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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1000 on: September 08, 2014, 12:06:03 PM »
Update for the week to September 6th

The current 5 day mean is on 5,310,360km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,229,990km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,056,700km2, an increase from -1,046,530km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,174,700km2, a change from +1,136,990km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -34.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -33.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -40.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -12.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -15.7k/day.

The loss in August was the 16th smallest on record. The change so far this September is the 18th most negative on record. For September to achieve the largest gain, a daily increase of 38.0k/day is required, while the largest loss requires -6.1k/day, with an averaged September increase requiring +14.8k/day.





« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 01:32:34 PM by BornFromTheVoid »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1001 on: September 08, 2014, 04:03:59 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Tue: -23k (-)
Wed: -6k

Small regional changes only, area and extent. Area would have had an uptick, but for the decline in "lake ice".

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-07 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3854.7   -2.5  -400.8    327.4   -5.7  -108.7     10.8   +1.3  -243.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    89.1   +2.6  -128.7    114.2   +5.2   +71.8    159.8   +2.0   -61.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    22.0   -3.8   -39.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     12.2   -2.4   -18.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   483.2  +10.9   +86.7    148.8   -0.0  -111.1      8.1   +5.5  -126.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    205.8  -29.7   +69.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5230.3  +13.0 -1081.0

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2940.0   +6.7  -504.3    102.8   -5.2  -175.5      4.9   +0.1  -148.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    38.1   -0.1   -85.7     54.2   -1.7   +36.5     79.5   +3.4   -27.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    12.2   -1.8   -18.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.6   -1.1    -6.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   268.8   +5.7   +34.0     78.4   +0.9   -75.6      1.8   +0.9   -70.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     97.6  -10.0   +38.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3586.2   +7.7 -1041.8

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1002 on: September 08, 2014, 04:50:04 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.606 - 0.023 -.006 = 3.577

3.584 / 3.577 is 8th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

Next target is 3.554 so requires a further drop of 0.023 (13 of last 25 years 52% do larger subsequent declines.)
Following target is 3.425 so requires a further drop of 0.152 (5 of last 25 years 20% do larger subsequent declines.)

compared with same day of year:
2012.6876  -2.3790116   2.3411705
2011.6876  -1.7921722   2.9283357
2007.6876  -1.7839644   2.9365435
2008.6876  -1.7166265   3.0035558
2010.6876  -1.6483784   3.0721295
2009.6876  -1.2400134   3.4804945
2013.6876  -1.1454370   3.5750709
2014_______________3.577
2002.6876  -0.6558310   4.0646768

Remains 8th lowest for day. (But very close to 7th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably from 6th lowest.)
Down to 1236k above 2012.

Losses from day .6876 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.046   3.531 (7th lowest)
2006   0.238   3.339 (6th lowest)
2007   0.000   3.577 (8th lowest)
2008   0.000   3.577 (8th lowest)
2009   0.056   3.521 (7th lowest)
2010   0.000   3.577 (8th lowest)
2011   0.024   3.553 (7th lowest)
2012   0.107   3.470 (7th lowest)
2013   0.021   3.556 (8th lowest)
      
07+Average____   0.030   3.547 (7th lowest)
07+Average+3sd   0.300   3.277 (6th lowest)
07+Average+2sd   0.210   3.367 (6th lowest)
07+Average+sd_   0.120   3.457 (7th lowest)
07+Average-sd_   -0.061   3.638 (8th lowest)
07+Average-2sd   -0.151   3.728 (8th lowest)
07+Average-3sd   -0.241   3.818 (8th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.11 using just post 2006 years.
Note that I am now using the last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.071 and standard deviation of 0.090

Typical reductions using 1sd range results in 7th to 8th lowest area, using 2sd range leads to 6th to 8th lowest area, and using 3sd deviation range leads to 6th to 8th lowest area.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1003 on: September 09, 2014, 04:11:10 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Wed: -6k (-)
Thu: -39k

That is mostly CAB and ESS (-26k and -18k).

Measured by extent is is the ESS that does a big drop of -42k.

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-07 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-08 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3845.1   -9.6  -407.0    285.9  -41.5  -148.7     11.5   +0.6  -243.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    92.9   +3.8  -123.2    114.9   +0.6   +73.1    159.1   -0.6   -62.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    25.9   +3.8   -35.9      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     12.2   +0.0   -17.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   472.8  -10.3   +77.7    147.6   -1.3  -109.4     12.4   +4.3  -120.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    207.9   +2.1   +72.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5180.3  -50.0 -1117.9

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2914.4  -25.6  -532.2     85.2  -17.6  -193.2      5.2   +0.3  -148.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    36.9   -1.2   -86.5     54.8   +0.5   +37.3     80.7   +1.2   -27.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    14.0   +1.8   -16.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.4   -0.2    -6.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   266.7   -2.1   +32.6     75.7   -2.7   -77.1      2.9   +1.1   -69.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    101.9   +4.3   +43.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3541.8  -44.4 -1087.3

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1004 on: September 09, 2014, 04:21:51 PM »
IJIS Extent:
5,027,268 km2 (08 September)
Down 9,421,148 km2 (65.21%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,849,813 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 8,003 km2 from previous day.
Down 185,814 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -26,545 km2).
Down 190,994 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -23,874 km2).
498,172 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
577,901 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
165,468 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,726,473 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.38% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.58%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (22.31%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (32.27%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,589,129 km2 (08 September [Day 0.6849])
Down 9,898,208 km2 (73.39%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
1,355,120 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 17,014 km2 from previous day.
Down 117,401 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -16,772 km2).
Down 188,247 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -23,531 km2).
360,552 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
491,651 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
17,457 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,295,368 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
8th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.78% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.37%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.77%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.92%) have been among the lowest three on record.

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1005 on: September 09, 2014, 04:53:36 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.589 - 0.006 - 0.039 = 3.544

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.584 is 8th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

Projected 3.544, if it does go below 3.554, is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

Next target is 3.425 so requires a further drop of 0.119 (7 of last 25 years 28% do larger subsequent declines.)

compared with same day of year:
2012.6904  -2.3588848   2.3682005
2011.6904  -1.7971801   2.9230022
2007.6904  -1.7620231   2.9581592
2008.6904  -1.6923804   3.0347049
2010.6904  -1.6190480   3.1011343
2009.6904  -1.2955848   3.4245975
2014_______________3.544
2013.6904  -1.1397730   3.5804093

To 7th lowest for day from 8th lowest. (But close to 6th and 8th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably.)
Down to 1176k above 2012.

Losses from day .6904 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.051   3.493 (7th lowest)
2006   0.294   3.250 (6th lowest)
2007   0.000   3.544 (7th lowest)
2008   0.000   3.544 (7th lowest)
2009   0.000   3.544 (7th lowest)
2010   0.024   3.520 (7th lowest)
2011   0.018   3.526 (7th lowest)
2012   0.134   3.410 (6th lowest)
2013   0.026   3.518 (7th lowest)
      
07+Average____   0.029   3.515 (7th lowest)
07+Average+3sd   0.323   3.221 (6th lowest)
07+Average+2sd   0.225   3.319 (6th lowest)
07+Average+sd_   0.127   3.417 (6th lowest)
07+Average-sd_   -0.069   3.613 (Projected 3.544 is 7th lowest)
07+Average-2sd   -0.167   3.711 (Projected 3.544 is 7th lowest)
07+Average-3sd   -0.265   3.809 (Projected 3.544 is 7th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.13 using just post 2006 years.
Note that I am now using the last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.073 and standard deviation of 0.098

Typical reductions using 1sd range results in 6th to 7th lowest area, using 2sd range leads to 6th to 7th lowest area, and using 3sd deviation range leads to 6th to 7th lowest area.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1006 on: September 10, 2014, 01:16:27 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,991,621 km2 (09 September)
Down 9,456,795 km2 (65.45%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,814,166 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 35,647 km2 from previous day.
Down 208,536 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -29,791 km2).
Down 226,641 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -25,182 km2).
525,011 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
567,154 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
160,018 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,709,539 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.37% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.56%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (22.22%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (32.14%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,576,694 km2 (09 September [Day 0.6876])
Down 9,910,644 km2 (73.48%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
1,342,684 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 12,435 km2 from previous day.
Down 108,511 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -15,502 km2).
Down 200,682 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -22,298 km2).
363,517 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
478,013 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
1,623 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,235,523 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
8th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.76% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.33%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.75%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.84%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1007 on: September 10, 2014, 04:14:51 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Thu: -39k (-)
Fri: -63k

That is mostly CAB, with help from a decline in "lake ice" (-14k).

Measured by extent is is the ESS and CAB that contribute (-26k and -15k).

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-09 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3830.2  -15.0  -419.6    259.6  -26.3  -174.2      9.6   -1.9  -246.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    89.6   -3.3  -125.0    115.5   +0.6   +74.0    164.7   +5.6   -58.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    30.8   +4.9   -31.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     16.4   +4.2   -12.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   456.3  -16.5   +61.4    148.2   +0.6  -105.8     13.6   +1.2  -118.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    165.1  -42.8   +29.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5134.5  -45.8 -1155.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2876.0  -38.4  -573.8     77.0   -8.2  -202.6      4.6   -0.6  -150.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    36.9   +0.0   -86.1     55.2   +0.4   +37.7     85.1   +4.3   -24.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    16.0   +2.0   -15.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.9   +1.5    -4.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   257.4   -9.3   +23.1     75.7   +0.1   -75.6      3.2   +0.4   -68.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     88.2  -13.7   +29.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3494.2  -47.7 -1139.8

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1008 on: September 10, 2014, 07:13:44 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.577 - 0.039 - 0.0690.063 = 3.4693.475

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.584 is 8th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

Projected 3.4693.475, seems certain to go below 3.554, is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

Next target is 3.425 so requires a further drop of 0.0440.050 (11 of last 25 years 44% do larger subsequent declines.)

compared with same day of year:
2012.6931  -2.4246411   2.3153491
2011.6931  -1.8223457   2.9047396
2007.6931  -1.7656736   2.9614117
2008.6931  -1.6738880   3.0661023
2010.6931  -1.6364298   3.0906556
2009.6931  -1.2755177   3.4515677
2014_______________3.469
2013.6931  -1.1726882   3.5543971
2002.6931  -0.6255538   4.1015315

Remains 7th lowest for day. (But close to 6th and 8th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably.)
Down to 1154k above 2012.

Losses from day .6931 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.095   3.374 (6th lowest)
2006   0.320   3.149 (6th lowest)
2007   0.000   3.469 (7th lowest)
2008   0.030   3.439 (7th lowest)
2009   0.000   3.469 (7th lowest)
2010   0.013   3.456 (7th lowest)
2011   0.000   3.469 (7th lowest)
2012   0.081   3.388 (6th lowest)
2013   0.000   3.469 (7th lowest)
      
07+Average____   0.018   3.451 (7th lowest)
07+Average+3sd   0.314   3.155 (6th lowest)
07+Average+2sd   0.215   3.254 (6th lowest)
07+Average+sd_   0.116   3.353 (6th lowest)
07+Average-sd_   -0.081   3.550 (Projected 3.4693.475 is 7th lowest)
07+Average-2sd   -0.179   3.648 (Projected 3.4693.475 is 7th lowest)
07+Average-3sd   -0.278   3.747 (Projected 3.4693.475 is 7th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.08 using just post 2006 years.
Note that I am now using the last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.066 and standard deviation of 0.099

Typical reductions using 1sd range results in 6th to 7th lowest area, using 2sd range leads to 6th to 7th lowest area, and using 3sd deviation range leads to 6th to 7th lowest area.

Thanks again to Steven for noticing so many of my errors.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2014, 12:11:37 AM by crandles »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1009 on: September 11, 2014, 01:21:47 PM »
IJIS Extent:
5,000,248 km2 (10 September)
Down 9,448,168 km2 (65.39%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,822,793 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Up 8,627 km2 from previous day.
Down 179,208 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -25,601 km2).
Down 218,014 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -21,801 km2).
507,160 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
582,462 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
166,651 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,735,583 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.35% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.53%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (22.13%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (32.02%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1010 on: September 11, 2014, 04:09:20 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Fri: -63k (-)
Sat: +76k

That is mostly due to a big increase "lake ice" (+42k), but the increase of sea ice area in the CAB can also be regarded as big (+37k).

Regional extent changes are small except the CAA (-20k).

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-10 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3835.9   +5.7  -412.0    257.0   -2.6  -176.7     20.4  +10.9  -236.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    92.1   +2.5  -121.3    109.6   -6.0   +68.1    161.1   -3.7   -63.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    23.9   -6.9   -39.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     14.0   -2.4   -14.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   436.7  -19.6   +41.1    154.5   +6.3   -96.3      5.6   -8.0  -125.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    205.5  +40.4   +69.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5110.8  -23.7 -1175.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2912.8  +36.8  -541.4     76.4   -0.6  -205.2      7.3   +2.7  -148.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    36.7   -0.2   -86.2     50.6   -4.6   +33.1     81.3   -3.7   -30.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    12.5   -3.6   -19.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.2   -0.7    -4.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   247.9   -9.5   +12.9     82.9   +7.1   -66.8      1.5   -1.8   -70.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    130.0  +41.7   +71.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3516.1  +21.9 -1126.5

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1011 on: September 12, 2014, 07:19:16 AM »
Since we are (near) the 2014 minimum, I thought it would be interesting to show the differences with 2012 as seen by the AMSR2 instrument (sea ice concentration from Jaxa).

Neven

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1012 on: September 12, 2014, 10:26:32 AM »
Wow, what a huge difference!
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1013 on: September 12, 2014, 12:13:27 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.542 - 0.063 = 3.479 + 0.076 = 3.555

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.542 is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

Next target is 3.425 so requires a further drop of 0.130 (6 of last 25 years 24% do larger subsequent declines.)

compared with same day of year:
2012.6959  -2.4786112   2.2620590
2011.6959  -1.8142602   2.9257300
2007.6959  -1.7674837   2.9725065
2008.6959  -1.6712552   3.0694151
2010.6959  -1.6625719   3.0774183
2009.6959  -1.2425675   3.4974227
2014_______________3.555
2013.6959  -1.1689103   3.5710800
2002.6959  -0.6677866   4.0722036

Remains 7th lowest for day. (But close to 6th and 8th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably.)
Up to 1293k above 2012.

Losses from day .6959 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.077   3.478 (7th lowest)
2006   0.286   3.269 (6th lowest)
2007   0.011   3.544 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
2008   0.033   3.522 (or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
2009   0.000   3.555 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
2010   0.000   3.555 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
2011   0.000   3.555 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
2012   0.028   3.527 (or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
2013   0.004   3.551 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
      
07+Average____   0.011   3.544 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
07+Average+3sd   0.352   3.203 (6th lowest)
07+Average+2sd   0.239   3.316 (6th lowest)
07+Average+sd_   0.125   3.430 (7th lowest)
07+Average-sd_   -0.103   3.658 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
07+Average-2sd   -0.217   3.772 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)
07+Average-3sd   -0.331   3.886 (already had 3.542 or projected 3.479 is 7th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.033 using just post 2006 years. 1995 managed a subsequent loss of 0.378. Note that I am now using the last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.071 and standard deviation of 0.114

Typical reductions using 1sd range results in 7th lowest area, using 2sd range leads to 6th to 7th lowest area, and using 3sd deviation range leads to 6th to 7th lowest area.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1014 on: September 12, 2014, 05:10:38 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Sat: +76k (-)
Sun: -3k

That is mostly due to a big drop in  "lake ice" (-27k), without it there would have been an area increase mostly due to CAB  (+19k).

Regional extent changes are small and positive except the ESS (-20k).

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-11 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3842.9   +7.0  -403.5    237.1  -19.9  -196.9      8.9  -11.5  -248.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    95.2   +3.1  -117.3    108.9   -0.7   +67.4    167.3   +6.2   -58.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    33.0   +9.1   -30.9      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     14.7   +0.7   -13.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   450.3  +13.5   +53.6    159.7   +5.1   -88.3      6.3   +0.7  -124.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    218.2  +12.7   +82.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5124.2  +13.4 -1161.0

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2932.1  +19.3  -527.1     67.9   -8.5  -216.0      4.2   -3.2  -153.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    41.0   +4.3   -81.9     49.6   -1.0   +32.1     85.1   +3.8   -28.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    15.9   +3.4   -16.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.0   +0.8    -3.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   249.7   +1.8   +13.7     94.1  +11.2   -54.2      1.6   +0.2   -69.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    103.2  -26.8   +44.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3548.2  +32.1 -1105.3

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1015 on: September 12, 2014, 06:40:14 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.483 + 0.076 - 0.003 = 3.556

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.483 is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

Next target is 3.425 so requires a further drop of 0.131 (6 of last 25 years 24% do larger subsequent declines.)

compared with same day of year:
2012.6986  -2.5096879   2.2397964
2011.6986  -1.8068093   2.9338610
2007.6986  -1.7492334   2.9914370
2008.6986  -1.6579669   3.0915174
2010.6986  -1.6159343   3.1247361
2009.6986  -1.2186016   3.5220687
2014_______________3.556
2013.6986  -1.1732515   3.5674188
2002.6986  -0.6746016   4.0660687

Remains 7th lowest for day. (But close to 6th and 8th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably.)
Up to 1316k above 2012.

Losses from day .6986 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.033   3.523 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2006   0.346   3.210 (6th lowest)
2007   0.030   3.526 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2008   0.056   3.500 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2009   0.001   3.555 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2010   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2011   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2012   0.006   3.550 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2013   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)

94+Average____   0.074   3.482 (7th lowest)
94+Average+3sd   0.451   3.105 (6th lowest)
94+Average+2sd   0.325   3.231 (6th lowest)
94+Average+sd_   0.199   3.357 (6th lowest)
94+Average-sd_   -0.052   3.608 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
94+Average-2sd   -0.178   3.734 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
94+Average-3sd   -0.303   3.859 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
      
Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.06 using just post 2006 years. 1995 managed a subsequent loss of 0.422. Note that I am now using the last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.074 and standard deviation of 0.126

Typical reductions using 1sd range results in 6th to 7th lowest area, using 2sd range leads to 6th to 7th lowest area, and using 3sd deviation range leads to 6th to 7th lowest area.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1016 on: September 12, 2014, 08:04:16 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,987,733 km2 (11 September)
Down 9,460,683 km2 (65.48%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,810,278 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 12,515 km2 from previous day.
Down 155,079 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -22,154 km2).
Down 230,529 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -20,957 km2).
516,409 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
568,694 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
162,636 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,753,471 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.33% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.51%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (22.05%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (31.89%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,483,168 km2 (11 September [Day 0.6931])
Down 10,004,169 km2 (74.17%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
1,249,159 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 59,078 km2 from previous day.
Down 162,200 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -23,171 km2).
Down 294,208 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -26,746 km2).
481,701 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
413,506 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
71,229 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
1,167,819 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.72% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.27%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.69%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.69%) have been among the lowest three on record.

jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1017 on: September 13, 2014, 10:22:17 AM »

CT Area:
3,483,168 km2 (11 September [Day 0.6931])
<snippage>
Down 59,078 km2 from previous day.

<more snippage>

Pretty amazing drop for this late in the season, seems.  Would appear the heat dumped onto the system is finally chewing through the last of the MYI
This space for Rent.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1018 on: September 13, 2014, 01:49:34 PM »

CT Area:
3,483,168 km2 (11 September [Day 0.6931])
<snippage>
Down 59,078 km2 from previous day.

<more snippage>

Pretty amazing drop for this late in the season, seems.  Would appear the heat dumped onto the system is finally chewing through the last of the MYI

It is--but then CT SIA shot back up 74k yesterday, the largest one-day increase since 26 April (0.3151). Meanwhile, JAXA extent dropped by 52k, the biggest one-day decrease in nearly three weeks.

Ya gotta love the Arctic...  ;)

(FWIW, if yesterday's SIA turns out to be the seasonal minimum--a very distinct possibility--it will have occurred on the same day as the 2013 minimum. (2012 didn't bottom out until 14 September).

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1019 on: September 13, 2014, 01:53:13 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,935,847 km2 (12 September)
Down 9,512,569 km2 (65.84%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,758,392 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 51,886 km2 from previous day.
Down 156,994 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -22,428 km2).
Down 282,415 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -23,535 km2).
560,452 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
527,168 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
126,559 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,729,185 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.31% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.49%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (21.96%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (31.76%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,557,472 km2 (12 September [Day 0.6959])
Down 9,929,866 km2 (73.62%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
1,323,462 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Up 74,303 km2 from previous day.
Down 68,791 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -9,827 km2).
Down 219,904 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -18,325 km2).
411,140 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
478,720 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
13,608 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
1,295,413 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.71% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.24%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.67%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.61%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1020 on: September 13, 2014, 07:06:49 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Sun: -3k
Mon: +1k

None of the regional area changes seem noteworthy.

By extent the ESS showed a big drop: -35k.

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-12 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3838.6   -4.3  -406.4    202.4  -34.8  -232.0      7.6   -1.3  -251.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    99.4   +4.3  -112.1    110.2   +1.3   +68.6    177.3  +10.0   -51.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    21.5  -11.5   -43.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     13.4   -1.2   -13.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   464.6  +14.3   +67.2    164.7   +5.1   -81.3      8.8   +2.5  -121.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    211.6   -6.6   +76.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5108.7  -15.5 -1176.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2940.6   +8.4  -524.0     56.3  -11.6  -229.6      3.6   -0.6  -155.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    43.9   +2.9   -79.0     49.8   +0.2   +32.2     86.5   +1.4   -29.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    12.6   -3.3   -20.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.4   -0.6    -4.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   261.9  +12.3   +24.9     96.1   +2.0   -51.4      2.2   +0.6   -69.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     96.0   -7.2   +37.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3559.8  +11.6 -1105.5

jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1021 on: September 13, 2014, 07:47:39 PM »

CT Area:
3,483,168 km2 (11 September [Day 0.6931])
<snippage>
Down 59,078 km2 from previous day.

<more snippage>

Pretty amazing drop for this late in the season, seems.  Would appear the heat dumped onto the system is finally chewing through the last of the MYI

It is--but then CT SIA shot back up 74k yesterday, the largest one-day increase since 26 April (0.3151). Meanwhile, JAXA extent dropped by 52k, the biggest one-day decrease in nearly three weeks.

Ya gotta love the Arctic...  ;)

(FWIW, if yesterday's SIA turns out to be the seasonal minimum--a very distinct possibility--it will have occurred on the same day as the 2013 minimum. (2012 didn't bottom out until 14 September).

It is likely we are seeing both activities, I'll wager - refreeze starting above 85N and towards the "cold" pole, and continued attack by warm surface water along the periphery, aided by influxes of heat and moisture from lower latitudes - as implied by the *export* of cold air causing the sensational snowfalls in the upper Great Plains.
This space for Rent.

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1022 on: September 13, 2014, 09:16:50 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.557 - 0.003 +0.001 = 3.556

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.483 is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

6 of last 25 years 24% do larger subsequent declines than 73k which would mean a later and lower minimum than 2014.6931 3.483

Next target is 3.425 for 6th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.131 (5 of last 25 years 20% do larger subsequent declines.

Next target is 3.072 for 5th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.484. Largest subsequent loss in last 25 year is 0.404 so appears to be less than a 4% chance.

compared with same day of year:
2012.7014  -2.5251360   2.2340095
2011.7014  -1.7952113   2.9542730
2007.7014  -1.7697687   2.9797156
2008.7014  -1.6756181   3.0835276
2010.7014  -1.6215401   3.1279442
2009.7014  -1.2280085   3.5214758
2014_______________3.556
2013.7014  -1.1226542   3.6268301
2002.7014  -0.6285664   4.1209178

Remains 7th lowest for day. (But close to 6th and 8th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably.)
Up to 1322k above 2012.

Losses from day .6986 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2006   0.296   3.260 (6th lowest)
2007   0.018   3.538 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2008   0.048   3.508 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2009   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2010   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2011   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2012   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2013   0.000   3.556 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.05 using just post 2006 years. 1995 managed a subsequent loss of 0.404. The last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.065 and standard deviation of 0.114. As the subsequent decline cannot be negative and the standard deviation is larger than average decline, this shows that the distribution is clearly not normally distributed. Therefore I am ceasing information on 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation ranges

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1023 on: September 14, 2014, 02:26:32 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,902,691 km2 (13 September)
Down 9,545,725 km2 (66.07%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,725,236 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 33,156 km2 from previous day.
Down 147,678 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -21,097 km2).
Down 315,571 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -24,275 km2).
581,428 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
494,252 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
81,852 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,702,061 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.3% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.47%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (21.88%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (31.64%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,555,707 km2 (13 September [Day 0.6986])
Down 9,931,631 km2 (73.64%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
1,321,697 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 1,765 km2 from previous day.
Down 27,934 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -3,991 km2).
Down 221,669 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -17,051 km2).
421,046 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
471,403 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
11,712 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
1,315,910 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.69% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.2%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.64%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.53%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1024 on: September 14, 2014, 04:52:03 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Mon: +1k (-)
Tue: -7k

The biggest change comes from the CAA where the NSIDC sees a sudden opening of the Parry Channel: -35k. Increases in the CAB and "lake ice" almost nullify the resulting number.

By extent the CAA drop is even more extreme -77k.

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-13 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3838.7   +0.1  -404.9    192.7   -9.7  -242.2      7.0   -0.6  -253.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    88.2  -11.3  -122.1    122.0  +11.8   +80.4    156.5  -20.8   -74.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    29.8   +8.4   -35.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     15.2   +1.8   -11.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   387.5  -77.2   -10.4    176.2  +11.5   -68.8     11.3   +2.4  -118.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    253.9  +42.3  +119.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5025.1  -83.5 -1261.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2967.5  +26.9  -502.9     52.6   -3.7  -235.2      3.3   -0.2  -156.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    38.6   -5.3   -84.2     53.3   +3.6   +35.7     70.9  -15.6   -47.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    14.6   +2.1   -18.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.1   +0.7    -3.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   226.5  -35.4   -11.8    100.5   +4.4   -46.5      2.8   +0.7   -69.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    107.3  +11.3   +49.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3538.0  -21.8 -1140.3

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1025 on: September 14, 2014, 05:05:33 PM »
One-day NSIDC extent is now below the 2009 and 2013 minima, bringing to 30 the number of years whose minima 2014 has passed: 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2013.

2014 has now clinched a spot in the six (6) lowest years on record. 2014 is about 400,000 km2 above the 2010 minimum, the next year to be surpassed, but nearly impossible.

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1026 on: September 14, 2014, 09:25:51 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.556 + 0.001 - 0.007 = 3.550

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.483 is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline.

7 of last 25 years 28% do larger subsequent declines than 67k which would mean a later and lower minimum than 2014.6931 3.483

Next target is 3.425 for 6th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.125 (4 of last 25 years 16% do larger subsequent declines.

Next target is 3.072 for 5th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.478. Largest subsequent loss in last 25 year is 0.381 so, with limited data to assess a low probability, appears to be less than a 4% chance.

compared with same day of year:
2012.7041  -2.5055733   2.2648528
2007.7041  -1.7733201   2.9858255
2011.7041  -1.6902925   3.0688531
2008.7041  -1.6141587   3.1562672
2010.7041  -1.5622581   3.1968875
2009.7041  -1.2246929   3.5344527
2014_______________3.556
2013.7041  -1.0946084   3.6645372
2002.7041  -0.5920500   4.1670957

Remains 7th lowest for day. (But close to 6th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably.)
Down to 1285k above 2012.

Losses from day .7014 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.000   3.550 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2006   0.232   3.318 (6th lowest)
2007   0.024   3.526 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2008   0.120   3.430 (or already had 3.483 either is 7th lowest)
2009   0.000   3.550 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2010   0.000   3.550 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2011   0.000   3.550 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2012   0.027   3.523 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2013   0.000   3.550 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.12 using just post 2006 years. 1995 managed a subsequent loss of 0.381. The last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.064 and standard deviation of 0.097. As the subsequent decline cannot be negative and the standard deviation is larger than average decline, this shows that the distribution is clearly not normally distributed. Therefore I have ceased providing information on 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation ranges.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1027 on: September 15, 2014, 12:24:23 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,904,059 km2 (14 September)
Down 9,544,357 km2 (66.06%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,726,604 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Up 1,368 km2 from previous day.
Down 131,212 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -18,745 km2).
Down 314,203 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -22,443 km2).
577,559 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
485,008 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
77,902 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,706,875 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.28% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.45%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (21.79%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (31.52%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,558,450 km2 (14 September [Day 0.7014])
Down 9,928,887 km2 (73.62%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
1,324,441 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Up 2,744 km2 from previous day.
Down 47,693 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -6,813 km2).
Down 218,926 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -15,638 km2).
423,591 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
458,149 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
68,380 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
1,324,441 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.67% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.17%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.61%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.46%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Jack Frost

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1028 on: September 15, 2014, 02:55:14 PM »
Nansen ROOS ( Norwegian ) algo looks like it's turned: extent hit a low on 11th, area on 12th.

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png

They apply a light lowess filter, which is unreliable at the start and end of the series. Come back in a week and that up-tick in extent will be less radical but will still be an up-tick.

IMO, boys and girls, it's game over for this this year, at levels slightly higher than last year.

« Last Edit: September 18, 2014, 10:20:18 AM by Jack Frost »

Jack Frost

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1029 on: September 15, 2014, 04:15:27 PM »
Jim, IIRC JAXA redefined the way they calculated ice extent shortly before last years minimum.

Whether this was an improvement or not, it rather invalidates this sort of comparative stats.  I would suggest you use another group's ice extent that has been done in a consistent way over the period you are interested in.

The lowest days, lowest week etc may be helpful as a way of detecting when a turn has happened.
Maybe in intermediate term like fornight may be good too. There is quite a bit variability on that scale and at 21 days. So averaging those periods may also be informative.

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1030 on: September 15, 2014, 04:20:07 PM »
Moving on from the one-day data, five-day NSIDC extent average is also now below the five-day minima set in 2009 and 2013. We shall see if the September monthly average can also drop below 2009 and 2013 for this year.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1031 on: September 15, 2014, 04:30:05 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Tue: -7k (-)
Wed: +50k

Dominated by the change in the CAB (+45k).

By extent we see an increase in the Greenland Sea and a drop in the Barents (+21k and -17k).

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-14 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3851.8  +13.1  -390.7    202.2   +9.5  -233.5      8.9   +1.9  -252.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    79.3   -8.9  -129.8    105.1  -16.9   +63.3    177.5  +21.0   -56.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    19.6  -10.3   -46.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     12.8   -2.4   -13.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   380.9   -6.5   -17.4    176.1   -0.1   -68.3     12.5   +1.3  -117.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    267.6  +13.7  +133.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5026.7   +1.6 -1262.6

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3012.4  +44.9  -464.4     57.7   +5.1  -232.0      4.3   +1.0  -156.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    34.9   -3.7   -87.9     46.7   -6.6   +29.0     80.4   +9.5   -41.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    11.8   -2.9   -22.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.0   -1.1    -4.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   222.6   -3.9   -17.3    108.6   +8.1   -38.3      2.9   +0.1   -69.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    108.1   +0.8   +50.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3588.3  +50.4 -1104.8

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1032 on: September 15, 2014, 05:06:50 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.558 - 0.007 + 0.050 = 3.601

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.483 is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline. Projection of 3.601 is 0.118 above this.

2 of last 25 years 8% do larger subsequent declines than 118k which would mean a later and lower minimum than 2014.6931 3.483

Next target is 3.425 for 6th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.176 (2 of last 25 years 8% do larger subsequent declines.

Next target is 3.072 for 5th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.529. Largest subsequent loss in last 25 year is 0.384 so, with limited data to assess a low probability, appears to be less than a 4% chance. Requires 38% higher subsequent loss than highest in last 25 years.

compared with same day of year:
2012.7069  -2.5101068   2.2799201
2007.7069  -1.8088628   2.9615631
2008.7069  -1.7143149   3.0757120
2011.7069  -1.5730079   3.1974180
2010.7069  -1.5572141   3.2132118
2009.7069  -1.1966423   3.5737836
2014_______________3.601
2013.7069  -1.0848180   3.6856079
2006.7069  -0.6489545   4.1214714


Remains 7th lowest for day. (But close to 6th and 8th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably.)
Up to 1321k above 2012.

Losses from day .7069 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.024   3.577 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2006   0.105   3.496 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2007   0.000   3.601 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2008   0.040   3.561 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2009   0.000   3.601 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2010   0.000   3.601 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2011   0.000   3.601 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2012   0.042   3.559 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2013   0.000   3.601 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.04 using just post 2006 years. 1995 managed a subsequent loss of 0.384. The last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.055 and standard deviation of 0.093. As the subsequent decline cannot be negative and the standard deviation is larger than average decline, this shows that the distribution is clearly not normally distributed. Therefore I have ceased providing information on 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation ranges.

Jack Frost

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1033 on: September 15, 2014, 09:07:50 PM »
Hehe, this is starting to sound like football commentary, with each player stats coming up each time they get the ball.


Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1034 on: September 16, 2014, 01:00:19 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,888,765 km2 (15 September)
Down 9,559,651 km2 (66.16%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,711,310 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 15,294 km2 from previous day.
Down 138,503 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -19,786 km2).
Down 329,497 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -21,966 km2).
590,326 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
471,068 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
53,834 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,710,365 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.26% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.43%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (21.71%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (31.4%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,558,724 km2 (15 September [Day 0.7041])
Down 9,928,614 km2 (73.61%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
1,324,714 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Up 274 km2 from previous day.
Down 30,405 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -4,344 km2).
Down 218,652 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -14,577 km2).
440,279 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
407,953 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
105,814 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
1,293,871 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.65% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.14%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.59%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.38%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 02:33:46 PM by Jim Pettit »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1035 on: September 16, 2014, 01:31:41 PM »
Update for the week to September 13th

The current 5 day mean is on 5,108,020km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,029,860km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,173,300km2, an increase from -1,056,700km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,082,290km2, a change from +1,174,700km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, down from 8th last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -28.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -12.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -15.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +5.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +6.7k/day.

The change so far this September is the 7th most negative on record. For September to achieve the largest gain, a daily increase of 65.6k/day is required, while the largest loss requires +3.3k/day, with an averaged September increase requiring +23.2k/day.



I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1036 on: September 16, 2014, 04:45:03 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Wed: +50k (-)
Thu: +20k

Dominated by the change in the Greenland Sea (+23k)

By extent we see an increase in the Greenland Sea and some small drops in CAB and CAA.

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-15 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3840.7  -11.1  -401.1    202.2   +0.1  -234.4      9.6   +0.6  -253.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    79.3   +0.1  -129.3    103.1   -2.0   +61.0    195.6  +18.1   -41.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    30.0  +10.4   -37.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     12.2   -0.6   -14.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   368.4  -12.5   -31.2    172.3   -3.8   -71.9      4.4   -8.2  -125.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.6   +0.6    +0.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    240.3  -27.3  +107.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5018.4   -8.3 -1277.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3018.2   +5.8  -465.4     59.7   +2.0  -231.9      4.7   +0.4  -157.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    33.3   -1.6   -89.6     47.3   +0.6   +29.5    103.0  +22.6   -21.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    15.7   +4.0   -18.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.9   -0.1    -4.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   221.0   -1.6   -20.8    102.0   -6.6   -45.3      1.2   -1.7   -72.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.1   +0.1    +0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    106.1   -2.0   +48.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3612.3  +24.0 -1097.8

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1037 on: September 16, 2014, 05:01:42 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.559 + 0.050 +0.020 = 3.629

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.483 is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline. Projection of 3.629 is 0.146 above this.

1 of last 25 years 4% do larger subsequent declines than 146k which would mean a later and lower minimum than 2014.6931 3.483

Next target is 3.425 for 6th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.204 (1 of last 25 years 4% do larger subsequent declines.

Next target is 3.072 for 5th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.557. Largest subsequent loss in last 25 year is 0.382 so, with limited data to assess a low probability, appears to be less than a 4% chance. Requires 46% higher subsequent loss than highest in last 25 years.

compared with same day of year:
2012.7096  -2.5759177   2.2444446
2007.7096  -1.8177102   2.9723167
2008.7096  -1.7773294   3.0430329
2010.7096  -1.5527275   3.2372994
2011.7096  -1.5180869   3.2719400
2009.7096  -1.1635275   3.6264994
2014_______________3.629
2013.7096  -1.0825231   3.7075038
2006.7096  -0.7602493   4.0297775

Remains 7th lowest for day. (But close to 6th and 8th lowest and probably not stat distinguishably.)
Up to 1385k above 2012.

Losses from day .7096 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.102   3.527 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2006   0.013   3.616 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2007   0.000   3.629 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2008   0.007   3.622 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2009   0.000   3.629 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2010   0.000   3.629 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2011   0.046   3.583 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2012   0.007   3.622 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2013   0.000   3.629 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.05 using just post 2006 years. 1995 managed a subsequent loss of 0.382. The last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.049 and standard deviation of 0.086. As the subsequent decline cannot be negative and the standard deviation is larger than average decline, this shows that the distribution is clearly not normally distributed. Therefore I have ceased providing information on 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation ranges.

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1038 on: September 16, 2014, 05:26:00 PM »
The 1995 subsequent loss of 382k looks exceptional. (2nd to 8th largest subsequent losses in last 25 years are all between 50 and 102k.)

Weather for next week does not look exceptional.

Therefore I think we can be over 95% confident that the date and minimum area for 2014 is
2014.6931  3.4831684

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1039 on: September 16, 2014, 07:20:39 PM »
I think we can be over 95% confident that the date and minimum area for 2014 is
2014.6931  3.4831684

Agreed...though I'd put the confidence level that CT SIA bottomed out several days ago at something close 100%.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1040 on: September 17, 2014, 12:48:13 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,886,207 km2 (16 September)
Down 9,562,209 km2 (66.18%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,708,752 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 2,558 km2 from previous day.
Down 105,414 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -15,059 km2).
Down 332,055 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -20,753 km2).
595,243 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
487,491 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
61,280 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,708,752 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.25% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.41%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (21.62%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (31.27%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1041 on: September 17, 2014, 05:03:59 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Thu: +20k (-)
Fri: -14k

Dominated by the change in the Greenland Sea (-26k) and CAB (+19k).

By extent we see declines in the Greenland Sea and Beaufort.

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-16 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3845.8   +5.1  -395.5    196.5   -5.7  -241.0      9.6   +0.0  -254.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    81.2   +1.9  -127.3     99.9   -3.3   +57.4    168.3  -27.3   -71.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    30.2   +0.2   -37.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     14.7   +2.5   -11.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   363.0   -5.5   -38.2    161.6  -10.7   -83.1      7.4   +3.0  -122.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.6   +0.0    +0.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    249.1   +8.9  +116.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   4978.7  -39.7 -1325.0

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3037.1  +18.9  -453.0     55.4   -4.3  -237.9      4.8   +0.1  -158.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    33.1   -0.2   -90.1     48.4   +1.1   +30.4     76.7  -26.3   -50.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    15.8   +0.1   -19.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.0   +1.0    -3.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   223.7   +2.7   -20.0     94.3   -7.8   -54.2      1.7   +0.5   -72.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.1   +0.0    +0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    106.4   +0.3   +49.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3598.1  -14.2 -1129.6

Jack Frost

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1042 on: September 18, 2014, 10:35:41 AM »
NANSEN data is confirming what I said a few days ago, it bottomed out on the 11 Sept.

Ice area is looking the same so far but it's less volatile, so it will take a little longer to show this clearly.

What is most significant is that it's higher than last year. There is a tendency for year to year alternation so I was expecting this year to be a little below 2013. The fact that it is higher than last year really underlines a sustained recovery, not just a freak year.

This has to be good news for those concerned about tipping points etc, not so good for those with money in oil exploration or Arctic cruise businesses.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1043 on: September 18, 2014, 01:07:44 PM »
The fact that it is higher than last year really underlines a sustained recovery...

How does the fact that 2014 Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area is lower than last year fit into your "sustained recovery" theory?

The fact is, almost universally, 2014's numbers are roughly the same as last year's--and last year's numbers were still the 6th or 7th lowest on the record. Linguistically-speaking, then, by no stretch of the definition of the term can that be considered a "recovery" of any type, sustained or otherwise. Show me ice minima continuing to increase substantially for several consecutive years, then we'll talk. Until then, it's just a variable combination of annual factors...

(FWIW, JAXA Arctic sea ice extent continues to drop; see my daily summary below.)

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1044 on: September 18, 2014, 01:08:17 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,884,120 km2 (17 September)
Down 9,564,296 km2 (66.2%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,706,665 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 2,087 km2 from previous day.
Down 116,128 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -16,590 km2).
Down 334,142 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -19,655 km2).
602,908 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
490,239 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
52,118 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,670,210 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.23% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.38%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (21.54%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (31.15%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,614,605 km2 (17 September [Day 0.7096])
Up 10,087 km2 from previous day.
Up 72,358 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 10,337 km2).
Down 162,771 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -9,575 km2).
378,516 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
399,446 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
92,899 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
1,370,160 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
6th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.62% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.08%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.54%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.23%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2014, 03:10:18 PM by Jim Pettit »

Meirion

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1045 on: September 18, 2014, 04:45:40 PM »


"The fact is, almost universally, 2014's numbers are roughly the same as last year's" Not volume. Volume is all important and PIOMAS min 2013 vol was unsurprisingly up on record low of 2012 but 2014 being up on 2013 is a surprise. My guess is that 2015 will be lower than 2014 and this is just noise in the trend to zero. The minimum volume in 2014 which is being painted as reassuring is the same as it was in 2007 and that caused panic at the time, but if 2015 min vol was up on 2014 again i'd be looking for negative feedback effects. 

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1046 on: September 18, 2014, 05:09:49 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Fri: -14k (-)
Sat: -14k

Biggest changes  in the CAA (+18k) and CAB (-19k).

By extent we see big increase inthe CAA (+41k) and smaller one in the CAB (+13k).

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-17 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3858.5  +12.8  -382.4    195.9   -0.6  -242.5      9.6   +0.0  -256.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    76.7   -4.5  -132.1     92.1   -7.8   +49.2    161.1   -7.1   -81.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    33.8   +3.6   -35.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     15.3   +0.6   -10.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   403.8  +40.9    +0.7    153.4   -8.2   -92.6      3.7   -3.7  -127.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +0.6    +1.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    234.8  -14.4  +102.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5005.1  +26.5 -1308.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3018.7  -18.5  -478.3     55.4   +0.0  -239.5      5.0   +0.2  -159.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    32.1   -0.9   -91.3     40.8   -7.7   +22.6     74.3   -2.4   -56.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    16.4   +0.6   -19.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.3   +0.3    -2.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   241.5  +17.8    -4.4     90.5   -3.8   -59.6      1.3   -0.4   -74.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.3   +0.1    +0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    105.2   -1.1   +48.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3583.5  -14.6 -1163.1

viddaloo

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1047 on: September 18, 2014, 05:19:57 PM »
My guess is that 2015 will be lower than 2014 and this is just noise in the trend to zero. The minimum volume in 2014 which is being painted as reassuring is the same as it was in 2007 and that caused panic at the time, but if 2015 min vol was up on 2014 again i'd be looking for negative feedback effects.
My guess is 2015 will be like 2010, a truly record–breaking season (2010's the first year since 1981 to set new records for all of April, May and June separately), that even had a (very slightly) higher melt volume than 2012. But when we use a word like 'noise', we have to remember that if 2014 is 'noise', then 2007, 2010 and 2012 were 'noise', too. You see that clearly on the scatter graphs; some years are below the trendline, and some are above it. Natural like apple pie! :)

« Last Edit: September 18, 2014, 05:29:51 PM by viddaloo »
[]

jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1048 on: September 18, 2014, 07:17:32 PM »
NANSEN data is confirming what I said a few days ago, it bottomed out on the 11 Sept.

Ice area is looking the same so far but it's less volatile, so it will take a little longer to show this clearly.

What is most significant is that it's higher than last year. There is a tendency for year to year alternation so I was expecting this year to be a little below 2013. The fact that it is higher than last year really underlines a sustained recovery, not just a freak year.

This has to be good news for those concerned about tipping points etc, not so good for those with money in oil exploration or Arctic cruise businesses.

Jim is correct, on both counts. The numbers are not an improvement over 2014, and several more years of improving conditions are necessary to *suggest* that is happening.

2014 = sustained recovery = wishful thinking

I wish it was true. The numbers tell me it's not.
This space for Rent.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1049 on: September 19, 2014, 01:59:06 PM »
IJIS Extent:
4,898,064 km2 (18 September)
Down 9,550,352 km2 (66.1%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
1,720,609 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Up 13,944 km2 from previous day.
Down 89,669 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -12,810 km2).
Down 320,198 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -17,789 km2).
599,338 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
479,592 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
59,137 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
1,578,248 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
7th lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (4.21% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (5.36%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (21.46%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (31.03%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
3,599,859 km2 (18 September [Day 0.7123])
Down 14,746 km2 from previous day.
Up 116,690 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 16,670 km2).
Down 177,517 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -9,862 km2).
403,561 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
377,926 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
126,800 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
1,361,925 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest September to-date average.
6th lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (4.6% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (8.05%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (6.51%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (19.16%) have been among the lowest three on record.