'fossils will be gone by 2034'? 'in ten years 50% of the renewables we need will already have been bought and installed'? not that I wouldn't like to see it, but I'll bet very serious money that neither prediction even comes remotely close to coming true
sofouuk, "bet very serious money that neither prediction even comes remotely close to coming true" is exactly, what a company investing in future renewables must do. I would suggest to reconsider your bet due to some reasons I will explain. But first I want to make clear what I was talking about:
I was talking only about electrical power generation - the market for PV & wind and its competition from new renewables technologies. Fossils will probably be used for e.g. transportation longer.
Furthermore I would consider the market for fossil electrical power generation "dead" after renewables have >70% market share. At that time fossils will only be used in windless winter time as backup for wind & PV and only until the future grid is ready rendering backup and storage useless. The latter may be in 2034 if politics reacts now accordingly or may be later if politics does nothing...
However - any new renewables technology based on sun will not compete with fossils anymore in 2034, since in the dark time it is out, too.
So you think 50% renewable in 10 years is unlikely? Since we have 25% today and will have 43% in 2020 and 63% in 2030 (prognosis by federal network agency, see my Reply #423) - I think it is a conservative linear extrapolation.
If you are betting now your money by investing in renewables not on the market now / not scaled to mass production (dozens of TWh) in 10 years you should know, that we have allready "peak capacity installation" for renewables these days (in Germany that peak was in mad 2011 Fukushima year). It is safe to assume, that new installation (in Wh) will be constant between now and we reach about 75% and decline after that a bit to converge to a constant replacement rate. At the same time prices keep on dropping - so the renewable market is allready a shrinking market in terms of revenue. That is also observed by Renewables 2014 Global Status Report by REN21 (see Yuha's Reply #398) - that is the best free renewables market report I know. Maybe some extra demand in undeveloped countries will be generated when prices drop significantly - but you will not like to bet your money on new technologies sold for low prices.
So you are betting your money, that a new technology starting now and maybe scaled in 10 years will comepete in a shrinking market against existing technology, which allready is prooven to scale nicely? You should not need that money you are betting on that...
The same for fossil and nuclear: In this situation described above it is insane to invest in fossil or nuclear power plants unless you can get a guarantee from government for fix prices for 20-30 years (similar to renewables). But in a free market such investments would be like suicide. Renewables are so much tipped.