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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1800 on: January 07, 2017, 02:42:45 PM »
I don't even know why are we including the Sea of Okhotsk in the Arctic sea ice metrics any more. It bears no significance as either albedo support or birth place of multi year ice. No more significant anymore than lake ice. 
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1801 on: January 07, 2017, 02:56:28 PM »
considering the fact that 3 of the major possible short and mid-term contributor areas for sea-ice-extent growth  will see way above average temps during the current forecast period i'd not expect a significant increase in extent, at least nothing out of the ordinary that would be needed to make up for the current delay in re-freeze. i'm sorry to say that this includes the Sea of Okhotsk where so many put their last hope into.
There are almost two months of refreezing season to go...
In the coming week (animation from Jan 7 to Jan 13), the strong drift that HYCOM is predicting is more worrisome from my point of view. Fram export is happening as expected this winter, which is not good for the mass of MYI near the Pole and North Greenland. Sea ice drift that this time starts in Kara and Laptev seas, so we can expect continuous opening of the ice pack near their coasts and rapid refreezing. This new ice will be thin and will melt out very fast come some warmth and sun.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2017, 03:01:55 PM by seaicesailor »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1802 on: January 07, 2017, 03:25:37 PM »
absolutely true that there is way enough time to build ice which i'm sure will happen, still, every week that will pass without significant "recovery" meant as compared to other years freezing speed, will sooner or later not be possible to be compensated during the remaining time.

however,i agree, which is why i wrote "short & mid-term". what's beyond 10 days from now cannot be predicted with reason and hence would be like consulting the crystal ball :-)

nice weekend
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1803 on: January 07, 2017, 04:20:08 PM »
Apart from 2013, there has not been another beginning of year with such an absence of multi-year ice in all peripheral seas (except East Greenland sea), not even 2008.
Let us see how it plays out.
Unfortunately I cannot access the ice age model pages anymore. If anybody has such access, can do a more proper comparison including 2008.
In absence of it, the surviving vs new ice boundaries are very well distinguished in the HYCOM ACNFS simulations. This is Jan 4 2013 vs Jan 4 2017; which is which, I leave it to you, doesn't really matter much (ignoring the thicknesses, focusing on the extension of surviving ice vs new ice)
EDIT: However there are two important differences with 2013. First, in 2013 that big blob of MYI north of CAA slowly crept toward the Beaufort sea during winter and spring. This time the extension of MYI is much more tilted toward the Atlantic side. And the second difference is that the freezing season was more advanced in Chukchi and Bering seas in 2013. In 2017, it has just started.
Regardless, very interesting times again...
« Last Edit: January 07, 2017, 07:14:33 PM by seaicesailor »

CognitiveBias

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1804 on: January 07, 2017, 04:42:43 PM »
seaicesailor,

4th part of this paper has a nice animation of ice age from 1990.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaas-2016-arctic-report-card-visual-highlights

https://youtu.be/c6jX9URzZWg

The 2013 Beaufort MYI was not that much and seemed to more or less disintegrate in place.  With the Beaufort no longer able to spawn MYI, and the last hope MYI pressing thru the CAA, it feels like the transition is almost complete.  Its not even a black swan away at this point, just a strong melt season.





seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1805 on: January 07, 2017, 04:51:48 PM »
seaicesailor,

4th part of this paper has a nice animation of ice age from 1990.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaas-2016-arctic-report-card-visual-highlights

https://youtu.be/c6jX9URzZWg

The 2013 Beaufort MYI was not that much and seemed to more or less disintegrate in place.  With the Beaufort no longer able to spawn MYI, and the last hope MYI pressing thru the CAA, it feels like the transition is almost complete.  Its not even a black swan away at this point, just a strong melt season.
Oh wow had missed that updated video. Thanks.
Yes, I feel exactly the same. Now it is the Arctic dodging bullets as somebody put it before, will it this summer?
 

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1806 on: January 07, 2017, 06:18:08 PM »
-90k posted by NSIDC for the 6th. Again, wind driven waves moving warm water vs. thin ice.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1807 on: January 07, 2017, 08:55:47 PM »
The Beaufort gyre has changed from a nursery for multi-year ice to its killing ground. That video, and the narrative text is very clear & concise.

If we compare the beginning of 2017 to 2013 not only is the old ice thinner but so it the new first year ice. Moreover, the edge of the continental shelf where the warm water from the Fram strait flows into the Arctic ocean towards Siberia is clearly evident. That incoming warm water is killing ice from below as storms mix it upwards towards the surface.

The Atlantic water layer begins at about 300m (going down) in the Arctic but on the shelf slope warm Atlantic water is apparent at 100m according to the latest version of the Mercator Ocean model.

kiwichick16

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1808 on: January 07, 2017, 09:32:40 PM »
thanks for that  FOW......brilliantly clear map!!

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1809 on: January 07, 2017, 11:24:50 PM »

There are almost two months of refreezing season to go...
In the coming week (animation from Jan 7 to Jan 13), the strong drift that HYCOM is predicting is more worrisome from my point of view.

Yeah, I've been watching lows start lining up to roll up into the Barents so HYCOM's forecast is no surprise.  Figure the week to send about another 70,000KM2 of MYI off to its eventual doom. We may have seen as much as 10% or more of last year's surviving ice leave the basin already, and that's not factoring in how much has been consumed in the new melt zone north of Svalbard.

The lows will also constrain refreeze in the Kara and push (once again) the ice around FJL back towards the main pack.

Such great news all around... :o
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1810 on: January 08, 2017, 03:48:04 AM »
For some crazy reason, I thought it would be interesting to see how the thickness of the ice at the North Pole had changed over time for the last few months. Of course, I had to pick a point as close as possible to it without being on it to get a reading at all. I decided to start at Oct. 1st  and go thru today. I don't know how much of this is a result of movement of the ice. I personally believe most of this is from the weather. It's easy enough to see when the last big storm came through.

Iain

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1811 on: January 08, 2017, 05:46:38 AM »
PIOMAS figures for December have been published:

"December 2016 sea ice  volume was 11,200 km3 , nearly  1000 km3 below the previous record for December in 2012.   This record is in part the result of anomalously high temperatures throughout the Arctic for November and end of December"

"Average ice thickness in December  2016 over the PIOMAS  domain is the lowest on record "

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1812 on: January 08, 2017, 06:02:15 AM »
it shows that the 2013 & 2014 are truly outlier years and that the volume trend is following the previous exponential decay trend line.  In fact, if you removed those days the values clearly appear to be approaching dead-eye center (of that trendline) by April.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1813 on: January 08, 2017, 07:16:36 AM »
PIOMAS figures for December have been published:

"December 2016 sea ice  volume was 11,200 km3 , nearly  1000 km3 below the previous record for December in 2012.   This record is in part the result of anomalously high temperatures throughout the Arctic for November and end of December"

"Average ice thickness in December  2016 over the PIOMAS  domain is the lowest on record "
I think we on this forum collectively, are not surprised, not one bit.  Most of us were expecting it.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1814 on: January 08, 2017, 07:19:14 AM »
JAXA reported another nominal drop today. Wave activity is abating somewhat in the Barents, though not entirely yet.
The waves in Okhotsk have kept the sea ice there from solidifying.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1815 on: January 08, 2017, 07:21:07 AM »
JAXA reported another nominal drop today. Wave activity is abating somewhat.
The waves in Okhotsk have kept the sea ice there from solidifying.

If anything this is a good thing for expansion in Okhotsk, as the ice spreads away from the cold continents it comes into contact with water that has relatively little oceanic heat at depth compared to regions of a similar latitude elsewhere in the NHEM. Thus, the spreading of thin ice in this region enables more ice to form on the back-end off the super-cooled Eurasian high, which is why anomalies in Okhotsk are very positive this year vs. normal in terms of extent coverage.

Without Okhotsk and Baffin this year would be doing substantially worse compared to all others.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1816 on: January 08, 2017, 07:43:14 AM »
In fact, looking at HYCOM SSTs, one has to wonder how far extent will ultimately go in both NPAC and NATL?

In the NPAC anomalies are very deeply negative in Okhotsk thanks to the continued Eurasian high, and consequently we may see extent reach the Kuril Islands this year. The cascade effects would surely induce additional -anoms over the rest of the high-latitude NPAC in the vicinity and perhaps this marks the imminent end to the current episode of the big blob?




Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1817 on: January 08, 2017, 08:10:23 AM »
That is the surface. It might freeze, but it will not thicken much or last long, as just below the surface is sequestered heat. There is even warmer water deeper down, and this area is subject to waves that will bring it up and bring more in on the surface.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1818 on: January 08, 2017, 09:55:55 AM »
That is the surface. It might freeze, but it will not thicken much or last long, as just below the surface is sequestered heat. There is even warmer water deeper down, and this area is subject to waves that will bring it up and bring more in on the surface.

I have doubts about even much of that happening.  Sun's coming back fast.  Sunrise in Barrow (soon to be back to its original name, Utqiagvik) comes in two weeks.  Day length in the Okhotsk will be coming up on 10 hours, and weather generally will be warming.

Of course, if we get a lot of colder air breaking out across Siberia, that would do it, but that would mean more heat in the CAB, where we really don't care for it.
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1819 on: January 08, 2017, 12:03:51 PM »
SMOS over AMSR2 plus Hycom forward thickness could be a standard daily product to help us monitor Beaufort and Svalbard regions during the winter.

Right. Note AMSR2 is one day behind the current date (08 Jan 17), SMOS is two days behind, whereas Hycom goes six days ahead. However that doesn't create any problem as portions of the animation can be frozen on their last day as they run out of data.

Wtf are we supposed to be looking at here?

Upper left corner, Hycom envisioning continuing Fram export of thickest ice and immature ice forming (white) extending down to Svalbard even. Upper right, SMOS showing very extensive thin ice in Kara and Barents seas whose extent is consistent over the date range and unusually far north (almost 85)) for this late in winter, being more extreme than in recent years (shown in earlier post). Bottom, note extensive open water and middle-range sea ice concentration (whitish blue) to almost 83ºN with some wind-driven back and forth (watch island lees) but no trend in boundary.

Why not add the daily Piomas thickness map so it could be compared to Hycom thickness?

It appears that eight days into the month, the daily gridded thickness (ie map) for the previous month is not yet available, just the daily volume and daily anomaly. This is peculiar since the latter are integral summaries requiring prior computation of the former (which is complicated but just a small excel stack in the end).

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg98504.html#msg98504

Why do animations sometimes load and sometimes not?

Conditions and constraints seem to be a very complex function of layer number, frame size, total file size and possibly bit depth that is nowhere explained on the Simple Machines web site. One of the senior programmers there comes from a bulletin-board telnetting background and does not believe on- or off-site youTube, html5, csv spreadsheets, html tables, movies or animations beyond the 1989 standards belong on forums, just text with minimal markup. This creates various problems for us in terms of auto-updating and internet-wide information integration. However forum software is free, open-source, stable, and seemingly secure.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2017, 06:42:15 PM by A-Team »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1820 on: January 08, 2017, 02:04:01 PM »
JAXA reported another nominal drop today. Wave activity is abating somewhat.
The waves in Okhotsk have kept the sea ice there from solidifying.


If anything this is a good thing for expansion in Okhotsk, as the ice spreads away from the cold continents it comes into contact with water that has relatively little oceanic heat at depth compared to regions of a similar latitude elsewhere in the NHEM. Thus, the spreading of thin ice in this region enables more ice to form on the back-end off the super-cooled Eurasian high, which is why anomalies in Okhotsk are very positive this year vs. normal in terms of extent coverage.

Without Okhotsk and Baffin this year would be doing substantially worse compared to all others.


check those pics again when referring to okhotsk, this is happening in the very near future and then we shall be close to albedo resuming to play a role. there will be very little time for significant freeze and then it will be so thin that ice will get shattered with every pass of stormy and/or warmer fronts.

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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1821 on: January 08, 2017, 02:08:21 PM »
I by no means claim to be a weather expert. From what I have heard, it is the gradient between at least two systems that causes stormy weather. Correct me if I am wrong. What I do know is that it seems every time a chain of these lows go through the Arctic, at least one gets set up just right to cause a lot of wind and waves, and thus melt back the ice front and prevent a goodly portion more from thickening. Anyway, it is starting to look like a regular pattern.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1822 on: January 08, 2017, 08:51:34 PM »

Upper left corner, Hycom envisioning continuing Fram export of thickest ice and immature ice forming (white) extending down to Svalbard even. Upper right, SMOS showing very extensive thin ice in Kara and Barents seas whose extent is consistent over the date range and unusually far north (almost 85)) for this late in winter, being more extreme than in recent years (shown in earlier post). Bottom, note extensive open water and middle-range sea ice concentration (whitish blue) to almost 83ºN with some wind-driven back and forth (watch island lees) but no trend in boundary.

A-T you have (almost) outdone even yourself on this one, this is a fundamental graphic that needs to be shared!  Thank you!
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Tealight

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1823 on: January 09, 2017, 12:05:43 AM »
I have completly rewritten my DMI 80N Freezing Degree Days (FDD) calculation. I now use exact temperature data (ftp://ftp.dmi.dk/plus80N_temperatureindex/) instead of estimating it from the graph. This change also allowed me to add a graph spanning over the entire freezing season for 80N (September-June)

The graph is inspired by ktonine who posted graphs with thickness estimates before me. Let me know if you want some changes or improvements.

As usual the graph is updated daily on my website, because I can't post here everyday:
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/degree-days-freezing

Edit: The graph is better proportioned on my website.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2017, 12:39:04 AM by Tealight »

TenneyNaumer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1824 on: January 09, 2017, 12:11:45 AM »
Tigertown, if you want to see the storms entering the Arctic, they can be seen here:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1825 on: January 09, 2017, 12:26:48 AM »
Much appreciated.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1826 on: January 09, 2017, 09:14:35 AM »
Posted incorrectly elsewhere.

: oren  Today at 07:17:20 AM

    Tealight's updated FDD graph for DMI 80N:
    https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/degree-days-freezing
Grist for my mill.

Even if we follow the same trajectory as previous years with "Normal" 80N temperatures, the graph will only take us to about 1.6M of refreeze.  That presumes the intrusions of heat and moisture stop immediately.  I think this reinforces the conclusion I reached earlier; the damage has already been done.
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romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1827 on: January 09, 2017, 09:19:42 AM »
There was lot of wind on Kara Sea. Fresh Uni of Bremen map Sunday vs Friday. And Hycom model predicts strong ice drift continuing (away from coast) until at least Sat Jan 14. Ice must be really thin there.

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1828 on: January 09, 2017, 11:03:57 AM »
Posted incorrectly elsewhere.

: oren  Today at 07:17:20 AM

    Tealight's updated FDD graph for DMI 80N:
    https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/degree-days-freezing
Grist for my mill.

Even if we follow the same trajectory as previous years with "Normal" 80N temperatures, the graph will only take us to about 1.6M of refreeze.  That presumes the intrusions of heat and moisture stop immediately.  I think this reinforces the conclusion I reached earlier; the damage has already been done.
Actually I posted it on the ASIG thread on purpose, as I think it's a very important graph and wanted to include it in the ASIG update.
Chris Reynolds, in his "Slow Transition" analysis, assumed 4000 FDDs. Eyeballing the graph, we might hit 3200-3500 this year by the end of March, while all other recent years are clustered around 4000+.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1829 on: January 09, 2017, 02:14:55 PM »
There was lot of wind on Kara Sea. Fresh Uni of Bremen map Sunday vs Friday. And Hycom model predicts strong ice drift continuing (away from coast) until at least Sat Jan 14. Ice must be really thin there.
The kind of "ice" that must be there, it'd be nice to see some pics
The DMI MSLP image of today is very revealing of this train of storms coming from the Atlantic

romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1830 on: January 09, 2017, 03:09:11 PM »
The kind of "ice" that must be there, it'd be nice to see some pics
The DMI MSLP image of today is very revealing of this train of storms coming from the Atlantic

Latest picture (Sentinel) is not too promising. And it's about 850 km from northern point of Novaja Zemlja to southern point.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1831 on: January 09, 2017, 03:58:35 PM »
Several days of waves have left little more than debris.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1832 on: January 09, 2017, 05:18:35 PM »
Ok, so we have discussed what has been happening in the Kara, but there has been constant, though not huge wave action coming into the Chukchi. I believe this to be bringing in warm water, as you can see the damage it's causing the ice. Also, the winds and movement seem to be really stirring up heat from deep down all over. There are a couple of huge leads in the Laptev and ESS. Also, an area of lowered concentration is showing up in the Beaufort.

www.polarview.aq/sic/arctic/

www.polarview.aq/arctic

romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1833 on: January 09, 2017, 05:47:07 PM »
I agree. Regarding Chukchi latest from Uni of Bremen doesn't look good. Jan 8 vs Dec 27.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1834 on: January 09, 2017, 06:01:05 PM »

The graph is inspired by ktonine who posted graphs with thickness estimates before me. Let me know if you want some changes or improvements.


Nice work. Think I would prefer version with start as 1 Sept rather than starting on 1 Jan, and so maybe have the anomalies graph start at 1 Sept?

It might be a bad idea to clutter it up too much. Showing range from following what happened in previous years with lowest and highest FDD from last data to end of season might be an interesting extra. Perhaps if you are able to show numeric values for this (and for season to date and previous lowest on record for the date) rather than extra lines on chart which would/could clutter it up. (Or maybe if you cannot display data, and the graph is 274 days wide then maybe a line from the low range value on day 276 to the high range value on day 277 could indicate that range.

Hope you can follow what I am suggesting from that.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1835 on: January 09, 2017, 06:35:25 PM »
Posted incorrectly elsewhere.


Actually I posted it on the ASIG thread on purpose, as I think it's a very important graph and wanted to include it in the ASIG update.
Chris Reynolds, in his "Slow Transition" analysis, assumed 4000 FDDs. Eyeballing the graph, we might hit 3200-3500 this year by the end of March, while all other recent years are clustered around 4000+.
Sorry, oren - I was unclear.  ---> I <--- made a post elsewhere incorrectly, not you.
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1836 on: January 09, 2017, 09:34:35 PM »
Looking at "DMI Daily Arctic mean temperatures north of 80N" i wanted to note that for over a year now the lowest temp has been somewhere around 5 degrees above the long term -- and clearly, the average is much more than that.  The Ocean Climate does not seem to be retreating.

There is still about a month of real Winter to watch...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1837 on: January 10, 2017, 04:31:03 AM »
Obviously this is day 10 but not something you see often (if ever?)


Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1838 on: January 10, 2017, 04:41:55 AM »
Looks like a potential monster storm.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1839 on: January 10, 2017, 08:26:41 AM »
There was lot of wind on Kara Sea. Fresh Uni of Bremen map Sunday vs Friday. And Hycom model predicts strong ice drift continuing (away from coast) until at least Sat Jan 14. Ice must be really thin there.


This reminds me of what happened at the start of February 2012 and March 2011. I wrote about it on the ASIB at the time here and here.

Not looking good...
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1840 on: January 10, 2017, 08:43:55 AM »
945hpa in the winter! The pressure difference and the pressure gradient are quite large. This kind of strong stormy is quite usual last year in summer. I wonder that this will cause the same effect---mechanical breakup.
 
obviously, if it is real. moisture and heat will be drained and stirred up near the pole. It is likely the arctic sea ice ended up with no thickness increment even no area increment at the end of January.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1841 on: January 10, 2017, 11:25:34 AM »
945hpa in the winter! The pressure difference and the pressure gradient are quite large. This kind of strong stormy is quite usual last year in summer. I wonder that this will cause the same effect---mechanical breakup.
 
obviously, if it is real. moisture and heat will be drained and stirred up near the pole. It is likely the arctic sea ice ended up with no thickness increment even no area increment at the end of January.

We have a full moon tide to stress the ice ( 'Crackopalypse' event?) prior to its arrival so it's pretty poorly timed as the ice will not have had much time to reform before we get the storm forcings?
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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1842 on: January 10, 2017, 11:37:03 AM »
Posted incorrectly elsewhere.
Actually I posted it on the ASIG thread on purpose, as I think it's a very important graph and wanted to include it in the ASIG update.
Chris Reynolds, in his "Slow Transition" analysis, assumed 4000 FDDs. Eyeballing the graph, we might hit 3200-3500 this year by the end of March, while all other recent years are clustered around 4000+.
Sorry, oren - I was unclear.  ---> I <--- made a post elsewhere incorrectly, not you.
Lol, thanks for clarifying...

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1843 on: January 10, 2017, 02:49:43 PM »
Well as far as solar is concerned we've come full circle with 2007

Flux



sunspots



It's going to be an interesting watch.  I noticed Chartic dropped yesterday with the push of the ice offshore into the pack.

I'm also interested at the almost total lack of sea ice in the Baltic in the arctic circle.  At least they won't have to worry about the road making machines breaking through and sinking, there's no ice to make a road and unlikely to be any roadworthy ice this year for them to attempt to work on.

Meanwhile Mona Loa ends the year 3.3ppm CO2 up on 2015.

This is an interesting track to go down.

If we assume global == ML (it was higher in 2015), then we can calculate the average CO2ppm growth for the first 7 years of the 2010's

At 2.46ppm

then the first seven years for the

2000's 1.92
1990's 1.22
1980's 1.37
1970's 1.10
1960's 0.76

I guess we should not be quite so surprised at what we see.

What is interesting and I have never looked for it before, is that we can see the MT Pinatubo eruption in the CO2 results which shrank the 1990's growth down to 1960's levels for two years.  Also 2016, in it's own right, increased CO2 values more than the entirety of the first half decade of the 1960's combined.

To me this makes what we are seeing more understandable and less surprising.
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1844 on: January 10, 2017, 02:55:20 PM »
945hpa in the winter! The pressure difference and the pressure gradient are quite large. This kind of strong stormy is quite usual last year in summer. I wonder that this will cause the same effect---mechanical breakup.
 
obviously, if it is real. moisture and heat will be drained and stirred up near the pole. It is likely the arctic sea ice ended up with no thickness increment even no area increment at the end of January.


We have a full moon tide to stress the ice ( 'Crackopalypse' event?) prior to its arrival so it's pretty poorly timed as the ice will not have had much time to reform before we get the storm forcings?
Although there is still one week ahead, the ice retreat of pacific side will halt in a few days, the Atlantic side is still not calm anyway.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1845 on: January 10, 2017, 04:26:14 PM »
Looks like a steady stream of lows moving up from the Atlantic to the Arctic between now and the 18th, when the forecast-ed monster storm becomes dominant. It may be difficult to see any growth in extent for now. This may have to play out just to calm things down for a while in the Arctic, although at what cost?

NSIDC numbers for last several days.


2016,    12,  30,     12.669,     
2016,    12,  31,     12.608,     
2017,    01,  01,     12.608,     
2017,    01,  02,     12.614,     
2017,    01,  03,     12.705,     
2017,    01,  04,     12.956,     
2017,    01,  05,     12.932,     
2017,    01,  06,     12.843,     
2017,    01,  07,     12.852,     
2017,    01,  08,     12.879,     
2017,    01,  09,     12.847,





A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1846 on: January 10, 2017, 04:47:05 PM »
lot of wind on Kara Sea, model predicts strong ice drift away from coast) until Sat Jan 14. Ice must be really thin.
This reminds me of what happened at the start of February 2012 and March 2011. I wrote about it on the ASIB at the time here and here.
Reminds me of the desirability of tracking this year in parallel to this paper ... just need to update their figures with on-the-fly reanalysis of 2016-17.

Analysis of the warmest Arctic winter, 2015–2016
RI Cullather et al 27 Oct 2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071228 first page and figures free

December through February 2015–2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2 m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska.  A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean.

The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

There has been considerable attention on changing conditions in the summertime Arctic, where September sea ice extent has declined by 13.4% per decade over the satellite era [Serreze et al., 2016], and widespread, persistent surface melt has been observed on polar ice sheets [Nghiem 2012; Cullather  2016].

An important concept in the discussion of recent climate is the notion of polar amplification, in which surface air temperatures in high latitudes respond more strongly to anthropogenic forcing than the Earth as a whole. Polar amplification exhibits a characteristic seasonal cycle that is a maximum in winter.

While surface heating in summer serves to melt ice or is absorbed into the ocean, increasing temperatures in the Arctic winter season may influence atmospheric circulation or precondition the surface ice cover for earlier and enhanced melting during the ensuing summer.

A warmer atmosphere also weakens the temperature gradient with the underlying ocean and thereby reduces sea ice growth. This alteration in the seasonal growth cycle may affect the ice cover over the ensuing weeks to months.

A thinning or loss of late summer sea ice cover reduces the insulation of the lower atmosphere from oceanic surface heat fluxes in subsequent winter months. This also allows for the addition of water vapor into the lower troposphere, which may in turn affect surface radiative fluxes. Previous studies have also examined the relation between the Arctic winter climate and atmospheric teleconnections as a means of initiating anomalously warm conditions.

The observational record allows for exploring the relative roles of these processes during extreme events. Long-term temperature reconstructions indicate that for the region of the north polar cap, the 2015–2016 Arctic winter temperature anomalies (December-January-February) exceeded the previous warmest Arctic winter of 2011–2012 by more than 0.7°C and exceeded the warmest Arctic winter of the mid-twentieth century by more than 1.3°C....

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1847 on: January 10, 2017, 06:45:06 PM »
as expected and mentioned earlier okhotsk is not able to keep a solid ice cover and hence i doubt it will serve as a compensation area for the even worse regions of the arctic.

last but not least we did not yet reach peak temps in the okhotsk, with a bit of bad luck and depending on the wind direction (offshore winds could do that) we could eventually see a significant drop in that area while my level of education does not allow to make a proper judgement, just a gut feeling from the information that is available to everyone.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2017, 09:11:32 PM by magnamentis »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1848 on: January 10, 2017, 07:37:24 PM »
Similar bad news ... The coming storms are prompting HYCOM to predict a significant surge of ice export out of the Fram.  We may see over 100,000 KM2 of MYI exit in the next week.  That doesn't include ice chewn up when it gets pushed into the hot zone just north of Svalbard.
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sesyf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1849 on: January 10, 2017, 09:15:53 PM »
NeilT mentioned Baltic Sea in his post above. I do not have now any exact info about ice hereabouts, but as a boat owner I have sort of keen interest on when ice comes and goes... generally the ice has been coming later, melting earlier and having less are in last 10 years or so. Last time that the Gulf of Finland had full ice coverage was sometime in the start of 2000's - and that only to Hanko level...

I'm trying to find some data from Finnish Meteorological Institute about ice cover, etc - at least the data is not easily found on their site...