2015 El Niño?

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -4.7:

[AbruptSLR]

The first two NOAA's images were issued today and indicate that the MJO has finally collapsed and should remain low for well over two weeks.  This should likely give the SOI a chance to become more negative in this coming weeks; which together with the relatively high cloud cover indicated at the Equatorial International Dateline by BoM's third image.  If atmospheric conditions continue to suppress the trade winds for a few months, then there is a chance that 2016 will either remain ENSO neutral or might have a small chance of sustaining weak El Nino conditions throughout 2016 as hinted by the fourth attached image of the CFSv2 corrected Nino 3.4 projection updated Dec 1 2015.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -5.3:

[Sleepy]

Apart from a few ensemble members I can't find much speaking for a La Nina 2016. Maybe a weak one late fall?

PDO for October holds the same value as last year.
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
The PDO index is what it is, but I don't like that.

[Lord M Vader]

The PDO-value for October may seem rather low but that's just an illusion. Looking through the JISAO time serie for the 1901-2014 period reveals that the PDO-value for October 2015 was the seventh highest trailing 1926, 1934, 1936, 1957, 1997 and 2014. Another thing that might happen this year is a year with PDO-values exceeding +1,0 during all 12 months, something JISAO never have registered. The years 1987, 1940 and 1936 were closest with 11 of 12 months having a PDO over +1,0. All of these years were during the "long" period of +PDO.

For our current El Niño it seems possible that some reinforcing will be underway by the beginning of next week in the shape of a moderate WWB at around 150^oW.

Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

The attached TAO image shows that the record 2015 Nino 3.4 values were achieved with a much lower change in the WWV than in 1997; which raises the prospect that a strong La Nina many not occur in 2016.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -6.1:

[Sleepy]

LMV, sorry for my, too short as usual, comment. I wasn't thinking they seemed rather low, rather the rest of what you wrote.

We're now up to 22 (23 with November) consecutive months of positive PDO values. When we add more energy to this planet, we should see more action. If we are witnessing a faster than normal flip of the PDO, maybe we shouldn't be surprised?
This is far ahead, but we can almost check 2016 as the next warmest year. As the northern hemisphere warming increases, we might be very close to uncontrollable methane emissions. Methane emissions in lakes, was recently proven to increase exponentially with temperature, in a Swedish study. Loosing the possibilty of control, is what I really don't like.

[AbruptSLR]

In the way of a status report:

The first image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Nov 29 2015 indicating that the current downwelling phase of the EKW is running further into South America, and that the cool water beneath the downwelling EKW is moving upwards near 150W; which could severely weaken the downwelling phase of the EKW unless significant WWB activity begins soon west of the equatorial international dateline.

The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper-Ocean Heat Anom circa Dec 3 2015, showing that this value has dropped to its lowest level since July 2015, which further supports the idea of a weakening EKW.

The third image shows the University at Albany's 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Dec 3 to 10 2015, indicating a meaningful WWB near 150W; which might push more warm water against South America while possibly drawing up more cool water from the depths around 160W.

The fourth image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind and MSLP Map for Dec 3 2015, showing moderate WWB activity in the Eq. Pac. near the International Dateline; and showing that a cyclone in the South Pacific is contributing to temporary low (very negative) values for the daily SOI.

[Csnavywx]

ERSSTv4 readings are in:

Nov 3.4 = 2.35C

SON Tri-monthly = 2.05C

ASO Tri-monthly revised up to 1.8C from 1.7C.

So, as expected, this event has reached official "Super Nino" status. I would expect a peak reading in the OND value -- maybe 2.1 or 2.2C -- right up there with the all-time champ of 97-98.

Kind of concerning to get another extreme event like this so soon after the last one. Makes one wonder if AGW isn't already tilting the dice rolls significantly.

[AbruptSLR]

Kind of concerning to get another extreme event like this so soon after the last one. Makes one wonder if AGW isn't already tilting the dice rolls significantly.

Csnavywx,

Thanks for the very timely report. 

While it is bad enough that global warming (climate change) may likely be making strong El Nino events more frequent; I remind readers that advanced Earth System Model results presented that the Ringberg Conference in 2015 should that projections with more frequent strong El Ninos also had equilibrium climate sensitivity, ECS, values well above 3.5C.

Best,
ASLR

Edit: See the attached image from Andrews et al (2015):

http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/atmosphaere/WCRP_Grand_Challenge_Workshop/Ringberg_2015/Talks/Andrews_23032015.pdf

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving down to -7.4 (and likely will so be back into the El Nino range, below -8.0):

[Steven]

Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) bimonthly value for Oct/Nov 2015 was 2.31:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

Compared to last month, the updated (October-November) MEI has recovered slightly (0.08) to +2.31, but been overtaken by 1982 to now reach the 3rd highest ranking , which is actually only 0.1-0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 at this time of year. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. It seems noteworthy that the 1997 El Niño event displayed a similar 'weak' spell around October as monitored by the MEI, only to recover most of the lost ground in early 1998.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -7.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Compared to last month, the updated (October-November) MEI has recovered slightly (0.08) to +2.31, but been overtaken by 1982 to now reach the 3rd highest ranking , which is actually only 0.1-0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 at this time of year. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. It seems noteworthy that the 1997 El Niño event displayed a similar 'weak' spell around October as monitored by the MEI, only to recover most of the lost ground in early 1998.

The relatively low MEI makes me wonder whether the relatively high ONI values are more due to climate change than to a strong El Nino.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued drifting down to -7.6:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached BoM plot, issued today, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has remanded constant at -7.6 for a second day:

[deep octopus]

The Niño 3.4 region cooled to 2.9 C over the last week, according to NOAA.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 28OCT2015     23.4 2.3     27.7 2.8     29.4 2.7     30.0 1.4
 04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7

Attached is the SST anomaly chart by OSPO for December 7th.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were issued today by the BoM with data through the week ending Dec 6, 2015.  The first image shows that the IOD remains neutral (after being knocked down by the active MJO in the Indian Ocean in the past weeks).  The second, third & fourth images show the Nino 4, 3.4, and 3 indices, respectively, showing that both the Nino 4 & 3.4 indices are down (due to recent weak to moderate WWBs), while the Nino 3 index is slightly up as the current downwelling phase of the EKW is reflecting off of South America.

[AbruptSLR]

The first two images show the BoM's Nino 1 and 2, indices, respectively, for the week ending Dec 6, 2015; both of which have increased as the current downwelling phase of the EKW reflects off of South America.

The third and fourth images were issued today (Dec 7, 2015) by NOAA, with the third image showing that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom is as low as it has been since July 2015; while the fourth images shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution, indicating that the current downwelling phase of the EKW was very large but appears to have peaked.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has resumed its downward drift to -7.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -7.7:

[AbruptSLR]

The first attached images shows NOAA's Eq Pac Subsurface Temperature Anom on Dec 4, 2015, indicating that the downwelling phase of the EKW is bunching-up in the Eastern Pacific, which is now pushing warm water north and south from the equatorial coast of South America (resulting in a current increasing in the Nino 1 & 2 indices), however, the cool subsurface in the 180 to 160W range is not intensifying.  This is confirmed by the second image of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Dec 9, 2015, that shows that the rate of decrease of this anomaly is decreasing (i.e. the increase in cool water is slowing).

To my way of thinking this pattern increases the probability that the PDO will remain positive for many months to come (as warm water slowly moves north along the west coast of North America) and reduces the probability that a strong La Nina will occur in the 2016-17 season.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the linked article, our current Super El Nino increases the chances of the PDO remaining positive:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-monster-el-nino-idUSKBN0TR2BN20151208#WTrxMGvZpzvtObgs.97


Extract: ""When you really have a monster El Nino, it could be enough to flip the PDO into a new phase for a decade or so," said William Patzert, a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. "Keep your eyeballs peeled because maybe we're in for a decadal shift."

…

Now, scientists are beginning to wonder if the 15-year period of relative El Nino calm is coming to a close, marking the start of a warmer, stormier era akin to the 1980s and 90s.
The PDO index has been positive for 22 months through October, the longest such streak since a 26-month positive period between 2002 and 2004. Scientists are not sure if the current streak marks a longer-term turnaround or just a temporary blip like the 2002-2004 streak.
"It's more likely that we'll have a change in phase and we'll remain in positive territory," said Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, noting that while a decadal shift was far from a guarantee, the odds in favor are approximately 2-to-1."

[Sleepy]

Thanks for that link ASLR.
The mean for that streak of 26 months between 2002 and 2004 was 0,836.
The present streak of 22 months is 1,423.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data and the attached plot, both issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -7.7 for a third day:

20151109,20151208,-7.7

[AbruptSLR]

I just wanted to post the attached TAO plot of the WWV vs the Nino 3.4, indicating how different our current Super El Nino event is from the 82-83 and the 97-98 Super El Ninos; which could be due to natural variability, or to climate change, or most likely due to both at the same time.

[A-Team]

scientists are beginning to wonder if the 15-year period of relative El Nino calm is coming to a close, marking the start of a warmer, stormier era akin to the 1980s and 90s.

Meanwhile, here we are in mid-December with absolutely zilch to show for it in the Northern Hemisphere (taken as US southern tier and west coast) and nothing on the horizon out to year end: no clouds, no rain, no wind, no nothing, nada, same old zonal flow of past millenia.

If the hype keeps up but the weather does not cooperate, we may see some niño-scepticism emerge. However I am confident excuses can and will be prepared. In fact, in press accounts, the CYA groundwork has already been laid out: 'we don't have any statistical record for monster el ninos so anything could happen, it's the blob's fault, the winds stopped blowing at the last minute (otherwise we had it nailed), it's being offset by this or that oscillation or trend, surface temps are higher than they would otherwise have been (our models say),...'

Reading back in this forum suggests the main event is happening one day at a time with little or no forecasting skill out farther than a week and that no one has any useful information to offer on the practical consequences for California drought, Oregon snow deficit, Arizona spring floristics, Colorado River catchment etc etc etc.

The risk here is in over-stating our predictive abilities for complex systems. Getting it wrong undermines the public trust on every aspect of coming climate change.

[Csnavywx]

I don't think the rains started in CA during the 97-98 Nino until after December. L.A. for instance, posted average rainfall in Dec, before getting 4" in January and 13.7" (!) in February.

Folks quoting the 82-83 and 97-98 Ninos as analogs are forgetting those little details.

[A-Team]

Folks quoting the 82-83 and 97-98 Ninos as analogs are forgetting those little details.

Right. I'm willing to keep an open mind about Jan and Feb. But here we are again telling the school kids to get under their desks because the Ruskies, hackers, immigrants, Chinese, Mexicans, Irish, football coaches, solar panels, meteorites, triple junction tsunami, San Andreas fault, africanized bees, fire ants, miliaria mosquitoes, nasal amoebas, the Niños could nuke, steal our IDs, take our ag jobs, hoard all the lithium, hook our kids on drugs, steal corporate tax dollars, divert students from academics, damage utility infrastructure, crater, drown, rattle, sting, bite, move north, eat your brain, innundate us any minute.

The LA Times sounded the klaxon horn today with kamikazis-are-coming shipboard language left over from WWII:

With the looming threat from El Niño’s heavy rains approaching, state and federal officials Wednesday emphasized the public’s role in helping prepare for what could be a record-setting wet winter. “This is not a government solution, but a public-private, all-hands-on-deck solution,” said Bob Fenton, administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Administration’s Southwestern district. “It’s important for Californians to take this seriously and understand during these conditions that having a plan [and] supplies is important.”

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-ln-el-nino-planning-fema-20151209-story.html

[Sleepy]

A-Team, you can check this page at IRI.
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/Climate_Impacts/ENSO_PRCP_Prob_TS2p1.html

For us in Europe the higher anomalies are in January-March during El Nino.

England has gotten some rain thanks to Desmond.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cumbria-35057763

Edit, and more to come on Saturday.

[Csnavywx]

Folks quoting the 82-83 and 97-98 Ninos as analogs are forgetting those little details.

Right. I'm willing to keep an open mind about Jan and Feb. But here we are again telling the school kids to get under their desks because the Ruskies, hackers, immigrants, Chinese, Mexicans, Irish, football coaches, solar panels, meteorites, triple junction tsunami, San Andreas fault, africanized bees, fire ants, miliaria mosquitoes, nasal amoebas, the Niños could nuke, steal our IDs, take our ag jobs, hoard all the lithium, hook our kids on drugs, steal corporate tax dollars, divert students from academics, damage utility infrastructure, crater, drown, rattle, sting, bite, move north, eat your brain, innundate us any minute.

The LA Times sounded the klaxon horn today with kamikazis-are-coming shipboard language left over from WWII:

With the looming threat from El Niño’s heavy rains approaching, state and federal officials Wednesday emphasized the public’s role in helping prepare for what could be a record-setting wet winter. “This is not a government solution, but a public-private, all-hands-on-deck solution,” said Bob Fenton, administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Administration’s Southwestern district. “It’s important for Californians to take this seriously and understand during these conditions that having a plan [and] supplies is important.”

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-ln-el-nino-planning-fema-20151209-story.html

Totally agree on the overstating of certainty by the way. Seasonal forecasting has a long way to go yet.

Still, when I heard forecasters say "it's another tough forecast this year" I had to laugh. A Super Nino makes for one of the EASIEST forecasts. If that's tough, you'll never hack it.

[gregb]

As predicted by the CFSv2, the bulk of the precipitation is being directed at the NW in December. We've been experiencing an almost continuous atmospheric river event that has produced incredible rainfall rates across the cascades in storm after storm. The weather over the last couple of days has produced flooding and record high temps in the 60s. Heck, I've been hearing thunder all morning. While one cannot definitively attribute our weather to the current El Nino, I'd say there's probably a pretty high likelihood the two are linked.

And yes, the last several months have brought an endless stream of press reports about promised rain and the potential for disastrous weather in CA. The expectation for heavy rains has been hyped to a ridiculous level, but it is still early yet. Californians should not expect to see an immediate impact - the jet stream may take a month or two to drift south. The heavy rains, if they come, may not arrive until the January/February time frame. If I recall correctly from my skiing days, the Sierras received an incredible amount of snow in March. The ski season at Mammoth was fantastic.

[Sigmetnow]

First Look at 2016 Hurricane Season: Unusually Big Question Marks

Although it’s not presented as a quantitive outlook, the Thursday release (PDF) does include a set of four potential scenarios for 2016, each rated in terms of probabilities that we will see a given amount of seasonally-averaged accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). These scenarios hinge on two factors: how quickly the current El Niño will diminish, and how the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/thermohaline circulation (AMO/THC) will evolve.

1. AMO/THC becomes above average in 2016 and no El Niño impacts remain (resulting in an ACE of ~ 170) – 25% chance
2. AMO/THC is above average in 2016 but some El Niño impacts remain (ACE ~ 120) – 35% chance
3. AMO/THC is below average and no El Niño impacts remain (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance
4. AMO/THC is below average and some El Niño impacts remain (ACE ~ 50) – 20% chance

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/first-look-at-2016-hurricane-season-unusually-big-question-marks

[deep octopus]

Yup, so far, the subtropical jet stream has not shown clear signs of development to date. The last two weeks indicate that the polar jet stream (tending to be indicated by the upper level zonal wind patterns that feature exaggerated easterlies to the south and westerlies to the north) has been positioned along southern Canada. This is helping the drive towards what has been a very mild December in northern and eastern North America.

The subtropical jet stream (generally indicated by the stronger easterlies to the north and strong westerlies to the south) has been virtually nonexistent the last two weeks. Precipitation has been aimless in North America, with wetter conditions in the central plains, but flanked by drier conditions on the coasts (but for British Columbia, Oregon and Washington state.) See attachments.

[Pmt111500]

Well it makes very much sense the effects further out of El Nino region should start only after the peak. After all, it loads the atmosphere with warmth and moisture and the rains can't really start if the atmosphere in the source region is still slowly warming up. It could be said, the El Nino rains develop like your regular afternoon thunderclouds, the difference of course being that the heating element in the case of El Nino is the ocean and not the sunny moist ground as in thunderheads.

After the source of warmth that is El Nino starts to wane, it's only a matter of time when the moisture in troposphere starts to rain out. This would probably happen before equinox as then the sun starts to warm up the remaining water keeping it up. And like it's pretty impossible to predict the route of a specific thundercloud exactly, it's pretty hard to predict where the moisture, CO2 and warmth from El Nino will end up. Close-by connections are of course easier to see but some further out predictions may still be possible.

To most here the previous is likely trivia, but every now and then these basic connections should be spelled out, if not for else then the occasional random reader. 

[AbruptSLR]

Well, snow is now falling in California's Sierra Nevada mountains and storms are backed-up across the Pacific waiting their turn to hit the Golden State.

Also, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -9.0 and thus is back into the El Nino supporting range.

Finally, after tomorrow morning I will be on vacation and I will likely not post anything until Dec 21 2015.

[Sleepy]

Have a nice vacation, ASLR.

[A-Team]

Looking at the 'ensemble' of predicted effects for el nino from all sources, they seem to be all over the map. What sorts of outcomes are excluded?

Can someone furnish an example of a falsifiable prediction of el nino effects on the Northern Hemisphere?

Attribution seems like a very sketchy concept. A rainy December in western Oregon? Good grief, there's been a temperate rain forest from northern California clear up to Juneau AK for thousands of years. Wet winters have been the norm the whole time (cf old coastal redwoods, fossil sitka spruce forests). What does it mean to attribute or not attribute a rainy December to this el nino? Mostly it seems we couldn't do either.

Under climate change, what resolving power have backward-looking statistics to hit a moving target? I am thinking of the 1982/83 event that is always brought up vs 33 years of marked changes in ocean temperature and currents, atmospheric water vapor, temperature, and greenhouse composition, on top of whatever systemic noise.

Would it not be better to skip the mr bayes pronouncements, move the goalposts back to simply monitoring the event, do a bit of reanalysis next fall after the fact, see what lessons are learned?

[Sleepy]

I can't.
We here in Europe and especially Scandinavia are affected by other weather patterns that dominates over the El Nino effects. But there is an effect. But you can't really predict it, only mention it with probabilites.
Every event is different, and we are also watching a moving target thanks to AGW. That's also one reason why I'm not looking to much at corrected nino plumes.

[gregb]

Attribution seems like a very sketchy concept. A rainy December in western Oregon? Good grief, there's been a temperate rain forest from northern California clear up to Juneau AK for thousands of years. Wet winters have been the norm the whole time (cf old coastal redwoods, fossil sitka spruce forests). What does it mean to attribute or not attribute a rainy December to this el nino? Mostly it seems we couldn't do either.

I agree. Yes, we receive our share of rains in the NW every winter (well, maybe not so much last year), but the rainfall totals are less than that of much of the eastern half of the US. We just get light rain or clouds, day after day, for 4-6 months. Regarding my earlier post, the difference this year is that numerous daily and monthly records have fallen since October. Mudslides have closed several key highways just in the last two days. We saw much of the same thing in California during the 83-84 El Nino and most of the W. coast in 97-98.

[James Lovejoy]

The 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -10.2 continuing its drop into the El Nino supporting range.

[Sleepy]

A nice comparison video from BoM between -97 and -15, words not needed.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/video/
Download link preferred.

[Steven]

For a comparison of the current El Niño and the 1997/1998 event, see also:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-el-nino-update-phenomenal-cosmic-powers

Monthly sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific compared to the long-term average for all moderate-to-strong El Niño years since 1950, showing how 2015 (black line) compares to other strong events. ... The ERSSTv4 data set shows that this November was 2.35°C warmer than the November average — tied with November 1997’s 2.33°C ... within the statistical margin of error

Westerly wind bursts (dark pink areas) were much stronger in fall 1997 than they have been this year.

Heat content in the upper few hundred meters of the tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S) ... The maximum heat content anomalies during the peak of the 1997-98 event were as much as 5°C (darkest red), whereas this year, they are 3-4°C, and they cover a much smaller area.

[tombond]

Sleepy and Steven

Thanks for the data comparing the 1997 El Nino to 2015, this information is very informative.

[James Lovejoy]

SOI has continued to drop.  It's now down to -10.8.  The odds are still that el Nino has peaked, but there's a possibility that there's still life in the el Nino.

[deep octopus]

The Nino 3.4 region cooled to 2.8 C over the last week, per NOAA. This central-eastern Pacific region has likely peaked for the cycle, although these very high anomalies should persist for some time.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7

[Bruce Steele]

The PDO index has dropped below 1.00 for the first time since August 2014.  November came in at
0.86.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Steven]

At the AGU Fall Meeting, there was a press conference today about El Niño:

Press Conference: Global impacts of the 2015-16 El Niño

The unfolding 2015-16 El Niño event is already the strongest the world has seen since 1997-98, and people all over the world are feeling or are expected to feel its impact in a variety of ways. Scientists from NASA and NOAA will present findings on El Niño’s global reach as seen from the vantage point of NASA’s Earth observing satellites. Topics to be covered include the destructive fire season in Indonesia and other regions, changes in the natural variation of tropospheric ozone, the impacts of El Niños on atmospheric river events, and whether the current El Niño will bring much-needed drought relief to California and the American West.

Video of the press conference:



Here is a brief summary of the video:

00:00   Introduction
00:30   El Niño and atmospheric rivers
07:40   El Niño and California precipitation
13:50   El Niño impacts on tropospheric ozone
19:00   El Niño impacts on global fires (Indonesia, Amazon etc.)
25:00   Questions from the audience
35:20   End of video

[Sleepy]

Regarding the connections between the PDO, IPO and ENSO this is a useful read from this spring.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/matt.newman/PDO_Revisited_submitted.pdf
I'll just quote a small part of the concluding remarks and attach the image.

The PDO is now a well-established climate index, frequently used in correlation analyses to suggest physical linkage between a particular variable of interest and North Pacific Ocean variability. As summarized in Fig. 14, the PDO represents not a single phenomenon but rather a combination of processes that span the Tropics and extratropics. It is therefore important to distinguish climate impacts correlated with the PDO from climate impacts that are predictable by the PDO.

As for papers regarding the teleconnections in Europe and Scandinavia (my primary interest), this is a nice collection.
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/papers-on-enso-effects-in-europe/
They start with the papers by Fraedrich in the early nineties and those conclusions are still beeing referred to today, like in this paper.
http://scitechconnect.elsevier.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/El-Nino.pdf
Other things as e.g. the QBO are discussed there as well.

As for Europe, and as this El Nino has reached it's peak, we will soon start to see the real effects from this event.

For the longer perspective, I've been watching the uncorrected CFSv2 PDFs for a while and there has been som weird member runs going on, some of them have actually been trending upwards. Sure, this is the erroneous territory for those models, and/but the Nino4 region is still quite warm.
I'll just use the Nino4 as an example fom CFSv2.
Also attached is the latest Nino4 from ECMWF. The rest from ECMWF here.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?public_date=201405&nino_area=3.4&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=plumes&time=2015120100,0,2015120100&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes

Whatever comes out of this, there's not much evidence for a La Nina, yet. Maybe a weak one later on. Or maybe nothing...