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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1500 on: August 18, 2014, 03:23:35 PM »
As can be seen from the following NOAA data, the Nino3.4 index remained a 0.0 for the week ending on August 13 2014:

                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 11JUN2014     24.6 1.6     27.3 0.8     28.1 0.4     29.5 0.6
 18JUN2014     24.8 2.1     27.4 1.0     28.1 0.5     29.4 0.5
 25JUN2014     24.0 1.6     27.2 1.0     28.0 0.5     29.3 0.5
 02JUL2014     23.6 1.4     27.0 1.0     27.8 0.4     29.1 0.3
 09JUL2014     23.0 1.1     26.5 0.6     27.6 0.3     29.1 0.3
 16JUL2014     23.1 1.5     26.2 0.6     27.4 0.2     29.1 0.4
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30JUL2014     21.8 0.6     25.5 0.2     26.9-0.1     29.0 0.3
06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1501 on: August 18, 2014, 05:31:45 PM »
NOAAs latest update is interesting as the forecast for spring 2015 doesn't show a return to La Niña. I more and more think we should consider the risk for a "double-whammy" El Niño. My arguments for this are following:

1. It's rare but have happened earlier. 1986-1988 was such a case.

2. The huge HP dome that have been hovering west of the NA coast. You don't put a HP that big away too easily. It takes some time.

3. The weather is getting more and more stucked.

One interestign feature that have appeared after periods with a stretched La Niña-conditions is that they usually have been followed by long El Niño-ished periods (see page 21 at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf). Two good examples are 1974-1976 and 1999-2001.


bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1502 on: August 18, 2014, 09:52:08 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 18th, the daily SOI value was down to -7.34, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -7.62, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to -1.81. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies. According to GFS models for SLP and precipitation, a pattern favoring weak-moderate negative daily SOI values should continue for the next several days. A high pressure system will be passing south of Tahiti during the next 2-3 days, likely putting a damper on the more moderate negative daily values that were expected. The SPCZ and slightly above avg SSTA at Tahiti should help to counter this high pressure system, keeping the SLP pattern at Tahiti favorable. By this weekend(August 23), low pressure is expected to be passing south of Tahiti while the SPCZ looks to be possibly rebuilding just west of Tahiti. If this were to occur it would help facilitate more moderate negative daily SOI values. Over all, the SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti looks to support negative or at least near negative daily SOI values for the next several days. This would in turn, cause the 30 and 90 day avg SOI values to either continue dropping very slowly or at least hold at around what they currently are. Maybe through Sunday.(see 2nd attached image, which shows the SLP/precip forecast for Aug 20th on top and Aug 23rd on bottom). NOTE: The SOI is very Volatile, due to the many oceanic and atmospheric variables that can affect it. Therefore, its hard accurately predict more than a few days into the future. So please keep in mind this is just a possibility and relies on the accuracy of weather forecast models.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1503 on: August 19, 2014, 03:35:07 AM »
The attached plot issued by the BoM on August 19 2014 of the 30-day moving average SOI indicates that the index has drifted down to -8.2.  While nominally any sustained SOI values below -8.0 indicates atmospheric conditions that are supportive of El Nino conditions, due to the volatility of this index and the relatively low Nino indices, we are still relative far from sustainable El Nino conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1504 on: August 19, 2014, 05:26:58 AM »
TD 12-E has become tropical storm Lowell. The following is quote from the NHC, TS Lowell discussion # 5:


Quote
... A northward surge of moisture into the southwestern United States, partly caused by the eastern portion of the cyclone's large circulation, is still forecast by most of the global models to occur by late Wednesday and Thursday.  Please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more details on a possible heavy rainfall threat.

OF NOTE: Long range GFS forecast models suggest another TC just as big as Lowell will develop around Aug 26 or 27, but models are suggesting this TC would be MUCH stronger and track MUCH closer to the U.S. West Coast. We'll see.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1505 on: August 19, 2014, 04:02:02 PM »
The attach Nino 1, 2, 3, and 4 indices, respectively, issued by the BoM for the week ending August 17 2014, are all up, indicating a trend towards conditions more favorable for a possible El Nino later this summer:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1506 on: August 19, 2014, 04:06:17 PM »
The two attached plots were issued by the BoM for the week ending August 17 2014,

The first plot shows that the Nino 3.4 index has increased to +0.23; which is still neutral, but indicates a trend that is increasingly favorable for a possible El Nino event later this summer.

The second plot shows that the IOD is becoming increasingly negative; which implies that if an El Nino event does occur this year (which the BoM gives a 50-50 chance) then it is likely to be weak.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1507 on: August 19, 2014, 05:26:53 PM »
Next two weeks may yield a WWB over the Central Pacific and possibly eastern Pacific if NOAA forecast turns out to be correct. In accordance to this there is also the possibility of a strong TC to develop around 10N west of Costa Rica in a couple of days. However, this possible TC will track on a WNW path which isn't the most optimal but nevertheless.

If the WWB will come it should make a good contribution to push the Kelvin wave located at 170W on 150 m depth further east and more "closer" to the surface.

Anyway, it will be intereesting to watch!

At this moment Longpaddocks 30-day value have dipped to -8,09 indicative of weak El Niño conditions! :)




bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1508 on: August 19, 2014, 07:38:08 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 19th, the daily SOI value was down to -10.99, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -8.09, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to -1.99. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies. As mentioned or pointed out by ASLR, even though the 30 day avg has reached the thresh hold of what would normally be considered indicative of at least weak El Nino conditions, it now needs to hold there for at least another 6-8 weeks.   

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1509 on: August 20, 2014, 01:35:39 AM »
Per the BoM 30-day moving average SOI data below, the index has drifted down to -8.3:

20140720,20140818,-8.3

edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 03:29:00 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1510 on: August 20, 2014, 04:50:27 PM »
The two attached plots are from NOAA, with the first showing the Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Temperature Anomalies for August 16 2014.  The second attached image shows the Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies circa August 20 2014.  Both of these plot indicate a meaningful increase in ocean heat in this area.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1511 on: August 20, 2014, 04:57:36 PM »
As the NCEP Nino 3.4 forecast has not been posted in a little while, I attach the associated plot issued August 20 2014 projecting that a mild El Nino will develop by the end of this summer and will continue past April of 2015.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1512 on: August 20, 2014, 05:57:30 PM »
ASLR: that graph over the forecasted Niño-index supports the idea that we'll see a small El Niño or a "modoki" one this year before the big one arrives next year..

Further, NOAA forecasts a stronger westerlies the next 7 days with wind anomalies exceeding 10 m/s which seems to last to the first days in September:


bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1513 on: August 20, 2014, 07:46:12 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 20th, the daily SOI value was down to -12.81, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -8.50, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to -2.31. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1514 on: August 20, 2014, 10:20:03 PM »
The following is just an updated(on August 19th) version of the excerpt I posted earlier in the month from Mark Sponsler's MJO/ENSO update, regarding the possibility of a developing feedback loop/coupling of the ocean and atmosphere.


Link to full MJO/ENSO forecast here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml

“...And finally, there's the 'feedback loop' consideration.  We suspect it might already be in-play. The largest argument in favor of that is the total breakdown of the Gulf of Alaska high pressure system, resulting in very high water temps off California. Also the early season recurving of multiple tropical low pressure systems tracking northeast off Japan bound for the dateline. And the pulse of tropical activity near Hawaii on the week of 8/4 and those systems continued evolution in the West Pacific is most telling. The only argument against the feedback loop is the development of a west moving Pacific Counter Current, a dissipating Kelvin Wave and the degradation of peak water temps in the Ecuador triangle and only a neutral 90 day SOI (rather than a negative one). But all these could easily just be symptoms of the upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle. Only once the ocean and atmosphere are coupled on a global level (that is, the ocean has imparted enough heat into the atmosphere to start changing the global jetstream pattern) can one begin to have confidence that a feedback loop is developing and a fully matured El Nino can result. About 3 months of undisturbed heating is required for the atmosphere to start responding on a global level where the point of 'no return' could be achieved. The warm pool starting forming in earnest on 5/1, and so the atmosphere would not trip over the 'no-return' point till 8/1. We have reach that threshold. As of 8/19, all the arguments against a feedback loop being in place were fading out.  Instead the SOI was steadily trending negative, the Pacific Counter Current is again starting to trend westerly, and a new Kelvin Wave is building with slightly warmer water already priming the subsurface channel. Assuming the arguments against coupling were all associated with the upwelling Kelvin Wave phase, then one can conclude the ocean and atmosphere are now linked /teleconnected. Considering the size and duration of the westerly wind bursts in Jan-April, it seem hard to believe that at least some Pacific Basin wide 'change' was not already well entrenched even early this year, and had been developing since perhaps as early and Oct of 2013 (when the first Kelvin Wave of the series started taking shape). Monitoring the number, location and track of tropical systems in the North Pacific over the next few weeks will help to sort things out, as will monitoring westerly wind anomalies and warm subsurface water buildup in and under the Kelvin Wave Generation area. Also monitoring of the NPac jetstream (which is now starting to looks much better as of 8/19) and Atlantic hurricane activity (which is nonexistent) is key. But at this time odds continue stacking in favor of a global teleconnection now being established. If that's true, deepening of the ENSO cycle could begin in the next month or so, and perhaps rapidly once it starts.”

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1515 on: August 21, 2014, 01:49:33 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI index has dropped down to -9.2:

20140721,20140819,-9.2

edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 03:20:09 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1516 on: August 21, 2014, 01:54:14 AM »
Attached is the UAlbany(courtesy Carl Shreck) 30 day time/longitude plot of zonal wind anomalies between 5N-5S, along with with TAO plots for 5 day Zonal wind anomalies, which shows current zonal westerly wind anomalies measured at oceans surface are currently mostly between 0 to maybe +2 M/S-1. The UAlbany plot suggests that there may be small spots/patches of weak easterly wind anomalies in about the -1 M/S range in Western Pacific, which seems reasonable given other data sources. Weak westerly wind anomalies are projected to kick back in across much of the Central/Eastern Pacific over the next 7 days, if not already, while neutral anomalies are projected to take control of the Western Pacific. Overall, the pattern looks much like a slackening of trades winds across almost the entire Equatorial Pacific, with hints of weak westerly anomalies here and there. This should allow the NECC to continue strengthening, pushing warm surface water to towards the Eastern Pacific. Also, this should allow the building downwelling Kelvin wave phase to continue picking up steam as pushes east. The process temporarily stalled or at least slowed down for a few days in mid august as westerly wind anomalies faded and weak easterly anomalies picked up, but it was very very short lived and appears to have had little to no effect on the long term trend(notice in UAlbany plot below, weak easterly anomalies were briefly in play around August 12-16). It looks like warm SSTA are actually filling back in along the equator and the cool SSTA caused by the upwelling phase are becoming less and less of threat, if any(see second attached SSTA image from August 20).

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1517 on: August 21, 2014, 07:07:12 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 21th, the daily SOI value was up to -9.17, the 30 day avg was down just slightly to -8.53, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to -2.58. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies. According to GFS models, Darwin and Tahiti should continue to see a SLP pattern that would favor negative to near negative daily SOI values. The 30 day avg will likely continue to drop for the next 3 days, but around August 25th ,26th and possibly the 27th, moderate-strong negative daily SOI values will be leaving the 30 day avg while only weak to possibly moderate negative daily SOI values  are expected to be entering. This may cause the 30 day avg to rise(become less negative) just slightly during those 2-3 days. Then, by the 28th, the 30 day avg may possibly start dropping again. Overall, it doesn’t look like the 30 day avg will be leaving negative territory any time soon.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1518 on: August 22, 2014, 03:29:24 AM »
Attached are images of GOES visible and water vapor imagery from the NHC. Notice the very large size of hurricane Lowell when compared to other TC's from earlier in August. Also, notice in the water vapor imagery, So Cal is getting much needed precipitation enhanced by Hurricane Lowell. Flood warnings are being issued across a large section So Cal. Hurricanes this large(size-wise) are not common in the Eastern Pacific basin. GFS models are still suggesting another hurricane just as large as Lowell will soon follow, but much stronger. The NHC is now giving this next possible TC a 90% chance  for development. This is not a normal year by any stretch of the imagination and is at least somewhat attributable to oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The ACE(Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value for the Central/Eastern Pacific hurricane season so far is somewhere between 95-100. That's well above normal!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1519 on: August 22, 2014, 05:25:51 AM »
Per the attached BoM plot issued August 22 2014, the 30-day moving average SOI index has drifted down to -9.3.
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1520 on: August 22, 2014, 06:08:19 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 22th, the daily SOI value was down to -10.99, the 30 day avg was down some to -8.84, and the 90 day avg was down to -2.81. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1521 on: August 23, 2014, 03:08:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM on August 23 2014, the 30-day moving average for the SOI index has drifted down to -9.4.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1522 on: August 23, 2014, 08:38:40 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 23th, the daily SOI value was down to -12.50, the 30 day avg was down some to -9.25, and the 90 day avg was down to -3.11. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

wili

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1523 on: August 24, 2014, 02:39:29 AM »
You folks seem to be operating on a whole different level with regards to this. But for the non-experts, here's an approachable recent take on El Nino possibilities:

http://theconversation.com/dont-dismiss-a-2014-super-el-ni-o-just-yet-30720?utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=5e79efb2f0-DAILY_BRIEFING&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-5e79efb2f0-303429069

Don’t dismiss a 2014 ‘super’ El Niño just yet
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1524 on: August 24, 2014, 02:46:51 AM »
wili,

Thanks for the link, and in the way of increasing probabilities of an El Nino; according to the attached BoM plot issued August 24 2014 (Sydney time), the 30-day moving average has dropped down to -9.6.  Nevertheless, we are 4 to 6 weeks away from any possible synchronization of the atmosphere and the ocean that could support an El Nino of any magnitude.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1525 on: August 24, 2014, 08:25:17 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 23th, the daily SOI value was up slightly to -11.59, the 30 day avg was down some to -9.34, and the 90 day avg was down to -3.33. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. According to GFS models for SLP and precipitation, a SLP pattern favoring negative daily SOI values should continue for the next several days. However, moderate-strong negative daily SOI values will be leaving the 30 day avg over the next 3 days while only weak-moderate negative daily SOI values are expected to be entering. This should cause the 30 day avg SOI values to rise or become less negative during that time period, but only slightly. Then by August 28, weak positive daily SOI values will be leaving the 30 day avg while moderate negative daily SOI values are expected to be entering. This should cause the 30 day avg SOI values to start dropping again. Almost all long range OLR forecast models suggest that suppressed convection or the inactive phase of the MJO is over the Maritime Continents and Western pacific. Some models suggest that it will weaken over the next 5-10 days with a neutral or very very weak active MJO signal taking over by about two weeks out. Other models suggest this suppressed convection/inactive phase of the MJO will basically remain in control over the Maritime Continents and Western Pacific for at least the next 2 weeks. Its worth noting that OLR models also suggest that enhanced convection is to hang around the Eastern Pacific for the next week or so, likely in association with tropical activity in that region(SIDE NOTE: major and mighty hurricane Marie is currently spinning in the Eastern Pacific with max sustained winds of 140 mph an tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 250+ miles from the center. She is expected to reach CAT 5 status). Current data and forecasts for zonal wind anomalies, suggests that neutral-weak easterly wind anomalies are in control of the Western Pacific while neutral-weak westerly wind anomalies are in control of part of the Central Pacific and most of the Eastern Pacific. This pattern is expected to remain play for at least the next week. The zonal wind anomaly pattern as of late, seems to resemble that of neutral to slightly collapsed trades. Overall, it would appear that we are inching ever closer to at least a weak or even moderate El Nino. The signs and symptoms of a strong or super El Nino are just not there.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1526 on: August 25, 2014, 01:13:17 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM on August 25 2014 (Sydney time, for measurement through August 23), the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -9.7:

20140725,20140823,-9.7

edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: August 25, 2014, 03:06:07 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1527 on: August 25, 2014, 03:36:53 AM »
Attached are GOES visible satellite images from NOAA's NHC and SPSD on Aug 24, which show powerful CAT 5 hurricane Marie spinning in the Eastern Pacific. Marie is the only 15th CAT 5 on record in the Eastern Pacific since 1959 and its been 4 years since we last saw a CAT 5 in this region. She has hurricane force winds extending outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 310 miles from the center. That's roughly a 600+ mile wide tropical storm force wind field. VERY rare for the Eastern Pacific Basin. This is most definitely attributable to the El Nino (like) oceanic and atmospheric conditions currently developing in that region. Provided is a link to NOAA's SPSD site for those who would like to add VERY high resolution satellite imagery of TC's around the world to their bag of tools.

NOAA's SPSD link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1528 on: August 25, 2014, 05:40:20 AM »
The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated August 24, 2014. Skip to 9:06 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.



Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1529 on: August 25, 2014, 07:08:52 AM »
BigB: yes, CAT 5 hurricanes in EPAC are rare and they lmost certainly only arise during El Niño-years.. Only two of them since 1970 and onward have developed during non - El Niño years which occurred in June 1973 (Ava) and June 2010 (Celia)...

I take this as another sign that we are heading for an El Niño...

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1530 on: August 25, 2014, 05:15:25 PM »
Big jump in the Niño 3.4 region over last week, from 0.0 C to +0.3 C. Niño 1+2 regions also up again, suggesting the eastern Pacific is holding on to its warm grip.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30JUL2014     21.8 0.6     25.5 0.2     26.9-0.1     29.0 0.3
 06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
 13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014     22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4

As the OSPO SST anomaly chart for August 25th shows, this warm area of the ocean is being quite resilient in the face of the recent onslaught of cooler water. This is suggesting that there may be some reinforced odds that El Niño will appear this year.

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1531 on: August 25, 2014, 05:20:07 PM »
As the latest (August 21) GODAS subsurface sea temperature profile chart shows, the new warm, downwelling Kelvin wave is increasing in breadth. Some warm water is clearly already lifting to the surface in the eastern central Pacific, a likely contributor to the 0.3 C jump in Niño 3.4 this past week.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1532 on: August 25, 2014, 07:20:39 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 25th, the daily SOI value was up to -6.62, the 30 day avg was up some to -8.77, and the 90 day avg was down to -3.49. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. The 30 day avg should rise or become less negative for another day or two. However, as mentioned previously, a dropping trend should quickly resume, likely by Aug 28.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1533 on: August 25, 2014, 07:47:56 PM »
BigB: yes, CAT 5 hurricanes in EPAC are rare and they lmost certainly only arise during El Niño-years.. Only two of them since 1970 and onward have developed during non - El Niño years which occurred in June 1973 (Ava) and June 2010 (Celia)...

I take this as another sign that we are heading for an El Niño...

Yes, i would agree. Especially since the ACE index value for the 2014 Pacific Hurricane season(includes Central/Eastern Pacific) is now about 120. A value of 120 at this point a season is WELL above normal. There is still roughly 3 months left in the season. Based on current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, it is extremely likely that 2014 will be first above-normal season since 2006 or the second since 1997. To achieve an above-normal season you need at least (16) named storms, (9) hurricanes, (4) majors, and an ACE value above 130.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1534 on: August 26, 2014, 02:20:00 AM »
Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI plot issued by the BoM on August 26 2014 (Sydney time), indicating that the index has moved up to -9.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1535 on: August 26, 2014, 08:30:35 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 26th, the daily SOI value was down to -8.38, the 30 day avg was up some to -8.10, and the 90 day avg was down to -3.77. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. After tomorrow, the 30 day avg SOI values should start dropping again.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1536 on: August 26, 2014, 10:17:23 PM »
Per the attached BoM plots for the week ending August 24 2014, both the Nino 3.4, and the IOD, indices (respectively) are up; which indicates conditions are improving for a possible El Nino this year.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1537 on: August 26, 2014, 10:22:19 PM »
Per the attached plots issued by the BoM for the week ending August 24 2014, the Nino 1 and 2 indices are down; while the Nino 3 and 4, indices are up.  Indicating that while the influence of the old EKW is still dissipating, the influence of the new EKW is raising SSTA values for the Central Equatorial Pacific.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1538 on: August 28, 2014, 01:16:16 AM »
As I was traveling, I did not post yesterday's BoM 30-day moving average SOI values, so below are the values issued both yesterday and today.  I would expect the SOI values to continue dropping for the next several days:

20140727,20140825,-8.8
20140728,20140826,-8.9


edit: Here is today's plot.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2014, 02:09:47 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1539 on: August 28, 2014, 04:57:37 AM »
I've surfing all day, as a solid/very large swell is currently hitting So Cal and will continue through tomorrow. Therefore, I likely wont be posting SOI values from the long paddock site until Friday when the surf subsides. According to GFS models for SLP and precipitation, a pattern favoring negative daily SOI values is forecast to continue for the next several days. I concur with ASLR that we should see SOI values fall for the next several days. Especially since positive daily SOI values will be leaving the 30 day avg while negative daily SOI values are expected to enter.


 

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1540 on: August 28, 2014, 04:14:11 PM »
The attached Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies plot from NOAA circa August 28 2014, shows that the heat content in this critical area is steadily rising:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1541 on: August 29, 2014, 01:17:35 AM »
As expected, the following data issued by the BoM today for the 30-day moving average SOI indicates that this index has continued to drop and is now (with data through August 27 2014) -9.1:

20140729,20140827,-9.1

edit: Here is the plot.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2014, 04:30:43 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1542 on: August 29, 2014, 05:23:37 PM »
The attached image of the ECMM MJO forecast, issued August 29 2014, indicates that after several weeks of meandering, the active phase of the MJO may (or may not) move into the Maritime Continent in the next week.  Then we will need to see whether it gains any strength (as it is forecast to be very weak for the next two weeks) before eventually moving into the Western Pacific, and towards the International Dateline (possibly toward the end of September, or the beginning of October):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1543 on: August 29, 2014, 08:27:51 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 29th, the daily SOI value was down to -11.59, the 30 day avg was down to -8.82, and the 90 day avg was down to -4.71. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. The SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti, favoring negative daily SOI values continues... We should see values for the 30 day avg continue to drop for the next 3 days as negative daily SOI values are expected to replace positive daily values leaving the 30 day avg. However, its possible that we'll see another rise in 30 day avg SOI values starting up around Sep 2nd as we run into another cluster of strong negative daily SOI values scheduled to leave the 30 day avg. At this time, it looks only weak negative daily SOI values will be replacing these strong negative daily SOI values that will be leaving. This could easily change though. Also attached are Sea Level Anomalies from Aug 21(data is a bit old), which shows warm water at depth(Kelvin Wave) is moving along nicely with the leading edge/nose of our next downwelling Kelvin Wave now entering the Eastern Pacific.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1544 on: August 30, 2014, 02:00:59 AM »
Per the following BoM data of the 30-day moving average SOI, the index has moved dropped down to -9.8:

20140730,20140828,-9.8

edit: Here is the image.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2014, 02:17:33 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1545 on: August 30, 2014, 04:42:31 PM »
According to the attached ECMM MJO forecast, at least the active phase of the MJO is still headed eastward, even though it is projected to be very weak by the time that it gets to the International Dateline by Mid-September; however, such long-range MJO forecasts have a tendency to change (which in this case can only mean improvement):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1546 on: August 30, 2014, 08:46:04 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 30th, the daily SOI value was way down to -26.04, the 30 day avg was down to -10.01, and the 90 day avg was down to -5.28. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. It's interesting that SLP at Tahiti dropped to 1011 MB. While forecast models have been continuously calling for a SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti that would favor negative daily SOI values, none have been calling for SLP at Tahiti to drop this low. It will be interesting to see if strong negative daily SOI values continue, which would be a good sign. If strong negative daily SOI values continue for the next several days then the 30 day avg would drop noticeably for the next few days, then sort of stall as we pass through a cluster of strong negative daily SOI values leaving the 30 day avg. Yesterday, it looked like the 30 day avg would drop for the next few days and then rise some as we passed through the cluster of strong negative daily SOI values. We'll see.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1547 on: August 31, 2014, 03:01:38 AM »
As bigB has indicated, the daily SOI has dropped markedly, which is reflected in the following data issued by the BoM of the 30-day moving average SOI with a current value of -11.3:


20140731,20140829,-11.3

edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: August 31, 2014, 05:36:55 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1548 on: August 31, 2014, 05:05:46 PM »
One possible reason that the SOI is leaning towards the negative side at the moment is that the SPCZ is currently experiencing moderate convective activity as indicated by: (a) the first image for today of the earth surface wind map in this area; (b) the second attached image for today from Wundermap; and (c) the third image for Sept 4 from Wundermap.  After Sept. 4, Wundermap projects that the SPCZ may start to weaken.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1549 on: August 31, 2014, 08:31:05 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 31th, the daily SOI value was up to -13.47, the 30 day avg was down to -10.89, and the 90 day avg was down to -5.67. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. The daily value for today looks much more in-line with what GFS models have been suggesting. Its looking likely that the 30 day avg will drop for one more day and then slowly rise/become less negative starting Sep 2 through Sep 6. After that, its likely to stabilize but that’s too far out to predict with any real accuracy. Also attached, are high resolution RTG SSTA images from the EMC, updated August 30, which shows below avg SSTA surrounding Darwin while above avg SSTA are surrounding Tahiti. The current SSTA configuration at Darwin and Tahiti has been in place long enough now to definitely be considered (one) of contributing factors to the favorable SLP pattern seen as of late(some of the other big contributing factors are listed by ASLR). Below avg SSTA would support less than avg convection and higher than normal SLP, while above avg SSTA would support more than avg convection and  lower than normal SLP. Of Note: The last few SSTA images from the EMC, suggest that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region have warmed. It will be interesting to see if this is indeed the case when NOAA issues their weekly ENSO update tomorrow.

NOTE: I had already written this up and when I went to post it I saw ASLR's post, but the points he makes combined with the point I made, only provide a stronger overall explanation of the current favorable(for negative values) SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti.