Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2017, 03:08:28 AM

Title: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2017, 03:08:28 AM
As it is 2017, I thought it time to open a new ENSO thread & I start by noting the per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on January 07, 2017, 04:25:43 AM
timely, the rapid reduction of SE Asian aerosols portends a shift to stronger +PDO with a higher probability for weaker La Ninas/Stronger El Ninos

as you posted here in the Aerosols thread:  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg80923.html#msg80923 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg80923.html#msg80923)

with reference paper here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/full/nclimate3058.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/full/nclimate3058.html)
and further discussion found here: https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2016/06/23/aerosol-forcing-and-the-pdo/ (https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2016/06/23/aerosol-forcing-and-the-pdo/)

attached graphic is my update to the consumption graph.  The Asian aerosol curve roughly fits this coal consumption graph, the first 6 months of 2016 with an ~10% decline in consumption, as reported by China, was added by me.  This reduction was primarily driven by economic contraction and the shuttering of less efficient (lower combustion temp) coal power plants.  Note that increased retrofits of industrial activities have further reduced aerosols from this sector but the largest impact to emissions appears to be caused by a decline in the production of Pig Iron due to massive overproduction stockpiles.

The transformation of our climate away from the 'pause' to rapid warming is directly correlated to the flat time-rate change of emissions from China.  As the rate of increase slowed and stopped we began to see the rapid transformation of NH weather patterns, now that it has gone into decline, we will continue to see the increase of warming rates catch up to the emissions of 7 years ago AND with WV and Lapse Rate feedbacks increasing due to forcing increases as SO2 continues to decline globally.

It would not surprise me to find us going into a new, moderate El Nino by next December and a semi-permanent El Nino state by mid 2019.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 07, 2017, 11:16:52 AM
Hi jd!
I've been talking, in other forums, about the impacts of recent 'dimming' and how quickly they will 'fall away' compared to the fall off when the western nations engaged on their 'clean air' acts.

The west had to develop technologies to deal with the issue whereas China can buy off the shelf and so show near instant results( for over two decades the UK has been aiding China with 'scrubber technology' for their smoke stacks but their growth side lined such efforts?).

Seven years for SO2 to drop out but soot is washed out with the first rains. So we see instant results and the 2014 'flip' in both IPO and PDO may well mark just how strongly the old impacts were skewing the Pacific basin ( leading to the imbalance we saw between tropical Atlantic/Pacific?)

I'm waiting for 2017 global temps to see just how strongly we are now warming as I believe this is only set to increase so 2016's 'Nino' high may only take a few years to overtake.

Disclaimer: If we go blue Ocean in 2017 all bets are off!!!
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 07, 2017, 11:41:31 AM
timely, the rapid reduction of SE Asian aerosols portends a shift to stronger +PDO with a higher probability for weaker La Ninas/Stronger El Ninos

as you posted here in the Aerosols thread:  [url]http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg80923.html#msg80923[/url] ([url]http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg80923.html#msg80923[/url])

with reference paper here: [url]http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/full/nclimate3058.html[/url] ([url]http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/full/nclimate3058.html[/url])
and further discussion found here: [url]https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2016/06/23/aerosol-forcing-and-the-pdo/[/url] ([url]https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2016/06/23/aerosol-forcing-and-the-pdo/[/url])

attached graphic is my update to the consumption graph.  The Asian aerosol curve roughly fits this coal consumption graph, the first 6 months of 2016 with an ~10% decline in consumption, as reported by China, was added by me.  This reduction was primarily driven by economic contraction and the shuttering of less efficient (lower combustion temp) coal power plants.  Note that increased retrofits of industrial activities have further reduced aerosols from this sector but the largest impact to emissions appears to be caused by a decline in the production of Pig Iron due to massive overproduction stockpiles.

The transformation of our climate away from the 'pause' to rapid warming is directly correlated to the flat time-rate change of emissions from China.  As the rate of increase slowed and stopped we began to see the rapid transformation of NH weather patterns, now that it has gone into decline, we will continue to see the increase of warming rates catch up to the emissions of 7 years ago AND with WV and Lapse Rate feedbacks increasing due to forcing increases as SO2 continues to decline globally.

It would not surprise me to find us going into a new, moderate El Nino by next December and a semi-permanent El Nino state by mid 2019.


The first half of 2016 dropped, but there's every reason to believe that it rebounded in the last two quarters as supplies got squeezed hard and the price shot up massively. This has led to increases in mining days in the latter half of the year (especially this fall) as they scrambled to fill the shortfall. Your point largely still stands, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a toothsaw pattern in aerosol output as it decreases (especially considering India's increases in coal usage).
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: ArcticMelt on January 07, 2017, 11:59:05 AM
http://meteomodel.pl/index.php/enso (http://meteomodel.pl/index.php/enso)

Forecast.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on January 07, 2017, 07:49:09 PM
this was what keyed me into the guidance on future ENSO expectations.

 8)

FWIW re: china https://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/9461-China-coal-consumption-not-rebounding-despite-price-increase/en (https://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/9461-China-coal-consumption-not-rebounding-despite-price-increase/en)

And in the long run, demand in these sectors will continue to fall. China has tightened regulation in the thermal power sector, which accounts for around half of its coal consumption. Crude steel capacity will be cut by 12% to 19% in the next five years, which will lead to a decline in coal demand. And in the construction materials sector, demand for coal has already begun to peak and will gradually decline.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2017, 08:18:49 PM
Both of the images were issued today (Jan 7 2017).  The first image shows the TAO subsurface temp and temp anom profiles for the Eq Pac, and show a small tongue of warm water moving eastward at depth from the Western Pacific.  The second image of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, indicates that this warm tongue of deep water has restored this metric back to zero.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2017, 02:55:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +6.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 08, 2017, 09:16:05 PM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas5.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas5.html)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Outlooks (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Outlooks)

Looks like folk are looking to a near/mild Nino forming over the summer 2017? How does this fit in with the QBO refusing to run easterly?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2017, 02:25:08 AM
Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.5:

20161209,20170107,6.5
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 09, 2017, 02:14:14 PM


FWIW re: china https://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/9461-China-coal-consumption-not-rebounding-despite-price-increase/en (https://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/9461-China-coal-consumption-not-rebounding-despite-price-increase/en)


Actually, that shows a 10% drop in output but only a 2.4% drop in consumption (missing the last quarter of course). They don't say whether the 3Q estimate for 2016 is annualized, but typically estimates of that sort are -- so that's a slower decline than either of the last 2 years. Interestingly, they see coal demand stabilizing where it is for the next few years -- right around 4 bn tonnes. Some of the slowing this year is due to the unraveling of the hydropower "bonus" that they were getting the past couple of years due to high rainfall.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2017, 03:50:34 PM
The four attached weekly Nino index plots were all issued today by the BoM through the week ending Jan 8 2017 and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of these plots indicate continuing neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2017, 04:00:18 PM
The following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on Jan 4 2017, indicates that the weekly Nino 3.4 has drifted down to -0.5C:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2
 07DEC2016     22.8 0.3     24.6-0.5     26.0-0.6     28.3-0.2
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1
 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1

The first two attached plots were issued today by the BoM with weekly index values through the week ending Jan 8 2017 (showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively), and indicate continuing neutral ENSO conditions.

The third and four images were issued by NOAA today for the Eq Pac. and show the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  These plot indicate a general slow warming trend.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2017, 03:20:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved to +7.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 10, 2017, 04:04:33 AM
Subsurface temps clearly indicate this Nina is entering the decay phase. 3.4 temps have already begun to respond. We might see some more fluctuations over the next month or so with trade wind bursts, but it should be steady decay after that. A bigger question is whether or not we rebound into a Nino or stay in warm-neutral territory.

The CFS is actually on the lower end of the guidance at this point:

NMME:

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.NMME.png)

And the ECMWF:

(http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-4haVG6.png)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2017, 04:18:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Darvince on January 11, 2017, 11:02:46 AM
And the ECMWF:

([url]http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-4haVG6.png[/url])
The ECMWF plot is giving a 404 error and consequently not showing on the forum, could you try uploading it?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on January 11, 2017, 05:30:32 PM
Subsurface temps clearly indicate this Nina is entering the decay phase. 3.4 temps have already begun to respond. We might see some more fluctuations over the next month or so with trade wind bursts, but it should be steady decay after that. A bigger question is whether or not we rebound into a Nino or stay in warm-neutral territory.

The CFS is actually on the lower end of the guidance at this point:

NMME:

([url]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.NMME.png[/url])

And the ECMWF:

([url]http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-4haVG6.png[/url])


interesting times, if the trend continues to move up in the models, we could very easily see a new El Nino by December that is equal or greater than the 2015/2016 event!
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 11, 2017, 05:46:23 PM
There is absolutely NO way that we will see an El Niño of equal or greater magnitude by December! At best, a weak El Niño might emerge by fall butnot more than that IMO. And remember that we will rather soon enter the spring predictability barrier when the forecast skill is of low confidence.

Personally, I think we willhead for a warm neutral year followed by WWBs by spring 2018 which will result in a moderate or weakly strong event.

Finally, JISAO reports a PDO-value at +1,17 for December which means that the three last years all have had positive values.

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: wehappyfew on January 11, 2017, 10:22:48 PM
It would be nice to see a retrospective comparison of the accuracy of these forecasts over the last 2 years. My impression from looking at the CFSv2 is that they have been consistently low - that is, they forecast more ENSO negative than actually occurs.

The reason I ask about the last two years is that I am wondering if the switch to PDO positive phase, which favors El Nino development over La Nina, has been pushing the results more positive than forecasted.

If so, then a back-to-back repeat El Nino, like the 1940's - which had a similar positive PDO phase - might be more likely. There were actually 3 in a row - 39/40, 40/41, 41/42. If that happens.... yikes!
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 12, 2017, 02:25:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.0:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 12, 2017, 08:30:16 AM
And the ECMWF:

([url]http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-4haVG6.png[/url])
The ECMWF plot is giving a 404 error and consequently not showing on the forum, could you try uploading it?


Sure:

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 12, 2017, 10:17:04 AM
There is absolutely NO way that we will see an El Niño of equal or greater magnitude by December! At best, a weak El Niño might emerge by fall butnot more than that IMO. And remember that we will rather soon enter the spring predictability barrier when the forecast skill is of low confidence.

Personally, I think we willhead for a warm neutral year followed by WWBs by spring 2018 which will result in a moderate or weakly strong event.

Finally, JISAO reports a PDO-value at +1,17 for December which means that the three last years all have had positive values.

Best, LMV

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 12, 2017, 10:26:45 AM
Keep in mind that for the Super Nino, the EC picked up on it slightly in Jan and really keyed in on it in Feb/Mar 2015. Not saying we're gonna have one this year (that would be incredible), but having a decent rebound Nino isn't out of the question at all.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on January 12, 2017, 06:18:07 PM
LV,

thanks, yes you are right that would be very unexpected.  Looking at previous low-estimates of the models to final SST values, I would expect a nino 3.4 index around +1.5 by the end of December.  However, I am also considering that the rapid removal of SE Asian aerosols will drive the deviation (low) of the models even further from the final actual values.

So if this occurs, and there is a high probability that it will.  then the Nino 3.4 index will be between 1.9 and 2.5 in December.  Of course anything can happen between now and then.  That is just how it looks right now (to me).
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 12, 2017, 09:01:27 PM
Dr. Philip Klotzbach is tweeting that the latest forecast from NOAA indicates a 35% likelihood of a new El Niño by fall and a 50% chance of neutral conditions:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/819575986404532224 (https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/819575986404532224)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Archimid on January 12, 2017, 10:11:29 PM
The world is in a warmer state and with less ice than the last strong el niño. Even neutral conditions on a warmer planet may be enough to keep the atmospheric changes going for too long. I think el niño is a small but important part of the recent warming but the PDO is a greater contributor to atmospheric temperatures.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/)

When I see that graph I notice that the PDO has been positive for the last 4 year. Before that during the time of the "hiatus" and following the 1998 el niño it was consistently negative. Historically 4 years would be a short time period for a consistently positive PDO. From that graph it seems that when it goes positive it tends to do so for a decade or more.  So I expect for it to continue being positive and possibly strengthening for a while longer.

As I understand it, during +PDO el niño are more likely and stronger. So it shouldn't be surprising to get an el niño. Worst case scenario would be that the last el niño wasn't a super el niño at all and the real super el niño shows its ugly face in the next 5 years but unlikely next year.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 13, 2017, 04:30:48 AM
Well, we're still stuck with a moderate +PDO after a Nina, so the odds certainly favor a new Nino in that regard. Question is how strong. If it's going to be strong this fall, we'll need to start seeing WWBs in a 2-3. Bjernkes feedback takes time to get going.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 13, 2017, 10:18:50 AM
Worst case scenario would be that the last el niño wasn't a super el niño at all and the real super el niño shows its ugly face in the next 5 years but unlikely next year.

I do not think the last Nino was 'super'. For the years leading up to it ( and 2 failed 'starts' that were pushed down by 'odd trades'?) Global Ocean temps were pushing record/near record warm years. Low ice placed 'new energy' into the system as open water accepted the solar that ice cover would have bounced back into space. Asian 'dimming' is also is reducing allowing more and more solar back down to the surface where it can be re-radiated and held onto by increasing GHG forcings.

Had we not seen the 'false starts' then the record warm pool that was out west in 2014 would have produced a 'super nino' but we were spared. I thought that 2018/19 would be our next Nino ( if PDO kept positive?) so talk of a nino this year is surprising to me? Warmed ocean ,north and south of the regions, may well 'bleed into' the regions and aid temps there pushing near nino data but will the atmosphere comply?

Let's see if we see any WWB's over the next few months.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2017, 04:53:22 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 13, 2017, 08:09:46 PM
The current strong easterly trades are forecasted to abate furing the next couple of day. By the middle of next week the Eastern Pacific looks like it will see normal trade winds which mean that the Niño 3.4-values should rise further more. 
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2017, 02:42:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 15, 2017, 02:26:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 15, 2017, 05:36:22 PM
Worst case scenario would be that the last el niño wasn't a super el niño at all and the real super el niño shows its ugly face in the next 5 years but unlikely next year.

I do not think the last Nino was 'super'. For the years leading up to it ( and 2 failed 'starts' that were pushed down by 'odd trades'?) Global Ocean temps were pushing record/near record warm years. Low ice placed 'new energy' into the system as open water accepted the solar that ice cover would have bounced back into space. Asian 'dimming' is also is reducing allowing more and more solar back down to the surface where it can be re-radiated and held onto by increasing GHG forcings.

Had we not seen the 'false starts' then the record warm pool that was out west in 2014 would have produced a 'super nino' but we were spared. I thought that 2018/19 would be our next Nino ( if PDO kept positive?) so talk of a nino this year is surprising to me? Warmed ocean ,north and south of the regions, may well 'bleed into' the regions and aid temps there pushing near nino data but will the atmosphere comply?

Let's see if we see any WWB's over the next few months.

Anything over 1.5 is considered strong. 2.0+ is unofficially considered super by the standards of most who watch and research it. The peak of this event was 2.3 on the trimonthlies and about 3.0 for the monthlies, so it definitely qualified as super.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on January 15, 2017, 10:33:15 PM
hard to say if the last El Nino was 'super'

is that is regard to all previous El Ninos or with regard to the new climate future that we have just now entered in?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 15, 2017, 11:21:02 PM
hard to say if the last El Nino was 'super'

is that is regard to all previous El Ninos or with regard to the new climate future that we have just now entered in?

Relative to all other historical Ninos, it really doesn't matter which objective measure you use, it stacked up right next to the 82/83 and 97/98 Ninos quite well, whether we're talking trade wind anomaly strength, precipitation indices, WWV (warm water volume), heat content, velocity potential anomalies, etc...

While the baseline is rising -- a 3.0C (Nino 3.4) and 1.8C (Nino 4) monthly figure is a Super Nino. The Nino 4 figure was off-the-charts extreme. It's hard to get much above 1.2-1.3 in that region because the water there is already extremely warm. It's true that it'll get easier to reach those levels as we move forward (and the number of those Super Ninos will probably increase), but right now, that's still Super Nino territory.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2017, 02:29:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Archimid on January 16, 2017, 03:03:21 AM
Thanks Csnavywx. Those seem like great definitions for a super el niño. In that case by definition, the last el niño was indeed a super el niño. From that perspective I would say that the chances of another super el niño possibly one stronger than the last one relatively soon are high.

I mostly say that based on  my interpretation of NOAA multivariate ENSO index here :

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)


The most recent event was the third hottest by max temp.  If a significant part of this el niño was enhanced by global warming, then a bigger, global harming enhanced el niño might be on the way. Like during the 90's. 

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2017, 05:37:42 PM
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, through the week ending Jan 15 2017.  They indicate continuing neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2017, 05:45:49 PM
The following weekly Nino data issued today by NOAA through the week centered on Jan 11 2017, indicates that the Nino 3.4 index has risen up to -0.3 and thus indicates neutral ENSO conditions.  This assessment of neutral ENSO conditions is supported by the four attached plots with the first two being issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 15 2017 for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, while the third image issued today by NOAA shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, unchanged, and the fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp and Temp Anom profiles, also largely unchanged.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1
 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 16, 2017, 09:20:58 PM
Philip Klotzbach:  Approximately 70% of ensemble members from latest ECMWF model run calling for #ElNino by July.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/821001198765342721
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 17, 2017, 02:25:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +7.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 17, 2017, 08:02:34 PM
From TAO/TRITONs data back to March 1991 (e.g from 25 June 1989) I have checked all years that by this time at year emerged into an El Niño. This include 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2014. In addition, the failed development of El Niño in 1993 is also shown. Courtesy: NOAA. Due to the restrictions of 4 pics per post, the other pics are in the next post!

The first four pics are from Jan 16 by 1993, 1994, 1997 and 2002. The second post contains the situation from Jan 16 for the years 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2014.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 17, 2017, 08:09:21 PM
The first pic in my former post is relating to 1993, just a typo error!

Here are the same pics for Jan in 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2014.

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 17, 2017, 08:17:58 PM
To conclude this, here is the same situation for Jan 2017. I continue to believe that we'll see the real deal in 2018/2019! And then also with another jump upward in the global temperature anomalies. Interestingly, most of the cold pool in the East Pac is gone while the majorty of the other years had cool conditions in the East Pac.

Finally, the monthly forecast form ECMWF hint about a possible WWB by the middle of February:

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_51m_full.gif)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 17, 2017, 11:32:16 PM
+1 L.M.V.

Though NOAA might feel tempted to call one if background heat bleeds into the regions via storms etc?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on January 17, 2017, 11:38:59 PM
Left out 2015!

(http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/jsdisplay/dep_lon_EQ_20150114_t_mean_20150114_t_anom_300_0_300_0_hf_2017011714.png)

Started off similarly weak, but we know how that ended. As stated above, we've got a month or two to get the ball rolling. If no significant WWB events have shown up through March, I'd turn quite a bit more skeptical on a significant Nino developing this summer.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2017, 02:39:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 19, 2017, 02:32:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.3, which is in the ENSO neutral range:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 20, 2017, 03:20:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +4.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2017, 02:35:47 AM
Per the following data & the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down from +3.5 yesterday down to +2.8 today:

20161219,20170117,6.3
20161220,20170118,4.6
20161221,20170119,3.5
20161222,20170120,2.8
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 23, 2017, 02:28:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +1.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Darvince on January 23, 2017, 03:59:17 PM
I am not sure where I found this from, if it was this forum or elsewhere, but it seems highly pertinent to this topic, so here:

http://contextearth.com/2016/11/21/presentation-at-agu-2016-on-december-12/ (http://contextearth.com/2016/11/21/presentation-at-agu-2016-on-december-12/)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 23, 2017, 04:21:08 PM
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,179.msg96118.html#msg96118

Since the author was rather reluctant to connect his work to the changes in the environment I put a link to Arctic Cafe about the disharmony qbo does in relation to something else. The ENSO and QBO models are very relevant here as far as I can tell.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 23, 2017, 04:51:56 PM
The following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA thru the week centered on Jan 18 2017, indicates generally ENSO neutral conditions with the Nino 3.4 index drifting up to -0.2C.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1
 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
 18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1

The first two attached plots were issued today by the BoM through the week ending Jan 22 2017, and show the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively.  Both indicate general ENSO neutral conditions.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, with the third image showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom near zero, and the fourth image showing the SSTA Evolution.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 23, 2017, 04:54:29 PM
The four attached images of were issued today by the BoM indicating weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Jan 22 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4, indices, respectively.  Generally, they show ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 23, 2017, 09:28:32 PM
Lots of interesting graphs from Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml)

Monthly:
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)
Seasonal:
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 24, 2017, 02:30:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 25, 2017, 02:26:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 25, 2017, 04:51:36 PM
The first plot shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Jan 25 2017, indicating that this value is now positive.

The second plot shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued Jan 25 2017, that shows the probably beginning of an oceanic Equatorial Kelvin Wave.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 25, 2017, 05:40:01 PM
Looking at the latest NOAA plot of subsurface revealsthat there actually is a very small pocket of +3o warmer water in the far Western Pacific at about 100 m depth. In addition, there is a big pool of warm water in the far Western Pacific which doesn't show up on the TAO/TRITON picture which starts at 150E while NOAAs pic start at 130E.

What we need now is a moderate to strong WWB. Given that we've just left La Niña I think we'll have to wait until late February or early March until we'll see a WWB of decent strength.

To our Emperor ASLR: do you know if there is any page where one can find the OHC for the Indian Ocean?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 26, 2017, 02:35:17 AM
First LMV, I not not have a full service response, but you could check the following links to see if they have anything that you like:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing.shtml#Tropical (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing.shtml#Tropical) Indian Ocean
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_new/pent_oisst_heat_u850_ind_eq_xt.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_new/pent_oisst_heat_u850_ind_eq_xt.gif)

Second, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 27, 2017, 02:40:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 28, 2017, 07:33:36 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 29, 2017, 02:25:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has bounced up to +2.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 30, 2017, 02:27:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 30, 2017, 04:29:03 PM
The following NOAA weekly Nino data indicates that for the week centered on Jan 25 2017 the Nino 3.4 index drifted down to -0.4C; thus indicating neutral ENSO conditions.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1
 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
 18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1

The first two attached images were issued today by the BoM through the week ending Jan 29 2017, & indicate that the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices both show neutral ENSO conditions.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac and show the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  Both of these images indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 30, 2017, 04:32:08 PM
The four attached weekly Nino 1, 2,3 & 4 indices plots, respectively, were issued today by the BoM through the week ending Jan 29 2017, collectively they indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 30, 2017, 06:08:44 PM
The latest NOAA magnum opus (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf) states:

La Niña conditions are present.*


* Based on their January 12th diagnostic discussion (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml).

I can't help but think that the BoM will still say "Inactive" (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/) tomorrow though.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 31, 2017, 12:04:21 AM
The linked January 17 2017 BoM ENSO Overview states that we are in ENSO neutral conditions:

Extract: "Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO neutral

In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wetter or drier period for Australia. When ENSO is in a neutral phase weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors.

Most indicators of ENSO, such as sea surface temperatures, the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the trade winds are within the ENSO-neutral range. However, cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña-like pattern."
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 31, 2017, 02:27:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +1.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 31, 2017, 11:45:01 AM
The BoM ENSO watch does indeed remain "inactive". According to their most recent outlook (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Outlooks):

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely for the remainder of the southern hemisphere summer and into autumn. All models indicate the central Pacific is likely to warm over the coming months, suggesting ENSO-neutral or El Niño are the most likely scenarios for winter/spring 2017.

A neutral ENSO state does not necessarily mean average rainfall or temperature for Australia. Rather it means that ENSO patterns are not driving Australia's weather toward generally wetter or drier conditions. Other shorter-term or smaller-scale climate drivers may dominate and hence influence Australia's climate.

Half the models surveyed suggest strong warming may occur during autumn, with five reaching El Niño thresholds by mid to late winter. It must be noted that this outlook straddles the autumn predictability barrier—typically the ENSO transition period—during which most models have their lowest forecast accuracy.

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2017, 02:26:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: georged on February 01, 2017, 04:01:18 AM
The cloudiness index has also collapsed into neutral conditions very rapidly.

Most concerning to me is the sudden emergence of a large warm patch off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. If it moves north or sits there, it will start to have a significant impact.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2017, 05:49:29 PM
The cloudiness index has also collapsed into neutral conditions very rapidly.

Most concerning to me is the sudden emergence of a large warm patch off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. If it moves north or sits there, it will start to have a significant impact.

Per the three attached images (all issued today), I believe that the oceanic conditions will likely induce at least weak El Nino conditions by late Summer of 2017, and if the atmosphere reinforces this trend we could well see moderate (or stronger) El Nino conditions by the end of 2017.  Good luck in Peru & Ecuador.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: From Peru on February 02, 2017, 01:22:08 AM
Per the three attached images (all issued today), I believe that the oceanic conditions will likely induce at least weak El Nino conditions by late Summer of 2017, and if the atmosphere reinforces this trend we could well see moderate (or stronger) El Nino conditions by the end of 2017.  Good luck in Peru & Ecuador.


Thank you for the "good luck". We will need it.

In northern Peru SST anomalies had hit + 7 °C in some areas (see attached graph). The overall anomaly is 2-3 °C, meaning we are already in a "very strong" El Niño state in the south american coast. Air temperatures are slightly hotter than in 1998, the strongest ENSO in recent history here.

There is widesperad flooding in central and south Peru, now the rains have arrived to the north.

Here are some links (in spanish) for some Peruvian websites:

http://www.imarpe.pe/imarpe/index.php?id_seccion=I0178030104000000000000 (http://www.imarpe.pe/imarpe/index.php?id_seccion=I0178030104000000000000)

https://twitter.com/Mario___Ramirez/with_replies?lang=es (https://twitter.com/Mario___Ramirez/with_replies?lang=es)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 02, 2017, 02:28:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Neven on February 02, 2017, 09:38:10 AM
Welcome, From Peru. I have released your profile, so you can post freely now.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 02, 2017, 05:06:06 PM
The current forecast for MJO shows that we for now are in phase 5 but should move into phase 7 in about a week or so with a moderate strength. This is depicted by U_Albanys forecast too where more westerlies are indicated from February 7-9. Should help to send a downwelling Kelvin wave with warmer waters eastward.

//LMV
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 03, 2017, 02:41:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 04, 2017, 03:20:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 04, 2017, 09:35:19 AM
NOAA has reported an ONI-value at -0,7o for the three-month period November-December-January. And hence, by NOAAs definition we have had a full-fledged La Niña with five lapping trimonths at or below -0,5o. From NOAAs page on individual months ONI-value, January came in at -0,65o which was the same value as for December 2016. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii)

ASLR: Thank you for the links to Indian Ocean! :)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 04, 2017, 06:31:59 PM
NOAA has reported an ONI-value at -0,7o for the three-month period November-December-January. And hence, by NOAAs definition we have had a full-fledged La Niña with five lapping trimonths at or below -0,5o.

The first linked Scribbler article is entitled: "There’s a La Nina Developing — So Why is the World Still Heating Up?", and it indicates anthropogenic polar amplification is starting to over-ride the ENSO induced natural variability in the GMSTA.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/04/theres-a-la-nina-developing-so-why-is-the-world-still-heating-up/

Extract: "By themselves, these abnormally high temperatures at the poles would be odd enough. But when taking into account that La Nina should still be cooling the globe off, it starts to look like this severe polar warming has jostled the La Nina cooling signal a bit — turning it back toward warming by late fall. And if that is what’s really happening, then it would imply that the natural variability signal that is produced by ENSO is starting to be over-ridden by polar amplification based influences. In other words, there appears to be another signal that’s starting to intrude as a polar amplification based temperature spike."

In the second linked article entitled: "From Pole to Pole, Global Sea Ice Values are Plummeting", Scribbler notes that La Nina conditions "… tend to push more ocean and atmospheric heat toward the poles — particularly toward the Arctic."  This indicates to me that the ENSO cycle represents a positive feedback that is accelerating both polar amplification and climate sensitivity.  If so then the formally declared La Nina is likely accelerating long-term global warming:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/15/from-pole-to-pole-global-sea-ice-values-are-plummeting/

Extract: "… the trajectory going into 2017 for the Arctic at present doesn’t look very good. Both sea ice extent and volume are now at or well below the previous low marks for this time of year. Remaining thick ice positioned near the Fram Strait generates a physical disadvantage to the ice in general. In addition, NOAA has announced that La Nina conditions are now present in the Equatorial Pacific. And La Nina events tend to push more ocean and atmospheric heat toward the poles — particularly toward the Arctic."
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 04, 2017, 08:14:24 PM
When next bigger El Niño arrives, the Arctic will be in tremendeous trouble. Latest U_Albany forecast depicts a weak-moderate WWB which should strengthen the weak downwelling Kelvin wave. And MJO will move into phase 7 in about 5-7 days with a fairly high amplitude according to both GFS an ECMWF.

The WWB will be limited to 120-150oE while strong easterlies initially will hover around the Dateline but are forecasted to weaken in about a week or so. Worth to mention is that the last time we saw a WWB was by New Year 2015/1016 which is about 13 months ago now.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2017, 02:25:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 06, 2017, 02:44:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 07, 2017, 04:08:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 07, 2017, 08:22:04 AM
According to Copernicus, January 2017 was with a slim margin to 2007 the second warmest such on record. It was however 0,17oC cooler than January 2016. https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/january-2017 (https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/january-2017)

Copernicus outcome is very realistic and I believe NOAA will put January 2017 on a solid third place while NASA should put it very close to 2007. Worth to mention is that the current weak La Niña is fading but should still put some flavors to the global temps which is how we should see this January in context.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 07, 2017, 02:32:27 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino index data through the week centered on Feb 1 2017, the Nino 3.4 index has drifted up to -0.3C.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
 18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3


The first two attachments were issued by the BoM (for the Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively) for the week ending Feb 5 2017, indicating continued neutral ENSO conditions.

The third image was issued today by NOAA shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the fourth image ECMM - MJO forecast from Feb 6 to 20, 2017; both indicating possible future conditions the could support a mild El Nino later this year.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 07, 2017, 02:34:51 PM
The four attached images where issued by the BoM showing weekly Nino data for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, through the week ending Feb 5 2017.  They general show neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2017, 02:35:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: crandles on February 09, 2017, 09:12:59 PM
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the
Northern Hemisphere spring 2017.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf)

Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral(3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Niño as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017).
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 10, 2017, 02:57:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on February 10, 2017, 03:31:54 PM
Climate Prediction Center says La Nina is no longer extent. Enso neutral now plus 50-50 chance of some sort of El Nino late summer / early fall. But are also saying as usual that the Spring barrier makes for little confidence in forecasts made at this time.

Is there anywhere an explanation of this spring barrier that a moderately intelligent person has a chance of comprehending ?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: crandles on February 10, 2017, 03:56:49 PM
Perhaps
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break)

It is more like a lull or a valley in ENSO forecasting accuracy.



Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2017, 02:22:32 AM
Per the following data yesterday, the SOI stayed constant at -0.8, while today, per the attached plot, the SOI surged up to +0.1:

20170108,20170206,0.2
20170109,20170207,-0.3
20170110,20170208,-0.8
20170111,20170209,-0.8
20170112,20170210,0.1
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 13, 2017, 03:32:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI stayed constant at +0.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 13, 2017, 05:26:39 PM
The following NOAA weekly Nino data indicates that through the week centered on Feb 8 2017, the Nino 3.4 index has moved up to +0.1:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
 18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2

The first two attached images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Feb 12 2017, and show the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, indicating neutral ENSO conditions with a slight trend towards El Nino like conditions.

The last two attached images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, and show the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution respectively, & both indicate neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 13, 2017, 05:29:29 PM
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM with weekly Nino data through the week ending Feb 12 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They indicate neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 14, 2017, 02:28:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.0:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: aslan on February 14, 2017, 07:13:17 PM
As forecasted -and shown by AbruptSLR-, extremely strong MJO is ongoing, with reinforced convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific. This will help the nascent El Niño for sure. Some models like GFS are even showing the MJO to linger in phase 7 - 8 for some weeks.

(http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/352795ensplumefull.gif)

It only lacks some twins cyclones in the Pacific now :D
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2017, 02:21:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.0:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 15, 2017, 10:09:06 PM
The last few days have seen an impressive rising of the SSTAs in the Niño 3.4-area (Tropical Tidbits values) with a magnitude of about ~1o. It's not impossible that CDAS Niño 3.4-index will rise very close to El Niño territory for a short while. Niño 3 is already above +0,5o above average.

The passage of the recent very strong MJO generated a weak WWB which so far only has shown a moderate increasing of the subsurface temps.

Latest attached forecast from ECMWF shows a very distinct possibility of a most likely moderate El Niño by late summer/early fall. And a few members don't even rule out the possibility of a strong or super Niño. IMO, a weak or moderate El Niño is the most likely outcome as well as a neutral one. The ECMWF forecast also shows a really interesting thing in their ensemble for the Niño 4 - area. As you can see in the second attached pic the clustering of the members is very tight for this area foreseen to be 0,6-1,3o warmer by August. This can be compared to the 2014-2016 Niño which peaked at +1,8oC in this area.

If the ECMWF forecast is correct, then we'll see another year with high bleaching as well as new record high global temperatures.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 16, 2017, 02:30:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 16, 2017, 02:20:50 PM
 Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml) appears to be bullish on El Niño appearing this year.

Monthly:
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: pileus on February 16, 2017, 04:43:50 PM
ASLR (and others) - any thought on the utility of this daily index?  More inherent volatility or can it be used in the toolbox to track the longer term trend?


Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 16, 2017, 09:31:20 PM
See Ben Knolls tweet with UKMET ensmble forecast calling for a strong El Niño by May-June-July:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/831803636489412608 (https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/831803636489412608)

//LMV
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on February 16, 2017, 11:09:52 PM
International Research Institute for Climate and Society tweeted the model spaghetti graph for NINO 3.4

https://twitter.com/climatesociety/status/832262934852145152

They caveat high spring model uncertainty but many models (and model avg) show weak El Nino by July.

very shocking considering what the models had in April and December last year!

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 17, 2017, 02:06:09 AM
Does that mean I should take the current projections I posted with a grain of salt?
 :o
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 17, 2017, 02:58:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 17, 2017, 07:34:06 AM
Tor Bejnar: yes, right now we should take the current projections with a grain of salt. So far, we haven't seen any big WWB which usually, but not always, is a precursor of an El Niño. Back in early 2014, the models were bullish in developing a strong El Niño. As we know, a strong El Niño did develope but a year later. The atmosphere didn't want to shake the hand of the ocean in 2014 as we then came out from cool neutral conditions.

ASLR & Co: JISAO came in with a PDO at +0,77 for January.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on February 17, 2017, 08:07:37 AM
Does that mean I should take the current projections I posted with a grain of salt?
 :o

the thing is that the failure of the models is only happening in one direction, up.  it is expected that reductions in asian aerosol emissions will lead to a long term positive pacific decadal oscillation and far stronger el ninos (and weaker or non-existent la ninas).
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 17, 2017, 10:42:01 AM
The daily SOI value at -51,97 should be one of the absolutely lowest that have been recorded by Longpaddock. If my memory is correct, we didn't have such low values during the last Super El Niño. Of course, this very low value is related to a tropical low which has a low chance to evolve into a TC. Nevertheless, it's an impressive low value!
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 17, 2017, 04:43:30 PM
While daily values fluctuate quite a bit, nevertheless the attached daily Nino 3.4 plot thru Feb 17 2017, shows an impressively rapid rise in SSTA in the Nino 3.4 zone.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: aslan on February 17, 2017, 11:40:23 PM
Perú also is monitoring the situation. Since the start of February, the SENAMHI (the local MetOffice) has issued an alert for a coastal El Niño :

http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/load/file/02204SENA-71.pdf (http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/load/file/02204SENA-71.pdf)

https://www.facebook.com/notes/senamhi-peru/estado-del-sistema-de-alerta-alerta-de-el-ni%C3%B1o-costero/10154730059795860 (https://www.facebook.com/notes/senamhi-peru/estado-del-sistema-de-alerta-alerta-de-el-ni%C3%B1o-costero/10154730059795860)

And flooding are already occuring here and there in the country. These days, it is in Piura, with a Nivel 4 (alerta roja) :

https://twitter.com/maxprugue/status/832710807653801988 (https://twitter.com/maxprugue/status/832710807653801988)

http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/?p=0140&tip_alert=022 (http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/?p=0140&tip_alert=022)

(http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/5621902017021022SENAME.jpg)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 18, 2017, 02:22:49 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: aslan on February 18, 2017, 08:55:20 AM
Also, for the Venezuela the situation is dire. After enduring an historic drought in 2016, the warming of the Pacific is again reducing rainfalls amount in the country. The closest station is showing almost no rain in December and January:

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=82022&ndays=50&ano=2017&mes=2&day=18&hora=7&min=26 (http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=82022&ndays=50&ano=2017&mes=2&day=18&hora=7&min=26)

La repressa de Guri, the main dam of the country and the main electricity plant of the country, is again in a bad situation. El gobierno is relectuant to speak about the situation, saying some void words like this :

http://www.eldiariodeguayana.com.ve/natural-descenso-actual-las-aguas-del-embalse-guri/ (http://www.eldiariodeguayana.com.ve/natural-descenso-actual-las-aguas-del-embalse-guri/)

But el nivel de Guri is probably below 260m above sea level now, which implies that electricity generation is probably reduced. At least is is not as bad as in 2016, when temperatures soared to records levels for months and months, accelerating the drying of country and increasing the consumption of electricity; to the point that in April 2016 the country nearly missed a total blackout. But the Guri was not able to replenish, lefting el nivel de Guri below su cota operativa at the end of the rainy season. And now that the dry season, even though the temperatures are near normal, the level is lowering at a worrisome pace.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 18, 2017, 02:32:52 PM
Also, for the Venezuela the situation is dire. After enduring an historic drought in 2016, the warming of the Pacific is again reducing rainfalls amount in the country. The closest station is showing almost no rain in December and January:

In general terms the IPCC forecasts for climate change induced changes in global precipitation patterns have erred on the side of least drama; so I would not be surprised if the recent drought in Venezuela, and the floods in Peru, that you have pointed-out may be as much related to high climate sensitivity to global warming (the attached AR4 image for scenario A1B shows this change in precipitation pattern by 2100) as to the ENSO cycle.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on February 18, 2017, 05:53:54 PM
just came across this presentation on tipping points, the ENSO impact to the amazon is clear as well as other feedback systems.  (pdf file)

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjSisqbgZrSAhVoxlQKHZQ4COgQFghYMAg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.exeter.ac.uk%2Fcodebox%2Fexeterevents%2Fdownload.php%3Fid%3D364&usg=AFQjCNFOV9H8yFyv-73GXrQpre6c1QSF3g&sig2=Us66tbNKaN3N6Gtr7IWAKQ&bvm=bv.147448319,d.cGw (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjSisqbgZrSAhVoxlQKHZQ4COgQFghYMAg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.exeter.ac.uk%2Fcodebox%2Fexeterevents%2Fdownload.php%3Fid%3D364&usg=AFQjCNFOV9H8yFyv-73GXrQpre6c1QSF3g&sig2=Us66tbNKaN3N6Gtr7IWAKQ&bvm=bv.147448319,d.cGw)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2017, 02:19:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on February 19, 2017, 05:46:57 PM
Nina was likely weaker due to warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern subtropical Pacific. That tends to produce an anomalous component of wind that destructively interferes with the typically strong trade wind setup that allows Nina to intensify. As a result, that intensification didn't really happen and the virtual entirety of the event was continually blunted by this effect. Also, if you look at the entirety of the event, it even looked like a Nina imbedded in a larger scale pattern more typical of Nino, spatial patterns and all. The positive PDO mode that has stuck around will help favor a Nino so long as we get some cooperation from the MJO (again) over the next 1-2 months and the remnant Nina cold pool near the dateline continues to dissipate quickly.

That remnant dateline cold pool/maritime continent warm pool setup is helping prevent a decent WWB from emerging because it favors higher pressure near the dateline and lower near the Maritime Continent, which favors an easterly component. When that dissipates, the door will be fully open to constructive interference from tropical cyclones or the MJO and Bjerknes feedback. We really only have 2 months for this to start coming to pass if another strong Nino is to take hold by fall as it take some time for that feedback to come into fruition -- barring of course a run of really good conditions like the CFSv2 monthly is trying to portray starting in April/May with massive WWB activity.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on February 19, 2017, 07:06:06 PM
If you live in the sea and are uncomfortably warm, an El Nino would be very welcome ?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2017, 02:29:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -1.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2017, 08:28:36 PM
Per the following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on Feb 15 2017, the ENSO remains neutral, with the Nino 3.4 at +0.2:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0

The first two images were issued today by the BoM showing weekly data through the week ending Feb 19 2017, indicating that ENSO remains neutral for both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac showing evolutions for both the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; both indicating neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2017, 08:30:51 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM with weekly Nino data through the week ending Feb 19 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All data indicates neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: DrTskoul on February 20, 2017, 09:28:39 PM
The neutral is not what it used to be...
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 21, 2017, 02:29:33 AM
The neutral is not what it used to be...

Granted, this is now a warm neutral instead of the cool neutral that it used to be.

Also, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.0:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Bruce Steele on February 21, 2017, 04:19:50 AM
It seems like a return to El Niño conditions in the 3.4 region may coincide with the last couple months of the California rain season. We have been getting rain that has made this feel like an El Niño even though it wasn't but I wonder if a return to elevated surface water temperatures in the 3.4 region might extend wet conditions into April ?
 I also see Apocalypse4real  has a focus on a potential El Niño in his February. Blog post

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2017, 02:34:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: aslan on February 22, 2017, 09:59:00 AM
In general terms the IPCC forecasts for climate change induced changes in global precipitation patterns have erred on the side of least drama; so I would not be surprised if the recent drought in Venezuela, and the floods in Peru, that you have pointed-out may be as much related to high climate sensitivity to global warming (the attached AR4 image for scenario A1B shows this change in precipitation pattern by 2100) as to the ENSO cycle.


Yes there is probably also a global warming component in there ;)

Some cyclonic activity is occuring in the Southern Pacific, not too far from equator :

(http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/722372abpwsair.jpg)

But the current cyclonic season in the SH is extraordinarly inactive and not helping much the El Niño.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2017, 02:44:13 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 24, 2017, 02:28:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2017, 02:37:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -0.2 (and thus is neutral):
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 26, 2017, 02:44:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2017, 04:02:15 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -1.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2017, 04:17:49 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino index values thru the week center on Feb 22 2017, and the two attached BoM plots (of the Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively) thru the week ending Feb 26 2017, ENSO is neutral (but on the positive side):


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 27, 2017, 06:43:23 PM
A very impressive Niño 1+2 value at +2,3(!) But no WWB is foreseen for at least a week ahead. We need to see a WWB of decent strength before the end of March. At least if we are in for a stronger El Niño.

Personally, I lean to an idea of borderline El Niño conditions by fall followed by strong WWB by early 2018 rendering a big El Niño for 2018/2019. And as a consequence, another exceptonally warm year. La Niña of a possible decent strength should then emerge in 2019/2020.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: oren on February 27, 2017, 11:51:07 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino index values thru the week center on Feb 22 2017, and the two attached BoM plots (of the Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively) thru the week ending Feb 26 2017, ENSO is neutral (but on the positive side):


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
I rarely comment in this thread as it's usually beyond me, but Looking at the 3.4 chart I find it very much noteworthy that the postulated La Nina supposed to follow after our monster El Nino has made just one tiny touchdown below -0.5, and is now already shooting back to positive (though still neutral) territory.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2017, 02:06:31 AM
For those who like more details, the four attached plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Feb 26 2017, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2017, 02:28:13 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -1.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: peterlvmeng on February 28, 2017, 06:43:45 AM
The global temperature is not increasing linearly but stepwise. Every large temperature goes up accompanied by el nino, for example 1997/1998. After that the temperature is quite flat without obvious rising until 2015. So if the next el nino comes to strike in 2017/2018, I wonder the global temperature will break the record or not. Anyway, arctic ecology is sinking on the way.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 28, 2017, 08:34:49 AM
The outlook from BoM reveals that temperature anomalies in Niño 4 likely will be higher compared to Niño 3 which means that if an El Niño is going to form it's likely to be a "Modoki El Niño" like it was in 2010. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 28, 2017, 01:15:12 PM
The BoM ENSOmeter needle has moved:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20170228.archive.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20170228.archive.shtml)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 28, 2017, 06:31:12 PM
Niño 1+2 is now a staggering +2,2o warmer than normal according to CDAS  :o But easterly wind anomalies will likely dominate the next week, and also in the Eastern Pacific.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2017, 03:55:28 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant for the third day at -1.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2017, 02:26:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant for the fourth day at -1.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2017, 07:52:31 PM
The attached plot (issued March 2 2017) shows a marked increasing in the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom over the past several days.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: DrTskoul on March 02, 2017, 10:21:47 PM
It's getting warm out there
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2017, 06:37:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2017, 02:27:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 05, 2017, 02:33:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.0:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2017, 02:29:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -1.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2017, 06:35:21 PM
The following NOAA Nino index values through the week centered on March 1 2017, shows the western Tropical Pacific cooling with the Eastern Tropical Pacific remaining relatively warm.  This and the attached images indicate that at the moment ENSO neutral conditions prevail.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1

The first two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, with the first image showing that the Upper Ocean Heat Anom remained stable but positive; while the second images shows the SSTA Evolution which indicates that the Western Tropical Pacific surface temps remain neutral for this time of year.

The third image issue today by the BoM indicates that the Nino 3.4 drifted downward, as did the IOD shown in the fourth image also issued today by the BoM.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2017, 06:38:34 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for weekly Nino values through the week ending March 5 2017.  They respectively show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices; which taken together, indicate that an El Nino mechanism has not formed yet, and the neutral conditions prevail.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2017, 02:29:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2017, 02:29:31 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2017, 02:54:38 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2017, 02:55:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.0:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2017, 02:29:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 12, 2017, 02:28:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2017, 02:17:30 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2017, 04:42:25 PM
Per the following data and images the Eq Pac surface temperatures have cooled a little bit but the Upper Ocean Heat Anom (see the last image) has continued to drift upwards, indicating that we remain in an ENSO neutral pattern:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2017, 04:44:44 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending March 12, 2017, and show weekly Nino values for the Nino 1, 2 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All show slight cooling but continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 13, 2017, 06:45:01 PM
Strong trades seems to continue for at least a week or so. MJO will likely be non-existent or very, very weak for the next 2 weeks or so. If a strong El Niño is going to take shape this year we need so see some decent WWB soon.

Eyeballing the subsurface temps, the warm pool at the dateline has weakend the last week or so and only a minor pocket of +2o anomaly remains. OTOH, the cold pool with -1o anomaly in the Eastern Pacific has grown over the last week.

JISAO are in with a PDO value at +0,70 which is about the same like in January (+0,77).

According to Dr. Mike Ventrice, we are now behind 1997 wrt AEI (Atmospheric ENSO Index): https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/841268414610067462 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/841268414610067462)

(http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif)

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2017, 02:13:30 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: seaicesailor on March 14, 2017, 12:21:42 PM
May I ask why so warm in el Niño 1,2? Does this reflect a different phenomenon than el Niño? Cause in Perú they have a bad feeling. Just curious, may somebody following this know.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2017, 03:18:28 PM
May I ask why so warm in el Niño 1,2? Does this reflect a different phenomenon than el Niño? Cause in Perú they have a bad feeling. Just curious, may somebody following this know.


I do not know why the Nino 1 & Nino 2 regions are so warm; but my apprehension is that as global warming continues and the oceans continue to warm, that the Eastern Equatorial Pacific will/is warming faster than the average ocean increase.  I believe that this has been the case during past interglacial warm periods.

Edit: For example see:


Karlos G. D. Kochhann, Ann Holbourn, Wolfgang Kuhnt, James E. T. Channell, Mitch Lyle, Julia K. Shackford, Roy (17 September 2016), “Eccentricity pacing of eastern equatorial Pacific carbonate dissolution cycles during the Miocene Climatic Optimum”, Paleoceanography, Vol: 32, pp 1176-1192 DOI:10.1002/2016PA002988

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016PA002988/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016PA002988/full)

Abstract: “The Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; ~16.9 to 14.7 Ma) provides an outstanding opportunity to investigate climate-carbon cycle dynamics during a geologically recent interval of global warmth. We present benthic stable oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records (5–12 kyr time resolution) spanning the late early to middle Miocene interval (18 to 13 Ma) at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1335 (eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean). The U1335 stable isotope series track the onset and development of the MCO as well as the transitional climatic phase culminating with global cooling and expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet at ~13.8 Ma. We integrate these new data with published stable isotope, geomagnetic polarity, and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanner-derived carbonate records from IODP Sites U1335, U1336, U1337, and U1338 on a consistent, astronomically tuned timescale. Benthic isotope and XRF scanner-derived CaCO3 records depict prominent 100 kyr variability with 400 kyr cyclicity additionally imprinted on δ13C and CaCO3 records, pointing to a tight coupling between the marine carbon cycle and climate variations. Our intersite comparison further indicates that the lysocline behaved in highly dynamic manner throughout the MCO, with >75% carbonate loss occurring at paleodepths ranging from ~3.4 to ~4 km in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Carbonate dissolution maxima coincide with warm phases (δ18O minima) and δ13C decreases, implying that climate-carbon cycle feedbacks fundamentally differed from the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial pattern, where dissolution maxima correspond to δ13C maxima and δ18O minima. Carbonate dissolution cycles during the MCO were, thus, more similar to Paleogene hyperthermal patterns.”

See also the following associated linked article:

http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/article/10.1002/2016PA002988/editor-highlight/ (http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/article/10.1002/2016PA002988/editor-highlight/)

Extract: “... swift transitions to “hothouse” conditions—that had profound consequences for life. These spikes could serve as analogues for the future of our warming planet.

The cause of these spikes may in part be due to changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, an important greenhouse gas. But the complex feedbacks between the Earth’s climate and the carbon cycle have been hotly debated, and there is little scientific consensus on this issue.

To help unravel the relationship between the carbon cycle and climate during an extended warm period, Kochhann et al. present a data set of stable isotope and carbonate records. These records indicators of changing temperature and the growth or contraction of ice sheets, are from an Integrated Ocean Drilling Program drill site in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

& also:

https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.863700 (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.863700)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: seaicesailor on March 15, 2017, 12:11:56 AM
Thank you ASLR.
It's March, excessive rains have continued pouring in many regions after January, media keep calling it el Niño. Hoping it abates and does not merge with another real Niño.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2017, 02:21:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.0 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2017, 02:26:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2017, 04:09:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: crandles on March 17, 2017, 03:50:03 PM
(http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/figure4-2.gif)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 17, 2017, 06:50:54 PM
NASA has posted an article about the possibility that warm left over water from the previous El Niño may fuel a new one.

Links to the article:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/could-leftover-heat-from-last-el-ni-o-fuel-a-new-one (https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/could-leftover-heat-from-last-el-ni-o-fuel-a-new-one)

BoM shows an aggressive move to a potentially strong El Niño. 94% of the models develop an El Niño by July:

(http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20170314.poama_nino34.png)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2017, 09:28:11 PM
Thank you ASLR.
It's March, excessive rains have continued pouring in many regions after January, media keep calling it el Niño. Hoping it abates and does not merge with another real Niño.

The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "Signals of Climate Change Visible as Record Fires Give Way to Massive Floods in Peru".

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/17/signals-of-climate-change-visible-as-record-fires-give-way-to-massive-floods-in-peru/

Extract: "The climate extremes Peru has experienced — flipping from flash drought and wildfires to flash flood in just 5-6 months is exactly the kind wrenched weather we can expect more and more from climate change. For as the Earth warms, the amount of moisture evaporated from lands, oceans, lakes and rivers increases. As a result, the hydrological cycle gets kicked into higher gear. And what this means it that droughts and fires will tend to become more intense even as rains, when they do fall, will tend to be heavier."
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 17, 2017, 09:44:19 PM
ASLR & Co: I checked the article and one very interesting thing came up there! According to the article, the last time Peru suffered from a "coastal El Niño" was back in 1925. This is interesting as it coincides with a flip in the PDO from its negative phase into the positive phase that lasted for about 20 years. While we can't say anything definitely about this, it still is an odd thing that might (or maybe not) be just a coincidence.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2017, 02:24:29 AM
Per the following data and attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -4.8:

20170215,20170316,-4.8
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on March 18, 2017, 07:11:13 PM
sudden and rapid warming off of peru this is not your grandfather's el nino

http://news.trust.org/item/20170317231203-gvjhc (http://news.trust.org/item/20170317231203-gvjhc)
Abnormal El Nino in Peru unleashes deadly downpours; more flooding seen
At least 62 people have died and more than 70,000 homeless as Peru's rainy season has delivered 10 times as much rainfall than usual

A local El Nino phenomenon, the warming of surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, will likely continue along Peru's northern coast at least through April, said Dimitri Gutierrez, a scientist with Peru's El Nino committee.

Local El Ninos in Peru tend to be followed by the global El Nino phenomenon, which can trigger flooding and droughts in different countries, said Gutierrez.

The U.S. weather agency has put the chances of an El Nino developing in the second half of 2017 at 50-55 percent.


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.3.16.2017.gif (http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.3.16.2017.gif)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 18, 2017, 09:45:56 PM
Jai Mitchell: this kind of El Niño off Peru is unusual but not unheard of. According to the Guardian (see the link to Robert Scribbler that ASLR posted), Peru experienced a "coastal El Niño" back in 1925.


Link to Scribblers post: https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/17/signals-of-climate-change-visible-as-record-fires-give-way-to-massive-floods-in-peru/ (https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/17/signals-of-climate-change-visible-as-record-fires-give-way-to-massive-floods-in-peru/)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2017, 02:32:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -2.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on March 19, 2017, 08:11:04 PM
Jai Mitchell: this kind of El Niño off Peru is unusual but not unheard of. According to the Guardian (see the link to Robert Scribbler that ASLR posted), Peru experienced a "coastal El Niño" back in 1925.


Link to Scribblers post: [url]https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/17/signals-of-climate-change-visible-as-record-fires-give-way-to-massive-floods-in-peru/[/url] ([url]https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/17/signals-of-climate-change-visible-as-record-fires-give-way-to-massive-floods-in-peru/[/url])


My Lord,

forgive my insolence but your post caused me to perform some cursory background research on the 1925 event. after a few minutes I was able to locate this paper: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS32A..05T (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS32A..05T)
The strong far-eastern Pacific El Niño in 1925-26, revisited

according to newspaper reports from that year. Furthermore, ICOADS ship wind data shows that the confluence of northerly and southerly winds near the coast, a proxy for the ITCZ, presented its southernmost position for the twentieth century at this time, a couple of degrees latitude further south than during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events. The convective anomalies appear to have then helped trigger the zonal ENSO feedbacks.


Since outgoing longwave anomalies is a good proxy for the ITCZ location I looked at the anomaly map below

(https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/olr/olr.anom.30day.gif)

indeed, the ITCZ does appear to be more positioned in the southern hemisphere but I am wondering if this is more to do with a lack of northern hemisphere band.  and that the southern is really fairly normal (see scale of anomaly).  good find on RS site, he does great work.

please be sure that My post was not to place doubt upon you, your dark powers, the supremacy of the Sith but that I wanted to help enlighten the. . .(gasp). . . (choke) . . . (gasp). . . (thud!)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2017, 02:25:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: TerryM on March 20, 2017, 05:38:24 PM
...(gasp)...(choke)...(gasp)...(thud) --- indeed!


How was the weather further north affected by the 1925 event?


California seems finely balanced between catastrophic drought and catastrophic flooding. Will a 1925 style El Nino put his pudgy little thumb on the scale favoring atmospheric rivers inundating the Golden State, or will he favor the building of another resilient ridge defecting all precipitation?


It's not that I'm indifferent to the well being of our Peruvian brothers, rather that I fear the price of pecans might spiral out of control and affect the bottom line of the Californian Nut Exporters. California's reputation as a source of nuts, nut cases and other related products could be irreparably damaged.


Terry
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2017, 06:57:03 PM
Per the following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA, and per the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, SSTA and Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; and the last two images issued by the BoM today for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively; the ENSO conditions are slightly more favorable for El Nino conditions, but remain ENSO neutral.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2017, 06:59:10 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino data through the week ending March 19 2017, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They all show relatively little change from last week, and thus conditions remain ENSO neutral.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: magnamentis on March 20, 2017, 08:16:00 PM
looks like that we deal with "dizygotic twins" talking about "Niños"  ;)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2017, 02:24:24 AM
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +1.1:

20170218,20170319,1.1
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2017, 02:28:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 23, 2017, 02:25:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2017, 02:27:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 25, 2017, 02:26:02 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 25, 2017, 08:51:37 PM
Weird Coastal El Nino Clobbers Peru: 80 Killed, $1.4 Billion in Damage
...
What’s puzzling this time is that the 2014-16 El Niño, the strongest since 1997-98, officially ended more than half a year ago, and it didn’t bring exceptional rain to Peru. Weak La Niña conditions then took hold in late 2016, only to quickly dissipate in early 2017. Meanwhile, sea-surface temperatures off Peru—where the concept of El Niño originated—have skyrocketed since the first of the year. The Niño1+2 region has been running more than 2.0°C above average since late February (see Figure 2 above). This warming has been so strong, and the rainy pattern so clear, that Peru’s national agency for El Niño research, ENFEN, issued a coastal El Niño alert that’s been in place since February 15. Meanwhile, the broader-scale Pacific pattern still hasn’t meshed with the standard El Niño criteria used by NOAA and other international agencies.
...
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/weird-coastal-el-nino-clobbers-peru-80-killed-14-billion-in-damage (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/weird-coastal-el-nino-clobbers-peru-80-killed-14-billion-in-damage)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2017, 03:27:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2017, 03:25:04 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.4 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2017, 05:03:56 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on March 22, 2017, and both the attached BoM weekly plots (Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively) thru the week ending March 26 2017, and the attached NOAA plots (Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively) issued today; we remain in ENSO neutral conditions.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2017, 05:06:41 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino plots thru the week ending March 26 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, the plots indicate ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2017, 04:13:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +5.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on March 28, 2017, 04:58:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +5.6:

 :o that is about 3 months ahead of schedule!
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: DrTskoul on March 28, 2017, 12:24:06 PM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +5.6:

 :o that is about 3 months ahead of schedule!

Schedule?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on March 28, 2017, 05:59:50 PM
nevermind, I had flipped the sign.  :-[
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2017, 01:43:51 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 30, 2017, 03:54:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 30, 2017, 04:38:58 PM
 Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml) remains bullish on El Niño appearing this year.  Of course "bullish about the future" is different from El Niño has arrived.

Monthly:
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 31, 2017, 03:25:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.0:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Susan Anderson on March 31, 2017, 07:35:39 AM
I've posted this terrific Earth Observatory piece elsewhere; it seems interesting enough to repeat. I saw mention of a "mini" ENSO around the Chile area as well.

There's a half minute video if you scroll down. Underwater El Nino video of heat travel.  Gorgeous stuff.
"Under the Surface of El Niño" March 21, 2017
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89846&src=eoa-iotd (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89846&src=eoa-iotd)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 01, 2017, 05:31:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2017, 03:29:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2017, 03:29:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: TerryM on April 03, 2017, 05:51:48 AM
ASLR
Do we need a new definition for El Nino in response to the huge damage now being done in the East Pacific near the equator this year? Even in California El Nino and La Nina weather patterns seem skewed.
Could global warming simply be overwhelming these previously useful prognosticating tools?
Terry
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2017, 04:49:20 PM
Per the following NOAA data and the attached plots, the ENSO is still neutral (although the Eastern Eq Pacific is atypically warm):



                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2017, 04:51:55 PM
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the weekly Nino indices thru the week ending April 2, 2017, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They indicate neutral ENSO conditions (with an atypically warm Nino 2 index).
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 03, 2017, 05:19:28 PM
I would like to STRONGLY urge you all to look at this GFS forecast as Lewi Cowan has put up:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/848651299327549440 (https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/848651299327549440)

From Tropical Tidbits (courtesy Lewi Cowan) you can look at the whole scenario:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&pkg=Tocean_eqx (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&pkg=Tocean_eqx)

Here is the forecast for June and September, and remark this, from my perspective, the scenario is calling for a RETROGRADE El Niño with a big cold pool in the Western Pacific and a warm dito in the East Pacific(!!!):

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017040218/cfs-mon_01_Tocean_eqx_none_2.png)

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017040218/cfs-mon_01_Tocean_eqx_none_5.png)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2017, 05:23:51 PM
ASLR
Do we need a new definition for El Nino in response to the huge damage now being done in the East Pacific near the equator this year? Even in California El Nino and La Nina weather patterns seem skewed.
Could global warming simply be overwhelming these previously useful prognosticating tools?
Terry


Terry,

I do not know why the Nino 1 & Nino 2 regions are so warm; but my apprehension is that as global warming continues and the oceans continue to warm, that the Eastern Equatorial Pacific will/is warming faster than the average ocean increase.  I believe that this has been the case during past interglacial warm periods.

Edit: For example see:


Karlos G. D. Kochhann, Ann Holbourn, Wolfgang Kuhnt, James E. T. Channell, Mitch Lyle, Julia K. Shackford, Roy (17 September 2016), “Eccentricity pacing of eastern equatorial Pacific carbonate dissolution cycles during the Miocene Climatic Optimum”, Paleoceanography, Vol: 32, pp 1176-1192 DOI:10.1002/2016PA002988

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016PA002988/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016PA002988/full)

Abstract: “The Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; ~16.9 to 14.7 Ma) provides an outstanding opportunity to investigate climate-carbon cycle dynamics during a geologically recent interval of global warmth. We present benthic stable oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records (5–12 kyr time resolution) spanning the late early to middle Miocene interval (18 to 13 Ma) at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1335 (eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean). The U1335 stable isotope series track the onset and development of the MCO as well as the transitional climatic phase culminating with global cooling and expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet at ~13.8 Ma. We integrate these new data with published stable isotope, geomagnetic polarity, and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanner-derived carbonate records from IODP Sites U1335, U1336, U1337, and U1338 on a consistent, astronomically tuned timescale. Benthic isotope and XRF scanner-derived CaCO3 records depict prominent 100 kyr variability with 400 kyr cyclicity additionally imprinted on δ13C and CaCO3 records, pointing to a tight coupling between the marine carbon cycle and climate variations. Our intersite comparison further indicates that the lysocline behaved in highly dynamic manner throughout the MCO, with >75% carbonate loss occurring at paleodepths ranging from ~3.4 to ~4 km in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Carbonate dissolution maxima coincide with warm phases (δ18O minima) and δ13C decreases, implying that climate-carbon cycle feedbacks fundamentally differed from the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial pattern, where dissolution maxima correspond to δ13C maxima and δ18O minima. Carbonate dissolution cycles during the MCO were, thus, more similar to Paleogene hyperthermal patterns.”

See also the following associated linked article:

http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/article/10.1002/2016PA002988/editor-highlight/ (http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/article/10.1002/2016PA002988/editor-highlight/)

Extract: “... swift transitions to “hothouse” conditions—that had profound consequences for life. These spikes could serve as analogues for the future of our warming planet.

The cause of these spikes may in part be due to changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, an important greenhouse gas. But the complex feedbacks between the Earth’s climate and the carbon cycle have been hotly debated, and there is little scientific consensus on this issue.

To help unravel the relationship between the carbon cycle and climate during an extended warm period, Kochhann et al. present a data set of stable isotope and carbonate records. These records indicators of changing temperature and the growth or contraction of ice sheets, are from an Integrated Ocean Drilling Program drill site in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

& also:

https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.863700 (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.863700)

Also see the attached image that indicates that if ECS is indeed higher than AR5 expects (see the middle panel in the image) then the Eastern Eq Pac should warm faster than most of the rest of the world with continued Anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Edit: Also see LVM's post above.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 03, 2017, 08:31:27 PM
AbruptSLR, The lysocline in the Pacific is shoaling at a rate of about + 2 meters per year. As we load CO2 into the atmosphere that portion absorbed by the oceans transfers to depth by both physical means ( down welling of very cold highly saline waters in both Antarctia the North Atlantic and the Sea of Okhotsk ) and via the biological carbon pump. This transfer of carbon to depth causes acidification of deep waters and leads to a shoaling of the lysocline. This is however a fairly slow process that is of course concurrent with atmospheric heating but I think in the short term not likely causative of a retrograde El Niño .  We have been having a large conversation about the Ding paper of late and maybe the shift of the Atmospheric circulation pattern that may have some implications for a retrograde El Niño?
 Maybe the shift in the GPH over Greenland and the low pressure systems being pulled eastward and riding up the Atlantic might have an effect in the Pacific as well ? We expect an El Niño to form as hot water is pulled from a dome of hot water in the Western Pacific via MJO processes , westerly wind bursts, and a relaxation of easterly winds in the tropics. If the MJO instead strengthens over the Eastern Pacific it would seem to me we should also expect much different rain patterns to develop than those we expect with a strong MJO in the Central Pacific.
 Maybe I am speculating too much . I wasn't correct on what I expected to happen with the 2015-2016 El Niño and the subsequent La Niña . But if a very  strong MJO centers over the far Eastern Pacific I would also expect rain patterns to be much different from what we usually expect an El Niño to deliver.
I know a I am getting way in from of any working knowledge here but if this new El Niño is somehow associated with what we are seeing in the Atlantic this is going to be a very strange year.


Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: TerryM on April 04, 2017, 01:58:22 AM

I know a I am getting way in from of any working knowledge here but if this new El Niño is somehow associated with what we are seeing in the Atlantic this is going to be a very strange year.


You then believe that we will see a classic El Nino before the year is out?


Watching Neven's new Total Perceptible Water graph I've been struck by how dependent California seems to be on a high pressure system that either allows atmospheric rivers to deluge the state, or maintains an equally deadly drought. In recent years this appears to be having more effect than El Nino / La Nina, unless the high is somehow interconnected with ENSO cycles.


I lost a tenant in Riverside due to flooding in her garage, a new phenomena striking a 60 year old structure. Nothing compared to your struggles WRT unpredictable weather patterns, but still a unique event in a 60 year time frame.


Do we need some new long range forecasting tool, or must farmers simply plant and hope for the best.


Terry

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2017, 03:29:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 04, 2017, 05:18:12 AM
Terry, I don't think this potential El Niño is anything I would call "classic" in how it is going to develop,  if it does. I have learned a lot from AbruptSLR and Lord M Vader over the last few years but the way this is developing is something new to me.  Definately not like anything I have lived through. Also nothing like it in the satellite era. I would like to learn more about how a coastal El Niño forms and what processes drive it's formation .
 OT, I am descended from several generations of dry land farmers here in Southern Calif. because when they first moved here there weren't agriculture wells. Even as a kid I remember lots of land planted in Lima beans that is now houses and vineyards. Beans are planted in late spring when you already know how much soil moisture you have. In good years you planted Lima beans, in marginal years you planted black eyed peas, and when it didn't rain you waited another year .  There is so much dependent on wells drilled into aquifers that can't maintain themselves with current levels of pumping. Progress?
 
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: TerryM on April 04, 2017, 08:37:27 AM
Bruce

I first learned of El Nino when, after reading Two Years Before the Mast, I wondered why the weather was so different on both of his California visits. Many years later my family owned the home next to Louis Robidoux's place, where Dana often visited.


Huge flooding in Riverside, and later floods that brought desert archaeological sights to light kept El Nino in mind, but it's ASLR and Lord Vader that have been bringing me up to date on the science behind the curtain.


My Riverside home is smack in the middle of what had been one of the greatest orange groves in the world, once owned by a great aunt after her husband, 60 years her senior, met his (un)timely death. She made good money selling oranges, but got very rich selling orange grove lots.


In Nevada El Nino means rain, flash floods and a full Lake Mead. No El Nino and Las Vegas dries up. No El Nino and no power from Boulder dam. No El Nino and Southern Californians return to wherever they came from.


If global warming ends the ENSO cycle, millions will starve, tens of millions will migrate, and hundreds of millions will be negatively affected. And this is but one system in one well developed country.


Terry
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2017, 03:25:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 05, 2017, 08:00:48 PM
Latest U_Albany forecast hints about a decent possibility for some kind of minor WWB activity during the next 10 days.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2017, 04:52:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 06, 2017, 05:35:51 PM
In the just released seasonal forecast pdf for the upcoming hurricane season over the Atlantic basin, Dr. Phil Klotzbach has made a thoroughly discussion about ENSO at page 20-30. Of special interest, he points out that the potential type of El Niño later this year was a feature more common during El Niño events before 1980. At this forum, we have mostly discussed ENSO from the perspective of a WWB pushing warm water eastward.

At page 26 in the pdf there is an abstract of Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982) discussing El Niño development from east to west across the tropical Pacific. Rasmussen and Carpenter were both NOAA scientists.

The link to the pdf is: http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/04/2017-04.pdf (http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/04/2017-04.pdf) and should be an interesting read for everyone of us here in this thread!
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2017, 03:28:22 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +2.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2017, 06:25:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +2.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2017, 04:09:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 09, 2017, 05:44:31 AM
Lord M Vader, Thanks for the linked Colorado state PDF. It appears a strong MJO in the Western Pacific would disrupt rather than strengthen any potential El Niño this year. Something to watch anyhow.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on April 09, 2017, 07:00:34 PM
Eric Blake posted a long-range GEFS forecast that shows a strong east pacific burst that portends rapid SST intensification and may greatly increase El Nino potential this year.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/851080169716674560
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 09, 2017, 07:38:41 PM
Jai Mitchell: I sawthat too. However, according to Mike Ventrice, ECMWF argues for a weaker MJO-event. See the interesting discussion at the tweets: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/851073818412109824 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/851073818412109824)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2017, 03:36:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has jumped up to +3.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 10, 2017, 08:57:18 AM
Guys!!! Minor but fairly strong WWB is here around 144-154oE as a setup of "twin cyclones" as shown by Eartnullschool. See attached pic! Highly interesting development for a future prospect of an El Niño later this year! Courtesy: Earth.nullschool.net

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2017, 05:47:04 PM
The following data and first two images were issued today by NOAA.  The first two images are for the Eq Pac with the first image showing the SSTA Evolution & the second showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom.  The third & fourth images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 9 2017, and show the Nino 3.4 & IOD, indices, respectively.  Also, of this data shows that we remain in an ENSO neutral condition, but it appears that as the Eastern Eq Pac cools, the Western Eq Pac appears to be setting itself up for a possible classical El Nino later this boreal summer.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2017, 05:49:25 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 weekly indices, respectively, thru the week ending April 9 2017.  This data indicates that we remain in ENSO neutral conditions.

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on April 10, 2017, 06:28:11 PM
forgive me dark one for my lack of understanding of the infinite powers of the dark side but. . . isn't the forecast for a westerly burst in the East Pacific and a strong MJO event in the West Pacific (120E) not incompatible?

I am hardly an apprentice and don't even have a working light saber.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2017, 03:25:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2017, 03:25:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +4.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Darvince on April 12, 2017, 07:04:17 AM
For SOI, where is the boundary where it's considered an El Niño or La Niña?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 12, 2017, 07:47:57 AM
AbruptSLR
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #231 on: March 15, 2014, 11:23:21 PM »
Quote
The following statement (through March 9 2014) and attached SOI chart (through March 15 2014, and note that on March 15 the 30-day moving average SOI index is -7.5), from the Australian BoM, supports the idea that we are moving towards an El Nino event beginning around mid-April 2014:

"Southern Oscillation Index:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past two weeks, having dropped steadily over the past month from a peak of about +14. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 9 March is −6.3.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions."


Darvince, Here is an old post ... from ASLR.  Strangely 2014 didn't produce an El Niño but at the time it surely showed positive signs it would. We are currently in the spring ( and unpredictable ) El Niño season.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 13, 2017, 03:26:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2017, 03:26:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 15, 2017, 03:27:05 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2017, 03:26:01 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2017, 03:27:58 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +0.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2017, 04:51:11 PM
Per the following data and first two images (of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively) issued today by NOAA, we remain ENSO neutral; however, there are indications that a classical oceanic Kelvin wave may be forming in the Western Eq Pac as indicated by the third attached image of the TAO Subsurface Temp and Temp Anom profiles issued April 17 2017.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2017, 04:55:24 PM
The two attached images where issued today by the BoM with weekly indices values through the week ending April 16 2017, for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively.  Both indicate ENSO neutral conditions, currently.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2017, 04:58:42 PM
The four attached weekly Nino data were all issued today by the BoM through the week ending April 16 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  Jointly show current ENSO neutral conditions with the prospect that the Western Tropical Pacific may be warming up.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2017, 06:23:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -0.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 18, 2017, 06:54:37 AM
The PDO index just came in for March. Still holding positive at + .74 a slight increase from last month at + .70
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2017, 03:24:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -1.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 20, 2017, 03:16:07 AM
“To put a finer point on it, March was the warmest non El Niño month modern civilization has witnessed”

https://twitter.com/dekearndt/status/854811371615256581
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2017, 03:27:28 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -2.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 21, 2017, 12:47:24 AM
El Niño, La Niña, and global temperature.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Archimid on April 21, 2017, 12:50:48 AM
Nice graph.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2017, 03:31:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: be cause on April 21, 2017, 05:05:46 PM
a few weeks ago the surface temperature anomaly off Peru was +6'C .. now it is @ -2'C . I have read nothing @ this dramatic change .. When at its peak the world air temp anomaly was also high .. now it has fallen by 2/3rds . Any relationship ?
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 21, 2017, 06:21:27 PM
According to this very important tweet from Dr. Mike Ventrice, they have found the reason for the big discrepancy between CFSv2 U850 fcst and ECMWF EPS.

According to Ventrice, this is due to a climatology difference. The CFSv2 is using the period 1999-2010 while ERA-Interim uses 1981-2010 where the latter incorporates the two super El Niños in 1982-83 and 1997-98. This should be the reason to why CFSv2 plots are overdoing WWBs.

See the tweet: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/855131882232610818 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/855131882232610818)

Edit: just compare the most recent forecast runs wrt MJO! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 22, 2017, 03:28:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2017, 03:28:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2017, 03:28:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2017, 04:28:35 PM
The following weekly data and the first two images (of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively) were issued today by NOAA (for the week centered on April 19 2017), and the last two images where issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 23, 2017, showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices, respectively.  Collectively, this information indicates that we are most likely beginning to transition from an ENSO neutral, into a weak El Nino pattern (assuming that the atmosphere follows the oceanic lead in the next few months).


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2017, 04:31:48 PM
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino values thru the week ending April 23, 2017, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This information supports the position that we are likely beginning to transition from ENSO-neutral into weak El Nino conditions (assuming the atmosphere follows the indicated oceanic lead in the next couple of months):
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2017, 03:31:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -5.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2017, 09:37:42 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 27, 2017, 03:26:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2017, 05:57:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has surged up to -5.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2017, 05:50:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2017, 03:25:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 30, 2017, 07:35:56 PM
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a WWB! Both GFS and ECMWF agrees about this!☺
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on May 01, 2017, 02:24:13 AM
(Westerly Wind Burst)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westerly_wind_burst
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2017, 03:27:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.6:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2017, 05:24:29 PM
Per the following weekly data and the first two plots (showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively issued by NOAA; and the last two weekly plots issued today by the BoM (showing the Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively); the ENSO conditions appear to me moving towards condition more favorable for a weak El Nino developing this boreal summer:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2017, 05:26:59 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending on April 30, 2017, were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, these plots indicate that the probability of a weak El Nino beginning this boreal summer are improving:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2017, 05:30:22 PM
The two attached plots (of the Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa Wind Anom & the ECMM MJO forecast from May 1 to 15, 2017, respectively) indicate that the WWB that both LMV & jai posted about yesterday, appears to be associated with some weak MJO activity near the International Dateline.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2017, 03:25:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2017, 03:38:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 04, 2017, 03:30:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 05, 2017, 03:28:30 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2017, 03:31:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2017, 03:22:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 07, 2017, 10:56:32 AM
In a few days we should briefly be back in Niño territority, at least for a few days or so until very low daily values likely will be replaced by higher ones. Latest Longpaddock 30-day average value is now down to -7,47. The threshold for Niño area is -8. The corresponding 90-day average is higher being at -3,43 for today.

The lack of significant WWBs make me more confident that we most likely will see warm neutral/borderline El niño conditions later this year followed by strong WWB in early 2018 and a strong El Niño lasting into 2019 followed by a La Niña in 2019/2020. That will almost surely guarantee a record warm 2019, maybe 2018 also will be record warm, depends on the first half of the year as well as how much melting and heat trapping in the ocean we'll see in the Arctic in 2017.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on May 07, 2017, 03:50:18 PM
In a few days we should briefly be back in Niño territority, at least for a few days or so until very low daily values likely will be replaced by higher ones. Latest Longpaddock 30-day average value is now down to -7,47. The threshold for Niño area is -8. The corresponding 90-day average is higher being at -3,43 for today.

The lack of significant WWBs make me more confident that we most likely will see warm neutral/borderline El niño conditions later this year followed by strong WWB in early 2018 and a strong El Niño lasting into 2019 followed by a La Niña in 2019/2020. That will almost surely guarantee a record warm 2019, maybe 2018 also will be record warm, depends on the first half of the year as well as how much melting and heat trapping in the ocean we'll see in the Arctic in 2017.

That's a definite possibility. If Nino never fully develops or stays very weak and the North Pacific Mode goes positive (with the attendant gradual displacement of the WPac warm pool) then it could set up a full Nino next year (ala 2014's setup to the 15-16 Nino).
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 07, 2017, 05:56:50 PM
Csnawywx: My thoughts precisely! Of interest is how much more the warm pool in the Pacific can grow until it has to be released? Subsurface temps at about 150 m depth around the dateline is 2-3 degrees warmer than normal (According to NOAA). As there are conflicting signals in the PAcific it should take some time until the atmosphere is more aligned to the ocean.

Of some note is that the ONI-value for FMA was up to +0,1.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2017, 03:29:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -8.3, and thus is in the El Nino range for the first time in months:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2017, 07:54:20 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data (through the week centered on May 3 2017), and the first two images issued by NOAA today for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the Eq Pac SSTA evolution, as well as for the last two images issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 7 2017 for the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively, the Eastern Eq Pac continues to cool while the Western Eq Pac is slowly warming, resulting in a plateau near the border of El Nino like conditions:


                    Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3

Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2017, 07:57:31 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM, showing weekly Nino values thru the week ending May 7 2017 for the Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots confirm that the Eastern Eq Pac is continuing to cool while the Nino 4 zone continues to warm; resulting in a plateau near El Nino like conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2017, 03:26:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -8.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 10, 2017, 05:31:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -10.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 10, 2017, 11:12:42 AM
Longpaddock reports a 30-day average value plunging down to -10.3. A continued plunging down should be in the pipeline for the next 2, maybe 3, days. Beyond that, some very low daily values from the middle of April will likely be replaced with higher values.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2017, 03:31:01 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -10.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 12, 2017, 03:25:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -12.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on May 12, 2017, 07:24:20 AM
we have officially crossed into El Nino generation territory, if it persists. . .
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 12, 2017, 09:43:03 AM
PDO for April is in. A decent rise to +1,12 according to JISAO continues the long streak of positive PDO.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 13, 2017, 03:25:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -12.2:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2017, 03:36:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -11.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 15, 2017, 03:34:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -10.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 15, 2017, 04:56:27 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices data and the first two NOAA images for the Eq Pac issued today for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued by the BoM thru the week ending May 14 2017 for the Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively; the ENSO has more or less plateaued near the border with El Nino-like conditions:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 15, 2017, 04:59:36 PM
The four attached images of weekly Nino indices data thru the week ending May 14 2017, were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They more or less indicate plateaued ENSO conditions at the border of El Nino-like conditions:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 16, 2017, 03:27:13 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -9.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 17, 2017, 03:38:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -7.3:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 18, 2017, 03:26:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -7.1:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: crandles on May 19, 2017, 12:11:58 AM
latest IRI plume

(http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/figure4-2.gif)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Dry_Land_Is_Not_A_Myth on May 19, 2017, 03:57:16 AM
As a quick newbie question, what is the interpretation of the 30 day moving SOI? The more negative the value the more likely an El Nino ? And I know I just caused teeth gnashing and hair pulling by anyone who understands that graph well. Just looking for a starting point to begin my own research. I was just hoping to get a hook/enticing preview to jump start my attention.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 19, 2017, 06:18:46 AM
As a quick newbie question, what is the interpretation of the 30 day moving SOI? The more negative the value the more likely an El Nino ? And I know I just caused teeth gnashing and hair pulling by anyone who understands that graph well. Just looking for a starting point to begin my own research. I was just hoping to get a hook/enticing preview to jump start my attention.

Sustained values (for a few months or more, for the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI): above +8 indicate La Nina conditions, between +8 & -8 indicate ENSO neutral conditions; and below -8 indicate El Nino conditions.  However, the ENSO index is the most volatile of ENSO indicators, so other indicators like the MEI are more reliable, while the Nino 3.4 index is the most commonly referenced indicator.

Thus, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -6.0; which generally indicates neutral conditions:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 20, 2017, 03:26:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.9:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 21, 2017, 03:26:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -4.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 22, 2017, 03:27:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.8:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 22, 2017, 05:50:45 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on May 17 2017; the first two NOAA Eq Pac. images for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two BoM images for the week ending May 21 2017, for the Nino 3.4 & IOD, indices, respectively: ENSO conditions are just below the El Nino border, and remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 22, 2017, 05:53:12 PM
The four attached images were issued by the BoM today for the weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending May 21, 2017.  These data indicate ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2017, 03:28:58 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.7:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 24, 2017, 03:28:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.4:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 24, 2017, 07:31:04 PM
From Michael Lowry via Twitter: https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/867383507399704578 (https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/867383507399704578)

Absolutely weird!!  >:(


Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: oren on May 24, 2017, 10:00:30 PM
Insane. Putting out one's eyes doesn't typically solve problems.
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: solartim27 on May 25, 2017, 02:10:01 AM
From Michael Lowry via Twitter
From another link in that feed
Michelle: Wow, that was an impressive Coastal El Niño! Since you had a front row seat can you put it in more context?

Ken: I wish we had been able to predict it with months in advance. It seems to have come out of nowhere. Although the far-eastern Pacific was somewhat warm throughout 2016, the warming in January 2017 was intense and abrupt.
.......
Ken: From the limited data we have from 1925 (we only have some ship-based measurements along a few commercial tracks), we see there was a distinct progression of the warming sea surface from the east towards the west, accompanied by development of westerly wind anomalies that are part of the coupled ocean-atmosphere physics of ENSO. This led to the 1925-26 broad-scale Pacific warming, what you and many around the world simply call “El Niño”. ;)

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-forecasters-offices-getting-coffee (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-forecasters-offices-getting-coffee)
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 25, 2017, 03:55:02 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.5:
Title: Re: 2017 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 26, 2017, 03:21:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.2: