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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2500 on: July 03, 2017, 12:58:27 AM »
good job, much appreciated, thanks :-) :good; magnificent, just sayin, LOL ad nauseam ..........................

:good: or to avoid further "misunderstanding" "good between colons" is a smily that should produce a "thumbs up graphic smily" for those who know that, some forums would just not show it as that, i did not hit the back button to control the smily.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2017, 01:22:13 AM by magnamentis »
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DavidR

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2501 on: July 03, 2017, 04:46:34 AM »
July 1st typically sees the largest extent drop of the year within the NSIDC extent series.
The average extent drop from 1979 to 2016 is 203k, with the last 10 years averaging a 261k drop and 2013 achieving the largest drop, at 349k.

This year saw a slightly below average drop, just 177k, making it the 15th smallest from 39 years.
One has to wonder if the algorithms used to calculate the end of month changes were improved in 2014 leading to the  much  lower changes since then.

Has anyone checked this and if so how does it affect the June and July daily melt  data?

Reallybigbunny

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2502 on: July 03, 2017, 06:13:02 AM »
Am I wrong in assuming that the demise of the asi is  most greatly influenced by the broken jet stream? Depending if the Arctic has less sea ice or no sea ice the sea water is much warmer than the land surfaces in September, creating rising air over the ocean, thus a low pressure area over the water and high pressure area over the surrounding land masses. The air circulation pattern over the Arctic Ocean is more counterclockwise drawing warm surface waters into the Arctic from the open seas north of Svalbaard eventually bringing more  heat with rain less snow.
Large amounts of warm air will NOT STOP pouring into the arctic from  the equator. The jet stream is broken, there is NO barrier for cold air to stay in the Arctic. As complicated as the Arctic environment is the one thing that seems to dominate is the cascading feedbacks of a nonexistent jet stream.

I know this is a simplified explanation but it seems that the jet stream was the thread that held it all together and it's all but non-existent. Can someone elucidate?


I thought the demise of the asi caused the breakdown of the jet stream :good: Lets see what others have to say...

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2503 on: July 03, 2017, 06:47:57 AM »
Two century breaks in two days on JAXA for SIE, also. Their imaging is showing even wider melt ponding over the last few days now. Wipneus' volume chart based on JAXA thickness data has made adjustments to correct for the pseudo-thick areas previously showing on their chart.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2504 on: July 03, 2017, 06:54:12 AM »
Am I wrong in assuming that the demise of the asi is  most greatly influenced by the broken jet stream? Depending if the Arctic has less sea ice or no sea ice the sea water is much warmer than the land surfaces in September, creating rising air over the ocean, thus a low pressure area over the water and high pressure area over the surrounding land masses. The air circulation pattern over the Arctic Ocean is more counterclockwise drawing warm surface waters into the Arctic from the open seas north of Svalbaard eventually bringing more  heat with rain less snow.
Large amounts of warm air will NOT STOP pouring into the arctic from  the equator. The jet stream is broken, there is NO barrier for cold air to stay in the Arctic. As complicated as the Arctic environment is the one thing that seems to dominate is the cascading feedbacks of a nonexistent jet stream.

I know this is a simplified explanation but it seems that the jet stream was the thread that held it all together and it's all but non-existent. Can someone elucidate?


I thought the demise of the asi caused the breakdown of the jet stream :good: Lets see what others have to say...
It's generally accepted as a feedback loop. The lack of sea ice makes the jet stream weak, which further hurts the ice. That makes the jet weaker, which is even more to the detriment of the ice. It goes on so.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2505 on: July 03, 2017, 08:45:02 AM »
Just a subjective observation (At this moment I don't have the possibility to research and illustrate): I've been almost two days offline and been watching the state of the ice right now: The change of the shape in the last 48 hours is quite obvious. The contour of the inner arctic ice is very developed for only being at the begin of July, I think I can remember August ice contours that didn't look worse. With the Laptev bite in full swing, there's already that slightly asymetric butterlfy-shape that we've seen so many times and the northern passage is virtually open for a small boat any day now. The edges of the ice look fluffy, indicating a lot of persistant melt. If this goes on, August will have the chance for a kill shot. But that's all very subjective, I admit.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2506 on: July 03, 2017, 02:00:08 PM »
... And yes, it was straining things somewhat but I was looking at EOSDIS NASA and from that pic it seems that the Northern Route is not far away from breaking up. Right now, it could be possible to get through if you have a good and strong boat, not necessarily an ice breaker though.
Correct. In fact, "good and strong boats" these days include ships like Timofey Guzhenko ice-breaking oil tanker (and her sister ships), and we'll see many more of the kind breaking through ~1 meter-thick ice fields in observable future. Even now, i bet few of those add insult to the injury, fracturing already most fractured ASI even a bit more; i really see no reason why would they stop their operations now.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2507 on: July 03, 2017, 02:48:25 PM »
Correct. In fact, "good and strong boats" these days include ships like Timofey Guzhenko ice-breaking oil tanker (and her sister ships)


There has been discussion about "ice-breaking oil tankers" on the Northern Sea Route thread. See e.g.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg101582.html#msg101582

My scepticism about LMV's "NSR Open" suggestion is based on the Canadian Ice Service's definition for the Northwest Passage, which appears to be "<= 3/10 concentration along the whole route":

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/is-the-northwest-passage-open-yet/
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2508 on: July 03, 2017, 03:19:00 PM »
Understood. I'd say, Canadian Ice Service's definition needs reevaluation, though, especially in light of events like this one. Note the date of the picture there: March 30 2017. And the ship is a _cargo_ vessel (not a dedicated ice-breaker). If it can go good part of the NSR in _March_ these days, how exactly should we consider the NSR "closed" right now only because some canadians decided that's how it should be? I say, we should not.

Furthermore, the beginning of actual commercial truly international unassisted cargo traffic through the NSR happened some 7 years ago already, as explained here. Vast majority of vessels going through the NSR are, obviously, diesel-electric, and that means extra bit of pollution (CO2, soot, unavoidable oil products leaks, etc) going directly into near-surface Arctic environment.

In fact, hundreds thousands tons of oil are entering Arctic waters every year, already. Unavoidably, this alters ice melting conditions within noticeable part of the Arctic, as oil spreads out. This very melting season is certainly affected by this, too. However, i am not jumping at any conclusion about _how_ it is affected. I deem it quite possible negative feedbacks from near-surface low-concentration oil products may be more powerful than positive feedbacks, in terms of melt. It'd take serious research to even attempt any conclusion here. Sadly, i never happened to find any research of the kind. I guess those are rare or non-existent. Please let me know if you happened to read any research of the kind, and where/how to get familiar with such; thanks!

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2509 on: July 03, 2017, 03:48:04 PM »
If it can go good part of the NSR in _March_ these days, how exactly should we consider the NSR "closed" right now only because some canadians decided that's how it should be? I say, we should not.


How should we define it then? The NSRA web site seems to be working intermittently if at all at the moment:

http://nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/

However it seems that the 34,146 tonne Pugnax is currently en route from Sabetta to China. Does that mean the Northern Sea Route is "Open"?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2510 on: July 03, 2017, 04:14:13 PM »
If it can go good part of the NSR in _March_ these days, how exactly should we consider the NSR "closed" right now only because some canadians decided that's how it should be? I say, we should not.


How should we define it then? The NSRA web site seems to be working intermittently if at all at the moment:

http://nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/

However it seems that the 34,146 tonne Pugnax is currently en route from Sabetta to China. Does that mean the Northern Sea Route is "Open"?


fully agree, like a road is not "drivable" just because a bulldozer made it from a to b LOL

the definition IMO has not just do do with navigability but a lot with money and insurance, not open means you can be held responsible for rescue costs etc. and open means you can ship through in good face and those who declared a route open at least share some big part of the responsibility/liability = costs for rescue and damages.
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Sourabh

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2511 on: July 03, 2017, 04:24:57 PM »
Kindly delete if this has already been posted and I failed to notice this.

This forum, Neven's blog, and this melting season got some coverage.

https://www.newsdeeply.com/arctic/articles/2017/07/03/from-cryosphere-to-blogosphere-sea-ice-enthusiasts-track-arctic-melt

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2512 on: July 03, 2017, 04:38:00 PM »
Why, to me, the definition for "open Northern Sea Route" is extremely very simple: it is open if and when there is significant cargo traffic which is not assisted by dedicated ice-breaker(s) which is going through the NSR and it is known they are about to go all the way through the NSR in their current voyage (not just a part of it). I talk big ships, obviously, - yachts and such do not count.

For all practical intents and purposes, including, in particular, how said traffic would influence ongoing melt season, following freeze season, and long-term ice health, - it only matters whether there are actual cargo ships going through the NSR, or not.

P.S. As for "bulldozers", - those are nuclear-powered ice-breakers like this one, able to sail through up to 5 meters-thick ice "on paper", and even thicker in practice (although slower). And like bulldozers proper which can go pretty much anywhere anytime on soil, those can really go anywhere anytime in Arctic (and have similarly relatively high operation costs, naturally). Pretty "ice class" oil tankers which can break through up to 2.1 meter thick level ice? Those are merely "SUVs", at best. So yep, the route is open now.


Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2513 on: July 03, 2017, 05:06:23 PM »
I believe there is a NSR thread somewhere?
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2514 on: July 03, 2017, 05:06:51 PM »
I'm thinking this is going to overtake (or is it 'undercut') 2016 in the the next day or so.
Only 2012 left after that, and real close.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
« Last Edit: July 03, 2017, 06:19:38 PM by Thomas Barlow »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2515 on: July 03, 2017, 05:09:36 PM »
The Russian Federation has an over-riding military, industrial and economic imperative -to make as much of the Arctic Ocean and its resources its own as possible. So they have their own rules as to when the NSR is open. If a few ships get a few dents and scratches on the way - so what. Russians go in where angels fear to tread. Can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, ships, people.
Sorry, Neven - couldn't resist.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2516 on: July 03, 2017, 05:15:55 PM »
The Russian Federation has an over-riding military, industrial and economic imperative -to make as much of the Arctic Ocean and its resources its own as possible. So they have their own rules as to when the NSR is open. If a few ships get a few dents and scratches on the way - so what. Russians go in where angels fear to tread. Can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, ships, people.
Sorry, Neven - couldn't resist.

Actually, it was Nobel Peace Prize Winner Barack Hussein who fast- tracked Arctic Drilling (& of course fracking, off- shore drilling, etc).

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2517 on: July 03, 2017, 05:24:31 PM »
The weather did a number on the pack didn't it?
One or two days more of warmth in the Pacific side, then not clear how it goes, if anybody cares to comment...
For sure winds will be blowing from the Pacific over the Bering almost 24/7
Edit, this is how windy.com depicts the current conditions, furnace-ous
https://on.windy.com/8t02
Edit2, save some steam these days to enter the Arctic across the Bering strait
« Last Edit: July 03, 2017, 06:23:10 PM by seaicesailor »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2518 on: July 03, 2017, 06:44:38 PM »
At the same time, seems pretty sunny today from Beaufort sea to ESS
SST anomalies in these regions kinda going thru the roof
« Last Edit: July 03, 2017, 07:15:45 PM by seaicesailor »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2519 on: July 03, 2017, 07:51:54 PM »
Today, the jet stream is actually a bit stronger than normal for July third. Heat is building up in the tropical and subtropical NH oceans to what may be record levels. The Arctic oscillation is positive and it's cooler than normal from 80ºN to the pole. The relatively cool weather in the central Arctic is giving us hope that we might not see a record minimum extent despite the record low NH sea ice thickness at winter's end.

Some of the discussion above does not apply to the 2017 melting season. I won't post heat content maps of the tropics and subtropics because they are a bit off topic but you can see from the 500 mb hemispheric map for the NH that the heights of the 500mb surface in the subtropics is higher than normal while heights are lower than normal around the pole. The stronger than normal height gradient implies that jet stream winds are stronger than normal.

Paladiea

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2520 on: July 03, 2017, 08:07:01 PM »
Am I wrong in assuming that the demise of the asi is  most greatly influenced by the broken jet stream?

Quickly going over this, the gradient in temperature between the pole and the mid latitudes is what fuels the jet stream. As the gradient lessens, the jet stream gets slower, letting cold air out of the arctic, further decreasing the gradient, and so on and so forth.

As for the relative coolness of the Arctic, I stress the relativity of it. Remember that Earth cannot lose heat EXCEPT through radiation, so that heat unless lost as longwave radiation is somewhere.

My take on this season is that it's been fairly consistent in meeting expectations. As I said earlier, don't be fooled by relative cold spots.
The most enjoyable way to think about heat transfer through radiation is to picture a Star Wars laser battle, where every atom and molecule is constantly firing at every other atom and molecule.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2521 on: July 03, 2017, 08:33:05 PM »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2522 on: July 03, 2017, 08:57:02 PM »
Temp map above:

Jeezus. . .

Satellite view from Beaufort/Chukchi and into the CAB regions shows the highest amount of melt ponding that I have ever seen, ever.  I mean, look how dark blue the ice is now!

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-07-03&z=3&v=-2080593.446460003,-278032.1484467292,-442193.44646000303,531951.8515532708

Boys (and girls)  I think we just hit the cliff. . .
"Relatively cool" in Central Arctic = still just around freezing at the coldest, with intervals of warmth persisting... and the latest satellite imagery as noted above portends a continuing and worsening nosedive in extent/area #s. Combined with the imminent melt-out of the Atlantic positive anomalies on PIOMAS, I would imagine that 2017 begins putting sizable distance between itself and 2012 in terms of volume, area, and extent numbers, especially as we pass 7/15. I expect the gap will begin yawning as much as it was earlier this year by the end of August, but who knows.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2523 on: July 03, 2017, 08:58:30 PM »
Jai, the ice needs to melt until we are going to hit a cliff... And the weather pattern looks ice friendly later this week and early next week.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2524 on: July 03, 2017, 09:03:43 PM »
SST anomaly on July 1st, 2012 vs 2017:
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2525 on: July 03, 2017, 09:28:38 PM »
Some kinda of a difference Neven!

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2526 on: July 03, 2017, 09:37:52 PM »
Here's a comparison of the last 4 12z ECMWF runs.  Just to see where the forecast is heading.  Valid for 12z on July 8.  So 5 days from now, so this will still change.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017070312&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=269
« Last Edit: July 03, 2017, 09:52:38 PM by JayW »
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2527 on: July 03, 2017, 11:39:55 PM »
SST anomaly on July 1st, 2012 vs 2017:
Than you Neven, by any chance do you keep  2007 charts?

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2528 on: July 03, 2017, 11:45:33 PM »
Than you Neven, by any chance do you keep  2007 charts?

Unfortunately not, as I wasn't watching the ice yet back then. And I'm not sure if the DMI already had those maps back then. Either way, they don't have a (public archive), so no luck there.

I do have maps for July 7th from last year and 2015, and July 8th 2013 (on July 15th I can do side-by-side comparison between 2012, 2016 and 2017 again):
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2529 on: July 04, 2017, 12:41:12 AM »
Fracturing sea ice as seen from Yakutia to Alaska. Note the penetration of fractures deep into CAB - it is here where the next calving may occur - especially if winds arise to pull ice further apart. (Click to enlarge to see leads in sea ice more clearly.)
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 01:33:35 PM by VeliAlbertKallio »

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2530 on: July 04, 2017, 12:47:41 AM »
Heavily pulverized sea ice around Svalbard / Franz Joseph Land heading to the Atlantic 3.7.2017.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2531 on: July 04, 2017, 01:10:20 AM »
Jai, I was very aware when I posted that comment that it is steaming hot in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas and the CAA. The thin ice in the Beaufort is melting away like a frozen Margarita in Texas in July. That said the DMI 80ºN to the pole graph has been on the cool side.

The weather/climate models don't have any way to deal with the problems of thin ice so I have little confidence in the CFSv2 forecasts I have been reviewing. It's going to be very interesting to see how the weather responds to the early melt out in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

The main channel of the CAA is also showing signs of early break up. There's a lot going on and I wouldn't be surprised to see the melt out go very quickly on the Alaskan side of the Arctic ocean.

scottie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2532 on: July 04, 2017, 01:46:22 AM »
Hi all, long, long time lurker on the forum. breaking silence when I saw this - large area (10,000+ km2) of sea ice at the western end of the McClure Strait has detached and moved in the general direction of the Beaufort

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2533 on: July 04, 2017, 02:00:57 AM »
Hi all, long, long time lurker on the forum. breaking silence when I saw this - large area (10,000+ km2) of sea ice at the western end of the McClure Strait has detached and moved in the general direction of the Beaufort
Welcome scottie. A very interesting first post I must say, nice spotting.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2534 on: July 04, 2017, 03:07:03 AM »
Hi all, long, long time lurker on the forum. breaking silence when I saw this - large area (10,000+ km2) of sea ice at the western end of the McClure Strait has detached and moved in the general direction of the Beaufort
The candle is burning at both ends now. It will open up soon enough.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2535 on: July 04, 2017, 05:49:44 AM »
OT sorry (antarctic), but just want to make sure everyone has seen this:
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/

binntho

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2536 on: July 04, 2017, 07:42:52 AM »
Hi all, long, long time lurker on the forum. breaking silence when I saw this - large area (10,000+ km2) of sea ice at the western end of the McClure Strait has detached and moved in the general direction of the Beaufort
Next door, the Prince of Wales strait has been flushing rapidly this last week.

Hefaistos

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2537 on: July 04, 2017, 07:43:24 AM »
OT sorry (antarctic), but just want to make sure everyone has seen this:
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/


Nice ending quote from that great article: "The fuse is lit,” says Blankenship. “We’re just running around mapping where all the bombs are."

vigilius

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2538 on: July 04, 2017, 10:56:57 AM »
Okay, here's a gif of the Beaufort, June 27 through July 3. Banks Island on lower left, Prince Patrick Island on lower right, the mighty Gyre crunches and munches. Images from Worldview. Click to animate. Hurts to watch- so why do I keep watching it over and over?

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2539 on: July 04, 2017, 11:07:01 AM »
Next door, the Prince of Wales strait has been flushing rapidly this last week.

of special interest is the big junk of ice disconnecting, visible in the last image, if curents and winds are favourable this will take a huge junk out of that part of the passage within a few days only, no in situ melt necessary once it's flushed out to beaufort side
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 05:04:38 PM by magnamentis »
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Jontenoy

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2540 on: July 04, 2017, 01:01:42 PM »
Any reason the chunks of ice are so thick.... 6 + metres. It seems that a lot of MYI is being
exported.  Is this normal in July ? I would have thought only thin ice would be exiting at this time. Could it be a bad sign ?   See ......  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2017/jul/04/extreme-ice-on-canada-east-coast-in-pictures

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2541 on: July 04, 2017, 01:13:14 PM »
It is "new normal" i recon. Highly unusual for like 10+ years ago, but increasing MYI export was a big story for more than one of recent melt seasons, and now it happens again. And yes, it is bad for ASI overall (obviously).

RikW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2542 on: July 04, 2017, 02:14:54 PM »
Those pictures give me a bad feeling for the rest of the melt season. It appears too much of the thick ice is too far south, were it will melt out. Same with PIOMAS numbers. The only place where there appears to be more ice then the last 10 years are on the edges, which I guess is because of high export. And exported ice is doomed.

I'm afraid extraordinary melt conditions aren't required anymore for new records that pulverize earlier record :(

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2543 on: July 04, 2017, 02:31:29 PM »
A big burly fellow just got here. He parked his big ol' ugly truck on your lawn. When he comes in the door, don't stare him in the eyes, and please don't try to shake hands with him. Address him as sir; Mr. Momentum by name.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2544 on: July 04, 2017, 03:00:36 PM »
I have posted this before on another thread and do not want to derail this one but these pictures of very unusual pack ice are simply dramatic examples of a decades long trend in the Arctic caused by the fracturing and increased mobility of the Arctic Sea ice. This is captured in a graph that tracks the increased dispersion at minimum. This new fractured, increasingly mobile state is irreversible IMHO resulting in this pack ice but other phenomena like the "Garlic Press" in the CAA last melt season.

It makes sense that this increased dispersion will include some of the thickest MYI.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2545 on: July 04, 2017, 03:02:30 PM »
The amount of 'old ice' that has passed through Fram since October we are going to be in a place where any ice surviving this year ( to become 3yr ice) will not have witnessed a proper Arctic winter conditioning and so must behave differently in its melt to what 3yr in the 80's did?

And what of this years FYI ? isn't it also thinner and less 'cold tempered' than we are used to?

If an average year used to be able to remove swathes of 2m FYI then what of an 'average year and 1.5m ice?

There does not seem to be many 'big block' type floes around the basin this year but an increase in what appears to be 'ground up' ice?

By the end of this month we will have a much better 'feel' for where the season is heading but I'm expecting another 'cliff' as the 1.5m ice gives up the ghost?
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2546 on: July 04, 2017, 03:28:36 PM »
SST anomaly on July 1st, 2012 vs 2017:

The Pacific side is worse this year which is maybe more important than the the big lead in anomalies in Kara sea in 2012.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2547 on: July 04, 2017, 03:32:31 PM »

If an average year used to be able to remove swathes of 2m FYI then what of an 'average year and 1.5m ice?



One scary graph has been also updated (average sea ice thickness). Image:  http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2548 on: July 04, 2017, 03:43:22 PM »
...
If an average year used to be able to remove swathes of 2m FYI then what of an 'average year and 1.5m ice?
...
I understand this one was meant mostly as rhetorical question.

However, it is not.

"Average" year nowadays is quite very different from an "average" year mere 2 decades ago. And my point here is, some changes are not for the worse - but for the better. In terms of melting potential. In other words, not all feedbacks are positive; some are negative, and may prevail.

In particular, - more clouds. We are seeing it this melting season quite very well: cyclon in this June was almost strongest-ever for the month of June, and if models have any sense in them (i think, they do, a little at least), - it could yet be much stronger, beating the record for lowest June Arctic air pressure by a ton. Didn't happen, but "was close", yes?

Earlier in late May / June we had that "could be persistent" pattern with 5 lows around 1 high in the middle of the Arctic, - and that's 5:1 in favor of low pressure regions, i.e. roughly 5:1 ratio for places with "lots of clouds" against places with "clear sky", yes?

Furthermore, we now see in forecasts - as recently mentioned, - more cyclonic weather coming in Arctic's way. Overall, those recent examples, as well as similar occurencies in recent melt seasons, - starting with the famous GAC of 2012 and through windy and cloudy Arctic times (lots of times) of 2013 and 2014 in particular, - all those are clear indication that in general, Arctic is becoming much, much more cloudy place.

I lived near the polar circle for the total of 11 years of my life back in 1980s and 1990s. And so, i know "classic" northern weather in general quite very well. One definite feature of it is relatively short but intense "wet" periods between much longer, stable, lasting "dry" periods, - both winter-times and summer-times. This old-standard Arctic feature is easily explained by three simple facts:

- relatively low amount of moisture in the athmosphere in general, because evaporation from permafrosts and not-much-melt-ponded ice fields (especially with snow cover) is very low;

- real big temperature gradients between masses of much warmed up relatively dry air (dry air is getting warmer faster than high-humidity air), and whatever high-humidity "imported" air masses happening to enter the Arctic. Those big gradients, in the past, were one big factor which intensified "wet" processes in Arctic athmosphere, leading to faster movement, compactness and intensity of thunderstorms and such;

- the Jetstream was much more effective in separating Arctic part of Earth's athmopshere from temperate regions, much limiting "import of moisture" into the Arctic.

But now all that have changed quite very much. And so, we get the big-time increase in cloudyness in Arctic. Summer-time, cloud cover prevents lots of direct insolation happening near-surface, potentially allowing 1.5 meter FYI to _survive_ an "average" year where previously, 2.0 meter FYI would just melt away under the Sun.

However, clouds are not only about that negative feedback of "cutting direct insolation off". They also do positive feedbacks, too. Especially autumn and winter-times, that is.

If to continue the example i made just above, - as much as they prevent sunlight from reaching the surface, they also prevent much of IR from escaping the surface, too: where lots of IR would travel directly into near-Earth space through the clear skies, most of it ends up being sent "back to the surface" if there is significant cloud cover over the area. That's one of primary reasons last winter was so little freezing for the Arctic, in particular, - which have led to this "1.5 meter thick instead of 2.0 meter thick" situation in the 1st place!

Furthermore, it's far from being only radiation-related feebacks (both positive and negative). Clouds also produce extra precipitation, and that's whole another story (even bigger one).

They clouds also tend to transport various kinds of pollution quite much better than dry air would, which is increasingly relevant with things like intensifying (lately) forest fires in high latitudes (Siberia, Canada), recently mentioned oil leakages (hundreds thousands tons into Arctic waters directly i mentioned before, - is but a joke in compare to many million tons of oil leaked, and sometimes burned, across Siberia and from Canadian "tar sands" and alike operations). There are real great papers and whole teams working on speicifics of cloud droplets and snowflakes forming around soot particles, for example. Etc.

Another possibly game-changing thing is that nowadays we have increasingly intensive air traffic over the Arctic. Both civilian jet liners and military craft fly all sorts of directions over the Arctic, leaving contrails behind. When US grounded their civil jet liners after 9/11 for just 3 days, daily temperature gradient over most of US soil increased by ~1°C (which is huge value, as usually that metric is very stable). Plus, we don't exactly know what kinds of "additives" and "components" modern jet fuels are having in them, exactly; one i've read about mentioned having alluminium-based compound in it, as "anti-corrosive" component for jet engines to enjoy, - but the thing burns into simple Al2O3 inside the engine and then gets ejected into Arctic lower stratosphere, and that's potentially Welsbach seeding with its known effects (depends on specifics of the compound, engine exhaust and more - may or may not be effective the way Hughes corporation patented it). How much that affects an "average, today" year? Your guess is as good as mine - i don't think there is any published dedicated research on this specific subject (might be wrong). If significant, that's another negative feedback, to further reinforce the general point of this post. Which is, to remind:

nowadays, despite most trends, "average year's" melt season might be melting _less_ ice thickness than "average year 20+ years ago" was able to.

Whether it is in fact so, and how much is the difference, - probably noone can say for sure, but as i tried to argument above, there are reasons to consider it true.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 03:52:33 PM by F.Tnioli »

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2549 on: July 04, 2017, 04:07:13 PM »
A big burly fellow just got here. He parked his big ol' ugly truck on your lawn. When he comes in the door, don't stare him in the eyes, and please don't try to shake hands with him. Address him as sir; Mr. Momentum by name.

Could be kind of a song  ;D

A big burly fellow just arrived at dawn
He parked his big ol'ugly truck on your lawn
When he comes in the door,
don't stare in his eyes,
and don't try anymore
to shake hands - otherwise ...
Adress him as sir; Mr. Momentum by name
understand he's the one who rules the game
he's making ice cry
lets the ocean shine blue
sending temperatures high
but his smile it's not true
Adress him as sir; Mr. Momentum by name
understand he's the one who rules the game
...