The 2016 melting season

[seaicesailor]

Science day. I went to some lengths and grabbed Andreas' last link to July 21 worldview image (Brightness temperature) which might serve identify differences of SST. I rotated and cropped to compare the same day HYCOM sea surface salinity prediction. The idea was to verify to some extent if the inflow of slightly saltier water into Chukchi sea that HYCOM shows is realistic.
Nobody says the difference in colour from orange (warmer incoming current) to red (surrounding water) has anything to do with different SST but the similarity in shape with the saltier current shown by HYCOM is clear. There are some spots where weather interferences bother (the area closest to the Bering strait is broken with red) but if one browses worldview, they don't stay in the same place.
The bifurcation around the Herald Shoal (or around the column as A-Team reminded) is also visible. Jay gif's eddies are downstream the left current (Anadyr in the diagram) 
Which gives me some confidence that the currents and eddies shown by HYCOM in Beaufort are not all unrealistic.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif

[Jim Hunt]

A nice clear view of the 2016 model of "Santa's secret summer swimming pool"

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2016-images/#NorthPole

[A-Team]

Some additional resources for people wishing to flog themselves with more oceanography of the Fram and Barents polar front region (in addition to ones discussed on the AMSR2 forum).

Atlantic Water advection versus sea-ice advances in the eastern Fram Strait during the last 9 ka
Kirstin Werner 2013 DOI: 10.1002/palo.20028
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/palo.20028/full

Defining a Simplified Yet “Realistic” Equation of State for Seawater
F Roquet 2015
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0080.1

The Barents Sea polar front and water masses variability (1980–2011)
L Oziel 2015
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.686.9429&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Ocean heat flux
N Acropolis 2015
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/06/ocean-heat-flux.html

Formation of Barents Sea Branch Water in the north-eastern Barents Sea
VS Lien 2013
http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/18905/30313

The Role Of The Barents Sea In The Arctic Climate System
LH Smedsrud 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rog.20017/full

The Late Weichselian glaciation of the Franz Victoria Trough: ice sheet extent and timing
H.P. Kleiber 2000
http://www.ngu.no/glacipet/photos/internal/pdfs_of_articles/kleiber_knies_niessen2000.pdf

The inflow of Atlantic water at the Fram Strait and its interannual variability
T Kawasaki 2016
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011375/abstract

[A-Team]

#3651 A nice clear view of the 2016 model of "Santa's secret summer swimming pool"

Goes to show it's worthwhile cycling through terra, suomi and aqua as only terra got to see through the clouds. The image below uses the worldview snapshot feature to fix a scale at 250 m/pxl. A frame is 232 x 540 pixels or 58 x 135 kms or 7830 km².

We've been using this feature (orange circle, animation) for the last ten days to track bulk motion of the ice pack to the north of the Svalbard - Barents polar front on the AMSR2 forum ...

[Andreas T]

prompted by this animation by A-team I took a closed look at temperatures in the Beaufort. The 24th gave a fairly clear view for an AQUA IR band image. http://go.nasa.gov/2agjZob
the temperature scale is very compressed (262 - 280K) to bring out differences but the warm water which can be seen between floes is quite striking.

[jai mitchell]

h/t to Jim Hunt for saving the 2013-Sept-2nd AMR2 image, here is a comparison to today's image

First image Sept 2nd, 2013
Second image today's condition with 37 days of melt left to reach the 2013 day of the year above.

[jai mitchell]

here is the 2012 value from july 24th, just to compare

In review of the 2012 vs 2016 images it really shows that if we had the fram export in July that was observed in 2012 we would be in a strong position to go well below 2012s minimum value.  The current state of the ice's fractured state shows that the SIE values understates significantly the difference in the actual ice conditions between these years.

[slow wing]

here is the 2012 value from Sept 24th, just to compare

The image looks to be from July, which is the seventh month of the year.

Similarly, you appear to have mis-labelled the 2016 plot above - we haven't yet reached the 8th month of 2016, August.

A helpful resource from Neven compares these maps for the different years, here is the web page for 25th July: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0725
(For 2016, the most recent image is shown in these comparisons.)

[Nightvid Cole]

Here is an image from July 17th of this year, with less cloud obscuration of the satellite sensor.

[seaicesailor]

prompted by this animation by A-team I took a closed look at temperatures in the Beaufort. The 24th gave a fairly clear view for an AQUA IR band image. http://go.nasa.gov/2agjZob
the temperature scale is very compressed (262 - 280K) to bring out differences but the warm water which can be seen between floes is quite striking.

Again I predate from Andreas' work with worldview (thank you maestro!). I have squeezed the palette even more within 268.5 and 271.1 K to reveal flow structures in the Beaufort sea. In an exercise of  imagination and far-reaching, I have marked with arrows what looks like jets (mushroom- or anvil- shaped structures). The one leaving Barrow point and another one opposing it are stable and clear in HYCOM simulation too. The two closest to the Mackenzie delta as well, but their disposition is not exactly the same. Then there is a disordered region of mixing pointing toward the North West and reaching the latitudes of the defunct Big Block remains (marked with a circle). This differs slightly in HYCOM, but in any case these structures are not steady in their position like the other jets.
Now the interesting thing is that there is no sign of eddies in the region between the coast and the dashed line. This region is shallow ocean. An explanation is that these jets may be traveling up the shelf break from deeper ocean and then rotating away from the coast (that would be... upwelling?). By doing this they would trap warmer and saltier water and pull it away from the coast.
The reason of this upwelling, if this exists, would be really interesting to know. Will look in HYCOM archives to see how this was in other years.

[Steven]

For some reason, Environment Canada's cloud free mosaic seems stuck on the week ending July 4.

They've updated it today.  Here is their latest weekly MODIS false-color composite image:



https://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/?lang=En&n=DFFA2648-1#modis

and here is the corresponding image for last year, 21-27 July 2015:

http://i.imgur.com/bb9H13X.jpg

[Neven]

Here's one for July 17-23 2012:

[Michael Hauber]

In review of the 2012 vs 2016 images it really shows that if we had the fram export in July that was observed in 2012 we would be in a strong position to go well below 2012s minimum value. 

Looking through half a dozen random dates in July 2016 and July 2012 at Hycom archive I see no real difference between Fram export between the two years.  Maybe my random picks weren't representative.

[jai mitchell]

In review of the 2012 vs 2016 images it really shows that if we had the fram export in July that was observed in 2012 we would be in a strong position to go well below 2012s minimum value. 

Looking through half a dozen random dates in July 2016 and July 2012 at Hycom archive I see no real difference between Fram export between the two years.  Maybe my random picks weren't representative.

you should try to find peer reviewed papers whenever possible.

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf

Fig 3:  2012 have the highest March-August export in the series, though I don't need to use the paper because I have the memory of the event.

[Michael Hauber]

you should try to find peer reviewed papers whenever possible.

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf

Fig 3:  2012 have the highest March-August export in the series, though I don't need to use the paper because I have the memory of the event.

March to August is a very different time period to July.  My impression of 2012 was that fram export was higher earlier in the season than it was in July.

edit:  the document can't really be described as peer reviewed.  It is currently undergoing an open peer review process and some of the review criticisms look somewhat serious.

[jai mitchell]

Published: 7 August 2015

[Richard Rathbone]

Published: 7 August 2015

Thats publication in TCD which is not a peer reviewed journal. TCD is a repository for papers which may eventually become peer reviewed publications in TC, but this one hasn't passed review yet. (and may well never do so)

[Jim Hunt]

The skies are clearing over the Laptev Sea, as sea ice area belatedly heads over the proverbial "cliff":

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-28

[seaicesailor]

They've updated it today.  Here is their latest weekly MODIS false-color composite image:

Here's one for July 17-23 2012:

I took the liberty to crop and put side by side the pics corresponding to 2012 and 2016:

[Nightvid Cole]

Latest ZMAW map:

[seaicesailor]

The weather has been behaving this week as was predicted by the models
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg84472.html#msg84472
dragging quite some warm air into the Arctic. This will continue until Sunday. However next week seems to come much colder. Any thought on this appreciated.

[A-Team]

The UH AMRS2 3k ('zmaw') daily archive and its forum are linked below. Appropriate use of the 3 files for each date were discussed there recently, including netCDF daily differencing, obligatory palette balancing and replacement needed for day to day comparisons, and high resolution visualization of CAA status (Northwest Passage).

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg84774/topicseen.html#msg84774

Interestingly during the day, UH releases partial sea ice concentrations as orbital passes accrue. These can differ from the final product as 'mid-day' concentrations but are over-written and apparently discarded. It would take scripted pinging for archive timestamp changes to capture intermediate ice motions.

The long-sought swath files for Suomi, Terra and Aqua are available at the third link. This has a nice mouse-over earth locator and also a link into WorldView. The images -- which represent 5 minutes of data acquisition -- are not yet geometrically rectified nor corrected for atmospheric effects. These are still useful though, eg for wildfire smoke.

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/earth-observation-data/near-real-time/rapid-response

There is a 2.5 hour delay on the Suomi VIIRS which carries the AMSR2 instrument whose data is used at UH. There are images for band combinations 1-4-3, 3-6-7, 7-2-1 and 31. On the final products, it's worth noting that the 3rd channel on 3-6-7 is not identical to the the first channel on 7-2-1 (ie 7 ≠ 7 after corrections, meaning subtracting pixels does not give pure black).

[BornFromTheVoid]

2016 quickly falling behind 2012 with the NSIDC extent, with the latest daily value being 462k above. As 2012 drops another 277k in the next 3 days, we could be well over half a million km2 off by the weekend.

[Jim Hunt]

There is a 2.5 hour delay on the Suomi VIIRS which carries the AMSR2 instrument whose data is used at UH.

Surely UH use AMSR2 data from the Japanese GCOM-W1 (AKA Shizuku) satellite?

[jai mitchell]

ice area flux export through the fram strait series is found here: https://www.nersc.no/biblio/ice-motion-and-ice-area-flux-fram-strait-79n-using-asar-and-passive-microwave-feb-2004-%E2%80%93-july  The updated report 322c was published in 2014 though i do not have the link.

[jdallen]

2016 quickly falling behind 2012 with the NSIDC extent, with the latest daily value being 462k above. As 2012 drops another 277k in the next 3 days, we could be well over half a million km2 off by the weekend.

As I said on another thread (possibly the wrong one), I wonder where the heat is going?  Albedo's not all that high, temperatures not that low, sea water temps in most places positively toasty.  Not making sense of it.

[Nick_Naylor]

Probably makes sense to break out the scientific jargon:

NSIDC extent is based on humongous cells, and the ice is broken into teeny-weeny pieces, so it's like using a Monty Python balance beam to see whether gravity waves weigh the same as a duck

Area measures put 2016 in the same ballpark as 2012. Wipneus' home-brew measure still has 2016 in the lead for area . . .

[Tigertown]

I think you nailed it. We have to look more at other gauges right now, like area. The SIE numbers are going to be deceptive for a little longer. Not much time left this year and it might not break the record, but I bet it gets close....

[slow wing]

Yep, the extent is just one parameter, and doesn't necessarily correspond well to the health of the ice.

In particular, dispersion (spreading out) of the ice pack during the melt season is generally unhealthy for the ice but it tends to temporarily inflate the extent parameter.

That's what seems to be happening at the moment. Dispersion of the ice from the current low pressure systems passing through the Arctic Basin is probably the main reason the extent parameter hasn't, in recent days, been dropping as fast as in 2012.

Movement of the ice can be seen here:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif

At the moment the ice is being stretched out in the Eastern Siberian Sea (ESS) region and, on the Atlantic side, towards the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard. (Though it is also being pushed inwards from the Beaufort Sea, which would tend to reduce extent.)

[seaicesailor]

2016 quickly falling behind 2012 with the NSIDC extent, with the latest daily value being 462k above. As 2012 drops another 277k in the next 3 days, we could be well over half a million km2 off by the weekend.

As I said on another thread (possibly the wrong one), I wonder where the heat is going?  Albedo's not all that high, temperatures not that low, sea water temps in most places positively toasty.  Not making sense of it.

I have the exact same feeling. Extent-wise there was export to Beaufort and Atlantic side, plus the usual storm with its  effect on extent slow down. Area however did not stall so much so heat and storms were felt. But still...
Next week the usual storm at the 'alley', will persist for three days around Chukchi, will it break ESS ice extent in two? . Still some heat from peripheral areas. CAA should get baked... I don't know what to read out of all this.

[slow wing]

Yep, SeaIceSailor, here's a 72h prediction map for that low pressure system, with the path of the low drawn in. As you say, it's predicted to hold for several day in the low to mid 980 hPa region.

As has already happened multiple times this season, the low will disperse the Pacific side of the ice pack out into the warm ice-killing regions around the Beaufort Sea and Bering Strait, leaving gaps in the interior.

  I'm thinking the ice pack won't be able to take much more of this and predict a cliff in sea ice area over the next couple of weeks.

Plot is modified screen-shot from http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016072812&fh=0

[Tigertown]

It is easy to see what happens to any ice that strays into one of these warm areas. It's just a matter of time before more ice gets pushed or dispersed into warm waters. Although it's not a huge deal, Nare's Strait is opening up and pulling chunks in, and the warmth from Baffin is working north. And the Greenland Sea is opening up more with the landfast ice disentegrating and that on the north shores. I think all those little things will add up to more mobility, which will be devastating to the pack.

[S.Pansa]

As the models seem to agree quite well on the upcoming low, so perhaps it is worth to have a look at the possible consequences.
Here is what TOPAZ4 thinks will happen: 29-07, 06-08 & as a comparison 06-08-2012. Caveat: I am not sure 2012 and 2016 are based on the same model-version, furthermore 2016 is a forecast.
Nevertheless I thought it makes for an interesting comparison. To my eyeballs this seems to indicat/confirm that 2016 won't get close to 2012 extent-wise - volume, on the other hand, might be a different matter (perhaps a chance for top 3?). Will be interesting to see what PIOMAS comes up ...

[Thawing Thunder]

Pansa, I can't understand why the model is showing so much thin ice between Laptev Sea and Svalbard, this doesn't seem to coincide with actual measurements. On the other hand, I think this is the first day the Bremen map is showing the full poof-potential of 2016 (just quite on the other side of the ice):

[werther]

Back after some weeks abroad.
Thanks S.Panza for the TOPAZ-images. From what little visual information the clouds let me interpret on MODIS today, I still see the ice morphology as record-bad. There's just no recognizable structure left anywhere.
No safe 'mesh pack', not even in the CAB N of CAA and Greenland. It's an enormous, spread-out soup of quite small individual floes with lots of rubble in between. Even in '12, one could see a lead-pattern in this rubble. The rhomboid floes in between were considerably larger and well lined up.
TT, the ice in the Laptev sector didn't come out of winter with a normal thickness. There's no 'Laptev bite' this year, so it initially looks like the same condition runs right from the CAB up to the Siberian shores near Taymir. This is a decieving impression; the state of the ice is weak.

[S.Pansa]

@Thawing Thunder. Unfortunately we don't have - at least as far as I know- real measurements for thickness on the Atlantic side (no Cryosat measurements for summer, no buoys). The extent map might give a clue - but at the end it only shows extent.
So I have no clue if the thickness on the Atlantic side is anywhere close to what TOPAZ4 shows. But according to PIOMAS the ice never was really thick there, at least not at the end of June. The last available Cryosat data seem to agree on that.

[Glenn Tamblyn]

Looking at the UB map, and previous ones, at MODIS etc. Just imagine what would be happening if we had had weather really suited to melting! Imagine that map with clear skies from early July! How many 'recovery' years would it take to restore the ice to some health?

It's like going to visit a terminally ill relative. 'They had a good day today', 'today wasn't so good'. In reality it is any day (year) now.

[Thawing Thunder]

Thank you Pansa. I was seduced to suppose the ice there was in a somewhat better state of health. So even much more poof-potential everywhere. And to get over that morbid fascination I often feel watching the shrinking of the ice: It's really adequate to use Glenn's analogy of a terminally ill relative. Let's attend this all with awe and respect.

[epiphyte]

[...] There's just no recognizable structure left anywhere.
No safe 'mesh pack', not even in the CAB N of CAA and Greenland. It's an enormous, spread-out soup of quite small individual floes with lots of rubble in between.
Even in '12, one could see a lead-pattern in this rubble. The rhomboid floes in between were considerably larger and well lined up.
TT, the ice in the Laptev sector didn't come out of winter with a normal thickness. There's no 'Laptev bite' this year, so it initially looks like the same condition runs right from the CAB up to the Siberian shores near Taymir. This is a decieving impression; the state of the ice is weak.

Quite. Perhaps being away for a bit has made you immune to the "Frog in the slowly but steadily heating cauldron" syndrome which seems to be a widespread affliction in these parts 

[peterlvmeng]

The interface between the main ice and the sea becomes clear ultimately after the storm(draw in black curve) from EOSDIS today. Shrinking earlier and more tremendously than 2012!!! It happens so fast and unexpected though.

[seaicesailor]

...
TT, the ice in the Laptev sector didn't come out of winter with a normal thickness. There's no 'Laptev bite' this year, so it initially looks like the same condition runs right from the CAB up to the Siberian shores near Taymir. This is a decieving impression; the state of the ice is weak.

Quite. Perhaps being away for a bit has made you immune to the "Frog in the slowly but steadily heating cauldron" syndrome which seems to be a widespread affliction in these parts 

I buy that, each storm that crosses along the alley breaks floes to smaller scales, we saw Healy pics with many floes under MODIS resolution. Bottom and lateral melting  may deal with all this broken ice but the final outcome still depends on August weather.

[F.Tnioli]

... It happens so fast and unexpected though.

I agree about "fast". I can't agree about "unexpected" though. I like how Thawing Thunder puts it just a bit above: "poof-potential of 2016". Nice term.

[jdallen]

I find this graphic very disturbing.  I haven't looked at SST's for a while and this made my jaw drop.

Enormous heat built up in the North Atlantic/Greenland Sea/Barents Sea with ominous implications for our coming fall and winter weather.

Not thinking there's a way for it to get to the ice, but any circulation that shoves ice towards the Atlantic front *will* make it disappear.

[jai mitchell]

for comparison

[jdallen]

for comparison

Thank you, Jai!
[edit: A little additional investigation comparing this to the Cryosphere Today Sept. 21 2015 extent suggests to me that the current 2016 .025+ anomaly band inner edge may provide a reasonable proxy for end of season extent. It will be interesting to compare.]

[jdallen]

Shot of the center of the current storm from 7/27/2016, at about 79N, 147.5E, showing how it is tearing up the pack.

Area in the shot is about 20,000KM2

(Bands 3-6-7 - worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov)

[jdallen]

Nice clear 7/29/2016 shot of the Lincoln Sea approaches to Nares strait.  The strait is completely open, and ice from the Lincoln is now being exported to Baffin.  Detail shows just how broken up this ice is, and vulnerable to any sort of force.

(Edit:  Added comparable shot from 2013)

[Juan C. García]

Nice clear 7/29/2016 shot of the Lincoln Sea approaches to Nares strait.  The strait is completely open, and ice from the Lincoln is now being exported to Baffin.  Detail shows just how broken up this ice is, and vulnerable to any sort of force.

(Edit:  Added comparable shot from 2013)

On the above pictures it can be seen the "greening of the Arctic". Of course, that means that the permafrost is melting. 

[Neven]

I find this graphic very disturbing.  I haven't looked at SST's for a while and this made my jaw drop.

Enormous heat built up in the North Atlantic/Greenland Sea/Barents Sea with ominous implications for our coming fall and winter weather.

Absolutely. At EGU 2016 I talked to a scientist from AWI who says that the situation in Barentsz/Kara possibly has implications for winter in Europe. If so, there might be a cold one coming.

Here's a comparison I made today of DMI SST anomalies this year (on the right) with 2015 (middle) and 2012 (left):

[effbeh]

Absolutely. At EGU 2016 I talked to a scientist from AWI who says that the situation in Barentsz/Kara possibly has implications for winter in Europe. If so, there might be a cold one coming.

Could you please elaborate a little?  Which causality exists between the situation in Barents/Kara and the European winter?