Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Off-topic => The rest => Topic started by: Paddy on September 27, 2016, 08:11:49 AM

Title: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
Post by: Paddy on September 27, 2016, 08:11:49 AM
Forum members from the US: who are you going to vote for?

EDIT: The poll allows you to change your mind; I intend to close it on election day.

EDIT 2: Thread renamed due to thread drift and electoral outcomes.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Neven on September 27, 2016, 09:26:41 AM
Thank God I don't have to vote on this one.  ;)

But who are Johnson and Stein?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on September 27, 2016, 09:46:44 AM
Johnson's the libertarian candidate, Stein the green candidate. Neither is expected to win any states.

EDIT: Johnson's polling about 6 to 8%, Stein 2 to 4%.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on September 27, 2016, 12:11:04 PM
Clinton won the first debate....although maybe it was more of Trump doing poorly...as opposed to Clinton doing really well.  I would give Clinton a B....and Trump a C- or D+.

I expect the gloves to come off in the next debate.  Maybe they should do it in a boxing ring with barbed wire around the ring:  A death match.

In the peso futures market, the peso went UP as Clinton continued to win, especially the last half of the debate.  So along with Clinton winning....so did Mexico.

I guess the big loser from the debate....other than Trump, was Russia.  Vladimir better get his kid to practice for round 2.

As ugly as the first debate was....the 2nd will be worse.  And then the 3rd debate will be on Trump's "home court" with FOX's Chris Wallace as moderator.  I think they should add a 4th debate with Rachel Maddow as moderator just to "even things out."


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on September 27, 2016, 01:46:55 PM
The way I see it, the debate went to Trump's advantage simply because he wasn't knocked-out. His voters don't really care about who was right, who was more presidential, etc.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on September 27, 2016, 02:13:52 PM
The way I see it, the debate went to Trump's advantage simply because he wasn't knocked-out. His voters don't really care about who was right, who was more presidential, etc/quote]

I don't think that debates "move the needle" for EITHER candidates "base voters."  Anyone who was in the Trump camp before....still is there (I think he could....quite literally shoot someone...and it wouldn't matter).  Same is pretty much true for Clinton.

Debates are about the UNDECIDED VOTERS.  I guess we will find that out in a few days with new polls, etc.   Trump would have been better off to have a good LAST HALF of the debate...instead of starting of better...and then finishing poorly.  I think he lost the battle for the "undecided vote" last night.  The good thing for him....is that there are 2 more battles (debates) to fight.

I think that Clinton needs to attack Trump MORE on his tax policies.....which are HEAVILY WEIGHTED to helping the rich.  That attack will resonate with middle class voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Also....both Ohio and Pennsylvania added a LOT of jobs over the last year....something she has to pound the table on.

Giving the wealthy even MORE tax breaks.....and adding trillions of debt to the US budget to pay for it......is a plan that I would attack RELENTLESSLEY if I were Clinton in the next debates (if it is covered).

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 27, 2016, 03:08:39 PM
The way I see it, the debate went to Trump's advantage simply because he wasn't knocked-out. His voters don't really care about who was right, who was more presidential, etc.

Trump's dualistic approach casts the actions of anyone he doesn't like in the most negative terms possible, while using superlatives to describe all that he has done and the great things that will happen during a Trump presidency. Its his version of reality.

His followers are living in a distorted version of reality which will only be shaken by a Trump meltdown. I hope it happens but I doubt it will. Clinton can win all three debates and still possibly lose the election.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on September 27, 2016, 06:24:03 PM
"Clinton can win all three debates and still possibly lose the election."

Yes, as did Kerry.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on September 27, 2016, 06:27:26 PM
My take is that Trump knew that anyone who would be a likely voter for him wouldn't have the attention span to watch more the the first few minutes. That's why he got his best (if you can call them that) licks in in the first ten to fifteen minutes, and then didn't really bother much about the rest of the debate.

(Of course, his short attention span matches that of his voters, so there's that.)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 27, 2016, 06:57:08 PM
Thank God I don't have to vote on this one.  ;)

I wish I could say the same, but I'll vote for Hillary.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 27, 2016, 07:29:09 PM
"Clinton can win all three debates and still possibly lose the election."

Yes, as did Kerry.

That's true, but I had something different in mind when I wrote that line. The American people are fed up with the political status quo for many reasons, some of which I don't completely understand. Therefore the status quo candidates, i.e. Jeb Bush, and Hillary Clinton would have sailed through the primaries in any other election year. Hillary overcame a strong insurgent candidate in Bernie Sanders. Moderate Republican candidates like John Kasich or Jeb Bush couldn't stop Trump, even with Bush's large campaign war chest.

So you have and insurgent candidate (Trump) versus an establishment candidate (Clinton), who has high unfavorables. Any other presidential election year, Trump would not have gone far even in the primaries, but the landscape is far different this year. What we're observing is possibly a "perfect" storm, and please forgive the hyperbole, but I cant help but draw some parallels with what happened in Germany in the early 1930's.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 27, 2016, 09:43:02 PM
... But who [is] Johnson ...?
Gary Johnson is the former 2-term Republican Governor (1995-2003) of New Mexico (where I grew up, and one of the places (with Texas and Chicago) where dead folks used to regularly vote, I was led to believe).  He made his money in construction before running for Governor and climbed Mt. Everest afterwards.  I think he is a genuine libertarian, wanting minimal government except for military.  He is not a Climate Change denier, but, I understand, he holds the view that government shouldn't do anything about it.  He ran for President in 2012 as the Libertarian Party candidate when he garnered 1.0% of the popular vote; he is likely to do much better this November (2-5%?).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: longwalks1 on September 28, 2016, 12:02:03 AM
In Iowa, after the caucus and county and then district and my plank of NO MX missile system with 90% present agreeing always got trimmed off going up to the next level, I chose not to go to state convention. I just changed my mind and voted for the man who campaigned on a 50 cents gas tax for mass transit and no MX missile system, that was for Anderson in 1980. 

The great thing about owing and helping to run homeless shelters was the ability to commit semi-frequent non-violent civil disobedience against nuclear weapons.   After enough of both of that, well Canada has no nuclear weapons, and pays better for care-givers to the mentally challenged.  I had better get set up to get that ballot in the mail. 

Rest in peace Paul Wellstone and family.  Paul and Jack Layton are two examples of the best of politicians.  Cancerous dog vomit describes Killary and Trump. 

BTW - no one ever gets to vote for a candidate, only an elector. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Fairbanksnchill on September 28, 2016, 12:17:59 AM
I am compelled to vote for Hillary due to her claim to actually try to do something about the climate.

Her promotional campaign add here ->https://youtu.be/_ZwguLJVxsM (https://youtu.be/_ZwguLJVxsM)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 28, 2016, 12:27:56 AM
Forum members from the US: who are you going to vote for?

Paddy, why does the voting close on 11/26?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on September 28, 2016, 02:45:47 AM
Because I was lazy when doing the poll. I'll cut it down.

EDIT: Drat, I can't cut it down. Will have to try and remember to hit the lock voting button on November 8th/9th.

Incidentally, I'm not at all surprised by the Trump: Clinton split, but I am slightly surprised by the leak of Stein support. I'm guessing it's because Trump is just that bad / that much of a climate change denier.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on September 28, 2016, 02:51:07 AM
budmantis wrote: "So you have and insurgent candidate (Trump) versus an establishment candidate (Clinton), who has high unfavorables..."

I agree with this analysis, too.

In this election, with a strong whiff in the air of 'throw the bumbs out," someone with such a strong 'insider' status as Hillary was sure to be facings some strong headwinds.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 28, 2016, 05:39:25 AM
I don't know how much a debate matters to Trump supporters. If they can support him after all the drivel that has already come out of his mouth I don't think three more days matters much. Conservatives want a conservative even if they know their candidate is flawed.
 I am voting Clinton and I have a big eight foot sign at the end of the farm supporting a local liberal democrat candidate just to piss off the local rednecks. We are traveling down the road to two very different realities and the chasm between the two extremes may at some point swallow us whole.
 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on September 28, 2016, 06:25:31 AM
Thank God I don't have to vote on this one.  ;)
Hmm, if there was a God, would this soap opera be for real?  ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 28, 2016, 08:18:45 AM
I don't know how much a debate matters to Trump supporters. If they can support him after all the drivel that has already come out of his mouth I don't think three more days matters much. Conservatives want a conservative even if they know their candidate is flawed.
 I am voting Clinton and I have a big eight foot sign at the end of the farm supporting a local liberal democrat candidate just to piss off the local rednecks. We are traveling down the road to two very different realities and the chasm between the two extremes may at some point swallow us whole.

I feel very much the same way. I have friends here in Florida who cant stand Hillary, cant stand Obama and will vote for Trump no matter what. I have older siblings in New Hampshire who feel the same way. Even if Hillary wins, this isn't over. Just like the conservatives who have sought to delegitimize Obama over the past eight years, they'll likely continue to delegitimize Clinton if she is elected. My question is, where does this stop?

One other thing I'd like to mention is that the people I know who will vote for Trump are good people. For whatever reason, (one I'm sure has to do with listening to Fox News), they think voting for Trump is the right thing to do, no matter how misguided it sounds.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on September 28, 2016, 12:45:48 PM
Only on FOX.....could you have 3 fake journalists sitting and listening to Donald Trump bash a former Miss Universe for the SECOND TIME.....and they just sit there and listen.  Anyone who thought Steve Douchey or his two side kicks had ANY MORALS AT ALL......should now be assured, they have NONE:

http://digg.com/video/trump-miss-universe-alicia-machado (http://digg.com/video/trump-miss-universe-alicia-machado)

Only in Donald's little world....is it OK to call someone "Miss Piggy"....."Miss Housekeeping"....."Fat".  That is Donald's little world.  And that is also the world of fake news:

If anyone ever wondered why I continually bash on FOX News.....now you know.  FOX is nothing more than a mouthpiece for Donald Trump.  It is DANGEROUS.....even more dangerous than Donald Trump.

What I am surprised at....is there aren't millions of people like me (and others) who bash FOX News for their continued lies.......continued lack of morals......continued lack of decency.

"The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything."  Albert Einstein....



 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ritter on September 28, 2016, 06:53:00 PM
I will plug my nose and vote for Clinton. I'd voted for Sanders in the primary, for all the good it did.

The fact that Trump is where he is does not bode well for the future civility of this country.  :(
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 28, 2016, 07:15:17 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37497555 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37497555)

Trump rally last night in Melbourne, Florida covered by the BBC. His adherents called on Trump to hit Clinton harder. Perhaps some time in the near future they'll start calling him Der Fuehrer?

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on September 28, 2016, 07:25:17 PM
I will plug my nose and vote for Clinton. I'd voted for Sanders in the primary, for all the good it did.

Talk with your friends, family, co-workers as well.  I'll supply the nose plugs ;)  I have one myself.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 28, 2016, 08:20:29 PM
The linked Daily Beast article provides a partial list of the numerous bombshells that Clinton could drop on Trump in the second debate, if Trump decides to get dirty:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/09/28/hillary-clinton-saved-the-bombshells-for-round-2.html (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/09/28/hillary-clinton-saved-the-bombshells-for-round-2.html)

The list includes: Trump University, Trump Foundation, etc.

See also:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/donald-trump-scandals/474726/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/donald-trump-scandals/474726/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 28, 2016, 08:41:18 PM
I see someone voted for Trump. I'd really be curious to hear this person's rationale, but understand if you wish to remain anonymous.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ritter on September 28, 2016, 11:00:25 PM
I will plug my nose and vote for Clinton. I'd voted for Sanders in the primary, for all the good it did.

Talk with your friends, family, co-workers as well.  I'll supply the nose plugs ;)  I have one myself.

Most folk I know are already on-board with choosing the lesser of the two turds--easier to choke down. That said, I don't know anyone enthusiastic about Clinton. Or Trump.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 29, 2016, 12:27:19 AM
Clinton received an endorsement from Republican Senator John Warner of Virginia. Warner served five terms and retired in 2009.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37499678 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37499678)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 29, 2016, 12:56:06 AM
Arizona Republic Endorses Clinton (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Sep28.html#item-6)
The Arizona Republic [newspaper] was founded in 1890, and has served a state (and before that, a territory) that has been a consistently Republican stronghold. Consequently, for over 120 years it has never endorsed a Democrat for president. Well, at least, not until Tuesday, when it came out in favor of Hillary Clinton. It observed that:
Clinton retains her composure under pressure. She's tough. She doesn't back down. Trump responds to criticism with the petulance of verbal spit wads. That's beneath our national dignity. When the president of the United States speaks, the world expects substance. Not a blistering tweet.

That's hitting The Donald where it's sure to sting.
...


On a separate matter, it interests me how many Democratic-leaning Americans have bought into the oft-repeated (over 20 years or so) Republican talking point of Hillary Clinton not being trustworthy (etc.). 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 29, 2016, 01:21:39 AM
Here's a cartoon of Trump taking the bait in Monday night's debate. Also one showing Trump losing his cool.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on September 29, 2016, 06:29:43 AM
I see someone voted for Trump. I'd really be curious to hear this person's rationale, but understand if you wish to remain anonymous.
Maybe Charlie Christensen's version of Walt's badly tempered duck can provide a possible rationale?  ;)
"I don't have a problem with alcohol, I've got problems with reality!"
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 29, 2016, 07:19:56 AM
I wonder what member and frequent contributor "Buddy", who has the "go ducks" avatar would say about the above cartoons using Donald Duck? Sleepy, your version of the duck looks to be enjoying a pint of Guinness.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on September 29, 2016, 08:43:23 AM
Yes, probably very much but it doesn't have to be Guinness. Arne Anka has been around for over 30 years, the first version (the author has tried to kill him three times) was only interested in alcohol and women and the only thing available to him was alcohol. Most Americans that are familiar with him are probably employed by Disney, as they threatened to sue him during the 90's.
The third and latest version of Arne Anka is more political and the reason for that resurrection was 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, according to the author.

Arne Anka might be hospitalized by now due to liver damage, or just stunned to silence by the other quack running for president.

"Sometimes I wonder if I live in a country, or in a joke."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on September 29, 2016, 12:48:01 PM
I wonder what member and frequent contributor "Buddy", who has the "go ducks" avatar would say about the above cartoons using Donald Duck? Sleepy, your version of the duck looks to be enjoying a pint of Guinness.


That actually is NOT a cartoon at all.  It is an actual picture of me studying for my last final exam during my senior year at a bar called "The Faucet" ;)

The "history" of Donald Duck between Oregon and Walt Disney is interesting.  Walt Disney....in 1947.....made a "handshake deal" with the U or Oregon to allow Oregon to use the likeness of Donald Duck for their mascot. No written agreement was made until decades later in the 1970's.

http://blog.uoduckstore.com/2014/11/longer-puddles-donald-duck-long-history/ (http://blog.uoduckstore.com/2014/11/longer-puddles-donald-duck-long-history/)

Now....the actual mascot of Oregon (now formally known as "The Duck"...not Donald Duck) is not subject to any agreement with Walt Disney.  BUT....the likeness of Donald Duck on Oregon memorabilia (shirts, pants, stuff, etc) IS subject to a license agreement...and Oregon pays Walt Disney company 50% of the licensing fees Oregon receives (Oregon receives 12% of the sales price...so Disney gets half of that 12%) for any stuff that is sold with the Duck likeness on it.

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 30, 2016, 06:21:43 AM
I wonder what member and frequent contributor "Buddy", who has the "go ducks" avatar would say about the above cartoons using Donald Duck? Sleepy, your version of the duck looks to be enjoying a pint of Guinness.

That actually is NOT a cartoon at all.  It is an actual picture of me studying for my last final exam during my senior year at a bar called "The Faucet" ;)


It must have been a tough one Buddy, you looked pretty frazzled. Especially with all those cigarette butts!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 30, 2016, 06:27:18 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/29/politics/gary-johnson-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/29/politics/gary-johnson-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html)

The above link is an article asking why Gary Johnson is still running for president. This guy is beginning to make George W. Bush look good with his gaffe about Aleppo and now not being able to name a foreign leader he likes.

Don't understand why William Weld isn't the Libertarian presidential candidate. He once was governor of Massachusetts and a Republican at the time. From what I can recall, he did a good job.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 30, 2016, 06:34:39 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/29/politics/donald-trump-angela-merkel-praise-criticism/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial (http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/29/politics/donald-trump-angela-merkel-praise-criticism/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial)

Getting back to Trump, in the above linked article he says he admires Angela Merkel, but criticizes her for her position on the refugee situation.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 30, 2016, 07:50:06 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/29/opinions/clinton-trump-not-binary-choice-rye/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/29/opinions/clinton-trump-not-binary-choice-rye/index.html)

Here's a CNN article by Angela Rye that I think is helpful in understanding Hillary Clinton. One thing I have to remind myself sometimes is that Hillary may have more substance than what the press has given her credit for. Maybe, just maybe there is more to Hillary than we think.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 30, 2016, 03:09:47 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/30/media/trump-clinton-wall-street-journal/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/30/media/trump-clinton-wall-street-journal/index.html)

"Wall Street Journal columnist urges voters to pick Clinton over unstable Trump". Pulitzer prize winning columnist uses the headline "Hillary-hatred derangement syndrome" (HHDR).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2016, 09:29:59 PM
The "USA Today" Editorial Board has never taken sides in the presidential race. We're doing it now.
In the 34-year history of USA TODAY, the Editorial Board has never taken sides in the presidential race. Instead, we’ve expressed opinions about the major issues and haven’t presumed to tell our readers, who have a variety of priorities and values, which choice is best for them. Because every presidential race is different, we revisit our no-endorsement policy every four years. We’ve never seen reason to alter our approach. Until now.

This year, the choice isn’t between two capable major party nominees who happen to have significant ideological differences. This year, one of the candidates — Republican nominee Donald Trump — is, by unanimous consensus of the Editorial Board, unfit for the presidency.

From the day he declared his candidacy 15 months ago through this week’s first presidential debate, Trump has demonstrated repeatedly that he lacks the temperament, knowledge, steadiness and honesty that America needs from its presidents.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/09/29/dont-vote-for-donald-trump-editorial-board-editorials-debates/91295020/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/09/29/dont-vote-for-donald-trump-editorial-board-editorials-debates/91295020/)

Rachel Maddow noted this week that NO major daily paper has endorsed Trump.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2016, 09:33:04 PM
U.S. Presidential elections are won using Electoral Votes from each state -- which can differ from the popular vote.  Here's a link to an electoral vote map that distorts the size of each state to reflect the number of electoral votes each has.  It's updated daily according to various polls, and is more statistically rigorous than most.

Note:  Clinton is well ahead of Trump in "95% Safe" states, 214 to 175 (270 needed to win). 
And most of the so-called "swing states" (where the vote could easily go either way) are currently leaning toward Clinton (light blue).

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/ (http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/)
The link also has numbers on Congressional races.  Right now, it's 50-50 whether the Democrats will win back the Senate.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on September 30, 2016, 09:43:42 PM
The "USA Today" Editorial Board has never taken sides in the presidential race. We're doing it now.
In the 34-year history of USA TODAY, the Editorial Board has never taken sides in the presidential race. Instead, we’ve expressed opinions about the major issues and haven’t presumed to tell our readers, who have a variety of priorities and values, which choice is best for them. Because every presidential race is different, we revisit our no-endorsement policy every four years. We’ve never seen reason to alter our approach. Until now.

This year, the choice isn’t between two capable major party nominees who happen to have significant ideological differences. This year, one of the candidates — Republican nominee Donald Trump — is, by unanimous consensus of the Editorial Board, unfit for the presidency.

From the day he declared his candidacy 15 months ago through this week’s first presidential debate, Trump has demonstrated repeatedly that he lacks the temperament, knowledge, steadiness and honesty that America needs from its presidents.

[url]http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/09/29/dont-vote-for-donald-trump-editorial-board-editorials-debates/91295020/[/url] ([url]http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/09/29/dont-vote-for-donald-trump-editorial-board-editorials-debates/91295020/[/url])

Rachel Maddow noted this week that NO major daily paper has endorsed Trump.


Trump followers would blame that on mainstream media bias. The USA Today editorial board's decision being unanimous, as well as no major daily paper endorsing Trump is noteworthy.

Checking the poll status, only 21 members have voted. Surely there must be a lot more US citizens in the Forum's membership?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 01, 2016, 07:41:19 AM
Washington Post article titled "Trump's bad week is a nightmare for the GOP".

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump%E2%80%99s-bad-week-is-a-%E2%80%98nightmare%E2%80%99-for-the-gop/ar-BBwQO2C?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump%E2%80%99s-bad-week-is-a-%E2%80%98nightmare%E2%80%99-for-the-gop/ar-BBwQO2C?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp)

Fortunately for those of us opposing him, he just cant seem to shut up. Trump would make a great president for WWE wrestling. Perhaps when this election is finally over, the average temperature  for the planet will go down a little!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2016, 01:37:54 PM

Checking the poll status, only 21 members have voted. Surely there must be a lot more US citizens in the Forum's membership?

Maybe the "low turnout" is because the poll doesn't have a nuclear option like this one:
 ;D
[from Public Policy Polling, back in June]
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 01, 2016, 02:04:40 PM
Donald Trump has about $363 million in loans from Deutsche Bank (through several mortgages on 3 of Trump's properties).  The US has been suing Deutsche Bank for its part in the mortgage crisis back in 2008/2009.....and is trying to get $14 BILLION dollars from Deutsche Bank (DB).  DB says it isn't going to pay the US anywhere CLOSE to that amount.

If Donald Trump were to win....he would have a HUGE (YUGE in Trumpian language) conflict of interest.  This is just the tip of the iceberg for conflicts of interest.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/trumps-conflict-interest-big-overseas-bank-getting-worse-minute (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/trumps-conflict-interest-big-overseas-bank-getting-worse-minute)

It is also interesting now....because Deutsche has come under so much speculation and financial pressure over the last 6 months....especially that last couple of weeks.  Since 2014....the stock has dropped from a high of $52 down to $11 earlier this week....before bouncing up to $13.

Banks need to have the public's confidence in their "reserves"....and their overall financial condition.  A bank CAN have a "run on the bank"....where individuals and companies pull their money out of the bank...and that escalates and causes the bank to be "under-reserved" (under capitalized).

Watch Deutsche Bank over the coming 6 weeks......and keep your eye on the banking sector in general in both Europe AND the world.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: crandles on October 01, 2016, 05:00:08 PM
On an environmental forum, the green candidate currently registering 0% looks slightly surprising, but maybe we should expect a strong 'vote Clinton to stop trump' effect.

.

If you are being criticised for insulting women, should you stop or make sure you do a thorough job of the insults? Hmmm, obviously a tough one to decide that, (at least for one candidate).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 01, 2016, 05:36:08 PM
Referencing Sigmetnow's post, reply#43:

Even in June, the giant meteor was outpolling Gary Johnson. What I find interesting is the 7% that were unsure, perhaps there should have been another option;

"Giant meteor crashing on Donald Trump"

That would have been my first choice!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 01, 2016, 05:38:58 PM
If you are being criticised for insulting women, should you stop or make sure you do a thorough job of the insults? Hmmm, obviously a tough one to decide that, (at least for one candidate).

Pretty incredible really.  I've seen much more maturity out of junior high schooler's.  Plus....I have NEVER seen someone with such a knack for outright lying.  It does NOT say much for the US.....that someone like Trump could get more than 10% of the vote....let alone 40%. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 01, 2016, 05:42:55 PM
I don't do such polls usually, but crandle's comment prompted me to represent for Stein.

I am in a relatively 'safe' state for Clinton, so there is really no chance that my vote would sway the main election either way. So really, it would be 'throwing my vote away' NOT to vote for a third party candidate, especially since, if Stein gets 5% of the state vote, the Green party gets official status, which confers various perks.

I find Johnson idiotic and unpalatable.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 02, 2016, 05:21:27 AM
http://www.aol.com/article/2016/10/01/ivanka-trumps-new-campaign-ad-targets-women-voters/21484551/ (http://www.aol.com/article/2016/10/01/ivanka-trumps-new-campaign-ad-targets-women-voters/21484551/)

I wonder if Ivanka Trump's new campaign add targeting women voters will help Donald Trump after this past week's meltdown? For me it's a resounding no.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 02, 2016, 02:34:14 PM
This will put a smile on your face:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bill-maher-donald-trump-endorsements_us_57ef4f3fe4b024a52d2f36fb?section=& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bill-maher-donald-trump-endorsements_us_57ef4f3fe4b024a52d2f36fb?section=&)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 02, 2016, 05:15:38 PM
Trump tax issue.  Here's some information for those of you interested.

As most of you now know.....a few pages of Trump's 1995 tax return was sent to the New York Times (likely by a Trump employee)....and they showed them in an article in their paper.  It showed that Trump had an operating loss of over $900 million in 1995.

A few things to note:

1)  So much for being a "great business man".  A $900 million dollar loss in 1995 (more than 20 years ago) was a LOT back then.  A great business man doesn't have a $900 million dollar loss.

2)  The US tax code allows that a "net operating loss" (referred to as an "NOL").....can be carried BACK for 2 PRIOR YEARS....AND carried FORWARD for 18 - 20 years....depending on if you used the carryback period)......to "offset operating income in those other years."

3)  Remember....we already know that Trump didn't pay federal income taxes in 1991 and 1993 because he had to show those returns to state regulators.  So.....his loss from 1995 could be carried BACK to 1993 & 1994 to "offset" any business income in those years.  But it DOESN'T answer the "no income tax in 1991". That is BEFORE the 2 year carryback period.

So not only was Trump a "bad businessman" in 1995.....he was horrible businessman before that as well (no surprise).

4)  It also goes to Trump's LACK OF BUSINESS ACUMEN in future years PAST 1995.  NOL's can only be used to "offset business income".  So.....if carried BACK the NOL 2 years...and carried FORWARD any "unused NOL" forward for 18 years......it means that Trump was NOT able to generate enough business INCOME in the 20 year period to MORE THAN OFFSET THE ORIGINAL NOL.

Example:  If Trump had a $900,000,000 NOL in 1995.  He can carry that BACK 2 years...an forward 18 years to offset any operating INCOME.

So his total operating INCOME for the other 19 years in that 20 span.....WAS LESS than the operating loss from 1995.  If he truly WERE a "great businessman".....he would have had (for instance) operating income of $5 billion dollars....and that $900 million dollars would have offset PART of the $5 billion.....but he would still have $4.1 billion of operating INCOME to pay tax on.  But of course HE DIDN'T....because he is a crappy businessman.

In other words:  He was a horrible businessman for AT LEAST THAT 20 YEAR PERIOD.

Does anyone REALLY want Trump to do to the country.....what he did to his business?  I vote NO...

For those of you with nothing to do.....here is the link to the "Net Operating Loss" section of the IRS explanation.  Works wonders if you are having trouble getting to sleep ;)  Maybe Trump should read it instead of tweeting at 3 am in the morning. ;)

https://www.irs.gov/publications/p536/ar02.html (https://www.irs.gov/publications/p536/ar02.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 02, 2016, 06:33:38 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/as-news-of-trump%E2%80%99s-taxes-breaks-he-goes-off-script-at-a-rally-in-pennsylvania/ar-BBwTB4z?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/as-news-of-trump%E2%80%99s-taxes-breaks-he-goes-off-script-at-a-rally-in-pennsylvania/ar-BBwTB4z?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

The above is a Washington Post article discussing the tax issue as well as further rants from Trump at a campaign stop in Manheim, PA last night. He had some scripted remarks, but ended going off the rails again. It's a good thing this is happening NOW before the election.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 02, 2016, 11:50:53 PM
Here's a paragraph from an article (link at bottom).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last Wednesday, as the Republican presidential nominee spiraled down into a week that would ultimately be dominated by his personal attacks on a former Miss Universe and his seething response to poor reviews of his debate performance, NBC News reported that among those growing increasingly concerned about the trajectory of his campaign were his three adult children — Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric. The kids, NBC’s Katy Tur reported, were starting to worry about the campaign’s adverse impact on the family business.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It was reported by another source a few months months ago that the business activity at the Trump organization businesses has slowed since the campaign started.  It has now slowed MORE apparently.

I expect their DC property to be "in trouble" in the not too distant future.  Too expensive.....and too many other really nice places to stay in DC.  There was an article that I posted a couple weeks ago....explaining that the Trump's were OVERBUDGET....and over their initial deadline (although Lying Donald said they were under budget and ahead of the timeline).   When did Trump ever let the truth get in his way.  As well.....the property is tangled up in litigation against at least 1 of the chef's that was supposed to open up a restaurant at the hotel.

It's kind of funny.  Someone with such an overextended ego like Trump.....get's in the "president game" to at least increase his "brand".....and ends up destroying it.   THAT....is what too much ego can do to someone.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-family-values-are-the-kids-starting-to-worry-about-dads-behavior-181141177.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-family-values-are-the-kids-starting-to-worry-about-dads-behavior-181141177.html)

Vladimir is going to start wondering why he and his Russian bankers ever loaned Comrade Donald money....:)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 03, 2016, 06:52:52 AM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/when-donald-trump-gets-in-a-hole-he-just-keeps-digging-and-digging-and-digging/ar-BBwUwxI?ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/when-donald-trump-gets-in-a-hole-he-just-keeps-digging-and-digging-and-digging/ar-BBwUwxI?ocid=spartandhp)

Here's a Washington Post article about how Trump keeps hurting his election chances by continually inflicting wounds on himself.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Zythryn on October 03, 2016, 02:06:08 PM
I don't know how much a debate matters to Trump supporters. ...

The debates aren't about changing minds of supporters, they are about getting the "undecided" voters.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on October 03, 2016, 04:29:11 PM
On a related question to that: how definite are people's voting intentions here? Minds made up, or still considering? (I should have put a "still very uncertain" option in the pol, perhaps).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 03, 2016, 06:54:13 PM
Some other thoughts on Trump's "tax return issue".....

1)  It is now known who the tax preparer was.....and he confirmed that it was he who prepared Trump's tax return.  He is an attorney AND CPA....and is 80 and retired.

2)  Whoever sent in the 3 pages of Trump's....may have more pages to send in.  I personally would LOVE to see his "Schedule A" of itemized deductions....and a list of "Contributions".

3)  Trump was married to Marla Maples in 1995.  Marla would....or could get access to....the tax return.

4)  There are likely quite a few CPA's still looking over the tax return....as well as wanting to see MORE of the tax return.  There are a LOT of issues that are likely buried in Trump's tax returns.

5)  As pointed out in one of the articles I read.....there was almost ASSURADELY some bank debt related to his $916 million dollar loss.  Who was the debt with?  Was any of the debt forgiven?

I would LOVE to see more of the tax return....and other tax returns for years AFTER 1995.

Enquiring minds want to know.... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 03, 2016, 09:59:03 PM
Some other thoughts on Trump's "tax return issue".....

 related to his $916 million dollar loss.  Who was the debt with?  Was any of the debt forgiven?


Buddy: In at least some cases, isnt forgiven debt considered income?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 03, 2016, 10:16:38 PM
Buddy: In at least some cases, isnt forgiven debt considered income?

YES.

Again...the little "snippit" of information we get from Trump's 1995 tax return will fuel the call to get Trump's FULL FEDERAL TAX RETURN.

A LOT of questions.....  Clinton is going to "ride that horse" for the next 5 weeks.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 03, 2016, 11:05:39 PM
Clinton up to almost 71% probability.  4% or more UP....and I will sleep a LOT better.... ;)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 04, 2016, 07:49:31 AM
On a related question to that: how definite are people's voting intentions here? Minds made up, or still considering? (I should have put a "still very uncertain" option in the pol, perhaps).

It comes down to who we find most distasteful, Trump or Clinton. I'd say most Clinton votes are reluctant votes. The "still very uncertain" are voting for Johnson or Stein. The one Trump vote is a bit of a mystery as I assume that just about all participants on the Forum are critical thinkers.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 04, 2016, 08:22:47 AM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-angers-with-suggestion-that-vets-with-ptsd-are-weak/ar-BBwXHeL?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-angers-with-suggestion-that-vets-with-ptsd-are-weak/ar-BBwXHeL?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp)

Trump angers with suggestion  that vets with ptsd are weak. Well, he's pissed off just about all demographics by now, why not go after those weak military veterans that had the temerity to acquire PTSD?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 04, 2016, 03:43:51 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/04/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-new-day-interview/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/04/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-new-day-interview/index.html)

Biden on Trump: "He's not a bad man but his ignorance is so profound"
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 04, 2016, 04:12:05 PM
Clinton "bounce" continues in the polls.  On fivethirtyeight.com...now up to 72.4%

A "chartist" in the stock market would look at the following chart of the polls and note the following for the chart "how the odds have changed" linked below:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

1)  Clinton's "initial high in the polls" was on June 29th at 80.3%

2)  Clinton's initial "low" in the polls was on July 30th at 49.9%

3)  Clinton's bounce after convention took her to a new "all time high" of 89.2%

4)  Clinton's "slide" from August 15th to Sept 26th took her to a "higher low" of 54.8%.  That low wasn't as low as her earlier low of 49.9%.....so it is called a "higher low".

5)  Clinton's current bounce is now up to 72.4%....and the next significant "point of resistance" is likely the initial high of 80.3% back on June 29th.

I am NOT a "chartist".....but charts ARE a "picture of the underlying psychology"....whether you are talking about stock markets...or political polls.

So while I am certainly NOT a strict "chartist"....I do watch them, because of the picture of the "underlying psychology" they represent.

A "chartist" will be looking for Clinton to have some "possible resistance" at the 80%ish level.  IF she were to push UP through that resistance level.....then the next point of resistance would be her all time high of 89.2%

Keep in mind....that the FUNDAMENTALS are what cause the chart.....NOT the other way around.

The "fundamentals" of the current politics is this:

1)  Clinton now has momentum due to a SERIES of Trump miscues and information coming to light.

2)  The second debate is coming up on Sunday....and it is a chance for EITHER (1) Trump to stop the bleeding, or (2) Trump to "bleed out" and continue his drop....and Hillary's rise.

3)  VP debate is tonight....and while it is NOT the "headline event"....it is a chance for Pence to help Trump.....or make things worse.  I don't "expect" either one to land any knockouts...but we'll find out later.

4)  There are hundreds of pages of tax returns that we have not yet seen just from the 1995 tax return.  Will we see them?

5)  We have Hurricane Matthew heading towards a track up the eastern seaboard of the US.  It could make landfall in Florida....or South Carolina....or North Carolina.  It has a lot of warm water underneath it.....will it make landfall before the debate?  Will it be an "event" to talk about?

FYI..unrelated:

We just had a floor company come in and repair some of our hardwood floor.  I asked the flooring guys (who happened to be Latina)....who they were voting for.  The "main guy" said he was voting for Trump.  So after they finished with the floors....I took 3 minutes of their time to show them 2 graphs (long term temps....and long term CO2) and explained to them that Donald Trump thinks those graphs are a hoax....and Hillary Clinton does NOT.  And their vote is crucial.... 

 


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 04, 2016, 04:29:41 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-backers-realize-they%E2%80%99ve-been-played-as-wikileaks-fails-to-deliver-october-surprise/ar-BBwYvPI?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-backers-realize-they%E2%80%99ve-been-played-as-wikileaks-fails-to-deliver-october-surprise/ar-BBwYvPI?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Julian Assange's much anticipated press conference earlier today disappointed a lot of Trump supporters. The Washington Post article reminds me of an event I went to in 1974 to see a faith healer who promised to "name the name" of the antichrist which of course was just a tease. Many event goers were profoundly disappointed, much like the people who anxiously awaited WikiLeaks press conference.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 05, 2016, 06:34:22 AM
Initial thoughts on the vice presidential debate:

1. Two experienced politicians that share some level of mutual respect, one (Pence) being very conservative, the other (Kaine) somewhat liberal. I thought they both did well, but I give the edge to Kaine. After last week's debate performance by Trump, I found the discourse to be far more professional.

2. I find it hard to comprehend how Pence could show up at this event and with a straight face, defend the actions of Donald Trump. However from what I consider to be an indefensible position, Pence did as good a job as possible to defend Trump, while attacking Clinton.

3. Kaine made no mention of climate change, while Pence championed the cause of coal several times.

4. Pence brought up points of view that conservatives have repeated often; weak foreign policy under Obama, the state of the US economy, and the budget deficit. All of this was said without consideration of who was president when the great recession occurred in 2008, or who started the war in Iraq under false pretenses. The president at the time was George W. Bush, a Republican.

5. Kaine did a better job controlling the dialogue by interrupting Pence often, while Pence shook his head a lot.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2016, 12:21:25 PM
Interesting debate last night.  My take:

1) Style points....Pence won
2) Substance points.....Kaine won
3) Loser of the debate.....Trump
4) Winner.....a few advertisements coming out of this one against Trump

In the US....we seem to have a "thing" for debates.  When is reality.....who "won" a debate, is all about "perception."

So the problem with debates.....is that most people judge on who they "perceived" to have won....instead of judging on WHO WAS RIGHT.

And that is how I always look at debates.  What was right.  Who didn't lie....and who did lie.  Mike Pence did a good job of "weaving and dodging".....but not of answering questions.

I like Kaine a LOT. Probably a little big "anxious" to prove that he can be "the pitbull" that a VP usually needs to be.  But if I were President...I would DEFINITELY want Tim Kaine on my team.  Kaine showed "good body language" (not of someone weaving and dodging)....and kept on the attack.  Pence was good at "rope a dope".....but not good at answering the questions.

And any thoughts of Pence running for president....I think are ridiculous.  If the Republicans choose a Pence or a Cruz next time around.....they will lose again.  Too much social conservatism....which the US is moving AWAY FROM.  US citizens are trying to tell the conservatives to STAY OUT OF THE BEDROOM.  And they aren't listening....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2016, 01:16:49 PM
A couple notes on the polls:

1)  North Carolina started early voting at least 2 weeks ago....so in another week or two, it will likely be "locked in".  Losing NC is death to any Trump dreams of being President.

2)  Florida continues to move further back into the Clinton camp.  And the combination of Florida AND North Carolina can not be overcome.

3)  Pennsylvania...moves further into the Clinton camp.

The next week appears to be make or break time for Trump.  Can he get a debate win....and shake Clinton?  I doubt it....but we'll find out Sunday.

In my best dream.....Clinton adds on wins in Arizona and Iowa and crushes Trump.  Unfortunately....we have another month to go, and anything can happen.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
 

John Kasich looks to be the one presidential candidate that will come out of this smelling like a rose....especially if Trump were to perform poorly over the coming month.  Also....Jeff Flake (Republican senator from Arizona comes out a winner).  Both of them refused to endorse or vote for Trump.....and both of them are "moderates".

Maybe the biggest loser.....if Trump does continue to do poorly in polls and eventually loses (especially if they lose big)...is the "Trump organization."  They....will be "on the ropes".  Within 4 years....they are likely toast.  Time will tell....





 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2016, 02:33:05 PM
Here are the most recent "approvability ratings" for both Gov Pence and Senator Kaine:

Kaine:  54 approve....26 disapprove

Pence:  45 approve....45 disapprove (it dropped since he joined Trump ticket)

Kaine is about "in the middle of the pack" regarding approval rating for senators.  Pence...only has 10 Governors with a lower approval rating.

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/behind-closed-doors/2016/09/20/poll-hoosiers-views-mike-pence-have-declined/90734760/ (http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/behind-closed-doors/2016/09/20/poll-hoosiers-views-mike-pence-have-declined/90734760/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2016, 08:25:47 PM
Bill Weld.....3rd party candidate for VP.....now concentrating on stopping Donald Trump:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/3bf02685-6c6e-3460-9a96-e9b4a096bae6/ss_libertarian-vp-candidate-bill.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/3bf02685-6c6e-3460-9a96-e9b4a096bae6/ss_libertarian-vp-candidate-bill.html)

This should help Clinton in the coming weeks, move some of the 3rd party vote from Johnson to Clinton...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 05, 2016, 11:43:44 PM
Using the same link above, you can read about Trump being unhappy with Pence about his performance in last night's debate. I thought Pence did well, but we all know the Donald is unpredictable. Maybe he'll go on another late night twitter rant?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 06, 2016, 04:46:39 PM
The bleeding continues for Trump.  Popular vote gap is back up to 5% on Nate Silver's site.

The fundamentals do NOT bode well for "The Donald":

1)  Post VP debate bleeding is far worse for Trump.  Pence may have won the debate on "optics".....but Trump is getting bashed by Pence's "looseness" with the truth...and his inability to defend Trump.

2)  The tax return fiasco is NOT going away.  Trump's tax preparer was on one of the talk shows last night.

3)  The endorsements for Trump are NONEXISTANT from papers/magazines.  The Atlantic absolutely SKEWERED HIM.

4)  Clinton has Obama, Obama's wife, Joe Biden, Chelsea Clinton, Senator Warren, and Senator Sanders out doing different rally's/events for Clinton.  Trump only has himself and Pence.  This will pay HUGE DIVIDENDS in this last month of "get out the vote".

5)  Clinton has an advantage of volunteers on the ground in battleground states.  Again...will pay dividends come voting day.

6)  Hurricane Matthew is likely a BIG HELP for Clinton....especially in Florida, and especially with millennial's......who are discovering that Gary Johnson wants to ignore global warming.  I expect Clinton to hit Trump with the climate change club on Sunday.  Even in Ohio....they want to act to slow down climate change.

If Trump doesn't stop the bleeding with a DEFINITE WIN on Sunday during the debate....the bleeding is likely to continue.

We could be looking at a =>6% "gap" in the popular vote by Sunday.  If Trump were to have another bad debate.....it would be "lights out".....and gap likely heading toward's 8 - 10% by November 8th.  If he has a good debate and "wins".....then bleeding might stop.   
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 06, 2016, 07:28:08 PM
More good news for the economy......and bad news for Trump and FOX News. 

Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week to the second-lowest level since 1973, as employers show scant willingness to fire workers amid a tightening labor market.

Jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to 249,000 in the week ended Oct. 1, a Labor Department report showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 256,000. Continuing claims declined to the lowest level since 2000.

Filings were just a hair above the four-decade low of 248,000 from April, a sign of minimal layoffs ahead of Friday’s monthly employment report. Companies are going head-to-head in finding skilled applicants amid record job openings, indications of a healthy labor market that may encourage Federal Reserve officials to raise the benchmark interest rate before the end of the year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/jobless-claims-in-u-s-decline-to-near-lowest-level-since-1973 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/jobless-claims-in-u-s-decline-to-near-lowest-level-since-1973)

On Friday (tomorrow)....is the MONTHLY "Jobs report" (as opposed to the WEEKLY jobless claims report above).  There is one more jobs report AFTER tomorrow's....but that last one will be after most of the "early voters" have already voted.  So tomorrow's jobs report is really the last major report that could be "pounced on" by the Republicans.


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on October 06, 2016, 09:40:07 PM
So - shortly Trump will face a test too - extreme weather meets properties - I wonder if he will be more aware of the implications of climate change, sea level rise and worsening storms afterwards ?

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/06/politics/donald-trump-florida-properties-mar-a-lago-hurricane-matthew/ (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/06/politics/donald-trump-florida-properties-mar-a-lago-hurricane-matthew/)

But - still hope everyone is OK.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 07, 2016, 06:43:22 AM
In regards to the Sean Hannity/Megyn Kelly disagreement, this opinion from CNN.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/06/opinions/megyn-kelly-sean-hannity-trump-safe-spaces-obeidallah/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/06/opinions/megyn-kelly-sean-hannity-trump-safe-spaces-obeidallah/index.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 07, 2016, 07:27:56 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37582318 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37582318)

According  to this BBC article, Trump said 70% of federal regulations could go at an event in New Hampshire.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 07, 2016, 01:09:48 PM
Trump path to 270 is slipping away.  According to John Harwood of CNBC....this is the path the Trump campaign has settled on for the last month of the campaign:

1)  Win Ohio, Iowa, and Maine 2nd District (which he was ahead in 1 - 2 weeks ago)
2)  Win "Romney states" from 2012....which included North Carolina
3)  Win Nevada, Florida, and New Hampshire


A)  Well....he's no longer ahead in Ohio and Iowa...although they are VERY CLOSE
B)  North Carolina is slipping further into Clinton country...and I'm sure that both Obama's will likely be spending time campaigning in North Carolina.  I actually think that it is too late for Trump to take North Carolina...because many of the votes have already been cast due to early voting.
C)  Nevada, Florida, and New Hampshire are moving further into the Clinton camp as well.  And Bernie will be campaigning heavily in New Hampshire.  I think NH is lost for Trump.

Unless Trump gets a "decisive victory" Sunday in debate #2....and/or some kind of "event" or "big mistake" by Clinton....the doors are shutting quickly on Trump.  Of course....the headlines in the New York Times will be:  "Clinton:  You're HIRED" if she is able to win.

http://www.businessinsider.com/can-donald-trump-win-path-2016-10 (http://www.businessinsider.com/can-donald-trump-win-path-2016-10)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
 



   
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 07, 2016, 03:15:56 PM
For those of you that may know something about golf.....or really about sports in general, you may know that it is hard to "change mechanics".  I'm talking about changing the mechanics of your swing in golf, or your swing in baseball, or your swing in tennis, etc.

That is because we get engrained HABITS.  In golf....Tiger Woods changed his swing a few times.  And it took him 1 - 2 YEARS to change it.  When people get under pressure....they go to what is comfortable for them.

That's why...in the coming debate on Sunday....I think it will be hard for Trump "to change a lot".  And if he is put under pressure by Clinton....he is LIKELY to go back to his old habits.

This doesn't mean that Clinton will win the debate.  She could have a bad debate, just like Obama did in his first debate four years ago.  But Obama was ALREADY a good debater.  It was just that in his first debate, he consciously "played it safe" and passive.

So on Sunday....I'll be watching Trump closely to see if he is able to change much.  The last debate he "held it together" for the first 20 minutes....and then fell back into his "old habits."  Will he be able to change for the whole 90 minutes this time?  Maybe....but I think the odds are against him being able to make a wholesale change.  Also....he needs to practice a LOT.  And he needs to do so under pressure.  Sunday will be interesting....

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 07, 2016, 05:32:01 PM
It sure will Buddy and I agree he is likely follow the route you described. This being a town hall debate, which will involve more audience participation may help him, especially if they side with him. I think this debate will be harder for Clinton to win.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 07, 2016, 06:37:02 PM
OUCH ;)  I wonder how Rudy is feeling today?  Looks like a lot of people are trying to get off the USS Trump before she goes down:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-daughter-clinton_us_57f7bc99e4b068ecb5ddd201?section=& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-daughter-clinton_us_57f7bc99e4b068ecb5ddd201?section=&)

If Chris Cristy's wife comes out in favor of Clinton....then we'll know its over:)  Of course.....Christy could be spending some time behind bars in the future.....and he might have a Democrat to share a cell with in New York governor Cuomo.  I say lock BOTH of them up.

This is the election that the Republican party gets blown up....and next election it will likely be the Democrat's turn.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 07, 2016, 11:12:12 PM
I think this one may be the fatal blow:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-women-comments_us_57f8016de4b0e655eab4148d (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-women-comments_us_57f8016de4b0e655eab4148d)

I would expect at least a few Republican endorsers to back out now.....before the floodgates open.

It will be interesting to see if Paul Ryan wants to be seen with Trump tomorrow in Wisconsin.  If I'm Paul Ryan....I call up and tell him NO F***ING WAY.  And then I pull my endorsement.

Maybe this one can bring Georgia back into play.....:)  Will certainly make for an entertaining debate on Sunday.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 07, 2016, 11:43:28 PM
Another Huffington Post article.  "Evangelical leaders don't want Trump to win".

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/evangelical-leaders-donald-trump_us_57f7b304e4b068ecb5ddc355? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/evangelical-leaders-donald-trump_us_57f7b304e4b068ecb5ddc355?)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 08, 2016, 04:28:25 AM
Well....well....well.  Where do I start?  How about the beginning:

1)  The GOP is in a world of hurt.
2)  You think that Kelly Ayotte would like to have her words back .....saying that Donald Trump was a roll model?
3)  Remember......early voting has already started.  So what happens if Trump drops out?
4)  Sorry.......I'm shaking my head.  I always thought it was incredible that ANYONE COULD VOTE FOR TRUMP.  AND THAT WAS BEFORE THIS SCANDAL BROKE.  Now....how could anyone vote for him?
5)  Before...I said Trump would be in bankruptcy within 4 years.  You can now move that up a bit.  Three or two years is now more like it.  He is now pondscum.  And financially nobody will touch him.
6)  Debate on Sunday?  Maybe not.
7)  Remember....we have a split supreme court right now.  This could end in an ugly way.  GOP will want someone else on the ballot if there is any legal way to do that...and Democrats will want Trump on their side of the ticket or nobody.  There may not be a way because voting has already started in many States.

It doesn't get any crazier than this.....or does it?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 08, 2016, 06:33:01 AM
Well....well....well.  Where do I start?  How about the beginning:


It doesn't get any crazier than this.....or does it?


I think I mentioned once before Buddy that you seem to be enjoying this TOO much (lol). Well, so am I!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ryan-%E2%80%98sickened%E2%80%99-by-trump%E2%80%99s-lewd-comments-in-video/ar-BBx9zT2?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ryan-%E2%80%98sickened%E2%80%99-by-trump%E2%80%99s-lewd-comments-in-video/ar-BBx9zT2?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Ryan sickened by Trump's lewd comments on video".  Ryan to Trump; Don't campaign with me!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 08, 2016, 06:44:40 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37593392 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37593392)

From the BBC, "Senior Republicans condemn Trump's lewd comments about women".

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/07/politics/donald-trump-women-vulgar/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/07/politics/donald-trump-women-vulgar/index.html)

Trump apologizes. This is as close as I've seen Trump issuing a heartfelt apology, yet he cant apologize without making reference to Bill Clinton's indiscretions (which we've known for almost two decades). He should have left off all ref's to Bill and Hillary Clinton. It would have had a far more positive impact on his chances for election. He just isn't capable of doing that I guess and it's ultimately going to hurt him. His campaign has been and continues to be a "death from a thousand self-inflicted cuts".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 08, 2016, 01:59:48 PM
Budmantis:

I would have much preferred that Trump never would have made it this far.  It was always clear to me he was a con.  If it walks like a rat....talks like a rat.....and acts like a rat.....it's usually a rat.

The debate on Sunday will be ugly.  Chuck Todd probably said it best:   "The only question now is whether or not Trump will set himself on fire Sunday."

I expect he will.  I expect Trump to destroy himself.  His ego is in full control.  There is no backing down now.  The only question is .....do the Democrats win enough seats to take the Senate....and can Hillary beat Trump by 10%?  Right now the polls are at 6% popular vote difference.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 08, 2016, 02:42:38 PM
One of my favorite heavy metal albums was Ozzy Osbourne's "Diary of a Madman". Trump's campaign has been just that. All someone has to do is replace Ozzy's face with Trump. The hair can stay pretty much the same!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on October 08, 2016, 02:50:23 PM
Kind of preaching to the choir here. I wouldn't write down Trump. His voters are not driven by the same logic presented here, but by some perverse anti-logic that has its own internal rules. I've seen it here in Israel unfortunately, the more the media expose the candidate's lies and attack him, sometimes the more he is strengthened come election day. Even worse, some of these are people who lie to pollsters on purpose or never respond to polls.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 08, 2016, 03:02:12 PM
I wouldn't write down Trump. His voters are not driven by the same logic presented here, but by some perverse anti-logic that has its own internal rules.


I agree with you regarding his hard core supporters.  He literally could shoot someone and they would be fine with it.

BUT....he will lose votes or push them to Hillary from the following:

1)  Moderate Republicans who were already on the fence
2)  Independents who hadn't made up their mind yet
3)  Gary Johnson supporters who are already being nudged to Hillary because Johnson has been having his own hellish couple of weeks.
4)  Women voters except for his hard core women supporters.

So he WILL continue to pay a price at the polls.  If he was running against ANYONE ELSE....he likely wouldn't get 30% of the vote.  But because there is a strong anti Clinton wing....he will likely get close to 40%.  But if he becomes TOTALLY UNHINGED on Sunday.....you could see his numbers in November go lower....

He is at 43% right now and heading south...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 08, 2016, 08:13:01 PM
So....Donald Trump is huddling with his "inner circle".  Who is in his inner circle?

1)  Rudy Gulliani who is on wife #3.....and cheated on his first two wives.
2)  Newt Gingrich who is on wife #3....and cheated on his first two wives, and took divorce papers into his then soon-to-be ex-wife when she was in the hospital for cancer.
3)  Roger Ailes....fired from FOX news for his sexual exploits with co-workers
4)  Chris Christy.....Governor of New Jersey....and one of the most aggressive personalities in politics.  Christy lied about "Bridgegate"....and both he and Democratic governor of New York Cuomo, could be charged in the future for lying about Bridgegate.

So if those are Trumps "confidants"....what could possibly go wrong...... :)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 08, 2016, 09:47:35 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/donald-trump-withdraw-republicans-race/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/donald-trump-withdraw-republicans-race/index.html)

As more Republicans are calling on him to step aside, Trump says "zero chance I'll quit". Article includes comments by Pence and Trump's wife.

I hope he doesn't quit, because he has a near zero chance to get elected president, whereas Mike Pence would have at least some chance, should he replace Trump at the top of the Republican ticket.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 08, 2016, 09:52:44 PM
So....Donald Trump is huddling with his "inner circle".  Who is in his inner circle?

1)  Rudy Gulliani who is on wife #3.....and cheated on his first two wives.
2)  Newt Gingrich who is on wife #3....and cheated on his first two wives, and took divorce papers into his then soon-to-be ex-wife when she was in the hospital for cancer.
3)  Roger Ailes....fired from FOX news for his sexual exploits with co-workers
4)  Chris Christy.....Governor of New Jersey....and one of the most aggressive personalities in politics.  Christy lied about "Bridgegate"....and both he and Democratic governor of New York Cuomo, could be charged in the future for lying about Bridgegate.

So if those are Trumps "confidants"....what could possibly go wrong...... :)

Trump's "gang" of four.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 08, 2016, 10:39:35 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-donald-trump-leaked-tape-2016-10 (http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-donald-trump-leaked-tape-2016-10)

In the link above....Mark Cuban said:  "Bernie Madoff now has a better brand than Trump, and there's going to be a mass exodus."

A lot of folks out there doing some grave dancing....

OUCH.... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 09, 2016, 03:15:17 AM
Paul Krugman believes that it would be "criminally irresponsible" for the two remaining presidential debate moderators to allow the candidates to avoid debating climate change:


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/krugman-climate-change-presidential-debate_us_57f7e704e4b068ecb5de12cd (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/krugman-climate-change-presidential-debate_us_57f7e704e4b068ecb5de12cd)

Extract: "Paul Krugman is calling on moderators of the two remaining presidential debates to press the candidates on global warming.

In his Friday column in The New York Times, the Nobel prize-winning economist said climate change “should be a central issue in this campaign” and failing to push the issue would be “criminally irresponsible.” "
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 09, 2016, 03:33:51 AM
Independent voters in the townhall.......I think the questions are coming from 40 "undecided" voters.  So I would not be surprised to hear a question or two on climate change/energy.

Debate 3......forget it.  Chris Wallace from FOX NON-SCIENCE channel.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 09, 2016, 03:50:00 PM
One or both of the following things likely to happen WITHIN the coming week or coming days:

1)  Mike Pence leaves the ticket...and leaves Donald hanging from a tree by his little balls...all by his lonesome.....and his little hands.
2)  Trump "negotiates" his exit from the race.  And yes...#1 and #2 are connected.

Pence has already "partially left".  But I expect Pence to tell Donald that he (Pence) will NOT support Trump, and will leave the ticket.  Donald then has two choices:

A)  Continue campaigning using his own funds...and without support (both financial AND manpower) of the RNC....(not likely)

B)  Trump negotiates a "payout" for his expenses incurred (yes....Donald would cheat on this too....and he would at least try to get much more payment than he has in services).....and drops out.

Either way....Trump is now toast.  Remember....financially, Trump has already begun to "feel the hurt" from customers leaving (decreased business at his properties and companies over the last year).  Now that his brand is being totally wrecked.....the speed at which they will leave his products/properties will increase.

"The King"....will be totally naked....for everyone to see.   That is what happens when the tide goes out.  Those not wearing a swimsuit are exposed (eeewwwww....sorry for the graphic ???).

Too bad "The Apprentice" out-takes haven't been seen yet.  They would absolutely annihilate Trump's kingdom.     
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2016, 04:02:28 PM
This.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 09, 2016, 04:34:09 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/donald-trump-video-women-remarks-republicans/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/donald-trump-video-women-remarks-republicans/index.html)

CNN article, "Jumping off the Trump train", updated this morning. I'm actually starting to feel bad for these Republicans.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 03:51:13 AM
Napoleon Bonaparte once said:  "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

Barrack Obama used that bit of advice against Mitt Romney.....and I expect to see Hillary Clinton use that against Trump tonight.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 10, 2016, 08:15:53 AM
This 'news' reached the other side of the Altlantic. I don't have much to add to that. ;)
http://youtu.be/-Q-ZyW9bz5c (http://youtu.be/-Q-ZyW9bz5c)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on October 10, 2016, 11:28:24 AM
Does anyone else expect turnout to be low and spoiled ballots high this time? I can't remember an election where both leading candidates were this unpopular.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 02:57:11 PM
Does anyone else expect turnout to be low and spoiled ballots high this time? I can't remember an election where both leading candidates were this unpopular.

To answer your SECOND point first....there hasn't EVER been an election where BOTH candidates were so "disliked".  Not even close.  Apparently....Goldwater in 1964 was extremely disliked, but Lyndon Johnson wasn't disliked.

Your turnout question is an interesting one though, because the extremes of BOTH sides hate the other one so much.  I'm an Independent.....and I wouldn't miss voting in this election for the world because I can't stomach the thought of a President Trump....it would make me vomit.

It will be interesting to see "who stayed home" for this election and didn't vote come November 8.  Is it going to be the moderate Republicans.....or the moderate Democrats?  I am NOW biased....because I am going to vote for Clinton....but I think the moderate Republicans have a greater chance of "staying home" and not voting. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 10, 2016, 02:58:12 PM
This 'news' reached the other side of the Altlantic. I don't have much to add to that. ;)

Thanks for posting this Sleepy. I'm still trying to digest what happened in the last two days and how Trump performed in the debate last night. I'm no fan of Clinton and there are still some unanswered questions about her past, but I simply cant wrap my head around how Trump was even able to show his face in public last night and then tells Clinton he's going to have her investigated and tells her she should be in jail? She's been investigated for the last four years over Benghazi and then the private e-mail server. DeNiro is right, and I'd like to punch Trump in the face too.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on October 10, 2016, 03:20:01 PM
Watched the debate from here in Europe.  Trump looked really creepy pacing around and haunting Hillary - or seeming to ignore the whole process....   

The split screen (with text behind) was off-putting. I think they should have had a plain background with the camera zooming and moving with the candidates.   

Trump seemed to have some better lines than 1st debate - but repeated shallow insults so often they sounded trite and hollow.  In his opinion everything is a disaster - no wonder he doesn't want to put anything towards paying taxes!

Hillary did well with her experience list, 400 bills sounds a lot - compared with Trumps broad-brush rubbishing what she had done, without appearing to know anything or how the processes would work.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ritter on October 10, 2016, 05:42:57 PM
Tuned in to the "debate" for a few minutes then turned it off to avoid puking or hurling the tablet across the room.  ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 10, 2016, 06:47:15 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/10/opinions/clinton-trump-second-debate-roundup/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/10/opinions/clinton-trump-second-debate-roundup/index.html)

So who won the debate? This CNN article gives a few opinions.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 10, 2016, 07:13:00 PM
Does anyone else expect turnout to be low and spoiled ballots high this time? I can't remember an election where both leading candidates were this unpopular.

With every setback the Trump campaign encounters, the Donald counters by doubling down on the offensive, stooping to the lowest levels as I've ever seen. I could be wrong but I think his strategy is actually focusing and sharpening the dislike each side has for each other and it is turning into hate. I don't know if this will lead to riots, but I cant rule it out.

I always try to not hate anybody, but when I woke up this morning, I had hate in my heart. I not only wanted to punch him in the face, I wanted to separate his head from his torso! If I'm feeling this level of anger, I can imagine a lot of other people are too and where will this lead us to? I am very concerned about this, and I hope this marks the lowest point we ever get to in this Republic of ours.

Getting back to your question Paddy, I think there will be a high turnout and third party voting will be very low because of the reasons I mentioned.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 07:41:42 PM
Biggest winners of the debate:

1)  John Kasich, Republican governor of Ohio...who has NEVER endorsed Trump
2)  Jeff Flake, Republican Senator from Arizona...who has NEVER endorsed Trump

Both of those I view as the strongest candidates for 2020 presidential election.

3)  Comedians.  Probably the biggest winners in the debate.

Can you see Alex Baldwin hovering over Hillary Clinton?  Or a "locker" following Alex Baldwin around WHEREVER he goes?  The only thing better for comedians....would be if Trump would win.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 07:46:49 PM
Biggest LOSERS of the debate:

1)  Mike Pence.  It appears now, that he is NOT going to take his chance "to run away".  He never had a decent chance to win in 2020....but ANY chance he had...is now gone.  He has now painted himself with Trump's stench.

2)  Paul Ryan.  Somewhat like Pence.  He had a chance today....to "get out of Dodge"...but has chosen to keep his endorsement.  That stench will follow him as well....not as much as Pence...but he will still smell.

3)  Trump:  He needed a win BADLY.  And as Nate Silverman and others have said....he didn't get it.

4)  Republican Party:  In whole....the Republican party now has two large weights that will hold them down in coming years:  (a)  Donald Trump's candidacy...and (b) their ridiculous position on global warming.

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 10, 2016, 07:59:11 PM
I think you left out one name in your list of biggest losers Buddy; Ted Cruz, who only recently endorsed Trump. Here's a CNN article by a debate coach giving his insight into Sunday's debate.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/10/opinions/debate-coach-grading-the-town-hall-debate-graham/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/10/opinions/debate-coach-grading-the-town-hall-debate-graham/index.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 08:26:57 PM
Here's a good article on "who won the debate" last night:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/who-won-the-debate-polls-betting-markets-focus-groups.html (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/who-won-the-debate-polls-betting-markets-focus-groups.html)

By the way....Frank Leuntz is a Republican hack/strategist (so I would believe him almost as much as I would Sean Hannity ;)).

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 08:34:49 PM
I think you left out one name in your list of biggest losers Buddy; Ted Cruz, who only recently endorsed Trump.

I think that Cruz was definitely a loser....but probably not a big loser.  It is only in Ted's mind, that he still has a chance of becoming president.  Much like Scott Walker, the Governor of Wisconsin.  Neither one of those guys really EVER had a chance...and that goes for 2020.

Barry Goldwater had to learn the hard way.....that going to far to the right, is a killer.  Walker and Cruz were "exposed" this last cycle.  Mike Pence....is also WAY too far to the right on social issues....and he will be "filleted" next time around in 2020 if he tries to run.

Can't be too far to the left....and can't be too far to the right.  It is the MODERATE MIDDLE 30% that decides elections....it is NOT the far left OR the far right (which probably irritates both sides:).



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 09:02:00 PM
Sometimes you can repair a "leaky faucet" without too much of an expense.  Other times....the plumbing is rotten to the core....and leaks keep popping up....and the house needs to be "re-piped".

Here is just the first of what will likely be a continual stream of leaks to come:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-apprentice-transcript_us_57fbc511e4b0e655eab65823 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-apprentice-transcript_us_57fbc511e4b0e655eab65823)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-gofundme-campaign-tapes_us_57fb8ccbe4b0b6a43033c95f (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-gofundme-campaign-tapes_us_57fb8ccbe4b0b6a43033c95f)

Trump is one TOTALLY rotten pipe.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 09:38:19 PM
If you want to get in an argument about religion....you probably shouldn't go after the pope (Trump did).

If you want to get in an argument about finance or the economy....you probably shouldn't go after this guy:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/buffett-just-released-own-tax-160701279.html (https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/buffett-just-released-own-tax-160701279.html)

Trump's poor decision making is on full display now.  He is in the downward spiral which he may not recover from....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on October 10, 2016, 09:47:57 PM
If you want to get in an argument about religion....you probably shouldn't go after the pope (Trump did).

If you want to get in an argument about finance or the economy....you probably shouldn't go after this guy:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/buffett-just-released-own-tax-160701279.html (https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/buffett-just-released-own-tax-160701279.html)

Trump's poor decision making is on full display now.  He is in the downward spiral which he may not recover from....

Trump is an idiot and a jerk and many other negative things besides- doesn't mean he can't get elected. Social anger and widespread ignorance give him the chance. And in my personal experience, the hatemongers gain lots of votes compared to the level-headed types.
(I really wish my fear is unfounded, as Trump will be the last straw for the globe)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2016, 10:01:12 PM
Trump is an idiot and a jerk and many other negative things besides- doesn't mean he can't get elected.

THAT....is very true.  I hope you are wrong (this time).  All "we" can do...is to shine a light on FACTS....SCIENCE.....AND THE TRUTH.

The old truism is right on target:  You can lead a horse to water....but you can't make him drink.  And the same holds true with this election.

I have a "running banter" with a neighbor that is about 10 years older than I am or more....and we have a good relationship....but he doesn't care that he can't point out FACTS.  He has this "belief" (I would call it blind belief).  Truly amazing....

So....again....you are right Oren about what CAN happen.  Hopefully....for ALL OF US...it won't happen.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on October 10, 2016, 11:30:56 PM
Trump is an idiot and a jerk and many other negative things besides- doesn't mean he can't get elected. <SNIP>(I really wish my fear is unfounded, as Trump will be the last straw for the globe)

that were my exact words before GWB was elected and it all happened and the downfall (of the country) began ( to show ) BTW the articla i wrote back then was well registred as i found out when i came to NY the next time ( lengthy questioning at immigration and so on haha...)

let's see how it goes this time, can't imagine the worst case to be honest.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 11, 2016, 12:22:03 AM
In the linked article Rolling Stone magazine states: "It is time to ask serious questions about where Trump's loyalties lie."

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/donald-trump-is-americas-enemy-w444092 (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/donald-trump-is-americas-enemy-w444092)

Extract: "Sunday night, the Republican nominee for president of the United States took the side of a journalist-murdering dictator over his own country.

This was a remarkable, even unprecedented, moment in the history of presidential politics. We can argue whether Russia is an enemy or a frenemy, a rival power or a potential threat, but the autocratic Vladimir Putin is working against American interests and, according to virtually all credible sources, actively engaged in hacking to influence this election.

The Trump campaign's ties to Russia are more than troubling – they're terrifying. His former campaign chairman made millions working for a Russia-backed autocrat who used to rule Ukraine. His top national security adviser has buddied up to Putin. And Trump has personally pursued business opportunities in Russia for decades. His rhetoric on the campaign trail has been solicitous of Putin and, like his words about Syria in the debate, often parroted the Russian line. These are not coincidences. This is a dangerous pattern.

Trump threatened to jail his opponent if he became president. It was a chilling moment that revealed the depth of his ignorance and disdain for the principles that actually make America great. It was also a window into how his presidency would change our country. Sunday night, Trump made it clear he wants us to look a lot more like Putin's Russia."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 11, 2016, 01:33:10 AM
Here's a big victory for democracy in Florida:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-voter-registration_us_57fc0791e4b068ecb5e11a24?section=& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-voter-registration_us_57fc0791e4b068ecb5e11a24?section=&)

People OF ALL STRIPES need to understand that the Rick Scott's (Gov of Florida), Scott Walker (Gov of Wisconsin), and MANY OTHERS.....want to LIMIT voting.

This presidential election is SOOOO  very important for democracy here in the US.  The Citizens United decision HAS TO BE OVERTURNED.  It is HORRIBLE for democracy.....because it enables BIG MONEY to control things.

VOTE....VOTE....VOTE.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 11, 2016, 03:16:20 AM
Putin is defending Trump for mutual benefit:

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/07/un-critic-donald-trump-geert-wilders-must-silenced-russia-says/

Extract: "RUSSIA’S AMBASSADOR TO the United Nations filed a formal complaint last month demanding that the head of the world body’s human rights organization cease criticizing Donald Trump and other anti-Muslim politicians."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 11, 2016, 07:23:06 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/10/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-nasty-race/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/10/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-nasty-race/index.html)

The CNN article states Clinton's campaign preparing for an even nastier race.

I'm glad there has been more activity on this thread. Trump has no doubt fired up his core supporters but his actions are also firing up people who oppose what he stands for and I believe there are many more people who oppose him than support him.

I hope this election sends a message to the world that despite Trump's candidacy and his core supporters, as misguided as they are, there is an overwhelming majority that reject him and what he stands for. I hope that the message conveyed on election day is "We are better people than this". 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 11, 2016, 10:32:09 AM
budmantis, the majority needs to speak out, here politicians and people made the same error during the early days of the Sweden Democrats. Well, ignoring and staying silent didn't work.

Following all of this reminds me of watching horror movies as a kid, afraid to watch but I couldn't stop. I'm obviously not entitled to vote in this thread but to me this is not only about the US so now I will go OT. I trimmed down a part from the video with Zeid's speech in ASLR's post above, instead of quoting it, attached below. It's worth listening to all of it, but this part is essential since it reflects on the reality we humans wish to forget.

This is happening all over the world, here we have the Sweden Democrats, in Finland they have Perussuomalaiset "the true fins". To be able to fight, seems to be a common trait simple enough for all of the populistic parties to respect and relate to. Zeid has a Swedish mother, I don't, my parents grew up during WW2 in Finland. There the uglier voices want's to tag those they consider to be immigrants to help the police to spot them, I recently read a comment here in Sweden posted by a low level creep that want's to gas everyone that moved here since the 60's. Both examples would include me and my entire family. But the dangerous one's are all of those who are intelligent enough to silently support theses ideologies that only puts people against each other and ultimately to death and war, those who only talk freely if they consider you as a friend.

This elongated horror movie is for real.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 11, 2016, 01:37:59 PM
More cracks forming in the Republican edifice:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/10/beth-moore-the-christian-women-speaking-out-about-trump-s-bad-news.html?via=desktop&source=facebook (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/10/beth-moore-the-christian-women-speaking-out-about-trump-s-bad-news.html?via=desktop&source=facebook)

‘Stand Up, As Jesus Did’
Powerful Evangelical Women Split From Male Church Leaders to Slam Trump:
Among conservative evangelicals, women like Beth Moore are splitting from men and asking of them: ‘When will you believe me and stand up for me?’
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 11, 2016, 01:59:46 PM
Evangelical magazine speaks out AGAINST Trump:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/evangelical-magazine-publishes-scathing-anti-trump-editorial-013004224.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/evangelical-magazine-publishes-scathing-anti-trump-editorial-013004224.html)

Another "leg" of Trump support is weakening....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 11, 2016, 03:11:35 PM
Here is some historical perspective on the national popular vote percentages over the years.  All of them are ACTUAL NUMBERS except for the current race of course.  You can see that there hasn't been a "double digit" winner since 1984:

1960  Kennedy/Nixon              .3%
1964  Johnson/Goldwater     22.6%   This is what happens when you are too far to the right
1968  Nixon/Humphrey            .7%
1972  Nixon/McGovern         23.2%   NOTE A
1976  Carter/Ford                  2.1%
1980  Reagan/Carter              9.7%
1984  Reagan/Mondale          18.2%  This is what happens when you are too far to the left
1988  Bush/Dukakis                7.7%
1992  Clinton/Bush                 5.6%
1996  Clinton/Dole                  8.5%
2000  Bush/Gore                    (.5)%  Gore lost...but had more popular votes than Bush nationally
2004  Bush/Kerry                   2.5%
2008  Obama/McCain              7.3%
2012  Obama/Romney            3.9%
2016  Clinton/Trump               5.9% on Nate Silvers 538.com as of 10/10/2016

NOTE A:  In 1972 Nixon had a landslide victory over McGovern.  Of course....he ultimately RESIGNED from office because he would have been impeached had he not.  This was how insecure Nixon was....that he thought his folks had to use "dirty tricks" to get re-elected...and those dirty tricksters after being caught....led to his resignation.  EGO....it kills.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 11, 2016, 03:26:32 PM
Those Clinton/Trump polls are already outdated:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-after-trump-tape-revelation-clinton-s-lead-double-digits-n663691 (http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-after-trump-tape-revelation-clinton-s-lead-double-digits-n663691)

NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton by 11%

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 11, 2016, 03:27:34 PM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-pulled-back-kill-shot-145130698.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-pulled-back-kill-shot-145130698.html)

CNBC article dated 10/10/16 speculating that Clinton held back on a kill shot during the debate fearing it would result in Trump being dumped from the ticket. The article states that Trump faced rape allegations from former wife Ivana Trump. Now Trump faces one from a woman who was thirteen years old at the time the alleged act occurred. Trump has repeatedly denied the allegations. The allegations concerning the minor is new to me. Has anyone else heard about this?

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 11, 2016, 05:10:16 PM
The allegations concerning the minor is new to me. Has anyone else heard about this?


The linked article explains that a hearing is now scheduled by a judge to determine the truth of this allegation:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-rape-accusation-underage-girl-claim-what-happened-sexual-assault-allegation-a7354111.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-rape-accusation-underage-girl-claim-what-happened-sexual-assault-allegation-a7354111.html)

Extract: "A judge has ordered a status conference hearing into a lawsuit submitted by a woman who claims Donald Trump raped her when she was 13-years-old in 1994.

Federal Judge Ronnie Abrams has ordered the hearing for 16 December in a New York court. She has asked for both sides to provide information to assist the Court in advancing the case to settlement or trial.

In the lawsuit the plaintiff, identifed by the pseudonym Jane Doe, alleges Mr Trump "initiated sexual contact" with her at four different parties when she was 13.

At the fourth encounter, she alleges he tied her to a bed "then proceeded to forcibly rape" her."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 11, 2016, 05:13:33 PM
Q:  What do Donald Trump and a Samsung mobile phone have in common?

A:  They are both melting down...... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 11, 2016, 05:43:02 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/glenn-beck-standing-against-trump-is-moral-ethical-choice/ar-BBxidPQ?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/glenn-beck-standing-against-trump-is-moral-ethical-choice/ar-BBxidPQ?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Here's something I never expected to see. Glenn Beck says standing against Trump and voting for Clinton is a moral, ethical choice.

P.S. Beck has since partially retracted his statement.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 11, 2016, 05:50:02 PM
Q:  What do Donald Trump and a Samsung mobile phone have in common?

A:  They are both melting down...... ;)

Sorry but couldn't resist.

Or, perhaps even better is the "Great and powerful Oz"! Perhaps the man behind the curtain is Putin.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 12, 2016, 02:52:51 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/11/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-2016/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/11/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-2016/index.html)

"Pence chides woman calling for "Revolution" if Clinton wins. I wonder how many Trump supporters are this far out on the lunatic fringe?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 12, 2016, 03:24:50 PM
Arizona turns "blue" at fivethirtyeight.com:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

And now...with McCain pulling his endorsement of Trump, I would not be surprised if Clinton were to actually win Arizona come November 8th.

If Trump has to "defend" Arizona.....then Colorado is already lost....and Nevada may be lost by Trump as well.

His "map" is NOT looking good right now.....which absolutely breaks my heart ;)

Here is a "non-endorsement" that pretty much slams Trump....by the Wall Street Journal (which is owned by FOX owner Ruppert Murdoch's company):

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/10/wsjs-editorial-board-republicans-cant-be-blamed-for-dropping-trump-229437 (http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/10/wsjs-editorial-board-republicans-cant-be-blamed-for-dropping-trump-229437)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 12, 2016, 03:44:40 PM
One other thing to watch over the next few days....is the polls.  Do they KEEP trending in Clinton's favor as the polls that cover the debate come in?

Momentum is a POWERFUL THING in life.  And it can be hard to overcome.  If the polls keep moving against Trump....you could see another "wave" of "unendorsements".  And if Ryan and/or Mitch McConell (the Republican leader in the Senate) were to do that.....that would be the fatal blow that causes Trump to bleed out.

Just as climate feedback effects continue to warm the planet.....the feedback effects of losing endorsements and losing polls......causes more loss of endorsements and losing even greater in the polls.

For all intents and purposes....I believe he will have already lost if he can't recover some by this weekend. Too many minds are now made up....and too many votes have already been cast in early voting.

And what would of....or could of....been a close race.....could become a rout of => 10% popular vote difference.



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 12, 2016, 03:51:57 PM
http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/12/major-gop-donors-are-asking-trump-for-their-money-back/21580613/ (http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/12/major-gop-donors-are-asking-trump-for-their-money-back/21580613/)

Major GOP donors asking Trump for their money back. I wonder what his answer will be?!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 12, 2016, 06:00:24 PM
Since it is October, maybe we should buy a trumpkin!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 12, 2016, 07:19:42 PM
This is from a "Football Pool" website I visit, and probably more accurately reflects the shadow votes that Trump is amassing.  Whether they turn out to vote or not remains to be seen.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 12, 2016, 07:51:07 PM
THIS....would be a real shocker to me if Clinton pulled out Utah:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doanld-trump-utah-poll_us_57fe4bb3e4b05eff55809d3c (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doanld-trump-utah-poll_us_57fe4bb3e4b05eff55809d3c)

I doubt that Clinton can ultimately beat Trump in Utah.....BUT....it is Romney country, and everyone KNOWS that Mitt HATES TRUMP....and Mitt is a "big cheese" in the Mormon Church.

Still..........that would be crazy.  The last 3 presidential elections....the percentage of vote received by the Republican was 72% Romney....63% McCain....73% Bush.  THAT...is how crazy it would be.

This is about the time when I expect the polls to go BACK in the other direction (towards Trump).  But I'll be watching the 538.com site over the next few days to see where this "settles out" in the short term.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 13, 2016, 04:59:50 AM
Looks like the USS Trump is taking several more "broadsides"  ;) tonight.  Not sure how much more water this ship can take.  It is 70 years old ::)

I have to think that speaker Ryan has a good chance of pulling his endorsement.  And unless the Republican party wants to be known as the creepy lechorous party......the RNC may have to throw in the towel as well.

Polls will be interesting to see this weekend.  Could be BRUTAL.

Predator in chief Trump is in deep shit.  No other way to put it.....with all the accusations breaking tonight of "predatory behavior".  Airline flights.....Miss Teenage USA issues....Miss Universe issues.  Saturday Night Live will have to extend their show to 2 hours this week.

He is going to be turned into a laughing stock of NY City.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 13, 2016, 08:13:51 AM
I guess everything is bigger in the US. Even the "nice guys":
http://youtu.be/M5KTiAcTEyc (http://youtu.be/M5KTiAcTEyc)

A somewhat less sulphurous reply:
http://youtu.be/OYRJOtJ3OHw (http://youtu.be/OYRJOtJ3OHw)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 13, 2016, 08:35:54 AM
Sleepy: That sulphurous smell must be the "mark of the beast" (666). We are living in scary times, thank god there are people like Alex Jones to set us on the right path! It's IDIOTS like this and other conservative talk show hosts that have the masses stirred up into a frenzy.

I'm the youngest of six and most of my older sibs are all in for Trump. There is no reasoning with them at this point. Critical thinking has been cast aside. What we're seeing is "true believerism", or even worse, a mob mentality. I wish this would end on November 9, but it wont.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 13, 2016, 08:57:02 AM
Looks like the USS Trump is taking several more "broadsides"  ;) tonight.  Not sure how much more water this ship can take.  It is 70 years old ::)


Polls will be interesting to see this weekend.  Could be BRUTAL.



http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/media/donald-trump-polls/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/media/donald-trump-polls/index.html)

Donald Trump's poll denialism. With a demagogue like Trump and a faithful following believing everything he says, he can create his own reality for people living in "Trumpworld".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 13, 2016, 09:10:59 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/12/politics/us-russia-tensions-cold-war/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/12/politics/us-russia-tensions-cold-war/index.html)

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/media/new-york-times-donald-trump-lawsuit-threat/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/media/new-york-times-donald-trump-lawsuit-threat/index.html)

Putin and Trump's aggressive behavior. Is the timing a coincidence or is there more to this story?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 13, 2016, 09:13:41 AM
I'm the youngest of six and most of my older sibs are all in for Trump. There is no reasoning with them at this point. Critical thinking has been cast aside. What we're seeing is "true believerism", or even worse, a mob mentality. I wish this would end on November 9, but it wont.
Almost the same here, I'm the youngest of five, the two good one's have passed away and the other two simply doesn't care about other people, only themselves.

I couldn't agree more, this will not end in November. Populism, conspiracy theories and BS obviously sells. :(
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 13, 2016, 01:11:27 PM
The Trump electoral map to 270 now looks like this.  He has to take ALL the following battleground states that he is now behind in:

1)  Iowa
2)  Arizona
3)  Ohio
4)  Nevada
5)  Florida
6)  North Carolina (the Obama's are heavily campaigning in NC)
7)  New Hampshire (unlikely...about 7% gap in popular vote)

All of them are now "blue states".....but all of them EXCEPT for New Hampshire are within 1% - 4% according to the latest polls.

I did NOT include Pennsylvania...because Trump has NO CHANCE in Pennsylvania now...it is about 9% away from him and moving further.  I also didn't include Colorado....it's about the same as Penn.  I don't think he can take New Hampshire either.....because Bernie in Vermont is all over that like "white on rice."

I also didn't include Utah, Georgia, and Alaska....which are now a few points IN the Trump camp....but moving towards neutral.  Utah, Georgia, and Alaska......who would have "thunk it"?

The odds of him pulling this off are about like the odds of being dealt a royal flush.  He has a chance....but his odds are becoming VERY LONG.  New Hampshire pretty much will put him away unless Hillary is caught in bed with Melania Trump :o

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 13, 2016, 03:46:45 PM
http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/13/donald-trumps-campaign-plans-to-go-buck-wild-and-paint-bill-c/21581687/ (http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/13/donald-trumps-campaign-plans-to-go-buck-wild-and-paint-bill-c/21581687/)

Trump campaign plans to portray Bill Clinton as Bill Cosby, as well as claiming Hillary Clinton took part in victim intimidation. The move is designed to suppress the vote of millennial women.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 13, 2016, 07:47:54 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mr-trump-slipping-in-the-polls-warns-of-a-%E2%80%9Cstolen-election%E2%80%9D/ar-AAiTTv7?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mr-trump-slipping-in-the-polls-warns-of-a-%E2%80%9Cstolen-election%E2%80%9D/ar-AAiTTv7?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Trump warns of a stolen election in this NY Times article. According to the article, the Trump campaign plans on having some of their people at certain voting precincts do their own exit polling. We're talking about possible voter intimidation here and a concerted effort to delegitimize a likely Clinton victory.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 13, 2016, 09:31:53 PM
Buddy, thanks for laying it out like that. But I'd be more comforted if I thought I could put more confidence in the polls. Brexit was famously missed by the polls, and some are saying that people didn't really suddenly change who they really are going to vote for after the recent revelations. They were just now embarrassed to admit that to strangers taking a poll.

Who knows?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 13, 2016, 09:33:57 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37650500 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37650500)

Trump says groping claims "absolutely false" and called them a conspiracy against the American people. He also claims he has evidence to refute these claims and will "release" them at the appropriate time.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 13, 2016, 09:41:08 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/media/new-york-times-donald-trump-lawsuit-threat/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/media/new-york-times-donald-trump-lawsuit-threat/index.html)

NY Times to Donald Trump: "We will not retract".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 13, 2016, 09:44:49 PM
Buddy, thanks for laying it out like that. But I'd be more comforted if I thought I could put more confidence in the polls. Brexit was famously missed by the polls, and some are saying that people didn't really suddenly change who they really are going to vote for after the recent revelations. They were just now embarrassed to admit that to strangers taking a poll.

Who knows?

Well...anything is possible.  All a poll does.....is give you one polls "snapshot" at a point in time.  Now, Nate Silver does a much better job....because he looks at ALL THE POLLS.....and he adjusts them for (1) sample size (2) the polls history of accuracy and bias (3) makes an adjustment for economic conditions, etc.  So it is not just "a poll".

So....come the morning of November 8th.....I will have a "degree" of comfort, depending on what the "gap" is on that day....and what Nate says the "likely" outcome will be.  If the popular vote gap is 7% or better (it's now about 6.7%).....I'll feel pretty good.  If it is over 10%.....I'll feel GREAT.  If it's less than 4%.....I probably won't get a lot of sleep.

THAT....is the best we can do on ANY FUTURE EVENT.

Clinton has a big advantage on her "ground game".....people on the ground that will be getting people out to vote on November 8th.  So don't underestimate that.

I also don't underestimate Donald Trump's ego between now and then.  It has been the biggest thing working against him the whole time.....and continues to work against him.

I will sleep a LOT better on the evening of November 8th if Clinton wins.  Then ALL OF US can get back to the important job of moving POLICY ON GLOBAL WARMING FORWARD.  But the election is an INCREDIBLY important part of that....   
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 13, 2016, 10:10:15 PM
This is from a Construction Trade Magazine's online edition, taken today. There is a REAL possibility of another Brexit-type outcome where the Polls are misaligned with the actual voting Public.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 13, 2016, 10:20:55 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37639738 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37639738)

This is in regards to some Trump supporters tweeting about repealing the 19th amendment. If women were not allowed to vote, Trump would win the election easily. The article contains a number of tweets, some from female supporters of Trump saying they would be willing to give up their right to vote, if it meant Trump would win.

Perhaps these women would have no trouble with Trump's right to "grope"?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 13, 2016, 10:22:08 PM
This is from a Construction Trade Magazine's online edition, taken today. There is a REAL possibility of another Brexit-type outcome where the Polls are misaligned with the actual voting Public.

I would EXPECT that outcome from a Construction Trade magazine.  That doesn't surprise me in the LEAST.

Some people might even say that is "cherry picking".......  Where have I heard that term before?



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 13, 2016, 10:40:04 PM
Here's a good article this afternoon from Nate Silver's site:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-teflon/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-teflon/)

And here again....is the "create your own electoral map" from Realclearpolitics.com  You can change around states depending on the latest polls....or the latest Nate Silver info.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 13, 2016, 11:01:12 PM

I would EXPECT that outcome from a Construction Trade magazine.  That doesn't surprise me in the LEAST.

I initially considered that, however, as I peek around, I'm seeing the same thing all over the place. 

here's another one... random google for online polls not associated with a news outlet:





Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 14, 2016, 12:24:51 AM
Attached is the latest presidential projection (made before the latest scandals about Trump) from fivethirtyeight issued Oct 13 2016:

Edit: I note that if Evan McMullin wins in Utah and the electoral college is deadlocked
(not likely but possible), then McMullin could be elected POTUS by the Republican House (see the linked article below by fivethirtyeight).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ritter on October 14, 2016, 12:35:57 AM
It's crazy. Clinton should be crushing Trump. I'm no Clinton fan, but her experience and qualifications so far outweigh Trump's it's simply no comparison. You want an actual pilot flying your airliner, not a limo passenger.

It's very telling just how angry the American public is with the status quo. They'll do just about anything to change it, including hanging us all.   :o
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 12:57:53 AM
It's crazy. Clinton should be crushing Trump.

It's the difference between a bad candidate (Clinton) and a HORRIBLE candidate (Trump).

Plus....the big thing this time around....is the Supreme Court.  THAT is why this is going to get REALLY ugly the next 3 weeks.

Whoever wins the election....will likely appoint AT LEAST 3 justices (if it is a 4 year term).....and more than that if it is an 8 year term.

So this is a very divided race along party lines........no matter WHO the candidate is.  And of course...like usual....the "moderate middle" will be the section of the electorate that chooses the president.

Trump is just a horrible human being.  Easily the worst candidate I have seen in my lifetime of voting.  Nobody even close to that horrible.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 01:04:46 AM
I initially considered that, however, as I peek around, I'm seeing the same thing all over the place. 

here's another one... random google for online polls not associated with a news outlet:

I'll stick with science.  Of course....if you want to bet me who is closer on the morning of November 8th...I would be interested.  Average the 2 polls you just pulled up...plus any other 3 ONLINE POLLS you want on the morning of November 8th.......vs Nate Silver's prediction for the popular vote breakdown. ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 14, 2016, 01:40:21 AM
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 03:05:01 AM
It's crazy. Clinton should be crushing Trump. I'm no Clinton fan, but her experience and qualifications so far outweigh Trump's it's simply no comparison. You want an actual pilot flying your airliner, not a limo passenger.

It's very telling just how angry the American public is with the status quo. They'll do just about anything to change it, including hanging us all.   :o


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/inside-donald-trump%E2%80%99s-total-meltdown/ar-AAiTHGK?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/inside-donald-trump%E2%80%99s-total-meltdown/ar-AAiTHGK?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

From Time magazine; "Inside Donald Trump's total meltdown". The article says more about the supporters of Donald Trump than about Donald Trump himself.

In my opinion if there is a "soul" left to the Republican party, it should completely repudiate their nominee. It's too late to remove Trump from the ballot, but the party should once and for all denounce their nominee in the strongest terms possible. I also believe that if Mike Pence is the principled man he purports to be, he should remove his name from the ticket. Pence staying on the ticket at this point compromises everything he's supposed to stand for.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 12:21:35 PM
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.

I don't put ANY confidence in any ONE poll.  Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is NOT a poll.  It is a COMPILATION of MANY of the polls (all the polls that meet "scientific criteria").

In addition....he makes adjustments to his numbers for the current state of some economic numbers.

And finally....he has a GREAT HISTORY OF BEING RIGHT.  So yes....I have confidence in his SYSTEM AND PROCESS......and HE'S BEEN RIGHT.

Now having said that....if you look at his "numbers".....they are stated in PROBABILITY.  Right now....Clinton has an 87% chance of winning.  So even he is very aware that there is a certain unpredictability.

But if Clinton has a 7% gap in popular vote....I will sleep fine.  Obviously the larger that is...the better I will sleep.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 01:00:51 PM
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.


But if Clinton has a 7% gap in popular vote....I will sleep fine.  Obviously the larger that is...the better I will sleep.

I'm hoping Buddy that Clinton's margin of victory (if she wins), will be significant enough to remove all doubt of a "rigged" election. Trump has to know he is unlikely to win, so he is employing tactics to delegitimize a Clinton victory. I would feel better with a 10% margin of victory and I'm sure most everyone on this forum feels the same. I would hate to see another close election like 2000 this year. That would be a nightmare!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 01:33:34 PM
One of the interesting....and scary....things about this election for me is this:

That so many people could vote for someone (Trump) who doesn't have a plan for the country (he continues to "make it up as he goes")....and someone who is SO NEGATIVE about the current state of things in the country.

One of the things that I have viewed in my life....is that if you repeat something enough times...people believe it is true, even if facts say otherwise.

For instance...Trump thinks the economy is a mess.  And he states it OVER AND OVER.  And his friends at FOX News....as long as Obama has been in office....have stated the SAME THING.

Well....as a financial guy, and a "numbers guy" I can tell you it ISN'T a mess...and I can point to numbers and FACTS.  I won't tell you it's GREAT...but it's middling....and the employment numbers are REALLY GOOD.  Right now...the Gross Domestic Product numbers (GDP) are "soft" AROUND THE WORLD.  And in the US....we're going through about a 6 month period of time of "softness".  So things aren't GREAT...but they aren't ANWHERE NEAR what Trump is talking about.

The unemployment rate in the US right now is 5%.  That used to be considered "full employment".  We just had the 84th STRAIGHT WEEK of jobless claims less than 300,000.  That is a record going back to 1970.

Furthermore.....that record of less than 300,000 jobless claims is even better than it looks.  Because the number of "covered jobs" in the early 1970's was only 66 million.  Now....the number of covered jobs is 136 million.  So the RATE of jobless claims....to the number of "covered jobs"....is LESS THAN HALF OF WHAT IT WAS IN 1970.

300,000/66 million = .45%  (just under 5/10th's of 1 percent)
300,000/137 million =  .22 %  (less than 2/10ths of 1 percent)

This last week the jobless claims was about 246,000.  On a job base of 137 million.....that is FAR BETTER than when the job base was 66 million.

Just as FOX News has....and continues to say..... that global warming is a hoax (they repeat it OVER and OVER and OVER:  Hannity, O'Reilly, Stuart Varney, Eric Bolling, etc..etc..etc..)....they also continue to say how bad the economy is.

Click on the link below...and watch the SHORT video clip of FOX describing the monthly Employment report (NOT the weekly jobless claims...but the monthly Jobs report).  In that report....the unemployment rate DROPPED to 5.0%....and 271,000 NET JOBS were added to the employment base....the largest number added for the year (note...these are NOT jobless claims....this is the number of "net jobs added" for the month).

FOX presents it as though it is "disappointing news"....when in fact it was GREAT NEWS.  That is the type of lies that FOX continues to perpetuate about the economy now.....as well as global warming....and anything related to the Obama administration.  But FOX does this ALL THE TIME.  Great news is bad news.....and bad news is horrible news.  If a Republican were President....I can assure you, the delivery would be MUCH DIFFERENT.

https://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/06/watch-fox-news-stumble-through-outstanding-octo/206671

And I believe it answers TO A LARGE PART.....why people are supporting Trump...and they are so loyal to him.  Because they are being spoon fed a continual stream of lies by FOX News.  Sean Hannity may as well be his press advisor....and almost everyone else on FOX is "all in" for Trump. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 01:52:49 PM
I've watched Bill O'Reilly interview people in the past. He's aggressive and interrupts frequently. When he interviews Trump, there is an air of deference, as if O'Reilly actually fears him. Trump on the other hand when being interviewed by O'Reilly, Hannity or others has this predatory look about him which some interviewers must find intimidating.

People like to have their core beliefs validated, not questioned. It takes a lot of courage to consider both sides of a disagreement equally. It's hard work to be a critical thinker, while staying in your favorite echo chamber is relatively easy.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 02:01:40 PM
I'm hoping Buddy that Clinton's margin of victory (if she wins), will be significant enough to remove all doubt of a "rigged" election. Trump has to know he is unlikely to win, so he is employing tactics to delegitimize a Clinton victory. I would feel better with a 10% margin of victory and I'm sure most everyone on this forum feels the same. I would hate to see another close election like 2000 this year. That would be a nightmare!

Agree totally.  Keep in mind....that the Supreme Court is divided 4 to 4 right now.  IF....it went to the Supreme Court...AND..the Supreme Court voted 4 to 4.....then THE LOWER COURTS DECISION (whatever that was) would STAND.  So the Supreme Court MAY NOT play a part in the current election SHOULD any issue go to them as it did in the election of 2000.

Trump...if he loses....will NOT be a good loser.  Whether he loses by 3% or 10%.....he's going to blame it on a rigged system, "the elite", the party establishment, etc.  He isn't going to come out and say:  "You know...I really shouldn't have called everyone crooked and schmucks during the primary".  Trump is ALL ABOUT TRUMP.....ALL THE TIME.  And he is, quite literally, a sociopathLITERALLY.  His campaign CEO is the head of Breitbart News....which is nothing more than a conspiracy site and an "alt right unhinged" smear blog.  So anything is possible.

The next 3.5 weeks will be interesting....and this election is certainly one for the record books.  Again....as I posted in my other reply this morning.....the more DANGEROUS thing about this election has been the EFFECT OF FOX NEWS.

It shows that....just like the people of Iran or any other country.....if you have a person who listens to CRAP PROPAGANDA EVERY DAY....many of them ARE GOING TO BELIEVE IT.  THAT....is why the press is SO IMPORTANT IN A DEMOCRACY.  And the press did SUCH A HORRIBLE JOB DURING THE PRIMARIES.

And that is why FOX.....OR ANY OTHER NEWS OUTLET THAT LIES.....needs to be called out EARLY....AND OFTEN.  And do it by showing FACTS.
 



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 02:15:07 PM
The 5 states I am keeping my eyes on this last 3.5 weeks:

1)  New Hampshire (Senator Ayotte has taken back her endorsement of Trump)
2)  Pennsylvania (should be safe....but watching it...I expect it to tighten but stay Clinton)
3)  North Carolina (Obama's will be there often in the next few weeks...and likely to deliver)
4)  Florida (Clinton has 3% lead...but it's close)
5)  Nevada (this is the "Western firewall".  Trump needs it...Clinton doesn't likely need it, but if she lost New Hampshire for some reason and Trump was able to take Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Iowa.....Nevada would be her fallback state to save her.

If New Hampshire and North Carolina were to go Clinton....it's "lights out" for Trump....and I sleep well.

Better get your hip waders on.....because there is going to be a lot of mud slung over the next few weeks.

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 03:31:23 PM
I've watched Bill O'Reilly interview people in the past. He's aggressive and interrupts frequently. When he interviews Trump, there is an air of deference, as if O'Reilly actually fears him. Trump on the other hand when being interviewed by O'Reilly, Hannity or others has this predatory look about him which some interviewers must find intimidating.

O'Reilly is like Chris Matthews of MSNBC.  They try to "win the debate" by talking FORCEFULLY and talking OVER PEOPLE.  I hate BOTH OF THEM.  Matthews has more "ethics" than O'Reilly....but so does a salamander.  I won't listen to either one of them anymore....they don't interview people...they talk TO their guests.

People like to have their core beliefs validated, not questioned.

EVERYONE has a "bias" towards what they FIRST believe.  And that can be dangerous.  A LARGE PART of why I will ALWAYS register as an Independent....is that it doesn't give me that "bias".  I believe I should ALWAYS BE LOOKING FOR THE TRUTH.....NO MATTER HOW PAINFUL AND NO MATTER WHAT MY CURRENT POSITION IS.  I try to REMOVE MY BIAS or at least RECOGNIZE IT when I make decisions.

You see people in business ALL THE TIME get "cemented" in their beliefs...and then cut themselves off from looking at FACTS that contradicts their position.  BAD THING TO DO.

If you find yourself on the "wrong side of the facts"....admit you were wrong, look at WHY you were wrong, and then move on.  At least...that's what I TRY to do.

It takes a lot of courage to consider both sides of a disagreement equally. It's hard work to be a critical thinker, while staying in your favorite echo chamber is relatively easy.

I think THAT is at the "core" of where mankind is EVENTUALLY GOING.  We only do 2 things during our waking hours:  (1) make decisions, and (2) execute on decisions.  The better decisions we make...the better off we are.  It is DEFINITELY AN UNDER-RATED TRAIT.

I don't think it takes "courage" to be a "critical thinker".....I think it takes a RECOGNITION OF LOGIC.....and an ego that is NOT out of control.    IE:  I want to do the best thing.....therefore if I think through things in a CRITICAL MANNER (even if it goes AGAINST what I currently believe)....I will arrive at BETTER DECISIONS.....therefore I should look at things critically.

For mankind to MAKE BETTER DECISIONS....AND BECOME WISER[/b]....it REQUIRES US to become "critical thinkers." I actually DO think that mankind WILL SLOWLY go in that direction (ie..a "Dr. Spock like rational thinking" if you will) in future centuries.  But it will be a SLOW PROCESS.  AND.....we have to set up "parameters" so that the "incentives and disincentives" nudge us in that direction.  We're a LONG WAY FROM GETTING THERE....we're just starting....

In other words....if we have incentives set up to PROMOTE good decisions.....and dis-incentives set up to PENALIZE LYING or BAD DECISIONS.....then good decisions will win out.

Sorry for BLABBING....but it is something that I have seen and I continue to "study" in business.  I have had the good fortune of working for a boss once that was a CRITICAL THINKER.  And he wasn't afraid to admit he was wrong.  It was an INCREDIBLE opportunity to work with someone like that....and I try to emulate that now.




Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 14, 2016, 03:35:42 PM
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.

I don't put ANY confidence in any ONE poll.  Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is NOT a poll.  It is a COMPILATION of MANY of the polls (all the polls that meet "scientific criteria").

Applying scientific method to highly subjective polls doesn't really seem much like science to me.  Isn't Nate Silver the guy that said Trump had a 1-in-20 chance of securing the RNC nomination?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 03:43:23 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/news/economy/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-economic-debate/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/news/economy/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-economic-debate/index.html)

"Surprise! A presidential debate on the issues". Trump's and Clinton's advisors debated about the U.S. economy on Thursday.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 03:48:29 PM
Applying scientific method to highly subjective polls doesn't really seem much like science to me.  Isn't Nate Silver the guy that said Trump had a 1-in-20 chance of securing the RNC nomination?

Nate is not a "fortune teller".  He is a "statistical nerd" who grinds up data....and then tells you what the chances are of something happening in the future.....GIVEN THE INFORMATION HE HAS NOW.  When the primaries STARTED....THAT IS WHAT THE CHANCES WERE FOR TRUMP according to the information THEN.  As we go through time...we get more and more information....and that changes.

That is why I said....I would take Nate's numbers ON THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 8TH.....AGAINST YOUR NUMBERS FROM ON LINE POLLING.


He has an EXCELLENT RECORD.  But his excellent record is NOT from the beginning of the process.  It is RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION.

I'm still up for that bet..... ;)

The polls (including the COMPILATION of the polls like Nate) are a snapshot of:  "If the election were held today."   So I won't feel comfortable unless the polls on the morning of November 8th BEFORE THE VOTES ARE COUNTED.....show Clinton with a 7% or so gap or more in POPULAR VOTE.  If Nates numbers on that morning are that Trump is likely to win.....I would bet on Trump.  If Nates numbers say that Clinton is likely to win....I would bet on Clinton.

Polls are NOT absolutes.  Only when the election is done....is it an absolute...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 04:10:20 PM

I don't think it takes "courage" to be a "critical thinker".....I think it takes a RECOGNITION OF LOGIC.....and an ego that is NOT out of control.    IE:  I want to do the best thing.....therefore if I think through things in a CRITICAL MANNER (even if it goes AGAINST what I currently believe)....I will arrive at BETTER DECISIONS.....therefore I should look at things critically.


You're right about the logic. The courage comes after, because not following the herd is hard to do. By the way, that boss of yours is a rare breed, I've had one or two good ones in my forty plus years of working.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 04:14:38 PM
[quote


I'm still up for that bet..... ;)



Chasing Ice: I would pass on that bet, I'm reasonably sure you'll lose.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 04:26:31 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/media/breitbart-stephen-bannon-donald-trump/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/media/breitbart-stephen-bannon-donald-trump/index.html)

"Donald Trump and the Breitbart election". Dylan Byers is saying in the article that Trump is espousing a worldview held by Stephen Bannon, Trump's campaign chairman.

Additionally, Mike Pence said this morning on the Today show that evidence disproving sexual harassment by Trump will be made available in a matter of hours.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on October 14, 2016, 05:25:41 PM
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.

I don't put ANY confidence in any ONE poll.  Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is NOT a poll.  It is a COMPILATION of MANY of the polls (all the polls that meet "scientific criteria").

In addition....he makes adjustments to his numbers for the current state of some economic numbers.

And finally....he has a GREAT HISTORY OF BEING RIGHT.  So yes....I have confidence in his SYSTEM AND PROCESS......and HE'S BEEN RIGHT.

Now having said that....if you look at his "numbers".....they are stated in PROBABILITY.  Right now....Clinton has an 87% chance of winning.  So even he is very aware that there is a certain unpredictability.

But if Clinton has a 7% gap in popular vote....I will sleep fine.  Obviously the larger that is...the better I will sleep.

Ahem. Nate Silver has been underestimating Trump every step of the way regarding the Republican nomination. He's been wrong for months on end, and his odds and numbers and secret recipes were consistently lower than the actual polls behind them. I doubt he understands Trump so well.
There's a right wing economic blogger that I read regularly, who has been pointing out Nate Silver's biases about Trump since at least the beginning of they year.
Just as an example, Silver wrote in a January article:
But if Trump’s polls don’t quite mean what the headlines imply, what do they mean exactly? And even if you take them with a dose of skepticism, could he win the nomination anyway? (Spoiler alert: Yes, although I continue to think Trump’s chances are lower than where betting markets put them.
My heuristic throughout the campaign has been to assume that Trump’s chances are about half of what betting markets say they are. Betting markets currently put Trump’s chances at about 25 percent, so I think they’re about half that — 12 or 13 percent.
At that time this blogger estimated Trump's chances at 50 percent.

On the good news side, the same blogger (who also continually claimed Brexit had a higher chance than the media gave it, based on the same correct reading of social anger) has recently claimed the election is over, and that Trump finished himself. Hopefully, he's right again.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 06:07:47 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gingrich-little-trump-is-frankly-pathetic/ar-AAiTSN0 (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gingrich-little-trump-is-frankly-pathetic/ar-AAiTSN0)

Gingrich in referring to Trump's attack on Speaker Paul Ryan.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 14, 2016, 06:23:01 PM

That is why I said....I would take Nate's numbers ON THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 8TH.....AGAINST YOUR NUMBERS FROM ON LINE POLLING.


He has an EXCELLENT RECORD.  But his excellent record is NOT from the beginning of the process.  It is RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION.

I'm still up for that bet..... ;)


Sorry, you're trying to tie me to a poll when I've already stated that I don't believe polls are accurately reflecting the real voting public. 

If you're that confident in Nate's predictions (yet to be seen), then how about you take Nate's numbers, and I'll take "he's off by at least 3 points". 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 14, 2016, 06:24:52 PM


Chasing Ice: I would pass on that bet, I'm reasonably sure you'll lose.

I appreciate your thoughtful advice.   :D
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 06:32:34 PM
Ahem. Nate Silver has been underestimating Trump every step of the way regarding the Republican nomination. He's been wrong for months on end, and his odds and numbers and secret recipes were consistently lower than the actual polls behind them. I doubt he understands Trump so well.
There's a right wing economic blogger that I read regularly, who has been pointing out Nate Silver's biases about Trump since at least the beginning of they year.

I guess I haven't been very clear.....so let me clear my throat....Ahem.  Ok..now I'm ready ;):

Nate Silver's "models" will ALWAYS be "behind the curve" over time.  ALWAYS.  They are a compilation of polls from any decent pollster over time.  His "reading" at any point in time....will contain BOTH up to date polls....and some polls that are more "out of date".  Some pollsters do polling often....others may not do polling for MONTHS.  Each INDIVIDUAL POLL....is anywhere from 3 days to 7 days BEHIND WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING (it takes 2- 3 days to do the poll...and then another couple days until it comes out).  So there is a LAG IN TIME.  And when a specific pollster DOESN'T PRODUCE ANOTHER POLL FOR 1 MONTH OR TWO MONTHS....then there is going to be some "old information" in Nate's numbers.  He "accounts" for that by giving "more weight" to the more current pollsters....but there is still some lag...so I EXPECT THAT LAG. 

So hearing that Nate's numbers are "always behind"....doesn't surprise me.  I EXPECT THAT BECAUSE I KNOW HIS PROCESS.  As time goes on.....especially this last month of the election, the polling will be MUCH MORE CURRENT....and occur MUCH MORE OFTEN FOR EACH POLLSTER.  So as we approach "D Day"....I feel "very good" about Nate's accuracy.  Of course....knowing that he has been INCREDIBLY ACCURATE OVER THE LAST 12 YEARS also gives me confidence in his numbers.  There's something about him BEING RIGHT that is comforting.

This is REALLY EASY FOR ME....because I have HISTORY AND FACTS ON MY SIDE (actually...on Nate's side...I just read his numbers).  Some of you apparently think that Nate sits in his office and looks at tarot cards to tell him what he "thinks" is going to happen.  HE DOESN'T DO THAT.  He is just a statistical nerd who compiles polls and combines it with the most current economic facts.  That's all.  It is really very "simple" in concept.

The reason that Nate's polls gave Trump almost no chance of winning the Republican primary....is that the POLLS THAT WERE TAKEN EARLY IN THE PROCESS SHOWED THAT.  It had NOTHING to do with any "bias".  This isn't a "FOX NEWS or MSNBC".  It is "statistical science"...PERIOD.

You can agree with that or not.  THAT is up to you.. 

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 06:47:44 PM
Sorry, you're trying to tie me to a poll when I've already stated that I don't believe polls are accurately reflecting the real voting public. 

If you're that confident in Nate's predictions (yet to be seen), then how about you take Nate's numbers, and I'll take "he's off by at least 3 points".


I'm trying to "tie you" to the fact you said that on line polls you looked at showed Trump way ahead.  And apparently...you believed those more than you believed Nate Silver's numbers.  THAT IS WHAT I WAS TIEING YOU TO.

I would suggest that you....or anyone else....take a closer look at Nates numbers...and read on how they are produced.  Even Nate understands THOROUGHLY that there is a "degree of uncertainty"......BECAUSE IT IS A FUTURE EVENT.  All he does...is go by the best polling info he can get his hands on....and then makes an adjustment for the most current economic figures.   If the polling information HE GETS IS BAD.....THAT "error" will be in HIS NUMBERS TOO.

I think we've pretty much beat this poor horse to death.....

When I think of Nate.....I think of Bryon Nelson.  If you are a golf history nut like I am, you will know that he won 11 TOURNAMENTS IN A ROW.  ELVEN.  And a journalist asked him one time during the streak:  "Byron....don't you think you're getting a little lucky?"

To that Byron said:  "You know.....its a funny thing.  The harder I work....the luckier I get."

Nate works pretty hard at producing a good product.  I'll keep my money with Nate.... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 06:53:20 PM
At that time this blogger estimated Trump's chances at 50 percent.

On the good news side, the same blogger (who also continually claimed Brexit had a higher chance than the media gave it, based on the same correct reading of social anger) has recently claimed the election is over, and that Trump finished himself. Hopefully, he's right again.

Maybe you could send along a LINK to the blogger/site.  I'm ALWAYS interested in looking at the "right side of the street".......or....the "left side of the street".   I'm pretty "middle of the road...show me the facts" kind of guy.  But would love to know the website you looked at.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 14, 2016, 06:59:06 PM


The reason that Nate's polls gave Trump almost no chance of winning the Republican primary....is that the POLLS THAT WERE TAKEN EARLY IN THE PROCESS SHOWED THAT.  It had NOTHING to do with any "bias".  This isn't a "FOX NEWS or MSNBC".  It is "statistical science"...PERIOD.

You can agree with that or not.  THAT is up to you..

It appears you and I are saying the same thing;

 Applying statistical analysis to bunk polls will produce bunk. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 07:01:17 PM
If anyone is interested in seeing someone who is even MORE UNQUALIFIED THAN DONALD TRUMP.....I have a present for you:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-donald-trump-accusations_us_5800dc49e4b0162c043b6063?section=& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-donald-trump-accusations_us_5800dc49e4b0162c043b6063?section=&)

I don't have a "high bar" for people who run for president.  One of my criteria...is that they are more intelligent than I am (Trust me....that is NOT a high bar AT ALL).  So...Dr. Carson certainly EXCEEDS that criteria by a MILE.  But just because you have "book smarts"....does NOT make you the wisest guy on the planet.  That is one of the worst interviews I've seen.  I always knew he wasn't even CLOSE to being "presidential material"....but that interview now disqualifies him for the Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska (population about 7,000).....and Sarah Palin was mayor.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 07:06:38 PM
It appears you and I are saying the same thing;

Applying statistical analysis to bunk polls will produce bunk. 

I don't think we are saying the same thing.

I'm saying:  Nate produces a good product.....using the best polls he can get his hands on, plus some economic data.  As the date for the election draws CLOSER....that data will become better and better.  And by Nate "adjusting polls that HAVE HAD A BIAS HISTORICALLY" (like the Rasmussen Poll)......then he has been EXTREMELY GOOD.....when it is CLOSE TO ELECTION TIME....at picking WHO WILL ACTUALLY WIN.

That...is what I am saying.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 14, 2016, 07:47:13 PM
And by Nate "adjusting polls that HAVE HAD A BIAS HISTORICALLY" (like the Rasmussen Poll)......then he has been EXTREMELY GOOD.....when it is CLOSE TO ELECTION TIME....at picking WHO WILL ACTUALLY WIN.

That...is what I am saying.

except for the RNC Nomination... where Nate whiffed mightily... because the polls were wrong.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 08:59:58 PM
More women coming out of the woodwork.  When is Congressman Ryan going to say ENOUGH IS ENOUGH?

We'll have 3.5 weeks more of this.....at some point.....the "Cosby syndrome" is going to take over.  In other words....there will be TOO MANY TO IGNORE.....even for Congressman Ryan.

Trump is a sexual predator.  Trumps enablers are Sean Hannity......Bill O'Reilly.....and FOX News in general.

At FOX News....sexual predators like Bill O'Reilly and Roger Ailes were PROTECTED.  No wonder that Trump is friends with O'Reily and Ailes.

Anyone with a SHRED of dignity would speak out AGAINST Trump.  But....not everyone has dignity.  And that apparently applies to Congressman Ryan.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/summer-zervos-donald-trump_us_58012c8de4b0162c043bec7d?section=& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/summer-zervos-donald-trump_us_58012c8de4b0162c043bec7d?section=&)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 09:04:03 PM


Chasing Ice: I would pass on that bet, I'm reasonably sure you'll lose.

I appreciate your thoughtful advice.   :D

Advice is free, so I'll give you one more piece of advice; You've made your point, and Buddy has made his. What is to be gained by further arguing over this? Nothing that I can see, so let it go. If you want to keep arguing, feel free to argue with yourself.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 14, 2016, 09:18:05 PM
If anyone is interested in seeing someone who is even MORE UNQUALIFIED THAN DONALD TRUMP.....I have a present for you:

[url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-donald-trump-accusations_us_5800dc49e4b0162c043b6063?section=&[/url] ([url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-donald-trump-accusations_us_5800dc49e4b0162c043b6063?section=&[/url])



Just saw the video clip, unbelievable! Joe Scarborough was great.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 14, 2016, 09:36:46 PM

Advice is free, so I'll give you one more piece of advice; You've made your point, and Buddy has made his. What is to be gained by further arguing over this? Nothing that I can see, so let it go. If you want to keep arguing, feel free to argue with yourself.

I will... thanks again budmantis.

When POLLS are conducted by biased media sources, you get biased polls.  When You base your entire statistical analysis off biased data, you get biased results.  This is EXACTLY WHY NATE SILVER WAS WRONG ON BREXIT

Let me know if you're comfortable betting on Nate being within 3 points of the "public vote", Buddy.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 14, 2016, 10:29:28 PM
Here's a good article from Nate Silver....and it discusses the difference between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  It goes into a FEW of things his team looks at.  It will likely give some of you a better sense of what he/they look at....and how they arrive at their conclusion.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-watch-new-hampshire-for-signs-of-a-trump-comeback/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-watch-new-hampshire-for-signs-of-a-trump-comeback/)

It also shows a "Trump 269" map....and you can see why North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada are important states for Clinton.  But she LIKELY only needs ONE of those.





Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on October 15, 2016, 12:08:53 AM
The reason that Nate's polls gave Trump almost no chance of winning the Republican primary....is that the POLLS THAT WERE TAKEN EARLY IN THE PROCESS SHOWED THAT.  It had NOTHING to do with any "bias".  This isn't a "FOX NEWS or MSNBC".  It is "statistical science"...PERIOD.

You can agree with that or not.  THAT is up to you..

I do disagree, having followed his process over the last year. I believe his statistical method is based on models that do not accurately represent the new social situation.
Anyway, let's just hope Trump stays down until Nov 8.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on October 15, 2016, 01:19:09 AM
How about this for another random (biased) sample.

Facebook friends who like POTUS Candidates:

Trump = 58
Johnson = 36
Clinton = 26
Stein = 4

Does that reflect how people will actually vote?  Of course not.  Its certainly different than what you hear reported though.  Different enough to ponder anyways.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 15, 2016, 01:22:16 AM

I do disagree, having followed his process over the last year. I believe his statistical method is based on models that do not accurately represent the new social situation.
Anyway, let's just hope Trump stays down until Nov 8
.

And reasonable people CAN and DO arrive at different conclusions.

By the way....if you could post the LINK for the website you mentioned that you looked at...I would still like to see it....so I can go look at that site myself.  Thanks ahead of time..

Buddy




Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 02:30:11 AM
[url]http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/media/breitbart-stephen-bannon-donald-trump/index.html[/url] ([url]http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/media/breitbart-stephen-bannon-donald-trump/index.html[/url])


Additionally, Mike Pence said this morning on the Today show that evidence disproving sexual harassment by Trump will be made available in a matter of hours.


I don't know about anyone else but I'm still waiting for the evidence Mike Pence promised us proving Trump's innocence in these harassment allegations.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 15, 2016, 02:35:33 AM
I don't know about anyone else but I'm still waiting for the evidence Mike Pence promised us proving Trump's innocence in these harassment allegations.

I think that will be presented when Donald Trump presents the evidence HE PROMISED about Obama not being born in Hawaii.... ;)

Which will likely be about the same time he shows the tax returns Trump has promised..... ;)

Saturday Night Live should be good this week.  But if I'm SNL.....I would ask Trump to "get the good stuff out early in the week" so they have time to prepare.  These Friday night leaks are killing them....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 02:46:39 AM
I don't know about anyone else but I'm still waiting for the evidence Mike Pence promised us proving Trump's innocence in these harassment allegations.

I think that will be presented when Donald Trump presents the evidence HE PROMISED about Obama not being born in Hawaii.... ;)

Which will likely be about the same time he shows the tax returns Trump has promised..... ;)

Saturday Night Live should be good this week.  But if I'm SNL.....I would ask Trump to "get the good stuff out early in the week" so they have time to prepare.  These Friday night leaks are killing them....

Yeah, SNL should be great. I like politics but I'll be glad when this election is over. So let's map out a timeline for Trump's so called evidence, his birther claims and his tax returns. The answer is NEVER, NEVER and NEVER.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 03:00:50 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/donald-trump-sexual-assault-allegations/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/donald-trump-sexual-assault-allegations/index.html)

Trump on sex assault allegations: "I am a victim".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 15, 2016, 05:20:25 AM
Buddy wrote: "The 5 states I am keeping my eyes..."

Those are good ones. I'm being optimistic about them, so I am also watching Arizona, which is now close in the poles, and where McCain finally publicly renounced Trump.

Also Utah, where Mormon & Utahan independent McMullin has made the race there...interesting...and where Trump lost by a lot to Cruz in the primaries.

Even Georgia, Texas and Alaska may end up being interesting to watch, but that's maybe beeing too optimistic at this point.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 07:14:10 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-defended-leeds_us_58014fe2e4b06e047594fa91?section=& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-defended-leeds_us_58014fe2e4b06e047594fa91?section=&)

"Donald Trump finds worst possible character witness to dispute assault allegations". Is this the evidence to refute all the sexual allegations, as promised by Mike Pence?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 08:59:03 AM
http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/14/hacked-emails-raise-possibility-of-clinton-foundation-ethics-bre/21583163/ (http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/14/hacked-emails-raise-possibility-of-clinton-foundation-ethics-bre/21583163/)

"Hacked emails raise possibility of Clinton Foundation ethics breach". Trump has been our "muse" for the most part. Now WikiLeaks is haunting the Clinton campaign with hacked emails. This brings up a very important point; If information is made known about Clinton that is so damaging to her already suspect credibility, who the hell are we going to vote for? This is precisely the reason why I wish the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton.

I'm sure Buddy has a lot to add to this conversation and I look forward to his comments, but I would like to hear more opinions, even from folk outside of the U.S.. Depending on what ends up getting leaked, this could become a serious moral conundrum for any voter of good conscience.

(my apologies if I'm sounding a bit melodramatic).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on October 15, 2016, 10:00:01 AM
Maybe we should have an equally unscientific & unrepresentative poll of everyone on the forum for this issue - and see if Trump has a greater global appeal than might be expected too !   

After all - whoever is elected will have a serious effect on events on the global stage.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 15, 2016, 01:45:44 PM
Oren:

Who is the "right wing economic blogger" you referenced below?  Do you have a link you could provide.  Thanks....

There's a right wing economic blogger that I read regularly, who has been pointing out Nate Silver's biases about Trump since at least the beginning of they year
.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 02:00:35 PM
Maybe we should have an equally unscientific & unrepresentative poll of everyone on the forum for this issue - and see if Trump has a greater global appeal than might be expected too !   

After all - whoever is elected will have a serious effect on events on the global stage.

I think that's a good idea Charles. So far with this poll there have been a total of 34 votes. I'd like to get the opinion of a lot more people on the forum no matter where they're from. Although the actual choices we have to vote for are limited, I'd like to know who Forum members think would make a good POTUS.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 15, 2016, 02:03:24 PM
The big question now becomes.....what time slot is Trump going to have on FOX?  Will it be right before Sean Hannity...or will Sean Hannity be the "build up" to Trumps show right after his?

Maybe FOX will do an "Trump cookie" with Hannity followed by Trump followed by O'Reilly.

That would be a good lineup...because you have two sexual predators in the last two segments.

All the female producers must be thinking:  OMG....not ANOTHER ONE :o

Ailes....O'Reilly....and now Trump.  YIKKKEEEESSS.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 15, 2016, 02:05:41 PM
I'd like to know who Forum members think would make a good POTUS.

Unfortunately....we don't have that choice this time around. :-\
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 15, 2016, 02:19:40 PM
Rumor has it that FOX will look to be buying the cable series "Lockup" from MSNBC so they can highlight its future inhabitant:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/13/chris-christie-facing-10-years-prison-summons-issued-misconduct-office.html (http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/13/chris-christie-facing-10-years-prison-summons-issued-misconduct-office.html)

Just think.....Donald Trump almost picked Chris Christie as his VP running mate.

In this election cycle.....I think you can begin to see JUST HOW OVERSIZED some of the ego's are.  Trump and Christie are at the top of the heap.  They KNEW what was in their background....but they STILL thought they could con their way through it.  AMAZING.

I hope Christie is thrown in jail WITH the Democratic governor of New York....Cuomo.  Maybe the US electorate will begin to see just how much the system needs to be overhauled.  And this goes for the Democrats as well.  Trump was the ABSOLUTE WRONG solution on the Republican side.....for the problem.  But the problem still remains....on both sides of the aisle.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 02:27:02 PM
http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/15/donald-trump-nuclear-launch-officers-weapons/21582882/# (http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/15/donald-trump-nuclear-launch-officers-weapons/21582882/#)

"He should not have his finger on the button". Former nuclear launch officers warn that Trump cant be trusted with nuclear weapons.

We already know he cant be trusted with his hands!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 15, 2016, 02:35:46 PM
If you haven't yet read the letter from the attorney of the New York Times.....in his answer to Donald Trump's attorney....it is WELL WORTH READING.  It is likely the best "take down" I have seen:

https://twitter.com/MarkHarrisNYC/status/786620581261127680

The debate on Wednesday night is likely to be a WWF format...with barbed wire around the ring....a "death match" of sorts.  I expect Clinton to try to stay away from the fray as much as possible, without appearing weak.  Let Donald continue to run off the cliff and into the valley of doom.  Get your popcorn ready.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 02:48:12 PM
Get your popcorn ready.....


With extra butter!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstories/op-ed-why-those-polls-that-say-clinton%E2%80%99s-ahead-could-be-wrong/ar-AAiUHml?ocid=spartanntp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstories/op-ed-why-those-polls-that-say-clinton%E2%80%99s-ahead-could-be-wrong/ar-AAiUHml?ocid=spartanntp)

"Polls showing Clinton ahead could be wrong".

Considering the exchange between Chasing Ice, Buddy and Oren about the reliability of polls yesterday, I thought this op-ed from CNBC would provide some food for thought.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 15, 2016, 03:31:31 PM
Sure, *in general*, poll results that swing suddenly in one direction can swing again in the opposite direction--that seems to be the gist of the msn piece.

I really don't think that's what's going on.  I think many pundits (mostly males) underestimate the toxic impact of credible allegations of sexual assault on the part of a candidate.  Given that Trump has boasted on tape of his ability to grab women's crotches and face no repercussions, the steady drumbeat of allegations of his doing exactly this seem likely to continue.

Many of Trump's (mostly male) supporters may shrug off such allegations under the thought "boys will be boys," or even "that's the kind of badass we need in the White House, for once." But female voters, by and large, are not going to be forgiving of such a figure. 

Has anyone seen any product endorsements lately from Bill Cosby?  No, he's toxic.  Now so is Trump.  With Trump, it's only just started.  It's a long slide down from here, first losing the election, then personal and financial ruin.  His whole crumbling financial operation will be less than worthless in short order.  He'll be lucky to end up as an Uber driver, if they'll have him.  He's more likely to end up in prison.

It was crumbling before he launched his political bid.  I suspect his effort was a calculated attempt to shift from failing real estate "mogul" to celebrity/pundit income.  Only late in the game, I think, did he himself think he could actually attain the White House. 

He didn't realize that a Presidential campaign means having one's personal life put under an intense microscope, and only fairly squeaky-clean figures can survive that.  He also didn't realize that an aging, revolting guy can't be a Kardashian.

One aspect of the "polls can be misleading" theme may also play against him.  Single women vote predominantly Democrat.  The women who most tend to vote Republican are those married to conservative men.  Such women may "toe the line" with their husbands in day-to-day matters, and when answering calls from pollsters,  but when the curtain closes on them, alone in a voting booth, I think many will refuse to vote for a cur.

Prediction: 10% popular vote lead for Clinton on election day, with an electoral landslide in the Electoral College.  Even odds on Dems taking the Senate.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 03:41:12 PM
Prediction: 10% popular vote lead for Clinton on election day, with an electoral landslide in the Electoral College.  Even odds on Dems taking the Senate.

Enjoyed your comments Steve and I hope your prediction becomes fact on election day.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 15, 2016, 05:50:04 PM
For those of you wondering about polls, etc.  Here's an article from Mish Shedlock (a conservative economist/investor/blogger).

A word of caution....Mish has been pretty much a "perma bear" regarding the economy AND the stock market....at least through 2012.  Not sure what he has said in the last few years....but just a word of warning.

The following link is his take on "Nate Silver" in the EARLY GOINGS of the Republican primaries (or even BEFORE the primaries) when everyone and their dog wasn't giving Donald much of a chance (and all the polls didn't give him a chance as well....which certainly meant that Nate Silver also didn't give him a chance).

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/01/nate-silver-off-mark-on-donald-trump.html (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/01/nate-silver-off-mark-on-donald-trump.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 09:47:55 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/15/opinions/putin-clinton-hate-affair-ghitis/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/15/opinions/putin-clinton-hate-affair-ghitis/index.html)

"Why Putin fears a Clinton presidency". By Frida Ghitis

"Putin objects to Clinton because he thinks she will stand in the way of his expansionist foreign policy objectives".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 15, 2016, 10:12:04 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-look-at-hacked-emails-from-clintons-campaign-chairman/ar-AAiZKTd?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-look-at-hacked-emails-from-clintons-campaign-chairman/ar-AAiZKTd?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp)

"Hacked emails released in daily dispatches this week by the WikiLeaks group exposed the inner workings of Hillary Clinton's campaign leading up to her 2015 announcement that she would seek the presidency, and through this year's primary".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on October 15, 2016, 11:28:07 PM
For those of you wondering about polls, etc.  Here's an article from Mish Shedlock (a conservative economist/investor/blogger).

A word of caution....Mish has been pretty much a "perma bear" regarding the economy AND the stock market....at least through 2012.  Not sure what he has said in the last few years....but just a word of warning.

The following link is his take on "Nate Silver" in the EARLY GOINGS of the Republican primaries (or even BEFORE the primaries) when everyone and their dog wasn't giving Donald much of a chance (and all the polls didn't give him a chance as well....which certainly meant that Nate Silver also didn't give him a chance).

[url]http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/01/nate-silver-off-mark-on-donald-trump.html[/url] ([url]http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/01/nate-silver-off-mark-on-donald-trump.html[/url])


Yes Buddy, Mish is the one I referenced, he ran several articles on the same subject throughout the campaign (there were a couple interesting ones around the April timeframe). His economic and social stuff is pretty good although negatively biased as you say, he forecast the housing crash beforehand including calling the top in 2007. However I really didn't want to start linking him here as he is a climate denier, which is very sad considering he can read long term trends very well in economic matters. And his political views are also mostly terrible, although he gives good arguments for them. So when reading him you need to separate the chaff from the wheat.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 16, 2016, 12:31:25 AM
Yes Buddy, Mish is the one I referenced, he ran several articles on the same subject throughout the campaign (there were a couple interesting ones around the April timeframe). His economic and social stuff is pretty good although negatively biased as you say, he forecast the housing crash beforehand including calling the top in 2007. However I really didn't want to start linking him here as he is a climate denier, which is very sad considering he can read long term trends very well in economic matters. And his political views are also mostly terrible, although he gives good arguments for them. So when reading him you need to separate the chaff from the wheat.

Mish has always reminded me a lot of David Stockman (father of "Trickle Down Economics") who was the budget director under Ronald Reagan....and has lived to regret it.  David is also a "perma bear" and has been calling for a "significant top" in the market for over a year now (sooner or later he's bound to be right ;).

They are BOTH "perma bears"....and (like many economists) made some horrible "calls" along the way.  In the case of David Stockman......he initiated some horrible policy under Reagan.

I had already seen some of Mish's articles RE Nate Silver.  I think it is HEALTHY to look at VARIOUS ANGLES of something....whether it be global warming, economics, or whatever.  I even force myself to watch a small dose of FOX Noise during the week.....although it is a SMALL DOSE.  It's pretty entertaining when you see what they are really doing.

I won't go off on a LONG tangent here.....but there is a lot of "bias" to go around.....both RIGHT and LEFT.  Which is why I always encourage EVERYONE to register as an Independent (if you are in an "open primary" state).  Then....all you/we have to do.....is look for the truth.  It makes life much easier....

As far as Mish goes....everything is in writing (the good...the bad...and the ugly).

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 16, 2016, 05:44:37 AM
For what it's worth, the latest polls show a statistical tie now in Texas and Indiana...pretty amazing, when you think about it.

Things are also getting close in Alaska, Missouri, and Georgia.

I'm vacillating between thinking it's going to be a huge Clinton landslide and thinking the polls are all wrong, and Trump will pull off an upset win (possibly with help from his minions bullying people at polling places).

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 16, 2016, 06:14:41 AM
For what it's worth, the latest polls show a statistical tie now in Texas and Indiana...pretty amazing, when you think about it.

Things are also getting close in Alaska, Missouri, and Georgia.

I'm vacillating between thinking it's going to be a huge Clinton landslide and thinking the polls are all wrong, and Trump will pull off an upset win (possibly with help from his minions bullying people at polling places).

You would think Trump has done more than enough damage to his own campaign to set the stage for a landslide, which I hope will happen. With all the b.s. he's spewing, I don't want there to be any doubt whatsoever that he lost.

My own thinking Wili is similar to yours; a pendulum swing from a Clinton landslide to a Trump upset win. Any other election year than this one, it would be a landslide. If there are Trump partisans at some polling sites, I'm wondering whether they will be allowed to intimidate voters. I have a feeling they will be put in their place, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are reports of civil disobedience. Certainly makes a good case for early voting.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 16, 2016, 01:39:21 PM
For what it's worth, the latest polls show a statistical tie now in Texas and Indiana...pretty amazing, when you think about it.

I expect things to "tighten up" some over the coming 3 weeks.  How much....I have no idea.  Three weeks in politics is an ETERNITY.

I will STILL be watching (1) New Hampshire (2) Pennsylvania (3) North Carolina (4) Florida and (5) Nevada.  If I'm watching Nevada in the early morning hours of November 9th....then the race will have closed a LOT.  I DON'T expect that......but that is a possibility.  I won't be watching Ohio...because I think Trump will take Ohio.

It's only been 3 weeks since the polls started to "widen out".  They can go back....just as easily. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 16, 2016, 03:28:53 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/10/15/david_brooks_warns_republicans_this_is_like_supporting_joe_mccarthy_and_you_will_not_be_fine_after_election.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/10/15/david_brooks_warns_republicans_this_is_like_supporting_joe_mccarthy_and_you_will_not_be_fine_after_election.html)

From Friday's broadcast of PBS News Hour with Mark Shields and Judy Woodruff.

Brooks also said the WikiLeaks dump of John Podesta's private emails were "boring".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 16, 2016, 05:13:17 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mike-pence-russia-hack_us_5803842fe4b06e0475955319?section=& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mike-pence-russia-hack_us_5803842fe4b06e0475955319?section=&)

"Mike Pence admits evidence points to Russia interfering with U.S. elections".

"It's a break from what his running mate, Donald Trump, has been saying.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 16, 2016, 05:27:49 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/david-clarke-pitchforks-and-torches_us_580257ffe4b06e04759531a6?section=& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/david-clarke-pitchforks-and-torches_us_580257ffe4b06e04759531a6?section=&)

"Sheriff supporting Trump says it's time to bring out pitchforks and torches".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 16, 2016, 05:41:10 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-rigged-elections-republicans-229846 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-rigged-elections-republicans-229846)

"Fears mount on Trump's "rigged election" rhetoric".

Top Republicans are coming under pressure to defend the legitimacy of the electoral system.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 16, 2016, 05:59:11 PM
I think Trump is using this rhetoric to bolster his post-election career.  I wouldn't be surprised if, the day after the election, he might refuse to concede his electoral defeat, and instead blame the outcome on vote-tampering and a grand media conspiracy to smear him.

Claiming, then, that he's the "true" winner of the election, he might have some hope of being seen by a segment of the population as the legitimate President.  Paid speeches and appearances might then replace his real estate income.

However, this kind of rhetoric is fundamentally toxic to the orderly operation of democracy.  Faith in the legitimacy of votes is a bedrock of democratic society.  His entire approach has worked to undermine his own country.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Csnavywx on October 16, 2016, 10:06:53 PM
Trump very likely isn't going to win at this point. He had a chance 2 weeks ago, before the tapes and allegations hit. In the short run, it doesn't look like we're going to have to suffer him.

In the long term, the populist movement that gave birth to him (and Brexit) is going to be a very real threat. It isn't going anywhere and I fear it may birth something worse than Trump in the longer run.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 16, 2016, 10:51:21 PM

In the long term, the populist movement that gave birth to him (and Brexit) is going to be a very real threat. It isn't going anywhere and I fear it may birth something worse than Trump in the longer run.


That concerns me as well. Meanwhile, Trump continued to ratchet up the rhetoric today:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-intensifies-his-claim-that-campaign-is-%E2%80%98rigged%E2%80%99/ar-AAj1OGP?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-intensifies-his-claim-that-campaign-is-%E2%80%98rigged%E2%80%99/ar-AAj1OGP?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 16, 2016, 11:19:11 PM
Some quotes from Trump's inner circle earlier today:

Newt Gingrich; "Without media assault Trump would be up fifteen points".

Rudy Giuliani; "Dead people generally vote for democrats".

Mike Pence; "Trump's sexual misconduct allegations not substantiated".

Mike Pence; "We will absolutely accept the result of the election".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 16, 2016, 11:35:30 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-carolina-gop-headquarters-firebombed/ar-AAj1Jot?ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-carolina-gop-headquarters-firebombed/ar-AAj1Jot?ocid=spartandhp)

From Fox News; An adjacent building marked with spray painted graffiti "Nazi Republicans get out of town or else".

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 06:18:07 AM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-clinton-react-to-attack-on-local-nc-gop-headquarters/ar-AAj1SG7?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-clinton-react-to-attack-on-local-nc-gop-headquarters/ar-AAj1SG7?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Reaction from both nominees over the attack on local North Carolina GOP Headquarters.

Without any proof, Trump fires off another tweet blaming "animals" representing Hillary Clinton and Democrats for the firebombing of the GOP local office. I'll describe his actions using a three letter word that he often uses in his tweets to describe  a situation: SAD.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 06:51:21 AM
In this cartoon, Jesus gets off the cross and departs as a preacher looking a lot like Pat Robertson preaches that the religious right is sticking with Donald Trump. Other political cartoons are included.

http://www.politico.com/gallery/2016/10/october-2016-002359?slide=0 (http://www.politico.com/gallery/2016/10/october-2016-002359?slide=0)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 07:08:29 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-native-americans-arizona_us_5802f2dfe4b06e0475954a71? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-native-americans-arizona_us_5802f2dfe4b06e0475954a71?)

"Donald Trump faces payback in the desert". If the presidential race is close in Arizona, Native Americans could throw it to Clinton.

excerpt: "Make America great again? There was an even greater America before 1492".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 01:47:57 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-accuser-zervos-fights-back-with-witness/ar-AAj1KzG?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-accuser-zervos-fights-back-with-witness/ar-AAj1KzG?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Summer Zervos is fighting back against the Trump campaign's attack on her credibility".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 17, 2016, 04:34:07 PM
On an issue that is important to Trump, and close to his heart....

http://www.businessinsider.com/hair-surgeon-explains-donald-trumps-hair-2015-12 (http://www.businessinsider.com/hair-surgeon-explains-donald-trumps-hair-2015-12)

Yes....who would have guessed?  Even the Donald's hair isn't natural.  The only things natural about Donald Trump, are his non-existent heart...and his over-sized ego.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 17, 2016, 06:03:48 PM
WOW.  The Republican party's problems with (1) blacks (2) Hispanics, and (3) Gays are well known.

But take a look at the graph in this article by Nate's group at 538.com.  The graph, midway down the page, shows the discrepancy between how men and women vote.  The discrepancy since 1952 until now.....CONTINUES TO GROW.  And women.....are MUCH more likely to vote Democratic than men.  You don't have to be a "graph expert" to see that....over time.....the "highs are higher, and the lows are higher".  In other words.....the trend is zigzagging....but it is zigzagging UP. 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/men-are-treating-2016-as-a-normal-election-women-arent/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/men-are-treating-2016-as-a-normal-election-women-arent/)

Since women comprise about 53% of the vote compared to men at 47%....that is NOT good news for Republicans when women, since 1952....are continuing to vote MORE AND MORE for the Democratic ticket in presidential races.

If the Republicans could get the "old white bigoted men" out of office....it would likely bode well for them.  Unfortunately.... when you take a look at Texas or Georgia or Alabama.....that's all you see on the Republican side.

NOT GOOD....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 06:10:47 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-tv-venture_us_5804d13fe4b0e8c198a8f3cb (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-tv-venture_us_5804d13fe4b0e8c198a8f3cb)

"Donald Trump may launch TV venture after election".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 08:34:07 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/fbi-state-department-clinton-email-229880 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/fbi-state-department-clinton-email-229880)

"State Dept. official accused of offering 'quid pro quo' in Clinton email scandal".

An unnamed FBI official alleges Patrick Kennedy asked agency to downgrade classified email in exchange for FBI agents in more countries.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 08:53:35 PM

I will STILL be watching (1) New Hampshire (2) Pennsylvania (3) North Carolina (4) Florida and (5) Nevada.
 

I'm from New Hampshire, (now living in Florida), so I'm fairly certain that Clinton will win there. Nevertheless, it will be close so it does bear watching.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 09:02:28 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/17/investing/stock-market-clinton-trump/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/17/investing/stock-market-clinton-trump/index.html)

"Investors really want Clinton to win now".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 17, 2016, 09:29:09 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/in-deep-red-florida-trouble-for-trump/ar-AAj3PPy?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/in-deep-red-florida-trouble-for-trump/ar-AAj3PPy?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

From USA Today, by Ledyard King.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 17, 2016, 09:59:39 PM
Clinton going on offense.  Looks like they are going to "make a play" for Arizona and perhaps Georgia.  Michelle Obama.....Bernie....and Chelsea are going to Arizona to campaign.

ARIZONA......WOW.

Georgia....we'll have to wait and see if they do indeed make a play for it.  It is tightening a little bit....but they are spread pretty thin right now with a lot of "battleground states" in play...

Part of reason why they would WANT to expand the field....is for the NEXT election in 4 years.....

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 12:47:38 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-tweets_us_5804d173e4b0e8c198a8f40a? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-tweets_us_5804d173e4b0e8c198a8f40a?)

"Trump's morning: Attack Biden, female accusers, fellow Republicans and electoral integrity, all before noon".

Personal thought: If Trump lacked an audience, he'd probably commit suicide! I think Trump's own personal version of hell would be that no one would be interested in what he has to say.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 01:02:51 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/democratic-leadership-criticize-republican-leadership-trump-rigged-229895 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/democratic-leadership-criticize-republican-leadership-trump-rigged-229895)

"Pelosi and Reid call on Ryan and McConnell to repudiate Trump rigging claims". In Paul Ryan's defense, he already has, but Mitch McConnell has not.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 03:04:11 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-election-rigged_us_580548c8e4b0dd54ce34b492? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-election-rigged_us_580548c8e4b0dd54ce34b492?)

"The people who know how to actually rig an election say Trump is wrong".

"The stuff he is talking about, it is ridiculous".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 06:02:59 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/17/politics/melania-trump-interview/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/17/politics/melania-trump-interview/index.html)

CNN interview with Melania Trump. "Donald Trump was egged on into boy talk". Melania defended her husband in her first interview since the Republican nominee faced allegations of sexual misconduct.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 06:16:28 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37676976 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37676976)

"US election 2016: Presidential campaign alarms Europeans".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 06:29:20 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-wisconsin-ryan-priebus-229905 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-wisconsin-ryan-priebus-229905)

"Trump's Wisconsin strategy: Burn it all down".

"The nominee prepped for his visit with a flurry of attacks on the state GOP's favorite son", Paul Ryan.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 06:53:06 AM
Not being an enthusiastic Clinton supporter, I'm thinking vote Clinton to prevent a Trump presidency. At the same time, I think a check on the power of a Clinton presidency would be a good idea, in the form of a divided government; Clinton as President with (hopefully) a Democratic majority in the Senate, but a Republican majority in the House. The Democrats have a pretty good chance of winning back the Senate, but a very slim chance of winning the House.

The way I see it is Clinton becomes President for four years, but those four years are a kind of probation. Depending on how her first term unfolds, I and at least some Democrats wouldn't necessarily vote for her for a second term. If four years hence and we are not satisfied with Clinton's performance, I think many of us would prefer a moderate Republican, perhaps like John Kasich, who I would have preferred this year.

In that context, is the linked article about Republicans rushing to build a firewall to protect their majority in the House. Even if the House changed to a Democratic majority, (which I think is unlikely), the Republicans will easily win it back in two years during the mid-term elections.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/house-republicans-firewall-election-229910 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/house-republicans-firewall-election-229910)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 07:14:41 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/chelsea-clinton-foundation-hillary-bill-229903 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/chelsea-clinton-foundation-hillary-bill-229903)

Chelsea: "Aides hustling business at foundation".

"Hacked emails reveal allegations of financial impropriety by Clinton insiders".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 18, 2016, 01:02:35 PM
Kasich does, at least, think that GW is real.

But he doesn't think we should do anything about it. So its a distinction without a difference.

He wants to (further) cut education spending, presumably because he sees how uneducated voters can be more easily duped into voting against their own interests by voting Republican.

Wants to repeal most of the Affordable Health Care Act, like all other Republicans, who don't have any rational plan to replace it.

Will ban many abortions. (Why do so many white men want to tell white and non-white women what they can and cannot do with their own bodies?)

Want to cut corporate taxes, presumably because he thinks corporations don't yet have enough total control over our lives...

Limit union power...can't have workers getting any rights, after all!!

AND...and...he want to throw yet more soldiers in harms way, involving US ground troops in yet another unwinnable war in Asia...

The guys a disaster...just not quite as total a disaster as the yet more repugnant of the Repugs.

The person to look to in 2020 is Elizabeth Warren.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 18, 2016, 02:22:34 PM
I was WRONG about the Arctic ice sheet this year.  I expected a new record low (which did NOT happen)....and I expected that it would impact the elections.

BUT....it turns out that global warming WILL impact the election this year in another way....in FLORIDA.  The annual "king tide" has just hit.  This year....it was worse than most due to the type of alignment of the sun and moon, and the distance (lack of distance) from the moon and earth.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/02af5928-d374-3888-8142-ae26b377f9af/ss_climate-change-makes-waves-in.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/02af5928-d374-3888-8142-ae26b377f9af/ss_climate-change-makes-waves-in.html)

As the oceans continue to rise.....the annual king tides have become worse and worse.  In some places....they are making roadways HIGHER....and Miami Beach is installing hundreds of millions of dollars of pumps.

Of course.....mother nature is likely laughing her head off...because those efforts are SHORT TERM....and will be woefully inadequate unless we get CO2 levels down PRONTO...and, as most of us know....it is likely TOO LATE for some areas (like Miami Beach).

Here's another video clip of the recent king tides as well:  http://wsvn.com/news/local/weekend-king-tides-cause-flooding-across-south-florida/ (http://wsvn.com/news/local/weekend-king-tides-cause-flooding-across-south-florida/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 18, 2016, 02:29:36 PM
Kasich does, at least, think that GW is real.

But he doesn't think we should do anything about it. So its a distinction without a difference.

..............Will ban many abortions. (Why do so many white men want to tell white and non-white women what they can and cannot do with their own bodies?)...........

The guys a disaster...just not quite as total a disaster as the yet more repugnant of the Repugs.

The person to look to in 2020 is Elizabeth Warren.

I agree.  Although....I do think he is the "tallest midget in the Republican room"

As a fiscal conservative....I wish the Republicans would:

(1) "stay out of the bedroom"
(2) get on board with dealing with global warming
(3) quit trying to rig the tax code for upper income earners....its short sighted (and I'm a CPA)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 18, 2016, 02:34:13 PM
Good point about Florida--I hope you're right.

he is the "tallest midget in the Republican room"

Nice, but of course an insult to actual midgets, like this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Reich  --an intellectual giant compared to those guys, even if I can't figure out why he is so obsessed about 'saving capitalism'--not that I want to kill it, just shrink it down so it's small enough to drown in a bathtub! :)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 03:22:41 PM
Kasich does, at least, think that GW is real.

The guys a disaster...just not quite as total a disaster as the yet more repugnant of the Repugs.

The person to look to in 2020 is Elizabeth Warren.

I don't think Kasich is a disaster or repugnant, but he wouldn't be my first choice for President either. For 2016, if the choice was Kasich or Clinton, Kasich would get my vote. In 2020, assuming Clinton is president and she does a good job and stays out of trouble (ethics wise), she'll get my vote again. As for Elizabeth Warren, she can kick ass and take names! If she became the Democrat's nominee in 2020 or 2024, I would likely vote for her, but I think she's a little too far to the left.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 18, 2016, 04:04:22 PM
Nice, but of course an insult to actual midgets, like this guy:


I like Robert Reich...smart guy....

Maybe I should have said:  "The cleanest of the dirtiest shirts"..... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 18, 2016, 04:08:11 PM
Anyone wanting to look up ISSUES on any US politician.....here's a good site for you folks.  It is NON PARTISAN...unbiased....not-for-profit organization....and they do a really nice job:

http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm (http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 09:44:18 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/republican-national-committee-election-rigged-229936 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/republican-national-committee-election-rigged-229936)

"RNC members agree with Trump: It's rigged".

Many top GOP officials believe the fix is in.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 18, 2016, 11:57:09 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37691040 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37691040)

"Tell America it's great? 'That is so Canadian'

Luckily for world-weary Americans, some light relief is on hand thanks to their northern neighbors in Canada. During this tough election, us Americans are struggling, so come on you Canadians, send us some love!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 19, 2016, 05:23:22 AM
Thank God.  Only 3 more weeks.....and one more debate.  What will happen the last 3 weeks? 
Will Trump have an absolute meltdown?  Will Republican leaders like Ryan and McConnel finally unendorce IF Trump goes completely off the rails?  What will be the outcome of the last debate?  Will the gap tighten over the last 3 weeks?

The Republicans built up a band of crazies in the country over the last 10 years or more with all kinds of conspiracy theories.....and now that they have a ringleader who feeds them.....the politicians can't support him....nor can they totally leave him for fear that the band of crazies will vote them out of office.

Can't wait till this is over...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 19, 2016, 07:01:06 AM

Can't wait till this is over...


I'll second that Buddy! From the NY Times; "Trump's call to monitor polls raises fear of intimidation".

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump%E2%80%99s-call-to-monitor-polls-raises-fears-of-intimidation/ar-AAj7eR4?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump%E2%80%99s-call-to-monitor-polls-raises-fears-of-intimidation/ar-AAj7eR4?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 19, 2016, 12:31:40 PM
As a slight humorous piece, the National Broadcasting company here asked the national parliament members of one voting area which one they would choose: 1 (evolution denialist) would vote for Trump, 4 would vote for Clinton, but the rest of the 8 said something along the lines, "It really doesn't matter, it's not our concern, we'll trust the americans", indicating they really don't care so I think they'd vote for Trump, so it's not over yet.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on October 19, 2016, 03:10:20 PM
budmantis wrote: "...a little too far to the left"

Interesting. I was just having a conversation with a US conservative on another site. He pointed out that his Canadian relatives, who also consider themselves rock solid conservatives, are totally bewildered by the US's lack of universal health care, something pretty much everyone in every other developed country takes for granted.

So Sanders' and Warren's position on this, at least, would be considered completely in alignment with rock solid conservative views in most other countries, but it makes them beyond-the-pale lefties here.

We do really live in an exceptionally strange country (though I'm not sure that's what most people mean by American 'Exceptionalism'!  ;D :o).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 19, 2016, 04:12:59 PM
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/one-month-253-trump-untruths-214369?lo=ap_b1 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/one-month-253-trump-untruths-214369?lo=ap_b1)

"Confessions of a Trump fact-checker".

By Daniel Dale; "I spent thirty three days fact checking 253 Trump falsehoods. Here's what I've learned".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 19, 2016, 06:22:09 PM
budmantis wrote: "...a little too far to the left"


We do really live in an exceptionally strange country (though I'm not sure that's what most people mean by American 'Exceptionalism'!  ;D :o).

That's a good one Wili and you're right, we do live in an exceptionally strange country. I'm thinking of the billions of dollars being spent on this election. It's obscene.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 20, 2016, 07:51:39 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-debate-230067 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-debate-230067)

"Five takeaways from the final debate".

"He made his biggest mistake just as she delivered her best performance".

Thank god that the debates are over! I don't think I could have handled another one. For the first twenty minutes or so, Trump did well, then he reverted back to his former "ugly" self. I actually liked Trump somewhat during the apprentice series, but I could never understand why all contestants in the boardroom, including celebrity apprentice contestants had to call him Mr. Trump. Actually I do understand, it was to feed his ego. If I was a contestant and I had to call him Mr. Trump, I would have insisted he call me Mr. Budmantis or my actual last name preceded by Mr., but I digress.

I think I made it known on the Forum that I'm not an enthusiastic supporter of Hillary Clinton. Her poise and performance in the debates has raised my respect for her by a couple notches though, and given the choice of who we have to vote for, she's obviously our best choice. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see how Congress and the Senate will work with her.

Except for the first two years of Obama's presidency, both houses of Congress have stonewalled him on just about everything. If there had been a bipartisan effort to launch a healthcare program in 2010, it would likely be a hell of a lot better than what is known as Obamacare. My wife and I have both benefited from the Affordable Care Act since it's inception, but changes have to be made to it to make it work better.

I hope this "stonewalling" by the Republicans in both houses of Congress will stop and bipartisanship begins again. The onus is not just on the Republicans, it is also on Hillary Clinton, who most likely will be our next President. It will likely be politics as usual, but I can hope for better things.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 20, 2016, 01:16:16 PM
Well....no victory for Trump in the third match.  And from "my read" of the debate...as well as others.....Trump lost this one as well.  He just can't help himself.  It's like watching a play that EVERYONE KNOWS the quarterback is going to FAKE the handoff.......but he still takes the bait (the fake handoff) and the quarterback passes the ball instead.  It is a "reflex action" on Trumps part.  He just can't help it.

So now....baring any unforeseen surprise or event.....the attention will turn to the Senate.  There are 4 RAZOR THIN margins in the senate races:  New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Nevada (all except Missouri are "battleground states"....and Missouri isn't THAT far off either).

Right now...Nate has the chances of the Dems winning a majority at 75%....but those 4 really close races can turn EITHER WAY.  It would certainly be a BIG BONUS if the Dems have the majority in the Senate....but remember that it will STILL BE HARD TO PASS POLICY because the "filibuster" has been used so much in the last 12 years.  A bill only needs a MAJORITY VOTE to pass (>50%).  BUT...if it is "filibustered"......then it needs 60% pass.  Nobody is going to have a "filibuster proof majority" in the next Senate........EITHER PARTY.   And the House is still going to have a majority for the Republicans unless Trump is found in bed having sex with a Russian spy (in which case Melania Trump will say that the spy "egged him on...it wasn't Donald's fault ;)).

But....it is certainly a "good thing" to have the majority.  And for passing policy over coming years on global warming.......it will be a HUGE PLUS to have at least a majority.

I happen to think that global warming is going to put an anchor on Republicans in coming years and coming elections.  Those that continue to look away from what is actually happening.....like Rubio and a boat full of others....are going to pay a political price.

It will also be interesting to see how Donald behaves during the last 3 weeks.  Does he come TOTALLY UNHINGED?  Or....does he just continue on his "mostly unhinged" path that he is currently on?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 20, 2016, 02:47:12 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-3-am-tweet-third-debate-230078 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-3-am-tweet-third-debate-230078)

"Trump tweets at 3AM that he won the debate".

I wonder how many people agree with him?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 20, 2016, 03:28:25 PM
National Polls:  Take your choice.....

Behind curtain #1.....we have Trump winning by 1% of the vote according to the IBD/TIPP (Investors Business Daily) poll and 3% of the vote according to Rasmussen's poll.

Behind curtain #2....we have Clinton winning by anywhere from 4% - 11% of the national popular vote.

Three weeks until we find out who is right.  Will be interesting to see how the various polls "move" over the coming three weeks.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/ (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 21, 2016, 03:11:35 PM
On a scale of 1 to 10....ten being highest.....what do you think Rudy would give the following joke:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_euAvUdBKc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_euAvUdBKc)

Yea....Rudy wasn't thrilled with that one.  And I hate that Hillary took a shot at FOX... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 21, 2016, 03:25:04 PM
The "Al Smith" charity dinner has been a mainstay each presidential election cycle.....where BOTH presidential candidates from each party give comedic speeches...with a lot of "SELF DEPRICATING" notes.

This year....was NOT done in that vain.  Unfortunate...and Trump took things WAY over the line...and received many rounds of boos from the conservative crowd.

Below is George Bush in October of 2000....just before the close election of that year.  Bush NAILED IT.  And look at the MANY self deprecating remarks about himself.  And note that Al Gore is laughing when the jokes turn to him.  This year....the only "deprecating remark" done by Trump...was at his wife's expense.  Too bad really....Trump had a LOT of material to use on himself.

Again...here is George Bush from Oct 2000.  Really funny stuff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te5847t3CU0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te5847t3CU0)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 21, 2016, 03:45:28 PM
THIS....is how the Al Smith Charity dinner is supposed to be done by BOTH candidates.  Here are Obama and Romney in 2012.  Both self deprecating.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5M5TDJyiYU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5M5TDJyiYU)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 21, 2016, 03:54:21 PM
Former head of the Republican National Committee.....Michael Steele....drops Trump:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-steele-donald-trump_us_5809f6efe4b000d0b155f6a7 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-steele-donald-trump_us_5809f6efe4b000d0b155f6a7)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 21, 2016, 08:18:01 PM
Right now.....the "electoral total" for Clinton looks to be about 333....which would be 1 (one) more than Obama got against Romney in 2012.

The mix would be different:  Clinton is likely to pick up Arizona and North Caroline.....but may lose Ohio and Iowa.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 22, 2016, 06:17:27 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-stock-markets_us_580a6ad3e4b0cdea3d87607c (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-stock-markets_us_580a6ad3e4b0cdea3d87607c)

"Donald Trump victory would send stocks plummeting ten to fifteen percent according to this article".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 22, 2016, 06:22:51 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176)

"Early voting shows upsurge of women".

"In Georgia, No. Carolina and Florida, Democrats see uptick in women taking ballots as reason for optimism".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 22, 2016, 02:35:48 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/terry-tate-donald-trump-tackle-clip_us_580b2674e4b02444efa3a99a?section= (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/terry-tate-donald-trump-tackle-clip_us_580b2674e4b02444efa3a99a?section=)

For anyone wanting to punch Trump, this spoof of Terry Tate tackling the Donald provides some satisfaction and comic relief.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 22, 2016, 02:48:51 PM
@realDonaldTrump:  The results are in on the final debate and it is almost unanimous, I WON! Thank you, these are very exciting times.
@HillaryClinton: Where was this kind of comedy last night?

https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/status/789524541789859840
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 22, 2016, 03:37:50 PM
The race tightened up this week....I would expect more tightening in the next 2 weeks..

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 22, 2016, 04:48:09 PM
The race tightened up this week....I would expect more tightening in the next 2 weeks..


The linked article provides numbers on just how much the race has tightened in recent weeks:

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/10/hillary_clinton_vs_donald_trum_2.html (http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/10/hillary_clinton_vs_donald_trum_2.html)

Extract: "FiveThirtyEight.com has Clinton's chances of winning in the Nov. 8 general election at 86 percent as compared to 14 percent for Republican challenger Donald Trump. The numbers are based on which candidate people said they would vote for if the election were held today.

An alternate forecast on the same site – based on polls, the performance of the economy and historical data – has Clinton's chances at 84 percent compared to Trump's 16 percent.

FiveThirtyEight's forecast earlier this week had Clinton's chances of defeating Trump at 90 percent. The business mogul-turned-politician's numbers rebounded slightly in the wake of Wednesday night's final presidential debate after weeks turmoil over reports that the candidate sexually harassed women. Trump has repeatedly denied those claims.

...

On Sept. 26, Clinton was polling at 52 percent compared to Trump's 48 percent. Two weeks later – after the release of a video showing Trump referring to grabbing a woman's genitals – the numbers flipped to 90 percent for the Democratic nominee and 10 percent for the GOP pick.

The numbers have also flipped in battleground states, with Clinton now leading in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Ohio."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 22, 2016, 10:15:18 PM
When I said the race tightened "this week".....I literally meant 1 week.  Before that.....the difference expanded in Clinton's favor.  But over the last week....it tightened (according to Nate Silver).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

How much it will tighten GOING FORWARD.....I have no idea.  Unless something "ground shaking" happens....I wouldn't think much.  As long as the popular vote gap stays above 4%....I'll probably sleep pretty well.  Right now...it's about 6.4% (down from almost 7% a week ago.

And those of you worried about the Rasmussen poll which shows Trump up by 2%.....keep in mind that Nate grades it as a "C" poll.  It is biased.....and it is ALWAYS biased to the right.  Take a look at the Rasmussen poll taken right before the last election with Romney vs Obama in 2012.  If you pay special attention to the STATES.....Rasmussen missed BADLY.  Nationally....they had Romney up by 5% popular vote right before election....and he ended up losing by 4%.....so that was a 9% miss.

The headline in Rasmussen was:  "Going out on a limb:  Romney beats Obama Handily."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/going_out_on_a_limb_romney_beats_obama_handily (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/going_out_on_a_limb_romney_beats_obama_handily)

As if that wasn't bad enough......Rasmussen missed the following states which it called for Romney:

Florida....Ohio....Iowa.....Virginia....Colorado.....New Hampshire....Pennsylvania.....Wisconsin

Rasmussen had the electoral count as Romeney 315.....Obama 223.  It actually turned out Obama 332....Romney 206.

Just missed it by a whisker:  9% in popular vote....and 109 electoral votes the wrong way.. ;) 

The other poll that has Trump in the lead is IBD (investors Business Daily).  If you though that FOX was biased......you need to be introduced to IBD.  They are WORSE.  SERIOUSLY.  And to add insult to injury....they lie about global warming ALL THE TIME.

I'll stick with Nate.  If he calls the race for Trump on Tuesday morning before the count starts:  That is what I would go with.  It's like taking Michael Jordan over me in a game of horse. 



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 23, 2016, 08:37:18 AM
[url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/terry-tate-donald-trump-tackle-clip_us_580b2674e4b02444efa3a99a?section=[/url] ([url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/terry-tate-donald-trump-tackle-clip_us_580b2674e4b02444efa3a99a?section=[/url])

For anyone wanting to punch Trump, this spoof of Terry Tate tackling the Donald provides some satisfaction and comic relief.

Nicely done, I think that video is worth a closer look?
(https://s14.postimg.org/bvd37n1fl/Terry_Tate.gif)
And a bit slower just to display the retouching of the other Donalds face.
(https://s13.postimg.org/glr6t5hef/Terry_Tate_Slow.gif)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 23, 2016, 02:16:00 PM
Thanks Sleepy. It's weird but the more I watch the loop of the Trump takedown, the more I want to watch. Comic relief and stress relief!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2016, 08:00:24 PM
It did poll pretty well....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 24, 2016, 07:36:03 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/trump-2012-immigration/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/trump-2012-immigration/index.html)

"Trump in 2012 on deporting many undocumented immigrants: I don't believe in that".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 24, 2016, 07:38:52 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-ridiculous-comparison-of-al-gore-to-donald-trump/2016/10/23/65fec8f8-97d2-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html?utm_term=.60fb837b49c7 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-ridiculous-comparison-of-al-gore-to-donald-trump/2016/10/23/65fec8f8-97d2-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html?utm_term=.60fb837b49c7)

E.J. Dionne, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution said: "Trump is not a GOP aberration".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 24, 2016, 07:44:46 AM
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/trump-american-democracy-could-break-down-214383 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/trump-american-democracy-could-break-down-214383)

"Yes, American democracy could break down".

"It might not be Trump, but our system is more vulnerable to a demagogue than you'd think".

By Yascha Mounk. Personally, I cant imagine a demagogue worse than Trump, but I could be mistaken.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 24, 2016, 09:52:30 AM
budmantis, there's certainly some pent up emotions that are released with that Terry Tate video you posted. :) By chance I stumbled over one of my own comments from last October on a Swedish blog (attempting to spook); "It's soon halloween: Imagine Trump as the next POTUS?"
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 24, 2016, 02:19:17 PM
budmantis, there's certainly some pent up emotions that are released with that Terry Tate video you posted. :) By chance I stumbled over one of my own comments from last October on a Swedish blog (attempting to spook); "It's soon halloween: Imagine Trump as the next POTUS?"


Here's a little more comic relief:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/eric-trump-poses-with-woman-in-anti-trump-shirt/ar-AAjj4OZ?ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/eric-trump-poses-with-woman-in-anti-trump-shirt/ar-AAjj4OZ?ocid=spartandhp)

In a way, I find it hard to believe that no one at this Trump rally knew what "contra" meant.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 24, 2016, 07:06:49 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/24/news/economy/trump-wages-middle-skill-worker/index.html?iid=H_MKT_News (http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/24/news/economy/trump-wages-middle-skill-worker/index.html?iid=H_MKT_News)

"Why Trump resonates: Wages plunged for middle-skill workers".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 24, 2016, 10:23:36 PM
The linked Washington Post article is entitled: "Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero"  :)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/)

Extract: "The election is in 15 days. And the electoral map just keeps looking grimmer and grimmer for Donald Trump."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 24, 2016, 11:36:07 PM
The linked Washington Post article is entitled: "Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero"  :)

Don't get TOO GIDDY.....these are POLLS.  And polls have been wrong before.  They have tightened a bit over the last week....and I would expect them to continue to tighten some more. 

Right now....Nate has Clinton with a 6.2% lead.  That could very easily go down to 4% over two weeks.

It still means Trumps chances are not great....but they are a LOT better than zero.  I hope I am wrong and it is a blowout....but I DON'T see a POPULAR VOTE BLOWOUT happening.

By the way.....the Washington Post is very left leaning....just as IBD and Rassumessen are RIGHT LEANING.  So I don't look at EITHER.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 25, 2016, 06:51:26 AM
The linked Washington Post article is entitled: "Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero"  :)



http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/24/donald-trump-just-got-some-of-his-best-polling-news-in-weeks/21590934/ (http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/24/donald-trump-just-got-some-of-his-best-polling-news-in-weeks/21590934/)

A CNN poll released Monday shows Trump trailing Clinton by 5 points. Conventional wisdom would say that Trump is all washed up and I hope it is true, but there seems to be a lot of mixed signals out there and this election is proving to be anything but conventional.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 25, 2016, 07:12:55 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37726844 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37726844)

"U.S. election: How Trump went down in a Mexican bbq joint".

Checkout the Trump piñata!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 25, 2016, 07:15:22 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-book-donor-money_us_580e7b09e4b02444efa4e7c4 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-book-donor-money_us_580e7b09e4b02444efa4e7c4)

"Trump donors paid for his jetliner, his hotels and now, his books".

Now that's what I call leveraging!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 25, 2016, 07:19:21 AM
Indirectly related to the Presidential election;

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/20/politics/republicans-ousting-paul-ryan-donald-trump/ (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/20/politics/republicans-ousting-paul-ryan-donald-trump/)

"GOP lawmaker: Move to oust Ryan grows over speaker's tepid support of Trump".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 25, 2016, 09:07:38 AM
The linked Washington Post article is entitled: "Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero"  :)
Hopefully, and I'll be content with the BAU alternative. That's a first. :(
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 25, 2016, 02:36:11 PM
Here are 5 possible scenarios per an article in fivethirtyeight.com regarding the DAY AFTER the election.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/youll-likely-be-reading-one-of-these-5-articles-the-day-after-the-election/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/youll-likely-be-reading-one-of-these-5-articles-the-day-after-the-election/)

I happen to believe....as of now....that the election will be about a 4% - 5% popular vote victory for Clinton.....and she'll get about 333 electoral votes.  That is just slightly better than scenario #3 in the article.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 25, 2016, 03:22:08 PM
Here are 5 possible scenarios per an article in fivethirtyeight.com regarding the DAY AFTER the election.

[url]http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/youll-likely-be-reading-one-of-these-5-articles-the-day-after-the-election/[/url] ([url]http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/youll-likely-be-reading-one-of-these-5-articles-the-day-after-the-election/[/url])

I happen to believe....as of now....that the election will be about a 4% - 5% popular vote victory for Clinton.....and she'll get about 333 electoral votes.  That is just slightly better than scenario #3 in the article.


I'm hoping that scenario number 2 will be the actual outcome of this election. I think it is important for Clinton to get to 50% of the popular vote, which should quash any claims of voter fraud as well as giving her a solid mandate.

I think scenario 3 is most likely to happen though. Scenario 4 and 5 are almost equally horrific. A narrow Clinton victory would create more chaos than the 2000 presidential election did. Scenario 1 would be great, but it's about as likely to happen as a Trump victory in scenario 5.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 25, 2016, 04:54:30 PM
FYI....the Rasmussen poll....which is HEAVILY right leaning (they were off by 9% in 2012) has moved by 3% just over the last day towards Clinton.

Yesterday...their poll from Oct 19-23 showed Trump up by 2%.  The poll out today, shows Clinton up by 1% (taken Oct 20-24).  A 3% move IN ONE DAY IS A BIG MOVE.

Rasmussen is a well known "cheerleader" of the Republican party...so their poll is not taken seriously.  But I do enjoy watching it.  We'll see if they find the dart board this year after missing so badly last time around.  Another miss like 2012.....and NOBODY will take them seriously.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 25, 2016, 10:02:39 PM
More "Trump" fallout in the "Trump Empire".....

https://www.yahoo.com/style/women-are-boycotting-ivanka-trumps-fashion-line-and-the-stores-that-sell-it-200910513.html (https://www.yahoo.com/style/women-are-boycotting-ivanka-trumps-fashion-line-and-the-stores-that-sell-it-200910513.html)

It's only going to get worse for them in months and years ahead....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 26, 2016, 06:36:57 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bill-oreilly-rigged-election_us_58101db6e4b02b1d9e63ba93 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bill-oreilly-rigged-election_us_58101db6e4b02b1d9e63ba93)

"Bill O'Reilly turns on Trump. says talk of "rigged" election "is not a patriotic thing".

"The vote cannot possibly be rigged two weeks from tonight".

In my opinion, O'Reilly has been unusually deferential to Trump during this campaign, but it looks like he's grown a pair in the closing weeks. Good for him.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 26, 2016, 06:46:18 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/vote-protectors-voter-intimidation_us_580e4e63e4b0a03911ee03bc (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/vote-protectors-voter-intimidation_us_580e4e63e4b0a03911ee03bc)

"Trump loyalists planned voter intimidation using fake ID badges, fake exit polling - until Huffpost asked them about it".

"The 'vote protectors' are affiliated with Trump advisor Roger Stone".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 26, 2016, 06:49:03 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-down-ballot-republicans_us_580e8b40e4b02444efa4f52e (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-down-ballot-republicans_us_580e8b40e4b02444efa4f52e)

"Donald Trump's get out the vote problem could cost Republicans bigly".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 26, 2016, 06:55:53 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/panicking-gop-makes-major-last-minute-senate-investment-230309 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/panicking-gop-makes-major-last-minute-senate-investment-230309)

Extract: Republicans on the verge of losing the Senate, are plowing a mammoth 25 million into six races, in a last ditch attempt to stop Donald Trump from dragging the entire GOP down with him.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 26, 2016, 01:00:21 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-37756189 (http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-37756189)

"US elections: Africans chuckle at ugly US election".

"Africans are laughing at the U.S. election on twitter".

Love that picture! ;D
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 26, 2016, 01:10:16 PM
Right now....the popular vote gap is 6% (down from 7%).   If it continues to tighten....down to 5% or 4% the Clinton "firewall" (important states to stop any FURTHER incursion) are:

1)  Pennsylvania (Clinton's most important state)
2)  Nevada
3)  New Hampshire
4)  Minnesota
5)  Wisconsin

Those last two states are "wildcards".  There hasn't been a lot of polling....and they "should" go to Clinton....but if for whatever reason one of them "breaks" the other way.....THAT would be a VERY BIG DEAL....which is why Clinton is playing for Arizona...."just in case."

I think Trump is going to take Ohio and Iowa.....and I have thought that for a while.  So to me...they aren't battleground states anymore.

If Clinton were to have a "bad day" (low voter turnout for instance)....and Trump were to take the closely contested states of North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona.....then Clinton could still win AS LONG AS Minnesota and Wisconsin stay in her column (assuming she wins Penn and Virginia and Colorado which I have as "locks").  IF she was to lose either Minnesota or Wisconsin.....then she would need to take ARIZONA to win (Nevada would not be enough for her).

Again....I think the race is going to tighten in the last two weeks.  How much...I have no idea.  Hopefully Clinton gets a victory EARLY (East Coast Time) like North Carolina OR Florida that would put the election away....but if she doesn't....it could be a late night.

 

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 26, 2016, 01:48:57 PM
Again....I think the race is going to tighten in the last two weeks.  How much...I have no idea.  Hopefully Clinton gets a victory EARLY (East Coast Time) like North Carolina OR Florida that would put the election away....but if she doesn't....it could be a late night.

Buddy: In my estimation, I think Clinton will win by a minimum of 4 to 5 points. What would cause the margin of victory to be less than 4 points in your estimation?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 26, 2016, 03:07:26 PM
Buddy: In my estimation, I think Clinton will win by a minimum of 4 to 5 points. What would cause the margin of victory to be less than 4 points in your estimation?


No telling.  Per my post a couple days ago....I expect the popular vote margin to be 4% -  5%.  Voters are getting more and more "locked in"....so it will take something bigger NOW to change a voters mind.

If you look at the second chart in the link below....the "chances of winning" graph....you'll see why I thought about 1.5 weeks ago was the intermediate "peak" (October 17th)....and we have been SLOWLY "rolling over".  By election day....we may be at 64% - 67% Clinton and 33% - 36% Trump.  That would likely be about 4% or slightly more popular vote for Clinton.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

It depends on what happens with "events".  Middle east?  China?  Russia?  Wiki?  Stock market?  Remember...we're trying to figure out what OTHERS are going to do.  So it is hard to predict what OTHERS' reaction to news is going to be.

The polls are based on what real people say.  But all polls have an "error factor" that surrounds them.  Obviously the lower that Trump is able to get the popular vote gap....the better his chances come election day.  We also have WEATHER to contend with.  Better weather means better turnout....means better chances for the Democrat's.  Worse weather...or lower turnout....means better chances for Republicans.



 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 26, 2016, 03:45:03 PM
A little "perspective" on election cost in the US:

1)  This presidential election will likely run about $1.5 BILLION for both party's combined (hint....YES....that is obscene).  In an age where everyone has access to the internet....WHY ON EARTH DO WE HAVE POLITICAL RALLIES where the candidates say the same boring thing TIME AFTER TIME?  The only people who go to political rallies are people who are so jazzed up about THAT candidate.....they are going to vote ANYWAY....no matter what.

In an internet age.....I think we could trim that down by about 75%....and that money could do a LOT BETTER JOB in (1) job training (2) climate research (3) education (4) military, etc..etc. etc.

Personally.....as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE....I would like to see a "cap" on spending (for ALL political races). 

2)  The "bonuses" that the army paid to people to re-enlist that are now a controversy....were $25 million.....OR......1/60th of what they spent on the presidential campaign. Or....here's $125 million we could have saved and instead used it to pay the bonus 5 times over:

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2014/12/18/congress-again-buys-abrams-tanks-the-army-doesnt-want.html (http://www.military.com/daily-news/2014/12/18/congress-again-buys-abrams-tanks-the-army-doesnt-want.html)

The "conservative party" (Republicans) have become a JOKE because they AREN'T FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE AT ALL.


Sorry for the RANDOM RANT....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: solartim27 on October 26, 2016, 05:07:03 PM
It depends on what happens with "events".  Middle east?  China?  Russia?  Wiki?  Stock market?  Remember...we're trying to figure out what OTHERS are going to do.  So it is hard to predict what OTHERS' reaction to news is going to be.
About 40% of people (make that voters) will vote before Nov 8, many have already, so future events are not as critical.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 26, 2016, 05:38:02 PM
About 40% of people (make that voters) will vote before Nov 8, many have already, so future events are not as critical.

It's still early.  About 10 million people have voted so far.....out of about 127 million.  The next week should increase that substantially.....but there is still a LOT OF TIME...and a LOT OF VOTES yet to be cast.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 26, 2016, 05:57:55 PM
  . . .
Personally.....as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE....I would like to see a "cap" on spending (for ALL political races). 
. . .

You're right, of course.  The American election system is insane.  This actually does have implications for global warming.  When those with money get massively disproportionate political influence in a nation, policy becomes ossified, and positive change is hampered by policy inertia.  Big Oil is fairly certain to have a longer run of influence in the US than most other nations. 

Unfortunately, no mere law can now change this.  Thanks to the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, the "Citizens United" decision means that the wealthy have a constitutional right to spend as much as they want, independently of political parties, to influence election outcomes.  Only a new Supreme Court decision reversing that judgment can now correct the situation.

Which means that there's a lot more riding on this election than just 4 or 8 years of more inertia.  Trump and the Republicans want to preserve the Citizens United decision, because they tend to benefit more from big money.  Trump would nominate justices accordingly.  Justices serve for life, so the next President will influence the political climate for DECADES.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 26, 2016, 06:24:12 PM
Which means that there's a lot more riding on this election than just 4 or 8 years of more inertia.  Trump and the Republicans want to preserve the Citizens United decision, because they tend to benefit more from big money.  Trump would nominate justices accordingly.  Justices serve for life, so the next President will influence the political climate for DECADES.

Absolutely.  The Supreme Court makeup.....and global warming....are the two biggest issues riding on this election.  There will be at least 2 justices confirmed over the next 4 years...and maybe more.  Right now....the split is 4:4.  So with the one vacant seat.....plus with Ginsberg likely to retire soon....the split will be 5:4 in favor of "the leftish".

And yes....Citizens United is a HUGE deal....and I would LOVE to see the Supreme Court reverse their stance in the coming years.

BIG ELECTION....WITH HUGE STAKES.... 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 27, 2016, 12:30:47 AM
While polls can be biased or plan wrong; nevertheless, per the linked website, & associated image, the New York Times gives Hillary a 92% chance of winning as of Oct 26 2016:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0)

That said, if Hillary wins, the US House of Representative may not fill the 9th Supreme Court seat during her term in office.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 12:44:58 AM
That said, if Hillary wins, the US House of Representative may not fill the 9th Supreme Court seat during her term in office.

ASLR: The Senate is responsible for advise and consent on Supreme Court nominees as well as Circuit court of appeals nominees, not the House of Representatives. Here's hoping that the Democrats get a majority in the Senate so Supreme Court nominees get a shot at an up or down vote.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 12:51:19 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/index.html)

"Early voting numbers show Clinton's strength in Arizona, other battlegrounds".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 27, 2016, 12:57:02 AM
ASLR: The Senate is responsible for advise and consent on Supreme Court nominees as well as Circuit court of appeals nominees, not the House of Representatives. Here's hoping that the Democrats get a majority in the Senate so Supreme Court nominees get a shot at an up or down vote.

You are correct.  But who knows, if the current Republican U.S. Senate does not confirm Merrick Garland before Hillary takes office (see below), she might withdraw Garland's nomination & nominate a more liberal justice:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/26/cruz-says-theres-precedent-for-keeping-ninth-supreme-court-seat-empty/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/26/cruz-says-theres-precedent-for-keeping-ninth-supreme-court-seat-empty/)

Extract: "Speaking to reporters after a campaign rally for a Republican U.S. Senate candidate here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) said that there was “precedent” for a Supreme Court with fewer than nine justices — appearing to suggest that the blockade on nominee Merrick Garland could last past the election.

“You know, I think there will be plenty of time for debate on that issue,” said Cruz, when he was asked whether a Republican-controlled Senate should hold votes on a President Hillary Clinton’s nominees. “There is certainly long historical precedent for a Supreme Court with fewer justices. I would note, just recently, that Justice Breyer observed that the vacancy is not impacting the ability of the court to do its job. That’s a debate that we are going to have.”"
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 01:17:30 AM
I was about to post the same article myself ASLR. It seems unimaginable that either party would hold back on any Court nominee for four years.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 27, 2016, 02:06:47 AM
I'm one of the 10 million (or whatever) who has voted early.  Now, if I should die unexpected, I'll die content (or something like that).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 06:23:55 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-fundraising_us_5810fd90e4b0390e69cdd84d (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-fundraising_us_5810fd90e4b0390e69cdd84d)

"Thanks to Trump, RNC is in a bad financial position heading into the general election".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 06:26:38 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-leading-polls_us_58112308e4b064e1b4b05ce5 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-leading-polls_us_58112308e4b064e1b4b05ce5)

"The polls -All of them- show Hillary Clinton leading".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 02:43:26 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/it%E2%80%99ll-get-worse-after-the-election/ar-AAjm6D3?ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/it%E2%80%99ll-get-worse-after-the-election/ar-AAjm6D3?ocid=spartandhp)

Article from the Daily Beast, by Jeff Greenfield. "It'll get worse after the election".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 02:47:01 PM
http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/27/feds-concerned-about-risk-of-violence-as-election-day-nears/21592536/ (http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/27/feds-concerned-about-risk-of-violence-as-election-day-nears/21592536/)

Extract: Trump supporters held up Clinton "target practice" posters at a rally in Florida Monday, with a bulls-eye framing her face.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 02:57:21 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/harry-reid-senate-gop-supreme-court_us_58114f13e4b0390e69ce2f56?vuxm94v8lp9hzuayvi (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/harry-reid-senate-gop-supreme-court_us_58114f13e4b0390e69ce2f56?vuxm94v8lp9hzuayvi)

"Harry Reid warns of "Constitutional Crisis" if Democrats don't win back the Senate".

By Marina Fang.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 27, 2016, 03:01:14 PM
You over there might not find this interesting but I did. Lisbeth Åkerman from our national televison made a series of short documentaries from five different cities in the US, where she talks with cab-drivers about the election.
http://www.svtplay.se/video/10765111/lisbeth-tar-taxi/lisbeth-tar-taxi-avsnitt-1 (http://www.svtplay.se/video/10765111/lisbeth-tar-taxi/lisbeth-tar-taxi-avsnitt-1)
I thought there would only be four episodes, but now there's eight.

Unsurprisingly there's nothing about the most important issue, but the last guy in episode eight (Avsnitt 8 ) actually has a point with voting for Clinton.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 27, 2016, 03:18:14 PM
A REALLY nice round of state polls out this morning for Clinton (plus a good national poll from NBC/Wall Street Journal):

Pennsylvania 46/39 in favor of Clinton
Florida 43/39 in favor of Clinton
Michigan 41/34 in favor of Clinton
New Hampshire 43/38 in favor of Clinton

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/ (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/)

The Pennsylvania and Florida polls are especially "pleasing".  12 more days....... ;D
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 27, 2016, 03:45:25 PM
Here's an ESPECIALLY NICE "take down" of Newt Gingrich by Republican strategist Anna Navarro:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/anderson-cooper-cant-believe-newt-gingrichs-latest-nonsense_us_5811a5b2e4b0990edc2f3a0b (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/anderson-cooper-cant-believe-newt-gingrichs-latest-nonsense_us_5811a5b2e4b0990edc2f3a0b)

You are who you surround yourself by:  Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christi, and Roger Ailes.   When you add in Trump....that is kind of the "all-stars of stench."

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 27, 2016, 04:46:00 PM
Yale...as a 503(c)(3) not-for-profit.....takes their tax status SERIOUSLY.  So they don't endorse EITHER candidate (explicitly).  However.....read the "non endorsement"....it's the best non-endorsement Clinton has received:

http://yalerecord.org/2016/10/26/the-yale-record-does-not-endorse-hillary-clinton/ (http://yalerecord.org/2016/10/26/the-yale-record-does-not-endorse-hillary-clinton/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 27, 2016, 06:26:27 PM
Early voting in Texas is HEAVY so far.  Here are a few paragraphs copied from the article link at the bottom of the page.  I STILL DON'T think Texas could possibly go "blue".....but....could this be the "attack of the bad hombres?"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On October 25th, the second day of 2016 early voting, an additional 600,000 people voted, bringing the total so far up to 987,000, or ten percent of the state’s voting population. This is an increase of roughly 342,000 votes from the second day of early voting in 2012, and by that point four years ago, only seven percent of the state’s population had cast a ballot. Texas has not yet released its numbers for October 26th.

Of the 15 counties for which early voting information has been made available, the average county has seen an increase of votes cast of 53.9 percent. The state does not release information about how many Democrats and Republicans voted. But there are seven counties where the spike is higher than the average of 53 percent, and of those seven counties, five voted for Barack Obama in 2012. Of the counties that voted for Obama in 2012, there has been an average increased number of votes of 64.7 percent, but of the counties that went for Mitt Romney, the average increase has been 44.5 percent. This all suggests that Texas Democrats may be much more enthusiastic than usual this year.

By far the biggest spike has been in Travis County, which is extremely Democratic and which voted for Barack Obama in 2012. Travis County has seen an increased number of votes of 119 percent, with about 46,000 more people voting early there than did by this point in 2012.

http://heavy.com/news/2016/10/texas-early-voting-results-turnout-by-county-2016-polling-hours-places-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-democratic-republican/ (http://heavy.com/news/2016/10/texas-early-voting-results-turnout-by-county-2016-polling-hours-places-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-democratic-republican/)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 27, 2016, 08:28:41 PM
Sound familiar?  Here is New Gingrich back in 2012 right before that election:  "Two parallel universe's.  I predict Romney in a landslide."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yK7LJGkeSsM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yK7LJGkeSsM)

Newt is full of so much BULL.........
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 28, 2016, 06:19:52 AM
Here's another one to sue after the election for T rump:
http://www.iltasanomat.fi/viihde/art-2000001939677.html (http://www.iltasanomat.fi/viihde/art-2000001939677.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 28, 2016, 06:31:06 AM
Unsurprisingly there's nothing about the most important issue, but the last guy in episode eight (Avsnitt 8 ) actually has a point with voting for Clinton.


Enjoyed the videos Sleepy, thanks. Trump stated today that the election should be cancelled and he should be declared the winner. I'm wondering what title would best fit our new leader if his wish was granted; Il Duce, Generalissimo, Der Fuehrer? Any suggestions?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/donald-trump-cancel-election/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/donald-trump-cancel-election/index.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 28, 2016, 06:56:45 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/republicans-split-supreme-court-vacancy-230395 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/republicans-split-supreme-court-vacancy-230395)

"Republicans at war over Supreme Court".

"Senate Republicans are girding for a brutal conflict over how to handle the lingering Supreme Court vacancy".

Senator Jeff Flake, a conservative Republican, is being remarkably pragmatic. If he's not careful, other conservatives will end up labeling him a RINO (Republican in name only). He refuses to endorse Trump and is now pushing back on Ted Cruz's and other Republicans attempt at delaying court appointments in a likely Clinton presidency.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 28, 2016, 08:01:42 AM
Unsurprisingly there's nothing about the most important issue, but the last guy in episode eight (Avsnitt 8 ) actually has a point with voting for Clinton.


Enjoyed the videos Sleepy, thanks. Trump stated today that the election should be cancelled and he should be declared the winner. I'm wondering what title would best fit our new leader if his wish was granted; Il Duce, Generalissimo, Der Fuehrer? Any suggestions?

[url]http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/donald-trump-cancel-election/index.html[/url] ([url]http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/donald-trump-cancel-election/index.html[/url])

A more present suggestion might be; Dear Leader?
The meaning of Caring, is unknown to both.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 28, 2016, 08:18:32 AM
LOL! Kim Jong Un looks like he could use another cheeseburger or two. Better yet, add an extra large order of fries with that order. Okay, "Dear Leader" is duly added, any other suggestions for his excellency, the Donald?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 28, 2016, 12:50:03 PM
Looks like "The Donald" is pushing business.....or at least INVOICES.....to his businesses.  I would suspect this would be an auditor's nightmare.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-campaign-hotels_us_5812c0b4e4b064e1b4b18c7a (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-campaign-hotels_us_5812c0b4e4b064e1b4b18c7a)

I'm sure that if there is ANY "mixed use" (ie part hotel related.....and part campaign related) the bill is invoiced to the campaign.

And this is likely how his total campaign has been run.  For all we know...Trump has MADE MONEY on "renting" his jet to his campaign.  Great deal....yes.  Except if you were the unwitting donor to his campaign.....and didn't really want your donation going to an INFLATED "jet expense".

And his monthly invoice to the campaign for "office space" in the Trump Tower?  That goes straight to the bottom line of his office building.  That was space that COULDN'T be rented out....and per a report I saw....he is vastly overcharging for that space, and has been his whole campaign.

So when you hear that Donald Trump has contributed $60 million to his campaign.....don't believe it.  He will try to milk this to the very end.......and beyond.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 28, 2016, 03:16:08 PM
Economic "dagger to the heart" of Republicans today.  The third quarter (July/Aug/Sept) US Gross Domestic Product was just announced.  It was 2.9%.....which is greater than the "expected" 2.6%....and much better than growth over the last year or more of just over 1%.  Strongest growth since 2013.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-2-9-in-third-quarter-1477657992 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-2-9-in-third-quarter-1477657992)

That....will be good news on the campaign trail for the next week.  There is one more "significant" economic report that will come out next Friday....and that is the "October Jobs Report".....but probably half the country will have already voted....so that last report is unlikely to move the needle EITHER WAY.

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 28, 2016, 03:23:34 PM
Clinton now needs to make sure she "buttons up" Pennsylvania.  That is one to watch closely over the next 10 days.  As long as she takes Pennsylvania and North Carolina....then she will be fine.  But she HAS to take Pennsylvania.

The popular vote difference is now 5.7% and I expect that to "tighten" into the 4% - 5% range in the next 10 days.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 28, 2016, 04:12:02 PM
Saw that T rump used Michael Moore's new film as propaganda in a tweet. I still can't comprehend that, is he aware that the year is 2016? Here's Moore's reply:
https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/791828594809008128 (https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/791828594809008128)

http://youtu.be/sVLTQIUMq18 (http://youtu.be/sVLTQIUMq18)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 28, 2016, 05:02:07 PM
Economic "dagger to the heart" of Republicans today.  The third quarter (July/Aug/Sept) US Gross Domestic Product was just announced.  It was 2.9%.....which is greater than the "expected" 2.6%....and much better than growth over the last year or more of just over 1%.  Strongest growth since 2013.

One other thing to note on "economic news"....is that we are now nearing the end of "year 8 of Obamageddon".

Some of you may remember back during Obama's candidacy that there were those who predicted "financial Armageddon".  Well....that certainly didn't happen.

But we have had almost 8 years of FOX saying how HORRIBLE THINGS ARE.  Remember when FOX said how WONDERFUL things were during the Bush administration?

Well....there is good news.  Because while FOX has been trying to convince everyone who watches them how horrible the economy is......that causes their viewers to be VERY CAUTIOUS with their spending.....and likely save more than they would otherwise.....and pay down debt.  But that won't continue to happen as long as the economy continues to heal and grow.

So now we find ourselves HERE:

1)  An economy that looks like it is starting to grow stronger (2.9% GDP last quarter)
2)  5% unemployment
3)  Wages starting to rise more for middle income earners
4)  Everyone has apparently survived the "Obama years" and Armageddon didn't happen
5)  Energy costs remain low...and renewable costs continue to DROP LIKE A STONE....which will be good for everyone's pocket book's.....in essence a continued tax break.
6)  AND....as long as that old grumpy man...Trump....doesn't win (it aint over till it's over)....a DARK CLOUD has been removed from the horizon of everyone's psyche.

So FOX News may have done Clinton a big favor over the past 8 years:  Create fear in their viewers minds so they don't spend as much.  Because eventually.....they will start to spend their growing bank accounts.  And millennial's are starting to leave their parents houses and gain more confidence.  Fundamentals EVENTUALLY win out.

"Animal spirits" COULD be on Clinton's side in the coming year or two.  We'll find out soon enough.  The two big issues to deal with in MY MIND....are (1) Citizens United (she needs to get that to the Supreme court WITHIN 2 years), and (2) global warming.

 




Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 28, 2016, 06:05:24 PM
I hope you're right Buddy. From Politico: "GOP insiders say polls don't capture secret Trump vote".

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-shy-voters-polls-gop-insiders-230411 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-shy-voters-polls-gop-insiders-230411)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 28, 2016, 06:23:54 PM
Saw that T rump used Michael Moore's new film as propaganda in a tweet.

I like Michael Moore, and his assertions in this video are accurate. He does engage in hyperbole near the end by stating if Trump becomes President, he could be our country's last President.

There are "checks and balances" that would render President Trump ineffective at best. Trump would likely face impeachment or at the very least, would not get reelected. His faithful followers will quickly become disillusioned and his poll numbers will drop further than they did for George W. Bush.

I think our country can withstand four years of "lunacy" in the White House, but I hope it doesn't have to!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 28, 2016, 06:26:18 PM
I hope you're right Buddy. From Politico: "GOP insiders say polls don't capture secret Trump vote".

It's NOT me that is going to be "right" or "wrong".  It will be Nate....and his statistical wizardry.  And the more it tightens....the more it can go EITHER WAY.

Ten days left...  And as I said before..."it ain't over till it's over."  We'll see how tight it is on November 8th.

I will be fascinated to see the "after the elections" dissection of what happened (whoever wins):

1)  Breakdown of vote by gender
2)  Breakdown of vote by age group
3)  Breakdown of vote by race
4)  What was the vote in Texas....did Clinton REALLY come within 3% of wining or did she get beat by 8% or more.
5)  What was the vote in Arizona.  Can that REALLY turn blue in coming elections.

In a divorce there is always 3 sides to the story:  His side....her side....and the truth.  And the same goes for political campaigns.  We are soon coming upon the day when we will know the truth of how the vote was diced up.....who won AND WHY.

The NEXT senate elections in two years will be BRUTAL for the Democrat's.  Here is a map of the seats that are UP for election.  All those blue states.....are current DEMOCRAT's that are up for election.  And you can see that not many Republican seats come up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

IF Hillary is fortunate enough to win....she better get her butt in gear.  Because even if she has a senate majority in 2016......SHE WON'T HAVE MAJORITY AFTER THE 2018 election.







Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 28, 2016, 07:08:11 PM
Here is the BEST ARTICLE.....BY FAR....about the 2016 election.  And I agree TOTALLY with his conclusion about BOTH FOX and CNN:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-york-times-editor-cnn-fox-news_us_58135442e4b0990edc3065ca (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-york-times-editor-cnn-fox-news_us_58135442e4b0990edc3065ca)

The media REALLY "screwed the pooch" in this election cycle.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 28, 2016, 08:14:47 PM
Like I said....."it's never over till it's over."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-email-stocks_us_58138ae0e4b0390e69cfd986 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-email-stocks_us_58138ae0e4b0390e69cfd986)

Much ado about nothing.....or is their meat on the bone?  I would assume we would find out something over the next week.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 28, 2016, 09:06:59 PM
Like I said....."it's never over till it's over."


I was about to post the same article. Although I hate to see it happen now, we might as well get to the bottom of it sooner rather than later. This could get UGLY!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 28, 2016, 09:27:58 PM
I think our country can withstand four years of "lunacy" in the White House, but I hope it doesn't have to!

He's saying:
MICHAEL MOORE: What I'm saying is if we elect Donald Trump as president of this country, it won't be the same country after four years. I'm absolutely convinced of that. This is the most vile, disgusting candidate that has ever run for office in this country.


Personally I'm thinking more about the rest of the world and how a president like him would affect those who really hate the US and have done so for a very long time. Apart from climate change you have another undiscussed and unsolved issue:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/afghanistan-is-the-dirty-little-secret-of-the-us-presidential-campaign (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/afghanistan-is-the-dirty-little-secret-of-the-us-presidential-campaign)

This isn't the documentary I was thinking about (that one was aired on our national TV several years ago and I couldn't find it) but it shows more or less the same, how some people are raising their kids:
http://youtu.be/pYfBeeUzVME (http://youtu.be/pYfBeeUzVME)
It's a mess.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 28, 2016, 09:47:26 PM
Personally I'm thinking more about the rest of the world and how a president like him would affect those who really hate the US and have done so for a very long time.

ABSOLUTELY AGREE.  He would do LONG LASTING damage to relationships abroad.  He has ZERO...ZIPPO...NADDA.....credibility with foreign leaders.  NONE.

And he has a HORRIBLE "decision making process":

A)  Don't talk to experts in the field (scientists, generals, etc)
B)  FIRE
C)  READY
D)  AIM
E)  Now.....let's pick up the pieces.

I don't think the current issue will be a big deal...I really don't.  But we'll see....


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 29, 2016, 06:55:38 AM
I think our country can withstand four years of "lunacy" in the White House, but I hope it doesn't have to!


Personally I'm thinking more about the rest of the world and how a president like him would affect those who really hate the US and have done so for a very long time. Apart from climate change you have another undiscussed and unsolved issue:

 ([url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/afghanistan-is-the-dirty-little-secret-of-the-us-presidential-campaign[/url])


Sleepy: It wasn't my intention to come across in a callous or cavalier way with my response to your post, so I apologize if that's how it sounded. I read the linked article above, but was unable to watch the video, something about it not being available.

I agree with your concerns about a Trump presidency and the potential damage it will cause. I also agree with Michael Moore about Trump being the most vile and disgusting candidate for President ever. The only point of disagreement I have with Moore is that there will be another election four years from now and there will be future Presidents, (hopefully much better choices than we now have).

Yes, there are countries out there that hate the US as well as Europe. They'll hate us no matter who is elected President. The only way these Islamic countries wont hate us is if we all convert to Islam en masse.

As far as what to do with Afghanistan, all I can say is they have to stand on their own at some point. We all know that invading Iraq in 2003 ended up with the U.S. diverting resources and troops away from Afghanistan. If the focus had remained on Afghanistan alone, maybe the outcome would have been far better, but that's in the past. As to what to do now, what would you suggest? Is the EU willing to commit funds and resources necessary to solve the Afghan problem in conjunction with a renewed U.S. commitment to do the same?

Even if the EU and the U.S. did, would it provide a long term solution and bring peace and prosperity to Afghanistan? I have my doubts. Unfortunately, the FBI has reopened the Clinton email probe based on what seems on the surface to be dubious reasons. This obviously casts doubt on the outcome of our presidential election and increases the chances for a Trump presidency. I have included two articles on the subject.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/28/politics/fbi-reviewing-new-emails-in-clinton-probe-director-tells-senate-judiciary-committee/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/28/politics/fbi-reviewing-new-emails-in-clinton-probe-director-tells-senate-judiciary-committee/index.html)

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/fbi-clinton-new-probe-trump-hails-230460 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/fbi-clinton-new-probe-trump-hails-230460)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 29, 2016, 07:04:44 AM
[/b]
I don't think the current issue will be a big deal...I really don't.  But we'll see....

Whether it is a big deal or not, Trump and the Republicans are making it a big deal. IMO, if Clinton still manages to win it will be by a thinner margin. I never was a fan of early voting (just old fashioned I guess), but I'm glad that several million have already voted.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 29, 2016, 11:10:36 AM
budmantis, no need for apologies.

To both: I'm really surprised that you can't watch the video, you really should. It works here. Afghanistan is a mess, a mess that both my country and yours, are trying to ignore. I think it is a big deal. No matter who wins the election.

Afghanistan can't stand on it's own, ordinary people are fed up with the talibans, isis and even their own military, it's the wild west on steroids. Isis sees them all as infidels and targets. They are educating their kids to kill, using the US as the face of evil. If that should be lead by Mr Trump, who knows what will explode?

I believe education is the name of the game since it's a live topic, or as we say here, a perishable. My own poor english skills almost evaporated over a decade, simply beacuse I didn't use it. After two years on this forum it's a bit better, but I'm not always able to express myself well enough.

An uneducated human beeing is dangerous. Our collective future and civilisation on this planet relies on education and educated human beeings.

A recent article from HRW:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/04/why-afghanistan-needs-swedens-attention (https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/04/why-afghanistan-needs-swedens-attention)

Ah well, add the reality of AGW, the Arctic right now with record low extent (sub 15k increase today) and a record early PV-split, together with the prospects of a winter with low AO thanks to low sea ice in Barents and Kara. At the same time I'm watching a uneducated denier running for president. It's absurd.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 29, 2016, 01:02:50 PM
Sleepy: Tried to watch that video again. The message I get is: "the uploader has not made this video available in your country". I'll try YouTube directly. Found it, titled: "ISIS and the Taliban".

You refer to Trump as an uneducated denier. I agree with you. I think what worries me even more than that, is 40% (approx.) of voters, perhaps more are actually going to vote for this idiot. I'll watch that video sometime today or tonight.

"Ha en bra dag"!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 29, 2016, 01:33:14 PM
An uneducated human beeing is dangerous. Our collective future and civilisation on this planet relies on education and educated human beings.

No kidding.  Here in the US....it is a HUGE issue....as it is everywhere else.

Democracy can't do well unless you have an educated society.  And I DON'T mean "college educated" (college is OVERSOLD in my opinion).  There ARE things that we DEFNITELY NEED COLLEGE (scientists....engineers....accountants...physicians....etc).

But we need to teach people HOW TO THINK.....HOW TO PROBLEM SOLVE......HOW TO DO BASIC RESEARCH OF ISSUES.....HOW TO LOOK FOR THE TRUTH AND NOT GET SIDELINED BY BIAS....HOW TO QUESTION.....HOW TO BE TRULY SKEPTICAL.  It is really "basic stuff".....but it is stuff MANY PEOPLE don't have...and they have NOT been taught in school.

Remember.....we only do two things during our WAKING HOURS:  (1)  Make decisions, and (2) execute on decisions.  You would THINK that maybe we should learn HOW TO MAKE DECISIONS (ie how to research, how to ask questions, how to be skeptical, who do we bring into the decision making process, etc).

It ISN'T as complicated as it may sound.  It is basic stuff.  But just like basic carpentry or basic electrical work......WE HAVE TO BE TAUGHT FIRST.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on October 30, 2016, 09:58:21 AM
Sleepy: Tried to watch that video again. The message I get is: "the uploader has not made this video available in your country". I'll try YouTube directly. Found it, titled: "ISIS and the Taliban".

You refer to Trump as an uneducated denier. I agree with you. I think what worries me even more than that, is 40% (approx.) of voters, perhaps more are actually going to vote for this idiot. I'll watch that video sometime today or tonight.

"Ha en bra dag"!

Hmm, why would Al Jazeera want to restrict viewing in the US? There are some odd conspiratory thoughts about foreigners expressed in the video, but it was the picture of how they bring up their young ones that disgusts me, that's similar to the Talibans (the other video that I mentioned above). ISIL is the same as IS, ISIS or Daesh. Internet today is becoming ugly with search engines providing everything you already has searched for. I'm more interested in the things I've not yet heard of, or understood. That's why I also use different search engines, like ixquick.

Thanks for the greeting in Swedish, I only wish all of you would use that language!  ;D
Spent yesterday freezing my ass off while servicing a car and changing to winter tyres.  :P

Buddy, yes it is basic. I guess basic isn't popular enough. :(
Here they have tried to reform our elemetary for twenty years. It's a lot worse now, especially in the lower grades and the result is that a lot of kids leave the 9:th grade of elementary without basic skills in Swedish and math. Finland did not = they now have better results than Sweden and at a much lower cost for the lower grades. They stuck to basics in the lower grades and spend more money on the higher grades.
All of my kids have lost interest in learning when starting school. :( It's up to the parents nowadays and that is also visible in the statistics, those who have parents that actively support their kids automagically also have kids that do well.

Enough OT from me, here are some voices from your young one's, that gives me a positive feeling for the future:
http://mashable.com/2016/10/29/teenage-views-2016-campaign/ (http://mashable.com/2016/10/29/teenage-views-2016-campaign/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on October 31, 2016, 05:23:08 AM
Was surprised to see this article. Although former Republican congressman Joe Walsh wants Trump to win, even he says James Comey's actions on Friday re: the emails was wrong.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/joe-walsh-james-comey_us_58169c33e4b064e1b4b32319 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/joe-walsh-james-comey_us_58169c33e4b064e1b4b32319)

Joe Walsh was the person who shouted "you lie" during Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress back in 2009.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/10/obama.heckled.speech/index.html?_s=PM:POLITICS (http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/10/obama.heckled.speech/index.html?_s=PM:POLITICS)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on October 31, 2016, 04:17:00 PM
A couple of notes....:

1) Are we having fun yet :)  Only seven more days of fun....

2)  http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/may/12/john-garamendi/prior-benghazi-were-there-13-attacks-embassies-and/ (http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/may/12/john-garamendi/prior-benghazi-were-there-13-attacks-embassies-and/)

3)  No matter WHO WINS....just remember the words of Albert Einstein:

"The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those watch them without doing anything."  Albert Einstein....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: johnm33 on November 01, 2016, 12:51:17 PM
I read the Clintons have splashed out on an estate in the Maldives, none of which rises more than 2.5m above sea level ???
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 01, 2016, 02:15:28 PM
States to watch:

1)  Pennsylvania (almost a must have for Clinton)
2)  New Hampshire (tough to see this not going to Clinton as well)
3)  Virginia (tough to see how this doesn't go to Clinton)
4)  North Carolina....this one will be close

If she takes those 4 states.....then I will sleep well....and hopefully be in bed before midnight.

If she doesn't take North Carolina.....but takes the other 3......her "fall back position" is Colorado.  If she then takes Colorado but not North Carolina...then she is good.

If she doesn't take North Carolina AND she doesn't take Colorado.....then she needs to take Nevada AND the 1 other Maine electoral vote in the second district.

I've already voted....but I don't expect Georgia to go her way....but she may get within 3 - 5%.  I expect Ohio and Iowa to go to Trump....as well as Arizona.  Texas...will go to Trump, but it will be interesting to see how close that one gets (much like Georgia).

Weather is expected to be good and warm for almost the whole country:

https://thinkprogress.org/global-warming-election-turnout-7a475cf3d5cd#.d3hbpzkxc

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 01, 2016, 10:51:17 PM
Per the linked article China has called Trump out on climate change:

http://www.salon.com/2016/11/01/when-china-calls-out-donald-trump-on-climate-change-you-know-its-bad/ (http://www.salon.com/2016/11/01/when-china-calls-out-donald-trump-on-climate-change-you-know-its-bad/)

Extract: "China isn’t mincing words: If Donald Trump becomes president, they expect him to do the right thing and uphold the Paris Agreement, the global accord on curbing climate change."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 02, 2016, 01:49:24 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kkk-donald-trump_us_5818d0c8e4b064e1b4b50849 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kkk-donald-trump_us_5818d0c8e4b064e1b4b50849)

"The KKK is working to get out the vote-for Donald Trump if course".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 02, 2016, 02:00:21 AM
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/2016-election-day-chaos-comey-emails-trump-clinton-214409 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/2016-election-day-chaos-comey-emails-trump-clinton-214409)

"How the election could get even crazier on November 9".  By Jeff Greenfield
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 02, 2016, 03:34:20 AM
W :)W.  W :)W.  W :)W

Good news on the polling front.  One poll out tonight has Clinton winning Florida by 8%.  This poll was done of people who had already voted.  28% of Republicans voted for Clinton in the Florida poll. 

Also.....another poll out tonight has her winning Ohio and Florida...but losing North Carolina (Moody anaylitics)

If she is able to win Florida.....its lights out for Trump.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 02, 2016, 05:07:07 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wall-st-losses-election-jitters_us_5818d47be4b064e1b4b50ec2 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wall-st-losses-election-jitters_us_5818d47be4b064e1b4b50ec2)

"Election anxiety pushes global markets off a cliff".

"Investors have been cautious about taking large positions due to mounting uncertainty about next week's election".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on November 02, 2016, 02:46:44 PM
Speaking as a Brit post Brexit, I'm really hoping we don't get another electoral disaster in the USA next week. A Trump presidency looks like a genuine disaster story.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 02, 2016, 02:56:58 PM
Speaking as a Brit post Brexit, I'm really hoping we don't get another electoral disaster in the USA next week. A Trump presidency looks like a genuine disaster story.

I think that (Brexit) was a good "wake up call" for those of us in the states.  I think the voter turnout will be high...and that usually benefits the Democrat's.

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 02, 2016, 03:01:08 PM
If the Latino vote is as strong as they say it has been so far....that bodes well for Clinton in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona (and Texas as well....although not enough to turn it blue).

The Republicans have TWO significant issues on their hands going forward:

1)  The continued growth of the Latino vote
2)  Climate change is a bigger issue among Latino voters than it is white voters

Both those things spell trouble for the Republicans in coming elections UNLESS THEY CHANGE THEIR STANCE.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 02, 2016, 08:11:10 PM

UNLESS THEY CHANGE THEIR STANCE.[/b]

The question is whether Republicans will ever change their stance. I have a feeling that as the white demographic continues to get older and the latinos, blacks and other ethnic groups become a majority at some point, the Republicans are going to find themselves out in the cold. At some point they're going to have to make a course change, or they'll find themselves irrelevant.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 02, 2016, 11:50:22 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616)

This could get ugly.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 03, 2016, 04:39:33 AM
I have a neighbor down the road that is a Trump supporter.  He could care less about facts......reason.....or what is appropriate.  He wants Trump regardless.  He is the kind of guy I could see trying to intimidate folks.

I just don't "get" the whole Trump thing.  Why would anyone be proud to be a biggot?

I guess I have never really witnessed OBVIOUS racism in person.  Something tells me that I will witness it in my neighborhood over the next week or two.

Denmark or Italy are sounding better and better..... :)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on November 03, 2016, 04:02:09 PM
What's up with Nate?

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 03, 2016, 05:22:13 PM
What's up with Nate?

He's a statistical nerd (a good one)....but a statistical nerd.

He changed ONE LETTER in each row....to transition from CUBS....to....TRUMP.   And in each iteration.....the result was AN ACTUAL WORD.    He couldn't do it with CLINTON.....no way to "transition" from CUBS to CLINTON using real words.

The game 7 was a lot like the presidential race.  Clinton got out to a quick lead...only to have Trump tie it.  Then Clinton got out to a bigger lead.....only to have Trump come back again and tie it.  Then Clinton finally wins in the top of the 10th.

I HOPE....that doesn't mean the election is going into "extra innings" as well!!!   Yikkkkkekeessssssss....


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on November 03, 2016, 11:55:52 PM
 ::)


 Your guy Nate has a pretty good sense of humor I believe.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: be cause on November 04, 2016, 01:34:41 AM
Goddess bless America ! :)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 04, 2016, 01:35:28 AM
CUBS
CABS
CANS
CANT
CANTO
CANTON
CLANTON
CLINTON


Couldn't resist.


Terry
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 04, 2016, 04:22:44 AM
Terry...

OK.....you too are nerdy😁

I stand corrected. Well done...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 04, 2016, 04:31:29 AM
I guess the big news on the campaign trail is that Melania Trump will be taking on cyber bullying when Donald takes the throne.  Sssssshhhhhhhhhh I don't want anyone to tell her who her first target is going to be.  We'll keep it a surprise🙀
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: be cause on November 04, 2016, 09:54:37 AM
shortened version ..

CUBS
CLUB
CLINTON
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 04, 2016, 02:41:30 PM
The last monthly jobs report before the election is out in the US today....and yes....more good news on the jobs front.

1)  Added 161,000 new jobs in October
2)  Unemployment rate down to 4.9%
3)  Adjusted UP the prior September jobs to 191,000 from 156,000
4)  Wages increasing at 2.7% annual rate
5)  Hispanic unemployment down .7% to 5.7%

Very good news on the jobs front.  And...if you take a look at the graph....Obama took office in late January of 2009...and you can see the progress that has been made.

(https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CgwLUmWlEu0/WByBZL3kVlI/AAAAAAAApRU/LBUBhBG1zoQwNwnN2_E9RIVNW3YehcOQgCLcB/s1600/PayrollOct2016.PNG)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 04, 2016, 04:02:16 PM
How will I sleep this weekend?  Pretty well.  Not GREAT....but pretty good:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

Also....with the economic numbers on jobs....that is good news as well.

Plus...Nevada looks good....and Florida looks good due to the EXTREMELY high number of Hispanics that have participated in early voting so far.  Just a hunch....they 'aint voting for Trump.   ;)

It is still "winnable" by Trump.....polls are only EDUCATED GUESSES.  We will know a lot more Tuesday night during the first round of states reporting:

1)  Pennsylvania
2)  North Carolina
3)  Florida
4)  New Hampshire

Those will tell me how much sleep I will get....or won't get....on Tuesday night.  Whether it will be an early night or a late night.



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 04, 2016, 09:54:21 PM
There may be a better chance of Clinton taking Florida than I had previously thought.

In 2012 here is the breakdown of the EARLY VOTING 1 week before election day:

Whites 74%
Blacks 13%
Latino's 10%

Now....in 2016...also 1 week from election day.....here is the breakdown:

Whites 70%
Blacks  11%
Latino's 14%

The above doesn't ASSURE anything....but it certainly "leans left"...especially in Florida.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on November 04, 2016, 10:31:08 PM
No idea (as I am from UK) about the leaning if any of the authors - but this seems relevant to the Arctic Sea Ice and scary !

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-zero-out-federal-clean-energy-56cca794790#.7j5kl9a20
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on November 05, 2016, 09:25:00 AM
I'll be closing this poll on Monday 7th. If anyone wants to change their entry, I suggest doing so now.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on November 05, 2016, 10:48:03 AM
is it opened up for non-US now? - or should we do a separate snap poll for the rest/everyone?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 05, 2016, 04:49:51 PM
Not beeing able to vote for real is what disturbs me.

Don’t make a choice that your children will regret
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/11/dont-make-a-choice-that-your-children-will-regret/ (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/11/dont-make-a-choice-that-your-children-will-regret/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on November 05, 2016, 10:15:25 PM
Clinton just basically won NV, and therefore, probably the election.

Early voting there, which ended today, went so overwhelmingly her way (due largely to high Latino turn out), that experts say there is basically no way for Trump to catch up.

Going into this thing, he needed to get every single swing state plus a big or many small states that have been leaning toward Clinton.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 06, 2016, 12:45:58 AM
Clinton just basically won NV, and therefore, probably the election.

Not so fast my friend.  It aint over till its over.  And of the polls I have seen.....Nevada is NO SLAM DUNK.

Yea....I know....early voting...yadi..yadi....ya.

Let's HOPE it holds.

Clinton needs to HOLD Pennsylvania.  Remember when I said it was a key?  Still is.

As long as she holds Pennsylvania.....AND doesn't lose Michigan.  Then she needs to take EITHER New Hampshire AND the 1 oddball Maine electoral vote.....OR.....she also needs to take Nevada (also assuming she HOLD Colorado).

She could also take Florida....and that would certainly do it.  OR....North Carolina.

There are still 3 days....and Trump and his band of liars will DO ANYTHING (in combination with FOX News......nice shout out to Bret Baier for crappy pseudo journalism....what a HACK).

Now maybe you understand:  "FOX News:  The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

It's true....all they are....are hacks.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 06, 2016, 04:10:26 PM
Thank God I don't have to vote on this one.  ;)

I wish I could say the same, but I'll vote for Hillary.

Until the last week, I was willing to vote (reluctantly) for Clinton. Now I'm not so sure. I'm thinking of switching my vote to "none of the above".

Voting for Johnson or Stein, or writing in another name is nothing more than a protest vote, IMHO. Trump will not get my vote, which leaves Hillary Clinton. I think back to the nineties when Bill Clinton was in office. He was a good president, but his presidency was beset by controversy and scandal for the entire eight years. A Hillary Clinton presidency in my opinion will be the same, just different controversies and possible scandals.

A second Clinton presidency may be preferable to the alternative, but will it change the political landscape in our country? I don't think so. The Republicans will continue to stonewall in the Congress. There will be further polarization to the right and left.

The only way to repair our dysfunctional system, is a return to the center, a return to civility and bipartisanship. So I ask, what is the quickest way to return to some semblance of a working political system? A Hillary Clinton presidency? I seriously doubt it and when it comes to election day, I'm not sure I'll be able to vote for her. There is no "none of the above" selection on the ballot, but there should be and I think that may be the ultimate protest vote.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 06, 2016, 05:48:17 PM
 Budmantis


Please consider what the Republicans have done to your country, and the world, just this century.


I fear Clinton because of her belligerence re. Russia. If this is your concern then by all means leave a protest vote, but if climate change is of any concern then Clinton must beat Trump.


I moved to California in 1963 and have been "politically aware" ever since. I was there when Kennedy was assassinated and when "W" stole the election from Gore.
Imagine where we would be if we'd had Gore for 2 terms instead of "W".


I have doubts about Hillary, unfortunately I have no doubts what Trump will mean for the world.


Allowing Trump in will NOT improve the political climate & will be a disaster for climate change.


Terry
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 06, 2016, 06:33:42 PM
but if climate change is of any concern then Clinton must beat Trump.

....... I was there when Kennedy was assassinated and when "W" stole the election from Gore.
Imagine where we would be if we'd had Gore for 2 terms instead of "W".

I have doubts about Hillary, unfortunately I have no doubts what Trump will mean for the world.

Allowing Trump in will NOT improve the political climate & will be a disaster for climate change.

TRIPLE DITTO.  I am an Independent....fiscal conservative/social moderate.  I have been an Independent all my life...and always will be.  I have NEVER had such an easy decision to make...EVER.

1.  Climate change:  Clinton
2.  Readiness for the job:  Clinton
3.  Trustworthiness:  Both are rotten....however Trump is rotten to the core:  Clinton
4.  Ability to surround herself with good people in office:  Clinton by a MILE
5.  Temperament:  Clinton

Take a look at the people that Trump has now:

A.  Chris Christie....has 4 people he appointed when he was Governor or New Jersey...just now found guilty.  And Trump KNEW about the issue....but STILL hired Christie.

B.  Roger Ailes.....prior CEO of FOX news.  Need I say more?

C.  Newt Gingrich:  Thrown of the Congress by his own party.  On his third marriage....the first two he cheated on.

D.  Rudy Giuliani:  Rudy worked with FOX News to "break" the fake news release last week (way to go Bret Baier....dishonest journalist).

This isn't even CLOSE....AND I DON'T LIKE CLINTON.....BUT I DESPISE TRUMP. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 06, 2016, 07:36:01 PM
to the point, exactly my thoughts as well if you forgive that i'm swiss :-) but still have an opinion.
the last time i wrote an article about us elections, at that time it was about GWB, it cost me an interrogation at immigration upon my next visit haha....

BTW IMO it will be an avelange victory for HC despite all the BS that the media spill.

i don't believe one jota of that Trump made up almost all that he was behind because of that old and worn out email story and then if that were true, the people who change their opinion so quickly because of nothing new are doubtful to be ready to vote at all, but again, i don't believe those media.

last but not least it's about time to hold media responsible for all the destructive stuff they're writing for decades now, mostly only in the interest of either lobbies and/or some reporters to boost their own carrier.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 06, 2016, 09:57:23 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-comey-congress-emails_us_581f8ff5e4b0aac62485196a (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-comey-congress-emails_us_581f8ff5e4b0aac62485196a)

"Hillary Clinton wont face charges for new e-mails, FBI director tells Congress".

Thanks Terry, Buddy and Magnamentis for your comments. Will post more comments later. Currently flying Southwest back to Florida. Their Wi-Fi sucks!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 07, 2016, 02:49:46 AM
Even with Clinton as President, there will be no movement with climate change legislation, because at best the Senate will be controlled by a small majority of Democrats and the House will remain in the hands of the Republicans.

Because the Republicans are still a force to be reckoned with, it is likely the Senate will have a Republican majority in two years. With Clinton as President, the Democrats will have twelve consecutive years in the white house and as a result, are likely to lose the white house to the Republicans in 2020.

Meanwhile, Clinton will be investigated for various and sundry reasons which will distract from her agenda. Because of all of the aforementioned, I don't believe Clinton will be in a position to help with climate change or any other progressive cause.

OTOH, if Trump gets elected President this year, we are likely to see a Democrat controlled House and Senate in 2018. We are also likely to see a Democrat get elected President in 2020, and hopefully that individual will have a lot fewer skeletons in the closet. There are no guarantees of course, but given the scenario I've just laid out, this country will be in the best possible position to enact climate change and other legislation after the 2020 election.

This doesn't mean that I'm advocating voting for Trump and not voting for Clinton, but at this point, I just don't see how under the circumstances a Clinton presidency will advance the cause we hold dear. It is also why I'm finding it harder to pull the lever for Clinton on Tuesday, even though I probably will anyway.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2016, 03:58:02 AM
...

... So I ask, what is the quickest way to return to some semblance of a working political system? ...

To start, make gerrymandering illegal at state and federal levels.  (Easier said than done!)  "Purple" districts tend to elect relative moderates.  (There are something like 47 of these districts in the US Congress right now, I recall reading recently, out of 435 districts)  When the parties have a large number of moderates, they work with the other side more easily.  Here's a "bright" idea:  require districts in a state to approximate the state's political balance at the time of redistricting (every 10 years), to the extend possible (without significant gerrymandering).   States with strongly polarized populations (e.g. Wyo. or Vt.), with one Representative, might elect an 'extremist', but there would be many more moderates in office who could get things done.

Then provide a civics education to Americans.

To make the change happen fast, some God-awful event would have to happen - Return of Godzilla (or Hal) anyone?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 12:20:32 PM
Even with Clinton as President, there will be no movement with climate change legislation, because at best the Senate will be controlled by a small majority of Democrats and the House will remain in the hands of the Republicans.

So.....you would rather allow "President Trump" the ability to UNWIND 8 YEARS OF PROGESS (Trump has ALREADY SAID he would unwind executive orders on climate change).....and take us BACKWARDS......than to allow President Clinton, the opportunity to take us FORWARDS even though there has been movement OF SOME REPUBLICANS (Lindsay Graham is just one) to help with climate change issues?

Really?

If you want the progress that President Obama has made to be UNWOUND....then you should definitely vote for anyone other than Hillary Clinton.  Because that is EXACTLY what Trump will do.  He will "trash" anything he can related to climate change that Obama has done.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: JayW on November 07, 2016, 12:30:20 PM
A trump presidency?? Just think of how the alt-right, aka racists, will feel emboldened if that dumpster fire is elected.   

And a protest vote, is a vote for trump.  Period.

We can't worry about two years, or four years from now with the prospects of trump looming.  It's hard enough to extrapolate the political climate over the span of months let alone years.   

A trump presidency would by no means guarantee democrats retaking the house or Senate down the line.



Trump would also view his presidency as his right to exact revenge on each and every person who has so much as slighted him.  You know all those mean and horrible people out there, making things up about him.

I can't stand Clinton, but a vote for anyone but her is irresponsible.  Protesting from the inside of a voting booth is pretty weak...


My favorite part is the people who want to "change Washington"  by putting a rich, entitled, white, male, misogynist bigot into office.  Yeah, that'll change things.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 12:31:30 PM
Just a note on weather.  Weather is still expected to be sunny and warmer than usual over most of the country.  The one exception looks to be part of the south around Texas and Louisiana.

That is good news for Clinton.  A stronger turnout benefits the Democrat's.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 12:34:29 PM
My favorite part is the people who want to "change Washington"  by putting a rich, entitled, white, male, misogynist bigot into office.  Yeah, that'll change things.

And....Trump just happened to "be in bed" with the same people he says he is going to change.  Yea....that will happen.  The chance of that happening is about the same chance I have of winning the US Open this year:  NONE.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on November 07, 2016, 01:22:56 PM
Poll locked.

I wonder who that one Trump voter was?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 07, 2016, 01:26:31 PM
Maybe someone who thinks a rapid collapse is better?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 07, 2016, 01:34:17 PM
My guess is some foreigner who's fed up with this
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 01:45:10 PM
And for those of you voting for ECONOMIC REASONS:

GDP grew at 2.9% in the third quarter (July/Aug/Sep).  I expect the economy to continue growing in the 2% - 3% range while much of the world is slowly picking itself up off the mat (particularly Europe and Asia).  The unemployment rate is down to 4.9%.  It was 8.3% at the end of Obama's first full month in office.  THAT...is called progress.  And we need to continue it.

One of the things that could be "unleashed" in the next couple of quarters.....is what is referred to by "behavioral economists" is the "animal spirits."

I think that if Clinton wins.....the "dark cloud of Trump" will be removed.  And that....in COMBINATION with the underlying fundamentals, will propel the economy forward at a reasonable rate over the next year.

If Trump were to win....that would be a big negative, not just in the US....but in Europe as well.  Most (not all) European leaders seem to be much more receptive to Clinton.  And from the reading I have done IN THE STATES....it appears the people of Europe are more receptive to Clinton than Trump.

That "psychological effect" is something that economist Robert Schiller writes about often...and incorporates into his economic forecasts and thinking.

But we REALLY need to get through Tuesday with a Clinton win....so we can rid ourselves of this DARK CLOUD called Trump

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 02:12:15 PM
Here's an interesting article regarding a "harsh" look at fivethirtyeight.com's poll.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_us_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_us_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74)

It's an interesting read....and I always try to keep an open (Independent) mind when I look at things.  For those of you that are "wigged out" or "worried" because of the dropping % for Clinton in the 538.com model...you will likely like this article.

One very good point brought up in the article.....is that models are ONLY as good as their input.  The BIG THINGS that will impact the vote tomorrow are:

1)  Is the % of Hispanic voters in the model correct?
2)  Is the number of black voters in the model correct?
3)  Is the women's voter percentage used in the model correct?
4)  Is the number of non-college educated in the model correct?

As pointed out in the model.....garbage in, garbage out.  So it will be a look at the ACTUAL %'s by "voter group" after the election that will be interesting to me.

There will no doubt be SOME surprises.  Will Michigan go for Trump?  Will Arizona or Georgia go for Clinton?  Will there REALLY be a cascade of Hispanic votes that push Clinton to victory?

Going to be interesting.  By the way...if Trump wins....markets will dip dramatically.  They will recover INTERMEDIATE TERM.....but long term it would not be good.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 02:53:40 PM
Here is where I THINK things will end up after the votes are counted:

307 Clinton
231 Trump

In the "battleground states".....

Clinton takes Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida (VERY CLOSE)....and yes...Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

Trump takes North Carolina (by a whisker), Iowa, Ohio, 1 Maine district, Arizona, Georgia.

Clinton wins popular vote by 4% over Trump.

Gary Johnson receives LESS THAN 5% of popular vote....about 4.3%. 

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 07, 2016, 03:04:41 PM
My guess is some foreigner who's fed up with this
Maybe, there's a lot of people who never get further than this:
(https://s22.postimg.org/f2hqfrk0x/giveadamnprogress.gif)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 07, 2016, 03:20:31 PM
in reality real and groundbreaking improvements evolve mostly from catastrophic events like wars and cruel revolutions but a few things could be done:


there is much more to tell but then in short, hold the guys finally responsible for what they're doing
and what they're NOT doing as announced in their electoral campaings. this will get us rid of all the ridiculous promises as well as it will get us rid of those who brake the rules.

- prohibit lobbyism
- prohibit money flow into campaigns other than a specific amount for all the same paid from taxes
- implement a law-enforcement entity only for civilc servants and polititions
- implement laws that treat political lies as what they are; "fraud"
- plebiscite for every change from published and signed programs
- prison sentences and seizure of the better part of fortunes of those caught in major violations
- prohibition of further political activity including denial of voting rights for those caught in violations
- plebiscite to let the people approve exceptions from anything above
- settings some standards like maximum income, minimum education etc. to make someone
  eligible. with minimum education i don't mean degrees but a minimum number of fields someone
  has some minimum knowledge (a more holistic approach instead of specialization) and the
  practicable way would probably be some kind of exam with unknown tasks form a select and
  widely spread number of topics (i.e. climate, weather, finance, law, health etc. )
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 03:25:40 PM
Here is an add from the CURRENT Republican Governor of Ohio.....John Kasich (this ad was from November 2015 when Kasich was running against Trump):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/24/the-ad-in-which-john-kasichs-campaign-seems-to-compare-donald-trump-to-hitler/?postshare=2001478400764495&tid=ss_fb (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/24/the-ad-in-which-john-kasichs-campaign-seems-to-compare-donald-trump-to-hitler/?postshare=2001478400764495&tid=ss_fb)

Click on the video......it is as direct as can be.  And if you don't think fascism can't come to the US...I'll introduce you to Donald Trump.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: be cause on November 07, 2016, 03:42:54 PM
Magnamentis's suggested rules could all be replaced by the one our good lord left us .. love one another .. so easy yet so hard :)

 Considering their current treatment under Obama, who should the USA's natives vote for ?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 03:55:54 PM
- implement laws that treat political lies as what they are; "fraud"

I agree with most of what you suggest.  My favorite....is the one you suggested above.

We have hundreds of thousands of people in prison for "MINOR SHIT".  Meanwhile....we have people walking the streets that have suggested:

1)  tobacco products are fine......which caused MILLIONS OF DEATHS
2)  global warming is a hoax......which will cost us TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS for waiting to fix it
3)  lead paint is fine....only to find out later it isn't
4)  packaging and selling mortgages that were worthless....costing billions of dollars

As a CIVIILIZED SOCIETY we can't ALLOW people to lie.  VERY SIMPLE.  TELL THE F#####G truth about matters of PUBLIC POLICY or you will be prosecuted.

But think about this:  We also have a FAKE NEWS CHANNEL THAT LIES ON A DAILY BASIS.  In fact....THEY HAVE TRIED TO THROW THE CURRENT ELECTION.

FOX News is not much better than listening to Russian television.  It's a disgrace to democracy.

If we manage to get through this election.......it won't be because of FOX News did any JOURNALISM.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 04:59:19 PM
It's always enlightening to see people LIE or IGNORE FACTS on video.  Here we have "crooked Kellyanne Conway":


https://www.yahoo.com/news/kellyanne-conway-clashes-with-cnn-after-trump-campaign-promotes-false-report-of-assassination-attempt-163224102.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/kellyanne-conway-clashes-with-cnn-after-trump-campaign-promotes-false-report-of-assassination-attempt-163224102.html)


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 07, 2016, 04:59:46 PM
In reference to my reply #391, I'm not surprised at all at the response. Perhaps the scenario I laid out will turnout to be complete B.S., but at least in my mind it is one of the most likely scenarios to occur should Trump win the election, because a Trump victory will turn out to be a big loss for the Republicans going forward.

Now that Clinton has been cleared once again by the FBI, the likelihood of a Trump win has been reduced. I believe his poll numbers have peaked and will probably fall a bit. Trump isn't happy with the FBI's latest finding on Clinton. In light of that, I thought this short article from the Huffington Post was helpful:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/edward-snowden-hillary-clinton-emails_us_581fe27de4b0aac62485334d (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/edward-snowden-hillary-clinton-emails_us_581fe27de4b0aac62485334d)

"Edward Snowden shows just how fast the FBI could read Hillary Clinton's e-mails".

If Clinton does win, I sincerely hope my prediction is wrong and that her Presidency is highly successful.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 07, 2016, 05:18:30 PM
For the almost 30% in this poll who didn't opt for Clinton a short history lesson might be in order.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/05/the-big-con-what-is-really-at-stake-on-election-day (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/05/the-big-con-what-is-really-at-stake-on-election-day)


From The Guardian it's an intriguing look back. Very well written & something every voter should read before punching his chad.  ;)


Terry
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 07, 2016, 05:26:01 PM
But think about this:  We also have a FAKE NEWS CHANNEL THAT LIES ON A DAILY BASIS.  In fact....THEY HAVE TRIED TO THROW THE CURRENT ELECTION.

FOX News is not much better than listening to Russian television.  It's a disgrace to democracy.

If we manage to get through this election.......it won't be because of FOX News did any JOURNALISM.


sorry about that one, i definitely forgot about he "holy cow" the media who are the 4th and a very subtle power beside, justice, legislative and exectutive in our systems. thing is to find the way between censorship which is wrong of course and influencing through lies and half truth which is more subtle but still totally wrong.

the very root of things is that people compete permanently and are raised like that instead of colaborating. as long as competition is part of the "good tone" and not seen as what it is, an animalic instinct and not worthy for entities that consider themselves "human" or "superior" which in itself might be a key error. if you're interested you can have a look at some excerpts for my several books i'm working at under http://magnamentis.com (http://magnamentis.com) they are work in progress and probably will be published only after my demise and for free. thing is that money and fame have too bad an influence as do all the negative feedback and i don't think i need that during my old days haha....

but in short, you're right, media are key nowadays, directly after banks and insurance companies and more and more big information enterprises like google which as well has taken a doubtful path recently. "don't be evil" as google's motto can obviously not withstand monetary temptations in the long run as it seems.

i love this kind of conversation by the way but for a healthy spirit it's important to accept the limitations that only time will help to overcome, this acceptance is needed to stay content and keep
a peaceful mind (way of thinking ) i often say that a few guys, including myself are lucky that i have no say on the matter if you know what i mean LOL
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 05:40:04 PM
I'll take these one at a time:

OTOH, if Trump gets elected President this year, we are likely to see a Democrat controlled House and Senate in 2018.

Sorry....that is not even CLOSE to what will happen.  You apparently have NOT looked at who is up for re-election in 2018 on the Senate side. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018#/media/File:2018_Senate_election_map.svg

In 2018....there are 23 senate seats that are NOW DEMOCRAT up for election + 2 left leaning INDEPENDENTS....and only 8 that are now Republican. THAT is a HUGE advantage for the Republicans. So even if the Republicans don't manage to take the senate this year (even though the risk is 50/50 right now).....the Republicans are almost ASSURED of taking back the senate in 2020....perhaps by a large margin.

So....if Trump were to win this year....AND....the Republicans were to keep the Senate (which right now...is a 50/50 bet).....the Republicans HAVE THE WHITE HOUSE.....THE SENATE....AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.  What could possibly go wrong ;)

And now....think about this:  The Supreme Court....AT LEAST 2 SEATS AND POSSIBLY 3 SEATS WILL BE PICKED IN THE NEXT 4 YEARS.  Any you....Budmantis.....are OK with that happening?  Really?  What do you think that will do over the next 20 - 30 years NO MATTER WHO IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE?

We are also likely to see a Democrat get elected President in 2020, and hopefully that individual will have a lot fewer skeletons in the closet. There are no guarantees of course, but given the scenario I've just laid out, this country will be in the best possible position to enact climate change and other legislation after the 2020 election

Are you sure you don't live in Vegas?

Anyone who is SERIOUS about dealing with global warming....is voting for Hillary Clinton.  Anyone who is NOT....will vote for someone else. It really is that simple WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE FACTS.

I don't mean to sound so harsh.....but EITHER you have not looked at the facts:
1)  senate seats up for re-election in 2018
2)  the loss of the Supreme Court to RIGHT LEANING FOLKS LIKE FOSSIL FUEL COMPAIES

Or you are willing to roll the dice.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 08:11:25 PM
And some more interesting news from "camp Trump".   Who would be in his cabinet?

1.  Newt Gingrich:  The Congressman from Georgia that THE REPUBLICANS kicked out of the House Speaker position in the 1990's.  A man of "strong ethics" (lol)....and ONLY cheated on his first two wives (taking the divorce papers to his second wife while she was in the hospital suffering from cancer).  Yea.....that's my Newt.   Oh....he's married to wife 3 now.  No word on if he has cheated on her yet.

2.  Rudy Giuliani:  The guy that....a couple weeks ago was working with FOX News and a few rogue FBI agents to COME UP WITH A LIE THAT CLINTON WAS GOING TO BE INDICTED.    Which...of course....was a bald faced lie.  But that didn't stop Guiliani or FOX News.  THAT....is who Trump is going to have as his ATTORNEY GENERAL 

And no....I'm not kidding.  Like I have said before.....Trump will could not draw ETHICAL...QUALIFIED people to his cabinet.  When you are THAT...ethically challenged....nobody with any ethics is going to get near you.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 08:18:12 PM
Here is the most recent "Nate look"

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast)

A couple weeks ago I said it would be between 63% and 67% chance of Clinton winning....with popular vote between 4% - 5% difference in favor of Clinton.

Looks like I missed on both.  Chance of winning is slightly above my range...at 68%.  And the popular vote is below my range....currently Nate has it at 3.4% difference.

Also....Nate has her taking North Carolina (I have NC going to Trump...but CLOSE).

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ritter on November 07, 2016, 10:41:43 PM
And the popular vote is below my range....currently Nate has it at 3.4% difference.


This is entirely depressing to read.  :(
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2016, 10:50:45 PM
This is entirely depressing to read.  :(

3.4% isn't THAT close.  Don't get me wrong...it IS close....but not as close as it sounds.

IF....as I suspect....the polling models are UNDERESTIMATING Hispaic voter turnout....especially in battleground states.....a 3.5% polling difference might actually be 4% or more, and will likely give Clinton over 300 electoral votes.

Just watch Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina tomorrow night.  We will get an EARLY LOOK at whether it will be an EARLY NIGHT......or a LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

Anything is POSSIBLE.....but we're dealing with PROBABILITY HERE.

Just relax....make sure YOU VOTE....and make sure ANYONE YOU KNOW WHO CAN VOTE....VOTES FOR HILLARY.

Concentrate on WHAT YOU CAN CONTROL....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 08, 2016, 12:47:54 AM
Are you sure you don't live in Vegas?



Well Buddy, I expected to hear some strong words from you in response to my recent posts. I've enjoyed our back and forth this fall during the campaign season and am not offended by your comments. Everytime I post something I know you disagree with, I expect your avatar (the duck), to jump even higher! (lol).

I am aware of the long odds the Democrats face in 2018 with the Senate races. If Clinton is elected President in 2016, the Senate will most certainly remain in control of the Republicans after the mid-term elections in 2018. With a Trump presidency in 2016, there is a better chance the Democrats will gain control of the Senate in 2018 despite the long odds because I believe a Trump presidency will be a train wreck. This will also result in gains sufficient in the House for the Democrats to gain a majority.

That is my opinion and I'm going to stick with it. That being said, I would never live in Vegas because when it comes to betting, I'm not lucky. I don't even go to the Hard Rock Casino in Tampa anymore. (Mostly because they don't serve free drinks!).

Taking a look at how the stock market did today after the FBI cleared Clinton for a second time, I'm convinced of one thing; a vote for Hillary is likely to be a plus for my stock portfolio so yes, I will vote for Hillary, but I don't expect much to happen in the next four years. She is a deeply flawed candidate who will spend most of her time dealing with inquiries and possibly scandals in her first and likely only term in office.

http://money.cnn.com/data/hotstocks/?iid=H_MKT_QL (http://money.cnn.com/data/hotstocks/?iid=H_MKT_QL)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 08, 2016, 01:01:34 AM
This is entirely depressing to read.  :(

3.4% isn't THAT close.  Don't get me wrong...it IS close....but not as close as it sounds.

IF....as I suspect....the polling models are UNDERESTIMATING Hispaic voter turnout....especially in battleground states.....a 3.5% polling difference might actually be 4% or more, and will likely give Clinton over 300 electoral votes.

Just watch Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina tomorrow night.  We will get an EARLY LOOK at whether it will be an EARLY NIGHT......or a LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

Anything is POSSIBLE.....but we're dealing with PROBABILITY HERE.

Just relax....make sure YOU VOTE....and make sure ANYONE YOU KNOW WHO CAN VOTE....VOTES FOR HILLARY.

Concentrate on WHAT YOU CAN CONTROL....

you're right, no reason to worry IMO, i predict (leaning out of the window a bit) a close to 10% difference or higher in numbers while your system of states and electoral votes can distort things a bit so my 10% +/- something refer to the total number of votes US-Wide
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2016, 01:14:47 AM
Satire!  Here's a quick laugh (groan?) to break the tension.  ;D

IN FINAL APPEAL TO VOTERS, CLINTON CHANGES SLOGAN TO “WON’T BLOW UP PLANET”
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/in-final-appeal-to-voters-clinton-changes-slogan-to-wont-blow-up-planet (http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/in-final-appeal-to-voters-clinton-changes-slogan-to-wont-blow-up-planet)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 08, 2016, 02:38:15 AM

you're right, no reason to worry IMO, i predict (leaning out of the window a bit) a close to 10% difference or higher in numbers while your system of states and electoral votes can distort things a bit so my 10% +/- something refer to the total number of votes US-Wide
[/quote]

Hope you're right Magnamentis, the larger the majority, the larger the mandate. I think it will be a bit closer though.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 08, 2016, 02:39:18 AM
Satire!  Here's a quick laugh (groan?) to break the tension.  ;D

LMAO so hard I was crying....especially the part about kellyanne Conway.... ;D

Good one...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 08, 2016, 02:39:26 AM
Satire!  Here's a quick laugh (groan?) to break the tension.  ;D

IN FINAL APPEAL TO VOTERS, CLINTON CHANGES SLOGAN TO “WON’T BLOW UP PLANET”
[url]http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/in-final-appeal-to-voters-clinton-changes-slogan-to-wont-blow-up-planet[/url] ([url]http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/in-final-appeal-to-voters-clinton-changes-slogan-to-wont-blow-up-planet[/url])


Thanks for the humor Sigmetnow!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 08, 2016, 03:33:31 AM
", the demographic, who have historically been opposed to...", :-). Pretty funny yes.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 08, 2016, 05:26:43 AM
I was looking at other recent Borowitz articles. This one is even funnier.

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/queen-offers-to-restore-british-rule-over-united-states (http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/queen-offers-to-restore-british-rule-over-united-states)

"Long live the Queen!"
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 08, 2016, 11:23:20 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37893294 (http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37893294)

"U.S. election: Black Republicans seek converts in Trump's 'war zone'."

Thought this article by Jessica Lussenhop would add some contrast to our discussion.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 08, 2016, 03:43:09 PM
so my 10% +/- something refer to the total number of votes US-Wide

This will NOT be a 10% spread election.  The POPULAR VOTE will LIKELY be between 1.5% for Clinton....and 5% for Clinton.  Now....it obviously COULD be outside of that....but that is NOT LIKELY.

The ELECTORAL VOTES is something completely different.  If Clinton wins the popular vote by 4%.....she is likely to have 300 or more electoral votes to Trumps 235ish.

But the popular vote will NOT be a 10% difference.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 08, 2016, 04:57:28 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/john-weaver-axe-files/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/john-weaver-axe-files/index.html)

"GOP strategist: Clinton will win, but Congress wont work with her."

Excerpt: I believe she's going to win in an electoral landslide and be the most unpopular president in electoral history, which is quite the paradox, John Weaver told David Axelrod on the "Axe Files" podcast.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 08, 2016, 05:38:07 PM
so my 10% +/- something refer to the total number of votes US-Wide

This will NOT be a 10% spread election.  The POPULAR VOTE will LIKELY be between 1.5% for Clinton....and 5% for Clinton.  Now....it obviously COULD be outside of that....but that is NOT LIKELY.

The ELECTORAL VOTES is something completely different.  If Clinton wins the popular vote by 4%.....she is likely to have 300 or more electoral votes to Trumps 235ish.

But the popular vote will NOT be a 10% difference.

ok, to agree on terms and clarify what i meant:

my prediction is that if for example 250'000'000 americans vote for president, that clinton will win with a gap of 10% against trump, that would "for example" be: 112'500'000 votes for trump nation wide and 137'500'000 for clinton, gap 25'000'000 = 10% of 250'000'000.

this was just meant to define the 10% because there are other ways to calculate percentages and yes, i'm aware of the fact that there are others on the list. should not be that a detailed thing, it's a rough guess as opposed to a tight race, that's all, let's see, soon we'll all know
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 08, 2016, 08:51:44 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-melania-voting-photo_us_58220b22e4b0e80b02ccfcee (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-melania-voting-photo_us_58220b22e4b0e80b02ccfcee)

"Interpret this photo of Donald and Melania Trump voting however you will, but it sure is funny."

I think he's checking to make sure she votes for him.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 08, 2016, 09:51:39 PM
my prediction is that if for example 250'000'000 americans vote for president, that clinton will win with a gap of 10% against trump, that would "for example" be: 112'500'000 votes for trump nation wide and 137'500'000 for clinton, gap 25'000'000 = 10% of 250'000'000.

In your example....it would be 55% to 45%.  And what I am saying...is that it will likely be a "gap" of 2% - 5% (at most...half of your 10% gap).

I would LOVE to be wrong.  Looks like the black voter turnout will be much lower this time....and the Hispanic turnout much higher this time.

Ten percent would be a blowout....and the models would have DEFINITELY "missed something big" (like voter mix...etc).  It could happen....it just isn't LIKELY to happen.

Nate has the gap as 3.5%......and the range from 0% (tie) to 7% basically.

We'll see.......

We will know how race is going early:  Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania....I think all those polls are closed by 8 pm EST.

Michigan will be interesting to watch for all the "chatter" about it.  Also Minnesota.

As Yogi Berra said....."it anit over till it's over."



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 09, 2016, 02:36:57 AM
my prediction is that if for example 250'000'000 americans vote for president, that clinton will win with a gap of 10% against trump, that would "for example" be: 112'500'000 votes for trump nation wide and 137'500'000 for clinton, gap 25'000'000 = 10% of 250'000'000.

In your example....it would be 55% to 45%.  And what I am saying...is that it will likely be a "gap" of 2% - 5% (at most...half of your 10% gap).

I would LOVE to be wrong.  Looks like the black voter turnout will be much lower this time....and the Hispanic turnout much higher this time.

Ten percent would be a blowout....and the models would have DEFINITELY "missed something big" (like voter mix...etc).  It could happen....it just isn't LIKELY to happen.

Nate has the gap as 3.5%......and the range from 0% (tie) to 7% basically.

We'll see.......

We will know how race is going early:  Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania....I think all those polls are closed by 8 pm EST.

Michigan will be interesting to watch for all the "chatter" about it.  Also Minnesota.

As Yogi Berra said....."it anit over till it's over."

yeah i got that and 45 - 55 is what i mean, the gap is 10 :-) 45+10=55 :-)

however i tend to be an optimist hence you could be spot on. i as well did never expect that GWB was elected the second time and that the swiss people freely chose their own speed limits (low ones) and since then the entire population has paid already for that mistake. this second example is subjective of course while i'm still quite often caught by surprise how many people can be so s...d, even though it's a know fact. right now each red point is one too much IMO and helps to keep me awake LOL
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 04:30:01 AM
Looks like it will be a lot closer Buddy and Magnamentis. As of 10:30PM EST, Trump leads in the popular vote as well as the electoral vote. Once California is factored in, Clinton will likely take the lead in the popular vote, but Trump has a very real possibility of winning.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on November 09, 2016, 04:38:59 AM
Calling it Early.

Nate wiffed badly.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 05:31:50 AM
Calling it Early.

Nate wiffed badly.

Sure looks that way. Wonder what Buddy will have to say about that?! I expect his avatar (the duck) will be jumping to new heights!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 05:54:03 AM
Clinton is struggling in Wisconsin and Michigan.  If she loses either of those....then she loses.  If she is able to somehow win those.....then she will win as long as she takes Nevada.  Certainly not looking good for her now.   :'(

And......this will unfortunately not do great things for global warming.  Understatement of the century.

If Trump wins.....the winner will be comedians.  They will have a field day.  And fossil fuel companies.

The real effect.....other than the stock market tanking......will be unrest I am afraid.   As Stevie Wonder said......."having Trump as president...is like me driving".  And Stevie Wonder is blind....

There will be unrest by scientists for sure.... Also unrest internationally.....as there is little respect for Trump. 

As I always say.....it ain't over till it's over...


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 05:59:06 AM
The one vote we know for sure.....is the stock market.  They are voting against Trump.   Futures down about 5% right now......and international markets are tanking as well.  Mr. Market does not like this news at all.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 09, 2016, 06:01:06 AM
Clinton is struggling in Wisconsin and Michigan.  If she loses either of those....then she loses.  If she is able to somehow win those.....then she will win as long as she takes Nevada.  Certainly not looking good for her now.   :'(

And......this will unfortunately not do great things for global warming.  Understatement of the century.

If Trump wins.....the winner will be comedians.  They will have a field day.  And fossil fuel companies.

The real effect.....other than the stock market tanking......will be unrest I am afraid.   As Stevie Wonder said......."having Trump as president...is like me driving".  And Stevie Wonder is blind....

There will be unrest by scientists for sure.... Also unrest internationally.....as there is little respect for Trump. 

As I always say.....it ain't over till it's over...

hard to believe what's going on here, that should be moved to the "human stupidity" thread :-(

as it seems the wish was the father of my thoughts. another big step down the ladder for that country.

my sincere condolences
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 06:03:24 AM
The one good thing that will happen if Trump wins.....is that we will all get to hear the reason why he won't show his tax returns.  Because he will NEVER show them....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 06:22:25 AM
Japanese market down 6%......DOW futures down 800 points.  Congratulations Donald.  ;D

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Csnavywx on November 09, 2016, 06:25:42 AM
You can kiss the Paris accord goodbye. Rs in the White house, Senate and large majority (still) in the House. No real chance to take it back for 4 years. Lots of time to do damage.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 09, 2016, 06:26:08 AM
Luckily we have snow, I'll go for a dip. Nude.

http://youtu.be/nPOy7TPjfkE (http://youtu.be/nPOy7TPjfkE)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Csnavywx on November 09, 2016, 06:26:38 AM
Jesus, this is a full-on rout. She might lose MI, WI AND PA at this point.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: be cause on November 09, 2016, 06:43:00 AM
oops !
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 09, 2016, 06:51:32 AM
i declare my self the worst poll analyzer ever, i obviously lack the necessary imagination for certain things to be possible. not the first time really. :-)

but then it's probably even bias, looking and talking around a bit would have given sufficient hints.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 09, 2016, 07:02:03 AM
Whatever the final outcome will be, this is a revolution agianst science, evolution and human progress. It also confirms the populistic trends all over this planet and will make it easier for the other populistic parties on this planet. It's a fucking disaster.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 07:03:12 AM
i declare my self the worst poll analyzer ever, i obviously lack the necessary imagination for certain things to be possible. not the first time really. :-)

but then it's probably even bias, looking and talking around a bit would have given sufficient hints.

Don't feel too bad, imagine how Nate Silver feels!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Darvince on November 09, 2016, 07:19:08 AM
Nate Silver unlike most at least kept entertaining the possibility of a Donald victory, his model was the most bullish on it by far.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 09, 2016, 07:28:00 AM
Sleepy, that sounds like a good idea. Those 'murican f*******s may rot in hell they've created. Should we start a forum only for peoples who accept science?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 08:01:34 AM
Nate Silver unlike most at least kept entertaining the possibility of a Donald victory, his model was the most bullish on it by far.

Believe that if you want but he was way off the mark. Of course, so was everyone else.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 08:20:27 AM
Sleepy, that sounds like a good idea. Those 'murican f*******s may rot in hell they've created. Should we start a forum only for peoples who accept science?

Come on PMT, is that really the language of science? Besides, those 'murican f-----s happen to be fellow citizens of mine and I don't take kindly to that kind of talk, even if I disagree with them.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 09, 2016, 08:22:43 AM
Having problems accessing the forum today. Anyone else?

Sleepy, that sounds like a good idea. Those 'murican f*******s may rot in hell they've created. Should we start a forum only for peoples who accept science?
Looks like home! (Your picture) Go out and make some angels in the snow, it's refreshing! :)

Their hell is ours as well, SD representatives here calls this a victory for democracy.  ::)
I guess a lot of Trump voters will be humming to "It's a heartache" soon. Replace "him" with "Trump" in the lyrics.

Starting a forum for only those who accept science sound good, but not that easy when you consider freedom of speach and education for those who don't accept science. That seems to be half of the population in the western world nowadays.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 08:33:06 AM
Yeah Sleepy, I've been having connection problems too. Speaking of making angels in the snow, are we talking of doing this in the nude? Oops, I forgot, no snow down here in Florida! How about a lawn angel?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Iain on November 09, 2016, 08:35:38 AM
Positive spin on the Trump victory.

First let's get our head around basic economics:
Money is worth nothing, no one ever pays for anything

Money today is just Fiat money, no intrinsic value.  Central banks can create money out of thin air without doing any work or giving any items of value in exchange for it.
Purchasing an item involves exchanging money for goods, the money was exchanged for work earlier. The item purchased is a product of work.
At the basic level the purchase was an exchange of one person's work for many other people's work throughout the supply chain.
All consumption of goods consumes energy, of services too because the service provider’s earnings allow them to consume in turn.

Trump is likely to go protectionist. The markets’ opinion, where there stock values reflect expected future profits, is that there is going to be less work in the world.

Without knowing it, Trump has taken a major step towards reducing consumption and therefore carbon emissions.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 09, 2016, 08:39:33 AM
Yeah Sleepy, I've been having connection problems too. Speaking of making angels in the snow, are we talking of doing this in the nude? Oops, I forgot, no snow down here in Florida! How about a lawn angel?

Nude Yes! Lawn No! Cooling down is important, don't you have a large freezer or something similiar? :)

Edit; this is the Finnish way!
http://youtu.be/yzzaF2iKi1Q (http://youtu.be/yzzaF2iKi1Q)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: JayW on November 09, 2016, 08:46:27 AM
Whatever the final outcome will be, this is a revolution agianst science, evolution and human progress. It also confirms the populistic trends all over this planet and will make it easier for the other populistic parties on this planet. It's a fucking disaster.

I'm embarrassed as an American. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 09, 2016, 08:58:21 AM
Nude Yes! Lawn No! Cooling down is important, don't you have a large freezer or something similiar? :)

Edit; this is the Finnish way!
[url]http://youtu.be/yzzaF2iKi1Q[/url] ([url]http://youtu.be/yzzaF2iKi1Q[/url])


Ah, maybe later in the winter. Not enough snow yet. By the way did you know rolling in snow is actually colder than dipping in frozen water? Anyway a sauna very near is quite essential for me at least. To honor the 'murican stupidity, i already drove a mile to get something to smoke and am planning to drive an additional 2 to get some alcohol. Then i might walk to a bar, and hurt my head.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: be cause on November 09, 2016, 09:09:20 AM
Well , it seems like the first international consequences of Trump economics .. the freezing of Finlands assets :)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 09, 2016, 09:20:20 AM
By the way did you know rolling in snow is actually colder than dipping in frozen water? Anyway a sauna very near is quite essential for me at least.
Yes to both, I woke my oldest daughter yesterday with a bag of snow when she refused to get out of bed.  ;D

Looking at Trump now saying he will restore the American way. :'(

be cause; There are populists in Finland as well, the perussuomalaiset. The true fins, whatever that is...
They have dropped in the polls to roughly half since the election, that's a positive development.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 09, 2016, 09:42:14 AM
Looking at Trump now saying he will restore the American way. :'(

be cause; There are populists in Finland as well, the perussuomalaiset. The true fins, whatever that is...
They have dropped in the polls to roughly half since the election, that's a positive development.
Yes, their win caused my camera to lose all colors for two months.
The American way has been for republicans to ruin the economy in no time. Well just have to see how fast it goes this time around.

To end on a slightly more positive note, some 'muricans know this way of cooling down too. I selected a young woman performing this action since i think it's more appropriate during this governement:
https://youtu.be/sAgGrY8eQmk
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 09, 2016, 10:03:37 AM
To summarize; Finland is sobering up and the US will be hitting the booze.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 09, 2016, 10:57:04 AM
The world has a new view of America:

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/world-reacts-trump-s-election-win-it-s-end-era-n681031 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/world-reacts-trump-s-election-win-it-s-end-era-n681031)

Extract: "Before Hillary Clinton conceded the race, a senior member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government said the geopolitical situation was "very uncertain."

"We're realizing now that we have no idea what this American president will do if the voice of anger enters office and the voice of anger becomes the most powerful man in the world," Norbert Roettgen, a member of Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and head of the German parliament's foreign affairs committee, said on Deutschlandfunk radio.

French Ambassador to the U.S. Gerard Araud foretold of a new world order. "After Brexit and this election, everything from now on is possible," Araud tweeted. "A world is collapsing before our eyes. Vertigo."

"It's the end of an era, that of neoliberalism. What will succeed it, is yet to be known," Araud said in another tweet. Both tweets were later deleted.

Chinese state media outlets cast the result as a sign of America's democracy in crisis in contrast to China's perceived stability under authoritarian rule.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 09, 2016, 11:25:31 AM
The other votes went well? I know how californian's will be consoling themselves!!! ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 09, 2016, 11:49:58 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Republican Donald Trump Is Elected President Of United States And Global Markets Plunge".  There is a price to be paid for such arrogant ignorance:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2016/11/09/global-markets-plunge-as-republican-donald-trump-gains-a-path-to-u-s-presidency/#6532240b27dc (http://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2016/11/09/global-markets-plunge-as-republican-donald-trump-gains-a-path-to-u-s-presidency/#6532240b27dc)

Extract: "Fear of a Trump presidency was evident at the open of trading in Europe, where stocks in London plunged 2%, after futures indicated losses as high as 4%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong tumbled 2.7%, the South Korean Kospi fell 2.5% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 was down 5.1%. Australian and New Zealand markets fell by a similar measure.

Assets that rise in value during periods of market upheaval, for instance the U.S. dollar, gold, and government bonds, surged. Gold rose $41 to $1,316 a troy ounce, or over 3.2%. Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields fell 12 basis points to 1.73%, indicating an investor flight to the safety of government bonds. The euro fell 2%, while the Japanese yen fell 3%.

The Mexican peso, the asset that has swung most violently depending on prospects for the presidential vote, plunged. On Tuesday, as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton showed strength in early voting, the peso rose to two-week highs. However, it tumbled over 13.07% after midnight when CNN called a string of states for Trump including Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Utah."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: JayW on November 09, 2016, 12:34:12 PM
Trump spit out a tremendous amount of rhetoric, he made promises to the people who cast their vote for him.  These people also can turn in an instance.  Trump can't just make grandiose claims without now having to put his money where his mouth is.

He's more corrupt than a politician, and his scam, while deeply painful for everyone, will screw over the poor white folks who he promised to make their dreams come true.  You know, a Christian, white country governed by white old men.  With a big wall, and ships just packed with immigrants, heading to their homeland.   And no taxes for rich people, to further "stimulate" the economy...

I hope budmantis is correct, and that the the next four years "show people the light" and the democrats can put forth a candidate that cares more about the electorate than their own ambitions...

I'm asking a lot.


Sorry world, we let you down.  Again.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 12:45:43 PM
This truly will be "one for the ages."  I think the chance of a HARD global recession just increased about 75%.  Not because I hate Trump (I do).....but because of "protectionism" will likely be priced into the markets over the coming months.  Especially with commodities and emerging markets.  Countries that rely on commodities could get crushed.

I will be watching oil.  I would expect oil stocks to DROP in the coming months.  Why would you say oil markets will DROP when Trump is so PRO OIL?  Because we already have too much supply on the market.  The last thing the oil markets need or want right NOW...is MORE OIL.

So I expect commodities to continue to move lower as markets now expect protectionism to gear up.  Maybe Vladimir Putin will not be as enamored with Comrade Donald when he sees oil heading back towards $30 a barrel.  THAT...may take the shine off a wee bit....  That may also put Russia and Saudi Arabia in a noose....and they are already in bad shape.  Saudi Arabia is bringing a piece of their oil company to market in an IPO in 2017....and it may not be good timing.  Both Russia and Saudi Arabia are running through money faster than Donald Trump can tweet.

The other thing to watch for is how Trump "plays this out."  Remember....we're dealing with a guy who has an OVEREXTENDED EGO...AND...A BAD DECISION MAKING PROCESS (Fire...Ready....Aim).  I expect him to make more gaffs...now that he has power, and doesn't have to think about what he says (the Twitter president?).

I'll just keep my 10 year employment chart handy to point out to all Trumpies where Obama is going to hand off unemployment (it is now 4.9% in the US....and GDP at 2.9%)....and where Trump will be at the end of his 4 year term.


 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 09, 2016, 12:49:12 PM
From my fb feed 2 years ago, I'll just leave this here (while still considering the exact bar I'm going to hit my head into)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9GWAv3en7A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9GWAv3en7A)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 09, 2016, 02:10:03 PM
... But who [is] Johnson ...?
Gary Johnson is the former 2-term Republican Governor (1995-2003) of New Mexico (where I grew up, and one of the places (with Texas and Chicago) where dead folks used to regularly vote, I was led to believe).  He made his money in construction before running for Governor and climbed Mt. Everest afterwards.  I think he is a genuine libertarian, wanting minimal government except for military.  He is not a Climate Change denier, but, I understand, he holds the view that government shouldn't do anything about it.  He ran for President in 2012 as the Libertarian Party candidate when he garnered 1.0% of the popular vote; he is likely to do much better this November (2-5%?).
From a news release early this morning:
According to the latest results, Johnson brought in 3,828,844 votes. That’s a huge jump over his 2012 campaign, when he brought in 1.2 million votes. Unfortunately, his current number of votes comes in at 3.2 percent, just shy of the 5 percent he needs to qualify the Libertarian party for federal funding in the next election. He did not get any electoral votes.

His highest percentages were in New Mexico at 9.3 percent and North Dakota at 6.3 percent. He also had a few states coming in at over 5 percent.
So, my only written projection for this election came to pass.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 02:22:41 PM
From my fb feed 2 years ago, I'll just leave this here (while still considering the exact bar I'm going to hit my head into)

That's a good clip.  Quick...to the point...

One of the interesting things as global warming continues to pick up speed.....will be the escalating clash between the "science deniers" and science/facts.  And of course....the press and politicians will be front and center as well.

People can continue to deny the truth for a long time...but that TRUTH NEVER GOES AWAY.  Two plus two is four.....no matter how many times somebody says it is three.

Scientists are going to be pushed FURTHER into an area they don't like...and don't want to be in:  The political arena......and the journalism arena.  They just want to do "their science"....which is what they are GOOD AT...and why they entered their field in the first place.

And there are also MANY OTHER PEOPLE who aren't comfortable in being "activists"....and don't WANT to be activists.....that NEED to come out of their shell.  Yes....we all need to take a GOOD LOOK IN THE MIRROR.

"The world will not be destroyed by those that do evil, but by those that watch them without doing anything."  Albert Einstein...





Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 09, 2016, 02:38:06 PM
Not going to happen like that, Buddy. I'm off this political pathos to seek a bar to hit my head into.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 02:47:32 PM
Not going to happen like that, Buddy. I'm off this political pathos to seek a bar to hit my head into.

So....are you saying that scientists are "just going to roll over"?  Really?  I think you are mistaken if that is what you think....

It may take longer than I like (it already has)...for sure....but it sounds like you don't have much faith in people.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 09, 2016, 03:12:56 PM
Not going to happen like that, Buddy. I'm off this political pathos to seek a bar to hit my head into.

So....are you saying that scientists are "just going to roll over"?  Really?

Yes. There's no room for scientists bringing inconvenient truths to the populce of faith-based societies. Many may find occupation in speculative economics, that is going to fail, but at least it get the bread in the table. Some will switch their occupation alltogetjer having nothing to do with numbers and still some are attempting to improve lives of the people considering climate change but never attempting to do anything about it.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 03:21:59 PM
Yes.

So....did women just "give up" on women's suffrage?  No..

Did blacks just "give up" on voting rights?  No...

I think history is against you.... And I think physics is against you....  People aren't going to be able to ignore physics forever...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 09, 2016, 03:34:23 PM
Are we all neglecting just exactly where we are with the climate right now? Trump might not give a chuff about the QBO but only because he has no idea what it is. He might be unaware of the DMI80N graph at the mo (and the levels of ice at both Poles) but if we begin seeing even more extreme weather events over the next few months then He will be made very aware of where we are!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 09, 2016, 03:38:06 PM
Music break on this unnecessary talk about 4 more years

https://youtu.be/c2ZxoF4RLJU
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 03:42:39 PM
He might be unaware of the DMI80N graph at the mo (and the levels of ice at both Poles) but if we begin seeing even more extreme weather events over the next few months then He will be made very aware of where we are!

YES.  As global warming continues....and becomes more and more visible....you can't ignore it forever.  Just like tobacco....EVENTUALLY truth takes over.  It takes a LOT longer than anyone on this site would like.  But it is certainly a matter of WHEN....not IF.

The laws of science haven't been overturned last night.  Only the "laws of politics".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 04:10:25 PM
Yeah Sleepy, I've been having connection problems too. Speaking of making angels in the snow, are we talking of doing this in the nude? Oops, I forgot, no snow down here in Florida! How about a lawn angel?
Nude Yes! Lawn No! Cooling down is important, don't you have a large freezer or something similiar? :)

Edit; this is the Finnish way!

No freezer needed Sleepy, just watching that youtube video was sufficient!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ritter on November 09, 2016, 05:43:12 PM
A climate denial trifecta. Disaster indeed.  :(

Here's hoping China can set the fuel switching example the US cannot.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ivica on November 09, 2016, 06:03:27 PM
No. Disaster happened earlier - by betrayal of Bernie.-
(to solve eventual semantic problems, check posts like here (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,179.msg76673.html#msg76673), here (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,179.msg66935.html#msg66935), and around - at Café)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 07:41:07 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment/ar-AAk4TxS?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment/ar-AAk4TxS?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 08:38:45 PM
So....Clinton lost:

Pennsylvania by 68,000 votes
Michigan by 13,000 votes
Wisconsin by 27,000 votes

If she had she won those 3 states....she would have won.  I know...."if the if's and but's were candy and nuts...we'd all have a Merry Christmas."

And she ended up with MORE total popular votes than Trump by 208,000 nationwide.

Also.....looks like Crooked Donald has a date coming up in November.....only it's not the "good" kind of date:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-court-university-231082 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-court-university-231082)

I have the feeling this is going to be the first of many "firsts" for Comrade Trump.  He is being defended in the suit by Daniel Petrocelli.....one of the same attorneys who worked AGAINST OJ Simpson in the wrongful death CIVIL SUIT (not the criminal case).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2016, 08:56:36 PM
And to add insult to injury....

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/next-energy-secretary-181700972.html

He's decided to appoint an oil and gas guy to head the Dept of Energy.....so he can ignore global warming for 4 years.

Thanks Comrade Trump.... ::)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: DrTskoul on November 09, 2016, 09:03:44 PM
I am ready for a 4 year long hibernation... :'( :o
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 09, 2016, 09:52:46 PM



Astrologists, climatologists and pollsters, each uses charts, models, and esoteric mathematics to foretell the future.

The self inflicted wounds suffered by the political polling profession will have an effect on the perceived veracity of others claiming to forecast the future using advanced mathematics and modeling.


It might be wise to emphasize climate changes that have already occurred, using photos, cartoons, simple sentences & short, familiar, words. Models & math won't sway many & may be thrown back as another example of intellectual hubris that falls short when exposed by triumphant,Trumpian truth.


The election results were a huge blow to anyone attempting to sell prognostications while invoking logic, historical precedent, charts and graphs. If election results can't be successfully gleaned even as the results are trickling in, how can temperature, sea level, ocean acidity be foretold?


We had a hard road before Brexit. Post Trump it's possibly a Sisyphean task just to return to the level of trust we once had.


Terry

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on November 09, 2016, 10:00:00 PM
Wishing all of you from America, and your countrymen, the best of luck for the next few years. Just remember: they will pass.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ritter on November 09, 2016, 10:26:17 PM
I am ready for a 4 year long hibernation... :'( :o

It's going to be too hot to hibernate. Best look toward estivating!

TerryM--you raise  salient and unfortunate points.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on November 10, 2016, 12:06:50 AM
So social anger carried the day for Trump, ust as I was afraid. Sad.
The climate is finished. It had a small chance to begin with, as we are already in overshoot, but after 4 upcoming years of doing nothing, plus moving backward in many areas, it will not be possible anymore to slow/stop emissions before we reach the point of no return.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 10, 2016, 01:03:51 AM
So social anger carried the day for Trump, ust as I was afraid. Sad
.

You were....and ARE....right.  Incredible.  I have a neighbor, and a girlfriends daughter and son-in-law that voted for Trump.

They could care LESS about anything factual.  They just have this almost "blind devotion" to a fear mongering.....women molesting.....liar.  He quite literally could shoot someone and they wouldn't care a bit.  I don't get it.

I was playing with my girlfriends grandkid tonight.....he's 6.....and the 6 year old said..."Hillary is going to be in jail."  It was just him...his brother and me.  So I went out into the other room and said something to their mom like.."I didn't realize that Hillary was going to go to jail".  And she said..."well...I didn't really tell them she was GOING to jail, just that she SHOULD BE IN JAIL."

I told her my displeasure about spreading falsehoods....but I doubt she gives a rats ass.  She is also one of those "religious types" (the Ann Coulter special).  Too bad...great kids....but they don't have a chance with a bigot like that for a mother.....and the father is the same. 

It really is the David Duke mentality....

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/david-duke-trump-victory-2016-election-231072 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/david-duke-trump-victory-2016-election-231072)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Rippleillusion on November 10, 2016, 02:08:02 AM
This is quite something now, isn't it. I personally suspect the Donald will be fairly quickly cast aside and be the first "outsider" president. I suppose not much different than Dubya. A puppet for the Republicans, exactly the opposite of what his supporters supposedly voted him in for. But not much better for the rest of us. We'll see if that's where things go. Either way it's about to get real hot in here, and I'm very curious at what point will we see them budge on their ridiculous CC stance.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on November 10, 2016, 02:21:35 AM
Like Dubya, Donald will not be able to deliver on any promise to 'make America great again' at least not for any but his very wealthiest demographic. So how long will the even more desperate white non-college educated masses that really put him in power remain enchanted by his chicanery?

I can't imagine that they would still want him after four years of even more bitter wretchedness, but then I didn't think Dubya would get a second term either, so who knows.

Ugh, the prospect of four years is bad enough.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 10, 2016, 01:04:36 PM
Two things:

1)  I think people underestimate what Trump's ego will do to him.  His staff had to keep him off of twitter that last week or two to keep him from self destructing.  His ego is SO far out "over the tips of his ski's".....he thinks he can do ANYTHING.....TO ANYBODY.  THAT....will be his downfall.

2)  I also think people underestimate the hatred TOWARDS HIM.....that he has stirred up, by running a hate filled...fear filled campaign.  There are a lot of people that voted against him...that are extremely passionate about the country, and what he will do.  Many of them....like myself...will NOT BE WALLFLOWERS.  It is just not in our DNA.  And I live in Georgia which, along with Texas, is likely "hate central".  There was a KKK poster not far from my neighborhood (north of Atlanta).  Well....I have news for those folks:  F**K THEM.  I certainly will not stand by and watch an egotistical idiot ruin our planet....and our lives....and fill the world with hatred.  It is not who I am.  I'm sure my first involvement in a demonstration is ahead of me.  He is NOT my president.

The combination of the above two items is not a good combo for Trump.

Again...as Albert Einstein said:  "The world will not be destroyed by those that do evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/protests-donald-trump-election_us_58238e95e4b0d9ce6fc09d18 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/protests-donald-trump-election_us_58238e95e4b0d9ce6fc09d18)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 10, 2016, 04:15:02 PM

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, underscoring the robustness of the labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 254,000 for the week ended Nov. 5, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

It was the 88th consecutive week that claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market. That is the longest stretch since 1970, the department said.






I'm sure that Trump will bring in a lot of change.  Unfortunately.....much of it will not be good change.

Jobless claims came in at 254,000 for the week.....the 88th straight week of jobless claims under 300,000.  A record not seen since 1970.  Also...a continuing sign of the robust job market in the US.  GDP was 2.9% during the last quarter.....and the unemployment rate stands at 4.9%.

Looking ahead 12 - 18 moths....if Trump does the changes he is proposing....we will see an end to the good news we have seen for the last 8 years or so.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-jobless-idUSKBN1351LF (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-jobless-idUSKBN1351LF)









Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on November 10, 2016, 04:18:05 PM
when people said "NOT MY PRESIDENT" over the last 8 years, they were labeled as racist. 

I find it rather ironic that if you don't say "NOT MY PRESIDENT", you're likewise labeled a racist. 

Enjoy your Soro's paid protest Buddy.   
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 10, 2016, 04:24:30 PM
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/2016-election-good-progress-hope-liberals-progressives-democrats-214444 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/2016-election-good-progress-hope-liberals-progressives-democrats-214444)

"Five reasons for liberals to have hope."

This article by Bill Scher gives us some hope for the future. When we're done venting our spleen and licking our wounds, lets do all we can to turn this around. All is not lost.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 10, 2016, 04:41:26 PM
when people said "NOT MY PRESIDENT" over the last 8 years, they were labeled as racist. 

I find it rather ironic that if you don't say "NOT MY PRESIDENT", you're likewise labeled a racist. 


Maybe I was living under a rock....but I never heard "Not my president" over the last 8 years....and I watch CNN, FOX (you can't blast someone unless you actually watch them....and I only watch FOX for about 1 hour a week....my stomach can't handle more than that), and ABC.  Maybe I missed those episodes?

I also haven't seen anyone call someone a racist who DOESN'T say "not my president" over the last 2 days....but it's still early.  But since YOU bring up the race card....I wonder why David Duke is so happy now?  Why do you think that is?  Just curious....:)

If you are happy with Donald Trump....then you should embrace him.  I don't see any problems with that for you.  For me.....I have trouble embracing someone who is going to continue to move the planet to warmer and warmer temperatures.  Maybe that is just me.  If you feel happy with Trump doing away with policy's of the Obama administration that protect the environment.....especially when it comes to CO2 and global warming.....then again, embrace those facets of Donald Trump.  Then you should be happy you voted for Trump.  I'm sure your kids and grandkids will love you for it

Enjoy your Soro's paid protest Buddy.

Really?  Is that the best you can come up with?  Did Drudge tell you that one?  Come on....you can do better than that....:)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 10, 2016, 07:10:59 PM
Some reactions to the election result from the Twitterverse:

Greg Laden: January will be the first time in 8 years the GOP will have to do something other than blindly oppose the President.
https://twitter.com/gregladen/status/796356466198319106 (https://twitter.com/gregladen/status/796356466198319106)

Michael Mann: goodbye, and thanks for all the fish
https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/796359862645100544 (https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/796359862645100544)

Mrs. Landingham: I don't think there are enough cookies today....
https://twitter.com/mrs_landingham/status/796375506505572353 (https://twitter.com/mrs_landingham/status/796375506505572353)

"Here's Why We Grieve Today:
It's going to be a lot harder for us to forget what we heard than it is for him to forget what he said."
https://twitter.com/sjredmond/status/796483129129267200 (https://twitter.com/sjredmond/status/796483129129267200)

ACLU:  We will have more to say in the coming hours and days. But know the ACLU is here fighting and we need you fighting with us
https://twitter.com/aclu/status/796348719339814912 (https://twitter.com/aclu/status/796348719339814912)

Gun stocks are plummeting after Trump's victory
http://www.businessinsider.com/gun-stocks-after-trump-win-november-9-2016-2016-11 (http://www.businessinsider.com/gun-stocks-after-trump-win-november-9-2016-2016-11)

The #Auroraborealis exhibited a sharp delineation north of the U.S./Canadian border last night. #VIIRS #northernlights pic.twitter.com/rhNjNTuY34
https://twitter.com/uwcimss/status/796349044696162304 (https://twitter.com/uwcimss/status/796349044696162304)


And articles.:
   "1) This is not as bad as it seems.
    2) This is a moment for reflection."
http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/11/its-going-to-be-okay.html (http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/11/its-going-to-be-okay.html)
(See the linked WBW poll:  most people are voting for a person they don't really like.  Nice job.)

Jean Su of the Center for Biological Diversity (who was at the Mirage last night, and still has not slept) sought to quell despair: “I do believe that climate progress will not crash and burn because of one single man who was elected yesterday…. One single man cannot ruin a whole 20 years of progress on climate change.”
https://psmag.com/you-have-decided-to-jump-into-the-fire-cop22-reels-after-u-s-election-524c6056cb43 (https://psmag.com/you-have-decided-to-jump-into-the-fire-cop22-reels-after-u-s-election-524c6056cb43)

Eric Holthaus:  The momentum on climate is depressingly slow, but it's in the right direction. Trump is a big setback, but it's not game over.
http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-president-trump-edition-wednesday-november-9th (http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-president-trump-edition-wednesday-november-9th)

US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
https://www.carbonbrief.org/us-election-climate-scientists-react-donald-trumps-victory (https://www.carbonbrief.org/us-election-climate-scientists-react-donald-trumps-victory)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 06:23:27 AM
Suggestion for a new thread:
America - The Empire strikes back!

The great dear leader of the worlds greatest hypocrisy (Sweden just lost that title...) must of course have a great and grand project, as all great dear leaders do. So what will it be? Maybe the Hyperloop? Trump, Thiel and Musk would make a great team and it's a project that both holds great risks and great future promises, yummy!
Everything is awesome!!
http://youtu.be/StTqXEQ2l-Y (http://youtu.be/StTqXEQ2l-Y)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 11, 2016, 06:25:02 AM
I think protesting right after the conclusion of a fair election smells of sour grapes. Protesting after Trump takes office and has shown how he will govern will have a much stronger and lasting impact than protesting now.

Picture Clinton having won under similar circumstances as Trump. Wouldn't we tend to discount Trump's protesters as malcontents?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 11, 2016, 06:30:37 AM
Suggestion for a new thread:
America - The Empire strikes back!

The great dear leader of the worlds greatest hypocrisy (Sweden just lost that title...) must of course have a great and grand project, as all great dear leaders do. So what will it be? Maybe the Hyperloop? Trump, Thiel and Musk would make a great team and it's a project that both holds great risks and great future promises, yummy!
Everything is awesome!!
[url]http://youtu.be/StTqXEQ2l-Y[/url] ([url]http://youtu.be/StTqXEQ2l-Y[/url])


Hi Sleepy. Taking any headlong dives into the snow lately? BRRRR! I find it ironic that our country stands a better chance of spending significantly on infrastructure with Trump as president versus Clinton as president. With Clinton as president, the Republicans would likely block such an effort.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 07:09:56 AM
No, too litte snow for headlong dives, but I had some snow-showers while anger managing my 1982 Ariens ST 1136 on Wednesday. The snow will be gone next week when we return to our regular westerlies here. All will melt away.

I don't think it is much irony (my post above was, obviously), money leads the way = BAU. It's the same as here.

Am I the only one who's been thinking about the 2000 election with Bush and Gore and how that ended?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Paddy on November 11, 2016, 07:14:31 AM
I think protesting right after the conclusion of a fair election smells of sour grapes. Protesting after Trump takes office and has shown how he will govern will have a much stronger and lasting impact than protesting now.

Picture Clinton having won under similar circumstances as Trump. Wouldn't we tend to discount Trump's protesters as malcontents?

Indeed. We have to try to plan for what's coming up, not just vent our spleens about what's already happened.

And Sleepy, no, you weren't the only one.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 11, 2016, 08:06:49 AM
Suggestion for a new thread:
America - The Empire strikes back!

The great dear leader of the worlds greatest hypocrisy (*Finland* just lost that title...) must of course have a great and grand project, as all great dear leaders do. So what will it be?

 <clip>

Everything is awesome!!
[url]http://youtu.be/StTqXEQ2l-Y[/url] ([url]http://youtu.be/StTqXEQ2l-Y[/url])


I'd say they start with getting China, India and a few other biggest emitters out of the paris accord. Then they'll level the Appalachians to direct Atlantic hurricanes to midwest to alleviate drought and make south florida, cascadia and california de-join the union to get the next elections. That a plan??

Everything is awesome here too!!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 08:28:01 AM
There's no way to tell what will happen. How can anyone plan for that? What one can say, no matter who won, is that in the US the number of votes matters less than where those votes are cast.

If Trump sticks to his words he will pull out of the 1992 agreement, then withdraw from the Paris agreement after one year. As the 1992 agreement was/is an international treaty, the president does not have to consult with the Senate before withdrawing. Remember that scentence from Paris?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on November 11, 2016, 09:07:13 AM
The only hope with Trump is that he will not be able to fulfill his plans because of his personality. But unfortunately bad things come more easily than good things. I don't have much hope.
BTW, protesting is idiotic in my opinion, he was elected lawfully according to the voting system, end of story. This is what the country "wanted". Had Hillary won by such a margin, no one here would think to question her victory. The whole democratic system is broken in the age of "reality" shows and widespread ignorance and mis-education, but that's a whole different issue.
Buddy regarding your notes on economic growth and unemployment, I think that from the point of view of the typical citizen the economy is not so great as the numbers may claim, hence the social anger that brought Trump along.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Csnavywx on November 11, 2016, 09:30:54 AM
Careful there, he's made a ton of fools (including me) out of people underestimating him so far.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 09:37:13 AM
Certainly.
https://www.ft.com/content/3c9487f0-a74f-11e6-8b69-02899e8bd9d1 (https://www.ft.com/content/3c9487f0-a74f-11e6-8b69-02899e8bd9d1)
And:
Bookmakers have already started taking bets on the 2020 election. Mr Trump is the current favourite at 5/4

Edit; Not sure if that link is readable, here's the story on Paddy Power in the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/09/paddy-power-4m-bill-donald-trump-us-election-republican-victory (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/09/paddy-power-4m-bill-donald-trump-us-election-republican-victory)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 11, 2016, 09:58:21 AM
Anyway he can't do anything reeaally bad without republican support from senate, house, and supreme court so we're all safe...hmm? ooops...wait.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 11:00:55 AM
A small reminder.
http://youtu.be/wQ9AatktFf0 (http://youtu.be/wQ9AatktFf0)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 11:42:55 AM
Guess I've been to busy the last two days; Michael Moore has a plan and a to do list:
https://www.facebook.com/mmflint/posts/10153913074756857 (https://www.facebook.com/mmflint/posts/10153913074756857)
Morning After To-Do List:
1. Take over the Democratic Party and return it to the people. They have failed us miserably.
2. Fire all pundits, predictors, pollsters and anyone else in the media who had a narrative they wouldn't let go of and refused to listen to or acknowledge what was really going on. Those same bloviators will now tell us we must "heal the divide" and "come together." They will pull more hooey like that out of their ass in the days to come. Turn them off.
3. Any Democratic member of Congress who didn't wake up this morning ready to fight, resist and obstruct in the way Republicans did against President Obama every day for eight full years must step out of the way and let those of us who know the score lead the way in stopping the meanness and the madness that's about to begin.
4. Everyone must stop saying they are "stunned" and "shocked". What you mean to say is that you were in a bubble and weren't paying attention to your fellow Americans and their despair. YEARS of being neglected by both parties, the anger and the need for revenge against the system only grew. Along came a TV star they liked whose plan was to destroy both parties and tell them all "You're fired!" Trump's victory is no surprise. He was never a joke. Treating him as one only strengthened him. He is both a creature and a creation of the media and the media will never own that.
5. You must say this sentence to everyone you meet today: "HILLARY CLINTON WON THE POPULAR VOTE!" The MAJORITY of our fellow Americans preferred Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Period. Fact. If you woke up this morning thinking you live in an effed-up country, you don't. The majority of your fellow Americans wanted Hillary, not Trump. The only reason he's president is because of an arcane, insane 18th-century idea called the Electoral College. Until we change that, we'll continue to have presidents we didn't elect and didn't want. You live in a country where a majority of its citizens have said they believe there's climate change, they believe women should be paid the same as men, they want a debt-free college education, they don't want us invading countries, they want a raise in the minimum wage and they want a single-payer true universal health care system. None of that has changed. We live in a country where the majority agree with the "liberal" position. We just lack the liberal leadership to make that happen (see: #1 above).

Let's try to get this all done by noon today.
-- Michael Moore

And:
https://www.facebook.com/mmflint/posts/10153915876426857 (https://www.facebook.com/mmflint/posts/10153915876426857)
Day Two's To-Do List:
1. Must quickly and decisively form an opposition movement, the likes of which hasn't been seen since the 1960s. I will do my part to help lead this as I'm sure many others (Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, MoveOn, the hip-hop community, DFA, etc.) will, too. The core of this opposition force will be fueled by young people who, as with Occupy Wall Street and Black Lives Matter, don't tolerate b.s. and are relentless in their resistance to authority. They have no interest in compromising with racists and misogynists.

2. Prepare to impeach Trump. Just as the Republicans were already planning to do with President Hillary from Day One, we must organize the apparatus that will bring charges against him when he violates his oath and breaks the law -- and then we must remove him from office.

3. Must commit right now to a vigorous fight (including civil disobedience, if necessary) which will block any and all Donald Trump Supreme Court nominees who do not meet our approval. We demand the Democrats in the Senate aggressively filibuster any nominees who support Citizens United or who oppose the rights of women, immigrants and the poor. This is non-negotiable.

4. Demand the DNC apologize to Bernie Sanders for trying to fix the primaries against him, for spinning the press to ignore his historic campaign, for giving Clinton the questions in advance at the Flint debate, for its latent ageism and anti-Semism in trying to turn voters against him because of his age or religious beliefs, and for its anti-democracy system of "superdelegates" who are elected by no one. We all know now had Bernie been given a fair shot, he probably would have been the nominee and he -- as the true outsider and "change" candidate --would have inspired and fired up the base and soundly defeated Donald Trump. If no apology is soon forthcoming from the DNC, that's ok -- when we take over the Democratic Party (see yesterday's To-Do List, #1), we will issue the apology in person.

5. Demand that President Obama establish a Special Prosecutor to investigate who and what was behind FBI Director James Comey's illegal interference into the Presidential election 11 days before the vote was held.

6. Begin a national push while it's fresh in everyone's mind for a constitutional amendment to fix our broken electoral system: 1. Eliminate the Electoral College -- popular vote only. 2. Paper ballots only -- no electronic voting. 3. Election Day must be made a holiday for all -- or held on a weekend so more people vote. 4. All citizens, regardless of any run-ins with the criminal "justice" system, must have the right to vote. (In swing states like Florida and Virginia, 30-40% of all Black men are prohibited by law from voting.)

7. Convince President Obama to immediately do what he should have done a year ago: Send in the Army Corps of Engineers to Flint to dig up and replace all the poisoned pipes. NOTHING HAS CHANGED; the water in Flint is still unusable.

Will try to get these done by sundown. More To-Do tomorrow...
--Michael Moore
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2016, 01:16:56 PM
Living in Georgia has been interesting.  Probably a lot like going back to the 1960's or something.  I used to live in Oregon....WHEN IT WAS REPUBLICAN.  Oregon was ALWAYS "progressive".  Not in the political sense....but in the EXECUTIONAL sense.  They would execute policy's that were FORWARD LOOKING....and good for the state....even when they were Republican.

Here in Georgia.....WOW....what a difference.  Whatever you do....DON'T look forward.  And it is a hotbed of Trumpism....and global warming denial.  So what is now happening in Georgia....IN NOVEMBER:

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/wildfire-spreads-10000-acres-in-n-georgia/350760895 (http://www.11alive.com/news/local/wildfire-spreads-10000-acres-in-n-georgia/350760895)

Our neighborhood is in an HOA....and we have a private facebook page....so I have to be "non political" when I post to that page.  Yesterday I posted about all the wildfires in North Carolina and southeastern Tennessee.  Now today...posted about the article noting the Georgia wildfires.....and a post script of "anyone that wants to learn more about global warming knows where to reach me").  I'll see if there are any takers.....I doubt it.  Ten or 15 years from now when there home is burning down maybe they will think:  Hmmmmm......that dude may be on to something.  Our neighborhood is "Trump central"...  I actually get a kick out of some of it.  It's always better to be on the side WITH FACTS....even if there are way more people on the other side.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2016, 01:28:57 PM
Update to my post about the HOA above.

I posted an informational link to an article about the wildfires in Georgia with a map.  In a sentence at the bottom....I stated the following:

"This is not August or September.  This is November.  Anyone wanting to know more about global warming, knows how to reach me."

Well.....I guess that was just TOO CONTROVERSIAL for the gestapo....they cut off my internet access to the Cherokee Reserve Facebook group.  I'll be looking for KKK burned into my yard sometime next week :)   Bring it on guys.....nobody ever said this was going to be easy.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: DrTskoul on November 11, 2016, 01:35:48 PM
Update to my post about the HOA above.

I posted an informational link to an article about the wildfires in Georgia with a map.  In a sentence at the bottom....I stated the following:

"This is not August or September.  This is November.  Anyone wanting to know more about global warming, knows how to reach me."

Well.....I guess that was just TOO CONTROVERSIAL for the gestapo....they cut off my internet access to the Cherokee Reserve Facebook group.  I'll be looking for KKK burned into my yard sometime next week :)   Bring it on guys.....nobody ever said this was going to be easy.....

Keep up the good fight Buddy!!!   Trying to develop energy and fertilizer production options that are scalable and ultra low carbon footprint, until renewable sources start to make a real dent.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2016, 01:59:08 PM
Keep up the good fight Buddy!!!   Trying to develop energy and fertilizer production options that are scalable and ultra low carbon footprint, until renewable sources start to make a real dent.

I'll be finishing a "Cherokee Reserve:  Global Warming" facebook page sometime today or tomorrow.  It will be PUBLIC....but of course it will contain the name Cherokee Reserve so anyone from our neighborhood will likely stumble upon it from time-to-time.

The truth NEVER GOES AWAY.  It just sits there in wait.....for everyone to discover it. ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 11, 2016, 02:18:38 PM
Am I the only one who's been thinking about the 2000 election with Bush and Gore and how that ended?


No.



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 11, 2016, 02:20:50 PM
Buddy,
I think you got banned, not because of your acknowledging GW, but because of the Duck you proudly display on these threads.  You really must become a Cherokee High Warriors fan, I do believe.  Hey, they're having a winning season, and have a play-off game this evening.  Busy?

[Disclaimer:  Before my internet search (map of your locale, etc.), I'd never heard of Canton's Cherokee Warriors.]

All politics is local politics!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 11, 2016, 02:31:36 PM
There is an interesting table at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) (11/11/16) that shows both 2012 and 2016 votes cast, by state and candidate.  Of the 6 states that Trump won that Obama won in 2012, only Florida had more Democrats voting this year than in 2012.  (Trump votes went up more, obviously.)  In the other 5 states, if Democratic votes had matched 2012 votes, Clinton would have won all 5 of them, even though Trump votes exceeded 2012 numbers in those states.

Interesting that Trump received fewer votes, over all, than Romney did!

Basically, Democrats didn't vote this year.
(http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Images/raw_votes.jpg)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2016, 03:04:15 PM
Basically, Democrats didn't vote this year.

Fascinating chart.  You think the voters in Washington state were turned off this year?  Yikkkkessss.

It was a message and strategy from Trump from the very beginning, to get out the "racist white vote"....and he succeeded in that.

Keep in mind....that he got slightly less than 25% of the registered voters (slightly less than 50% of ACTUAL voters).  Of that 25% of registered voters he got.....some % of those are the "racist deplorable's".  So let's guess high...and say it is half of them.  So 12.5% of the registered voters are the "deplorable's" that will love any racist themes that Trump will initiate.

What I think Trump has underestimated.....and that many people underestimate.....is the passion of the NONDEPLORABLES.  Even some of those that didn't vote.

That is why I was NEVER worried about what would happen if Clinton won.....there might be some small areas (especially in the south....like my neighborhood ;)) where there would be some protesting.  But I think we're just at the very beginning of what may end up to be "Viet Nam War type protests" that grow MUCH....MUCH...bigger in scope over the coming months/years.  You will see LARGE.....LARGE...protests about climate change in coming months and years.  I won't be surprised....but I think many will be.

Because MOST of the people in the US....are NOT RACIST PIGS that love violence (right....Chasing Ice ;))......and an ever increasing portion of the US wants to do something about global warming...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 11, 2016, 03:12:00 PM
Sleepy:

With regards to Michael Moore's to do lists, I disagree with point 5 (morning after to do list). I agree only in part with points 2 and 3 (day two to do list).

I like Michael Moore and I think he's substantially right in what he is saying. What I'm concerned with is an overreaction. I also think it's important that we let Trump and the Republicans make some mistakes (which is inevitable). IMHO that will be the best time to hit back HARD.

I don't like the electoral college either, but it is the law of the land and the results of this election have to be respected.  That said, a repeal (which is highly unlikely) would be a good thing.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2016, 03:26:13 PM
Here is some information regarding "recording laws" (voice as well as video).  Looking DOWN THE ROAD....you just need to be prepared, and understand what is LEGAL in your state.

This is a "better safe than sorry".....and "forward looking just in case"....type of information.

For me....in my apparently bigoted neighborhood....I will always make sure I have my Iphone with me, charged, and quickly able to record any conversations that I am a party to (Georgia is a "one party consent" state....as long as YOU are a party to the conversation, you can record it WITHOUT the consent of the other person).

Again...these are the types of things that hopefully won't be needed.  But....better safe than sorry.   And...."plan for the worst and hope for the best."

http://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/georgia-recording-law (http://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/georgia-recording-law)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 04:57:06 PM
Sleepy:

With regards to Michael Moore's to do lists, I disagree with point 5 (morning after to do list). I agree only in part with points 2 and 3 (day two to do list).

I like Michael Moore and I think he's substantially right in what he is saying. What I'm concerned with is an overreaction. I also think it's important that we let Trump and the Republicans make some mistakes (which is inevitable). IMHO that will be the best time to hit back HARD.

I don't like the electoral college either, but it is the law of the land and the results of this election have to be respected.  That said, a repeal (which is highly unlikely) would be a good thing.
Ok, I'll try to describe why I disagree. There's a real danger with not reacting.
I think Tor's post above partly confirms point 5 (pointing back to No1). "Democrats didn't vote this year."
That's miserable.

Our politicians, also Swedes in general, had more or less the same attitude towards our populistic party and "mini-Trump" earlier, but ignoring them and waiting to see them fail was probably the worst mistake they could do. They got stronger. They don't care about their own failures. That attitude allowed them to do the same thing as Buddys comment above, "It was a message and strategy from Trump from the very beginning, to get out the "racist white vote"....and he succeeded in that." They have also been hugely active through the internet here, spreading nonsense, more so than anyone else.

The only site I've been banned from was managed by racists (it was a tech site, not about politics...). Deniers share the same mentality, often I've found out by following some aliases online, that they are the same. These people work by actively stirring up emotions, ignoring facts/rules and downplaying the "system" and using terms like PC-mafia (politcal correctness).

Waiting for the best time to get back, will never come. It's here now. Go get them.

I've seen Americans annoyed with Moore, here he wouldn't be much of a rebel, if that's what he's percieved as in the US. The US is tilted so far to the right that you don't even have a socialist party.

But my primary concern is climate change. We are already too late. We don't have the time.
It simply sucks to see a denier elected as the next POTUS.

This is not only about the US, I would definately sign this:
https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19 (https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19)
Edit; corrected the URL that got messed up.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2016, 05:26:33 PM
Waiting for the best time to get back, will never come. It's here now. Go get them.

ABSOLUTELY AGREE. What more do you need to see or hear.


But my primary concern is climate change. We are already too late. We don't have the time. It simply sucks to see a denier elected as the next POTUS.

We've been out of time for a while.  Wildfires in Georgia...IN MID NOVEMBER.  Three years ago, wildfires on the Oregon Coast IN JANUARY.  You NEVER get wildfires on the Oregon coast during the winter. Forty years ago YOU COULDN'T LIGHT A FIRE ON THE OREGON COAST IN JANUARY.

This is not only about the US

We're ALL on the same ship.  Different parts of the same ship.  And it is "taking on water QUICKLY."  And now someone wants to punch another hole in the ship....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 11, 2016, 05:54:43 PM
I'm probably in the minority here on this point, but I believe we have to honor the results of the election. Trump will be inaugurated on January 20, a little over two months from now. Sure the racist white vote went to Trump, but a high percentage of the white vote without a four year college degree put Trump over the top. Did they make a mistake voting for Trump? You bet they did! They just don't know it yet. In order for these folk to change their position, they will have to see how a Trump presidency will fail, and they are obviously in for a big disappointment.

I respect everyone's opinion here on this thread and my own opinion isn't far removed from the general consensus here. I could very well be wrong and if I am, I'll certainly own up to it. All I'm saying is let's wait until Trump takes office before launching a full offensive.

On the bright side, my wife and I have moved to an RV park here in Zephyrhills, FL where there are a lot of Canadians here for the winter. The park we previously lived in was mostly for Trump. In getting acquainted with my new neighbors, they were kind enough to offer me their condolences over the recent election. It was much appreciated.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2016, 06:06:47 PM
I'm probably in the minority here on this point, but I believe we have to honor the results of the election. Trump will be inaugurated on January 20, a little over two months from now. Sure the racist white vote went to Trump, but a high percentage of the white vote without a four year college degree put Trump over the top. Did they make a mistake voting for Trump? You bet they did! They just don't know it yet. In order for these folk to change their position, they will have to see how a Trump presidency will fail, and they are obviously in for a big disappointment.

This is an issue....global warming......that has been brewing for about 7,000 years on a SMALL BASIS.....200 years on a larger basis........30 years on a steeper basis still.....and 3 years STEEPER THAN THATThere is NO WAITING.  This is NOT a "wait and see moment."  He will appoint a climate denier to head the EPA.....and the head of an oil and gas company to head the department of energy.  WE ALREADY KNOW WHO'S PULLING THE SWITCH ON THE ELECTRIC CHAIR......AND WE'RE WALKING OVER TO THE ROOM.....NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO WAIT.

I respect everyone's opinion here on this thread and my own opinion isn't far removed from the general consensus here. I could very well be wrong and if I am, I'll certainly own up to it.


So after they pull the switch you'll admit you were wrong.  Boy....that's awfully big of you.

I see a 50 foot wave coming at us......I think we should wait, it might not make it all the way in.  If I'm wrong.....I'll say I was wrong.  Of course....we'll be dead.  But I'll say I was wrong.  You see how SILLY THAT ARGUMENT IS.  HE IS GOING TO PULL THE FRIGGING SWITCH. 


All I'm saying is let's wait until Trump takes office before launching a full offensive./quote]

NO....SEE ABOVE.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 11, 2016, 07:40:45 PM
No, too litte snow for headlong dives, but I had some snow-showers while anger managing my 1982 Ariens ST 1136 on Wednesday. The snow will be gone next week when we return to our regular westerlies here. All will melt away.

I don't think it is much irony (my post above was, obviously), money leads the way = BAU. It's the same as here.

Am I the only one who's been thinking about the 2000 election with Bush and Gore and how that ended?

if you look further up i mentioned that twice :-) hence you're not the only one and BTW she got more popular votes which again hints at what one of the major problems in that system is.

he won his states by a small margin while she won hers by huge margins. those electoral votes are for decades something i'm complaining about but as it seems there is no way. again we have a presdent who rules against the majority of people in a country, not totally the only case but then there is a reason why other countries don't copy the only really working democracy in the world ( by no means perfect but functioning ) that is switzerland. it means less power to the political class and that the people are the souvereign and not a party or a person or the politicians.

interesting in this context are:

a) the ridiculous excuses not to copy that

b) the openly uttered opinions that the people are too stupid to make the right decisions
while the opposite is proven fact.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 11, 2016, 09:04:04 PM
[


So after they pull the switch you'll admit you were wrong.  Boy....that's awfully big of you.

quote]

Not sure what you are implying here Buddy and I don't much like your tone. What we DONT need right now is a bunch of hotheads flying off the handle. If that's what you want, go for it! I've said all I'm going to say about this subject. I'm entitled to my opinion and you are entitled to yours. Let's leave it at that and avoid insults. After all, we are on the same side!

One thing further. What do you hope to accomplish before January 20, 2017? Are you seriously thinking that the electoral college will vote for Hillary instead of Trump? Get real!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 11, 2016, 09:10:46 PM
[


So after they pull the switch you'll admit you were wrong.  Boy....that's awfully big of you.

quote]

Not sure what you are implying here Buddy and I don't much like your tone. What we DONT need right now is a bunch of hotheads flying off the handle. If that's what you want, go for it! I've said all I'm going to say about this subject. I'm entitled to my opinion and you are entitled to yours. Let's leave it at that and avoid insults. After all, we are on the same side!

i agree with your point of view for the following main reason:

"important is what they DO and not what they SAY, hence let's see what they do (he does) and judge thereafter. i understand and also agree that there is good reason to be worried but if it's not the time to wait, it's as well not the time to shoot full broad sides at someone, based on
electoral campaign speeches. if that would be true we would have to hang them all ( i said WOULD )
haha...

enjoy the discussion, i find it interesting as long as things don't get nasty and overheated. there is no point in that. once one side starts to loose temper it's best practice to opt out, not saying that i
have it always under control, just saying what "would be" best IMO.

cheers everyone, nice community
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 09:17:31 PM
@magnamentis; I've understood from the replies above that I'm not the only one but I had and still have not, read through all the comments. Life is interfering here. ;)
--
@Buddy and budmantis; add over a hundred years of science regarding climate change. All the way from Svante Arrhenius in 1896 up until the US military first encountered real world measurable problems with heat seeking missiles and CO2. That was in the 50's.
http://youtu.be/E-Urt8x1Ygk (http://youtu.be/E-Urt8x1Ygk)

The 60's, 70's and 80's were happy days for me, had a friend that moved to Canada in the 80's. Why on earth Canada?? He answered; Oh, it's a lot better than the US and it's a bit more like home. I've been aware that we have the capability of destroying our civilisation since the early 90's, woke up for real in the early naughties, started expressing myself about about hitting the emergency brakes early this decade. The last three years have been distressing, then add Trump.

Which nation on this planet is the greatest ostrich now?
Richard Alley btw, is a republican, I wonder how he voted? A recent quote by him: "We either burn and then we learn or we learn while we burn."

I haven't much to be proud of since my life is a part of climate change, but as a foreigner looking in on the US, I don't have to honor the results of the US election. It's about honoring science and what has been known for many, many years. It's about honoring my kids, it's about honoring every other species on this planet, it's about honoring this spaceship we all call home.

Edit; before hitting the sack I'll just add this after reading sigmetnow's post:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg93597.html#msg93597 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg93597.html#msg93597)
Some are not waiting.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: sidd on November 11, 2016, 10:06:24 PM
1) Ascribing the result to racism is not supported by the fact that the previous black president did much better in the midwestern white vote than his putative white successor.

2) Failure to recognize 1) will ensure future defeat for the Democratic party.

sidd


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2016, 10:22:51 PM
I haven't much to be proud of since my life is a part of climate change, but as a foreigner looking in on the US, I don't have to honor the results of the US election. It's about honoring science and what has been known for many, many years. It's about honoring my kids, it's about honoring every other species on this planet, it's about honoring this spaceship we all call home.

Well said.

1)  Budmantis:  What I meant.......is that Donald Trump has PROVEN himself to be (1) a serial liar (2) totally opposed to "green energy" (3) beholden to fossil fuel companies...including our dear friends in the coal business.

There is NO REASON TO WAIT until he takes office.  WE KNOW what he is going to do.  The thought that we should "give him a chance" is amazing to me.  If he was "on the fence"....that would be a very different matter.  He isn't.  The only fence he knows about is the one he wants to build with Mexico's money (lol).

2)  The time for softball is over.  The only reason the Viet Nam war ended.....is that it became so intolerable at home with millions of people demonstrating.  THAT is why the war ended when it did.

The only way that we are going to get SERIOUS about faster movement on global warming....is when people take to the streets in larger numbers to PEACEFULLLY demonstrate about it....and begin to hold their Congressmen accountable.  Otherwise....the Congress will just keep collecting their pay from fossil fuel companies and continuing their lies to the American people.

Donald Trump IS NOT MY PRESIDENT.  He embodies NOTHING that I stand for.  NOTHING.  I will do everything I can WITHIN a legal framework to push change on global warming.....and to push those politicians who oppose that change.....out.





Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 11, 2016, 11:08:51 PM
1) Ascribing the result to racism is not supported by the fact that the previous black president did much better in the midwestern white vote than his putative white successor.

2) Failure to recognize 1) will ensure future defeat for the Democratic party.

sidd


The second article at the link is entitled: "The Five Baskets of Trump Voters - The deplorables make up only one basket. If Democrats dismiss the other four, they’ll keep losing elections."


http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/more_democrats_should_be_talking_like_harry_reid_right_now.html (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/more_democrats_should_be_talking_like_harry_reid_right_now.html)


"When we talk about Trump’s voters, we’re really talking about five baskets. The first basket is the deplorables: people who love to hate. These are the folks who paint swastikas and write racial slurs on Twitter. The second basket is people who liked Trump’s vilification of immigrants or agreed with him that Clinton didn’t “look like a president.” They’re easily manipulated. The third basket is people who don’t see racism or sexism anywhere. The fourth basket is people who don’t think it’s a big deal. They shrug off Trump’s taped comments about grabbing women as “locker room talk.” And the fifth basket is people who were genuinely troubled by the way Trump treated women, or the way he talked about a Mexican American judge or the mother of a Muslim American soldier, but who voted for him anyway, or stayed home, because they couldn’t stand Clinton.

Everything Clinton talked about in the first paragraph of her “deplorables” speech—racism, sexism, homophobia, xenophobia, Islamaphobia—is real. Trump exploited these prejudices, and I spent most of the election writing about them. As a country, we have a lot of work to do on them. But they can’t be the central message of the Democratic Party. And they can’t be the guiding explanation of why we lost.

That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t talk about race, gender, religion, or homophobia. We should. But we’ve just seen, in the cruelest way, that these issues aren’t enough. Even when the Republican nominee exploits bigotry of all kinds, and even when his opponent would be the first woman president, they aren’t enough. Too many voters—white, male, Christian, or otherwise—don’t care enough about those issues. We can’t afford to lose all these people. We certainly can’t afford to alienate them."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 11, 2016, 11:31:00 PM
1) Ascribing the result to racism is not supported by the fact that the previous black president did much better in the midwestern white vote than his putative white successor.

2) Failure to recognize 1) will ensure future defeat for the Democratic party.

sidd


The second article at the link is entitled: "The Five Baskets of Trump Voters - The deplorables make up only one basket. If Democrats dismiss the other four, they’ll keep losing elections."


[url]http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/more_democrats_should_be_talking_like_harry_reid_right_now.html[/url] ([url]http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/more_democrats_should_be_talking_like_harry_reid_right_now.html[/url])


"When we talk about Trump’s voters, we’re really talking about five baskets. The first basket is the deplorables: people who love to hate. These are the folks who paint swastikas and write racial slurs on Twitter. The second basket is people who liked Trump’s vilification of immigrants or agreed with him that Clinton didn’t “look like a president.” They’re easily manipulated. The third basket is people who don’t see racism or sexism anywhere. The fourth basket is people who don’t think it’s a big deal. They shrug off Trump’s taped comments about grabbing women as “locker room talk.” And the fifth basket is people who were genuinely troubled by the way Trump treated women, or the way he talked about a Mexican American judge or the mother of a Muslim American soldier, but who voted for him anyway, or stayed home, because they couldn’t stand Clinton.

Everything Clinton talked about in the first paragraph of her “deplorables” speech—racism, sexism, homophobia, xenophobia, Islamaphobia—is real. Trump exploited these prejudices, and I spent most of the election writing about them. As a country, we have a lot of work to do on them. But they can’t be the central message of the Democratic Party. And they can’t be the guiding explanation of why we lost.

That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t talk about race, gender, religion, or homophobia. We should. But we’ve just seen, in the cruelest way, that these issues aren’t enough. Even when the Republican nominee exploits bigotry of all kinds, and even when his opponent would be the first woman president, they aren’t enough. Too many voters—white, male, Christian, or otherwise—don’t care enough about those issues. We can’t afford to lose all these people. We certainly can’t afford to alienate them."


perfect, thanks
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 11, 2016, 11:46:33 PM
perfect, thanks

Ditto. Sidd and ASLR thanks for doing a better job than I at explaining my point.

Magnamentis: Thanks for your comment #525. "Blessed are the peacemakers".

Sleepy and Buddy: I cant fault anyone for following their conscience. For myself, my conscience says to wait until 1/20/17 and that is what I will do.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 12, 2016, 01:50:22 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/gop-obamacare-rift-231272 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/gop-obamacare-rift-231272)

"GOP feuds over how to kill Obamacare".

As expected, we're already seeing fault lines form within the Republican leadership.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: sidd on November 12, 2016, 01:53:50 AM
Needs a large basket for "economically screwed."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 02:20:21 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/)

I find this VERY PLAUSIBLE.  Remember....we're dealing with someone in Trump, who's ego is WAY WAY out over the tips of his ski's.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2016, 02:35:27 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/)

I find this VERY PLAUSIBLE.  Remember....we're dealing with someone in Trump, who's ego is WAY WAY out over the tips of his ski's.

While I agree that Trump will likely commit many impeachable acts; I am less certain that the US Congress will have the spine to impeach him.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 12, 2016, 04:49:09 AM
Thanks Tor Bejnar for the numbers on this. Now we can at least calculate how many of each state are to blame for this.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Archimid on November 12, 2016, 05:46:39 AM
So what happens if Trump comes out tomorrow and says that climate change is real? Wouldn't that be something?

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 12, 2016, 05:54:16 AM
Myron Ebell could happen. I wouldn't be surprised, if he did that, republicans might find a way to impeach him.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 12, 2016, 07:02:55 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/)

I find this VERY PLAUSIBLE.  Remember....we're dealing with someone in Trump, who's ego is WAY WAY out over the tips of his ski's.

I've read this article. Prof. Allan Lichtman doesn't think much of your man Nate Silver, Buddy. In the article he says "For all his acclaim Nate Silver is only a clerk, not a scientific analyst." That sounds like a hell of a putdown!

I doubt a Republican controlled Congress would impeach a Republican president, unless the acts were particularly egregious. With Trump, that is entirely possible however Lichtman's assertion seems too Machiavellian. The Republicans would pay a heavy price in any case.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 12, 2016, 07:12:55 AM
So what happens if Trump comes out tomorrow and says that climate change is real? Wouldn't that be something?

Trump is smart enough to understand that always aligning himself with the Republicans may not be in his best interest. I think he will and may already be doing some triangulation, playing one party against the other. He may be a lot of things, but he's not stupid. (Umm, except for those late night Twitter rants, that is!).

Could he change his mind on climate change? Stay tuned.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 12, 2016, 07:22:28 AM
So what happens if Trump comes out tomorrow and says that climate change is real? Wouldn't that be something?
Anything can happen, he can tell someone that they are great and the next second the oppsite, expect the unexpected. Either people think he's brilliant or a psychopath. Both are true.

I think I understand that, thanks to a "friend" that I've known for 44 years now. He does the same, he can make people feel like they're the center of the universe, the next second he can stab them. Then for the really fun part, he can talk about why he stabbed you and explain that it is for a greater cause. That cause is always to his own benefit. He's three years younger than Trump. He has been the same for all of those years I've known him.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 12, 2016, 08:28:11 AM
Planet Earth Is The Real Loser Of The US Elections
http://www.desmogblog.com/2016/11/09/planet-earth-real-loser-us-elections (http://www.desmogblog.com/2016/11/09/planet-earth-real-loser-us-elections)
During the U.S. presidential debates, there was not one single question devoted to the topic of climate change. And it appears that the results from the election have only amplified the silence that Americans seem to have on the subject of the environment.

Reminds me of Sweden.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: JayW on November 12, 2016, 02:05:53 PM
In my town there were just over 2000 votes cast, the break down was about 60/40 in favor of trump.  As many of us were casting votes against trump, many of the trump voters were in fact voting against Hillary not for trump.  I know liberals won't want to hear this, but there is one driving force, and that's guns.

Guns, guns, guns, that's what these folks are obsessed with, and that's how they vote. Period.  Democrats need to give up the gun control stuff if they want "blue collar whites" back.  It really as simply as that.  I work with so many people, who I feel are woefully uninformed, but aren't bad people, they are just scared, very scared about their guns being taken.  I don't get it as I have no gun, and don't lock my house, letting my dogs watch things.

But they are just so paranoid, they really believe everyone is out to get their shit.  They are always on edge, worry about everything, and blame the world for their problems.  But like I said, it's cause they are scared, and not about the effects of climate change.  However, giving up the gun thing can help win sportsmen over. 

I really believe that care enough about the environment that they would be open to accepting the realities of climate change.

But there are so many single issue voters, and the gun thing really drew them to the polls.  I witnessed it first hand.

Sorry to feel that way, I would certainly like to see less assault weapons out there, but if fighting that fight means losing the presidency to someone like trump, I throw up the white flag.

Time to cut the losses, and begin trying to bring those people into the fold.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 02:20:14 PM
But there are so many single issue voters, and the gun thing really drew them to the polls.  I witnessed it first hand.

Sorry to feel that way, I would certainly like to see less assault weapons out there, but if fighting that fight means losing the presidency to someone like trump, I throw up the white flag.

Time to cut the losses, and begin trying to bring those people into the fold.

I think you're right as well.  It is irrational.....but I think that is what people think.  Incredible to me...but they have been brainwashed.....and perception is reality.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 02:45:34 PM
I think there is a GREATER than 50/50 chance that Trump doesn't make it past 2 years:

1)  His cabinet....and the people around him are "D league"....not "A team."  Gingrich, Christie, Kudlow, Guiliani, Jeff Sessions (F), etc.  In order to have a good team....whether it is in sports, business, or government.....YOU HAVE TO HAVE GOOD PLAYERS.  And good players don't AUTOMATICALLY assure your success....BUT...they are a PREREQUISTE to having success.  He will not attract good players.  And of course....he is not "draining the swamp".....he's "hiring the swamp."

2)  If his business is so successful....who in the world can 3 or 4 of their top lieutenants (children) be so involved?  The answer is....his business is NOT so successful.  It never has been.  His business will continue to falter in coming months and years.  His business is in trouble.  His brand COTINUES to take a beating.  I'm afraid the white non-educated voters in the rust belt aren't his business customers.

3)  Tax Returns:  That issue is NOT going to go away.  The press will start to hound him about it in another 2 or 3 months.  They will NOT let it go.  And his 2015 return is NOT under audit...and the press will NOT let it go.  He will try to drag it out as long as he can...but he will NEVER SHOW HIS RETURNS.

4)  He has NOT made any friends in the press.  If he continues to push on the issue of the press....they will start to smell blood and go after him.  The "Washington Press Corps Dinner" next year....will be like a funeral.  THAT....will be interesting.

5)  Russian involvement:  That issue isn't over yet I'm afraid.  If it turns out the Trump campaign was working with Russian sources to get information....that WILL BE A BIG ISSUE.  If breaking into the Democratic Headquarters as the Nixon administration did for Tricky Dick.....what would helping the Russian government dig into Democratic servers be?  Think about that one for a minute......

6)  There are a LOT of pissed off Democrats that will be looking for some hide.  There are also a lot of REPUBLICANS that aren't particularly enamored with him as well.  If he starts to "screw the pooch" regarding policy....or other things....they will drop him like a hot potato if the political winds are blowing against him.

7)  Climate change.  Oh yes.  This one isn't going away.  And I am afraid Trump has himself in a pickle here.   He has the big money backing from fossil fuel companies.  If he continues on his path to (a) do away with the EPA or at least significantly decrease their clout, and (b) has an oil and gas guy as his energy secretary.........there will be hell to pay with demonstrations.  MARK MY WORD.  Here we are in a La Nina....and temperatures are STILL HOT.  There will be a continual stream of bad news on this front.

On the other hand....if backs away from his oil and gas buddies....then the Republicans in Congress will HATE THAT.  He is in a no win situation.

By the way.....we have a "Trump Moon" this Monday.  Flooding in southern Florida is supposed to be significant due to a King Tide.  Perfect timing.

Trump's biggest problem is his ego.  And it will be his downfall.  We're only 3 days after the election....and fissures are already starting.  Watching his cabinet come together will be enlightening.
 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 12, 2016, 04:08:53 PM
Bill Maher. :)
http://youtu.be/q9hFDqhF-3I (http://youtu.be/q9hFDqhF-3I)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 12, 2016, 04:34:39 PM

Time to cut the losses, and begin trying to bring those people into the fold.

Well said and I completely agree.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 12, 2016, 04:49:41 PM
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/the-black-swan-president-214450 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/the-black-swan-president-214450)

""Donald Trump is the biggest unknown ever to take control of the White House. What's the worst case scenario? The best? As the country waits to find out, Politico Magazine asked seventeen experts to game out a Trump presidency."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/why-we-need-a-new-democratic-party_b_12920342.html?section=us_politics (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/why-we-need-a-new-democratic-party_b_12920342.html?section=us_politics)

This article by Robert Reich provides a great deal of perspective and insight into why the election was won by Trump, and why the Democratic party must change.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: solartim27 on November 12, 2016, 05:05:53 PM
In my town there were just over 2000 votes cast, the break down was about 60/40 in favor of trump.  As many of us were casting votes against trump, many of the trump voters were in fact voting against Hillary not for trump.  I know liberals won't want to hear this, but there is one driving force, and that's guns.

Guns, guns, guns, that's what these folks are obsessed with, and that's how they vote. Period.  Democrats need to give up the gun control stuff if they want "blue collar whites" back.  It really as simply as that. 
If closing the gunshow loophole is possible in Nevada, then there is still hope for common sense to rule the day.
https://ballotpedia.org/Nevada_Background_Checks_for_Gun_Purchases,_Question_1_(2016)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2016, 05:29:30 PM
Now that Hillary is toast, can you feel the Bern?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/bernie-sanders-empire-strikes-back-231259 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/bernie-sanders-empire-strikes-back-231259)

Extract: "Supporters of Bernie Sanders' failed presidential bid are seizing on Democratic disarray at the national level to launch a wave of challenges to Democratic Party leaders in the states."

See also the article entitled: "What’s next for Democrats? For starters, a battle for the soul of the party."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/whats-next-for-democrats-for-starters-a-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-party/2016/11/12/33521d9a-a841-11e6-8fc0-7be8f848c492_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/whats-next-for-democrats-for-starters-a-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-party/2016/11/12/33521d9a-a841-11e6-8fc0-7be8f848c492_story.html)

Extract: "Amid the wreckage of Hillary Clinton’s loss, Democrats have started jockeying for control of the national party — and vigorously debating a dramatic course correction in response to Donald Trump’s election.

The upcoming choice of a new Democratic National Committee chairman could become an early proxy fight between the establishment wing of the party, embodied by Clinton, and its more liberal members, many of them aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the party’s runner-up in the Democratic primaries.

Sanders and other liberal lawmakers and advocacy groups argue that the DNC needs to be reimagined as less of an insider’s club focused on raising money and more of an advocate for the working-class voters won over Tuesday by the Republican nominee."

&

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/12/501704004/after-trump-victory-many-bernie-sanders-supporters-say-i-told-you-so (http://www.npr.org/2016/11/12/501704004/after-trump-victory-many-bernie-sanders-supporters-say-i-told-you-so)

Extract: "As America continues to absorb the results of a truly contentious and historic presidential election, one group of voters may be particularly upset: Bernie Sanders supporters. For months over the course of the campaign, many in Sanders' ranks said he was the only candidate with a sure shot at beating Trump, that he could reach working class voters better than Hillary Clinton could, and that he offered a true progressive agenda that Clinton could not."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: JayW on November 12, 2016, 05:47:36 PM
In my town there were just over 2000 votes cast, the break down was about 60/40 in favor of trump.  As many of us were casting votes against trump, many of the trump voters were in fact voting against Hillary not for trump.  I know liberals won't want to hear this, but there is one driving force, and that's guns.

Guns, guns, guns, that's what these folks are obsessed with, and that's how they vote. Period.  Democrats need to give up the gun control stuff if they want "blue collar whites" back.  It really as simply as that. 
If closing the gunshow loophole is possible in Nevada, then there is still hope for common sense to rule the day.
https://ballotpedia.org/Nevada_Background_Checks_for_Gun_Purchases,_Question_1_(2016)

A simular referendum failed in my state (Maine), and in my opinion, played a significant role in trump taking one of Maine's electoral votes.

I suspect Nevada has a demographic that's trending more urban, democrats are losing all the rural areas, and I feel that that's the price for the gun control legislation.  That's to high a price to pay when we end up with Sarah Palin as someone who could head the department of the interior, a frightening scenario.

I'm a single issue voter, climate and environment, it's not worth it to me to get these gun control measures passed when I see it alienating so many people around me.  Maine is one of the few rural states that is still blue, but it won't be for long, I know the democrats don't care about our 4 votes, but that's why they are in the place they are in now...

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, all turning red.

It's not worth it.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2016, 06:23:59 PM
Paul Krugman offers some comments on the fight ahead in the linked article entitled: "Thoughts for the Horrified":

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opinion/thoughts-for-the-horrified.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opinion/thoughts-for-the-horrified.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0)

Extract: "So what do we do now? By “we” I mean all those left, center and even right who saw Donald Trump as the worst man ever to run for president and assumed that a strong majority of our fellow citizens would agree.
I’m not talking about rethinking political strategy. There will be a time for that — God knows it’s clear that almost everyone on the center-left, myself included, was clueless about what actually works in persuading voters. For now, however, I’m talking about personal attitude and behavior in the face of this terrible shock.
First of all, remember that elections determine who gets the power, not who offers the truth. The Trump campaign was unprecedented in its dishonesty; the fact that the lies didn’t exact a political price, that they even resonated with a large bloc of voters, doesn’t make them any less false. No, our inner cities aren’t war zones with record crime. No, we aren’t the highest-taxed nation in the world. No, climate change isn’t a hoax promoted by the Chinese.
So if you’re tempted to concede that the alt-right’s vision of the world might have some truth to it, don’t. Lies are lies, no matter how much power backs them up.

Americans, no matter how secular, tend to think of themselves as citizens of a nation with a special divine providence, one that may take wrong turns but always finds its way back, one in which justice always prevails in the end.
Yet it doesn’t have to be true. Maybe the historic channels of reform — speech and writing that changes minds, political activism that eventually changes who has power — are no longer effective. Maybe America isn’t special, it’s just another republic that had its day, but is in the process of devolving into a corrupt nation ruled by strongmen.
But I’m not ready to accept that this is inevitable — because accepting it as inevitable would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The road back to what America should be is going to be longer and harder than any of us expected, and we might not make it. But we have to try."

Note: I added the emphasis in the last two lines.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 12, 2016, 06:31:17 PM
You surely have a different nation over there.

Here we go then:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/12/donald-trump-appears-to-soften-stance-on-range-of-pledges (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/12/donald-trump-appears-to-soften-stance-on-range-of-pledges)
I'm not surprised:
He told 60 Minutes the call in which Clinton conceded the election was “lovely”, adding: “It was a tough call for her, I can imagine ... She couldn’t have been nicer. She just said ‘congratulations Donald, well done’.”

“She’s very strong and very smart,” he said, adding that Bill Clinton had also called. “He couldn’t have been more gracious. He said it was an amazing run. One of the most amazing he had ever seen,” Trump said of the former president.

Another expected comment and a nice bunch including Steve Bannon:
Asked whether the tone of his campaign had gone too far, he said: “No. I won.”

The vice president-elect, Mike Pence, will play a key role in his administration, serving as a liaison with Congress, Trump said. On Friday Trump put Pence in charge of his transition team, while his daughter, Ivanka, her husband, Jared Kushner, and his sons Eric and Donald Jr joined the executive committee. The PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and Stephen Bannon, the former chairman of Breitbart News who directed Trump’s campaign, are also on the committee.

And this reality:
Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, said Trump needed to learn “what Europe is and how it works.”

“I think we will waste two years before Mr Trump tours the world he does not know,” he said.

Good Night.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: mati on November 12, 2016, 07:26:23 PM
The view from canada... it's basically racism

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-election/the-real-reason-donald-trump-got-elected-we-have-a-white-extremism-problem/article32817625/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-election/the-real-reason-donald-trump-got-elected-we-have-a-white-extremism-problem/article32817625/)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 08:22:26 PM
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Crowds-Fill-MacArthur-Park-for-Anti-Trump-March-Through-DTLA-400938496.html (http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Crowds-Fill-MacArthur-Park-for-Anti-Trump-March-Through-DTLA-400938496.html)

The thousands in LA will turn into tens of thousands within 6 months.  Will turn into hundreds of thousands before a year is up IF Trump continues on an "alt right" path.

I actually don't want Obama to "pre pardon" Clinton.  First....I don't think there is any reason to.  Second....if Trump and Guilianni want to try her....that would be like pulling the pin on a hand grenade and holding onto it.

Again....Trump has the ego of a Stalin....and the will and ignorance to use it.  Shall be interesting times....

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2016, 08:34:29 PM
If we take Donald J. Trump as the Game of Thrones' Night's King, then per the linked Mother Jones article about Trump's Cabinet, it looks like Newt Gingrich may be the "Hand of the King". That winter is coming might indicate that either misfired geoengineering and/or a nuclear winter is coming:

The linked article is entitled: "Trump's Cabinet Is Going to Be as Bonkers as You Thought – Buckle Up"

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/what-donald-trumps-cabinet-might-look-like (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/what-donald-trumps-cabinet-might-look-like)

Extract: "After Mike Pence was picked for the veep spot, Gingrich commented, "I said I want to be the senior planner for the entire federal government, and I want a letter from you that says Newt Gingrich is authorized to go to any program in any department, examine it, and report directly to the president." In other words, he wants to be—in Game of Thrones parlance—the Hand of the King. Maybe that's because Gingrich, with his decades of outlandish remarks, controversies, and scandals, might not want to go through what could be a bruising confirmation process.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on November 12, 2016, 08:45:20 PM
Bizarre that he has already drifted to a modified Obamacare idea - wonder how long that will last.  Maybe all his promises are built of sand and closer inspection will show them up as silly / expensive / wrong - then he just adjusts reality again ! 

Perhaps "Trumpcare" won't have quite the right connotations.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 09:10:03 PM
I wonder why Trump never quoted from Galatians 6:7?  And his surrogates on ESPN that always wear their crosses.....they never quoted it either.  I wonder why?

Do not be deceived: God cannot be mocked. Whatever a man sows, he will reap in return.  8The one who sows to please his flesh, from the flesh will reap destruction...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 09:13:18 PM
Trump is smart enough to understand that always aligning himself with the Republicans may not be in his best interest. I think he will and may already be doing some triangulation, playing one party against the other. He may be a lot of things, but he's not stupid. (Umm, except for those late night Twitter rants, that is!).

Trump may have some intelligence (book smarts)...but not as much as you people might think.  And there is a world of difference between INTELLIGENCE and WISDOM.  He definitely got shorted on wisdom....and we will see that play out.


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 09:19:11 PM
One thing further. What do you hope to accomplish before January 20, 2017? Are you seriously thinking that the electoral college will vote for Hillary instead of Trump? Get real!

Two things:

1)  I NEVER said ANYTHING about the electoral college.  The electoral college IS the system...and it should be followed.  You certainly weren't talking to me on that one.

2)  I'm a big "momentum" guy.  There is NO REASON to wait and start AFTER January 20th.  Momentum starts NOW.  It has started in LA....it has started  in Berlin...it has started in Portland, Oregon.  It will CONTINUE as Trump rolls out his plans.  If anyone likes Roger Stone, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Guilliani, Larry Kudlow, and the rest of the band of liars......they will love what he rolls out.  I prefer not to wait.  As he rolls things out....I will protest.

Can't wait till he try's to pull layer back the 1st amendment.  That will be received well.

The way to deal with a bully is NOT TO WAIT.  It is to hit him in the chops.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 09:28:25 PM
By the way Budmantis....RE:  Nate Silver

1)  I agree with the article that says that Nate is noting more than a "statistical" guy.  I think Nate would AGREE WITH THAT.  He is ONLY as good as the polls are.  Again....he would agree with that.  He is NOT...and has never been....a tarot card reader with psychic abilities.  All he does is aggregate polls.....and make an adjustment for (1) previous bias and (2) current economic conditions.

The morning of election day HE POINTED OUT that Donald Trump had a chance....just not a statistically good chance.  Again....Nate would likely be the first to agree that IF/WHEN the "polls get it wrong" (in any direction).....he will too....because he aggregates them.

The guy from Huffington Post that gave him grief Tuesday morning because he wasn't calling the race MORE FOR CLINTON....is obviously eating a healthy dose of crow.  Haven't heard from him again.

And again....note that Clinton was about 120,000 votes DIVIDED BY 3 states....from the election.  This was a CLOSE election.

All Nate is....regarding the elections....is "an aggregator" of polls.  I have never said anything else....and I think he would agree with that (with the 2 caveats above).

The two polls that did get it right...or at least came closest....were IBD and the USC/LA Times poll.  What is interesting about the USC poll....is that it was VERY CONSTANT for the last 6 months.  Interesting I thought....

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 12, 2016, 09:47:57 PM
And this reality:
Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, said Trump needed to learn “what Europe is and how it works.”

“I think we will waste two years before Mr Trump tours the world he does not know,” he said.



Here's an interesting interpretation of that initial Obama/Trump meeting at the White House:

http://valadilenne.tumblr.com/post/153048664118/ive-been-thinking-a-lot-about-the-meeting-between (http://valadilenne.tumblr.com/post/153048664118/ive-been-thinking-a-lot-about-the-meeting-between)

I imagine his eyes widened considerably.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 10:46:51 PM
Instead of waiting till January 20th, 2016.....maybe give him a few more years..... ;)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-looking-fast-ways-quit-global-climate-deal-1818 (https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-looking-fast-ways-quit-global-climate-deal-1818)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 12, 2016, 10:55:05 PM
And this reality:
Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, said Trump needed to learn “what Europe is and how it works.”

“I think we will waste two years before Mr Trump tours the world he does not know,” he said.



Here's an interesting interpretation of that initial Obama/Trump meeting at the White House:

[url]http://valadilenne.tumblr.com/post/153048664118/ive-been-thinking-a-lot-about-the-meeting-between[/url] ([url]http://valadilenne.tumblr.com/post/153048664118/ive-been-thinking-a-lot-about-the-meeting-between[/url])

I imagine his eyes widened considerably.


hoho... that's such a great read, made my day (next to other things LOL)

BTW, too many capital and bold letters in this thread, i dunno about others but in case of seeing such things repeatedly i just jump over those posts. i know that's not welcome to mention but then
i always hope that it makes people reconsider. cheers
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2016, 11:02:04 PM
BTW, too many capital and bold letters in this thread, i dunno about others but in case of seeing such things repeatedly i just jump over those posts. i know that's not welcome to mention but then

i always hope that it makes people reconsider. cheers

I don't mean for this to be a snide remark...but there IS a reason there is a bold and a CAPS.   Otherwise....why wouldn't they leave them off the computers?  They are used for emphasis.  Just a thought... 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 12, 2016, 11:21:17 PM
BTW, too many capital and bold letters in this thread, i dunno about others but in case of seeing such things repeatedly i just jump over those posts. i know that's not welcome to mention but then

i always hope that it makes people reconsider. cheers

I don't mean for this to be a snide remark...but there IS a reason there is a bold and a CAPS.   Otherwise....why wouldn't they leave them off the computers?  They are used for emphasis.  Just a thought...

There is no need to use bold and caps like you do Buddy. People will read your posts regardless, that is if they are worth reading. I think Magnamentis has a valid point and perhaps you should spend more time listening rather than continuing your sometimes tiresome rants. I find I learn more from listening as opposed to talking, which is why my posts tend to be short.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 13, 2016, 12:25:41 AM
I think Magnamentis has a valid point and perhaps you should spend more time listening rather than continuing your sometimes tiresome rants.

Budmantis.....you are the one that had to be convinced to NOT vote for Trump...remember?

"You can lead a horse to water...but you can't make him drink."  I guess you're not thirsty enough.  Although....by the time you are, the river will be dry.

Sounds like I have worn my welcome out.   So this will be my last post.  I know...THANK GOODNESS.

Good luck chaps.... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: oren on November 13, 2016, 12:39:41 AM
Buddy, I enjoy reading you posts, please don't take it personally. You do tend to overuse the CAPS thing, it's a minor issue, I hope you do not disappear from the forum because of that.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 13, 2016, 06:56:36 AM
I think Magnamentis has a valid point and perhaps you should spend more time listening rather than continuing your sometimes tiresome rants.

Budmantis.....you are the one that had to be convinced to NOT vote for Trump...remember?

"You can lead a horse to water...but you can't make him drink."  I guess you're not thirsty enough.  Although....by the time you are, the river will be dry.

Sounds like I have worn my welcome out.   So this will be my last post.  I know...THANK GOODNESS.

Good luck chaps.... ;)

I just want to say that I was never, ever going to vote for Trump. I want that to be clear. Just two or three days before the election, I was morally conflicted about voting for Clinton and I shared that with folks here at the forum. Because of Buddy and others, I was convinced to cast my vote for Clinton. After the election results became clear, I suggested we use caution in how to deal with Trump's victory. Buddy and I have been going back and forth the entire election season and I enjoyed the exchange with him and others very much. Over the past week the dialogue became heated and Buddy's comments really got under my skin. I try very hard to use tact and diplomacy in communicating here on the Forum as well as dealing with people in my life.

Unfortunately, I didn't live up that standard and now we may have lost a valuable contributor to the Forum. I'd like to join Oren in saying to Buddy that I'd like him to reconsider his decision to leave the Forum. I also want to apologize for the remarks I made that caused him to make that decision. Please reconsider Buddy.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 13, 2016, 07:30:47 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-popular-vote-victory_us_5827a2c5e4b02d21bbc91bbc (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-popular-vote-victory_us_5827a2c5e4b02d21bbc91bbc)

"Hillary Clinton's popular vote victory keeps growing."

"She is up by 1.8 million votes, with millions still being counted in California."

I was surprised to see Clinton's popular vote lead grow to 1.8 million votes. I was also under the impression that the vote count was finished within a day or two of the polls closing.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 13, 2016, 07:38:09 AM
The view from canada... it's basically racism

[url]http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-election/the-real-reason-donald-trump-got-elected-we-have-a-white-extremism-problem/article32817625/[/url] ([url]http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-election/the-real-reason-donald-trump-got-elected-we-have-a-white-extremism-problem/article32817625/[/url])

It's a big part and not only the US. As I tried to express earlier, you can't ignore it, we already made that mistake here.

And this reality:
Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, said Trump needed to learn “what Europe is and how it works.”

“I think we will waste two years before Mr Trump tours the world he does not know,” he said.



Here's an interesting interpretation of that initial Obama/Trump meeting at the White House:

[url]http://valadilenne.tumblr.com/post/153048664118/ive-been-thinking-a-lot-about-the-meeting-between[/url] ([url]http://valadilenne.tumblr.com/post/153048664118/ive-been-thinking-a-lot-about-the-meeting-between[/url])

I imagine his eyes widened considerably.

I believe that. :)
Reminds me of our populist leader here who had a burnout a while back. Reality is a tough place to face.

But more importantly, Obama didn't wait, there's no time to loose. Go get 'em!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: in4apenny on November 13, 2016, 04:34:16 PM
Got quite addicted to this thread although not from the US the topic is close to home.

I'm White, British, age 45+, low income, no college education & voted leave ( brexit), omg i must be racist.

Wrong.

The political elite/establishment & their followers  are quick to blame all but themselves for their failure to bring all citizens under their wing, this would mean some sacrifice & negotiation on their part which they seem unable to comprehend . The only argument/phrase/snide remark they seem to have is racist which is spouted at every opportunity to hide their own shortcomings with ideas to bring people together.

Back in sunny Blighty our schools are struggling to cope , the hospitals are at breaking point, the roads are buckling under the volume of traffic, we're building houses on greenbelt sites to keep up with population explosion & the air quality is plummeting etc,etc,, call me a racist but these are the issues that concern me.

i'll now get me coat ( for the brits :) )

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 13, 2016, 06:42:15 PM

Back in sunny Blighty our schools are struggling to cope , the hospitals are at breaking point, the roads are buckling under the volume of traffic, we're building houses on greenbelt sites to keep up with population explosion & the air quality is plummeting etc,etc,, call me a racist but these are the issues that concern me.


Build more hospitals, repair the roads, demand high density dwellings, and tighten regulations for air quality. Pay for it by ending subsidies for bad things, taxing those who can afford it, and utilizing all that cheap immigrant labor.




Solutions exist without xenophobic memes.
Terry

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: in4apenny on November 13, 2016, 07:04:55 PM

Back in sunny Blighty our schools are struggling to cope , the hospitals are at breaking point, the roads are buckling under the volume of traffic, we're building houses on greenbelt sites to keep up with population explosion & the air quality is plummeting etc,etc,, call me a racist but these are the issues that concern me.


Build more hospitals, repair the roads, demand high density dwellings, and tighten regulations for air quality. Pay for it by ending subsidies for bad things, taxing those who can afford it, and utilizing all that cheap immigrant labor.
Solutions exist without xenophobic memes.
Terry

By jove i think you've sorted it , will you be my MP.

All valid points & maybe one day we can look forward to a maximum density healthy population , breathing pure fresh air.

Oh, & the cheap immigrant labour where did you get that from? min wage + rights over here.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: theoldinsane on November 13, 2016, 09:36:05 PM
I think Magnamentis has a valid point and perhaps you should spend more time listening rather than continuing your sometimes tiresome rants.

Budmantis.....you are the one that had to be convinced to NOT vote for Trump...remember?

"You can lead a horse to water...but you can't make him drink."  I guess you're not thirsty enough.  Although....by the time you are, the river will be dry.

Sounds like I have worn my welcome out.   So this will be my last post.  I know...THANK GOODNESS.

Good luck chaps.... ;)

Please come back. I miss you.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 13, 2016, 10:04:16 PM
In4


Point I was trying for was that exiting and longstanding trade alliances don't have much to do with how well schooling, hospitals, and roads are maintained, or even the state of air pollution.
All of these, too my eyes, are indicative of locales where government spending on infrastructure has, for one reason or another, proven inadequate.


The worst examples I've seen are in the American South West where a Wal-Mart has opened in a town 50 miles away. Soon local retail has closed up, their taxes gone, property values drop, infrastructure goes unrepaired, urban services are no longer affordable, and within a few decades a modern ghost town arises from the ashes of a viable community that might have flourished for a hundred years prior to Wal-Mart's move.


Here in Canada I've seen villages that became specialists in fine cuisine, high end clothing and accessories, winter sports or summer boating/canoeing. The taxes keep flowing, property values hold their own, and infrastructure improves. Wal-Mart is relatively new here and seems content to remain in fairly large communities.


If you aren't willing to pay enough taxes your community's quality of life will suffer. In general towns with increasing populace, having a broader base to tax, do better than towns that are stagnant or whose population is dropping. This downward spiral may prove difficult to halt.


Why wouldn't a region want additional taxpayers?
They will pay for better schools, hospitals and roads. They eventually increase the voting bloc and demand better services from regional and central government.


Terry
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: in4apenny on November 13, 2016, 10:34:14 PM
In4


Point I was trying for was that exiting and longstanding trade alliances don't have much to do with how well schooling, hospitals, and roads are maintained, or even the state of air pollution.
All of these, too my eyes, are indicative of locales where government spending on infrastructure has, for one reason or another, proven inadequate.


The worst examples I've seen are in the American South West where a Wal-Mart has opened in a town 50 miles away. Soon local retail has closed up, their taxes gone, property values drop, infrastructure goes unrepaired, urban services are no longer affordable, and within a few decades a modern ghost town arises from the ashes of a viable community that might have flourished for a hundred years prior to Wal-Mart's move.


Here in Canada I've seen villages that became specialists in fine cuisine, high end clothing and accessories, winter sports or summer boating/canoeing. The taxes keep flowing, property values hold their own, and infrastructure improves. Wal-Mart is relatively new here and seems content to remain in fairly large communities.


If you aren't willing to pay enough taxes your community's quality of life will suffer. In general towns with increasing populace, having a broader base to tax, do better than towns that are stagnant or whose population is dropping. This downward spiral may prove difficult to halt.


Why wouldn't a region want additional taxpayers?
They will pay for better schools, hospitals and roads. They eventually increase the voting bloc and demand better services from regional and central government.


Terry

I'm not quite sure if our local govt is similar to your's , it seems their first & most important financial beneficiery is themselves

As for additional taxpayers money to overpopulate the community, NO i'd rather be poorer. It's an environmental thing.

I really don't count quality of life with money.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 15, 2016, 02:15:25 AM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/two-presidential-electors-to-colleagues-dump-trump/ar-AAkhZmV?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/two-presidential-electors-to-colleagues-dump-trump/ar-AAkhZmV?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Two Democratic members of the Electoral College have launched a campaign to keep President-elect Donald Trump from entering the White House, according to a new report."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 15, 2016, 06:22:51 AM
The petition I posted earlier has now been signed by almost 4.5M.
https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19 (https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 15, 2016, 07:22:30 AM
FYI Sleepy: I signed the petition.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 15, 2016, 07:38:23 AM
I keep checking the list of user's online, hoping to see Buddy. I truly miss him, despite the bolds and caps!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 15, 2016, 07:54:12 AM
Good to hear budmantis, whatever the petition leads to, it's at least a protest.

No one's perfect, I know I'm not. It would be nice if we all could find ways to accept our differences and try to get along.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 15, 2016, 05:52:44 PM
Good to hear budmantis, whatever the petition leads to, it's at least a protest.

No one's perfect, I know I'm not. It would be nice if we all could find ways to accept our differences and try to get along.


That would be nice. Maybe someday?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-electoral-college_us_582b103ce4b02d21bbca8624?afd1mjrn0bms7cik9 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-electoral-college_us_582b103ce4b02d21bbca8624?afd1mjrn0bms7cik9)

"Donald Trump won the Presidency but is still sore about the popular vote."

"Doesn't he have anything better to do right now?"

Could we see another Trump twitter rant?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 15, 2016, 06:59:37 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/%E2%80%98ape-in-heels%E2%80%99-wva-officials-under-fire-after-comments-about-michelle-obama/ar-AAki0ft?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/%E2%80%98ape-in-heels%E2%80%99-wva-officials-under-fire-after-comments-about-michelle-obama/ar-AAki0ft?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Ape in heels.": West Virginia officials under fire after comments about Michelle Obama.

We should be better people than this!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 16, 2016, 12:01:21 PM
Unfortunately I'm not surprised budmantis, it's similar to a lot of remarks from populists here. It's all of those litte comments that really unveils their true personality.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 16, 2016, 05:35:45 PM
Unfortunately I'm not surprised budmantis, it's similar to a lot of remarks from populists here. It's all of those litte comments that really unveils their true personality.

people are judged by so many flawed criteria but judging them by genetic origin ( i.e. skin color )
is that far of the mark or in other words so stupid, eventually fear and ego-based, that people with such an IQ should be exempt from voting like in some countries the criminals are.

not kidding, i mean it exactly like that.

on the other hand, since we are already at it, people with top 5% fortunes and in leading positions of top 5% enterprises should as well be exempt to vote and prohibited to contribute to campaign funding while campaigns should be exclusively funded 100% equally with tax money while of course the number of candidates would have to be restricted LOL else we would see too many.

the topic about restricting the right to vote is very complex and the above is just meant o hint at the idea and mentione 2 of the peak groups, there is much more to it and there are more such groups.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 16, 2016, 09:40:56 PM
There are a few democracies in this world. The US is not a good example as I see it. But I won't go further on that. When my brother died earlier this year, I had a moment when I thought that there are only two kinds of people, those who care and those who don't. And those two opposites can be the closest two siblings in one family while growing up, like myself an one of my sisters. I will probably never understand that and I don't know where to draw the line for those who should be allowed to vote or not, so my answer would be that everyone should have a vote.

Those who use their money without care for people or nature are the true predators on this planet.

Ah well, this poll is over so why not try a small summary?
One silent member got it right (maybe Michael Moore registered here? ;) ), the Simpsons got it right and also a monkey in China. The choice given was between Clinton, bananas or Trump:
http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/09/trump-the-monkey-was-right (http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/09/trump-the-monkey-was-right)

I'm obviously lesser than a monkey and went bananas.
Let's hope the upcoming elections in Europe doesn't follow the US.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 16, 2016, 10:26:46 PM
There are a few democracies in this world. The US is not a good example as I see it. But I won't go further on that. When my brother died earlier this year, I had a moment when I thought that there are only two kinds of people, those who care and those who don't. And those two opposites can be the closest two siblings in one family while growing up, like myself an one of my sisters. I will probably never understand that and I don't know where to draw the line for those who should be allowed to vote or not, so my answer would be that everyone should have a vote.

Those who use their money without care for people or nature are the true predators on this planet.

Ah well, this poll is over so why not try a small summary?
One silent member got it right (maybe Michael Moore registered here? ;) ), the Simpsons got it right and also a monkey in China. The choice given was between Clinton, bananas or Trump:
[url]http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/09/trump-the-monkey-was-right[/url] ([url]http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/09/trump-the-monkey-was-right[/url])

I'm obviously lesser than a monkey and went bananas.
Let's hope the upcoming elections in Europe doesn't follow the US.


that everyone has a vote is a very valid possibility but then we have to face the fact that it obviously does not work well in the long run and start to ponder over alternatives while pondering does not mean that that has to change, could well be that there is simply no good way to draw the lines and hence it's  still better to remain safe and give everyone a vote. i personally believe that it would be possible to find those lines  but then the risk that the wrong people would define them for the wrong reasons and thus the shot would have a reverse effect is way higher than 60% IMO, a bit more pessimistic would be to call that close to 100% certain.

my post was simply meant to throw int the idea in a brainstorming manner because there will be and will have to be changes and the more ideas will be scrutinized and tested and be it only to be discardeed, the better.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 16, 2016, 10:53:55 PM

Ah well, this poll is over so why not try a small summary?
One silent member got it right (maybe Michael Moore registered here? ;) ), the Simpsons got it right and also a monkey in China. The choice given was between Clinton, bananas or Trump:
[url]http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/09/trump-the-monkey-was-right[/url] ([url]http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/09/trump-the-monkey-was-right[/url])

I'm obviously lesser than a monkey and went bananas.
Let's hope the upcoming elections in Europe doesn't follow the US.


The monkey picked Trump because of his hair, which looks similar to the monkey's! The issue of who gets to vote can become a very slippery slope. Once you start disqualifying certain parts of the population, where do you draw the line? Thought provoking subject Magnamentis.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 17, 2016, 05:52:03 AM
I guess it takes a monkey to know one.  ;D

Apart from education, I think the real solution lies in equality (not just gender equalty). We are far from that in our societies. This is of course a rosy picture of Sweden but still, those ambitions should be world wide.
https://sweden.se/society/sweden-gender-equality/ (https://sweden.se/society/sweden-gender-equality/)
We are still not there in Sweden, allthough the link and the attached numbers might look good.
America just took a step back, into the dark ages.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 17, 2016, 06:44:04 AM

We are still not there in Sweden, allthough the link and the attached numbers might look good.
America just took a step back, into the dark ages.


Looking back to forty plus years ago (the 70's), I think we were closer then at least in some ways than we are now. I remember in Sweden in the '70's or early '80's you had a fairly liberal administration with Olaf Palme as prime minister.

Here in the U.S. I can remember feeling very optimistic about the future back in the '70's, but it seems we have gone in the reverse direction since the early 80's. Now look at us, it seems Americans have a pretty large chip on their shoulder and display a level of paranoia that I find disturbing. I think you're right Sleepy, we here are back in the dark ages it seems. I hope the same doesn't happen in Canada and Europe.

I've been giving a lot of thought to the discussions we've had on this thread, post election and I'm reconsidering my stated position of waiting until 1/20/17. Here's a BBC article about the Trump resistance movement. It appears to be gaining momentum.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38005262 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38005262)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 17, 2016, 08:17:50 AM
I think you are right, you are at least confirming some of my own memories from back then.
The US has been some sort of a role model for a lot of Swedes for too long. Those who still thinks so, are either predators or misguided. Climate change is not important right now. The upcoming elections in Europe will define our collective future. Imagine Le Pen in France? The EU might implode if that happens. What about mitigation, our collective civilisation and our kids future? We better start screaming and protesting right away.

I saw that about the removal of Trump's name from those buldings in New York yesterday. It's good. Many here in Europe whose parents experienced the buildup towards WW2, are maybe more worried about these signs of unrest, than people in the US?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 17, 2016, 01:21:24 PM
I've been giving a lot of thought to the discussions we've had on this thread, post election and I'm reconsidering my stated position of waiting until 1/20/17. Here's a BBC article about the Trump resistance movement. It appears to be gaining momentum.

So you're getting thirsty?  Is there a slight "dryness" in your mouth?  The "movement is just those that understand what Trump is doing...AND...what direction he is going.  It will continue to grow and there are 4 prongs to it right now:  (1)  anyone who is not lily white or not Christian (2) anyone concerned about global warming (I live in Georgia where we are having wildfires AT THE END OF NOVEMBER) (3) those that value freedom of speech and freedom of the press, and (4) women's concerns and issues....there is a "women's march" on January 21st in Washington DC.

Most of you already see it....and now Budmantis sees it....that Trump is going to continue to go "hard right" in his administration.  Of course....once anyone saw his choice for "Chief Strategist" in his cabinet (Steve Bannon...executive from Breitbart News)....people should have known.  If it looks like a rat...walks like a rat...and talks like a rat....ITS A RAT.

The next step....which he has already partially taken during his WHOLE campaign....is dealing with the press.  Look for him to continue to keep the REAL PRESS (anyone other than FOX) on "the outs."  You continue to see this even NOW....his tweets about the NY Times....and expect that to continue.  FOX will be his mouthpiece along with the New York Post.  Control the message is the mantra from within the Trump camp.

If you want to see what is really happening....I suggest you watch Rachael Maddow. Watch the following video clips to whet your taste buds (and make you thirsty):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NY1SYuyOidg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdgZ-qLb8NY

The interesting thing that I am going to watch...is how the "central press" (NBC, ABC, CBS, and CNN......as opposed to the "left press of MSNBC" or the "right press of FOX") responds over the coming weeks.  How "aggressive" will they become in the coming days and weeks?  Will they hold his feet to the fire in their public questioning of him?

You have to understand that you have an EGOTISTICAL SOCIOPATH as a president.....who is surrounding himself with......a very UNTALENTED TEAM.....of which several are "unhinged authoritarians" (Guiliani.....Bannon....John Bolton, .etc.).  Trump will have a VERY UNQUALIFIED BENCH...and rumor has it he is looking at Governor Nikki Haley for Secretary of State.  Keep in mind that she turned down any consideration for the VP job.  And she is NOT qualified as the secretary of state....which shows just how weak the pool of talent is that Trump will used to fill his cabinet.

Trump will continue to say "everything is great with his team".....which is what he did during the campaign as well.  Even though it isn't.

In the US....it has always been THE PRESS that is the "guardian of freedom".  We'll see over the coming weeks and months if they are up to the task.  We will also see how some of the MODERATE REPUBLICANS respond.  Do they provide some "pushback" like Lindsay Graham...senator from South Carolina?  We'll see what kind of backbone those folks have (and there isn't very many of them).

The other thing to consider is that Trump did NOT win the popular vote (which still irks him)....and Clinton...when all the votes are finalized....will likely have beat him by 1.5 - 2.0 million votes.  So this election was NOT any mandate...he won by the skin of his teeth.

In addition to those that voted for Clinton, you have a lot of people now out there WISHING THEY WOULD HAVE VOTED AND FEELING PRETTY GUILTY ABOUT IT.  As well as those who voted....and over the coming months will not like the fact that they voted a "straight R" ticket on election day.

Keep your EYES OPEN....and if you know people who haven't seen the facts.....then show them the facts.  If you know people who watch FOX News, then you need to send them clips of what is actually happening.  This is going to get a lot uglier before it gets better.  A LOT UGLIER.


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 17, 2016, 04:38:30 PM
Another quick note.  Donald is already pushing on Saudi Arabia about he doesn't want any of their oil.  This will just be the first of MANY issues that Trump will step into QUICKLY....without thinking (remember:  Fire...Ready...Aim).

Related to this....ExxonMobile has "held in" a LOT longer than I thought it would.  It's absolute high for its stock was about $105 back in June of 2014.  I continue to see this as going lower over the intermediate term.  TOO MUCH OIL.  And now we have the largest oil discovery EVER in the US (in Texas just this week).  Add to that.....that the Saudi's will have to find a "home" for their oil exports....and you have the recipe for LOWER OIL PRICES.

Greed is a funny bedfellow....and he will turn on you quickly.  The oil and gas companies are going to have a LONG...LONG...trip down (yes...there will be counterrallys higher)....but the short term looks BAD....and the long term looks BAD.

Watch oil over the coming months.......I still expect it to reach the $60ish area....its just taken a lot longer than I thought.  Putin won't be enthralled if the price of oil were to head back into the $30's.....  Then we'll see how well Putin likes Comrade Trump.

Also note....Lindsay Graham wants to look into the "Russia DNC" issue and have senate hearings.  That is one to watch over the coming weeks and months.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 17, 2016, 05:09:23 PM
Welcome back Buddy!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 17, 2016, 05:31:55 PM
This is what happens to people who "make it to the top and piss off everyone on their way" (Trump).  Nobody wants to work with them....and then people will watch as they fail.  Trump has already had a hard time recruiting good people into his camp....

This is just the first of many in government saying:  F you to Trump.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-intelligence-chief-clapper-resigns-152136438.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-intelligence-chief-clapper-resigns-152136438.html)

This will be 1 - 2 years "for the ages."  From a history perspective.....the next 1 - 2 years will be about as interesting as it gets.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ChasingIce on November 17, 2016, 06:44:31 PM
Your predictions amuse me, Buddy.   ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 17, 2016, 06:55:34 PM
What do you think about this:
https://newrepublic.com/article/138787/obama-can-put-merrick-garland-supreme-court (https://newrepublic.com/article/138787/obama-can-put-merrick-garland-supreme-court)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 17, 2016, 07:04:03 PM
More bad news on the labor front (sarcasm intended ;)).  Jobless claims last week were the lowest since NOVEMBER OF 1973.....43 years ago when the labor market was MUCH...MUCH smaller.  Only 235,000 claims last week.

Also.....this was the 89th straight week that jobless claims have been under 300,000....a threshold that shows the strength of the labor market....and a record that has not been seen since 1970.

We have GOT to get these bums out of office BEFORE EVERYBODY HAS A JOB.  That would be HORRIBLE..... ;)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/17/us-weekly-jobless-claims-nov-12-2016.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/17/us-weekly-jobless-claims-nov-12-2016.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 17, 2016, 11:36:42 PM
What do you think about this:
https://newrepublic.com/article/138787/obama-can-put-merrick-garland-supreme-court (https://newrepublic.com/article/138787/obama-can-put-merrick-garland-supreme-court)

The author of this article seems to think Obama wouldn't do a supreme court appointment in such a manner and I tend to agree. Even if Obama did the recess appt., I doubt Garland would accept it under those terms. That being said, part of me would love to see Obama do it, because the Republicans have been stonewalling him for a long time and deserve a kick in the chops.

P.S.: Regarding your earlier post about the elections in Europe, I'll have to do some research to get up to speed. I've heard of Le Pen, but know very little beyond that.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on November 18, 2016, 02:48:19 AM
Obama and Dem leadership were playing the card of "Republican obstructionism will cost them at the ballot box".  Absurd.  Although Trump is not a Republican, GOP aligned voters reward obstruction.  Mitch McConnell is a terrible person, but he's just a puppet for the Koch's and other monied interests.

The GOP is only effective as an insurgent party of no.  They don't know how to govern at the federal level.  They fall in lockstep when it comes to obstruction, but when they have to govern they fight each other and overreach.  It will be even more chaotic next year, as there are three or four sects within what's left of the GOP, and then there's Trump.  The only open question is how much damage they all do, and how many people in the US and worldwide suffer and/or lose their lives as a result.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 18, 2016, 08:37:26 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alan-grayson-none-of-the-above-act_us_582dce21e4b099512f812ead (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alan-grayson-none-of-the-above-act_us_582dce21e4b099512f812ead)

Alan Grayson wants "none of the above" on the Presidential ballot.

Two or three days before the election, I had voiced the same wish as a way to show my displeasure with the choices I had to vote for. Practically speaking, it may not be realistic, but at least in theory I like this idea.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 18, 2016, 08:57:58 AM
P.S.: Regarding your earlier post about the elections in Europe, I'll have to do some research to get up to speed. I've heard of Le Pen, but know very little beyond that.

France can be described with this classic joke: The facts and the theory do not match, let's change the facts. 
Sarkozy isn't popular in France.

Edit: Had to rush this morning so my comment was (even for me) a bit short. But if you searched with that joke I posted, you probably would have found this:
https://www.understandfrance.org/France/Intercultural9.html (https://www.understandfrance.org/France/Intercultural9.html)

A (very tame) interview with Marine Le Pen in a Swedish paper today (in English):
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/marine-le-pen-france-needs-to-develop-relations-with-russia/ (http://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/marine-le-pen-france-needs-to-develop-relations-with-russia/)
I'll quote one part about the Sweden Democrats:
Here in the European Parliament you have managed to put together a group with Gert Wilders and others but the Sverigedemokraterna said no. Had you been counting on he Sverigedemokraterna?

 – Yes. To me that is still… a big question mark.

 – We have had a relation with Sverigedemokraterna. We were invited to Sweden by their chairman, we have been together before within a European political party and in the latest parliamentary period we had a very good relation with their leader.

 – The only explanation I can find is the smears that they have been subject to, which I understand very well since we have had our share of smears, have been so intense that they felt it would become worse if they were sitting next to Marine Le Pen. That is the only explanation I can see.

 – I think it was a mistake. We share the same views, obviously not about everything, every party has its own history and culture and its way of promoting its policies, but when it comes to the big issues of principle we are of the same opinion.

 – You never know what happens. Perhaps all of us who are defending the nation will be able to agree on a big joint project in order to defend our peoples.
She's right, SD backed off because how people reacted to that here. But they are of course welcome back among the "patriots" any time...

There are many things that reporter could have asked Marine Le Pen, one really present question she avoided was this:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/french-court-sides-with-jean-marie-le-pen-in-battle-with-national-front-1479408372 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/french-court-sides-with-jean-marie-le-pen-in-battle-with-national-front-1479408372)
A French court ruled that the far-right National Front can’t strip Jean-Marie Le Pen of his title of honorary party president or exclude him from meetings, complicating efforts to distance the party from its controversial former leader ahead of France’s presidential election.


Now imagine if this was one of the final candidates in the US election:
http://youtu.be/g1HCFHjLndQ (http://youtu.be/g1HCFHjLndQ)

The US election is over. Who will win in France 2017?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 18, 2016, 12:49:15 PM
Here's an interesting article on Theranos.  It was is a company that once had a valuation of $9 billion US dollars.  It's CEO "promised the world" because of their new way of processing blood samples.  Unfortunately....they were empty promises.

This post is in this string for two reasons:  (1) Theranos was undone by a whistleblower....who happened to be the grandson of George Shultz...who was the Secretary of State for Ronald Reagan (George was on the board of Theranos and his grandson WORKED at Theranos), and (2) to point out that we have a HUGE LYING PROBLEM in this country.....and now we have the "Lying King" as our president in 2 months.

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-exclusive (http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-exclusive)

It's an interesting article...and it shows you how PEOPLE WANT TO BELIEVE things from time-to-time that just aren't true:

1)  Donald Trump will bring back coal jobs (he won't...they are TOAST...but it was a good line in Ohio for votes)
2)  Donald Trump will make us great again (no need....we're already there...but under Trump, we'll likely take a step back)
3)  Donald Trump will make our economy great again (no need....GDP is already at 2.9% and unemployment is at 4.9%.......please don't F**K it up now that you have the keys)
4)  Trump will unite us (he won't.....he has divided his whole campaign....and he has lied continuously....that won't change.....he's a sociopath)

But the article shows that lying.....is fairly pervasive in our society....and it is now especially dangerous because we will have THE MOST PROLIFIC LIAR IN THE OVAL OFFICE IN HISTORY
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 18, 2016, 05:07:44 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/gop-supreme-court-filibuster-nuclear-option-231582 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/gop-supreme-court-filibuster-nuclear-option-231582)

"GOP could nuke filibuster for Supreme Court nominees."

"Republicans warn that Democratic obstruction of Trump's pick will come at a steep, possibly historic price."

Yesterday Sleepy posted an article stating Obama could make a recess appointment to the Supreme Court on 1/03/17. In light of the above, maybe he should.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 18, 2016, 05:13:50 PM
This painting, purchased by Sean Hannity may end up in the White House.

http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/11/17/painting-of-obama-stomping-on-the-constitution-may-hang-in-the-w/21608338/ (http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/11/17/painting-of-obama-stomping-on-the-constitution-may-hang-in-the-w/21608338/)

The painting is called "The Forgotten Man."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 18, 2016, 07:30:28 PM
If you're going to "drain the swamp"....and build a CESSPOOL in its place.....you may as well start with the biggest turd you can find:

http://m.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2016/11/17/gov-rick-sccott-says-he-wants-to-help-trump-overhaul-obamacare (http://m.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2016/11/17/gov-rick-sccott-says-he-wants-to-help-trump-overhaul-obamacare)

Yes....having someone like Rick Scott....who should be in jail for all the Medicare fraud at Columbia Healthcare....is so comforting.

This is going to be one of the worst "teams" in history.  The most unprepared head coach....and his band of ignorant and dishonest gremlins.  Oh boy.....THIS is going to get interesting....

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 18, 2016, 07:40:10 PM
The following paragraph is from the case against Trump University.  You could just as well use it to describe his campaign:

"Using false promises to prey on desperate people has long been a hallmark of 'snake-oil salesmen,’" Schneiderman said this past July. "A lawsuit by my office alleges that Donald Trump was basically doing the same thing with Trump University."

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/donald-trump-nearing-settlement-trump-university-fraud-case-article-1.2878780?cid=msn (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/donald-trump-nearing-settlement-trump-university-fraud-case-article-1.2878780?cid=msn)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 18, 2016, 08:57:21 PM
The first official "victim" after the US elections here.
A politician from the opposition conservative Moderate party was fired on Thursday evening after calling Minister for Social Security Annika Strandhäll a “whore” in a live webcast.
http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6565903 (http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6565903)
He actually said fucking whore and that guy wasn't the only one who got upset. He just got caught on camera.
Strandhäll had recently joked after the US election that men should not be allowed to vote.
What Strandhäll did, was to reply to that, joke and suggestion made by a friend, with this scentence (my translation): I'll admit, that thought has crossed my mind.

A bit further down in that llink you'll find some of our nations finest and how they walk in the footsteps of the beloved, soon to be, dear leader in the US.
http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6566201 (http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6566201)
“They’ve tried to sort of piggy-back on the Donald Trump campaign in the US. Before he won the election, but also after, they’ve tried to sort of walk in those footsteps and relate what they say to the ads and the words coming out of the Donald Trump campaign,” Leman said.

If dear leader needs more help in his dream team, please call them.

Edit; also adding the follow up:
The fallout after a conservative Moderate politician was broadcast calling Minister for Social Security Annika Strandhäll a “whore” has continued, with the party’s communications director Per Nilsson leaving his position.
http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6566445 (http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6566445)
Nilsson will stay on as the party’s analysis manager, Tobé said. Another three members of the party were brought in for “serious” talks, he added.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 19, 2016, 08:54:56 AM
One more about France.
http://www.politico.eu/article/french-lefts-complex-operation-to-stop-marine-le-pen-conservative-primary-france-sarkozy-juppe-fillon/ (http://www.politico.eu/article/french-lefts-complex-operation-to-stop-marine-le-pen-conservative-primary-france-sarkozy-juppe-fillon/)
Thousands of French leftists will hold their noses and vote in a conservative election Sunday for what they see as a greater good: stopping ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy and keeping Marine Le Pen out of the Elysée.
Sounds familiar?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 19, 2016, 03:44:15 PM
Sounds familiar?


Unfortunately yes. Here's an article from Politico:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/obama-loyalists-trump-resistance-231642 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/obama-loyalists-trump-resistance-231642)

"Alumni of  Obama White House spent days mourning Trump's win. Now they're ready to fight."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 19, 2016, 04:04:38 PM
I like that!
“The tipping point was when we started talking about how we could kick his ass, and that we could,” Jaff said. “You realize everybody wants to fight and you suddenly get hundreds of messages coming in from volunteers who you’ve worked with before.”
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 19, 2016, 04:05:13 PM
Sleepy: It might be time to start a new thread dedicated to the upcoming elections in Europe. Here's an article about the upcoming Austrian elections. Sounds like they are in a similar conundrum as France is in trying to stop the election of a far right candidate.

http://www.france24.com/en/20161119-austria-conservatives-urge-vote-against-far-rights-hofer (http://www.france24.com/en/20161119-austria-conservatives-urge-vote-against-far-rights-hofer)

In reference to your above reply, it is definitely time to kick Trump's ass and his cabinet appointments!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 19, 2016, 04:40:42 PM
Yes, their election will be the first test, I worked with Austrian people and was also down there working for a short time, sixteen years ago. Remember Jörg Haider and FPÖ? They have a long tradition there but at that time I ignored those people, they were just crazy and they will never get anywhere. Neven should be fairly familiar with both Austria and the Netherlands but I guess he'll rather stick to the ice. ;)
For me the real reason to read here is to follow and read science, I've spent 3-4 hours a day for a number of years, I haven't done much of that for a while... Also thought about a new thread but not many seems to be interested in here and I'm not really that interested in politics. I guess that goes for a number of members in here. But what's happening now in Europe, after crazy was elected in the US, is much more than just politics. :(
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 19, 2016, 07:24:27 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-hamilton_us_5830607fe4b099512f8315f7 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-hamilton_us_5830607fe4b099512f8315f7)

"Donald Trump is really upset Mike Pence got booed at 'Hamilton'."

"Trump said Pence was harassed."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 22, 2016, 06:27:20 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-white-nationalists-nazi-salutes_us_583398c8e4b099512f8473dd?section=politics (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-white-nationalists-nazi-salutes_us_583398c8e4b099512f8473dd?section=politics)

"Trump issues tepid response to chilling Nazi salutes in his honor."

"His transition team releases a brief statement to denounce racism of any kind."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 22, 2016, 12:06:47 PM
And now....after announcing he is "all in" for coal and other fossil fuels....is why there was NO REASON to wait till January 20th.  He is hell bent on trashing the planet.

This will be part of his downfall....with the help of an overextended ego and some other missteps along the way.  People are now to the point where they will NOT just "let him do it."

Things to watch will be what reaction will other countries have via policy...and what reaction will the press have in coming months. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 22, 2016, 12:20:00 PM
Here's the next step:  The attempted chilling of the press.

http://nypost.com/2016/11/21/donald-trumps-media-summit-was-a-f-ing-firing-squad/ (http://nypost.com/2016/11/21/donald-trumps-media-summit-was-a-f-ing-firing-squad/)

Right now..."the press" is certainly NOT up to the task of calling Trump out.  ABC had a special on Gretchen Carlson who was the journalist at FOX that the CEO of FOX News (Roger Ailes) tried to move on sexually, and when she didn't play....was fired.  She won 20 million in a lawsuit.  But here is the kicker:  How can you have an hour long special on sexual harassment in the workplace and NOT EVEN BRING UP THE FACT THAT WE HAVE A SEXUAL PREDATOR PRESIDENT.

THAT...is why I don't think most of the press is NOT up to the task.  If they are going to wilt, and not play hardball....that will be a very dangerous thing indeed.  And that is why Trump had the meeting...to try and "put them in their place" before they got aggressive.  We'll see what happens...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 22, 2016, 02:48:40 PM
Again....Trump trying to "control the message."   I know I've mentioned it many times before.....but Trump is a sociopath (LITERALLY).  He wants adulation....and HATES CRITICISM.  His movements against the press during the campaign were just the prelude to what he is trying now.

Keep in mind....Trump STILL HASN'T HAD A PRESS CONFERENCE.  Here is President ELECT Obama's press conference THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION (it is more than worth a watch):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9VcS-EF7T0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9VcS-EF7T0)

You don't let a bully keep stepping on you.  You punch him in the face.  And then you do it again...and again.  Trump still hasn't had a press conference.  And he is trying to QUIET THE PRESS.  That is a TERRIBLY DANGEROUS track to be on.

DEFINITELY READ THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-new-yorktimes_us_58343347e4b030997bc129f5 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-new-yorktimes_us_58343347e4b030997bc129f5)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 22, 2016, 02:56:47 PM
(https://climatecrock.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/toles500.jpg?w=480)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 22, 2016, 03:20:48 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-new-yorktimes_us_58343347e4b030997bc129f5 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-new-yorktimes_us_58343347e4b030997bc129f5)

"Donald Trump cancels meeting with the NY Times."

"The paper says his team tried changing ground rules to only participate 'off the record'."

Sorry Buddy, I just noticed your reference to this article above. There's no doubt he's a dangerous man, I have this growing sense of dread each morning when I read the latest news on Trump. I wrote him off as a "buffoon" during the campaign. He's much more than that.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 22, 2016, 03:24:05 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democrats-electoral-college-faithless-trump-231731 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democrats-electoral-college-faithless-trump-231731)

"Democratic presidential electors revolt against Trump."

"The Electoral College could see a historic number of 'faithless electors'."

Although I was opposed to this in the first days after the election, I am now hoping that an electoral victory for Trump can be denied, and his election be decided by the House of Representatives.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on November 22, 2016, 05:51:58 PM
(https://climatecrock.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/toles500.jpg?w=480)

a very meaningful slapstick, we call this "Betroffenheitsdemokratie" in german which translates to something like a democracy of the concerned, meaning that people put there own interests over what's right or at least tenable which is exactly what we're dealing with and one of the side effects is that those who don't feel affected (concerned) either are howling with the wolves or remain quiet.

great post IMO
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 22, 2016, 06:12:27 PM
a very meaningful slapstick

Yes...the cartoon sends a definite message:  Speak up now...or your turn will be coming.


And on the side of darkness...here is a quote that EVERYONE SHOULD BE AWARE OF:

"Make the lie big, keep it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it."

The above quote...was really the "marketing strategy" of the Trump candidacy.  And the author of that quote?  Adolph Hitler.....

It is also "marketing 101".  Keep saying it...and they will believe.  THAT...is why it is of the UTMOST IMPORTANCE to speak up EARLY....LOUD....and CONTINUOUSLY.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on November 22, 2016, 09:14:06 PM
From today's New York Times meeting with Donald Trump - not sure we are much the wiser though !
http://www.nytimes.com/live/trump-at-the-new-york-times-the-tweets/ (http://www.nytimes.com/live/trump-at-the-new-york-times-the-tweets/)

Mike Grynbaum
✔ @grynbaum
On climate change, Trump says he is also thinking about "how much it will cost our companies” & the effect on American competitiveness.
7:21 PM - 22 Nov 2016

Does Trump think human activity is linked to climate change? “I think there is some connectivity. Some, something. It depends on how much."
7:20 PM - 22 Nov 2016

Tom Friedman asks if Trump will withdraw from climate change accords. Trump: “I’m looking at it very closely. I have an open mind to it."
7:17 PM - 22 Nov 2016
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 23, 2016, 05:25:32 AM
The linked article is entitled: “Donald Trump lost most of the American economy in this election “.  Apparently, Hillary won the popular vote by 1.7 million, and counting, and she also carried nearly two thirds of the US economy:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/22/donald-trump-lost-most-of-the-american-economy-in-this-election/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/22/donald-trump-lost-most-of-the-american-economy-in-this-election/)


Extract: “In the modern era of presidential politics, no candidate has ever won the popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did this year, yet still managed to lose the electoral college. In that sense, 2016 was a historic split: Donald Trump won the presidency by as much as 74 electoral votes (depending on how Michigan ends up) while losing the nationwide vote to Clinton by 1.7 million votes and counting.

But there's another divide exposed by the election, which researchers at the Brookings Institution recently discovered as they sifted the election returns. It has no bearing on the election outcome, but it tells us something important about the state of the country and its politics moving forward.
The divide is economic, and it is massive. According to the Brookings analysis, the less-than-500 counties that Clinton won nationwide combined to generate 64 percent of America's economic activity in 2015. The more-than-2,600 counties that Trump won combined to generate 36 percent of the country's economic activity last year.

Clinton, in other words, carried nearly two-thirds of the American economy.”

Edit: Here is the plot of the breakdown between Clinton & Trump by county GDP.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Iain on November 23, 2016, 05:42:00 AM
@Buddy

Take heart.

Apart from his change in mind on AGW and likelihood of causing a trade war induced recession, reducing consumption worldwide, there are other positives he may not have intended:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38034165 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38034165)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 23, 2016, 06:16:04 AM
Take shelter. 
--
Never expect to change the mind of a psychopath, or expect positive spin-offs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/us/politics/donald-trump-visit.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/us/politics/donald-trump-visit.html)
Pressed to respond to criticism in other areas, he was defiant. He declared that “the law’s totally on my side” when it comes to questions about conflict of interest and ethics laws. “The president can’t have a conflict of interest,” he said.

Mr. Trump did not dispute reports that he had used a meeting last week with Nigel Farage, the U.K. Independence Party leader, to raise his opposition to offshore wind farms. Mr. Trump has long complained that wind farms would mar the view from his golf course in Aberdeenshire, Scotland.

“I might have brought it up,” Mr. Trump said, then argued he had done so because of policy concerns about wind farms rather than any personal interest.

Mr. Trump rejected the idea that he was bound by federal antinepotism laws from installing his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in a White House job. But he said he would want to avoid the appearance of a conflict and might instead seek to make Mr. Kushner a special envoy charged with brokering peace in the Middle East.

“The president of the United States is allowed to have whatever conflicts he or she wants, but I don’t want to do that,” Mr. Trump said. But he said that Mr. Kushner, who is an observant Jew, “could be very helpful” in reconciling the longstanding dispute between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

“I would love to be able to be the one that made peace with Israel and the Palestinians,” Mr. Trump said, adding that Mr. Kushner “would be very good at it” and that “he knows the region.”

“A lot of people tell me, really great people tell me, that it’s impossible — you can’t do it,” Mr. Trump added. “I disagree. I think you can make peace.”

“I have reason to believe I can do it,” he added.
There's zero logic in that last quote. It's also ridiculously naive. People better find ways to stop Mr Trump from accessing the White House. Please...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 23, 2016, 12:26:15 PM
Apart from his change in mind on AGW and likelihood of causing a trade war induced recession, reducing consumption worldwide, there are other positives he may not have intended:

Actually....I am LEAST concerned with how he can ACTUALLY affect things related to global warming.  The "genie" is WAY...WAY...out of the jar on dealing with global warming:

1)  Countries around the world may put a carbon tax on US goods
2)  The economics of "going renewable" will continue down the path that makes fossil fuels "stupid" to use from a financial/economic aspect
3)  Trump is a sociopath....and HE HATES TO BE MOCKED OR LAUGHED AT....and that is what will happen in the US if he continues on that path.  He will soon be "the King who wears no clothes" unless he deals with global warming.

What I am most worried about Trump....is his decision making process...and his ego.  He will make some VERY BAD DECISIONS that may have significant ECONOMIC consequences....OR serious international relations type of decisions.

The Republicans have REALLY painted themselves into a corner on global warming.  Coal is dead....and will be dead for a very long time.  Those jobs aren't coming back.  Same for other fossil fuel jobs as we continue on for the next decade or two.


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 23, 2016, 12:51:50 PM
Here in the US...and I have written about this before....I expect energy costs to CONTINUE TO DROP now...and in future years.

It's a bit ironic that the candidate who called global warming a hoax....will benefit from the drop in energy prices because renewables will continue to "drive" forward with increased efficiency and reduced cost.  Increases in battery life....decreases in cost of solar especially.  Also...."construction efficiency" is continuing to drive energy costs down both in commercial and residential construction methods.

Things in the "physical world" of reality are moving much more quickly now (ice sheets, temps, ocean rise, storms, floods, etc)....so people hanging onto the denial train are going to get run over at some point in the not-to-distant future.

Those cost savings are GLOBAL....and will continue to help everyone.

One of the interesting things for me to watch will be who is going to "hang onto the denial train" the longest?  We are now coming close to the point where those folks will be mocked openly.  I see where Bill O'Reilly is openly trying to get off that train.....he had lied about global warming for DECADES.  You will continue to see more and more of those folks jump from the denial train.

But there are many people on Trump's cabinet that are either (1) outright deniers or (2) "yea.... there's  a little bit of global warming but it isn't worth it to do anything".

It will be interesting to watch those folks over the next few years.  (A)  How many of them backtrack, and (B) to what extent.

Don't get me wrong.....I EXPECT to see some demonstrations in the streets regarding global warming in the first year of a Trump administration....because Trump will certainly NOT move quickly enough.   But almost anything Trump can do....will not slow down the movement to renewable energy.   It no longer makes economic sense...and the writing is clearly on the wall.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 23, 2016, 12:58:16 PM
If you haven't seen this joke on Trump.....it's pretty funny, and it has gone viral:

=========================================================
An airplane was about to crash. There were 4 passengers on board, but only 3 parachutes.
The 1st passenger said, "I am Steph Curry, the best NBA basketball player. The Warriors and my millions of fans need me, and I can't afford to die." So he took the 1st pack and left the plane.

The 2nd passenger, Donald Trump, said, "I am the newly-elected U.S. President, and I am the smartest President in American history, so my people don't want me to die." He took the 2nd pack and jumped out of the plane.

The 3rd passenger, the Pope, said to the 4th passenger, a 10 year old schoolboy, "My son, I am old and don't have many years left, you have more years ahead so I will sacrifice my life and let you have the last parachute."

The little boy said, "That's okay, Your Holiness, there's a parachute left for you. America 's smartest President took my schoolbag." 😂
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 23, 2016, 03:26:08 PM
Buddy: I heard the same joke back in the '70's, only it was Henry Kissinger instead of Donald Trump.

Here's an article from the Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-challenge-election-results_us_5834e3a6e4b000af95ed3a34 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-challenge-election-results_us_5834e3a6e4b000af95ed3a34)

"Hillary Clinton has grounds to challenge election results, activists say."

"They claim electronic voting machine tallies in key states show discrepancies that hurt Clinton."

In the last paragraph there are links to two petitions; one calls on Clinton to demand a recount and a forensic audit. The other asks her to leave the election results as it stands and move on. I'm going to sign the former.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 23, 2016, 04:13:59 PM
The linked article is entitled: “Donald Trump lost most of the American economy in this election “.  Apparently, Hillary won the popular vote by 1.7 million, and counting, and she also carried nearly two thirds of the US economy:



Clinton is now ahead by over 2 million votes, according to this article.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/clinton-lead-popular-vote-2016-231790 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/clinton-lead-popular-vote-2016-231790)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 23, 2016, 05:37:36 PM
More of this:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/members-vow-cast-electoral-college-votes-trump-article-1.2883695 (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/members-vow-cast-electoral-college-votes-trump-article-1.2883695)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 23, 2016, 05:53:47 PM
More of this:
[url]http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/members-vow-cast-electoral-college-votes-trump-article-1.2883695[/url] ([url]http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/members-vow-cast-electoral-college-votes-trump-article-1.2883695[/url])


It's a fascinating scenario, but I think it wildly improbable that Trump won't take the White House.

From that article:  "Alternatively, Trump could be prevented from winning the Electoral College if he — in addition to losing Michigan — saw at least 21 electors abstain from voting altogether.

That outcome would leave Trump with 269 electoral votes, which would then result in the House of Representative determining the election. . . .Members will meet on Dec. 19 in their respective states to vote for President."

The only scenario I can envision for a upset outcome is if Trump is served with a felony indictment before Dec 19.  Short of that, even if the Electoral College vote deprived him of a victory, the Republican House of Representatives would surely pick him over Clinton, or any other candidate.  Let's hope for an indictment. 

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 23, 2016, 06:49:57 PM
Maybe the republicans already have something on him? Why would they want someone that egoistic and unpredictable as president?

Edit; adding another odd thing, the letter that Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfvén sent to Mr T. Swedish government offices said the censored sections could interfere with Sweden’s international relations if they were disclosed.  ???
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 23, 2016, 09:39:39 PM
"Let's hope for an indictment"

Indeed! But if there is no indictment, denying Trump an Electoral victory will put the responsibility squarely on the shoulders of the Republicans in the House. They will vote for Trump of course, but they'll be responsible for what happens while Trump is in office. Small comfort it is, but if Trump's presidency is as bad as we think it will be, it will result in the Democrats regaining the majority in the House in 2018.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 23, 2016, 09:42:59 PM
https://climatecrocks.com/2016/11/23/trumps-climate-head-fake/

Regarding his visit with the folks at the NY Times.  Global warming will be moved to the FRONT BURNER next year....

BTW....I think Peter Sinclair is a little "fired up" and ready to do battle....which is a very good thing.  Because there WILL be a lot of battles to wage.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: ritter on November 23, 2016, 10:57:23 PM
I must admit, as much as I dislike Trump and am scared of his pending policies, the potential results of "ousting" him in one way or another are far more terrifying from a social chaos perspective. I don't think the results would be comfortable for anyone. Careful what one wishes for.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on November 24, 2016, 02:09:40 AM
Should be no surprises but everyone should be appalled:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-turning-away-intelligence-briefers-since-election-win/2016/11/23/5cc643c4-b1ae-11e6-be1c-8cec35b1ad25_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpbriefing-650pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-turning-away-intelligence-briefers-since-election-win/2016/11/23/5cc643c4-b1ae-11e6-be1c-8cec35b1ad25_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpbriefing-650pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory)

This is what makes him an existential threat, not what he doesn't do about climate change.  That cake is mostly baked.  He doesn't know anything, and he's not even trying to learn anything.  And he's having conversations with world leaders and he doesn't know anything beyond bullet points about what's going on.  And is daughter is sitting in on these conversations.

This is why he should be ousted or whatever you want to call it.  I think there's a set of people that understand he's putting the whole thing at risk if he takes office in Jannuary.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 24, 2016, 02:31:22 AM
"This is why he should be ousted or whatever you want to call it."

I contributed to a recount & if Jill Stein raises $2.5 million by Friday, she can demand a recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (see the link to make a contribution):

https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount

Edit: I should mention that one needs to be a qualified voter in the US to make a contribution.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 24, 2016, 05:27:26 AM
I must admit, as much as I dislike Trump and am scared of his pending policies, the potential results of "ousting" him in one way or another are far more terrifying from a social chaos perspective. I don't think the results would be comfortable for anyone. Careful what one wishes for.

We have to keep one thing in mind, if Trump gets ousted while in office, his VP Mike Pence will  become president. He's not as scary as Trump but he is ultra conservative. Careful for one wishes for indeed!

If there is a way to prevent him from becoming president, that would be best, but highly unlikely.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 24, 2016, 05:43:58 AM
ASLR: Thanks for the link, and I've contributed as well. They're looking at a goal of 2.5 million and have already exceeded 2 million.

Pileus: You've mentioned once or twice that you don't think Trump will take office as President on 1/20/17. He's won the election or at least the electoral vote, why wouldn't he take office?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 24, 2016, 06:21:05 AM
We have to keep one thing in mind, if Trump gets ousted while in office, his VP Mike Pence will  become president. He's not as scary as Trump but he is ultra conservative.
That's what I tried to imply with my former comment. Wouldn't that be a nice conspiratory covert plan by the republicans, let Trump wreak havoc and win the election while scaring the living daylights out of everyone, then stab him in the back and let a nice controllable guy like Pence take over.
That's roughly what Allan Lichtman expressed earlier (without my conspratory thoughts ;) ).

This is what makes him an existential threat, not what he doesn't do about climate change.  That cake is mostly baked.  He doesn't know anything, and he's not even trying to learn anything.  And he's having conversations with world leaders and he doesn't know anything beyond bullet points about what's going on.  And is daughter is sitting in on these conversations.

This is why he should be ousted or whatever you want to call it.  I think there's a set of people that understand he's putting the whole thing at risk if he takes office in Jannuary.

Correct. Alea iacta est. He has already done enough damage to cause unrest on this planet. Now everyone is waiting for him to take office. That must not happen.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 24, 2016, 06:25:45 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-transition-investigation-gao_us_5835a05ee4b09b6055ffa96b (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-transition-investigation-gao_us_5835a05ee4b09b6055ffa96b)

"Top Democrats Press GAO To Investigate ‘Chaotic’ Trump Transition."

"Two lawmakers question if there is even a dividing line between Trump’s presidency and his business ventures."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 24, 2016, 06:37:04 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-constitution-liberals-231783 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-constitution-liberals-231783)

"The 229-year-old sentence liberals hope will sink Trump."

"An obscure line in the Constitution has become a rallying point for some legal experts and critics of Donald Trump, who fear the president-elect has little intention of making a clean break between his business interests and his new White House role."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 24, 2016, 08:16:22 AM


I'm in extreme sympathy with the fears that I expect we are all feeling.

I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect of a country strong enough to close down this on any other web site,
I'm going to copy this to any other threads heading in this directon
Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Iain on November 24, 2016, 08:50:56 AM
From my side of the pond:

Looking at his body language and voice – the hesitancy, changes in pitch- in the last few days of the campaign, I concluded he did not want to win.
His preferred position is carping from the sidelines: “If I had been elected President I would have….”
Knowing full well those proposals were impractical.
Now he has won, so has to retreat or reverse on them, e.g. The Wall, AGW, Special Prosecutor for Clinton…
In the meantime he has caused a widespread reaction against “Rhetoric Trump” (e.g. Paris deal, increased public awareness of AGW) and has morphed into cold light of day “Realistic Trump”

There is hope yet
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 24, 2016, 09:23:30 AM


I'm in extreme sympathy with the fears that I expect we are all feeling.

I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect of a country strong enough to close down this on any other web site,
I'm going to copy this to any other threads heading in this directon
Thanks
Terry

Good effort, I support the exclusion of politics from this forum. I'm of different opinion on the closing of the forum-issue. I'd say the denialati will IN ANY CASE try to force the shutdown the discussion over science on climate on all the forums everywhere, irrespective of political stance. Supporting the exclusion of politics here though, as some of them might still think there is such a thing as weather variance. After this I'm certain that some of them will see the forum as still being political, so attacks won't be totally prevented by sticking to science. Anyway excluding politics might make some of them think.

(This, after experiencing the hack on the SkS members forum, the denialists are evil.)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sleepy on November 24, 2016, 10:48:04 AM
I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect
I support the exclusion of politics from this forum.
Fair enough, I'm out.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 24, 2016, 11:18:36 AM
I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect
I support the exclusion of politics from this forum.
Fair enough, I'm out.
Heeyy... I said I support, but didn't mean that anyone should leave! At least it would be nice to keep it out from all the other sections than this "The Rest" which lately has been "Politics". As for the rest of the forum, I guess there's no stopping the politically minded people to write their garbage/bullshit on the scientific threads, so it's hard to totally ban the use of political bullshit there either. Too bad if you really took offense.

This is an open forum i think, but I could well leave too if there's a significant decrease in signal/noise-ratio in science threads. But now I'm dropping out of this discussion of  the fact-denier government of a nation with nukes.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 24, 2016, 11:48:09 AM
Maybe the republicans already have something on him? Why would they want someone that egoistic and unpredictable as president?

Edit; adding another odd thing, the letter that Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfvén sent to Mr T. Swedish government offices said the censored sections could interfere with Sweden’s international relations if they were disclosed.  ???

W%TF?? They can't even reveal the text of a congratulatory note??  Thanks for this info, Sleepy. I'm not that much into politics but the current trend of post-truth politics is so unnerving I'll take my former comment back. Shout the fuck out at those misanthropic asshats,  if that's your thing. I'll gladly get out if things get too heated, there are always old science papers to read, unless Trumpistas are going to burn the books and libraries.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 24, 2016, 12:19:56 PM
[url]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-constitution-liberals-231783[/url] ([url]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-constitution-liberals-231783[/url])

"The 229-year-old sentence liberals hope will sink Trump."

"An obscure line in the Constitution has become a rallying point for some legal experts and critics of Donald Trump, who fear the president-elect has little intention of making a clean break between his business interests and his new White House role."


I think this teaser deserves some explanation in the forum.  The Constitution says: "Known as the foreign Emoluments Clause, it states that “no person holding any office of profit or trust under them, shall, without the consent of the Congress, accept of any present, emolument, office, or title, of any kind whatever, from any king, prince, or foreign state.”

It is simply impossible for a man who owns diverse global assets to remain in strict compliance with this requirement.  Even a carefully-constructed "blind trust" won't really suffice.  When Putin facilitates the construction of Trump Tower Moscow, the "blind" part is a sham. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 24, 2016, 01:35:55 PM
I think that keeping the "politics of science" topics in the "other" category is fine.  I would....however.....warn against removing any political topics.  While politics should NOT be part of science....here in the US we have science deniers who run powerful committees.  So we have NO CHOICE but to speak out about the politics.

When "they" come chopping the budgets....you can bet on where they are going to look.  Remember....we had a state legislature that voted to all but IGNORE science (North Carolina).

And if you look at who DoDo Donald has on his list of "likely hires" for his cabinet....you can be sure that he is going to strip whatever he can from those trying to PREVENT more global warming.  Watch what he does....NOT what he says he's going to do.

His likely choice for Treasury Secretary is a wallstreet guy with close ties to the coal industry....and is an avowed climate denier.  Mitt Romney is a "do nothing because it's no big deal" person when it comes to global warming.  Steve Bannon his strategic advisor made a film about global warming as a hoax.  Trump is set to abolish as much of the climate change agenda of Obama as he can.  As I said before....there are several "prongs" against Trump...and climate scientists are one of them.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 24, 2016, 01:43:20 PM
<clip> Donald <clip> Watch what he does....NOT what he says he's going to do. <clip>
What, has someone imagined he would be an honest politician??
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 24, 2016, 04:28:41 PM
The first attached image indicates that science is fundamentally a moral enterprise as it follows the moral imperative to seek the truth; and I note that the scientism adopted by the IPCC in their climate change Assessment Report abdicates responsibility to pursue the whole truth.  The second image emphasizes that we use neural brains that have internalized patterns/metaphors based on bodies interaction with the world; & I note that if we are going to deal with the real risks of the world that we now live in we need to accept the ways that our minds have been pre-programmed.  The third image indicates that people's thought, action and language are dominated by metaphors; thus you should be aware that AI programmers are keenly aware of this fact and are training their programs to deal with people at this metaphorical level.  The fourth image presents Lakoff's Paradox as to why progressive fail, when they win the first three bullet points because they trip over the last bullet point of how to communicate important messages metaphorically.

See also:
https://georgelakoff.com/2016/07/23/understanding-trump-2/ (https://georgelakoff.com/2016/07/23/understanding-trump-2/)
&
http://aminotes.tumblr.com/post/7191027430/george-lakoff-on-metaphors-explanatory-journalism (http://aminotes.tumblr.com/post/7191027430/george-lakoff-on-metaphors-explanatory-journalism)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 24, 2016, 04:39:05 PM
I think it would be difficult to completely separate politics from the science of climate change. After all, a lot of this political discussion has at its core, concern for the environment. I'm all for limiting political discussion to the "off topic" category "the rest", but occasional comments of a political nature will inevitably pop up in the science threads.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 24, 2016, 04:51:13 PM


I'm in extreme sympathy with the fears that I expect we are all feeling.

I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect of a country strong enough to close down this on any other web site,
I'm going to copy this to any other threads heading in this directon
Thanks

Terry

Terry: Are you also concerned that political discussion is growing to the point where it detracts from the original intent of the Forum?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 24, 2016, 04:59:08 PM
I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect of a country strong enough to close down this on any other web site,

Terry...that is EXACTLY what a bully like Trump want's.  That is why he has ALWAYS acted the way he has.  To deal with a bully....you need to STAND UP TO HIM....EARLY AND OFTEN.  Otherwise....he will just keep going as though nothing has happened.

QUESTION:  How many press conferences has Trump had since he was elected?

ANSWER:  ZERO..ZIP.  He has had ONE MEETING with the NY Times that has been "on the record."  But he has had NO PRESS CONFERENCES with questions from a wide range of journalists.

Trump has CONNED the electorate.  Plain and simple.  The choice is to sit back and take it....or to PUSH HIM FOR TRUTH AND TRANSPARENCY.  Everyone is different.  But this is a simple choice for me.


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 24, 2016, 06:11:05 PM


I'm in extreme sympathy with the fears that I expect we are all feeling.

I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect of a country strong enough to close down this on any other web site,
I'm going to copy this to any other threads heading in this directon
Thanks
Terry

I've given this concern a lot of thought, and I respect your concern.  However, I totally disagree.

Certainly, political discussion needs to be kept to specific non-arctic areas of the forum, that's just goood management of any forum.

But if Trumpists seek to shut down this site, it won't be because of political criticism of Trump.  It will be precisely because we lay out the facts and science that point to extinction-promoting climate change.  For one recent example, it's Wipneus' work that spread virally, and shook up some lay people in the greater net.  It's careful, scientific work like that which upsets entrenched interests.

Conversely, anybody anywhere, in any setting, might feel that criticizing Trump is too dangerous, and risks some greater good. Summed over a whole society, that's exactly how tyrants remain in power.  The AIDS activists of the 80's got it right, Silence=Death.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on November 24, 2016, 06:22:00 PM
Pileus: You've mentioned once or twice that you don't think Trump will take office as President on 1/20/17. He's won the election or at least the electoral vote, why wouldn't he take office?

Several possible outcomes. 

As some have noted, it's obvious he doesn't want the job.  He wanted to be the "heroic loser" and parlay that into a continued PR and Twitter insurgency against Clinton, and his other various enemies.  He doesn't want to be in DC other than at one of his local properties.  He is going to absolutely hate being inside the beltway.  It's a prison for someone like Trump, who values being able to do whatever he wants, whenever he wants, to whomever he wants.  His ability to grab p****y will be greatly reduced.  So, in this scenario, he finds a way out before being sworn in.

Another is his health.  Ironically, the guy who accused Clinton of lacking "stamina" has none of his own.  He is a 70 year old, overweight, short tempered male that eats fast food.  He's a heart attack or stroke waiting to happen.  The pressure between now and late Jan is only going to exponentially increase.  It will wear him down.  I typically wish ill on no man, but I have no sympathy for this particular human.  He could hold hour long rallies with ease, but in the debates he ran out of steam after 15 minutes, every time.  The day to day presidency will be like the debates on steroids.  He's not going to last.

There are other scenarios that any inflammatory public figure must deal with, which I won't expand on here.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on November 24, 2016, 06:28:22 PM


I'm in extreme sympathy with the fears that I expect we are all feeling.

I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect of a country strong enough to close down this on any other web site,
I'm going to copy this to any other threads heading in this directon
Thanks
Terry

Reasonable concerns, but in the US the President or President elect serves at the pleasure of the citizenry, and the First Amendment and other protections enable freedom of expression and extensive criticism. 

At his essence Donald Trump's primary principles are fear and intimidation.  He successfully made enough Americans fear the notion of Muslims as a threat to safety and security, a threat that is overblown beyond belief and is simply a play to racism and xenophobia.  Similar induced fear of Mexicans, primarily from a crime and economic perspective.

Being afraid and intimidated is EXACTLY what Trump and his handlers want from all of us.  We should be relentless in our comments and critiques, and not back down an inch from this monster.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on November 25, 2016, 02:33:37 AM
Thanks for listening to my concerns.
The catch-phrase we'll be hearing for the next little while seems likely to be:


POLITICIZED SCIENCE


What this will actually comprise of is any scientific facts, theories, or hypotheses, that interfere with the political direction our incoming leadership may espouse.
 
Many of us might agree that the pairing of science and politics inevitably leads to progeny that look like science, but that are incapable of reproduction. These mulish hybrids, unable to develop their own branches of science, are eventually pruned from our body of learning, but policies that they beget can develop deep roots and have effects long after the parent has withered and died.


In an effort to separate the two, I think keeping science and politics in their own segregated sections is the minimum we should strive for.
We know that our discussions will be accused of political bias no matter how careful we are, but why provide ammunition to those who need to attack us to have any chance of believability when faced with facts that even insects and worms are reacting to?


Donald Trump is an ass.
Arctic ice is disappearing.


Both true, but perhaps each sentence is more powerful when not mentioned in close proximity to the other?
One truth is a subjective ad hominem. One truth is scientifically viable.
Why would we want to diminish the message that either sentence imparts.


Thanks
Terry



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 25, 2016, 07:38:33 AM

Why would we want to diminish the message that either sentence imparts.

Thanks
Terry

Terry: You've made your point crystal clear with this post and your point is well taken. We should exercise caution to not dilute the scientific message. What amount of political discussion on this Forum would be acceptable, in your opinion?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 25, 2016, 08:36:39 AM
Pileus: You've mentioned once or twice that you don't think Trump will take office as President on 1/20/17. He's won the election or at least the electoral vote, why wouldn't he take office?

Several possible outcomes. 


Pileus: I'm almost in complete agreement with you. The "heroic loser" makes sense to me. I'm sure he would have preferred that type of outcome. He would prefer to complain than to actually formulate policy. Being in a position of leadership opens him up to criticism, which he doesn't like, and he obviously cant complain about it.

I also agree that he'll have great difficulty with the confines of the office, as well as possible health problems.

I asked the question because I thought maybe there may be another reason for him to not take the oath of office on 1/20/17. I think he is woefully unprepared to be President.

I've stated before and I'll repeat that I think his Presidency will be a train wreck, which despite causing a lot of damage, could result in positive and perhaps even historic election results for Democrats in 2018 and 2020.

I've given a lot of thought to this, and I think it would be best but highly unlikely if he could be stopped before taking the oath of office. Obviously a long shot, but once he has taken the oath, if he is impeached or if he abdicates for whatever reason, Mike Pence will become President and I'd prefer to not see that happen.



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 25, 2016, 02:29:52 PM
Trump's approval rating is now 44%....the lowest of any incoming president since Gallup has done polling on it.

I would NOT BE SURPRISED....if that were to slip into the 30ish area (mid 20's to low 30's) over the next 12 months.

Take a look at what is happening in South Korea NOW:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/south-korea-president-approval-rating-drops_us_5837c35ee4b01ba68ac45569 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/south-korea-president-approval-rating-drops_us_5837c35ee4b01ba68ac45569)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Archimid on November 25, 2016, 04:01:30 PM
Being afraid and intimidated is EXACTLY what Trump and his handlers want from all of us.  We should be relentless in our comments and critiques, and not back down an inch from this monster.

Amen to that. His fear tactic is working too. The New York Times and Washington Post are already intimidated and are softening their language. That is exactly what Trump wants. Once we accept his racism and hate as part of everyday life it will grow and give him power. This will silence more and more people as well as embolden his racist army. If he start rounding up scapegoats (muslims/immigrants/Insert category that includes his enemies) good people will be more scared and his racist troll army emboldened.

This is not the first time this happens. People can't believe it because it has never happened to them, but that is certainly in the direction we are heading.

Now is that time that Martin Mueller warned us about:

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 25, 2016, 04:31:17 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/russian-propaganda-effort-helped-spread-%E2%80%98fake-news%E2%80%99-during-election-experts-say/ar-AAkJbXf?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/russian-propaganda-effort-helped-spread-%E2%80%98fake-news%E2%80%99-during-election-experts-say/ar-AAkJbXf?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Russian propaganda effort helped spread ‘fake news’ during election, experts say."

Extract: The flood of “fake news” this election season got support from a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy, say independent researchers who tracked the operation.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Xulonn on November 25, 2016, 06:06:53 PM
Trump's approval rating is now 44%....the lowest of any incoming president since Gallup has done polling on it.

I would NOT BE SURPRISED....if that were to slip into the 30ish area (mid 20's to low 30's) over the next 12 months...


Buddy,  I am a 75 y/o American living as an expat in Panama. I have lived in good times and have few regrets.  Although I am not wealthy, it appears that I will be able to live out my life in relative comfort.  I had a mild heart attack earlier this year, and realize that my time on this planet is limited - but I fear for the next generations.
 
I agree on the likelihood that Trumps ratings will drop steadily. I believe that less than 1/4 of the "eligible" U.S. voters actually voted for him, and he lost the popular vote by over 2 million.   

The American right wing - a corporate funded and run sector - has used hundreds of millions of dollars to fund the finest persuasive propaganda and media techniques money can buy.  With the new and very persuasive powers of the internet, they pushed propaganda like the highly successful "Put Hillary the liar in Jail" meme.  This Hillary and jail meme is a "huge" obsession with Trump fans, and he will lose support as he abandons this and other campaign promises.  Also, Trump is not "draining the Washington DC swamp of insiders and lobbyists" as he promised to do, but rather he expanding the boundaries of that swamp and increasing it's influence.

Trump cannot "bring the jobs back" because many of them don't exist.  He believes in stiffing workers and not honoring contracts, tries to cheat the unions at his hotels, and is not likely to support increasing the minimum wage requirements.  He buys foreign goods instead of buying U.S. made products.  Based on such facts, it is illogical - even insane - for people to believe that he would bring good-paying manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.  He can't - and he won't do these things - but how will his supporters react when he tries to pass the blame for his failures?

More and more semi-skilled and skilled manufacturing and repetitive jobs continue to disappear due to replacement by robotics and automation.  There are many people in the U.S. and elsewhere with less than average IQ - after all, and IQ of 100 is "average" and about one-third of the population is between 85 and 115 IQ.   (Like population issues, this topic is uncomfortable for many people to discuss.)  Many modern technology jobs require higher intelligence and sitting in a cubicle.  But even high-tech jobs are not immune to pay degradation.  I went from $55/hour as senior desktop support tech for Windows, and senior Novell network administrator in 2000 - to leaving the field when I couldn't get a job above $12/hr in 2001.  (And of course, being 60 y/o and slower and les efficient than the young hot-shot techies didn't help.)

People of "less than average" intelligence could in the past work at well-paying union and non-union manufacturing jobs, buy nice cars and houses, and live as friends and neighbors of many of the "more intelligent" segments of human societies.  In the futurist and utopian novels and books I read in my youth, the "workers" - who did the hard, dangerous and often boring manufacturing jobs - would be replaced by robots and automation - and that is exactly what is happening.  The fatal flaw in the reasoning of those futurist writings was that they expected the working class to be freed to pursue art, poetry and other intellectual and cultural pursuits - which requires that the "system" (governments?) would have to provide incomes to the displaced workers, because the wealth would be created by the machines, not the labor of humans. 

We all know how that turned out - rather than supporting the displaced workers, the wealth flowed - and continues to flow - into the bank accounts of the uber wealthy - the real "elites."  And while their accumulation of wealth continues to grow, they have managed to deflect the logic and reason about blue-collar job losses towards blaming "trade agreements" and ethnic and racial hatred.  The very people who have been duped and robbed of their livelihoods believe that they can and will be rich and successful themselves - if only they work with the Tea Party folks and elect and support the very people who took their jobs away - the corporate interests.  This is freaking insane - and I don't know what can be done about it - especially since the concept of politicians and judges as public servants rather than corporate toadies has been pretty much lost.  Do those rare remaining dedicated public servants like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and some of the new incoming Democratic women senators stand a chance of holding back the tide?  If their job performance is strong as they oppose the policies and practices of Trump and his incoming administration, will they inspire voters to send them "reinforcements" two years from now in the next election cycle?   

I could go on with the details, probably for many, many pages, but I will stop and summarize thusly: 

In the past few decades, there have been fundamental changes in the financial, manufacturing, and communication sectors of modern western society.  These changes have caused permanent  job losses for large numbers of people and the reduction or elimination of reasonable income for this segment.  Those people cannot - or will not - face reality and recognize the true causes of manufacturing job losses and the redistribution of wealth to the already wealthy.  Plus, human psychology hinders the ability of many to recognize the present and future threats of environmental degradation and AGW/CC. 

With narcissism and greed dominating politics more and more, sacrifice and a reduction in energy and resource use are not popular ideas.  Right-wing and nationalist liars are ascending to positions of power in many democracies around the world, leaving those who rely on reason, science, and logic to chart a course into the future with a very difficult task.  The legend of Sisyphus has taken on new meaning as I watch the Trump and other nationalists and greedy monsters replace leaders who at least tried to make even a small bit of progress towards dealing with the problems that we humans face.  Even if the U.S. turns the politics around a bit in two and four years, the boulders of positive progress are right now rolling back down the hill. 

(http://media.caglecartoons.com/media/cartoons/217/2013/01/21/125858_600.jpg) 

Cross-posted at Dr. Ricky Rood's Wunderground Climate Change Blog
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 26, 2016, 06:07:09 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republicans-democrats-vote-coalition_us_583893a1e4b000af95ee2e52?bygy14i (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republicans-democrats-vote-coalition_us_583893a1e4b000af95ee2e52?bygy14i)

"The Big Lesson From 2016 Is That Neither Party Has A Winning Vote Coalition."

"The Obama coalition turned out to be pretty weak, but Trump’s might be even weaker."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 26, 2016, 06:56:09 PM
The linked Huntington Post article is entitled: "8 New Reasons The Electoral College Shouldn’t Vote For Trump", argues that Trump is not the president elect until the electoral college makes him so.  Who knows how much more dirt (in addition to the 8 reasons cited in the article) will come out on this man before the Dec 19 2016 vote?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/davidhalperin/8-new-reasons-the-elector_b_13248386.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/davidhalperin/8-new-reasons-the-elector_b_13248386.html)


Extract: "Hamilton argued for the electoral college system in these terms: “The process of election affords a moral certainty, that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.” The electors have not just a right, but an obligation, not to vote for a candidate lacking such qualifications.

But top White House ethics lawyers for both President Obama and President George W. Bush have said the electoral college should reject Trump unless he sells his business and puts his wealth in a blind trust — because otherwise his presidency will be on a collision course with the Constitution.

Article 1, Section 9 of the Constitution prohibits U.S. office holders from accepting “any present, emolument, office, or title, of any kind whatever, from any king, prince, or foreign state.” Former Obama White House lawyer Norm Eisen explained to ThinkProgress that “the founders did not want any foreign payments to the president. Period.”  Room rental fees by foreign governments to the Trump hotel in Washington, or any other Trump hotel, would constitute such payments.  Harvard Law Professor Laurence Tribe told ThinkProgress that violation of this constitutional provision “would qualify as one of the ‘high Crimes and Misdemeanors’ that would require Trump to be ‘removed from Office.’”

In other words, from a constitutional perspective, the Trump presidency would be dead on arrival.
Richard Painter, the chief ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush White House, offered a similar view of Trump’s stance in an appearance on CNN:  “I don’t think the electoral college can vote for someone to become president if he’s going to be in violation of the Constitution on day one and hasn’t assured us he’s not in violation.”

Trump insisted in his New York Times interview that “I don’t want there to be a conflict of interest.” But he asserted the position that “the law is totally on my side, meaning, the president can’t have a conflict of interest” and opined that “in theory I could run my business perfectly, and then run the country perfectly.”

Even if a miracle occurred and enough electors came together to deny Trump 270 votes, the matter would go to Congress, whose GOP leaders now seem to have fallen in love with the man so many of them were running away from just weeks ago; Congress might well hand the election to Trump anyway. But electors could still do their job, vote their consciences, and force Congress to make the decision about whether to install Trump.

In any case, I’m not arguing what’s likely. I’m arguing that we are not powerless."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 26, 2016, 07:58:45 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Clinton campaign will participate in Wisconsin recount, with an eye on ‘outside interference,’ lawyer says".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/11/26/clinton-campaign-will-participate-in-wisconsin-recount-with-an-eye-on-outside-interference-lawyer-says/?utm_term=.3f30576632e7 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/11/26/clinton-campaign-will-participate-in-wisconsin-recount-with-an-eye-on-outside-interference-lawyer-says/?utm_term=.3f30576632e7)

Extract: "According to New York magazine, the group found that Clinton “received 7 percent fewer votes in counties that relied on electronic-voting machines compared with counties that used optical scanners and paper ballots,” and that based on that “statistical analysis, Clinton may have been denied as many as 30,000 votes; she lost Wisconsin by 27,000.”

J. Alex Halderman, one of the academics reportedly involved, later wrote on Medium that the deviations were “probably not” the result of a cyberattack but that “the only way to know whether a cyberattack changed the result is to closely examine the available physical evidence  —  paper ballots and voting equipment in critical states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.”
...
Brian Fallon, a spokesman for the Clinton campaign, rejected the notion that the campaign’s actions might suggest to some that it was not accepting the election results.

“The post says we would not have sought the recount on our own, that we see no evidence of tampering so far, and acknowledge the margin in Michigan, which is the tightest of the three, exceeds the largest deficit ever overcome in a recount,” Fallon wrote to The Washington Post. “We note we are guarding our prerogatives now that someone else has launched a recount. Not sure what you could point to to suggest there is anything here that calls the results into question.”"
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 27, 2016, 03:59:14 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Donald Trump and the Lawsuit Presidency".  It looks like Trump's legal problems are only going to continue:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/25/opinion/donald-trump-and-the-lawsuit-presidency.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/25/opinion/donald-trump-and-the-lawsuit-presidency.html?_r=0)

Extract: "... Mr. Trump could find himself in a near-constant stream of court fights while he tries to focus on running the country. Even in advance of any decisions, there is a degree of poetic justice here, since the scorched-earth approach has long been standard practice for Mr. Trump; as a businessman, he thrived on no-holds-barred legal conflict and hauled out the heavy artillery for even minor disputes. Less than three weeks before the election, he threatened to sue at least 11 women who had recently come forward with allegations that he sexually assaulted them.

Now consider all the potential conflicts of interest if this litigiousness should come to, or from, the Oval Office. What happens if there is litigation involving a building he leases from the federal government? Or if the Internal Revenue Service — an executive-branch agency — recommends civil or criminal penalties based on an audit of Mr. Trump’s taxes?"
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 27, 2016, 05:16:18 AM
In any case, I’m not arguing what’s likely. I’m arguing that we are not powerless."


Agreed. The recounts in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan will most likely not change the outcome of the election, unless evidence of hacking is clearly found. Despite the fact that Trump reserved the right to question the election results if he lost, he now calls the recount push a "scam."

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-slams-recount-push-as-a-scam-says-election-is-over/ar-AAkNPtC?ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-slams-recount-push-as-a-scam-says-election-is-over/ar-AAkNPtC?ocid=spartandhp)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 27, 2016, 05:22:49 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/colorado-river-mexico-water-sharing-trump-231811 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/colorado-river-mexico-water-sharing-trump-231811)

"Trump win churns U.S.-Mexico water talks."

"Negotiators from both nations are hustling to finish a new agreement for sharing water from the Colorado River — before President Barack Obama leaves office."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 27, 2016, 05:48:54 PM
I'm sure we were all expecting this:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38124358 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38124358)

"Trump attacks Clinton over Wisconsin vote recount."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 27, 2016, 06:06:28 PM
http://www.france24.com/en/f24-interview/20161118-trump-putin-honeymoon-will-soon-end-says-russian-opposition-figure (http://www.france24.com/en/f24-interview/20161118-trump-putin-honeymoon-will-soon-end-says-russian-opposition-figure)

"Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a Russian businessman and staunch opponent of President Vladimir Putin, tells FRANCE 24 that the mutual admiration between Putin and Donald Trump expressed on the US campaign trail is about to end."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 27, 2016, 08:27:02 PM
The linked article is entitled: "‘A bunch of crybabies’: Trump camp derides Clinton campaign decision to join recount effort".  The article indicates that the Trump camp is using intimidation tactics (threatening to prosecute Hillary) to circumvent democratic processes otherwise protected by law:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/27/trump-calls-recount-efforts-sad-declares-nothing-will-change/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/27/trump-calls-recount-efforts-sad-declares-nothing-will-change/)

Extract: "On "State of the Union," Conway said Trump was not focused on prosecuting Clinton but wouldn't rule it out — which she said indicated that Trump was being "incredibly gracious and magnanimous" to Clinton.

“There is a respect there. And there is a respect for the process," Conway said. "Which is why this recount by Jill Stein and Hillary Clinton is ridiculous. They have to decide whether they’re going to interfere [in the last eight weeks of Obama’s presidency] or whether they’re going to be a bunch of crybabies.""
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 27, 2016, 08:38:23 PM

Extract: "On "State of the Union," Conway said Trump was not focused on prosecuting Clinton but wouldn't rule it out — which she said indicated that Trump was being "incredibly gracious and magnanimous" to Clinton.


"Incredibly gracious and magnanimous!" It's as if Trump has granted Clinton some "dispensation". He and his team should have left this issue alone or simply say that the other candidates were within their rights to request a recount.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 01:44:36 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Trump falsely claims he only lost popular vote because ‘millions’ voted illegally".  If Trump feels that there were millions of illegal votes why doesn't he have the integrity to fund recounts like Jill Stein has done in Wisconsin and will soon do in Michigan and Pennsylvania?

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article117390498.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article117390498.html)

Extract: "In a tweet Sunday afternoon, President-elect Donald Trump said he won the popular vote in Nov. 8’s election if “you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally.”

There has been no evidence of the widespread voter fraud that would have had to taken place to give Clinton millions of illegitimate votes."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 02:25:32 AM
As a follow-up on my last post the following linked article is entitled: “Donald Trump, editor-in-chief of the fake news movement”.


http://qz.com/846551/donald-trump-editor-in-chief-of-the-fake-news-movement/ (http://qz.com/846551/donald-trump-editor-in-chief-of-the-fake-news-movement/)


Extract: “Fake news, we have learned over the past several weeks, is spread easily by profiteers, propagandists, and performance artists. But they have nothing on the next president of the United States.
Donald Trump just made an extraordinary claim on Twitter:

“In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally”

That’s simply untrue.


It may be tempting to dismiss Trump’s tweet as just another lie by a man who has made a career of them. But it’s worth analyzing the origins of his latest unfounded claim as a case study in how misinformation can easily spread into the mainstream.

The idea that so many people voted illegally? Trump didn’t make it up. Somebody else did.

The claim appears to have originated with Gregg Phillips, who identifies himself online as a resident of Austin, Texas, and the founder of an app for reporting voter fraud. A few days after the election, he tweeted that more than 3 million people had voted illegally, citing an “analysis” that he hasn’t released ...”

Trump has in the past defended his false statements by saying, “All I know is what’s on the internet.” Now he is positioning himself as editor-in-chief of the fake news movement, soon to be bolstered the imprimatur of the US presidency. “

See also:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-his-team-attack-attempts-to-recount-ballots-in-three-states-1480268403 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-his-team-attack-attempts-to-recount-ballots-in-three-states-1480268403)

&

http://time.com/4582868/donald-trump-people-illegally-voted-election/ (http://time.com/4582868/donald-trump-people-illegally-voted-election/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 03:10:56 AM
The linked "The Daily Beast" article on our "Kleptocracy Crisis" is entitled: “The People Chose Hillary Clinton. Now We Need To Stop Donald Trump From Trashing Our Democracy”.  Will the electoral college elect such a man the President of the USA when the Founding Fathers established the college to make just such a decision?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/11/27/the-people-chose-hillary-clinton-now-we-need-to-stop-donald-trump-from-trashing-our-democracy.html (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/11/27/the-people-chose-hillary-clinton-now-we-need-to-stop-donald-trump-from-trashing-our-democracy.html)


Extract: “I hate to hear myself saying things like the electors shouldn’t vote for the person who did win under the rules. I don’t know if I can quite endorse that, yet. But by all means, these recounts should be pursued—whatever Jill Stein’s motives here, she’s stumbled into doing something right for once. Democrats from Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi on down should be raising every question they can about Trump’s legitimacy and conflicts. 

Three simple points. He was not the choice of the people; he prevailed with the help of a foreign power, a power to which he will clearly be indebted; and he tells us straight up that he will do as he pleases with his business and that he is above the law. 

The Democrats ought to be able to stand up and oppose that—not in the name of party, but in the name of country. The press ought to, too—not in the name of “liberalism,” but in the name of the values we purport to defend. We are in a crisis. The next few weeks will show us who’s up to recognizing and acting on it.”
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: JMP on November 28, 2016, 05:42:58 AM
The lies are intolerable! and the election news has been very upsetting.

Screw the popular vote even... What is the purpose of the Electoral College if not to save the world from suffering under a President such as Trump? 

It's purpose is certainly not to go AGAINST the popular vote.  I find it almost as alarming that so many are not awake to the principles and intent of the US Constitution, as Trump being President versus Clinton.  It is of course most alarming however that Science based reality is not paramount in either... any case but that's digression.

I can find happiness in an imperfect world of course... but to constantly read the lies put forth nearly constantly nowadays is almost unbearable.  Now, if the electors vote as "faithless" against Trump they may face potential ruin.   What are we going to do?  I urge everyone to write their electors, sign the petitions, email their congressional representative, do all you can.  If you don't live in the US write to people anyway.  How can we just sit by and let this happen?  Whether we stop it or not, may matter less than the principal of doing all that we can... imho, because the inevitable consequences seem so dire.  But, if we're gonna err let's be wrong still having done all that we could. 

Don't we gotta do something? 

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/meet-the-hamilton-electors-hoping-for-an-electoral-college-revolt/508433/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/meet-the-hamilton-electors-hoping-for-an-electoral-college-revolt/508433/)

"they suggest a “compromise candidate”—a Republican they find less objectionable than Trump, such as former Republican nominee Mitt Romney or Ohio Governor John Kasich. (Though those options are just placeholders; they said it should be up to the Republican electors to pick a new standard-bearer.)"

   
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 28, 2016, 06:40:19 AM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-claims-%E2%80%98serious-voter-fraud%E2%80%99-in-3-states/ar-AAkPFJx?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-claims-%E2%80%98serious-voter-fraud%E2%80%99-in-3-states/ar-AAkPFJx?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Trump claims ‘serious voter fraud’ in 3 states ."

The three states: Virginia, New Hampshire and California. With every new twitter rant, Trump continues to prove that he is unfit to be President. Although I thought differently immediately after the election, it's clear the best way to stop Trump is before 1/20/17.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 28, 2016, 06:50:51 AM
Missed this one. Will the lone Trump voter admit it?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 28, 2016, 06:58:27 AM
- implement laws that treat political lies as what they are; "fraud"

I agree with most of what you suggest.  My favorite....is the one you suggested above.

We have hundreds of thousands of people in prison for "MINOR SHIT".  Meanwhile....we have people walking the streets that have suggested:

1)  tobacco products are fine......which caused MILLIONS OF DEATHS
2)  global warming is a hoax......which will cost us TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS for waiting to fix it
3)  lead paint is fine....only to find out later it isn't
4)  packaging and selling mortgages that were worthless....costing billions of dollars

As a CIVIILIZED SOCIETY we can't ALLOW people to lie.  VERY SIMPLE.  TELL THE F#####G truth about matters of PUBLIC POLICY or you will be prosecuted.

But think about this:  We also have a FAKE NEWS CHANNEL THAT LIES ON A DAILY BASIS.  In fact....THEY HAVE TRIED TO THROW THE CURRENT ELECTION.

FOX News is not much better than listening to Russian television.  It's a disgrace to democracy.

If we manage to get through this election.......it won't be because of FOX News did any JOURNALISM.

Most of politics is a lie, or at least slanting the facts to suit one's views. Sorry to burst your bubble, but the point of the 1st amendment is to protect speech that is unpopular and which the majority disagrees with. Laws against libel protect persons accused of things that are not true (lies). The antidote for speech you don't like is to speak up and support views you do like. I am shocked that the same people who fought for free speech in the 1960s are now trying to shut it down.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 28, 2016, 07:09:12 AM

The only way to repair our dysfunctional system, is a return to the center, a return to civility and bipartisanship. So I ask, what is the quickest way to return to some semblance of a working political system? A Hillary Clinton presidency? I seriously doubt it and when it comes to election day, I'm not sure I'll be able to vote for her. There is no "none of the above" selection on the ballot, but there should be and I think that may be the ultimate protest vote.

Too bad we weren't given a choice. :(
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 28, 2016, 07:16:49 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Republican Donald Trump Is Elected President Of United States And Global Markets Plunge".  There is a price to be paid for such arrogant ignorance:


So what now that the stock market is at record highs?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 28, 2016, 07:17:14 AM

The only way to repair our dysfunctional system, is a return to the center, a return to civility and bipartisanship. So I ask, what is the quickest way to return to some semblance of a working political system? A Hillary Clinton presidency? I seriously doubt it and when it comes to election day, I'm not sure I'll be able to vote for her. There is no "none of the above" selection on the ballot, but there should be and I think that may be the ultimate protest vote.

Too bad we weren't given a choice. :(

FTB: Hindsight is 20/20! Knowing what I know now, I think I would have bypassed the moral conflict I felt before the election. Almost three weeks after the election, it's clear Clinton was the only vote that made sense. I did vote for Clinton anyway and I wish she would have won.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 28, 2016, 12:58:12 PM
Most of politics is a lie, or at least slanting the facts to suit one's views. Sorry to burst your bubble, but the point of the 1st amendment is to protect speech that is unpopular and which the majority disagrees with. Laws against libel protect persons accused of things that are not true (lies).

Most politics doesn't HAVE TO BE A LIE.  For many....it is.  Trump is just happens to be the best example of it.  In fact....one of my points is that THE PRESS.....should be the primary "guardian and insurer" of the truth.....AND...of free speech. 

I'm a BIG PROPONENT and believer in the first amendment of the freedom of speech AND the press. And they (both individuals AND the press) should use it in a strong manner (on both sides of the political divide).    But lying....should be EXPOSED QUICKLY AND FORECFULLY.  FOX News is just one such OBVIOUS EXAMPLE.  IF you look at FOX News' coverage of global warming it is EMBARRASSING.  They use lies....and a COMPLETE AVOIDANCE OF HISTORICAL AND SCIENTIFIC FACT to cover global warming.  Except for the last TWO YEARS.....apparently they saw the need to "cover their ass" so they have carved out Sheppard Smith to speak on "behalf" of global warming in his 5% or less of the total FOX News.  The other 95% of FOX pundits and fake journalists continue to lie about global warming.

The antidote for speech you don't like is to speak up and support views you do like. I am shocked that the same people who fought for free speech in the 1960s are now trying to shut it down.

The only antidote for lies....is to expose them.  There is an OCEAN OF DIFFERENCE between views someone doesn't like.....and views that are being supported BY LIES OR CONVENIENT LACK OF FACTS.  We don't have a "choice" in FACTS.   FACTS ARE FACTS.  If it's 80 degrees in the room based on 3 different thermometers.....it's 80 degrees....PERIOD.  Even if FOX wants it to be 70 degrees BASED ON THEIR OPINION AS WELL AS ZERO FACTS AND RESEARCH,.   FOX and TRUMP are a lot alike:  They make up whatever they want the answer to be.

Trump and FOX are just the most obvious examples of lying and an almost total lack of fact based research.  I would LOVE to have a "fiscally conservative" based news channel.  BUT IT NEEDS TO BE BASED ON FACTS......not the views of an "unidentified third party who just happened to be another FOX pundit."

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 28, 2016, 01:27:25 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Republican Donald Trump Is Elected President Of United States And Global Markets Plunge".  There is a price to be paid for such arrogant ignorance

So what now that the stock market is at record highs?


Why is the stock market at record highs?  Glad you asked:

1)  GDP last quarter was 2.9%
2)  Unemployment is down to 4.9% (down from 8.3% at the end of the first full month Obama took office)
3)  Jobless claims have had 90 straight months of less than 300,000 claims.....a record that goes back to 1970 when the job market was 66,000,000 rather than the 137,000,000 it is now.
4)  Interest rates are expected to rise.....and money has been, and will continue to come OUT of the bond market and head INTO the stock market as interest rates continue to SLOWLY RISE.

THAT.....is why the stock market is up. 

When Obama came into office.....the Bush economy was losing 800,000 JOBS A MONTH.  In other words...George wrecked the Ferrari by crashing into a concrete wall...and then handed the keys to Obama and said:  "Good luck....she's not running so great right now."

Now that the car has been repaired and running in good shape......Trump doesn't have any excuses.  So if he wrecks it again....IT'S ON HIM. 


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 04:51:30 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Republican Donald Trump Is Elected President Of United States And Global Markets Plunge".  There is a price to be paid for such arrogant ignorance

So what now that the stock market is at record highs?


Why is the stock market at record highs?  Glad you asked:
...
Now that the car has been repaired and running in good shape......Trump doesn't have any excuses.  So if he wrecks it again....IT'S ON HIM. 

In addition to Buddy's valid points, the stock market is also up because:

1) The market indices are skewed towards fossil fuel companies, so this is a Faustian Bargain.
2) Trump will not crack-down on cheating by banks (like that by Wells Fargo), so the bank stock rebounded in another Faustian Bargain.
3) In order to pay for his planned infrastructure spending spree Trump will use Public Private Partnerships and associated tax breaks for the rich to turn America into a kleptocracy so that all the common goods are transferred to the rich; which is another Faustian Bargain.

I could go on, but my basic point is that all too many people are prepared to sell their souls to the devil for a temporary sugar rush (which is exactly why we are currently in a climate change crisis).
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Archimid on November 28, 2016, 05:40:29 PM
I could go on, but my basic point is that all too many people are prepared to sell their souls to the devil for a temporary sugar rush.

Yep, followed by the inevitable crash. These people are blinded by a life of privilege. Very few know suffering first hand. They honestly think there  can be infinite growth and believe people are infinite agents in the economy. They also believe people are above and apart of nature. Science tells us otherwise, but they are not scientists.



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 07:07:12 PM
I could go on, but my basic point is that all too many people are prepared to sell their souls to the devil for a temporary sugar rush.


Yep, followed by the inevitable crash. These people are blinded by a life of privilege. Very few know suffering first hand. They honestly think there  can be infinite growth and believe people are infinite agents in the economy. They also believe people are above and apart of nature. Science tells us otherwise, but they are not scientists.



Even the Wall Street Journal is guarded about the pending sugar rush from Trump's pending reality-show style of governance, as indicated in the linked article entitled: "Will Political Reality Derail Markets’ Bet on Donald Trump?".

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-safe-is-the-market-bet-on-donald-trump-1480350589 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-safe-is-the-market-bet-on-donald-trump-1480350589)

Extract: "So far, the financial markets love the coming Donald Trump presidency, and why not? They look at the combination of a big tax cut, big infrastructure spending and lower regulations and see economic stimulus all around—big-league stimulus, as the president-elect might say.
Less obvious is the implicit assumption the markets are making that two looming problems with all this stimulation won’t short-circuit the good times. The first is that Mr. Trump won’t set off a crippling global trade war with some of his more protectionist impulses, and the second is that the federal budget deficit won’t grow into the kind of problem that can derail everything else."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on November 28, 2016, 07:47:34 PM
Pileus: I'm almost in complete agreement with you. The "heroic loser" makes sense to me. I'm sure he would have preferred that type of outcome. He would prefer to complain than to actually formulate policy. Being in a position of leadership opens him up to criticism, which he doesn't like, and he obviously cant complain about it.

I also agree that he'll have great difficulty with the confines of the office, as well as possible health problems.

I asked the question because I thought maybe there may be another reason for him to not take the oath of office on 1/20/17. I think he is woefully unprepared to be President.

I've stated before and I'll repeat that I think his Presidency will be a train wreck, which despite causing a lot of damage, could result in positive and perhaps even historic election results for Democrats in 2018 and 2020.

I've given a lot of thought to this, and I think it would be best but highly unlikely if he could be stopped before taking the oath of office. Obviously a long shot, but once he has taken the oath, if he is impeached or if he abdicates for whatever reason, Mike Pence will become President and I'd prefer to not see that happen.

We are on the same page, and have highlighted what is the essence of the situation and solution.

Trump is a conspiracy theorist, and believes whatever he sees on Twitter and Facebook, or what he hears from his sycophants. He does not operate in the world of facts.  He's basically the outcome of what you would expect from 30+ years of conservative fact-free talk radio, which was carried over to TV (Fox News) and the Internet, which of all the mediums has amplified the consequences.

We here are familiar with it...It's the climate change "debate" on steriods.  Discard fact, logic, science, and informed thinking and policy for conspiracies, rumors, gossip, and turn that into attacks and condemnation of the people that operate in a world of fact, truth, science, and information.  People like Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich and Frank Luntz are the founding fathers of this philosophy.  They started this garbage back in the mid 90s, to vilify anyone that didn't agree with the "conservative" mindset and started the use of repeating buzz words and phrases until most people accept them as "fact" or stop pushing back.

It's absolutely horrifying to think that Trump becomes President of the US.  A conspiracy theorist who doesn't care about information and facts.  Absurd, and not just for climate change.

My hope is that he self-destructs before Jan 20, or people in the right places step up and leverage whatever peaceful mechanism is available to prevent him taking the oath of office.



Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 28, 2016, 08:40:25 PM
So.....here we are, almost 3 weeks AFTER the election and still no press conference WITH QUESTIONS.

1)  Is he afraid of questions?
2)  Does he NOT want to talk about having less votes than Clinton? Embarrassed?
3)  Is he like the dog who finally caught up to the car.....and now doesn't know what to do?

Where are you Dimwit Donny?  Looking forward to his first press conference with questions.  Should be entertaining......

And when is he going to show his tax returns?....... ;)


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 10:15:00 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Wisconsin rejects hand recount mandate; Stein to sue".  The game is afoot:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/28/elections-staff-layout-recount-timeline/94539210/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/28/elections-staff-layout-recount-timeline/94539210/)

Extract: "The Wisconsin Elections Commission set a timetable Monday for a recount of the presidential election but rejected a request to require a count by hand made by Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who quickly responded that she would sue.

Also Monday, Stein filed a lawsuit in Pennsylvania to force a recount there and her supporters began filing recount requests at the precinct level there. Stein — who received just a tiny piece of the vote —also plans to ask for a recount in Michigan on Wednesday.

Stein has taken in $6.5 million since Wednesday through an online fundraising blitz to fund her recount efforts."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 10:44:48 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Here Are The Problems With The Trump Team's Voter Fraud Evidence".  I doubt that such a flip-flopper will make an effective president (assuming that the Electoral College seats him):

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/28/503628803/here-are-the-problems-with-the-trump-teams-voter-fraud-evidence (http://www.npr.org/2016/11/28/503628803/here-are-the-problems-with-the-trump-teams-voter-fraud-evidence)

Extract: "Consider it another Trump flip-flop: back in October, Donald Trump told a crowd, "I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election, if I win."

Trump went on to decisively win the Electoral College, but now he's questioning the results anyway. In a tweet this weekend, the president-elect alleged — providing zero evidence — that "millions of people" voted illegally, and that that's the reason Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.

On a Monday morning phone call, the Trump team tried to back up the claim when NPR's Tamara Keith asked them for corroborating evidence. However, nothing they cited really made that case."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 29, 2016, 12:34:25 AM

My hope is that he self-destructs before Jan 20, or people in the right places step up and leverage whatever peaceful mechanism is available to prevent him taking the oath of office.


That is my hope as well. He should continue with his twitter rants, by displaying a lack of maturity, the electors may be hard pressed to vote for him.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 29, 2016, 12:41:26 AM

And when is he going to show his tax returns?....... ;)


No press conference, no tax returns, questionable blind trust, and mostly terrible cabinet appointments so far. Oops, forget about the latest twitter rant! Making bold claims about voter fraud. The list goes on.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 29, 2016, 12:49:48 AM
If The Donald can't take the media heat, maybe he should get out of the kitchen:


http://time.com/4583324/why-donald-trumps-election-tweets-are-troubling/ (http://time.com/4583324/why-donald-trumps-election-tweets-are-troubling/)

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/11/donald-trump-and-shiny-object-strategy (http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/11/donald-trump-and-shiny-object-strategy)

http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/11/the-trump-two-step/508643/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/11/the-trump-two-step/508643/)

http://time.com/4584098/donald-trump-presidential-crash-course/ (http://time.com/4584098/donald-trump-presidential-crash-course/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on November 29, 2016, 01:12:46 AM
So.....here we are, almost 3 weeks AFTER the election and still no press conference WITH QUESTIONS.

1)  Is he afraid of questions?
2)  Does he NOT want to talk about having less votes than Clinton? Embarrassed?
3)  Is he like the dog who finally caught up to the car.....and now doesn't know what to do?

Where are you Dimwit Donny?  Looking forward to his first press conference with questions.  Should be entertaining......

And when is he going to show his tax returns?....... ;)

He won't do many press conferences.  He has no depth of understanding of the issues, and the press will treat him differently WRT to policy if and when he is president.  He has no stamina, and can't control his temper, and he will lash out at the press in real time.  He will look bad in front of the world.  And the offending members of the press will get banned from the press corp, until it's only Fox News and Brietbart.  And then we just have full on Soviet style disinformation.  That's what they want.

And imagine Trump giving a state of the Union address, or speaking at the UN, or responding to the first mass shooting on his watch.  It will be horrifying and unsettling.  Zero confidence will be inspired.

We will never see his tax returns, because they would show much less wealth than he claims, and likely involvement with Russian interests.  The media and public would be all over it.  Hopefully some good citizen comes forward with an oppo drop, on his taxes or something else that would place him on a very negative and defensive posture, that truly compromises his ability to carry out the US Constitutional duties of president.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 29, 2016, 02:09:03 AM
Nate Silverman explains "Why I Support An Election Audit, Even Though It’s Unlikely To Change The Outcome" in the linked article:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-i-support-an-election-audit-even-though-its-unlikely-to-change-the-outcome/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-i-support-an-election-audit-even-though-its-unlikely-to-change-the-outcome/)

Extract: "In many ways, undertaking an audit of the election results is tantamount to performing a test for a rare but potentially fatal disease.
...
An audit very probably won’t detect a conspiracy, but it will reveal information about our voting systems. FiveThirtyEight and most other American news organizations are founded on the premise that more information is better, even if it risks being misinterpreted. I’ve never questioned that premise more than I have over the course of this election. But over the next four years, we’re all going to have to get used to an environment in which nuggets of insight come buried in mounds of misinformation. An audit is as good a place as any to start."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on November 29, 2016, 04:30:11 AM
The POTUS elect, again of the United States, is in the midst of an epic meltdown currently on Twitter.

On the subject of voter fraud.  He actually may have an aneurysm this evening.

Horrifying that this thing was elected president of the US.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 29, 2016, 04:45:12 AM
I can't wait for next few months.  I clearly wish the outcome would have been different.....but now we have to deal with the cards we have.

I want to see who the first reporter is that will publicly call him out to his face in a press conference or interview for lying.  It may take a few months after he starts.....but that day will come.

He has such a weak pool of talent to pull from for his cabinet and staff......plus he is such a weak player.....this could really get ugly.

And now.....on his secretary of state nominee.....he is screwed.    If he chooses Mitt.....he will have a VERY divided team.  If he chooses Rudy......he will have someone with a horrible temperament like his own.  Petreus brings in some very bad baggage of his own.  Senator Corker may come to his rescue......we'll see.

I feel like I am watching the Indy 500 waiting for a BIG wreck.


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 29, 2016, 03:20:24 PM
Here's a good video of Jim Grant.....he is an "interest rate guru" (who voted for Trump by the way).  But I watch his views on INTEREST RATES closely.

I expect the equity markets to move UP over the coming years as interest rates rise (pushing money OUT of bond markets...and into the waiting arms of the stock market).  Like any LONG TERM RISE...there will be bouts of INTERMEDIATE DOWNTURNS....but the long term trajectory is up.  Markets are SUPPLY AND DEMAND MECHANISMS.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/09f8e391-c175-363d-9369-23160eaa5360/donald-trump-will-come-to.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/09f8e391-c175-363d-9369-23160eaa5360/donald-trump-will-come-to.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 29, 2016, 03:26:12 PM
All you need to do....is insert Donald's picture.  The story will likely be much the same:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-koreas-park-address-nation-amid-political-crisis-042033609.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-koreas-park-address-nation-amid-political-crisis-042033609.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 29, 2016, 05:17:19 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Priebus confirms that climate denial will be the official policy of Trump’s administration".  Those hoping the The Donald would show some reasonable behavior about climate change, once he is president, are going to be in for a rude awakening:

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-climate-change-bunk-28c5c44cee

Extract: "Reince Priebus tells Fox News that climate science denial is Trump’s ‘default position.’


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 29, 2016, 07:54:34 PM
One thing of interest for me to watch....is going to be who Trump appoints as Sec of State.  I think it will either be Petreus or Guilianni or Corker (unless Corker doesn't want the job).

I don't think he will appoint Mitt....but he WILL try to get Mitt to "apologize" in order to be considered.  I actually think that Trump would do that.   Trump is TERRIBLY sensitive and thin skinned...and I doubt he has forgotten all the "wonderful" things that Mitt said about him.  He probably wants Mitt to beg for the job....and then cut him off at the knees.

Plus...Mitt's got an oversized ego....he will figure he can apologize and then be a shoe in for the job.

It will be fascinating to watch.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on November 30, 2016, 12:30:26 AM
Buddy - I like the concept of "think" skinned !!   His reactivity to the slightest provocation is scary.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 30, 2016, 02:27:18 AM
Buddy - I like the concept of "think" skinned !!

Fixed....thanks.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on November 30, 2016, 02:21:22 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-electoral-college-231980 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-electoral-college-231980)

"Anti-Trump forces launch attack on Electoral College."

"The last-ditch effort to stop Donald Trump is gaining momentum."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on November 30, 2016, 10:53:32 PM
Sarah Palin being considered for Secretary of the VA.  That is quite the topper.  Someone who can't even speak English.....put together two coherent sentences.......with a cabinet position.

Anybody want to buy some SWAMPLAND?  At first they were going to drain it.....NOW....they are expanding it instead.....and making it into an amusement park.

Comedians are going to be working overtime...  Maybe Jon Stewart will come back.

Speaking of overtime....  The last quarters GDP was revised UP to 3.2% in the US from 2.9%.  Unlike Obama who was handed the Ferrari after it bashed into telephone pole.....I guess Dimwit Donnie will be handed an economy that is humming right along with a brand new Ferrari.  Unemployment at 4.9%....housing looking strong.

He better not screw this one up..... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 30, 2016, 11:43:46 PM
[url]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-electoral-college-231980[/url] ([url]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-electoral-college-231980[/url])

"Anti-Trump forces launch attack on Electoral College."

"The last-ditch effort to stop Donald Trump is gaining momentum."


See the linked article entitled: "Electoral College voters form group to block Trump presidency

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/308161-electoral-college-voters-form-group-to-block-trump-presidency (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/308161-electoral-college-voters-form-group-to-block-trump-presidency)

Extract: "Electoral College voters based in Colorado have formed a political non-profit to block Donald Trump from the presidency."

Also, see the linked article entitled: "Make the Electoral College great again: let "conscientious electors" do their jobs".

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/11/29/13771920/electoral-college-faithless-electors-independent-trump (http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/11/29/13771920/electoral-college-faithless-electors-independent-trump)

&

http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed68.asp (http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed68.asp)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 01, 2016, 12:44:24 AM
The linked article is entitled: "With one phone call, Donald Trump might have upturned America’s relationship with both Pakistan and India."  This provides just one example that Trump is a loose cannon:


https://newrepublic.com/minutes/139082/one-phone-call-donald-trump-might-upturned-americas-relationship-pakistan-india

Extract: "Going against State Department protocol, the president-elect continues to speak to foreign leaders on a personal line and without preparation. Trump is also not releasing read-outs of these calls, so what we know of them tends to come from foreign sources."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 01, 2016, 01:31:54 AM
Per the linked article, Jill Stein filed for a hand recount in Michigan:

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/30/recount/94667998/ (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/30/recount/94667998/)

Extract: "Stein formally requested Wednesday a hand recount of the state’s presidential election, a labor-intensive undertaking that is expected to begin Friday morning and could result in marathon counting sessions until the Dec. 13 deadline.

Republican President-elect Donald Trump won by 10,704 votes over Democrat Hillary Clinton, getting 47.5 percent of the vote to the former secretary of state’s 47.27 percent. Stein received 51,463 votes or about 1.1 percent.

The Green Party nominee’s attorneys left a $973,250 check at the state Bureau of Elections to cover Stein’s legally required fees for seeking a recount of 6,300 precincts."

Edit: Also, from the Jill Stein website:

https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount (https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount)

Extract: "Wisconsin Increases Recount Filing Fee to Outrageous $3.5-million

Friends, I have an important message for you. We need your help to stand up to the powerful forces trying to block our recount campaign for citizen democracy. We received word yesterday that the final estimate for the filing fee for the recount in Wisconsin is $3.5 million – an outrageous cost increase from the initial estimate of $1.1 million that was given to us by WI state elections officials based on the last statewide recount. But thanks to over 130,000 small donors like you, we have enough money in hand to pay this fee and move forward with the recount!

But because of this exorbitant fee increase – bringing the total money required for recounts in all three states to $9.5 million – we need your help. We’re not there yet, and we need every last penny to reach the $9.5 million benchmark."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 01, 2016, 03:14:30 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/clintons-popular-vote-lead-over-trump-breaks-23-million/ar-AAkYqUN?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/clintons-popular-vote-lead-over-trump-breaks-23-million/ar-AAkYqUN?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Clinton's popular vote lead over Trump breaks 2.3 million."

As Clinton's lead in the popular vote increases, the issue of who should be President is getting harder to ignore. Although Trump won an Electoral victory, it was be no means a landslide as he claimed.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 01, 2016, 03:23:04 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-treasury-foreclosed-homes-mnuchin-232038 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-treasury-foreclosed-homes-mnuchin-232038)

"Trump Treasury pick made millions after his bank foreclosed on homeowners."

"Steven Mnuchin's OneWest filed to take a 90-year-old woman's house after a 27-cent payment error."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 01, 2016, 03:44:06 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/01/news/economy/bernie-sanders-oped-trump-carrier-washington-post/index.html?iid=H_MKT_News (http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/01/news/economy/bernie-sanders-oped-trump-carrier-washington-post/index.html?iid=H_MKT_News)

"Bernie Sanders: Carrier took Trump 'hostage and won'."

"Senator Bernie Sanders lambasted Donald Trump for giving Carrier tax incentives to keep 1,000 jobs in America."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 01, 2016, 07:23:25 PM
Here's a perspective for those that continue to believe the US election was about "economic anxiety"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2016/11/30/is-this-the-end-of-american-exceptionalism/?utm_term=.014c49fb715f (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2016/11/30/is-this-the-end-of-american-exceptionalism/?utm_term=.014c49fb715f)

And look, all these children are actively expressing economic anxiety as well:

https://www.splcenter.org/20161128/trump-effect-impact-2016-presidential-election-our-nations-schools#the (https://www.splcenter.org/20161128/trump-effect-impact-2016-presidential-election-our-nations-schools#the) ugliness is new
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 02, 2016, 12:39:06 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/donald-trump-michigan-recount-blocked-232076 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/donald-trump-michigan-recount-blocked-232076)


I wonder what Trump would have said if the shoe was on the other foot? A late night twitter rant, no doubt.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 02, 2016, 08:09:24 AM
I wonder if anyone's done a study on wildfires, floods, hurricanes, drought, possibly including pipeline ruptures and other anthropogenic disasters etc. which would compare the number of these according to the political parties in power? I have no clue what the result would be but it might be an interesting study.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 02, 2016, 02:03:36 PM
In the finance field.....I ALWAYS look for "things that don't make sense."  Whether it is at work...or looking at investments.....I always look for things that don't seem quite right.

It is part of the "roach theory".  Where there is one roach....there are MANY.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/donald-trump-michigan-recount-blocked-232076 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/donald-trump-michigan-recount-blocked-232076)

If I'm Donald Trump......and I DIDN'T think there were likely to be any significant errors....the one thing I DON'T DO is to try to stop a recount.  Why?  Because a recount...if there weren't any errors...gives me MORE STATURE.  It "proves" that I won.  So this band of people who thought that Trump actually "stole" the election....were wrong.  And after a recount they would likely be quieted some and life could go on.

But here he is.....trying to STOP the recount.  THAT.....raises a red flag to me.  It doesn't mean that something "nefarious" is going on....but it raises a red flag.

I still don't think a recount in all 3 states will come out in Clinton's favor.  Wisconsin is the closest....so it wouldn't surprise me if it "flipped".  But for all 3 to flip would be like the odds of winning the jackpot.

Trump is off to a horrible start.  A gracious winner?  NO.  Continuing to lie?  YES.

The fact that he is surrounding himself with "the swamp" doesn't bode well either.  Especially since they are "inadequate and ill equipped swamp" in many cases.

As some of you know...I'm a big "Duck fan".  And when Oregon announced that Marc Helfreich would "take over the reigns" as head coach 4 years ago.....I was disappointed.  I didn't think he had "the right stuff" to be able to recruit good players AND good coaches.  And sure enough.....year by year....the football program deteriorated as he wasn't able to recruit good people (either coaches OR players). Helfreich was fired (impeached ;)) this week...and Oregon now looks for the coach they should have had in the first place.

THAT....is the same issue that Trump is going to suffer from.  He is ill equipped to take over from the beginning....AND....he isn't able to recruit good folks for his cabinet.  He has...and will continue to hire.......mostly ill equipped folks.  I hope for our sake...he hires Bob Corker for Sec of State.  I don't agree with a lot of what Corker stands for...and he WILL be a yes man for Trump.  But at least he has some intelligence....AND....he also has limitations to his "yes man" status (he will only be pushed SO FAR).

The next year will be fascinating.  And Trump is likely headed for trouble.   
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 02, 2016, 03:12:21 PM
Unemployment rate down to 4.6% and the US added another 178,000 jobs.  That "Obamacare" has really killed the job market hasn't it:)

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/02/504115031/unemployment-rate-drops-to-4-6-percent-lowest-level-since-2007 (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/02/504115031/unemployment-rate-drops-to-4-6-percent-lowest-level-since-2007)

Remember.....we still have 2 more months of data to come before Comrade Trump takes office that could push that 4.6% rate LOWER STILL.

Trump will take credit for the rate decrease come January....although it is clearly Obama's since Trump won't take office till January 20th.

Expect Obama to tout these continued good numbers LOUD AND CLEAR over the next couple of months.  And this will paint Trump into a corner of finding it harder and harder to IMPROVE ON THOSE NUMBERS.

And if that improvement DOESN'T HAPPEN.....that is when Trump will run into more issues.

Keep in mind that MOMENTUM is on the UPSIDE now in the US job market.....and that momentum will likely carry into at least the MIDDLE of 2017.  It will also make it much harder to go on some wild stimulus program.....because it would only stoke inflation.

Personally....I hope we go down to 4.4% next month.....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 02, 2016, 03:49:16 PM
More on the jobs front from the linked article below:
====================================
According to several key measures, President Obama is handing over an unusually strong economy to a successor from the opposing party. There have been 81 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, the longest streak on record.

The tightening labor market, after a frustrating delay, has started to bump wages above the rate of inflation. Housing prices are up, and consumers are expressing the highest levels of confidence in nearly a decade. The American economy grew by a healthy 3.2 percent annual rate during the third quarter of this year.
=====================================
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/business/economy/jobs-report.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/business/economy/jobs-report.html?_r=0)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 02, 2016, 04:03:53 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/donald-trump-victory-tour-232081 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/donald-trump-victory-tour-232081)

"Trump rubs salt in the wounds of his rivals."

"The first leg of the president-elect's victory tour turns into an 'I told you so.'

If the election results can be considered a "victory" for Trump at all, it is only a marginal victory at best. Yet he's out there strutting his stuff as if he won by a landslide.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 02, 2016, 06:52:29 PM
Again....keep your eye on the ball.... ;)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigan-moves-block-presidential-recount-state-statement-150741389.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigan-moves-block-presidential-recount-state-statement-150741389.html)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFT1fJMya14 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFT1fJMya14)

Ron Wyden....Senator from Oregon, is probably THEE MOST ETHICAL person in government.  WATCH HIM CLOSELY OVER COMING DAYS/WEEKS. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 02, 2016, 07:17:52 PM
Cracks already forming between business and Trump:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/breitbart-urges-boycott-of-kelloggs-after-cereal-maker-pulls-ads-152042623.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/breitbart-urges-boycott-of-kelloggs-after-cereal-maker-pulls-ads-152042623.html)

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/langone-trump-great-honor-job-130317418.html (https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/langone-trump-great-honor-job-130317418.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 02, 2016, 08:20:50 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Trump Backers Go to Court to Block Vote Recounts in 3 States".  The article indicates that lawyers for Jill Stein are fighting back against the Trump Backers' legal moves:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/us/trump-recounts-wisconsin-michigan-pennsylvania.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/us/trump-recounts-wisconsin-michigan-pennsylvania.html?_r=0)

Extract: "A lawyer for Ms. Stein, Mark Brewer, said Mr. Trump’s campaign was making a “desperate attempt” to avoid a recount. “I would remind everybody that the original source of the allegation that this election was rigged was Mr. Trump,” Mr. Brewer told the board.
The Michigan board split, 2-2, along party lines, meaning the recount objection failed.

The recounts bids are widely viewed as having little chance of making a difference. But Ms Stein, in a statement, said the challenges to them were an effort to put “party politics above country.”

“In an election already tainted by suspicion, previously expressed by Donald Trump himself,” she said, “verifying the vote is a common-sense procedure that would put all concerns around voter disenfranchisement to rest. Trump’s desperate attempts to silence voter demands for recounts raise a simple question: why is Donald Trump afraid of these recounts?”

Ms. Stein has raised millions of dollars for an effort to force recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, states that have recently voted Democratic and where Mr. Trump won by relatively thin margins.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 03, 2016, 02:45:20 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Is Trump considering current or former CEOs of Texas-based Exxon Mobil for secretary of state?"  Talk about getting into bed with the devil.

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2016/12/01/exxon-mobil-ceo-former-ceo-may-considered-secretary-state (http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2016/12/01/exxon-mobil-ceo-former-ceo-may-considered-secretary-state)

Extract: "Might the current CEO of Irving-based Exxon Mobil become the next U.S. secretary of state? Or maybe the prior Exxon CEO, retired since 2005, will get the federal job next year?

Rumors connecting president-elect Donald Trump with both current Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson and former CEO Lee Raymond have been getting multiple media attention. But some rumors are pointing in totally different directions as recently as today."

See also the linked article entitled: "Exxon CEO Tillerson is on short list for secretary of state spot in Trump’s Cabinet".


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article118498788.html (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article118498788.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 03, 2016, 02:53:18 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Is Trump considering current or former CEOs of Texas-based Exxon Mobil for secretary of state?"  Talk about getting into bed with the devil.

I believe that is a "misdirection" by Trump.  You show people a couple of bad candidates like Romney and Guilianni that people aren't thrilled about.  So.....you show them a couple more THAT ARE WAY WORSE.  Makes Mitt and Rudy look a lot better......and a lot more palletable:)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: DrTskoul on December 03, 2016, 03:32:34 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Is Trump considering current or former CEOs of Texas-based Exxon Mobil for secretary of state?"  Talk about getting into bed with the devil.

Current CEO is way better than Romney or Guliani, as a manager. The past not so by a mile... However he was smarter than Romney, Trump and Guliani combined.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 03, 2016, 02:12:07 PM
This is priceless.  This is a quote from a Trump surrogate in an interview.  And it IS what they did the whole campaign.  The trouble was.....THE PRESS did a HORRIBLE JOB of calling out lies...as lies.  And they did a HORRIBLE JOB of reporting on what was A FACT...and what was a LIE.  And they CONTINUE to do a horrible job.

Here is her quote:

“One thing that’s been interesting this entire campaign season to watch is that people that say facts are facts. They’re not really facts,” Trump surrogate Scottie Nell Hughes said on “The Diane Rehm Show” on NPR. “It’s kind of like looking at ratings or looking at a glass of half-full water. Everybody has a way of interpreting them to be the truth or not true. There’s no such thing, unfortunately, anymore as facts.”



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-surrogate-claims-no-facts_us_58408f8ee4b0c68e047fd952? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-surrogate-claims-no-facts_us_58408f8ee4b0c68e047fd952?)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 03, 2016, 03:28:57 PM
The linked article is entitled: ”Yes, you can blame millennials for Hillary Clinton’s loss".  Apparently, Clinton lost about 5% of the millennial vote apparently to third-party candidates in the final days before the election:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/02/yes-you-can-blame-millennials-for-hillary-clintons-loss/?utm_term=.e5d6cb42103f (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/02/yes-you-can-blame-millennials-for-hillary-clintons-loss/?utm_term=.e5d6cb42103f)

Extract: "Hillary Clinton's campaign has lots of excuses for losing. There's the electoral college, James Comey, the media's alleged over-exuberance in digging into Clinton's email server, etc. But Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said Thursday that one particular group is especially to blame: millennials.

Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook also acknowledged that her operation had made a number of mistakes and miscalculations, while being buffeted by what he repeatedly described as a “headwind” of being an establishment candidate in a season where voters were anxious for change.

He noted, for example, that younger voters, perhaps assuming that Clinton was going to win, migrated to third-party candidates in the final days of the race."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 03, 2016, 03:42:02 PM
I have certainly NOT been optimistic about a Trump presidency all along.  Now...after more than 3 weeks have passed by since the election.....and after viewing what has happened since, and how Trump has handled himself...I am materially LESS CONFIDENT IN HIM.

This truly has the makings of a political disaster.  You can already see the cracks beginning to form...even on the "right" side of aisle.

Some people don't know how to be a good loser...and that is not a good quality.  What may be even worse...is someone who doesn't know how to be a good winner.  And Trump clearly falls into that camp.

He clearly doesn't know how to handle himself as a leader of a country.  And he is likely to continue to "step in it" on issue after issue in the future.  And....come 6 months from now, if the economy begins to slip....the "boo birds" will start to come out in droves.  And he will NOT handle that well.

He is just in WAY OVER HIS HEAD AND HIS ABILITIES....and he doesn't know it.


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 03, 2016, 08:45:35 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Jill Stein sues in federal court to hasten Michigan presidential recount".  It is a good thing that Stein raised millions to fight the forces of darkness, because she is going to need every penny she raised:

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/12/jill_stein_sues_in_federal_cou.html (http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/12/jill_stein_sues_in_federal_cou.html)

Extract: "Green Party candidate Jill Stein has filed suit in federal court in an effort to get the presidential recount she requested underway sooner.

In a lawsuit filed late Friday in Detroit's U.S. District Court, Stein's attorney, Mark Brewer, asked for a court order to start the presidential recount immediately instead of next week. The Board of State Canvassers and Michigan Elections Director Chris Thomas are named in the suit.

It's the latest in a series of legal challenges facing the presidential recount, which is moving forward for now after the Board of State Canvassers deadlocked Friday in a 2-2 vote on whether to accept an objection filed by President-elect Donald Trump's legal team.

Currently, a hand recount of the millions of ballots cast in Michigan is slated to begin either late Tuesday or early Wednesday, two business days after the Board of State Canvassers' vote, Thomas said Friday.

Citing the federal "safe harbor" deadline of Dec. 13 -- six days before the Electoral College meets -- Stein's filing claimed further delay in the recount is "effectively denying the right to vote.""
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 04, 2016, 02:15:54 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Jill Stein Campaign Drops Her Recount Effort In Pennsylvania".  This action should help focus Stein's efforts to the two most promising states, and will help to conserve her funds:


http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/03/504285672/jill-stein-campaign-drops-her-recount-effort-in-pennsylvania (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/03/504285672/jill-stein-campaign-drops-her-recount-effort-in-pennsylvania)

Extract: "Jill Stein has ended her statewide ballot recount effort in Pennsylvania.

In Pennsylvania, though, Stein's withdrawal brings an abrupt conclusion to a statewide effort that began there less than one week ago. "Recounts will still proceed in a handful of Pennsylvania precincts, but it is far from the statewide recount that Ms. Stein was hoping for," The Wall Street Journal reports.

At this time, there is no indication that Stein's campaign plans to drop its efforts in Wisconsin — where The Associated Press reports a recount is already underway — or in Michigan."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 04, 2016, 05:16:36 AM
I just realised how this could happen. The peoples of the southern states have been reading the false horoscopes all their lives. When you think of it, the stars of course cannot affect a 6 pounder newborn. Thus the influence of stars has to happen earlier in the insemination. Every horoscope is thus 10 months backwards from their traditional dates. No wonder there's no second coming in sight, they can't even guess the correct alignement of the stars for the rebirth of our savior king Arthur. (To offer some "rationalisation" for the voting behavior of the fascists in US and Europe.) I think I can mostly put this result un the backburner now, occasional relapses of dissing/trashing etc. the republicans (who call themselves teabaggers) are though likely, but the horoscope mixup started by medieval astrologers is good enough an explanation for this irrational behavior of electoral collegiate.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: DrTskoul on December 04, 2016, 02:05:09 PM
...
He is just in WAY OVER HIS HEAD AND HIS ABILITIES....and he doesn't know it.

Seeing the Taiwan fiasco, don't forget that since he doesn't know what he doesn't know, he is liable to be manipulated by his advisors to do things from their agenda
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 04, 2016, 02:23:56 PM
Seeing the Taiwan fiasco, don't forget that since he doesn't know what he doesn't know, he is liable to be manipulated by his advisors to do things from their  agenda


ABSOLUTELY.  And they know two things about him:

1)  He's NOT that smart
2)  He is very impatient...and doesn't want to take the time to learn.

This is a train wreck waiting to happen...

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2016, 03:05:26 PM
Green Party Changes Strategy, Will Seek Pennsylvania Recount in Federal Court
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/green-party-changes-strategy-will-seek-pennsylvania-recount-n691651 (http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/green-party-changes-strategy-will-seek-pennsylvania-recount-n691651)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: mati on December 04, 2016, 04:37:39 PM
What the Tweet?

http://news.groopspeak.com/a-woman-just-stood-up-to-trumps-latest-outburst-on-twitter-and-america-is-cheering-her-on/ (http://news.groopspeak.com/a-woman-just-stood-up-to-trumps-latest-outburst-on-twitter-and-america-is-cheering-her-on/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 04, 2016, 04:56:36 PM
Good for Danielle Muscato! I think it would have been better if she had kept the tweetstorm down to about 12, but man, she really kicked his ass!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 04, 2016, 05:05:09 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-first-amendment_us_58431e3be4b017f37fe4e8e4 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-first-amendment_us_58431e3be4b017f37fe4e8e4)

"Donald Trump Will Be President In Just Over A Month And The Constitution Is Already Under Attack."

Extract: With a little over a month until Donald Trump takes office, the president-elect and his allies have already begun to attack the guarantees of the First Amendment, signaling how imperiled the fundamental freedoms of the Constitution could be under a Trump presidency.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2016, 08:52:17 PM
Satire from Andy Borowitz.

Obama Politely Asks Trump to Wait Until Inauguration Before Destroying World
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/obama-politely-asks-trump-to-wait-until-inauguration-before-destroying-world (http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/obama-politely-asks-trump-to-wait-until-inauguration-before-destroying-world)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 05, 2016, 06:50:39 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38167022 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38167022)

"Trump rants against China in Twitter outburst."

"US President-elect Donald Trump has posted a series of tweets criticising China for its monetary policy and its operations in the South China Sea."

Back in the early to mid 70's we had "shuttle" diplomacy with Henry Kissinger as Sec. of State. Now with Trump, we may have a new phrase: Twitter diplomacy!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 06, 2016, 04:11:27 AM
It begins.  It's the best chance for a peaceful resolution to the current US electoral problem.  Tho the red hats might rise up, but that could be a lot less costly than what would happen after Jan 20

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/05/opinion/why-i-will-not-cast-my-electoral-vote-for-donald-trump.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/05/opinion/why-i-will-not-cast-my-electoral-vote-for-donald-trump.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 07, 2016, 02:56:23 PM
All aboard the "Trump Train".  When will the train "jump the tracks" and into the ravine?  It is only a matter of "when".....not a matter of "if".  Again....when you don't hire good folks....bad things happen.  Especially when the worst of those folks is at the top. ;)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/former-cia-official-trump-clown-show_us_584797c3e4b0d0df183702aa (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/former-cia-official-trump-clown-show_us_584797c3e4b0d0df183702aa)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 07, 2016, 03:41:14 PM
But who taught them to vote and could do it in two years??

http://time.com/7809/1-in-4-americans-thinks-sun-orbits-earth/ (http://time.com/7809/1-in-4-americans-thinks-sun-orbits-earth/)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 07, 2016, 05:13:58 PM
The following articles show Trump's ability to surprise.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/07/politics/trump-obama-appointments/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/07/politics/trump-obama-appointments/index.html)

"Trump seeks Obama advice on appointments."

------

http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/07/investing/trump-drug-prices-time-man-year-biotech/index.html?iid=A_MKT_News (http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/07/investing/trump-drug-prices-time-man-year-biotech/index.html?iid=A_MKT_News)

"Trump warns Wall Street: I'm going to cut drug prices."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 07, 2016, 06:47:18 PM
But who taught them to vote and could do it in two years??

We'll see if the coal miners of Ohio and Pennsylvania are patient enough.....when they continue to lose coal jobs over the next two years.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 08, 2016, 12:04:02 AM
Keep your eye on the ball.  Remember....Tricky Dick was impeached for what he did to RUN FOR OFFICE....BEFORE his second term started.  Not...for what he did during his second term.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-russia-hacking_us_584867cde4b0d0aa037ee370 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-russia-hacking_us_584867cde4b0d0aa037ee370)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 08, 2016, 01:39:22 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Here’s Why the Michigan Election Recount Is Suddenly in Doubt".  I guess we will soon find-out whether the Michigan recount continues after tomorrow:


http://fortune.com/2016/12/07/michigan-election-recount-pennsylvania-wisconsin/ (http://fortune.com/2016/12/07/michigan-election-recount-pennsylvania-wisconsin/)

Extract: "Michigan’s presidential recount suddenly appears in doubt after a state appeals court said the Green Party candidate’s poor showing disqualified her from seeking a second look at the votes."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: be cause on December 08, 2016, 02:10:41 AM
Perhaps the Arctic is coming to our rescue . If it's cold happens to be about Washington on inaugeration day you might get a president as stiff as his hair ...
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: JMP on December 08, 2016, 08:26:41 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Here’s Why the Michigan Election Recount Is Suddenly in Doubt".  I guess we will soon find-out whether the Michigan recount continues after tomorrow:


[url]http://fortune.com/2016/12/07/michigan-election-recount-pennsylvania-wisconsin/[/url] ([url]http://fortune.com/2016/12/07/michigan-election-recount-pennsylvania-wisconsin/[/url])

Extract: "Michigan’s presidential recount suddenly appears in doubt after a state appeals court said the Green Party candidate’s poor showing disqualified her from seeking a second look at the votes."


It's extremely doubtful that a recount would make any difference.   Here in US State of Georgia the machines cannot possibly give a recount output different than the first output. If there were to be corruption there is no safeguard against it... there is no back-up... nothing to capture the event of voting... separate... nothing apart from the (potential to inevitable) corruption of the device itself.   Any paper trail afaik has been completely eliminated.   

Call your electors! Reach out to them any way you can!   


While the popular vote went to Clinton, almost any choice... Kuchinich etc. would be an improvement.       

 

         
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 08, 2016, 02:25:50 PM
I'm working on a response (a LONG response) to a members prior post (in this string)......and this article in Oregon relates to part of my response.

One of the things that our society and OTHERS will have to deal with....is the HUGE (ok...UUUGGGE) disparity in pay in many companies between the "C Suite" folks (CEO, COO, CIO, etc) and "the working folks".

Trump....is certainly NOT going to address this.  But this IS an issue that has been percolating for several years in different places around the world. Switzerland voted on a referendum that would have maxed out the pay differential between the CEO and the lowest paid employee of the company back in 2013.  In Switzerland...the "max multiple" was 12.  Personally...I think that is on the "low side"....(some companies in the US the ratio now may be over 1,000 to 1 in many cases).

In Portland, Oregon (my old stomping grounds) the CITY OF PORTLAND just passed a "business tax" that will be levied on companies that hold a business license....AND....pay their CEO more than 100 times the AVERAGE WORKERS PAY.  I don't like this as well for a couple reasons:  (1)It's not SIMPLE ENOUGH (I like the idea of a multiple on the LOWEST PAID WORKER instead), (2) the multiple is too high.

But my point is this:  While Trump will NOT be a person who is going to deal with this.....this will likely come up DURING HIS TENURE (if he lasts 4 years).

The idea....as a CPA numbers guy....is to keep it as SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE (the old 80/20 rule).  Give companies a CLEAR FIELD on which to operate with CLEAR BOUNDRIES (I call them "sidelines....think of a football field where you lay out the sidelines....and let the companies play WITHIN those boundaries).  There are a lot of "complex issues" to deal with TO MAKE IT SIMPLE (and I WON'T go into that in detail....you have subsidiaries of multiple layer companies to deal with...as well as other issues)....but you have to make it as SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE.

But the idea is to lay out the playing field....and force companies to NOT let their pay ratios between upper paid...and lower paid...get too far out of whack (like they are now).


http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/12/steve_novicks_ceo_tax_wins_clo.html#incart_2box (http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/12/steve_novicks_ceo_tax_wins_clo.html#incart_2box)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/24/switzerland-votes-against-cap-executive-pay (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/24/switzerland-votes-against-cap-executive-pay)

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 08, 2016, 04:10:45 PM
By the way.....yesterday Donald Trump said he wanted to be "judged starting with the election date" not his inauguration date.

The reason for this is CLEAR:  The economy has a lot of steam RIGHT NOW THAT IS DUE TO OBAMA'S POLICIES.  Unemployment is at 4.6%.....growth is at 3.2%....jobless claims are low.

As I noted a week or two ago....I expect those numbers to continue to improve because of momentum that has been building in the economy, AND....that other world economies have been strengthening over the last couple of months.

By the time Trump takes office in late January.....the unemployment rate might be 4.5%...or lower.  And the GDP may tick up this quarter as well (Oct, Nov, Dec).

Trump want's the easiest comparable's possible.  So he would rather be judged against a 4.6% unemployment rate rather than a lower rate.

It is just another case of Trump "making up his own reality".  Or...as the rest of us call it....LYING.

This mornings jobless claims were low again....and more good news for the economy.  Keep in mind.....that the US economy has recovered EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF FISCAL STIMULUS THAT WAS WANTED BY THE DEMOCRAT's.  Now that a Republican is going to be in the oval office....all of the sudden the Republicans are big believers in fiscal stimulus (it will cause inflation if they do it...).

It's pretty hard to stop the momentum that has built up in the economy right now.  And Trump "policies" won't take effect for another 6 months at least....so I expect business conditions in the US to continue upwards.




 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 08, 2016, 05:16:00 PM
My thinking post election was that the stock market would drop with Trump's victory. In fact, the stock market has been rallying. Trump will obviously take credit for that as well, deserved or not.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 08, 2016, 05:58:05 PM
My thinking post election was that the stock market would drop with Trump's victory. In fact, the stock market has been rallying. Trump will obviously take credit for that as well, deserved or not.

The "market" has NOTHING to do with who wins or loses in the short term or intermediate term.  ONLY THE LONG TERM.

In the short and intermediate term....all about how much money is "in the pool"....and how much money is "out of the pool".  Best time to invest is when most of the money is "out of the pool".  In addition....we are in an environment where interest rates are expected to go UP....which is bad for the bond market.....and money is coming OUT of the bond market, and heading INTO the stock market.  And this is likely a SUPER LONG TERM MOVE out of bonds.

Also....with the race so close BEFORE THE ELECTION....."big money" was either "heavily hedged" (like Mark Cuban)...or out of the market (if a lot of money is OUT OF THE MARKET....there next step is to go INTO THE MARKET...which is bullish).

Also....keep in mind that Trump wants to do a lot of "infrastructure" (the type the Republicans hadn't wanted to do over the last 8 years.....but are all of the sudden happy to do it ;)).

THINK SUPPLY AND DEMAND.  The best time to buy....is when nobody wants it.  The worst time to buy...is when everyone wants it (think....housing booms and busts.....oil booms and busts..etc).  There WILL BE A DOWNTURN AHEAD.....but it will depend on "liquidity" (money moving OUT of the market) and perceived weakness ahead (which isn't there yet...due to low unemployment and good GDP).

NOTE:  The bottom of the HOUSING MARKET wasn't until about late winter of 2011....long AFTER the stock market bottom of March 2009.  Markets are driven by buyers vs sellers.

I expect we will see a "run" at 20,000 before any type of significant pullback.  And we are "likely" to see a recession of some sort (likely of the "light" variety) that would start sometime over the next year or two.

Keep in mind....I BELIEVE...the next "productivity gains" have already started:  Robotics AND energy.  Those two things will produce HUGE.....UUUGGGGGEEEE ;)....gains in the coming decade or two.









 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 08, 2016, 07:12:20 PM
Here's a guy who would fit PERFECTLY into a Trump cabinet....especially at Secretary of State:  Watch the video.....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/dana-rohrabacher-russia_us_5848f9ffe4b0d0aa037f46d2 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/dana-rohrabacher-russia_us_5848f9ffe4b0d0aa037f46d2)

OMG
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 08, 2016, 07:18:26 PM
You can rest assured that Russia, China, and OPEC will tweak structural levers that create economic disruption and weakness for the US.  And Iran and other terrorist states and non-state actors will provoke the US via an incident, and rest assured that Trump and his cabinet of generals will overreach.  The US will be as vulnerable as anytime in the past few hundred years, yet still in possession of the world's strongest military and a huge nuclear arsenal.  Terrible combo for all of us.

But hopefully those folks in the rust belt with economic anxiety will feel better.  Thankfully we are all safe now from Hillary Clinton's email server.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 08, 2016, 07:57:48 PM
For those of you looking for Santa to bring you something nice.....even though you have likely been naughty.....I would recommend the following book by Michael Lewis:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/michael-lewiss-brilliant-new-book-about-cognitive-bias-1480982097 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/michael-lewiss-brilliant-new-book-about-cognitive-bias-1480982097)

I put this in this string on purpose.  Even though I haven't read the book YET....

"One bias they found is that we underestimate uncertainty. In hindsight bias, for example, test subjects misremembered their own predictions as being correct. As Tversky explained, “we find ourselves unable to predict what will happen; yet, after the fact we explain what did happen with a great deal of confidence. . . . It leads us to believe that there is a less uncertain world than there actually is.” Mr. Lewis is outraged by McKinsey & Co. coaching their consultants to radiate certainty while billing clients huge fees to forecast such unknowable variables as the future price of oil. The work of Tversky and Mr. Kahneman convinced Mr. Lewis that, as he puts it when summarizing the view of a jaded former consultant, such “confidence was a sign of fraudulence.”

There are 3 areas of the universe that have been "under discovered":  Outerspace, the deep oceans, and the human mind.

Behavioral Psychology is UNDER UTILZED in both government AND in business.  I see it all the time....both in the setting or mis-setting of proper "incentives and disincentives".

This would NOT likely be a book that the Donald would read.....but given Michael Lewis's past works...I am anxious to buy it and immerse myself.

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 08, 2016, 10:56:26 PM
Eye on the ball.....

One possible theory, Schoenberg said, is that “the new allegations came from people associated with the Trump campaign.”
Report Advertisement

He continued on his blog:

What if the allegations were intentionally false? During the nine days when the investigation was underway, Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani made public statements suggesting he was in communication with the FBI about the ongoing investigation. It does not seem too far-fetched to believe that politically-motivated individuals might have tried to get the FBI to re-open the investigation of Clinton by making false allegations. Finding Huma Abedin’s e-mails on Weiner’s laptop might have been just an opportunity to carry out their wishes.


http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/holocaust-attorney-sues-fbi-over-election-interference-that-could-lead-to-impeachment-of-trump/ (http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/holocaust-attorney-sues-fbi-over-election-interference-that-could-lead-to-impeachment-of-trump/)

NOTE:  One Rudy Guiliani and Rep Chavis from Utah......
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 09, 2016, 07:50:57 AM
Buddy: It is interesting, if not suspect that James Comey's actions ten or so days before the election have received little attention post-election. His action's may have been the deciding factor in the election. Yet, very little has been said about it. Thanks for bringing up this point.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 09, 2016, 08:08:23 AM
Biden's perspective on the recent presidential campaign; food for thought:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/08/politics/biden-embarrassed-divisive-election/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/08/politics/biden-embarrassed-divisive-election/index.html)

"Biden: I'm 'embarrassed' by the campaign."

Extract: This year's presidential contest was a substance-free spectacle, Vice President Joe Biden lamented on Thursday.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 09, 2016, 08:24:35 AM
Breitbart News rips Trump's labor pick:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/breitbart-trump-labor-puzder-232402 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/breitbart-trump-labor-puzder-232402)

Extract: Donald Trump on Thursday faced criticism over his labor secretary pick from an unlikely source: Breitbart News, a right-wing media organization that championed Trump's presidential candidacy.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 09, 2016, 01:39:15 PM
Trump is headed for a disaster of some sort.  Nobody knows what is going to happen....and when...but when someone makes BAD DECISIONS....bad things happen.  And when someone hires bad people....it makes bad decisions just that much more likely.

But there will have to be a legal reason to oust Trump.  And there are three TWO possibilities: (1) the Rudy Guiliani/FBI connection, and (2) the Russian hacking and "help" given to them by Trump and/or his kids.  I would suspect that one of those will be the lynchpin for Trump (3) improper business dealings between Trump's companies and foreign countries/individuals.

I am dying to see who the Secretary of State appointment will be.  Rudy Guiliani doesn't have the ability or the composure to be Secretary of State.  BUT.....he is likely the reason that Donald Trump is going to be president (via the FBI letter from Comey).  And IF Donald Trump knows what Rudy did....and anyone else ALSO knew what Rudy did (ie Deepthroat II?).....then Trump may feel he HAS to appoint Rudy Guiliani.

The above is ALL "conjecture".  But it is conjecture by connecting some VERY REAL DOTS of what we know happened.  We KNOW the dots:  (a) Guiliani talked with some FBI folks (he's admitted to that...although he has not YET admitted to talking with CURRENT FBI folks.  But there isn't much difference to talking THROUGH an ex FBI person to convey a message to a CURRENT FBI person....and talking directly to the current FBI person (b) We KNOW that Rep Chavis from Utah......has had a "jihad" on the issue with Clinton.  Did he work WITH Rudy in all of this?  Did he convey any "message" either directly or indirectly? (c) we know that Trump will keep most of his business dealings....and we know he is a crook.

And what if Guliani ISN'T given the post of Secretary of State?  If he doesn't have any "skin in the game" of President Trumps cabinet......what will be made of Rudy Guiliani then?  And IF (big IF) shit DOES hit the fan....would Rudy save his ass by giving investigators a BIGGER ASS?

All conjecture right now.....but again....WE DO KNOW SOME OF THE DOTS.  It's now connecting them that may finish the picture...

And on the Russian front......we know:  (1) Donald Trump ACTUALLY ASKED THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT FOR DOCUMENTS/EMAILS....everyone in the world KNOWS THAT (2) Where were Donald's kids...did they have any communications, either directly or indirectly with people in the Russian government to help or encourage Russia to play a part in the election process?

So those are the two issues that I would bet on....if I were a betting man.  But it may be Donald's incompetence in office over the coming 6 - 18 months that triggers a closer scrutiny of those two problem areas for Trump.   And that is how Trump's future impeachment unwinds.

A third possibility would be business dealings between Trump or his family....with foreign powers.  That is a THIRD possibility of how Trump could get impeached.

There is a long history of MAN(or women) thinking he can get away with something.  You would think with ALL THE HISTORY of people getting caught....that people wouldn't do those kind of things.  But they do.  Individuals NEVER seem to learn from history.  Football coaches continue to have recruiting violations in order to secure recruits.  High school teachers continue to have sexual affairs with students half their age.  And politicians...once in power....continue to "overreach" in some manner.

Time will tell.....

 




Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 09, 2016, 02:02:59 PM
The "other" issue related to global warming AND Trump....is atmospheric temps and the ice sheets over coming months.  I suspect that this will become a BIGGER AND BIGGER DEAL as the MONTHS (not years) go by.

1)  What if global surface temps continue to slowly rise after a recent "plateau" of 7 months?  What if we get a spate of record high spring temperatures like we did in 2012?
2)  What if the sea ice area (and volume) CONTINUE to drop in the Arctic and Antarctic?  Will be at a record low in the Antarctic come February?  Will the Arctic continue to add ice begrudgingly and be at or near record low coverage come February?  And what happens if the Artic ice sheet sets another new record low this September?

The fossil fuel companies are now making their last stand.....and Dimwit Donnie is certainly trying to help them.  What if he appoints Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State.....AND....the above two items continue to happen and global warming continues unabated?

I STRONLY BELIEVE (based on FACTS....TRENDS....NUMBERS..SCIENCE) that the "fundamental physics" remain in place....and are in fact growing stronger....for the above 2 items to continue.  And that will eventually "entrap" a lot of Republicans....and Dimwit Donnie as well trying to support something like the idea that global warming isn't a big deal....as temps continue to go up...and ice continues to melt....and voters in the US and elsewhere continue to see what is happening.

 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 09, 2016, 04:57:18 PM
Physical processes continue irrespective of "belief". 

With Trump's admin potentially assuming power open January, it's simply not going to matter (to them) if measurements and observations show increasing global temps or decreasing global sea ice.  It will all be deemed a continued hoax by liberal scientists or a fake set of measurements.  Just watch.  So many climate deniers are proposed for key positions, that the message will be consistent and relentless, all for the sake of the fossil fuel interests.  It's all about money.  Flooding and sea level rise will continue to worsen in Miami and elsewhere, but a Trump admin will never embrace the science and fact of climate change.  At least we have been saved from Hillary Clinton's email server!

What will be interesting is that the majority of US citizens (per opinion polls) accept the facts of climate change.  And the renewable energy industry has developed a critical mass.  And a large part of corporate America is committed to green strategies and energy efficiency.  And much of the world is aligned with climate change fact.  All this is to say that there is going to be a huge oppositional force in place against the official climate change denial policy of the US federal government.

All of this will simply be noise, as the loss of the cryosphere and degradation of the biosphere continue unabated, with accelerant in the form of anti-science US government "leadership".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 09, 2016, 05:39:31 PM
What will be interesting is that the majority of US citizens (per opinion polls) accept the facts of climate change.  And the renewable energy industry has developed a critical mass.  And a large part of corporate America is committed to green strategies and energy efficiency.  And much of the world is aligned with climate change fact.  All this is to say that there is going to be a huge oppositional force in place against the official climate change denial policy of the US federal government.


Governments/politicians are ALWAYS the LAST TO MOVE.  Tobacco.....sugar.....asbestos....fossil fuels....etc, etc, etc.  John Boehner....the prior leader of House Of Representatives (from Ohio) sits on the board of one of the large tobacco companies.  They "paid" him while he was in office by backing him during his re-election campaigns.....now they are LITERALLY PAYING HIM for all his PRIOR YEARS OF LYING FOR THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY as a member of the board of directors.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/15/investing/john-boehner-smoking-joins-tobacco-company/ (http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/15/investing/john-boehner-smoking-joins-tobacco-company/)

I think the momentum in the ACTUAL PHSYCIS.....+.....the momentum in the CITIZENS PSYCHIE........will be the turning point.  And it has been building over the last 5 years....and continues to build towards a PEAK (BOTH the science AND the psychology).  We're getting closer and closer to LARGER TIPPING POINTS as witnessed by BOTH the global temperatures AND the global sea ice levels.

The truth NEVER goes away......I think we're getting a LOT CLOSER than people realize.




Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 09, 2016, 06:18:37 PM
Obama To Receive A Report On Russia’s 2016 Election Meddling Before Leaving Office:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/obama-report-election-meddling-russia_us_584ad081e4b0e05aded380ff (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/obama-report-election-meddling-russia_us_584ad081e4b0e05aded380ff)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 09, 2016, 06:50:59 PM
Obama To Receive A Report On Russia’s 2016 Election Meddling Before Leaving Office:

[url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/obama-report-election-meddling-russia_us_584ad081e4b0e05aded380ff[/url] ([url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/obama-report-election-meddling-russia_us_584ad081e4b0e05aded380ff[/url])


Trump has already gone on record that he doesn't believe the findings of 16 US intelligence agencies, that Russia had a primary role in cyber disruption of the US election.  He and his followers will not believe anything else that comes out of additional investigations, especially since they are commissioned by Obama, yet they will readily believe that Hillary Clinton is running a child sex traffic ring out of a pizza parlor in Washington DC.  And Trump takes advice from people that think the Sandy Hook shooting was made up.

The US constitution has provided a mechanism for preventing Trump to assume the presidency, and the electoral college simply needs to follow the guidance of the founders.  So much damage, pain, and death can be prevented if the electors simply make the correct choice.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: logicmanPatrick on December 09, 2016, 07:25:44 PM
The President-elect should be taken firmly by the hand and led to Valley Forge.

Anthropogenic, or human caused, climate change challenges national parks in ways we have never seen before. Glaciers are retreating at alarming rates. Increasingly destructive storms threaten cultural resources and park facilities. Habitats are being disrupted and species are being displaced. Responding to climate change is the greatest challenge facing the National Park Service today.
https://www.nps.gov/vafo/getinvolved/climate-change.htm (https://www.nps.gov/vafo/getinvolved/climate-change.htm)

If the following is a short list, I shudder to think what a long list may look like.

A short list of major effects of climate change at Valley Forge NHP could include: increasing flood damage because of more frequent and stronger storm events; difficulty in achieving reforestation because of the soil erosion from stronger storms and soil acidification from air pollution deposition; increased types and densities of exotic invasive plant species which adapt more easily than native species to warming temperatures and acidified soils; adverse impacts to plant species from increased numbers of pathogens and exotic insects; loss of park plant species, such as the sugar maple, that cannot adapt to warmer temperatures; loss of animal species that depend on the plant species that will disappear; deterioration of historic structures from the effects of wind-driven rain and higher humidity; deterioration of monuments from acid rain; and adverse impacts to museum objects from higher humidity levels and more favorable conditions for insect pests.
https://www.nps.gov/stateoftheparks/vafo/naturalresources/climate.cfm (https://www.nps.gov/stateoftheparks/vafo/naturalresources/climate.cfm)

Patrick, UK citizen, concerned about Trump's negative impact on climate science and mitigation efforts.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 10, 2016, 04:35:18 PM
The US constitution has provided a mechanism for preventing Trump to assume the presidency, and the electoral college simply needs to follow the guidance of the founders.  So much damage, pain, and death can be prevented if the electors simply make the correct choice.


The linked article is entitled: "CIA Reportedly Concludes Russian Interference Aimed To Elect Trump".  If the press writes enough about this before Dec 19th; maybe the electors will get the message that the election was hacked.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/10/505072304/cia-concludes-russian-interference-aimed-to-elect-trump (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/10/505072304/cia-concludes-russian-interference-aimed-to-elect-trump)

Extract: "U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russia interfered with the 2016 election, specifically to help Donald Trump win the presidency, The Washington Post first reported on Friday.

In addition to hacking into Democratic organizations, Russians hacked the Republican National Committee's computer systems, according to the Post — but they did not release any information that might have been retrieved from Republican networks.

Reporter Adam Entous says he interpreted the transition team's reaction as disbelief in the CIA's latest assessment due to an imperfect track record. "It's certainly true that the CIA has been wrong before — you know, intelligence failures are not that uncommon in the history of the CIA," Entous says.

But whether or not Trump's top officials acknowledge the report as a possible threat, Entous points out Trump will soon be in command of the intelligence agencies."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 10, 2016, 07:56:51 PM
The linked article is entitled: “Trump & Boeing: It's not about Air Force One, it's about China”.  Trump (& his cohorts) clearly has a hidden agenda, and is playing the American public like a fiddle:


http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/09/news/companies/trump-boeing-china/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/09/news/companies/trump-boeing-china/index.html)


Extract: “Many former and current Boeing executives say they're far more worried about Trump's antagonism toward China, the largest and most important growth market for the crown jewel of American manufacturing.


"The vulnerability to China is pretty clear," said one former senior Boeing executive.
In contrast to the long term stakes over Boeing's future in China, the flap over the cost of Air Force One lasted 24 hours.

Boeing would be a prime target in any retribution by China if Trump follows through on his campaign threat to impose a hefty tariff on Chinese imports.

A shift of orders to Airbus would likely cause a rippling drop in output for Boeing, a loss of jobs, and, crucially, a loss of market share that would give Airbus the ability to lower prices and win other deals.

One-quarter of the nearly 500 Boeing 737 jets delivered in 2015 went to Chinese airlines, serving a fast-growing middle class that's as large as the entire U.S. population. The market is worth a trillion dollars over the next 20 years.”
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 10, 2016, 08:35:53 PM
Connect the dots....

Oil....Russia/Putin....Tillison....

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 11, 2016, 03:08:27 AM
And the winner is.....

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/m/15178281-44af-391b-9a0d-5ef6517ba77e/ss_exxon-ceo-rex-tillerson%2C.html (https://www.yahoo.com/tech/m/15178281-44af-391b-9a0d-5ef6517ba77e/ss_exxon-ceo-rex-tillerson%2C.html)

In fairness to Rex.....it came down to either him or Satan....and Rex ended up winning by a horn.

I think came down to who could lie better...and Rex has been lying about global warming for the last 15 or more years...and he's almost as good a liar as the Liar King himself....Donnie Trump.

Strap in folks......
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: logicmanPatrick on December 11, 2016, 05:57:59 AM
And the winner is ... a nimby hypocrite.
as the Wall Street Journal just uncovered, one of those angry homeowners trying to stop the tower and its fracking-related business is none other than Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson. The lawsuit already has a winner, and that winner is irony.
[url]http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/exxon-ceo-rex-tillerson-is-suing-to-stop-a-fracking-development-outside-dallas-7104980[/url] ([url]http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/exxon-ceo-rex-tillerson-is-suing-to-stop-a-fracking-development-outside-dallas-7104980[/url])


Trump + Putin = oilgarchy (sic)   USA and Russia forge alliances to extract the very last sniff of fossil fuels for the benefit of the 0.01%.  As USA moves strongly to fascism, Canada sees huge spike in immigration.  Texans emigrate to Mexico in droves.

Oil money is so thoroughly ingrained in the Texas culture and economy that there is little interest in or sympathy for those who have become collateral damage in the drive for riches.
[url]http://stories.weather.com/fracking[/url] ([url]http://stories.weather.com/fracking[/url])
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 11, 2016, 06:10:52 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38254946 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38254946)

"Did Clinton win more votes than any white man in history?"

-----

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/11/politics/russia-us-elections-2016/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/11/politics/russia-us-elections-2016/index.html)

"Bipartisan group of senators calls for probe of Russian role in 2016 US elections."

-----

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/norm-eisen-richard-painter-ethics-214512 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/norm-eisen-richard-painter-ethics-214512)

"‘It’s Like a Powder Keg That’s Going to Explode’
Two longtime ethics experts argue Trump’s business conflicts are so big it should affect how the Electoral College votes.

----------

Hillary Clinton's vote lead has increased to 2.5 million. There is now bi-partisan support for the election probe and Trump's business conflicts wont go away. If he's unwilling to let his business dealings go, he should not take office.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 11, 2016, 11:04:16 PM
The linked article is entitled: “Quote of the Day: Trump Is Blowing Off Intel Briefings Because "I'm, Like, a Smart Person"”.  The GOP will defend such nonsense just to maintain power:

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/12/quote-day-trump-blowing-intel-briefings-because-im-smart-person (http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/12/quote-day-trump-blowing-intel-briefings-because-im-smart-person)


Extract: “Donald Trump doesn't believe all this nonsense about Russia interfering with the election to help him out. I guess we all expected that. But then there's this:

He also indicated that as president, he would not take the daily intelligence briefing that President Obama and his predecessors have received. Mr. Trump, who has received the briefing sparingly as president-elect, said that it was often repetitive and that he would take it “when I need it.” He said his vice president, Mike Pence, would receive the daily briefing.

“You know, I’m, like, a smart person,” he said. “I don’t have to be told the same thing in the same words every single day for the next eight years.””
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 12, 2016, 01:59:24 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/former-ambassador-to-russia-putin-wanted-revenge-against-clinton/ar-AAlqzaw?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/former-ambassador-to-russia-putin-wanted-revenge-against-clinton/ar-AAlqzaw?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russian-hacking-trump_us_584d7403e4b04c8e2bb04591 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russian-hacking-trump_us_584d7403e4b04c8e2bb04591)

"Bipartisan Anger Grows Over Russian Interference Into U.S. Election."

"Republican and Democratic senators say it must not become a “partisan issue.”

-----

Russia's involvement with the U.S. election is discussed in the above articles. Launching a probe in Congress about Russia's involvement is growing more likely as bi-partisan support increases.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 12, 2016, 02:14:01 PM
"Bipartisan Anger Grows Over Russian Interference Into U.S. Election."

And that is KEY.....that some Republicans get "on board".  This could have SIGNIFCANT LEGS over the coming months.  We'll see...


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 12, 2016, 07:11:59 PM
"Bipartisan Anger Grows Over Russian Interference Into U.S. Election."


And that is KEY.....that some Republicans get "on board".  This could have SIGNIFCANT LEGS over the coming months.  We'll see...


Momentum is building with the Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell now on board for the election interference probe, and some electors are demanding information from intelligence previous to December 19.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/12/politics/russia-hacking-election-senators-donald-trump-angus-king/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/12/politics/russia-hacking-election-senators-donald-trump-angus-king/index.html)

"McConnell, senators unite behind investigation into Russian hacking."

-----

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/electors-press-for-intelligence-briefing-on-russian-interference-before-electoral-college-vote/ar-AAlsSvP?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/electors-press-for-intelligence-briefing-on-russian-interference-before-electoral-college-vote/ar-AAlsSvP?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

"Electors press for intelligence briefing on Russian interference before Electoral College vote."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 12, 2016, 09:43:53 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38294765 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38294765)

"Republicans Ryan and McConnell back Russia vote hack probe."

-----

Now, both McConnell and Ryan are on board with the probe. I'd also like to mention the possible impact James Comey had on the election results. For what it's worth, Sen. Harry Reid blamed Comey for the Democrats losing on November 8, both the presidency and the Senate majority;

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/12/politics/harry-reid-james-comey-election/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/12/politics/harry-reid-james-comey-election/index.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 13, 2016, 06:03:41 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-conflict-of-interest_us_584f3777e4b0e05aded57793 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-conflict-of-interest_us_584f3777e4b0e05aded57793)

"Donald Trump Delays Plans To Resolve His Conflicts Of Interest."

"A Trump adviser attributed the holdup to “how convoluted and complex many of these business holdings are.”

-----

Frequent contributor "Buddy" has mentioned more than once Trump's apparent reluctance to hold a press conference, amongst other things. According to this article, he is postponing his press conference further. If Trump's business interests are too complicated to detach from during his Presidency, perhaps he should do the honorable thing and not take office at all. Furthermore, I'm wondering if the IRS audit on his tax returns has been completed, which would allow him to finally release them. I wouldn't hold my breath!

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 13, 2016, 06:14:30 AM
Mitch McConnell is a scurrilous traitor to the Republic.  His agreeing to the Russia probe is just window dressing, and he really has no choice.  Will there be a special committee, will they pursue with urgency and intensity like say, Benghazi and emails?  Ah no.  Don't take anything Mitch McConnell does as meaningful.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 13, 2016, 06:24:01 AM
Mitch McConnell is a scurrilous traitor to the Republic.  His agreeing to the Russia probe is just window dressing, and he really has no choice.  Will there be a special committee, will they pursue with urgency and intensity like say, Benghazi and emails?  Ah no.  Don't take anything Mitch McConnell does as meaningful.

I substantially agree with your post Pileus. If you haven't seen my recent post on Empire: America, I posted an article about McConnell's duplicity with regard to the probe involving Russian involvement with the election. I wouldn't go as far as calling him a traitor though, but personally I cant stand the guy.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 13, 2016, 11:22:21 AM
After the coming demonstration on Jan 20....looks like the next demonstration likely to be this summer or fall with climate change/global warming. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Archimid on December 13, 2016, 12:11:46 PM
I substantially agree with your post Pileus. If you haven't seen my recent post on Empire: America, I posted an article about McConnell's duplicity with regard to the probe involving Russian involvement with the election. I wouldn't go as far as calling him a traitor though, but personally I cant stand the guy.

They are cowardly traitors to their country and of humanity.  Corporations are people, but they are a special kind of people with much more influence over elected officials than meat and bone people. That wouldn't be so bad if corporations were US citizens with US interest. These are corporations who's interest lie along other nations, in this case in particular Russia. BY delivering policy developed to give aid and comfort to the US, like this fossil fuel binge, these people, Trump, Tillerson, and many GOP and Dems, are traitors.

How will this treason play out? many ways

1. IT will deepen the US addiction to foreign oil, further widening the fossil fuel vulnerability. If at anytime Putin decides to cripple the US, all he has to do is close the spigots. At that point the US economy will crash and burn.

2. By keeping the US and the world addicted to oil, Putin guarantees an ice free arctic. Russia gains thousands of miles of coast, which they will completely control.

3. Russia is one of the coldest countries on Earth. The probably have millions of miles of cold impenetrable forests. According to naive climate theory, since the climate will be the same but warmer, all he has to do is wait for the  forest to burn under the lack of snow and then take advantage of the new warmer great plains. At the very same time that Russia is reaping the benefits of global warming, The US looses its climate advantage.

Or so goes the plan. Of course they are being foolish. The climate will not be the same but warmer. Millions perhaps billions will die adapting to the new climate, including many russians. But that doesn't matter to them. what matters is to make Russia great again.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 13, 2016, 02:36:53 PM
what matters is to make Russia great again.

That is Donald's new slogan:

  "Make Russia Great Again"......
  Donald Trump....The Liar King


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 13, 2016, 04:38:58 PM
I substantially agree with your post Pileus. If you haven't seen my recent post on Empire: America, I posted an article about McConnell's duplicity with regard to the probe involving Russian involvement with the election. I wouldn't go as far as calling him a traitor though, but personally I cant stand the guy.

McConnell is the point person for the overall legislative resistance to Obama since Jan 2009.  To declare the party you lead is not going to participate in governance, because you lost the Presidential election to a Democrat, is an abdication of Constitutional duties as a Senator.  He led the process to deny confirmation processes to dozens of federal judge candidates, again because the Democrat won the Presidency in 2008 and 2012.  And he led the denial of Senate hearings for Obama's Supreme Court nominee, using an anti-Constitutional position that a president entering the fourth your of a term should not nominate a candidate.  These are not "checks and balances" as the framers intended.

McConnell is an insult to the Constitution, and a traitor. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 13, 2016, 05:05:31 PM
Archimid and Pileus:

Your points regarding McConnell are well taken and he does have a lot to answer for. As bad as he is though, there are a lot worse Republicans in Congress, such as the "Freedom Caucus" in the House of Representatives.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 13, 2016, 05:09:06 PM
there are a lot worse Republicans in Congress

Not many.  McConnell is pretty close to the bottom...... 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 13, 2016, 09:58:00 PM
Mitt...as I expected....got "cut off at the knees."   Pretty amazing.  Mitt comes out several months ago and tells the truth, and calls Trump a fraud...a phony....someone without character.  And then Mitt does the unspeakable after the election.....he kisses Trump's ass.  Boy....was Mitt blind or what?

And now....Mitt is neutered.  "They" (both little round things) have been "cut off".  He is now in no man's land.  He's both kissed Trump's ass....and called him out on the carpet.  Now....NOBODY believes him....and he will have absolutely no say in government at all....the rest of his life.

What a sole-less human being.....

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mitt-romney-humiliated_us_585041d5e4b04c8e2bb23a4d (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mitt-romney-humiliated_us_585041d5e4b04c8e2bb23a4d)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 14, 2016, 05:22:13 PM
Referencing my reply #792, the linked article seems to confirm just how bad McConnell and Ryan are:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/gop-leaders-russia-hacking_us_58513cb2e4b0e411bfd47270?fsp833di (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/gop-leaders-russia-hacking_us_58513cb2e4b0e411bfd47270?fsp833di)

"GOP leaders ignored repeated requests to go further in condemning Russia's hacking."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: TerryM on December 14, 2016, 05:48:45 PM
Amazing how the Russians hacked the DNC to swing the election to Trump back in March, when Trump didn't become an official nominee until the middle of July!


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-typo_us_58505fe4e4b0e411bfd415e2 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-typo_us_58505fe4e4b0e411bfd415e2)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign,_2016 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign,_2016)


If Putin hadn't developed his forward-looking binoculars we'd have been saved from Trump. :)


Terry
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 14, 2016, 07:11:51 PM
I don't think they have any idea just how brutal it is going to be over the next year or two.  He isn't even in office yet....

Some of the "reviews" in Amazon are well thought out...

https://www.yahoo.com/style/ivanka-trumps-boots-are-getting-some-interesting-reviews-on-amazon-203336449.html (https://www.yahoo.com/style/ivanka-trumps-boots-are-getting-some-interesting-reviews-on-amazon-203336449.html)

Just to note.....we STILL haven't had a press conference with questions.  Is Donald going to avoid them when he is sworn in?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 15, 2016, 05:31:48 AM
Backlash against Putin and Trump is increasing.   I'm a big believer in the "roach theory"....and more roaches seem to be crawling out of the woodwork on the Russian hacking issue.  Never underestimate how stupid and greedy someone can get when it comes to attaining power.  I would hate to think that a trail leads from one of the Trump's back to Russia.  If it looks like a rat...talks like a rat...and walks like a rat....it's usually a rat.  And right now....the Trump's are looking very "rat like".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 15, 2016, 06:38:33 AM
Here are three addt'l articles that have at least some bearing on the present situation;

1. http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/14/politics/donald-trump-deposition-washington-hotel/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/14/politics/donald-trump-deposition-washington-hotel/index.html)

"Judge orders Trump sit for 7-hour deposition in early January."
-----
Although unrelated to the election, I find some sadistic pleasure at seeing someone ordering Trump to do something he is unlikely to want to do.
-----

2.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/celebrities-trump-electoral-college_us_5851cb3be4b016e9c1187b63 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/celebrities-trump-electoral-college_us_5851cb3be4b016e9c1187b63)

"Celebrities Urge GOP Electors To Deny Trump Electoral College Win.
It’s still a long shot."
-----

At this point we'll take all the help we can get.
-----

3.http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-russia-hacking-white-house-232642 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-russia-hacking-white-house-232642)

"Earnest: Trump may have known Russia behind hacking before Election Day."
-----

Trump is looking more like a "Manchurian candidate" than ever.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 15, 2016, 12:45:21 PM
The "undressing" of Donald Trump....while it has already started....begins in earnest come late January after he is placed in office.

His "team" will be looked at as one of the worst teams ever put together.  Yesterday's announcement of Rick Perry as the nominee for Energy Secretary.....responsible for the department that Rick Perry wanted to ELIMINATE....is just the icing on the cake.  It's a close call between who would be worse:  Rick Perry or Sarah Palin.  They both have the IQ of a salamander.

The fact that Trump had his three kids sit in on the meeting yesterday with the leaders of tech companies from the US....is just further notice of how unqualified and unfit Trump is for the job.  If he is going to rely on advice from 3 people who have NEVER been out in the world ON THEIR OWN.....he is heading into very dangerous waters.  I have NEVER seen someone so unfit for that job in my lifetime.  Nothing even close.  Even George Bush Jr.....as horrible as he turned out to be....was more prepared.

Trump....as he has already done....will avoid press conferences like the plague.  Other than FOX, who will lob softballs to him, will ask him questions that will pin him down....and make him look like the bafoon that he is.  The chant for his tax returns will increase....and then all the other promises that he made during the election as well.

When he starts to move against those who are fighting global warming.....when he moves to support the many fossil fuel folks on his team.....he has NO IDEA what can of worms he will unleash on him.  We are likely headed towards "Vietnam era" type demonstrations regarding global warming.  And physics.....facts....and science.....are INCREASINGLY on our side.  Trump may put off showing his tax returns.....but he can't change the laws of physics.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 15, 2016, 05:20:12 PM
Talk about a LOW BLOW.....

http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2016/12/trump_offers_interior_secretar.html#incart_most-read_ducks_article (http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2016/12/trump_offers_interior_secretar.html#incart_most-read_ducks_article)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 16, 2016, 03:42:10 PM
Actors to keep an eye on over the coming weeks and months as the Russia hacking issue AND the FBI issue as they move forward:

1)  Rudy Giuliani
2)  US Rep from Utah...Chaffetz
3)  Trump's kids and close advisors (including PRIOR advisors like Paul Manefort.

Look for news in coming weeks and months that tie those above..... to the Russians AND...the FBI.  Keep in mind those are TWO different issues....but they both had the same "intent".

When it looks like a rat...talks like a rat...walks like a rat....it's a rat.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 16, 2016, 09:00:08 PM
Here's an article about Dimwit Donald going after Barack Obama's press secretary....and by inference, the president himself.

It almost makes Donald look like he is GUILTY ;)

Also....maybe Donald doesn't realize it.....but if he continues to harp on the current President...then he may be looking at 4 YEARS OF BEING HARPED AT BY OBAMA.

This is going to be an interesting year or two......before impeachment hearings start on Donnie boy.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/donald-trump-brings-thank-tour-pennsylvania-223105228--abc-news-topstories.html (https://www.yahoo.com/gma/donald-trump-brings-thank-tour-pennsylvania-223105228--abc-news-topstories.html)





Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 17, 2016, 04:23:51 PM
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/progressive-trump-vote-214534 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/progressive-trump-vote-214534)

‘It Was My Primal Scream’

"A lifelong progressive was so disgusted with her party, she voted for Trump. Will Democrats care enough to win her back?"

I wonder how many democrats did the same thing? Having faced my own moral dilemma about voting for Hillary or not, I can understand this women's frustration. I expect she's already regretting her decision.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 17, 2016, 04:31:11 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-4-syndromes-of-passivity-in-the-face-of-pending-tyranny_us_58543f19e4b0390447086a06 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-4-syndromes-of-passivity-in-the-face-of-pending-tyranny_us_58543f19e4b0390447086a06)

"The 4 Syndromes Of Passivity In The Face Of Pending Tyranny."

"And how to pull yourself out."

-----

Great article by Robert Reich.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 17, 2016, 04:47:24 PM
Great article by Robert Reich.

Thanks for the link:

Extract: "You feel utterly powerless and immobilized.

Millions of others feel equally powerless. But taking action – demonstrating, resisting, objecting, demanding, speaking truth, joining with others, making a ruckus, and never ceasing to fight Trump’s pending tyranny – will empower you. And with that power you will not only to minimize the damage that is about to occur, but also get this nation and the world back on the course it must be on."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 17, 2016, 07:40:44 PM
The Trumpster is on his "thank you" tour. Last night he admitted his supporter's could be violent and nasty, but now that he's won, they've mellowed out. More B.S. from the master of B.S.:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-supporters-violent_us_5854c489e4b08debb7896896?vvrs37e99zveu3di (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-supporters-violent_us_5854c489e4b08debb7896896?vvrs37e99zveu3di)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 18, 2016, 05:01:29 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/majority-want-mondays-electoral-college-vote-postponed-in-wake-of-russia-scandal-new-poll_us_5855fdaae4b08debb7898779 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/majority-want-mondays-electoral-college-vote-postponed-in-wake-of-russia-scandal-new-poll_us_5855fdaae4b08debb7898779)

"Majority Want Monday’s Electoral College Vote Postponed In Wake Of Russia Scandal: New Poll."

extract:
WASHINGTON - A majority of American voters favor delaying the December 19th Electoral College vote until electors can be fully briefed on Russian interference in the election, according to a new poll conducted by YouGov.
The survey, sponsored by the progressive advocacy group Avaaz, found 52 percent of people supportive of stalling the vote, set to take place Monday.
A surprisingly high number of people ― 46 percent ― were also willing to support so-called “faithless electors,” the name given members of the Electoral College who spurn the vote of their home state and vote for a different candidate instead.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 18, 2016, 09:10:08 AM
What the majority of Americans want doesn't matter anymore, and it hasn't for some time. 

Republicans and the Trump wing becoming the American fascist party is the end game of the last 30 years of their anti-democratic philosophies and actions.  Too bad for the vast majority that doesn't want this.  So much pending degradation, sadness, pain, suffering, loss, destruction, and death, all of it completely unnecessary.  Just to feed the ego, thirst for vengeance, and bank account of a con man.

It's down to a small number of people that can make something happen between now and Jan 20.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 18, 2016, 04:11:39 PM
It's down to a small number of people that can make something happen between now and Jan 20.


When fighting the forces of darkness, persistence is essential.  Even if one loses nine battles in a row, one needs to line-up for the tenth battle.

The linked article is entitled: "Court: Removing 'faithless' electors may be unconstitutional".

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/electors-colorado-court-appeals-232777 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/electors-colorado-court-appeals-232777)

Extract: "A U.S. Appeals Court appears to have left open a narrow path for more members of the Electoral College to ditch Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

In a footnote appended to an order issued late Friday in a Colorado lawsuit, a three-judge panel of the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals suggested state officials may be constitutionally barred from removing electors once they've started voting."


Also see the linked article entitled: "Electors under siege".

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/electors-under-siege-232774 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/electors-under-siege-232774)

Extract: "On Monday, members of the Electoral College will cast their historic votes for the next president of the United States. In the meantime, they are under siege.
The nation’s 538 presidential electors have been thrust into the political foreground like never before in American history. In the aftermath of a uniquely polarizing presidential contest, the once-anonymous electors are squarely in the spotlight"

Edit, see also the following article entitled: "Five things to watch when the Electoral College votes Monday".

hehill.com/business-a-lobbying/310814-5-things-to-watch-for-when-the-electoral-college-votes-monday

Edit2, see also the following linked article entitled: "The Electoral College Meets Monday.  Here's What to Expect".  This makes it clear that the USA is a Republic and not a Democracy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/18/us/politics/the-electoral-college-meets-monday-heres-what-to-expect.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/18/us/politics/the-electoral-college-meets-monday-heres-what-to-expect.html?_r=0)

Extract: "On Friday, Jan. 6, at 1 p.m., members of the House and Senate will meet in the House chamber to count those votes. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., as the departing president of the Senate, is expected to preside over the count, during which every state’s vote is opened and announced in alphabetical order.
...
Not quite. At that point, Mr. Biden will ask if there are any objections, and lawmakers can then challenge either individual electoral votes or state results as a whole. If an elector has chosen to vote against state results, that is the moment when lawmakers can petition to throw that vote out.

Objections must be in writing and signed by at least one member of the House and one member of the Senate. If there are any objections, the House and Senate then immediately split up to consider them and have just two hours to decide whether they support the objection or not.

Both chambers will then reconvene and share their decisions; if both the House and Senate agree with the objection, then they will throw out the votes in question. But Congress has never sustained an objection to an electoral vote.

After any and all objections have been resolved, the results are considered final."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 19, 2016, 08:19:56 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/schumer-mccain-select-russia-hacking_us_5856d09ae4b03904470932c2 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/schumer-mccain-select-russia-hacking_us_5856d09ae4b03904470932c2)

"John McCain, Chuck Schumer Call For Select Committee To Investigate Russia Hacks."

“There’s no doubt they were interfering, and no doubt there was a cyberattack.”
-----

A select committee should be formed posthaste, and the electoral college vote should be postponed at least until more is known, though we know that wont happen.

If a select committee is formed and sufficient evidence is found to invalidate the 2016 election results, would that mean Pres. Trump and Vice Pres. Pence would have to resign and a new election scheduled?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 19, 2016, 11:24:40 PM
Good article in the Washington Post about Trump's "decision making process".  It really is F***ED up....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/12/19/why-we-should-be-terrified-of-donald-trumps-decision-making-process/?tid=pm_opinions_pop&utm_term=.ec40abb69449 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/12/19/why-we-should-be-terrified-of-donald-trumps-decision-making-process/?tid=pm_opinions_pop&utm_term=.ec40abb69449)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 19, 2016, 11:52:47 PM
Per the linked article entitled: "Donald Trump Secures Electoral College Win, With Few Surprises", Donald J. Trump will be the next POTUS.

http://www.npr.org/2016/12/19/506188169/donald-trump-poised-to-secure-electoral-college-win-with-few-surprises (http://www.npr.org/2016/12/19/506188169/donald-trump-poised-to-secure-electoral-college-win-with-few-surprises)

Extract: "‘Faithless’ Electors Mostly Came From States Clinton Won".
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 20, 2016, 08:08:09 PM
From USA today via MSN:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lawyer-appalled-by-fbi-warrant-that-shook-clinton/ar-BBxnnQ8?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lawyer-appalled-by-fbi-warrant-that-shook-clinton/ar-BBxnnQ8?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Extract: WASHINGTON — The FBI warrant that shook Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign in its final two weeks has been unsealed, and the lawyer who requested it says it offers "nothing at all" to merit the agency's actions leading up to the Nov. 8 election.
-----

The only word that comes to mind is "infuriating."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 20, 2016, 08:36:00 PM
The only word that comes to mind is "infuriating."

This election was one big con......by Comrade Trump.  It will be an ugly year or two....because he thinks he is immune from EVERYONE....and EVERYTHING.

Here we are....6 weeks after the election....and he has YET to have a press conference with questions.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 20, 2016, 10:03:05 PM
The linked article discusses the morality of Senate Democrats using Mitch McConnell's tactic of blocking Obama during Trump's presidency.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/center-for-community-change-action/senate-republicans-were-w_b_13745176.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/center-for-community-change-action/senate-republicans-were-w_b_13745176.html)

"Senate Republicans Were Wrong To Block Obama, But Senate Democrats Are Right To Block Trump."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 21, 2016, 01:54:56 AM
Donald J. Trump will be the next POTUS.

Perhaps, but there is time between now and Jan 20 for other developments.  This election cycle has proven this:  anything can happen, nothing is out of the question.

If Trump does take office, how much he plays ball with GOP leadership will determine if/when impeachment processes begin.  It's a sure thing he will create the necessary grounds to move forward.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 21, 2016, 02:59:23 AM
Donald J. Trump will be the next POTUS.

Perhaps, but there is time between now and Jan 20 for other developments.  This election cycle has proven this:  anything can happen, nothing is out of the question.

If Trump does take office, how much he plays ball with GOP leadership will determine if/when impeachment processes begin.  It's a sure thing he will create the necessary grounds to move forward.

I don't doubt that Trump will commit multiple impeachable offenses in short order; however, I have considerable doubt that the GOP leadership will have the integrity to bring him up on charges.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 21, 2016, 04:43:56 AM
I don't doubt that Trump will commit multiple impeachable offenses in short order; however, I have considerable doubt that the GOP leadership will have the integrity to bring him up on charges.

Agreed that GOP leadership lacks integrity. :-)

Ryan and McConnell primarily see Trump as a vehicle to enact their wish list of conservative policy prescriptions to roll back New Deal through Civil Rights era legislation, and pass more top earner tax cuts.  If Trump cooperates, they will protect him as one of their own.  But, we've seen that Trump is most concerned about Trump, and antagonizing his long list of enemies and even friends.  If Trump acts out, impeachment becomes a possibility.  He will be a target rich environment for high crimes and misdemeanors.  6000 year old earth believe Mike Pence would be horrible, but less so than Trump.

It would be interesting dilemma for Senate Democrats if the House votes to impeach.  Do they join the majority in convicting, or do they force the GOP to own Trump through the end of 2020.  Common sense and moral high ground says take down Trump if you can, so they would probably convict.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 21, 2016, 06:27:10 AM
I think the Republicans would prefer to have Pence as President, so if there is adequate grounds for impeachment, I think they'll pursue it. Pence would be more reliable and much more manageable than Trump would ever be. Furthermore, I think the chances of Trump getting re-elected in four years, should he survive his first term, is pretty close to zero, imho. With Trump removed from office during his first term, Pence stands a much better chance of winning in 2020.

If there is any way for the Democrats to force the Republicans to own Trump through 2020, they should, unless Trump's impeachable offenses are particularly egregious, (Which I expect will be the case.) In two years, there will be congressional elections and if Trump's first two years in office end up being a train wreck, there's a fair chance the Democrats could take control of the House of Representatives.

If the Democrats control the House after 2018, I think they would try to find ways of delaying a Trump impeachment, if at all possible. The Republicans may think they're in an enviable position right now, but there's a good chance they will "reap the whirlwind" sometime between 2017 and 2020.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: pileus on December 21, 2016, 08:35:13 AM
When given control, Republicans always overreach and fail.  Dems do this too, but Republicans always do the Icarus routine.  This time it's different, with an unstable variable as president.  Just means the the scope of the failure will likely be catastrophic for the GOP and Trump.  Some of the rest of us will be collateral damage, or bricks in the wall.  The nut wing media will only grow larger and stronger, and Gerry Mander is still around, so tough to see massive changes in 2018.  Demographics will win the day, maybe in 10 years. Dems can get the presidency in 2020, but the senate and house are probably GOP until mid 2020s.  The folks with economic anxiety will stick with the GOP, even after getting played by Trump.  But they face a losing numbers game.  The Supreme Court is gone for a generation unless Obama seats Garland.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 21, 2016, 07:01:22 PM
Trump changed everything. Now everything counts
By Barbara Kingsolver
If you’re among the majority of American voters who just voted against the party soon to control all three branches of our government, you’ve probably had a run of bad days. You felt this loss like a death in the family and coped with it as such: grieved with friends, comforted scared kids, got out the bottle of whisky, binge-watched Netflix. But we can’t hole up for four years waiting for something that’s gone. We just woke up in another country....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/23/trump-changed-everything-now-everything-counts (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/23/trump-changed-everything-now-everything-counts)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 22, 2016, 08:25:29 PM
Donald Trump won the Presidency by saying he would bring jobs back from overseas. The linked article from Fortune is about a Chinese billionaire who's moving manufacturing to the U.S. to cut costs!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/meet-the-chinese-billionaire-whos-moving-manufacturing-to-the-us-to-cut-costs/ar-BBxr39m?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/meet-the-chinese-billionaire-whos-moving-manufacturing-to-the-us-to-cut-costs/ar-BBxr39m?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: be cause on December 22, 2016, 08:39:58 PM
I hear Dumbald is going to build more , bigger . better . nuclear weapons than ever before . They will be beautiful . They will teach us great lessons . America will be ... add your own superlative ..
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 22, 2016, 08:51:25 PM
I hear Dumbald is going to build more , bigger . better . nuclear weapons than ever before . They will be beautiful . They will teach us great lessons . America will be ... add your own superlative ..

Funny! Dumbald, king of superlatives.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 24, 2016, 06:04:28 PM
Just a reminder to everyone on the site during the holiday season.....that there are a LOT of people less fortunate that we are....no matter WHAT your situation is.

As my dad used to say...."don't bitch like the man who lost his arm...because right around the block you can probably find someone who has lost both legs."

Go out of your way to be nice to people.....say hi....open a door for people (both literally AND figuratively).....it doesn't cost anything....and it helps society in general.  We will have to play hardball enough in the coming year(s) with Trump.  But there are a lot of people you CAN be nice to....be thoughtful to.....be helpful to.  Don't let Trump's egotistical bulliness....cause YOU to treat others like that.  Save your energy for Donald...you'll need it.

Everyone have a wonderful Holiday season.....and a fantastic New Year.  There may even be hope for my Ducks in the new year (OK....THAT, may be a reach:).

Happy Holidays.......Buddy

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 25, 2016, 07:20:37 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/progressive-causes-see-unprecedented-upswing-in-donations-after-us-election/ar-BBxxGTa?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/progressive-causes-see-unprecedented-upswing-in-donations-after-us-election/ar-BBxxGTa?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Donate Bigly: We make it easy to donate to awesome non-profits in honor of Trump, Pence and their binder of deplorable nominees.

Extract: Progressive causes in the US saw a spike in donations immediately after the election on 8 November from voters dismayed, outraged or even frightened by the outcome. In the weeks since, this wave of strategic giving has compounded.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 26, 2016, 02:49:33 PM
"Latest gallup [poll] numbers: net favorability for new Presidents December.
Bush 2000 +23
Obama 2008 +41
Trump 2016 -14
Trump lowest of last 50 yrs"
https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/813366922293166080
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 27, 2016, 03:01:33 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/donald-trump-donors-rewards-232974 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/donald-trump-donors-rewards-232974)

"Trump rewards big donors with jobs and access."

Extract: While campaign donors often are tapped to fill comfy diplomatic posts across the globe, the extent to which donors are stocking Trump’s administration is unparalleled in modern presidential history, due in part to the Supreme Court decisions that loosened restrictions on campaign contributions, according to three longtime campaign experts.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 27, 2016, 03:06:18 PM
This article by Sam Stein discusses whether James Comey is responsible for Clinton losing the election:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-comey-hillary-clinton_us_58617933e4b0eb586486f317 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-comey-hillary-clinton_us_58617933e4b0eb586486f317)

Extract:By the final week, the continuous revelations and conspiracy theories surrounding Clinton were taking a toll. Rainey had heard something about Clinton’s ties to a pedophilia ring ― a hoax that led an armed man to fire shots in a D.C.-based pizzeria. He found Clinton Foundation ties to the Saudis and Qatari government disturbing.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 27, 2016, 10:22:09 PM
This Wall Street Journal article highlights differences of opinion between Trump and his cabinet picks:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-cabinet-picks-disagree-with-him-on-key-issues/ar-BBxCz3S?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-cabinet-picks-disagree-with-him-on-key-issues/ar-BBxCz3S?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Extract: “No one is a carbon copy of the commander-in-chief,” said Ari Fleischer, who served as press secretary in the George W. Bush administration. “The key in the dynamic is the strength of the president and his ability to lead. If a president doesn’t have strong ideas about what to do, the advisers play a much more influential role. When a president has firm ideas, such as build a wall, create jobs in America through energy independence and cut taxes, it’s a lot easier for the advisers to salute and carry out the president’s orders.”
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 28, 2016, 04:00:56 PM
You can file this one away for 6 - 12 months down the road.....if consumer confidence starts to fade....then we'll see how much Trump will embrace those numbers.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-takes-credit-bump-consumer-confidence/story?id=44428234 (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-takes-credit-bump-consumer-confidence/story?id=44428234)

Consumer confidence numbers are NOTORIOUSLY not effective at predicting ANYTHING.  They have about a ZERO correlation with the market (either way).

I expect that Trump will take credit for anything good....and it will be Obama's fault for anything negative.  That is the way most pathological liars like Trump work.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 28, 2016, 05:08:58 PM
Typical Trump, taking credit for something that he had nothing to do with. Just like when he claimed he won the electoral vote by a landslide. Hubris with a capital H.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 28, 2016, 05:33:00 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/cristina-fernandez-kirchner-corruption_us_5862a409e4b0de3a08f63344 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/cristina-fernandez-kirchner-corruption_us_5862a409e4b0de3a08f63344)

You can change the face....and insert Donald's face....and change the circumstances somewhat:  Instead of trying to actually "steal" money....Donald will try to do it by PUSHING MONEY to his companies and accepting "favors" from other country's leaders.....as well as some corporate shenanigans (which is why he JUST HIRED HIS TRUMP ATTORNEY for a position in the White House).  Keep in mind....the attorney is a "transaction" attorney (ie business transactions....many times with real estate).

But keep in mind that Donald's ego is SO OUT OF CONTROL....that he thinks he can get away with ANYTHING.  That....is how pathological liars like Trump act.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 28, 2016, 06:37:15 PM
Donald's little hands....big ego....and thin skin, are NOT going to like either of the following:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/28/obama-beats-trump-where-it-will-sting-hes-the-most-admired-man-in-america/?utm_term=.77b3b4d8ec86 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/28/obama-beats-trump-where-it-will-sting-hes-the-most-admired-man-in-america/?utm_term=.77b3b4d8ec86)

http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/311990-giant-trump-rooster-statue-erected-outside-chinese-mall (http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/311990-giant-trump-rooster-statue-erected-outside-chinese-mall)

I can already sense a "twitter storm" brewing from the twit himself......
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 30, 2016, 12:19:40 PM
I think the question now is WHO in the Trump campaign was communicating with Russia on the hacks of the DNC?  Could be....and likely is....more than one person.

I have to believe there are people both IN GOVERNMENT and outside of government....NOW looking at that issue (CIA for the government.....and private investigators for newspapers and others outside of government).

And of course.....how long will it take to "unwind".  Will it be months....will it take more than a year?

The only reason Trump want's to "move on"......is because he knows what will happen WHEN it is discovered that his campaign had a "helpful hand" in allowing the Russian government to hack the DNC.

TICK....TICK.....TICK....TICK.....  It is only a matter of time...

This will make Watergate look like child's play.......

And Rudy Giuliani is almost assuredly one of the players who was in contact....either directly or indirectly, with the Russians.  Connect the dots.....


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 30, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Pretty funny comment on fb requesting Obama to hide the nuke launch codes between the pages of the Bible since it's obvious the possible future government of US won't check there.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on December 30, 2016, 05:07:17 PM
I need some help.  I'm NOT the most creative thing in the world.....and I'm trying to come up with a DESCRIPTIVE AND ACCURATE "nickname" for my buddy Donald Trump.  I've come up with two so far...but like I said....I'm not that creative....so I'll welcome any and all help:

1)  Sir Lies Alot
2)  The Liar King

Any help will be appreciated...... :)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 30, 2016, 06:06:56 PM
How about "Donald Twitterump"?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on December 31, 2016, 06:42:14 AM
The linked articles show diametric points of view on the Russian hacking issue. The one from Huffington Post is about Trump praising Putin for not retaliating, while CNN 's is about John McCain viewing Putin's action as an "act of war."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-vladimir-putin_us_5866b8e1e4b0eb58648952e0 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-vladimir-putin_us_5866b8e1e4b0eb58648952e0)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/30/politics/mccain-cyber-hearing/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/30/politics/mccain-cyber-hearing/index.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 02, 2017, 01:49:08 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-biographer-golf-course-233092 (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-biographer-golf-course-233092)

"Trump kicks biographer off golf course."

"Harry Hurt, who was golfing with David Koch, had written a critical book about the president-elect."

Extract: Hurt is the author of “Lost Tycoon: The Many Lives of Donald J. Trump,” a 1993 book that revealed among other things that Trump was accused of “rape” by his ex-wife Ivana Trump in a sworn deposition during their divorce proceedings.

-----

Biographer Harry Hurt went over to Donald Trump to congratulate him on his election victory. Trump ordered him removed from the premises. David Koch (one of the Koch brothers) and a member of this golf club was told his party could play without Mr. Hurt or leave. Way to go Donny!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 03, 2017, 10:59:39 PM
Well let's give Trump credit for getting House Republicans to back off on their attempt to gut the independent Office of Congressional Ethics.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38499284 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38499284)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: wili on January 04, 2017, 07:08:58 AM
I think the article give tRump too much credit. Lots of people I know were calling their congressfolks about this, and I'm sure none of them were doing it because of any freakin' tweet by our new Twitler. It was mostly an spontaneous uprising from across the political spectrum, and I hope we see more of the same going forward!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 04, 2017, 12:34:02 PM
I think the article give tRump too much credit.

Agree.  People shouldn't be given "credit" for the obvious.  It's not a good idea to take a grenade into a movie theatre.  But someone shouldn't be given credit for saying that.  ITS OBVIOUS.

What this issue DOES DO....is two things:

1)  It points out how corrupt the Republican party has become.
2)  It may show....to some of those corrupt Republican's....that Donald isn't concerned about their liability on corruption....he is only concerned ABOUT HIS LIABILITY IN CORRUPTION ISSUES.  And THAT....may come into play many months (12 - 24) down the road...

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 04, 2017, 01:02:57 PM
Let's say you have the task of hiring the Secretary of Energy for the United States....and the two following candidates send in their resumes to you....and this is your choice.  Do you even interview Rick Perry?
==========================================================

1)  Outgoing person:  Ernest Moniz

Moniz attended Boston College, where he received his Bachelor of Science summa cum laude in physics. He received his PhD in theoretical physics from Stanford University in 1972.[7][8]

Moniz worked in the United States Department of Energy, serving as Under Secretary of Energy from 1997 to 2001.  In 2013, he received the title of Doctor Honoris Causa from the Universidad Pontificia Comillas de Madrid as a recognition of his research on energy policies and technologies.

2) Incoming Nominee:  Rick Perry (former Governor of Texas)

Attended Texas A&M....and graduated with an undergraduate degree in "Animal Science" with a 2.2 GPA (yes....that is HORRIBLE).

Perry served in the US Air Force.....and after service, returned to farming until he ran for political office in 1984.  He served as Governor of Texas

https://mic.com/articles/162340/future-energy-secretary-rick-perry-got-a-d-in-a-college-class-called-meats#.UO3C7CtWY

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: shmengie on January 04, 2017, 01:46:36 PM
Congresses ploy to gut the Office of Congressional Ethics is like something out Trumps playbook.

Lead with something so outrageous, everyone's jaw drops.  Then whatever else happens next is nothing compared to the opening line...  PPL who *think* they understand, are dizzy from the opening line...

Trump claims he put an end to it???  I don't know, I suspect he put 'em up to it or bannon did...  But thats sheer conjecture on my part.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 04, 2017, 03:07:35 PM
I think the article give tRump too much credit. Lots of people I know were calling their congressfolks about this, and I'm sure none of them were doing it because of any freakin' tweet by our new Twitler. It was mostly an spontaneous uprising from across the political spectrum, and I hope we see more of the same going forward!

Clearly the groundswell of opposition from constituents was the deciding factor. All the criticism we've had against Trump is well deserved, and he's in no position to criticize anyone about a lack of ethics. On the other hand,  no matter how small his contribution in this matter, it does warrant  mentioning. I'm sure my opinion on this will be in the minority.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 04, 2017, 04:54:59 PM
Prewiously tehre wrere nou streit woords comin fromm politishans mauths. This has now changed so proposing the nick 'þfiwnbairn' for the prz-electroate to reflect this change. 'þfiwnba' for short with a non-written 'h' in the end.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 04, 2017, 11:01:45 PM
Prewiously tehre wrere nou streit woords comin fromm politishans mauths. This has now changed so proposing the nick 'þfiwnbairn' for the prz-electroate to reflect this change. 'þfiwnba' for short with a non-written 'h' in the end.

Interesting post PMT, but it's meaning eludes me, although it was fun trying to figure it out.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 05, 2017, 02:33:14 AM
Jokes are meant to be fun, so I think this comment on the comprehensibility of þfiwnba has served its purpose. Of course it's not possible to use þ in a nickname since there's no such letter on the keyboard!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 05, 2017, 03:34:39 PM
More bad news on the jobs front in the US.  Jobless claims were down to 235,000 for the week.  That is the LOWEST level of jobless claims since November of 1973 when there were 233,000.  If Obama keeps this up....everyone will be employed by the time Donnie gets the "keys".

Keep in mind....that the TOTAL NUMBER OF JOBS in 1973 was MUCH...MUCH....smaller than it is now (about 40% less).  So...to have such a SMALL number of unemployment claims....on a much LARGER work base....is FANTASTIC.

Boy I'm sure glad we're changing administrations over to the Republicans so we can rid ourselves of all this BAD NEWS on the jobs front ;)

And I'm sure glad that Donald Trump is going to make RUSSIA GREAT AGAIN (cause the US is already there)....

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN14P1IR (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN14P1IR)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 05, 2017, 04:03:16 PM
The three biggest (bigley?) things that Donnie has wrong:

1)  Global warming is NOT a scam...and is continuing to increase.  It will rear its ugly head in the coming months and next year or two to bite him (and others) in the butt.

2)  US economy is near FULL EMPLOYMENT.  It can get better....but not a LOT better.

3)  If he gets rid of Obamacare......shit will hit the fan.

This is going to be an interesting ride over the next year or two..... ;)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 05, 2017, 06:43:34 PM
The linked article is entitled: "The Daily 202: Republicans run the spread offense to ram through Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees", and shows how the GOP is actively working to short-circuit the checks and balances role afforded to the media.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/01/05/daily-202-republicans-run-the-spread-offense-to-ram-through-donald-trump-s-cabinet-nominees/586d9c88e9b69b36fcfeafa6/?utm_term=.e0e9f4b95a0f (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/01/05/daily-202-republicans-run-the-spread-offense-to-ram-through-donald-trump-s-cabinet-nominees/586d9c88e9b69b36fcfeafa6/?utm_term=.e0e9f4b95a0f)

Extract: "THE BIG IDEA: By scheduling six confirmation hearings for the same day, the Senate GOP is working to prevent any one Donald Trump nominee from dominating a news cycle. The gambit is very likely to succeed.

It’s no coincidence that Republican committee chairmen scheduled hearings for some of the president-elect’s most controversial and polarizing nominees next Wednesday.

Trump, after putting it off repeatedly, will also finally have his first press conference since the election at the same time. And Mitch McConnell plans a budget vote-o-rama, including votes related to the repeal of Obamacare. This will further distract the press and the public."


See also the article entitled: "How To Overwhelm The Media - Stacking A Press Conference and Six Confirmation Hearings On One Day, Trump And McConnell Try To Avoid Scrutiny"


http://mediamatters.org/blog/2017/01/05/how-overwhelm-media/214932 (http://mediamatters.org/blog/2017/01/05/how-overwhelm-media/214932)

Edit for the role of the "Fourth Branch" of government in the USA see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_branch_of_government (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_branch_of_government)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 05, 2017, 07:20:30 PM
The Church Of Scientology.....vs....The Church of Trump.

I am always amazed at how easily some people (many people?) are swayed by an "outside source".  I have always noticed how easily marketing people "sell" things to people who clearly didn't need...and many times either couldn't or SHOULDN'T afford it.

And the same seems to go with religion (I'm a member of the "Church of Neil Degrasse Tyson").  But the Church of Scientology has ALWAYS AMAZED ME at how they could con someone into joining.  And as I read a sentence of the article.....I INSTANTLY thought of Trump.  If you have time...read the article....it's pretty short...and revealing.  But here is the sentence that hit home:

"The church’s recruitment methods all seemed to be directed at finding a specific kind of person: someone who was vulnerable, overwhelmed by his or her shortcomings, someone who had poor communication skills, who lacked confidence, and was desperate for help."

And THAT....is the same people that Trump was looking for.....AND FOUND.

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 05, 2017, 07:37:27 PM
That's a very good analogy Buddy. The type of people you describe are easily drawn to other cults and fundamentalist churches as well, whether it be Christianity, Islam or others.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 06, 2017, 12:27:22 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeff-sessions-attorney-general_us_586e85e4e4b099cdb0fbed27?jxo8pzbyegbvs4i (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeff-sessions-attorney-general_us_586e85e4e4b099cdb0fbed27?jxo8pzbyegbvs4i)

"More Than 1,300 Law Professors Oppose Jeff Sessions For AG."

Extract: In an open letter to leaders of the committee, which will hold confirmation hearings for Sessions next week, professors from 178 law schools raise concerns about the Alabama senator’s ability to treat black people fairly given what happened during his 1986 bid to be a federal judge. His nomination was rejected, in a bipartisan vote, over allegations he called a black attorney “boy” and suggested a white lawyer working for black clients was a race traitor, among other issues.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 07, 2017, 07:01:14 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/no-trump-electoral-college-challenge-233294 (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/no-trump-electoral-college-challenge-233294)

"House Democrats fail to muster support to challenge Trump’s Electoral College win."

As expected, no Democrat senators were interested in endorsing a challenge to Trump's win in the Electoral College. If there had been one or two senators willing to challenge, what would be the chances that they would have succeeded, especially considering the Russian attempts at influencing our election?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 07, 2017, 09:15:19 PM
Comrade Trump continues to dig his own grave.  This will take time....but it is going to happen.  The Russian hacking was always clear to me.....but now it will be clear to others.  The thing that we don't know YET....is the involvement, if any, of any of the Trump campaign team during the election.  I have no doubt that they were complicit with the Russians.  It will only be a matter of time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0myL6HPpy-c (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0myL6HPpy-c)

Here is the 5 page document available to the public.  If you go to the bottom of the link....it takes you to the entire 25 page document....but only 5 PAGES are the actual findings themselves (pages 11 - 15).  It makes for some interesting reading.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/01/read-us-intelligence-report-russian-hacking-2016-campaign (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/01/read-us-intelligence-report-russian-hacking-2016-campaign)

Comrade Trump....making Russia and himself great again.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 08, 2017, 02:52:09 AM
In the linked article, Democrats are calling on Senate Republicans to delay hearings for Trump's cabinet picks, citing an incomplete ethics screening of several nominees.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dems-call-for-senate-to-delay-hearings-on-trumps-cabinet-picks/ar-BBy11H5?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dems-call-for-senate-to-delay-hearings-on-trumps-cabinet-picks/ar-BBy11H5?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Extract: Earlier on Saturday, the director of the federal Office of Government Ethics, a watchdog agency that conducts ethics reviews of all Cabinet appointments, said that the plan to hold confirmation hearings before the ethics reviews are complete is "of great concern."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 08, 2017, 05:31:24 AM
This NY Times piece talks about Trump supporter's reaction to the Russian hacking report.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%E2%80%98what%E2%80%99s-the-big-deal%E2%80%99-ask-trump-voters-on-russia-hacking-report/ar-BBy19hu?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%E2%80%98what%E2%80%99s-the-big-deal%E2%80%99-ask-trump-voters-on-russia-hacking-report/ar-BBy19hu?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)

Typical comments were; "What's the big deal", "sour grapes", "bunch of crybabies", "I don't believe it", and "why is everyone afraid of Russia?" If Clinton had won the election, I'm sure these same people would be crying "conspiracy."
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 08, 2017, 05:52:13 AM
Comrade Trump....making Russia and himself great again.


Speaking of Comrade Trump and Putin, does anyone remember a 1987 miniseries called "Amerika" regarding a Russian takeover of America? This Politico Magazine article draws some parallels between that miniseries and possible future consequences of the recent U.S. Presidential election, as well as Russia's role in influencing the election.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/the-1987-tv-miniseries-that-predicted-a-russian-takeover-of-america-214609 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/the-1987-tv-miniseries-that-predicted-a-russian-takeover-of-america-214609)

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 10, 2017, 02:20:33 AM
In a bit of "turnabout", minority leader Sen. Chuck Schumer is using an eight year old letter Sen. Mitch McConnell sent to then majority leader Sen. Harry Reid stating his insistence that Presidential appointees be thoroughly vetted before they can receive a hearing.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chuck-schumer-delays-trump-cabinet_us_5873fda9e4b043ad97e53ba0?6kow1hf6xs9x2bj4i (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chuck-schumer-delays-trump-cabinet_us_5873fda9e4b043ad97e53ba0?6kow1hf6xs9x2bj4i)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 10, 2017, 08:34:45 AM
Democratic Senator Cory Booker and Democratic Congressman John Lewis will testify against Sen. Jeff Sessions at his upcoming confirmation hearing next week. A Senator testifying against another Senator for confirmation is unprecedented.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/09/politics/cory-booker-jeff-sessions-confirmation-hearing/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/09/politics/cory-booker-jeff-sessions-confirmation-hearing/index.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2017, 04:36:46 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Donald Trump’s ‘first attempt to ignore the law’.  When a president believes that he is above the law, we are all in for a wild ride.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/10/donald-trumps-first-attempt-to-ignore-the-law/?utm_term=.f0aacaaf1233 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/10/donald-trumps-first-attempt-to-ignore-the-law/?utm_term=.f0aacaaf1233)

Extract: "President-elect Donald Trump intends to name his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as a senior adviser to his White House — a move that would put to the test a 1967 anti-nepotism law and provide a Trump White House already rife with ethical questions a bona fide legal showdown."

See also:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/09/hillary-clinton-helped-pave-way-for-jared-kushner-in-the-white-house.html (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/09/hillary-clinton-helped-pave-way-for-jared-kushner-in-the-white-house.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 11, 2017, 03:55:46 PM
Tick....tick....tick...tick....

Time is ticking away until the bomb blows up in his face.  Will it be one month from now....one year from now?  No idea.  But I know the bomb is ticking.....

That's the funny thing about the truth.  IT NEVER GOES AWAY.  EVER.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-nazi-germany_us_58762cc8e4b03c8a02d43516?3mt4aho0uhrrudi (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-nazi-germany_us_58762cc8e4b03c8a02d43516?3mt4aho0uhrrudi)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on January 11, 2017, 05:28:45 PM
Is this the smoking gun?  CNN did well !
I have to wonder - if Russia can get lots of information on DNC - what could they find on Trump .... and then use as leverage if they choose not to publish.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/kenbensinger/these-reports-allege-trump-has-deep-ties-to-russia?utm_term=.cuvM7OR8X#.bi42MrldW (https://www.buzzfeed.com/kenbensinger/these-reports-allege-trump-has-deep-ties-to-russia?utm_term=.cuvM7OR8X#.bi42MrldW)

Which links to:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3259984-Trump-Intelligence-Allegations.html (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3259984-Trump-Intelligence-Allegations.html)

Dont know how long it will stay!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on January 11, 2017, 07:11:14 PM
Tick....tick....tick...tick....
That's the funny thing about the truth.  IT NEVER GOES AWAY.  EVER.

i can't stress enough how much i love that in BOLD. it's key to most of things and whoever doesn't see (recognize) and/or respect (accept) facts (truth) is doomed and if not himself than his descendants (Rome, Greece, Egypt etc.)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 12, 2017, 12:57:34 PM
The march towards impeachment OR removal from office continues.  Remember....this is a PROCESS.  It will take time.  But yesterday was another movement along that continuum.

Trump had his first press conference in 5 months.  NOTE:  He doesn't trust the press....and he doesn't trust the intelligence agencies.  HE ONLY TRUSTS HIS VERY TIGHT CIRCLE OF FAMILY AND CLOSE ADVISORS.  Also note....that does NOT extend out to all the cabinet members (except for Sessions for sure....and possibly Tillerson).

Trump is a pathological liar......and....like Nixon, he will lie about everything.  He also thinks everyone is "out to get him".  Part of that is true.....but only because he has been a lying machine for over a year....and some people are tiring of it. 

It was interesting to see that CNN decided to "grow a pair".....after more than a year of being neutered.  And THAT is really the "step" that we took yesterday:  The first real "challenge" by the press.   

The press conference wasn't a real press conference.....it was another fake show by Donald Trump.  For those of you that haven't seen it yet....you should.

Here is just a short highlight clip:   https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004865282/highlights-of-trumps-news-conference.html (https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004865282/highlights-of-trumps-news-conference.html)

Here is the whole 1 hour "show":
https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004865278/watch-live-trump-news-conference.html (https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004865278/watch-live-trump-news-conference.html)

Look for the contention between the press (the REAL press....not FOX, Breitbart News, and other FAKE PRESS) and Trump's team to continue to crack.  What I will be looking for is how other real news outlets like NBC, CBS, ABC, foreign press and others react in coming days/weeks/months.  Will they also "grow a pair" and begin to "sharpen" their questions?

Remember.....Steve Bannon used to work for Breitbart News (and likely still does UNOFFICIALLY).  Breitbart News, FOX, and the Enquirer (yes...that trash mag Enquirer) will be the FAKE PRESS that Trump uses.  Just like Putin uses his press.....Trump will use his.  Trump has to "control the message".....and Steve Bannon and Kellyann Conway will make sure he does so.

The other BIG TEST in the coming couple of weeks....will be testing of a couple of Trump's cabinet nominee's.  Marco Rubio likely has the deciding vote in committee as to whether or not Tillerson is passed along to be voted on as Secretary of State.  If Rubio votes AGAINST Tillerson and all the Democrats on committee do so as well (which is LIKELY).....then Tillerson would NOT be passed along to the senate to be voted on...and he would be history.  I don't think that Rubio has the balls to vote against Tillerson....so I expect him to be passed to the senate for a vote.  But IF Rubio voted AGAINST Tillerson....that would be a BIG DEAL....and another big early step in this whole process.

The other cabinet nominee that might face a test is Senator Sessions.  Corey Booker...Senator from New Jersey testified AGAINST Sessions yesterday.  That was the first time that a CURRENT SENATOR has ever testified against another sitting Senator for a cabinet position.  Yes....Corey has balls. ;)

Remember....Trump has ALREADY COMMITTED THE SINS FOR WHICH HE WILL BE OUSTED.  But now the process of (1) bashing the press (2) making bad decisions (3) becoming more unhinged (4) fracturing of the Republican side between pro and anti Trump forces.........those things now have to play out over the coming months (12 - 18 months to give a "ball park" figure).

In life....things that don't kill you...end up making you stronger.  I'm afraid the US is going to be going through a very tough period of time where Democracy will truly be tested.  The press......Congress......and citizens.....will all have a part in how this plays out.


   
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 12, 2017, 01:10:55 PM
BBC claims a second source backs up Trump dossier.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bbc-claims-a-second-source-backs-up-trump-dossier/ar-AAlM8Fe?li=AA5a8k&ocid=spartandhp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bbc-claims-a-second-source-backs-up-trump-dossier/ar-AAlM8Fe?li=AA5a8k&ocid=spartandhp)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 12, 2017, 07:34:40 PM
Tick....tick....tick....tick...tick.....

The Justice Department Inspector General just announced he is investigating the FBI's involvement in the US presidential election.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-clinton-idUSKBN14W2NT (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-clinton-idUSKBN14W2NT)

Remember....there are TWO FRONTS that Trump is likely to be impeached on:

1)  The Russian involvement in the elections and any help or assistance by Trump's folks

2)  The FBI's involvement in the elections and Director Comey's involvement.

AGAIN....key players to watch:

1)  Trump and his family
2)  Rudy Guiliani and any of HIS close confidants
3)  Representative Chaffetz of Utah and his contacts within the FBI

If they smell like rats.....look like rats.....act like rats....and talk like rats......they're usually RATS.

My prediction:

1)  Rudy Guiliani ENDS UP IN JAIL
2)  Jason Chaffitz..representative from Utah ENDS UP IN JAIL


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Csnavywx on January 13, 2017, 07:16:21 AM
Tick....tick....tick....tick...tick.....

The Justice Department Inspector General just announced he is investigating the FBI's involvement in the US presidential election.

[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-clinton-idUSKBN14W2NT[/url] ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-clinton-idUSKBN14W2NT[/url])

Remember....there are TWO FRONTS that Trump is likely to be impeached on:

1)  The Russian involvement in the elections and any help or assistance by Trump's folks

2)  The FBI's involvement in the elections and Director Comey's involvement.

AGAIN....key players to watch:

1)  Trump and his family
2)  Rudy Guiliani and any of HIS close confidants
3)  Representative Chaffetz of Utah and his contacts within the FBI

If they smell like rats.....look like rats.....act like rats....and talk like rats......they're usually RATS.

My prediction:

1)  Rudy Guiliani ENDS UP IN JAIL
2)  Jason Chaffitz..representative from Utah ENDS UP IN JAIL



I'm gonna try to be gentle here:

https://theintercept.com/2017/01/11/the-deep-state-goes-to-war-with-president-elect-using-unverified-claims-as-dems-cheer/ (https://theintercept.com/2017/01/11/the-deep-state-goes-to-war-with-president-elect-using-unverified-claims-as-dems-cheer/)

That's Greenwald of Snowden fame.

And a slightly different take from the always solid Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-russia-story-reaches-a-crisis-point-w460806 (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-russia-story-reaches-a-crisis-point-w460806)


The thing that makes me uneasy about all of this is that the neocons have come out full force in support of all of this Russia stuff. Am I the only one uncomfortable with lining up with a group of people who have a repeated history of dragging us into protracted wars, conflict and widespread human misery? Not to mention the wasted money. Yeah, I'm gonna back away from this one -- smells like a big nothingburger right now. One designed to keep us on the road to conflict.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 13, 2017, 07:56:51 AM
It seems to be getting harder to find the truth in all this. You're counter to Buddy's assertions certainly have merit, but wherever the actual truth lies, Trump has brought a lot of this on himself IMHO. The election results notwithstanding, he has flouted the usual norms and has brought a great deal of suspicion on himself.

Yesterday's press conference for example; 1. Nobody other than the media is interested in his tax returns. 2. The "not so" blind trust. 3. Not allowing the CNN correspondent to ask a question. 4.  The presence of Donald, Ivanka and Eric Trump at the news conference, etc.

His actions and/or reactions have raised so many red flags, It's no wonder that anyone who didn't vote for Trump, which happens to be slightly more than 50% of voters is alarmed and trying to make sense out of the reality we are facing.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 13, 2017, 11:22:50 AM
I don't give the Russian dossier issue ANY weight.  To me...it is a NON-ISSUE.  I am MORE than comfortable with the FACTS we have already....as well as "dots" that are BEGGING to be connected by further facts we don't know YET.  AGAIN.....these things take time.  I'm a CPA...I look for facts...roaches...and rats.  We have some of each.  More facts will come over time..

The Russian dossier issue is for the comedians.....

The FBI issue is where Chaffitz and Guliani are going to get hung....
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on January 13, 2017, 12:47:22 PM
Budmantis

You mention the "50% of voters" who didn't vote for Trump... caused me to look at the numbers as the % figures seem a bit odd.   

There doesn't seem a single source that summarises the figures - so apologies if I havent got it right, the overseas votes are a bit confused - but presumably distributed in the total votes (even if not all included in the population total):

                                    Votes        Clinton    Trump
Votes - million       :            138         62.5         61.2
Total population    :   323     42.7%   19.3%   18.9%
Voting age       :        251     55.0%   24.9%   24.4%
Eligible voting age :   231     59.7%   27.1%   26.5%
Registered voters :    200     69.0%   31.3%   30.6%
Actual votes:            138       ……       45.3%   44.3%
Vote Clinton Trump   123.7   ....          50.5%   49.5%

Apologies for the formatting if table is a bit jumbled - I dont seem to have the ability to use the text tricks when posting (bold / tables etc).

So... I agree we are in for a stormy time ahead as your 4 issues illustrate.  I think the "I know best" approach is the most dangerous - as he seems to feed on any conspiracy theories, hates anything that might tarnish his image and judges or decide more by personality than principles.   

I wonder how long his cabinet picks - if confirmed - will manage to hold a sensible line....  I think there will be a lot of volatility ahead, as his often damning tweets have a drastic effect on companies etc. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 13, 2017, 02:21:41 PM
Registered voters :    200     69.0%   31.3%   30.6%
Actual votes:            138       ……       45.3%   44.3%
Vote Clinton Trump   123.7   ....          50.5%   49.5%

And I think you need to concentrate on the 30% of registered voters who voted for Trump:

1)  Some of those are either "Bernie voters" OR disaffected voters that were voting for a change....NO MATTER WHO.  By the way....that is Bernie would have beat Trump, even though Bernie is about as far left as you can get.

2)  Some of those are "coalies" (coal miners and relatives) who thinks that "Trump digs coal".  Guess what....they are going to be VERY DISSAPOINTED in coming months when coal doesn't come back.  Except for steel making....coal is on a long decline to ZERO.

3)  Some of those voters just didn't trust Clinton.  Dishonest Donald did a GREAT PR job on Clinton...and it paid off.  When they find out that Dishonest Donald is twice as bad as Hillary....they may not be thrilled.


So... I agree we are in for a stormy time ahead as your 4 issues illustrate.  I think the "I know best" approach is the most dangerous - as he seems to feed on any conspiracy theories, hates anything that might tarnish his image and judges or decide more by personality than principles.

"I know best will work....until he fails."  Trade war with China....possible.  Piss off Europeans who don't trust Putin....possible.

I wonder how long his cabinet picks - if confirmed - will manage to hold a sensible line....  I think there will be a lot of volatility ahead, as his often damning tweets have a drastic effect on companies etc. 

I don't think Donald Trump cares what his cabinet folks think.  Donald Trump's ego is SO FAR OUT OVER THE TIPS OF HIS SKIIS.....he doesn't see anybody.  Donald thinks Donald knows everything.

The press is going to be the interesting thing to me.  There are MANY on the Republican side that are more than FINE with pushing down the press.   Chaffitz....Guiliani.....Trump....Ryan...McConnell......they don't want the press to question them.  The only place they show up is on the FOX softball toss.  There....they are amongst friends and sheep.  A very safe place to be.

It is going to be a VERY CONTENTIOUS first year for Comrade Trump......

He has the most under-qualified cabinet in modern history.  And any time you put a CON MAN in charge of a group.....you know that bad things are going to happen.  It is only a matter of time.....and a matter of their being enough sane folks in the nut house to hold him accountable. 
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 13, 2017, 02:53:44 PM
Some of you may have heard the phrase "parallel universe" from time to time.  Well.....instead of a parallel universe.....here is something from a PERPENDICULAR UNIVERSE:

Here's a clip of Rudy Guiliani......talking about ETHICS AND FAKE NEWS......to the king of fake news, Sean Hannity.....on THE CHANNEL THAT INVENTED FAKE NEWS....FOX.  It doesn't get any more ludicrous than this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-free-press_us_5878520fe4b0b3c7a7b0b098 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-free-press_us_5878520fe4b0b3c7a7b0b098)

Remember......Megyn Kelly has now left FOX News......so they have a "pure white male lineup" for Trump on FOX. 

Ruppert Murdoch controls FOX and Wall Street Journal.  Breitbart is "controlled" by Bannon's pals at Breitbart News.......Trump's son in law controls the New York Post.......and "friends" control the Enquirer.

It will be interesting to see the journalism wars that break out over the coming year between REAL JOURNALISM......and the FAKE NEWS of FOX, WSJ, and Breitbart.

It is going to get real ugly.

By the way......there have been 200 bus reservations for parking purposes for the Trump inauguration on January 20th.  There have been 1,300 bus reservations for the Women's March on January 21st.

There were 3,000 bus reservations for Obama's first inaugural.

So if you're going to the inauguration......no need to hurry for tickets ;)  I wonder how many actors that Dimwit Donnie is going to hire to go to his inauguration?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/local/wp/2017/01/12/200-buses-have-applied-for-city-parking-on-inauguration-day-1200-have-applied-for-the-womens-march/?utm_term=.a702b64841f1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/local/wp/2017/01/12/200-buses-have-applied-for-city-parking-on-inauguration-day-1200-have-applied-for-the-womens-march/?utm_term=.a702b64841f1)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 13, 2017, 04:45:49 PM
I'm a broken record :o......WATCH CHAFFETZ AND GUILIANI

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jason-chaffetz-oge-shaub-subpoena_us_5878eb81e4b09281d0ea6c05 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jason-chaffetz-oge-shaub-subpoena_us_5878eb81e4b09281d0ea6c05)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 13, 2017, 11:01:47 PM
tick...tick....tick....tick....tick....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-lewis-trump-not-legitimate_us_58792bfee4b0b3c7a7b1303a? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-lewis-trump-not-legitimate_us_58792bfee4b0b3c7a7b1303a?)

Trump's camp has been fighting FURIOUSLY against the notion of the Russian hacking.....because they don't want Trump to be seen as an illegitimate president (even though he is).  Let's face it....with Comey and the Russian hacking......Donald would be back in New York thinking up his newest scam business for Trump Enterprises (instead of being president AND thinking up the next scam for TE:).

I expect Rep Lewis is just the first of MANY on the Democratic side who will continue to  move in that direction.  What will REALLY start to break the back of Trump, is if (when) Republicans start to consider that idea.  We're MANY MONTHS away from something like that happening.  But I believe it is coming......


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 14, 2017, 04:41:16 AM
Tick.....tick.....tick.....tick.....tick

Giuliani and Chaffetz are in DEEP SHIT.....and it's getting DEEPER.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 14, 2017, 05:57:20 AM
I wonder how long his cabinet picks - if confirmed - will manage to hold a sensible line....  I think there will be a lot of volatility ahead, as his often damning tweets have a drastic effect on companies etc.

Thanks Charles Oil. All I can say is Trump's presidency and what will happen just fills me with dread. Buddy seems to think he'll be impeached and I certainly hope he does. It's going to have to come from the Republicans though, as they have control of the executive and legislative branch of government. They're in a position they've longed to be in for a decade.


Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 14, 2017, 09:12:56 PM
Three issues are going to DOMINATE the news in 2017:

1)  Russian involvement in the 2016 US presidential election with knowledge and involvement by some in the Trump camp
2)  FBI involvement in the 2016 election.....with involvement by the Trump camp, Rudy Guiliani, and US representative from Utah Jason Chaffetz
3)  The acceleration of global warming....with significant exposure given to the acceleration of melting sea ice, and the clash of climate deniers in the Trump camp as well as others in the Republican party.....vs....the main stream scientists.

Momentum of EACH issue will be fascinating to watch.  Right out of the gate....Senator Marco Rubio no doubt has pressure on both sides regarding the Russian involvement.  If he gets that WRONG.....then any long term aspirations he has for higher office are likely ended.  If he votes FOR passing along Rex Tillerson to the senate to be voted on......his long term aspirations will likely be ended when Donald Trump is ultimately run out of office....most likely next year, in 2018.

If Rubio votes against Tillerson in committee....it will also speed along the process for ultimately pushing/throwing Trump out of office.  Momentum is a POWERFUL THING.....the more momentum this process gains....the faster it will happen.

Currently we are slightly ahead of the pace of 1973 during the Nixon scandal of Watergate.  And Nixon wasn't ousted from office until early August of 1974....a little more than 18 months after his 2nd inauguration.

Interesting times.....  Here is the link to Wikipedia on the Watergate scandal.  Interesting reading:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watergate_scandal




Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Milret2 on January 14, 2017, 10:04:05 PM
I thought you might enjoy reading what a fellow felt were good and solid questions to ask at President Elect Donald Trump's* press conferences. I enjoyed reading it and pretty much agree with it.


"Questions that should be asked of Trump at his press conference":
» What the fuck is wrong with you?
» Have you paid your 25 million-dollar fine yet for swindling all those working-class Americans via your Trump University scam? If so, was any Trump Foundation money used to pay that massive fraud-related fine?
» How is that formal judicial investigation into wrongdoing by your foundation going, anyway?
» Meryl Streep didn't mention you by name in her Golden Globes speech, so why did you automatically assume she was talking about you as the one mocking the disabled if you say you've never mocked the disabled?
» How many other people besides that one guy have you criticized by waving your arms around in a spastic, jerky fashion while shaking your head uncontrollably and acting like you have a speech impediment?
» Moving on to Russia’s blackmail dossier on you: should parents watching at home send their children out of the room while we discuss this part?
» When you said “There were attempts to hack the Republican National Committee, but the RNC had strong hacking defenses and the hackers were unsuccessful," a statement contradicted by the Intelligence report, were you lying or just ignorant about what was in the report?
» Heyyyy…how's that Obamacare replacement going?
» Thirty-seven percent approval rating? How bad do you have to suck to get thirty-seven percent during your pre-inauguration honeymoon period?!!
» Your nominee for attorney general confirms that grabbing a woman by the genitals constitutes sexual assault. Since there's tape of you admitting to doing that on multiple occasions, do you plan to pre-pardon yourself like a coward or will you face a court of law like a man?
» Do you believe that the protections in the 28th Amendment are strong enough, or do they need revisiting?
» What's up with your fixation with ball dresses? Why are you claiming they’re sold out in Washington D.C. when they've got a shit-ton of inventory left? Do you know that you are now the only president-elect to ever obsess over ball dresses nine days before the weight of the entire world will be dropped to your shoulders?
» No, really…what the fuck is wrong with you?
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: magnamentis on January 14, 2017, 10:22:08 PM
I thought you might enjoy reading what a fellow felt were good and solid questions to ask at President Elect Donald Trump's* press conferences. I enjoyed reading it and pretty much agree with it.


"Questions that should be asked of Trump at his press conference":
» What the fuck is wrong with you?
» Have you paid your 25 million-dollar fine yet for swindling all those working-class Americans via your Trump University scam? If so, was any Trump Foundation money used to pay that massive fraud-related fine?
» How is that formal judicial investigation into wrongdoing by your foundation going, anyway?
» Meryl Streep didn't mention you by name in her Golden Globes speech, so why did you automatically assume she was talking about you as the one mocking the disabled if you say you've never mocked the disabled?
» How many other people besides that one guy have you criticized by waving your arms around in a spastic, jerky fashion while shaking your head uncontrollably and acting like you have a speech impediment?
» Moving on to Russia’s blackmail dossier on you: should parents watching at home send their children out of the room while we discuss this part?
» When you said “There were attempts to hack the Republican National Committee, but the RNC had strong hacking defenses and the hackers were unsuccessful," a statement contradicted by the Intelligence report, were you lying or just ignorant about what was in the report?
» Heyyyy…how's that Obamacare replacement going?
» Thirty-seven percent approval rating? How bad do you have to suck to get thirty-seven percent during your pre-inauguration honeymoon period?!!
» Your nominee for attorney general confirms that grabbing a woman by the genitals constitutes sexual assault. Since there's tape of you admitting to doing that on multiple occasions, do you plan to pre-pardon yourself like a coward or will you face a court of law like a man?
» Do you believe that the protections in the 28th Amendment are strong enough, or do they need revisiting?
» What's up with your fixation with ball dresses? Why are you claiming they’re sold out in Washington D.C. when they've got a shit-ton of inventory left? Do you know that you are now the only president-elect to ever obsess over ball dresses nine days before the weight of the entire world will be dropped to your shoulders?
» No, really…what the fuck is wrong with you?

what is worse than a notorious liar like HC and all other polititians?

a TRUE (genuin) a... hole (speak moron )
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 15, 2017, 06:40:55 AM
Buddy: If Trump ends up getting impeached during his first term, the result will be Mike Pence becoming President, who is considerably more conservative. I imagine the Republican controlled Congress would prefer dealing with Pence than with Trump. I'd love to see Trump impeached but even if he does, the next four years are going to be very difficult.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 15, 2017, 12:00:44 PM
I agree.  The Republicans are in the catbird seat.  At least for the next two years.  Of course ...if Trump starts a trade war or a real war....then Republican's will pay for that politically.

Republicans want three things:

1)  Repeal of Obamacare
2)  Overturn Rowe v Wade
3)  Control of the Supreme Court

And the will likely get their way.  And yes.....Pence is horrible....no argument from me.  Depending on how things go...the 2018 elections COULD provide the DEMS with some hope.  But the Dems would have to turn a miracle because they have so many Senate seats at risk compared to the Republicans.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 15, 2017, 02:10:30 PM
A little humor to start the day.  For American's like me....try not to think about the fact that the REALITY starting January 20th....will actually be WORSE than the fake Trump:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/15/arts/donald-trump-saturday-night-live.html?_r=0 (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/15/arts/donald-trump-saturday-night-live.html?_r=0)

You have to admit.....Baldwin does a GREAT Trump..... ;D

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 15, 2017, 03:33:14 PM
Next days and weeks:

1)  Expect Trump and his staff do EVERYTHING to keep the topic of conversation OFF of Russia and the FBI.  They want to avoid that at ALL COST.  In the meantime....international sources will continue doing their homework on Trump/Russia....and national sources will continue their work on FBI/Trump issue.

Kellyann Conway will need to be at her lying best....as will the rest of the Trump staff.

2)  Don't expect many press conferences.  There STILL hasn't been what I would call a REAL PRESS CONFERENCE yet.  Again....he wants to control the message as much as possible.

3)  Expect the ridicule of Trump to continue to ratchet up.  When you are SUCH a despicable person as Trump.....and it is engrained in him.....it comes naturally to him.  His staff will no doubt try to get him to do something "good", but it is hard for Trump, and if he does, he will pronounce himself as godlike.  Remember....we're dealing with a sociopath and a pathological liar.  All levels of "normal" are not on the table.

4)  I want to see what the REAL PRESS is going to do over the next few weeks (not FOX and the other FAKE PRESS).  Will they grow a pair or not  How soon....and how large?

If I were a Democrat....I would be "painting" every Republican with the "climate denier" paintbrush AS OFTEN AS I COULD THIS YEAR AND FORWARD.  This is a story that is going to CONTINUE to turn against those who deny FACTS, SCIENCE, and HISTORY.  Support for Trump......as well as support for climate denial....will be two HUGE (UUUUUGGGGGEEEEEE ;)) issues that Democrats should beat like a dirty rug.

It will be interesting to see how large the turnout is for Trump's inauguration....and how large the turnout is going to be on January 21st in the "women's march"....as well as other marches around the country AND the world (there is a march in Scotland that I am aware of).

I still don't think the Trump campaign understands the DEGREE OF HATRED FOR HIM in the US among all those on the left....and great many "in the middle" (like myself).  Already....in more recent Gallup polls.....his favorability numbers are ALREADY DECREASING among INDEPENDENTS.

"Republicans' rating of Trump's transition has remained positive, with 87% approving in the Jan. 4-8 poll, similar to the 86% recorded last month. Very few Democrats approve, which has also been fairly steady, at 13% this month versus 17% in December. Meanwhile, his transition approval among independents has fallen from 46% to 33%."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201833/approval-trump-transition-low-inauguration-nears.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/poll/201833/approval-trump-transition-low-inauguration-nears.aspx)

I expect to see those Independent numbers CONTINUE TO DROP in future weeks/months.

There is NO SAVING A PATHALOGICAL LIAR.  It is when the Republicans start to move against him....maybe in 3 - 9 months from now.....that his Republican approval numbers will also start to drop.

Right now....my eyes are peeled on Marco Rubio over the next couple of weeks....

Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on January 15, 2017, 06:17:17 PM
The Baldwin SNL link didn't work for me - try this one:

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/saturday-night-live-alec-baldwin-donald-trump-golden-shower-pee-pee-party-press-conference-a7527966.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/saturday-night-live-alec-baldwin-donald-trump-golden-shower-pee-pee-party-press-conference-a7527966.html)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 16, 2017, 02:00:03 AM
At least eighteen democratic congressmen will not be attending the inauguration. Baldwin does do a great job impersonating Trump, I bet he never expected the gig to last this long!
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: charles_oil on January 16, 2017, 11:19:01 AM
Yes - those that attack often make their targets better/stronger & more popular. 

I bet "Failing" New York Times and "Fake news" channel CNN  (as well as Charlie Hebdo here in France) have all benefited from the attention as well as SNL's ratings no doubt.
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: budmantis on January 16, 2017, 02:10:14 PM
Here is what President Donald Trump's press conferences may look like:

http://static2.politico.com/dims4/default/564ca3c/2147483647/resize/1160x%3E/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F5e%2Ff2%2Fbd00f5f649ca91aa3d5132d7a994%2Fwuc-1160.jpg (http://static2.politico.com/dims4/default/564ca3c/2147483647/resize/1160x%3E/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F5e%2Ff2%2Fbd00f5f649ca91aa3d5132d7a994%2Fwuc-1160.jpg)
Title: Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
Post by: Buddy on January 16, 2017, 09:11:50 PM
Monica Crowley, the foreign policy adviser tapped for a White House job under President-elect Donald Trump, will relinquish the post, a transition official told Reuters on Monday.

Crowley had been chosen to serve as senior director of strategic communications at the National Security Council. Her appointment had been shadowed by reports of plagiarism in news outlets including CNN and Politico.

Monica said:  “After much reflection I have decided to remain in New York to pursue other opportunities and will not be taking a position in the incoming administration.”

Yes....I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the whole world knows you are just another lying POS (person of service ;)) from FOX News.

Let's see.....what would a brief round up of just RECENT shenanigans look like at FOX:

1)  Monica Crowly:  Caught plagiarizing.  And this started with her Phd paper in college....and has continued until recently.  She was, of course, a prominent FOX News contributor.  She was perfect for FOX:  She wore a short skirt....had no morals.....and cheated like a banchee.  SHE was FOX material. ;)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/16/us/politics/monica-crowley-plagiarism.html?_r=0 (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/16/us/politics/monica-crowley-plagiarism.html?_r=0)

2)  Bill O'Reilly:   Andrea Tantaros from FOX News just settled a lawsuit against FOX News which included charges against Bill O'Reilly.  I guess Bill didn't learn THE FIRST TIME this happened.  No wonder that Donald Trump and O'Reilly are great friends:  "Birds of a feather sexually harass together."  It needs to be pointed out that Donald is good friends with Roger Ailes mentioned below....who also sexually harassed.

Bill O'Reilly also LIED about the Kennedy assassination but has NEVER OWNED UP TO IT.  Sorry Bill....that just won't ever go away.  And Bill also lied about working in a combat zone in Argentina.  He's good at lying...which is why he works at FOX.

https://thinkprogress.org/the-explosive-new-sexual-harassment-allegations-against-bill-oreilly-detailed-532232faca58#.kyaurrvvv (https://thinkprogress.org/the-explosive-new-sexual-harassment-allegations-against-bill-oreilly-detailed-532232faca58#.kyaurrvvv)

3)  Roger Ailes: As everyone knows.....Roger had been sexually harassing for decades....a