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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 1198700 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #500 on: November 01, 2014, 07:23:37 PM »
Incredible early-season snow slams the Southeast US, impacts felt across eastern U.S.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/01/incredible-early-season-snow-slams-the-southeast-impacts-felt-across-eastern-u-s/

@capitalweather: Earliest snow on record in Columbia, SC. Tons of snow in the mtns. (Pic via @EdPiotrowski)  http://t.co/L51Gylqp9g http://t.co/tCx94jnYUy

@RyanMaue: -6.7 deviations from 30-yr mean puts 500 mb height anomaly as left tail outlier.  How does one get sub-540 dam Z? http://t.co/qfqKRAaYx3
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #501 on: November 01, 2014, 08:00:55 PM »
@RyanMaue: Temperatures in Europe at record highs. http://t.co/C7IStdvBGo
In warm sector of sprawling Icelandic low (GFS 2.0) http://t.co/FiENhbaEel
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #502 on: November 03, 2014, 01:25:33 PM »
Another strongest Pacific storm!  Not expected to hit land... until perhaps U.S./Canada....

http://mashable.com/2014/11/02/super-typhoon-nuri-strongest-storm-2014
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #503 on: November 05, 2014, 03:52:13 AM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #504 on: November 05, 2014, 03:56:52 AM »
How Typhoon Nuri is changing the weather forecast in North America

Quote
Typhoon Nuri, which was one of the two strongest storms on Earth so far this year, is going to help bring another shot of cold, Arctic air to the Midwest and East Coast later this week. That a typhoon near Japan could have a ripple effect on the weather in Detroit and New York just a few days later may be difficult to fathom, but it illustrates the myriad ways in which the world is an interconnected place.
http://mashable.com/2014/11/04/how-super-typhoon-nuri-increases-the-risk-of-extreme-weather-in-north-america/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #505 on: November 05, 2014, 04:08:13 AM »
Quote
Combined with some other atmospheric patterns that favor cold weather in the eastern U.S., Nuri’s extremely low pressure is poised to kick-start a domino effect on weather in the Northern Hemisphere over the next few weeks. In particular, it will spur a parade of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern U.S. in November.

The storm’s deep low pressure will build a strong ridge in the eastern Pacific and over western North America. This, in turn, will force cold, Arctic air to surge south in the central and eastern U.S. over the next few weeks.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/04/typhoon-nuri-forecast-to-kick-start-a-parade-of-cold-outbreaks-in-eastern-u-s/
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Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #506 on: November 07, 2014, 03:46:56 PM »
From another part of the forum:

Flooding is happening now in Rome, right after similar events in Northern Italy and SE France:

Red alert Rome braced for ‘water bombs’
Quote
With the civil protection department expecting torrential rain to lead to “water bombs”, the authorities decided to close schools and monuments in Rome Thursday. Thursday. Rome Prefect Giuseppe Pecoraro earlier said that the weather forecasts were “unprecedented” and suggested Romans avoid leaving their homes. …

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/115572/Red-alert-Rome-braced-for--water-bombs-.html


Violent storms lash the French Riviera


http://www.thelocal.fr/galleries/news/in-images-violent-storms-lash-french-riviera

    Tuscany residents saved as floods hit Italy

    http://www.thelocal.it/20141105/tuscany-residents-saved-as-floods-hit-italy
       

        France deluged with massive rainfall


        Nice got 160mm in 24 hours.

        http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/29921484

(Thanks, as often, to COBob for pointing these out over at robertscribbler's blog.)

I know that Montpellier has been hit twice very heavily, in the past month or two. Does anyone know if Montpellier is hit again by floods? And if so, what are the odds of getting hit by extreme weather three times in a row? Are we talking like three 1-in-50-year-floods (for instance) in a row here?

I mean, twice, okay, but three times?
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Laurent

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #507 on: November 07, 2014, 06:57:53 PM »
I don't know about Montpellier as such but it is part of the Herault departement and again many towns have been hit. All the south east of France nearly.
Some videos, if you want to see :
http://www.leparisien.fr/environnement/videos-inondations-catastrophe-naturelle-pour-371-communes-supplementaires-07-11-2014-4273501.php

ritter

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #508 on: November 07, 2014, 07:52:55 PM »
Quote
As It Turns Extra-Tropical, Typhoon Nuri Could Challenge All-Time Record

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/11/06/362008782/as-it-turns-extra-tropical-typhoon-nuri-could-challenge-all-time-record

Hold on to your hats, Alaskans. Potential record storm is knocking at your doors. Predicting 45-foot waves near the western Aleutian Islands.  :o

deep octopus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #509 on: November 07, 2014, 08:09:11 PM »
I'm checking out the Null School wind and SLP maps. Winds are up to 105 km/hr (65 mph) in the northeastern quadrant, central pressure down to 948 hPa when I last checked: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-181.44,54.21,3000

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #510 on: November 08, 2014, 01:21:11 AM »
Storm in the Mediterranean is being called a "Medicane" -- not unheard of previously, but very rare.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2854&cm_ven=tw-jm
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #511 on: November 08, 2014, 02:05:48 PM »
Winds are up to 105 km/hr (65 mph) in the northeastern quadrant, central pressure down to 948 hPa when I last checked

NOAA now have the central pressure down to 924:  http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #512 on: November 12, 2014, 01:43:06 AM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #513 on: November 12, 2014, 02:20:12 AM »
 @EricHolthaus: Amazing paragraph right here for weather nerds, via @NWSWPC:
"Effects of the deep Bering Sea cyclone have totally displaced the low-level thermal profiles in this region of the Western Hemisphere"

http://t.co/mz8OIXd3aQ
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #514 on: November 14, 2014, 01:33:58 AM »
@AmandaWills: Waterfalls in Milan's metro station as Italy faces extreme flooding
 http://t.co/YfI2Y5QIKx http://t.co/QKfgLsGnU0
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #515 on: November 14, 2014, 01:56:13 AM »
Warm Arctic, Cold Continent?  Massive dip in the polar jet stream over North America flips heat to north, cold to south.

http://mashable.com/2014/11/13/coldest-temperatures-united-states/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #516 on: November 14, 2014, 07:55:10 PM »
Significant flooding and infrastructure damage in the UK.

Quote
LONDON — Britain and Northern Ireland have had a week of biblical weather as severe storms moved in from the west.

A man disappeared after being swept out to sea, railway lines were closed and a section of the M25 collapsed during several days of fierce weather. The Environment Agency has issued 20 flood alerts as winds of almost 100mph were recorded on the southern coast of England.
http://mashable.com/2014/11/14/uk-floods/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #517 on: November 19, 2014, 11:14:54 PM »
Buffalo, New York just received up to six feet! of snow in places, due to arctic outbreak winds blowing over the unfrozen Great Lakes. It has all the hallmarks of global warming.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/19/lake_effect_snow_in_buffalo_climate_change_is_making_snowstorms_more_extreme.html

James A Fry (@JamesAFry) tweeted at 11:33pm - 18 Nov 14:
Landing in #buffalo at 11pm #snowmageddon14 #LakeEffect #beyondthewall pic.twitter.com/oSBLhyPECF
(https://twitter.com/JamesAFry/status/534927493837651969?s=17)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #518 on: November 21, 2014, 05:06:51 PM »
Roofs are collapsing under all the lake effect snow near Buffalo, NY.  More snow, then warming and rain, are in the forecast.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/21/us/winter-weather/index.html
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #519 on: November 21, 2014, 06:53:16 PM »
Sigmetnow

Quote
Buffalo, New York just received up to six feet! of snow in places, due to arctic outbreak winds blowing over the unfrozen Great Lakes. It has all the hallmarks of global warming.
Yes - but the BBC won't report the global warming connection. This morning, they had meteorologist Kevin O'Neill from Buffalo comment in their flagship radio programme Today.  As I remember ... cold air across warm lakes  ... some areas had heavy snow but others nearby didn't ..... No mention of global warming. I tweeted O'Neill to ask why.

Same yesterday on BBC Radio 5. Snow in East ... Californian drought in West but hoping for an El Nino. No mention of global warming. I added this one to my list of complaints to the BBC.
http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/bbc-the-back-business-campaign/
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Laurent

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #520 on: November 21, 2014, 07:39:26 PM »
What's behind snowmageddon that hit the US this week?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26600-whats-behind-snowmageddon-that-hit-the-us-this-week.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.VG-FTFHWTlc

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #521 on: November 21, 2014, 08:10:57 PM »
I've read many articles on this subject that take the opportunity of "the coldest November morning in the US since 1976" to debunk global warming and some even warn of global cooling which will disrupt food supplies and cause hardship. Amazing.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #522 on: November 22, 2014, 12:23:57 PM »
A poster on another site linked to a US talk show host saying something like " the coldest morning since 76' debunks global warming and the fact I ate earlier means an end to world hunger......."
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Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #526 on: November 28, 2014, 01:49:41 AM »
So the south of France is being hit by storms and floods again? Is that the fourth time this autumn? Anyone from the AGW blogosphere covering this?

Quote
More violent storms set for south of France

Published: 27 Nov 2014

The south of France is set to be lashed by more extreme weather with some 12 departments placed on alert for floods on Thursday after violent storms and heavy rain were forecast.

France’s meteorological service Météo France issued warnings for storms, rainfall, and floods for a dozen regions in the south of France that will remain in place until Saturday morning.

The departments Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Hautes-Pyrénées, Haute-Garonne and Ariège are on alert for strong winds while Aveyron, Ardèche, Gard, Hérault, Lozère, Tarn and the two Corsican departments face the risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall. The Var department is also on alert for potential floods.

Météo France expects that up to 240 mm of rain will fall in the Languedoc region, and up to 150 mm over the Cévennes in the Ardèche department, in just 24 hours.

Météo France also urges caution in areas where the grounds are already completely saturated with water due to the recent heavy rainfall.

Winds may reach up to 110 km/h in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Hautes-Pyrénées, Haute-Garonne and Ariège departments. 

The warnings are just the latest to be handed out for southern France, which has been frequently battered by extreme weather throughout the autumn.

Earlier this month, heavy storms and rainfalls wreaked havoc in parts of the region.

The Ardèche department was hit especially hard after river banks burst and flooded the area and some 6,000 homes were left without power. Firefighters were called out to deal with almost 100 incidents.

“We have an enormous amount of damage, with walls collapsing onto roads,” said deputy mayor of an Ardèche village Michel Aymard at the time.

“We’ve only just received the financial aid from the government for damage caused by flooding in 2013,” he said.
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Laurent

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #527 on: November 28, 2014, 10:31:37 AM »
Deadly future heatwaves could kill thousands in Britain, warn scientists
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/11256139/Deadly-future-heatwaves-could-kill-thousands-in-Britain-warn-scientists.html

Well, I am afraid France will be hit also... ;)

Clare

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #528 on: November 28, 2014, 10:42:25 AM »
Brisbane evidently had a v bad damaging hailstorm last evening, but this slow motion video clip makes it look almost 'elegant' if it is not unfair to use such a description under the circumstances?!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/brisbane-storm-watch-the-hailstorm-in-slow-motion/story-e6frg6n6-1227138693359


Michael Hauber

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #529 on: November 28, 2014, 11:14:13 AM »
As a local, storms that bad happen every year or two somewhere within a hundred or so kilometres of Brisbane.  This one was unusual in that it hit the very center of the city, so affected a lot more people than normal.  Of course a very important component of its intensity was the amount of warm moist air available which is obviously increasing as the world warms.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

pikaia

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #530 on: November 28, 2014, 11:23:10 AM »
Deadly future heatwaves could kill thousands in Britain, warn scientists
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/11256139/Deadly-future-heatwaves-could-kill-thousands-in-Britain-warn-scientists.html

Well, I am afraid France will be hit also... ;)

We actually get many more deaths in winter, up to 400 per day in January compared to July, so any extra heat deaths would be easily offset by the reduced deaths due to cold.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_337459.pdf

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #531 on: November 28, 2014, 02:50:43 PM »
Pik, maybe. But that assumes that those extra winter deaths are all due one way or another to the cold. It also assumes that you won't have very extreme events of various sorts in winter, even though you almost certainly will.

Also, more on the violent Brisbane supercell hailstorm here:


The worst hail storm to hit Brisbane in a generation has been declared a catastrophe by insurers and prompted the Queensland government to call in the military to help clean up the damage
.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/28/brisbane-stunned-by-severe-storm-no-time-to-evacuate-no-warning
« Last Edit: November 28, 2014, 03:12:41 PM by wili »
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LRC1962

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #532 on: November 28, 2014, 08:20:20 PM »
As with all things weather related, not one can really be called proof of AGW. It is the accumulative of events that give rise to proof. As in a piece I came across a while ago stated. "When the NY governor callls the US President for the forth time during his (the governor's) time of office about the once in a century event, you have to wonder."
The other issue that is always raised is death tools and costs. Just remember populations and infrastructures have been all raising rapidly in the last few decades in all these storm areas.Not that most can just get up and leave them, but that is the reality.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #533 on: November 30, 2014, 01:33:31 PM »
What I do see occurring across the weather sites I frequent is the constant denial of any linkage to AGW when an extreme weather event occurs? Most sites separate out 'weather' from 'climate change' yet the Deniers cannot resist posting denials even when the event is rightly placed in the 'weather sections'. Why are they so keen to break house rules to get in their POV?

Surely they themselves note how frequently they now feel called upon to make such denials? For those posting on the longer lived weather sites they must also note a new trend in the frequency of such events? Maybe this is why they rush to post their 'move along! nothing to see here' type posts?

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #534 on: December 11, 2014, 12:40:40 AM »
Weather 'bomb' brings high waves, strong winds and power cuts to northern UK
Amazing photos.
http://mashable.com/2014/12/10/weather-bomb-uk/
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #535 on: December 16, 2014, 04:33:10 PM »
Anchorage's persistent warm weather so far this winter may be record setting
http://www.adn.com/article/20141215/anchorages-persistent-warm-weather-so-far-winter-may-be-record-setting

Laurent

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #536 on: December 22, 2014, 09:02:00 PM »
Scotland: flash flooding in Kilmarnock causes damage to homes - video
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2014/dec/22/flash-flooding-kilmarnock-damage-homes-video

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #537 on: December 23, 2014, 02:34:03 AM »
Quote
Slovenia's Mount Javornik, a popular skiing spot, was subjected to nine days of strong winds, snow and ice starting on December 1. After the storm passed, photographer Marko Korošec went to the summit to photograph the results. What he found was a wonderland of trees, vegetation and structures coated in a hard layer of ice.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/21/world/gallery/slovenia-ice-storm/index.html
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #538 on: December 23, 2014, 10:37:55 PM »

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #539 on: December 24, 2014, 06:49:36 PM »
After Jai Mitchell focused my attention on the “Annual Average Thread”, I followed the link and could log in using ‘witsend’s’ keys.

http://witsendnj.blogspot.nl/2014/12/all-about-us.html

Thanks Jai.

Dr. James White makes a clear case on the risks taken by humanity. I somewhat knew the sudden, paleo-climatic events called ‘Dansgaard-Oeschger’. But it was new for me that the ice-cores taken on the GIS can be evaluated now to show what White presented.
That doesn’t completely knock me off, for somehow I suspect the strong temperature shifts presented have a regional signature. They are not necessarily representative for the whole world. Nevertheless, the pic below, taken from the lecture, illustrates how dramatic, though regional events could wind up creating havoc on very short timeframes.



It is not that  the content in the lecture is new; in a study published in June ’89 (Dansgaard/White et al) a warming in South Greenland of about 7dC in 50 years was mentioned.
With the newest facilities and more ice-cores from better locations, the score has been precised  to mean warming rates of 10dC in 3-5 years (Younger Dryas termination).
Dr. White took all opportunities to explain that this sort of information should be considered in realistic risk assessment. In my own words, there’s a large chance of coinciding, relatively small feedbacks that could trigger this sort of abrupt change. Especially in the present situation.

I have spent hours doing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis correlations on Skin Surface Temps and so on. The idea was to look for clues whether the characteristics of the last two Arctic seasons could tell me anything in context to abrupt change in the form of a Heinrich-/D-O Event? I had the GIS-melt 2012 in mind, though a 500+ Gt loss is small compared to the massive meltwaterpulses that have ended the Weichselien. The loss is even small compared to the yearly freshening in the Arctic Ocean through melt and rivers.

You won’t be surprised that I got no clues. There’s no linear relation to the increased SIE during the summers ’13 and ’14, however, a freshening could have contributed. There’s no clear connection to a decrease in the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), though the last two summers the Barentsz and Kara Seas seem to have reversed in their supposed new Atlantic mode. Comparing winter and summer data from NCEP/NCAR, at least I got a confirmation that more sea ice over there is mainly related to specific weather circulation during summer.

The weird part (that’s why I chose this thread for the post) in the whole configuration has several sides, in my perception at least. One is the fledgling Nino event. Two is worldwide high mean SST’s, over a 1-2 year period, culminating in rising PDO-values. Three is the complementary/contrary behaviour in SST, wind circulation and sea ice extent around Antarctica. 
All these elements tend to suggest that Arctic ice extent- and volume retention ( I wouldn’t call it ‘growth’) is a peculiar, temporally side-effect within a continuing trend.
And while the GHG-forcing passes 400 ppm CO2, I see Dr. White’s lecture as a strong warning that that trend could facilitate a bad surprise. That’s why I regularly suggest a ‘black swan’ event that could lead to an icefree Arctic Ocean sooner than expected.
When? It’s in my eyes impossible to predict. Not by using statistical approaches nor modelling. The correlations and teleconnections are too complex. To get focused attention, worldwide, a sectoral approach based on SIE for instance doesn’t work. There’s too much short term noise.

I hope lectures like the one presented by Dr. White could spread insight in the intricate connections that drive the climate system. The insight should be that the system is now at a stage where relatively small perturbations can have abrupt consequences.

For tonight, though, I wish all of the blogfriends a merry Christmas and some solace in love and friendship.

jai mitchell

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #540 on: December 24, 2014, 07:13:14 PM »
Werther,

I understand that you are operating from an "outside-in" perspective on the 2013/2014 melt season analysis.  I posted this on another thread and due to strict observational quality of the data, I suggest that this also be included in your analysis.  We already know that reduced early-season melt pond formation is the primary predictor for higher late season sea ice volumes.


This is the weather pattern that causes the cooler arctic temperatures in the beginning of the melt seasons of 2013 and 2014.



The pattern is caused by a "ridiculously resilient ridge" of high pressure that formed in the North East Pacific during this time.

It caused increase clouds and decreased temperatures which suppressed melt pond formation in the early season which has been indicated as the primary predictor of end of season sea ice minimum extent and volume.

both 2013 and 2014 exhibited similar patterns, a sharp drop in temperatures below the average on days 128 and around 155 of the year.





The blocking high pressure pattern observed in the North East pacific is much more likely under the scenarios observed under the GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project)  http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP/
but is likely caused by south-east Asian aerosols or natural variability.


It should be noted that the increase in mid-latitude moisture is consistent with the breakdown of the Ferrel cell/Arctic cell barrier and that the winter temperature anomalies of 2013/2014 indicate that this process is continuing through the winter season.  (intrusions of mid-latitude moisture cause cooling in the summer and anomalous warming spikes in winter)

The difficulty I see you having is that the initial conditions are much too different than today.  In addition, the younger dryas may have been caused by a combination of factors, including bolide impact.  In that scenario, the ice sheets contributed to long-term freshening and cooling and suppressed the milankovitch cycle warming until a tipping point was reached and a sudden resurgence of the AMOC initiated, leading to rapid regional warming (10C north Greenland in 3-5 years).

I do not see a similar analogy in the current baseline conditions, they are simply too different.

however, I have posted in other threads that the increase in regional enthalpy gains under a summer (june 1st) ice free condition would necessarily produce an immediate (one year) 8-20C temperature anomaly, and this quite rapidly if arctic sea ice were to truly collapse in late may.

« Last Edit: December 24, 2014, 07:19:45 PM by jai mitchell »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #541 on: December 24, 2014, 07:53:29 PM »
Tallahassee, Florida, inundated with record rain due to stalled front.
Quote
By 8 p.m., nearly 7 and a half inches of rain had fallen at Tallahassee Regional Airport, breaking an all-time record for rainfall in a single day in December in Tallahassee, said Kelly Godsey, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
...
The Weather Service issued a flash-flood emergency for Tallahassee on Tuesday night for the first time ever, Godsey said. Heavy rain also was reported in Liberty and Gadsden counties, with early rainfall amounts ranging from 5 to 7 inches.

Godsey said the deluge was the product of a frontal boundary that stalled just north of the state line.

"And because that boundary was stalled, the storms just continued developing in the same location," he said.
http://www.wtsp.com/story/news/2014/12/23/record-breaking-storm-sacks-tallahassee/20844739/
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werther

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #542 on: December 25, 2014, 10:21:26 AM »
Thanks, Jai,

In the search for suppressed melt pond formation early in the season.
I did april-may; the skin surface temp anomaly does give some clues, but not in the Chukchi/Beaufort sector:



I'll try June, as it's the month melt ponds usually appear near the North Pole webcams.

What does appear in '13 and '14 is an effect from your ridge, that's for sure.
For the rest, the charts do indicate the start of a low or strong melt season. What is interesting is that the North Atlantic was on the cold side in '14. That does seem to have worked through last season.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2014, 10:45:09 AM by werther »

werther

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #543 on: December 25, 2014, 10:59:35 AM »
Well, at least I have a clue that skin surface temp anomaly doesn't tell much about the high summer ice cover:


I guess it reflects the same as DMI's plus 80dN mean temps; it always hovers around the freezing point while melting. Maybe 2 m temp anomaly is better.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2014, 10:02:13 AM by werther »

jbatteen

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #544 on: December 25, 2014, 04:31:55 PM »
Here in Minnesota, I've seen white Christmas and I've seen brown, but never green.  Until today.  There are lawns around that could be mowed.  How peculiar.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #545 on: December 25, 2014, 08:30:53 PM »
Here in Minnesota, I've seen white Christmas and I've seen brown, but never green.  Until today.  There are lawns around that could be mowed.  How peculiar.

Very warm in Chicago as well.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #546 on: December 26, 2014, 03:12:26 PM »
Chicago:  The National Weather Service posted an apology and a long explanation for their missed forecast for snow on Christmas Eve.
https://www.facebook.com/NWSChicago/posts/829972097059826
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Laurent

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #548 on: December 26, 2014, 04:54:58 PM »
Re: rapid warming moving south

Lake Baikal, near the at 53.5° N is <a href="http://www.climatehotmap.org/global-warming-locations/lake-baikal-russia.html">undergoing dramatic warming, </a>too. 

Same for areas in Canada. 


Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #549 on: December 27, 2014, 12:14:50 AM »
Quote
In what the Malaysian government is calling the worst flooding in more than 30 years, five people have been killed and more than 100,000 displaced across five east coast states.
...
While heavy rain and floods are nothing new for Malaysians, the flooded areas have been hit with “unusually strong torrential rain,” the Associated Press reported, which the country’s meteorological agency predicted will continue until the weekend, spreading into previously unaffected areas.

After a heavy round of rain and flooding in October, Chow Kon Yeow, executive councillor for local government, traffic management and flood mitigation in the Malaysian state of Penang, connected the intensity to climate change. Chow said that the region received more than a month’s worth of rain in a single night, according to the Malaysian Insider. “Some areas that have never seen floods got flooded,” he said.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/26/3606961/worst-flooding-in-decades-malaysia/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.