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jdallen

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #50 on: August 18, 2015, 07:23:20 AM »
It would be useful to know if there has been a previous correlation between significant NH wildfires and smoke coverage and late minimum in arctic melt....

It will also be interesting to watch this year as it all leads to the end of the season.  Especially for anything which looks odd late season.

What I do wonder is how they are going to look next year if this is just the opening bars of a monster El Nino.  Because, if I remember correctly, we'll see a dry winter with low snow cover and an early spring melt back in that case.

A perfect storm for wildfires and Arctic melt together.
The take-away from El Nino is not clear from what I can tell.  What *has* been typical in the past is *significantly* increased rainfall in southern and central California... from Famine to "Gluttony" in a quick reversal.  The heat suggests that it won't be snowfall, which means rain, floods, mudslides and other unpleasant outcomes.

What El Nino does to the Arctic I'm less clear on.  If the moisture stays south, yes, that suggests less snow cover.  Whether than translates into less snow cover on the pack this winter is a different question.  If we have more heat, some recent papers have suggested pretty clearly that translates into more moisture at high latitudes, and more snow cover on the ice.  Snow early on is *not* good for ice generation, as it's a marvelous insulator.  (Hope for low precipitation and clear skies...).

If we do see a lot of heat and moisture export into the Arctic, that has very bad implications for the Maxima.  H2O is an excellent GHG, and on top of that, when it does exit the atmosphere, it will dump a lot of energy into it, which is energy that won't be exiting the Arctic ocean.

<So> diversion aside, snow won't be a good sign for next season, and this season looks to becoming as bad as we've had for the last few years.  The only think helping us may be, a lot of low hanging fruit has already burnt up...
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jdallen

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #51 on: August 24, 2015, 05:48:02 AM »
Siberia is still burning, or perhaps, burning more?

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jdallen

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jdallen

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silkman

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #54 on: August 24, 2015, 09:24:58 AM »
The frightening fact is that JDA's two stories from the Siberian Times are datelined 11 days apart.

These wildfires seem to be totally out of control and are clearly threatening the future of a critical but fragile, globally significant heritage site.

Similar fires have been burning in the area all summer. If this isn't a wake up call for those with their heads in the sand about the threat to our Boreal forests I don't know what is!

1rover1

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #55 on: August 25, 2015, 07:18:02 AM »
The Siberian wildfires are in the boreal forest, an environment that needs wildfire to maintain itself, so from that perspective, whether ignited by man or lightning, they are a natural event to a point.  But the wildfire fighting community has a bit of a problem; they got too good at it for their own good.  Since the end of WWII they got really good at fighting wildfires, finding them early, hitting them hard, using helicopters, air tankers, heavy equipment, and gas powered pumps.   Or at least they got really good at fighting the low intensity wildfires who's spread and behaviour were already somewhat limited by small amounts of forest fuel loading in the understory. 

On the parts of the landscape with timber we used logging to, in some respects, emulate wildfire.  It removes the fuels, we re-establish the trees and keep the forest young.  But there are many parts of the landscape, the black spruce bogs, slow growing soil types, steep slopes, sensitive areas, parks, and residential subdivisions in the forest, where, through firefighting, we almost eliminated fire, the landscape.  This, in an ecosystem, that relies on fire as a natural disturbance, as it's only natural method to replenish itself.   Over this last 70 years the amount of fuels on the landscape has been changing, increasing, well beyond what might be within the natural range of variability. 

So now, many of our wildfires in the boreal forest are driven by a much higher fuel loading than they saw before.  The network, or patchwork, of small or low intensity wildfires is gone from the landscape, and we experience the mega fire phenomenon.  (Google mega fire and you get lots of good reading).   These fuel driven mega fires are further complicated by changes in the weather.  Wildfire behaviour is incredibly sensitive to relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and fuel type, and all of these are sensitive to climate change. 

One small example of a seemingly minor weather change with big implications.  The temperature of our overnight lows seem to be changing, increasing, although our daytime high temps seem less changed, (according to a few small local data sets we looked at, nothing publishable).  But this one small change means more frost free days, earlier snow melt in spring, less relative humidity recovery (increase) overnight, a longer effective wildfire burning period during the day,  grass curing earlier in the season so more cured (flammable) grass,  and I’m sure a whole number of more complications.

solartim27

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #56 on: August 25, 2015, 08:09:00 AM »
Any idea if Russia is having problems with the beetles like we have in the US?  They have been able to survive over the winter now, so the population has been exploding.
http://www.livescience.com/18797-beetle-outbreaks-forests-carbon-nsf-bts.html
FNORD

jdallen

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #57 on: August 25, 2015, 08:44:09 AM »
The Siberian wildfires are in the boreal forest, an environment that needs wildfire to maintain itself, so from that perspective, whether ignited by man or lightning, they are a natural event to a point.  But the wildfire fighting community has a bit of a problem; they got too good at it for their own good.  Since the end of WWII they got really good at fighting wildfires, finding them early, hitting them hard, using helicopters, air tankers, heavy equipment, and gas powered pumps.   Or at least they got really good at fighting the low intensity wildfires who's spread and behaviour were already somewhat limited by small amounts of forest fuel loading in the understory. 

On the parts of the landscape with timber we used logging to, in some respects, emulate wildfire.  It removes the fuels, we re-establish the trees and keep the forest young.  But there are many parts of the landscape, the black spruce bogs, slow growing soil types, steep slopes, sensitive areas, parks, and residential subdivisions in the forest, where, through firefighting, we almost eliminated fire, the landscape.  This, in an ecosystem, that relies on fire as a natural disturbance, as it's only natural method to replenish itself.   Over this last 70 years the amount of fuels on the landscape has been changing, increasing, well beyond what might be within the natural range of variability. 

So now, many of our wildfires in the boreal forest are driven by a much higher fuel loading than they saw before.  The network, or patchwork, of small or low intensity wildfires is gone from the landscape, and we experience the mega fire phenomenon.  (Google mega fire and you get lots of good reading).   These fuel driven mega fires are further complicated by changes in the weather.  Wildfire behaviour is incredibly sensitive to relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and fuel type, and all of these are sensitive to climate change. 

One small example of a seemingly minor weather change with big implications.  The temperature of our overnight lows seem to be changing, increasing, although our daytime high temps seem less changed, (according to a few small local data sets we looked at, nothing publishable).  But this one small change means more frost free days, earlier snow melt in spring, less relative humidity recovery (increase) overnight, a longer effective wildfire burning period during the day,  grass curing earlier in the season so more cured (flammable) grass,  and I’m sure a whole number of more complications.

That might be true, in this country, with the legacy of Gifford Pinochot.  However, I don't think the problems in Siberia are the result of over-management of fires.  Bluntly, Russia, and the Soviet Union before it had neither the incentive nor the resources to do anything to control wildfires.

What we are seeing around Baikal and elsewhere is something different.

Even in North America, what's happening in long since no longer the consequence of bad forestry policies; far too much of those badly managed forests have already burned.  We are on to something else.
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Rick Aster

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #58 on: September 09, 2015, 06:32:29 PM »
CBC News talks to Kevin Trenberth about the climate getting drier in the far north, focusing especially on the Northwest Territories.

Northern Canada will keep getting drier as temperatures rise, says scientist http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/northern-canada-will-keep-getting-drier-as-temperatures-rise-says-scientist-1.3220228

vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #59 on: July 19, 2019, 05:05:31 PM »
Satellite Images Show Vast Swaths of the Arctic On Fire
https://earther.gizmodo.com/satellite-images-show-vast-swaths-of-the-arctic-on-fire-1836500468


Wildfires in Batagay in central Siberia and the region’s Lena River.

Vast stretches of Earth’s northern latitudes are on fire right now. Hot weather has engulfed a huge portion of the Arctic, from Alaska to Greenland to Siberia. That’s helped create conditions ripe for wildfires, including some truly massive ones burning in remote parts of the region that are being seen by satellites.


Fires and smoke along Siberia’s Lena River.

https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse
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vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #60 on: October 25, 2021, 09:36:06 PM »
New Study Finds Black Spruce Trees Struggling to Regenerate Amid More Frequent Arctic Fires
https://phys.org/news/2021-10-black-spruce-trees-struggling-regenerate.html

A new study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), finds that black spruce trees—a key species on the boreal landscape for millennia—are losing their resilience and capacity to regenerate in the face of warming temperatures and increasingly frequent Arctic wildfires. A continuation of this trend could result in a landscape-wide ecological shift that would have a complex and rippling impact on the region, including an acceleration in permafrost thaw, and a loss of valuable biodiversity.

In boreal North America, the thick, spongy soils on which black spruce grows are made of peat moss and lichens that retain moisture very well but when they do dry out are highly flammable. Black spruce rely on fires for regeneration—their cones open up in the heat and drop seeds onto the charred organic soil—but this latest study indicates that more severe fires that burn deeper into these peat soils are leading to a short-circuit of the regeneration process.

In synthesizing data from more than 1500 fire-disturbed sites, researchers found that black spruce's ability to regenerate after fire dropped at 38% of sites and failed completely 18% of the time—numbers never before seen in a species evolved to thrive after fire. Significant shifts in wildfire regimes are pushing black spruce forests to a tipping point, beyond which the iconic species may lose its place as the dominant tree species in boreal North America.

"This trend is especially alarming given its potential impact on Arctic carbon storage," said Dr. Brendan Rogers, Associate Scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center and study co-author. "In many parts of the boreal region, the mossy soil layers that promote black spruce regeneration also insulate permafrost. As fires increase and these forests dry out, however, loss of black spruce forests could accelerate permafrost thaw and trigger a warming feedback loop, pushing black spruce to its tipping point and facilitating the release of massive amounts of carbon from the permafrost into the atmosphere."



... "As climate change continues to push these systems to an ever drier state, these tipping points are more likely to be reached, with devastating impacts on the boreal biome and the rest of the world."

Increasing fire and the decline of fire adapted black spruce in the boreal forest, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021)
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/45/e2024872118
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vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #61 on: April 24, 2022, 08:35:04 PM »
Wildfires have been left burning unchecked in Siberia because the Russian miliary units that usually deal with them have been relocated to fight in Ukraine.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/siberian-wildfires-climate-crisis-russia-b2063988.html?amp

Vast blazes have become an increasingly common occurrence in the region from spring to autumn

But this year several of the fires are said to have been left burning because many of the military units which are responsible for tackling them have been dispatched to help with the Ukraine invasion.

The revelation comes three days after The Independent reported a monster blaze in the Tyumen region of Western Siberia: a shocking video showed a smoke-filled orange sky and a family of elk fleeing the carnage.

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/russia-siberia-wildfires-smoke-omsk-b2061003.html

Jessica McCarty, a climate researcher at the Miami University of Ohio, told the Axios website: “Because the largest fires often need military aircraft to spot and verify the satellite or community reports, [and to] support and fight in Siberia, it is questionable that this capacity will even be available during the summer if the war continues.

"So, either there will be more fires ... or these aircraft and personnel will be taken away from the western front and brought to Siberia."


Greenpeace Russia has said the current wildfire area in the country was already double that of April 2021.

The news is especially concerning because wildfires are part of a dangerous feedback loop in Siberia, which sits within the Arctic Circle.

The fires thaw permafrost, which releases carbon dioxide and methane emissions into the atmosphere. Methane in particular has particularly potent greenhouse heating impacts in the short-term.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #62 on: April 28, 2022, 12:53:14 AM »
Wildfires in US, Canadian Boreal Forests Could Release Sizable Amount of Remaining Global Carbon Budget
https://phys.org/news/2022-04-wildfires-canadian-boreal-forests-sizable.html

A paper by U.S. scientists published in the peer-reviewed journal Science Advances today finds that fires occurring in U.S. and Canadian boreal forests between now and 2050 could release about 3% of the remaining global carbon budget unless greater investments are made to limit fire size in these carbon-rich forests.

"Wildfires in boreal forests can be especially harmful in terms of the amount of emissions they release into the atmosphere since they store about two-thirds of the world's forest carbon, most of which is contained in the soil and has accumulated over hundreds or even thousands of years," said Dr. Phillips. "If not properly contained, heat-trapping emissions from wildfires in boreal forests could dramatically increase, jeopardizing nations' ability to limit warming in line with the Paris Agreement."

The study found that by midcentury, burned area in Alaskan and Canadian boreal forests is projected to increase as much as 169% and 150%, respectively, releasing nearly 12 gigatons of net carbon emissions—equivalent to the annual emissions of 2.6 billion cars—which represents about 3% of the remaining global carbon budget. These estimates are conservative, as the study did not assess the potential for boreal forest wildfires to accelerate permafrost thaw and other ecosystem processes that could further increase net carbon emissions.

Despite contributing an outsized share of carbon emissions, U.S. and Canadian boreal forests are given disproportionately small amounts of funding for fire suppression efforts. Alaska, for example, accounts for roughly 20% of burned land area and half of U.S. fire emissions annually, yet only receives about 4%, on average, of federal fire management funding. The study found the average cost of avoiding the emission of 1 ton of carbon dioxide was about $12, a cost comparable to or below that of other measures to mitigate climate change. In Alaska, that would mean investing an average of $696 million per year over the next decade to keep the state's wildfire emissions at historical levels.



Observed (1960–2019) and projected (2020–2050) gross and net CO2 emissions from boreal North America.

Carly A. Phillips, Escalating carbon emissions from North American boreal forest wildfires and the climate mitigation potential of fire management, Science Advances (2022)
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abl7161
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vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #63 on: July 20, 2022, 03:36:01 PM »
Smoke over Siberia
https://phys.org/news/2022-07-image-siberia.html



During the first week of July, NASA satellites began detecting signs that several wildland fires were burning in Russia's far east. Two weeks later, several fires had grown much larger and more intense, creating rivers of smoke that flowed over parts of Khabarovsk and the neighboring Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image of smoke swirling over the region on July 17, 2022. The image has been overlaid with red circles indicating locations where MODIS detected heat signatures indicative of fire. Many of the fires were burning in the Ayano-Maysky district of Khabarovsk, which is home to larch forests and the circular Kondyor massif.

According to Sakha's emergencies ministry, 51 fires burned across roughly 9,737 hectares (38 square miles) on July 18. More than 500 people were fighting the fires in Sakha, and thousands more were deployed to fire fronts across Russia, according to Russia's ministry of emergency situations (EMERCOM).

Fires are not the only hazard facing the region. Flooding along the Yana River recently displaced hundreds of people in Sakha.

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vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Wildfires
« Reply #64 on: November 06, 2022, 05:59:58 PM »
Tipping Point: Arctic Fires Could Release Catastrophic Amounts of CO2: Study
https://phys.org/news/2022-11-arctic-catastrophic-amounts-co2.html



Researchers fear a threshold might soon be crossed, beyond which small changes in temperature could lead to an exponential increase in area burned in Siberia and in the decades ahead they could release huge amounts of carbon now trapped in the soil.

In 2019 and 2020, fires in this remote part of the world destroyed a surface area equivalent to nearly half of that which burned in the previous 40 years, said this study, which was published in the journal Science.

These recent fires themselves have spewed some 150 million tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, the scientists estimate, contributing to global warming in what researchers call a feedback loop.

The area above the Arctic circle heats up four times faster than the rest of the planet and "it is this climate amplification which causes abnormal fire activity," David Gaveau, one of the authors of this study, told AFP.



Researchers concentrated on an area five and a half times the size of France and with satellite pictures observed the surface area burned each year from 1982 to 2020.

In 2020, fire charred more than 2.5 million hectares (6.2 million acres) of land and released, in CO2 equivalent, as much as that emitted by Spain in one year, the scientists concluded.

That year, summer in Siberia was on average three times hotter than it was in 1980. The Russian city of Verkhoyansk hit 38 degrees Celsius in summer, a record for the Arctic.



The average air temperature in summer, from June to August, surpassed 10°C only four times in the period under study: in 2001, 2018, 2019 and 2020. These turned out to be the years with the most fires too.

The team fears that this threshold at 10°C will be a breaking point that is surpassed more and more often, said Gaveau.

"The system goes out of whack, and for a small increase beyond 10°C we suddenly see lots of fires," he said.

... Fire damages frozen soil called permafrost, which releases even more carbon. Arctic soils store huge amounts of organic carbon, much of it in peatlands.

"This means that carbon sinks are transformed into sources of carbon," Gaveau said.

"If there continue to be fires every year, the soil will be in worse and worse condition. So there will be more and more emissions from this soil, and this is what is really worrisome."

Looking ahead to the future, the study analyzed two possible scenarios.

In the first one, nothing is done to fight climate change and temperatures keep rising steadily. In this case fires of the same gravity as in 2020 may occur every year.

In the second scenario, concentrations of greenhouse gases stabilize and temperatures level out by the second half of this century. In this case severe fires like those of 2020 would break out on average every 10 years, said Adria Descals Ferrando, the main author of the study.



Either way "summers with fires like those of 2020 are going to be more and more frequent starting in 2050 and beyond," said Gaveau.

Adrià Descals, Unprecedented fire activity above the Arctic Circle linked to rising temperatures, Science (2022).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn9768
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