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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #600 on: April 14, 2014, 06:56:36 PM »
For what it is worth, for the single day of April 9 1997 for an unadjusted SSTA (without averaging) the tool that ChasingIce provided gave me the first attached plot.

Edit:
For ease of comparison I provide the same single day of April 9 2014 for an unadjusted SSTA (without averaging) in the second attached image (note the difference of scale in the two images).
« Last Edit: April 14, 2014, 07:10:16 PM by AbruptSLR »
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #601 on: April 14, 2014, 07:54:59 PM »
Here's OSPO anomaly charts, with the same interval scales and continua.





Nino 3.4 index from NOAA also shows April 9, 1997 with +0.2 C, the same as April 9, 2014. I know I'm being pedantic, but in this regard, the difference between the two years is imperceptible to me.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #602 on: April 14, 2014, 07:56:54 PM »
The accompanying two images indicate that on April 14 2014 the leading edge of the CCKW has reached the Date Line.  The first attached image show both the rainfall and the 200-hPa velocity wind potential anomaly; while the second attached image shows the winds at 250-hPa.
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ChasingIce

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #603 on: April 14, 2014, 08:13:00 PM »
ChasingIce,

I believe there is an error in your posted data.

Using the same tool, I got something completely different for 09April1997. I will have to post it when I get home since my work computer will not allow me to post it.

For a sanity, check, TAO data for the month of April 1997:

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97_16.html


Edit: I was able to reproduce your graphs, more or less. It looks like you used a lengthy time mean for both of them (or at least the 1997 graph). You can't do that with 2014 data and make an apples to apples comparison to 1997 data since the mean is t+x steps into the future from the date chosen (t); not t-x (into the past from the date chosen). There isn't any future data to roll into the mean for 2014, so you only get 1 day, whereas there are many time steps into the future averaged together on the April 1997 graph. Also, I believe the time steps used are 7-day intervals, meaning t+30 is actually 30 weeks. In addition, the color scale at the bottom tends to change with each new plot.

the time scale has to be extended for 1997 in order to get the scale at the bottom to be somewhat close.  I was going to go with the default image, but it is simply too hard to correlate the 2 images.  The Eastern SSTA anomaly in 1997 actually started back in February.

ChasingIce

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #604 on: April 14, 2014, 08:15:30 PM »
Here's OSPO anomaly charts, with the same interval scales and continua.





Nino 3.4 index from NOAA also shows April 9, 1997 with +0.2 C, the same as April 9, 2014. I know I'm being pedantic, but in this regard, the difference between the two years is imperceptible to me.

while only looking at 3.4, I tend to agree, however when you look at nino 1+2, the difference is apparent.  There was a large warming pool already piled up on the Coast of South America, and pushing eastward.

ChasingIce

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #605 on: April 14, 2014, 08:20:14 PM »
ChasingIce,

I don't want to sound overly harsh, so I apologize if my last post came off that way. It's good to have a skeptical mind and I appreciate having someone around who will challenge the prevailing POV. After all, that's part of what science is about. I just want to make sure we have the data straight before we bust up what could be a perfectly decent analysis!

fully noted!  I much like this forum, as it the most scientific in nature (and less political). 

As I've stated before, I'm ROOTING for a strong El Nino as that would tend to overcome our current drought conditions in Southern California.  Unfortunately, it will probably have a poor effect on Arctic Ice. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #606 on: April 14, 2014, 08:52:43 PM »
Not to get carried away with comparing our current condition with those of 1997, but as noted earlier in this thread, Super Typhoon Isa occurred from April 12 to April 24 2014; while the accompanying series (in this post & the next) of WunderMap forecasts from April 19 to April 29 indicate the possibility of another typhoon forming along a storm track similar to that of Isa:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #607 on: April 14, 2014, 08:54:08 PM »
Here is the rest of the series from the prior post.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #608 on: April 14, 2014, 08:56:16 PM »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #609 on: April 15, 2014, 12:12:00 AM »


the time scale has to be extended for 1997 in order to get the scale at the bottom to be somewhat close.  I was going to go with the default image, but it is simply too hard to correlate the 2 images.  The Eastern SSTA anomaly in 1997 actually started back in February.

I gotcha. Yeah, I wish there was a way to make that scale static when generating multiple images. It would help comparison considerably. Otherwise it's a pretty nice tool.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #610 on: April 15, 2014, 01:28:27 AM »
I thought that I would post the two attached images from the University of Albany vorticity & wind forecast for April 21 & 22, respectively as the show the potential tropical storm in the Equatorial Western Pacific in roughly the same position as the WunderMap forecast does.  Furthermore, I would like to note that the forecasted storm track for this possible event appears to be coinciding both with the possible arrival of the MJO in the Equatorial Western Pacific, and also with the northern side of a possible monsoon trough that may be forming now north of New Guinea.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #611 on: April 15, 2014, 04:03:00 AM »
The attached image shows the 30-day moving average SOI through April 15 2014 (Sydney time) which continues to become less negative with a value of -4.3.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #612 on: April 15, 2014, 04:47:16 PM »
This is an update of the CCKW / MJO interaction status for April 15 2014:

The first image (from Ventrice) shows the current and forecasted (1 & 2 weeks) convective activity for the CCKW showing that the leading edge that had reached the Date Line yesterday has dissipated while the trailing edge has yet to reach the Date Line.  This image illustrates how the range of the CCKW reaches to the eastern edge of the Maritime Continent.

The second image (also from Ventrice) shows both the precipitation pattern and the 200-hPa velocity potential for the CCKW for today, and this pattern closely matches that of the first image.

The third image shows the earth wind map wind pattern for this morning at 250-hPa showing that the center of the CCKW has now reached the Date Line.
 
The fourth image shows the MJO 90-day record indicating that the MJO is essentially unchanged from yesterday both in location and magnitude (possibly waiting for the heart of the CCKW to pass the Date Line).
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #613 on: April 15, 2014, 05:28:49 PM »
Is it just me or is it really a new WWB starting up in WPAC? Given TAO the wind anomalies have grown more positive in WPAC now.. However, we are waiting for the winds to become more positive around date line to see things really happening..

I have just like you ASLR, noticed that there are some kind of possibility that another TC will form in the beginning of next week. However, this TC isn't seen in ECMWFs forecasts so we'll have to wait and see until the models converge more. It's however interesting to notice that GFS have the aforemented TC stronger in their latest run with a MSLP around 998 hPa at +180 hours... The next run (12z) will be interesting to look at! And so will the ECMWF 12z forecast...

Recalling the SOI, I consider the value of -4,3 as a consequence of the now dissolved powerful cat 4 Ita..

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #614 on: April 15, 2014, 08:14:25 PM »
Lord Vader,

I believe that the first attached image of surface winds from earth wind map show sufficient westerlies in the Equatorial Western Pacific to qualify as a weak WWB, with the CCKW holding the trade winds at bay at the date line.

The second attached image from the University of Albany vorticity & surface wind forecast for April 23 2014 still shows the possibility of a tropical storm in the Equatorial Western Pacific near the time when the MJO may be passing through this area.

Best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #615 on: April 16, 2014, 03:10:26 AM »
While the Long Paddock station daily SOI value was negative for April 15, nevertheless the value exiting the 30-day moving average was even more negative, so the BoM SOI value continued to become less negative with a value of -3.3 for April 16 2014, as shown in the first attached image.

Furthermore, probably due to the CCKW, the equatorial cloudiness is greater than it has been in at least 3 years (see the second attached image).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #616 on: April 16, 2014, 03:26:38 AM »
Getting back to Lord Vader's question about WWB's, the attached image from NCEP/NOAA issued April 15 2014, shows that the 850-hPa Velocity Potential has been as high since the CCKW entered the Western Pacific as it has been at anytime in the past 6 months.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #617 on: April 16, 2014, 03:48:22 AM »
The attached BoM weekly Nino3.4 for the week ending April 13 2014 has a value of +0.32 per the attached image.  This is higher than the NOAA value of +0.2 for the week centered on April 9 2014.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #618 on: April 16, 2014, 12:16:02 PM »
While Cyclocane does not have any Pacific tropical storms in its 48-hr forecast from April 16 2014 (Sydney time), still the first attached image of Cyclocane's tropical storm probability map does identify two candidate areas on the northside of a possible monsoon trough, and the second attached image of the earth surface wind map taken about 12-hrs after the Cyclocane forecast shows that at least one of the candidate area is gaining more definition.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #619 on: April 16, 2014, 12:22:10 PM »
I thought that some would be interested in seeing the other BoM Nino indices for the week ending April 13 2014.  The attached images are for Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, respectively.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #620 on: April 16, 2014, 10:32:50 PM »
Hello everybody!

It's dark outside and I haven't got any egg yet but I do have some interesting views to share with you! After having studied the latest http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh my opinion is that a WWB is gathering strength in the area 170W-160W and that the area just around and right east of the date line with negative anomalies finally may be replaced by more westerly winds.. This should be in accordance with MJO...

When it comes to the possibility of tropical cyclones the odds seems to have gone down somewhat. GFS are still indicating a possible TD or weak TS but that's not as apparent as in earlier runs...

Happy Easter people! :D

//LMV 8)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #621 on: April 17, 2014, 12:03:34 AM »
The first attached image (from NOAA) shows that the MJO is relatively weak, but that it has finally entered the Equatorial Western Pacific (North of New Guinea) in an area where it has gained strength in the past.

The second attached image shows the past & forecast 200-hPa winds (per Kyle MacRitchie), showing that CCKW's power has not been dissipated.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #622 on: April 17, 2014, 02:24:51 AM »
While the Long Paddock station day SOI value was more negative today than yesterday, still the BoM 30-day moving average is less negative for April 17 2014 at a value of -2.4, because the values leaving the moving average was larger than the incoming value.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #623 on: April 17, 2014, 02:35:06 AM »
Cyclocane has just issued the following tropical depression warning in an area close to that predicted by the University of Albany:

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 149.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE, ALBEIT
FRAGMENTED, BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 161022Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT
PREDICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #624 on: April 17, 2014, 02:29:43 PM »
Cycloncane has increased to medium the probability that the tropical depression near 9.5N 149E will transition to a tropical storm within less than 24-hrs.

Furthermore, the first attached image of the University of Albany vorticity & wind 180-hr forecast for April 24 2014, shows that the current tropical depression near 9.5N 149E has intensified and more northeast of the Philippines, and it has been joined by two other tropical disturbances that together form a WWB from  120E to 170E.

Finally, the second attached image from the BoM shows that the MJO RMM index for April 16 2014 has increased (possibly modulated by the current decrease in the CCKW) as it gradually moves eastward (look at the dark blue line).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #625 on: April 17, 2014, 02:36:41 PM »
The attached sea surface temperature anomaly, SSTA, for April 17 2014, indicates to me that the EKW is still slowly surfacing, and most importantly, to me, the EKW seems to have stopped the upwelling need the Galapagos and soon may transmit an new CTW (coastal trapped Kelvin wave) southward to re-disrupt the Humboldt Current.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #626 on: April 17, 2014, 02:42:42 PM »
The attached NOAA subsea temperature profile & anomaly for April 13 2014, shows that the EKW is continuing to surface and should provide favorable conditions for the current MJO to convert the Walker Cell to an El Nino condition if/when the MJO reaches the Date Line sometime between one to two weeks from now.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #627 on: April 17, 2014, 03:48:43 PM »
For those who have trouble seeing the Wheeler & Hendon 90-day version of the MJO RMM chart, I attach NOAA's 40-day version, showing that the MJO has only slightly gained strength.
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Laurent

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #628 on: April 17, 2014, 04:17:05 PM »
Hello AbruptSLR

What you call the date line is the 180° longitude ? or something else ?

Laurent

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #629 on: April 17, 2014, 04:43:54 PM »
Another increase (decreased OLR) in convective activity at the dateline, to the lowest in years, according to BOM. Likely the result of the MJO moving in, compounded with increasing likelihood of El Niño.



Laurent, I believe the "date line" has been used here (or at least as I've used it) to describe the 180° longitude dividing the east and west hemispheres, even though the date line in other contexts is an artificial construct that has been moved around in times past (recently, Samoa wanted it moved east for economic purposes.) At least along the equator, the date line is in fact at the 180° longitude.

Apparently, BOM's OLR charts (shown above) use the region between 170 E and 170 W for a proximate to the "date line." So, the take away would be that it's used to generally describe the east/west hemisphere division.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #630 on: April 17, 2014, 05:36:00 PM »
From Columbia University International Research Institute (IRI), model plumes are indicating a more than 60% chance of El Niño by summer 2014, with a 70-80% chance of development through autumn 2014 and persisting through winter 2014/2015.



At this stage, we're waiting for some initial confirmation that we have in fact entered El Niño conditions, although the Niño 3.4 indices are hovering just below the threshold. I suspect it's taking a while, because the climatological average of the SST's rises through mid-May every year, and even though the Niño 3.4 region is technically getting warmer, it's not warming as fast as the climatological average is. Thus, the index is slow to move from a relative standpoint. This is essentially the mathematical explanation of the spring barrier. By mid-May, I expect the anomalies to begin yawning as the ocean stays warm while the climatology curve descends.

« Last Edit: April 17, 2014, 05:42:21 PM by deep octopus »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #631 on: April 17, 2014, 10:08:18 PM »
The following are daily SOI values for the Long Paddock station for the two ends of the 30-day moving SOI average.  It is clear that as large negative values are existing the 30-day average while small negative values are entering the average; therefore the moving average will be less negative when the BoM value is posted later today.

                       Long Paddock station
                        Daily SOI Value
March 19 2014              -30.73
April 17 2014                -4.62
« Last Edit: April 17, 2014, 10:19:09 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #632 on: April 17, 2014, 11:21:15 PM »
The attached three images are from the following links, respectively.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/r.westpac.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

The first image is of the surface wind (850-hPa) anomalies; the second is for the 200-hPa wind anomalies and the third is of the rain anomalies (all between 5N & 5S in the Western Pacific).  These images give an idea of the expected transition from the CCKW to the MJO and give the idea that the MJO might reach the International Date Line (180o) sometime after April 24 2014.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #633 on: April 18, 2014, 06:10:19 AM »
Attached is the BoM 30-day moving average plot for April 18 2014 (Sydney Time) with a value of -1.4 which is less negative than yesterday, even though the current Long Paddock station daily SOI is negative.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #634 on: April 18, 2014, 06:26:35 AM »
The attached image is the BoM's RMM diagram (from the following link) for the MJO for the past 40-day, issued April 17 2014, and when it is compared to the comparable NOAA diagram in Reply #626, it is seen that the BoM values for the MJO are considerably higher than those provided by NOAA since about April 10 2014.  As the BoM value is different than Wheeler & Hendon values given in Reply #623, it would probably be non-conservative to assume that the BoM 40-day plot is correct (but who knows?):

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #635 on: April 18, 2014, 04:24:06 PM »
The first two Wheeler & Hendon MJO RMM diagrams issued April 18 for data through April 17 2014 show 90-day (by BoM) and 40-day (by NOAA) records, both of which show that the MJO stalled on April 17 and has approximately the same location and magnitude as it had on April 16 2014.  This behavior may be (or may not be) indicative of the modulation between the CCKW that is in the process of degrading, and the MJO which may be (or may not be) strengthening as is indicated in the third & fourth attached images of the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, wind anomalies, respectively, to April 18 with forecasts to April 25 by Ventrice.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #636 on: April 18, 2014, 04:45:26 PM »
As can be seen by the limited table of daily Long Paddock station daily SOI values, below, the values leaving the 30-day moving average are very negative while the values entering the 30-day moving average are less negative.  Therefore, it is likely that today's 30-day moving average may be close to zero, even though the daily values are becoming increasingly negative.

      Long Paddock station
      Daily SOI Value
March 19 2014         -30.73
March 20 2014         -28.34
April 17 2014          -4.62
April 18 2014           -6.13

You can see the complete Long Paddock station information at the following link:

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #637 on: April 19, 2014, 02:55:00 AM »
The first attached image shows the BoM's MJO RMM plot for the past 40-days issued on April 18 2014; which shows the MJO progressing across the Equatorial Western Pacific (which is different than the NOAA plot shown in the previous post).

The second image of the 850-hPa winds (historical & forecast) between 7.5N & 7.5S; which indicates a good likelihood that once the current MJO passes; that the Walker Cell will be converted into an El Nino condition.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #638 on: April 19, 2014, 03:07:50 AM »
As expected the attached 30-day moving average SOI value for April 19 2014 is close to zero (-0.3), and based in the daily Long Paddock station values it is likely that this trend will continue for at least one, or two, more day(s).
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #639 on: April 19, 2014, 02:26:40 PM »
The first attached image of the depth to the 20 degree C thermocline with time from NOAA to the period ending April 15 2014 shows that the EKW has almost displaced all of the cool pool of water that it had trapped along Ecuador's coast by translating this cool water to the south where it probably both: (a) disrupted to weak CTW along the Peruvian coastal, and (b) supplied more cool water to the Humboldt Current, which may have delayed to Nino3.4 index from passing the +0.5 value.

The second image (from earth wind maps from April 19 2014 of surface winds) shows that the tropical depression near 10N 140E is stable.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #640 on: April 19, 2014, 03:14:19 PM »
The attached MJO record (following Wheeler & Hendon issued by the BoM through April 18 2014), indicates that the MJO has weakened significantly between the 17th & the 18th and has not moved eastward very much.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #641 on: April 20, 2014, 03:17:24 AM »
Cyclocane's April 19 2014 Tropical Storm forecast includes the following notice upgrading the risk of a Tropical Storm occurring in the Equatorial Western North Pacific:

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
143.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FLARING AHEAD OF A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE
ISLAND OF YAP. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THIS LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT SWATHS JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED, WITH 5-15 KNOT
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC, AND WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION FROM YAP INDICATES VARIABLE
WINDS AT 4 KNOTS SUSTAINED. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AS HIGH AS 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE INCREASINGLY SHIFTED TOWARD DEVELOPING THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE LLCC TO BECOME COUPLED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION,
AND TC GENESIS INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #642 on: April 20, 2014, 03:23:15 AM »
The attached MJO RMM chart from NOAA through April 18 2014, does not show such a significant reduction of the intensity of the MJO on April 18 [as indicated in the BoM chart in Reply #640], but instead show that the MJO has traveled westward (not eastward) from April 17 to April 18.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #643 on: April 20, 2014, 03:36:25 AM »
The attached SOI plot through April 20 (Sydney time) indicates that the SOI has become positive, ie: +0.7.  Below I also provide a link to the plot source:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI
« Last Edit: April 20, 2014, 03:42:20 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #644 on: April 20, 2014, 03:46:23 PM »
First, the Cyclocane forecast still has a medium probability of a tropical storm/cyclone forming in the next 24-hrs in the Western North Pacific as follows:

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD. THE MSI LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES HIGHER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED;  A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH SHOWS 5-15
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC.
NUMERIC MODELS HAVE SCALED DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ON THIS
SYSTEM TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM."

Second, the Long Paddock station SOI daily value for April 20 2014 is +6.13, so we can expect the 30-day moving average to become more positive when BoM releases it.

Third, the first attached image shows an earth wind map for the surface winds showing two possible atmospheric features that could develop into tropical storms in the Equatorial Western North Pacific.

Fourth, the second attached image shows an earth wind map at 200-hPa, showing that the EEKW is slowly dissipating near the date line, and that as it dissipates it appears to be shedding atmospheric features that could develop into tropical storms/typhoons.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #645 on: April 20, 2014, 04:17:59 PM »
While the various MJO Real-time Multivariate MJO, RMM, index plots do not current agree with each other, nevertheless, attached I provide the 90-day plot of the Wheeler & Hendon plot issued by the BoM, as it is the first such plot to be released.  This plot shows that on April 19 2014 the MJO moved westward (instead of the normal eastward) direction:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #646 on: April 20, 2014, 04:33:12 PM »
The first attached image of the current first three EOFs of the AAO indicates that energy from the Tropical Pacific is currently being telecommunicated directly offshore of the Western Antarctic, where it is contributing to a warmer than average austral Fall in the Western Antarctic.  The second attached image gives the recent AAO values.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #647 on: April 20, 2014, 09:44:24 PM »
According to the attached MJO RMM plot by NOAA through April 19 2014, between the 18th & 19th the MJO continued traveling westward and intensifies very slightly.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #648 on: April 21, 2014, 02:58:43 AM »
The first attached image shows that the numerical value of the BoM MJO RMM index now essentially matches the NOAA value for April 19 2014.

The second attached image shows that the 30-day moving average is now up to +1.7
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #649 on: April 21, 2014, 03:31:15 PM »
The following Nino index data from NOAA shows that the SSTA condition in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific has been largely unchanged for the past four weeks (including for the latest data for the week centered on April 16 2014):

                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 26MAR2014     25.4-0.7     27.6 0.4     27.6 0.2     29.0 0.7
 02APR2014     25.2-0.7     27.8 0.5     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.7
 09APR2014     24.9-0.8     27.6 0.1     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.7
 16APR2014     24.8-0.7     27.7 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.1 0.6

Furthermore, the attached early MJO RMM plot shows that the MJO is continuing to travel westward and thus is not yet having much effect on WWBs or on the Walker Cell.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson