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andy_t_roo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1200 on: June 12, 2014, 11:49:33 PM »
The air temperature sensor on IMB 2013B north of Barrow is still reading below zero, but the thermistors tell a different story:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2014-imbs/#2014B

There's still 9 cm of snow on top of the ice, but bottom melt started on May 20th.

It looks like there is no thermal mass there, with the entire thickness at about melting temperature.
 melting 10cm of ice takes about the same energy as raising 8m of water 1c, or 25km of (dry) air 1c ( that is, a column of water/air the same area as the ice which losses thickness).

Does this mean that the biggest energy change in the system isn't going to be easily observable in temperature graphs, as until the ice melts it will buffer the sea and air temps around -1?

It does mean that we can estimate 'torch'effects : wind of 25 km per hr well melt 10 cm of ice per hour for the first 5km (I don't know how much 'contract thickness' we can assume) for each degree. The dot product of wind velocity and temperature gradient should allow a ballpark estimate of air related melt effects.

Anyone know if there is enough data out there to validate a model like this?

Blizzard_of_Oz

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1201 on: June 13, 2014, 08:15:16 AM »
1.  Do the SST measuring methods accurately capture the surface temp of ice in it's various forms, snow, and melt ponds of various depths as compared to open areas of sea water?

If you're thinking about the NCEP SST images on the graphs page, this should be the method description:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/description.shtml



2) - 2M temperature is mostly observed and then intrapolated directly between stations where they exist, but where they do not, is where various algorithms come into play.

To add to the previously supplied information .... 2m temperature (T2M) fields are made in various ways, so it depends on exactly which product one is talking about.
As was noted, the T2M's shown by DMI are essentially the ECMWF ("Euro model") T2M analysis. The method is described in Section 9.2 of the IFS CY40r1 data assimilation documentation: http://old.ecmwf.int/research/ifsdocs/CY40r1/IFSPart2.pdf

A simplified way to think of it is:
Analysis field = background field (e.g. most recent model forecast of T2M for the analysis time)  +  "adjustment" or "blending" via data assimilation of observations at analysis time. The assimilation method for the T2M field is optimal interpolation (OI). OI performs the blending step in this case (it's not a direct interpolation between stations). The amount of adjustment made at a model point is a function of its distance from observations. One aim of OI is to maximise independent information; as an example if two stations are right next to each other they will (combined) receive weighting equivalent to a single station. There are many details (such as relative error weighting) that have not been mentioned here - see the IFS docs if interested.

There are few buoys north of 75N that report to the GTS (global telecommunication system) so the DMI 80-90N temperature result is likely to be more model than observation (but don't know exactly what data is used in the assimilation). Only ocean observations are used over ocean areas.

It would seem (not sure) these are the currently operational buoys
ftp://iabp.apl.washington.edu/pub/IABP/DailyMaps/OLDMAPSTABLES/2014Jun10.pt.spit.table.txt.html  and those with a "Y" in the P? and/or T? columns report pressure and temperature.

Not sure this image has been update??
ftp://iabp.apl.washington.edu/pub/IABP/DailyMaps/OLDMAPSTABLES/2014Jun11.dailymap.np.60day.jpg

Hopefully this has not created additional confusion.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1202 on: June 13, 2014, 11:15:54 AM »
Both the Euro and GFS go epic on the CAB in day 4-5.


Classic land to arctic torch.

they and their ensembles and the such go on and continue to roll the entire arctic.



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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1203 on: June 13, 2014, 12:20:15 PM »
Does this mean that the biggest energy change in the system isn't going to be easily observable in temperature graphs, as until the ice melts it will buffer the sea and air temps around -1?

Based on way things worked out last year I'd agree with that. It's already pretty tricky to see where the ice/water interface is for 2014B just from the thermistor readings. Here's how 2012G fared last summer. It's still going strong (although some sensors have failed) and at the end of summer 2013 the ice was still over 2m thick:

http://GreaWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2013-imbs/#2012G
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slow wing

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1204 on: June 13, 2014, 01:24:03 PM »
...Classic land to arctic torch.


Surely the sun is a better torch than the wind in June and July?


Near the Summer solstice, my instinct is to look at high pressure over the CAB - presumably bringing clear skies - as the best predictor of enhanced ice loss to follow.


Fair?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1205 on: June 13, 2014, 01:32:19 PM »
It would seem (not sure) these are the currently operational buoys

This is the up to date Ice Tethered Profiler map:



The yellow ones are still fully functional. SailWX reports the active IABP buoy data. E.g.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=48506
« Last Edit: June 13, 2014, 01:43:15 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1206 on: June 13, 2014, 01:42:37 PM »
A quick look around the arctic today reveals some big changes underway.  While the basin wide melt isn't expected to begin until about Monday.  Important priming and noticeable changes are taking place.

1.  The CAB region is now and for the foreseeable future going above 0C during the heating of the day.  In a few days based on the short term models this will quickly turn into a 24/7 thing and that 0C will likely be more like 2C during the day and 0-1C at night. 

Without an abrupt change in the computer models very quick and dramatic changes to the CAB are about to take place. 

In the mean time winds are favorable for the ice to be pushed away from the shore and open up more water today. 

After today winds become relatively benign over the Beaufort side of the CAB while the rest of the CAB will feature soft but flushing/off shore winds which will aid in spreading the ice out in the CAB a bit.

Between day 2-3 is when things change big time wind and temp wise.

These graphics are time based around peak heating in the CAB/Western NA side.  Remember that before you make broad based conclusions about the arctic where it's dusk or twilight.








2.  The ESS/Chuchki region will experience stout off shore winds.  We are likely to see the crumbled ice between the two seas move off the shore nicely.  This will probably in combo with presumably Hudson/Baffin loss bring a century drop to Jaxa.

The off shore winds slowly slide from the far Eastern Laptev/Western ESS to the Chukchi by 72 hours.

3.  The Hudson/Baffin region gets a hell of a lot warmer today and going forward.  Which should cause some big ice losses over the next week in that region.  I dunno maybe 500-600K total.  If not then it's the most stubborn craptacular ice I've seen in the region since I started tracking the melt.  Probably thicker than normal from the cold persistent winter.

I think we might pretty much see the Baffin melt out within 7-10 days from now.

There will probably be some clumps of thicker ice somewhere pushed around by the wind.  But with a blow torch Southerly flow off waters running way above normal the remaining ice going to vamoose.




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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1207 on: June 13, 2014, 02:12:27 PM »
...Classic land to arctic torch.


Surely the sun is a better torch than the wind in June and July?


Near the Summer solstice, my instinct is to look at high pressure over the CAB - presumably bringing clear skies - as the best predictor of enhanced ice loss to follow.


Fair?


Depends on the heat carrying capacity of that wind and it's relative position to the water/ice it's going to hit after it leaves land.  In 2012 we saw off shore flow torches in the CAB decimate upwards of 4M ice that melted outright.

Without the land heat it wouldn't of happened.  I think a double whammy of both is the ultimate killer.  The models are eying in on this.

You can see the long fetch Southerly flow just unloading on the CAB. 




I got a nickname for all my guns
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1208 on: June 13, 2014, 05:52:20 PM »
...Classic land to arctic torch.


Surely the sun is a better torch than the wind in June and July?

Sun alone does not tell you the story. If you are out in the sun surround by white snow and ice. you can get sun burned by the uv at the same time you can get frost bite from the cold. To melt ice fast your best bet is sun, high temps, dark colour to change uv to heat and warm winds. The winds actually become more important in a fast thaw for the same reasons why wind on a hot day keeps you cool. The wind keeps the air moving and stops trapped micro-micro climates from forming that interfere with the melt. Unless of course you get conditions for dense ground fog then you want neither sun nor wind.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1209 on: June 13, 2014, 06:08:57 PM »
Air temperatures in the Beaufort are positive today. The thermistors on IMB buoy 2014C are stuck in a snow drift 50 cm deep:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2014-imbs/#2014C

2014C is nearer the heart of the Beaufort than 2014B. Bottom melt started on June 2nd, and the ice is currently 193 cm thick.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1210 on: June 13, 2014, 06:21:41 PM »
NSIDC single day extent had close to a -200K drop.

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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1211 on: June 13, 2014, 06:32:07 PM »
Cold and cloudy weather seems to persist in the Arctic for the next 48 hours. We are now almost at the level of 2013 due to NSIDC...

I shall be very surprised if the Arctic will be "torched" if the long-range forecasts turn out to be correct!! Given how the forecasts have continuously delayed the "Arctic blow" I think this will continue and that we won't see the HP materialize and become as big as the forecasts hint about.

Latest SIE drop according to JAXA was terrible small, e.g the drop between June 6 and 7 which only 628 km2. I haven't found any other June value drop that have been so awkwardly small!! Does anyone know whether this was some kind of record??

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1212 on: June 13, 2014, 06:59:38 PM »
Both the Euro and GFS go epic on the CAB in day 4-5.


Classic land to arctic torch.

they and their ensembles and the such go on and continue to roll the entire arctic.



As of the Friday 13 06Z initialisation the high you show on next Friday doesn't happen.

I know it's tempting, but perhaps it's best to follow the rule of thumb I use at the moment - I ignore forecasts beyond three days and only take day three as an indication if both GFS and ECMWF show roughly the same thing.

If something happens it will happen and we'll see it, right now the atmosphere doesn't look like its in a predictable mood, or that it feels like switching to a different mode.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1213 on: June 13, 2014, 07:10:08 PM »
a rossby wave break near alaska sets up the blocking pattern... the process is already happening and it has good model agreement. being cautious about model output past day 3 may have been a good idea 15-20 years ago but the models are much better now and continuously improving

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1214 on: June 13, 2014, 07:15:41 PM »
ChrisReynolds: I agree with you!! If there had been a more stable weather situation we could have been spanning the long-range forecasts in a better way but as the conditions right now are so slippery I think we have to limit ourselves to the next 48-72 hours. Once the GFS and EURO starts to show the same thing in a couple of runs we may give it a bigger shot to actually occur. Right now those forecasts beyond 4-5 days have shown to be completely useless as the warm air entrainment into the Arctic have been constantly delayed for a while now...

I do admit it's tempting to look at longer range as we all (I suppose!) wants to see some more action in the Arctic...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1215 on: June 13, 2014, 07:28:20 PM »
a rossby wave break near alaska sets up the blocking pattern... the process is already happening and it has good model agreement. being cautious about model output past day 3 may have been a good idea 15-20 years ago but the models are much better now and continuously improving

Shazzzammm!!!





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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1216 on: June 13, 2014, 07:46:07 PM »
a rossby wave break near alaska sets up the blocking pattern... the process is already happening and it has good model agreement. being cautious about model output past day 3 may have been a good idea 15-20 years ago but the models are much better now and continuously improving

15 to 20 years ago it would have been 24 hours, 48 with stable conditions. I'm just basing what I say on comparing GFS and ECMWF over early June. Right now conditions are unstable.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1217 on: June 13, 2014, 09:04:20 PM »
Chris,

I would have to disagree with the 24-48 hour statement even at 15-20 years ago, especially at the 500mb level, where they tend to do better without all of the ageostrophic adjustments that occur in the boundary layer. Forky's a trained meteorologist, and being one myself, I would back him up on his statement. I used them back then, the verification scores to day 3-4 were good enough to use as generally reliable guidance. They're better now, but they're a tool, and like any tool, there's a right way and a wrong way to use each one.

The verification scores tanked pretty hard in late May, but have recovered slightly since then. We should see them recover as we get towards the solstice and July (as is fairly normal). In this particular case, since the wave break has already occured and most of the action has and will occur near/over the RAOB network, we can place a little more creedance in the solutions. That doesn't mean they won't back off the uber torch in the D6+ range, but the front portion (D3-D5) portion of this event seems likely, especially since the OP and ensemble runs are locked into general agreement now.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1218 on: June 13, 2014, 09:06:14 PM »
The EURO continues to back the "heat wave" and the 12z run OP doesn't really show some big heating up of the Arctic basin.. The conditions are so unstable right now that the only thing we can do and should do is to limit our discussions for the next 72 hours...

//LMV

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1219 on: June 13, 2014, 09:42:58 PM »
Csnavywx,

I do hope both you and Forkyfork are right and I've just got bored of having my hopes raised. As for 15 to 20 years ago, I'm probably forgetting how long ago it was that I was an antenna rigger (we tried scheduling work using long range charts and gave up on it), a quick calculation shows that was nearly 30 years ago, I forget how time flies.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1220 on: June 13, 2014, 09:53:57 PM »
The EURO continues to back the "heat wave" and the 12z run OP doesn't really show some big heating up of the Arctic basin.. The conditions are so unstable right now that the only thing we can do and should do is to limit our discussions for the next 72 hours...
//LMV

Your analysis is not correct. 

The only place that has any chance to stay below 0C on these images is North of GIS towards the pole.

Are you accounting for the Stout Southerly flows right off the most ideal land regions to transport copious amounts of heat into the arctic?

Or wind flow showing flushing and compaction? 

In the short term the ESS/Chukchi get hit by another round of big warmth and off shore flow.  Opening up water and bringing more surface melt.

The CAB goes above 0C everyday and after day 3 it goes to 24/7 0C+ with terrible winds.

The euro has some issues with how to handle the cut off that gets South of an HP that is in the England area.  Messing up the -NAO and meridional flow.

The Euro is likely over doing this feature and weakening the ridging near GIS to fast.

 










Looking at JAXA so far today and the huge NSIDC drop we will probably have a bigger drop on Jaxa today than we get the rest of the month.
We will see.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1221 on: June 13, 2014, 09:58:02 PM »
I agree that the Arctic split that has appeared in some model runs lately is relatively trustworthy. They appear in many of the EC ensemble runs which is the best model to do this kind of assessment. I give it a 50-60% probability of occuring - maybe even more interesting - will it get stuck as the Greenland High 2007-2012?

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OT WARNING
« Reply #1222 on: June 13, 2014, 11:18:10 PM »
The ice age has started Netherlands 5 Spain 1. The Futbol world has been turned upside down.
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Re: OT WARNING
« Reply #1223 on: June 14, 2014, 12:07:58 AM »
The ice age has started Netherlands 5 Spain 1. The Futbol world has been turned upside down.
Oh my word....
This space for Rent.

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Re: OT WARNING
« Reply #1224 on: June 14, 2014, 12:24:19 AM »
The ice age has started Netherlands 5 Spain 1. The Futbol world has been turned upside down.

When he opened the sixth seal, I looked, and behold, there was a great earthquake, and the sun became black as sackcloth, the full moon became like blood

Revelations 6:12



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+3C today

LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1225 on: June 14, 2014, 01:29:28 AM »
Sorry about taking topic adrift, but a) that was a major trouncing suffered by Spain b) the world GDP takes a noticeable dip http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704463504575301160054229610 unless of course you bring in the joy or sorrow of watching a match.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1226 on: June 14, 2014, 04:41:12 AM »

Surely the sun is a better torch than the wind in June and July?

Near the Summer solstice, my instinct is to look at high pressure over the CAB - presumably bringing clear skies - as the best predictor of enhanced ice loss to follow.


Fair?

Slow wing

You are by no means the first to come to that conclusion. Various posters here look to high pressure systems and clear skies as precursors to high melt.  Just recently this comment was made “higher pressure, of course will lead to warmth and melt”.  In fact the opposite is the case. In high latitude Arctic regions cloudy skies give more downwelling radiation than clear skies.

I am not the first to make note of this. Ktonine on another thread said last year:

Quote
Clouds can be just as deadly to ice as sun.

In clear skies incoming solar radiation that  is reflected off the surface usually goes up and out.  Under cloudy skies that which is reflected often gets bounced back down by the clouds for a second (or third) pass.  So the total energy absorbed can be higher under cloudy skies than under clear skies. This is usually the case when the snow/ice albedo is high. 

This was followed by a comment by Chris Reynolds:

Quote
It's not just that, direct rays at a low angle are reflected from a wet surface. However cloud scatters incoming rays so more incident light is at steeper angles of incidence. Furthermore clouds back-radiate infra-red and can have a warming effect dependent on ice content and height, i.e. Francis & Hunter 2007, Changes in the fabric of the Arctic’s greenhouse blanket.


This was first noted by Ambach (1974) who wrote: “the daily totals of net radiation balance of a snow surface with high albedo increase with increasing cloudiness." The paradox has been put this way: “clouds tend to warm rather than cool the surface”. Rossow and Zhang (1995) and Curry et al (1996) who looked at Arctic cloud and radiation characteristics clearly showed that clouds have a net warming effect on the surface in the Arctic.

Recently Frances et. al. (2005) looking at clues in the variability in ice content came to the conclusion that “counter-intuitively anomalies in the down welling shortwave flux are negatively correlated with ice retreat”. i.e. less shortwave anomalies is associated with less ice. 

That is the paradox, whereas in middle latitudes or over lower albedo surfaces, incoming shortwave radiation from the sun in clear sky conditions overwhelms the outgoing longwave radiation, in high latitude the large incidence angles and high reflection reduces incoming solar radiation so much that in the summer months more warming occurs on a cloudy day. 

A paper published in 2008 suggested that anomalous high pressure and more downwelling shortwave radiation caused the record 2007 ice extent low. But more recent studies by Dong et al 2013 comparing the arctic sea extents of 2007 (low) and 1996 (high) showed the opposite was the case - it was the downwelling longwave radiation due clouds and water vapor which was the cause of the 2007 minimum. They showed the cloud fraction in 2007 was over 7% higher than the long term average as was the precipitable water vapor.

Often commentators here predict sunny skies to lead to a high melt but they forget Ambach’s paradox. True, open water, melt ponds and thin ice all have an impact on albedo and will increase warming, but where there is ice, clear skies promote cooling.

Lord M Vader has noted
Quote
I just looked at the DMI temp graphs for the years 1958-2014. NO other year have had such big negative anomalies this time at year in the area covering 80-90N(!) In addition, no other year have even been close to those negative anomalies...

The Ice King posted plots of pressures comparing 2013 with 2014 so far and it is remarkable how much higher the pressures have been this year. High pressure means clear skies and lower temperatures and less melt. That is the Arctic radiation paradox. Of course many other factors come into play but that may also give an explanation why the predicted “June cliff” has been only a gentle slide so far.


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1227 on: June 14, 2014, 06:29:10 AM »
High pressure systems not only let more sunlight in - they cause air to descend which causes warming.  Perhaps we should look more in the mid levels as what I understand is that it is upper level ridging that causes the strongest descending air and worst heat waves.  There does seem to be a strong link between high pressure and increased ice loss in the last few years - but some significant exceptions with GAC 2012 at the top.

Jaxa is showing the first significant sign of surface melting within the Arctic basin (exlcuding ESS area fast ice).  This is later than 2012 and 2007, but about par for other years since 2007.  Interestingly enough I would judge 2013 to have the third most significant surface melting within the Arctic basin as judged by Jaxa for this date.

At the same time significant areas of reduced concentration are appearing all through the Atlantic/European side of the central Arctic basin, similar to what happened in 2013.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1228 on: June 14, 2014, 06:46:48 AM »
High pressure systems not only let more sunlight in - they cause air to descend which causes warming.  Perhaps we should look more in the mid levels as what I understand is that it is upper level ridging that causes the strongest descending air and worst heat waves.  There does seem to be a strong link between high pressure and increased ice loss in the last few years - but some significant exceptions with GAC 2012 at the top.

When air descends in high pressure systems it also dries and this adds to the radiation loss.
As far as 2012 is concerned Dong et al (2013) note that the new record low for 2012 was mainly triggered by a superstorm over the Central Arctic Ocean in early August which caused mechanical ice deformation and subsequent ice loss. In that respect it is an outlier and overshadows any influence of cloud cover etc.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1229 on: June 14, 2014, 07:15:56 AM »
I tried hunting a few of the references you posted using google scholar, couldn't find some of them (I'd especially like to look at dong et al 2013), and found nothing definitive on the topic.  I did find a paper by Shupe et al in 2004 (link) which does some detailed analysis on this topic and finds that in the Arctic clouds cause cooling except for 'a few weeks in the middle summer' when the sun is strong enough that direct solar radiation is more important.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1230 on: June 14, 2014, 07:46:26 AM »
I tried hunting a few of the references you posted using google scholar, couldn't find some of them (I'd especially like to look at dong et al 2013), and found nothing definitive on the topic.  I did find a paper by Shupe et al in 2004 (link) which does some detailed analysis on this topic and finds that in the Arctic clouds cause cooling except for 'a few weeks in the middle summer' when the sun is strong enough that direct solar radiation is more important.

I didn't quote the full titles and links in my post as I thought that was an overkill.
Here is the title and link for the one you asked for.

Critical mechanisms for the formation of extreme arctic sea-ice extent in the summers of 2007 and 1996  Xiquan Dong, Behnjamin J. Zib, Baike Xi, Ryan Stanfield, Yi Deng, Xiangdong Zhang, Bing Lin, Charles N. Long.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1920-8

Any others let me know.

 

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1231 on: June 14, 2014, 08:10:06 AM »
I tried hunting a few of the references you posted using google scholar, couldn't find some of them (I'd especially like to look at dong et al 2013), and found nothing definitive on the topic.  I did find a paper by Shupe et al in 2004 (link) which does some detailed analysis on this topic and finds that in the Arctic clouds cause cooling except for 'a few weeks in the middle summer' when the sun is strong enough that direct solar radiation is more important.

I didn't quote the full titles and links in my post as I thought that was an overkill.
Here is the title and link for the one you asked for.

Critical mechanisms for the formation of extreme arctic sea-ice extent in the summers of 2007 and 1996  Xiquan Dong, Behnjamin J. Zib, Baike Xi, Ryan Stanfield, Yi Deng, Xiangdong Zhang, Bing Lin, Charles N. Long.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1920-8

Any others let me know.

Paywall free PDF here.
http://faculty.atmos.und.edu/dong/papers/10.1007_s00382-013-1920-8.pdf

Thanks K Largo, I've not read that one yet.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1232 on: June 14, 2014, 08:10:35 AM »
Here comes the boom.

Before the boom.  There is plenty of action going on.  The CAB is warming above freezing everyday. It's raining over parts of the beaufort right now.

The ESS gets warmth and off shore flow that bleeds into the Chukchi over the next few days.

A very strong and small vortex is going tear the ice up over the ESS while also pushing it away from the shore and compacting in the Chukchi.

The Baffin also gets smoked which has a surprisingly large amount of almost melted ice left.








When you combine the wind and warmth over the Beaufort/Western CAB.  We could realistically have the Western CAB in worse shape by June 25th then in all of 2013.

Because of the HP position and Southerly flow there won't be a night time radiational cooling break where the surface of the ice freezes back up for a few hours.

2013 had essentially no open water until after June 24th.  Here is yesterday compared to 11 days from now in 2013.   






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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1233 on: June 14, 2014, 09:47:41 AM »
Hopefully that's good enough for Lord Vader.




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1234 on: June 14, 2014, 12:26:49 PM »
Big cracks in Laptev fast ice.

I'm expecting a lot more than a few of cracks within a week as the signs I mentioned a week ago (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg27815.html#msg27815) are now there (best seen in yesterday's MODIS images).

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1235 on: June 14, 2014, 01:18:44 PM »
After being essentially stationary north of Kap Morris Jesup for several weeks IMB buoy 2014D has just started heading off in the general direction of the Fram Strait. There's no bottom melt as yet however:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2014-imbs/#2014D
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1236 on: June 14, 2014, 04:00:54 PM »

Surely the sun is a better torch than the wind in June and July?

Near the Summer solstice, my instinct is to look at high pressure over the CAB - presumably bringing clear skies - as the best predictor of enhanced ice loss to follow.


Fair?

Slow wing

You are by no means the first to come to that conclusion. Various posters here look to high pressure systems and clear skies as precursors to high melt.  Just recently this comment was made “higher pressure, of course will lead to warmth and melt”.  In fact the opposite is the case. In high latitude Arctic regions cloudy skies give more downwelling radiation than clear skies.

I am not the first to make note of this. Ktonine on another thread said last year:

Quote
Clouds can be just as deadly to ice as sun.

In clear skies incoming solar radiation that  is reflected off the surface usually goes up and out.  Under cloudy skies that which is reflected often gets bounced back down by the clouds for a second (or third) pass.  So the total energy absorbed can be higher under cloudy skies than under clear skies. This is usually the case when the snow/ice albedo is high. 

This was followed by a comment by Chris Reynolds:

Quote
It's not just that, direct rays at a low angle are reflected from a wet surface. However cloud scatters incoming rays so more incident light is at steeper angles of incidence. Furthermore clouds back-radiate infra-red and can have a warming effect dependent on ice content and height, i.e. Francis & Hunter 2007, Changes in the fabric of the Arctic’s greenhouse blanket.


This was first noted by Ambach (1974) who wrote: “the daily totals of net radiation balance of a snow surface with high albedo increase with increasing cloudiness." The paradox has been put this way: “clouds tend to warm rather than cool the surface”. Rossow and Zhang (1995) and Curry et al (1996) who looked at Arctic cloud and radiation characteristics clearly showed that clouds have a net warming effect on the surface in the Arctic.

Recently Frances et. al. (2005) looking at clues in the variability in ice content came to the conclusion that “counter-intuitively anomalies in the down welling shortwave flux are negatively correlated with ice retreat”. i.e. less shortwave anomalies is associated with less ice. 

That is the paradox, whereas in middle latitudes or over lower albedo surfaces, incoming shortwave radiation from the sun in clear sky conditions overwhelms the outgoing longwave radiation, in high latitude the large incidence angles and high reflection reduces incoming solar radiation so much that in the summer months more warming occurs on a cloudy day. 

A paper published in 2008 suggested that anomalous high pressure and more downwelling shortwave radiation caused the record 2007 ice extent low. But more recent studies by Dong et al 2013 comparing the arctic sea extents of 2007 (low) and 1996 (high) showed the opposite was the case - it was the downwelling longwave radiation due clouds and water vapor which was the cause of the 2007 minimum. They showed the cloud fraction in 2007 was over 7% higher than the long term average as was the precipitable water vapor.

Often commentators here predict sunny skies to lead to a high melt but they forget Ambach’s paradox. True, open water, melt ponds and thin ice all have an impact on albedo and will increase warming, but where there is ice, clear skies promote cooling.

Lord M Vader has noted
Quote
I just looked at the DMI temp graphs for the years 1958-2014. NO other year have had such big negative anomalies this time at year in the area covering 80-90N(!) In addition, no other year have even been close to those negative anomalies...

The Ice King posted plots of pressures comparing 2013 with 2014 so far and it is remarkable how much higher the pressures have been this year. High pressure means clear skies and lower temperatures and less melt. That is the Arctic radiation paradox. Of course many other factors come into play but that may also give an explanation why the predicted “June cliff” has been only a gentle slide so far.


Not true. The paper you cite is basing its conclusion over a period from June 15th - September 15th. It's certainly true that in late August and in September, clouds have a net warming effect. However, in June and July, they have a net cooling effect as is clearly seen by comparison on June and July SLP to temperature patterns and also the fact that high pressure tends to lead to faster PIOMAS volume drops in May and June.

So we still expect clear skies to accelerate the melting process at this time of year and cloudy skies to slow it down, as we saw in 2013.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1237 on: June 14, 2014, 04:37:38 PM »
Here comes the boom...

I'm taking a wait and see approach before I believe the model output. While the arctic part is believable the 850mb temps over the top of the GIS are kind of...out there. For several frames it's showing +10C at 850mb over the heart of Greenland.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1238 on: June 14, 2014, 04:41:51 PM »
I certainly don't think it is right to say that Baffin/Hudson is lagging behind anymore. CT is showing that both regions are below the average and, as one can see on this comparison with 2013, there are especially large deficits in Baffin.



It also seems pretty clear that the melt this year is not progressing like 2013, but more like 2012-2007 with less ice on the Pacific side and more on the Atlantic. Too bad that Uni Bremen's archive only span from August 2012 to the present.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1239 on: June 14, 2014, 05:36:04 PM »
For several weeks I have been looking at models here that forecast dire conditions 1 week out which never seem to materialize. I am now skipping these posts.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1240 on: June 14, 2014, 05:53:25 PM »
Shared Humanity: agreed!!

And for The falls for medium range modeled dipoles Everytime king post if this would be good enough for me. The answer is NO! Normally I would have said that it was really good but due to the constant delay of the Arctic heating I will remain very sceptical to this scenario and even more sceptical to see such conditions to persist.

If this trend continues in the forecasts tomorrow, on monday and tuesday I might reconsider my statement. I do admit that the Arctic seemsb to warm up now which shouldn't be too surprising given how extremely cold it has been so far in june north of 80N.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1241 on: June 14, 2014, 06:10:07 PM »
Those models have been less than 50% correct on their 24 hours forecasts lately for where I live so it is no surprise to me that the 5 to 10 day forecasts have been so far off for a tougher area to predict like the Arctic. I've long since stopped reading posts which focus on the long range forecasts.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1242 on: June 14, 2014, 06:17:56 PM »
Those models have been less than 50% correct on their 24 hours forecasts lately for where I live so it is no surprise to me that the 5 to 10 day forecasts have been so far off for a tougher area to predict like the Arctic. I've long since stopped reading posts which focus on the long range forecasts.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1243 on: June 14, 2014, 06:18:15 PM »
Too bad that Uni Bremen's archive only span from August 2012 to the present.

There a variety of different archives at Uni Bremen. Have you checked out all the possible combinations? By way of example:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/archivebrowse.php?date=20070614&region=Arctic&hemisphere=n&sensor=AMSRE&ctab=visual#map



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1244 on: June 14, 2014, 06:24:16 PM »
Too bad that Uni Bremen's archive only span from August 2012 to the present.

There a variety of different archives at Uni Bremen. Have you checked out all the possible combinations? By way of example:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/archivebrowse.php?date=20070614&region=Arctic&hemisphere=n&sensor=AMSRE&ctab=visual#map



That image actually has more than a passing resemblance to conditions we see currently.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1245 on: June 14, 2014, 06:26:52 PM »

Not true. The paper you cite is basing its conclusion over a period from June 15th - September 15th. It's certainly true that in late August and in September, clouds have a net warming effect. However, in June and July, they have a net cooling effect as is clearly seen by comparison on June and July SLP to temperature patterns and also the fact that high pressure tends to lead to faster PIOMAS volume drops in May and June.

So we still expect clear skies to accelerate the melting process at this time of year and cloudy skies to slow it down, as we saw in 2013.

I won't claim to have all the answers and I am sure there is more to be said on the subject. But I do cite more than one paper. Have you any papers to prove your last statement and that disproves mine? That would lead to an interesting discussion. 


Note that I don’t suggest that clear skies actually cause net cooling in summer months, but what I was pointing out is that there is less summer warming in clear skies over ice with high albedo in the Arctic than there is under cloudy skies.

Of course other factors will come into play as you can read in the following paper I quoted:
Clues to variability in Arctic minimum sea ice extent.  Jennifer A. Francis, Elias Hunter, Jeffrey R. Key and Xuanji Wang. Geophysical Research Letters 2005. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL024376/pdf

There are others:
Robert Stone. Variations in western Arctic temperatures in response to cloud radiative and synoptic-scale influences.   Journal of Geophysical Research Sept 27, 1997
He notes:
“even in April when the daily mean solar flux is large, clouds tend to warm rather than cool the surface affirming what Ambach (1974) referred to as the “radiation paradox”.

M. Nardino, A. Orsini, R. Pirazzini, F. Calzolari, T. Georgiadis and V. Levizzani. Cloud Radiative forcing and effects on local climate (2000)
They concluded:
“The main result of the present work is that during Arctic and Antarctic summer the net radiation increased with the cloud cover index. This phenomenon is the result of the asymmetry in the dependence of the net shortwave and longwave radiation on the radiative cloud properties and cloud amount”.

Michiel van den Broeke, Paul Smeets, Janneke Ettema, and Peter Kuipers Munneke. Journal of Geophysical Research (2008). “Surface radiation balance in the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet”
We read:
“The total cloud effect is positive at all sites, i.e., clouds tend to increase Rnet at the surface. This is sometimes referred to as the “radiation paradox” [Ambach, 1974], and is a result of the high surface albedo, which limits the (negative) SW cloud effect so that the (positive) LW cloud effect dominates the total cloud effect”.

I don't get the impression that the paradox does not apply in certain months. Although, as I have allready noted, open water, melt ponds, thin ice etc will reduce albedo and then the effect does not apply. 

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1246 on: June 14, 2014, 06:36:30 PM »
Those models have been less than 50% correct on their 24 hours forecasts lately for where I live
how do you know?
so it is no surprise to me that the 5 to 10 day forecasts have been so far off for a tougher area to predict like the Arctic. I've long since stopped reading posts which focus on the long range forecasts.
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/composition-division

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1247 on: June 14, 2014, 06:50:12 PM »
Too bad that Uni Bremen's archive only span from August 2012 to the present.

There a variety of different archives at Uni Bremen. Have you checked out all the possible combinations? By way of example:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/archivebrowse.php?date=20070614&region=Arctic&hemisphere=n&sensor=AMSRE&ctab=visual#map


That image actually has more than a passing resemblance to conditions we see currently.


The CAB is going to look like that in a week.

that is probably all melt water on the ice.  That ice is a lot thicker than what we have out there now.

Area is going to drop like walking out the grand canyon.





The weather is already unfavorable in the hot spots and is flat out bad in a couple days.  Then it's off the races everywhere. 





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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1248 on: June 14, 2014, 06:58:22 PM »

Not true. The paper you cite is basing its conclusion over a period from June 15th - September 15th. It's certainly true that in late August and in September, clouds have a net warming effect. However, in June and July, they have a net cooling effect as is clearly seen by comparison on June and July SLP to temperature patterns and also the fact that high pressure tends to lead to faster PIOMAS volume drops in May and June.

So we still expect clear skies to accelerate the melting process at this time of year and cloudy skies to slow it down, as we saw in 2013.

I won't claim to have all the answers and I am sure there is more to be said on the subject. But I do cite more than one paper. Have you any papers to prove your last statement and that disproves mine? That would lead to an interesting discussion. 


Note that I don’t suggest that clear skies actually cause net cooling in summer months, but what I was pointing out is that there is less summer warming in clear skies over ice with high albedo in the Arctic than there is under cloudy skies.
<snippage>
I don't get the impression that the paradox does not apply in certain months. Although, as I have allready noted, open water, melt ponds, thin ice etc will reduce albedo and then the effect does not apply.

insolation - albedo - re-radiation + direct thermal transfer via import = net regional enthalpy change.

It's pretty straight forward.  The fiddly bits are figuring out exactly what does what to whom.  For amusement, let's consider the mechanism at a qualitative level as a thought experiment.

Clouds to present a serious barrier to re-radiation, and tend to put a lid on what energy does get through them - they are a bi-directional barrier.  Whether they are net positive or negative influence *is* directly tied to two things - incidence angle and length of day.  The shorter the day, the greater they would tend to be a positive influence.  To that end, this would imply that large scale import of moisture and cloud from lower latitudes in winter is a huge threat to the ice, even as they dump snow onto the ice.  I think we would find there is an almost absolute correlation between increased cloudiness and the astonishingly high positive temperature anomalies we saw last fall and winter.  While we had more open water in the fall, which favors rapid loss of heat captured during the melt season, add clouds and a skin of ice, and that heat now has a much "smaller" aperture to escape through.

The higher the incidence angle the greater they tend to be a negative influence.  Here I think a big factor is the concentration under the cloud.  The lower the concentration, the more clouds will increase regional albedo. 

Contrary wise, if concentration is high (fewer smaller leads), or there is significant snow cover on the ice, or both, even with complete cloud cover, your net energy balance will be better than it would be with clear skies.  The mechanic here ties back to the a number of factors.  First, clouds present a non-uniform, amorphous surface - you've got no (reasonably) well defined planes to reflect light.  You have much more random diffraction, and the redirection will have a higher potential of redirecting light into rather than out of the system. Second, the clouds present a much greater barrier to escaping energy than clear skies, for exactly the same reasons they reduce solar input.  Energy has no direct path back out of the atmosphere.  There are others as well, but with them we start drilling into quantitative analysis and my lack of depth on the subject would become more telling ;)

Similarly, these mechanics high albedo ice during periods of low solar incidence angle would capture more energy as well.

So, I think conclusions follow... 

Even during periods of high insolation, clouds can be a net positive factor over areas of ice with high concentration and high albedo.

Clouds influence as a positive feedback to melt diminishes geometrically with decreasing concentration and decreasing surface albedo

Clouds as a positive feedback increase geometrically both with decreasing insolation and lower solar incidence angles
« Last Edit: June 14, 2014, 07:20:18 PM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1249 on: June 14, 2014, 06:59:46 PM »
Every time I see a 5 day projection image, part of my brain dies.

Ice, you've put loads of posts about big melt explosions up over the last two weeks. None of them have materialized into anything.

Do you realize how much it damages your credibility?

Have you heard the story of the boy who cried wolf?

At this point it's highly irritating. You've drastically worsened the signal to noise ratio of information in posts.

I don't mean to be hostile or aggressive but could you maybe make another thread for these predictive assertions?