Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 842171 times)

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1199
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4200 on: August 21, 2016, 01:18:42 AM »
Thanks Jim and Tzupancic. That does explain it.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 01:26:07 AM by Tigertown »

JayW

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 289
    • View Profile
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

APMartie2

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4202 on: August 21, 2016, 01:55:03 AM »
Tigertown - there is also a small island underneath that area of ice that does not seem to budge. Tobias Island, only discovered in 1993 (Wikipedia uses term "only determined with accuracy in 1993")

Espen has its location marked on his NE Greenland Map in Greenland place names thread but Tobias Is. does not appear in the Google Earth version I have on my computer.

slow wing

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 512
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4203 on: August 21, 2016, 03:11:10 AM »
Eagerly awaiting the University of Bremen sea ice concentration map for 20 August, which usually arrives in about an hour's time at http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png


Meanwhile, 19 August is one of the dates in Neven's excellent year-to-year comparison plots - see below.

To my eyes the ice looks more vulnerable already this year than in any previous year in the plots, including 2012. And that's not even to mention the storm currently off the Canadian Arctic coast or the forecast later storm(s).

But the best comparison for this date between 2012 and 2016 comes from Wipneus' graphic of
AMSR2 sea ice concentration data provided just recently by University of Hamburg - see second graphic.

That is a screen shot taken from Wipneus' hugely informative animation comparing 2012 and 2016 for dates from 9 to 19 August and posted by Wipneus here on his Home Brew thread.

Thanks to Wipneus as well as all the scientists and others who give us eyes to see what is going on in the Arctic.

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1199
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4204 on: August 21, 2016, 05:46:27 AM »
This is a  rather trivial question, really, but what was the final Arctic Sea Ice Area numbers at the end of the 2012 melt season. I mean the extent is common knowledge, but I have searched the threads for the minimum area until I was cross eyed. I trust that many of you know by heart or at least right where to look.

Adam Ash

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 189
    • View Profile
    • The 100 metre line
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4205 on: August 21, 2016, 06:42:49 AM »
To see a lovely example of ice going 'poof' check out the last bit of the OBuoy #14 video from say 10 August onward.
http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/movie

And to complete that impression look at the most recent image too.  Calm as a millpond at 21 0401.
http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/camera

slow wing

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 512
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4206 on: August 21, 2016, 07:39:09 AM »
This is a  rather trivial question, really, but what was the final Arctic Sea Ice Area numbers at the end of the 2012 melt season. I mean the extent is common knowledge, but I have searched the threads for the minimum area until I was cross eyed. I trust that many of you know by heart or at least right where to look.

We used to have polls for this in past years - here is the August 2015 version.

It shows the Cryosphere Today minimum Arctic sea ice area for any day in 2012 was 2.234 million km2.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 07:52:07 AM by slow wing »

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 952
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4207 on: August 21, 2016, 08:57:21 AM »
00z op ECMWF run has a minor GAC at D9 bottoming out at 968 hpa. Interesting to see if we will get more GACs this season.

Rob Dekker

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 283
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4208 on: August 21, 2016, 09:22:09 AM »
This is a  rather trivial question, really, but what was the final Arctic Sea Ice Area numbers at the end of the 2012 melt season. I mean the extent is common knowledge, but I have searched the threads for the minimum area until I was cross eyed. I trust that many of you know by heart or at least right where to look.

NSIDC's monthly average Sea Ice "area" is reported here :
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_area_v2.txt

For September 2012, NSIDC reports 2.37+0.029=2.399 M km^2 sea ice "area".

Darvince

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 146
    • View Profile
    • NSIDC Daily
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4209 on: August 21, 2016, 10:09:41 AM »
00z op ECMWF run has a minor GAC at D9 bottoming out at 968 hpa. Interesting to see if we will get more GACs this season.
I am beginning to suspect that we've crossed the threshold for the temperature difference between the Barents and the main Arctic that GACs will just keep generating until that difference lessens as Barents SSTs start to fall with winter.

12Patrick

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 133
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4210 on: August 21, 2016, 11:37:04 AM »
If you want the summertime Arctic Ice back tell the climate scientists to computer model my Ocean Tunnels. TYVM....

Metamemesis

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 36
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4211 on: August 21, 2016, 11:48:55 AM »
In addition to the direct melting/dispersal impact of the August Avalanche of Storms, the current storm and predicted storm (forecast to hit 963 on Wed morning: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016082100&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=203) has relatively high sustained wind speeds which will continue to push large amounts of ice into the Svalbard Kill Zone and the Fram Straight. FWIW, I think there's plenty of stamina left in this melting season, in terms of moving ice to warmer waters.

(edit) There's also a fun tool on Windytv to see predicted wave heights, although I don't know how accurate it is, or what source/model it uses. FWIW it's showing swells of up to 3 metres heading into the heart of the CAB on Tuesday morning: https://www.windyty.com/?waves,2016-08-23-09,85.400,-35.937,4
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 12:10:23 PM by Metamemesis »

iceman

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 213
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4212 on: August 21, 2016, 12:14:38 PM »
   ....  Lower-level winds are picking up considerable warmth and moisture from Barents and Kara, which seems to contribute to the re-intensification of the central low.

There is a huge difference between the major 2 types of cyclones: the tropical cyclones and the mid-latitude cyclones. The latter is what is formed in arctic.
The difference is form where they derive their power(energy).

 In the tropical cyclones(called hurricanes in the Atlantic or typhoons in the Pacific mainly) the energy is being derived from the condensation of moist air(latent heat), i.e ultimately from warm waters. The tropical cyclones have warm cores and have no fronts.

In the mid-latitude cyclones(like in the arctic and mid latitudes) the energy is being derived from the horizontal temperature gradient in the atmosphere and not from the sea. They are also cold core systems and "carry" fronts with them. Their movement and intensification is lead mainly from above, from upper level lows and ultimately from the jet stream.
    ....

Thanks for the explanation.  Does the "mid-latitude cyclone" description fit the one arriving on the 22nd, which appears to sustain above-normal temperatures near its core through the minimum?
     Noting that this one develops over Barents, I wonder whether the "Atlantification" theme discussed elsewhere is blurring the distinction between the two types of cyclones.

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3015
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4213 on: August 21, 2016, 12:39:56 PM »
There's also a fun tool on Windytv to see predicted wave heights, although I don't know how accurate it is, or what source/model it uses.


It uses WaveWatch III data, and appears to have recently added ECMWF as an alternative too. You may wish to peruse:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/tag/waves/

and/or:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.0.html

also? Personally I'd take the predicted waves/swells with a pinch of salt, but YMMV?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

greatdying2

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 326
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4214 on: August 21, 2016, 12:45:24 PM »
Mankind breaks North Pole's heart.

werther

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 696
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4215 on: August 21, 2016, 01:35:29 PM »
That's a great symbolic image, Greatdying!

However, reality is intricately more interesting. In addition to my post at the blog, I think I should post here too given the CAD-check I did this morning on yesterdays' MODIS tiles.
The most striking difference between day 233 now and the CAD I have on day 235 2012 is the size of the safe 'mesh pack'.
Yesterday, its mesh structure could be seen on a swath just N of Nares Strait. In the Lincoln Sea, about 200Kkm2. The cyclone has contributed to structure loss N of the CAA.
In '12, day 235, the mesh structure was clearly visible and measured about 1 Mkm2.

In sense of quality, 2016 is obviously the worst...

greatdying2

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 326
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4216 on: August 21, 2016, 01:50:59 PM »
Fully agree Werther, this year is definitely worse than 2012, regardless where extent ends up. Perhaps just before zero ice, we will have a nice smear of low concentration ice virtually everywhere. This has been said many times before, but perhaps now we are actually seeing it...

Thawing Thunder

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 57
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4217 on: August 21, 2016, 04:05:15 PM »
After producing some rather simple GIF-animations for the forum, I became a bit fascinated by the possibilities of that technique. Played around a bit, and here is the result  :P
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 05:21:12 PM by Thawing Thunder »

budmantis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1073
  • "Be the change you wish to see in this world." MG
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4218 on: August 21, 2016, 04:25:49 PM »
Excellent analogy TT.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1199
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4219 on: August 21, 2016, 05:31:16 PM »
Thank you very much to slow wing and Rob Dekker regarding my question about minimum area for 2012. Seeing now that we are about to go below 3M km2 in area now, with the time left for this season, it looks to me like we could at the very least have a tie in this regard. Considering all the dispersion we have had this year, and everyone having noted the shape the Sea Ice is in, maybe area and volume should become the more important factors now. I know I am by no means the first to say this, probably about the 99th. I feel pretty strongly that the shape the Arctic is in is affecting  the whole world right before our very eyes. It has been a bad year in my part of the world and many other areas too. SIE has  more to lose over the next few weeks, although its not likely to break the record at this point. I just don't think the climate cares about the record.

seaicesailor

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1247
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4220 on: August 21, 2016, 06:47:09 PM »
Extent may decrease slowly again, or even increase, from 23 to 25. The Aug 24 Hycom drift map also suggests CAB area may take a further dip.
The direction ice pack is taking is not good, further drops of extent all around the ice pack in the following weeks excluding the CAA-Greenland wall.


Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 3412
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4221 on: August 21, 2016, 07:10:17 PM »
Nice images. I'll be using them for the next update, if that's okay, Thawing Thunder and greatdying2.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1199
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4222 on: August 21, 2016, 07:11:03 PM »
Off NE Greenland, this huge amount of ice is breaking away and moving slowly, but east or south it's got a one way ticket.

seaicesailor

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1247
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4223 on: August 21, 2016, 07:31:31 PM »
Off NE Greenland, this huge amount of ice is breaking away and moving slowly, but east or south it's got a one way ticket.

At yhe upper left corner of the pic, the rhomboid blocks are some of the MYI from the sanctuary, that Werther describes, about to melt out. If we sum these and what is gone at Beaufort this must has been as bad year for MYI as past year.

greatdying2

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 326
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4224 on: August 21, 2016, 07:39:47 PM »
Nice images. I'll be using them for the next update, if that's okay, Thawing Thunder and greatdying2.
Certainly.  :)

seaicesailor

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1247
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4225 on: August 21, 2016, 07:43:29 PM »
The continuation of the 48h GAC part II is scary as well according to GFS 12Z, the low staying at Kara for quite a while. This is beyond 120h.

2phil4u

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 9
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4226 on: August 21, 2016, 07:54:31 PM »
I ask myself if the storms are in some ways (not in all) not that bad for feature.
I think about water with highter salt coming up from 30m depth and now because freezing point is lower, the ocean can give more heat to space in winter.
And low temperatures at 945 levels in the north region, maybe there is a point with massive refreeze there, data since yesterday from wipneus shows a stop in total iceloss in area and extent.
If temperatures keep low for some time, maybe something happens like showed with the mixing machine.
The energie in north was mixed, so in winter more energie can go to space, but i read also, that much ice is going to fraim streat export and this is surely bad for future season.
But i believe in negative forcing in north, the less ice, the more heat can go to space, but of course i also know that if in summer, there is very low ice, temperature goes up because of lower albedo.
But i have a good feeling about extent minimum and area, not saying next season will be great, but looking at temperatures the main difference between the 80s and now is the winter temperatures not  the summer.

12Patrick

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 133
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4227 on: August 21, 2016, 08:15:28 PM »
<Please don't spam this thread or any other thread than the one pertaining to your ocean tunnels idea. Thanks, N.>
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 02:55:42 AM by Neven »

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3015
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4228 on: August 21, 2016, 08:47:58 PM »
The Central Arctic is still rather hazy at visual frequencies, so here's an area not too far from the North Pole this morning courtesy of Sentinel 1A:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2016-images/#CAB
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

jdallen

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2360
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4229 on: August 21, 2016, 09:12:31 PM »
The Central Arctic is still rather hazy at visual frequencies, so here's an area not too far from the North Pole this morning courtesy of Sentinel 1A:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2016-images/#CAB

Very nice.  I shall have to sample more of Sentinel's output.

That's about 15,000KM2 of ~40%+ open water in that image, well above 85N.
This space for Rent.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 958
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4230 on: August 21, 2016, 09:21:24 PM »
ITP 93 is at 85.1388 N  1.1599 E.  It is showing 32.9951 salinity seawater at the surface and 35.1947 salinity at ~ 25 meters. Although surface seawater temperatures are -1.83 any mixing of surface waters with the next GAC rolling thru nearby will result in an increase in salinity and bottom melt will proceed. Extent nearby is increasing possibly due to melt pond refreeze but a salinity of 35 will still result in bottom melt down to -1.8
 Maybe someone can give the melting temp of seawater in 33 ppt and 34 ppt salinity seawater?
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 01:22:17 AM by Bruce Steele »

Nick_Naylor

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 289
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4231 on: August 21, 2016, 10:38:52 PM »
NSIDC states:
"Fresh water freezes at 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit), but the freezing point of sea water varies. For every 5 ppt increase in salinity, the freezing point decreases by 0.28 degrees Celsius (0.5 degrees Fahrenheit); thus, in polar regions with an ocean salinity of 35 ppt, the water begins to freeze at -1.8 degrees Celsius (28.8 degrees Fahrenheit)."

Thus:

ppt   Freezing point
33   -1.69
34   -1.74
35   -1.8

Tealight

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 243
    • View Profile
    • CryosphereComputing
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4232 on: August 21, 2016, 11:00:49 PM »
The Central Arctic is still rather hazy at visual frequencies, so here's an area not too far from the North Pole this morning courtesy of Sentinel 1A:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2016-images/#CAB

Very nice.  I shall have to sample more of Sentinel's output.

That's about 15,000KM2 of ~40%+ open water in that image, well above 85N.

Is the 40% open water an educated guess or some mathematical analysis with an image program? I did write a phyton script which analyses total brightness/ice concentration in an image and could use another verification.

For the image Jim Hunt posted it calculates 62.8% ice concentration and 37.2% open water. The red lines and text are counted as ice as well because they are so bright.  Real open water should therefore be around 39-40%.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 11:07:24 PM by Tealight »

werther

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 696
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4233 on: August 21, 2016, 11:01:25 PM »
Tigertown, SeaIceSailor,
Yes, those rhomboid floes SW of Flade Isblink Greenland originate in the 'safe haven'. But they are well disconnected. The 'mesh pack' boundary is now about 400km to the NW.
Partly, the ice in between has lost structure. Partly, those rhomboid floes have travelled S. They will disappear through Fram Strait. Another 10K MYI lost...

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 958
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4234 on: August 21, 2016, 11:19:36 PM »
Thanks Nick, I guess there isn't  much chance of bottom melt at ITP 93 unless it moves into warmer waters , I don't think upwelling will pull warmer waters from 100 +meters.

12Patrick

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 133
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4235 on: August 21, 2016, 11:20:03 PM »
You guys should be learning about solutions..

RoxTheGeologist

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 170
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4236 on: August 21, 2016, 11:47:07 PM »
You guys should be learning about solutions..


This is a really useful resource on density and freezing point at different salinities

http://linkingweatherandclimate.com/ocean/waterdensity.php

RoxTheGeologist

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 170
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4237 on: August 22, 2016, 12:16:17 AM »
Thanks Nick, I guess there isn't  much chance of bottom melt at ITP 93 unless it moves into warmer waters , I don't think upwelling will pull warmer waters from 100 +meters.


33 ppt salt seems very high for surface waters in the middle of the pack during melt. It should be more like 28 ppt. It would suggest that the halocline is very poorly developed, and that there isn't a lot of resistance to vertical mixing.

Looking at the profile history is very interesting! The halocline seems to have become much weaker over the last 20 days.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=148496



Thawing Thunder

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 57
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4238 on: August 22, 2016, 12:19:03 AM »

This is a really useful resource on density and freezing point at different salinities

http://linkingweatherandclimate.com/ocean/waterdensity.php


If I understood it right, then the salinity from the deeper water, once moved to the surface by the storm, avoids freezing not only because of its higher salinity, but also, and even more, by convection: Once the saltwater cools near its freezing point, it also reaches its highest density and sinks down into the ocean where it mixes with warmer water - the opposite effect appears with freshwater, where an upper layer freezes above the densest water (which in that case is 4 degrees "warm"). Is that correct?

But how does the arctic freeze every year despite that convection? Must the water cool near freezing point many meters down into the depth? Or does the surface freeze by shock? O did I get it all wrong?

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1812
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4239 on: August 22, 2016, 12:56:21 AM »
You guys should be learning about solutions..


Solutions can be found down the hall in the Policy and Solutions Department.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,16.0.html

jdallen

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2360
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4240 on: August 22, 2016, 01:16:16 AM »
The Central Arctic is still rather hazy at visual frequencies, so here's an area not too far from the North Pole this morning courtesy of Sentinel 1A:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2016-images/#CAB

Very nice.  I shall have to sample more of Sentinel's output.

That's about 15,000KM2 of ~40%+ open water in that image, well above 85N.

Is the 40% open water an educated guess or some mathematical analysis with an image program? I did write a phyton script which analyses total brightness/ice concentration in an image and could use another verification.

For the image Jim Hunt posted it calculates 62.8% ice concentration and 37.2% open water. The red lines and text are counted as ice as well because they are so bright.  Real open water should therefore be around 39-40%.
Educated guess.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2360
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4241 on: August 22, 2016, 01:21:47 AM »

This is a really useful resource on density and freezing point at different salinities

http://linkingweatherandclimate.com/ocean/waterdensity.php


If I understood it right, then the salinity from the deeper water, once moved to the surface by the storm, avoids freezing not only because of its higher salinity, but also, and even more, by convection: Once the saltwater cools near its freezing point, it also reaches its highest density and sinks down into the ocean where it mixes with warmer water - the opposite effect appears with freshwater, where an upper layer freezes above the densest water (which in that case is 4 degrees "warm"). Is that correct?

But how does the arctic freeze every year despite that convection? Must the water cool near freezing point many meters down into the depth? Or does the surface freeze by shock? O did I get it all wrong?

I'd take this to the questions thread.
This space for Rent.

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1199
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4242 on: August 22, 2016, 01:30:42 AM »
You guys should be learning about solutions..


Solutions can be found down the hall in the Policy and Solutions Department.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,16.0.html
Go past the restrooms on the right. If you see the breakroom, you went too far.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 01:49:57 AM by Tigertown »

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 958
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4243 on: August 22, 2016, 02:07:13 AM »
Rox, There are two very different water regimes in the Arctic, the Atlantic side and the Beaufort .
If you go to the ITP WHOI data site you can look through some of the completed active and competed missions. Lots of buoy's have issues so it takes some watching to see good buoy's and recognize compromised ones. If you look at ITP 91  deployed in Sept 2015 and completed Feb. 2016 you will see a surface salinity at about 32 and it follows a path similar to ITP 93, the Atlantic side. ITP 60 deployed in Sept. 2012 and sending profiles until Dec. 2012 also on the Atlantic side shows similar salinity profiles as ITP 91 . I agree the  ITP 93 profile shows shoaling of the halocline over the last two months . I don't think the buoy is broken and I wish we had more buoy profiles currently working to compare with but we don't.
 If you look at ( plot of ITP T&S Contours )ITP 85 or ITP 78 you will see what last year in the Beaufort looked like. You can see pacific warm water, in yellow on the temp profile,, and you can also see fresh warm surface waters develop near the end of these buoy runs. There is a lot of freshwater from rivers that influence the Beaufort but the relatively fresh Pacific warm waters that ride over the deeper Atlantic waters are what make the halocline profile very different from the Atlantic side of the Arctic.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 02:12:49 AM by Bruce Steele »

Thawing Thunder

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 57
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4244 on: August 22, 2016, 03:48:23 AM »
I'd take this to the questions thread.

Done. Thank you!

Michael Hauber

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 659
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4245 on: August 22, 2016, 05:25:09 AM »
I've read a bunch of comments in this forum that the sea ice is in a horrible state compared to 2012.  The same comments were being made in July, yet the GAC 2012 version destroyed all the ESS ice completely, whereas this year it just spun it around some and reduced the total extent/area figures by a somewhat above average, but nowhere near remarkable amount.

I think the ice is in a better state than some give it credit for.  Still bad and on a long term downward trend of course.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1831
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4246 on: August 22, 2016, 05:52:02 AM »
????

What an odd conclusion to come to.

Isn't this year's cyclone a bit later in the year than the GAC of '12?

Isn't every day during this time of year crucial wrt declining temps and reduced insolation?

Isn't it exactly those differences that distinguish whether a cyclone or other strong storm destroys ice or simply creates more ice?

...

It could in fact be the case that ice conditions are more robust than some here are thinking, but there are a lot of other factors that could explain why this GAS is having a different effect than the on in '12, don't you think?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

seaicesailor

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1247
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4247 on: August 22, 2016, 06:12:39 AM »
I've read a bunch of comments in this forum that the sea ice is in a horrible state compared to 2012.  The same comments were being made in July, yet the GAC 2012 version destroyed all the ESS ice completely, whereas this year it just spun it around some and reduced the total extent/area figures by a somewhat above average, but nowhere near remarkable amount.

I think the ice is in a better state than some give it credit for.  Still bad and on a long term downward trend of course.
Wasn't the ESS 2012 ice a "should have gone anyway" ice? I agree.
From Wipneus animation it is clear the ESS arm is in much better state to start with in August 1, then the storm hits in a more central part, and happens later in the season. However I am confident this ice is doomed too. May be wrong.
Actually the storm has been well inside the pack that it is pretty amazing to see extent going down with the divergence it caused.

Edited some. Got your post wrong at first :-)
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 06:21:54 AM by seaicesailor »

abbottisgone

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4248 on: August 22, 2016, 07:20:49 AM »
Off NE Greenland, this huge amount of ice is breaking away and moving slowly, but east or south it's got a one way ticket.

Are the crosshairs the northpole?
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

budmantis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1073
  • "Be the change you wish to see in this world." MG
    • View Profile
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4249 on: August 22, 2016, 08:53:56 AM »
Off NE Greenland, this huge amount of ice is breaking away and moving slowly, but east or south it's got a one way ticket.

Are the crosshairs the northpole?

Glad to have you back AIB, but to me, this question makes no sense at all.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche