In the linked article Scribbler notes that India's monsoon is delayed for the third year in a row (see the first attached image), and that climate change is the likely cause. However, I note that it is human subjectivity, and not science, that makes us evaluate the impacts of climate change separately from ENSO impacts, and I note that while the media (& Scribbler) believe that La Nina is beginning to bloom, the second image of the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued June 11 2016, indicate that the recent upwelling of cool deep water in the Nino 3, & eastern Nino 3.4, regions is now subsiding and the cool deep pool of water is dissipating (see the third attached image); it appear more likely that we are headed towards La Nada (neutral) conditions rather than La Nina conditions (as Sleepy has already pointed out):
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/10/indias-monsoon-is-delayed-for-the-third-year-in-a-row-climate-change-is-likely-cause/Extract: "The reduction in India’s monsoon rains is a big deal. It generates systemic drought, creates a prevalence for heatwaves, and locally amplifies the impacts of human-caused climate change. For three years now, the Indian monsoon has been delayed. India is experiencing its worst heatwaves ever recorded and water shortages across the country are growing dire. The monsoonal rains are coming, again late. And people across India — residents as well as weather and climate experts — are beginning to wonder if the endemic drought and heat stress will ever end.
Historically, there was only one climate condition known to bring about a delay in India’s Monsoon — El Nino. And last year, a strong El Nino is thought to have contributed both to the Monsoon’s late arrival and to a very severe drought that is now gripping the state. What the 2015 El Nino cannot also account for is the 2014 delay and weakening of monsoonal rains. And during 2016, as India’s monsoon has again been held back by 1-2 weeks, and El Nino is now but a memory, it’s beginning to become quite clear that there’s something else involved in the weakening of India’s annual rains.
…
Delays in the Indian Monsoon result in a loss of precipitation due to the fact that the duration of the event is greatly reduced. Rainfall has to therefore be more intense over a shorter period of time in order to make up for losses. Increasing drought prevalence results in further moisture losses due to a kind of atmospheric heat and dryness barrier that tends to sap storms of precipitation even as they start to form. The net result for India is a prediction of severe moisture loss due to human-caused climate change.
This year’s India monsoonal delay — as with the delay during 2014 — falls into that pattern. And the massive drought that India is now experiencing as a result appears to be emerging from a set of atmospheric conditions that are consistent with human-caused climate change. India’s risk for continued drought and increasingly extreme heatwaves over the coming years is therefore on the rise. And it is yet to be seen if this year’s monsoon will deliver the hoped-for and desperately-needed relief. Already, the rain-bearing storm system is lagging. And that’s not a good sign."
