California weather extremes and climate

[Sigmetnow]

Dwindling groundwater supply found to have been contaminated by fracking waste.

State records show waste water from several sources, including from the oil and gas industry, has gone into the aquifer below where 60 different water supply wells are located within a one mile radius.

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/Waste-Water-from-Oil-Fracking-Injected-into-Clean-Aquifers-282733051.html#

[Sigmetnow]

California's drought gets personal with portable showers, rain barrels, and sewage water

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/19/3594226/californias-drought-gets-personal/

[bigB]

1st attachment: Global tropics precipitation anomalies during each phase of the MJO (far left composite), U.S. temperature and precipitation anomalies by MJO phase (center and far right composites). This shows the teleconnection between the active phase of the MJO and U.S. temperature and precipitation anomalies during the November-December-January time-frame. Notice that when the active phase of the MJO is in phases 1-3 (or in the Indian Ocean) during this time of year, the U.S. West Coast generally sees cooler and wetter weather. 

2nd attachment: Dynamical (top) and Statistical (bottom) forecast of MJO related anomalous OLR for the next 15 days. Notice that the active phase of the MJO (represented by the blue colors) is currently in phase 3 and is forecast to remain there until the first few days of December.

3rd attachment: Stormsurf.com GFS northeast Pacific SLP and precipitation forecast for Dec 1. Notice the large storm off the U.S. West Coast with a weak “Pineapple express” like signature (precipitation anomalies extending from the tropics/Hawaii to the U.S. West Coast).

Conclusion: CA may possibly see a moderate precipitation event sometime between November 30 and December 2, likely associated with (or at least enhanced by) a moderate-strong active phase of the MJO currently in the Indian Ocean. NOTE: it's possible the evolving El Nino event may play a part in this as well. Fingers crossed that this actually occurs, we need the rain.

For further reading on the MJO-U.S. teleconnection, I provide the following links:

See pages 19-21: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf

[Sigmetnow]

California’s Drought Is Forcing Bears, Bobcats, and Coyotes Into Suburban Backyards
As rivers and lakes dry up, wild animals are migrating to cities in search of food and water.
http://www.takepart.com/article/2014/11/19/now-californias-drought-forcing-californias-wildlife-backyards

[bigB]

Attached is NOAA's CPC December 2014 precipitation forecast for the U.S., which suggests slight drought relief may be on the way!

The following excerpts are from the linked article regarding the now predicted above normal rainfall for December:

http://www.thecalifornian.com/story/news/local/2014/11/24/normal-rainfall-now-predicted/70065560/ 

In fact, according to Rich Tinker of the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the above-normal rainfall this season is knocking the Central Coast down a notch on the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook.

Up until Friday, the majority of California was listed as an area where “drought persists or intensifies.” Now, because of soppy month ahead, the Central Coast and most of the rest of the state is listed as “drought remains but improves.” Temperatures, however, are expected to remain warmer than normal, which will further support this year as one of the warmest on record.

[bigB]

Attached is the GFS forecast (initialized 12Z Nov 30th) of total accumulated precipitation from Nov 30th through Dec 4th (courtesy Levi Cowan of Tropicaltidbits.com).

[Sigmetnow]

@EricHolthaus: For those curious, current round of rain (3-4") is about 15-20% of what's needed to end the drought in N California. http://t.co/j1OkrT93xx

[Sigmetnow]

How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought?

Abstract
For the past three years (2012-2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3-year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree-ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062433/abstract

[Sigmetnow]

@EricHolthaus: Here’s how Lake Oroville, one of California’s biggest, has responded to the recent rains. Still at ~26% capacity. http://t.co/M5ucTgcF4m

[ritter]

@EricHolthaus: Here’s how Lake Oroville, one of California’s biggest, has responded to the recent rains. Still at ~26% capacity. http://t.co/M5ucTgcF4m

What's worse is that snow pack in the Sierra is 38% of normal for this date.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action

[bigB]

The attached GFS forecast (courtesy Stormsurf.com and Tropicaltidbits.com) suggests that another moderate-strong precipitation event may be headed to CA sometime between Thursday and Saturday (Dec 11th-13th). This may be thanks to U.S.-MJO teleconnection once again. When the active phase of the MJO is in phase 7 (or roughly the Central Pacific), the U.S. West Coast typically sees wetter weather. Indeed, the active phase of the MJO is projected to be in phase 7 between Dec11th-13th. Again, the evolving El Nino conditions may be playing a role in this as well (by enhancing the teleconnection). For more details, see my above post about the U.S.-MJO teleconnection.

[Sigmetnow]

Recently... Los Angeles has reduced its reliance on outside sources of water. It has become, of all things, a leader in sustainable water management, a pioneer in big-city use of cost-effective, environmentally beneficial water conservation, collection and reuse technologies. Some combination of these techniques is the most plausible path to survival for all the cities of the water-depleted West.
...
Together, these projects will treat polluted and even sewage water, capture rainwater, store water in aquifers, and use (or reuse) all of it, often while mimicking or supporting natural processes. The area’s water administrators who, until recently, thought of watersheds as merely rural concerns now recognize that even in Los Angeles, all living things are linked by their common water course and that its proper management is essential to the administrators’ success.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/07/opinion/sunday/los-angeles-city-of-water.html

[Sigmetnow]

Buy a T-shirt, help save California from the drought?   
http://teespring.com/ConserveCalifornia

[Laurent]

California just had its worst drought in over 1200 years, as temperatures and risks rise
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/dec/08/california-just-had-its-worst-drought-in-over-1200-years

[viddaloo]

California just had its worst drought in over 1200 years, as temperatures and risks rise
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/dec/08/california-just-had-its-worst-drought-in-over-1200-years

Same study as the above. Seems CA is hit by drought not only worse than the thirties or the 'dustbowl'.

RT's angle: California drought worst in 1,200 years – study

PS: Is it correct that an el niño will probably end the drought?

[Laurent]

From what I have read on this forum, it is said El nino can bring rain but not necesseraly. If there is too much rain at once that's not very good for them. The storage will happen little and the soil's carbon will be washed away.

[jbatteen]

A solid El Nino event could definitely bring some short term relief, but multiple years of enhanced rainfall are necessary to restore the groundwater deficits.

[Laurent]

California's Worst Storm In Nearly A Decade Shuts Schools
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/10/california-storm-schools-closed_n_6305310.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

[ritter]

California's Worst Storm In Nearly A Decade Shuts Schools
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/10/california-storm-schools-closed_n_6305310.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

4.5 inches of rain in my area last night. Lots of localized flooding in the north Bay Area.

[Sigmetnow]

How California’s Water Rights Make It Tough to Manage Drought
http://blogs.kqed.org/science/audio/how-californias-water-rights-make-it-tough-to-manage-drought/

[Laurent]

California's water woes quantified
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30510263

[Sigmetnow]

California will need 11 trillion gallons of water to end epic drought, NASA says
http://mashable.com/2014/12/16/11-trillion-gallons-end-california-drought/

Andrew Freedman: The 11 trillion gallons Calif. needs to get out of drought = about 20 in. of rain per year for 4 yrs statewide, acc. to @JayFamiglietti.

[Sigmetnow]

@weatherchannel: Weekly #Drought Monitor released: Exceptional drought in #California decreases from ~55% of state to ~32%!  #CAwx http://t.co/ckBba8lss6

[Laurent]

'Atmospheric Rivers' to Soak California as Climate Warms

http://www.livescience.com/49225-atmospheric-rivers-double-climate-change.html

[Sigmetnow]

@PeterGleick: I'm calling it. California's last 36 months were the hottest & driest, by far, in the 119-yr instrumental record.

[Sigmetnow]

Survey Finds More Snow in Mountains, but Water Content Is Still Far Below Average for Date
http://www.water.ca.gov/news/newsreleases/2014/123014.pdf

[Sigmetnow]

California Droughts Could Have Dangerous Ripple Effects

Aside from the direct dangers fires pose to the people and property in their paths, they also set the stage for compounding hazards in the future, including landslides, floods and poor water quality, scientists say.  For example, burnt plant material leaves a waxy residue on forest floors that is relatively waterproof, causing storm runoff to then flow over a forest floor without seeping into the ground, Kinoshita said.  "If you pour water on it, it will run right off like a parking-lot effect," Kinoshita told Live Science. This can lead to floods, or landslides, because the burnt tree roots just below the waxy  layer offer poor support for topsoil, she said.
...
Dirty water

As forest fires singe the root systems of California's trees and weaken their ability to hold on to soil, California's water quality will also suffer as more soil gets into the drinking-water supply, said Tim Kuhn, a hydrologist for Yosemite National Park. Without ground cover to shield soil, rain droplets directly contact soil particles and mobilize heavy metals that can contaminate water, Kuhn told Live Science. Loose soil can also increases the turbidity, or cloudiness, of water, forcing water-treatment facilities to work harder to supply clean water and potentially shut down for a period during particularly large fires.

"Turbidity is a really big challenge because that's really fine sediment, and so it takes forever for that to settle out," Kuhn told Live Science. "It becomes a real treatment issue."

http://news.yahoo.com/california-droughts-could-dangerous-ripple-effects-194910410.html

[jai mitchell]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2015/01/01/no-doubt-its-a-climate-change-drought-scientists-say/

No Doubt It's A Climate-Change Drought, Scientists Say

To frame the drought we should be mentioning that much of the southwest and west has been in drought now for nearly 15 years, since 1999. This is important for California because a big part of that story is the Colorado River. The major storage, the biggest reservoirs in the United States are only half full now, and precipitation this winter has been lower than average there.”

The scientists had gathered in part because a recent study from NOAA has been interpreted to suggest the drought derives from the natural variability of the climate. But these three scientists say that  interpretation derives from NOAA’s focus on only one aspect of the drought—mean rainfall. When you look at the drought as an extreme event, they said, and when you look at its probability of recurring, and when you look at not only rainfall but also temperature and evaporation, there’s no doubt what’s behind the drought.

“One of the things that is certainly making it worse is climate change,” Overpeck said. “If we really want to tackle the water problem in the west we need to tackle the climate change problem.”

Overpeck and Stanford Professor Noah Diffenbaugh said the NOAA study is sound but does not consider all of the factors that reveal the influence of anthropogenic climate change.

“I agree that all of these studies that in some cases appear at first glance to be conflicting are good science, but they all have their own focus. But one of the reasons we’re doing this press event today is that we’re trying to give you the big picture.”

[JimD]

I live in the mountains of central AZ.  The last year we had above the historical average rainfall was 1998.  Our average over the last 16 years has been about 35-40% below the long term average up to 1998. 

In some areas a lot of trees have died and I have noticed that in the burn areas below about 6500ft the usual response of the forest to have a burst of regrowth has not been occurring.  I go for walks in areas which burned about 15 years ago and the number of baby pine trees initiating the regrowth of the forest are hard to find.  What is growing is the manzanita and other brush.  I expect this is because there is not enough soil moisture any longer to sustain the baby pine trees until they get their roots deep. 

I spent a week walking thru one of AZ's biggest wilderness areas in 2014 and it was eyeopening. Before the area was designated a wilderness it was heavily ranched and the mountains were logged.  The logging took place a good 40-50 years ago.  One can still find the stumps from the trees (things rot slowly here in AZ) and some of them were 18-24 inch in diameter.  So a big substantial forest used to be there.  In the entire time since it was logged no forest has regrown.  It is all covered by brush.

People who live here (largely climate change deniers) have no idea at all what AZ was like 100-150 years ago.  It used to have forests, plenty of water, grass for livestock.  Large native American cultures used to populate this entire region.  If you got rid of everyone and returned this land to hunter gatherers almost no one could survive here any longer.

[Laurent]

California Town Turns To High-Tech Water Plant In Face Of Drought
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/03/california-drought-water-plant_n_6410154.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

[ritter]

@PeterGleick: I'm calling it. California's last 36 months were the hottest & driest, by far, in the 119-yr instrumental record.

That's a great graphic!

In other news, it appears our early good start to the season's rainfall has faltered. I hope this is not indicative of the return of the ridiculously resilient ridge that dominated last year.

[jai mitchell]

California snow pack at 40% of normal for this day of the year, only 15% of the annual average maximum (april 1).

No rain in the forecast.  If this follows the previous 2 year trend California agriculture will continue to collapse and U.S. food prices will skyrocket.

[ritter]

No rain in the forecast.  If this follows the previous 2 year trend California agriculture will continue to collapse and U.S. food prices will skyrocket.

But it was looking so promising in my area on December 11th. Plenty of water for all!



Hasn't really rained since...

You're correct--if we don't get continued precipitation this winter, especially snowpack, much of the state is screwed.

[wili]

NOAA is predicting an unusually wet spring for CA and for most of the SW as well.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/p.gif

[jai mitchell]

They also predict a wet January, this is only a 3 week look ahead.

however that has so far shown not to be the case.

[Laurent]

2014 Was California's Hottest Year On Record -- By Far
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/09/california-hottest-year-warmest-2014_n_6441096.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

[jdallen]

No rain in the forecast.  If this follows the previous 2 year trend California agriculture will continue to collapse and U.S. food prices will skyrocket.

But it was looking so promising in my area on December 11th. Plenty of water for all!

Hasn't really rained since...

You're correct--if we don't get continued precipitation this winter, especially snowpack, much of the state is screwed.

The problem problem with extremes, combined with changes in habitat.  Not enough "sponge" to hold it. Too much water to catch it.

[ritter]

No rain in the forecast.  If this follows the previous 2 year trend California agriculture will continue to collapse and U.S. food prices will skyrocket.

But it was looking so promising in my area on December 11th. Plenty of water for all!

Hasn't really rained since...

You're correct--if we don't get continued precipitation this winter, especially snowpack, much of the state is screwed.

The problem problem with extremes, combined with changes in habitat.  Not enough "sponge" to hold it. Too much water to catch it.

Yes, of course. I was just having some fun with the photo. We had some 8.5 inches in 12 hours that resulted in localized flooding. Then it all ran down the river to the ocean. And there are those in California that think that since it rained, we're no longer in drought....

[Sigmetnow]

Rains avoid California as "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" returns.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html

[jai mitchell]

Rains avoid California as "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" returns.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html

 

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

[Sigmetnow]

@ClimateDesk: California almonds suck as much water annually as Los Angeles uses in three years http://t.co/Ad5RH6APXq http://t.co/w7Xp0FBTfd

[jai mitchell]

Cowspiracy:  what environmental organizations don't want to talk about:

[Laurent]

Not the good thread but talking about milk...

‘If First Milk goes, that will finish my business overnight’
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2015/jan/13/first-milk-prices-dairy-farmers-founder-member-business

Supermarket price war leads to 50% cut in dairy farmers
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/supermarket-price-war-leads-to-50-cut-in-dairy-farmers-9971293.html

[Sigmetnow]

@EricHolthaus: After a very wet Dec, there’s a good chance of *zero* meaningful rain in N. California in Jan. Snowpack 38% of normal http://t.co/7YRCXwc424

@RobElvington: @EricHolthaus Our local Ski Park in NorCal just closed down yesterday for lack of snow: https://t.co/tuv6rsk1xV

@RobElvington: @EricHolthaus This comes after not even opening last winter.

[GeoffBeacon]

jai

Cowspiracy:  what environmental organizations don't want to talk about.

I have tried to get Wikipedia to have an entry on the carbon footprint of beef - but failed.

As far as I can see there is no [[the carbon footprint of beef]] on Wikipedia or many other everyday products and activities that were found on the website I set up. Wikipedia would be a much better place than my site.
I did offer to pay a student this summer on the carbon footprint of beef or anything else of his choice without mentioning my site. He couldn’t get past the moderator.

www.brusselsblog.co.uk/is-wikipedia-too-credentialist/

[Sigmetnow]

Interactive Map of California’s Urban Water Use
http://pacinst.org/publication/interactive-map-of-californias-urban-water-use/

[Sigmetnow]

@EricHolthaus: Last 30 days have been 25-98% below normal for precip across most of California. #cadrought still in full swing. http://t.co/PG6VyCfyIv

[Sigmetnow]

@PeterGleick: Breaking. Latest Drought Monitor report shows California #drought re-intensifying. #water #cawater http://t.co/S42p8O8mcl

[Sigmetnow]

@NWS: #Drought improvement likely in So. Calif., SW through April says NOAA forecasters. http://t.co/cnx8IgRv56 @DroughtGov http://t.co/xrYVYxctIw

[Laurent]

Striking Photos Show Struggle Of Farmers In California Drought
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/15/california-drought-farm-photos_n_6482762.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green