Hurricane season 2017

[Sigmetnow]

Mandatory evacuation in South Carolina from the Florida border to and including the city of Savannah.
Interstate-16 out of Savannah has been changed to contraflow:  all lanes are westbound.

Mandatory evacs in GA east of I-95 don't start until Saturday. You have time. Don't rush or panic, take your pets.
https://twitter.com/WeatherKait/status/905845536267395073

https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2017-09-07/deal-expands-state-emergency-24-additional-counties
Map and details at this link.

[Sigmetnow]

2 pm advisory is out: Key West warned to be ready for up to 8 feet of storm damage and impassable roads and bridges.
https://twitter.com/jenstaletovich/status/905852453970735104

South Florida is under a hurricane watch, and a weekend strike is possible
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171728402.html

[Sigmetnow]

NHC 2pm Public Advisory

"STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/071743.shtml?

[AbruptSLR]

As the linked article indicates that the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting) model is likely better than the GFS model (w.r.t. Irma), I provide the four attached recent HWRF forecasts for when Irma may make landfall near Miami:

Title: "Predicting Irma’s Path Is Giving Supercomputers a Challenge"

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-irma/predicting-irma-s-path-giving-supercomputers-challenge-n798961

Extract: "The importance of perusing multiple models was exemplified again this week as the GFS model predicted a phenomenally low 870 millibar atmospheric pressure reading, said Masters. That would indicate winds of 200 miles per hour, or more, could be on the way.

But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm, increase pressures into the 920-millibar range, and reduce wind speeds. So while the GFS model might indicate “a ridiculous, totally off the scale, hurricane," Masters said, "the other models say it’s likely we merely have a ridiculous hurricane.”"

[logicmanPatrick]

Possible 4th hurricane on same path?

Tropical wave behind Jose -

[Sigmetnow]

I'm not overstating in saying these tiny shifts in the models (e.g. ECMWF 12z today vs. yesterday) are worth tens of billions of dollars...
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/905856187870138368
Radar GIF at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

[Image #1], Hurricane Andrew (1992).
[Image #2], Hurricane Irma (today).
(images to scale)
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905838909816492032

Why compare to Andrew?
These Pictures of Hurricane Andrew’s Path Show Why Florida Is Tracking Irma So Closely
http://fortune.com/2017/09/05/hurricane-andrew-photo-damage/

Edit.  This GIF:
I combined the images of Hurricane Andrew (1992) & Hurricane Irma (today) at scale in a gif. Irma is a damn leviathan.
https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058

[Sigmetnow]

Flood Hazard Outlook.  Includes the entire state of South Carolina.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

[gerontocrat]

But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm...

I read that the sub-surface waters over which Harvey travelled were very warm, providing even more energy and water. Are the sub-surface waters on the way to Florida cooler, or are they warm enough to supply Irma with yet more ammo?

[AbruptSLR]

But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm...

I read that the sub-surface waters over which Harvey travelled were very warm, providing even more energy and water. Are the sub-surface waters on the way to Florida cooler, or are they warm enough to supply Irma with yet more ammo?

gerontocrat,

The Wunderground quote was made with regards to comparing various model procedures and making relative statements, i.e. that HWRF hurricane forecasts are generally more accurate than GFS forecasts.  Furthermore, due to climate change, both sea surface temperatures (SST) and sub-surface temperature are warmer than they use to be (note that the first attached nullschool image of SST today is warm, and that the second image of SSTA shows just how much warmer it is than the baseline).  So to answer your question more directly, Irma is now a Cat 5 but it is projected to weaken to a Cat 4 soon; and the subsurface water temperatures are sufficiently lower than the surface water temperatures that the HWRF forecasted Cat 4 strength is lower than the GFS forecasted Cat 4 strength.

Best,
ASLR

Edit: As an example of the differences in the HWRF and the GFS forecasts, HWRF as Irma making landfall with a central low pressure of about 917 mb, while GFS has a corresponding pressure of about 898 mb.

[Sigmetnow]

Irma (left, Cat 5) and Jose (right, just upgraded to Cat 3)
Simultaneous major hurricanes for the first time in seven years.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905899594357383171

[Sigmetnow]

For reference, about 85% of Miami-Dade County is below 10ft elevation. A direct hit from Irma at high tide would be catastrophic.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905893892268150785

The storm surge forecast is 5-10 ft from Palm Beach to Miami to Key West to Naples. That's high end for the area and life-threatening. #Irma
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/905828359258689537

[Sigmetnow]

A remarkable stat:  Other storms have spent longer at Cat. 5 throughout their lifetime, but #Irma has satellite era record for consec hrs.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905903068973338624

As of 5 EDT (21 UTC ), Irma has been Cat 5 storm for 66 consecutive hours. Satellite era record for N. Atlantic was 42 hours (Mitch, David).
https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/905898336053370880

[Sigmetnow]

5pm update.
"It is become more likely that Irma will make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state."
"A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys.  This means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in those areas."

[Sigmetnow]

5-day total precipitation.  The map has remained quite stable for several days.

[Sigmetnow]

This may not be the exact landfall point in South FL, using it as an example to show how expansive winds get by Saturday. Gusts in mph #Irma
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/905907442000723969

[Sigmetnow]

Pretty frightening solutions on the European Ensembles. Good consensus now for a destructive #Irma making landfall in S FL. #nbcct
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/905905540391469056

[Sigmetnow]

After devastation to the Leeward islands from #Irma, Major Hurricane #Jose is forecast to serve a 2nd major blow this weekend. Just horrible
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905905482157711361

Hurricane Jose has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane.  It is "only Category 3" yet pales in comparison to monster Category 5 #Irma
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905905218302423040

[AbruptSLR]

The two attached nullschool images show the 250 hPa winds at 6pm EDT on Sept 9th and 10th, respectively.  They illustrate how the jet stream guides the tracks for both Irma and Jose:

[Sigmetnow]

If you live in area of ZONE C marked in map, you're now under the mandatory evacuation order in #MiamiDade, just like Zones A, B More @nbc6
https://mobile.twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/905887692818407424
Evac map at the link.  You are urged to evacuate tonight.

- The NOA coordinates are tracking close to the Turkey Point nuclear power plant. Do you know if they are prepared?
- Only @insideFPL knows. Storm surge could be extreme there.
https://mobile.twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/905889338554290179

Thousands and thousands of cars streaming north on interstate 95 near the Georgia -South Carolina border
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/905889339967754240
Video clip of highway traffic at the link.

Image: current traffic flow in Florida, via Google Maps.

Edit: about 39% of gas stations in Florida have fuel as of 7pm Thursday.
http://tracker.gasbuddy.com

[Sigmetnow]

High tide at Virginia Key in Miami

Sunday 12:13 AM & 12:50 PM

Low tide at 6:31 AM

#Irma

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905891230462115840

[Geoff]

Even though it looks like Jose should be fine and stay in the atlantic in the forecast above:

it may be bad (forecast from yesterday)

[Sigmetnow]

Potential storm surge inundation. Feet (0.3 m) above ground level.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?inundation#contents

[A-Team]

Not to put too fine a point on it at a time of hectic breaking news, but the Andrew/Irma pair above were not rescaled nor oriented correctly. Best practice is to check work at large scale as a rapid-fire two-frame gif. Andrew is dropped onto the Irma layer by 'lighten only' which only works because the two are spatially displaced in the source images and Irma is darker underneath.

[Sigmetnow]

Florida governor is closing all schools, enabling them to be used as shelters as needed.

Governor Scott Closes All K-12 Public Schools, State Colleges, State Universities and State Offices to Begin Preparations Immediately

On September 7, 2017, in News Releases, by Staff
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Today, Governor Rick Scott is directing all public K-12 schools, state colleges, state universities and state offices to close Friday, September 8 – Monday, September 11.

Governor Scott said, “Today, I am directing the closure of all public schools, state colleges, state universities and state offices for their normal activities effective Friday through Monday, to ensure we have every space available for sheltering and staging. Floridians are facing a life-threatening storm in Hurricane Irma, and every family must prepare to evacuate. Our state’s public schools serve a vital role in our communities as shelters for displaced residents and staging areas for hurricane recovery efforts. Closing public schools, state colleges, state universities and state offices will provide local and state emergency officials the flexibility necessary to support shelter and emergency response efforts.”

For detailed shelter information, visit www.fldoe.org/irma and www.floridadisaster.org/info

http://www.flgov.com/2017/09/07/governor-scott-closes-all-k-12-public-schools-state-colleges-state-universities-and-state-offices-to-begin-preparations-immediately/

[Sigmetnow]

8pm update

"...IRMA PUMMELING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS..."

"Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 919 mb (27.14 inches)."

[morganism]

 Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits 11h11 hours ago

"Hoping #Irma's cold wake, seen here in the suppression of the cumulus field, will slow #Jose down as it approaches Leeward Islands Friday."

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits

"And by slow down, I don't mean literally - I mean slow down Jose's strengthening trend, or reverse it."

[Pmt111500]

comparing the size of Andrew and Irma, as a-team did above, it's hard not to think the tropical Atlantic has now warmed enough to produce storms the size previously seen only in West Pacific, where the tracks of major typhoons can extend way longer than in Atlantic. Maybe compare also to the widest storms previously seen over Atlantic.

[Andre]

Latest GFS 00z run and 11pm NHC update:

[Andre]

We should expect to see more evacuation orders for Georgia as well. Storm surge and rainfall should be significant.

 Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham noted in a blog post Wednesday: "The region from northeast Florida (St. Augustine) through all of the Georgia coast and southwest South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to storm surge, whether or not Irma makes a direct landfall in that region."

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

Latest from Wunderground: (10pm Thursday)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/triple-trouble-cat-5-irma-cat-3-jose-cat-1-katia

[AbruptSLR]

In the latest HWRF forecasts, Irma tracks more along the North-South centerline of Florida, but per the attached images issued Sept 8th, it still impacts the Greater Miami area for well over 9 hours (beginning early Sunday morning):

[BenB]

According to Windy/ECMWF, Jose will hang around north-east of the Bahamas for a while,
 and by next Sunday it will be a bit of a monster just off the US coast:

https://on.windy.com/jpdn

Also another cyclone on its way from Cape Verde. Still in fantasy-land, so we'll have to wait and see.

[AbruptSLR]

According to Windy/ECMWF, Jose will hang around north-east of the Bahamas for a while,
 and by next Sunday it will be a bit of a monster just off the US coast:

https://on.windy.com/jpdn

Also another cyclone on its way from Cape Verde. Still in fantasy-land, so we'll have to wait and see.

Here is an image of the Windy forecasted location of Jose on Sept 17 2017.  Hopefully, as it moves Northward it does not hang a left turn and follow a Sandy track towards New York:

[Forest Dweller]

Landfall per GFS, sunday.
Everglades has the moisture and temperature Irma thrives on it seems.
Far inland, nice and shallow.
Beckwith mentioned water on land recently before this outlook, in relation to landfall of cyclonic storms.
If it is significant here is the optimal test case i guess.

[Forest Dweller]

Reports trickling in from Virgin Islands have recorded wind speed at 360 kmph, or 224 mph.
That would be a record?
Wow, and expectations are this wench Irma has not shown us her worst yet.
I don't see much from Turks, Caicos, Bahamas yet but it was a little less heavy there, more vulnerable though it appears.
Florida may well record an unfathomably even stronger wind with all the monitoring equipment present.

[gerontocrat]

NHC still say Jose not a threat to the 48, but Baruda (and St Martin?) will get a swipe tomorrow.
Given that they are wrecked already .....

[Sigmetnow]

2pm Intermediate Advisory; wind probability and timing; rainfall.

[Daniel B.]

Reports trickling in from Virgin Islands have recorded wind speed at 360 kmph, or 224 mph.
That would be a record?
Wow, and expectations are this wench Irma has not shown us her worst yet.
I don't see much from Turks, Caicos, Bahamas yet but it was a little less heavy there, more vulnerable though it appears.
Florida may well record an unfathomably even stronger wind with all the monitoring equipment present.

Unlikely.  The prolonged period of category 5 and minimal interaction over land as weakened this beast slightly.  Down to a category 4, with wind speeds of 155 mph.  If she moves too close to Cuba, she will weaken eve further, before pummeling Florida.

[Forest Dweller]

Gerontocrat; yes, especially Barbuda it seems.
Dutch navy is saying they might move away for José from St. Maarten to keep the ships safe.
Pussies if you ask me.
The marines on St. Maarten now are tolerating looting of food/water and also theft until more help arrives.
They are said to number around 40 now and José might impede reïnforcement.
1 airplane only has been active and criticism of the Dutch government is increasing as citizens report shooting and gangs with machetes etc.
Although overall impression is not violent and chaos yet, potential is there it seems.
Dutch had better get off their ass IMHO.

[A-Team]

Rather nice 4x4 animated tile-up of all the Goes-16 satellite channels that are the source of all the Irma imagery (along with VIIRS on the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite).

They are still obsessing over labelling every last image "non-operational" which the public does NOT need to hear now or ever. It merely means Goes-16 instruments are fully operational but perhaps still undergoing calibrations and positioning. Very similar language is used to "commission" a new sailboat which just means testing its systems for a few months close to harbor before crossing an ocean.

https://satelliteliaisonblog.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/20170907_irma_16p_anno.gif

I dunno about "looting". In marine salvage, if the ship and its equipment or cargo have been abandoned, it's up for grabs under international law if you can bring it ashore. There is terrible poverty in the Caribbean, terrible disparities in wealth between the "former" slaves who make up 95+% of the residents, their resort hotel masters, and private mansion owners like Trump who don't spend even a week a year in their $19,000,000 beachfront palacios. (It's the same here in Tucson where I live!)

[Sigmetnow]

I don't think an association between tropical cyclones and earthquakes has been shown statistically, but maybe it should be revisited....


Mexico hit by 'strongest earthquake in a century' as magnitude 8.2 tremor triggers tsunami waves
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/08/mexico-earthquake-magnitude-8-tremor-rattles-buildings-capital/

How strong is Hurricane Irma? It’s registering on earthquake-detecting seismometers
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article171359692.html

[Sigmetnow]

NWS Director: With #Irma, a G4 geomagnetic storm, & tsunami monitoring this morning, @NWS is monitoring, forecasting and warning from "Sun to Sea"
https://twitter.com/nwsdirector/status/906168548107702272

[Forest Dweller]

Daniel B.;  Models appear to graze Cuba, which would indeed suck up some of Irma's energy.
Main island Bahamas as well, to their misfortune.
Then there is a bit of potential again as she nears Florida and not much buffers.
I ain't betting on anything but the models...good luck to all.

[wili]

Latest Euro has Irma hitting Naples. Lots of warm water on that side:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906214285403189252

[Forest Dweller]

Sigmetnow; a quake was shown by USGS between Puerto Rico/Hispaniola right where Irma passed and destroyed.
Interestingly, that fault runs straight to the Chiapas 8.1....

[Forest Dweller]

USGS quakes and faultlines.

[Sigmetnow]

Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

When using ACE, Friday afternoon is the most active the Atlantic has ever been during the satellite era.
https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/906227025723215874
Data at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

Tropical tornadoes are destructive and form very quickly. In 2004 remnants of Francis caused 22 tornadoes in [South Carolina] when the center was in w. [Georgia]
https://twitter.com/nwscolumbia/status/906140645601005569
Safety infographic at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

12z GEFS mean is fairly close to the 6z mean, and now much more clustered just W of Miami. Biggest change is removing all tracks to the E
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/906233641860247552

[Sigmetnow]

When home depot out of plywood
https://twitter.com/BudElliott3/status/906216276955148288