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Messages - Archimid

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I voted 2017, but the lack of an El Niño and the cooler N. Atlantic gives me pause. 

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 29, 2017, 06:43:13 PM »
I agree. I think their experience tells them that this too shall pass, as it always have. They think they just have to ride the rough times and then things will get better.  In this case that experience is our worst enemy because with SLR and CC this is only going to get worse.

Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: May 29, 2017, 06:38:14 PM »
Yeah I would have to agree with that. The chance for literally ice free arctic this year is as close to 0 as you describe.  Only by defining ice free with some arbitrary non zero number  do we get significant probabilities. Thanks for the clarification.

Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: May 29, 2017, 05:47:35 PM »
one would have to put the volume in to account which more or less tells how much energy will be needed to get rid of it all and volume numbers, albeit decreasing, are simply too high to make a melt-out probable. i mean just calculate the energy to melt the now given amount of ice withing the remaining time and i believe that chances, even though never "zero" are as close to zero as one can assume.

after all the laws of physics remain in effect at all times, hence it's a very matter of fact amount of energy needed to melt the current ice volume.

I don't think the probability is almost 0 anymore. I think it may be as high as double digits. Read Neven's update on the latest PIOMAS

If this year's melt is equal to the average of the last 10 years, there will be around 2500 km3 left in September (mind you, the 2012 record low minimum is 3673 km3). If there's as much melt as in 2010 or 2012, this year's minimum will barely go above 1000 km3. I don't want to know what the Arctic looks like if that should happen.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 29, 2017, 05:24:22 PM »
How Rising Seas Drowned the Flood Insurance Program

Recently, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers pumped more than ten million cubic yards of sand from offshore dredges to widen Long Beach Island’s beaches and dunes – part of a Sisyphean-like effort to protect the island’s $15 billion of high-calorie real estate. But there is a problem. The sand keeps washing away. A series of storms over the last two years gouged the neatly groomed beaches, costing tens of millions in additional repairs. When all is said and done, the project will cost more than half a billion dollars, most of the money paid by U.S. taxpayers.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 29, 2017, 03:11:38 AM »
The good: No El Niño. There is a relatively large extent of ice in the Barents. There is a relatively large extent of snow on the periphery of the Arctic. The North Atlantic seems cooler than in both 2016 and 2015. 

The bad: It is still warmer than the 20th century average in the arctic. The ice is thin. The pacific side looks in rough shape.

The ugly: The Nares Straight

Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: May 29, 2017, 03:00:49 AM »
Marine Species Distribution Shifts Will Continue Under Ocean Warming

Scientists using a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions on the Northeast U.S. Shelf have found that commercially important species will continue to shift their distribution as ocean waters warm two to three times faster than the global average through the end of this century. Projected increases in surface to bottom waters of  6.6 to 9 degrees F (3.7 to 5.0 degrees Celsius) from current conditions are expected.

There is something fishy about that article.

Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: May 28, 2017, 11:11:07 PM »
I disagree that the chance for ice free September or even August is 0. The chance is certainly low and decreasing but it is not 0. A melt similar to 2012 will be enough to puts us in "virtuallly ice free"  territory. The chance for that is low but is there.

I think everyone should be at least aware of the possible danger and planning and preparation for the worst are very much in order with the caveat that it is a low probability event.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 26, 2017, 05:45:45 PM »

This is the actual result of Russiagate. Between racist protectionists in the US and the influence of Russia through traitors like Manaforte and Flynn the plan is to weaken the US influence over the world. This will open space for the Chinese, Russian and other powerful forces to takeover the sphere of influence of the US.

Will this be good for the world? Maybe. Will this be good for  the US, most definitely not. Will it be good for Trump inc and accomplices? Absolutely.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 26, 2017, 03:20:18 PM »
SSTA from 2015,2016,2017 according to NOAA

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 26, 2017, 03:01:16 AM »
and people decided not to settle for a hypocrite again, but to form a massive middle finger.

Pretty much.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 25, 2017, 05:29:33 PM »
Maybe enough of that ice gets pushed west past the straight and into the Beaufort. The winds and drift maps do not favor that outcome, but maybe we get lucky.

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: May 24, 2017, 10:51:04 PM »
Trump is basically blinding NASA about climate change. This will be remembered as treason against mankind.

Trump's 2018 Budget Request Axes 5 NASA Earth-Science Missions

The other four Earth-science projects to get the ax in the proposed 2018 budget are the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite; the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3 (OCO-3) experiment; the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder; and the Earth-viewing instruments aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft.

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: May 24, 2017, 02:47:54 PM »
More censorship. It seems that the fraudsters are settling in.

Interior Dept. censors climate change from news release on coastal flooding: ‘It didn’t add anything’

Instead, according to three of the study’s co-authors, the following line was censored from the release: “Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding.” The significance of the line is underscored by the fact it is the very first line of the study’s abstract. The Post reports that “the decision to change the news release came from officials at the Interior Department itself.”

I voted "No gap will increase mainly for reasons other than albedo", but albedo is important. Specially over land. I think the gap will increase because the remaining ice will be easy to melt, warm air will keep flowing in and I think there is huge potential for export through the garlic press.

The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: May 22, 2017, 07:07:58 PM »
I find this article fascinating.

The Quantum Thermodynamics Revolution

Maxwell and others wondered how a law of nature could depend on one’s knowledge — or ignorance — of the positions and velocities of molecules. If the second law of thermodynamics depends subjectively on one’s information, in what sense is it true?

A century later, the American physicist Charles Bennett, building on work by Leo Szilard and Rolf Landauer, resolved the paradox by formally linking thermodynamics to the young science of information. Bennett argued that the demon’s knowledge is stored in its memory, and memory has to be cleaned, which takes work. (In 1961, Landauer calculated that at room temperature, it takes at least 2.9 zeptojoules of energy for a computer to erase one bit of stored information.) In other words, as the demon organizes the gas into hot and cold and lowers the gas’s entropy, its brain burns energy and generates more than enough entropy to compensate. The overall entropy of the gas-demon system increases, satisfying the second law of thermodynamics.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 22, 2017, 03:16:20 PM »
Quite literally, less livable.

At least 161 people have died due to heat stroke in Telangana

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 18, 2017, 07:45:31 PM »
Alrighty then.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 18, 2017, 06:27:30 PM »
I'm saddened that the topic name changed. This thread was not just about renewables but the technological, economic and social breakthroughs that will lead to mass adoption of renewables.

Consequences / Re: California weather extremes and climate
« on: May 18, 2017, 02:39:20 AM »
I'm so glad for California. They are on the front line of climate change. California is leading by example and if the drought extended for much longer the economic and social impact of droughts could have stopped them from leading.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 17, 2017, 05:07:21 PM »
Neven. now I know you are deranged. Don't you know? Brawndo's got what plants crave. It's got electrolyte.  ;)j/k

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 17, 2017, 12:35:00 AM »
A blue ocean event will be felt over the whole northern hemisphere. The world will not be same afterwards. Everything will change for everybody, mostly for the worse. That includes super powers, Trump, Putin, you and me.

Neven that video is disingenuous. I couldn't get past 5 minutes. They are using exactly the same strategy as climate change deniers to lessen the gravity of the situation. Sow doubt here, muddle the facts there, make fun of very serious topics ect.

The reality is that both Trump and Putin are accomplished criminals. They know the laws and have teams making sure anything they do is untraceable. The only reason some of Trump's lackeys have been caught is because they were foolish enough to think they were not being watched.

Right now it does it matter the extent to which Trump was aware of Russian moves. Trump has already committed obstruction of justice.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 16, 2017, 08:17:30 PM »
For those who haven't noticed, the information that Trump gifted to Russia will likely end up known by Russian ally, Al Assad, who will probably fill incinerators with people related to this source.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 16, 2017, 08:02:49 PM »
I don't think there will ever find enough evidence for a criminal case, at least not on Putin's side or for Trump personally. Many of the middlemen have already been caught and many more may be caught. It hasn't phased anyone. The ones that can do something stand to lose too much to do something.

The proof will be in Trumps presidency. The policy that Putin was able to infiltrate is already large at work. The US is surrendering international power. protectionism and xenophobia are taking hold. Trump is doing a fantastic job denying climate change. If Trump is not impeached, the policies will take hold and Trump will increase his influence through judges, Attorneys and all sort of named officials whose number one selection criteria was loyalty to Trump. Trump will continue to leak information to Putin since he already set the precedent.

Now eventually, once the US is weak, Putin will turn on Trump. At that point Trump will realize how foolish he was.... hahaha just kidding, he will never realize he was duped, he'll just blame somebody else.

The proof will be the downfall of the US and the rise of Russia. 

Edit: the preceding analysis completly ignores a blue ocean event. If that happens forget about economics and politics as we know them.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 15, 2017, 11:57:39 PM »
Remember that meeting at the request of Putin the day after the head of the FBI was fired? That was Putin's men collecting.

Trump revealed highly classified information to Russian foreign minister and ambassador.

President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador in a White House meeting last week, according to current and former U.S. officials, who said Trump’s disclosures jeopardized a critical source of intelligence on the Islamic State.

The information the president relayed had been provided by a U.S. partner through an intelligence-sharing arrangement considered so sensitive that details have been withheld from allies and tightly restricted even within the U.S. government, officials said.

The article notes this is perfectly legal. The president can declassify documents whenever he wants.  So nothing to see here. It is perfectly legal for the president to reveal national security sources if he wants.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 15, 2017, 06:01:45 PM »
I noticed that too. I wonder if there is a real physical phenomena behind this or is it an artifact of the measure.

Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: May 15, 2017, 05:18:58 PM »
Migratory birds bumped off schedule as climate change shifts spring

New research shows climate change is altering the delicate seasonal clock that North American migratory songbirds rely on to successfully mate and raise healthy offspring, setting in motion a domino effect that could threaten the survival of many familiar backyard bird species.

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: May 13, 2017, 06:51:34 PM »

just for the record, I don't consider ^^^these^^^ people to be 'conservative scientists'  I see them as ideologically captured morons who are wittingly or unwittingly working as a fifth column in the war against humanity's survival.

I only call them scientist because they had some publications in the past. You are probably right that they lost the privilege of calling themselves scientists a long time ago.

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: May 13, 2017, 02:28:54 PM »
More errors identified in contrarian climate scientists' temperature estimates

A new study suggests there are remaining biases in the oft-corrected University of Alabama at Huntsville atmospheric temperature estimates

I want to point out the graph in the article which show the corrections over time that this "scientific" group made on their data set.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 13, 2017, 03:42:40 AM »
The first animation is a comparison of the Atlantic side of the Arctic on May 11 2016 vs May 11 2017.
The second one is the same but for the Pacific side.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 12, 2017, 04:17:20 AM »
Trump was right about something. He could indeed shoot someone on the middle of the street and not lose voters. They are blind.

Anyone following the climate change debate is already very familiar with this phenomenon. Anyone who has lived in a repressive regime is also familiar with this phenomenon.

I really wish I was wrong about Russiagate, but how can I possibly ignore all the evidence that keeps presenting itself? Its like climate change. The evidence just keeps piling up.

As a preventive argument: I would love nothing more than much closer relations with Russia, so long as those relations are about stopping climate change and defending human rights of all people.  However the association I see is one for massive oil drilling, climate change denial and xenophobia. I'm not interested in that at all.

Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roofs - Musk Style
« on: May 12, 2017, 03:22:08 AM »
I think that an important part of the price comparison is the back up power capacity. A fair comparison of the price of solar roof  vs regular roofs would be:

 the price of solar roof (which includes batteries in the price) - energy savings
 the price of regular roof + the price of a generator+ generator maintenance + the price of fuel + the value of not having to get fuel in an emergency.

Both of those adjusted for the useful life expectancy of each item.

I think the solar roof will be unbeatable in many markets.

Another advantage is that people that depend on emergency generators are limited by the fuel they can store or get.  In an emergency it may not be  easy to find tens of gallons of fuel a day. With solar roof you have fuel delivered to your rooftop every time the sun comes out. Plus it is completely silent.

Running a generator is extremely loud. In an emergency, that might not be a good thing to do.

Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roofs - Musk Style
« on: May 11, 2017, 10:10:41 PM »
plus it looks better. And with powerwall it serves as back up power.

Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: May 11, 2017, 03:41:37 PM »
US Glacier national park losing its glaciers with just 26 of 150 left

Warming temperatures have rapidly reduced the size of 39 named glaciers in Montana since 1966, according to comparisons released by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and Portland State University. Some have lost as much as 85% of their expanse over the past 50 years, with Glacier national park, site of 37 of the surveyed glaciers, set to lose all of its eponymous ice formations within the next few decades. Of the 150 glaciers that existed in the park in the late 19th century, only 26 remain.

Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roofs - Musk Style
« on: May 11, 2017, 03:04:58 PM »
Yep, a flat roof. I hope to eventually cover it with with a solar roof with a respectable incline.

Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roofs - Musk Style
« on: May 10, 2017, 10:49:02 PM »
This is a similar approach as he took with cars. The solar roof is cheaper than even asphalt roofs when   energy savings are taken into account. With out energy savings the solar roof is still cheaper than high end roofs. Of course, the percentage of homes that have high end roofs is small, but that is still a very large number of homes. Probably enough homes to justify the manufacturing equipment, installation fleet and a few more years of R&D. By the time we get Solar Roof 2 the price  should approach the price of asphalt roofs over time.

This is an absolutely brilliant strategy.

I find a solar roof coupled with batteries very alluring. In my neck of the woods sometimes there are power outages on a monthly basis. In the past 3 years I have been with out power for more than 2 days at least twice. I have a small solar panel/battery/inverter for emergency lighting and a small generator to run the fridge a few hours every day and run the water pump if need be. Still, that it is highly inconvenient. A solar roof would make such inconvenient events disappear at the same time that it saves me money.

Even if I could afford a solar roof, I have the problem that my home is concrete with a reinforced  concrete roof. The architecture of solar roof is incompatible with my home. But my roof is old and it already have leaks that I control with roof chemicals. My hope is that a solution compatible with the architecture of my house emerges where I don't have to re-seal the roof, but I just invest in a solar roof solution for concrete houses.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 10, 2017, 04:10:31 PM »
In 2012 and 2017 extent recovered greatly during spring and then hit a cliff in June that made  those years record low extent years.

2016 was different. 2016 suffered an early dip in spring (which I attribute to el niño) and then the freezing season resumed as "normal" (for current climate change state).

The first attachment is NSIDC Sea ice extent for years 2007,2012,2016,2017

2017 is unique in that there is no precedent for such a warm arctic winter, that produced such a low volume of sea ice.  I do think that a cliff in extent is very near, probably by the end of the week.  The second image is a nullschool screenshot for 5/13. There will be compaction and melting in the CS and more separation on the BS.  It may be somewhat offset by the ice being pushed into the Atlantic.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 10, 2017, 03:34:10 PM »
Honor. I think the US achieved greatness as a nation because it was lucky enough to have enough honorable people to maintain a powerful democracy. It wasn't the strength of the constitution or the set of laws. It was honorable people doing the right thing more often than not.

Honor has been degrading slowly for decades. Bush2 and citizens united accelerated the decay of honor. Obama tried to reestablish it but the forces of fear and intolerance took over the Republicans and things actually got worse. Trump seems like the final blow to honor.

Are there enough honorable people in the Republican party to do the right thing to preserve democracy? or have they all been seduced by the illusion of power that fossil fuel/ Putin/Trump is presenting to them?

We are about to find out. This is terrifying, but no more than an Arctic collapse. 

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 09, 2017, 06:56:23 PM »
Worst Canadian Flood in Decades Footage Compilation (May 8-9 2017)

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 09, 2017, 02:16:33 AM »
Neither Trump nor Putin want cooperation on climate change. At least nothing public, that could hurt the big oil bucks.

Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: May 08, 2017, 01:21:06 PM »
The Glaciers are Going

As can be seen above, the Waggonwaybreen glacier in Svalbard, Norway, has retreated substantially since 1900. Svalbard’s glaciers are not only retreating, they are also losing about two feet of their thickness each year. Glaciers around the world have retreated at unprecedented rates and some have disappeared altogether. The melting of glaciers will affect people around the world, their drinking water supplies, water needed to grow food and supply energy, as well as global sea levels.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 08, 2017, 01:02:15 PM »
Historic Flooding Far From Over: Hundreds of Roads Closed and Vital Waterways Shut Down

Nine deaths have been blamed on flooding in several states across the Midwest and South.

Hundreds of other roads have also been closed by flooding.

Parts of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers are shut down.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 05, 2017, 04:48:51 PM »
I am curious as gk whether these export figures include stuff melting along the extensive Atlantic front. Not technically "exported" but killed before exiting the basin. This seems high this year.

I think that the "high" extent (3rd lowest on record) is mostly due to that push of thick ice into the Atlantic. In a way it is helping because that ice in the periphery is keeping the albedo lower for longer.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 05, 2017, 05:52:23 AM »
TerryM, Obama has the right to openly influence whatever he wants. That's free speech and that's how great people change the world in a civilized manner. Are you really telling me that you see no difference between openly making your opinion known and covertly waging a propaganda campaign using illegally hacked information and coordinated fake news?

I just can't understand your logic or moral perspective. How is openly speaking inmoral, unethical or  illegal?

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: May 05, 2017, 04:34:19 AM »
Regarding cycles, I wonder. 1200 cycles over 25 years is less than one cycle per week. However, I assume that the battery will be topped up more or less daily. So in terms of battery degradation, are 6000 cycles at 1/5 capacity the same as 1200 cycles of full capacity?

You are right. I confused cycles in a car, that can be one cycle every few days, with cycles in a house or micro grid which at current battery sizes and prices will probably have to cycle everyday. 

I think that the rule of thumb for battery degradation in Tesla's chemistry is that degradation happens at close to full charge and close to almost no charge. It also happens at high temps regardless of the state of charge. I don't think charging the batteries at 1/5 charge or 4/5 charge would make much of a difference in battery life. 5/5 or 0/5 would destroy them real quick.

I think it was Sigmetnow that posted a video that contained very good details about this. I can't find the post but this is the video that best explain Li+ chemistry and Tesla's approach to maximizing it:

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 05, 2017, 12:40:06 AM »
LOL Jeff Sessions lied under oath about meeting with Russians. But that's just fine. This is the new america, where the law is the law but only if you are on the wrong team.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: May 04, 2017, 10:26:26 PM »
When Tesla started I thought that eventually they would sell  a battery pack for a cheap price so that  the useful life of the car could be extended. Now it seems like the batteries will outlast the cars.

I think the big market here is grid and home energy storage. If the batteries can last 25 years could be groundbreaking, even at today prices. That they will get cheaper points to a paradigm shift in energy markets.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 04, 2017, 10:16:01 PM »
The first graph is Day of Max Volume. In 2017 it was on day 108.
The second graph is Volume Gain. That is max volume - min volume of the same freezing season.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 03, 2017, 06:25:18 PM »
I don't doubt that he knew about it, but I doubt it was his idea. It was probably the idea of Page, Flynn or others. Still, that information that you posted is new to me. I would have to re-evaluate my position.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 02, 2017, 04:34:25 PM »
That and it has more total exposed surface area for heat to attack it.


To see why, try the following calculation.  The Earthwatch MODIS data source has a resolution of 250m, and so the smallest detectable ice floe from this data source is around that size.

Please estimate for me the total exposed surface area for a 250m x 250m floe. Let's assume it's thick first year ice of ~2m average thickness. Then, identify what proportion of the total surface areas is:

1)  Top face (exposed to Sun)
2)  Bottom face (exposed to water)
3)  Side faces (exposed to a mix of both)

Fragmentation is not relevant to the total exposed surface area of sea ice until the floes are too small to be seen by MODIS. The dynamics we so avidly watch - whether fragmented or not - do not appreciably alter the total surface area of the ice.

Just to be clear, fragmentation does increase the surface area, but because height(1-2m) is so small relative to length and width (thousands of kilometers) the increase in surface area is extremely small for all but the smallest floes.

That is not to say that fragmented ice behaves the same as solid ice, specially regarding waves. Smaller floes are more susceptible to waves and currents.

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