Attached image is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of July 22, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down at -8.00, the 30 day avg was down slightly at -6.08, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at +1.08. This suggests a weak active phase is currently over the Western Pacific. This is reflected by the latest observation points plotted on the MJO observation/forecast phase diagrams posted by ASLR. I suspect the SOI 30 day avg issued by the BOM will begin dropping as well, the latest daily value using their base period/method came out to -2.09(also a day or so behind). GFS models suggest that for the next 3-5 days, SOI values should continue falling. The last few model runs by the GFS, have begun entertaining the idea of a possible low pressure system passing to the south of a Tahiti. If this were to occur, then a more pronounced drop in SOI values would be seen. Models are also hinting that by early next week a less welcoming SLP pattern may take over. This is just a forecast and relies on the accuracy of weather forecast models.
Also, the strong westerly winds that models have been forecasting over the past few days, have begun as a new TC is trying to develop. Closer to the equator than what we have seen as of late. Models suggest these westerly winds will continue for the next 72 hours or so with anomalies in the 8-9 M/S range. However, like the last several TC's that we have seen develop in the Western Pacific over the past 2-4 weeks, a high pressure system is forecast to develop to the SE of this possibly developing TC. Meaning, easterly winds would follow closely behind, blowing over the same area as the westerly wind. The bit of good news is, around the same time, a patch of weak westerly wind anomalies is to be over or just East of the dateline.
Indeed, as has been mentioned by others, this upwelling phase appears to be gaining its grip. This is normal part of the Kelvin wave cycle and is typical of some years in which a weak-moderate or even moderate El Nino's have developed. It does not appear all that strong, especially considering the impressive strength of the downwelling phase that proceeded it. If the new weak downwelling phase currently seen in the Western Pacific does not continue developing/building over the next 2-4 weeks, then I will really begin worrying, as that would mean too much time has gone by. While cool water is pushing through, +3 deg c water remains. This should help slow down the cooling process. I do NOT doubt we will see some cooling occur. likely back to neutral. The current equatorial subsurface profile looks opposite of that seen in early Feb 2014. When cool SSTA were seen at the surface, while very warm subsurface temps were seen lurking beneath. Except the right now, the cool subsurface temps lurking beneath are not strong(but do cover a moderate size area). I suspect we'll know almost for certain, what the fate will be for 2014-2015 within the next 4-6 weeks. Possibly sooner...