2014 El Nino?

[AbruptSLR]

While the ECMM has not yet updated its MJO forecast today; the accompanying two MJO plots (historical and GFS ensemble forecast, respectively), shows the active phase of the MJO has strengthened a little and moved westward (in keeping with yesterday's ECMM MJO forecast).  This seems to indicate that the ECMM forecast my have some validity and that the active phase of the MJO might possibly develop sufficiently in the next week, or two, to influence the Walker Cell:

[AbruptSLR]

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, ECMM, has updated their June 29 2014 forecast (see the attached image & the following link), which confirms that there is still a good chance that this current active phase of the MJO could start to influence the Walker Cell by the second half of July, and by then it is possible that the SOI might support El Nino conditions (we will need to wait and see):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

[Lord M Vader]

For the first time since sometimes for more than a month GFS 12z run forecasts a TC to form in WPAC about 4 days from now.. Unfortunely the possible TC will be at 20N and therefore only give a small contribution to westerly winds.

Speaking about westerly winds, prleiminary PMEL/TAO pic indicates a strengthening of the WW to +4 now. Coming days will decide if this is a real trend or not..

//LMV

[bigB]

Attached are the TAO plots for 5 day EQ-depth temps/anomalies(TOP PLOTS) and the TAO plots for 5 day zonal winds/anomalies(BOTTOM PLOTS), which suggest that the recent run of westerly wind/anomalies in the Western Equatorial Pacific has been sufficient enough to induce at least some weak downwelling. Notice the faint depression in the thermocline around 160E and the weakening of the the cool pool under the Central Pacific(which was actually building just last week). Also, notice westerly wind anomalies are in the 4 M/S-1 as mentioned by LMV. It appears that SSTA have begun to ease a bit. Likely due to the dissipating Kelvin wave. So we really needed these westerly winds/anomalies to help reinforce the dissipating warm pool in the Eastern Pacific. It's also a good sign to see that the MJO is sticking around the Western/Central pacific as reflected in the phase diagrams posted by ASLR.

[bigB]

The attached image is the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site which shows the 30 day avg has dropped to roughly zero(DEAD NEUTRAL). This is the lowest value for the 30 avg we've seen since early May. This is thanks to the weak active phase of the MJO hanging around the Central Pacific and the low pressure system that passed to the south of Tahiti last week. Not due to an atmospheric response. YET

[AbruptSLR]

According to the BoM on June 30 2014 the 30-day moving average SOI remained constant today at a value of +1.5:

[AbruptSLR]

It looks like the bottom portion of bigB's table in his Reply #1156 got cut-off somehow, so I post it here:

{edit: it looks like his table has now been corrected.}

[bigB]

As LMV mentioned, latest model runs continue to hint at possible TC development in the West Pac by mid next week, but as LMV also mentioned, models also continue to suggest the possible TC development will occur at higher latitudes than what we would typically like to see for reinforcement of WWB activity. It looks like weak high pressure will be in place over the far Western Pacific just above the equator, which is part of the reason why the possible TC would be steered along at higher latitudes. However, models are suggesting a strong pressure gradient will develop(between about 4N and 10N) as the possible TC strengthens and passes over the area of weak high pressure. Under this less than ideal scenario, we could actually still get a small amount of beneficial westerly wind. Mostly due to its strength. If this pressure gradient where to shift just a few deg south, it would become very beneficial. See the attached image from the University at Albany forecast for 850-hPa winds and absolute vorticity. For easier on the eyes viewing purposes, I have marked the the pressure gradient and the areas of high and low pressure. 

[bigB]

The following is MARK SPONSLER's latest ENSO/MJO forecast video, updated JUNE 29, 2014. If you want a good reliable source to bounce your own ideas and observations off, or you are interested in ENSO and the MJO, then you will find this video to be of great use and value. Skip to 10:02 to view the ENSO/MJO forecast.

ChasingIce,

This video WILL clarify any questions about whether we need a WWB or "lull". Also, Mark offers in depth expert analysis on pretty much every single plot, image, diagram, model, etc.. that is posted here in this thread. Just check it out. It cant hurt.   

[deep octopus]

Little has changed in the last week for SST indices. All regions held the same, except Niño 1+2 which fell.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 28MAY2014     25.3 1.6     27.6 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.7 0.9
 04JUN2014     24.8 1.4     27.5 0.8     28.3 0.5     29.6 0.8
 11JUN2014     24.6 1.6     27.3 0.8     28.1 0.4     29.5 0.6
 18JUN2014     24.8 2.1     27.4 1.0     28.1 0.5     29.4 0.5
 25JUN2014     24.0 1.6     27.2 1.0     28.0 0.5     29.3 0.5

Niño 3.4 remains at the standard El Niño threshold.

[AbruptSLR]

deep octopus,

It is impressive to me that on average for the past six weeks the Nino3.4 index as been at, or above, the El Nino threshold of +0.5 degrees C.  As the ONI averages over a continuous three month period, we might be 1/2-way (more or less) to having an El Nino event officially recognized.  That said, the attached Equatorial Upper-Ocean Heat Anomalies plot circa June 30 2014, indicates that the current EKW is dissipating rapidly, and if an official El Nino event is to occur this year, the atmosphere will need to cooperate more.

Best,
ASLR

[deep octopus]

ASLR,

I'm finding a 12-week (roughly 3-month) average Niño 3.4 of about 0.4 C.  I suspect the ONI will be somewhere close to that figure for AMJ (April-May-June). Without more pulses of westerly wind bursts or other positive feedbacks, I don't know how much longer this will last. CFSv2 seems to still believe that a moderate El Niño event is in store for the end of the year.

This whole exercise of tracking the Kelvin wave from its western Pacific embarkment to the east, to its surface warming impact, has been quite a learning experience. How can it not be? First, every temptation to view this oceanic system with linear expectations have to be cast aside. But tracking nature by appreciating its actual non-linear behavior continues to elude. Further, how much does background global warming alter the very oceanic oscillations that we attempt to observe? Notice my plot of the 12-month average of the CPC's Trade Wind Index at the 850 mb level for the western Pacific. Is the struggle to bring trade winds to weaken this year simply a part of an ongoing process to return trade winds to "normal" levels after peaking in 2010/2011? That it may take a few more years to weaken trade winds to get to a point when El Niños happen with greater regularity? Or are stronger trade winds in store for the long-term picture? To me, it reinforces that there is quite simply very much about the world we do not understand. Nature is capricious, and its complexity is orders of magnitude more significant than we could fathom.

[AbruptSLR]

deep octopus,

The ENSO cycle was always hard enough to project, but now both (a) that we are transitioning from a negative PDO phase to a positive PDO phase, and (b) that we are experiencing non-stationary conditions due to climate change; it makes forecasts even more difficult.

That said, the ECMM MJO forecast has not yet been updated; but the current (issued June 30 2014) attached NOAA plots, for observed and forecast, MJO behavior, respectively, indicates that it may well be the case that the MJO does not have much of an influence on the Walker Cell during this cycle as the active phase of the MJO weakened markedly yesterday.

[AbruptSLR]

The ECMM MJO forecast issued June 30 2014 just came-out (see attached), and it indicates that there is still hope that the MJO could strengthen.  We should soon see whether NOAA or the European Centre has more skill in forecasting the highly non-linear MJO behavior:

[AndrewP]

Why do you think we are transitioning to a positive phase of the PDO as opposed to just a temporary spike in the PDO due to El Nino conditions as was witnessed in 2010?

[AbruptSLR]

AndrewP,

The PDO data at the following link shows that the current positive values are much higher than any values seen in 2010, and the PDO phase duration has a range that is now coming due to change to a positive range:

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Best,
ASLR

[ChasingIce]

The following is MARK SPONSLER's latest ENSO/MJO forecast video, updated JUNE 29, 2014. If you want a good reliable source to bounce your own ideas and observations off, or you are interested in ENSO and the MJO, then you will find this video to be of great use and value. Skip to 10:02 to view the ENSO/MJO forecast.

ChasingIce,

This video WILL clarify any questions about whether we need a WWB or "lull". Also, Mark offers in depth expert analysis on pretty much every single plot, image, diagram, model, etc.. that is posted here in this thread. Just check it out. It cant hurt.   

I've watched 3 of his video's so far.  He does a great job, and mostly echo's what's stated in this thread. 

[Lord M Vader]

Since 1997 there have been only three months with a higher PDO than May 2014 which occurred in May 2005 and Dec/Jan 2002/2003 during that El Niño year. Will be very interesting to see how June and July values evolves!! If both are of at least same strength we may have a more persistant turn to a positive PDO..

Our main question right now is: how long will this weak WWB persist??

//LMV

[bigB]

The first attached image is a composite using TAO plots for 5 day equatorial subsurface anomalies from June 24, 2014 and June 29, 2014. Looking at the images side by side, one can easily notice a few things: (a) the cool pool under the Central Pacific is continuing to weaken(decreasing from -2 deg c to -1 deg c), (b) the thermocline is gradually becoming more and more depressed around 160E, Pushing warm water down on the cool pool, causing it to appear depressed as well, and (c) the warm pool in the Eastern Pacific is slowly dissipating. This suggests that warm subsurface water in the Eastern Pacific warm pool is continuing to dissipate(as ASLR and I continue to mention), but at the same time, our recent run of westerly winds/anomalies has been sufficient enough to cause warm downwelling in the Western/Central Pacific. Therefore, I suspect that within the next week or so we will begin seeing a weak warm pool building under the Central Pacific, possibly into our next Kelvin wave. Of Note: While NOAA's weekly ENSO update, issued June 30, 2014 states that a cool pool is building under the Central Pacific, the data used to make that observation was over a week old, dated June 22( that's 8 days ago just before the moderate westerly winds started). Since the main source of data for that model is the TAO buoy array, I believe that once that model is updated it will reflect the weakening of the cool pool as shown in the attached image which is current.

Second attached image is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site which shows the 30 day avg has finally dropped just barely into the Negative( see red box). Still reflects neutral but heading in the right direction.

[bigB]

Attached is the University at Albany map of the 42 hr forecast for precipitation and 850-hPa wind anomalies in the Western Pacific, along with the map of the 42 hr forecast for 850-hPa winds and absolute vorticity. Which suggests we will see a short but strong burst of westerly wind just inside the prime area in which Kelvin waves are generated. Don't know just how much effect this will have or how long it will actually last(model suggest 36-48 hours) but I am posting the following images just due to the interesting nature of its strength(11-13 M/S-1). On a side note, same models are suggesting the return of weak east anomalies by 130-180 hrs out. This depends on what the MJO does and how strong it is. The MJO forecast phase diagrams posted by ASLR further up the thread are a good reference for what might happen.

[TerryM]

Possibly this belongs in the Stupid Questions thread, but I wonder if their is paleo evidence of continuing ENSO events during the Emmian or other warmer times?
Terry

[bigB]

Interestingly, we have twin cyclones(Douglas and Elida) in the Eastern Pacific. Images obtained from the NHC.

[bigB]

The following link will take you to the "ENSO powertool" created by Mark Sponsler of stormsurf.com. The "ENSO powertool" is a fast way to view 14 different ENSO and MJO related models all at the same time. It's a great little tool. The models used in the ENSO/MJO powertool are listed below the link.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

1. Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
    Courtesy: NOAA NESDIS
2. Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Wind and Water Temperature Anomaly
    Courtesy: NOAA PMEL
3. Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Height Anomaly
    Courtesy: NOAA CPC
4. Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sub-Surface Water Temperature and Anomaly
    Courtesy: NOAA PMEL
5. Animation (5 day Increments)
    Courtesy: NOAA CPC
6. Southern Oscillation Index
    Courtesy: BOM
7. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
   (Total & Anomaly)
    Courtesy: CPC/NCEP/NOAA
8. Madden-Julian Oscillation: Global 850 mb Wind Anomaly
    Courtesy: NOAA
9. Madden-Julian Oscillation: West/East Pacific Current Precipitation and Wind Anomaly
    Courtesy: Carl Schreck
10. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast
     CFSv2 - Nino 3.4 - Most Recent Ensemble
     Courtesy: NCEP NOAA CPC
11. Madden-Julian Oscillation: West/East Pacific 180 hr GFS Forecast Precip. and Wind Anomaly
      Courtesy: Carl Schreck
12. Madden-Julian Oscillation: Current and Forecast
      30 Day 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly - 5S-5N
      Courtesy: Carl Schreck
13. Madden-Julian Oscillation: OLR 15 day Forecast
      Courtesy: NOAA
14. Madden-Julian Oscillation: 200 mb/Jetstream 40 day Forecast
     Courtesy: NOAA

[bigB]

The attached image from the University at Albany of the latest analysis (June 30, 18:00 UTC) and the forecast(July 5, 102 hr) for 850-hPa winds and absolute vorticity which suggests that Cross-equatorial tropical cyclones or at least areas of low pressure may be trying to form in the Western Pacific. This is usually the signal we're about to see a WWB. It depends on how strong these areas of low pressure become. However, models suggest this will be a rather short lived event if it occurs. Notice the 102 hr forecast suggests high pressure moving in, snuffing out any WWB activity. Weather we all agree we need a WWB activity or not, WWB activity is always welcome. Even more welcoming would be a feedback loop. I have marked the areas of low and high pressure, making them easier to spot. Oh, and TerryM, No question is a stupid question and i believe ASLR may be able to answer your question.

[AbruptSLR]

First Terry, yes the ENSO pattern has continued for all of the recent interglacial periods (for at least 5 million years), including the Eemian, and GCM projections estimate that with increasing mean global surface temperatures that the large El Nino events are likely to become more frequent.

Second, as bigB indicated the SOI is continuing to drop with the 30-day moving average plot issued by BoM on July 1 2014 indicating a value of +0.1:

[Lord M Vader]

Two new invests in WPAC has formed! JTWC give them both a low chance to develop during the next 24 hours. They are located at 8,5N and 13,2N. Together they should be able to help our current WWB to intensify somewhat. GFS 6z run is really interesting as it has the easternmost of the invest being a really intensive hurricane/typhoon at about 15N. Given its intensity it's not ruled out that the TC may reach Cat 4 or even Cat 5 before it crosses 20N at monday or so...

Talking about WWBs, if one look really close to TAO/PMEL pic there is a hint of that the negative anomalies are being reduced now at 160E... Could this be indicative that a new Kelvin wave may be under way which would be extremely much needed!!

//LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached MJO plots issued on July 1 2014 both the ECMM (first attached image), and the GFS (second attached image), MJO forecasts are converging upon a common indication that the MJO will move back to the Maritime Continent within the next week, where it is forecast to gain some strength.  The third attached image is the historical MJO plot which is provided for clarity.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached BoM Nino3.4 weekly index plot though the week ending June 29 2014 indicates an El Nino condition with a value of +0.55 degree C:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached BoM Nino indices 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively, for the week ending June 29 2014 all close parallel the NOAA values reported yesterday, including the fact that the Nino 4 index has dropped significantly indicating that old EKW is not receiving any reinforcement during the time period considered:

[bigB]

Attached image is of  the TAO 5 day zonal winds along with the University at Albany 18 hr forecast for 850-hPa winds and absolute vorticity, suggests our latest run of westerly wind/anomalies(started on June 23) is about to strengthen into at least a “Minimal WWB”. University of  Albany data suggests these westerly winds will peak out at bout 8-9 M/S-1 by tonight/early tomorrow and then hold through at least  July 4th or 5th.  Also of note is the cross-equatorial areas of  low pressure helping to facilitate this strengthening of westerly winds. The area(s) of low pressure in the northern hemisphere is(are) forecast to continue strengthening over the next several days, eventually merging together into one large tropical cyclone, before finally lifting north and getting carried away by the jet stream. Conversely, the area(s) in the southern hemisphere are forecast to strengthen only slightly over the next few days before quickly weakening shortly thereafter. In all, this suggests we have a good solid 3 days of at least respectable WWB strength wind on top of the already 8 days of weak to moderate westerly winds. The last 8 days of westerly wind has already caused weak downwelling so if things over the next few days play out as they are currently being forecast, we will likely see a kelvin wave building by the end of this week. This is based off what models are currently forecasting so things could change.

Second attached image is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site which shows the SOI 30 day avg has dropped to its lowest point since mid April(-2.42). This latest dropping trend suggests that atmospheric conditions are becoming less and less stable, helping fuel tropical cyclone activity.

[bigB]

Attached is a composite of NOAA's high resolution SSTA images of the Eastern Pacific. The top image is from June 20th and the bottom image is from June 30th. Notice the pocket of +4 deg c anomalies on the image from June 20 are gone in the image for June 30, Which suggests that the warmest of the warm water from our surfacing Kelvin has already surfaced and is now flowing slowly back towards the western pacific(carried by equatorial currents and trade winds). Without warm subsurface water reinforcement(Kelvin wave or feedback loop), SSTA will begin a slow drop. Like 2012. However, I believe the westerly wind in the west pacific is sending reinforcement as we speak. So I'm not worried we'll see a repeat of 2012. It will be interesting to see what the Nino indices from the BOM and NOAA say for mid-late July into early august before whatever reinforcement is currently under way arrives in the eastern pacific.

[Lord M Vader]

BigB & ASLR: what do you think about the potential TCs in WPAC? Are they too far away from having any significant effect on the WWBs? Look at GFS 12z run where a major hurricane seems to evolve below 20N... Given the forecast run and the extremely tight isobars I don't rule out a potential Cat 4-5 hurricane. Would such a powerful TC have any significant affect even at 13-20N latitude?

//LMV

[deep octopus]

But for the upwelling, cool Kelvin wave that is still ensconced below the surface, it's too early for a post mortem. See the attached. Evidently, the upwelling Kelvin wave seems to have weakened slightly in the last five days and has made little upward or eastward progress, and is thus less of a threat. Cool water intrusion is how 2012 died. The flip side to this is the clearly weakening warm Kelvin wave that has been banked against South America for three months now. I would say that any WWB action at this point is not a minute too soon.

I expect Niño 3.4 will be dropping back this month, but will gradually respond to WWB activity in weeks ahead. We're now behind 2009 in this index, so the chance that this will finish a memorable event is very much slipping away. Which would be totally anti-climactic, but the fairest thing I could say. If tropical cyclones ensue, the story may finish a bit differently.

[bigB]

But for the upwelling, cool Kelvin wave that is still ensconced below the surface, it's too early for a post mortem. See the attached. Evidently, the upwelling Kelvin wave seems to have weakened slightly in the last five days and has made little upward or eastward progress, and is thus less of a threat. Cool water intrusion is how 2012 died. The flip side to this is the clearly weakening warm Kelvin wave that has been banked against South America for three months now. I would say that any WWB action at this point is not a minute too soon.

I expect Niño 3.4 will be dropping back this month, but will gradually respond to WWB activity in weeks ahead. We're now behind 2009 in this index, so the chance that this will finish a memorable event is very much slipping away. Which would be totally anti-climactic, but the fairest thing I could say. If tropical cyclones ensue, the story may finish a bit differently.

I agree, and couldn't have said it better myself

[Lord M Vader]

and now the most interesting TC invest chances to form during the next 24 hours in WPAC have been upgraded to "MEDIUM"!! The invest is currently located at 8,7N 150,2E.

Look at the pic at: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

And yes, this WWB is not a minute too soon!!! 

//LMV

[bigB]

LMV,

Looking at current FORECASTS, it appears that when the massive topical system is at its peak intensity, it will be tracking too far away from the equator to aid in a WWB. The fetch on the S(south) and SSE(south-southeast) side of the storm appears that it will be running in a northerly direction over the equator when its at its strongest. Looking multiple models, it appears this will be a large(size) super typhoon(intensity) and a very dangerous one at that, as it is forecast to make landfall(China/Japan region). The winds most beneficial to us for WWB activity will occur over the next few days as it interacts with an area of low pressure across the equator from it. Then as High pressure develops a few days out(just to the north of the equator) it will help steer the cyclone north of the equator where it will be picked up/sucked up be the jet stream and carried away. Tropical cyclone tracks are very hard to 100% accurately forecast more than a few days out as their storm tracks heavily rely on other low and high pressure systems around them. Change one little thing and the storm track changes. So we will have to see what happens as it develops. Most models are in good agreement on track, size, and intensity at the moment. although some models now suggest two typhoons, one after the other. Again, we'll have see what happens once these cyclones actually develop.

[Lord M Vader]

BigB: I agree, but we must remember that the models quite often underestimate the evolution of TCs, especially if they have a favorable environment. In this case, given the forecast, I will ot be surprised if a TC is formed by thursday and after that quickly strengthens. With some luck, if "bombogenesis" is to occur the TC may be much stronger than anticipated while it remains below 15N. Maybe even less than 15N is too far north? In some cases, TCs can go from a tropical storm to Cat 5 in about a day or so...

Let's see what's going to happen!

/LMV

[bigB]

LMV,

It doesn't always matter how strong or close the TC is to the equator unless its about 5-10N or 5-10S. Above/below 5-10N or 5-10S, it can vary. So you have to look at the direction of the wind "vectors/barbs" to determine if the storms fetch/wind field is ideal for WWB activity. right now, models show the storms fetch blowing north over the equator. No matter how strong. Again, being a surfer. I'm very familiar with high and low pressure systems and their pressure gradients, fetch/wind field, size, track, intensity, etc... as those are all determining factors of swell height, period, and duration of the waves i surf. The fact that the TC will be lifting when its at its peak intensity and with the strongest fetch being on the eastern to south eastern flank of cyclones in the northern hemisphere suggests models are correct. I've watched 1,000's of storms over the years. If the cyclone was moving along parallel to the equator or stationary, then we would be sitting pretty. However, this is not the currently foretasted scenario. Also, if a cross equatorial TC pair were to develop then you have a bit more room to play around with as the wind in the middle of them would always have some sort of westerly component. Things could look totally different tomorrow. So we'll have to watch it.

On another note i have created a composite using TAO plots for 5 day zonal wind/SST anomalies to show the differences between the first 6 months of 2014 and 2012. Notice the westerly anomalies/WWB's were much weaker during 2012.   

[bigB]

LMV,

Please refer to the images below. I have marked the areas of low and high pressure and the pressure gradient, which shows the winds blowing north over the equator as the TC strengthens. The reason the winds will be unfavorable for WWB activity is do to the lifting nature as the cyclone is steered around an area of high pressure and then picked up the Jet Stream. If this area of high pressure were to not develop or if it were to be smaller allowing the cyclone to get closer to the equator then we could get favorable westerly wind. This high pressure and lifting towards the jet stream is not going to occur for a few more days so right now westerly winds are blowing and fairly strong(+8 M/S-1). Hopefully this helps

..bigB..

[bigB]

Attached is the CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast, updated June 30. The Model continues to upgraded with the Nino 3.4 now forecast to peak at +1.6 deg c.

[AbruptSLR]

The following is the BoM ENSO overview issued July 1 2014:

"While the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature is currently at levels typically associated with a weak El Niño, waters below the surface have cooled and atmospheric patterns continue to remain neutral.
However, over the past fortnight changes have occurred in the atmosphere that may be a response to the warm surface waters–the Southern Oscillation Index has dropped by over 10 points, and weakened trade winds have re-appeared. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Niño to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014.
For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-average daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter and spring. The likelihood of a positive IOD event increases with El Niño. Positive IOD events are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual."

[AbruptSLR]

Attached is BoM's 30-day moving average SOI plot issued July 2 2014 (Sydney Time) with a value of -1.5 (which is still neutral but dropping rapidly):

[bigB]

Attached is a comparison of NOAA's daily AVHRR only OISST anomaly images(IMO the AVHRR is not 100% accurate but i still believe it gives a fairly good idea of whats going on). Top is from June 24, and the bottom is from June 30. Which shows the drop in SSTA's that i suggested was going to happen in one of my posts from last week. This more proof that the warmest of the warm water has surfaced. This is also why i was going on about needing a WWB rather than just a "lull" in trades. Luckily we have a mini WWB under way sending reinforcements. Had these westerly winds not kicked in right when they did. The 2012 El No Show would almost surely have happened again. I suspect by next week the BOM and NOAA Nino indices will reflect this drop. While im rooting for El Nino, which i do believe WILL STILL OCCUR, I have to show both sides of the coin.     

[TerryM]

ASLR
I am relieved that ENSO continues despite the global warming. California needs the periodic inundations.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached NOAA and ECMM MJO plots forecasts, it is clear that within about a week the MJO should return to the Maritime Continent where it is projected to gain strength.

[AbruptSLR]

Cyclocane has issued the following medium cyclone warning for the Western Tropical Pacific, which is a clear candidate to generate a WWB.  So if the SOI keeps falling, and we get a WWB, and the MJO strengthens next week, we could see a strengthening of the ocean/atmosphere interaction to slowing re-build towards El Nino conditions:

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N
150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020329Z
NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 020013Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH UP TO 20 KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS, EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM."

[Laurent]

El Niño will make Indonesia's deforestation even worse
http://da.feedsportal.com/c/749/f/424048/s/3c1ae457/l/0L0Snewscientist0N0Carticle0Cdn258280Eel0Enino0Ewill0Emake0Eindonesias0Edeforestation0Eeven0Eworse0Bhtml0Dcmpid0FRSS0QNSNS0Q20A120EGLOBAL0Qenvironment/ia1.htm

[Michael Hauber]

The current forecast shows a further burst of trade winds over the top of the existing upwelling Kelvin Wave, and cool water already lurking underneath the surface in the central Pacific.  If this forecast eventuates I think we will see an abrupt transition from positive to negative nino 3.4, and game over for this El Nino.

Can it go so far as a transition to La Nina?  The recent drop in ocean heat content is unprecedented (since 1980, so not a huge period of time, and not much negative PDO which may or may not matter), and usually occurs during the transition from moderate or strong El Nino to La Nina.  And usually early in the year.  If we fail to see an El Nino eventuate this will be the strongest spike in warm water that has not resulted in an El Nino by about 50% (next strongest is 2008).

[AbruptSLR]

While the BoM has not updated its plot yet, the following recent data, shows that the SOI 30-day moving average index has dropped to -3.8:


20140530,20140628,1.5
20140531,20140629,0.1
20140601,20140630,-1.5
20140602,20140701,-3.8

edit: Here is the plot issued July 3 2014 (Sydney Time):

[AbruptSLR]

Cyclocane has updated the medium probability to a High probability of a cyclone near 8.7N 150.2E; which should produce a WWB that might reinforce the rapidly dissipating old EKW:

"1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N
150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.4N 148E IS NOW  LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
ADDITIONAL FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST
FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENT IN THE 021210Z ASCAT PASS. A
021609Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 022000)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS."