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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1750 on: October 18, 2014, 01:50:45 AM »
The following data issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.9:

20140917,20141016,-3.9

edit: here is the plot
« Last Edit: October 18, 2014, 03:27:25 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1751 on: October 18, 2014, 08:25:11 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 18th, the daily SOI value was up to -8.38, the 30 day avg was down to -4.01, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.37. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.


bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1752 on: October 19, 2014, 01:47:56 AM »
Attached is the latest (Oct 18th) EMC high resolution daily SSTA image, along with TAO plots of zonal wind/anomalies, which show SSTA are warming in the Nino 3.4 region, except for a small pocket around 130W. The small pocket of cooler SSTA around 130W is likely attributable to the weak easterly anomalies in that area causing local upwelling (see bottom 2 plots). Notice the moderate westerly wind anomalies in the Western Pacific and especially near the Date Line. With warm SSTA closing in from the east and the west, I suspect that the cool pocket will soon be taken over. Hopefully.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2014, 08:38:08 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1753 on: October 19, 2014, 02:28:36 AM »
The attached image indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI issued by the BoM today has moved down to -4.1:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1754 on: October 19, 2014, 04:41:56 AM »
By the way, I have come across some disturbing news regarding the decline of buoys out in the tropical Pacific that track the development of El Niño.

Quote
El Niño tracking system in Pacific Ocean faces collapse

The Abbott government says it has no plans to help fund a Pacific Ocean system of buoys monitoring extreme weather patterns that is now facing collapse.

Leading ocean experts, including senior Australian scientists, will gather in California on Tuesday to discuss the "abrupt decline" over the past 18 months of data from an array of deep-water buoys.

Known as the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project, or TAO, the array of devices has been funded for about 30 years mostly by the US and Japan.

As revealed by Fairfax Media, vandalism by fishing fleets and cuts in spending on regular maintenance visits have led to a 40 per cent reduction in the flow of information from the buoys. The slide is continuing.

 "The implosion of the TAO is a real tragedy for the oceanographic and climate community," said Mike McPhaden, a principal scientist with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and former manager of the array.

The TAO, set up after a huge El Nino weather system surprised scientists in 1982-83, delivers critical real-time observation of atmospheric conditions and those of the sea down to 500 metres below the buoys. El Ninos, and their opposite pattern, La Ninas, typically shift rain east or west over the Pacific, often bringing drought or heavy rains to many parts of the world, including Australia.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/el-nino-tracking-system-in-pacific-ocean-faces-collapse-20140127-31iy3.html#ixzz2rcXqVeLd

and

Quote
El Niño monitoring system in failure mode

Nearly half of the moored buoys in the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array have failed in the last two years, crippling an early-warning system for the warming and cooling events in the eastern equatorial Pacific, known respectively as El Niño and La Niña. Scientists are now collecting data from just 40% of the array.

...

The array's troubles began in 2012, when budget cuts pushed NOAA to retire a ship dedicated to performing the annual servicing that keeps the TAO buoys in working order. According to McPhaden, NOAA's annual budget for the project stood at about US$10‒$12 million before 2012 — a figure that included around $6 million to cover the dedicated ship. In fiscal year 2013, the agency spent $2‒$3 million to charter boats for maintenance runs, but McPhaden says that these operations have not been enough to keep the system going. Meanwhile, although JAMSTEC has thus far kept its portion of the array up and running, it too is under budgetary pressure.

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582

I can't help but think that the climate change deniers in the governments of the United States and Australia are failing us all by continuously cutting funding to research that would allow continued maintenance and improvements of the buoys. It's also a threat to people's well-being to limit this kind of information. El Niño and La Niña can be vicious to agriculture and have knowingly led to famines, particularly in the 19th and early 20th centuries when they arrived without warning. And it's costly. Talk about penny-wise, pound-foolish.

The above post was made by Deep Octo back in January (when this thread first started) and its exactly how i felt about the failing TAO array situation. It's good see that NOAA and the NDBC have stepped up to the plate and fixed this extremely important tool for monitoring the ocean and atmosphere in the Equatorial Pacific region. The attached plots and image from the TAO site show the latest data return history and current status of the TAO array (as of Oct 18th). I wish I had an image showing the TAO array status 6 months ago, more than half the buoys had red “X's” over them. MAJOR repairs have been made to TAO array since then. Pretty amazing.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1755 on: October 19, 2014, 07:14:41 PM »
Latest preliminary PMEL/TAO data indicates some strengthening of the positive westerlies that now spans from 150E to 170W. The most positive anomalies are hanging around the dateline. The question is whether this will have a decent impact on the Kelvin wave or not and how long it will persist. It's also interesting to see that the far east Eastern Pacific may encounter positive wind anomalies, something that haven't been seen for about 6-7 months. The data are preliminary so we'll see if this trend continues or not.

The atmosphere seems to almost be in sync with the ocean but it goes slowly, terrible slowly. CFSv2 foresees more warming nest spring in the Nino 3.4 area. At this time at year I think we can be confident, as I know at least ASLR have said, that no El Niño will emerge now but will be arriving next year. Maybe we dodged a real sharp bullet but it won't last forever. The bullet will come, only slower and I'm quite sure that 2015 will end up being warmer than 2014!

IOD is almost positive but is forecasted to remain neutral for the next 7 months or so. PDO is positive, SOI in weak El Niño regime but still neutral, OLR near the dateline is at its most negative values since April (or beginning of June if one should be very stringent!).



Tomorrows and tuesdays releases from NOAA and BOM will be interesting! :)

//LMV

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1756 on: October 19, 2014, 07:49:38 PM »
bigB, thanks for updating on the TAO array. It's positive seeing the improvements in recent months. This is very important.

The PDO per Univesity of Washington's JISAO rose to 1.08 in September, up from 0.67 in August. This is a sign confirming what is looking like the PDO is maybe flipping to a warm phase for a longer period.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1757 on: October 19, 2014, 09:08:58 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 19th, the daily SOI value was up to -5.87, the 30 day avg was up to -3.86, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.43. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Despite GFS model projections from earlier this week, daily SOI values have not held in moderate negative territory, but at least they have remained negative. According to the latest GFS model runs, SLP at Tahiti is to drop some staring tomorrow or Tues, while SLP at Darwin remains around what it currently is. If this were to occur, more moderate negative daily SOI values would return. We'll see what happens.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1758 on: October 20, 2014, 02:04:18 AM »
The attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.6:
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Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1759 on: October 20, 2014, 12:37:21 PM »
The transition to +ve PDO values has been quite abrupt. But looking through PDO monthly values the short term behaviour seems to be more variable and chaotic with more rapid swings than ENSO, and its only when averaged over 5 or more years that some sort of consistency tends to emerge.  I certainly wouldn't rule out a swing back towards -ve PDO in the future.  This swing started from a moderately cool -1.25 in July 13, and -0.87 in October 13 to suddenly switch to +1.8 in May this year.

Some past major swings:

Mid 1998 to mid 2002 saw about 4 years of mostly negative values. PDO was -1.37 in Oct 01, and -0.31 in July 02 and shot up to 2.1 in Dec 02. This was followed by about 5 years of mostly warm PDO and ENSO conditions.

The big one in 1976. There had been no let up in the strong -ve values of PDO that included the very strong 73/74 la nina. Feb 76 was -1.85. We then saw a jump from -0.67 in June to +0.61 in July and 1.65 by Jan 77. While PDO was mostly postive, there were no major el ninos, and the occasional short period of -ve pdo up until the extreme 82/83 el nino and then +ve values of PDO were in almost total domination until 1998.

Another one was in 1957. From the mid 40s until 1956 there was a period of negative PDO comparable to the period of the early 70s, culiminating in another extreme la nina
in 1956. The pdo was -1.82 in Jan 57, and had increased to 1.76 in June of 57. Although positive PDO values only dominated for 18 months until the middle of 1958, It wasn't until mid 1961 that consistent negative PDO values returned. 57/58 saw a moderate el nino, and interesting enough the switch back to -ve PDO values in 61 was followed by a weak el nino in 63/64, and strong el nino in 65/66 and a two year el nino in 68/69/70.

We don't have a lot of PDO history to draw precedents from. We don't understand the mechanisms behind PDO very well, but if any prediction was to be made on current PDO behaviour I would be leaning towards at least a few years of +ve PDO and some el nino behaviour before any possible switch back to -ve PDO behaviour.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1760 on: October 20, 2014, 04:46:19 PM »
Per NOAA, the Niño 3.4 region SST anomaly rose to 0.5 C over the last week, indicative of weak El Niño conditions. This fluctuation into and out of El Niño conditions has persisted since May. Still we wait for the Pacific to commit.

                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week             SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 17SEP2014     21.0 0.7     25.2 0.4     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.8
 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6
 01OCT2014     21.7 1.1     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.2 0.5
 08OCT2014     21.3 0.6     25.5 0.6     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5
 15OCT2014     21.5 0.7     25.5 0.5     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1761 on: October 20, 2014, 06:47:58 PM »
The following two plots are from NOAA, with the first attached image issued today showing that the Eq Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly is degrading relatively slowly, which indicates a chance that the atmosphere could still reinforce this degrading situation.

The second attached image shows the Eq. Pacific Subsurface Temperature Anomaly for Oct 15 2014, which shows that the current EKW has break in its above average temperatures near 150W, but that there is another warm pool of subsurface water to the west of this break that is slowly moving eastward to slow try to support El Nino like conditions.  Thus it is likely that we will experience El Nino-like conditions for the near future, but it is still unclear when the next official El Nino will be declared.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Bruce Steele

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1762 on: October 20, 2014, 07:51:49 PM »
Michael Hauber, Predicting PDO is beyond my skill level but due to it's biological impacts on Northeastern Pacific fisheries it is something I watch. If I understand the following abstract correctly
stratification and warming of surface waters will increase the speed of Rossby wave propagation and as a result the interval between warm/cold PDO flips will decrease.

  Abstract
The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode (i.e., PDO), and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific (PDO center). The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center.
It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.

Fang et al 2014


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1763 on: October 21, 2014, 01:30:23 AM »
Per the following 30-day moving average SOI data issued today by the BoM, the index has moved down to -4.3 (and thus is neutral):

20140920,20141019,-4.3

edit: here is the plot
« Last Edit: October 21, 2014, 03:32:39 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1764 on: October 21, 2014, 04:34:29 PM »
The two attached plots were issued by the BoM for the week ending Oct 19 2014.  The first plot shows that the Nino 3.4 index has moved up to +0.62 (indicating that the current EKW is still surfacing); while the second plot of the IOD index shows that this weekly value is still positive (supporting of El Nino conditions) but that it has fluctuated downward.

This conditions support the idea that if the atmosphere can change to El Nino conditions in the near future then an El Nino event could begin to develop; otherwise, the current EKW (Equatorial Kelvin Wave) will dissipate and this current opportunity to develop synergy between the ocean and the atmosphere may be lost.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1765 on: October 21, 2014, 04:37:32 PM »
The attached plots of the weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively, were issued today by the BoM for the week ending on Oct 19, 2014.  These plots generally are supportive of the idea that there is better than a 50-50 chance that an El Nino event could begin to develop sooner, rather than later.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1766 on: October 21, 2014, 07:58:07 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 21st, the daily SOI value was way down to -24.88, the 30 day avg was down to -4.84, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.78. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1767 on: October 22, 2014, 01:16:28 AM »
Per the following 30-day moving average SOI data issued by the BoM today, the index has moved down to -5.0:

20140921,20141020,-5.0

edit: here is the plot
« Last Edit: October 22, 2014, 04:39:57 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Bruce Steele

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1768 on: October 22, 2014, 05:34:46 AM »
AbruptSLR , I am trying to put the Fang et al. paper into something I can use to visualize the dynamics of surface heating and rossby wave propagation. If surface waters warm they become less dense. As rossby waves along the thermocline have both downwelling and upwelling cycles relative to a fixed position, would warmer more buoyant surface waters offer less resistance to the upwelling phase and thus move faster?  Just trying to understand , assistance may be necessary.
 I think the deeper waters below the thermocline maintain density longer (relative to surface waters) so when  the upwelling phase of those waters meet the now less dense surface waters they meet less resistance and therefore move faster?
 Just to stretch this a bit further I would assume the coriolis effect remains constant while the density of waters above and below the thermocline vary quite rapidly? Those changes then can affect  the speed of the rossby waves ?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1769 on: October 22, 2014, 04:20:00 PM »
Bruce,

Those are all good questions.  Unfortunately, I do not know enough to give you a quick answer, and I do not have sufficient time (I am traveling now & work is busy) to look at the equations to see which parameters affect the Rossby waves.  If I find time in the next few days I will give you my opinions, until then good luck with your work-up.

Best,
ASLR
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― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1770 on: October 22, 2014, 05:38:22 PM »
ASLR, Just trying to get a better grip on PDO. The Fang paper is pay walled. Here is a link.
Safe travels, maybe see some fall color?

 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-013-2260-7

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1771 on: October 22, 2014, 09:20:08 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 22nd, the daily SOI value was down to -25.34, the 30 day avg was down to -5.24, and the 90 day avg was down to –8.06. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Based on GFS model guidance and current observations, 30 and 90 day avg SOI values should continue to drop through at least the end of this week. Strong negative daily SOI values may give way to more moderate negative daily SOI values in couple days, as SLP at Tahiti is expected to rise some.

viddaloo

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1772 on: October 23, 2014, 02:07:43 AM »
Just thought I'd paste this news from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, about a possible 2015 «super-niño». Go nuts! :)

As a follow-up to the possible importance of the current positive PDO, I note that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, BoM, reported today that the Nino 3.4 index for the week ending Oct 19 2014 had a value of +0.62 (while a sustained Nino 3.4 value above +0.5 indicates an El Nino event).  Furthermore, the attached CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast issued by NOAA today (Oct 21 2014) indicates a good chance that a strong El Nino event will develop by July 2015; which (if this were to occur) will present the possibility that 2015 could experience a Super El Nino before December 2015.  If a Super El Nino were to occur next year it would almost guarantee that 2015 would be the warmest year on record (as 2014 is currently on track to be warmest year on record); which would likely increase many positive feedback mechanisms into greater activity (such as GHG emissions from tropical rainforests); which would likely keep the world on (or above) the RCP 8.5 scenario.


[]

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1773 on: October 23, 2014, 03:43:14 AM »
Per the attached plot of the 30-day moving average SOI issued by the BoM today, the index has moved down to -5.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Rubikscube

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1774 on: October 23, 2014, 02:58:21 PM »
52 months have now passed since last El niño expired. That is the longest such period since the recording began in 1950 (previously, 50 months was the longest niño free period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

bassman

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1775 on: October 23, 2014, 03:12:54 PM »
Good point Rubikscube.  It is a good indication of how strong the GHG forcing is now that 2014 will be the warmest on record.  The year began with what was almost a weak La Niña and flat neutral conditions most of the year.   I'm tempted to think 2015 could break surface temp records again even without an El Niño developing.   

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1776 on: October 23, 2014, 08:18:57 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 23rd, the daily SOI value was up slightly to -24.18, the 30 day avg was down to -5.84, and the 90 day avg was down to –8.23. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1777 on: October 23, 2014, 09:19:44 PM »
Good point Rubikscube.  It is a good indication of how strong the GHG forcing is now that 2014 will be the warmest on record.  The year began with what was almost a weak La Niña and flat neutral conditions most of the year.   I'm tempted to think 2015 could break surface temp records again even without an El Niño developing.

Quickly looking at GISS numbers the difference in annual temperature from el nino to la nina is around 0.2 degrees.  So between El Nino and neutral could be half or around 0.1.  Although I think I've seen somewhere that neutral years tend to be closer to El Nino than to La Nina.  Four years forcing at a middle of the road global warming rate of 0.2/decade gives 0.08 degrees warming, so 2014 being neck and neck with 2010 is no surprise.

Generally I would expect 2015 to be significantly warmer than 2014 due to the current el nino (or almost el nino).  The usual pattern is for an el nino to have almost no effects on global temperature until maybe November or December and then shoot up to maximum impact in January before a slow cooling during the first half of the second year.  I doubt it will make much difference on global temps whether this event is a little below official el nino threshold, or whether a little above.

However note that in 2002 the temperature became quite warm in a neutral year, and the following el nino year of 2003 was cooler, so higher temperatures in 2015 are not guaranteed.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1778 on: October 23, 2014, 10:46:13 PM »
I've been looking through the ONI-index from 1950 and forward and I think following is realistic:

1) a similar evolution of the 1953 situation. The ONI-index didn't reach El Niño thresholds until DJF 52/53. During virtually the whole year of 1953 the ONI-index was between 0,6-0,8 until dropping off in spring 1954. I think that if such a situation will arise in 2015 the ONI-number will be higher. This year it seems likely that an El Niño will evolve either for OND or NDJ.

2) During the last couple of years there have been some discussions about more weather patterns with locked situations. For ex. UK experienced an extremely wet winter of 2013/2014. Why wouldn't such  phenomena also be applied to El Niño? As the oceans have been so warm it  may require a longer time period to make an El Niño coming up.

3) The majority of years after El Niño have culminated have been warmer than the year before that. The 1982/83 didn't break the record from 1980 but that is almost for sure due to a volcano eruption. I think there is a high likelihood that either 2015 or 2016 will be warmer than 2014. In addition at some point we'll leave this period of slow atmospheric warming and enter a period of rapid warming. For every single year the odds for that increases..

//LMV

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1779 on: October 24, 2014, 08:28:59 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 24th, the daily SOI value was up to -17.99, the 30 day avg was down to -6.31, and the 90 day avg was up slightly to –8.16. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. The next two daily SOI values to leave the 90 day avg are in the moderate-strong negative range, but after that there's 5 days in a row of weak positive daily SOI vales set to leave the 90 day avg. The 90 day avg may start dropping again by Monday. As for the 30 day avg, it should continue dropping through the weekend. The GFS model is calling for SLP conditions at Darwin and Tahiti that should continue to support negative daily SOI values through the weekend, in at least the weak-moderate range.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1780 on: October 24, 2014, 09:06:45 PM »
The attached TAO subsurface data from October 23, shows that: (a) the new Kelvin wave in Central Equatorial Pacific has gained some strength, with anomalies now being measured up to +3.0 deg C, (b) the warm downwelling phase of the Kelvin wave in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific is losing steam as it continues to slowly surface, and (c) there's very weak/small cool upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave (or at least a pocket of cool subsurface anomalies propagating toward the east) in between the two more modest warm downwelling phases. It seems unlikely that this cool upwelling phase (or cool pocket of subsurface anomalies) will have much of an impact on things, due to it's size, strength, and position in between the two larger warm downwelling phases.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 02:19:31 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1781 on: October 24, 2014, 11:20:58 PM »
Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI issued by the BoM yesterday, indicating that the index moved down to -5.8:

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1782 on: October 25, 2014, 01:26:07 AM »
Per the following 30-day moving average SOI data issued by the BoM today, the index has continued to decrease down to -6.0:

20140924,20141023,-6.0
« Last Edit: October 25, 2014, 03:23:17 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1783 on: October 25, 2014, 08:50:06 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 25th, the daily SOI value was up to -16.96, the 30 day avg was down to -6.87, and the 90 day avg was up slightly to –8.03. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1784 on: October 26, 2014, 02:17:23 AM »
The attached plot of the 30-day moving average SOI was issued by the BoM today and indicates that the index has moved down to -6.7:

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1785 on: October 26, 2014, 02:51:56 AM »
ASLR, Just trying to get a better grip on PDO. The Fang paper is pay walled. Here is a link.
Safe travels, maybe see some fall color?

 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-013-2260-7

Bruce,

After reviewing this matter, I have decided that my math is too rusty to answer your questions; however, I provide the accompanying sketch of an oceanic Rossby wave for those who have never seen one.

Best,
ASLR

edit: For those with sharper math skills, the following link leads to an open access on-line early release of the Fang paper:

http://159.226.119.58/aas/fileup/PDF/2013-6-15.pdf
« Last Edit: October 26, 2014, 03:00:02 AM by AbruptSLR »
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icefest

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1786 on: October 26, 2014, 02:21:16 PM »

edit: For those with sharper math skills, the following link leads to an open access on-line early release of the Fang paper:

http://159.226.119.58/aas/fileup/PDF/2013-6-15.pdf


Or PM me for the other :D
Open other end.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1787 on: October 26, 2014, 06:16:48 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 26th, the daily SOI value was down to -22.95, the 30 day avg was down to -7.83, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to –8.13. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Negative daily SOI values have held up better than expected. It looks look the 30 day avg will enter back into weak El Nino territory by tomorrow or Tuesday.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1788 on: October 27, 2014, 02:24:14 AM »
The attached indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI (issued by the BoM today) has moved down to -7.4, and while this value is still neutral it appears likely that this index will drop below -8 (into the El Nino territory) within a day or two:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1789 on: October 27, 2014, 02:33:33 AM »
ASLR, thank you for updates (and for including the parenthesis for us newbie amateurs). Question: For an El Niño to be officially declared, there must be stable values for eg NDJ — November — December — January — ie a 3–month period, right? So the earliest official start of the 2014/15 El Niño will be in November, or in January?

Edit: So is OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM, FMA the earliest possible start, or must every day exceed +0.5?
« Last Edit: October 27, 2014, 03:51:22 AM by viddaloo »
[]

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1790 on: October 27, 2014, 03:35:35 AM »
viddaloo,

There are different standards for declaring an El Nino event; however, NOAA states that to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño episode, the Nino 3.4 index must exceed a value of +0.5 for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. 

Therefore, as the Nino 3.4 index did not exceed +0.5 until mid-October 2014, an official El Nino could not be declared until mid-April 2015; however, in this case I believe that the El Nino would have been considered to start in mid-October 2014.

If someone else has a more accurate definition (or a definition by a different agency); please table it.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1791 on: October 27, 2014, 03:32:41 PM »
The following NOAA Nino index information indicates that the Nino 3.4 index for the week centered on Oct 22 2014 remained at +0.5; while the attached image of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Oct 27 2014 indicates that the heat in this area is at least stable and might be increasing (thus maintaining the possibility that an El Nino event could occur from 2014-2015):

                     Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week            SST SSTA    SST SSTA  SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
 13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014     22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4
 27AUG2014     21.3 0.8     25.4 0.4     27.2 0.4     29.2 0.5
 03SEP2014     21.7 1.2     25.3 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.2 0.5
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 17SEP2014     21.0 0.7     25.2 0.4     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.8
 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6
 01OCT2014     21.7 1.1     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.2 0.5
 08OCT2014     21.3 0.6     25.5 0.6     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5
 15OCT2014     21.5 0.7     25.5 0.5     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
 22OCT2014     21.8 0.8     25.8 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
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― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1792 on: October 27, 2014, 04:11:37 PM »
I would have attached the following image to my last post but I got distracted, so attached please find an image of the Eq. Pac Subsurface Temp. Anom. for Oct 20 2014, that confirms a second pulse of warm water is moving eastward across the International Date Line (which supports that possibility that the ocean and the atmosphere may have time to synchronize to develop a El Nino event):
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1793 on: October 27, 2014, 07:10:22 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 27th, the daily SOI value was up to -10.64, the 30 day avg was down to -8.36, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to –8.30. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1794 on: October 28, 2014, 12:14:37 AM »
As indicated by bigB's Long Paddock Station daily SOI data, the 30-day moving average SOI data issued by the BoM today shows that the index has moved into the possibly El Nino range by dropping to -8.2:

20140927,20141026,-8.2

edit: here is the plot
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 01:40:09 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1795 on: October 28, 2014, 03:03:33 AM »
ASLR, thank you for updates (and for including the parenthesis for us newbie amateurs). Question: For an El Niño to be officially declared, there must be stable values for eg NDJ — November — December — January — ie a 3–month period, right? So the earliest official start of the 2014/15 El Niño will be in November, or in January?

Edit: So is OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM, FMA the earliest possible start, or must every day exceed +0.5?

Viddaloo,

The following link leads to an article written back in late May by Michelle L'Heureux who is one of the main authors of NOAA's climate.gov ENSO blog. This article briefly covers matters such as the ONI, SOI, and El Niño “events” versus El Niño “conditions”. There are many other links provided throughout the article, which lead to other interesting blog posts and information about all things ENSO. I would highly recommend checking it out.

Link to article from NOAA's ENSO blog: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-will-we-know-when-el-ni%C3%B1o-has-arrived

Also, I agree with ASLR's reply #1811. If SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region continue to stay at or above +0.5 deg c from now until at least mid April 2015, then by early May 2015, when the FMA ONI value is issued, we'll be able to look back at the historical ONI values and see that this El Nino officially started during the OND 3 month season of 2014. Again, that's only if SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region continue to stay at or above +0.5 deg c from now until at least mid April 2015 (SIDE NOTE: typically the SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region can NOT stay above the +0.5 deg c El Nino thresh hold for 5 consecutive 3 month seasons without an ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is why the ONI is such an important tool for declaring out and out El Nino events). If not OND then NDJ, but that would be outside the historical norm for weak El Nino events based on ONI data. I guess anything is possible though, right? If the 2014 El Nino starts during the NDJ 3 month season then we wouldn't know for sure until the MAM ONI value is issued in June 2015. However, trust and believe that we'll know whether or not an El Nino event is under way long before the ONI data "officially" says so. This would be due to changes in many of the following: the walker cell, trade winds, equatorial ocean surface currents, the North Pacific jet stream configuration/storm track, SOI values, Sea level anomalies, number/strength/position of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific vs. the Atlantic, strength of the MJO, OLR, tropical and subtropical weather patterns, equatorial subsurface temp anomalies, and of course SSTA across the equatorial Pacific. As El Nino begins to take root, weak, moderate, or strong changes will begin to occur in much of the ENSO indicators that i just listed, signaling that El Nino is underway (there are other ENSO indicators and I'm sure ASLR could add to the list). Some of these changes already appear to be underway. Such as the way above avg hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific (which has been the most active since 1992) vs. the just slightly below avg hurricane season in the Atlantic, the SOI, Equatorial Pacific SSTA, Equatorial Pacific subsurface anomalies, North Pacific storm activity and the re-curving of multiple TC's in the Western Pacific, and lack of any sustained/strong easterly trade winds (just patches here and there, but overall weaker than normal with a slight bias towards weak westerly anomalies according to TAO data). I'm probably even leaving a few things out. (ANOTHER SIDE NOTE: being a surfer from So Cal, I can verify that storm activity in the gulf of Alaska has been above avg with 3 Major North Pacific storm swells hitting the US west coast so far this Fall (still a weak ridge of high pressure blocking So Cal from rain, but storm activity in the N PAC is a bit above normal. Rain is actually in the forecast for much of CA by Saturday Nov 1st. Fingers crossed). Last year we didn't see our first Major swell until Thanksgiving day. Also, former Hurricane Ana of the Central Pacific re-curved back towards North America and her post-tropical remnants are now making landfall over Canada and the Pacific Northwest. Not normal for a TC to go from the Central Pacific to the Pacific Northwest, but has happened during El Nino years. Namely hurricane Guillermo of 1997).


Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1796 on: October 28, 2014, 11:44:29 AM »
viddaloo,

There are different standards for declaring an El Nino event; however, NOAA states that to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño episode, the Nino 3.4 index must exceed a value of +0.5 for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. 

Therefore, as the Nino 3.4 index did not exceed +0.5 until mid-October 2014, an official El Nino could not be declared until mid-April 2015; however, in this case I believe that the El Nino would have been considered to start in mid-October 2014.

If someone else has a more accurate definition (or a definition by a different agency); please table it.

Best,
ASLR

The Australian BOM do not seem to have a well defined boundary that I can find.  To some extent I like this approach - is there really a significant difference between an event that is a shade over 0.5 for the required months to meet the NOAA definition and one that is a shade under the threshold.  Of course a hard boundary is useful for doing studies on how el nino years may differ from non el nino years.

In BOM materials they do mention a 0.8 degree threshold for nino 3.4 in a couple places and state that the this must be met for a sustained period, but do not define how long this is.  They also state that during an El Nino there are three other important indicators - reduction of the trade winds, increase in cloudiness near the dateline on the equator, and a sustained SOI of under -8.  In the past I have read updates from the BOM in boderline situations using the fact that some of these indicators were not indicactive of El Nino while others were as a reason for declaring that the status at the time was not El Nino.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1797 on: October 28, 2014, 11:54:56 AM »
So how much does the current global warming make to the current status?  I cannot find what the baseline period for the nino 3.4 stats I usually look at is, but I did find a source I'd never seen before state a 1985-2005 baseline (and can't find it again).  This baseline is going to be pretty close to the UAH baseline (1980-2000).  UAH suggests that over the last 6 or so months global temps have been about 0.2 to 0.3 degrees warmer than this baseline.  Would a nino3.4 value reduced by this amount be more representative of the current situation?  That would reduce the strength of the current warm event by about half and put us well short of el nino threshold and firmly into neutral territory.  However just looking at global SST charts there seems to be a reasonably well defined warm tongue shape.  We also have SOI values near threshold for El Nino.

Presumably the important aspect of nino 3.4 for an El Nino is relative, and not just the temperature of that one region.  If the nino 3.4 region warmed up by 3 degrees and the rest of the world by 5 I doubt we'd be experiencing a super el nino.  But what should nino 3.4 be measured against?  Is it the temperature difference between the nino 3.4 region and the western warm pool that drives el nino behaviour?  Or the difference between nino 3.4 and the land masses in Australia and SE Asia?  Or perhaps the Pacific as a whole?
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1798 on: October 28, 2014, 03:28:21 PM »
The first two attached images are from the BoM for the week ending Oct 26, 2014.  The plots are for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, and both indicate that while the ocean surface temperatures remain mildly favorable to support the development of an El Nino event, this weeks conditions (for both indices) are slightly less favorable than last week.

The third, attached image of the NOAA Nino 3.4 forecast issued Oct 28 2014, indicates that the behavior indicated by the BoM matches the NOAA forecast; which, if correct, indicates still further weakening of favorable conditions until January 2015, when the Nino 3.4 is forecast to become more positive:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1799 on: October 28, 2014, 03:32:16 PM »
The attached plots of the weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, were issued by the BoM today for the week ending Oct 26 2014.  In general terms these indices indicate conditions that are weakly favorable for the possible development of sustained El Nino conditions (or not):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson