Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: solartim27 on January 01, 2017, 09:01:38 PM

Title: The 2017 melting season
Post by: solartim27 on January 01, 2017, 09:01:38 PM
Too soon?   ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: DrTskoul on January 01, 2017, 09:32:26 PM
 :o  8)
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 01, 2017, 09:34:44 PM
 :-X
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on January 01, 2017, 09:36:59 PM
Too late! Couldn't you have opened it 8 hours sooner?  ;) ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: magnamentis on January 02, 2017, 01:07:00 AM
Just in time LOL, the high was at around 1.6 Celsius / 36F

( and there is still water to see for weeks now and most of the time it was much more open water than right now )

Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Istari on January 02, 2017, 02:05:11 AM
Too soon?   ;)
Too real ...
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Tigertown on January 02, 2017, 07:42:57 AM
I don't know if this will do any damage, but it kind of sneaked in over East Siberia.
Probably just a little light snow.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 02, 2017, 10:19:43 PM
Nice to see the Arctic not completely dominated by lows. The North Atlantic cyclone cannon has finally stopped. Lets hope for a polar high dominated rest of the freeze season.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Tigertown on January 02, 2017, 10:34:45 PM
I hate to say it, but I think it just had to re-load.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 02, 2017, 11:16:10 PM
As long as those highs remain over Greenland and Siberia, those lows could go spinning out of the North Atlantic into the Arctic forever.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on January 03, 2017, 12:48:25 PM
There's no sense in posting actual images here, as the melting season hasn't started yet.

Come back in March/April, everyone.  :P ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Iceismylife on January 08, 2017, 09:34:51 PM
Extent down two days in a row go figure.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Adam Ash on January 08, 2017, 10:09:54 PM
Those lows north of Franz Josef Land will sure shove the ice out Fram pretty efficiently. 

I imagine the severely broken ice pack will respond much faster to wind effects than extensive packed-solid ice would - behaving more like debris on the ocean surface than the former comparatively cohesive pack did during winter. 

Thus the effects of prolonged wind on the night-time Arctic will begin to entail conventional open-ocean dynamics arising from fetch length, wind strength and duration resulting in potentially higher waves and thus further stress on and break up of ice floes even under freezing conditions.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Paddy on January 10, 2017, 07:04:57 AM
Extent down two days in a row go figure.

Four days now (although only by a total of about 94000)
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: mmghosh on January 10, 2017, 07:33:28 AM
Indeed.  A century break (even if spread out over a few days)...
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: bbr2314 on January 10, 2017, 07:47:22 AM
00z EURO ups ante and moves 945mb storm up to hr192. Wow.

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011000/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_nhem_9.png)
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: budmantis on January 10, 2017, 08:14:01 AM
Impressive! Have Arctic Ocean low pressure systems ever been known to fall below 945 millibars?
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Tigertown on January 10, 2017, 08:48:40 AM
Look at the one on the other side of Alaska. It's no joke.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: psymmo7 on January 10, 2017, 10:31:54 AM
945 mbar
Storm?
More like a category 3 Hurricane
Here the definition (for non-meteorologists like me) from globalresourcesnews.com
Category 3 - An extensive Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph 178-209 km/hr
Minimum Surface Pressure: 964-945 mbar
Storm Surge: 2.7 - 3.8 m!

Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: peterlvmeng on January 10, 2017, 11:08:38 AM
945 mbar
Storm?
More like a category 3 Hurricane
Here the definition (for non-meteorologists like me) from globalresourcesnews.com
Category 3 - An extensive Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph 178-209 km/hr
Minimum Surface Pressure: 964-945 mbar
Storm Surge: 2.7 - 3.8 m!

extratropical cyclone is quite usual at this minimum surface pressure in high latitude.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Mark Tough on January 10, 2017, 01:19:16 PM
945 mbar
Storm?
More like a category 3 Hurricane
Here the definition (for non-meteorologists like me) from globalresourcesnews.com
Category 3 - An extensive Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph 178-209 km/hr
Minimum Surface Pressure: 964-945 mbar
Storm Surge: 2.7 - 3.8 m!

extratropical cyclone is quite usual at this minimum surface pressure in high latitude.



Well yes peterlvmeng but the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones end in November according to NOAA (well at least in the pre- anthropological days) ;)

It's all new now and this is a mind blowing freeze season/melt season... Crazy really.

Funnily enough I predict a really late Max but not a big one - and then boom to MYI and a clear pole in Aug, the latter definition of which will be up for world wide debate !

No models or referenced science just MYL (Multi Year Lurking) :)
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Buddy on January 10, 2017, 01:39:54 PM
Just what we need....more warmth on the Atlantic side.... :o
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: DrTskoul on January 10, 2017, 01:56:50 PM
Just what we need....more warmth on the Atlantic side.... :o

Once started it is difficult to abruptly stop the trend. The lows will keep coming with their warmth thought the wimter... Until the sun start rising above the northern lands, as to stop it we need a large external forcing.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 10, 2017, 02:04:24 PM
I wonder if you can see a 'cold core' Hurricane?

 I mean if the sea ice is smashed up and the 'relatively' warm, moist, air flowing out of those leads fueling convection in the arctic air above? As the storm grew it would smash more ice /wash up more heat to the surface and so on as it sat over the pole........

A bit 'day after Tomorrow' really but if it's all about the relative sea surface temp to air above a wide enough disrupted ice zone might provide enough heat/moisture to set up unfettered convection?
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: peterlvmeng on January 10, 2017, 03:05:34 PM
945 mbar
Storm?
More like a category 3 Hurricane
Here the definition (for non-meteorologists like me) from globalresourcesnews.com
Category 3 - An extensive Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph 178-209 km/hr
Minimum Surface Pressure: 964-945 mbar
Storm Surge: 2.7 - 3.8 m!

extratropical cyclone is quite usual at this minimum surface pressure in high latitude.



Well yes peterlvmeng but the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones end in November according to NOAA (well at least in the pre- anthropological days) ;)

It's all new now and this is a mind blowing freeze season/melt season... Crazy really.

Funnily enough I predict a really late Max but not a big one - and then boom to MYI and a clear pole in Aug, the latter definition of which will be up for world wide debate !

No models or referenced science just MYL (Multi Year Lurking) :)

Thanks Mark! I remember a strong and large cyclone with minimum pressure lower than 920hpa pervailed the north pacific outside the Bering strait in Jan of 2011. I tend to think it is quite usual inside the arctic.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: peterlvmeng on January 10, 2017, 03:16:08 PM
I wonder if you can see a 'cold core' Hurricane?

 I mean if the sea ice is smashed up and the 'relatively' warm, moist, air flowing out of those leads fueling convection in the arctic air above? As the storm grew it would smash more ice /wash up more heat to the surface and so on as it sat over the pole........

A bit 'day after Tomorrow' really but if it's all about the relative sea surface temp to air above a wide enough disrupted ice zone might provide enough heat/moisture to set up unfettered convection?

You mean the theory which is similar to the mechanism of CISK in the formation of tropical cyclones?
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 10, 2017, 03:25:49 PM
Yup! but with the aid of the planets revolution at its centre linking P.V. to ocean surface?
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: bbr2314 on January 10, 2017, 05:17:31 PM
Yup! but with the aid of the planets revolution at its centre linking P.V. to ocean surface?
I think you are onto something --

It should also be noted while high-latitude cyclones often attain very low pressures, I do not believe that ever happens *this* far north. It has become increasingly common in the southern areas of the Bering & Barents/Kara but in the actual Arctic Ocean we did not see events like ^ in any of the recent summers or winters from what I can recall.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Iceismylife on January 10, 2017, 05:53:07 PM
I wonder if you can see a 'cold core' Hurricane?

 I mean if the sea ice is smashed up and the 'relatively' warm, moist, air flowing out of those leads fueling convection in the arctic air above? As the storm grew it would smash more ice /wash up more heat to the surface and so on as it sat over the pole........

A bit 'day after Tomorrow' really but if it's all about the relative sea surface temp to air above a wide enough disrupted ice zone might provide enough heat/moisture to set up unfettered convection?
I started a thread asking just about this question this fall. Any answers?
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on January 10, 2017, 07:50:22 PM
People, seriously, the melting season has not started. All your comments belong in this thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg98753.html#msg98753). I'm locking this one until March/April.
Title: Re: The 2017 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on February 23, 2017, 09:21:10 AM
Kick.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 23, 2017, 09:32:34 AM
I wondered ,once Mr Hunt had ummed and arred about whether we could be seeing max being reached, how long before we got the thread! :)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: 5to10 on February 23, 2017, 09:46:28 AM
If it goes ice free this year and there's nothing stopping all that water from absorbing heat... what next? This is worrisome.. Is this, for all intents and purposes, the final/one of the final melt seasons?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on February 23, 2017, 09:49:40 AM
Well if re-opening a melting thread in Feb ends up as being the weirdest thing about this melt season then I think we'll get off quite lightly.

Personally I still blame Neven. He took a few weeks off and it's never been the same since.  ::)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: oren on February 23, 2017, 11:38:04 AM
If it goes ice free this year and there's nothing stopping all that water from absorbing heat... what next? This is worrisome.. Is this, for all intents and purposes, the final/one of the final melt seasons?
Please remember that if it does go ice free this year, it will do so with two caveats:
Ice free will not mean totally ice free, not this year. A lot of ice will still remain north of the CAA and Greenland. So 1 million km2 of ice still stops a lot of water from absorbing heat.
In addition, ice free will not mean at peak insolation time, but most probably in early September. At that period it is mostly the heat in the water, and the storms, that finish the job. So the temps in central CAB will not have time to rise very much given the expected season trajectory as I see it.

On the other hand, peripheral CAB-adjacent seas such as the Chukchi, Barents with its nearby CAB sector, and Beaufort (assuming it does open up early and has a total meltout as I expect) could see big temp spikes in late summer, with dire consequences for the CAB ice.

As to whether this is the final melting season, have no fear. Ice in midwinter in the CAB will still freeze, even if very late and much thinner than in the past. Disclosure: some on the forum expect otherwise.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 23, 2017, 01:24:37 PM
I don't think everything has to be in such absolutes. More open water earlier in the season simply means more problems for later this season, which carry over into the freezing season. Those carry over into the following year. Ironically, it is called a snowball effect. At some point the least of our worries will be SIE.

P.S. I guess that I should have posted this here instead of the freezing season thread.
I am not trying to start a conversation about it here, as we have a thread for it, but just so everyone knows; the PV has split and will soon start to weaken. The positive temp. anomalies will start to creep back into the Arctic, just as the forecast shows.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Archimid on February 23, 2017, 02:29:50 PM
I think that 20 years ago the distinction of the melting season and the freezing season was obvious and easy to make out. During the freezing season ice would almost monotonically grow and during the melting season ice will monotonically melt. As the Arctic warms this distinction is becoming less obvious. I think it is almost to a point that a season between the freezing and melting season can be justified.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: gerontocrat on February 23, 2017, 03:17:08 PM
I am having an argument with myself -

It is NOT the melting season, dumbo. Sea ice volume is increasing.
It IS the melting season, you fool. Look at the flood of beaten up ice coming down the Fram, the PV giving up the ghost etc etc etc.

But it is a fruitless argument, since both melting and freezing are happening. Surely what matters are how rapid the periphery will melt (insolation) and the timing and km3 000 of the sea ice volume maximum ? This additional data will inform the debate on what happens next and when.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Archimid on February 23, 2017, 03:43:53 PM

It is NOT the melting season, dumbo. Sea ice volume is increasing.


Great point. Volume is increasing and historically it increases until April. So by volume the melting season starts in April but by extent the melting season starts in early March.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on February 23, 2017, 03:54:28 PM
If it goes ice free this year and there's nothing stopping all that water from absorbing heat... what next? This is worrisome.. Is this, for all intents and purposes, the final/one of the final melt seasons?

please keep in mind that even once it goes ice-free (for me ice-free is around zero and not around 1M km2) that will not get us rid of a melting season because ice free refers to summer and not to "all year round"

if a an all year ice free arctic will ever happen which i doubt for a few centuries or more, discussion will long have moved to Sea Level Rise and other more important things than SIE & SIE.

generally it's always recommended to not overshoot in wording so not to feed the trolls and the deniers with easily deniable "fodder"
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 23, 2017, 05:27:11 PM
Looking at the ice now visible from the MODIS sats you can see just how poor the ice is! Where two leads meet the ice between is shattered rubble, no clean edges of yesteryear this ice just collapses back into the rubble we last saw in Sept. I just do not know how this will act under full sun? I imagine any late formed FY ice 'glue' that holds the pack together would be the first thing to go but how solid is the older ice? How many times have the larger floes already been fragmented and 'glued ' back together?

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-02-23&z=3&v=-1650176,1150848,-1475328,1232512

above are a couple of leads in the west of Beaufort ( toward Bering) showing this rubble zone where they meet/join.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: 5to10 on February 23, 2017, 06:08:21 PM
I don't see how ice can reform anywhere near even the last freeze season once it's open ocean. Too much warming too quickly over the months following, no? I don't understand the physics of it. Shouldn't that be a huge tipping point? How does it jump back out of "essentially ice free" once it gets there?

I really don't understand this, but I'm not educated enough to. Where exactly do the cold temperatures required to refreeze substantially come from after all the ice is gone? Isn't all that ice floating there an inherent necessity to reach and maintain such temperatures? Doesn't it directly influence air/water surface temps and such?

So how does it have any chance of refreezing after essentially total melt, to anywhere near "where it should" (where we desperately want it to)?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: 5to10 on February 23, 2017, 06:12:43 PM
I suppose I'm viewing the ice as sort of a buffer.. I see it as kind of a chicken/egg scenario. To some extent, to put it roughly, it's cold because there's ice, there's ice because it's cold, this system was well maintained for quite some time.

Now what? Is that just a faulty perspective?

I guess a better question would be.. Is the arctic in general warming at the same rate or a faster rate than the global average? If it's warming at a faster rate, isn't that directly correlated to the amount of receding ice (and all the positive feedbacks that creates)? As in, it would be warming a little bit faster because the ice itself helps regulate temperature.. Does the possibility of hitting such low temperatures heavily decrease or disappear with the ice?

Sorry in advance if this is all nonsense or common knowledge. I just can't fathom how, once the ice is more or less gone, it reforms to any great degree.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 23, 2017, 06:28:31 PM
The idea is that it gets so cold in the Arctic when the sun is not up, that nothing else matters. There are starting to appear to be more and more reasons for that not to be true. One thing being the breakdown of the inversion layer.              http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1885.msg104326/topicseen.html#msg104326
Personally, I think there is enough ice now and that it will take long enough to melt this year so as to have one more screwed up freezing season. However, by next year, when the melt out comes so early in the year, the waters will simply absorb too much energy for there to be a freezing season.


There may be a better thread for this line of thought if it continues to be the focus. Better some of us move it than to burden Neven.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: P-maker on February 23, 2017, 08:04:55 PM
Gents,

Allow me to intervene in your discussion. The way to define abrupt climate change is not clear at all, but I sense that you will all appreciate that these statements have been made recently in various threads here:

1)   “1C increase a year for 5 straight years, then it levels off for a few years only to rise later by another series of 1C a year for 5 years for a total of 10C!”
2) “some on the forum expect otherwise.”
3)  “A cliff is the right analogy for a range of reasons. Perhaps most starkly it’s climate change…”
4) ” I guess that I should have posted this here instead of the freezing season thread.”
5) " There may be a better thread for this line of thought..."

Having such difficulties defining whether we are falling off a cliff, whether we are in the freezing or melting season and whether poor freezing may lead to rapid melting, I think it is time to get our act together,

By getting our act together, I mean that we should all accept that we are here trying to make a coherent and collaborative risk assessment regarding the ultimate loss of Arctic sea ice. Should we lose it this autumn, we all know that it could potentially be gone forever. Permanent. Full stop. Lost!

Hence I would suggest a new unifying thread under the label: Towards an ice-free 2017. In case we do not reach this state before Christmas, there will be an opportunity to open up a similar 2018 thread.

Such a thread could unite both the various freezing and melting threads. It could include the somewhat speculative “Ice-free Arctic” thread as well as the “Arctic temperature layers and inversions” thread. Sometimes it helps to bring thoughts together.

I would like to see a slower pace here, deeper thoughts, fewer and better links and more reflection. Keeping up with all the valid contributions to this forum is a nearly 24/7 job. No wonder Neven is getting tired. So are the rest of us trying to catch up on North American and Australian contributions, when we wake up in the morning.

It is time to focus, communicate clearly and not get lost in details.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: 5to10 on February 23, 2017, 08:18:19 PM
Gents,

Allow me to intervene in your discussion. The way to define abrupt climate change is not clear at all, but I sense that you will all appreciate that these statements have been made recently in various threads here:

1)   “1C increase a year for 5 straight years, then it levels off for a few years only to rise later by another series of 1C a year for 5 years for a total of 10C!”
2) “some on the forum expect otherwise.”
3)  “A cliff is the right analogy for a range of reasons. Perhaps most starkly it’s climate change…”
4) ” I guess that I should have posted this here instead of the freezing season thread.”
5) " There may be a better thread for this line of thought..."

Having such difficulties defining whether we are falling off a cliff, whether we are in the freezing or melting season and whether poor freezing may lead to rapid melting, I think it is time to get our act together,

By getting our act together, I mean that we should all accept that we are here trying to make a coherent and collaborative risk assessment regarding the ultimate loss of Arctic sea ice. Should we lose it this autumn, we all know that it could potentially be gone forever. Permanent. Full stop. Lost!

Hence I would suggest a new unifying thread under the label: Towards an ice-free 2017. In case we do not reach this state before Christmas, there will be an opportunity to open up a similar 2018 thread.

Such a thread could unite both the various freezing and melting threads. It could include the somewhat speculative “Ice-free Arctic” thread as well as the “Arctic temperature layers and inversions” thread. Sometimes it helps to bring thoughts together.

I would like to see a slower pace here, deeper thoughts, fewer and better links and more reflection. Keeping up with all the valid contributions to this forum is a nearly 24/7 job. No wonder Neven is getting tired. So are the rest of us trying to catch up on North American and Australian contributions, when we wake up in the morning.

It is time to focus, communicate clearly and not get lost in details.

I agree, sorry for contributing to bogging this thread up but I can't seem to find anywhere existing to discuss these ideas without being offtopic. It seems like you say that the sooner the better.

From a laymans perspective, I feel like there are a lot of great minds on this forum discussing the fine details and a ton of great information is here regarding them, but I have yet to see something like a concerted work towards a more accurate model of what's going on - incorporating as many known feedbacks above a certain threshold of influence as we know of. Surely it would give a better indicator than published models which fail to account for all of them.

Even if you all started ballparking a timeframe together, or what will happen this melt season, how it will re-freeze.. But I think there is a bit of a fear to do that not just because it doesn't precisely follow scientific method (But there are kind of too many variables to do that accurately, so perhaps throwing that out the window to a degree, i.e. submission for peer review, is in order given the circumstances..), but of a gut feeling of how bad the results will be...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 23, 2017, 08:33:08 PM
There is a thread for this topic that has a lot of leeway in it.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1886.msg104343/topicseen.html#msg104343
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: georged on February 24, 2017, 01:11:17 AM
What's the evidence that we've reached an annual peak? This thread seems about three or four weeks too early.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on February 24, 2017, 01:16:00 AM
I don't see how ice can reform anywhere near even the last freeze season once it's open ocean. Too much warming too quickly over the months following, no? I don't understand the physics of it. Shouldn't that be a huge tipping point? How does it jump back out of "essentially ice free" once it gets there?

I really don't understand this, but I'm not educated enough to. Where exactly do the cold temperatures required to refreeze substantially come from after all the ice is gone? Isn't all that ice floating there an inherent necessity to reach and maintain such temperatures? Doesn't it directly influence air/water surface temps and such?

So how does it have any chance of refreezing after essentially total melt, to anywhere near "where it should" (where we desperately want it to)?

in cold winters where temps are between -10 to -20C for a week or two ice forms even very far south.

even though temps are nowadays very high for arctic standards, they are still mostly between -10 and -30C and hence the ocean will freeze over like any other waters, in parts much farther south do, once it's getting long enough cold enough, which both will be the case for many many years to come in the central arctic. keep in mind that we see frozen ocean where the water in summer is often around 5C in places up to 15C like i.e. "ostsee" and still they can freeze over if temps and time span are bouth favourable.

in short, IMO your assumption is wrong, simple as that.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: 5to10 on February 24, 2017, 01:41:27 AM
I don't see how ice can reform anywhere near even the last freeze season once it's open ocean. Too much warming too quickly over the months following, no? I don't understand the physics of it. Shouldn't that be a huge tipping point? How does it jump back out of "essentially ice free" once it gets there?

I really don't understand this, but I'm not educated enough to. Where exactly do the cold temperatures required to refreeze substantially come from after all the ice is gone? Isn't all that ice floating there an inherent necessity to reach and maintain such temperatures? Doesn't it directly influence air/water surface temps and such?

So how does it have any chance of refreezing after essentially total melt, to anywhere near "where it should" (where we desperately want it to)?

in cold winters where temps are between -10 to -20C for a week or two ice forms even very far south.

even though temps are nowadays very high for arctic standards, they are still mostly between -10 and -30C and hence the ocean will freeze over like any other waters, in parts much farther south do, once it's getting long enough cold enough, which both will be the case for many many years to come in the central arctic. keep in mind that we see frozen ocean where the water in summer is often around 5C in places up to 15C like i.e. "ostsee" and still they can freeze over if temps and time span are bouth favourable.

in short, IMO your assumption is wrong, simple as that.

I really hope it is, thank you.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 24, 2017, 01:49:52 AM
What's the evidence that we've reached an annual peak? This thread seems about three or four weeks too early.
Technically, Arctic has no fixed boundary so some could nitpick there's always some melt going on... But yes there's no evidence the ice growth would have stopped already. I'd like to see the 15-day average of Ice Area turn down before saying it's definitely melt season. I'm okay by having this thread open already, but thickness growth continues on several areas still. Heck, even us here at 60.27°N got some 10cm snow just a day ago. Now the snow is about thickest this winter, maybe even 12cm (~ 4 3/4 inches). Official measurement site says 7 but what do they know. Mental.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on February 24, 2017, 06:21:21 AM
 :o too soon  :o
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bairgon on February 24, 2017, 09:00:05 AM
I'm inexperienced at this, as it is my first melt season on the forum. However, I've observed significant drops in extent when the wind is blowing onto the ice with warm air and presumably waves. There is still a notch out of the ice near Newfoundland because of a recent event - see this message:

Nullshcool is showing a low tracking up that eastern Canadian coast from 14th to 16th, with warm onshore winds followed by offshore. Looks like that will damage the ice in the same way as the recent damage to Fram.

Looking at Nullschool there is significant warm air coming up into the Bering Strait on Saturday; followed by consistent warm onshore winds on the eastern Canadian coast on Sunday through Monday.

My guess is that these will cause extent to drop, perhaps firming up the maximum.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Darvince on February 24, 2017, 09:23:56 AM
is often around 5C in places up to 15C like i.e. "ostsee" and still they can freeze over if temps and time span are bouth favourable.
Baltic Sea in English. ;)

And in Liaoning Bay in China, which reaches temperatures warm enough for tropical cyclones in the heat of the summer, 26C, there are small amounts of gray ice this time of year.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Williams on February 24, 2017, 04:51:20 PM
Rather than speculating on whether it has or has not started, maybe we should be thinking about what tools people with various levels can use to monitor the (coming) season.

I suggest for people who are fairly new to watching the seasons world-wide, or who like me simply need an occasional reminder, that a map of day and night such as this can be useful:

https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html (https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on February 25, 2017, 01:24:24 AM
is often around 5C in places up to 15C like i.e. "ostsee" and still they can freeze over if temps and time span are bouth favourable.
Baltic Sea in English. ;)

And in Liaoning Bay in China, which reaches temperatures warm enough for tropical cyclones in the heat of the summer, 26C, there are small amounts of gray ice this time of year.

baltic, right, thanks, i should have looked it up but was a bit in a hurry :-) nice that you jumped in

cheers
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 25, 2017, 06:04:28 AM
Just noticed extent, both NSIDC and JAXA, have gone down. But for anyone who had any doubt about melt season beginning, check out the volume drop. ;)
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 25, 2017, 06:14:03 AM
Just noticed extent, both NSIDC and JAXA, have gone down. But for anyone who had any doubt about melt season beginning, check out the volume drop. ;)
(http://)
Oh, that looks like an adjustment made by Pruitt :D .


Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Dave C on February 25, 2017, 09:05:28 AM
Just noticed extent, both NSIDC and JAXA, have gone down. But for anyone who had any doubt about melt season beginning, check out the volume drop. ;)

I've always thought it is funny that groups would post these results.
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on February 25, 2017, 01:09:04 PM
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

Yes, it would be. We want near-real time numbers, and we all understand that sometimes things go wrong with automated processes. That's why we - unlike climate risk deniers - don't make a fuss about it when it happens.

BTW, I'm visiting relatives in the Netherlands this week, so won't be able to perform near-real time moderating activities (but I try to read up in the mornings and evenings). Just so you know.

And for me the melting season officially starts when (JAXA) extent has reached its maximum. That to me is sort of a tradition. Even though volume will continue to grow for a few weeks longer. But it's not that important.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bairgon on February 25, 2017, 01:42:40 PM
The CAA garlic press has been mentioned a few times.

I've been watching the live MODIS true colour images of the Barrow Strait past Resolute, Canada (with Griffith Island - I was born in Griffith, NSW). The ice has been slumping regularly - see gif below which is from 19th to 24th Feb.

I checked back through previous years and there is nothing that matches this so early in the season.

The most recent date in the gif can be seen at https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-02-24&z=3&v=-1660863.4345131656,-1463410.123253129,-677823.4345131656,-959090.123253129&ab=on&as=2017-02-19&ae=2017-02-24&av=1&al=false (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-02-24&z=3&v=-1660863.4345131656,-1463410.123253129,-677823.4345131656,-959090.123253129&ab=on&as=2017-02-19&ae=2017-02-24&av=1&al=false)

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 25, 2017, 04:09:35 PM
It is fixed by the way, in case anyone didn't catch the  ;) to start with, which was supposed to be a hint that it was not real. As if.    P.S. NSIDC extent really dropped again, though.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on February 25, 2017, 04:35:33 PM
I was looking at world view last night and the weakness of the ice is staggering, just staggering. Ive been studying the arctic since 2005 and what I am seeing at the moment is ice Ive seen previously in June. This to me looks a year that could see a very very small minimum but ill pass judgement later in the year. Maybe theres going to be a miracle or some 50bn sea ice generators
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: peterlvmeng on February 25, 2017, 05:17:54 PM
It is fixed by the way, in case anyone didn't catch the  ;) to start with, which was supposed to be a hint that it was not real. As if.    P.S. NSIDC extent really dropped again, though.
(http://)

Maybe the thickness is increasing dramatically.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on February 25, 2017, 06:37:16 PM
I was looking at world view last night and the weakness of the ice is staggering, just staggering. Ive been studying the arctic since 2005 and what I am seeing at the moment is ice Ive seen previously in June. This to me looks a year that could see a very very small minimum but ill pass judgement later in the year. Maybe theres going to be a miracle or some 50bn sea ice generators

Hycom confirms, it's staggering. Needs to be clicked. Compared Feb 24 this year vs 2016. Look at Laptev Sea, ESS and Beaufort. And all the thickest ice near Fram Strait for export. Also positive anomalies (+1.1 - +2.0 C) for Arctic Feb 26 - Mar 4 (Climate Reanalyzer). Images from https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 25, 2017, 07:32:38 PM
That was a nice little run we had there for a few days, but now reality has to set back in.
 Feb. 20th comp'ed to Feb. 24th
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pavel on February 25, 2017, 09:01:38 PM
Maybe I'm once again impatient, but the weather conditions in the Barents and the Sea of Okhotsk in several days may cause SIE to drop significantly in those seas. The SoO is located between 44 and 61 latitudes, so the insolation is high already especially in the south. On the other hand SIE can rise in the Barents sea. Anyway SIE is near it's annual maximum and it's possible the melting season have already started in terms of SIE
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 25, 2017, 09:34:23 PM
Just noticed extent, both NSIDC and JAXA, have gone down. But for anyone who had any doubt about melt season beginning, check out the volume drop. ;)

I've always thought it is funny that groups would post these results.
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

And miss the opportunity to lighten the mood of the community in the midst of this Greek Tragedy?  ???
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 25, 2017, 09:36:43 PM
I was looking at world view last night and the weakness of the ice is staggering, just staggering. Ive been studying the arctic since 2005 and what I am seeing at the moment is ice Ive seen previously in June. This to me looks a year that could see a very very small minimum but ill pass judgement later in the year. Maybe theres going to be a miracle or some 50bn sea ice generators

Hycom confirms, it's staggering. Needs to be clicked. Compared Feb 24 this year vs 2016. Look at Laptev Sea, ESS and Beaufort. And all the thickest ice near Fram Strait for export. Also positive anomalies (+1.1 - +2.0 C) for Arctic Feb 26 - Mar 4 (Climate Reanalyzer). Images from https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

And we must keep in mind that, despite all of the very thick ice in the Beaufort last year, it melted out completely. This melt season will be riveting.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 26, 2017, 08:40:13 AM
Very strong and persistent winds in and around the Arctic for the next several days. With much of the ice so thin, the drifting and movement will continue to cause melt. The air and winds are very cold, but this just doesn't help much when warm waters keep getting stirred up.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 26, 2017, 10:29:48 AM
A very important question is how thick the snow cover is right now onto the ice after all those bomb cyclones during most of this freezing season?

From this article at InsideClimatenews.org that looks at the sea ice paradox wrt to ice growth around Antarctica and melting Arctic. In the article there is an important statement which might have big implications for the upcoming melting season:

"Additionally, the snowpack on top of the Antarctic ice is much thicker than in the Arctic, Nicolaus said. That means there is less formation of dark-colored surface melt ponds, which amplify the melting and warming in the Arctic, he explained."

Now, is the snow cover thicker compared to 2013 and other years?

Read more at https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31052016/why-antarctica-sea-ice-level-growing-while-arctic-glaciers-melts-climate-change-global-warming (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31052016/why-antarctica-sea-ice-level-growing-while-arctic-glaciers-melts-climate-change-global-warming)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Dave C on February 26, 2017, 02:53:28 PM
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

Yes, it would be. We want near-real time numbers, and we all understand that sometimes things go wrong with automated processes. That's why we - unlike climate risk deniers - don't make a fuss about it when it happens.


I would strongly disagree. Credibility is extremely important if you are producing information. Humans tend to think in heuristics, rather than extensively verify every piece of data. If someone produces obviously wrong data it's reasonable to be concerned that they are making other more subtle errors that are not being corrected. I think trust in your numbers is much more important than the convenience of real time data.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on February 26, 2017, 04:36:42 PM
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

Yes, it would be. We want near-real time numbers, and we all understand that sometimes things go wrong with automated processes. That's why we - unlike climate risk deniers - don't make a fuss about it when it happens.


I would strongly disagree. Credibility is extremely important if you are producing information. Humans tend to think in heuristics, rather than extensively verify every piece of data. If someone produces obviously wrong data it's reasonable to be concerned that they are making other more subtle errors that are not being corrected. I think trust in your numbers is much more important than the convenience of real time data.

thanks, has been my point for long, just that quite often someone feels offended due to connections to specific work or having friends that are related and as a rusult feedback can be quite harsh out of the blue at times LOL.

anyways i'm very glad that others as well are aware that no information at all, is better than wrong information while of course in this clear case one could say it's obvious, but believe me, i have been reading deniers comments on obvious flukes that made me speechless, hence we are back to rule number one, the truth and nothing but the truth to achieve and keep the highest possible level of credibility. ultimately deniers re-plenish their arsenal from mistakes of those in defense of the just cause.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: dnem on February 26, 2017, 07:28:27 PM
C'mon folks, TT's post was just a little joke complete with a wink emoji.  Let's not get too serious here (the situation itself is serious enough!).
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on February 26, 2017, 10:12:10 PM
C'mon folks, TT's post was just a little joke complete with a wink emoji.  Let's not get too serious here (the situation itself is serious enough!).

no problem while at times a joke can trigger a serious discussion and the subject is very very important if we want to get an impact with our contributions and for example with this forum, hence i can see nothing wrong with the discussion except that it would belong to another thread should it continue.

i do not disagree but why do you care so much about that little exchange, frankly speaking it was positive and fun and not the fun is gone for no good reason. i think the remark was not helpful but that's my opinion and no offense meant.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 27, 2017, 06:49:24 AM
Undeniable melting in the Bering.
24th thru 26th
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: JayW on February 27, 2017, 07:35:27 AM
Feb 23-26. VIIRS I05 band from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks

Hints of the Beaufort gyre?  I find it difficult to believe we see anything analogous to the "big block" this year.


http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu (http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 27, 2017, 10:02:30 PM
NSIDC SIE  106 km2

2017,    02,  16,     14.301

2017,    02,  26,     14.325

10 days net increase approx. 24k
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 28, 2017, 05:43:27 AM
Another JAXA SIE drop today. Volume is currently stymied, the PV is split and weakened, and the temp. anomalies are slowly returning to the Arctic. Here is a look at SMOS.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on February 28, 2017, 06:30:43 AM
Another JAXA SIE drop today. Volume is currently stymied, the PV is split and weakened, and the temp. anomalies are slowly returning to the Arctic. ...
We don't need the anomalies any more.  We are less than 4 weeks from the equinox.  Insolation in the peripheral seas pretty much is putting paid on the Max, and is already starting to shift the dynamic away from creating more ice.  Get ready for the drop.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on February 28, 2017, 06:33:00 AM
Another JAXA SIE drop today. Volume is currently stymied, the PV is split and weakened, and the temp. anomalies are slowly returning to the Arctic. ...
We don't need the anomalies any more.  We are less than 4 weeks from the equinox.  Insolation in the peripheral seas pretty much is putting paid on the Max, and is already starting to shift the dynamic away from creating more ice.  Get ready for the drop.
Good point.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Glenn Tamblyn on February 28, 2017, 07:15:45 AM
Particularly with those low thicknesses in the Sea of Okhostk. Mucho Biggo extent decline ready to go there to kick off the season.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: wallen on February 28, 2017, 09:09:21 AM
With the coming melt season, I was wondering what effect Melt Ponds will have this year, or is the ice condition already so poor, that Melt Ponds will not be required for any pre-conditioning .
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 28, 2017, 09:46:54 AM
Hi wallen!

I think the glory days of the melt pond are lost? The 'crackopalypse years' lead to a reduction in floe size so the large expanses of melt water covering sections of the pack just cannot form up any more without draining due to leads?

The new measure should be those lead densities? Leads also darken the overall surface. If the floe is small enough then side melt becomes a major cause of melt out so many sub 100m floes means early and rapid melt?

I'm sure other think differently though! :)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 28, 2017, 10:25:13 AM
The Barrow Strait looking somewhat the worse for wear:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA)

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 28, 2017, 03:51:54 PM
I think the Northwest Passage will open very early this year, perhaps the earliest on record. The only possible problem could be the reemergence of the "Garlic Press" with thick MYI traversing the CAA and blocking the passage.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bairgon on February 28, 2017, 05:04:28 PM
thick MYI

Precious little of that around...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on February 28, 2017, 08:00:37 PM
With the coming melt season, I was wondering what effect Melt Ponds will have this year, or is the ice condition already so poor, that Melt Ponds will not be required for any pre-conditioning .

i think there will be only few ponds because the smallest poodle immediatly will break through to the ocean surface, partly kidding but i expect at least a bit of this.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 28, 2017, 10:35:45 PM
thick MYI

Precious little of that around...

Much of it moved into the CAA last year. You can find it in channels between the islands.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 01, 2017, 04:29:26 AM
A revisit of the concentration, with the image for the 28th double-timed.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 01, 2017, 04:45:03 AM
Temp. anomalies may not be needed to have melting anymore at this point in the year, but we have them nonetheless. Just a visual inspection of the concentration that I posted above shows how the ice is going down again. I am afraid of what will happen with some real heat and insolation later this year. Talk about preconditioning.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 01, 2017, 11:05:14 AM
Temp. anomalies may not be needed to have melting anymore at this point in the year, but we have them nonetheless. Just a visual inspection of the concentration that I posted above shows how the ice is going down again. I am afraid of what will happen with some real heat and insolation later this year. Talk about preconditioning.
(http://)

ESS area seems to be much warmer than average Mar 3 - Mar 9.
On the other hand extremely cold over Alaska and Northern Canada.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Red on March 01, 2017, 04:21:46 PM
Looking at the satellite shot for the 27th there is open water forming on the west coast of Ungava Bay and along the northeast coast of Labrador. There seems to be lots of room for compaction in the Davis Strait.
 https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden)&t=2017-02-27&z=3&v=-1459701.7703771119,-3268899.3955504056,-927733.7703771119,-2925859.3955504056
 Then when looking at the movement of the ice off of Labrador, Nullschool is showing sea surface temps just east of the ice pack at 4c. Is this enough to keep the the ice flowing freely out of the stait so as to keep the garlic press exit from clogging? 4c would probably work some magic on the slushy that is the ice pack?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-67.77,58.16,2849/loc=-57.803,58.520
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bairgon on March 01, 2017, 05:34:08 PM
Looking at the satellite shot for the 27th there is open water forming on the west coast of Ungava Bay and along the northeast coast of Labrador.

Looking further south from your link, you can see how the ice has been separated from the land and pushed south (look for features that match). There was strong off-shore winds in that period.

However, the winds are forecast to strengthen to on-shore with a significant northerly component, and temperatures increasing, so I expect the ice to be decimated in this area.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Cate on March 01, 2017, 09:07:11 PM
And farther south again, on the NE coast of Newfoundland, the Canadian Ice Service chart for Feb 28 shows some lessening of pressure, with concentration close to shore dropping to 7-8/10, down from 9-10/10 last week. Most likely this is a function of offshore winds, as bairgon has noted. Bonavista Bay has also cleared out---for now, of course. A change in wind can bring it all back in. The ice in this area--the traditional "front" for the Newfoundland seal hunt----is almost entirely wind-dependent. Melt-out is a matter of when, not if. This is the time of year when we Newfoundlanders start to pray for sustained sou'westerlies, to blow the damned stuff back out into the Labrador Current and on south to warmer waters.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 03, 2017, 07:42:03 PM
I was looking recent Climate Reanalyzer, it's going to be warm Mar 8 - Mar 11, in some places anomalies +20 - +30 ˚C (ESS, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay). Fram export will be active again Mar 5 - Mar 7 according to Hycom.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 04, 2017, 06:59:06 PM
Latest Hycom shows Fram export accelerating Mar 8 - Mar 11. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 04, 2017, 11:05:49 PM
Beaufort has thickened a bit over the past few weeks.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 05, 2017, 01:24:09 AM
Beaufort has thickened a bit over the past few weeks.
Hard for it not to, as a lot of the ice was well under 1.5M...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Archimid on March 05, 2017, 05:55:45 PM
Using nullschool, the following images are the Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for 5 March 2015,2016,2017

I think the North Pacific is much cooler this year and that might favor a milder melting season.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 05, 2017, 07:38:39 PM
As A-Team is missing, I try to operate with gif's. Latest Hycom forecast Mar 8 - Mar 12. Notice Fram export, Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 05, 2017, 08:03:44 PM
Using nullschool, the following images are the Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for 5 March 2015,2016,2017

I think the North Pacific is much cooler this year and that might favor a milder melting season.
You might want to look at a site that gives temps. just below the surface. Storms tend to cool the surface fairly quick.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 05, 2017, 08:37:42 PM
As A-Team is missing, I try to operate with gif's. Latest Hycom forecast Mar 8 - Mar 12. Notice Fram export, Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Notice also, not a lot of thickening, anywhere.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Sterks on March 06, 2017, 05:09:25 PM
This image pertains to the melting season thread. Day 64 2017 snow cover anomaly.
Regardless of the massive snowing this winter, there is an early beginning of spring in many locations of the northern hemisphere as last year. Less snow means more insolation in areas where it already does matters. It's still early but everything counts. An equivalent of FDD might be devised for land.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: wili on March 06, 2017, 10:28:54 PM
Sorry if this has already been posted or if it's in the wrong thread here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/06/arctic-sea-ice-disappear-world-achieves-climate-target (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/06/arctic-sea-ice-disappear-world-achieves-climate-target)

Arctic sea ice could disappear even if world achieves climate target:

Goal of limiting rise in average global temperatures to below 2C may not prevent ice-free Arctic, scientists warn


Arctic sea ice could vanish in summers this century even if governments achieve a core target for limiting global warming set by almost 200 countries, scientists have said.

The ice has been shrinking steadily in recent decades, damaging the livelihoods of indigenous people and wildlife, such as polar bears, while opening the region to more shipping and oil and gas exploration.

Under the 2015 Paris agreement, governments set a goal of limiting the rise in average world temperatures to well below 2C (35.6F) above pre-industrial times, with an aspiration of just 1.5C.

“The 2C target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic,” James Screen and Daniel Williamson of Exeter University wrote in the Nature Climate Change journal after a review of ice projections.

A 2C rise would still mean a 39% risk that ice would disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summers, they said.

Ice was virtually certain to survive, however, with just 1.5C of warming.

Pretty impossible to stay within 1.5 C, now, right. And really not realistic that we could stay with in 2 C anymore for that matter. So...that's that.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: wehappyfew on March 06, 2017, 10:57:48 PM
Here's a chart I made. I like it when R^2 is above .90... don't like the implications for ice melting.

It's the annual average of temperatures north of the Arctic circle, compared to the annual average sea ice. Temps from NCEP reanalysis, ice area from NSIDC. Both temps and ice area are shown as their anomalies from the 1979 to 2016 average.

2017 has only two months data, it is the last point to the far lower right, slightly above the trend line.

To get ice free summers... considering that summers have been declining faster than winter... I'm going to guess about 3-4 more degreesC of Arctic warming will give us ice free Aug, Sept and Oct.

With Arctic amplification running about 6 times the global average (using the same NCEP reanalysis data), we need only about 0.5 to 0.7C more globally averaged warming to get us there. Maybe 20 years at the current accelerating rate.

The first ice free minimum would happen much earlier... and that's important as a warning signal... but I see albedo feedback as the real killer here. The regular appearance of blue Arctic Ocean in August when the sun is still shining 24 hours per day... that's going to be awful to see.

(http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/597673-1.gif)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Williams on March 06, 2017, 11:10:25 PM
Sorry if this has already been posted or if it's in the wrong thread here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/06/arctic-sea-ice-disappear-world-achieves-climate-target (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/06/arctic-sea-ice-disappear-world-achieves-climate-target)

Arctic sea ice could disappear even if world achieves climate target:

Goal of limiting rise in average global temperatures to below 2C may not prevent ice-free Arctic, scientists warn


Arctic sea ice could vanish in summers this century even if governments achieve a core target for limiting global warming set by almost 200 countries, scientists have said.

The ice has been shrinking steadily in recent decades, damaging the livelihoods of indigenous people and wildlife, such as polar bears, while opening the region to more shipping and oil and gas exploration.

Under the 2015 Paris agreement, governments set a goal of limiting the rise in average world temperatures to well below 2C (35.6F) above pre-industrial times, with an aspiration of just 1.5C.

“The 2C target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic,” James Screen and Daniel Williamson of Exeter University wrote in the Nature Climate Change journal after a review of ice projections.

A 2C rise would still mean a 39% risk that ice would disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summers, they said.

Ice was virtually certain to survive, however, with just 1.5C of warming.

Pretty impossible to stay within 1.5 C, now, right. And really not realistic that we could stay with in 2 C anymore for that matter. So...that's that.
I am of the "the models are all bogus" mindset.  Give me something that explains what is happening now in term of the Industrial Revolution 200 years ago and I might find some value in the argument.  Until then, let's just stick with what is actually happening.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: wili on March 07, 2017, 04:22:40 AM
Well, if we are going to make any claims that GW is going to be a major hazard to human and other life, we need to either model it or point to paleo-records.

Meanwhile, robertscribbler is chiming in on what is happening (or about to) in the Chukchi:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/06/warm-winds-take-aim-at-chukchi-as-arctic-sea-ice-volume-hits-record-lows-during-february-of-2017/

Warm Winds Take Aim at Chukchi as Arctic Sea Ice Volume Hits Record Lows
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 07, 2017, 04:35:04 AM
Well, if we are going to make any claims that GW is going to be a major hazard to human and other life, we need to either model it or point to paleo-records.

Meanwhile, robertscribbler is chiming in on what is happening (or about to) in the Chukchi:

[url]https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/06/warm-winds-take-aim-at-chukchi-as-arctic-sea-ice-volume-hits-record-lows-during-february-of-2017/[/url] ([url]https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/06/warm-winds-take-aim-at-chukchi-as-arctic-sea-ice-volume-hits-record-lows-during-february-of-2017/[/url])

Warm Winds Take Aim at Chukchi as Arctic Sea Ice Volume Hits Record Lows

Time to officially shift my focus from "Refreeze" to "Melt" I think.

Scribbler's got good support from the GFS.  I've been watching the ensemble here, tracking 2M anomalies.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017030618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=788 (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017030618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=788)

While we can only be reasonably assured of stuff no more than 4-5 days out, what the implication of the later stages of the model suggest is a very high level of instablility in circulation, with major potential intrusions of heat from lower latitudes.

It appears the CAA and nearby CAB will remain colder, but even short term, it looks like these areas - Okhotsk, Barents, Western Kara, Bering, Chukchi and Hudson's Bay - are going to get hammered seriously by heat.  If the long term trend holds, it will continue.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 07, 2017, 06:09:28 AM
Focusing on two areas. The Bering Strait and Sea, and the FJL and Svalbard Region.
March 5th vs. 6th
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: nicibiene on March 07, 2017, 08:08:50 AM
Sorry for being off topic  (a little) but do you already know this website of Ole Humlum? http://www.climate4you.com (http://www.climate4you.com) - maybe there is a thread for such links too?

It is full of VERY impressive graphics (includes all of shown here, compressed in impressive annual comparsion modes) and actual datas. A real treasure I will dive in today... 😊
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: folke_kelm on March 07, 2017, 08:32:28 AM
Nicibiene,

You have to be very carefull with Ole Humlum. He is a rather scary denier, publishing papers where he is calculating out the trend and blaming all remaining changes to climate to just...natural variations, claiming in public that he did show that climate change is fully natural. Some of his papers are totally bullshit, but here in Scandinavia he is the deniers hero, like Roy Spencer in US.

regards
Folke
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 07, 2017, 09:46:23 AM
I haven't acquainted myself to Ole Humlum' stuff. Presuming he's one of the great number of people who like to think most of everything humans do is 'natural' so he'd be discounting quite a bit of human influence. "I just happened to find this petrol station and my credit card fits in the slot and I get this stuff that burns so brightly i'm blinded by it"-type of denier, possibly. Has someone classified deniers into sub-types? Could be an interesting (thpugh completely futile) intellectual exercise?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: gerontocrat on March 07, 2017, 11:02:42 AM
Just thought all need to know that the Trumpocracy's first budget proposes a 26 percent cut in the NOAA budget (effective Oct 1).

War on climate science officially declared ?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: oren on March 07, 2017, 12:53:43 PM
Sorry for being off topic  (a little) but do you already know this website of Ole Humlum? [url]http://www.climate4you.com[/url] ([url]http://www.climate4you.com[/url]) - maybe there is a thread for such links too?

It is full of VERY impressive graphics (includes all of shown here, compressed in impressive annual comparsion modes) and actual datas. A real treasure I will dive in today... 😊

A quick look at the site shows it's definitely denier stuff. All charts somehow twisted.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Oyvind Johnsen on March 07, 2017, 12:57:32 PM
Re Ole Humlum`s site: As a site, it is designed and written to support his denialist agenda. However, some of the graphs on the site are interesting enough, and he links to the actual, scientific sources. His comparisons of temperature data in the satellite period are worth a look. His labelling of satellite data as "quality class A", Hadcrut as "class B", and NOAA/GISS as "class C" is of course just ridiculous, but the graphs show the real data, anyway.
So deniers, of the sort who will suspect any graph presented to them by a "warmist", may discover that Earth is actually warming. (Perhaps a bit optimistic...) :)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: gerontocrat on March 07, 2017, 01:52:57 PM
Well, if we are going to make any claims that GW is going to be a major hazard to human and other life, we need to either model it or point to paleo-records.

Meanwhile, robertscribbler is chiming in on what is happening (or about to) in the Chukchi:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/06/warm-winds-take-aim-at-chukchi-as-arctic-sea-ice-volume-hits-record-lows-during-february-of-2017/

Warm Winds Take Aim at Chukchi as Arctic Sea Ice Volume Hits Record Lows

No need to model or look at paleohistory for effect of GW on animals. GOTO sciencerecorder.com/news/2017/02/14/effectofclimatechangeonanimals. Or for a single example google "puffins in trouble".

It is not anymore so much about what will happen but what is happening.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 07, 2017, 02:03:49 PM
The last six or seven comments don't belong in this thread. If there is no other place for a subject, try  the Open thread. PLEASE!

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 08, 2017, 12:28:37 AM
The last six or seven comments don't belong in this thread. If there is no other place for a subject, try  the Open thread. PLEASE!

[url]http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost[/url]


Seconded. This thread is to discuss the 2017 melt season which, given the current state of the ice, will be a barn burner. Let's stay on topic.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: ipexnet on March 08, 2017, 02:51:25 AM
The only significant (new) cracks I can see (beyond what has been seen in prior years, and beyond the laptev sea disintegration), is in the east siberian. The winds haven't been favorable for excessive cracks in the this area either, so looks to be just a factor of thin ice. Again, I really only go by the MODIS visual records as a picture is worth a thousand words. Generally the main pack looks in much better shape and must be liking the recent cold weather. Its the fringes that look terrible.  Still in awe at the data and scientific centric view of many contributors. The data (very weak) doesn't quite align with the visuals (even weaker) in my mind. So curious to see what the next few weeks provides. Any hint of winds from the beaufort or east siberian coupled with even normal heat might drastically change the picture 
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 08, 2017, 06:10:10 AM
March 5th 6th 7th from left to right. By warm water or whatever means, there is melting in the Bering.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on March 08, 2017, 10:49:24 AM
And March 8th to 11th are only going to exacerbate the situation further going by climate reanalyzer forecast.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: rboyd on March 08, 2017, 10:38:44 PM
March 11th looks really bad for the ice.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 08, 2017, 11:20:44 PM
Yikes.  The cold has taken a vacation down south...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 08, 2017, 11:48:11 PM
March 11th looks really bad for the ice.
That's bloody astonishing and fairly high confidence as it is less than three days out.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 09, 2017, 08:40:04 AM
 A look at one concentration forecast. I tend not to believe this play by play, but just to the effect that we can start to expect the condition of the ice to start going down overall.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE          March 9th-18th
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Adam Ash on March 09, 2017, 10:10:42 AM
When you look at those concentration maps you get the impression that there is a lot of pretty solid ice in there. 

A remarkable comment by a traveller on an icebreaker in 2009 (way back then, even) found that while the normal ice condition maps indicated lots of multi-year ice, in fact the ice breaker which would normally cruise at 13.5 knots in open water, was able to sustain 13.0 knots through that multi-year ice which turned out to be very broken ice offering virtually no resistance to sailing.  I doubt if things have improved since then.

Seven surprising results from the reduction of Arctic Sea ice cover | David Barber | TEDxUManitoba
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofaoiHYKtlc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofaoiHYKtlc)

About 7:40 into the video.

So while the satellites may say its solid-ish, it is in fact pretty mushy and hence very prone to physical and thermal damage.  This confirms our impressions of the overall pack over the last season.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on March 09, 2017, 11:40:34 AM
Russian researcher, Irina Orlova's, FB post, setting up camp in at the N. Pole for 2017.
Click 'not now", if it asks you to sign up for FB, and click "See Translation" to get the general idea:
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1237228086346338&id=100001774757853 (https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1237228086346338&id=100001774757853)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 09, 2017, 04:39:17 PM
Adam Ash
So while the satellites may say its solid-ish, it is in fact pretty mushy and hence very prone to physical and thermal damage.  This confirms our impressions of the overall pack over the last season.
No doubt, close ups would show that. These are the best we can do for now.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 09, 2017, 05:11:18 PM
Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 09, 2017, 06:36:17 PM
Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

today?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 09, 2017, 07:25:59 PM
Recent winds have made ice edge quite fragile east of Svalbard and west of FJL.
Saturday morning 03:00 UTC is interesting - wind 28 m/s and exactly where ice is most fragile.
Images from earth.nullschool.net and https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 09, 2017, 07:35:26 PM
Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

today?

Cute....
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on March 09, 2017, 07:40:53 PM
Both the pacific and the Atlantic look anomalously warm over the next week. That being said, both the Gulf of St Lawrence and the Eastern Bering Sea look to be rather cold. It doesn't matter for extent if the Arctic is +20 Centigrade above average, it is still below freezing. I'll state the obvious: if the areas where ice can form are cold extent will increase despite the anomalously warm temperatures. It's why SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss. 
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: gerontocrat on March 09, 2017, 08:00:24 PM
Dear Rox the Geologist,
You write that SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss.
In the short term I agree. For those who are dedicated to the subject I also agree.

But as a measure for showing visually to the general public where we are it is one of the best we have, even though it hides the much higher loss of volume.
And it is sea ice extent that determines insolation.

Horses for courses ?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 09, 2017, 08:08:21 PM
Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

Strongly agree!
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 09, 2017, 08:45:28 PM
Here is the latest HYCOM ice thickness forecast Mar 9 - Mar 16. Still losing precious green and yellow (3 - 4 m thick ice) to Fram Strait. Also northern part of Hudson Bay is interesting because of strong winds.
Images https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on March 09, 2017, 09:19:56 PM
Dear Rox the Geologist,
You write that SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss.
In the short term I agree. For those who are dedicated to the subject I also agree.

But as a measure for showing visually to the general public where we are it is one of the best we have, even though it hides the much higher loss of volume.
And it is sea ice extent that determines insolation.

Horses for courses ?

Yes, I agree, however it's also very easy for deniers to use SIE to obfuscate the true measure of losses as increases in extent happen, even if its just a thin skin of ice.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 09, 2017, 09:54:09 PM
Also northern part of Hudson Bay is interesting because of strong winds.

The ice on the Bay has been pretty thin all season.  Most striking to me though is the Foxe Basin, which typically gets quite thick, and previously would retain ice year over year.  It seems to me it may melt out early this year.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 09, 2017, 10:00:50 PM
Russian researcher, Irina Orlova's, FB post, setting up camp in at the N. Pole for 2017.


Thanks Thomas. See the traditional dedicated thread:

"Barneo 2017 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905)"
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 09, 2017, 10:00:55 PM
Here is the latest HYCOM ice thickness forecast Mar 9 - Mar 16. Still losing precious green and yellow (3 - 4 m thick ice) to Fram Strait. Also northern part of Hudson Bay is interesting because of strong winds.
For contrast, I think it is worthwhile to remind everyone what HYCOM thought the ice looked like last year at this time:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016030718_2016030800_041_arcticictn.001.gif
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 09, 2017, 10:16:17 PM
Here is the latest HYCOM ice thickness forecast Mar 9 - Mar 16. Still losing precious green and yellow (3 - 4 m thick ice) to Fram Strait. Also northern part of Hudson Bay is interesting because of strong winds.
For contrast, I think it is worthwhile to remind everyone what HYCOM thought the ice looked like last year at this time:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016030718_2016030800_041_arcticictn.001.gif

With the caveat that year over year color comparison with Hycom are to be taken with a grain of salt, YIKEs!
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 09, 2017, 10:18:45 PM
With the caveat that year over year color comparison with Hycom are to be taken with a grain of salt, YIKEs!
Try this on for size.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: oren on March 09, 2017, 11:03:49 PM
It doesn't matter for extent if the Arctic is +20 Centigrade above average, it is still below freezing. I'll state the obvious: if the areas where ice can form are cold extent will increase despite the anomalously warm temperatures. It's why SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss.
Obvious but still worth repeating, especially if dispersing winds support the cold temps.
And as we are discussing the Arctic becoming seasonally ice-free, max winter extent remains almost the same while min summer extent drops sharply. So in summer SIE is a good measure. In winter probably the best measure is PIOMAS volume.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 10, 2017, 05:16:14 PM
Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

today?

Cute....

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v2.1.csv

2017,    03,  05,     14.447
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 10, 2017, 05:56:01 PM
That does appear to be the max. and it does seem that melt momentum is building. Welcome to the 2017 melting season. Have your ticket stubs ready.
March 11th
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 10, 2017, 06:59:37 PM
Love Song for the Holocene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OomaNxkY-KY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OomaNxkY-KY)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: pccp82 on March 10, 2017, 07:07:43 PM
i have only been looking at this stuff for about 5 years now.....but the early heat in Siberia is impressive and is something I will be keeping an eye on.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 10, 2017, 08:21:09 PM
If the current forecast runs from ECMWF and GFS holds, the Arctic will have a tough go for the next 10 days. And a significant ice export through Fram seems likely.

I'm however, NOT inclined to agree that the maximum has been reached! This for the reason that northerly winds likely will dominate for the next 10 days. OTOH, warmer than normal conditions will be in place over the fringe zones which likely will reduce the ice extent.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Rick Aster on March 10, 2017, 10:16:30 PM
There is a broad area of fragile-looking ice in the south of the Sea of Okhotsk. Maybe that was the maximum extent. It's hard to guess.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Quantum on March 10, 2017, 11:41:09 PM
Plotted arctic wide temperature anomalies over the next 7 days from Climate Reanalyser as according to the GFS.

Incredibly warm conditions followed by a rather rapid decrease in average temperature, but still much above average.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 11, 2017, 03:08:53 AM
I stretched this out some, so that you can see the Bering Strait and Wrangel Island, for points of reference. March 7-10    Click Image Please
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 11, 2017, 03:22:03 AM
Still frame of ice around FJL. Night mode.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on March 11, 2017, 05:18:19 AM
The last six or seven comments don't belong in this thread. If there is no other place for a subject, try  the Open thread. PLEASE!

[url]http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost[/url]


Seconded. This thread is to discuss the 2017 melt season which, given the current state of the ice, will be a barn burner. Let's stay on topic.


We can't talk about the effects of the melting season on Puffins in the melting season thread?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 11, 2017, 05:46:57 AM
The last six or seven comments don't belong in this thread. If there is no other place for a subject, try  the Open thread. PLEASE!

[url]http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost[/url]


Seconded. This thread is to discuss the 2017 melt season which, given the current state of the ice, will be a barn burner. Let's stay on topic.


We can't talk about the effects of the melting season on Puffins in the melting season thread?


Let's move this to the appropriate thread.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1907.0.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 11, 2017, 07:13:07 AM
A follow up on the gif that I posted covering the 7th thru 10th. Wrangel Island was to the right side of the gif. The following is from today(3-11) and I am posting this pic with the Island more centered to illustrate how fast the ice has gone down in this area.
Go ahead and zoom in.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 11, 2017, 07:44:40 AM
A follow up on the gif that I posted covering the 7th thru 10th. Wrangel Island was to the right side of the gif. The following is from today(3-11) and I am posting this pic with the Island more centered to illustrate how fast the ice has gone down in this area.
Go ahead and zoom in.
(http://)

Even currently there is constant wind (12 m/s), that is pushing ice away from coast. Should calm down by the evening, but ESS (and CAB) remains quite windy for this weekend. Image from Earth.nullschool.net
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 11, 2017, 12:09:35 PM
I reckon (with medium confidence!) the maximum is now behind us. So moving threads, here's the first glimpse of the Fram Strait at visible frequencies in 2017:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#GreenlandSea (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#GreenlandSea)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 11, 2017, 06:10:55 PM
I know that we'd see it as the destruction of ice Jim but those who look at every skip of the graph would cry you down if we see rapid break up of the ice over our side of the basin and float out into open waters?

To see Svalbard's north shore seeinmg ice now, when it has been clear all winter, might be a taste of the next couple of weeks as the FY 'glue' holding last years rubble together lets go and the pack relaxes out into open water prior to melt?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 11, 2017, 08:21:02 PM
Those who look at every skip of the graph would cry you down if we see rapid break up of the ice over our side of the basin and float out into open waters?

A good reason to keep track of both area and extent?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 12, 2017, 05:26:55 AM
Extent is likely to go up as there has been a lot of dispersion and export. I don't quite know exactly what is happening to the last glob of really thick ice, but it doesn't look good. 7th-11th
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 12, 2017, 05:38:30 AM
Another visual, but side by side. Comparing thickness from the 6th of March to the 11th. Unless this area is under attack from warm water below, I would think disperion to be the key factor.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 12, 2017, 06:16:16 AM
I don't know what is going on everybody, but it doesn't look good. I knew it was going to be an exceptional season, but it wasn't supposed take off this fast. This was just updated on the University of Bremen site. I know there is a LP, but it's not that strong and could it really make the ice go down that fast? Warm wind attacked the Chukchi and ESS for a few hours on the 10th, and at just a few degrees over freezing. What's going on?
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 12, 2017, 06:20:33 AM
What's going on?

The same as in the nearby lake? That is, 1-2 mm of defrosted snow? Lucky watery reflection on the instrument on board?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 12, 2017, 06:32:13 AM
What's going on?

The same as in the nearby lake? That is, 1-2 mm of defrosted snow? Lucky watery reflection on the instrument on board?
So, basically, the sat. sees a layer of melted snow, which is now water on top of the ice, instead of the ice underneath, and makes it appear to us that the ice is gone?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 12, 2017, 06:46:19 AM
What's going on?

The same as in the nearby lake? That is, 1-2 mm of defrosted snow? Lucky watery reflection on the instrument on board?
So, basically, the sat. sees a layer of melted snow, which is now water on top of the ice, instead of the ice underneath, and makes it appear to us that the ice is gone?
That's my guess. It could be the angle of the sun has to be just right for this to happen, and the sat would have to pass in the right time of the day. Not sure. Fairly sure this isn't yet meltpooling, but would be the same thing that happens when frost on grass has melted just a bit.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Adam Ash on March 12, 2017, 09:06:40 AM
I imagine the sats just detect the height of a reflective layer and multiply that by ten to give thickness. In the good old days that something was stacks of solid blocks of multi-year ice shoved up into huge ridges. But today that could just be rotten ice squeezed into a heap which disperses rapidly as soon as the edge restraint relaxes.  ???
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 12, 2017, 10:30:03 AM
Tutored by Neven and others... I've come to understand that variations in the Bremen sea ice concentration numbers needs to be suspicious of short-term changes.  Wait to see if it persists for several days before becoming excite.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Avalonian on March 12, 2017, 11:01:15 AM
I don't see how this effect can be dispersion, since all of the bands in that area are reducing in thickness; surely, if it were lateral collapse of piled-up slush then some of the surrounding areas would show an increase in thickness away from the peak?

From what I've read on here, it's most likely that this is some artifact and will soon go away (maybe surface water film, but it's been operating over several days, and I thought this area on nullschool and other forecasts was to have been staying way below zero at the moment - am I wrong?). If not, and this is upwelling warm water, then I guess we're stuffed. I'm a little anxious  because it strikes me that this is the sort of mechanism that could explain Jim White's records of abrupt north Greenland warming in the ice core record.

At this stage, as jdallen says, we just have to wait and see if it holds up... nervously.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Peter Ellis on March 12, 2017, 11:02:57 AM
Rapid changes on Bremen are probably water vapour in the air (either as clouds or just dispersed in the air column). 

The thickness measurements at NIPR are experimental and not believable except in very qualitative terms.  They fluctuate wildly from day to day. Moreover, if you watch videos of them at times when the Beaufort gyre is spinning you can often see the older ice getting mixed into the new ice - but on some days the older ice looks thicker than the new ice, and on some days thinner than the new ice!  Basically, that product is reading _something_ about the radiation characteristics and surface characteristics of the ice, but it's not clear to me exactly what.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Steven on March 12, 2017, 11:09:31 AM
Another visual, but side by side. Comparing thickness from the 6th of March to the 11th. Unless this area is under attack from warm water below, I would think disperion to be the key factor.
([url]http://i.imgur.com/wZU15gB.jpg[/url])


Those JAXA sea ice thickness maps should be taken with a grain of salt.  They seem to be overly sensitive to changes in temperature, snow etc.

The sudden "thinning" event north of the Canadian Archipelago is clearly unphysical.  I don't think it's due to dispersion.  Perhaps the algorithm is affected by snowfall:  according to GFS there has been snowfall in that region yesterday:

http://i.imgur.com/Y3tIUUp.png (http://i.imgur.com/Y3tIUUp.png)


I imagine the sats just detect the height of a reflective layer and multiply that by ten to give thickness.


Some satellites (like CryoSat) measure the sea ice freeboard.  But the AMSR2/JAXA sea ice thickness product seems to be based on a completely different approach using brightness temperatures.  I cannot find much information about it,  but a quick google search gives this June 2016 presentation by Kazutaka Tateyama:

http://injapan.no/arctic2016-day2/files/2015/06/ASIW2016.06.03_Tateyama_%C3%B6z%C3%B2z%C3%B9p.pdf (http://injapan.no/arctic2016-day2/files/2015/06/ASIW2016.06.03_Tateyama_%C3%B6z%C3%B2z%C3%B9p.pdf)

which mentions as "possible error sources":  "low pressure, snow cover, melting".
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 12, 2017, 03:55:44 PM
I am more than happy to give it some time myself, and will keep an open mind about it. I don't claim to know the answer for certain. I do remember a comment made by Hyperion back in Feb. in the Freezing thread.

Are these thickness plots still being based on 10% freeboard or what ever similar figure is historically used for old fashioned firstyear ice? Eg/ where they are graphing 2m thick is it based on satellite measurements of  ~0.2m freeboard?
 I'm concerned that the real density might be significantly lower. if its mostly snow and  rotten honeycomb with thin ice crusts interleaved, it could be as low as 0.5 kg/litre which would make 0.2m freeboard actually ~0.4m thickness. And the blowtorch like melts in the killzone fram / svalbard / bering areas certainly look to me like what you would expect from thin and rubbish quality ice. Not solid 2m thick berg.

So I will also consider that the glob above the CAA made have not consisted of very great ice from the start. Time will tell.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 12, 2017, 04:48:43 PM
I am more than happy to give it some time myself, and will keep an open mind about it. I don't claim to know the answer for certain. I do remember a comment made by Hyperion back in Feb. in the Freezing thread.
.....
 Time will tell.
Based on seeing the fluctuations in the JAXA thickness plot (thickening and thinning in unlikely ways) I agree with Steven who seems to have looked into this (always a good idea to check information rather than go with what some bloke on the forum says, including me of course)
I also think that Jaxa thickness plot is based on passive microwave sensors (AMSR) and works very differently from Cryosat. Previous commenters are mixing those up.
I recall reading that this does not work well in thicker ice, but it can give an indication where  there is probably thick ice due to thicker ice usually having low surface temperature.
 
Digging out information is a bit boring, especially when it often gets ignored by commenters which prefer to voice their opinions very frequently so I'm inclined to let someone else do that.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 12, 2017, 07:33:19 PM
I don't know what is going on everybody, but it doesn't look good. I knew it was going to be an exceptional season, but it wasn't supposed take off this fast. This was just updated on the University of Bremen site. I know there is a LP, but it's not that strong and could it really make the ice go down that fast? Warm wind attacked the Chukchi and ESS for a few hours on the 10th, and at just a few degrees over freezing. What's going on?
(http://)

All FYI in the ESS and Chukchi, highly fractured, very mobile and, with the ridiculous FDD anomalies this year, not the cold hard ice we have come to expect. I expect a stormy melt season with a highly mobile ice pack and a continuation in the trend towards increased dispersion at minimum.

We saw how the big block, thick MYI, fared in the Beaufort last year. Given the location of the last remnant of MYI north of the CAA, I don't think we will see any transport of MYI into the Beaufort and we should see an early melt and wide open Pacific side of the CAB at min.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 12, 2017, 07:54:21 PM
Once melt season is properly underway I think some will be surprised at just how fast the ice disintegrates in small floes ( last years rubble)?

Open water is the issue we face. Open water over ever increasing areas for ever increasing amounts of time.

Look at the open water in 07' and how fragmented the pack remaining was. Do the same for the rest of the years and compare with how much open water we saw throughout 2016's melt season.

2016 is the new template for ice behaviour over summer with early breakup and open water throughout the basin by solastice.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 12, 2017, 09:20:29 PM
On the Atlantic side, things are even worse. Expect a wide open Atlantic side of the CAB as well although the highly mobile ice could replenish the ice that melts in this area. The only question for me is whether (how much) of the 2m to 2.5 meter ice (the elephant trunk) will survive the melt season.

If most of it melts we will have new record minimums for SIA and SIE.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 12, 2017, 09:35:06 PM
On the Atlantic side, things are even worse.
And How! Nightband image.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 12, 2017, 09:56:49 PM
None of that ice is more than 1.2 meters thick and much of it is under 1 meter.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Hyperion on March 12, 2017, 09:59:57 PM
hmmm...
a few rough guesstimates calculated by various means are suggesting that with this constant motion and export of surface water and ice into a long polar basin kill zone with big wind and wave conditions mixing in with Gulfstream waters, we could have lost several metres of an arctic ocean wide fresher layer by export alone over the winter. And the constant refreezing of the exposed waters is of course releasing some brine but with so much motion I'd be surprized if this does anything but raise the salinity of the lens. Halocline collapse is looking likely. :'(
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 12, 2017, 10:06:50 PM
None of that ice is more than 1.2 meters thick and much of it is under 1 meter.

Summer storm fodder....
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on March 12, 2017, 10:35:03 PM
hmmm...
a few rough guesstimates calculated by various means are suggesting that with this constant motion and export of surface water and ice into a long polar basin kill zone with big wind and wave conditions mixing in with Gulfstream waters, we could have lost several metres of an arctic ocean wide fresher layer by export alone over the winter. And the constant refreezing of the exposed waters is of course releasing some brine but with so much motion I'd be surprized if this does anything but raise the salinity of the lens. Halocline collapse is looking likely. :'(

The evidence of Halocline collapse is Atlantic waters penetrating out beyond the shelf and over the Nansen Basin on the surface. That phenomenon was observed by A-Team last year, a band of warm water extending from Svalbard and north of FJL. I think it's fair to assume that where that happens the halocline has broken down completely.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 13, 2017, 05:32:37 AM
There have been no warm winds anywhere for two days. The up to about 3oC wind on the 10th was in a very isolated area, not over the whole Arctic. The average surface air temps. are between -20oC to -250C. There has been some wind, just no warmth in it. My only thoughts at this point are in regard to the water under the ice, as I do not know much about downward long wave radiation. Could it cause surface melt on the ice without heating the air? Either way, things are looking worse. I am trying to keep an open mind, but as each day goes by a fluke seems less likely.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 13, 2017, 05:47:04 AM
My only thoughts at this point are in regard to the water under the ice, as I do not know much about downward long wave radiation. Could it cause surface melt on the ice without heating the air?
There'd have to be an awful lot of it, and it by nature would raise air temperatures as well, so no, I don't think you'd get surface melt without increasing air temperatures.

Bottom melt is a different issue, and with temperatures above -20c, we're looking at their being enough excess heat flow through the ice that some of it would get captured as phase change.  The ice won't disappear as surface temps are still well below freezing, but the balance of heat flow means any ice much over a meter thick may have to contend with dynamics that prevent enough heat passing through the ice to prevent it from melting.

The balance would get restored as you reduce the thickness and permit greater heat flow.  At this stage any melt would be measured in a handful of CM at most.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 13, 2017, 06:22:49 AM
I am not big on the surface melt myself, but was considering it because a couple of people mentioned the possibility of a snow layer on top of the ice that may be melting and fooling the sat. instruments. And that's the thing; melting from what?

I think it a much stronger possibility that there is both dispersion and upwelling, and that these are breaking up the rotten ice. Some melting happening, maybe, but mostly breaking up.

P.S. Whether it be instruments or whatever, Wipneus' Volume chart based on JAXA data just took a nosedive. I am just observing this. I am not trying to dogmatically say that I understand it all. Perhaps it is some error, though it would be a confounding one.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Adam Ash on March 13, 2017, 08:40:19 AM
I cannot find ice pack snow thickness data, but I winder if the high air moisture content has led to these lower temperatures dropping snow over the pack, hence insulating it from the cold air and reducing ice thickness build?  That would allow bottom melt to continue apace, with thickness un-replenished by heat loss upwards to the air?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 13, 2017, 09:15:13 AM
According to Environment Canada (http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html) the latest Arctic cyclone bottomed out at 971 hPa at 06:00 UTC yesterday. This morning MSLP has risen to all of 973 hPa:
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Hyperion on March 13, 2017, 10:43:27 AM
The overall atmospheric circulations in both hemispheres are reminiscent of tropical cyclones with dual eyewalls. there only one significant low in each hemisphere right now. And they both seem to extend in height right up to near 10hPa - 30km altitude. The stratospheric set up over the nth atlantic seems to be dropping them like eggs to invade the arctic, and the helical infeed at high levels is beyond my ability to speculate on consequences. There seems very little cyclonic activity in either hemisphere outside of the big low pressure eyes in each. Im intrigued as to whether the high altitude east to west flow moving from the south, and now flirting with the equator is going to continue migrating north with the equinox passing and its twin u-turn outflows into the Nth hemisphere vortexes strengthen and consolidate.  Dumping southern summer energy on the northern polar system.
Anyone remember kansas? If this is a mode setting in solidly we might be in for desert zones from 35 sth to 35 nth latitudes. Looks like any tropical lows trying to form are getting their tops sheared off and stillborn. The Hadley cells losing the war.
We may have an explanation for why it was cosy for temperate climate critters, at least seasonally, in northern Europe, Siberia and Alaska after the big melt pulse 13KA BP. This sort of thing could have it very warm and wet in those places.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 13, 2017, 11:27:12 AM
Anyone remember kansas?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 13, 2017, 11:29:08 AM
@Hyperion
The circulation patterns over the Arctic match all the way up to 250 hpa, but change between there and 70 hpa.(If I am looking at it, wrong please correct me) If you have the mslp button on, while on Earth NS it makes it appear to match higher and will read wrong sometimes even after you turn it off. Still I find it pretty remarkable that the patterns match all the way up to jet stream height. Not saying that has never happened at all, but I don't recall seeing it. Anyone have a clue as to what this might mean?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 13, 2017, 11:50:54 AM
My only thoughts at this point are in regard to the water under the ice, as I do not know much about downward long wave radiation. Could it cause surface melt on the ice without heating the air?

There'd have to be an awful lot of it, and it by nature would raise air temperatures as well, so no, I don't think you'd get surface melt without increasing air temperatures.


Melt onset is determined by downwelling longwave radiation. From Mortin et al. (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069330/full) (2016):

"The timing of melt onset affects the surface energy uptake throughout the melt season. Yet the processes triggering melt and causing its large interannual variability are not well understood. Here we show that melt onset over Arctic sea ice is initiated by positive anomalies of water vapor, clouds, and air temperatures that increase the downwelling longwave radiation (LWD) to the surface. The earlier melt onset occurs; the stronger are these anomalies. Downwelling shortwave radiation (SWD) is smaller than usual at melt onset, indicating that melt is not triggered by SWD. When melt occurs early, an anomalously opaque atmosphere with positive LWD anomalies preconditions the surface for weeks preceding melt. In contrast, when melt begins late, clearer than usual conditions are evident prior to melt. Hence, atmospheric processes are imperative for melt onset. It is also found that spring LWD increased during recent decades, consistent with trends toward an earlier melt onset."

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Peter Ellis on March 13, 2017, 11:51:18 AM
Could it cause surface melt on the ice without heating the air? Either way, things are looking worse. I am trying to keep an open mind, but as each day goes by a fluke seems less likely.

Stop panicking.  It's clouds - water vapour in the air rather than surface meltwater or open ocean water.  From the standpoint of this satellite, it's all water. Rapid day-to-day fluctuations on the Bremen map are almost ALWAYS clouds - they try to algorithmically filter them out but it's not always possible. 

Bremen is a couple of days delayed relative to other sources.  Here are the Worldview images for the 10th March for Hudson Bay and the Arctic Ocean. Observe the thick white clouds concealing the ice (red) in the areas of apparent "low concentration" on the Bremen maps.  It's particularly convincing for Hudson Bay, where you can see the exact curved shape of the weather system.
http://go.nasa.gov/2mRMNwv (http://go.nasa.gov/2mRMNwv)
http://go.nasa.gov/2mirBfR (http://go.nasa.gov/2mirBfR)

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Peter Ellis on March 13, 2017, 11:52:44 AM
I cannot find ice pack snow thickness data, but I winder if the high air moisture content has led to these lower temperatures dropping snow over the pack, hence insulating it from the cold air and reducing ice thickness build? 
So nearly correct.  High air moisture correct is directly (and erroneously) detected as lowered ice concentration.  It'll bounce back up again when the clouds pass.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 13, 2017, 11:56:55 AM
I've been looking at ASCAT radar images and saw some interesting features. Here's an animation for the past week, and those features are in the first frame (white circle and rectangle):

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/XMBmRiwJMCpB7EdRTRfPQwG9xSNo6OqK-00iJTjc7XgZHgHq9_Q50KjQK7WY3bGtD9N2JRt89DTx9uj4bDfK_Ytaegp2Yje738UfK00tSsAyqK5AuZwDvNYyIhzkjLrIPUx_2ywWEAVexMdL1vcf3PPjBwZHHIlRDMbLXxe3AGzKmawM0yC9Yw4RMjVoWGMF4jcxCylZNcf3wJLmtV4RZvlUul4awGj39CL4jGPxlnSclZMusv34I0ZEhFh9Dpk6CdK2D3oepWnM1pKso1sN_wUV2se2TWqBLwgZQhea32YQMBgzZD91s9ZJlI9DE1k4cbTLLaDjfBBAFxZfPtSRIsMLtNtHZ7MPq4DIa6dOQsT_xIR2CYb0pWySCeAWq6l9LZC8yPHqWH-1fAz3lpihtSknBRt3aexrvXiNr19T8_qez_esQvolYkW0gwaZ1aKiCmXjdgy3W_QWmVWGXbagfWiwX_Mu0al-aW79N7FnPsVEcv00K6EPHk_NMP7lbmf-TNT5vlofp7unuULlTqD95pCd2JU8ndxPcr1w3JUht0hjpySn7N7KBL-QqdWdi7XpA9Ij908xOZUfxrHdUFnU5gnLLp7oGdIx3hDe_9WqCFEJRahCT5di=w496-h468-no)

Usually, dark means thin in radar images, and these features have been there since November. The one in the circle looks especially interesting, but I don't know if it means these regions are  thinner. And I haven't compared to other years yet either, but I thought I'd throw it out here to see what you guys think.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Peter Ellis on March 13, 2017, 12:02:46 PM
Extent is likely to go up as there has been a lot of dispersion and export. I don't quite know exactly what is happening to the last glob of really thick ice, but it doesn't look good. 7th-11th

Look at your own animation.  And I mean really look, don't just see what you want to see.  The "arm" of ice sticking out into the East Siberian Sea is easily visible. We know this is older ice that survived from last year.  It must therefore be thicker than the immediately neighbouring first year ice, since as the new ice forms, the already-existing ice gets thicker.  One class of ice can't overtake the other in thickness.

BUT

In most of the frames, the old ice arm is a darker green, i.e. apparently "thinner" than this ice around it.  That alone is enough to tell you that this product is WRONG and is not correctly measuring ice thickness.  It's not even consistent from day to day: in some frames the old ice arm does indeed look thicker than its surroundings.

Stop trying to read more into these pictures than they will support.  They're a good way of getting a general overview of the boundaries between older and younger ice. No more.  They are not numerically accurate, and do not genuinely measure ice thickness and volume.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 13, 2017, 12:18:18 PM
@Peter Ellis
Don't mistake my enthusiasm for panicking. I am trying to observe what is happening. That is all.
I am looking at every available asset to evaluate the situation. I have stated several times that I don't have any preconceptions about it all. You are right about the moisture playing a role, but I think more along the line of Neven's quote from Mortin et al. Plus, I am not looking at a one or two day fluke, as more than one person has said. What I see has been going on a few days, and therefore deserves at least to be monitored. If it turns out one way or the other, that's that.

BTW
Hudson Bay ice is in bad shape. I have been looking at it all winter and it never really thickened like it should have. The clouds and storms and turbulence are hurting it, just as the sat. is showing.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 13, 2017, 02:11:31 PM
I've been looking at ASCAT radar images and saw some interesting features. Here's an animation for the past week, and those features are in the first frame (white circle and rectangle):

Usually, dark means thin in radar images, and these features have been there since November. The one in the circle looks especially interesting, but I don't know if it means these regions are  thinner. And I haven't compared to other years yet either, but I thought I'd throw it out here to see what you guys think.

Whatever those two dark areas are, it is ice and not clouds. I'm inclined to think it is thin ice. The thin ice in the rectangle is interesting in that it appears to mimic the Laptev bite we often see at the end of a melt season. I am wondering if there is an ocean phenomena (upwelling of warm water) that is a persistent feature in this area of the ocean. When the ice was very thick, this feature was fully obscured during the winters and only became visible during aggressive melt seasons. Now, with wildly warm winters (FDD anomaly) this upwelling prevents the ice from thickening.

This is, of course, wild speculation on my part.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 13, 2017, 02:19:10 PM
As A-Team is missing, I try to operate with gif's. Latest Hycom forecast Mar 8 - Mar 12. Notice Fram export, Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

If you look at this animation, there is a similar feature although it is not aligned exactly.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: johnm33 on March 13, 2017, 03:47:03 PM
Hyperion I don't often check the 2[1]  links below but have been for a couple of weeks or so, just to follow the highs/lows in the arctic, the weather systems have been flowing from the tropics to the arctic all that time, at least on the atlantic side.
http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=nhem&url=../imgs/wv_nhem_anim.gif (http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=nhem&url=../imgs/wv_nhem_anim.gif)
http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=nhem&url=../imgs/ir_nhem_anim.gif (http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=nhem&url=../imgs/ir_nhem_anim.gif)
I'm thinking the circle in Nevens animation closely coincides with the Laptev end of the Amundsen/Nansen basins, and that Atlantic currents are forced all the way across the north barents sea shelf, some fraction escapes to the NSI side of Lomonosov but the rest circulates venting heat/vapour into the area. The way that settles out depends on current weather, but snow or mist it conditions the ice.. The rectangle seems associated with the Alpha/Mendeleyev ridge and Makarov basin, so I suspect it's ice passing over the ridges, including Lomonosov, stirring the depths of Makarov.
It's worth clicking through from the 8th to see the added impetus the tides gives to the heat ingress
http://go.nasa.gov/2miRfkr (http://go.nasa.gov/2miRfkr)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 13, 2017, 03:53:52 PM
I've been looking at ASCAT radar images and saw some interesting features. Here's an animation for the past week, and those features are in the first frame (white circle and rectangle):

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/XMBmRiwJMCpB7EdRTRfPQwG9xSNo6OqK-00iJTjc7XgZHgHq9_Q50KjQK7WY3bGtD9N2JRt89DTx9uj4bDfK_Ytaegp2Yje738UfK00tSsAyqK5AuZwDvNYyIhzkjLrIPUx_2ywWEAVexMdL1vcf3PPjBwZHHIlRDMbLXxe3AGzKmawM0yC9Yw4RMjVoWGMF4jcxCylZNcf3wJLmtV4RZvlUul4awGj39CL4jGPxlnSclZMusv34I0ZEhFh9Dpk6CdK2D3oepWnM1pKso1sN_wUV2se2TWqBLwgZQhea32YQMBgzZD91s9ZJlI9DE1k4cbTLLaDjfBBAFxZfPtSRIsMLtNtHZ7MPq4DIa6dOQsT_xIR2CYb0pWySCeAWq6l9LZC8yPHqWH-1fAz3lpihtSknBRt3aexrvXiNr19T8_qez_esQvolYkW0gwaZ1aKiCmXjdgy3W_QWmVWGXbagfWiwX_Mu0al-aW79N7FnPsVEcv00K6EPHk_NMP7lbmf-TNT5vlofp7unuULlTqD95pCd2JU8ndxPcr1w3JUht0hjpySn7N7KBL-QqdWdi7XpA9Ij908xOZUfxrHdUFnU5gnLLp7oGdIx3hDe_9WqCFEJRahCT5di=w496-h468-no)

Usually, dark means thin in radar images, and these features have been there since November. The one in the circle looks especially interesting, but I don't know if it means these regions are  thinner. And I haven't compared to other years yet either, but I thought I'd throw it out here to see what you guys think.
FYI and FYI according to the russian service that you point to in the ASIG, Neven. The elongated structure seems trapped FYI between the two surviving arms of ice in September, and the other region has been growing in extension as the surviving ice drifted northwards.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 13, 2017, 04:32:57 PM
Thanks, sis, that explains it.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Paddy on March 13, 2017, 05:17:44 PM
Btw, Neven, "sis" is usually a colloquialism for "sister". Although I'm sure seaicesailor wouldn't be offended by the monikor.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 13, 2017, 06:24:13 PM
Thanks, bro.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Hyperion on March 13, 2017, 07:04:06 PM
@Hyperion
The circulation patterns over the Arctic match all the way up to 250 hpa, but change between there and 70 hpa.(If I am looking at it, wrong please correct me) If you have the mslp button on, while on Earth NS it makes it appear to match higher and will read wrong sometimes even after you turn it off. Still I find it pretty remarkable that the patterns match all the way up to jet stream height. Not saying that has never happened at all, but I don't recall seeing it. Anyone have a clue as to what this might mean?
The circulation exists anticlockwise over the arctic one and the Antarctic clockwise still at the 70hpa about 18km. Above that the arctic one has a clockwise up to 270 kmph vortex. Possibly its high altitude outflow. Certainly the only point in the 10hpa world colder than below it. But intermeshed is a raging anticlockwise spool winding in a jet from the equator that passes 1.5 times around the planet. I'm hypothesising a mechanism  may exist for that one assisting spawning the nth Atlantic new ones that keep forming directly beneath it.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 13, 2017, 07:14:16 PM
@Hyperion
The circulation patterns over the Arctic match all the way up to 250 hpa, but change between there and 70 hpa.(If I am looking at it, wrong please correct me) If you have the mslp button on, while on Earth NS it makes it appear to match higher and will read wrong sometimes even after you turn it off. Still I find it pretty remarkable that the patterns match all the way up to jet stream height. Not saying that has never happened at all, but I don't recall seeing it. Anyone have a clue as to what this might mean?
The circulation exists anticlockwise over the arctic one and the Antarctic clockwise still at the 70hpa about 18km. Above that the arctic one has a clockwise up to 270 kmph vortex. Possibly its high altitude outflow. Certainly the only point in the 10hpa world colder than below it. But intermeshed is a raging anticlockwise spool winding in a jet from the equator that passes 1.5 times around the planet. I'm hypothesising a mechanism  may exist for that one assisting spawning the nth Atlantic new ones that keep forming directly beneath it.

A 3-D  model would really come in handy for that.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 13, 2017, 08:39:29 PM
Btw, Neven, "sis" is usually a colloquialism for "sister". Although I'm sure seaicesailor wouldn't be offended by the monikor.
LOL
I didn't notice (not native in english tongue) so fine with me.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 13, 2017, 08:55:38 PM
I got an idea from a post by johnm33 earlier where he referred to the temperature band on worldview. So. I took a look at it from the start of winter til now. February was the only month that didn't see a lot of warmth sneak in under the ice. March was a different story as seen here in the gif.
....
Thank you for putting this together, but I am puzzled why you think this shows warmth sneaking in "under the ice". Can you explain?
The thermal infrared band shows clouds (warmer low clouds and colder high cloud tops) or snow / ice surface (which quickly gets cold under clear sky, when it is visible from the satellite)
Thinner ice shows up as warmer areas, especially when frozen over very recently, and open ocean is the warmest surface seen in arctic winter even if it is near freezing temperature.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 13, 2017, 09:05:23 PM
I got an idea from a post by johnm33 earlier where he referred to the temperature band on worldview. So. I took a look at it from the start of winter til now. February was the only month that didn't see a lot of warmth sneak in under the ice. March was a different story as seen here in the gif. CLICK IMAGE March 1st- 12th
Also, I made a Youtube  video of Dec. 1st til March 12th for the bigger picture. Probably not a huge amount of energy coming in at any one time this way, but remember it can't escape into space as easily as it used to.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmPWtIt0r3k (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmPWtIt0r3k)
(http://)

could this kind of temperature analyzes be used to at least cross-check on volume claims by the different models?

as it seems the temps correlate well enough with the thickness so that one could at least see wether any claim by the models is possible or out of question. for example that would mean that if a lot of heat dissipates into the atmosphere which will show as higher temps in this image, one could discount the possibility of 5m thick ice in the same area and vice versa.

just a thought to help get to terms with the not yet solved issue with all the thickness models which perhaps at the end are all not correct, but a mix of them.

end of brain storm, may the experts consider and eventually ponder over this, i'm just saying that often mixing/combining skills information and ingredients will finally do the maths. at least the past has shown
that this is often true :-)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 13, 2017, 10:34:58 PM
I've been looking at ASCAT radar images and saw some interesting features. Here's an animation for the past week, and those features are in the first frame (white circle and rectangle):

([url]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/XMBmRiwJMCpB7EdRTRfPQwG9xSNo6OqK-00iJTjc7XgZHgHq9_Q50KjQK7WY3bGtD9N2JRt89DTx9uj4bDfK_Ytaegp2Yje738UfK00tSsAyqK5AuZwDvNYyIhzkjLrIPUx_2ywWEAVexMdL1vcf3PPjBwZHHIlRDMbLXxe3AGzKmawM0yC9Yw4RMjVoWGMF4jcxCylZNcf3wJLmtV4RZvlUul4awGj39CL4jGPxlnSclZMusv34I0ZEhFh9Dpk6CdK2D3oepWnM1pKso1sN_wUV2se2TWqBLwgZQhea32YQMBgzZD91s9ZJlI9DE1k4cbTLLaDjfBBAFxZfPtSRIsMLtNtHZ7MPq4DIa6dOQsT_xIR2CYb0pWySCeAWq6l9LZC8yPHqWH-1fAz3lpihtSknBRt3aexrvXiNr19T8_qez_esQvolYkW0gwaZ1aKiCmXjdgy3W_QWmVWGXbagfWiwX_Mu0al-aW79N7FnPsVEcv00K6EPHk_NMP7lbmf-TNT5vlofp7unuULlTqD95pCd2JU8ndxPcr1w3JUht0hjpySn7N7KBL-QqdWdi7XpA9Ij908xOZUfxrHdUFnU5gnLLp7oGdIx3hDe_9WqCFEJRahCT5di=w496-h468-no[/url])

Usually, dark means thin in radar images, and these features have been there since November. The one in the circle looks especially interesting, but I don't know if it means these regions are  thinner. And I haven't compared to other years yet either, but I thought I'd throw it out here to see what you guys think.

tracking the area in the circle back to september I can confirm what SIS spotted in the russian ice chart: this was open water on Sept 17th (changing shape somewhat) the outline seems to be formed by ice movement at the time when it froze over a few days after that.
Clouds obscure the area in the visible images but AMSR brightness temp helps to track it and relate worldview to the ASCAT images.
attached are:
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2016260.sir.gif (https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2016260.sir.gif)
and http://go.nasa.gov/2mTOnOl (http://go.nasa.gov/2mTOnOl)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 13, 2017, 11:34:00 PM
...
 For example, if a surface area shows up colder one day and warmer the next, did the ice get thinner there overnight? Did something heat the area from above? Or is it more likely, for the time of year that warm water moved underneath and is now showing up?
No, if the area shows up warmer from one day to the next, this is caused by warm and moist air moving in which in arctic winter forms clouds. These clouds are opaque to IR and therefore you see the clouds and not the ice surface. When you zoom in you can distinguish the cracked patterns of ice surface and the softer contours of fast moving clouds. If the clouds are very thick the cloud tops are at a much higher altitude and cold by adiabatic expansion, but low clouds will show up warmer than the ice surface. Below the clouds the ice surface will warm but not necessarily to the temperature of the cloud, it is quite likely that there is a temperature inversion. The ice surface which was visible from the satellite was cold because it is radiating into space (where the satellite sees its IR emission). When clouds move between ice and satellite they radiate (due to their temperature and emissivity) Downwelling Longwave Radiation to give the ice surface a less negative radiation balance (or a positive one if the clouds are warmer than the ice). Since the ice surface also has a heat flux from the sea below, this less negative radiation balance is enough to raise its temperature. But in winter the bulk of the ice is still colder than freezing point and there is no melting. (unless the water is sufficiently above the freezing temp, as we see off Spitsbergen)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Cid_Yama on March 14, 2017, 02:42:57 AM
DMI now shows temperatures back up 5-7C above normal (250-255K). It is now too late for cold temperatures to permit a recovery in volume.

In another 10 days we start the sharp spring climb in temperatures as the sun returns.  The current and coming storms pretty much preclude any serious return of cold weather.

What we have is about what we are going to get, ice-wise.

Yes, as I said, March surprise.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 14, 2017, 09:42:16 AM
Winds look to really favor Fram export over the next few days. Not much quality to the ice in that area, so as to offer any resistance.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 14, 2017, 10:06:42 AM
I will prepare good coffee over next several days. Strong winds near Svalbard support Fram export Mar 14 - Mar 19 and Mar 21 (GFS). Also low pressures over Arctic and higher than usual temperatures. Here is example of Wed ice drift estimate.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 14, 2017, 10:32:20 AM
Yep. Mean temperatures won't be telling half of the story. Kara, Barentsz, Okhotsk, Bering seas suffering anomalous temps especially that wave coming from Eurasia according to GFS (0 -168h forecasts below). The low will be pulling and pushing, with a well defined front of temperature. Those cracks along the Asian coast will eventually  refreeze but chances are we are going to see them a lot in Tealights maps come May.
The only part that is faring well is the young ice of the Beaufort sea at the moment. Quiet and cold.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on March 14, 2017, 10:52:43 AM
Although I also think the thinness of sea ice is the reason here, I am sure other factors can also play into this such as snow darkened by some substances like ash and smoke particles that are fallen onto snow and ice surfaces - even during winter. These could alter the radiative balance (flow) of both visible light and long wave spectrum. There is also possibility of properties of silt from the rivers and residual heat from turbulent and mixing break water (altering densities temperature-salinity) that can push more or less heat through ice cover. Indeed, in summer season I have seen rebounce radiation from sea water managing to make its way through snow covered ice to surface making slight variations in the colour of sea ice/snow cover as colour of water shines through ice and snow. (The water beneath ice is illuminated in colours of blue, green, brown or gray depending on riparian discharge and algae growth - noticing these through ice and snow requires a good eye to notice the colours against the immense glare of snow in satellite images.) How significant these are in long-wave region of spectrum, I do not know. In visible light the colours of water beneath ice and snow are hard to see on many occasions.

In addition, the barren ice, thickness of snow cover, and its compactness all change heat signature from sea (besides sea ice thickness). These complications could be more pronounced in interpreting future images as there might be heavier snowfalls on ice ("lake-snow effect on sea ice off the open areas" was, after all, once proposed as the cause of immense snow falls of the Ice Ages, proposed by Maurice Ewing and William Donn. [Ewing-Donn Lake-Snow Effect of the Arctic as cause of open Arctic Ocean flipping into the Ice Age in 1950's. Their case failed in sediment cores leading to reversion back to earlier Milutin Milankovic's orbital forcing effects as driver of glaciations-deglaciations]. Methane laden sea water also has different radiative properties, but whether it is significant in water is another matter as thermal inertia of water is massive in comparison to air. If it were, then water from above methane clathrates would appear warmer.

I've been looking at ASCAT radar images and saw some interesting features. Here's an animation for the past week, and those features are in the first frame (white circle and rectangle):

([url]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/XMBmRiwJMCpB7EdRTRfPQwG9xSNo6OqK-00iJTjc7XgZHgHq9_Q50KjQK7WY3bGtD9N2JRt89DTx9uj4bDfK_Ytaegp2Yje738UfK00tSsAyqK5AuZwDvNYyIhzkjLrIPUx_2ywWEAVexMdL1vcf3PPjBwZHHIlRDMbLXxe3AGzKmawM0yC9Yw4RMjVoWGMF4jcxCylZNcf3wJLmtV4RZvlUul4awGj39CL4jGPxlnSclZMusv34I0ZEhFh9Dpk6CdK2D3oepWnM1pKso1sN_wUV2se2TWqBLwgZQhea32YQMBgzZD91s9ZJlI9DE1k4cbTLLaDjfBBAFxZfPtSRIsMLtNtHZ7MPq4DIa6dOQsT_xIR2CYb0pWySCeAWq6l9LZC8yPHqWH-1fAz3lpihtSknBRt3aexrvXiNr19T8_qez_esQvolYkW0gwaZ1aKiCmXjdgy3W_QWmVWGXbagfWiwX_Mu0al-aW79N7FnPsVEcv00K6EPHk_NMP7lbmf-TNT5vlofp7unuULlTqD95pCd2JU8ndxPcr1w3JUht0hjpySn7N7KBL-QqdWdi7XpA9Ij908xOZUfxrHdUFnU5gnLLp7oGdIx3hDe_9WqCFEJRahCT5di=w496-h468-no[/url])

Usually, dark means thin in radar images, and these features have been there since November. The one in the circle looks especially interesting, but I don't know if it means these regions are  thinner. And I haven't compared to other years yet either, but I thought I'd throw it out here to see what you guys think.

tracking the area in the circle back to september I can confirm what SIS spotted in the russian ice chart: this was open water on Sept 17th (changing shape somewhat) the outline seems to be formed by ice movement at the time when it froze over a few days after that.
Clouds obscure the area in the visible images but AMSR brightness temp helps to track it and relate worldview to the ASCAT images.
attached are:
[url]https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2016260.sir.gif[/url] ([url]https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2016260.sir.gif[/url])
and [url]http://go.nasa.gov/2mTOnOl[/url] ([url]http://go.nasa.gov/2mTOnOl[/url])
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 14, 2017, 05:11:19 PM
Looking closely thru the ECMWF to the "yet another" bomb storm from the North Atlantic in four- five days, I think it is going to make puree. And it comes with friends from Norway Kara and the now native or permanent resident of the Arctic. Storms unleashed until when.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 14, 2017, 06:08:14 PM
That "bomb" is currently giving 30CM of snow to my sister near Boston...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 14, 2017, 07:59:22 PM
Here is the latest HYCOM ice thickness forecast Mar 14 - Mar 21. Confirms solid Fram export and also Kara Sea thinning (near Novaya Zemlya). Also Laptev Sea coast and ESS coast are not in a good position. On the other hand Beaufort Sea seems to be better so far.
Images: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 14, 2017, 08:39:00 PM
I must say my confidence in ACNFS thickness has grown this freezing season, some late tweak in 2015 or 2016 must have improved it since it is not so far as it used to wrt Cryosat and PIOMAS (granted there are differences). Similarities as well with the AMSR2-based product in the shape of the old ice, with ASCAT patterns etc. The same I DON'T feel about the DMI HYCOM.
I doubt the confidence will remain during summer.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: slow wing on March 14, 2017, 08:42:52 PM
Thanks Romett1. Yes, the HYCOM prediction is scary, with a lot of thicker ice either exiting through the Fram Strait or else heading in that direction.

  A lot of the thickening in the Beaufort Sea appears to be from compression, with the ice blown towards the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic coastlines.

  It's going to be critical how much new ice grows over the next month on the Siberian side to replace the ice that has migrated West. Are we going to have much of the thin ice on the Atlantic side of the Laptev Sea melted out and exposed to peak insolation by around the Summer solstice?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 14, 2017, 10:06:15 PM
... Are we going to have much of the thin ice on the Atlantic side of the Laptev Sea melted out and exposed to peak insolation by around the Summer solstice?
It's quite plausible though far from certain.

What I noted was the rapid melt in the western Kara. That retreat could amplify changes in the Laptev and Barents.

The ice exiting the Fram does appear to be from exactly the densest remaining MYI in the basin aside from that packed along the CAA.  Hard to think of worse ice to have destroyed this early in the season.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 14, 2017, 10:39:55 PM
You have to wonder if the thick ice above the CAA isn't the product of numerous compaction events. It seems to break up if you look at the wrong way. It just doesn't seem dense or homogeneous like MYI should be. If that is the case, there may be even less MYI left than we thought.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 14, 2017, 10:51:31 PM
You have to wonder if the thick ice above the CAA isn't the product of numerous compaction events. It seems to break up if you look at the wrong way. It just doesn't seem dense or homogeneous like MYI should be. If that is the case, there may be even less MYI left than we thought.
No doubt about compaction as the ice has been mobile.

I credit the warmer ice temperatures as responsible for the ice's apparent friable condition.  It loses mechanical strength  rapidly as you get above -30C or so.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: subgeometer on March 15, 2017, 12:00:09 AM
The GFS forecast shows rain areas in the Kara Sea every day for the next 5 days.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 15, 2017, 02:21:10 AM
 I thought it might be at least a little interesting to see what the export ready ice looks like at this time.            CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE PLEASE
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 15, 2017, 09:30:10 AM

It's going to be critical how much new ice grows over the next month on the Siberian side to replace the ice that has migrated West. Are we going to have much of the thin ice on the Atlantic side of the Laptev Sea melted out and exposed to peak insolation by around the Summer solstice?


You must be psychic. This just appeared in my mail box:

Winter sea ice export from the Laptev Sea preconditions the local summer sea ice cover
 ([url]http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2017-28/[/url])
Received: 27 Feb 2017 – Accepted for review: 11 Mar 2017 – Discussion started: 15 Mar 2017

Abstract: Recent studies based on satellite observations have shown that there is a high statistical connection between the late winter (Feb-May) sea ice export out the Laptev Sea, and the ice coverage in the following summer. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the southeastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late winter sea ice cover, and vice versa. Once temperature rise above freezing, these thin ice zones melt more rapidly and hence, precondition local anomalies in summer sea ice cover. The preconditioning effect of the winter ice dynamics for the summer sea ice extent is confirmed with a model sensitivity study where we replace the inter-annual summer atmospheric forcing by a climatology. In the model, years with high late winter sea ice export always result in a reduced sea ice cover, and vice versa. We conclude that the observed tendency towards an increased ice export further accelerates ice retreat in summer. The mechanism presented in this study highlights the importance of winter ice dynamics for summer sea ice anomalies in addition to atmospheric processes acting on the ice cover between May and September. Finally, we show that ice dynamics in winter not only precondition local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast ice decay.


Am I too early announcing the Northern Sea Route will be completely open again this year?  ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 15, 2017, 10:42:45 AM
But wasn't kind of obvious from these past years? We can pick the paper, find/replace Laptev by Beaufort and submit a new paper... ;P
Just kidding, maximum respect to their work
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 15, 2017, 10:58:46 AM
This 'period of transition' is occurring far faster than science can respond? We are seeing 'Deniers' running with the 'weather cost as much Arctic ice as warming' paper whilst we sit at the tail end of the Meteorological winter over the basin we have just seen?

I'm sure that once 'ice free' we will still be seeing papers about a 'slow transition' and why this is how things will be?

These days I always find myself checking the study period and if it includes data from before the mid noughties I consider it dated by the changes we have seen to the system since?

When we look at the troposphere/Stratosphere over the basin this past winter and compare that to weathers over winter from the 90's can we compare them? Is there 'continuation' across that time or is 'weather/circulation' now too altered for a like for like comparison? So how does this new paper advance understanding of the future or should it be treated as a historical document looking at the workings of 'The Old Arctic'?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 15, 2017, 01:53:02 PM

Am I too early announcing the Northern Sea Route will be completely open again this year?  ;)

No.

I would be shocked if the Northern Sea Route doesn't open this year and would not be surprised if it opened very early.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 15, 2017, 02:06:25 PM
The Central Arctic Basin has fractured from the sea ice edge to 90 N in the last week. You will need to download and zoom the images to see the full effects. No time to crop and post.

This ice is a mess and moving in troubling ways.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 15, 2017, 02:20:49 PM
This 'period of transition' is occurring far faster than science can respond? We are seeing 'Deniers' running with the 'weather cost as much Arctic ice as warming' paper whilst we sit at the tail end of the Meteorological winter over the basin we have just seen?


Someone needs to explain to them that this "weather" (a pattern we have watched emerge for a decade) is not weather. It is called "Climate Change" and I believe more or less permanent. These low pressure systems, often emerging over the Gulf Stream and then racing up into the North Atlantic, east of Greenland and spinning into the Barents and Arctic Ocean are becoming more and more frequent. They have caused very violent weather, entire seasons actually, in the British Isles and are decimating Arctic Ice. One frequent feature of this is a high pressure that sets up over Greenland, just as we are seeing in this forecast. IIRC, these cyclone cannons are occurring in every season but I could be wrong about that.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 15, 2017, 02:38:14 PM
Someone needs to explain to them that this "weather" (a pattern we have watched emerge for a decade) is not weather.
Ok.
"This is not normal weather. In fact all the weather since 1998 hasn't been. Umm. We only see it now since..."
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 15, 2017, 03:37:48 PM
Ice drift forecast for tomorrow, Mar 16. Fram export same as today.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 15, 2017, 04:36:02 PM
Ice drift forecast for tomorrow, Mar 16. Fram export same as today.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
And there we have 10-15000 KM2/day of MYI getting drop-kicked out of the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 15, 2017, 05:10:41 PM
Ice drift forecast for tomorrow, Mar 16. Fram export same as today.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Hey Ho , lets go! That's just fycked yp and totally agaimst whatever we were taught of arctic winter.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: gerontocrat on March 15, 2017, 05:44:28 PM
Weather-forecast.com says conditions favourable for export for next 4 to 6 days.

Never a dull monent.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: tzupancic on March 15, 2017, 10:45:22 PM
Does anyone have any comments on the paper that came out on Monday in Nature Climate Change, "Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice". http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/nclimate3241.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/nclimate3241.html)

The authors propose that a substantial amount of the recently observed summer decline in Arctic Sea Ice has been driven by natural variation in atmospheric circulation. "The Arctic has seen rapid sea-ice decline in the past three decades, whilst warming at about twice the global average rate. Yet the relationship between Arctic warming and sea-ice loss is not well understood. Here, we present evidence that trends in summertime atmospheric circulation may have contributed as much as 60% to the September sea-ice extent decline since 1979. A tendency towards a stronger anticyclonic circulation over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean with a barotropic structure in the troposphere increased the downwelling longwave radiation above the ice by warming and moistening the lower troposphere. Model experiments, with reanalysis data constraining atmospheric circulation, replicate the observed thermodynamic response and indicate that the near-surface changes are dominated by circulation changes rather than feedbacks from the changing sea-ice cover. Internal variability dominates the Arctic summer circulation trend and may be responsible for about 30–50% of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979."
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 15, 2017, 10:57:01 PM
Does anyone have any comments on the paper that came out on Monday in Nature Climate Change


I have a whole article on the topic, albeit with the emphasis thus far on the reporting of the paper rather than the substance of it:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/)

All this excitement in the Twittosphere and elsewhere leads one to wonder whether Ding, Schweiger et al. saw (or should have seen?) all this coming, and if so what might have been done differently? In any event this story is set to run and run and run and……
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Cid_Yama on March 15, 2017, 11:05:40 PM
Went to look, and sure enough, this is a featured paper at WUWT where it's being sold as confirming natural cycles are responsible, not anthropogenic causes.

Expect to get repeatedly battered by deniers with this paper.  They've been given their marching orders.

See up thread for comments.   
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Archimid on March 15, 2017, 11:19:32 PM
I started the following thread to funnel the important discussion brought by tzupancic away from the melting season 2017 thread.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1920.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1920.0.html)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 15, 2017, 11:32:50 PM
These low pressure systems, often emerging over the Gulf Stream and then racing up into the North Atlantic, east of Greenland and spinning into the Barents and Arctic Ocean are becoming more and more frequent.

Is there a site that is keeping frequency/strength storm data?

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on March 16, 2017, 01:04:54 AM
Central Arctic sector between North Pole and Laptev Sea shows very aggressive break up of sea ice with sun now increasingly warming dark leads: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden)&t=2017-03-15&z=3&v=-255904.37716371025,955877.8613822464,6239.622836289753,1120997.8613822465
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 16, 2017, 01:15:20 AM
No doubt about movement in the Fram.
13th-15th
CLICK IMAGE
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 16, 2017, 01:21:46 AM
No doubt about movement in the Fram.
13th-15th
CLICK IMAGE
(http://)

Those are some pretty old looking does saying bye bye...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 16, 2017, 01:23:58 AM
No doubt about movement in the Fram.
13th-15th
CLICK IMAGE
(http://)

this looks like the output of a rock grinder, except for the white instead of grey :-( those big floes must be quite thick from the locks and considering they were not yet entirely grinded.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Archimid on March 16, 2017, 01:38:49 AM
That big floe turning the corner seems to move a longer distance from 14 to 15 than from 13 to 14. I wonder if that is an artifact of the images or is it actual acceleration of the floe.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 16, 2017, 02:47:57 AM
That big floe turning the corner seems to move a longer distance from 14 to 15 than from 13 to 14. I wonder if that is an artifact of the images or is it actual acceleration of the floe.

It looks like the wind had picked up about that time, so it probably actually accelerated.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: tzupancic on March 16, 2017, 05:26:01 AM
Regarding the discussion of fundamental drivers of the observed Arctic Sea Ice melt, thanks to Archimid for establishing a separate thread to discuss emerging scientific insight into the fundamentals of the melt.

Those who are interested should check out the new "Arctic Sea Ice Changes: Natural Variation vs human influence" discussion thread.

The discussion begins with the paper published this week in Nature Climate Change "Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice"

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on March 16, 2017, 05:47:49 AM
But wasn't kind of obvious from these past years?

The response to your rhetorical interrogatory is tentatively in the affirmative, with the caveat that the imputation of any causal relationship between export of ice from the arctic and subsequent paucity of arctic ice is necessarily to be regarded as speculative until recognized in an adequately polysyllabic exposition of...

(As Basil Fawlty would have it)

...Mastermind special subject - "The Bleedin' Obvious!"


...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 16, 2017, 06:23:05 AM
The ice disposal at work.
Notice how the whole front drops back toward the end of the run.  10th-15th
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: oren on March 16, 2017, 07:24:25 AM
The Kara retreat has started to materialize. And that red stain (the PIOMAS blob) is still inching its way towards the Fram and oblivion.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 16, 2017, 08:10:41 AM
Is there an artefact or is the ice in Kara and Laptev "thickening"? Look at the color change between those days, the 10-15.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 16, 2017, 08:21:52 AM
Is there an artefact or is the ice in Kara and Laptev "thickening"? Look at the color change between those days, the 10-15.
I don't see it LMV; at least, I don't see anything that stands out enough to my eye to consider it significant.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 16, 2017, 08:42:16 AM
Cloud effects? 
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 16, 2017, 08:54:13 AM
Jdallen: the ice color change from a green tone to a more yellow one, which should imply a thickening of the ice. This is more visible for the 14-15th in the sequence. As DrTskoul says, it could be due to cloud effects which seems likely as I have hard to see that the ice would thicken that much over a few days. Of course, maybe compaction and strong winds might do the trick but doesn't seem likely.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 16, 2017, 10:46:12 AM
The ECMWF has entered into loop mode and predicts for day 10 another bomb storm entering the Barents and displaying similar circulation to the current one about to mess things up.
Everything can change but worth keeping an eye.
In the Pacific side all seems quiet and nice except for the fact that ACNFS is foreseeing an activation of Bering inflow, probably due to persistent lows over Aleutians (will post animation later)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 16, 2017, 10:58:31 AM
956mb over brittle ,thin ice??? Surely this cannot be a good start to the season!

Temps may not be melt season temps but the lowest of the winter temps are now behind us so the ice will be starting to warm up along with the rest of the basin.

My concerns are that we have changed from a system where we had 'down time' over winter ( and could leave the forum until melt season began) to a system where winter is more important than the weathers over summer?

If we see another dreadful summer for melt yet see ice finish in the bottom three then will it not signal we have flipped into a very different beastie over the Arctic Basin?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 16, 2017, 11:50:53 AM
You have to remember also what that warmer water in the Barents is capable of doing when it gets disturbed. It has been building back up, waiting to get moved around again.


BTW, here is a look at SMOS.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 16, 2017, 12:16:12 PM
I wouldn't count with that 956mb low... just mentioned to keep an eye. It is still in fantasy-land. Peobably the general circulation will hold though.
The 970mb storm just hitting the door is nasty enough
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on March 16, 2017, 12:57:09 PM
I think this melt season will be the lowest on record.

My head tells me it will easily break the record but then when i read all your posts on things i cant even begin to understand i feel a slight break of the record will happen.

Maybe the mins will just get slightly lower each year for a decade or so.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 16, 2017, 03:21:07 PM
Look how tight the Isobars are over the Fram!
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 16, 2017, 03:43:27 PM
Weather-forecast.com says conditions favourable for export for next 4 to 6 days.

Never a dull monent.

Not surprisingly, ice drift estimate for tomorrow, Mar 17. There are also strong 15 - 18 m/s winds east of Svalbard, so export in two places.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on March 16, 2017, 04:10:07 PM
That big floe turning the corner seems to move a longer distance from 14 to 15 than from 13 to 14. I wonder if that is an artifact of the images or is it actual acceleration of the floe.
Venturi effect?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: JimboOmega on March 16, 2017, 10:11:30 PM
Meanwhile,  the heat is on... cci-reanalyzer shows the lowest anomaly to be reached for the Arctic in its current forecast window is +2.8C. 

This is especially true near Novaya Zemlya, over the Kara Sea temperatures look to be frequently above freezing and not really getting much below.

So ice pumping down the Fram and heat pumping up the eastern Atlantic side...  Perfect conditions for the start of spring.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Williams on March 17, 2017, 12:48:01 AM
<snip, you're not paying attention>
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Cid_Yama on March 17, 2017, 03:33:25 AM
Antarctic Sea Ice is doing what the Arctic sea ice did this last fall and winter.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_s_running_mean_amsr2_regular.png
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 17, 2017, 03:48:55 AM
Antarctic Sea Ice is doing what the Arctic sea ice did this last fall and winter.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_s_running_mean_amsr2_regular.png

The ol' insolation batteries got charged a little too well. I look for it to happen again in the Arctic later this year to a greater degree than last year. You can already see the heat building in the oceans surrounding the Arctic by looking at the anomalies at high lats. on both sides. Will get worse when more waters are open.
                                                                                                                               

What do the failing predictive models have to do with the melting season?

That has been moved to another thread already, thanks to Archimid, who is becoming quite a useful contributor on this forum.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 17, 2017, 10:41:37 AM
Meanwhile,  the heat is on... cci-reanalyzer shows the lowest anomaly to be reached for the Arctic in its current forecast window is +2.8C. 

This is especially true near Novaya Zemlya, over the Kara Sea temperatures look to be frequently above freezing and not really getting much below.

So ice pumping down the Fram and heat pumping up the eastern Atlantic side...  Perfect conditions for the start of spring.

Latest GFS - maximum anomaly per day until next Friday. FDD (Freezing Degree Days for 80N+) anomaly is now about 1,540 since September (last year it was about 950 at the same time).
I guess it's going to 1,600 level next week.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: rboyd on March 17, 2017, 06:36:30 PM
My understanding is that the anomaly tends to be higher in winter and less in the summer. Will be interesting to see if it persists at a high level during the summer, would reflect the increased albedo effect of more open water earlier in the season (versus the offsetting increased cloud cover assumed in many of the climate models).
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Archimid on March 17, 2017, 06:49:08 PM
My understanding is that the anomaly tends to be higher in winter and less in the summer.
Yes, but a persistent 4C+ anomaly through the whole winter is new to the data set. Also summer temperatures are limited by the ice. The anomalies during summer will not be this high until sufficient ice is gone.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: rboyd on March 17, 2017, 08:22:01 PM
Could start to happen locally on the periphery, like the Kara Sea, ESS, and Beaufort, if the ice there goes early enough in the season. Would that then set up some significant temperature differentials with the ice covered areas?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: JimboOmega on March 17, 2017, 09:01:28 PM
My understanding is that the anomaly tends to be higher in winter and less in the summer.
Yes, but a persistent 4C+ anomaly through the whole winter is new to the data set. Also summer temperatures are limited by the ice. The anomalies during summer will not be this high until sufficient ice is gone.

Right; ice and water together have to have a temperature around 0C; pumping more heat in just turns more of the ice to water. So summer anomalies can't really go up until the ice all melts.

For this reason, in the summer, we tend to look more at the 925 hPa (or is it mb? I forget) temperature forecasts, to get a sense of the warmth being transported in. By not looking right at the surface we can see how anomalously warm it is.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 18, 2017, 12:08:14 AM
Could start to happen locally on the periphery, like the Kara Sea, ESS, and Beaufort, if the ice there goes early enough in the season. Would that then set up some significant temperature differentials with the ice covered areas?

as long as there is ice, temps won't go much above zero in that region, it's the laws of physics at play here and it has been well explained in this forum while i don't remember exactly where it was, perhaps you gonna find it with the help of the search function, else google is your friend :-)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: rboyd on March 18, 2017, 06:05:35 AM
Thanks for the great responses!
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 18, 2017, 10:36:44 AM
The ECMWF has entered into loop mode and predicts for day 10 another bomb storm entering the Barents and displaying similar circulation to the current one about to mess things up.
Everything can change but worth keeping an eye.

Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) is showing even higher max anomalies for Arctic.
Warmest areas Laptev, Kara and ESS. Also pressure 963 forecasted near Svalbard and FJL for next Saturday. Of course, it's pretty far, but still worth watching.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: CalamityCountdown on March 18, 2017, 04:33:37 PM
Shouldn't the title of this thread be "The 2017 Melting Equilibrium Month"? Based on the NSIDC 5 day average, it appears that "melting season" did not get started until about the 27th during the last  two years
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 18, 2017, 07:05:57 PM
Yet another Arctic cyclone drops below 970 hPa MSLP. The synoptic chart is from 1800Z last night:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-219974 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-219974)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 18, 2017, 07:10:31 PM
How many cyclones below 970 have we had this winter? I 've lost count...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 18, 2017, 07:18:40 PM
Shouldn't the title of this thread be "The 2017 Melting Equilibrium Month"?

Traditionally we only have a "freezing" and then a "melting" thread each year.

YMMV of course, but I reckon the loss of over 200k in two days could reasonably be described as "melting". Mind you this thread was started quite a while ago!
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 18, 2017, 08:19:40 PM
Where that intense low is currently sitting and where the ice drift map is showing rapid ice movement, there is nothing resembling true ice pack. All of the ice under this low is highly fragmented and less than 2 meters thick, much of it only 1 meter thick. With warm water intrusion from the Barents, a nearly nonexistent halocline, this summer on the Atlantic side could be horrifying.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: rboyd on March 18, 2017, 08:30:03 PM
Unrelenting positive anomalies on the Russian side of the Arctic to March 26th from climate reanalyzer, not good for thickening the ice. Periods of near zero and above in the Kara Sea.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 18, 2017, 09:04:24 PM
1000hpa warm air intrusion varying between +1oC and +2.2oC.
Starting now(left side) progressing in 3 hour intervals, left to right, and top down.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Clenchie on March 18, 2017, 09:46:21 PM
Thanks Tigertown, a picture paints a thousand words.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 19, 2017, 04:38:16 AM
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 19, 2017, 06:06:06 AM
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.
(http://)
With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.
Kara otoh is going south pretty quickly this year.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 19, 2017, 06:15:19 AM
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.
(http://)

With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.
Kara otoh is going south pretty quickly this year.

Oh, is the River Ob already in spring and flowing fast to Kara sea? The bay there could be an indication of that. The zero-degree fresh water from the river taking a toll on the -1 degree ice on the bay, possibly? The bay is somewhat brackish : www.researchgate.net/figure/283097363_fig3_Figure-4-Left-salinity-PSU-of-Kara-Sea-and-the-Gulf-of-Ob-in-summer-climatic-atlas (http://www.researchgate.net/figure/283097363_fig3_Figure-4-Left-salinity-PSU-of-Kara-Sea-and-the-Gulf-of-Ob-in-summer-climatic-atlas)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 19, 2017, 06:40:30 AM
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.
With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.

Something changed around the 11th. Maybe that the ice is such slush that it is moving and compacting elsewhere with the wind.
Compare the 10th(left) with the 18th(right)
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 19, 2017, 07:40:35 AM
As we speak, warm winds have reached to Laptev Sea. Temp +1.1 °C and wind 13 m/s.
That is 9:00 UTC according to earth.nullschool.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 19, 2017, 09:44:32 AM
Latest GFS shows higher anomalies for Arctic persist (numbers are now average per day).
Warmest areas Laptev, Kara and ESS. Kara and Laptev seem to be constantly "warm" until next Sunday.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 19, 2017, 10:15:48 AM
The retreat south of Novaya Zemlya is caused by winds and is bound to continue given the current forecast, with lows stationed over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

I've just called the maximum (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/03/lowest-maximum-on-record-again.html) on the ASIB, and posted an animation of the ClimateReanalyzer GFS temp anomaly forecast for the coming week:

(http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d26c43f4970c-800wi)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Red on March 19, 2017, 11:23:25 AM
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.

With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.


Something changed around the 11th. Maybe that the ice is such slush that it is moving and compacting elsewhere with the wind.
Compare the 10th(left) with the 18th(right)
(http://)

 The Canadian ice service (CIS) shows mostly old ice and medium FYI in the western CAA.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56SD/20170313180000_WIS56SD_0009363745.pdf (http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56SD/20170313180000_WIS56SD_0009363745.pdf)
 With the eastern CAA showing mostly medium FYI and some old ice showing up in the western edge.
The CIS definition of old ice: Sea ice which has survived at least one summer's melt.
glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS55SD/20170313180000_WIS55SD_0009363789.pdf

PS I can't seem to figure out how to capture the image.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: FishOutofWater on March 19, 2017, 01:41:20 PM
The retreat south of Novaya Zemlya is caused by winds and is bound to continue given the current forecast, with lows stationed over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

I've just called the maximum ([url]http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/03/lowest-maximum-on-record-again.html[/url]) on the ASIB, and posted an animation of the ClimateReanalyzer GFS temp anomaly forecast for the coming week:

([url]http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d26c43f4970c-800wi[/url])


The U.S. CFS model, the long range extension of the GFS predicts this atmospheric circulation pattern will continue through the spring so that north Siberian temperatures will average well above normal for months. Apparently, the ocean heat patterns are driving this general circulation pattern.

This portends a catastrophic summer for sea ice and Siberian permafrost.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Buddy on March 19, 2017, 02:25:43 PM
This portends a catastrophic summer for sea ice and Siberian permafrost.

Eastern continental Europe....+....northwestern Russia has had a warm spring.  Someone else has already made posts of the German drought this winter and spring.

The risk of SIGNIFICANT wildfires in northern Russia and especially northwestern Russia (including Moscow) is there are waiting.  The conditions are ripe.....now all that is needed is the right (wrong) weather patterns.

Additional wildfires.....like those in 2010.....is going to feed the already ravenous feedback effects.   We continue to take the "next step" into what everyone here KNEW is happening.  The only thing we don't know each year is (1) where is it going to be bad this year, and (2) how bad is bad going to be THIS YEAR?

Arctic ice likely heading for a new record low.  How low?  Is it going to be 5% below the 2012 record....or 15% below the prior record low?

Next decade likely to be "eye-popping" on several fronts:   Ice, temps, wildfires, etc.

The next week along the northern Russian coast could be an opening dagger for the ice melt season this year.

Nighttime temps in Russia are remaining high.....with a continued lack of "new record low temps".  The new record high temps haven't been incredibly high.....it's the LACK of new record low temps....they are becoming an endangered species.  Russia has 2 (two) new record low temps in the country so far this month.  They have 5 months THIS DECADE when they have had 10 or fewer new record low daily temps for any single month....and those have come over the last 40 months.  The entire decade of 2000 - 2009 had only 2 instances where a single month had 10 or few new record low temps. 

Going to be a crazy climate year....and a crazy climate decade.  Just make sure you remind people who has been lying over the past 10 - 30 years as this continues to unfold.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: FishOutofWater on March 19, 2017, 04:05:00 PM
The atmosphere is efficiently removing the cold air from the Arctic and eliminating the cold by ramming it over the northwest Pacific and the NW Atlantic. This has happened because the Pacific decadal oscillation has shifted to the warm phase and the overturning circulation in the north Atlantic has gone into its more active mode. This PDO (or IPO) pattern expands the jet stream southward over the Pacific ocean. It also brings more heat from the Atlantic to central and northern Europe.

This all adds up to a warm early spring for northern Eurasia. And once in place it will be amplified by early snow loss and increasing heat uptake by the bare ground and open ocean.

Yes, expect a bad fire season in Russia and Siberia to start early and for the soot to amplify the rate of snow melt and ice loss.

Here are a few panels showing what I described above from ECMWF model forecast of the circulation and temperature patterns the next 10 days. Thanks to Levi at Tropicaltidbits.com.

Note the general aspects of the circulation pattern will continue all spring if the Euro and American models are getting it right. And I'm pretty sure they are because they are picking up something huge - a strong jet stream and extreme ocean heat in the north Atlantic and subpolar seas.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 19, 2017, 04:48:01 PM
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.
With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.

Something changed around the 11th. Maybe that the ice is such slush that it is moving and compacting elsewhere with the wind.
Compare the 10th(left) with the 18th(right)
(http://)
As has  been pointed out by others care has to be taken when interpreting the AMSR charts.
The attached image is IR band 31 https://go.nasa.gov/2nSrmIT (https://go.nasa.gov/2nSrmIT) of 19th and there is no sign of openings or recent openings in the Parry channel area. South of Banks island the purple hue shows thinner ice (warmer surface) this is what ice looks which has formed in the last weeks. Open water would show in orange in my colour scale setting 227 -273K
Talking about "slush" there has no credibility.
Again the appearance of lowered ice concentration coincides with clouds.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 19, 2017, 04:49:10 PM
I can't seem to figure out how to capture the image.


Try using the .GIF versions instead of the .PDFs

Here's the one you mention:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/)

Here's how the brown bits got there:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Red on March 19, 2017, 04:57:30 PM
I can't seem to figure out how to capture the image.


Try using the .GIF versions instead of the .PDFs

Here's the one you mention:

[url]http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/[/url] ([url]http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/[/url])

Here's how the brown bits got there:

[url]http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/[/url] ([url]http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/[/url])

Thanks Jim I'll give that  a go next I post.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 19, 2017, 05:34:37 PM
Talking about "slush" there has no credibility

Ok, slush was probably an overstatement. However, the shape that the ice is in for this time of year has made it more mobile and at the whim of wind and current. When it compacts in one place, the concentration goes down in another. I don't recall saying anything about open water. The concentration went down by a percentage*, which I am sure many including myself thought to be worth mentioning. It shouldn't do that so easily right now. It simply isn't going to hold together once it really comes under any pressure, and then it will be "slush."


* In that one area after the 10th of the month, lasting until the current date.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on March 19, 2017, 05:34:55 PM
The retreat south of Novaya Zemlya is caused by winds and is bound to continue given the current forecast, with lows stationed over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

I've just called the maximum ([url]http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/03/lowest-maximum-on-record-again.html[/url]) on the ASIB, and posted an animation of the ClimateReanalyzer GFS temp anomaly forecast for the coming week:

([url]http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d26c43f4970c-800wi[/url])


The U.S. CFS model, the long range extension of the GFS predicts this atmospheric circulation pattern will continue through the spring so that north Siberian temperatures will average well above normal for months. Apparently, the ocean heat patterns are driving this general circulation pattern.

This portends a catastrophic summer for sea ice and Siberian permafrost.


I wonder if enhanced Siberian snowcover is playing a part in this? Vastly more open Arctic Ocean = +++Siberian snowfall, but even when we see temps average much colder than normal over parts of the region as we did last fall, that is derived from anomalously *early* snowcover and not radiative cooling.

Perhaps the feedback resulting in increasing NHEM autumnal snowcover (especially in Eurasia) contributes directly to the ++++anomalies seen over Siberia during spring/summer normally? The insulating and anomalously thick snowpack must mitigate the ability of permafrost to reform, perhaps locking in some of the heat accumulated by the ground during summer as well, resulting in a ready-to-bake northern tier of Russia as soon as the snowcover melts in the spring.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 19, 2017, 05:47:32 PM
This would by my thinking too bbr2314?

I might even be tempted into thinking that parts of ESS/Kara/Barentsz had some pretty slushy surface conditions over October that may have seeded freezing over summer warmed waters locking that heat in too?

If we lose the W.Siberian snow as early as other years then all it will have served to do is rip the vortex off its keel and throw arctic plunges around the lower latitudes emptying the basin of cold for WAA to replace.

In other words it is another positive feedback even if it involves 'Snow'..........
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Archimid on March 19, 2017, 06:21:16 PM
Look at the snow cover graphs on ASIG Link: https://www.ccin.ca/home/ccw/snow/current (https://www.ccin.ca/home/ccw/snow/current)

The first two are the Snow Cover Extent for North America and Eurasia. Notice that they are trending low but within variation.

The second two are of the Snow Water Equivalent, which I interpret as the thickness of the snow pack. Notice that is trending very high.

 Even if there is thicker snow cover, the snow extent favors lower albedo.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 19, 2017, 06:27:41 PM
That Snow Water Equivalent graphs has been trending high for as long as I can remember. I'm not sure, but I think there's something wrong with it.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 19, 2017, 07:25:22 PM
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Red on March 19, 2017, 07:51:16 PM
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
And windier, the denser it's packed the more water it will represent when melted.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on March 19, 2017, 09:32:10 PM
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
Agreed, you can see a map of anomalies as well:

(https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 19, 2017, 09:46:22 PM
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.

Agree warmer conditions, more moisture in atmosphere, heavier precipitation seems pretty well established.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Williams on March 19, 2017, 09:56:14 PM
I wonder if enhanced Siberian snowcover is playing a part in this?
Do you know the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead?  ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosencrantz_and_Guildenstern_Are_Dead )
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Williams on March 19, 2017, 10:00:44 PM
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
And windier, the denser it's packed the more water it will represent when melted.
I have to agree with this line of thought.  For now it is Warm Arctic, Cold Continents....complete with snow.  I do not see new ice sheets in our immediate future.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 19, 2017, 10:15:02 PM
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.

Which is why I don't trust that Snow Water Equivalent graph. There's no way there's so much snow in the Himalayas, all of the time.

Of course, there's more precipitation, and so more snow extent and snow depth, but not so much to make that trend line get off the charts. There are quite a few zones with negative anomalies as well.

But, anyway, it's a conclusion I reached last year or the year before. I may be wrong.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 19, 2017, 10:48:55 PM
@Neven
It might be worth looking into, as there have been so many severe avalanches in that area lately. I would google it myself, but I am on the way out to run errands.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 19, 2017, 11:37:43 PM
@Neven
It might be worth looking into, as there have been so many severe avalanches in that area lately. I would google it myself, but I am on the way out to run errands.

Yes, it might be worth looking into, but that purple area where the Himalayas are, has been on that map for as long as I can remember.

And another funny thing: Here in Austria they say there have been more avalanches in the Alps this year, because snowfall was below average. But I don't know if that's true.

Either way, whether there's a HUGE Snow Water Equivalent or not, I'm quite sure that it will all melt quite quickly. And that's the bottom line.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Red on March 20, 2017, 12:08:54 AM
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.


Which is why I don't trust that Snow Water Equivalent graph. There's no way there's so much snow in the Himalayas, all of the time.

Of course, there's more precipitation, and so more snow extent and snow depth, but not so much to make that trend line get off the charts. There are quite a few zones with negative anomalies as well.

But, anyway, it's a conclusion I reached last year or the year before. I may be wrong.

Not sure if this is any help, the paper is paywalled, however it may shed some light on the subject of snow water equivalent. The locations of the test sites may play a bigger roll +/- in our new climate state then they traditionally have.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425711003166Abstract (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425711003166Abstract)
The key variable describing global seasonal snow cover is snow water equivalent (SWE). However, reliable information on the hemispheric scale variability of SWE is lacking because traditional methods such as interpolation of ground-based measurements and stand-alone algorithms applied to space-borne observations are highly uncertain with respect to the spatial distribution of snow mass and its evolution. In this paper, an algorithm assimilating synoptic weather station data on snow depth with satellite passive microwave radiometer data is applied to produce a 30-year-long time-series of seasonal SWE for the northern hemisphere. This data set is validated using independent SWE reference data from Russia, the former Soviet Union, Finland and Canada. The validation of SWE time-series indicates overall strong retrieval performance with root mean square errors below 40 mm for cases when SWE < 150 mm. Retrieval uncertainty increases when SWE is above this threshold. The SWE estimates are also compared with results obtained by a typical stand-alone satellite passive microwave algorithm. This comparison demonstrates the benefits of the newly developed assimilation approach. Additionally, the trends and inter-annual variability of northern hemisphere snow mass during the era of satellite passive microwave measurements are shown.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 20, 2017, 09:21:28 AM
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows following anomalies for Arctic until next Monday. Kara, Laptev and ESS warmest. Also ice seems to be pretty fragmented between Svalbard and North Pole after non-stop export at high speed.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: dosibl on March 20, 2017, 03:29:06 PM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 20, 2017, 03:48:49 PM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?


5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!

1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/)

2. Ditto the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

3. Ditto the Laptev and East Siberian Seas

4. How many (and how deep, warm, wet) spring cyclones spin around the Arctic Ocean

5. How the snow melt progresses across Canada, Alaska and Siberia

Next please!
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 20, 2017, 04:43:20 PM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?


5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!

1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:

[url]http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/[/url] ([url]http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/[/url])



Suscrbe all points, emphasizing this one because for the time being weather is being favorable to Beaufort sea ice (relative to last year) .All can change in April obviously
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: be cause on March 20, 2017, 04:49:42 PM
Hi Dosibl .. I would take a look at Cryosphere Today .. the site no longer updates , but the 'comparison' feature allows you to look at and compare the ice cover on any date/s in the satellite era .
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 20, 2017, 04:58:26 PM
the plunge begins:

NSIDC SIE daily values

2017,    03,  12,     14.403
2017,    03,  13,     14.370
2017,    03,  14,     14.424
2017,    03,  15,     14.407
2017,    03,  16,     14.273
2017,    03,  17,     14.242
2017,    03,  18,     14.178
2017,    03,  19,     14.180
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 20, 2017, 05:31:06 PM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?


5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!

1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:

[url]http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/[/url] ([url]http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/[/url])

2. Ditto the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

3. Ditto the Laptev and East Siberian Seas

4. How many (and how deep, warm, wet) spring cyclones spin around the Arctic Ocean

5. How the snow melt progresses across Canada, Alaska and Siberia

Next please!

I'd add:
In 3 months we'll start looking at melt ponds in the Central Arctic Basin (CAB) and wonder when the Northern Passage and NW Passage will open. Oh yes, and when will the news media notice how bad things are getting.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: theoldinsane on March 20, 2017, 05:52:55 PM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

After a couple of years as mainly a lurker in this amazing forum I have hopefully learned something. My take is this:

1 Do expect the unexpected (upside or downside or flat) and don´t compare to previous years

2 Don´t do any predictions about the minimum before July

3 Realise that the Arctic ice is in a very VERY bad shape compare to 20 years ago (or even many thousands year ago)

Some says it´s all about the weather, but if the declining Arctic ice is the culprit of the weather then there is a viscious circle caused by humans emissions of GHG. There is natural variance but those are getting bigger as GHG emissions continues if I got it right.

https://hubpages.com/literature/The-Two-Degree-World

So it can happen that this years minimum will show up as the 5:th or 6:th or 7:th lowest as well as a Blue Ocean Event. I don´t know. Only time will tell.

This is both exiting and very VERY scary IMHO
 
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: oren on March 20, 2017, 06:08:14 PM
dosibl, the most telling areas will be the Beaufort as already been said, compared to the last few years to see wether it's early or late, and the Barents/Svalbard/Atlantic front on a qualitative basis. And not on a daily basis, PIOMAS.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 20, 2017, 06:11:40 PM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.
Lots of good suggestions from others.

My favorites:

Sea surface temperatures
General dispersion and concentration
Circulation and transport of ice in the pack
Cloud cover and albedo
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 20, 2017, 06:12:24 PM

2 Don´t do any predictions about the minimum before July


I was just about to do that and happily forget asif totally after that.

I'll try to follow the spring in the big Siberian/Canadian river areas and later hoping to see some ice breaker save Santa Claus from drowning.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jontenoy on March 20, 2017, 06:15:15 PM
Hi All
This is my first blog on your wonderful site which I have been watching for nearly a year.
Today NASA announced that Greeland and Antarctic are losing 400 gigatons of ice / year. I have just calculated this as giving 2.38 mm / year height increase. Water thermal expansion + glacial and other surface ice would be in addition to this (also aquafier surface pumping). Does this seem a bit high ?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 20, 2017, 06:26:30 PM
Jontenoy, this thread is for the Arctic sea ice melting season specifically. You need to ask the question elsewhere in the Greenland or Antarctica boards.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: LRC1962 on March 20, 2017, 08:13:46 PM
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 20, 2017, 08:28:09 PM
dosibl, the most telling areas will be the Beaufort

this is based on the past while it's exactly possible that the final attack on sea-ice from now on can (will) come from any (unexpected) side and chances are high that we're in for more surprises.

what i'm trying to say, sorry if i got that wrong, is, that even should the beaufort be ice-coverd in may for once (not saying it will) most ice can be eliminated from the the atlantic side and exported down fram while at he same time a bit of garlic press down CAA et voilà, almost nothing left while the rest (in this example that would be beaufort) will melt out between may and september anyways. so the key is the CAB all above 80 degrees north, the more of that goes, the lower the minimum. IMO there is no doubt that we wont' even see any kind of "ARMS" or other significant reminders below 75 degrees north this year. game on, let's see.

this is just my take on it, not saying it will or has to be, just drawing a picture (like every year) and after all
a lot became true in the past ;)

i'm looking forward to the extreme takes of "BBR" LOL.

the season will be (already is) very interesting in any case
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on March 20, 2017, 08:58:16 PM
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.


Which is why I don't trust that Snow Water Equivalent graph. There's no way there's so much snow in the Himalayas, all of the time.

Of course, there's more precipitation, and so more snow extent and snow depth, but not so much to make that trend line get off the charts. There are quite a few zones with negative anomalies as well.

But, anyway, it's a conclusion I reached last year or the year before. I may be wrong.

This graph purportedly excludes mountain snows:

(http://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/fmi_swe_tracker.jpg)

I definitely agree it is difficult to ascertain the veracity of those Himalayan purples but a part of me thinks it is not so unlikely; it seems that any region that has sufficient latitude or elevation is now seeing more general ++snow anomalies, so perhaps with the sheer height of the Himalayas, they are a natural bulwark against AGW in that even as the snow line may or may not be rising, the amount of snow falling *above* the line is now increasing seemingly on an annual basis.

It is very important to note that *if* that is the case, changing snowcover's impact on global albedo becomes much more drastic. Increased NHEM fall snowcover is impactful on albedo but its implications aren't nearly as drastic as a blob of anomalous snowcover at a relatively low latitude that persists through spring and possibly summer. Even if the % of the Himalayas that are covered in July or August increases from 5-10% to 20-30%, that is a very sizable amount of solar input that is now being thrown off at the height of NHEM summer.

I am straying a bit far here but I wonder if the above is linked to the failure of the QBO... if there is any major wildcard besides the Arctic that has not yet been identified, I do believe it is the Himalayan snowpack, and with its location relatively close to the Equator, the impacts of changing snowfall on the planet's highest mountain range have the potential to be *very* sizable.

I am adding in the below which I found from a paper indicating summer extent is indeed increasing across the Western Himalayas quite dramatically while falling slightly over central/eastern (for large net gain). Any additional studies/links would be much appreciated!

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260939503_11-Year_Variability_of_Summer_Snow_Cover_Extent_over_Himalayas (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260939503_11-Year_Variability_of_Summer_Snow_Cover_Extent_over_Himalayas)

Snow is a component of the cryosphere which has played an important role in Earth energy balance. Northern hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) has steadily decreased since 1980 and in recently the trend of SCE is sharply decreased. Because Himalaya region's shows most significant changes except for the Arctic, we analyzed this region for SCE. We used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow product from 2001 to 2011 in august. Analysis was made by considering some conditions (region, elevation, longitude and climate) which can affect the changes in SCE. The entire SCE in Himalaya for 11 years has steadily increased(+55,098 km2). Trends for SCE in western region has increased(+77,781km2), But trend for central and eastern have decreased -3,453 km2, -19,230km2, respectively. According to elevation increases, the ratio of snow in each study area is increased. In 30°N~35°N SCE shows increased trend, 27°N~28°N shows decreased trend. In tundra climate, trends for SCE are similar to regional analysis. whereas the result in tropical climate's trend was increased. these performed result shows different side for change of SCE depending on each condition. The result of this study were similar to the rapid decline of the northern hemisphere SCE area in recent. The result of this study can be used to help management to water budget in Central-Asia country located to Himalayas.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 20, 2017, 09:36:57 PM
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.

I wanted to reply to this but wasn't sure about doing so on this thread, for fear of derailing it, so I did so on the Open Thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost


Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 20, 2017, 10:53:14 PM
..... unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.

i mean this serious and just adding without wanting to be negative more than what i really believe, that said, we're beyond that already. even if we could stop pollution NOW immediately, the sh....t is already hitting the fan, it's too late to avoid it while we can and should reduce the worst to the unavoidable bad which means that there is good reason to make any effort we can ( has to start on individual level, person by person changing life style, priorities and attitude ) to reduce our environmental footprints, else it could be worse than even we believe.

so to make this clear, i agree with what you're heading at, it's just important to call things by their real name and in this case the real name is that we cannot revert the process in time, not in theory and by no means in practice but we can do our best which of course we as mankind are lightyears away of doing unfortunately.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: dosibl on March 20, 2017, 11:42:16 PM
Thanks for the tips, plenty of things to keep an eye on.

Definitely interested in watching the Beaufort sea, comparing March 20th across the past few years shows how stark the difference is.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: charles_oil on March 20, 2017, 11:53:50 PM

I think those three graphs definitely qualify for a WOW ... buckle up ... response !

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 21, 2017, 12:13:03 AM
A better look at the Laptev.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Michael J on March 21, 2017, 12:26:13 AM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

This is my fourth year and my advice is don't judge. It only takes a few weeks of the right/wrong kind of weather to turn a bad/good year into a good/bad year.

Also even the seasoned observers get surprised, over the short time I've been watching it the melt has changed. In the first year it was all melt ponds and large cracks the the ice cap seemed solid. Now (from a distance) it is more mush and can flow with the winds and currents.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Cate on March 21, 2017, 12:36:36 AM
New post today from Robertscribbler: "Frailest Ever Winter Sea Ice Facing a Cruel, Cruel Summer."

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/20/frailest-ever-winter-sea-ice-facing-a-cruel-cruel-summer/
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Hyperion on March 21, 2017, 01:41:53 AM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

My quick and off the cuff list might be as follows:
1: What real world empirical  data can we trust regarding the state of the halocline. -once the besieged lower salinity surface waters are exported and corrupted by salt enrichment from the winter there can be no winter refreeze.
2: How much water vapour is smoking in to the zone on unforeseen atmospheric circulation systemic reformations. - as it phase transitions from vapour to liquid or even more so importantly from liquid to solid it emits photons in all directions, most importantly downwards, that are precisely the frequency for the reverse transition of water molecules in the reverse homily to elevate their energy level via a melt or boil.
3: How much export transport of ice out of the basin is current and ongoing, what salt/ water ratio is part of this equation,  with implications obvious for (1)

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 21, 2017, 09:23:30 AM
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows following anomalies for Arctic until next Tuesday.
Although anomalies will go down next week, Kara, Laptev and ESS remain warmer than usual.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Williams on March 21, 2017, 12:17:39 PM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

My quick and off the cuff list might be as follows:
1: What real world empirical  data can we trust regarding the state of the halocline. -once the besieged lower salinity surface waters are exported and corrupted by salt enrichment from the winter there can be no winter refreeze.
2: How much water vapour is smoking in to the zone on unforeseen atmospheric circulation systemic reformations. - as it phase transitions from vapour to liquid or even more so importantly from liquid to solid it emits photons in all directions, most importantly downwards, that are precisely the frequency for the reverse transition of water molecules in the reverse homily to elevate their energy level via a melt or boil.
3: How much export transport of ice out of the basin is current and ongoing, what salt/ water ratio is part of this equation,  with implications obvious for (1)
I have to agree totally with this list, and I had not considered the implications of ice export for the fresh-water lens before.

I'll be watching mostly the DMI 80N, and the reasons Hyperion gave are the reasons I'll be watching.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 21, 2017, 02:16:13 PM
New post today from Robertscribbler: "Frailest Ever Winter Sea Ice Facing a Cruel, Cruel Summer."

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/20/frailest-ever-winter-sea-ice-facing-a-cruel-cruel-summer/

Neven and the sea ice observers over at The Arctic Sea Ice blog produced the following graph depicting what is all-too-likely to be a 2017 in which the sea ice extent maximum just hit another consecutive annual record low:

(2015, 2016 and 2017 were three consecutive record low winter maximum years for sea ice extent in a row. Image by Deeenngee and The Arctic Sea Ice Blog.)

Neven, who is one of the world’s top sea ice analysts,

;D
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 21, 2017, 02:36:33 PM
I had to laugh too.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 21, 2017, 03:04:58 PM
SMOS 18th-20th
CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Ajpope85 on March 21, 2017, 03:43:59 PM
SMOS 18th-20th
CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE
(http://)

Is what is going on around the north pole noise?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 21, 2017, 03:46:27 PM
I had to laugh too.  ;)

Snow White is disgusted. Blatant gender discrimination! How high is the glass ceiling in the Arctic?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 21, 2017, 03:55:14 PM
Isn't anybody going to cheer me up?

I've been stunned, through re-freeze, by the scale of the departure from an 'old' Arctic winter and now that most of the basin is 'visible' again on Sat I am further stunned by 'the look' of the ice!

Tell me I have it all wrong and the ice is all 'good ice' and not pathetic warm stuff that shatters into teeny bits when stressed?

When I look at the peripheral areas they are awash with swirls of froth from melt and we should not be even melting yet?

Persuade me ,anybody!, that I have it all wrong and that any high melt/high export behaviours over May/June will not leave us in a lot of trouble?

Reassure me that even if the basin soaks up nearly twice the energy it did last year we will not be blighted by extreme weathers over Autumn/early winter!

Anybody?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on March 21, 2017, 04:22:59 PM
Isn't anybody going to cheer me up?

I've been stunned, through re-freeze, by the scale of the departure from an 'old' Arctic winter and now that most of the basin is 'visible' again on Sat I am further stunned by 'the look' of the ice!

Tell me I have it all wrong and the ice is all 'good ice' and not pathetic warm stuff that shatters into teeny bits when stressed?

When I look at the peripheral areas they are awash with swirls of froth from melt and we should not be even melting yet?

Persuade me ,anybody!, that I have it all wrong and that any high melt/high export behaviours over May/June will not leave us in a lot of trouble?

Reassure me that even if the basin soaks up nearly twice the energy it did last year we will not be blighted by extreme weathers over Autumn/early winter!

Anybody?

"it was stripped, nearly to the bone, within hours"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_an_Elephant

(https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 21, 2017, 04:41:06 PM
A better look at the Laptev

Quite so. The Suomi "Nighttime Imagery" is a useful addition to the Worldview toolkit.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: oren on March 21, 2017, 05:33:22 PM
The elephant is all mashed up, and it seems a significant part of the PIOMAS "blob" will cross the point of no return this coming week. On the other hand, eyeballing Hycom it seems the Beaufort will be thickening/compacting, and that peripheral extent might benefit from dispersion.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 21, 2017, 08:06:38 PM
About 4-5 days from now the Arctic basin will most likely suffer a huge damage as a very favorable pattern for sea ice transport to the Atlantic "death row" will set up and linger for several days (see attached figure showing ECMWF 12z op run for the worst moment at +168h from now). Both GFS and ECMWF agrees about this solution even if ECMWFs solution is more severe for the sea ice.

We will most likely see thick ice make an exit to the Atlantic "death zone" which should give the upcoming melting season a decent start.

Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits/Lewi Cowan

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017032112/ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_8.png)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 21, 2017, 08:30:10 PM
Thanks LMV.
Too see the Atlantic currents break thru the ice is going to be an spectacle, a lot of thick ice already sitting on top of the Spitsbergen current for instance.
The forecast shows also high pressure system wanting to stay over Beaufort, let us see whether that realizes and especially persists, in which case it would be dangerous to Beaufort sea ice in April.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Buddy on March 21, 2017, 08:31:39 PM
We will most likely see thick ice make an exit to the Atlantic "death zone" which should give the upcoming melting season a decent start.

A decent start from a record low level = bad news....... :-\
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 21, 2017, 09:12:10 PM
Thanks LMV.
Too see the Atlantic currents break thru the ice is going to be an spectacle, a lot of thick ice already sitting on top of the Spitsbergen current for instance.
The forecast shows also high pressure system wanting to stay over Beaufort, let us see whether that realizes and especially persists, in which case it would be dangerous to Beaufort sea ice in April.

I'm concerned about H.P. systems and what we saw of them as we entered into sunspot min last time around? If H.P. builds across Russia , as it did in 2010, then this could link into Beaufort ,across ESS, leaving Atlantic lows running into Barentsz/Kara setting up high export off the end of the Trans Arctic Drift and into Fram whilst Beaufort roasts?

If we are also in the market for a return of the 'Perfect Melt Storm synoptic then we are done! large areas of the basin open up to sun by the start of July??? Does not sit well in my kind of mind!!!
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Iain on March 21, 2017, 10:42:42 PM
<no off-topic stuff in this thread, especially when related to Donnie Tiny Hands. Take it elsewhere; N.>
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 22, 2017, 04:24:04 AM
A couple areas that are noteworthy today.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 22, 2017, 07:20:33 AM
A couple areas that are noteworthy today.
(http://)
Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.  The Hudson starting to come apart is a little unexpected, and not at the same time.  Ice there in spite of recent cold temperatures has never had a chance to really set up and is quite a bit less solid and less thick than I've seen previously (which admittedly is only 5 years...).

Both breaking open will increase insolation uptake at a point very early in the melt season.

It implication of that from the Hudson is not that great.  Ice leaving the Kara is much more troublesome, as it will introduce heat at high latitude and eliminate ice which buttresses both the CAB and Laptev.  Admittedly the Barentsz is more important for the CAB, but it all works together, and without some integration we will see albedo reductions in the high arctic even with out melt ponds, as peripheral ice melts, and permits the main pack to disperse.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 22, 2017, 07:38:24 AM
EOSDIS image, aqua-modis, palette squashed to 230-255K, white to green/black (hottest)

The largest concentration of thickest MYI in the arctic lies in the center of the field of view, mostly between N. Greenland and the Pole.

It is fractured to a faire-the-well, poised to get pushed into the FJL/Svalbard/Fram killing ground, as it is pounded by the strong persistent westerlies roaring around the low pressure systems spinning into the CAB from the N. Atlantic.

Not a good way to start things.  I wouldn't expect to see ice like this until at least June.

(Edit: replaced the original screen shot as it turned the > 255K regions white.  Link:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day(opacity=0.44,palette=green_1,min=228.7,max=256.5,squash),Coastlines&t=2017-03-21&z=3&v=-1178165.0457067718,-1091186.6011562506,1607114.9542932282,338317.3988437494
)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 22, 2017, 09:22:18 AM
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows again bit higher anomalies until next Wednesday.
Kara, Laptev and ESS warmest, but heat also extends to North Pole and Beaufort.
From Sat - Wed strong winds over Barents Sea.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Sam on March 22, 2017, 09:24:15 AM
Jdallen,

This just really became apparent on the 21st.

https://go.nasa.gov/2nAl97Z

If you use the video tool and run it from the 13th to the present, it is clear that the transport of this ice to the Fram is already underway in a big way.  :o

It appears that we may see truly dramatic changes in the ice over the next week.

P.s.  I find it hard to imagine with this sort of ice movement having the Barneo ice camp happen at all this year.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 22, 2017, 09:48:58 AM
Your profile has been released, Sam.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 22, 2017, 10:22:11 AM
I find it hard to imagine with this sort of ice movement having the Barneo ice camp happen at all this year.


It seems the 'copters are grounded in Khatanga by weather at the moment:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905.msg107203.html#msg107203 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905.msg107203.html#msg107203)

Maybe the search for a solid floe will start tomorrow?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 22, 2017, 10:53:43 AM
Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.

That to me is the most noteworthy event in the Arctic right now. I've made an animation of the ice retreat south of Novaya Zemlya for the last 8 days:

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/zHlNH5e0kjoXlAt43WCuD386ZUFlszXd_q_OBL4lpZLVZJiAEQL0ttsGe3I2V-ZTimOodxWJ-c5vwuGg9PMHMb1LfMx2zW0E-Peqioi5oT177duWQV7rg0s35ZETne55RoDAdvMn7hYlNMUvWq5yRr6z5c9UZmc_C63gGraeQsrWk4prrzC8feBq9eJ3u7i3ace5auWmCtn8NbsSK6ZW1vmelqzqSTr6PyAFzFrObx5e6ssYFQdnQB2pP0axpLFpTxtMQtd_907DFsZdtt39wiBQCVj_XOG8fVOQ1q0MqNVAlrg7BO5i8V8r6gEzUPDTf28_Gh8ZREF-Jedc7V5_o_9vy3c7aOkLAaMrSXnEqer00Hw_UDi3sVl9QC_6MUxMkfk2_ncOdO3Id4LtxYhviEU3pI_VQInH9vjU5tGBltsTAFa9xnNRSF1M3htbca7NJ4A9gUpGLmaGwQLp1wj9mtW-5dU-GCwB4mPL4FTZDpcMedKru8JRmVzOJTbZIC92Bk6te79n05O-aS9djCC_CIXTpQWV1HxCktz7Hrej0Hov33yob-_mOZynJ0btQJ9yI2BRjzkzVyJ8_hBb7ICyPculitzi74pjtxsV7FM2Grk2V_CjpBRX=s340-no)

Given the current wind and temps forecast this is going to continue for at least another week.

And so the big question becomes: Will this freeze over again when the winds reverse?

It did back in 2011 and 2012, but this time the retreat will go further, I expect.

2011:

(http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b016302fdb454970d-pi)

2012:

(http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b016303d7f776970d-800wi)

When things closed up again, they stayed that way until mid-May. Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 22, 2017, 12:13:01 PM
Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.


I'd noticed that too Neven:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-220245 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-220245)

The Hamburg Uni processing pipeline seems to be gummed up at the moment, but this is how things looked yesterday:

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Adam Ash on March 22, 2017, 01:03:16 PM
Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.
That to me is the most noteworthy event in the Arctic right now. I've made an animation of the ice retreat south of Novaya Zemlya for the last 8 days:
...
When things closed up again, they stayed that way until mid-May. Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.

And its not just the retreat, its the loss of density of all the pack shown in the image...  wow!  Ten more days, the ice could be literally diving into summer!
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Juan C. García on March 22, 2017, 03:04:05 PM
Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.
That to me is the most noteworthy event in the Arctic right now.

I am also very concerned about the ice, north of Greenland:

The largest concentration of thickest MYI in the arctic lies in the center of the field of view, mostly between N. Greenland and the Pole.

It is fractured to a faire-the-well, poised to get pushed into the FJL/Svalbard/Fram killing ground, as it is pounded by the strong persistent westerlies roaring around the low pressure systems spinning into the CAB from the N. Atlantic.

Not a good way to start things.  I wouldn't expect to see ice like this until at least June.

Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: sondreb on March 22, 2017, 03:12:29 PM
As a follow-up to the post by jdallen, I made an animated gif of the same view (March 20-21, varied to get less clouds) for 2013-2017, 5 sec delay between images.

(Another note: Have accounts been deleted? Deleted automatically when inactive? Couldn't find my account and made a new one)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 22, 2017, 03:35:33 PM
Your new profile has been released, sondreb, so you can post freely now.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Sam on March 22, 2017, 03:52:37 PM
The Russian Expedition sent two mil 8 helicopters out to begin searching for a stable flow for ice station Barneo on Sunday. They report that they reached Severnaya Zemlya from Krasnoyarsk.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/03/russias-north-pole-camp-making (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/03/russias-north-pole-camp-making)

The video about the airdrome being open is from 2016.

https://www.facebook.com/BarneoRu (https://www.facebook.com/BarneoRu)
http://www.ag24.ru/news/206-Iz-Krasnoyarska-do-Severnogo-polyusa (http://www.ag24.ru/news/206-Iz-Krasnoyarska-do-Severnogo-polyusa)

With the tremendous fracturing and ice movement all around the pole as the ice sheet rotates, it is hard for me to imagine how they will find ice stable enough to build the ice station this year.

https://go.nasa.gov/2nBHVvU (https://go.nasa.gov/2nBHVvU)

Perhaps it is fortunate that the weather turned when it did. Two weeks later and the ice station might have been under construction as the breakup began. They might well have lost another An-74 to the ice.



Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Rick Aster on March 22, 2017, 04:15:43 PM
The Russian Expedition sent two mil 8 helicopters out to begin searching for a stable flow for ice station Barneo on Sunday...

I think it's been mentioned a couple of times, but readers wanting to keep up with Barneo will be interested in the Barneo 2017 thread. http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905.0.html)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 22, 2017, 04:18:44 PM
From last entry of Judah Cohen blog, this speculation I think of interest here, worth being taken into account. Interesting that he does take as valid the excess in accumulated snow (depth, not extent) in Siberia and Canada shown by the models.

Longer term, the global environment favors mild temperatures for the coming months.  The Arctic remains exceptionally warm, aided by record or near record low sea ice; land and ocean temperatures also remain near record warm temperatures.  The only boundary forcing that I can think of that may contribute to relatively cool temperatures is snow cover across the NH.  The amount of snow covering (in mass not extent) the NH is the highest observed over the past twenty years or so.  I hope to be able to tweet out this week a graph of the snow mass this winter across the NH.  A deep snowpack across Canada and especially Siberia will retard warming at least across the high latitudes of the continents that may be transported episodically to lower latitudes.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Sam on March 22, 2017, 04:32:44 PM
Rick,

Thank you.  I had not found that thread.

Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland.  Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.

Sam
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on March 22, 2017, 06:14:24 PM
From last entry of Judah Cohen blog, this speculation I think of interest here, worth being taken into account. Interesting that he does take as valid the excess in accumulated snow (depth, not extent) in Siberia and Canada shown by the models.

Longer term, the global environment favors mild temperatures for the coming months.  The Arctic remains exceptionally warm, aided by record or near record low sea ice; land and ocean temperatures also remain near record warm temperatures.  The only boundary forcing that I can think of that may contribute to relatively cool temperatures is snow cover across the NH.  The amount of snow covering (in mass not extent) the NH is the highest observed over the past twenty years or so.  I hope to be able to tweet out this week a graph of the snow mass this winter across the NH.  A deep snowpack across Canada and especially Siberia will retard warming at least across the high latitudes of the continents that may be transported episodically to lower latitudes.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation)

While my previous posts re: impending ice age due to runaway NHEM snowcover may be both insane and wrong (but possibly not!), I think that if it is correct, it is making itself quite obvious already...

Consider that this winter New York City has seen over 30" of snow (slightly above normal) while having one of its warmest winters on record (I believe top 5). Not only that, but this follows the same situation last year (32", even warmer I believe).

We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 22, 2017, 06:26:41 PM
For max snowfall you need a warmish atmosphere with lots of water vapor and temperatures around freezing. Too cold and rel humidity is lower and snow flakes are too small. Around and little above zero C flakes are at their largest and depth builds quickly. A little warmer and it's rain... no I do not see that happening....a ton of snow that melts quickly....
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 22, 2017, 06:45:14 PM
The very high snow cover extent is a double egged sword. If the spring is cool it will likely help to benefit the sea ice. OTOH, if the spring is going to be warm or very warm it could yield a very big river runoff with fresh water to the Arctic basin, just like it did back in 2012 if my memory is correct.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 22, 2017, 07:01:49 PM

Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland.  Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.

Sam
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 22, 2017, 07:20:28 PM

Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland.  Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.

Sam

Welcome to the age of the "whole arctic gyre"
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on March 22, 2017, 07:24:35 PM
For max snowfall you need a warmish atmosphere with lots of water vapor and temperatures around freezing. Too cold and rel humidity is lower and snow flakes are too small. Around and little above zero C flakes are at their largest and depth builds quickly. A little warmer and it's rain... no I do not see that happening....a ton of snow that melts quickly....
IDK about that; yes that is the case for places like NYC that get 30" of snow in an average winter, but further north, even with the warming we have seen, areas 42-43N+ are almost always substantially below freezing from November through March.

Indeed, you are correct that at 0C things become perilous for frozen precipitation, but the thing is, even with the blazing reds of the anomaly maps, Siberia/Canada/the northern tier most everywhere is still very far from reaching that mark (except for Svalbard/areas adjacent to the newly-opened-Arctic Ocean, where the year-round climate has seemingly shifted towards Oceanic vs. Arctic).
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on March 22, 2017, 08:04:25 PM
Also: WRT the accuracy of the northern hemisphere snow charts, it would seem to me that the pattern shown on 3/21 would match the recent papers showing a decline in Eastern Himalayan snowfall (and plateau in central Himalayan snows) concurrent with a dramatic rise in the western portion. I would posit that this is directly related to increasingly open sea area in Kara/Barentz (due NW of the Western Himalayas/Turkey/Iran, all of which have seen collossal amounts of snow this winter), perhaps combined with very warm sea temps in the Arabian & Indian Oceans.

(https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Williams on March 22, 2017, 08:44:26 PM
For max snowfall you need a warmish atmosphere with lots of water vapor and temperatures around freezing. Too cold and rel humidity is lower and snow flakes are too small. Around and little above zero C flakes are at their largest and depth builds quickly. A little warmer and it's rain... no I do not see that happening....a ton of snow that melts quickly....

Agreed.  That has been the recent history.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 22, 2017, 11:33:54 PM
Anyway I remember maps with similar positive anomalies last year in Eastern Siberia and disappeared pretty abruptly. In fact a heat wave in May or June started last years ESS bite. Its really unpredictable.
Models hinting for that Beaufort high forming in five days and coupling with a strong Laptev low for two or three days. We may see some wind-driven sea ice drift clockwise in the Beaufort sea after all ( though the underlying Gyre ocean current seems dead to me, not the slightest displacement this year so far).
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on March 22, 2017, 11:51:14 PM
The very high snow cover extent is a double egged sword. If the spring is cool it will likely help to benefit the sea ice. OTOH, if the spring is going to be warm or very warm it could yield a very big river runoff with fresh water to the Arctic basin, just like it did back in 2012 if my memory is correct.

Make that a quadruple edged sword, since fall/winter snow will serve to both trap extra heat in the ground and keep the sea ice from growing as rapidly.  Also the extra Siberian snow cover associated with WACC supports wavier jet, disrupted vortex and associated increases in heat/moisture.  The extra snow is a positive feedback that speeds up the demise of Arctic winter power, etc.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jgnfld on March 23, 2017, 12:59:35 AM
...
We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
Just to be clear, is it your contention that snow means there is cooling??? If so can you please cite the research which shows that?  I've lived in the subarctic most of my life. In my experience snow means warming, though still at or a bit below 0C.  It just doesn't snow when the temps are arctic cold and the pressure is high.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on March 23, 2017, 02:53:12 AM
...
We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
Just to be clear, is it your contention that snow means there is cooling??? If so can you please cite the research which shows that?  I've lived in the subarctic most of my life. In my experience snow means warming, though still at or a bit below 0C.  It just doesn't snow when the temps are arctic cold and the pressure is high.
No, that is not my contention -- I am saying that the current amount of warming combined with the increasingly open Arctic Ocean results in more snowfall. Currently this results in relatively small opportunities for negative temperature anomalies (like last fall, where the +++snowfall in areas that don't normally see it so early resulted in very negative departures across much of Asia in October/November).

Eventually, if this feedback continues to amplify, I suspect it could lead to much more dramatic cooling by way of albedo effect. But we are most definitely not yet at that point and it may not even exist (though I suspect it does).
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 23, 2017, 03:19:34 AM
...
We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
Just to be clear, is it your contention that snow means there is cooling??? If so can you please cite the research which shows that?  I've lived in the subarctic most of my life. In my experience snow means warming, though still at or a bit below 0C.  It just doesn't snow when the temps are arctic cold and the pressure is high.

No, that is not my contention -- I am saying that the current amount of warming combined with the increasingly open Arctic Ocean results in more snowfall. Currently this results in relatively small opportunities for negative temperature anomalies (like last fall, where the +++snowfall in areas that don't normally see it so early resulted in very negative departures across much of Asia in October/November).

Eventually, if this feedback continues to amplify, I suspect it could lead to much more dramatic cooling by way of albedo effect. But we are most definitely not yet at that point and it may not even exist (though I suspect it does).

I wanted to reply to this, but so as not to derail this thread,
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1932.0.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 23, 2017, 07:25:54 AM
Crossposting from IJIS-thread:

NSIDC has called the min max now which occurred by March 7: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-at-record-low/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-at-record-low/)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 23, 2017, 10:08:31 AM
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) now shows larger anomalies until next Thursday.
Also Kara Sea goes windy starting Saturday, meaning no chance of refreeze there in near future.
Kara, Laptev and ESS as usual warmest, also Beaufort and North Pole warmer than usual.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Adam Ash on March 23, 2017, 12:35:39 PM
On the IJIS thread, JDAllan mentioned the expected formation of melt ponds on the ice around June. But given the severely fragmented nature of the ice pack this season what are the chances of melt ponds of any size forming? 

Instead, will not a more fractured pack offer significantly more 'side' to low angle insolation than the comparatively homogeneous / continuous ice pack of old?  That flow side will have high albedo but that won't help, as it will simply reflect a fair share of incident radiation downwards, into the surrounding water and onto other 'sides' nearby where the energy received will simply chew away at the sides of each floe.   
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: gerontocrat on March 23, 2017, 12:41:13 PM
Jaxa sea-ice drift graph shows considerable sea-ice drift south out of Baffin Bay. Significant?
Weather-forecast.com indicates probable massive ESE movement of ice into open water Monday Tuesday Wednesday next week. This observer is not finding anything to indicate any reason for melting to slow down yet.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on March 23, 2017, 12:42:54 PM
Yes the pack is fragmented, but the individual pieces are still quite large. Don't forget a flow that is only 1 pixel will still be many kilometres across. Melt ponds will be on the 10's to possibly 100's meters scale. There's several order of magnitude there.

Not until the flows break up to around the melt pond scale will side melt make a major difference.
The pack may be shattered, but it's still almost all top and bottom melt.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 23, 2017, 08:35:32 PM
is there a metric for daily or weekly sea ice mobility anomaly?  this would be very useful when the Arctic turns into a single gyre.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 23, 2017, 09:33:19 PM
is there a metric for daily or weekly sea ice mobility anomaly?  this would be very useful when the Arctic turns into a single gyre.
Nevö höörd nevöevö... never heard of such a thing. People still believe thaere's weather.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: slow wing on March 24, 2017, 12:50:07 AM
"...the Arctic turns into a single gyre"?

 There hasn't even been a gyre lately. Instead the ice in the Arctic Basin has been blown from the Russian side and compressed against the Canadian side, with some leaking out towards the Atlantic...

(https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)


  The good news is that the compression has helped to heal the Beaufort Sea back to around a 2 metre thickness.

   And if the pattern ends soon then there is still well over a month left of weather cold enough to somewhat heal the tears on the Russian side.

   But what if the tear-and-compression continues well into April or May? Will large stretches of water remain open on the Russian side, efficiently absorbing the peak insolation around the Summer solstice?

  A broader question is why so much compression? Is there enough thin and weak ice this year in the Arctic Basin that any wind pressure from the Russian side will always result in movement and compression? And is this movement replacing the Beaufort gyre of seasons past, with the ice now compressing rather than transferring the force for rotation?

   If so, does this mean that maximum Arctic sea ice volume for the year has descended this season to a transition value, or even a tipping point, where the ice will continue to tear-and-compress from the Russian side heading into the Summer melt season, with the Russian side therefore opening up anomalously early?

   Or, instead, will the movement damp down within a few weeks and those consequences won't come to pass this year?

   Either way, the plot twists and turns of the melt season are going to provide us with riveting viewing.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on March 24, 2017, 03:00:48 AM
(I tried to post this earlier, but it didn't work. Scaled it down and trying again...)

Pan-Arctic Gyre firing up?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on March 24, 2017, 05:32:59 AM
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

I always enjoy "watching" the spring flood of the MacKenzie River in early May.  In recent years, it has produced a burst of early warmth into the Beaufort.  About the same time, we may also start to see large forest fires in Canada and Siberia producing a burst of speculation about their effects on the climate and vice versa.

As others have mentioned, watching the Beaufort throughout the season is interesting.  In 2015, there was a large patch of thick ice that lingered and kept ice extent and area high there.  But that patch was rotating clockwise.  So in 2016, there seemed to be relatively thick ice in the ESS and Laptev that kept those seas from melting out until late in the season.  So I'll be watching those seas to see if they seem to be melting out earlier this year.

Next I'm fascinated by the break up of the fast ice along the northern edge of the Canadian Archipelago.  Winds from Russia across the pole tend to pile up thick ice there during the winter, and then in summer winds and currents may carry the ice west to the warm Beaufort or east through the Fram strait, leaving impressive cracks along the shore.  And last year there were many good images of the ice being pushed south through the straits in the archipelago.

Climate Reanalyzer is a favorite tool for watching remnants of Pacific Typhoons blow through the Bering Strait and rile up the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.  Also the regular series of storms that blow up through the North Sea and pull ice through the Fram Strait.  People get very excited when a strong low pressure system lingers in the Arctic Ocean.  A strong storm in 2012 and another last year seem to have been quite effective at dispersing ice to the south and generally cracking the ice and pushing sea water on top of the ice.

And in late August and early September, you'll watch the progress of boats through the Northwest and Northeast passages.  You may end up reading some history of some of the early multi-year attempts at navigating the Northwest passage.

More than just the weather, there's a lot of geography, history, physics, economics and geopolitics going on as well.  And talking about the weather is kind of a natural lead in to some of these other subjects.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 24, 2017, 09:10:45 AM
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Friday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev and ESS, also Beaufort and Northern Canada warmer than usual.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Glenn Tamblyn on March 24, 2017, 11:17:08 AM
If Hycom is right, there is a very big section of ice that looks like it is leaving Baffin Bay.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on March 24, 2017, 01:13:27 PM
If Hycom is right, there is a very big section of ice that looks like it is leaving Baffin Bay.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

And Fram...
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Cate on March 24, 2017, 01:39:48 PM
Surface ice in Nares is moving through. I don't know how to animate---toggle the past couple of clear days to watch it. I'm sure someone here can work out the speed. ;)

Notice that the heel, toe, and sole of the bigfoot boot "arch" at the Lincoln Sea end have frozen over again, for the time being.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132 (http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 24, 2017, 02:21:25 PM
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 24, 2017, 02:28:31 PM
Three animations taken from one of Worldview's sea ice concentration layers (AMSR2 12 km resolution), of the last thirteen days.
First one shows the retreat of the ice at Kara sea.
Second one shows the dispersion of the ice over Fram, Svalbard and Barents in general. In the last two frames, some retreat (or rather melting?) of the ice  near Svalbard and Fram can be observed,
The last one shows an interesting feature forming in Bering sea ice edge during the last few days, its formation not following the general drift of the ice at Bering sea. This is a wedge-like intrusion of ocean that is trying to reach the Bering Strait, more aligned with the Asian coast. Hycom shows ocean flow in that location and direction precisely.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 24, 2017, 02:28:49 PM
Surface ice in Nares is moving through. I don't know how to animate---toggle the past couple of clear days to watch it. I'm sure someone here can work out the speed. ;)

Notice that the heel, toe, and sole of the bigfoot boot "arch" at the Lincoln Sea end have frozen over again, for the time being.

[url]http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132[/url] ([url]http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132[/url])


Is it normal for that much of the Northwest passage to have such thin ice? With that large crack, it almost looks as if it is open for business.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Hyperion on March 24, 2017, 02:32:06 PM
"...the Arctic turns into a single gyre"?

 There hasn't even been a gyre lately. Instead the ice in the Arctic Basin has been blown from the Russian side and compressed against the Canadian side, with some leaking out towards the Atlantic...

  The good news is that the compression has helped to heal the Beaufort Sea back to around a 2 metre thickness.

   But what if the tear-and-compression continues well into April or May? Will large stretches of water remain open on the Russian side, efficiently absorbing the peak insolation around the Summer solstice?

  A broader question is why so much compression? Is there enough thin and weak ice this year in the Arctic Basin that any wind pressure from the Russian side will always result in movement and compression? And is this movement replacing the Beaufort gyre of seasons past, with the ice now compressing rather than transferring the force for rotation?

   If so, does this mean that maximum Arctic sea ice volume for the year has descended this season to a transition value, or even a tipping point, where the ice will continue to tear-and-compress from the Russian side heading into the Summer melt season, with the Russian side therefore opening up anomalously early?

   Or, instead, will the movement damp down within a few weeks and those consequences won't come to pass this year?

   Either way, the plot twists and turns of the melt season are going to provide us with riveting viewing.

This looks a dangerous pattern indeed. If the anticlockwise forcing from low pressure systems continues then the chances of hot gulfstream water sweeping right around the top of europe onto the ESAS this summer are multiplied. This would effectively multiply the killing front where ice is being gobbled and surface low salinity surface waters are mixed away that has thus far been extending its grasp past Svalbard but blocked in recent years by FJL. If it gets well in place and a "pan Arctic CCW Gyre" sets up we could even see Pacific waters pumping in through Bering straight in Autumn to extend the Halocline killing front into a full Arctic Circle Whirlpool. ???
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 24, 2017, 02:33:17 PM
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.
(http://)

If we are depending on the Beaufort to be the strong ice for the upcoming melt season, we are pretty well screwed.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Hyperion on March 24, 2017, 02:45:58 PM
Nice Work SIS, you posted while I was typing,  :o

 
This is a wedge-like intrusion of ocean that is trying to reach the Bering Strait,

Looks like this surge is pumping a big flush out of Bering in that third Animation.
I've often wondered if there is a periodic resonance effect in the Bering in/out flows. If storm surges in from the atlantic side match the tidal resonance of the Arctic basin then it could make Bering look pretty interesting.  ::)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Buddy on March 24, 2017, 03:05:12 PM
<snip, off-topic and too much caps lock (with colour no less); N.>
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 24, 2017, 03:29:13 PM
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.
(http://)

And we have drift forecast like this for Monday. Tuesday is pretty much the same or even worse.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Archimid on March 24, 2017, 03:55:20 PM
seaicesailor thanks. Freaking awesome animations.


If we are depending on the Beaufort to be the strong ice for the upcoming melt season, we are pretty well screwed.

If you completely ignore the lack of multiyear ice, the Beaufort looks great compared to the rest of the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Hyperion on March 24, 2017, 04:57:18 PM
Meanwhile the circulations of the less visible stuff above at this point below.
850hpa ~1.2km , 500hpa ~6km , 70hpa ~18km , 10hpa ~30km

There appears to be now a hole right through the roof of the dawn.
The counterclockwise rotations are stacked from  sea level up to 30km over the Arctic lows. And even higher I suspect. Notice the temperature is at its lowest in the 30km altitude where I have marked the green circle at 70 and 10hpa altitudes. The stratosphere starts where the temperature is lowest and rises with altitude from there. This area above the Kara and Severny Island looks like it has the updrafts from the resident lows starting to shear away, but likely still rising at 30km up. Producing this cold spot due to expansion of the rising air. The 10hpa world looks completely different to a month or two ago. Then the coldest place was above the equator, and the warmest the poles. Now the opposite. Almost anyway, the warmest spot is where I've marked with the red squiggle on the 10hpa pic above the nth Pacific. A toasty -37C ! There appears to be a third stratospheric polar Vortex establishing at this point. Descending air from even higher up? There is a pretty warm big and deep low directly below it but in the 12-18 km altitude range at that location there's a very big jetflow sprawling out into the warmest region in the 12-18km atmosphere. Over CAA and Greenland.

Very stable and unbending rivers air below aligning with the big 3-18 km altitude 30 -70 degree nth or sth meandering jets that have established. Like the Southerly blast coming up the Atlantic from off Americas east coast ound 30deg nth thats been established for  days through the whole nth sea.
We had one like that 2 weeks ago in NZ. The easterly Trades just bent and came straight down off fiji 2500km nth of here. And met a river coming 3000km from the SSW straight up off Antarctica. No "weather systems" circulating, but A 100yr flood every night for 4 days.  And gale force winds without a cyclonic driver. :o
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Rick Aster on March 24, 2017, 05:28:36 PM
When I look at thickness maps and satellite images of Beaufort and Chukchi seas, the ice looks smoother than I can remember ever seeing anywhere on the ocean, almost like a bigger version of lake ice. I'm not sure that impression is valid because of issues of scale. Smooth level ice is smooth on a 10-meter scale and I'm looking at more like a 10-kilometer scale. Also, the appearance of smooth ice could just reflect the new absence of multi-year ice and perhaps less vigorous cracking during the winter. With that caveat, if the ice there actually is as smooth as it appears, that could mean early melt ponds and early melting.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 24, 2017, 07:31:52 PM
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.
(http://)

If we are depending on the Beaufort to be the strong ice for the upcoming melt season, we are pretty well screwed.
The Beaufort isn't thick enough.  Most of the ice there is under 2M.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 24, 2017, 10:32:47 PM
An open access paper from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition:

"Turbulent heat and momentum fluxes in the upper ocean under Arctic sea ice (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC012283/full)"

Oceanic heat flux is weakly positive in winter over the Nansen Basin during quiescent conditions, increasing by an order of magnitude during storm events. An event of local upwelling and mixing in the winter-time Nansen basin highlights the importance of individual events. Spring-time drift is confined to the Yermak Plateau and its slopes, where vertical mixing is enhanced. Wind events cause an approximate doubling of oceanic heat fluxes compared to calm periods. In June, melting conditions near the ice edge lead to heat fluxes of O(100 W m−2). The combination of wind forcing with shallow Atlantic Water layer and proximity to open waters leads to maximum heat fluxes reaching 367 W m−2, concurrent with rapid melting.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Cate on March 24, 2017, 10:34:22 PM
Surface ice in Nares is moving through. I don't know how to animate---toggle the past couple of clear days to watch it. I'm sure someone here can work out the speed. ;)

Notice that the heel, toe, and sole of the bigfoot boot "arch" at the Lincoln Sea end have frozen over again, for the time being.

[url]http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132[/url] ([url]http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132[/url])


Is it normal for that much of the Northwest passage to have such thin ice? With that large crack, it almost looks as if it is open for business.


I was told that Nares usually opens in July. If you compare this same period from previous years, you can see how different the whole strait looks this year. The famous arch is key---will it hold or not? And will other arches be able to form with the ice in that state?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: dosibl on March 24, 2017, 10:52:14 PM
I think a fair amount of ice north of the Nares has been busy sliding towards the Fram instead of pressing on the arch, a trend which looks set to continue.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: JimboOmega on March 24, 2017, 11:08:40 PM
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.
(http://)

And we have drift forecast like this for Monday. Tuesday is pretty much the same or even worse.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

How can we have drift like this and not have large Polynya open up along the Kara Sea coast? It's been continuously warm-ish there (per cci-reanalyzer) and the 30cm/sec is 25km/day - more than enough to be visible on satellites.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 24, 2017, 11:23:19 PM
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.
(http://)

first time since long that i don't share your thoughts, that's a "dream" IMO, nothing has healed and once spring set on there will no resistance. further i don't believe in any homogenous 2m ice in the beaufort, if at all it's compresse ice sticking up or overlapping at times. i cannot imagine any scenario that exactly beaufort wouldn't melt this year, not that all the MYI is gone elsewhere or for good.

each year in this time when nothing big happens there is are a lot of ideas popping up that never hold a few weeks later. the greyhounds are in the startbox and can't wait to be released LOL
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 24, 2017, 11:44:34 PM
I wasn't really saying that the Beaufort ice is that great compared to what it should be, only by comparison to the rest.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on March 25, 2017, 02:19:45 AM
According to this map, the transportation of sea ice through Nares is just a small part of a much larger picture in that region. If this graph is correct, the entire sea ice cover of the Baffin Bay has started to move en masse to the Atlantic Ocean leaving behind either tiny ice veneer or open water. If so, it is no surprise that ice then can move easily out of the Kennedy Canal and the Nares Strait to the Northern Baffin Bay which is opening as ice there is also moving out. These are very large areas, indeed, to be lost barely after the spring equinox has occurred. Anyone comments how early we are with ice loss in the Baffin Bay? A friend from Nuuk (capital of Greenland) yesterday wondered from where they are getting those huge snowstorms as there are nearly 2-metre snowpile on roadsides. Best to view in scale 300% or 400% on your Internet browsers: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2017032318_2017032100_046_arcticictn.001.gif
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 25, 2017, 02:46:57 AM
Yes, Baffin ice is really moving along.
(http://)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 25, 2017, 09:02:24 AM
I find the passive microwave (AMSR2) brightness temperature layer on worldview good for seeing movement on larger scales. As I have pointed out before, the colour scale (which fluctuates a lot) is not telling us much or is just too complex to interpret but it shows up recognizeable features which let you track the ice through cloudy weather.
https://go.nasa.gov/2ofX4zZ (https://go.nasa.gov/2ofX4zZ)
 
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 25, 2017, 09:15:39 AM
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Saturday.
"Heatwave" extends into April over Kara, Laptev, ESS and towards North Pole.
Kara Sea is interesting to watch - wind speed 13 - 16 m/s over open water today and tomorrow.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 25, 2017, 11:03:32 AM
Drift north of Greenland and Lincoln Sea today. I used Worldview, Brightness Temperature (Band 31-Night).
Title: The Buoys Are Back in Town
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 25, 2017, 11:30:57 AM
The buoys are back in town. Or in the Beaufort Sea actually:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A)

Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):

Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm

Current Buoy Data (03/23/2017):

Pos: 72.82 N, 146.61 W
Air Temp: -24.66 C
Air Pres: 1012.43 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 93 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017):

Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

See also: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/UpTempO/Data.php (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/UpTempO/Data.php)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on March 25, 2017, 11:33:52 AM
I find it all rather alarming that Siberia seems to be consistently warmer than normal. Also when looking at uni bremen there are blue patches appearing everywhere.

Ill be very impressed if there is anything more than the lowest on record this year.

the odds must be 100/1 at least.
Title: Re: The Buoys Are Back in Town
Post by: Neven on March 25, 2017, 12:44:10 PM
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

Wow, a whole 8 cm of bottom growth. So much for resistance to disintegration.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 25, 2017, 01:18:27 PM
Surface ice in Nares is moving through. I don't know how to animate---toggle the past couple of clear days to watch it. I'm sure someone here can work out the speed. ;)

Notice that the heel, toe, and sole of the bigfoot boot "arch" at the Lincoln Sea end have frozen over again, for the time being.

[url]http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132[/url] ([url]http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-03-23/7-N79.9726-W66.63132[/url])


Is it normal for that much of the Northwest passage to have such thin ice? With that large crack, it almost looks as if it is open for business.


I was told that Nares usually opens in July. If you compare this same period from previous years, you can see how different the whole strait looks this year. The famous arch is key---will it hold or not? And will other arches be able to form with the ice in that state?


I'm not talking about Nares Strait. I'm shocked by the condition of the Northwest passage that you can see on that image.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 25, 2017, 01:34:28 PM
Thanks for the info about bouy Jim.
Strange location to place that buoy, being short of funding they risk to gather like .... four months of data.
Who knows, last year Laptev sea ice, a usual "goner", did not completely melt being less than 2m (and 1m much of it) FYI. It was sealed, was cloudy and cold, it is the closest example I can come up with of the importance of (absence of) albedo feedback.
I guess this is what makes the 60% of that paper :P
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Iain on March 25, 2017, 01:39:29 PM
Visual confirmation the ice is moving along the full length of Nares strait and Robeson channel, however the grain size of the ice in the CAB is still too large to enter.

Meanwhile Parry channel, a conduit for ice getting through the CAA to enter Baffin bay, is still blocked between Somerset and Devon islands by an arch of ice. In 2016 it didn't break until 2nd of July. One to watch.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: PSJ on March 25, 2017, 03:10:21 PM
Does anyone know where to find HYCOM/CICE forecasts after March 21? It seems the usual page has not updated for some days.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Title: Re: The Buoys Are Back in Town/ The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 25, 2017, 03:15:36 PM
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

Wow, a whole 8 cm of bottom growth. So much for resistance to disintegration.  ;)
Not only that, look at the overall thickness: 93cm....
If the ice there is that much less thick than it is supposed to be, what about the rest? I think their calibration of sat. data got threw off.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: iceman on March 25, 2017, 04:15:43 PM
When I look at thickness maps and satellite images of Beaufort and Chukchi seas, the ice looks smoother than I can remember ever seeing anywhere on the ocean, almost like a bigger version of lake ice. I'm not sure that impression is valid because of issues of scale. Smooth level ice is smooth on a 10-meter scale and I'm looking at more like a 10-kilometer scale. Also, the appearance of smooth ice could just reflect the new absence of multi-year ice and perhaps less vigorous cracking during the winter. With that caveat, if the ice there actually is as smooth as it appears, that could mean early melt ponds and early melting.

Indeed, even if the impression of smoothness is exaggerated, the preponderance of first-year ice means the Beaufort is extremely vulnerable to melt ponding this year.  Less fracturing than usual could result in the melt ponds persisting longer before draining.  That might be even more damaging than the early open water in Kara, though perhaps less so than above-average Fram Strait export.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 25, 2017, 10:11:35 PM
Still looks like a new minimum this year.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 26, 2017, 12:01:46 AM
Does anyone know where to find HYCOM/CICE forecasts after March 21?

It seems to be up to March 24th now.
Title: pinning the tail on the donkey
Post by: Hyperion on March 26, 2017, 01:15:59 AM
Its pretty obvious that on the battlefield direct observations would benefit our understanding and eliminate a lot of uncertainty in the situation that satellite and models are creating.

Introducing the Maui Dolphin / Emperor Penguin data acquisition system. A little something I prepared earlier as a cheap and easy to manufacture and deploy ROV that can travel at up to 30kph and to ~150m depths with long term independent of pickup and maintenance capability due to solar and wave energy power generation. And surf riding high speed transit capability.
Dimensions as per namesakes.
 Estimated cost under $2000, sensors extra.
Anyone want to crowd fund some? Lets start a thread. We can make extra money by hiring them out to Webpilots in their sparetime. Moderator riding shotgun of course.  8)
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: slow wing on March 26, 2017, 03:09:27 AM
Terrific, Hyperion!

Yes, start a thread please.

The greatest of respect to the many dedicated scientists, technicians etc. who are already providing the experimental information we rely on to understand the state of the Arctic.

Having said that, it's a disgrace that we don't have more coverage; a disgrace that we need inadequately calibrated models for the currents, water temperatures and salinities, etc - as well as information on the ice and snow state and thickness.

   Smart probes for the Arctic are difficult to fund even while smart bombs are streaming off the assembly lines.

   More broadly than your particular solution, it makes a lot of sense to have a thread on the future experimental program for monitoring the Arctic.

   Better in"Policy and solutions" or in "Science"?

   I had a look previously and couldn't find an existing thread. (Did I just miss it?)

   So there were a series of posts in the "What the Buoys are telling" thread kicking off with this one from me (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg90616.html#msg90616) and then with those more knowledgeable and experienced posting valuable content.

Maybe all that can be moved to a new dedicated thread for e.g. "Existing and proposed experimental apparatus and programs for the Arctic" and add your stuff and other proposed solutions?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on March 26, 2017, 03:34:41 AM
Yes, Baffin ice is really moving along.
(http://)
Thanks Tigertown, for validating my interpretation of US Navy map.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 26, 2017, 09:20:59 AM
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) is now forecasting bit higher anomalies until next Sunday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev, ESS and is heading towards North Pole later.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: dosibl on March 26, 2017, 05:02:31 PM
Looking at the DMI 80n graphs temps consistently start rising around day 100, whats the primary driver behind this, increase in solar energy?
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 26, 2017, 05:10:01 PM
Looking at the DMI 80n graphs temps consistently start rising around day 100, whats the primary driver behind this, increase in solar energy?
I would think so, especially due to the angle of incidence of the solar energy, by that time of year.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 26, 2017, 08:15:02 PM
We've been told that DMI's 80N temperature is north-pole weighted, so the NP insolation after March 20th affects the reported temperature disproportionately.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 27, 2017, 12:45:25 AM
Tropicaltidbits has a nice visualization of NOAA long-range CFS model and that is always interesting, even when the skill of this model in the Arctic is been challenged in the past and we must take the predictions with a grain of salt.
These are the weekly ensemble average of a large number of runs, of pressure and temperature.
Focusing only on the persistent features, the MSLP shows that the large low pressure anomaly finally gives way to a more usual pattern in April with a high in Beaufort and a normal flow south from the Eurasian continent toward Fram thru the pole.
This translates on temperatures that are going to be anomalously high in all Siberia and all Eurasian Arctic Coast. Anomalously persistent warmth in most of Canada too, coincidentally or not. A lot of snow in both continents might start suffer decimation.
Coldness persists on Nansen basin and Greenland sea, which is associated with the northerlies that unfortunately for the MYI will keep moving it inch by inch toward the Atlantic.
Only good news for the Bering sea.
What will happen with the Beaufort sea persistent high. Repeat of '15 and '16 ?
In general not good for the Arctic but that news as usual. All of this may well be crap (1008 hours of forecast!) but it is always enjoyable to speculate some especially when more crucial moments for the menting season is about to start.
Time will tell
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 27, 2017, 12:54:57 AM
These cracks or shears or whatever are spreading and getting worse. They have no respect for the NP region either. Only the the thick, robust, durable, mighty, 93 cm ice in the Beaufort stands a chance against these. ;)
(http://)
Title: Roundhouse punches from the ApocalyptoKraken
Post by: Hyperion on March 27, 2017, 04:51:50 AM
These Total Precipitable water maps look like theres seven water Giants wading Around the equator swinging tentacled fists under the cover of the jetsteam. In Nth and Southern Hemispheres each, three in the pacific, two per Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Every time the God Coriolis tries to deflect them, the following Kraken punches it back on course for the poles. The circulation has gone Feral! (or should that be Ferral?). Back flows seem to be at altitude. And Hadley seems history.

Quickstab at what this setup might mean numerically. Peer review and alternative approaches most welcome:
 ;)

1,680,000,000,000,000J
18.748 kg/sqm
200km x 50kmph (ballpark flow estimate) x 24hr = 240 000 sqkm = 240 000 000 000 sqm
240 000 000 000 sqm x 19 kg x 4200J = 19,152,000,000,000,000 Joules per day
=19.52 petajoules per day
Quote wikipedia:
"The petajoule (PJ) is equal to one quadrillion (10^15) joules. 210 PJ is equivalent to about 50 megatons of TNT. This is the amount of energy released by the Tsar Bomba, the largest man-made nuclear explosion ever."
"The gigajoule (GJ) is equal to one billion (10^9) joules. 6 GJ is about the amount of potential chemical energy in 160 L (approximately one US standard barrel) of oil, when combusted."
So about ten days of ApocalyptoKraken suckerpunches = 1 Tsar Bomba = 35 million Barrels of oil burned.
North pole at summer solstice gets 12.64 kWhrs per sqm. = 12.64 x 60mx 60s kJ / sqm = 45,504,000 J per sqm per day = 45 504 000 000 000J per sqkm per day.
19 152 000 000 000 000 / 45 504 000 000 000 = 420 sqkm of full midsummer insolation. About 4200sqkm of 10% absorbed as per bright white ice.
If we were to anticipate that in a few months time there might be twice as much water vapour per sqm incoming and 4000 km front of it crossing for flux calculation purposes, then it would be 80x this. So simular to 336 000 sqkm of normal midsummer insolation.
 (Neglecting other energy transported in the humid air of course. This probably of a far larger magnitude. Anyone want to do an estimate for the specific heat transport capacity of moist air column incoming, say flux area 1000km wide by 5km deep, velocity 50kmph?).
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: Tigertown on March 27, 2017, 05:24:40 AM
@Hyperion

Just trying to understand here; what are you saying has changed dramatically about the TPW? Looking back a few years, this year seems to show only minor changes of late. Please clarify. 

P.S. If we get too deep into this, you are going to need to open a new thread in a new location, as opposed to renaming this one. I don't know how that is going to fly with Neven, but I guess we'll see.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 27, 2017, 07:16:00 AM
these atmospheric river events are several days worth and transport water vapor on the order of 8X10^7 kg/s into the arctic.  Called Qr in the following paper http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sxl31/papers/Baggett_Lee_Feldstein_2016.pdf (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sxl31/papers/Baggett_Lee_Feldstein_2016.pdf)

there is a separate thread in the science section for this discussion. 
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1874.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1874.0.html)
Title: Re: Roundhouse punches from the ApocalyptoKraken
Post by: slow wing on March 27, 2017, 08:41:29 AM
Thanks Hyperion, I agree that it's interesting to look at the potential contribution of atmospheric water to Arctic sea ice melt so I will take you up on your 'peer review' offer...

...
Quickstab at what this setup might mean numerically. Peer review and alternative approaches most welcome:
 ;)

1,680,000,000,000,000J
18.748 kg/sqm
200km x 50kmph (ballpark flow estimate) x 24hr = 240 000 sqkm = 240 000 000 000 sqm
240 000 000 000 sqm x 19 kg x 4200J = 19,152,000,000,000,000 Joules per day
=19.52 petajoules per day
...

That's the specific heat capacity of water - the amount of energy required to raise the temperature of 1 kg liquid water by 1 degree Kelvin \ Celsius. Better to use the heat of evaporation as the "Total precipitable water" is almost all vapour (use "Total cloud water" option to see the small part that isn't) and can melt ice by condensing. This contribution to heating the ice is much larger than the heats from temperature changes.

Water properties here. (http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/water-thermal-properties-d_162.html)
It's actually even easier to use the ratio of heats of vaporisation to fusion.
Latent heat of melting - 334 kJ/kg
Latent heat of evaporation - 2257 kJ/kg
Ratio ~ 2257 / 334 ~ 6.76. So each kg of water vapour can, by condensing, cause the melt of nearly 7 kgs of ice.

Expressed in scientific notation, you estimated 2.4e11 m^2 of moist air entering the Arctic per day, carrying 18 kg/m^2 of water vapour, so on multiplying you say about 4e12 kg/day of water vapour entering the Arctic.

From above, this could melt 2.4e11 x 18 x 6.8 kg/day ~ 3e13 kg/day of ice.

To see if this would be a relevant amount, we should ask how many kg of ice are in the Arctic?

From PIOMAS, we see that the volume of Arctic sea ice at the end of the freeze season is around 20 000 km^3 ~ 2e13 m^3. Ice weighs around 900 kg/m^3, so this is ~ 2e16 kg of ice.

On comparing the two, it would take several hundred days to melt all the ice at the assumed rate of ingress of water vapour and assuming a large fraction of it condenses to melt ice.

  As an initial impression, I would also say that the rate of ingress you assume is anyway much larger than would be typical, perhaps by an order of magnitude or more.


So this back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the ingress of atmospheric water vapour into the Arctic can't account for a large fraction of the yearly ice loss. However, it wouldn't be surprising if it contributed at the percent level or maybe up to a few percent of the ice loss.

Given the observed rise in atmospheric moisture beginning around the start of 2016, this could still mean a significant rise in sea ice loss by this mechanism.

Presumably this has been studied at a more rigorous level. Does anyone know of such a study and their findings?
EDIT: already answered and it has been studied. Thanks, Jai Mitchell.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: romett1 on March 27, 2017, 09:49:25 AM
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Monday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev and ESS and also higher temperatures over North Pole and Beaufort.
Title: Re: The 2017 melting season
Post by: misfratz on March 27, 2017, 10:13:31 AM
I find it all rather alarming that Siberia seems to be consistently warmer than normal. Also when looking at uni bremen there are blue patches appearing everywhere.

Ill be very impressed if there is anything more than the lowest on record this year.

the odds must be 100/1 at least.
My ballpark for the last several years has been a 1-in-4 chance of a new record each year. A lot really does depend on the weather.

While the low pressure systems over the Arctic recently have been pushing the ice away from the SIberian coast I've noted that the mean air temperature there has still been below freezing. So does that mean that open water results in a net loss of heat, or is there enough solar insolation after the equinox to see heat enter the Arctic Ocean?