There are discussions whether there is a possibility to beat 2012. I looked at my earlier post #910 where I listed the numbers of SIE losses in July and August for the years 2003-2013. The three most significant SIE losses during July respectively August were:
July: -3,1 Mn km2 (2007); -2,9 Mn km2 (2009) and -2,85 Mn km2 (2012).
August: -2,5 Mn km2 (2012); -2,15 km2 (2008) and -2,0 Mn km2 (2004).
Whereas the SIE drop is about the same magnitude in size for July the numbers for August differs great.
Considering that we'll end up with a SIE about 9,4 Mn km2 per June 30. If we consider the ice melt to have the following numbers for July and August: -2,9 Mn km2 in July and -2,1 Mn km2 in August we would have a SIE of 4,4 Mn km2 per August 31. If we add about 400K drop in september we would end up at a minimum peaking at 4,0 Mn km2.
As we right now are behind 2012 in extent and 9,4 Mn km2 seems reasonable for June 30 a "perfect" melt would be -3,15 Mn km2 in July followed by a drop of -2,45 in August. Then we would have a SIE at 3,8 Mn km2 per August 31. A drop of 400 K would almost bring us down to 2012.
My conclusion: no chance that we'll beat 2012 unless there will be "perfect" melt conditions for now and on, especially in August. August 2012 presented almost perfect conditions with a GAC. I don't expect this to happen this year. Likely there is a 50-50 shot that we can beat 2007. Most realistic is that we get a minimum around 4 Mn km2. But: never say never!:)
Finally: the temps have almost reached zero now according to DMI. That was about time!! And a question for the big aces here on ASIF: how was the synoptic situation in Arctic in the summers of 1990 & 1991 which according to DMI and my subjective judgement were the two warmest summers for the POR since 1958? If my memory isn't entirely wrong we had a huge positive AO these two years, at least during the winters...