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Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3200 on: August 18, 2014, 03:52:20 PM »
The 00z GFS pushes a last surge of relatively warm air into the Pacific side.  I am not sure if area will respond much at this point.  I still think it gets down to around 3.6-3.75 km2 but that is in part because I think extent will get down to 4.6 mil km2 on jaxa.mg]

It would take a reversal of almost historic proportions for CT area to drop that much further. SIA has actually increased over the past week; I can't imagine it dropping another -900k or so from now through the minimum. The average decrease from yesterday through annual minimum over the past ten years has been about 530k. Such a drop now would put 2014 somewhere around 3.9 million. A minimum above 4 million km2 is also an increasing possibility. (Least on record: 150k [2005]; most: 1.03 million [1984]).

So far as JAXA extent, I'd go with about 4.7-4.9 million km2, though a minimum about 5 million km2 is by no means a stretch at this point.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3201 on: August 18, 2014, 05:55:14 PM »
The weather is getting really interesting now folks!

It seems that there may be at leats one surge of warm air to emerge over the Arctic. The GFS 06z run also hints of another surge of warm air to the end of the forecast period originating from NA. GFS 06z also shows the evolution of a small but intensive cyclone to develop by the end of the weekend. This cyclone should in that case be able to do some real damage to the ice in the periphery of the ESS which can't be too thick.

Even if the GFS runs only shows 180hours forecast one can get some hints by looking at the forecast for Europe ehich goes to 384 hours. Now, the GFS 06z run shows a switch more southerlies to hit Svalbard which would be interesting as it would yield compaction of the sea ice...

Also, I think we should be happy if the SIE drops below 5 Mn km2 given the recent years loss from this date and until the minima.

There are now some areas to keep an extra eye on due to AMSR Bremens sea ice map:

1. Kara Sea: the ice west of that island shoudl melt out completely soon.

2. Canadian Archipelago: is it possible that the Northwest Passage could get open in the next 1-3 weeks? Also, the area east of Amundsen Route should melt out almost completely.

3. Borderline Chukchi/Beaufort: if the melting continues for the next days or so we could see a big opening here which would put the stubbornish ice north of Fairbanks alone.

4. East Siberian Sea: should take a considerable damage if the forecasted cyclone enters the area with strong winds. We should see a good amount of melting nevertheless.

5. Central Arctic Basin north of Svalbard: this is an area where the ice between Franz Josefs land and Svalbard should be thick and have acted like a "wall" to protext the ice further north. One get the impression that a polynya may form later this month or early september. The ice concentration hasn't been solid 90-100% in that area..

These are the areas I'll keep my eyes on. What are your areas? :)

Just another note for ASIFs aces: how much is the area east of Greenland contributing to SIA and SIE? It seems to be crap! Could that crap ice be responsible for the stall in SIA?

cesium62

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3202 on: August 18, 2014, 07:43:53 PM »
Just another note for ASIFs aces: how much is the area east of Greenland contributing to SIA and SIE? It seems to be crap! Could that crap ice be responsible for the stall in SIA?

See post #3196.  Chris' analysis suggests the ESS and CAB are the main contributors to the stall and that Greenland is ever-so-slightly helping to avoid a stall.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3203 on: August 18, 2014, 08:03:59 PM »

It would take a reversal of almost historic proportions for CT area to drop that much further. SIA has actually increased over the past week;

I think that appearances can be deceiving - not only to amateurs such as myself peering at the imagery - but also to the algorithms which interpret the satellite data in order to produce both the pictures and the numbers.

I't easy to forget that when we look at CT, worldview, etc. we are not seeing a picture of the ice and the clouds and the water - rather we are seeing an interpretation of multi-spectral information from various instruments on various satellites at various times.

I think we can all agree that conditions this year are unusual. I also don't think I'm alone in my confusion when I see area apparently rising where there are no other indications that there is any freezing going on. This leads me to wonder if at least some of the apparent increase is an artifact of the processing which is not usually significant.

I'm exploring the hypothesis that satellite data at ~200M resolution might paint an unusually misleading picture of ice that is in the advanced stages of melting in-place, and/or unusually thin and frangible, and/or unusually mobile, with a size distribution which is small w.r.t the sensor resolution. I think it may be possible to validate it using only MODIS imagery over time - but unfortunately have very little time available to spend on it - so any results may only come after the fact :(

I'd be interested to hear whether others think this is something worth pursuing though...


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3204 on: August 18, 2014, 08:43:46 PM »
Visit every day and rarely comment. I find it bothersome when we begin to question the methods and accuracy of measurement when the melt  season does not go as expected.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3205 on: August 18, 2014, 09:59:42 PM »
Visit every day and rarely comment. I find it bothersome when we begin to question the methods and accuracy of measurement when the melt  season does not go as expected.

I find my self in the unusual position of disagreeing with you mildly.  The questioning going on is not universal, but relevant to how we understand SIA.   Our ability to measure SIE remains robust.

I think considering how the physical quality of the ice has changed, in particular over the last 3 years, some of the questions being raised are relevant.  Note also, the overall evaluation of where we will end up in September is still generally in line with what the instruments are telling us.  The key struggle is trying to understand the mechanisms producing positive feedbacks to ice retention.

I'm actually quite happy the apparent ice coverage has remained high.  It concerns me that I/we don't fully understand why, and what hidden consequences are behind it.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3206 on: August 18, 2014, 10:07:48 PM »
Personally I believe that the mechanisms we use to determine the presence or absence of ice have an element of assumption that ice will conform to a known pattern.

As things change in the Arctic, the way of measuring and estimating will also have to change to reflect reality.  That, as I'm assured, is good science.  It starts with questioning whether we are doing the right thing and ends with the evidence that we either are, or are not.

This year, however, I believe that we are generally seeing, what we measure as ice, increasing.

What we may need to look at in the future is what we measure as ice.  What we need to know, to forecast, is how they dynamics of what we measure work.  Today I'm not sure what we are measuring fits the dynamics of the current pack.

Time will tell.  Surprises will be there along the way.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3207 on: August 18, 2014, 10:30:08 PM »
Visit every day and rarely comment. I find it bothersome when we begin to question the methods and accuracy of measurement when the melt  season does not go as expected.

...I'll take that as a "no" from you then :)

FYI I don't have, and haven't had, any expectations for this season or any other. I don't post often but when I do, it's usually to caution that the only thing we should ever expect in this game is the unexpected.

I don't see it as unscientific to question whether a particular interpretation of a particular measurement is valid in the context of a particular set of heretofore unusual circumstances. Quite the contrary - what I'm trying to do is find and test a plausible explanation for an observation that I don't understand. What else would you have me do?

I can think of any number of things that might cause trouble for an algorithm which interprets at most five or six numbers as 40,000 square feet of "ice" or "water", or as something in-between, when confronted with a set of surface conditions different from any that were prevalent, or even likely, when the method was originally validated.

...For example the action of waves changing the incident angle of the low sun against flat, but thin and broken-up ice, across a large area, might change its average reflectivity and cause the proportion of ice vs. water in each pixel to be miscalculated.

...Or very low concentration ice which is being moved around very quickly at the periphery might be counted more than once, or might count as a pixel of area when it is actually 25% open water.

Does a 100x100 array containing a 50/50 mix of ice and open water count the same if all of the ice is in a single 5000 pixel floe vs if it is in 20,000 five-thousand sq. foot chunks? Is the answer to that question still the same if there is a constant 20-knot wind causing 30 mm surface wavelets across the open water spaces in the one case, vs. a four-foot swell in the other? - I don't know. Do you?

I'm not saying that the numbers are wrong. What I am saying that it's worth investigating the possibility that they might present a misleading picture given the right combination of circumstances.



Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3208 on: August 18, 2014, 10:30:40 PM »
BOOOM!!  :o The EURO 12z puts an Extreme Makeover for the Arctic weather pattern by completely change the game in about a week or so! The quasi-stationary low pressure that have been hovering over the mountains of Ural is breaking down and being replaced by a high pressure dome pushing southerlies the whole way from Europe to the Pole. This should yield some good compacting of the ice..

In 72hours there is an interesting small cyclone with a SLP about 984 hPa that might evolve in Laptev sea which should do some damage to the ice in the periphery there..

Overall, the forecasts in a couple of days call for a weather pattern dominated by low pressures.. Whether these lows have the ability to evolve and do some damage to the most thinnest ice remains to see..

Either the extent will drop quickly or we'll see a repeat of 2013 and 2009 in SIE declines...  :o

//LMV

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3209 on: August 18, 2014, 10:51:27 PM »
What about smoke from forest fires: 1) Could it be interpreted as ice by the satellites? 2) Could it protect the ice from the sun in what would then be a negative global warming feedback?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3210 on: August 19, 2014, 12:21:47 AM »
I find it bothersome when we begin to question the methods and accuracy of measurement when the melt  season does not go as expected.

I don't see it as unscientific to question whether a particular interpretation of a particular measurement is valid in the context of a particular set of heretofore unusual circumstances. Quite the contrary - what I'm trying to do is find and test a plausible explanation for an observation that I don't understand. What else would you have me do?

Questioning methods is what science is all about. The question is not how accurate particular measurements are, but what they mean. People seem to conclude that higher SIE/SIA means more ice and lower means less. But is it really that simple? Of course not, not even close. Indeed, maybe there's something very interesting buried in observed incongruities that ought to be explored. Or maybe not.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3211 on: August 19, 2014, 12:27:05 AM »
I'm currently experiencing greatly decreased solar panel output due to smoky skies.  The soot particles may settle on the ice and speed future melting, they might be warming the air as they remain in the atmosphere, but on the ground they are attenuating the amount of solar energy striking the surface.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3212 on: August 19, 2014, 12:33:44 AM »
... The soot particles may settle on the ice and speed future melting, ...
I'm in accord with you here, Bob.  I'm very much wondering what will happen with that soot when it begins being exposed to sunlight next spring.  Even covered with snow, its one more melt-favoring climate feedback.

I'm also wondering how it, combined with increased warm, open water will increase snowfall.  That would be a negative feedback for ice thickening and formation.

So many factors to consider, all so complexly linked...
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3213 on: August 19, 2014, 12:44:45 AM »
Looking at modis everyday there has been plumes of smoke coming in over the Canadian Basin and laptev/ESS region for the last week consistently.


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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3214 on: August 19, 2014, 01:56:48 AM »
I did say 'during the summer'....

You also said:

Quote
IceBridge is available for winter.

But it only covers the Canadian side of the Arctic.

SMOS covered "thin ice" Arctic wide into mid April
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3215 on: August 19, 2014, 02:08:02 PM »
Doing my very best impersonation of Friv in full flow, here is the ECMWF Arctic surf forecast for T+240:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/08/the-arctic-surf-forecast-for-late-august-2014/

I've chosen my very own big wave surfing team. Who do you suppose the Fiddlers with Photoshop on Fleet Street will come up with for the "Great Green Con" team?
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3216 on: August 19, 2014, 05:34:36 PM »
As the melting season is coming to an end and the compaction of the ice pack is increasing, it is becoming more apparent what will be the main differences between this and previous years minimums (as usual 2007, 2012 and 2013 are the years of display). The last image attached this week is a comparison with 2008 which seemed to be an appropriate year to compare with taken in regard that SIE is still trying to cling on to 2008. Though, I think the apparent difference in concentration in the Canadian Basin demonstrates why SIA was far lower back then and why 2014 probably never will end up with an equally low SIE minimum.

Again, I will also remind all of those who didn't pay close attention to the 2012 melting season that the ice surrounding Wrangel Island is not false ice, but real ice that got detached from the main pack and didn't firmly melt until September that year.

chrisale

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3217 on: August 19, 2014, 05:47:04 PM »
Personally I believe that the mechanisms we use to determine the presence or absence of ice have an element of assumption that ice will conform to a known pattern.

Just interjecting as a complete lurker.... but this statement can, and should, be applied to pretty much all weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere.  With the Jetstream acting the way it is, SSTs, new ice conditions, etc etc.  Old assumptions meteorologists and climatologists and all in between have used in the past are right out the window.

Anyway... my5cs. (no pennies in Canada anymore)
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3218 on: August 20, 2014, 04:12:37 AM »
The DMI is making up for lost time.

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viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3219 on: August 20, 2014, 04:19:27 AM »
[PS: The above DMI ice extent graph is at dmi.dk.]

Folks, after one full week of straight 7th’s, it looks like we’ll have to settle for a September minimum volume of 6839–7972 km³. Ie somewhere between 2008 and 2009. However, those were the Noughties. These are the Twenty Tens. And there is a whole new regime or level of melt percentage now, than there was back then. 2008 and 2009 clock in at 71.9% and 72.7% melt since April maximum, and so far the Twenty Ten mean is 80.8%. With last year, 2013, as some sort of «black sheep», true, but still. We’re already at 8th by August 18th, even if not a single crystal of ice would melt for the rest of Summer and Autumn, and I believe we can beat at least 2007 and 2009. Thus placing all the 5 Twenty Ten years among the Top 5. Yet, for that to happen, we need to push it past 72.1 % melt. We’re currently at 65.5.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 04:39:11 AM by viddaloo »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3220 on: August 20, 2014, 07:22:56 AM »
You have to the 18th piomas data? 

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3221 on: August 20, 2014, 07:27:38 AM »
Piomas won't be dropping much from here.  How does piomas account for bottom melt?  The ice from the Laptev region along 85n thru the Nansen basin has been smoked.  The inner core is quite well preserved. Tho.

None of this should be all that surprising with how much higher cryosat was last year then piomas.
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epiphyte

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3222 on: August 20, 2014, 07:59:13 AM »
PIOMAS is a model, not an observational record. That's why I don't vote anymore on what it is going to say. I don't have confidence that it is as valid as it used to be. As usual, I'm hedging by saying that I don't know it to be invalid... I'm just saying that given that the underlying mechanisms which it models are in flux, it might be missing something important.
Er...
That's it.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3223 on: August 20, 2014, 08:14:15 AM »
To be fair.  Cryosat showed a much larger increase then piomas did at the end of 2013. 

It may seem hard to believe such a bounce back after 2012 could happen.  But I'm sure 2007/2012 seemed hard to believe to longer term climate scientists who followed the ice since the 80s and 90s.
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3224 on: August 20, 2014, 09:05:48 AM »
Also at dmi.dk, prepare for colder air temps.

Mean temperature north of 80N:




2 m temperatures:

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viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3225 on: August 20, 2014, 09:25:15 AM »
You have to the 18th piomas data?
I wish! These 18 days are best guesses based on earlier correlation with extent data (NSIDC). PIOMAS hasn't replied yet to my email request, except for the out of office auto–reply.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3226 on: August 20, 2014, 09:33:18 AM »
A quick update on my Arctic basin surf forecast:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/08/the-arctic-surf-forecast-for-late-august-2014/#comment-56611

Here's how ECMWF currently looks at T+48h and T+216h:
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3227 on: August 20, 2014, 09:43:10 AM »
....... The ice from the Laptev region along 85n thru the Nansen basin has been smoked.  The inner core is quite well preserved. Tho.

None of this should be all that surprising with how much higher cryosat was last year then piomas.

I know this is showing only one tiny spot measurement but what signs are there that it is different from a larger area? IMB2013F has shown little melt at 77N http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2013F.htm

cesium62

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3228 on: August 20, 2014, 10:15:44 AM »
A quick update on my Arctic basin surf forecast:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/08/the-arctic-surf-forecast-for-late-august-2014/#comment-56611

Here's how ECMWF currently looks at T+48h and T+216h:
What are we looking at here?  How does this tell us what the surf conditions will be like?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3229 on: August 20, 2014, 10:37:18 AM »
....... The ice from the Laptev region along 85n thru the Nansen basin has been smoked.  The inner core is quite well preserved. Tho.

None of this should be all that surprising with how much higher cryosat was last year then piomas.

I know this is showing only one tiny spot measurement but what signs are there that it is different from a larger area? IMB2013F has shown little melt at 77N

Not sure what you mean.  I didn't say anything about the Canadian Basin.  The area where that buoy is located is right on the edge between ice that was torn up and ice that was well preserved.  It's not surprising some of that 3-5yr+ ice out there where that buoy is has done rather well. 

The nansen basin from the far reaches of the laptev but really the arctic basin.  Then along the Atlantic edge over a decent sized corridor has been thumped. 

It's very easy to see on the graphics below.



« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 10:46:21 AM by Frivolousz21 »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3230 on: August 20, 2014, 02:19:35 PM »
What are we looking at here?  How does this tell us what the surf conditions will be like?

Did you click the link Cesium? If so do you recall the "good old days" of "manual" surf forecasting based on SLP charts and not a whole lot else?

This isn't a whole lot of help in the Arctic basin for example, but does currently suggest something brewing in the Chukchi at T+180h:

http://MagicSeaweed.com/World-Surf-Chart/64/
« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 02:24:47 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3231 on: August 20, 2014, 05:45:43 PM »
Fast ice is now cracking over big way (Aqua-MODIS Aug 2):
About 10,000 km2 of remaining sea ice is also breaking up off of Zachariae Isstrøm / Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden / North East Greenland (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,400.0.html).

Today, att.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3232 on: August 20, 2014, 10:21:48 PM »
apologies for misunderstanding, Frivolousz, different understanding of "inner core", but semantics isn't as interesting as learning about the graphics you show:
...

It's very easy to see on the graphics below.
...
Please could you say more about how you interpret these graphics, is it surface temperature which can be derived from the false colour shades?

cesium62

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3233 on: August 21, 2014, 08:24:17 AM »
What are we looking at here?  How does this tell us what the surf conditions will be like?

Did you click the link Cesium? If so do you recall the "good old days" of "manual" surf forecasting based on SLP charts and not a whole lot else?

This isn't a whole lot of help in the Arctic basin for example, but does currently suggest something brewing in the Chukchi at T+180h:

http://MagicSeaweed.com/World-Surf-Chart/64/

I did click on the link.  Didn't seem to help.  What are the colors?  Are the wavy lines with numbers on them air pressure at some height and the colors air pressure at sea level?  Why do the numbers of the colors differ so much from the numbers on the wavy lines?

Yes, I find the wind charts ever so much easier to read.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3234 on: August 21, 2014, 05:54:26 PM »
What are the colors?  Are the wavy lines with numbers on them air pressure at some height and the colors air pressure at sea level?  Why do the numbers of the colors differ so much from the numbers on the wavy lines?

The "wavy lines" are sea level pressure. The colours represent 500mb geopotential height. Here's a brief explanation

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,94.msg1698.html#msg1698

Quote
Yes, I find the wind charts ever so much easier to read.

How about combined swell/wind charts?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/08/the-arctic-surf-forecast-for-late-august-2014/#comment-57680

As you can hopefully make out, the surf forecast for the North Slope of Alsaka is still looking good for the second half of next week. As a consequence Matt Ridley has recently been invited to try the extreme sport of big wave surfing in a polar bear suit!

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/statuses/502425233773821952

Unfortunately the same swell is not likely to prove as favourable for the Beaufort Sea Marginal Ice Zone.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3235 on: August 21, 2014, 08:42:51 PM »
You have to the 18th piomas data?
I wish! These 18 days are best guesses based on earlier correlation with extent data (NSIDC). PIOMAS hasn't replied yet to my email request, except for the out of office auto–reply.

You won't get PIOMAS data mid month. It is issued monthly only by popular demand (the daily and monthly data), IIRC in 2012 they did a mid month release in August when it was apparent what a monster melt we had on our hands, and with the effect of the cyclone.

The gridded data was only released annually, but Drs Zhang & Schweiger noticed what Wipneus and I were doing so have made efforts to release throughout the season, this was occasional, now it is monthly. But we can't rely on that as they are not funded and if Dr Zhang is busy he might not get round to it.

As for volume this month. In 2010 a large export of MYI happened into Beaufort/Chukchi and the ESS, much of this melted out in what was a warm summer. Likewise there's been a big export this year, but the weather isn't as good for melt, by mid August 2010 there was a mass of low concentration ice in the ESS, this year it remains rather more compact. However note that PIOMAS didn't really show this thicker ice like HYCOM.

I think we're going to see a lot of carry over of volume this year, with a large slug of multi-year ice surviving through to next year in the ESS. EDIT - I have already shown that much of the increase in volume is from ice between 3 and 3.9m thick in the Central Arctic - that will carry over.
Quote
Taking the overall volume difference between July 2012 and July 2014, in the Central Arctic the overall volume difference between those two months is 2.072k km^3, for the Arctic Ocean the overall volume difference is 2.633k km^3. Therefore the Central Arctic accounts for 79% of the volume increase since July 2012 for the whole Arctic. Of the 2.072k km^3 increase between July 2012 and July 2014 in the Central Arctic, 88% is from ice between 3 and 3.9m thick. Taking the Central Arctic's balance of 79% of the total gain in volume between July 2012 and 2014, Central Arctic ice between 3 and 3.9m thick accounts for 70% of the total volume increase between those two years. The volume increase is not only confined to a specific region, but within that region it is confined to a specific thickness band.
 
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/piomas-july-2014.html

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3236 on: August 21, 2014, 08:47:56 PM »
I did say 'during the summer'....

You also said:

Quote
IceBridge is available for winter.

But it only covers the Canadian side of the Arctic.

SMOS covered "thin ice" Arctic wide into mid April

Fair enough.

cesium62

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3237 on: August 22, 2014, 12:16:21 AM »
The "wavy lines" are sea level pressure. The colours represent 500mb geopotential height. Here's a brief explanation

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,94.msg1698.html#msg1698

Quote
As you can hopefully make out, the surf forecast for the North Slope of Alsaka is still looking good for the second half of next week. As a consequence Matt Ridley has recently been invited to try the extreme sport of big wave surfing in a polar bear suit!

Does this mean Mavericks is moving north?  ;-)

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3238 on: August 22, 2014, 04:27:54 AM »
The ESS region continues to rapidly deteriorate.

 

The winds stay pretty bad in terms of turbulence.  But the surface should cool of a lot by next week with that cyclone.

 

The heat in the water will leave quickly.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3239 on: August 22, 2014, 12:41:49 PM »
Open water have now crossed into 85N territory. The "hole" that emerged in August last year was around 87-88N, but 85-86 degrees is about as far north as a continuous arm of open water got in 2013, which is as far as I can see the current record.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3240 on: August 22, 2014, 12:43:00 PM »
SSTS have hung on quite well so far.



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3241 on: August 22, 2014, 02:01:11 PM »
We finally have a good view of the Nansen basin area of the Atlantic side.  Not sure if any of this will melt out or be compacted.  But a large area of ice has been torn up something fierce under the clouds.




 
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3242 on: August 22, 2014, 09:28:55 PM »
We finally have a good view of the Nansen basin area of the Atlantic side.  Not sure if any of this will melt out or be compacted.  But a large area of ice has been torn up something fierce under the clouds.
Some big changes in 1 day in the eastern part of that region, adjacent to Severnaya Zemlya. One week ago, yesterday, and today att.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3243 on: August 22, 2014, 10:09:31 PM »
EURO 12z run seems extremely interesting with a reverting dipole next week!  :o This would yield more southerlies over the area where the sea ice is as most vulnerable together with a more cyclones over the ESS, Beaufort and Chukchi. If the forecast turns out to be true, which also have some support from GFS 12z run, we'll see ice transport to Berings Strait, warmer water to Franz Josefs land and eventually a powerful cyclone to slash through the ice in the peripheral parts of the ESS.. Southerlies to Franz Josefs land should have some effect on the ice shield here I suppose...

This is, I think, the last thing that will have any significant effect on the 2014 melting season before we'll start to see only marginally changes in SIE...


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3244 on: August 23, 2014, 04:47:50 PM »
Boy, what a melting season! Now there's even a volcanic eruption at Barðarbunga:

Quote
It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.
[]

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3245 on: August 23, 2014, 07:07:52 PM »
NASA Scientists Watching, Studying Arctic Changes This Summer

At the top of the article there's a video showing a visualization of the 2014 melting season (up to August 3), based on satellite data from AMSR2.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3246 on: August 23, 2014, 08:56:18 PM »
Taking

June losses = 1 June - 30 June.

For both Wipneus's extent and area. Then calculating the ratio as:

June Loss Ratio = AreaLoss / ExtentLoss.

Following a general downward trend, June 2014 saw the June loss ratio drop to below 1, for the first time in the entire dataset (since 1979).



How to interpret this? Basically my WAG is - In the past June area losses have typically been much larger than June extent losses (1.5 times as large). Over the past decade or so area losses have fallen as the ice edge has retreated much faster in June. This year, for the first time area losses were less than extent losses. Why the downward trend towards area losses being equal to extent? I suspect that thinner ice in June is leading to a much more aggressive ice edge retreat as compared to overall drops in area away from the ice edge.

I'm biassed by the other data I've been looking at, but don't want to comment on right now. But I'm viewing it as a reason to seriously doubt that increased melt pond formation has anything to do with the June Area cliff (which happens in Wipeus's area calculations as well as CT Area).

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3247 on: August 23, 2014, 11:29:09 PM »
Wow.  I've had the impression that concentration - at least as shown by CT maps and judged by eye has been rising at the end of the freeze season.  The start of this year seemed to have the largest area of flawless 100% concentration ice I've seen.  I've suspected this may be due to thinner new ice being nice and smooth, so showing up better on the sensors than older ice which may be cracked, and have jumbled up ridges which may be more likely to fool the sensors into thinking the concentration is say 90% when it is really 100.

If this was happening, and giving the belief of the June cliff I'd expect area to be dropping faster relative to extent, not slower.

Is it possible that the sensors or algorithms are changing and becoming better at ignoring melt ponds?  Or perhaps a sensor degradation issue and the sensors are becoming less able to detect melt ponds or open water between the ice floes?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3248 on: August 23, 2014, 11:30:02 PM »
.....I'm viewing it as a reason to seriously doubt that increased melt pond formation has anything to do with the June Area cliff (which happens in Wipeus's area calculations as well as CT Area).

The melt pond model in the Schroeder et al. 2014 paper suggests a strong upward trend in melt pond fraction in June, e.g. in this graph.  I guess higher temperatures and flatter ice surface may also increase the "visibility" of melt ponds in the CT area calculations.

Looking at the CT sea ice concentration maps for "June 15" and "June 30" in 2012:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=15&fy=2012&sm=06&sd=30&sy=2012

the red colors at the Pacific side of the Arctic, and the yellow/orange colors in the Canadian Archipelago, in these maps, suggest substantial melt ponding at those locations.

Unfortunately the archived CT images for 2011 and preceding years are not very instructive, since the concentrations shown in those images tend to be higher than the concentrations that were used in the actual CT-area calculations, especially in 2010.  Friv pointed this out a few months ago.

The fact that June sea ice extent losses have a stronger upward trend than the June area losses is interesting.  But extent in June is affected by regions like Hudson, Baffin etc., so I don't think this disproves that increased melt ponding plays an important role in the June Cliff of CT area. 

« Last Edit: August 23, 2014, 11:38:26 PM by Steven »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3249 on: August 24, 2014, 01:36:18 AM »
The fact that June sea ice extent losses have a stronger upward trend than the June area losses is interesting.  But extent in June is affected by regions like Hudson, Baffin etc., so I don't think this disproves that increased melt ponding plays an important role in the June Cliff of CT area.

I also thought it sounded plausible that regions like Hudson and Baffin are the reason why this most interesting data shows such a distinct trend. That could as well explain the seemingly low correlation with the September minimum. The problem is just that June area loss in these regions also seems to be on the rise. Either way, I don't think this can explained properly without taking a closer on the numbers of each individual region.