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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (September mid month update, includes 2017 minimum volume)  (Read 600230 times)

magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1750 on: May 26, 2017, 10:15:23 PM »
what @FOOTW said and additionally the relatively thick and high amount of ice, melting just north of the regions will certainly cool the ocean more than last years much less ice. after all there is a reason why we put ice into our drinks to keep them cool LOL
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Cook

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1751 on: May 28, 2017, 09:33:12 PM »
what @FOOTW said and additionally the relatively thick and high amount of ice, melting just north of the regions will certainly cool the ocean more than last years much less ice. after all there is a reason why we put ice into our drinks to keep them cool LOL

Melting may not actually result in net cooling, but serve to balance the warming due to insolation and advection. The insolation is very strong at this time of year. Once the ice is gone, look out...
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 10:33:51 PM by Cook »

magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1752 on: May 28, 2017, 10:57:20 PM »
yes exactly, once the ice is gone, but right now it's exactly not gone, on the contrary, there is more ice volume wise in that region than in provious years, (currently) which i was referring to, while to make it again clear, once it's gone, i agree but it takes a bit longer this season because there is more of it and if the winds and currents continue to move more of that very mobile ice from the pacific and CAA towards the atlantic side it cold even take much longer.

melting ice is ALWAYS keeping the water in which it is swimming cool, just imagine a long-drink, same effect, not much that could alter that (as long as it's there LOL)
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1753 on: May 28, 2017, 11:51:16 PM »
There is much thinner ice in the Beaufort sea this year than last. Although the ice has retreated less to date this year than last, expect the ocean there to really soak up the heat over the next few weeks as the ice blows out and melts out.

The ice thickness patterns this year are in synch with the SST anomalies and the planetary wave number 5 pattern. The is a situation where there's a good chance of the wave pattern locking in for June and July.

magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1754 on: May 29, 2017, 05:43:28 PM »
There is much thinner ice in the Beaufort sea this year than last. Although the ice has retreated less to date this year than last, expect the ocean there to really soak up the heat over the next few weeks as the ice blows out and melts out.

The ice thickness patterns this year are in synch with the SST anomalies and the planetary wave number 5 pattern. The is a situation where there's a good chance of the wave pattern locking in for June and July.

yeah you are correct while i did unprecisely refer to the entire atlantic side, reason is that the thick ice  north-west of svalbard will eventually move in and further delay the melting due to the mentioned effect. as is said, i was not precise enough, hence my bad, sorry.
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magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1755 on: May 29, 2017, 06:27:39 PM »
There is much thinner ice in the Beaufort sea this year than last. Although the ice has retreated less to date this year than last, expect the ocean there to really soak up the heat over the next few weeks as the ice blows out and melts out.

The ice thickness patterns this year are in synch with the SST anomalies and the planetary wave number 5 pattern. The is a situation where there's a good chance of the wave pattern locking in for June and July.

yeah you are correct while i did unprecisely refer to the entire atlantic side, reason is that the thick ice  north-west of svalbard will eventually move in and further delay the melting due to the mentioned effect. as is said, i was not precise enough, hence my bad, sorry.

@Fish Out Of The Water

to further clarify i decided to add the below image, showing thickness anomalies, just to illustrate what and where i meant with "thicker ice", ice that has been and at times is still moving towards the atlantic and hence will, due to it's relatively high volume, cool the water for some time to come and eventually melt but as well, eventually delay significant reduction in extent in that part of the arctic.

it's a bit more to the nort tho north-north west side than just north-west but i think it's clear now what i was referring to.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1756 on: May 29, 2017, 08:08:28 PM »
You're right. There's a large volume of ice that's going to add to the cold fresh melt water on the east coast of Greenland. The combination of melting sea ice and melting Greenland glaciers has been generating a cold pool over the past decade in the far north Atlantic according to Prof. Stephan Rahmstorf. The theory is that the fresh water is reducing the salinity of the water in the overturning circulation so it has to get very cold to get dense enough to sink.

He has a good point, doesn't he?

That thickness map does not give me a good feeling. It bodes ill for August and September.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1757 on: May 29, 2017, 09:29:57 PM »
Have in mind that this anomaly on the graph is from april. We're still waiting for the may-update. The dark red blotch could already have moved into the death zone.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1758 on: May 29, 2017, 09:55:38 PM »
You're right. There's a large volume of ice that's going to add to the cold fresh melt water on the east coast of Greenland. The combination of melting sea ice and melting Greenland glaciers has been generating a cold pool over the past decade in the far north Atlantic according to Prof. Stephan Rahmstorf. The theory is that the fresh water is reducing the salinity of the water in the overturning circulation so it has to get very cold to get dense enough to sink.
....
The water in the cold pool in the north Atlantic has no way of getting colder, the water which comes out of the Arctic and which is dense enough to sink to the bottom of the Atlantic is the brine left behind when sea water freezes into much less salty sea ice. This takes place where ice forms in the winter and has to sink through the warmer intermediate water. Peter Wadhams describes observations of such a (downward) chimney of cold salty water in the Odden ice tongue in his book "A farewell to ice".
The Odden ice tongue no longer happens but as long as the volume of ice frozen in winter is not reduced the process continues. This water flows at the bottom of Fram strait where it is deepest.

Tigertown

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1759 on: May 30, 2017, 05:41:35 AM »
From what we know now, volume is on a downward trend. Wipneus gave us an educated ballpark guess for day 142 of this year, about the 22nd of May from my calculations. We should have more exact figures in a few days. The JAXA volume graph, also by Wipneus shows a steep drop over the last week. I would say, by eyeball alone, it was over a 1,000 km3 drop. So, gauging by this, I am  guessing we will be around 18,000 km3 PIOMAS-wise by June 1st, which is lower than the 19.2k km3 of 2016. Not a huge difference, except that 2016 was low compared to previous years for day of year. I really think the one for next month will be the one to watch, and the following month, of course.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1760 on: May 30, 2017, 05:46:57 AM »
That volume number is important, which when combined with larger area and extent numbers indicates thickness is at least 5 possibly as much as 10% lower overall than 2016.

That's extraordinarily dangerous.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1761 on: May 30, 2017, 06:45:27 AM »
From what we know now, volume is on a downward trend. Wipneus gave us an educated ballpark guess for day 142 of this year, about the 22nd of May from my calculations. We should have more exact figures in a few days. The JAXA volume graph, also by Wipneus shows a steep drop over the last week. I would say, by eyeball alone, it was over a 1,000 km3 drop. So, gauging by this, I am  guessing we will be around 18,000 km3 PIOMAS-wise by June 1st, which is lower than the 19.2k km3 of 2016. Not a huge difference, except that 2016 was low compared to previous years for day of year. I really think the one for next month will be the one to watch, and the following month, of course.
In the last ten years, the drop from day 142 to day 152 averaged 1221 km3. A 1400+ drop happened twice. So 18200 km3 would be "normal", with 18400 also possible given the slow pace up to day 142. If we do get to 18000 km3 it will signify an important acceleration.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1762 on: May 30, 2017, 07:44:31 AM »
@oren
Let me clarify myself just a little. For 2016, June first was 19.201k rather than day 142 of that year.
For 2015, May 31 was 21.496k, and 2014, on May 31 was 20.288k, and 2013, May 31 being 19.087k km3. All these dates are around day 150(+/-), rather than day 142 or so of the year. My guestimate was for the value of PIOMAS going into June or ending May 2017, and if it is close at all will be lower than previous years. The actual value is what I was comparing, rather than the rates for any time period, though I do see the merit of doing that, now that you mentioned it.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg1562.html#msg1562
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 07:51:37 AM by Tigertown »

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1763 on: May 30, 2017, 09:25:53 AM »
Daily gice updated again. Latest day now 145 , the volume calculated from it has dropped to 19.0 [1000km3].

Here is the sequence for May 1-25:

array([ 20.63,  20.62,  20.61,  20.58,  20.57,  20.55,  20.51,  20.42,
        20.38,  20.33,  20.32,  20.25,  20.22,  20.19,  20.07,  20.  ,
        19.88,  19.8 ,  19.69,  19.6 ,  19.51,  19.39,  19.26,  19.15,
        19.01])

seaicesailor

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1764 on: May 30, 2017, 10:48:08 AM »
So it may get really close to 18k, because there is an accelerating trend
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 10:53:20 AM by seaicesailor »

Jim Pettit

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1765 on: May 30, 2017, 02:36:57 PM »
Daily gice updated again. Latest day now 145 , the volume calculated from it has dropped to 19.0 [1000km3].

Here is the sequence for May 1-25:

array([ 20.63,  20.62,  20.61,  20.58,  20.57,  20.55,  20.51,  20.42,
        20.38,  20.33,  20.32,  20.25,  20.22,  20.19,  20.07,  20.  ,
        19.88,  19.8 ,  19.69,  19.6 ,  19.51,  19.39,  19.26,  19.15,
        19.01])


If these numbers are correct--and when have they been wrong?--they represent a further narrowing of the separation between 2017 and all previous years, closing to within just over one thousand cubic kilometers of 2016. Of course, that is still a massive amount, a solid ice cube more than 10 kilometers on a side. And that still leaves 2017 in the pole position, and situated to set a new low minimum record. A lot will--obviously--be decided over the next several weeks.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1766 on: May 30, 2017, 03:52:48 PM »
The drop in Jaxa AMSR2 volume over the last 20(?) days is impressive.
But no substitute fro the monthly PIOMAS analysis.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1767 on: May 30, 2017, 04:05:21 PM »
In 2016 a powerful sudden stratospheric warming at winter's end led to strong subsidence over the Arctic in April and May. The strong subsidence built up the Beaufort high to exceptional strength and the Beaufort ice took an unprecedented beating for so early in the year. However, in June and July the temperature anomalies cooled as clouds moved in. This year the polar vortex faded away gently and subsidence was been weak in May.

However, NH westerlies are stronger than normal now and Rossby waves continue to kick up ridges around the pole. The NH jet stream has enough momentum to continue whipping around the Arctic kicking up ridges near the pole for the next 6 weeks. Now, I admit, that the center of circulation could shift towards northern Canada or some other pattern, but the tendency in the NH circulation appears to be for subsidence and high pressure near the N pole for the next 6 weeks.

There are large scale patterns in the summer NH circulation that may make the summer weather somewhat predictable, albeit with low confidence. And those patterns appear to me to be unfavorable for sea ice for the next 6 weeks.

The 5 wave pattern we see in the 1 to 7 day forecast is semi-stable because is is anchored by major boundaries including Asia/Pacific ocean, America/Atlantic ocean, Greeenland/subpolar seas and the boundary in the Arctic between ice and water.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1768 on: May 30, 2017, 04:27:39 PM »
If these numbers are correct--and when have they been wrong?--they represent a further narrowing of the separation between 2017 and all previous years, closing to within just over one thousand cubic kilometers of 2016. Of course, that is still a massive amount, a solid ice cube more than 10 kilometers on a side. And that still leaves 2017 in the pole position, and situated to set a new low minimum record. A lot will--obviously--be decided over the next several weeks.
Your comment got me to zoom in on the race between 2017 and the other contenders. The lead  (right-hand scale) shrank significantly over the month but now shows signs of temporary stabilization.

Next on my wish list is analyzing regional volume compared to 2016/2012, to tease out more information (if I can crack the PIOMAS binary files). 2017 must have a higher volume in the Barents, and probably a larger lead in the arctic basin itself.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1769 on: May 30, 2017, 04:47:34 PM »
I think the stabilization was related to the NH snow extent (and volume) which was much less in May 2016 than May 2017. The albedo of the snow this year cooled the Arctic this May compared to last year. But the snow cover also helped keep the NH jet stream relatively strong. Storms over N Eurasia are now transporting heat towards the Arctic ocean.

I suspect that the stabilization is over. Winds and waves are obliterating ice on the Atlantic margin now. There's lots of Atlantic heat that will mix upwards as storms form over the open water of the Barents sea. Wip's latest graphs suggest that rapid volume loss is beginning.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1770 on: May 30, 2017, 05:55:23 PM »
Given the numbers Wipneus presented, I think a careful extrapolation of the volume for May 31 should be 18,4k m3.

Tigertown

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1771 on: May 30, 2017, 06:15:15 PM »
Given the numbers Wipneus presented, I think a careful extrapolation of the volume for May 31 should be 18,4k m3.
That sounds about right. I think that I came in a little low, depending too much on JAXA numbers.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1772 on: May 30, 2017, 07:27:40 PM »
Given the numbers Wipneus presented, I think a careful extrapolation of the volume for May 31 should be 18,4k m3.

What's thrilling is not so much your careful volume estimate - it's the accelerating curve of the graph. If it goes on that way, we'll see dramatic drops next month of all values: Area, Extent & Volumen.

jai mitchell

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1773 on: May 30, 2017, 07:52:13 PM »
using the projections the comparison to the Wipneus generated monthly average PIOMAS values falls right in line with previous projections at about  19.5  So, not much to see here in my book, (except for the fact that it is a new record low for May.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1774 on: May 30, 2017, 10:28:07 PM »
Given the numbers Wipneus presented, I think a careful extrapolation of the volume for May 31 should be 18,4k m3.

I'll guess a bit lower than that. Were 2017 to follow the average end-of-May loss seen over the past ten years, May 31 would see 18.269 km3 (drawn from a range from 17.946 [2012] to 18.444 [2008].)

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1775 on: May 30, 2017, 10:34:36 PM »
Given the numbers Wipneus presented, I think a careful extrapolation of the volume for May 31 should be 18,4k m3.

I'll guess a bit lower than that. Were 2017 to follow the average end-of-May loss seen over the past ten years, May 31 would see 18.269 km3 (drawn from a range from 17.946 [2012] to 18.444 [2008].)
I'm also guessing 18.2-18.3 based on extrapolating losses of 0.12-0.13 per day. Also considering that extent/area have stopped their "stall" in the last few days.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1776 on: May 30, 2017, 10:42:31 PM »
JP and Oren: It can certainly be even lower than 18,4k but 18,4k felt like a conservative extrapolation.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1777 on: May 30, 2017, 10:44:36 PM »
LMV - understood. Just trying to pass the time til the next update...

Jim Pettit

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1778 on: June 03, 2017, 01:40:46 AM »
May numbers are hot off the press. As expected, the gap between 2017 and previous years narrowed, but it's still there:



And the volume projection still looks fairly, er, interesting:



Full images tomorrow...

Tigertown

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1779 on: June 03, 2017, 02:04:24 AM »
I guess 18,800 km3 is the Average for May '17.
During May, Arctic sea ice volume began to decline from its annual maximum for 2017. The volume maximum occurs one month later than the extent maximum because some areas continue to thicken while the extent begins to recede.  Arctic sea ice volume through May 2017 continued substantially below prior years. May 2017 sea ice  volume was 18,800 km3 ,  1200 km3 below the previous record from  May in 2016.   The low sea ice volume results of anomalously high temperatures throughout the Arctic for November through January discussed here and here.  May  volume was 39% below the maximum May ice volume in 1979,  27% below the 1979-2016 mean, and more than 1.3 standard deviations below the long term trend line.


http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

gregcharles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1780 on: June 03, 2017, 02:47:51 AM »
Something's not adding up. Over at Juan's When will be break PIOMAS 2012 September record? thread, he shows the May 2016 average was 21.03 thousand km3, which is ~2200 km3 more than 18.8, not 1200. Is that number wrong, or am I comparing the wrong things?

Andreas T

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1781 on: June 03, 2017, 03:54:36 AM »
the figure of 18.800 is certainly not the average for May. Wipneus showed daily values (from PIOMAS) which dropped to 19.000 on the 25th from a high of 20.630, they would have to drop hugely to get an average that low from an extra 6 days. The graph on the PIOMAS site also shows the marker for monthly average higher.
 http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/  fig. 2
I thought it would be the daily value for the end of May but looking at the graph it looks lower, more in line with the extrapolation by LMV

19.800 would seem a reasonable guess for May average and would fit the statement of 1200 below 2016, could it be a typo?
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 04:04:58 AM by Andreas T »

Tigertown

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1782 on: June 03, 2017, 04:07:29 AM »
@gregcharles
The number May of 2016 ended with was 19.2k km3. The average was close to 21k km3. I don't think this site is even trying at all to say there is a 1200 km3 difference in the averages for these two Mays, but is the difference in the ending numbers or
1200 km3 below the previous record from  May in 2016
, the record referring to the low ending point. The placement of their wording about the average and the difference low ending points in back to back sentences within the same paragraph can be misleading, though I am sure is accidental. If I recall correctly, this is not exactly the first time they have done so.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 04:12:57 AM by Tigertown »

Juan C. García

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1783 on: June 03, 2017, 05:14:37 AM »
Something's not adding up. Over at Juan's When will be break PIOMAS 2012 September record? thread, he shows the May 2016 average was 21.03 thousand km3, which is ~2200 km3 more than 18.8, not 1200. Is that number wrong, or am I comparing the wrong things?


You are right. They haven't published the exact figure, but 21.026 - 18.800 (rounded) =  2,226 km3.

Fill the second questionnaire to have the official numbers. I just copy/paste, with some formating.

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

So the PIOMAS comment of "1200 km3 below the previous record from  May in 2016" seems wrong...
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 05:22:33 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gregcharles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1784 on: June 03, 2017, 05:36:57 AM »
Hmm, Jim's graphs are showing something near to 18 for the end of May, and the text that Tigertown quoted, while not entirely clear, seems to say 18.8 applies to May 2017 in general, not just the last day.

I guess I'll just wait until Neven's blog post clears it all up.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1785 on: June 03, 2017, 08:31:16 AM »
I updated my graphics, see the top post

Attached my year-by-year anomaly graph showing the strong negative anomaly dropping further in May. Annual is already third lowest after 2011 and 2012.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1786 on: June 03, 2017, 08:34:10 AM »
Gap with 2012 (lowest September minimum ever) did narrow somewhat.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1787 on: June 03, 2017, 08:52:33 AM »
The gridded thickness animation of May 2017. The situation in the Fram is crazy.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1788 on: June 03, 2017, 09:17:27 AM »
"Race to the bottom" update. 2016 is seen stalling toward the end of May, while 2017 managed to accelerate and keep up with 2012's rate, maintaining the gap.

bairgon

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1789 on: June 03, 2017, 09:56:37 AM »
The gridded thickness animation of May 2017. The situation in the Fram is crazy.

And note the 4m stretch to the north of Greenland. Near the end of the animation you can see it start to disappear as it prepares to be flushed down Nares.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1790 on: June 03, 2017, 10:17:31 AM »
A look at June, where 2016 continued to stall while 2012 accelerated again mid-month. Looking at June losses over the past 10 years, I'd say there's a 75% chance of 2017 still being in the lead at end-June. But with an average loss of 6.13 when excluding 2012, the gap is "expected" to narrow to 0.3 km3, all without taking into account weather, state of the ice, Beaufort's sub-2m thickness, Nares export, Fram blob on its march to hell, etc.
Of course, actual 2017 trajectory is anybody's guess. Personally I expect an above-average June loss.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1791 on: June 03, 2017, 10:35:01 AM »
"Race to the bottom" update. 2016 is seen stalling toward the end of May, while 2017 managed to accelerate and keep up with 2012's rate, maintaining the gap.

Indeed. Although loss during the first half of May was 3rd lowest since 2007 (behind 2007 and 2008), it picked up in the second half and was third highest since 2007 (after 2012 and 2010).

And the way the first half of June is shaping up, it could stay abreast with 2010 and 2012...  :(
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Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1792 on: June 03, 2017, 10:35:48 AM »
I'm going to do some physical work outside in the garden, but then I'll post the latest PIOMAS update on the ASIB.
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A-Team

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1793 on: June 03, 2017, 10:41:53 AM »
Going forward, I don't believe the mid-Sept 2017 state envisioned below is a physically stable configuration. Instead, the diminished remaining ice enters a 'danger zone' in late summer during which it is vulnerable to catastrophic dispersion, melt, and export from mere 'natural variation' (defined as late season wind and current conditions seen in other recent years).

Even with multi-year ice gone and further Atlantification, the Arctic Ocean will still freeze over in late winter. However this new first-year ice will not have time to thicken adequately nor to complete the process of brine exclusion, leaving it mechanically weak and prone to complete melt-out by early summer.

Initially, Arctic amplification (resulting in late season open water with high absorbance) is a poor match with the timing of solar energy peak input, but the overlap will improve in coming years. However open water in Sep-Oct-Nov is already important to irrevocable de-stratification and heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere.

While little studied -- perhaps a dozen papers to date -- under the misconception of 2050-2100 onset of Arctic sea ice disappearance, there will be severe consequences to mid-latitude and indeed global weather, and rapid escalation of climate change.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 05:52:26 PM by A-Team »

crandles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1794 on: June 03, 2017, 10:58:37 AM »
Sorry for the repetition of others posts

Latest value: 2017-5-31 18.11

2016 151  19.321
2011 151  19.483
2012 151  19.591

so at end of month we are 1.211 below previous lowest 2016 which explains 1200 km3 part of

Arctic sea ice volume through May 2017 continued substantially below prior years. May 2017 sea ice  volume was 18,800 km3 ,  1200 km3 below the previous record from  May in 2016.

from http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

Month started at 20.64 and given the downward acceleration I would expect average to be more than (20.64+18.11)/2=19.375 and indeed I calculate May average (of daily values) to be 19.81. So 18,800km3 is neither end value nor average and remains a mystery to me.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1795 on: June 03, 2017, 11:27:21 AM »
Going forward, I don't believe the mid-Sept 2017 state envisioned below is a physically stable configuration. Instead, the diminished remaining ice enters a 'danger zone' in late summer in which it is vulnerable to catastrophic dispersion, melt, and export from mere 'natural variation' (defined as late season wind and current conditions seen in other recent years).

Initially, Arctic amplification (resulting in late season open water with high absorbance) is a poor match with the timing of solar energy peak input, but the overlap will improve in coming years. Open water in Sep-Oct-Nov is already important to heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere.

While that has been little studied -- perhaps a dozen papers to date -- under the misconception of  2050-2100 onset of Arctic sea ice disappearance, there will be severe consequences to mid-latitude and indeed global weather and escalation of climate change rapidity.
A-Team, you were sorely missed, with your jaw-dropping graphics and everything.

Month started at 20.64 and given the downward acceleration I would expect average to be more than (20.64+18.11)/2=19.375 and indeed I calculate May average (of daily values) to be 19.81. So 18,800km3 is neither end value nor average and remains a mystery to me.
I have a feeling 18,800 meant to be 19.800

Ice Shieldz

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1796 on: June 03, 2017, 11:49:52 AM »
@ Oren - In your 'race to the bottom', May 2017 volume has a disturbing nonlinear slope to it, kinda like it's going over an edge.

@ A-Team - I'm sure i won't be the last to chime in, it's wonderful to see you posting again, you were missed!

Here's a couple mashups of Wipneus' outstanding thickness charts.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 12:03:29 PM by Ice Shieldz »

crandles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1797 on: June 03, 2017, 11:50:32 AM »
Great to see you back A-Team.  :)

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1798 on: June 03, 2017, 12:23:15 PM »
Here's a couple mashups of Wipneus' outstanding thickness charts.
Your second animation clearly shows why 2016 stalled in June.  Not much easy-to-melt ice.
Can you make another one comparing 2012 to 2017?
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 04:52:55 PM by oren »

Nightvid Cole

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1799 on: June 03, 2017, 03:50:23 PM »
So it may get really close to 18k, because there is an accelerating trend

Perhaps you did not intend the x-axis label "MayDay" to contain the subconscious connotation of "doom", or did you?   ;)