First a caveat......I don't know what I'm talking about.
Looking at the most recent area and extent numbers (extent is lower than 2013, area is slightly higher) I just don't see how we get anywhere close to 2012 or 2007 as some are suggesting. We are halfway through the month and the June swoon has yet to appear. The lower extent and higher area would suggest a degree of compactness that would seem to protect the ice that does exist. Everything I've read over the past year suggests that the early melt sets the stage for the final extent and area minimums. Haven't temperatures in the CAB been anomalously cold so far? Wouldn't the stubborn area measures suggest not a lot of melt ponding?
Factors you mention help to have less melt and higher minimum, yes. But there are other factors at play which contribute to the possibility for this year to be more melting than ever. I'll name some from the top of my head.
1. April 2014 was very warm in Siberia (
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/04 - we are talking some +5C anomalies here), and overall very warm in Northern hemisphere. This means, many areas which are usually "that much cold" - were not so cold this April, in and around Arctic. It'll take less energy to warm those things up to 0C - ergo, the remainder of the energy will be spent to melt more than otherwise possible. This means more and/or earlier melt things in the Arctic itself, as well as more meltwater discharge into the Arctic by Siberian (and not only Siberian) rivers, to name just a few effects;
2. El-Nino has arrived (some say), or at least has 90% change to arrive in a matter of weeks (others say). In terms of this melt season, the one certain impact - is higher temperatures for at least some of Arctic air masses because of El-Nino;
3. Lots of Arctic ice is fractured and (relatively) weakly re-frozen fields. More prone to fragmentation during storms;
4. There was significant (to say very least) increase of methane emissions in Arctic during fall 2013. Much of this extra methane is still there, creating extra greenhouse effect in the Arctic;
5. Much open water above much of Arctic continental shelves early, which likely means extra methane and certainly means extra albedo drop during max insolation weeks;
6. Ice volume is pretty much on par with 2012, last i've seen (PIOMASS data for this May);
7. CO2 levels are higher than ever - in particular, higher than in 2012.
And, of course, the trend and statistics. Last 10+ years, the trend is accelerating decrease of ASI. Seasonal variations apply, of course. Now 2012 was obviously a year with unusual melt-favorable conditions, while 2013 was a year with unusual melt-halting conditions (especially during August of both years). Probability theory says that it is unlikely we'd have an "unusual" year, and it is likely we'd get a "usual" year - in terms of weather, including August weather. In turn, the trend says that what was "unusually low minimum" for ASI in 2012 - is expected to be much more like a usual deal 2 years later (i.e. now).
