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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1650 on: May 28, 2016, 09:09:09 PM »
12z ECMWF run might be a jackpot for the Arctic if the forecast for Day 5-10 holds. Perfect, the Arctic is saved and we should see a stall in extent!

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1651 on: May 28, 2016, 10:27:59 PM »
12z ECMWF run might be a jackpot for the Arctic if the forecast for Day 5-10 holds. Perfect, the Arctic is saved and we should see a stall in extent!

It's not that great. 


Winds are really bad.  Constant anti cyclonic flow over the CAB.

Pushing the myi directly towards the Atlantic and Fram.

The euro ensembles are much more dipole like.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1652 on: May 28, 2016, 10:38:12 PM »
Friv: I concur with you that the first 5 days are really bad but if the cyclonic weather and cooler dito in the later frame will come it should delay the melt onset which might be very important!

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1653 on: May 28, 2016, 11:37:02 PM »
Saying all this: do we actually know why 2012 went nuts?

No one knows the full story for sure IMO, but we can make some good guesses.  For me there are several factors:
1) 2011 preconditioned the ice to be in the weakest state on record (other than this year)
2) Big heat in early June initiated substantial surface melt by the end of the first week.
3) Later June saw a brief cyclone which dispersed large parts of the ice sheet to generate small patches of open water everywhere.
4) The low was brief, and the weather that follows while not great for melting, was not bad either.  Albedo alteration with surface melt, and lots of small patches of open water allowed lots of extra heat into the ice.  Small patches of water is important as large patches absorb most of the heat too far from the ice to melt anything.
5) Great Arctic Cyclone as the icing on the cake.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1654 on: May 29, 2016, 01:03:29 AM »
Quote
JimH: I also discovered that a buoy was dropped on to a MYI floe in the Beaufort Gyre in April:
http://justinbeckers.com/autonomous-stations/buoy%e2%80%90300234062442620/
That is a very cool location for a buoy but it seems only to record sea surface temperature and barometric pressure. The rest could simply be read off satellite imagery. In particular, it does not measure wind, ice thickness or water temperature or currents below the ice. Did they determine these latter at the time of installation?

It's unclear what exactly the SST measurement consists of -- is the sensor in the ice, on the ice, above the ice or what? It appears the barometric pressure is indicating instrument malfunction.

What is it about these buoys? The fact is, sitting on an ice floe for a few months at moderate temperatures is NOT a particularly harsh environment. They hardly ever seem to be working and we have no idea whether to believe when they are.

The kmz point file generating the buoy's google earth track is here, as is the data itself as in tabular CSV format:
http://www.justinbeckers.com/wp-content/uploads/

Name: 300234062442620
DateTime: 2016-05-28 18:00:00
SST (C): -1.5
Distance from last: 1636.24687612
Direction from last266.0
Battery Voltage (V): 14.4
Latitude: 72.4928
Longitude: -146.7206
Barometric Pressure (mbar): 850.0
Pressure Tendency: 0.0
Speed (m/hr): 1636.24687612

ghoti

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1655 on: May 29, 2016, 01:50:29 AM »
Over the years we have seen polar bears make a mess of several....

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1656 on: May 29, 2016, 02:07:27 AM »
The Russian side gets crushed.

The ESS gets completely smoked relentlessly.



I got a nickname for all my guns
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1657 on: May 29, 2016, 06:13:14 AM »
Friv: I concur with you that the first 5 days are really bad but if the cyclonic weather and cooler dito in the later frame will come it should delay the melt onset which might be very important!
obviously it's quite a ways out there but the euro shows a pretty stout wind from West to East in the Southern CAB. 


« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 07:00:25 AM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1658 on: May 29, 2016, 07:34:49 AM »
Firstly, is it ok to free comment on this years melt in this thread?

Secondly:

 <ahem>
 
  Looking at nsidc grey 2std dev bars... There appears to be no official register of stagnation in June if you will...

  ..I think we should count our lucky stars if we end up much above 7.42 mill by July 15!

  There, I said it: ...now I can sleep???
..
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They didn't understand
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abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1659 on: May 29, 2016, 07:46:23 AM »
Saying all this: do we actually know why 2012 went nuts?

No one knows the full story for sure IMO, but we can make some good guesses.  For me there are several factors:
1) 2011 preconditioned the ice to be in the weakest state on record (other than this year)
2) Big heat in early June initiated substantial surface melt by the end of the first week.
3) Later June saw a brief cyclone which dispersed large parts of the ice sheet to generate small patches of open water everywhere.
4) The low was brief, and the weather that follows while not great for melting, was not bad either.  Albedo alteration with surface melt, and lots of small patches of open water allowed lots of extra heat into the ice.  Small patches of water is important as large patches absorb most of the heat too far from the ice to melt anything.
5) Great Arctic Cyclone as the icing on the cake.
So, point number three is alluding to the superiority of 'area' and 'concentration' as indicators?

If so, this preconditioning that took place in 2011 was highlighted by 'area' and 'concentration'  indicators in the main,... perhaps?

 ???
..
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1660 on: May 29, 2016, 08:02:50 AM »
Friv: I concur with you that the first 5 days are really bad but if the cyclonic weather and cooler dito in the later frame will come it should delay the melt onset which might be very important!
It will need to come fast, as the next couple of days of CCI have temperatures well above zero across much of the ESS and Chukchi. It only gets worse until the end of the week.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1661 on: May 29, 2016, 08:52:18 AM »
  ..I think we should count our lucky stars if we end up much above 7.42 mill by July 15!

I guess you are referring to Dr. Slater's projections. And yes, I agree. We should be happy if we end up much above that by July 15.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1662 on: May 29, 2016, 09:25:39 AM »
OMFG THE 00z euro is EPIC.



WOOOOOOO
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1663 on: May 29, 2016, 09:38:58 AM »

3) Later June saw a brief cyclone which dispersed large parts of the ice sheet to generate small patches of open water everywhere.

So, point number three is alluding to the superiority of 'area' and 'concentration' as indicators?

If so, this preconditioning that took place in 2011 was highlighted by 'area' and 'concentration'  indicators in the main,... perhaps?

 ???

No, all indicators have their strengths and weaknesses, and none of the indicators pick up the reduction in concentration I refer to any way.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1664 on: May 29, 2016, 09:55:45 AM »
Well, is the 00z ECMWF run just an extremely bad outlier or is the ensemble showing the same signs?

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1665 on: May 29, 2016, 10:02:23 AM »
We'll have to wait and see. But indeed, ECMWF 10-day forecast suggests strong ridging over Greenland. Comes close to a worst case scenario first week of June.
The projected Lows do, however, position well into the CAB. They might bring some cloudy protection.
But the winds...storm over Lincoln and Wandel Sea.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1666 on: May 29, 2016, 12:01:10 PM »
Walt Meier reports on his new blog that he is currently situated:

Quote
On a narrow spit of land north of Barrow sticking out into the Beaufort Sea

This news seems worthy of a thread of its very own:

The 2016 Barrow Sea Ice Camp

Here's how the sea ice in the vicinity looks, courtesy of Sinead Farrell:



and Cecilia Bitz:

« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 12:11:59 PM by Jim Hunt »
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meddoc

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1667 on: May 29, 2016, 12:21:51 PM »
Meanwhile: cci- reanalyzer has removed their 2- 7 -day forecast models from the site...

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1668 on: May 29, 2016, 12:42:04 PM »
That is a very cool location for a buoy but it seems only to record sea surface temperature and barometric pressure.

It's unclear what exactly the SST measurement consists of -- is the sensor in the ice, on the ice, above the ice or what? It appears the barometric pressure is indicating instrument malfunction.

The buoy is described as a "drifting buoy", which was dropped from an aircraft. My assumption is that it is not specifically designed for use on ice, and that the reported "SST" is from a sensor located at or slightly above the surface of the ice. As you say, its barometer appears to be broken.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1669 on: May 29, 2016, 01:02:52 PM »
Yes, I may have to resort to something of the kind. But whatever it is I'm using, I can't compare it to the DMI SST images I have been using these past few years.  :'(

Hi Neven,

Did you see that the DMI ice temperature page is also showing the SST?  It's not that same and it does not have the anomaly, but at least the map on which it is presented is the same.

Which begs the question, if they have the data why did they stop presenting it???
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1670 on: May 29, 2016, 01:25:16 PM »
Thanks for the link Jim that is a very interesting paper, putting some thickness numbers on  floes which we can identify and track.
https://www.arcus.org/files/page/documents/25543/sio_2016_haas_preseason_contribution.pdf
the image below is North up (Mackenzie delta at bottom edge) to help with finding it on worldview.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1671 on: May 29, 2016, 01:25:24 PM »
If Climate Reanalyzer's June 3 temperatures materialize, the ESS will be in rough shape in another week.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1672 on: May 29, 2016, 02:05:24 PM »
Not just ESS, if CCI is anywhere near right we could see 500,000 fall in next week

Lawrence Martin

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1673 on: May 29, 2016, 02:05:36 PM »
Meanwhile: cci- reanalyzer has removed their 2- 7 -day forecast models from the site...

  They are still there but one now has to click on hourly forecast maps, then scroll down to GFS Arctic seven day forecast.
  Or one can simply click this direct link
  http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA


Meirion

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1674 on: May 29, 2016, 02:09:36 PM »
So to be specific I'm looking at sub 10,150,000 for June 4 fig - hope I'm wrong

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1675 on: May 29, 2016, 02:14:28 PM »
Thanks for the link Jim that is a very interesting paper, putting some thickness numbers on  floes which we can identify and track.
https://www.arcus.org/files/page/documents/25543/sio_2016_haas_preseason_contribution.pdf
the image below is North up (Mackenzie delta at bottom edge) to help with finding it on worldview.

The largest floe in the figure is right now almost North of Barrow, the round biggest one we have been watching since April. Just for awareness, the satellite image has been stretched vertically in the figure and the floe seems elongated.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 02:22:39 PM by seaicesailor »

Yuha

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1676 on: May 29, 2016, 02:20:36 PM »
Saying all this: do we actually know why 2012 went nuts?

No one knows the full story for sure IMO, but we can make some good guesses.  For me there are several factors:
1) 2011 preconditioned the ice to be in the weakest state on record (other than this year)
2) Big heat in early June initiated substantial surface melt by the end of the first week.
3) Later June saw a brief cyclone which dispersed large parts of the ice sheet to generate small patches of open water everywhere.
4) The low was brief, and the weather that follows while not great for melting, was not bad either.  Albedo alteration with surface melt, and lots of small patches of open water allowed lots of extra heat into the ice.  Small patches of water is important as large patches absorb most of the heat too far from the ice to melt anything.
5) Great Arctic Cyclone as the icing on the cake.

6) Stronger than usual Fram Strait export during the summer.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 02:25:58 PM by Yuha »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1677 on: May 29, 2016, 02:42:43 PM »
I would say that the ESS might be the area that is best prepared to take the direct hit from this heat intrusion. If it had been Beaufort, Laptev, Kara or Barentz the ice would have slashed there!

//LMV

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1678 on: May 29, 2016, 03:54:11 PM »
If Climate Reanalyzer's June 3 temperatures materialize, the ESS will be in rough shape in another week.

The thing with this heat wave is that it comes preceded by many days of above average warm weather over Eastern Siberia. Snow cover has been decimated very quickly in just one week (see below NOAA snow cover, and Rutgers snow cover anomaly, comparisons from 21 May to 28 May).
If warm wind blows over the ice coming from this part of the continent, there should be much snow melting over the ice, but the weather maps don't show strong winds (do they?).
(edit, there may be significant wind from the continent but it is a 5-day forecast)

Another thing, HYCOM shows water opening along the Siberian coast during next week. Just like last year there may be a melt front established from Canada to Laptev pretty soon in the season.
However I agree it doesn't imply big drop in extent (yet)
« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 06:47:02 PM by seaicesailor »

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1679 on: May 29, 2016, 04:24:29 PM »
Quote
putting some thickness numbers on  floes which we can identify and track.
Now that is useful.

Below I tracked a floe on the open edge of the Beaufort Gyre over the month of May to see if it lost area, as it might melt in from its periphery where exposed to sea water. It did not. The only loss came from a small piece that broke off (small red floes). The pixel count for the blue area did not change significantly.

There may well be melting and ablation but it is from the bottom and top rather than the sides. No melt ponds have appeared on the surface. This is just one floe but seems to be representative of others in the region.

pixels   day      pixels   day
20483   27      21279   15
20619   26      20860   14
20020   25      20841   13
20954   24      20887   12
20453   23      21015   11
20460   22      21334   10
20790   21      21336   9
20621   20      21079   8
20779   19      21482   7
20410   18      21175   6
20887   17      21012   5
20703   16         
« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 04:49:29 PM by A-Team »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1680 on: May 29, 2016, 04:46:17 PM »
Quote
putting some thickness numbers on  floes which we can identify and track.
Now that is useful.
[...] It did not. The only loss came from a small piece that broke off (small red floes). The pixel count for the blue area did not change significantly.

There may well be melting and ablation but it is from the bottom and top rather than the sides. [...]

Great animation as always, A-Team. There seem to be other big floes around this one (at least three at left, top, and right, I think) that break up in smaller ones, probably because their ice is thinner than the main one's. Some "splinters" of these "break-ups" just vanish.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1681 on: May 29, 2016, 05:24:19 PM »
It's a question of days now. Maybe open water all the way from the NWP to Bering Strait and the Pacific Ocean before the month is out?

Another clear shot today. It's still hanging in there - but judging by the look of the rubble to the North of it, when it does go, it will open up least 100 miles of open water pretty much instantly...


ktonine

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1682 on: May 29, 2016, 05:26:01 PM »
The only loss came from a small piece that broke off (small red floes). The pixel count for the blue area did not change significantly.

A-Team, an interesting animation, but as seaicesailor hints the real story may be that so many of these floes are breaking apart.  This was the effect that Rampal et al described in their 2009 paper Positive trend in the mean speed and deformation rate of Arctic sea ice, 1979–2007.

It was this kinematic process of increased speed and mechanical deformation that models underestimate that led me to believe that the negative feedback of open water in fall/winter as described by Schroder & Connolley and then by Tietsche et al was correct in the physics of the feedback, but that their model predictions of slow sea ice retreat was still an underestimation.

It would be of equal or perhaps more interest to track a floe that disintegrates to see how much of it can be accounted for.  Unfortunately the resolution will prevent us from seeing all of the scattered smaller pieces and individually tracking them at a few pixels size would require painstaking analysis.


Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1683 on: May 29, 2016, 05:51:56 PM »
By coincidence I have been tracking the smaller floe just south (on the 27th) of the one which A-team has measured. Before it breaks there are darker lines visible which divide it into four pieces into which it then breaks. Tracing back to when it broke of a larger area I then found that these lines were thinner ice which froze in gaps between these pieces back in April.
There are also darker lines on the large floe which can be seen as recently opened cracks on the 16th  March. This gives an idea how these apparently solid floes consist of an agglomeration of older pieces with younger infill. Figure 2 in the Haas et al paper shows that for very recent freeze with thicknesses of .5 m . This very thin infill has now already disappeared.
I would expect some of the younger infill to be able to compress and thicken faster that way than would be expected from bottom freezing rates. But of course that could probably still be a structural weakness.
apologies about the crude collage, I have used worldview to include the approximate position of the floe in the bottom right corner

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1684 on: May 29, 2016, 06:19:43 PM »
Quote
more interest to track a floe that disintegrates to see how much of it can be accounted for.
That's a hard way to go. For starters, imagery for that does not exist (short of paying for hugely expensive commercial satellite coverage). Even if it did, substantial cloud cover, variably thick and thin, often interferes for many days in a row.

If one pixel on the best available daily optical image is 250 m pixels on a side, it would not be feasible to follow a floe quantitatively below a few sq km in area. As small floes change appearance and mingle with other pieces, they become difficult to track reliably.

Higher resolution imagery such as Sentinel 2A at 10 m, has an orbital return time of ten days. Make that 20, 30 or more considering clouds for comparable viewing geometry. The coverage of the Beaufort Sea by S2A is largely circum-coastal, meaning floes will drift out of view in successive images. Sentinel 1A radar penetrates the clouds ok but presents similar issues.

Even if the resolution were at hand, the area of a five sq km floe is mostly interior with little periphery. If the water is so cold that it is not melting off (or capable of abrading) the edges of the larger floes, why then is it warm enough to melt the edges off the smaller floes?

In past years, we've looked at how peripheral area grows with floe fragmentation relative to (fixed) floe bottom area -- not very fast because non-freeboard ice is just a meter or two thick.

While floe fracturing on the edge of the Beaufort Gyre is a significant process, it is not seen so often in more interior floes (where most of the ice is). The fracturing there happens early on when very large rigid blocks are torqued. After the initial events, no mechanism remains to transmit force to free-floating pieces other than waves, but here the fetch is too short, unlike that now along the Alaskan coast.

JimH posted a very interesting account yesterday of wave action observed by researchers fortuitously on the scene with deployed instrumentation. The usual dramatic mechanical break-up was seen but the actual consequential impact came from wave action bringing up warm water from 25 m depth. Which makes one wonder about those ubiquitous deep & stable Atlantic Water cartoons of the Arctic Ocean.

Quote
By coincidence I have been tracking the smaller floe just south (on the 27th) of the one measured above
By coincidence, I was just taking a closer look at some of seaicesailor's floes ... note the flanking ambiguous areas of gray which could be new thin ice or older ice now awash in water. In addition to AndreasT's floes breaking along previous lines of refreezing, there are also floes fragmenting along unmotivated lines. On the other hand, the very largest floe, for which we have numerous posts, is a patchwork of older joins but is yet to do any fracturing. It originated back at Prince Patrick whereas the floe above split off by Banks.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 06:33:24 PM by A-Team »

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1685 on: May 29, 2016, 07:30:17 PM »
Simple query whilst we're on the subject. When a chunk breaks off it still sits with 90% of its mass submerged?

Does every slab shed instantly expose more surface area to the ocean?
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1686 on: May 29, 2016, 07:45:45 PM »
Simple query whilst we're on the subject. When a chunk breaks off it still sits with 90% of its mass submerged?

Does every slab shed instantly expose more surface area to the ocean?

Splitting doesn't change the % of submerged mass. That's just a function of the density of ice vs. water.

Spitting floes does increase the exposed surface area, but unless the floes are tiny to begin with, the change is negligible, since even a 4 meter thick floe that's 10km x 10km only has 100km^2 area on top, 100km^2 on the bottom and 0.16km^2 on the sides.

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1687 on: May 29, 2016, 08:08:55 PM »
Timalard posted that video of David Barber, it is interesting for the melting season. Speaking of multi year sea ice breaking fast due to waves, also the presence of very thick pieces of ancient shelves in the Beaufort and the counter-intuitive idea that with the melting of ice the ice can thicken.

until 30 minutes

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1688 on: May 29, 2016, 09:12:16 PM »
From ECMWF 12z run a interesting "Little MAC-PAC" might show up in the CAB by next week. MAC= Moderate Arctic Cyclone & PAC = Persistent Arctic Cyclone.

In any way, this evolution should prompt any significant decrease in extent in the later frame and delay the melt onset. Maybe not initially as Hudson Bay and Labrador Sea will see a decent melting, but in the other regions! If this weather pattern actually come into play, I think we might be very surprised over June!! The main concern is whether the cyclone will push a lot of MYI out through Fram Strait or not!!

Actually, Neven might have a post with the title "A gamechanger?" in his next update :)

Best, LMV

Comradez

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1689 on: May 29, 2016, 09:20:06 PM »
Funny enough, 2016 is almost an exact replica of 2015 on the Beaufort / Chukchi front, even down to the exact shape of the sea ice front in the Chukchi, although 2015 had more snowmelt in the lower CAA by this point. 

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1690 on: May 29, 2016, 09:39:18 PM »
From ECMWF 12z run a interesting "Little MAC-PAC" might show up in the CAB by next week. MAC= Moderate Arctic Cyclone & PAC = Persistent Arctic Cyclone.

In any way, this evolution should prompt any significant decrease in extent in the later frame and delay the melt onset. Maybe not initially as Hudson Bay and Labrador Sea will see a decent melting, but in the other regions! If this weather pattern actually come into play, I think we might be very surprised over June!! The main concern is whether the cyclone will push a lot of MYI out through Fram Strait or not!!

Actually, Neven might have a post with the title "A gamechanger?" in his next update :)

Best, LMV

Yes... but as with all deterministic long-range progs like the one you're citing -- take it with a grain of salt. We'll have to wait a couple more hours for the ensemble average run (the EPS) to come out, which generally shows considerably better skill scores. If the cyclone is shunted off to the Russian side like the 00Z EPS was showing (and has been showing) then it's a horrible pattern for ice retention and similar to the flushing pattern of 2012. If it turns out to be over the pole or closer to the NA side, then yes, it's a good retention pattern. The distance between these two solutions is well inside the margin of error at this range, so it's a toss-up at best and at the very least -- very premature to be talking about extent loss slowing.

I find myself having to repeat this over and over and over -- the OP or deterministic runs past D5 have inferior skill scores when compared to ensembles. We just saw this not even two weeks ago when folks were posting about a good weather pattern showing up on the operational deterministic runs in the long range. The ensembles never swung around to support it and it never materialized. But here we are prepared to make the same mistake again. Until the ensembles swing around to support it -- it's a tenuous proposition at best.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1691 on: May 29, 2016, 10:31:36 PM »
I just checked the DMI +80dgN temp graph and saw it was at -2dC now, coming loose from the climate mean and running for the zero mark. Much like '12, though it has been warmer than '12 most of the time.
The graph is unprecedented against all earlier years.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1692 on: May 29, 2016, 11:30:12 PM »
I for one shall very much miss the Beaufort Gyre and the rest. Beaufort, Nares Strait and Jakobshavn were endlessly fascinating natural features.

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« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 11:39:39 PM by A-Team »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1693 on: May 29, 2016, 11:49:18 PM »
A couple of images from a few days ago (when we had clear weather) showing a snipped of what we're up against.  This is the western Kara, the first raw visible (somewhat large, but I wanted to preserve detail) showing about 40,000KM2 with extensive melt and ponding.

The second image is of approximately the same region overlaid with band-31 day in a rainbow pallet, squashed to 266-273K.
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solartim27

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1694 on: May 30, 2016, 02:44:37 AM »
After the initial events, no mechanism remains to transmit force to free-floating pieces other than waves, but here the fetch is too short, unlike that now along the Alaskan coast.
Unless a seal happens to hop on top of it!
I saw video of a pod of orcas creating waves to break up an ice floe to get at a seal on the PBS show Nature.  Starts at 39:50 in the episode.
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/natures-perfect-partners-full-episode/14261/
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1695 on: May 30, 2016, 07:38:59 AM »
A-Team... I wouldn't be surprised to see the floe you posted on this morning break into 3 of 4 pieces pretty soon. It has two big cracks across the middle that were actually open water at ~73N when the sun came up way back on 28 Feb...

In the attached gif I've tried to keep them centered the whole way through so as to make it easier to follow....


Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1696 on: May 30, 2016, 08:07:57 AM »
Quote
putting some thickness numbers on  floes which we can identify and track.
Now that is useful.

Below I tracked a floe on the open edge of the Beaufort Gyre over the month of May to see if it lost area, as it might melt in from its periphery where exposed to sea water. It did not. The only loss came from a small piece that broke off (small red floes). The pixel count for the blue area did not change significantly.

There may well be melting and ablation but it is from the bottom and top rather than the sides. No melt ponds have appeared on the surface. This is just one floe but seems to be representative of others in the region.

A-team, thank you for the animation of that floe.
For this particular floe, there are two reasons why you won't "see" much of the "melting" going on :

1) This floe has still been quite far away from the real open water in the Beaufort.
Thus, it has not "felt" much of the warm water there, and thus has remained intact.

2) This flow is very large, which means it's side-area (where you measure it) is much, much smaller than it's bottom area.
If you float a large floe in warm(ish) water, it will FIRST start to "bottom-melt". After all, that is where the large surface area is that is exposed to the water. The floe will thus not reduce in size, but first thin out, and THEN, once thin enough, it will break up. After that side area/bottom area increases, and the pieces start to reduce in size as fast as they continue to bottom-melt. After that the floe just suddenly disappears as it melts out completely. Much like these two small red pieces that disappear within two frames after they break off.
And note the "swirls" of white in the open water, which is indicative of small floes melting away quickly, as is visible in several of the frames of your animation.

So melt is happening there. Big time. And the time for this big floe will come too. Let's keep on eye on this big guy, and see how it develops over the next week or so.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1697 on: May 30, 2016, 08:26:30 AM »
Just to be clear, I was talking about melt observations in this A-team animation (thank you A-team. You are the best!) :

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1698 on: May 30, 2016, 08:36:54 AM »
The 00gfs has trended back more towards a dipole with a huge GIS ridge
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1699 on: May 30, 2016, 09:00:57 AM »
Friv: 00z ECMWF supports that idea! If they verify it would be a nightmare for the ice. And Cukchi and Beaufort would be slashed.