Author Topic: 2014 El Nino? (Read 966592 times)

bigB · « **Reply #1800 on:** October 28, 2014, 07:23:45 PM »

Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 28th, the daily SOI value was up to -6.32, the 30 day avg was down to -8.59, and the 90 day avg was down to –8.44. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. SLP at Darwin has fallen a bit during the past few days and as a result, daily SOI values have become less negative. GFS models are now suggesting that during the next few days, SLP at Darwin is to hold or even drop a bit further, while SLP at Tahiti is to rise some. Based on the projected difference in SLP between the two regions, this would result in the return of weak positive daily SOI values, IF it actually materializes. GFS models are also suggesting that favorable (for negative daily SOI values) SLP conditions may return by this weekend, but that's a bit too far out to be believable just yet. We still have one more weak positive daily SOI value leaving the 30 day avg tomorrow, so the 30 day avg could drop for at least one more day (or more). As for the 90 day avg, we still have 3 more positive daily SOI values leaving that avg, so it's possible that the 90 day avg could drop for a few more days. We'll just have to watch and see how things play out.

The second attached image of the latest (Oct 20th) hovmoller plot for upper ocean heat anomalies, shows that we do have a very very weak upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave or at least a pocket of cooler/neutral anomalies entering the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. As mentioned before, due to its size, strength, and position, its unlikely to change things much. Maybe just cause the possible El Nino event to play the hid n' seek game for a bit longer. The New Kelvin wave in the Central Equatorial Pacific looks to be at least a strong as the last Kelvin wave (which is currently finish its surfacing process). However, unlike the last two Kelvin waves, the current downwelling phase of this Kelvin wave doesn't have nearly as strong of a cool upwelling phase ahead of it. So once it does reach the Eastern Pacific in late December or early January, it shouldn’t have to work nearly as hard to warm things up. Especially if the atmosphere continues to gently cooperate (even though the Nino 3.4 region has not remained "consistently" at or above the +0.5 deg c El Nino threshold, SSTA seem to be just warm enough to cause a minor reaction from the atmosphere).

I tend to agree with the following statement from Michael Hauber:

Quote

is there really a significant difference between an event that is a shade over 0.5 for the required months to meet the NOAA definition and one that is a shade under the threshold. Of course a hard boundary is useful for doing studies on how el nino years may differ from non el nino years.

bigB · « **Reply #1801 on:** October 28, 2014, 09:56:54 PM »

I've stumbled across this piece of information a few times in the past but never really paid close attention to it until now. The following excerpt and link is from NOAA's NCDC, which briefly explains the importance of Nino 3.4 region:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php#oni

Quote

Historically, scientists have classified the intensity of El Niño based on SST anomalies exceeding a pre-selected threshold in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific. The most commonly used region is the Niño 3.4 region, and the most commonly used threshold is a positive SST departure from normal greater than or equal to +0.5°C. Since this region encompasses the western half of the equatorial cold tongue region, it provides a good measure of important changes in SST and SST gradients that result in changes in the pattern of deep tropical convection and atmospheric circulation. The criteria, that is often used to classify El Niño episodes, is that five consecutive 3-month running mean SST anomalies exceed the threshold.

Studies have shown that a necessary condition for the development and persistence of deep convection (enhanced cloudiness and precipitation) in the Tropics is that the local SST be 28°C or greater. Once the pattern of deep convection has been altered due to anomalous SSTs, the tropical and subtropical atmospheric circulation adjusts to the new pattern of tropical heating, resulting in anomalous patterns of precipitation and temperature that extend well beyond the region of the equatorial Pacific. An SST anomaly of +0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region is sufficient to reach this threshold from late March to mid-June. During the remainder of the year a larger SST anomaly, up to +1.5°C in November-December-January, is required in order to reach the threshold to support persistent deep convection in that region.

Michael Hauber,

This image shows the different 30 year base periods for avg SST in the Nino 3.4 region. Don't know if this is what you were looking for? Here's a link too:

EDIT: just realized that this image is not relevant to what you were talking about, but the El Nino definition above is.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1802 on:** October 29, 2014, 12:22:40 AM »

Per the following 30-day moving average SOI data issued today by the BoM, the index has moved down to -8.8:

20140928,20141027,-8.8

edit: here is the plot

bigB · « **Reply #1803 on:** October 29, 2014, 03:40:24 AM »

The attached TAO plot of subsurface temps/anomalies from Oct 27, shows that: (a) the new Kelvin wave downwelling under the Central Equatorial Pacific is continuing to build, and (b) the Kelvin wave in the Eastern Pacific is quickly weakening as the downwelling phase finishes up its surfacing process. I've previously mentioned that there is what appears to be a very very weak cool upwelling phase in between these two warm downwelling phases, but its so weak that its really almost more of like a break or a gap of neutral anomalies. Also, as I've previously mentioned, Unlike the last two Kelvin waves (the big Kelvin wave from earlier this year and the one that's currently surfacing), the downwelling phase of our latest Kelvin wave doesn't really have a “legit” cool upwelling phase out in front of it. This could mean that our latest Kelvin wave may be able to make the journey across the Equatorial Pacific slightly faster than the last two Kelvin waves. In theory, this would be due to the absence of cooler denser subsurface water blocking or slowing down our newly developing Kelvin wave as it propagates towards the east. For the newbies and to minimize any confusion from all the downwelling and upwelling: Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cool phases, downwelling and warming occur in the leading portion of the Kelvin wave, and upwelling and cooling occur in the trailing portion. This can easily be seen in the hovmoller plot of equatorial upper ocean heat anomalies that i provided a few posts back. NOTE: I recently ventured into a few of the other threads on this forum, and as i began to read the posts, I was quickly humbled and realized that: (a) I hardly know anything outside the realm of basic meteorology and marine science, and (b) many of the members of this forum are extremely scientifically literate. I also realized that just as i ventured out into other threads and read about topics that I have little knowledge and understanding of, others may be doing and thinking the same thing as they venture into this El Nino thread. Therefore, I'll try to make sure that the information i provide is clear and understandable for the newbies and viewers who may not be as knowledgeable on this subject matter.

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #1804 on:** October 29, 2014, 06:26:37 PM »

Good news folks! The latest runs from GFS and ECMWF both indicates that TCs will form in Western North Pacific about 15N during the next 7 days. Today JTWC give an invest around 140-150E a low chance to develop during the next 24 hours.. All this may enhance our positive westerlies.. We'll see about that!

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1805 on:** October 29, 2014, 06:56:07 PM »

To support LMV's post, I provide the latest forecast from Cyclocane for the Western North Pacific:

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
150.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK
AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
GUAM. THE 290454Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM PGUM INDICATES SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 8 KNOTS FROM 110 DEGREES, WITH MSLP AT 1008.4MB. A 290242Z
GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."

bigB · « **Reply #1806 on:** October 29, 2014, 08:44:19 PM »

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 29th, the daily SOI value was down slightly to -7.29, the 30 day avg was down to -8.95, and the 90 day avg was down to –8.63. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. The latest GFS model runs are continuing to suggest that for the next few days, SLP (Sea Level Pressure) at Tahiti is to rise some while SLP at Darwin is to hold or drop some (this would result in weak positive daily SOI values if this were to occur, but models may be overhyping this). Even if weak negative daily SOI values continue, the 30 day avg wouldn’t drop much, due to weak negative daily SOI values that would be leaving the 30 day avg at the same time. GFS models are also continuing to suggest that by this weekend, SLP conditions at Darwin and Tahiti are to become more favorable for stronger negative daily SOI values, and even more so by early next week, as a low pressure system is forecast to build directly over Tahiti. If that were to occur, the 30 day avg drop hard due weak positive daily SOI values leaving the 30 day avg during that time. We shall see.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1807 on:** October 30, 2014, 01:12:46 AM »

Per the attached plot of the 30-day moving average SOI, issued by the BoM today, the index has moved down to -9.0:

bigB · « **Reply #1808 on:** October 30, 2014, 02:02:57 AM »

Provided in the first attachment is the latest GOES visible satellite imagery of invest 96W of the West Pacific, along with the latest GFS ensemble track and intensity guidance forecast. Most ensemble members are calling for 96W to take a relatively favorable track (towards the west) for possible westerly wind. However, the forecast (and not just the GFS model) suggests that 96W may be a tad too far north, and remain relatively weak (tropical depression or strong tropical storm strength which isn't that bad but stronger would be better) during the time period in which its wind field may possibly extend into the Kelvin wave generation area (roughly between 5N-5S and from 130E-170W). On top of that, forecast models also suggest that high pressure and enhanced trades are to build in on the equator just beneath invest 96W. If that were to occur it would snuff out any chances of beneficial westerly wind. It's still very early on and forecasts involving TC's can change in a heartbeat.

The second attachment is the CDAS SFLUX SSTA image, updated Oct 29, which shows: (a) SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region are holding, (b) the IOD is likely continuing to fall, and (c) warm SSTA may be starting to build off the coast of Chile.

bigB · « **Reply #1809 on:** October 30, 2014, 02:58:59 AM »

Attached is the CDAS SFLUX SSTA 7 day change, updated Oct 29. This should have been provided in my last post.

bigB · « **Reply #1810 on:** October 30, 2014, 06:10:47 AM »

Here's the GFS forecast from the UAlbany (courtesy Carl Schreck), which suggests that moderate easterly winds are to build on the equator underneath invest 96W, inside the Kelvin wave generation area.

bigB · « **Reply #1811 on:** October 30, 2014, 07:12:41 PM »

Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 30th, the daily SOI value was up to -0.65, the 30 day avg was up to -8.83, and the 90 day avg was down to –8.78. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Unless the daily SOI value for tomorrow comes in at roughly +18.0 or greater (which seems pretty unlikely), October will finish up with a monthly SOI value of -8.0 or slightly below.

The second attachment is of the CDAS daily Nino 3.4 index (courtesy Levi Cowan), updated Oct 30 at 06z. This particular Nino 3.4 index doesn’t always match up with that of NOAA or the BOM, but it does tend to show a similar trend. Therefore, I suggest focusing on the trend rather than exact daily values.

bigB · « **Reply #1812 on:** October 31, 2014, 12:12:01 AM »

The following excerpt is from the NHC's 2pm forecast discussion on newly formed tropical storm Vance of the Eastern Pacific:

Quote

Vance is the 20th named storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, the most number of named storms in the basin since 1992.

Something is going on here. Other than just weak El Nino conditions... ASLR???

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1813 on:** October 31, 2014, 01:41:04 AM »

Quote from: bigB on October 31, 2014, 12:12:01 AM

The following excerpt is from the NHC's 2pm forecast discussion on newly formed tropical storm Vance of the Eastern Pacific:

Quote
Vance is the 20th named storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, the most number of named storms in the basin since 1992.

Something is going on here. Other than just weak El Nino conditions... ASLR???

I think that the increased amount of tropical storms is nature's way of trying to redistribute excess energy due to global warming. If this is true then we can expect increasing storminess in the future. Furthermore, I believe that increasing global warming will contribute to an increasing frequency of El Nino like behavior in the Equatorial Pacific.

Separately, the following data of the 30-day moving average SOI provided today by the BoM indicates that the index has moved down to -9.1:

20140930,20141029,-9.1

bigB · « **Reply #1814 on:** October 31, 2014, 02:22:35 AM »

ASLR,

I would agree. I was reading some of your other posts in another thread (not sure which one), but I believe you stated something along the lines of global warming and climate change are happening much more rapidly (and worse) than most people realize. I'm becoming convinced of that. It's an upsetting and frightening thing. Much more than i ever realized. The information you provide is very informative.

Thanks,
bigB

Bruce Steele · « **Reply #1815 on:** October 31, 2014, 05:03:48 AM »

Ditto BigB
How many people in North America watch the Southern Hemisphere ? And know what happens there will determine much on the long term view on things? AbruptSLR posted on the ASLR and the $ of C
page today. It should be apparent that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica will soon
( within decades ) contribute more to SLR than Glacial melt . Big change , big consequences and the
Southern Hemisphere , Southern oceans ventilation changes , ozone contribution to ACC drivers , and basal melt of the ice are something to watch. Thanks ASLR. and thanks BigB

Michael Hauber · « **Reply #1816 on:** October 31, 2014, 09:02:35 AM »

The current contribution from ice sheets is already close to that from glaciers - 0.6 vs 0.76.

(link)

bigB · « **Reply #1817 on:** October 31, 2014, 07:44:21 PM »

Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 31st, the daily SOI value was up to +10.70, the 30 day avg was up to -8.25, and the 90 day avg was up to –8.70. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. As expected, over the past few days SLP at Tahiti has risen some while SLP at Darwin has fallen, resulting in daily SOI values moving back into positive territory. Based on GFS model guidance, negative daily SOI values may return by Sunday.

The second attachment is the CDAS daily Nino 3.4 index (courtesy Levi Cowan), updated Oct 31st at 06z. Per this data, the Nino 3.4 index has moved up to +0.567.

The third attachment is the TAO plots of equatorial subsurface temps/anomalies, data valid through Oct 30th, which shows that the latest Kelvin wave under the Central Equatorial Pacific is continuing to build, with a small embedded pocket of +3.5-4.0 deg anomalies.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1818 on:** November 01, 2014, 02:54:34 AM »

The attached plot indicates that the BoM's 30-day moving average have moved up to -8.6:

bigB · « **Reply #1819 on:** November 01, 2014, 08:43:12 PM »

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 1st, the daily SOI value was down to +3.37, the 30 day avg was up to -7.98, and the 90 day avg was up to –8.47. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1820 on:** November 02, 2014, 01:27:52 AM »

The attached BoM 30-day moving average SOI plot indicates that the index has moved up to -8.0 (which is the borderline between neutral and El Nino conditions):

bigB · « **Reply #1821 on:** November 02, 2014, 09:44:41 PM »

Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 2nd, the daily SOI value was down to -2.99, the 30 day avg was down to -8.06, and the 90 day avg was up to –8.20. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. As expected, negative daily SOI values have returned. This would be thanks to a developing area of low pressure currently located just to the west of Tahiti. That area of low pressure is expected to eventually pass almost directly over Tahiti by late Monday or Tuesday. If that were to occur, it would likely result in moderate-strong negative daily SOI values. We're currently moving through a stretch of mostly weak positive daily SOI values exiting the 30 day avg. Therefore, if current projections hold true, I suspect that the 30 day avg will drop at least through Thursday. The 90 day avg is a bit more tricky, moderate-strong negative daily SOI values will be exiting the 90 avg for the next few days with weaker negative daily values set to begin exiting by Wednesday. Therefore, the 90 day avg may continue to rise for a few more days, but then possibly start dropping again by Wednesday.

The second attachment is of the CDAS SFLUX daily SSTA image and Nino 3.4 index (courtesy Levi Cowan), updated Nov 2 at 06Z. Per this data, the Nino 3.4 region is holding steady at +0.586. We'll soon see if the trend in this data is indeed similar to that of NOAA and the BOM when they update their weekly value for the Nino 3.4 index tomorrow (for NOAA) and Tuesday (for the BOM).

Provided in the third attachment are the TAO plots of equatorial subsurface temps/anomalies (data valid through Nov 1). The bottom plot shows that the Kelvin wave currently moving through the Central Pacific, now has an even more defined pocket of +4.0 deg C anomalies embedded in its core. Based on current observations, the downwelling phase of this Kelvin wave should begin to reach the Galapagos Islands by sometime in December, providing another burst of warm anomalies. It appears that weak (+1.0 to +2.0 deg C) warm subsurface anomalies will be surfacing until then.

bigB · « **Reply #1822 on:** November 03, 2014, 01:11:46 AM »

Since it's back online, attached is the latest OSPO SSTA image for Oct 30th, which just like other recent SSTA data, shows that the cool anomalies that have been visible off the coast of Peru and Chile all year have faded some and are being replaced with warm anomalies.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1823 on:** November 03, 2014, 03:34:24 AM »

The first attached plot of the 30-day moving average SOI issued by the BoM today indicates that the index has stayed constant at -8.0:

The second attached plot issued today by NOAA indicates that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom. has drifted slightly upward:

Both indicate that a weak El Nino may (or may not) develop in the 2014-2015 season.

deep octopus · « **Reply #1824 on:** November 03, 2014, 04:50:03 PM »

Niño 3.4 index up to 0.6 C as of last week.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
24SEP2014 21.2 0.8 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.4 29.3 0.6
01OCT2014 21.7 1.1 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.3 29.2 0.5
08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5
15OCT2014 21.5 0.7 25.5 0.5 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7
22OCT2014 21.8 0.8 25.8 0.8 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7
29OCT2014 21.8 0.6 25.8 0.9 27.3 0.6 29.4 0.8

Attached is the latest SST anomaly chart produced by OSPO, for November 3rd.

bigB · « **Reply #1825 on:** November 03, 2014, 07:42:39 PM »

Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 3rd, the daily SOI value was down to -9.74, the 30 day avg was down to -8.64, and the 90 day avg was up to –8.03. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

Bruce Steele · « **Reply #1826 on:** November 04, 2014, 04:00:58 AM »

Does anyone know what conditions can drive the Aluetian low into lower latitudes? The forecasts are for more of the North Pacific high we know so well from last year although super-typhoon Nuri may drive a very strong Aleutian low forming next week.

http://mashable.com/2014/11/02/super-typhoon-nuri-strongest-storm-2014/

http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/images/ElNinoandEffectonPacific.html

The Aleutian Low in the above link just doesn't seem to show up in the forecasts.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1827 on:** November 04, 2014, 03:42:26 PM »

The BoM posted the attached plot of the 30-day moving average SOI, yesterday, indicating that on Nov 4th (Sydney time) the index had moved down to -8.7:

bigB · « **Reply #1828 on:** November 04, 2014, 10:32:49 PM »

Typhoon Nuri of the Western Pacific is expected to re-curve and then merge with a frontal low moving off Kamchatka later this work week, transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. The storm is then expected to quickly track into the Bering Sea where over the weekend it may possibly strengthen into one of the strongest storms on record for that area (see 1st attachment using images obtained from Surfline.com, which show the projected wind speed, surf height, and pressure of possible extratropical storm Nuri on Saturday, Nov 8th). It appears that this will at least in the short term, amplify the ridge of high pressure over the US west coast (see 2nd attached image from Stormsurf.com of the 96 hr forecast for the North Pacific jet stream). For a more in depth explanation of Nuri's effects on the the jet stream and US weather, please see the following link:

http://mashable.com/2014/11/04/how-super-typhoon-nuri-increases-the-risk-of-extreme-weather-in-north-america/

Bruce Steele,

The Aleutian Low appears to be split into two centers, one center over near Kamchatka and the other in the gulf of Alaska. Also, high pressure is currently positioned in the Central North Pacific and off the coast of California. This pattern is very typical of a weak Aleutian Low. It appears that Nuri may soon play a part in helping the Aleutian Low restrengthen and return to its normal location near/above the Aleutian Islands.

bigB · « **Reply #1829 on:** November 04, 2014, 10:35:53 PM »

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 4th, the daily SOI value was down to -11.46, the 30 day avg was down to -9.32, and the 90 day avg was up to –7.95. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

Bruce Steele · « **Reply #1830 on:** November 04, 2014, 11:45:16 PM »

BigB, I was hoping maybe for something to change/shift out that Pacific High off of Calif. Looks like Nuri will only intensify or prolong it.

"Drier warmer conditions West " Not the harbinger of
El Nino I was hoping for. Looks like Atlanta and not L.A. in the storm track.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1831 on:** November 05, 2014, 12:28:15 AM »

Per the following data issued by the BoM today the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -9.3:

20141005,20141103,-9.3

Here is the plot:

bigB · « **Reply #1832 on:** November 05, 2014, 03:12:32 AM »

Bruce Steele,

Yes, it appears that Nuri will amplify the ridge over the US west coast. However, believe it or not, this is actually very common and almost to be expected for strong re-curving TC's of the Western Pacific during this time of year (Sep through early Nov). Even more so during El Nino years than La Nina years. (SIDE NOTE: Being a surfer from So Cal, every time this happens we get good surf under typically good conditions. Good surf from the storm and good conditions as the high pressure keeps the weather away. Therefore, I've watched this happen a number of times, but this time it looks to be a bit stronger I must admit. Almost Superstorm Sandy like). I suspect that as far as the Jet Stream and Nuri are concerned, this is just a short term amplification of the ridge and that once the energy moves down stream/settles down, and the Aleutian Low is left in a strengthened state once again, a more normal storm track will return. It may be a few weeks though. We'll see, but I'm fairly confident of this. In the meantime, the following abstract and excerpt are from an interesting paper that discusses the ENSO-typhoon hypothesis (which has nothing do with Nuri, but points out that W PAC typhoons are more likely to take a similar track to Nuri's during El Nino conditions), by James B. Elsner and Kam-biu Liu (2003):

http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerLiu2003.pdf

Quote

Abstract: Modern typhoon data and historical documents from Guangdong Province, southern China, are analyzed and found to support the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–typhoon hypo- thesis. The hypothesis states that tropical cyclone formation during an El Niño event shifts eastward, with typhoons tending to recurve north, staying away from China. From the comprehensive but short modern record, typhoon tracks are grouped into 3 distinct clusters based on geographic position at maximum and terminal typhoon intensities. The majority of typhoons originate between 110 and 170° E longitude in the latitude belt between 8 and 25° N. In general, typhoons take 1 of 3 paths away from this genesis region — a westerly path between latitudes (straight moving), a west-northwesterly path (recurving), or a north-oriented path that keeps them out to sea. Straight-moving typhoons are a significant threat to the Philippines, southern China, and Vietnam, whereas recurving typhoons occasionally threaten Japan, Korea, and northern China. The number of straight-moving typhoons, when grouped by year, is found to be significantly positively correlated with the number of landfalls over China south of the Tropic of Cancer. Thus, the abundance of straight-moving typhoons is a good indicator of the typhoon threat to portions of southern China. Moreover, the number of straight-moving typhoons is correlated with the ENSO cycle. A long annual time-series (1600–1909) of typhoon landfall counts from Guangdong, extracted from historical documents together with tree- ring proxy records of the ENSO cycle, provide data that independently support this relationship

Excerpt: When the equatorial Pacific SSTs are higher than normal (El Niño events), more typhoons originate east of 160° E, and there is a tendency for typhoons to recurve toward higher latitude. In contrast, when the equatorial Pacific waters are colder than normal (La Niña events), more typhoons are noted over the South China Sea, and there is a tendency for typhoons to change little in latitude en route toward southern China. The present results lend support to the hypothesis that the odds of a typhoon striking populous southern China are conditional on the ENSO cycle.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1833 on:** November 05, 2014, 02:37:35 PM »

I have been traveling & I will travel today; so here are the Nino3.4 and the IOD indices issued yesterday for the week ending Nov 2 2014. These indicate that the chance of an El Nino are improving as the Nino3.4 index is +0.71:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1834 on:** November 05, 2014, 02:40:25 PM »

The attached Nino 1, 2, 3, and 4 indices issued yesterday by the BoM are for the week ending Nov 2 2014, and they generally support the idea that an El Nino event is developing now:

bigB · « **Reply #1835 on:** November 05, 2014, 10:59:06 PM »

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 5th, the daily SOI value was down to -15.08, the 30 day avg was down to -9.81, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.95. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Based on recent observations and GFS model guidance, negative daily SOI values will likely continue through the weekend. The 30 day avg is likely to drop to near -11.0 during that time. The 90 day avg may continue to drop as well, but likely at a slower pace. Things may change up as we head into next week. We may see the return of positive daily SOI values, which would coincide with a decent stretch of moderate negative daily SOI values exiting the 30 day avg. If that were to occur then 30 day avg SOI values would steadily rise. PLEASE NOTE: I will not be posting the Long Paddock SOI values on a daily basis anymore. There's really no need to do so. With less activity in this thread now, it seems that the last few pages have been mostly made up ASLR and myself posting SOI values back to back. I do believe it's important to view both sets of SOI data as they each have their own benefits. Therefore, I will continue to post the Long Paddock values at least twice a week along with a short range outlook (similar to the above outlook).

Thanks,
bigB

ASLR,

Safe travels!

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1836 on:** November 06, 2014, 06:59:06 AM »

Per the attached plot issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -9.9:

wili · « **Reply #1837 on:** November 06, 2014, 07:01:54 AM »

Shit!

JayW · « **Reply #1838 on:** November 06, 2014, 11:26:40 AM »

Apologies for not engaging more, life's been busy, but in good ways

. And, winter storm tracking season started early for me with parts of my state receiving record snow fall as much 20+ inches. As one who enjoys winter storms in the northeast, ENSO can have an influence. Last winter saw very little involvement of subtropical moisture with storms. I'm just a weather hobbyist, but it seems like the subtropical jet is trying to get going this year, a sign of ENSO warming?

Update from the BoM

Quote

Warm tropical Pacific Ocean, but ENSO remains neutral
Issued on Wednesday 5 November 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Overall, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed over the past two months, and the Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, but indicators generally remain in the neutral range. The existence of warmer-than-average water in the tropical Pacific sub-surface supports a continuation of the current near-El Niño conditions.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to persist. Three of eight models reach El Niño thresholds in January 2015, and two remain just shy of thresholds. Australian rainfall and temperature patterns show some El Niño-like impacts, with the country generally warmer and drier than usual over recent months. Warmer central tropical Pacific waters late in the year typically result in warmer and drier weather for parts of eastern Australia, an increase in bushfire risk in the south, and average to below-average numbers of tropical cyclones in the Australian region.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml]
[url]http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml[/url]

bassman · « **Reply #1839 on:** November 06, 2014, 11:43:55 AM »

MEI is in for Sept/OCT at .36, down from .5 for Aug/Sept. Can someone explain why it would be so low at this point with more El Niño like conditions developing. Also, the warmest OCT sea surface temps have just been recorded according to the MET office. How can the MEI index still be so low?

deep octopus · « **Reply #1840 on:** November 06, 2014, 03:27:48 PM »

Attached is the latest SST anomaly chart from OSPO for November 6th. The Pacific continues its attempt to form a cohesive ribbon of warmer-than-average water along the equator. This has the appearance of a weak El Niño.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1841 on:** November 06, 2014, 04:50:00 PM »

Quote from: bassman on November 06, 2014, 11:43:55 AM

MEI is in for Sept/OCT at .36, down from .5 for Aug/Sept. Can someone explain why it would be so low at this point with more El Niño like conditions developing. Also, the warmest OCT sea surface temps have just been recorded according to the MET office. How can the MEI index still be so low?

bassman,

You are referring to the Nov 5 MEI Sept/Oct value of 0.36 given in the following link:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

However, this same Nov 5 2014 update includes the following quote, and the portion in italics answers your question:

Quote: "With the MEI indicating continued El Niño-like conditions, one can find quite a few key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure). A majority of them flag El Niño conditions.
Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) indicate unusually high sea level pressure (P) north of Australia, high sea surface (S) temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced cloudiness (C) over the south-central tropical Pacific. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) flag enhanced easterlies (U) west of the Phillippines, as well as enhanced northerlies (V) north of the Phillippines. All of these anomalies are consistent with El Niño, located either over the central or western Pacific basin. while anomalously cold air temperatures (A) are found east of Australia. All of these anomalies are consistent with El Niño.
On the other hand, a small patch of high sea level pressure (P) east of Tahiti, westerly anomalies (U) close to Central America, southerly anomalies (V) south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm sea surface temperatures (S) east of Australia is more consistent with La Niña than with El Niño. During September-October only the air temperature field (A) is not showing any significant anomalies flagging either ENSO-phase."

Furthermore, the attached NOAA observes Nino sea surface temperatures vs the climatology curve shows that while the Nino 3.4 has strengthened from Sept to Oct. the other indices have fluctuated, and as stated in italicized text above, the P, U, V, and S fields in various parts of the Pacific Basin are similarly fluctuating into La Nina like behavior. We still have a ways to go before we are sure that strong El Nino conditions (and not just in the Nino 3.4 area) are established around the Pacific Basin.

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #1842 on:** November 06, 2014, 06:32:26 PM »

Todays daily value from Longpaddock was down to -27,17 which I suppose is among the lowest values this year? Anyone who knows if that's the case?

I one wants to find some interesting signs it would be that most recent PMEL/TAO graph shows a minor positive anomaly around 155W. If this trend continues the next couple of days we should see the warm pool in the pacific about 150 m down the subsurface to gather some strength and be pushed eastward.

Most recent NOAA forecast for U850 indicates positive anomalies for next week or so.

Right now it feels like we are just waiting for something more visible to happen..

crandles · « **Reply #1843 on:** November 06, 2014, 07:11:06 PM »

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: There is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is
favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

bigB · « **Reply #1844 on:** November 06, 2014, 09:50:08 PM »

Provided in the first attachment is the latest CDAS global SSTA map, and Nino 3.4 index (courtesy Levi Cowan), both updated Nov 6th at 06Z. Per this data, the Nino 3.4 region is currently at +0.705.

EDIT: Just took down the OSPO SSTA map for today as I just realized that Deep Octo already posted it.

LMV,

Just quickly skimming over the daily values for this year from the Long Paddock, I believe -35.83 was the lowest value of the year back on May 6. We've had a few other negative daily values in the -30 or below range this year, and several near what we saw today. Today's low value is thanks to a low pressure system that is diving south over Tahiti. SLP at Darwin has also come up some as well. This made for a strong value. However, these conditions are only expected to continue for a few more days with SLP at Tahiti starting to rise once again by early next week (nothing too bad, but notice the moderate negative daily SOI values that will be exiting the 30 day avg around that same time). Anyways, here's a link to the historical daily SOI values using the Long Paddock's base period (1887-1989). Also, the Long Paddock site provides the daily SOI values under the BOM's base period (1933-1992) as well.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

Rubikscube · « **Reply #1845 on:** November 06, 2014, 11:53:23 PM »

According to the link provided by BigB, -85.72 (31th May 1997) seems to be the lowest one-day SOI value since 1991, so it is perhaps a little bit early to pop the champagne just yet. On the other end of the scale you find +74.55 (1st April 2011).

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1846 on:** November 07, 2014, 12:54:07 AM »

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -10.6:

20141007,20141105,-10.6

Edit: Here is the plot

bigB · « **Reply #1847 on:** November 07, 2014, 02:10:40 AM »

Attached are two images from Surfline.com showing the SLP, wind speed, and precipitation forecast for Friday, Nov 6 at 12Z (top image), and Wednesday, Nov 12 at 12Z (bottom image). Notice when looking at the GFS forecast for tomorrow at 12Z, there's a weak area of low pressure almost over Tahiti embedded in the currently weak SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone). The SPCZ can easily be spotted as the the yellow, orange, and red colors showing projected precipitation and the lower SLP in between the two larger areas of high pressure to south on either side of Tahiti. Now notice when looking at the GFS forecast for Wednesday, Nov 12th at 12Z, the low pressure and SPCZ have weakened/faded, as the high pressure system that was located to the southwest of Tahiti (in the top image) has migrated towards the east (normal direction that high and low pressure systems typically move in the S PAC), causing SLP at Tahiti to rise. If this were to occur, we would either see daily SOI values return to weak negative territory or even become slightly positive (this is just according to todays forecast and is obviously subject to change). I have not included Darwin in this post as SLP at Darwin has been and is expected to stay relatively stable (Note that when looking at daily SLP readings from the Long Paddock site, daily SLP readings a Darwin don’t fluctuate nearly as much as they do at Tahiti). Also, I have found that the GFS forecast for SLP at Darwin and Tahiti for12Z (and only 12Z), corresponds well with the daily SLP readings issued by the Long Paddock, which is why I'm using the forecasts for 12Z in this post. Other times such as 06Z, 18Z, etc.. don’t seem to correspond very well at all with daily readings issued by Long Paddock, making it near impossible to predict or even tell what the SOI might do. SLP fluctuates slightly throughout the day due to ever changing weather conditions, and the GFS model seems to obviously factor this in (though I don’t know why the 12Z forecast is the only time that works for forecasting SLP readings in regards to the Long Paddock). If you're able to get a good idea of the possible SLP readings, then you're able to get a good idea of what the possible future daily SOI values might be, which then of course gives you a good idea of what the 30 and 90 day avg might do. I have found this method to work about 65-70% of time for up to 4-5 days out.

Rubikscube,

Very much agreed, -27 is not all that low when looking at the historical data. Many other years, even La Nina years have seen daily values below -27. However, it's all about the long term trend (say over a few months). You could easily see very strong negative daily values for a few days due to a tropical cyclone passing right over Tahiti (as the low pressure from the cyclone would drop the bottom out of daily readings), while at the same time high pressure happens to be passing over Darwin. Such a difference in SLP between the two regions would cause daily SOI values to drop into the -30's or -40's, but only for a short time (a week or less). This is why ASLR, myself, and others have emphasized on the importance of the 30 and 90 day avg as they filter that problem out (daily and weekly spikes due to weather and even the 30 day avg SOI values must remain negative for several months). If one were to look at the table of SOI values I usually provide, one will notice that the 90 day avg is in the largest font size. That's because that's the most important value provided in determining the long term trend. If the 90 day avg is at or below -8.0 for even a month it would be suspicious (it takes a lot to get the 90 day avg below -8, so much so that it hasn’t been since 2010). That suggests that overall, SLP at Darwin is slightly higher than normal and SLP at Tahiti is slightly lower than normal. Daily SOI values do have their importance. If you start seeing negative daily values week after week after week then one starts to wonder. Since the end of June 2014, the 30 day avg has not left negative territory (but has been somewhat weak at times) this suggests ENSO-neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Something is going on and unlike 2012, it's not fading out, but its pretty weak.

JayW · « **Reply #1848 on:** November 07, 2014, 11:49:59 AM »

BigB,

I'm no GFS expert, but with tracking winter storms I rarely use the 06z and 18z runs, only to notice potential significant shifts. I think they are run in basically the same data ingest the 0z and 12z respectively, sometimes a RAOB input or two is updated, but it seems minimal.

I'm sure many are aware of this, but the parallel GFS, that is scheduled to go operational December 9 (delayed at least once) is available with limited parameters. Time will tell if it's an improvement, better resolution the very least.

I chose this image because it captures the amazing Bering Sea storm.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/

deep octopus · « **Reply #1849 on:** November 07, 2014, 06:43:49 PM »

Quote from: bigB on November 06, 2014, 09:50:08 PM

Provided in the first attachment is the latest CDAS global SSTA map, and Nino 3.4 index (courtesy Levi Cowan), both updated Nov 6th at 06Z. Per this data, the Nino 3.4 region is currently at +0.705.

Looks as though the updated index is +0.713 C at Nov 6th 18Z. Throughout the basin, warmer water is broadening. With the atmosphere apparently responding, we may finally have our bona fide El Niño starting up.

Attached is the OISST anomaly chart for November 6th. I haven't seen this much orange and red in the equatorial Pacific since 2010.

News:

Author Topic: 2014 El Nino? (Read 966592 times)