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Author Topic: The 2016/2017 freezing season  (Read 428455 times)

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1100 on: November 29, 2016, 09:05:36 PM »
Hi S.i.S.!

I agree that until we know more we are just guessing blind?

Did the Halocline disappear during the alleged 'ice free' climate optimum or did it just further erode the Halocline that built under glaciation?

Are we looking at 8,000 yrs of 'building up'of the Halocline or are we looking at the remnants of millions of years of Glaciation upon Glaciation building up the unique stratification of this Ocean?

Do you see how the answer to the above might be important?

I'm buying into this, and the only thing I'll add to it is that the evidence from the past is that of sudden climatic change.

Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1101 on: November 29, 2016, 10:41:21 PM »
I don't deny the possibilities Gray Wolf. All I can say (and I am way off topic now) is that the case for summer ice free Arctic as soon as 2020 is very strong based on what we ourselves are witnessing every summer, the case for year round ice free Arctic in this century, well not so much because of the required absurdly large heat anomaly, the dramatic change in ocean (and atmospheric) structure, et cetera

All it needs is dynamics in the region in the absence of a stable polar vortex. This will result in a constant heat influx. Add atmospheric moistening to the mix and you don't even need to look into methane and biospheric changes.

ritter

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1102 on: November 29, 2016, 10:50:38 PM »
I wonder if the "when will the Arctic be ice free in the winter" is really anything more than an academic exercise (not that it isn't worthwhile). I suspect the consequences of an ice free summer will be so extreme, we won't have much time to muse over when winters will go ice free as well. In other words, canaries can only get so dead.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1103 on: November 29, 2016, 11:37:26 PM »
I wonder if the "when will the Arctic be ice free in the winter" is really anything more than an academic exercise (not that it isn't worthwhile). I suspect the consequences of an ice free summer will be so extreme, we won't have much time to muse over when winters will go ice free as well. In other words, canaries can only get so dead.

nicely said :-)
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1104 on: November 29, 2016, 11:51:00 PM »
I wonder if the "when will the Arctic be ice free in the winter" is really anything more than an academic exercise (not that it isn't worthwhile). I suspect the consequences of an ice free summer will be so extreme, we won't have much time to muse over when winters will go ice free as well. In other words, canaries can only get so dead.
I guess so, seeing just the effects of low ice on the world.

And speaking of methane.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1105 on: November 30, 2016, 12:26:37 AM »
RoxtheGeologist
"It's the halocline that preserves the ice;" or vice versa [?], the ice damping down wave action is what allows the Halocline to persist.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1106 on: November 30, 2016, 01:14:33 AM »
I'm buying into this, and the only thing I'll add to it is that the evidence from the past is that of sudden climatic change.

And there I was thinking that "sudden" in the ice core record was 2,000 years or so.  Of course that was without Human forcing.

Back a bit on topic, I see the Atlantic side finally beginning to relent and start to freeze.  Still very slow there and towards the Hudson bay.  I'm thinking about 2 weeks before it finally catches up with 2012.  If it even does that before next year.
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1107 on: November 30, 2016, 02:52:31 AM »
I wonder if the "when will the Arctic be ice free in the winter" is really anything more than an academic exercise (not that it isn't worthwhile). I suspect the consequences of an ice free summer will be so extreme, we won't have much time to muse over when winters will go ice free as well. In other words, canaries can only get so dead.

I'm not utterly convinced the Arctic will elect the Summer as the time to become effectively ice free.  I think once the switch has flipped it is more a matter of time for stuff to melt than insolation -- and I think the switch flipped last december.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1108 on: November 30, 2016, 03:00:16 AM »
I'm buying into this, and the only thing I'll add to it is that the evidence from the past is that of sudden climatic change.

And there I was thinking that "sudden" in the ice core record was 2,000 years or so.  Of course that was without Human forcing.

Back a bit on topic, I see the Atlantic side finally beginning to relent and start to freeze.  Still very slow there and towards the Hudson bay.  I'm thinking about 2 weeks before it finally catches up with 2012.  If it even does that before next year.
I seem to remember reading indications of sea level rises of meters in less than 10 years in sediment records...  Rises would be warming, I think.

JMP

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1109 on: November 30, 2016, 04:24:47 AM »
I'm buying into this, and the only thing I'll add to it is that the evidence from the past is that of sudden climatic change.

And there I was thinking that "sudden" in the ice core record was 2,000 years or so.  Of course that was without Human forcing.

Back a bit on topic, I see the Atlantic side finally beginning to relent and start to freeze.  Still very slow there and towards the Hudson bay.  I'm thinking about 2 weeks before it finally catches up with 2012.  If it even does that before next year.
I seem to remember reading indications of sea level rises of meters in less than 10 years in sediment records...  Rises would be warming, I think.

I think we've now moved from Geology to Physics being the most relevant science to be able to give us a timescale.    :-\

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1110 on: November 30, 2016, 04:37:47 AM »
I'm buying into this, and the only thing I'll add to it is that the evidence from the past is that of sudden climatic change.

And there I was thinking that "sudden" in the ice core record was 2,000 years or so.  Of course that was without Human forcing.

Back a bit on topic, I see the Atlantic side finally beginning to relent and start to freeze.  Still very slow there and towards the Hudson bay.  I'm thinking about 2 weeks before it finally catches up with 2012.  If it even does that before next year.
I seem to remember reading indications of sea level rises of meters in less than 10 years in sediment records...  Rises would be warming, I think.

You can always build a wall, and make the fish pay for it.

Oh yeah, the fish will probably be dead from the acidity.

Darvince

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1111 on: November 30, 2016, 05:07:10 AM »
I'm buying into this, and the only thing I'll add to it is that the evidence from the past is that of sudden climatic change.

And there I was thinking that "sudden" in the ice core record was 2,000 years or so.  Of course that was without Human forcing.

Back a bit on topic, I see the Atlantic side finally beginning to relent and start to freeze.  Still very slow there and towards the Hudson bay.  I'm thinking about 2 weeks before it finally catches up with 2012.  If it even does that before next year.
I seem to remember reading indications of sea level rises of meters in less than 10 years in sediment records...  Rises would be warming, I think.

That would be from retrograde glacier collapse, like PIG, Thwaites, or Jakobshavn. Sea level rise due to thermal expansion at the current whiplash-inducing pace of 0.2C/decade and rising is only causing 2mm/yr of sea level rise. Even the most rapid temperature increases would be at most 1cm/yr due to heating.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1112 on: November 30, 2016, 05:19:40 AM »
I'm buying into this, and the only thing I'll add to it is that the evidence from the past is that of sudden climatic change.

And there I was thinking that "sudden" in the ice core record was 2,000 years or so.  Of course that was without Human forcing.

Back a bit on topic, I see the Atlantic side finally beginning to relent and start to freeze.  Still very slow there and towards the Hudson bay.  I'm thinking about 2 weeks before it finally catches up with 2012.  If it even does that before next year.
I seem to remember reading indications of sea level rises of meters in less than 10 years in sediment records...  Rises would be warming, I think.

That would be from retrograde glacier collapse, like PIG, Thwaites, or Jakobshavn. Sea level rise due to thermal expansion at the current whiplash-inducing pace of 0.2C/decade and rising is only causing 2mm/yr of sea level rise. Even the most rapid temperature increases would be at most 1cm/yr due to heating.
Ever since I heard of the melt water pulse 1A and the calculated radiative forcing change during the time of its occurrence in 1998, I've thought the calculations of sea level rise done without sudden glacier/icesheet-destruction are only an academic enterprise. You could say it's an alarmist 'lalala, can't hear you'-song.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1113 on: November 30, 2016, 05:51:07 AM »
I am not so sure we have begun to see just yet what H2O as a GHG can really do. I only think we have just started to see a glimpse. Moisture in the atmosphere can really magnify a little warmth. If only a little more melting of ice sheets and multiple glaciers all over the world adds enough to the system to cause more storms, and more storms cause more melt and more humidity. Maybe not overnight, but sooner than later its gonna get rough.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1114 on: November 30, 2016, 06:43:03 AM »
@ Tigertown
Exactly, it's like the wunderground member Patrap says - we're entering into the Climate 2.0.  It's clear that many established climate indexes and canons need to be considered in a new context.  For example, even though the ENSO's nino indexes are similar between 1997-98 and 2015-16, we see a significantly more powerful moisture signal in 2015-16, in large part due to global warming and the greater capacity of warmer air to carry water.  (thnxs Fishoutofwater for graphic below?)

I also think that all the anomalously warm pacific waters adjacent ENSO regions mightily fed into this boom of moisture and amplification of the Hadely Cell. That amplification caused the rain to push way north of southern cal, delivering unprecedented nino rain to the pacific northwest - and delivering extra heat/moisture to arctic and antarctic.  The good news is that nino is gone.  The bad news is that a moderate nino in the future could push our embattled arctic over the edge, and it seems we've entered a multiyear PDO phase where stronger ninos are more likely.

Also note that during super ninos of the past - such as '82 and '97 the polar vortex and jet speed up and straitened themselves out more because the ninos increased the temperature gradient between the equator/midlatitudes and the pole.  In 2015-2016 that did not happen nearly as much, most likely because the pole has warmed that much since 97. (in chart below, scroll right to see offscreen 2015-2016 moisture spike)

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1115 on: November 30, 2016, 02:10:20 PM »
Thank you soooo much for that graphic ice shieldz!!! I live in one of the areas badly impacted by flooding last boxing day ( Calder Valley , UK) and the graphic helps me understand how we could have seen such rainfall totals as we did over December 25th/26th :)

It does also show how easy it is to get warm , moist air into the Basin? For years I had been battling Deniers every time we saw a cold outbreak impact somewhere in the N.H. They would act as if this 'outbreak' was because the Arctic was expanding and not merely being displaced as WAA rushed in behind to replace it. Last December's Arctic storm brought melt to the pole and since then we have been able to ask them 'how' such an event could be possible were the Arctic stable?
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1116 on: November 30, 2016, 02:53:04 PM »
Think inside the box more often.

Make the case, for your claim, within your post.

Binned and milestone thinking don’t work with continuous phenomenona.

Magical thinking in personal undeveloped, unsupportable, and unpublishable theories is a better fit at relief-valve forums.

How many people here believe that the symptoms of atheriosclorosis BEGIN with a heart attack or stroke?

That’s quite wrong — the symptoms manifest themselves long before 100% blockage is achieved: fatigue in the evening, shortness of breath climbing stairs, poor night’s sleep, lack of energy, indigestion, heartburn, occasional light-headedness or dizziness, anxiety, feelings of chest constriction or discomfort, swelling in the ankles, feet or neck, palpitations, irregular heartbeat, lung crackles, heart murmur, or diminishing math skills and reading comprehension.

You, dear sedentary internet surfer, already have coronary heart disease — some degree of blockage of the arteries that bring oxygen to the heart muscle. Your carotid artery, supplying the brain, may be even worse off. Plaque buildup began in your childhood; indeed your food, weight, exercise regime and stress level have been sub-optimal for decades.

Gradual hardening of the arteries can escalate to stable angina, unstable angina, silent ischemia, arterial spasms, full-blown occlusion, coronary thrombosis, plaque rupture, myocardial infarction, myocardial necrosis, micro-strokes, and sudden cardiac arrest. Too bad you didn’t have a stent put in back at 50% blockage of the left main; two more at 70% occlusion of the proximal circumflex and left anterior descending, followed by a quintuple bypass at 80%. Now you’re looking at a ‘widowmaker’ and need to start interventional surgery within the next three minutes.
 
How many people here believe that the knock-on effects of Arctic sea ice loss BEGIN with the first ice-free season?

That’s quite wrong — the symptoms of the Arctic heat pump sending excess solar heat back to space manifest themselves long before the first 100% seasonal ice-free state is achieved: drought in the mid-latitudes, shortness of winter season, poor growing season, lack of energy dissipation in storms, indigestion of carbon dioxide by oceans, the heartburn of acidification, swelling of mean sea level, occasional dizziness in weather forecasts, feelings of heat index discomfort, temperature palpitations, increased atmospheric crackles, hearts of ice sheets melting, and diminishing food security and risk comprehension.

Too bad we all didn’t start riding bicycles back at 5% loss of the left main Beaufort, stop eating beef at 10% occlusion of the proximal circumflex West Spitzbergen Current, followed by living simply at 15% ice loss in the Laptev, and drastically reduce gratuitous personal consumption at 20% seasonal open water of the Chukchi. Now we’re looking at a ‘planetary widowmaker’ and need to adopt serious interventional risk management within the next three minutes.

The images below compare actual instances of coronary artery blockage to actual microwave pictures of Arctic Ocean sea ice loss.

Anonymized open source angiograms kindly provided by cardiac surgeon Mustafa Ahmed, MD; public domain AMSR2 sea ice concentrations microwave images generously updated daily by U Hamburg.

Sarat

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1117 on: November 30, 2016, 03:42:57 PM »
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/Arctic_freeze_slows_down

CryoSat volume update. Looks like tied with previous low for November...

Low, but is it better than expected with the current extent numbers and temperature anomalies?

PIOMAS was tying for the lowest last month, will be interesting to see their numbers in a few days.


« Last Edit: November 30, 2016, 04:03:40 PM by Sarat »

dnem

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1118 on: November 30, 2016, 03:49:10 PM »
Very clever A-Team.  To carry the analogy further, biological phenomena such as myocardial infarction are for all intents and purposes impossible to predict on a case by case basis.  One patient may carry on for decades with large blockages and another may be struck down quickly by a bolt from the blue.  Are the arctic and all the related and interacting phenomena so complex as to render their future behavior impossible to predict with any confidence?

CraigsIsland

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1119 on: November 30, 2016, 06:21:05 PM »
Very clever A-Team.  To carry the analogy further, biological phenomena such as myocardial infarction are for all intents and purposes impossible to predict on a case by case basis.  One patient may carry on for decades with large blockages and another may be struck down quickly by a bolt from the blue.  Are the arctic and all the related and interacting phenomena so complex as to render their future behavior impossible to predict with any confidence?

It is a clever analogy and I like the frame it's set in. We can have higher confidence in arctic models (not unlike the process for treatments for heart disease and the conditions that lead up to heart blockages) by funding the science to understand our earth and how to proceed. It's not impossible to predict, we just don't have a clearer understanding of what's to come. Keep fighting the good fight for that understanding!

EDIT: by "clearer understanding" I mean - scientific/statistical confidence. For the layperson: we know the genesis but not really the actual details of future events.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2016, 06:53:08 PM by CraigsIsland »

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1120 on: November 30, 2016, 08:38:54 PM »
I've noticed, over the years, that this whole confidence thing is a serious issue when dealing with denialists and politicians.

It's about the numbers.  When a scientist says 95% probability s/he means its about a certain as anything in life gets.  When  Politician hears that, s/he hears that there is quite a significant element of doubt in the result.  Otherwise it would be 100%.  Right?

Hansen said it best when dealing with media. Turn the question around.  If you ask the scientist whether an event happened because of GW, the answer will be equivocal.  However if you turn it around and ask, would this event have happened in this way without GW, the answer will be immediate and direct.  "Almost certainly not".

There is no need for more certainty or more statistics or much more granular information.  Just a different question.

Q:  Will we see sea level rise below 10cm in the next 50 years at the current rate of temperature and CO2 rise?
A:  Almost certainly not

Q:  Will we remain below the 2C level of warming over pre industrial, by 2070, on our current emissions profile and with the declining uptake of CO2 by the planet?
A:  Almost certainly not

Q:  Will we avoid the worst of climate driven impacts to our livable biosphere if we do not reduce our global CO2 emissions by 80%, from 1990 levels, by 2025?
A:  Almost certainly not.

That, when it's all said and done, is the only thing we need to do in order to change the "certainty" levels of the debate from a scientific standpoint.

It's also something politicians and press can understand.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1121 on: November 30, 2016, 08:48:06 PM »
I have a bit of an issue about the whole "Ice free in winter" debate.

If you look at the definition of parameters around "Too cold to snow", you see the very things we're talking about actually driving the snowfall events in the event that super cold air intrudes.

So let's say that the temp falls to -40C on full Arctic night, clear skies and high pressure.  The ocean, overly warm, will advect large amounts of moisture, as heat transport, which can then fall back to the sea as snow.  This snow, at -40C, creates a blanket which blocks the additional advection of heat and moisture from the sea and facilitates the creation of more ice.

I think it's going to take a lot more than _just_ oceanic heat to create an ice free winter.  It's going to take a significant change in the atmospheric constitution of the Arctic and a significant rise in general temperatures, before the system can't return to an ice state in Winter.

Of course once it has finally made it there the forcing effect of an ice free Arctic is going to feed back massively into the system, perpetuating the result.

I'm reminded of a demonstration at the Ice hotel in -32C conditions.  The guide leading the visit boiled water in a pan, then threw it up in the air.

It came down as snow!
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1122 on: November 30, 2016, 09:45:43 PM »
RoxtheGeologist
"It's the halocline that preserves the ice;" or vice versa [?], the ice damping down wave action is what allows the Halocline to persist.

Wave action (even big swell action) has a relatively short range in terms of induced mixing (tens of meters). Not enough to disrupt a structure of stratified ocean on the order of hundreds of meters. Moreover, the stratification under the mixing zone precisely inhibits any kind of vertical oscillations very rapidly. Ekman pumping or sinking is much more strong in forcing vertical movement thru the stratified layer, but the net vertical transport (for instance sinking due to Beaufort gyre current) is measured in cm meters per month or per year

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1344.msg59178.html#msg59178

Not the kind of timescale for a day-after-tomorrow scenario.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2016, 10:05:37 PM by seaicesailor »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1123 on: November 30, 2016, 09:47:17 PM »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1124 on: November 30, 2016, 10:02:52 PM »
Think inside the box more often.

Make the case, for your claim, within your post.

Binned and milestone thinking don’t work with continuous phenomenona.

Magical thinking in personal undeveloped, unsupportable, and unpublishable theories is a better fit at relief-valve forums.

How many people here believe that the symptoms of atheriosclorosis BEGIN with a heart attack or stroke?

That’s quite wrong — the symptoms manifest themselves long before 100% blockage is achieved: fatigue in the evening, shortness of breath climbing stairs, poor night’s sleep, lack of energy, indigestion, heartburn, occasional light-headedness or dizziness, anxiety, feelings of chest constriction or discomfort, swelling in the ankles, feet or neck, palpitations, irregular heartbeat, lung crackles, heart murmur, or diminishing math skills and reading comprehension.

You, dear sedentary internet surfer, already have coronary heart disease — some degree of blockage of the arteries that bring oxygen to the heart muscle. Your carotid artery, supplying the brain, may be even worse off. Plaque buildup began in your childhood; indeed your food, weight, exercise regime and stress level have been sub-optimal for decades.

Gradual hardening of the arteries can escalate to stable angina, unstable angina, silent ischemia, arterial spasms, full-blown occlusion, coronary thrombosis, plaque rupture, myocardial infarction, myocardial necrosis, micro-strokes, and sudden cardiac arrest. Too bad you didn’t have a stent put in back at 50% blockage of the left main; two more at 70% occlusion of the proximal circumflex and left anterior descending, followed by a quintuple bypass at 80%. Now you’re looking at a ‘widowmaker’ and need to start interventional surgery within the next three minutes.
 
How many people here believe that the knock-on effects of Arctic sea ice loss BEGIN with the first ice-free season?

That’s quite wrong — the symptoms of the Arctic heat pump sending excess solar heat back to space manifest themselves long before the first 100% seasonal ice-free state is achieved: drought in the mid-latitudes, shortness of winter season, poor growing season, lack of energy dissipation in storms, indigestion of carbon dioxide by oceans, the heartburn of acidification, swelling of mean sea level, occasional dizziness in weather forecasts, feelings of heat index discomfort, temperature palpitations, increased atmospheric crackles, hearts of ice sheets melting, and diminishing food security and risk comprehension.

Too bad we all didn’t start riding bicycles back at 5% loss of the left main Beaufort, stop eating beef at 10% occlusion of the proximal circumflex West Spitzbergen Current, followed by living simply at 15% ice loss in the Laptev, and drastically reduce gratuitous personal consumption at 20% seasonal open water of the Chukchi. Now we’re looking at a ‘planetary widowmaker’ and need to adopt serious interventional risk management within the next three minutes.

The images below compare actual instances of coronary artery blockage to actual microwave pictures of Arctic Ocean sea ice loss.

Anonymized open source angiograms kindly provided by cardiac surgeon Mustafa Ahmed, MD; public domain AMSR2 sea ice concentrations microwave images generously updated daily by U Hamburg.
You are a genius, enjoyed every bit of the reading, even the arterial spasms part :-)
Shutting down this now for a while

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1125 on: November 30, 2016, 10:27:17 PM »
I've noticed, over the years, that this whole confidence thing is a serious issue when dealing with denialists and politicians.

It's about the numbers.  When a scientist says 95% probability s/he means its about a certain as anything in life gets.  When  Politician hears that, s/he hears that there is quite a significant element of doubt in the result.  Otherwise it would be 100%.  Right?

Hansen said it best when dealing with media. Turn the question around.  If you ask the scientist whether an event happened because of GW, the answer will be equivocal.  However if you turn it around and ask, would this event have happened in this way without GW, the answer will be immediate and direct.  "Almost certainly not".

There is no need for more certainty or more statistics or much more granular information.  Just a different question.

Q:  Will we see sea level rise below 10cm in the next 50 years at the current rate of temperature and CO2 rise?
A:  Almost certainly not

Q:  Will we remain below the 2C level of warming over pre industrial, by 2070, on our current emissions profile and with the declining uptake of CO2 by the planet?
A:  Almost certainly not

Q:  Will we avoid the worst of climate driven impacts to our livable biosphere if we do not reduce our global CO2 emissions by 80%, from 1990 levels, by 2025?
A:  Almost certainly not.

That, when it's all said and done, is the only thing we need to do in order to change the "certainty" levels of the debate from a scientific standpoint.

It's also something politicians and press can understand.

very well pointed out as well i share your thoughts in the post that follows the quoted one :-)
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dnem

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1126 on: November 30, 2016, 11:00:56 PM »
I was using "confidence" in the colloquial, not statistical sense.  And I certainly did not mean to imply that there are not many, many aspects of the changing arctic and changing climate in general that are not blindingly obvious and confidently known by any definition.

I was only tagging on to A-Team's analogy to say that the system has so many interacting parts, like biological systems do, as to defy confident prediction about specific events, such as next summer's minimum, or the year of the first ice free winter, etc. 

Great piece on Neven in WaPo!

ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1127 on: November 30, 2016, 11:20:42 PM »
Tigertown  points to a great column in the Washington post about Neven's sabattical.

Quotes from Walt Meier, Axel Schweiger, and Larry Hamilton among others.

Check it out  :)

I would put this under the Articles thread but think it may need more of a front page venue.

He created a beloved blog about the melting Arctic. But it got harder and harder to write

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1128 on: November 30, 2016, 11:46:22 PM »
dnem,

After decades of watching and reading and voraciously reading the output of at least two climate summits, I'm always careful how I use the word "confidence".  I was on realclimate when one of the scientists involved in Copenhagen reported that he would "never" get involved in another one because of how the politicians used (and changed), his words.

Sorry if I stood on your toes.
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Geoff

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1129 on: November 30, 2016, 11:48:09 PM »


That is a bad graph - it looks like business as usual, and I can't really tell if the 2016 result is similar to earlier results. 

Needs some horizontal axe bars and some more historical records imo

CraigsIsland

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1130 on: December 01, 2016, 12:04:25 AM »
I was using "confidence" in the colloquial, not statistical sense.  And I certainly did not mean to imply that there are not many, many aspects of the changing arctic and changing climate in general that are not blindingly obvious and confidently known by any definition.

I was only tagging on to A-Team's analogy to say that the system has so many interacting parts, like biological systems do, as to defy confident prediction about specific events, such as next summer's minimum, or the year of the first ice free winter, etc. 

Great piece on Neven in WaPo!

I totally understand - esp. on "confidence" - thanks everyone.

Sarat

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1131 on: December 01, 2016, 12:18:46 AM »
Yes, Geoff can't disagree with that, know where I can get Cryosat monthly volume numbers?

The article is vague on how close the volume numbers were:

 "....the Arctic usually gains about 161 cubic km of ice per day in November, but this year’s growth has been about 10% lower, at 139 cubic km per day, with a total ice volume estimated to have accumulated to 10 500 cubic km by the end of the month.
This would essentially tie with conditions in the Novembers of 2011, when levels were at their lowest on record for this time of the year."

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1132 on: December 01, 2016, 02:11:20 AM »
That's a very complimentary article in the Washington Post about Neven & the blog. Perhaps it comes with his skill as a translator but he has a way of handling everything fairly, precisely and accurately. Obviously in an area of developing research no one can be perfectly accurate, but the fairness is essential to how well the blog and this forum have worked.

logicmanPatrick

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1133 on: December 01, 2016, 02:27:02 AM »
seaicesailor = Wave action (even big swell action) has a relatively short range in terms of induced mixing (tens of meters). Not enough to disrupt a structure of stratified ocean on the order of hundreds of meters. Moreover, the stratification under the mixing zone precisely inhibits any kind of vertical oscillations very rapidly.


The tides can be thought of as waves with very long wavelengths / ultra-low frequency.  Those waves can penetrate under the ice much further than wind-blown waves and have more energy. 

More info on tidal currents and resonance effects -

undated article 1995 ? - Investigation of the ice-tide interaction in the Arctic Ocean
http://www.ims.uaf.edu/tide/

Extracting tidal variability of sea ice concentration from AMSR-E passive microwave single-swath data: A case study of the Ross Sea
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235945642_Extracting_tidal_variability_of_sea_ice_concentration_from_AMSR-E_passive_microwave_single-swath_data_A_case_study_of_the_Ross_Sea

From 1994 - a great read -
The Polar Oceans and Their Role in Shaping the Global Environment
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230892132_The_Polar_Oceans_and_Their_Role_in_Shaping_the_Global_Environment

Finally, a much more recent great read -
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/16/1600223/-Arctic-Sea-Ice-Collapse-Has-Destabilized-the-Stratospheric-Lower-Atmospheric-Circulations


These recommended reads may belong elsewhere in this forum.  Please be gentle with me - I'm a newbie here.  :-)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1134 on: December 01, 2016, 02:33:08 AM »
These recommended reads may belong elsewhere in this forum.  Please be gentle with me - I'm a newbie here.  :-)

However, a most venerated newbie!

It is great to have you posting in the forum.

Best regards,
ASLR
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1135 on: December 01, 2016, 05:29:21 AM »
Volume; the big issue this season.
www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38138132

"There is likely to be about 10,500 cu km of Arctic sea-ice by the end of the week - a volume that would tie for the lowest on record for a November."

ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1136 on: December 01, 2016, 05:48:49 AM »
Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Nov 30, 2016:
Climatology: 1368.53
2016: 665.54
Anomaly: -702.98


Implied new ice thickness to date:
Lebedev
  Climatology: 1.084
  2016: 0.709
Berillo 
  Climatology: 0.877
  2016: 0.577
« Last Edit: December 01, 2016, 06:29:34 AM by ktonine »

bairgon

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1137 on: December 01, 2016, 01:39:53 PM »
A lurker asks...

I wanted to ask about probabilities.

Wipneus's graphs e.g. at https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/nsidc_global_area_normanomaly.png show that global sea ice area is something like 6 standard deviations from average. The current NSIDC chart shows that the Arctic is above 3 SDs from average.

If we assume that sea ice is in a normal distribution, then statistics suggest that we're in the 0.1% probability region for Arctic ice - see for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation.

I am aware that we have a small data set so the probabilities would need to be adjusted. In addition, there is a trend for the Arctic ice, so we should probably look at deviation from that trend rather than deviation from the long-term average.

In a natural chaotic system there are also years which are going to be outside the normal scope, leading to 100-year floods etc (I experienced one of those nearly 1 year ago in Lancaster, UK).

So, to my questions for more experienced members of the forum:

Has the probability of the overall arctic decline since 1979 been calculated?

What is the probability of the event we are seeing in the Arctic in 2016, shown as a deviation from the decline?

I assume that meterologists have models for Arctic weather. Does the current season fit into those models? If it's not catered for in the models, how far from expected is it?

I suppose I'm looking for confirmation of the 0.1% figure, which would be a much higher confidence level for climate change than the 95% level that was mentioned earlier.

werther

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1138 on: December 01, 2016, 08:24:49 PM »
This isn't coming through by posting in a dormant thread (Svalbard), so I'm putting it right on the volatile freezing season thread. I think it's important.....

What we’ve been following closely this fall does have consequences.
I hit on information about evacuations in Longyearbyen, Svalbard. Caused by unprecedented, torrential rains last month.

This is a pic from 7 November: Plataberget W of Longyearbyen, showing a landslide:



Looks like failing permafrost and constant arrival of Lows in the Arctic offer another illustration of the fast changes in the Arctic.

Through this link you can read the story:
http://icepeople.net/2016/11/07/alert-widespread-evacuations-ordered-as-storm-approaches/

werther

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1139 on: December 01, 2016, 09:27:26 PM »
An atmospheric feature that caught me about februari ’12 seems to have reappeared in a new form: the ‘Kara Bulge’.



Then, I suggested it might indicate the final release of warmth by the peripheral seas in that extreme Atlantic region.
Now, it dominates ever since the supposed freezing season set in mid September. This draws Lows and warm gusts into the Arctic. It was the set-up in ’11 and in  ’15.

Now, it is on absolute steroids.

I am still not sure about Cryosat. I haven’t changed my opinion that PIOMAS is structurally over-estimating volume. This present situation just has to have an impact on our precious sea-ice.
I stand with my forecasts about ’17 and-so-on. This is heading straight into the ‘black swan 17’- event. About 36% of the freezing season has passed. It will be such a hard time for deep freeze to bend this anomaly back….

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1140 on: December 01, 2016, 10:59:23 PM »
...

I am still not sure about Cryosat. I haven’t changed my opinion that PIOMAS is structurally over-estimating volume. This present situation just has to have an impact on our precious sea-ice.
I stand with my forecasts about ’17 and-so-on. This is heading straight into the ‘black swan 17’- event. About 36% of the freezing season has passed. It will be such a hard time for deep freeze to bend this anomaly back….

I'm betting for 2017 myself.  Only thing is, I think ice free might come after October in 2017 after a fairly cool (and very wet) Summer.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1141 on: December 01, 2016, 11:10:47 PM »
Can I assume this is world-wide?  Is there a way to get, say, for over 50 North?

(Edit:  Now that I've thought about it, what I really would want is a graph of degrees north of the equator over time for a given absolute humidity -- or TPW -- or some multicolor graph for ranges of Absolute Humidity.  Anything which would tend to show where there is desert climate and where there is ocean climate.)
« Last Edit: December 01, 2016, 11:20:27 PM by Jim Williams »

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1142 on: December 02, 2016, 01:18:49 AM »
@Jim Williams
Yes the precipitable water data in the chart represents all longitudes within designated latitudes.  You may be able to find precipitable water in arctic region or at least a close to arctic region at Remote Sensing Systems, Atmospheric Water Vapor page: http://www.remss.com/measurements/atmospheric-water-vapor

They have FTP accessible raw data that you'll need to chart in excel, etc.  You'll be prompted with an FTP login to download the data, just choose "Guest"

Also you can access their mapping front end onto some of their water vapor data here at the following link.  http://images.remss.com/cdr/climate_data_record_browse.html
The map below came from that page.

logicmanPatrick

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1143 on: December 02, 2016, 01:36:13 AM »
AbruptSLR - thank you for your very kind compliment.

Jim - I don't know if this helps, but NOAA has a TPW home page Blended TPW Products Overview with a wealth of information, links, raw data etc.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/bTPW/Overview.html

An older article of general interest: although USA-centric it is a brilliant introduction to precipitation mechanisms.  It may help NPPP - Neven's Posse in Pursuit of Precision.

Some Perspectives on Climate and Floods in the Southwestern U.S.
U.S. Geological Survey
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/changes/natural/floods/
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1144 on: December 02, 2016, 06:32:41 AM »
GFS is not looking much better seven days out for the Arctic.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1145 on: December 02, 2016, 06:54:04 AM »
GFS is not looking much better seven days out for the Arctic.

This comes accompanied with an above 1050 hPa high over Beaufort and Canada that will push more southernly winds thru Bering and from Laptev toward Greenland setting the older ice North of Greenland in motion toward the Atlantic. A dangerous push, will last for five days, we will see how persistent beyond that (below ACNFS drift forecast Dec 4 to 7)
« Last Edit: December 02, 2016, 07:08:08 AM by seaicesailor »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1146 on: December 02, 2016, 08:52:55 AM »
GFS is not looking much better seven days out for the Arctic.
This comes accompanied with an above 1050 hPa high over Beaufort and Canada that will push more southernly winds thru Bering and from Laptev toward Greenland setting the older ice North of Greenland in motion toward the Atlantic. A dangerous push, will last for five days, we will see how persistent beyond that (below ACNFS drift forecast Dec 4 to 7)
5 days = 30,000-50,000 KM2 of older ice out the door.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1147 on: December 02, 2016, 09:18:56 AM »
Browsing through maps tonight - the sheer amount of open water at this date north of 70 degrees on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is very, very disturbing.

Also disturbing - how slow the Hudson refreeze is moving.

Not sure of what to make of that yet.
This space for Rent.

meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1148 on: December 02, 2016, 12:24:13 PM »
Looking at GFS Forecast: new feauture that the ΔT scale has been upgraded up to + 30 C anomalies,
I have to say we' re not YET in runaway Arctic Warming- cause the Temperature at least is not just getting higher and higher- but it already shows wild swings of heat/ energy redistribution in the system.
Until the Arctic Ice is there, there' s no runaway situation. But after that, globally I would expect the same kind of warming with an average of about + 10 C in the whole global system.
Of course, this is not peer- reviewed- and I'm just an anaesthesiologist/ ICU doctor- still my experience with the understanding of dynamics of complex (living) systems and feedbacks- but it is certainly- and horryfyingly!- logical.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2016, 12:48:20 PM by meddoc »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1149 on: December 02, 2016, 02:24:28 PM »
A visual of what the Arctic Sea Ice looked like on December 1st each year since 2012 up to 2016