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crandles

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Records and oddities
« on: February 22, 2013, 12:50:53 AM »
Looks to me like we have just had coldest day north on 80N per DMI since 2004.


Neven

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2013, 01:07:38 AM »
Good topic, good opener.  :)
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Jim Williams

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2013, 02:00:21 PM »
Anyone care to tell me where all this cold is coming from?  It looks like it's coming from the South Pole; which is a bit far afield.

Jim

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2013, 03:23:19 PM »
Hi Jim (not another one! ;D ),
There seems to be a large high pressure area in the Beaufort Sea/Arctic Basin area that has a mass of cold right in the center. I wonder if this will add anything to the final ice thickness this season?

Anyone care to tell me where all this cold is coming from?  It looks like it's coming from the South Pole; which is a bit far afield.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2013, 08:05:15 PM »
I think this is going to be a very useful thread this year.

adancau

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2013, 09:08:17 PM »
First of all, long time lurker, without any formal training on the subject (only what I've picked up here). So I apologize in advance if this isn't what I think it is.

Has anyone noticed the big crack (?) that starts from around Barrow and curves towards the North Pole? It began forming about 3 days ago and has propagated quite a lot. It's visible on the IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Monitor
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Is this something normal - what I mean is - has it happened before?

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2013, 09:29:56 PM »
First of all, long time lurker, without any formal training on the subject (only what I've picked up here). So I apologize in advance if this isn't what I think it is.

Has anyone noticed the big crack (?) that starts from around Barrow and curves towards the North Pole? It began forming about 3 days ago and has propagated quite a lot. It's visible on the IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Monitor
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Is this something normal - what I mean is - has it happened before?


A reply from another first time poster!

That is a real feature, and quite unusual. There is a large section of sea ice around the Beaufort/Chukchi area that's spilling into the Bering strait in the last while. You can see it clearly on the MODIS visual imagery here http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013053.terra.4km
While leads and polynyas are common all year round, this kind of break up is quite rare so early in the year.

Last year there was a similar occurrence during April, which opened the Beaufort sea up very early http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012101.terra.4km

I think we all know how high the Beaufort SSTs got last summer.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2013, 12:30:30 AM »
Has anyone noticed the big crack (?) that starts from around Barrow and curves towards the North Pole? It began forming about 3 days ago and has propagated quite a lot. It's visible on the IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Monitor
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Is this something normal - what I mean is - has it happened before?


Hi adancau, welcome to the Forum!

On the Arctic Sea Ice Monitor page, click on the "<Prev." button near the top-right. IJIS will display the previous day's sea ice concentration map.

Then, half-way down the right-hand menu, to the right of "Wind Speed and Direction:" click the "Overlay" button.

This shows wind-speed history vectors (from WindSat) over top of that day's sea ice concentration (from AMSR2). Neat, huh?

NOTE: You *MAY* need to go back 2 days to see the various overlays as it take time to collect and process the data. But today's data WILL be up 3 days from now. Feel free to play with the other overlays too. They can be toggled on or off as you desire. The "Sea Level Pressure" overlay also shows the prevailing winds for that day. 8)

As an example, see my annotated screen capture attached below:
IJIS.2013-02-21.sic+wind.gif

Now on to your question: No, is not really normal to have a such a large crack appear so suddenly and following so exactly the contours of a single high pressure system (wind field). The wind isn't strong enough to do this to normal, healthy pack ice.

It is yet more evidence that the sea ice is thin, salty, and weak in shear strength. Ominous implications for August 2013. There's an ongoing discussion on the appearance of these flaw leads over at the ASI blog on the Feb 2013 Open Thread.

Again, welcome. Looking forward to your contributions.We're all amateurs here, even the PhD scientists that comment.  ??? If it were easy, it would already be solved.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2013, 01:12:56 AM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
Lodger

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2013, 07:15:18 PM »
I've done some digging around regards this long fracture/lead in Beaufort. Nothing as big has occurred since 1999 in QuikScat or Ascat, the weather doesn't seem that abnormal, so I think it's probably mainly due to abnormally thin sea ice.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/the-beaufort-sea-ice-lead-of-february.html

werther

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2013, 10:22:55 PM »


I thought it would be a good idea to elaborate a bit on my amateur concept ‘winter power’ here.
After three days of flu I’ve been puzzling a bit on CAD to produce the map above.
First, I use the term ‘winter power’ somewhat in line with the ‘Hellman-mark’, used to give an inter-annual comparability on severeness of winter.  The Hellman-mark is built up by the cumulation of all below-zero daily means during the winter season.
In that line, I used NCEP/NCAR to get something similar for the temperature anomaly over the whole Arctic. The method can only be used to compare different winters. It gives no information on specific anomalous periods in a single season.
But geographically, some interesting features can be scrutinized.
Up to 14 February, the mean anomaly over the Arctic Ocean was +2.5 dC. That’s quite high, though I have not taken time to check more winters.
The large +4dC area over the Bering side is due to late refreeze during Sep and Oct and the anomalous persistent high through Jan. That high was filled with unusually warm air, connected to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event.
The +8dC area centered on the Olga Strait, northern Barentsz Sea indicates continued, anomalous lack of sea ice. It allows constant warmth release from the top ocean water layer.
The +3dC area in the Baffin Bay tells something about the state of sea ice there…
I rounded up these images for some background:



The 200, 500Mb and SLP anomalies make clear why the air temperature anomaly ‘is what it is’. The whole Polar cell has been anomalously thick all winter. It had its main positive anomaly over the Laptev Sea. The main negative anomaly has been over the North Sea in Europe.
The whole set-up is AO-negative, leading to constant anomalies against the climatic westerly wind pattern.
So far, this winter produces along clear regional specifics, well in line with the general AGW trend.

werther

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2013, 10:47:57 PM »
Some thoughts I’d like to add to the post on ‘winter-power’…
For the ‘thick polar cell’… I read Wayne’s suggestions on constant adiabatic heat loss over the winter pack. I’m tempted to see an analogy here.
On the cold since 14 February: it shows on the NCEP/NCAR cumulation graph. The Bering side warm spot is getting smaller. A negative anomaly is developing in the Lincoln Sea. It is very interesting to see how long this lasts.

We have seen a parade of weirdness since September. I’ve been considering NOAA reporting 2012 as tenth warmest year on global temperature. I’ve seen ‘Wetteronline’ publishing an op-ad ‘Global warming is stagnating (21022013)’ (nonsense, IMHO). In my mind, I’m wrestling with a concept linking most large-scale climatic ocean-atmosphere features. We know heat is being stored in deeper ocean layers. In that sense, there is no stagnation. But the different consequences don’t just show up in the expected orderly form. The enormous volume loss from the Arctic sea ice and the GIS may very well have had an influence upon ENSO. We should not be surprised to see some temporary effects that contradict the trend . The growing heat-imbalance could show up soon in a form and region we haven’t become familiar with yet.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2013, 09:39:35 PM »
Werther,

Earlier this evening I saw this graphic posted by somebody, it was here but I can't remember where.
http://diogene.net/infos-news/info-news3/january.jpg

Showing January sea ice concentration in Barents January.

I've knocked up this graphic for you, but I do get you mixed up with Wipneus for some weird reason.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8369/8511351736_647d4098f0_o.jpg

I've taken NCEP/NCAR temperature timeseries, saved as numbers not image, redone for stated pressure levels, and graphed as anomalies from 1950-1979 mean. The temperatures being for the region from 65degN to the Pole between 0deg Lon (Greenwich) and 90deg E, i.e. covering Barents.

The Barents warming you find is part of a long pattern since 2005 which is concentrated in the lower part of the atmosphere and as far as I can see is due to loss of sea ice in Barents.
 I have map plots showing the warming back to 2006, but it really is a pain to upload so many plots. If you want to see them just ask.

Check out 100mb which had a +6degC anomaly, one of a select few years with strong positive anomalies in temperature.

er

that's it....  ;D

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2013, 05:43:32 AM »
The AVHRR imagery reveals that much of the remaining Beaufort sea ice shredded between 26 Feb, 2013 1903 and 27 Feb, 2013 0326.

The images are attached for comparison. Also I have posted them at:

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4real/home/arctic-sea-ice-polar-avhrr

The Feb 26-27 images are in the middle column.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2013, 07:46:00 AM »
Bloody Hell!  :o

Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2013, 08:14:25 AM »
Gob.Smacked.

Apocalypse4Real, this event NEEDS it's own thread! We are WAY past Records and oddities.

Think about the History.  :-[
Cheers!
Lodger

Jim Hunt

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2013, 09:24:34 AM »
Here's my own take on the news:

http://econnexus.org/arctic-sea-ice-is-cracking-under-the-strain/

Do you suppose that 1,738 sceptics on Twitter will be convinced by the evidence?

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

lanevn

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2013, 10:49:58 AM »
Do you think it will not refreeze this spring?

FrankD

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2013, 12:24:34 PM »
This means area will increase - those leads will freeze over and some of this slushy will head out into the Bering boosting area there. Pretty sure we're at least even money on beating last years max. The usual suspects will have their day in the sun.

Awesome news...

...well, until the sun gets back above the horizon... :(

crandles

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2013, 12:40:11 PM »
Do you think it will not refreeze this spring?


What makes you think it hasn't already refrozen?

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013057.terra.4km

The weaknesses are still there after the refreezing.

I think about 40 days earlier and this may well rapidly reduce because it is colder now than in 40 days time.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #19 on: February 27, 2013, 03:00:20 PM »
Lodger,

I think it's fine here.

Regards scale. I've knitted together a jpg of the two 250m resolution modis images that cover the main fracturing. I've worked on the assumption that this means 250m X 250m sides of each pixcel. I've used an image editor to work out the sides of a box whose diagonal describes the dimension I want to measure. Then Pythagoras theorem to work out the diagonal - the length I want to measure. I'm being needlessly specific here because despite the simplicity of what I've done I just can't get over the sizes I've come up with, as you'll see. In fact I just keep shaking my head and giggling about it.

The overall size of the fractured area is about 540km across (perpendicular to the arc of the fractures). This is similar to the distance between London and Edinburgh.

That's shown in the following annotated graphic, for those who can't picture London to Edinburgh an inset of Google Earth shows much of western Europe.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3pB-kdzoLU3RWMzYU9SVDNkZGM/edit?usp=sharing

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #20 on: February 27, 2013, 03:45:44 PM »
Thanks Chris,

The fractures have reached Banks Island....unbelievable!


ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2013, 03:55:53 PM »
How long has it taken the whole of Beaufort to go? You and A-Team have been following it more than I have.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2013, 05:36:08 PM »
I have to wonder how such fracturing will play out in the early phase of the melt season? Will the level of fragmentation aid or hinder melt?

We have seen the way flat FY ice allows the flooding of the sheet with melt water lowering albedo and hastening melt so will smaller sections limit the flooding and so slow melt or will the fragmentation increase the surface area compared to mass hastening melt?

Will the fragmentation lead to higher mobility and so lead to flush out from Berring and Fram (seeing as Pole to Fram is a similar mess) or will we just see extent Sky rocket (leading to the WUWT annual 'Recovery' thread) as the ice stretches out as it leaves the basin?

To me the fact that the Beaufort event is 2 months (nearly) ahead of last years fracturing (2 moons) I'd guess that we ought to be looking at how fast the bulk of the ice disappears this time and not how little is left come September?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2013, 06:13:05 PM »
Gray Wolf,

Fram isn't an issue here, that is the outlet from the other (Greenland) side of the pack.

This amount of fragmentation so early in the season will enhance melt by forming open water between the ice sections. Given the size of the ice masses enhanced albedo feedback due to melt water on the surfaces will still happen. IMO Beaufort just got an adrenaline shot in the minutes before the 100m sprint of the season. Given that every year Siberian sector now shows enthusiastic melt, I think betting on a recovery this year is a long shot (EDIT - make that a very long shot).

***

Beaufort (Banks) is image r05 c 02 of the MODIS Arctic Mosaic. Day 51 is here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2013051.terra
On day 51 there was no indication of what follows, even down to 250m resolution I can't see any arcing cracks that imply what follows from day 52 onwards. A slideshow of those images reveals exponential rate of advance, which makes what the latest IR image above shows inevitable.

The latest Rapidfire MODIS realtime doesn't yet cover the area of interest.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/

ritter

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #24 on: February 27, 2013, 06:17:37 PM »
Thanks Chris,

The fractures have reached Banks Island....unbelievable!

I hate to be dense (trying to connect the dots as a layperson), but this is pretty horrific news, correct? We should see solid ice, not fractures 540km across, correct? Elsewhere you said this looks like we're ~50 days ahead of schedule. Would that indicate we've essentially got nearly two extra months in the melt pipeline?

lanevn

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #25 on: February 27, 2013, 10:41:32 PM »
This amount of fragmentation so early in the season will enhance melt by forming open water between the ice sections. Given the size of the ice masses enhanced albedo feedback due to melt water on the surfaces will still happen. IMO Beaufort just got an adrenaline shot in the minutes before the 100m sprint of the season. Given that every year Siberian sector now shows enthusiastic melt, I think betting on a recovery this year is a long shot (EDIT - make that a very long shot).


On the other side that ice is packing now near Bering Strait http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif , so total amount of ice to melt is increasing.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #26 on: February 28, 2013, 02:41:24 AM »
What makes you think it hasn't already refrozen?

Hi Chris,

The telltale sign of open water is when a plume of sea smoke forms downwind of an open lead in the sea ice. See the plume SW of Pt. Barrow Alaska in the top-left of this image? The edge of the sea smoke traces the edge of the lead. However, on frozen leads further to the North (down in this MODIS picture), there is no sea smoke. Those leads have frozen over.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2013058.terra.367.500m&vectors=coast%2Bborders

I've attached two example images of 'sea smoke'. The first is an annotated MODIS image in true colour of the Nares strait near Greenland. The second image shows what sea smokes looks like from the aloft con of the US Icebreaker Healy.  :D
« Last Edit: February 28, 2013, 02:47:40 AM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
Lodger

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #27 on: February 28, 2013, 06:13:28 AM »
Chris,

The earliest Beaufort image I saved as February 8. It follows for comparative purposes, A-Team may have something earlier - from January.


ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #28 on: February 28, 2013, 07:55:12 AM »
Ritter,

Crandles has pointed out elsewhere that this is more like 40days earlier than the earliest recent occurence. IMO it does indicate thinner ice, what impact it will have on the melt season we'll have to see, but I think it does mean a quick start.

Lanevn,

Thanks for that. HYCOM shows the opening of a polnya rather than parallel fractures, but does show the net movement away from Banks that's caused this.

Lodger,

The MODIS images clearly show that most of the fractures have frozen over, with thin ice. This thin ice is still losinng a lot of ocean heat, so appears black in IR as it radiates a lot of IR. It will not thicken substantially.

Thanks for the early February graphic. That's at the time when I wasn't convinced we were seeing something very unusual. I'm sure I've seen large scale cracking before on IR in the winter. It was the opening of the large fissure/lead visible on ASCAT that was unusual. Now this behaviour looks a lot too early. Anyway I did call that earlier activity wrong - it did lead to something substantial and unusual even if it wasn't very unusual in itself.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #29 on: February 28, 2013, 10:16:52 AM »
Here's an animation of MODIS imagery over the Beaufort, Chukchi area between February 10th and and 27th. I think the last frame is the most alarming.



I've tried to attach a larger version, as photobucket seems eager to shrink everything I upload, so hopefully that's attached and working.

FrankD

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #30 on: February 28, 2013, 11:00:03 AM »
And those cracks are now appearing in M'Clure straight as well. Are we taking bets on when the NWP will open this year? 'Cos I'm begining to think June isn't looking a completely ridiculous option...

crandles

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #31 on: February 28, 2013, 11:43:53 AM »
Ritter,

Crandles has pointed out elsewhere that this is more like 40days earlier than the earliest recent occurence. IMO it does indicate thinner ice, what impact it will have on the melt season we'll have to see, but I think it does mean a quick start.

Now that the cracking has reached Banks Island on day 58, I think the 40 day estimate is understated. Reached Banks Island day 107 of 2012 so a better estimate is now 49 days. So while 51 still looks over the top, it looks like that is a better estimate than my 40. So I got it wrong, sorry.


Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #32 on: February 28, 2013, 01:42:15 PM »
I'm interested in how that released stress affects the rest of the ice pack. Some fractures are extending towards Ellesmere. From the area in the Bering, new fractures have opened almost all the way to Wrangel Is.

Time will tell if we are seeing a larger breakup event, and I have not been watching what the flow out the Fram Strait looks like.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2013, 02:27:34 PM »
It looks as though a +ve dipole/-ve AO type pattern will persist for the next week at least. This will likely increase the rate of ice flow south through Fram and also into the Barents Sea.
I think we could stick another few 100k onto the extent and area over the next 10 days, combined with the +ve anomalies on the Pacific side, possibly reaching the highest values since 2008, or even the early 00s.

ritter

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #34 on: February 28, 2013, 05:59:49 PM »
Ritter,

Crandles has pointed out elsewhere that this is more like 40days earlier than the earliest recent occurence. IMO it does indicate thinner ice, what impact it will have on the melt season we'll have to see, but I think it does mean a quick start.

Now that the cracking has reached Banks Island on day 58, I think the 40 day estimate is understated. Reached Banks Island day 107 of 2012 so a better estimate is now 49 days. So while 51 still looks over the top, it looks like that is a better estimate than my 40. So I got it wrong, sorry.

Is this supposed to make me feel better or worse?  ;D

So this thread taken with the ice extent thread indicate we've got a substantial amount of really crappy ice that will likely break up, be transported out and/or melt in short order. I'm not convinced that sea ice extent really means much any more.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #35 on: February 28, 2013, 06:35:50 PM »
This is why I think it might be an idea to pick a 'bulk meltout' date where the majority of the ice has gone to see if this date is getting earlier in the year? We saw the NW passage deep channel melt out by late july last year so maybe we should keep an eye on such?

Waiting for the final bits of ice to secumb (as new ice is forming at higher latitudes) is not really telling us anything these days (apart from how bad a shape the basin is in?) so trying to track if the younger, thinner ice is melting earlier (placing more energy into the N.Hemisphere) might make more sense?

Anyhows....
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #36 on: February 28, 2013, 09:09:32 PM »
I'm too tired to properly look at the atmosphere right now but here are two graphics that go some way towards making the process behind the fracture formation more clear.

First ASCAT.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8372/8515790123_2db7834ed8_o.gif

This shows that the Beaufort event was part of a large scale movement of the ice. The event starts after day 50, 19/2/13. When I used to follow QuikScat such events were relatively common, often associated with a shift from high to low index AO. However that doesn't apply here, the AO has been negative throughout this period.  It is worth noting that as we were all concentrating on Beaufort there was significant coastal lead opening off the Siberian coast, and that the advance of ice in the Atlantic sector is due to net clockwise movement of the bulk of the pack.

Now weather data, SLP and GPH for 500mb from Wetterzentrale.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8518/8515790223_2efca14f53_o.gif

This shows that after 19/2/13 a high pressure ridge develops trapped between two lows, creating parallel dipole features forcing a net clockwise movement on the winds over the ice. I have read that Ekman transport applies to the ice, in the NH Ekman transport is to the right of the prevailing winds, hence a high pressure causes influx towards the centre of the high pressure. Whilst it is obviously the case that this transport mechanism applies to open ocean, and in summer the water movement affects ice compaction. I am not convinced this applies to winds driving ice movement over ice covered regions. And here we seem to have a case in point - net clockwise wind movement, with net clockwise ice movement below.

I've finally downloaded Gimp, it took me all of about 45 minutes from download to ending this post having made my first animated gifs. I can recommend it.

kejad

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #37 on: February 28, 2013, 10:35:47 PM »
What are the possibilities that the cracks in the Beaufort are connected to the insanely warm water that was around the Mackenzie delta last summer?  (IIRC, the surface temps were around 20dF above normal.) 

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #38 on: March 01, 2013, 06:17:34 AM »
Chris,

Thanks for the Ascat run, very helpful to see a couple of weeks of imagery to see movement and impact.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #39 on: March 01, 2013, 07:54:44 AM »
Kejad,

I recall that warm water and remember thinking it couldn't be that warm. The Arctic ocean doesn't contain water that warm, the warmest the sun gets the top layer of the ocean is +5degC.

Why has this cracking occurred in Beaufort?

The general clockwise shift of the ice pack concentrates forces in that area. As the latest ASCAT shows -
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2013058.sir.gif
The arcs of cracking are acting as if the Multi Year Ice is a barrier as effective as land. Then at the end of the 'channel' that is in Beaufort the ice is pinned by Banks Island. 

So the general clockwise movement of the ice has resulted in tension in the sea ice resulting in the progressive arc cracking.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #40 on: March 01, 2013, 09:10:10 AM »
Kejad,

I recall that warm water and remember thinking it couldn't be that warm. The Arctic ocean doesn't contain water that warm, the warmest the sun gets the top layer of the ocean is +5degC.

Hi Chris,

I suspect Kejad is thinking about the plume of warm water near the mouth of the MacKenzie River, at about 72N 140W, shown here in this NOAA SST chart from Sep 16, 2012: (the day of the SIE record minimum)
Cheers!
Lodger

Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #41 on: March 01, 2013, 09:16:57 AM »
Hi Kejad,

It's pretty easy to demonstrate with the same NOAA SST maps that a large area of the Beaufort sea remains relatively warm (although still below 0C) from freeze-up on Nov 14, 2011 until today Feb 28, 2013.
Cheers!
Lodger

diablobanquisa

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #42 on: March 01, 2013, 02:12:02 PM »
Causes of the cracks?

In my opinion:

-Weakness of the ice: FYI, low thickness...

-Strong northeast/easterly winds in february (look at the red area north of Barrow):


-Warm waters under the ice? Maybe, but I´m not sure about this.

-Warm air temperatures? Not. February has been colder than normal in that area:

« Last Edit: March 01, 2013, 02:15:47 PM by diablobanquisa »

Jim Hunt

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #43 on: March 01, 2013, 03:12:59 PM »
In a novel development on the political front, I suddenly find myself engaging Andrew Neil and a thousand or two "climate change sceptics" in debate about the utility or otherwise of "windmills", as Andrew apparently likes to call them.

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt

Could be interesting?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #44 on: March 02, 2013, 06:14:23 AM »
Hi Jim and Jack,

No offense intended, but would you be kind to move political comments to that thread, and comments on CO2 to the Permafrost group of threads?

Politics: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,16.0.html

CO2: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,20.0.html

Thanks in advance for you considerateness. That is the beauty of the board, we can avoid interrupting a topic.

Now in regard to the Arctic Ice fracturing, the latest Ellesmere AVHRR frame reveals more fracturing and more lines appearing that may become future breaks when viewed in detail.


Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #45 on: March 02, 2013, 06:18:05 AM »
In a novel development on the political front, <snip>

Hi Jim,

This comment probably belongs in the "Policy and solutions" forum.

This thread is for Arctic sea ice, not alternate energy policy.  :o
Cheers!
Lodger

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #46 on: March 02, 2013, 07:35:17 AM »
I had tried to do this as an animated gif, but gimp is doing something weird and messing it up. Anyway...

I've taken ASCAT and highlighted the region of MYI, then superimposed the highlighted area on an IR shot of the Beaufort sea ice fracturing.



The new fracturing is clearly in the MYI region, however the intial tension failure arc fractures are shown to be constrained by the Alaskan Coast, Banks Island and the MYI.

PS - I agree with Lodger and A4R, could people please keep chat away from threads like this and on the appropriate sections of the forum.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2013, 07:38:06 AM by ChrisReynolds »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #47 on: March 02, 2013, 02:27:26 PM »
Hi Chris,

Thanks for this image, I was wondering if you would be willing to try a PIOMAS overlay. I thought I would try the HYCOM/CICE or the Godiva Sea Ice thickness imagery when I have some time.

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #48 on: March 02, 2013, 03:58:18 PM »
I have been following with amazement over the satellite imagery in this post.  Going through 2010 - 2013 visible spectrum imagery (Arctic_r05c02 Subset - Terra), one can see lot's of cracking even from day 40 in some years.  However, in previous years, either due to weather patterns or ice movement or ice thickness those cracks froze over quickly.  However this year, the cracks seem not only to be persistent but to expand rapidly.  The rapid loss of MYI, is proving what most of you have feared: once Arctic is mostly FYI the coupling of weather and thin ice will be the cause of some amazing and devastating events.  More to come.  And I thought I was glued to this blog last year's melting season.  Well, well, my shrink with have some things to say about this year's addiction.   
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

DrTskoul

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #49 on: March 02, 2013, 04:47:48 PM »
Quick question: Is MYI fragments of thick floes with slightly thinner ice in between? The following pic is from Ellesmere with a little image processing.

“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman