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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1350 on: July 25, 2014, 01:07:14 AM »
Attached are two satellite images of the SPCZ on July 24 2014, showing the influence of the convergence zone on cloud cover (note the first picture was taken at 2100 Zulu Time and the second picture was taken at 2132 Zulu Time).
« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 01:18:28 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1351 on: July 25, 2014, 01:16:44 AM »
Note also, that according to the linked SPCZ forecast from New Zealand, the convergence zone is expected to remain intact from now into (or through) September:

http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/icu/island-climate-update-166-july-2014/south-pacific-convergence-zone-forecast-july-to-september-2014

(edit: However, also note that this forecast from New Zealand projects that the SPCZ will be located west to the International Dateline and thus may not fully support El Nino conditions unless it migrates to the northeast)
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1352 on: July 25, 2014, 02:45:13 AM »
The BoM plot is not out but as indicated below, the 30-day moving average SOI value has not changed much and has fluctuated up to -6.2 (meaning neutral conditions and the possibility of a strengthening MJO):

20140624,20140723,-6.2

edit: attached is the associated plot
« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 04:58:17 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1353 on: July 25, 2014, 03:15:25 AM »
ASLR,

To put it simply, I'm fairly familiar with the ITCZ and SPCZ and actually they are present year round, just stronger and more noticeable in some seasons than others. However, The convection associated with the ITCZ and SPCZ can fluctuate on a monthly, weekly, or even daily basis. When i say that the SPCZ will weaken and not be affecting Tahiti next week, its because the convection associated with the SPCZ is forecast to weaken early next week, regardless of SPCZ location(it will still be in a similar location just not a much convection). Low pressure is found beneath the convection associated with these convergence zones. If the convection weakens then the pressure rises. Again, this is not what i want to happen or my opinion. Its what data and the models suggest(they could be wrong as we know). The SPCZ is usually most noticeable around this time of year, that is true, but the convection and pressure can fluctuate pretty regularly. The position is a different story.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1354 on: July 25, 2014, 05:10:57 AM »
bigB,

I appreciate the wealth of information that you bring to this thread.  However, in the interest of full disclosure, I would be curious to know whether you think of Bob Tisdale as a valuable source of information on matters related to climate change and its impact on the ENSO, as I have also noticed that Mr Tisdale writes extensively about how weather fluctuations, make it difficult to identify climatic trends.

Best,
ASLR

edit: In the interest of full disclosure I would consider myself a Climate Hawk.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 04:59:14 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1355 on: July 25, 2014, 06:29:52 AM »
EDIT: this post has been erased out of respect to this forum, thread, and ASLR.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2014, 02:59:09 AM by bigB »

ChasingIce

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1356 on: July 25, 2014, 06:36:08 AM »
there are plenty of people that follow El Nino for all sorts of reasons. 

Being a SoCal guy, I prefer the sciency guys and not the political guys (which is almost all of them).


this is a good thread, and a good site if you like science.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1357 on: July 25, 2014, 07:50:33 AM »
there are plenty of people that follow El Nino for all sorts of reasons. 

Being a SoCal guy, I prefer the sciency guys and not the political guys (which is almost all of them).


this is a good thread, and a good site if you like science.

Marine Science is one of my greatest interests. Not to get all personal, but most who know me say im a pretty open person. After high school i knew i wanted to become a Marine biologist or Oceanographer. During the summer after my first year at SBCC. I made some very poor choices as teens or young adults often do, which took me away from my studies, family, loved ones, the ocean, and my freedom all of which i truly loved. I ended up wasting 4 years of my life in a human warehouse made of concrete and steel if you know what i mean. Its taken me many years and a lot of help through anonymous programs to get my life back on track. Sometimes my old habits and character defects come flaring back. ASLR, you pushed my buttons, that's for sure. But this is neither the time nor place for this. So back to here and now, and not to be jumping all over the place, but Marine Bio and Oceanography fall into the category of Marine Science. The scientific nature of this thread is what captured my attention. I would rather throw the arguments aside and focus on the scientific stuff rather than too much of the politics. That's what we are all really here for, as ChasingIce just mentioned. So ASLR, do your thing and I'll do mine. I apologize if i pushed your buttons. Hopefully we can get along because i would hate ruin this amazing thread that so many have come to enjoy.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 06:39:29 PM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1358 on: July 25, 2014, 04:54:49 PM »
So ASLR, do your thing and I'll do mine. I apologize if i pushed your buttons. Hopefully we can get along because i would hate ruin this amazing thread that so many have come to enjoy.

bigB,

Thanks for your explanation of why the "Bob Tisdale" by-line disappeared, and I have to admit that that by-line created some doubts in my mind for some time now.  I also admit that in 4 months of following the ENSO I still have a lot to learn and that your posts have contributed to educating everyone reading this thread, including myself.  Therefore, I apologize for pushing your buttons, and I look forward to reading your posts, while I continue to post in my own style; which sometime includes postulating trends (short-term and long-term) that may be disproved/refined by subsequent data (e.g. I did postulate a Strong El Nino by mid-August, which is not going to happen).

In that vein, the attached Wheeler & Hendon MJO historical plot (note the GFS and the ECMM forecasts have still not been updated) shows that yesterday the MJO dropped, which is more in line with the GFS MJO forecast than the ECMM MJO forecast (even though I like the fact that the ECMM includes the influence of climatology, I agree that that does not mean that the ECMM forecasts are going to correct all the time).

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jbatteen

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1359 on: July 25, 2014, 05:17:14 PM »
Following this thread daily.  Thanks everyone for all the great reading material.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1360 on: July 25, 2014, 05:55:29 PM »
The attached earth surface wind map shows that the SPCZ is gaining more definition today as compared to yesterday (which does not mean that it might not dissipate in the coming days/weeks).  Currently, atmospheric conditions are far from ideal for the formation of a potential El Nino event this summer; however, it is still possible that if the SPCZ drifts northeastward, and the MJO hangs-out in the Western Equatorial Pacific for another 3 to 7 days (giving time for a potential WWB to develop) before moving with some strength to the Dateline, then there is still the possibility that an El Nino may develop this summer (note there is a warm pool of water due west of the Dateline that could change the Nino3.4 relatively rapidly if it were to be pushed eastward by some favorable winds).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1361 on: July 25, 2014, 06:19:22 PM »
Michelle L'Heureux with another blog post on NOAA's new ENSO blog.

Quote
What’s the hold up, El Niño?

In the July 10 update and ENSO discussion, we said the atmospheric part of ENSO doesn’t seem to be responding to the ocean.  El Niño requires that both be in sync and coupled with each other.  Why is the atmosphere acting aloof to the rather warm ocean?  This development may be especially surprising to folks given the rumors and speculation of a very strong El Niño that followed March’s oceanic Kelvin wave.

In June, the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia made an interesting observation that might shed light on the lack of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere (1).  They pointed out that an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) gradient was not in place across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.  Like the gradient of a hill on a highway, an SST gradient describes a change in temperature across the ocean surface from one location to another (2). 

As it turns out, the atmosphere over the Pacific cares a lot about SST gradients.  A stronger SST gradient produces stronger winds (3) blowing across the equatorial Pacific.  A weaker gradient results in weaker winds.  This concept can also work in reverse: stronger winds can lead to stronger SST gradients and weaker winds contribute to weaker SST gradients (4).

...


Normally, the SST gradient associated with ENSO becomes stronger as the winter approaches.  The figure above shows the growth of the ENSO-related gradient between the western and eastern SST anomalies for the months of April through December.  In April, May, and June, the gradient is typically not very strong, though there is still a difference between the warmer SSTs in the eastern Pacific and the near average SSTs in the western Pacific (near average SSTs shown by the light colors or white regions).

...

However, near Indonesia and the western Pacific, SSTs have been above average, which is not typical during El Niño development.  It is possible that, in order for the atmosphere to better sync up with the ocean and for this El Niño to emerge and grow, the SST anomalies in the western Pacific and Indonesia will need to become near-to-below average, strengthening the SST gradient (5).   Forecasters will be watching closely for evidence of this change going forward.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what%E2%80%99s-hold-el-ni%C3%B1o

I've been thinking that this really is the heart of our fickle oceanic-atmospheric status. Understanding gradients in temperature and pressure are key to understanding the coupling behaviors of the ocean and atmosphere, for climate in general. Scientists suspect that a decreasing meridional temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is responsible for a slower, meandering jet stream; a decreasing zonal temperature gradient along the Pacific in shorter time scales as the ENSO feedback would appear to affect the trade wind strength as well. The fact that Niño 4 has seen higher anomalies in general than the other Niño regions isn't evidence of a growing El Niño, but of one that is bound to struggle. The flip to this is that a warm Niño 4 region is a reservoir of warm water that is the source of El Niño events. Still, a weak Niño 4 in 1997 and 2009 corresponded with eventual El Niño. I'd surmise that a well-above average Niño 4 is only useful during the initial phases of developing El Niño. Otherwise, if it tracks too closely with Niño 3 and 3.4 or even races ahead for weeks and weeks, the gradients won't be weak enough to encourage westerly trade winds.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 09:03:24 PM by deep octopus »

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1362 on: July 25, 2014, 08:44:58 PM »
Attached image is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of July 23, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -8.80, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -5.38, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at +0.42. Overall, this is neutral. The SOI 30 day avg has continued to rise(become less negative) even with a daily value of -8.80. This is because strong contributing negative daily values are leaving the 30 day avg.

ASLR,

Yeah, I discovered Bob Tisdale about 2 months ago while searching for other sources for SSTA charts. Some of his writings on ENSO came up in my search and I decided to read one of them. Everything he was saying about ENSO seemed to be correct and matched up with a lot of what I have learned over the years(college studies, 20 years surfing reading surf forecast/weather reports, and some internet) and at the bottom of his write up. I saw the quote about presenting data rather than speculation or assumptions, which rang true me. So I decided to use the quote. Well a few weeks later I read another one of his write ups and thought it was interesting so I posted a link in this thread forum. A few hours later I decided to read another one of his write ups(3rd one I ever read), this time I read over some of the public comments at the bottom of the write up. I stumbled across a comment where someone was calling him out on his views about the IPCC and climate change. Bob Tisdale's own startling reaction to the comment prompted me to do some research on him. After 10 minutes I realized, while his info on ENSO is very accurate, his views on climate change among others were not anywhere near my own. I quickly felt like a fool and went immediately to this forum where I deleted his link and the quote. I honestly don’t care much at all for the political side of science, it doesn’t interest me at all. I'm really only interested in meteorology(which I'm thinking about going back to school to take a class or two on since I’ve developed a new passion for it over the last several years), oceanography, and Marine Biology(which has been my true passion since I was a kid). I care and worry very much about climate change. I definitely believe climate change is more man made than natural. Climate change is something new to me so I don’t know much more than probably the avg person. However, I have a pretty decent understanding of marine science. So I can see how you may have thought I was some skeptic or Bob Tisdale fan. ONLY reason I posted his quote was because I liked the quote its self. It had little to do with him. As mentioned. Marine Science is my passion, which in its purest form has nothing to due with politics. Though some scientists may use science itself as leverage for there views. I'm not of that type. Anyways, I'm rambling now. Best wishes...

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1363 on: July 25, 2014, 09:22:35 PM »
ASLR,

It looks like the ECMM and GEFS phase diagrams have finally been updated if you want to post em?

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1364 on: July 25, 2014, 10:00:37 PM »
Climate change is the most important issue of our lives (and why I come to forums and blogs such as this to participate and try to learn more.) We are descending the rabbit hole far more dramatically and far sooner than numerous scientists had suspected only years ago. It seems that in the last seven years or so, study after study has been published, and the take away is that the pace of climate change and its effect (physically, biologically, and chemically) is steadily worsening. Worse than expected. If it wasn't just permafrost, it was permafrost and methane clathrates, or a certain threshold at which permafrost would continue to release methane without stopping. A new understanding of the topography of Greenland suggesting that the retreat of the GIS will not stabilize as soon as thought, bringing in more sea level rise. Not just the gradual calving, but the now irreversible nature of the WAIS ice loss–a much feared point. There are now positive feedbacks from black carbon/soot, algae producing dark pigments, and pine beetles that carry great risks and need to be understood. Stuff from the most obscure corners of human imagination and geographical reach are now coalescing into a Pandora's box of extremely dangerous feedbacks. The more we learn, the more the uncertainty grows, as it is said, because each discovery opens more questions.

I've had my hand in trying to bring people to light on this subject, without being judgmental or accusatory, though I sometimes may come off as a little self-righteous when I cut to solutions. A couple of years ago, I befriended a man much older than me who worked for a different firm in the same office building as mine, just through casual light conversation. He used to give me rides to a martial arts class at which he taught during weekday evenings. We'd talk usually, which I soon found uncomfortable since he often espoused right-wing dogma that fringed on conspiracy theories. He would put trust into the things he heard on Fox News. The one consolation I received, though, in our dozens of car ride conversations, was when he went on a tangent about climate change. Saying Antarctic ice was growing, the Earth was about to head into a cooling... all this other stuff, and I had to stifle my disbelief as much as possible. Without engaging so much of what he said, I calmly explained the basic physics of global warming: how the energy budget of the Earth was tilting out of balance, in that more energy was entering than leaving the system, such that carbon emissions were outpacing the equilibrium with carbon sinks. Deforestation juxtaposed with increased emissions was such an obvious visual example of this. That, due to the trapping of outgoing longwave radiation, the Earth was warming, whether in the oceans or in the sea ice or in the atmosphere. All that extra energy has to go somewhere. He let me go on for about 5 minutes, without interrupting. When I finished my thoughts, he conceded to me, unexpectedly, "Well, it does seem to me that the climate has been changing." Then he said, "I guess we should be planting more trees." Even if I knew this wasn't enough, and our conversation was cut short anyway, I think it helped plant a seed in him to get him to second-guess his beliefs.

We're on the same team, and I think there are many who have been fed lies for so long and are now waking to this environmental emergency. I welcome them, because this is something that will impact every human being and the rest of life on Earth. Glad as I am with this, we're now very late to addressing this. The five alarm fire is going off, and we're just getting around to calling in firefighters. Even if El Niño this year is mild, one year it won't be. And we're going to need as many people cognizant of the cause of our problems as possible if change will happen. Not to get off-topic, I was just interested in the discussion of Bob Tisdale and it got me thinking.

Cheers, everyone.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1365 on: July 25, 2014, 10:53:58 PM »
Deep Octo,

Thank you for your honesty and taking the time to share some of your knowledge and wisdom on climate change. It's much appreciated. Indeed, we're all on the same team.

..bigB..

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1366 on: July 26, 2014, 01:08:44 AM »
I don't think the east to west gradient of SSTs is what matters so much.  2009 had quite warm temperatures in the west and managed a solid nino event.  At the start of the year we had warm in the west and cool in the east and had remarkably strong westerlies to set up an extreme Kelvin wave.  Then once things warmed up in the east the westerlies suddenly died.  I also note that the pressure gradients from east to west has been favorable for westerlies with high pressure anomalies in the west and low pressure anomalies in the east.  From my watching off weather systems it seems that north to south pressure gradients matter most for the strength of the trade winds.  High pressure just off the equator means easterlies, low pressure just off the equator means westerlies.  Warm water in the west means more low pressure near the equator which means more westerlies in the key Kelvin Wave generating region, which is a mechanism I've seen explained a few times in papers on ENSO behavior.



The westerlies seemed to die as southern hemisphere tropical activity ended and the monsoon focus shifted to the northern hemisphere.  Two features I have noticed that may explain the lack of westerlies:

First is the persistent high pressure in the SE Pacific which gives the trades a bit of a kick along.  While in the north Pacific the pattern has been a warm PDO pattern with weak high pressure in the NE and low pressure north of the equator.  Initially I thought the switch to the NH monsoon may boost the El Nino, but I speculate that with winds crossing the equator from S to N that the SH pattern may have more influence on equatorial trade winds during the NH monsoon season.

Second is an area of persistent westerlies in the Indian Ocean about 90E that has been in place since the westerlies died out.  This corresponds to low pressure anomalies north and south of the equator in this area.  These westerlies have not been pushing east towards the pacific as happens with typical MJO behaviour, but have been flowing NE along the Asian coast.  While the monsoon was in the Southern hemisphere the monsoon focus is on Australia and easily spreads into the Pacific.  With the monsoon in the NH India comes into play and shifts some of the focus west perhaps allowing the Indian ocean to have more of an influence (although it is typical for large amounts of typhoon activity to occur in the NW Pacific).
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1367 on: July 26, 2014, 02:46:49 AM »
As bigB noted the ECMM, and GFS, MJO forecasts are out and as indicated by the two attached images (respectively), they are converging together very rapidly (in essence meeting each other 1/2 way).  It is interesting that they both forecast a significant strengthening as the active phase of the MJO moves towards the Dateline and then drops in strength before reaching the Dateline (but probably the forecast will change in the next week).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1368 on: July 26, 2014, 02:50:24 AM »
The BoM 30-day moving average SOI for July 26 2014 (Sydney Time) has drifted up to -5.4 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1369 on: July 26, 2014, 02:57:17 AM »
Attached is basically a hovmoller created using University at Albany maps for 850-hPa winds and absolute vorticity. Showing westerly wind in the Western Equatorial Pacific from July 21 through July 28. The first 5 images are Analyses and the last 3 images are forecasts. Remember, these images suggest actual wind speeds rather than anomalies. If anomalies where shown, the wind vectors(arrows) would appear longer, making winds seem stronger. A few days ago this model had been suggesting these westerly winds were to turn easterly by today due to an area of high pressure developing on the equator. As of last night and through today, this model is now suggesting more of what looks like a westerly wind burst. Suggesting that as the high pressure develops, these westerly winds will continue, traveling over the area of high pressure and back onto the equator, feeding another developing tropical disturbance. It has made some eastward propagation. This looks somewhat similar to some of the WWB's observed in the past, where the westerly wind almost seems to snake its way along the equator as if traveling through a maze. TAO and GFS data suggest the westerly wind anomalies over the past few days have been between 6-9 M/S-1 with brief sustained periods of 10-11 M/S-1. I suspect somewhere in the middle is the safest bet. If these westerly winds continue as forecast then we could possibly see some more weak-moderate warm downwelling pop up on TAO data within the next several days(according to TAO data, which has 4 working surface sensors between 145E-180, the avg of all winds in the western equatorial pacific for June and the last 25 days of July, are weak westerlies of +2 M/S. So weak westerly winds have been observed slightly above normal). The SST continues to cool down in the Nino 3.4 region. Also, SSTA are still cool in the Western Pacific. At least some of the cooling SSTA in the Western Pacific has to do with westerly wind activity/TC activity causing local upwelling. See second attachment of the EMC/MMAB High Resolution RTG SSTA image updated July 25. There different types of WWB. Not all are cross-equatorial. The most likely(but not always) time to see is cross-equatorial pairs of TC's or lows is during the peak of the Australian cyclone season which corresponds with the northern hemisphere winter MJO pattern(though there is much year to year variability with MJO strength, its often strongest in the Northern Hemisphere winter). How do i know? During the Northern hemisphere winter, MJO activity imparts energy into the jetstream which feeds the storms that provide the waves i surf. Not that we are in El Nino, but during El Nino or the Northern Hemisphere summer, the MJO pattern is usually weakest. The opposite is usually true during La Nina and NH winter(strongest). If we are not headed into an El Nino, the MJO activity and strength would likely begin picking up noticeably around September. The Jetstream will also begin strengthening around September and as long as we're not in La Nina, the Western Pacific typhoons will begin re-curving out over the North Pacific becoming extratropical cyclones as they move under the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska or merging with other low pressure systems or fronts, sending me some early season N-NW swell. Early/Late Fall can be a great time for surfers in So Cal, during this time we get swell from both the southern Hemi and Northern Hemisphere(sometimes also the occasional swell from the last of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season) as seasons transition. Anyways, as the MJO activity may begin to strengthen in the next month or so. WWB should begin occurring more often and with more strength. Who Knows maybe even a cross-equatorial pair of lows or TC's.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 05:25:14 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1370 on: July 26, 2014, 02:57:42 AM »
The attached NOAA satellite photos from July 25 2014 at 2100 Zulu, and 2332 Zulu, time show that the SPCZ cloud cover is still far away from the International Dateline (note for an El Nino to develop cloud cover and convection activity need to occur near the Dateline).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1371 on: July 26, 2014, 03:11:36 AM »
ASLR,

That is interesting to see the ECMM and GFS meeting halfway, it seems to me when the models come into agreement like that, its usually a sign of increased possibility of the event actually happening. It may be of some help? By the way, i erased one of the comments from yesterday. I woke up this morning and re-read it and realized it was quite disrespectful to you and the tread. I was in the heat of the moment.

Take care, bigB


bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1372 on: July 26, 2014, 03:42:43 AM »
I don't think the east to west gradient of SSTs is what matters so much.  2009 had quite warm temperatures in the west and managed a solid nino event.  At the start of the year we had warm in the west and cool in the east and had remarkably strong westerlies to set up an extreme Kelvin wave.  Then once things warmed up in the east the westerlies suddenly died.  I also note that the pressure gradients from east to west has been favorable for westerlies with high pressure anomalies in the west and low pressure anomalies in the east.  From my watching off weather systems it seems that north to south pressure gradients matter most for the strength of the trade winds.  High pressure just off the equator means easterlies, low pressure just off the equator means westerlies.  Warm water in the west means more low pressure near the equator which means more westerlies in the key Kelvin Wave generating region, which is a mechanism I've seen explained a few times in papers on ENSO behavior.

I'm in relatively good agreement with this statement!

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1373 on: July 26, 2014, 03:49:56 AM »
Attached is the TAO plots for 5-day Zonal Wind, updated July 25, which according to the TAO array shows westerly winds on the equator were up to 6 M/S-1 yesterday.

JayW

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1374 on: July 26, 2014, 01:30:39 PM »
Lots of activity in the central Pacific.


http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/display_sat.php?sat=CPAC_IR_loop.gif


Interestingly, the convection and associated disturbances appear to be heading in an ENE to WSW trajectory, towards the equator slightly, along the intertropical convergence zone if I'm not mistaken.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global2/main.html

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1375 on: July 26, 2014, 02:54:00 PM »
I am both traveling, and I am busy, off and on, today and for the next three weeks, so many of my normal posts may be late, therefore, I am providing the following links for those who want to download their own plots:

(a) The BoM SOI plots come from the following link:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
(b) The ECMM MJO forecast come from the following link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
(c)  The GFS MJO forecast come from the following link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

bigB,

I look forward to your many posts in the future, and I am glad to have cleared up my uncertainty about Bob Tisdale.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1376 on: July 26, 2014, 04:28:11 PM »
Well the GFS forecast came out (see attached issued July 25) before I lose my wireless, and it is as expected:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1377 on: July 26, 2014, 08:17:58 PM »
Attached image is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of July 26, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -23.76, the 30 day avg was down slightly at -5.49, and the 90 day avg was also down slightly at -0.02. This is attributable to a weak active phase of the MJO, the SPCZ and trough of low pressure passing south of Tahiti lowering SLP in that region, and a large high pressure system currently positioned over Australia raising SLP pressure near Darwin. GFS forecast models are calling for this pattern to hold through tomorrow, before a slightly less favorable SLP pattern begins taking over by Monday/Tuesday. However, GFS models suggest that by later next week, a favorable SLP pattern may return again. possibly due to the SPCZ restrengthening near Tahiti again. This would also correspond with the strengthening MJO suggested in the phase diagram posted by ASLR.

Second attachment is of the TAO 5-day plots for Zonal Winds along with the TAO plots for 5-day EQ-Depth temps/anomalies. According to TAO data, westerly winds of 7 M/S-1 were measured yesterday. Also, according to TAO data, a new Kelvin wave appears to be building.(NOTE: The new Kelvin wave suggested by the TAO data is not yet believable as it has not yet been in place long enough. We need to see several more model updates.

JayW,

Indeed, some of the tropical disturbances(tropical depression Genevieve) and activity seen in the Eastern and Central Pacific are actually associated with or embedded in the ITCZ. Deep convection will increase later next week if the MJO strengthens while moving through phase 7, as is being suggested in the MJO forecast.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1378 on: July 27, 2014, 12:45:43 AM »
The attached image is just meant to provide a historical view of zonal wind anomalies from January 17 through July 26, 2014. The area between the solid black lines at approximately 130E and 170W, is believed to be the GENERAL area in which WWB/westerly winds are most beneficial to the formation of Kelvin waves. Notice that when compared to the neutral or westerly wind anomalies, so far this year there's only been 3 brief weak-moderate bouts of easterly wind anomalies that were of any real concern. Early may, mid June, and mid July. All of which were very short(5-8 days). This image was created by piecing together 3 separate University at Albany 90-day time/longitude  plots of zonal wind anomalies between 5N-5S. You may notice that some of the dates on the y axis(time) are not evenly spaced, that's where I combined one image to the next. The reason for the uneven spacing is because the interval at which each tick mark was labeled(given a date) is different from one plot to the next, but the tick marks themselves go in increments of 2 days. So all the data is accurate, reliable, and lined up.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 05:26:04 AM by bigB »

JayW

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1379 on: July 27, 2014, 01:34:23 AM »
Thanks bigB.

I thought that the global tropics hazards and benefits outlook regarding the MJO issued Friday would be updated more comprehensively, but I'll post it anyway.

So I bolded a couple parts I thought interesting and was curious what you folks might think. :)  The way I'm interpreting this is that the MJO forecasts are really reflecting the equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, and in actuality, the normal MJO that would make the normal 30-60 day orbits is not present. Sorry for the long quote.



Quote
The updated outlook reflects only minor changes. Rainfall associated with Typhoon Matmo has timed off of the previous Week-1 outlook period so the region of favored above average rainfall in the western Pacific was adjusted to reflect this. The area of elevate odds for tropical cyclogenesis in this region was also modified (primarily expanded eastward) to cover two potential systems, one close to the Philippines and another much farther east area of disturbed weather located between 140 E to 160 E. This is the reason for the large highlighted extent. Tropical storm Geneviene developed in the east central Pacific as expected and so highlighted areas of elevated odds of tropical cyclogenesis were adjusted. Western areas of the eastern Pacific basin are favored to remain active through the remainder of the period. Only minor changes were made to the previous Week-2 outlook period.


Previous discussion from 7/22
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The MJO remains generally weak and unorganized and similar to the last several weeks, other subseasonal, coherent tropical variability are dominating the pattern of anomalous tropical convection. Along with the ongoing low frequency background conditions, two important subseasonal features are playing strong roles, namely a robust westward moving equatorial Rossby wave (ERW) located across the western Pacific and a strong, somewhat slow moving eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave (KW) in the central Pacific. Both these features are anticipated to produce impacts in the Tropics in the upcoming outlook period.

During the past week, enhanced convection was observed for an area stretching from India across Southeast Asia into the western Pacific to near the Date Line. Suppressed convection was evident along the equatorial Indian Ocean and parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northern South America. Typhoon Matmo developed east of the Philippines during the past week and is expected to make landfall in Taiwan just prior to the start of this forecast period. Also, tropical cyclone Wali developed in the central Pacific and a small scale tropical depression developed in the central Atlantic in recent days.

The majority of dynamical model forecasts of the RMM index continue to indicate weak or incoherent MJO activity during the next two weeks. These include the GFS, Canadian, JMA and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau models. The ECMWF and CFS forecasts, however, indicate a more amplified, eastward propagating signal over the next weeks. The propagation speed is somewhat fast and of generally only weak to moderate amplitude and may be primarily in response to the somewhat slowly evolving KW mentioned above. The MJO is unlikely to play a major role in anomalous tropical convection and highlighted impacts are principally based on the KW and ERW evolution, the tilt toward a warm ENSO base state and model guidance.

Typhoon Matmo is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall along its track as it makes a second landfall in eastern China early in the period. Moisture from this system is favored to produce above average rainfall across South Korea during the period as well. The evolution of the ERW in the western Pacific is consistent with model guidance for wet conditions in much of the western Pacific during the next two weeks along with the threat for additional tropical cyclogenesis east of the Philippines during Week-1 and later during Week-2 centered at about 20 N, 135E. Considerable drying associated with the suppressed phase of the KW in Week-1 and any potential evolving weak MJO signal favors below median precipitation along the equator from the eastern Indian Ocean across the Maritime continent over the course of the outlook. This is supported by model guidance.

KW activity likely to continue crossing the Pacific basin elevates the threat for tropical cyclogenesis in both the central and eastern Pacific basins and this is supported by model guidance. The east Pacific ITCZ continues to be shifted south and west compared to climatology and so the threat for tropical development continues in Week-2, but somewhat displaced from the Mexico coast. Suppressed rainfall is favored to continue across significant areas of Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean.
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

JayW

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1380 on: July 27, 2014, 02:29:56 AM »
Equatorial temperature anomalies from GODAS, solely my opinion, but, looks interesting and it'll certainly keep my interest.  It will be fun watching how things progress from here, and it's been real fun learning from everyone.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1381 on: July 27, 2014, 03:18:26 AM »
Incase some people don't like to use the links that I provided:

(a) The first attached is the BoM 30-day moving average plot issued July 27 2014 indicating a value of -6.0, which is still neutral.

(b) The second attached image of the ECMM MJO forecast issued July 26 2014 is very similar to the GFS MJO forecast, so it appears to me that the "reformatting" cited by the UK Met Office may have changed the algorithm, of one, or the other (or both) of the two forecasts.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1382 on: July 27, 2014, 04:59:25 AM »
ASLR,

It seems like more of the phase plots of the MJO forecast are in agreement right now, than I've seen in a long time. The following 7 are all basically in agreement: NCPO, NCPE, NCPB, JMAN, EMOM, ECMF, and the ECMM. This is quite interesting.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1383 on: July 27, 2014, 05:01:13 AM »
JayW,

First i want to point out that very importantly the MJO is NOT bound by a perfect always CONTINUOUSLY MOVING cycle around the glob, as it can stall, rebuild then weaken and rebuild again, or be absent. Then the neutral or inactive phase of the MJO can take over. so basically, we can see an active phase leave and come back again as soon as 4 weeks or just Hang out in the background(stall) for a few weeks, then rapidly take off. Or it can be months weeks until we see another truly active phase. Throw El Nino or La Nina into the mix. The list of possibilities is long. The inactive phase can make its cycle and then neutral conditions take over for a while as other types of subseasonal tropical convective variability come into play. The MJO can be highly variable. We saw back to back to back active phases(3 active phases and 1 inactive phase in 4 months) Jan-April. But yes, besides the currently weak active phase of the MJO, there are other types of subseasonal tropical convective variability at play(Rossby waves which may explain why the high pressure is tailing every one of these TC's. Also, atmospheric Kelvin waves which can be part of the active phase of the MJO though NOT always.) This was mentioned in the MJO forecast i also posted back on July 21, issued by the CPC/NCEP. However, its been 4 going on 5 days since that forecast was issued and about 30 days since the last coherent active phase was in the Western/Central Pacific. While these other sources are currently making it hard to see a coherent MJO signal, as they all show up similar on OLR models as negative anomalies or less reflectivity off the oceans surface. There is an active phase of the MJO present its just weak. If the forecast is accurate, by next week the MJO signal will become more clear. enhancing the convection. I repeat, if the forecast is accurate. We'll see what happens. The tropical activity in the Eastern/Centeral Pacific is associated with or embedded in the ITCZ as mentioned earlier. If the MJO strengthens it will enhance it.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1384 on: July 27, 2014, 05:34:22 AM »
Attached is the University at Albany map of the latest Analysis(July 26) for precipitation and 850-hPa wind anomalies in the Central/Eastern Pacific, which shows the SPCZ and the ITCZ(which tropical activity/TD Genevieve is currently associated with or embedded in). Notice purple and blue “lines” of enhanced precipitation north and south of equator.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 05:26:30 AM by bigB »

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1385 on: July 27, 2014, 05:46:20 AM »
Attached is the EMC/MMAB High Resolution RTG SSTA image updated July 26, Which shows continued warming of what appears to a building downwelling phase of our next Kelvin wave. It's becoming clearer and clear to me at least, what this warm pocket is associated with.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1386 on: July 27, 2014, 07:31:20 AM »
Attached is a snap shot of the earth map on July 26, showing SSTA and ocean currents across most of the Pacific, but the main focus is on the SSTA and EQ currents in the Western Pacific. Under closer examination, it appears the warm SSTA just east of the dateline are due to both a building Kelvin Wave and the point in which eastward and westward equatorial currents meet up/collide. Clash of the equatorial Titans.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1387 on: July 27, 2014, 05:30:27 PM »
bigB,

I agree that ever since the UK Met Office posted the following notice, that the MJO forecasts of the most interest have all largely converged, indicating to me that the leading international meteorologists have likely agreed on improved MJO model-formatting standards:

"Please Note: The UK Met Office has changed their operational global model configuration and strategy. Included in this change are format changes to data displayed on this page. Figures using the new datasets along with documentation listing the changes are expected to be available by COB 7/25."

As can be seen by the attached GFS (first image), and ECMM (second image), MJO forecasts issued July 27 2014, these two projections are practically the same and both indicate little likelihood that the MJO will have a meaningful impact on the El Nino prospects on this given cycle.  This implies to me that a moderate El Nino is not very likely this year, and that at most a weak El Nino might develop towards the end of the summer if both the SPCZ and the ITCZ shift to direct more convective energy towards the Dateline over the next month, or so.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1388 on: July 27, 2014, 05:44:23 PM »
The attached Albany U vorticity & surface wind 180-hr forecast (based on the GFS model) indicates that all of the tropic storm activity is too far North (or South) of the equator to generate any meaningful WWB through August 3rd.  Therefore, the next phase of down-welling this summer will likely be relatively weak (unless conditions change significantly):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1389 on: July 27, 2014, 08:05:38 PM »
The attached plot comes from the linked January 2014 NASA article, and presents the correlation between the global mean surface temperature changes and El Nino/La Nina phase, frequencies and magnitudes.  This plot shows that while for the past 15-years La Nina events have been more frequent than El Nino events, the global mean surface temperature changes during the La Nina years have moved up closer to the mean, while during the El Nino years the global mean surface temperature changes have moved up away from the mean.  This implies to me that as the earth moves into a positive PDO (IPO) phase (which may last 15 to 25 years) when El Nino event will become more frequent, mean global surface temperatures changes are likely to increase non-linearly.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20140121/

Caption for image: "Chart of the temperature anomalies for 1950-2013, also showing the phase of the El Niño-La Niña cycle. (Image Credit: NASA/GSFC/Earth Observatory, NASA/GISS)"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1390 on: July 27, 2014, 09:09:17 PM »
First ttached image is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of July 27, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -28.69, the 30 day avg was down slightly at -5.64, and the 90 day avg was also down slightly at -0.36. This reflects ENSO-neutral. Current negative values are attributable to a very weak active phase of the MJO, the SPCZ and a trough of low pressure passing south of Tahiti, lowering SLP in that region(The trough or area of low pressure currently helping lower daily values is expected to move away from Tahiti by tonight), and a large high pressure system currently positioned over Australia raising SLP pressure near Darwin. This high pressure system is expected to move east and away from Australia during the next few days, eventually passing south of Tahiti and interfering with SLP and the SPCZ in that region. However, by later on next week, models suggest that new a area of high pressure will move over Australia, while at the same the SPCZ is expected to restrengthen over Tahiti, lowering SLP to as low as 1010 MB(though you can't see this in the second attached image because its zoomed out). See second attachment of Surfline.coms GFS forecast of the next 6 days for SLP and precipitation. I would provide a link to these  Surfline.com charts but you have to be a paying member to view them. So this is the best way I can share them. Notice Darwin and Tahiti have been marked as well as the equator. Also, like ASLR, I believe after viewing the latest MJO forecast and other types of weather forecast models, the MJO will not reach enough strength and move too quickly in and out of phase 7 to have any real significant impact on things. At this point in time, its my belief that trusting SHORT RANGE weather forecast models past about 4 or 5 days is risky business. So when viewing weather forecast models past 4 or 5 days, it may be safer to focus on possible trends rather than actual day to day events.

EDIT: I just noticed the forecast shown in the second attachment suggests a POSSIBLE area of expanding low SLP(1010 MB) on the equator near the dateline, starting July 31 and growing in size through August 2. This appears to have something to do with the low SLP and re-strengthening of the SPCZ near Tahiti. Just an interesting observation and too far out to consider reliable just yet. If this even happens, I'm curious as to what could cause this if not a building Kelvin wave(warm SSTA lowering SLP above them) or the active phase of the MJO(to my knowledge, lowering SLP most noticeably near the dateline in phases 5, 6, and very start of 7)?
« Last Edit: July 27, 2014, 10:28:39 PM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1391 on: July 28, 2014, 03:18:45 AM »
The 30-day moving average BoM SOI plot for July 28 2014 indicates that the index has fluctuated up to -5.3:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1392 on: July 28, 2014, 06:30:24 AM »
The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated July 27, 2014. Skip to 10:50 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.




AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1393 on: July 28, 2014, 04:48:48 PM »
Per the following NOAA table for the week centered on July 23 2014, the Nino3.4 index has dropped to -0.1, as have the Nino 3 and the Nino 4 indices, while the Nino 1+2 index has gone up:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 11JUN2014     24.6 1.6     27.3 0.8     28.1 0.4     29.5 0.6
 18JUN2014     24.8 2.1     27.4 1.0     28.1 0.5     29.4 0.5
 25JUN2014     24.0 1.6     27.2 1.0     28.0 0.5     29.3 0.5
 02JUL2014     23.6 1.4     27.0 1.0     27.8 0.4     29.1 0.3
 09JUL2014     23.0 1.1     26.5 0.6     27.6 0.3     29.1 0.3
 16JUL2014     23.1 1.5     26.2 0.6     27.4 0.2     29.1 0.4
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2


Note that the CFS.v2 model is still forecasting an El Nino to develop beginning in the next couple of months, and in this regards, also per NOAA: (a) the first attached image of the heat evolution in the Equatorial Pacific indicates that a new down-welling phase may be initiating; and (b) the second attached image of the Equatorial Pacific heat anomalies indicates that the current cooling phase in the equatorial zone may be bottoming out.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2014, 04:42:26 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1394 on: July 28, 2014, 04:55:28 PM »
While the MJO increased from July 26 to July 27, both the attached GFS forecast (first image), and the ECMM forecast (second image), indicate that the active phase of the MJO will weaken rapidly and will move eastward too fast to have any meaningful impact on the El Nino prospects:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1395 on: July 28, 2014, 08:27:25 PM »
Attached image is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of July 28, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up(less negative) to -13.85, the 30 day avg was up(less negative) slightly at -5.64, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at -0.46. This reflects ENSO-neutral. Current negative values are mostly attributable to a low pressure system and the SPCZ. The weak MJO appears to no longer be influencing negative daily values. Although, it really only had little effect if any. The 30 day avg SOI values should continue to rise through the next several days, possibly dramatically. This would be due to positive daily values entering the 30 day avg, while strong negative values are leaving the 30 day avg. The 90 day avg would no be affected the same way, as the strong negative values are still part of the 90 day avg. Therefore we may see that continue to drop or stay around what it currently is. Later this week GFS models are calling for the return of low SLP at Tahiti. Possibly due to a low pressure system or the return of the SPCZ. Or both. We'll see. This is just forecast and relies on the accuracy of weather forecast models.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1396 on: July 28, 2014, 08:30:36 PM »
Per the following NOAA table for the week ending July 23 2014, the Nino3.4 index has dropped to -0.1, as have the Nino 3 and the Nino 4 indices, while the Nino 1+2 index has gone up:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 11JUN2014     24.6 1.6     27.3 0.8     28.1 0.4     29.5 0.6
 18JUN2014     24.8 2.1     27.4 1.0     28.1 0.5     29.4 0.5
 25JUN2014     24.0 1.6     27.2 1.0     28.0 0.5     29.3 0.5
 02JUL2014     23.6 1.4     27.0 1.0     27.8 0.4     29.1 0.3
 09JUL2014     23.0 1.1     26.5 0.6     27.6 0.3     29.1 0.3
 16JUL2014     23.1 1.5     26.2 0.6     27.4 0.2     29.1 0.4
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2


Note that the CFS.v2 model is still forecasting an El Nino to develop beginning in the next couple of months, and in this regards, also per NOAA: (a) the first attached image of the heat evolution in the Equatorial Pacific indicates that a new down-welling phase may be initiating; and (b) the second attached image of the Equatorial Pacific heat anomalies indicates that the current cooling phase in the equatorial zone may be bottoming out.

This appears to be the case and i concur your observations.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1397 on: July 28, 2014, 11:51:44 PM »
Attached is the overview section of the CPC/NCEP MJO weekly update, issued July 28, Which suggests a similar scenario as last week. The MJO remains weak while other modes of tropical variability strongly enhance the convective pattern. However, as mentioned in response to JayW a few days ago. While uncertain, the MJO may enhance convection over the central Pacific during the upcoming week. The following link is provided for those who would like to view the full discussion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1398 on: July 29, 2014, 02:41:21 AM »
The attached BoM 30-day moving average issued July 29 2014 (Sydney time) indicates that the index has drifted up, from yesterday, to -5.2 (and thus is still neutral)
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1399 on: July 29, 2014, 05:13:21 AM »
The attached images were created using TAO array data and showing the late summer through late Fall(August-November) subsurface equatorial profile during the first year in which at least a weak-moderate El Nino was declared. Years included are as follows: 1991, 1994, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009. I was only able to obtain TAO Monthly EQ-Depth plots going back to 1991. I left out the 1997-1998 El Nino on purpose due to the fact that it was a super El Nino and configured a bit differently. The different color boxes and arrows are to show the order and to help the viewer from becoming confused. I wont go into detail here since I think the images speak for themselves. I chose August through November because that seemed to the best time frame in which Kelvin wave activity ramped up for all El Ninos shown below. Maybe the CFSv2 is taking this scenario into account. This also provides a renewed or increased hope that we could still see a moderate El Nino develop this year.

First attached image is 1991 and 1994

Second attached image is 2002 and 2004

Third attached image is 2006 and 2009