while second image shows that the IOD dropped (indicating weak atmospheric conditions for support from the Indian Ocean area).

The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Nov 23, 2015 showing that the upper ocean heat anom is currently dissipating (which is normal) and will soon require atmospheric support if it is not to switch into either neutral or La Nina conditions.

The fourth image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution, indicating that the current downwelling EKW is peaking, but that the trough of upwelling EKW has already begun.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Nov 22 2015 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; which all increased.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached BoM plot, the 30-day moving average SOI moved up to -6.5 (and will likely rise further into the neutral range over at least the next several days):

[AbruptSLR]

The first two NOAA images associated with the MJO forecasts indicate that the MJO is not weakening as fast as previously projected so the SOI should continue moving up rapidly (and could reach positive values).

The third image shows NOAA's Eq. Pac Subsurface Temp Anom model results for Nov 19 2015, showing that in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific the downwelling part of the EKW appears now to be reflecting off of South America; which to me indicates that if we do not get sustained WWB's develop within about 2 weeks then the oceanic conditions supporting El Nino conditions will start to dissipate as the cool tongue of subsurface water moving eastward from the Western Equatorial Pacific will likely strengthen.

The fourth image shows the University of Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast; indicating a weak/moderate WWB near 170W for the next few days, and thereafter only prevailing trade wind conditions (which would support conditions disruptive to El Nino development).

[AbruptSLR]

The following extract is from the BoM's ENSO Wrap-up Overview:

Extract: "Indian Ocean Dipole over and out for 2015

Issued on 24 November 2015  | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—which reinforced El Niño impacts since late August—has broken down over the past fortnight. This rapid decay is common at the start of the monsoon season. The IOD has little influence on Australian climate between December and April.

More broadly, Indian Ocean temperatures have remained warmer than average through 2015; the October sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for the Indian Ocean was the highest positive anomaly for any month on record. The warm Indian Ocean appears to have offset some of the drying influence from El Niño during the winter months."

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by the BoM, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -5.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued to rise up to -5.3:

[Lord M Vader]

Niño 4 seems to be reaching another record. According to Tropical Tidbits today 06z Nov 26 the SST anomaly was at +1,899^oC above the 1981-2010 climatology.

The latest forecast from University of Albany is highly interesting. While the north hemisphere is showing no signs of positive westerlies the next 7 days the opposite is true for the South Pacific which should see strong to very strong westerlies just east of the dateline. Compare for yourself between:

North Hemisphere 0-10^oN: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.0N-10N.gif
South Hemisphere 0-10^oS: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.10S-0S.gif

The "normal" picture (5^oS-5^oN): http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving averaged has continued on up to -4.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant for a second day at -4.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -4.0:

[AbruptSLR]

The first NOAA image of the projected Eq Pac Subsurface Temp. Anom, shows that the EKW is still in the act of reflecting off of South America, and that the tongue of cool subsurface water west of the international dateline appears to be strengthening and may soon disrupt the current EKW.

The second NOAA image of the Eq. Pac. Upper-Ocean Heat Anom circa Nov 29 2015, indicating that the Ocean Heat Anom in this region of the Pacific is dropping relatively rapidly.

The third NOAA image shows that the active phase of the MJO is still relatively strong but is projected to weaken rapidly in the next few days.

The fourth University of Albany image of the 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Nov 29 to Dec 13, 2015, shows that moderate WWB activity is forecast to persist west of the International Dateline.

[AbruptSLR]

Apparently, for the 4th day in a row the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -4.0, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM:

[deep octopus]

The Nino 3.4 region dipped to 3.0 C over the last week, according to NOAA. This is the third consecutive week with +3.0 C reads in this region. As we approach the solstice, and begin meteorological winter, the effects of this very intense El Niño should bear out globally. In South Asia, decreased rainfall is already contributing to some of the worst peat fires in years.

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows that the BoM's Nino 3.4 index through Nov 29 2015 also dropped; while the second BoM image for the same week shows that the IOD increased (indicating that the MJO is weakening).

The third and fourth images were issued today by NOAA, with the third image showing the Eq Pac. Upper-Ocean Heat Anom Evolution, showing that the current downwelling phase of the EKW is larger than the last phase, but so is the following upwelling phase (which will likely weaken the current strong El Nino conditions); while the fourth image showing four weekly SSTA plots for the Pacific show that the current downwelling phase of the EKW is increasing the Nino 2 index off of South America.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Nov 29 2015, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of these indices are down, except for the Nino 2 index, which increased indicating that the downwelling phase of the EKW has reached South America.

[jai mitchell]

looks like its getting ready to push into maximum

[AbruptSLR]

looks like its getting ready to push into maximum

I think it likely that the Nino 3.4 index has already peaked; however, the maximum impact of this El Nino on global mean surface temperature, will not be felt until 2016.

[Csnavywx]

Aye, it's hard to sustain this kind of extreme value for long. Eventually the excess warm water supply exhausts and cools, allowing the trade winds to eventually resume.

As the world warms however, it should be easier to reach the critical temperature threshold (27.5C+) for deep tropical convection and allow for longer and/or stronger and higher frequency Ninos.