Author Topic: Northwest Passage thread (Read 257225 times)

ghoti · « **Reply #100 on:** August 16, 2015, 09:37:00 PM »

Yeah and that map is quite a few days out of date (or at least when I compare it to the positions provided by individual boats). So there's plenty of ice in the passage but more than enough clearance for the boats to manage just fine.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #101 on:** August 17, 2015, 02:29:32 PM »

A few yachts seem to waiting near the western entrance to Bellot Strait before heading south, whilst both Philos and Selma seem to have made it through the strait:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/is-the-northwest-passage-open-yet/#comment-211424

Phil. · « **Reply #102 on:** August 18, 2015, 04:15:25 PM »

Salty Kisses left their anchorage near Belotte and is heading south through Peel Sound.

ghoti · « **Reply #103 on:** August 19, 2015, 01:39:18 AM »

I think S/V Selma was just ahead of them and maybe Snow Dragon II is in the same area.

Phil. · « **Reply #104 on:** August 20, 2015, 12:34:38 PM »

Salty Kisses making good progress (~5kts) should pass Jenny Lind Island soon.
They appear to have anchored there now.

Phil. · « **Reply #105 on:** August 21, 2015, 06:42:12 PM »

Salty Kisses into Queen Maud now, about 7 knots.

ghoti · « **Reply #106 on:** August 21, 2015, 06:50:38 PM »

The Northwest Passage tracker is still at least a day behind but up to the point where Salty Kisses pulled in and stopped at Jenny Lind Island it is showing identical paths for S/V Snowdragon II and S/V Bagheera. This includes the stopover just north of Bellot and the same stopover at Jenny Lind.

Next stop Cambridge Bay perhaps?

http://www.thenorthwestpassage.info/

Phil. · « **Reply #107 on:** August 22, 2015, 03:26:04 PM »

Quote from: ghoti on August 21, 2015, 06:50:38 PM

The Northwest Passage tracker is still at least a day behind but up to the point where Salty Kisses pulled in and stopped at Jenny Lind Island it is showing identical paths for S/V Snowdragon II and S/V Bagheera. This includes the stopover just north of Bellot and the same stopover at Jenny Lind.

Next stop Cambridge Bay perhaps?

http://www.thenorthwestpassage.info/

Salty Kisses spent last night in Cambridge Bay.

Neven · « **Reply #108 on:** August 22, 2015, 11:26:39 PM »

First reasonably clear satellite image since a while:

I'm intrigued by that cappuccino ice in the middle of the NWP. I don't think I've seen it often there.

Here's a close-up on EOSDIS Worldview.

Neven · « **Reply #109 on:** August 23, 2015, 02:24:06 PM »

Over on the Home brew AMSR2 thread Wipneus posted the following animation:

Espen · « **Reply #110 on:** August 24, 2015, 06:11:31 PM »

Nansen Sound (Ellesmere Island) will soon unplug together with Independence Fjord (North Greenland), a very interesting season?

Phil. · « **Reply #111 on:** August 27, 2015, 01:49:51 AM »

Salty Kisses left Cambridge Bay today and is making good progress to the west heading into Coronation Gulf.

dmarcus · « **Reply #112 on:** August 28, 2015, 07:11:57 AM »

Here is the current status of all nine NW passage boats tracked at www.thenorthwestpassage.info. At least two are through, and all the rest are in good shape to complete the passage in the coming days:

1. Andros (west-to-east) has passed through Bellot Strait and also Hecla and Fury Strait, and is in the middle of Foxe Basin. Since it's barely north of the Arctic Circle, it will technically complete a northwest passage in the very near future.

2. Aventura has completed a west-to-east passage and is near Nuuk, Greenland.

3-4. Bagheera and Snow Dragon II, traveling together east-to-west, are in Cambridge Bay.

5. Hawk, traveling east-to-west, is approaching Gjoa Haven.

6. Necton has completed a west-to-east passage.

7. Philos, traveling west-to-east, was at the east end of Bellot Strait on August 13, and has not reported a position since. Assuming nothing bad happened, it has probably completed its passage by now.

8. Salty Kisses, traveling east-to-west, has completed its traverse of Coronation Gulf (see previous post) and entered Dolphin and Union Strait.

9. Selma, traveling east-to-west via Bellot Strait and Gjoa Haven, has reached Cambridge Bay.

Phil. · « **Reply #113 on:** August 28, 2015, 05:28:52 PM »

Thanks dmarcus. My guess is that those heading west will sit tight until the storm in the Beaufort eases off.

dmarcus · « **Reply #114 on:** August 28, 2015, 10:00:51 PM »

Your welcome, Phil.

A couple further notes: Andros appears to be the first boat to ever go west-to-east via Hecla and Fury Strait and the Foxe Basin, and only the 4th in either direction. Of the 9 passages lsited for this year, Hawk is the only one following Amundsen's original 1903-06 route.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #115 on:** August 29, 2015, 08:40:42 PM »

The main Northwest Passage is within a whisker of being passable without encountering ice concentrations greater than 3/10. I’m therefore eagerly awaiting the August 29th release of the Canadian Ice Service sea ice concentration maps!

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #116 on:** August 29, 2015, 09:29:52 PM »

There may possibly be a way around the north of Byam Martin Island, but the CIS resolutely state “No analysis” in that area. I guess that wouldn’t really count as the Parry Channel either. For the moment at least, there’s still an area of 9-10/10 concentration blocking the way:

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #117 on:** August 29, 2015, 11:12:44 PM »

A slightly cloudy MODIS image is now available:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/#Aug29

With a bit of luck an intrepid navigator in a motor yacht could probably make it through the remaining ice via a circuitous route. Personally I don't think that's enough to declare the passage "open" just yet, but others may disagree!

plinius · « **Reply #118 on:** August 30, 2015, 12:27:42 AM »

Well, at least one could state that even with their lead poisoning Franklin and his crew would not have died...

budmantis · « **Reply #119 on:** August 30, 2015, 03:46:59 AM »

Quote from: Jim Hunt on August 29, 2015, 11:12:44 PM

A slightly cloudy MODIS image is now available:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/#Aug29

With a bit of luck an intrepid navigator in a motor yacht could probably make it through the remaining ice via a circuitous route. Personally I don't think that's enough to declare the passage "open" just yet, but others may disagree!

I've been observing the arctic ice melt since 2009. This is the closest I've seen the Northwest passage to being open, without it being "officially" open.

Espen · « **Reply #120 on:** August 30, 2015, 06:29:39 PM »

Nansen Sound will soon be open to the north:

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #121 on:** August 30, 2015, 11:39:42 PM »

A nice clear view of the Parry Channel from Terra this evening:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#CAA

dmarcus · « **Reply #122 on:** September 01, 2015, 07:29:39 AM »

The 8/31 Uni Bremen close-up map at http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Resolute_AMSR2_visual.png shows an ice-free route through the Parry channel, just 1-2 days after the photo Jim Hunt posted.

diablobanquisa · « **Reply #123 on:** September 01, 2015, 10:41:59 AM »

However, looking at MODIS, I'd say that it's not open yet:

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #124 on:** September 01, 2015, 01:40:57 PM »

Quote from: diablobanquisa on September 01, 2015, 10:41:59 AM

However, looking at MODIS, I'd say that it's not open yet:

You got here before me Diablo!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/is-the-northwest-passage-open-yet/#comment-211688

I agree, and I feel sure that the CIS do so officially as well.

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #125 on:** September 01, 2015, 08:38:03 PM »

Jim & Diablo: according to the Canadian ice services ice maps my conclusion is that Amundsens Route now is entirely open.

Parry Channel may be closed right now but there is still an opportunity that it may open up temporarily as the surge of warm air in combo with southerlies will weaken the ice enough to call it "open". Diablos ice chart shows that the ice blocking the channel actually have weakened as the ice there now "only" is of 7-8/10. From previous day it was 9-10/10.

The warm air seems to be in place in the area for about another 48 hours. Beyond that I don't expect much more melting in this area.

If my memory is correct, both passages were open simultaneously in 2008 and 2012. Were they both open in 2007?

/LMV

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #126 on:** September 01, 2015, 11:28:45 PM »

In today's chart the CIS have "no analysis" in the thickest remaining ice in the Parry Channel

Amundsen's route certainly looks "open" however.

diablobanquisa · « **Reply #127 on:** September 01, 2015, 11:57:20 PM »

I agree, Amundsen's route looks entirely open.

Phil. · « **Reply #128 on:** September 02, 2015, 06:07:48 PM »

Salty Kisses is through the passage near the US/Canada border.

ghoti · « **Reply #129 on:** September 02, 2015, 07:19:22 PM »

Salty Kisses reports that the wind has been at least as big an issue in the Canadian Arctic as the ice has been.

http://saltykisses.net/hanging-in-the-arctic-waiting-on-weather/

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #130 on:** September 03, 2015, 08:48:37 AM »

According to the latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News:

Quote

The southerly route through the Northwest Passage is open. Data from the AMSR-2 satellite, which uses passive microwave emission, suggests that this path is ice-free. The higher-resolution Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) product, based on several data sources and human interpretation, shows only a few areas of low-concentration ice.

The broader and deeper passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, between Lancaster Sound, Parry Channel, and McClure Strait, is still obstructed by ice, but at the end of August ice blocked only a short portion near Victoria Island. Before drawing conclusions about navigability, however, it is important to check with the operational services such as the National Ice Center (NIC) or the Canadian Ice Service (CIS).

Phil. · « **Reply #131 on:** September 03, 2015, 12:52:04 PM »

Quote from: ghoti on September 02, 2015, 07:19:22 PM

Salty Kisses reports that the wind has been at least as big an issue in the Canadian Arctic as the ice has been.

http://saltykisses.net/hanging-in-the-arctic-waiting-on-weather/

Yeah, they just left harbor half an hour ago.

Phil. · « **Reply #132 on:** September 08, 2015, 07:46:27 PM »

Quote from: Phil. on September 03, 2015, 12:52:04 PM

Quote from: ghoti on September 02, 2015, 07:19:22 PM
Salty Kisses reports that the wind has been at least as big an issue in the Canadian Arctic as the ice has been.

http://saltykisses.net/hanging-in-the-arctic-waiting-on-weather/

Yeah, they just left harbor half an hour ago.

Now passing through the Bering Strait.

dmarcus · « **Reply #133 on:** September 09, 2015, 04:41:14 AM »

Parry Channel appears open, along with the rest of the main NW passage route:

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Resolute_AMSR2_visual.png

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #134 on:** September 14, 2015, 07:48:26 AM »

Parry Channel now appears more or less open but a complete analysis can't be done as the Canadian ice service doesn't show the entire channel. However, McClure Strait is open but the outer region of the Parry Channel is locally covered with very thin and fragile ice (1-3/10) according to CA.

//LMV

diablobanquisa · « **Reply #135 on:** September 17, 2015, 12:17:07 AM »

Last CIS regional map:

Parry Channel has finally opened during last week. Mc Clure strait is also open, although ice drift could block it again.

Last map of Mc Clure strait:

http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=D32C361E-1

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #136 on:** September 18, 2015, 01:49:10 PM »

I reckon we can at long last confidently declare the main Northwest Passage to be OPEN!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/is-the-northwest-passage-open-yet/#Sep18

ghoti · « **Reply #137 on:** September 18, 2015, 05:17:42 PM »

Remaining question is which route will the MV Andros take from Resolute west through their second northwest passage of this season?

Andreas T · « **Reply #138 on:** September 19, 2015, 09:11:52 PM »

the most recent message from Andros on http://northwestpassage2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/week-10-can-mv-andros-complete.html?view=timeslide was

Quote

20150918-1200 hrs Departing Mercy Bay to attempt a westward Route 1 along the shore through the 2/10 sea ice around Cape Prince Alfred enroute to Sachs Harbour.

Winds are E5 so the ice must be drifting in from the sea current flow.
Outlook for the next 24 hours is E5 but changing Sat night to N5 so we are OK to proceed.

DTG 117 @~6 (dodging ice) = +19 hrs ETA Cape Prince Alfred 20150919-0700 hrs
Sunrise 7:14 MDT
5 POB, all well.

If the sea ice becomes greatly concentrated we will reverse course to the east and escape south in Prince of Wales Strait on Route 2.

There may be no updates for a while since I expect all of us will be busy with ice navigation.

diablobanquisa · « **Reply #139 on:** September 20, 2015, 12:32:51 AM »

New ice is starting to form at the Parry Channel:

diablobanquisa · « **Reply #140 on:** September 20, 2015, 12:39:31 AM »

McClure strait, september 18:

http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20150918T151049_8612_N_1.jpg

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #141 on:** September 20, 2015, 01:26:35 PM »

According to his website:

Quote

After 3 seasons, 2 wintering, 6 000km (3 700 miles), 165 days at sea, a Polar bear attack, a whale lift, winds ... Charles Hedrich has arrived around 4pm in Pond Inlet (Nunavut, Canada) this Wednesday 16th of September. He is now, the first man to have rowed solo the North-West Passage.

ghoti · « **Reply #142 on:** September 20, 2015, 05:13:10 PM »

The characterization of this huge adventure as completing the Northwest Passage is being challenged because the eastern end point is neither Greenland nor some point south of the Arctic Circle.

Still a massive accomplishment.

Andreas T · « **Reply #143 on:** September 21, 2015, 12:20:34 AM »

MV Andros has reached Sachs Harbour having come through Mc Clure Strait.
http://northwestpassage2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/week-11-can-mv-andros-complete.html?view=timeslide

anotheramethyst · « **Reply #144 on:** September 22, 2015, 09:52:10 PM »

Quote from: ghoti on September 20, 2015, 05:13:10 PM

The characterization of this huge adventure as completing the Northwest Passage is being challenged because the eastern end point is neither Greenland nor some point south of the Arctic Circle.

Still a massive accomplishment.

wow!! it IS still an accomplishment. i just finished reading "a pearl in the storm" which is about the first woman to row across the atlantic. very inspiring story.

FrankS · « **Reply #145 on:** September 26, 2015, 04:57:42 AM »

I thought the people reading this thread would be interested in this article titled "Ice thickness in the Northwest Passage" in Geophysical Reserach Letters:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL065704/full

(found out about it because I know the second authour)

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #146 on:** September 26, 2015, 10:38:26 AM »

Thanks for the heads up Frank. Interesting indeed!

Quote

Global climate models with their coarse resolution likely have difficulty capturing intricate sea ice dynamic processes within the narrow channels of the CAA. Specifically, the import, survival, and thickness of MYI are difficult to predict and may in fact increase during the transition to a sea ice-free Arctic with more mobile ice conditions in the Queen Elizabeth Islands which are located between the Arctic Ocean and NWP. Presumably, MYI from the Arctic Ocean will be more heavily ridged and thicker than locally formed MYI, posing greater danger to transiting ships than locally grown MYI.

ghoti · « **Reply #147 on:** October 04, 2015, 05:23:46 AM »

Quote

Today is October 1, 2015 and many routes still remain open today... amazing... never seen such a long period of navigation... TIPPING POINT? THE ARCTIC IS OPEN FOR SHIPPING BUSINESS... if you build it will they come? Time tells all.

Says the Northwest Passage 2015 blog
http://northwestpassage2015.blogspot.ca/2015/10/which-one-of-seven-northwest-passage.html

dmarcus · « **Reply #148 on:** October 09, 2015, 06:25:14 AM »

Now it's a week later, and the October 8 AMSR2 images still show both the Northern Sea Route and the southern NWP route open. But probably not for long at all ...

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #149 on:** April 07, 2016, 01:10:11 AM »

Somewhat earlier than usual, my initial NWP analysis for 2016:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-northwest-passage-in-2016/

Quote

Our coverage of the Northwest Passage is starting somewhat earlier then usual in 2016. That’s because an educational comment of mine seems to have gone permanently missing over at Andrew Montford’s blog.

Here's last year's final video: