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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #50 on: February 20, 2014, 11:19:44 PM »
Jim,

To expand on deep octopus's explanation, per the CPC/IRI Consensus forecast: (a) the Climatological Probability curves indicate that in a typical SON period the probability of experiencing an El Nino or a La Nino, or a Neutral condition are all very close to 33.3% probability; and (b) the bars indicate that for SON of 2014, the probabilities are about: (i) El Nino: 49%; (ii) La Nina: 7%; and (iii) Neutral condition: 44%.

You might note that this 49% probability of an El Nino in SON 2014 is less than the 2014 PNAS article that cited a 76% probability of an El Nino starting sometime in 2014.  However, the CPC/IRI Consensus forecast does not accumulate probabilities over an entire year, and the Nino3.4 SST anomaly is only one measure of an El Nino event.

I also note that the figure, about the CFSv2 forecast Nino3.4 SST anomalies, that wili posted at the beginning of this thread, updates daily, and that currently (Feb 20, 2014) it is in general agreement with the CPC/IRI Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecast from early February 2014.

Best,
ASLR
« Last Edit: February 20, 2014, 11:54:25 PM by AbruptSLR »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #51 on: February 20, 2014, 11:49:45 PM »
The authors of the linked reference are looking into the future with the help of computer climate models, to study how El Niño Taimasa will change with further warming of the planet. Their analyses show, moreover, that sea-level drops could be predictable seasons ahead, which may help island communities prepare for the next El Niño Taimasa.  While this local Taimasa effect may not be significant to the rest of the world, the fact that the authors think that this effect could be predicable seasons ahead of a very strong El Nino is very important to all of us:

Widlansky, M.J., A. Timmermann, S. McGregor, M.F. Stuecker, and W. Cai, 2014: An interhemispheric tropical sea level seesaw due to El Niño Taimasa. J. Climate, 27 (3), 1070-1081, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00276.1


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00276.1


Abstract: "During strong El Niño events, sea level drops around some tropical western Pacific islands by up to 20–30 cm. Such events (referred to as taimasa in Samoa) expose shallow reefs, thereby causing severe damage to associated coral ecosystems and contributing to the formation of microatolls. During the termination of strong El Niño events, a southward movement of weak trade winds and the development of an anomalous anticyclone in the Philippine Sea are shown to force an interhemispheric sea level seesaw in the tropical Pacific that enhances and prolongs extreme low sea levels in the southwestern Pacific. Spectral features, in addition to wind-forced linear shallow water ocean model experiments, identify a nonlinear interaction between El Niño and the annual cycle as the main cause of these sea level anomalies."

JimD

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #52 on: February 21, 2014, 04:35:24 AM »
DO & AASLR

Ahh!  Thanks.  I let that one get right by me.  Have to read more carefully.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #53 on: February 22, 2014, 02:11:52 AM »
At the following link, Jeff Masters' guest: Dr. Michael Ventrice, provides an excellent explanation of why an El Nino (possibly a Super El Nino, see the attached image of the 1997-1998 Super El Nino) may be coming in 2014 (possibly beginning as early as June).  Ventrice states:

"The current Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean has achieved the same strength as the one that preceded the 1997 Super El Niño event. This is an extremely rare feat but there still has to be a number of things to happen before we can say we are headed towards a strong El Niño. We need to see the continuation of strong westerly winds near the Equator over the Central Pacific to keep the momentum forward."

and

"BOTTOM LINE: The Pacific Ocean is now in a state that could reconstruct the base state of the Pacific, favoring an El Niño to develop later this Spring. That being said, it’s not a locked in solution yet as we need to monitor the atmosphere for future westerly wind bursts to help push the Western Pacific Warm Pool along. Thanks go to NOAA for providing the majority of the images used in this post."


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2635

« Last Edit: February 22, 2014, 02:21:52 AM by AbruptSLR »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #54 on: February 22, 2014, 05:41:27 AM »
The attached image from early Feb 19 2014 to early Feb 22 2014 seems to show that the strong westerly winds near the Equator over the Central Pacific has been continuing strong since the time of Dr Ventrice's post:

You need to click on the image to make it move!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #55 on: February 22, 2014, 12:46:41 PM »
While meteorology is not my forte; nevertheless, the attached image of a NOAA surface pressure forecast for the North Pacific through Feb 25 2014 shows a low pressure system (969) centered between 40N and 50N at 150W; which I imagine might help to continue the gale force westerly winds near the equator from the Western Pacific into the Eastern Pacific by the end of March if it were to turn into a typhoon (or possibly this system is too far north to have an impact on the equatorial winds).  Who knows what will happen after that.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2014, 05:09:56 PM by AbruptSLR »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #56 on: February 22, 2014, 01:08:59 PM »
The linked earth wind map of the current surface winds shows the equatorial westerlies currently (Feb 22 2014) in the Western Pacific:


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-183.30,7.72,303





deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #57 on: February 22, 2014, 02:39:18 PM »
I believe that low in the North Pacific corresponds with the Aleutians low. The CCW winds it forces is associated with warm phase PDO, which favors El Niño generally. At 969 mb, that's quite a strong low.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #58 on: February 22, 2014, 05:03:37 PM »
deep octopus,

The reason that I cited the 969 mb low between 40N & 50N at 150W (which likely corresponds to the Aleutians low), is because Dr Ventrice's article includes the attached image of Super Typhoon Isa from April 12 to 24 1997, and the following statement:

"The kicker for a full blown 1997-like Super El Niño to develop would likely be some additional assistance from the development of early-season Pacific tropical cyclones near the Equator, as the GFS model is starting to hint at south of the Equator. Note that the 1997 Super El Niño event had the help from Category 5 Super Typhoon Isa during early April, which developed close enough to the Equator over the Central Pacific to produce another significant westerly wind burst there, and continue to push the West Pacific Warm Pool eastward."

If in the next two weeks the 969 mb low, that I showed, were to migrate to the southwest then it could possibly become a typhoon in the same general area as Typhoon Isa was born; and if it were then to continue, for the following two weeks, on a pathway similar to that followed by Super Typhoon Isa; then by late March or early April it might possibly be in position to give the Kelvin wave that you posted as sufficient kick to start a Super El Nino in 2014.

I know that my scenario includes a lot of if's, but if the current strong Kelvin wave doesn't get enough of a kick to push it over the top later this spring; then it should reflect as a Rossby wave; which might then set up a good possibility of a more normal El Nino event by the Nov to Dec 2014 timeframe.

Best,
ASLR

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #59 on: February 22, 2014, 05:32:05 PM »
For what it is worth, the scenario that I just posted about the 969 mb low possibly turning into a typhoon and then giving a final kick to the current strong Kelvin wave by April 2014; assumes that at least the trade winds do not strengthen in the meantime (or possibly that the equatorial westerlies in Western Pacific continue and/or extend to the Central Pacific); however, the attached figure from Dr Ventrice's article indicates that at least the European seasonal Nino3.4 forecast gives close to a 50% chance that the Nino3.4 will move above a +0.5 index value sometime in April 2014.  Thus it seems plausible that the Kelvin wave may continue receiving strong positive input until the postulated typhoon might (or might not) arrive to give it a final kick:

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #60 on: February 22, 2014, 07:58:55 PM »
The attached NOAA forecast for North Pacific surface pressures until Feb 26 2014; indicates that the low pressure system that I previously called the 969 mb system, is tracking northwest, rather than southwest, and thus cannot be the starting point of a new typhoon.  Therefore, if a typhoon is going to form in the North Pacific in time, and in a position, to apply a westerly wind burst to the power Kelvin wave by late March to early April, then it will need to come from some future low pressure system, probably formed south of 40N and west of the international date line:

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #61 on: February 23, 2014, 01:36:26 AM »
ASLR,

Thanks, very interesting explanation that I had not thought too deeply about previously. Yeah, it sounds like a perfectly reasonable effect of early season typhoons or low pressure systems in general. Weather may boost the chances of an El Niño, which would make some sense, given that these phenomena are inherent examples of what happens when "tipping points" are reached. In this case, the strength of the downwelling Kelvin waves may be beginning to overpower upwelling phases.

Dr. Ventrice has actually perfectly nailed the situation in the western Pacific. Granted, he suggests another "burst" of westerlies beginning February 18th through the 28th, but the data from Feb 17-20 are enough to show just how strong the current westerly burst is.

Compare, for instance, the westerly burst at the end of January...


To this (ongoing) one in mid-February. Up to 13 meters/second over a 4-day average is betraying the trending weakness of the trades in the west. The lows he cites as forming just south and north of the equator are sure to kick over some extra power into the downwelling phases. Maybe, even, the next upwelling cool phase will be muted. That would enhance the positive feedback we would expect to see as pointing to an El Niño.


On that basis, I will be especially interested in next Monday's weekly ENSO update from NOAA.

bligh8

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #62 on: February 23, 2014, 04:07:06 AM »
doi:10.1038/nature08316; Received 29 December 2008; Accepted 21 July 2009

"El Niño has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Niño has become more common during the late twentieth century, in which warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific are flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs. This type of El Niño, termed the central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño; also termed the dateline El Niño2, El Niño Modoki3 or warm pool El Niño5), differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) in both the location of maximum SST anomalies and tropical–midlatitude teleconnections."

I quoted the above from the Nature article.

There is a warm pool of water, several hundred miles wide forming around 124 deg west on the Equator I've been watching.

Having transited the Panama Canal into the South Pacific in 1999 several months after the end of 97/98 el-nino, I encountered light/fluky trade winds up to 8deg south where they steadied up to 12 to 15 kts. My passage to the Galapagos, then the Marquises encompassed near perfect sailing conditions, punctuated with the occasional squall.

I did however meet up with some folks on Christmas Island, India Ocean, who made the passage from the Galapagos(91degW on the Equator)to Fatu Hiva, Marquesas(9degSx138degW,)around 3200 miles, in April/may of 98. They described their passage as a horrible event, encountering 17 gales from a North West direction during their passage. A sailors gale might be described as winds to 45kts(51mph).

Those type of conditions would drive a tremendous amount of water in a South East direction. An open Ocean gale is an event that's not fully appreciated until your out there in it.

I fear for the Ice.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #63 on: February 23, 2014, 04:45:12 AM »
bligh8,

Your comment that you fear for the ice, reminded me to look at the earth wind map of surface winds around Antarctica.  As you can see from the attached image from Feb 22 2014, the combination of atmospheric pressure systems are serving to blow wind directly in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (see the Antarctic folder for guidance on locations and significance, here: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,13.0.html); which will drag more warm Circumpolar Deep Water, CDW, into contact with the sensitivity marine glaciers (eg the Pine Ice Glacier, etc), which will accelerate ice mass loss from the grounded ice sheet/glaciers.  It is possible that the weather patterns in the South Pacific associated with the Kelvin wave are already influencing the weather patterns in the Southern Ocean.

Best,
ASLR

bligh8

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #64 on: February 23, 2014, 06:54:49 AM »
ASLR,

First...Thank You for all your hard work here. Your level of integrity and passion is expressed in all your work.

I to believe, based on what I've seen here and the provided links that the WAIS, pine isl & tg will be largely effected maybe in a profound way, by the coming El-Nino.

Best.
Bligh

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #65 on: February 23, 2014, 03:12:18 PM »
I thought that some people would like to see the earth wind map for Feb 23 2014, rotated so as to focus on the South Pacific.  This map shows that: (a) the pattern of the trade winds in the South Pacific are significantly different from that in the North Pacific; (b) the equatorial westerly winds in the West Pacific appear to be continuing to deflect towards the southeast (possibly effecting the Kelvin wave in the SH more than in the NH); and (c) the current wind circulation patterns are continuing today to blow directly in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE.

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #66 on: February 23, 2014, 05:11:30 PM »
ASLR, Ditto what bligh8 said, thanks for your work.
  Here is a graphic on Kelvin and Rosby Wave propagation...

http://oxbow.sr.unh.edu/WaveMovies/

 Site is fun to play with , pick a spot, initiate a surface bulge and watch it move west . The graphic also helps me to visualize how Rosby Waves work. Interesting also how Kelvin Waves are different in the northern and southern hemisphere.
 Question? Does a low pressure create a bulge and a high pressure create a depression and does a surface depression also move west like a surface bulge?
 
bligh8, I have a good friend who is planning on leaving Hawaii on a trip to the Marquesas in April.
They are sailing on a catamaran that I would call a day sailor. Sounds like the prospects of and El Nino may make their journey rather perilous.     

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #67 on: February 23, 2014, 05:33:31 PM »
Bruce,

Thanks for the interesting/educational movies about Kelvin and Rossby waves.

In response to your question (noting that I am a civil/marine engineer and not an oceanographer); yes a low atmospheric pressure system creates a bulge in the ocean surface, while a high pressure system creates a depression.  However, how a bulge moves compared to a depression, is a bit out of my expertise as I believe that the answer depends on many different factors including: (a) whether the bulge or depression acts as a soliton (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soliton ); (b) the influence of wind shear on the ocean surface; (c) the local bathymetry and boundary conditions; etc (tides, salinity and temperature gradients).

Best,
ASLR

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #68 on: February 23, 2014, 06:01:24 PM »
As this is the Consequences folder, I thought that I would post the accompanying four images of the typical wetting/drying effects of El Nino and La Nina events, from the following website(s):

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/ENSO.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#current

The first two images (for winter and summer, respectively) for typical El Nino events indicate that on a global average basis, it is wetter over the ocean and drier over the land in El Nino events; which can temporarily increase sea levels to an extent depending on the intensity and duration of the El Nino event.

The third and fourth images (for winter and summer respectively) for typical La Nina events indicate that on a global average basis, it is wetter over land and drier of the ocean in La Nina events; which can temporarily decrease sea levels to an extent depending on the intensity and duration of the La Nina event.

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #69 on: February 23, 2014, 07:31:50 PM »
ASLR,   Are there no typical wetting/drying effects in the Arctic or Antarctic with El Nino / La Nina?
Some short sight I suppose because intensification of onshore winds in the Amundsen Sea would also change humidity I would think ?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #70 on: February 23, 2014, 07:41:23 PM »
Bruce,

I was thinking the same thing.  Many agencies, and authors, do not emphasize changes in the Arctic and Antarctic, both as it is difficult to get data to calibrate to, and because the models typically show more errors in these critical areas; as we saw this very clearly with the Cowtan & Way 2013 paper showing the old global warming numbers were too low without including measurements from places difficult to measure.  I believe that we are in for some more surprises as we more in to a positive PDO phase.

Best,
ASLR

P.S.: I am traveling for the next few days.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #71 on: February 23, 2014, 08:39:28 PM »
Bruce, ASLR, yes, as far as I know the southern polar front keeps most of the effects of el Nino out of Antarctica, at most I think there should be some increase in precipitation after the Nino peak has topped, but while it's developing the effects stay mostly within tropics and temperate regions. In Arctic the situation is not so clear since el Nino effects can't get there directly because of the Rocky Mountains (a bit of guessing going on here) but what it does do is to warm up the Atlantic warm pool in the Mexican Gulf/Caribbean and the currents bring the warmth also to the Arctic, though delayed from the peak. Should this develop this year the effects on Arctic could be visible earliest in the late winter 2015 (a bit more guessing), though a more direct effect may be possible via the North Pacific currents (presuming they reorganize a bit during el Nino).

(a lot of guess work going on in this image):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-diyEYKzfIPY/TZsaNMNpAZI/AAAAAAAAAD0/yWEoPjAOFXA/s1600/ElNinotWarmSpellsEnergyFlow.PNG
"I think you might want to take a closer look on that, and then, you should take x3/2!"

bligh8

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #72 on: February 23, 2014, 11:28:43 PM »

bligh8, I have a good friend who is planning on leaving Hawaii on a trip to the Marquesas in April.
They are sailing on a catamaran that I would call a day sailor. Sounds like the prospects of and El Nino may make their journey rather perilous.   

Hey Bruce....

If memory serves...you posted a few pic's of your farm and web site....really nice job!! 
My Grandfather had a farm that I visited in the mid fifty's as a child near Vista, CA. twas a beautiful place back then. Orange and avocado trees...he paid me 1/2 cent per Japanese beetle that I brought back to house in a very large jar.  No-matter the damn bugs killed every tree he had.

About your friend who is planning a sail. From your description of the vessel and what he is planning .. that is not a good idea. Although April would be the right time, thus avoiding the tropical storm season, open Ocean long distant sailing is no game for a small cat.

If by April it looks like an EL-Nino.. he should not do this at all.

Perhaps he is an experienced open ocean sailor, if so, the following is unnecessary.  If he is going to do this, ask  him to check in periodically with "Noonsite.com" for other sailors making that transit. In sailing that distant he should have nothing less than a SSB radio and a  GPSEPRIB.  With a SSB he'll be able to get WWHV Hawaii @  2.5, 5, 10, and 15 MHZ @ 48-51 minutes past the hour, for Pacific highseas warnings. I'm sure WWHV also broadcast voice weather info other than warnings. He would have to check for times and frequencies.

Again, congrats with the farm.

Best,
Bligh

PS...the starfish are really taking a beating.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #73 on: February 24, 2014, 12:03:14 AM »
While waiting for the plane to board, I thought that I would make the following post:

Pmt111500,
The interactions of ENSO events and Antarctica are more complicated that previously assumed.  As one example or this relationship the following abstract from Clem & Fogt (2013/2014) which discusses the telecommunication of energy from the tropical Pacific to Western, and Peninsular, Antarctica.  However, with regard to wetting an drying, I agree that an El Nino event may increase snowfall in Antarctic [which with some time would likely increase the ice flow rates of key West Antarctic glaciers due to the increased gravitational driving force associated with snowfall in the highlands and limited snow accumulation on the coasts (due to the warm ocean water and wind scour)]:

Clem, K. R., and R. L. Fogt, 2014:  "Varying roles of ENSO and SAM on the Antarctic Peninsula Climate".  J. Geophys. Res, in press.


Abstract: "Recent analysis has suggested that the warming trends in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula are primarily of tropical origin, through atmospheric teleconnections. There is a strong seasonality to these connections, and the relationship also varies in space in time. Here, connections with tropical (specifically, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and hemispheric circulation patterns (specifically, the Southern Annular Mode, SAM) are contrasted across the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. We note that during austral winter and spring, ENSO has a persistent relationship across the western Antarctic Peninsula temperatures, while SAM has a persistent relationship with temperatures across the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula. Meanwhile, the ENSO relationship with temperatures across the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula, and the SAM relationship with temperatures along the western Peninsula vary in time, especially in austral spring. In contrast, the relationship of these two climate patterns and temperatures across West Antarctica is more complicated and less persistent. Using the newly reconstructed Byrd temperature time series, we find significant relationships with SAM and temperatures across West Antarctica, but only in certain seasons. The ENSO relationship is weaker and statistically insignificant and varies in time and season as a function of the location and magnitude of the teleconnection to the South Pacific. Together, these results suggest that linking the warming across both the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica to either changes in ENSO or SAM requires careful consideration of temporal and spatial variations in the atmospheric response in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas associated with these patterns."

wili

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #74 on: February 24, 2014, 08:05:58 PM »
Happy travels, ASLR.

Meanwhile, the latest weekly NOAA forecast is out:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

p26 :
models predict either ENSO-neutral or El Niño (greater or equal to+0.5ºC) during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014


p.27:
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts ENSO-neutral through the N.H. spring 2014 followed by El Niño starting in June-August (JJA) 2014


But still hot and dry in CA and through much of the SW and S through May (p. 28).

See relevant pages for related graphs and maps.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #75 on: February 25, 2014, 03:04:50 PM »
The attached NOAA forecast, valid to Feb 28 2014, of the surface conditions for the North Pacific, shows that there will likely be a new hurricane level system developing just east of the international date line and just north of 40N.  A system in this location has the potential to move westward (to become a typhoon), and if it does it would then likely move southward towards the equator where it might give the Kelvin wave a good kick sometime in mid-March.  It will be interesting to see which direction this 964 mb system moves.

Actually, looking at the forecast given here:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml

it looks like this 964 mb system is moving due eastward, thus unless it heads southeast soon it may never make it down towards the equator (we may have a better idea tomorrow).
« Last Edit: February 25, 2014, 03:14:16 PM by AbruptSLR »

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #76 on: February 25, 2014, 03:24:19 PM »
It does look like this system has the potential for delivering welcome rainfall to the U.S. Southwest.

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #77 on: February 25, 2014, 04:17:27 PM »
Well, I tend to not think that this type of low pressure system that far north (at 40 N) will have any impact on the Kelvin wave activity. The tendency for northern Pacific typhoons is to develop in the doldrums around 0-10 N, track west, and then northwest as it approaches the western Pacific, due to Coriolis forces. Systems to the north as this one are going to be influenced by the wind shears created by the "permanent" North Pacific high pressure and the Aleutian low. This would more likely keep the system well north, spinning in the North Pacific, and probably fading out somewhere over North America or north Asia.

I think the thing that made Typhoon Isa interesting and likely influential on El Niño was that it formed just west of the Niño 3.4 region, around 10 N, such that the CCW rotation of the storm was ideally positioned to shear winds to the east along its backside. Those westerly winds created by Isa would have been well-positioned close enough to the equator to drive up warm Kelvin wave activity.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #78 on: February 25, 2014, 08:22:05 PM »
deep octopus,

I agree that what I called the 964 mb low system will most likely move north, and that I am most likely being overly alarmist at the moment. Nevertheless, if you will look again at the first attached image about Typhoon Isa, it first became a typhoon around 165E & 38N and then intensified as it migrated southwest, and when it finally got down to about 10N it start reinforcing the Kelvin wave.   I suspect that the NOAA 96hr forecast is not so accurate, so I attached the second image of NOAA's 48-hr forecast that is valid to Feb 27 2014, which shows this low pressure system at 952 mb, centered near 178E and 43W and headed southwest.

Again most likely this now 952 mb system will probably turn from a southeast heading to an east heading, where as Share Humanity notes that it could bring more water to California; however, it is also conceivable that the 952 mb system will continue heading southwest, where it might interact with the trade winds to turn to the south and then to the southwest, where it then might follow a path similar to Typhoon Isa.  I know that this is path is not the most likely, but then again the "permanent" Pacific blocking high is now gone, and we do not know what influence the Kelvin wave is temporarily having on the storm tracks in the Central North Pacific over the next coming weeks.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #79 on: February 25, 2014, 10:18:32 PM »
deep octopus,

I now realize that I was reading the storm track for Typhoon Isa backwards, as Isa clearly formed around 10N circa April 12 and then moved northwest, then northeast, and died around 38N around April 24.  This makes the scenario that I postulated about the 952 mb low pressure system track as being even less likely than I previously imagined.  Therefore unless some fluke happens, we may need to wait until the March -April timeframe to see whether any typhoons form around 10N.

Sorry for the confusion,
ASLR

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #80 on: February 26, 2014, 03:21:25 PM »
Yesterday, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issues the following ENSO update:

"Pacific Ocean expected to warm
Issued on Tuesday 25 February 2014
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely in the coming months, with international climate models surveyed by the Bureau showing Pacific Ocean temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds in the austral winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, and hence should be used cautiously in isolation.
Recent observations add weight to the model outlooks. The tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the ocean surface in the coming months. A strong burst of westerly wind occurring now over the far western tropical Pacific, may cause further warming of the subsurface in the coming weeks.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April. Current model outlooks suggest neutral IOD conditions for late autumn into early winter. The risk of a positive IOD event occurring is elevated during El Niño events."


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


wili

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #81 on: February 26, 2014, 08:30:17 PM »
Good catch (as always), ASLR.

So can we start talking now in earnest about what the likely consequences of an El Nino, or even a Super El Nino, over the coming months/next couple years will mean for weather events around the world, and in particular for ice loss in the Arctic?

Specifically, is this the push that will give us the predicted (just by curve fitting) virtually (less than a million square k) ice free Arctic Ocean by 2016, maybe even 2015?? Surely not this year though?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #82 on: February 27, 2014, 02:07:08 AM »
wili,

If we have a Super El Nino like the 1997-1998 event then mean global sea level could increase by up to 15mm in one year, as indicated by the attached historical image.

The caption for the image is:

"Global Mean Sea Level (MSL, blue line) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST, red dotted line) from early 1993 to mid-1998. In 1997 there was a rise of 15 mm at the start of the largest El Nino of the 20th century. The meteorological effects of El Niño 1997-1998 were felt worldwide, but it also contributed to variations in mean sea level. Indeed, sea level anomalies measured by Topex/Poseidon were over 20 centimeters in the equatorial Pacific when the phenomenon was at its height (and as much as 30 centimeters off the coast of Peru). These anomalies obviously had an effect on the global mean of sea levels"

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #83 on: February 27, 2014, 04:12:13 AM »
An obvious consequence of an El Niño (particularly a strong one) will be that 2014 will be the hottest year on the major temperature records, globally, and 2015 more so. Therefore, we should have a very clear break out from the "hiatus" as it were (though I've generally thought the term "hiatus" to always be a visual illusion rather than a statistical fact—higher coverage records like NASA and Cowtan & Way tend to show faster warming trends than NOAA or HadCRUT4.) Even without El Niño, 2014 stands a reasonably good chance of beating 2005/2010 as the hottest year anyway. An unexpected La Niña or volcano would be the only realistic variables I foresee really changing those odds.

But a positive consequence of El Niño will be the reversal of the western United States' crippling drought. More negative ones would include severe droughts in south Asia; flooding in Africa, North America, and South America; outbreaks of dengue fever, malaria, West Nile, and cholera; famine; heat waves emerging globally. Very extreme weather in the context of the loaded dice of climate change could be very volatile. I'm not sanguine. And as ASLR has pointed out, we'll have sea level rise, which will worsen coastal flooding amid storm surges. The hottest year on record is going to act like one.

The Arctic may or may not see much impact. Taking a couple examples of the most severe El Niños in recent history: Looking at volume and extent data, September sea ice volume increased in 1983 from 1982 after the 1982-1983 super El Niño, while extent was static over those two years. During the 1997-1998 super El Niño, both volume and extent did fall from 1997 to 1998, but not in any remarkable ways. We have conversely seen a few La Niña years that were very bad for Arctic sea ice, such as 2012.

The subtropical jetstream will tend to track to the south, bringing moisture along the southern United States. Warmer temperature anomalies will track to the northern half of North America during the northern hemisphere's cold season (November through April), which is also the peak time of El Niño's oceanic-atmospheric teleconnection. Usually, by May, El Niño events end and their impact on the atmosphere wanes by mid-summer.



Continuing to chip in to the volume of data for this year: Subsurface temperatures along the equator still yet continue to expand. This Kelvin Wave is menacing. One can see the surface warmth beginning to show up along the international dateline.

« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 04:30:01 AM by deep octopus »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #84 on: February 27, 2014, 03:16:10 PM »
deep octopus,

That was a very nice post that you just made, and I agree with all of you points.  Your last figure of the Kelvin wave is indeed menacing, and maybe the current westerlies in the Western Pacific will provide all the extra support that it needs to create El Nino conditions as soon as June 2014.

For historical interest I post the attached figure of Mean Global SST, North Atlantic SST and the AMO index from circa 1870 to 2008, and if you look at the 1997 to 1998 annual data line you will see a short-term spike in those years for both Mean Global SST and North Atlantic SST, but that the short-term spike in the AMO in 1997 to 1998 is comparatively smaller.  As the annual Arctic Sea Ice extent is dominated by atmospheric effects (and not as quickly to the North Atlantic SST), this implies that any El Nino in 2014 will have a modest affect on this years minimum Arctic SIE.

However, as a side note about consequences of an El Nino event, the following link to a Mother Jones article indicates that research from the United States shows that when atmospheric temperatures increase, so does crime.  So if we get a Super El Nino, you may want to lock your door:

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/02/climate-change-murder-rape

Best,
ASLR

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #85 on: February 27, 2014, 03:28:41 PM »
The following linked reference by Fyfe & Gillett concludes:  “In conclusion, we agree with Kosaka and Xie that accounting for cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific could, in principle, reconcile recent observed and simulated global warming. However, based on the CMIP5 ensemble of climate simulations, the probability of simulating the recently observed eastern tropical Pacific cooling with a freely running climate model under the CMIP5 radiative forcing protocol is very low, and hence so too is the probability of simulating the observed global temperature change over the past 20 years.” (see the citation for Kosaka & Xie at the end of this post). 

This implies that in order for GCMs to try to model hiatus periods they must break with the CMIP5 protocols; which in turn implies that the probable impacts of the likely next 15-years of positive PDOs (with more frequent El Nino events) will not be included in the near future CMIP projections, and thus policy makers will not need to consider these consequences, if they do not wish to, as the process-based scientific methodology is not yet adequate to definitively resolves such issues, so we are left with the uncertainties of the "fat-tailed" PDF, particularly with regard to the possibility that some strong El Nino event might trip some positive feedback mechanism past some tipping point (eg.: (1) a temporary acceleration of permafrost decomposition might release sufficient GHG to accelerate polar amplification that could feedback on more permafrost decomposition, and (2) as I have previously stated the Amundsen Bellingshausen Sea Low, ABSL, is persistent from Sept to Feb, so if we have an El Nino in that period, then the associate winds could drive warm Circumpolar Deep Water, CDW, into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE; which might trip the adjoining marine glaciers into higher rates of ice mass loss, and associated higher rates of sea level rise, SLR, which may stay higher even after the El Nino event is finished):

“Recent observed and simulated warming” by John C. Fyfe & Nathan P. Gillett published in Nature Climate Change 4, 150–151 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2111 Published online 26 February 2014

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/full/nclimate2111.html


“Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling” by Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie published in Nature 501, 403–407 (19 September 2013) doi:10.1038/nature12534
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 04:40:34 PM by AbruptSLR »

JimD

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #86 on: February 27, 2014, 04:44:33 PM »
ASLR

This implies that in order for GCMs to try to model hiatus periods they must break with the CMIP5 protocols; which in turn implies that the probable impacts of the likely next 15-years of positive PDOs (with more frequent El Nino events) will not be included in the near future CMIP projections,

Re the PDO comment.  What is this comment based upon?  Is it the fact that the PDO has been negative for a long time (on average) and that the probability is that the next 15 years will therefore average positive?  Or is there some modeled/paleo data which indicates that we are likely to be in positive territory for that time?

Txs
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #87 on: February 27, 2014, 05:14:13 PM »
JimD,

The statement is based on the statistical/historical findings (I cite the reference in the Antarctic "Forcing" thread) that on average PDO trend negative for 15-years (say from 1999 to 2014), and then positive for 15-years (say from late 2014 to late 2029); however, there are meaningful variations from the average trend periods.  Currently, following CMIP procedures it is not possible to project hiatus periods; however, researchers such as Kosaka & Xie (2013) have departed from CMIP procedures in order to "force" their models to simulate hiatus periods; however, policy makers that use process-based projections then ignore such "forced" model findings (eg the Kosaka & Xie 2013 findings).

Best,
ASLR

P.S.:  I looked up the reference for the 15-year PDO period, which came from:

Meehl, Gerald A., Aixue Hu, Julie M. Arblaster, John Fasullo, Kevin E. Trenberth, 2013: Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. J. Climate, 26, 7298–7310. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #88 on: February 27, 2014, 08:31:54 PM »
Not to sound overly concerned, but following deep octopus' advice, I looked at the Western Pacific Tropical storm risks at:

http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/

The first attached image from cyclocane shows that around 150E and 10N there is a good chance of a tropical cyclone here (and also near 160E and 10S) by March 1 2014.  The second image from NOAA shows that by March 3 2014 this Northern Hemisphere system has turned into a tropical cyclone around 150E and 20N (and headed Northwest like Typhoon Isa did).  Depending on the size of this storm, it would seem that this event could provide a kick to the Kelvin wave from strengthened westerlies out near 150E (thus increasing a chance for a Super El Nino by the end of 2014).
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 11:57:09 PM by AbruptSLR »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #89 on: February 27, 2014, 08:47:42 PM »
If it weren't for the NOAA forecast for March 3 2014, showing a cyclone need 150E and 20N, I would not bother to post this earth wind map of the Pacific for Feb 27 2014 showing circulation pattern near 148E and 7N, that might turn into a cyclone (or Typhoon),  I guess we will know in a few days:
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 11:55:04 PM by AbruptSLR »

ritter

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #90 on: February 27, 2014, 10:59:52 PM »
If it weren't for the NOAA forecast for March 3 2014, showing a cyclone need 150E and 20N, I would not bother to post this earth wind map of the Pacific for Feb 27 2014 showing circulation pattern need 148E and 7N, that might turn into a cyclone (or Typhoon),  I guess we will know in a few days:

Pardon my ignorance, but isn't this a peculiar time and place for such an event?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #91 on: February 27, 2014, 11:25:41 PM »

ritter,

In response to your question I post the following information about the formation period for Super Typhoon Isa, from Wikipedia (see the link at the end of the post):


"Typhoon Isa was the first of eleven super-typhoons to occur during the 1997 Pacific typhoon season. The second tropical cyclone of the season, Isa developed from a disturbance in the monsoon trough near the Caroline Islands on April 12. It moved erratically at first, though after attaining tropical storm status it curved westward due to the subtropical ridge to its north. Isa very gradually intensified, and on April 20 the typhoon reached peak 1-min winds of 270 km/h (165 mph), as reported by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center; Japan Meteorological Agency reported maximum 10-min winds of 155 km/h (100 mph). After turning northward, it accelerated to the northeast, and merged with a larger extratropical cyclone on April 24."

"In early April, the monsoon trough established itself across Micronesia near the equator. An area of convection within the trough developed in the Caroline Islands on April 9, and resembled the characteristics of a monsoon depression. Shortly thereafter, a large, yet weak low-level circulation formed within the system. The system drifted erratically for several days as it slowly organized; the system underwent several cycles of developing and losing convection. On April 11, the system maintained a persistent area of well-organized deep convection, and subsequent to an increase in upper-level outflow, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) classified the system as Tropical Depression 02W at 1800 UTC on April 11. Strong influence from the monsoonal westerlies left the depression drifting and slowly executing a loop to the northwest. Based on sufficient satellite classifications, JTWC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Isa early on April 12 while it was located 105 km (65 mi) of Pohnpei. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) simultaneously classified the system as a tropical depression, and upgraded it to a tropical storm early on April 13.
With the subtropical ridge to its north, Isa tracked to the north and gradually curved to the west. It slowly intensified, due to it being a large tropical cyclone, and late on April 13 JTWC upgraded the storm to typhoon status; at the same time, JMA continued to assess Isa as a minimal tropical storm, and did not upgrade it to a typhoon until April 16. Isa maintained a nearly due-westward movement, although tropical cyclone prediction models anticipated a quick turn to the north. The JTWC recognized the northward model bias, which was described as under-analyzing the strength of the subtropical ridge. By April 16, the typhoon attained the equivalence of a Category 3 tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and despite a potential threat to Guam the typhoon remained 260 km (160 mi) south of the island. It gradually curved to the north, and on April 20 JTWC classified Super Typhoon Isa as reaching peak 1-min winds of 270 km/h (165 mph). At this point, Isa became an annular typhoon, with a large eye and a lack of spiralform rainbands, while moving nearly due northward, through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Simultaneously, JMA assessed the typhoon as attaining peak 10-min winds of 155 km/h (100 mph).
Shortly after peaking in intensity, Isa began to weaken, and by April 21 it dropped below "super typhoon" status. It accelerated to the northeast under the flow of the mid-latitudes, and the typhoon weakened more rapidly; JMA downgraded Isa to a tropical storm on April 22, which was followed suit by the JTWC the next day as upper-level wind shear increased. At 0600 UTC on April 23, the JTWC issued the last advisory on the system, and the next day JMA classified Isa dissipated as it became absorbed by a cloud band from a large extratropical cyclone to the east of Japan."

The key is that I believe the monsoon trough has already been established in this area.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Isa


Best,
ASLR

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #92 on: February 27, 2014, 11:41:39 PM »
ritter,

As a follow-up to my last post, I provide the following information (and link) from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, from Feb 24 2014, stating that a monsoon trough has been established from north of Australia to the central tropical Pacific, and that the MJO has recently gained strength in the Western Pacific:

"Issued on Tuesday 25 February 2014

Madden-Julian Oscillation over the western Pacific

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently gained strength over the western Pacific Ocean. The past week has seen enhanced convection over the Solomon Islands and an active monsoon trough that extends from northern Australia into the central tropical Pacific. A weak trough extends across the Indian Ocean, although convection along the trough has been suppressed, as is usual when the MJO moves into the western tropical Pacific.

There is some uncertainty in model forecasts as the MJO moves towards the western hemisphere this week. Some models predict a weakening of the signal, while others maintain its strength. When the MJO signal is strong in the western Pacific and western hemisphere it can increase the risk of tropical cyclone formation in the South Pacific. It can also reduce the likelihood of large-scale monsoonal activity across the tropical Indian Ocean, the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. When the MJO weakens it has less influence on topical weather."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

ritter

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #93 on: February 27, 2014, 11:58:56 PM »
Thanks, ASLR.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #94 on: February 28, 2014, 12:42:09 AM »
Your more than welcome ritter:

The following update from cyclocane (see link at end of post) increases the risk of occurrence of tropical cyclones in the two areas (one in the Northwest Pacific and one in the South Pacific) indicated in the attached image as High:


"Northwest Pacific Ocean
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N
148.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 147.4E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAGGED AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 03 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INTENSIFY THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WITH WIDELY SPREAD
TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 270530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

South Pacific Ocean
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
178.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271718Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED SYSTEM DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING FAIRLY BROKEN. THE RADAR LOOP FROM LABASA, FIJI, IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED AS THE
ISLANDS SEEM TO BE DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD FROM THE ISLANDS OF FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW
272100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH."


http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #95 on: February 28, 2014, 01:46:55 AM »
Hopefully, when you click on the following link, it will take you to a 7-day loop of the GFS forecast for the Western Pacific; which very clearly shows that the projected cyclones that I have been discussing will occur within the next 7-days and when they do, the loop clearly shows that the westerlies will be strengthened and consequently the Kelvin wave should receive a strong kick, which should substantially increase the likelihood of a Super El Nino by the end of this year.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/maps/vort/westpac.html

Remember to click on the Fwd bottom to get the 7-day forecast loop to run!
« Last Edit: February 28, 2014, 02:04:51 AM by AbruptSLR »

icefest

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #96 on: February 28, 2014, 09:48:00 AM »
I can't help but think that the climate change deniers in the governments of the United States and Australia are failing us all by continuously cutting funding to research that would allow continued maintenance and improvements of the buoys. It's also a threat to people's well-being to limit this kind of information. El Niño and La Niña can be vicious to agriculture and have knowingly led to famines, particularly in the 19th and early 20th centuries when they arrived without warning. And it's costly. Talk about penny-wise, pound-foolish.

I suspect that it will stay that way for as long as Tony Abbot stays on as head of the government. The combination of idealisation of small government and scientific disbelief is hardly conducive to research funding.

I can just hope that the developing El Nino will not cause too much damage.
Open other end.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #97 on: February 28, 2014, 03:34:58 PM »
The following evidence seems sufficient to me to indicate that we will likely transition to an official El Nino condition by early May 2014, which would markedly raise the prospect of a Super El Nino (possibly more severe that the 1997-1998 event).

The first image and the following storm status report for Feb 28 2014 (from Cyclocane) indicate that at the minimum we currently have two Tropical Depressions, TDs, but by now we probably have one TD in the NH and one Tropical Cyclone, TC, in the SH:

"Northwest Pacific Ocean
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 280000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 147.0E, APPROXIMATELY 308 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN
AFB, GUAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Pacific Ocean
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
178.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271718Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED SYSTEM DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING FAIRLY BROKEN. THE RADAR LOOP FROM LABASA, FIJI, IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED AS THE
ISLANDS SEEM TO BE DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD FROM THE ISLANDS OF FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//"

The second image is also from Cyclocane, and it confirms that both of these tropical disturbances will become Tropical Cyclones by the end of today.

The third image from earth wind map shows that we can see both of these TC's (or TDs) now.

The fourth image from the Albany University GFS modeled Vorticity for today (Feb 28 2014) shows that these two TCs (or TDs) are already contributing significantly to a Westerlies Wind Burst, WWB, that is currently kicking the Kelvin wave into a strengthened condition.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #98 on: February 28, 2014, 04:05:15 PM »
Regarding the prospect of a Super El Nino (given a high likelihood of an official El Nino by May 2014, see prior post) in 2014 (into the Spring of 2015), I offer the following:

(A) It appears that conditions are more conducive now for a Super El Nino that in either the 1982-1983, or the 1997-1998 events for reasons including: (a) There is more ocean heat content in the Pacific now than in either prior events; (b) El Nino conditions seem likely to occur earlier in the season than in either of the prior two events; (c) the current Kelvin wave shown by deep octopus is stronger than in either of the prior two events; and (d) the  madden julian oscillation, MJO, which is currently strong in the Western Pacific is likely to remain strong as it moves eastward (the first attached image from Wikipedia shows how MJOs form and move eastward once the high pressure system over the north central Pacific breaks down [hopefully bringing more rain to California via a Pineapple Express], and the following quote from Wikipedia discusses how the eastward migration of a strong MJO wave can accelerate and strengthen an El Nino event):


Quote from Wikipedia: "There is strong year-to-year (interannual) variability in MJO activity, with long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent. This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In the Pacific, strong MJO activity is often observed 6 – 12 months prior to the onset of an El Niño episode, but is virtually absent during the maxima of some El Niño episodes, while MJO activity is typically greater during a La Niña episode. Strong events in the Madden–Julian oscillation over a series of months in the western Pacific can speed the development of an El Niño or La Niña but usually do not in themselves lead to the onset of a warm or cold ENSO event. However, observations suggest that the 1982-1983 El Niño developed rapidly during July 1982 in direct response to a Kelvin wave triggered by an MJO event during late May. Further, changes in the structure of the MJO with the seasonal cycle and ENSO might facilitate more substantial impacts of the MJO on ENSO. For example, the surface westerly winds associated with active MJO convection are stronger during advancement toward El Niño and the surface easterly winds associated with the suppressed convective phase are stronger during advancement toward La Nina.  Globally, the inter annual variability of the MJO is most determined by atmospheric internal dynamics."


The second image from the Albany University shows the modeled Voticity forecast (issued on Feb 28) for March 4 2014, shows the development of a new TC in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and the extension of the westerlies into the eastern Pacific Ocean (indicating a potential breakdown of the tradewinds in this area).

Lastly, in 1997 there were eleven Super Typhoon events (beginning with Isa), so while there are no Super Typhoons in the current forecast, the current forecast only extends at most to March 6 2014.  Therefore, with all the heat that is in the Pacific Ocean there is plenty of more time for Super Typhoons to form in 2014, and if/when they do, they will contribute to the strength of the coming El Nino event, possibly pushing its intensity beyond the 1997-1998 event, which was the strongest El Nino during the Anthropocene.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2014, 04:12:30 PM by AbruptSLR »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #99 on: February 28, 2014, 04:30:48 PM »
While forecasts of Tropical Cyclones and of MJOs become less accurate for events further in the future, the Albany University is willing to look up to 7-days in the future, thus:

(a) the first attached image of the forecast Pacific Vorticity for March 6th, shows the likely rain event heading of to California (which is characteristic of a MJO induced Pineapple Express [see my prior post]), and the continued penetration of the westerlies into the eastern Pacific.

(b) the second attached image of the forecast Pacific Vocticity for March 7th shows the westerlies restoring their integrity and further disrupting the trade winds in the eastern Pacific.

If such westerlies continue then the swap of the base state of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system (to an El Nino condition), that Dr. Michael Ventrice mentioned, will be a done deal.