First, the Cyclocane forecast still has a medium probability of a tropical storm/cyclone forming in the next 24-hrs in the Western North Pacific as follows:
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD. THE MSI LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES HIGHER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED; A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH SHOWS 5-15
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC.
NUMERIC MODELS HAVE SCALED DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ON THIS
SYSTEM TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM."
Second, the Long Paddock station SOI daily value for April 20 2014 is +6.13, so we can expect the 30-day moving average to become more positive when BoM releases it.
Third, the first attached image shows an earth wind map for the surface winds showing two possible atmospheric features that could develop into tropical storms in the Equatorial Western North Pacific.
Fourth, the second attached image shows an earth wind map at 200-hPa, showing that the EEKW is slowly dissipating near the date line, and that as it dissipates it appears to be shedding atmospheric features that could develop into tropical storms/typhoons.