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Messages - charles_oil

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Arctic Background / Re: 2017 SWIPA report
« on: April 26, 2017, 04:22:16 PM »

A handy scary summary analysis:

First part:
OSLO, April 25 (Reuters) – The Arctic’s quickening thaw is melting the permafrost under buildings and roads from Siberia to Alaska, raising world sea levels and disrupting temperature patterns further south, an international study said on Tuesday.    Link:
The frigid region’s shift to warmer and wetter conditions, resulting in melting ice around the region, may cost the world economy trillions of dollars this century, it estimated.
The report by 90 scientists, including United States experts, urged governments with interests in the Arctic to cut greenhouse gas emissions. U.S. President Donald Trump doubts that human activities, led by use of fossil fuels, are the main driver of climate change.
“The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth, and rapidly becoming a warmer, wetter and more variable environment,” according to the study, which updates scientific findings from 2011.
“Increasing greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the primary underlying cause,” they wrote in the study commissioned by the Arctic Council grouping the United States, Russia, Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Iceland.
Arctic warming could have cumulative net costs from 2010-2100 of between $7 trillion and $90 trillion, it said, with harm exceeding benefits such as easier access for oil and gas exploration and shipping, it said.  Link:
The period 2011-2015 was the warmest since records began in 1900. Sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, which shrank to a record low in 2012, could disappear in summers by the 2030s, earlier than many earlier projections, it said.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 25, 2017, 04:38:41 PM »

Sounds like a load of gobbledegook - a real challenge for the reporter!  Did you know about the planes ??

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 25, 2017, 04:24:25 PM » looks like the B & B is nearby.

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: April 03, 2017, 01:34:21 AM »

Neven - saw your comment #415 re hot cold frame -

May be worth considering an automatic, heat operated, opener such as :

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 20, 2017, 11:53:50 PM »

I think those three graphs definitely qualify for a WOW ... buckle up ... response !

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: March 08, 2017, 09:04:47 PM »

Don't touch !

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 08, 2017, 08:49:07 PM »

I love the Hudson Gyre in #3039 above ! - Will that cause a breakup?

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: March 08, 2017, 12:32:19 AM »

In the sea Ice around Antarctica thread the area is currently (record minimum) around 1,500,000 km2 so 5,000km2 - the size of the potential loss of the shelf is quite small in area % terms - probably lost within normally daily increase / decrease figures though it obviously represents a massive volume compared to thin, surface ice. 
See: Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica                           
« Reply #561 on: March 07, 2017, 01:59:45 PM »

I can't seem to find any measures of arctic sea ice volume so dont know what fraction it would represent (or if it would skew the figures)


Nice little end of show piece on CNN today about early spring in China etc on Christiane Amanpour... ends though with a warning about the confusing being caused to the plants and animals by the changing climate.  Cant see it on line (yet?).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 07, 2017, 12:44:22 PM »

Video rather than an image - listening to it is a nice contrast to the hurley-burley news and highspeed trainwreck of politics....

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: March 01, 2017, 01:44:41 PM »
I could not help but think of the flimsy looking arch at Nares when I saw this one !  Amazingly its got greenery sprouting so has lasted a while.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 17, 2017, 08:48:16 PM »
After the CNN one there was an article on Antarctica on Al Jazeera too today

Though I think this may be the earlier report at end of Jan.

In todays film are taking cores etc on the Mertz Glacier

Arctic sea ice / Re: Piomas vs. CryoSat
« on: February 17, 2017, 08:38:21 PM »
Is it possible that the snow is a significantly different grade / quality this year when the weather has been warmer than even last year ?   Thinking fine powder vs coarse "wetter" snow...

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 08, 2017, 03:31:54 PM »
How long does it take for Sessions to get to the Supreme court +/- delays by Dems ? 

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 06, 2017, 02:37:37 PM »
Am I being dim - are the scales reversed on the graph? 

Surely we were 3 sd below the mean in January.

P.S. ... and also - my thanks too Espen - the thread is a handy clock to watch - happy millionth view too !

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 05, 2017, 02:29:50 PM »
I couldn't help noticing the differences from this to the Piomas "January Average". 

I have taken the liberty of rotating AMSR2 for 21st and putting them side by side.....

Is this significant?  Seems there is thick ice in different areas.

Piomas image from Wipneus
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« Reply #1306 on: February 04, 2017, 03:11:49 PM »

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 05, 2017, 12:23:49 AM »
And of course we should include the latest controversial magazine cover...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2017, 03:26:46 PM »
While we wait to see NSIDC comments:

This was Russia’s Arctic weather in 2016
«These kind of temperatures have never before been registered in the region», the country’s Hydrometeorological Center says.

By Atle Staalesen February 03, 2017

The year 2016 became the warmest on the northern hemisphere on record, and temperatures in the Arctic were by far the most extreme, the research center says in a sum-up of the year.

Among the most extreme examples is the Island of Vize, the land located north of Novaya Zemlya, where average temperatures in January was 17 degrees Celsius above normal for the month..................

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: February 03, 2017, 03:22:10 PM »
Plenty of activity...

Russia in Biggest Arctic Military Push Since Soviet Fall
January 30, 2017 by Reuters

Sovcomflot’s Arctic Tankers Hit Milestone ‘One Million Tonnes’
January 30, 2017 by gCaptain

PHOTOS: ‘HHL Valparaiso’ Delivers STS Cranes via North Sea Route
January 5, 2017 by Mike Schuler
They arrived at the port of Vostochny so I guess a delicate load like this isn't too much of a worry nowadays.

For a both-ways trip in 2010:
Russian container ship makes history with round-trip arctic voyage - November

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 30, 2017, 11:34:16 AM »
... and some amazing footage of the ice in this film.   Note sea ice in the first 2 minutes, and again at about 12 minutes in vol 1.  It does show a lot of swell at times though, so the landwater lead wasn't always calm.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 30, 2017, 11:11:23 AM »
I've just started reading the fascinating book on the Trans-Antarctic expedition in 1955-8 by Fuchs and Hillary - The Crossing of Antarctica.

There are great descriptions of the ice forming, conditions and sea state. It would be amazing to link their comments into the actual locations - and compare with current / recent conditions.

In the first two years they initially arrived and set up the Shackleton base in the Weddel sea, at the base of Flichner along the coast from the Halley bay base.  They found that the best way to progress with the ships making the supply run (Dec/Jan) was to use the extensive "landwater" lead that they found along the coast - their name for it.   

There was a section of ice at the shore before the start of the ice shelf proper.  Some stores which were waiting to get to the base and were held here during early 1956 were lost when a section broke away in late March.

The landwater lead would mean that in effect there was no physical buttressing by the sea ice, but clearly the effect of the sea ice was to have a calmer water area - which they often used for their seaplane to take off.

The book is very well illustrated with some great photos.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 29, 2017, 09:22:35 PM »
What happened to the inscription on the Statue of Liberty ?

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Wrong door ?

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 27, 2017, 03:40:03 PM »
Yes - I had wondered how the "make with American steel" would play - the Oil industry gets different equipment from all over - at different prices / quality too & there may be lots of components (valves / coatings) as well as the pipe itself...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 27, 2017, 03:17:25 PM »
That 3rd wee is pretty early in Feb I hope ??

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: January 27, 2017, 03:16:26 PM »
I imagine the justification for a "new" or discontinuous trend line would be where a significant event has occurred that causes a shift so there is the trend before - and after.

Normal seasonal variations though wouldn't be seen as justifying this (but presumably a major meteorite strike would).  Perhaps change in methodology (visual vs satellite observations?) might also qualify.

Science / Scientists march on Washington - Date tba
« on: January 27, 2017, 02:57:34 PM »
As it will no doubt be a significant event... I thought this would merit a thread on its own (rather than within the Presidential Poll).  No idea if it will become global.....

Current front page (27 Jan):

What is the Scientists' March on Washington

Welcome!  We want to thank you all for your incredible outpouring of support for this march.  We are working to schedule a March for Science on DC and across the United States.  We have not settled on a date yet but will do so as quickly as possible and announce it here.

Although this will start with a march, we hope to use this as a starting point to take a stand for science in politics.  Slashing funding and restricting scientists from communicating their findings (from tax-funded research!) with the public is absurd and cannot be allowed to stand as policy.  This is a non-partisan issue that reaches far beyond people in the STEM fields and should concern anyone who values empirical research and science. 

There are certain things that we accept as facts with no alternatives.  The Earth is becoming warmer due to human action.  The diversity of life arose by evolution.  Politicians who devalue expertise risk making decisions that do not reflect reality and must be held accountable.  An American government that ignores science to pursue ideological agendas endangers the world.

Please bear with us as pull together our mission statement and further details.  Many more updates to come on Monday. 

Twitter: @ScienceMarchDC
Reddit: /r/scientistsmarch
Get Email Updates
To help:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 27, 2017, 01:04:44 AM »
Great - guess what my computer had decided was REALLY spam - An Alternative coin ! 

.png file so shouldn't click through - dont try unless desperate.

or maybe it should be moved to the blasphemy thread....

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 26, 2017, 02:02:06 PM »
Thanks Paddy for comments. 

It was my surprise at the 60 km vs 12/13 km normally that struck me.

I think its actually a case of scale.  See map below - a thin sliver along the coast, or a blob (as NSIDC shows) around Erebus may actually be quite large,

I suspect they would have avoided the "rocking horse" which anyway shows as typically < 50%, so not very solid.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 26, 2017, 01:56:38 PM »
Surely if there is a sleight of hand re "payment" ... that is money that could be used for something more useful than a wall (or reduce debt).  Seems a  shame and unlikely to have any positive spinoffs (unlike NASA for example). 

In the short term though it should ensure a flood of people heading North as they will want to get in early / before jobs are lost etc !

How do the animals that travel across the area fare?  I expect they will need passports and permits now!

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 25, 2017, 06:00:05 PM »
...and yet the Polar star experienced more / thicker ice than usual:

The Coast Guard says that in previous years Polar Star typically worked through approximately 12 to 13 miles of ice to reach McMurdo Station. This year, however, there was more than 60 miles of ice to break with thickness ranging from two feet to more than 10 feet.

“We experienced a significantly larger ice field this year compared to the last several years,” said Capt. Michael Davanzo, commanding officer of the Polar Star. “In several areas, the ice was under considerable pressure and covered with several inches of snow, slowing our progress. Despite these challenges, the crew worked around the clock to prepare the resupply channel before the arrival of the first ship.”

end quote

Looking in NSIDC Chartic this seems odd as it shows next to no ice in the area

Photo caption: The Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star (WAGB-10) and crew create a navigable channel through the frozen Ross Sea off of Antarctica, Jan. 16, 2017. U.S. Coast Guard Photo

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 22, 2017, 10:31:42 PM »
I did wonder if it might get hit.....

From Climate Reanalyser.

Arctic Background / Re: Historic Arctic Expeditions
« on: January 20, 2017, 12:02:37 PM »
may be worth including Nansen as well..... My grandfather (who passed away long before I was born) had an interest in and supported Nansen - though I don't know what the connection was.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 18, 2017, 06:39:20 PM »

Provisional full-year figures for global average near-surface temperatures confirm that last year, 2016, was one of the warmest two years on record, nominally exceeding the record temperature of 2015.
When viewed alongside 2015, the two years are the warmest in an annual series of figures that starts in 1850.

Policy and solutions / Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« on: January 18, 2017, 06:09:38 PM »
to see the French power generation / consumption in real time see:

There are 5 nuclear stations off line at the moment I think - so its a bit tight in the freezing weather across France....  Solar adds a bit - but not much!

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: January 18, 2017, 08:44:53 AM »
Thanks - ducking stool ready if that is right!

Walking the walk / Re: Energy management in a business context
« on: January 17, 2017, 11:02:16 AM »
Is bulb life the biggest scam ever? 

Bulbs are advertised with thousands of hours life - but many fail quickly - but can you be bothered to keep receipt / carton and take it back ?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: January 17, 2017, 10:44:19 AM »
I voted early by error (reply#22) but ended up leaving the 12.75 - 13 ... so who knows ?

The rest / Re: Political discussion on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum
« on: January 17, 2017, 10:37:55 AM »
Having dedicated threads works well I think - if its interesting to you - follow it & contribute, if not - don't.   There will obviously be overlap, but the main political issues can be segregated.

I think the global climate impacts of politics and politicians e.g. Trump / Brexit / Russia / Europe / China both in words and deeds ARE very relevant to arctic / Antarctic Sea ice, and the frightening climatological results.   

I agree though that some of the more salacious news / fake news is a distraction - but it can be light relief too !   I am sure after Friday everything will change with a new, mature President entering his responsible role as global leader of the free world.  ;)

I'd personally rather follow one forum in depth (where there is a common interest and theme, albeit with some dissenters), than subscribe to loads of different ones.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2017, 07:49:46 PM »
Thanks Jim ...

So looks like no year since 2003 has seen enough growth from this sate that we could get above the lowest maximum..... and these were presumably much less stormy years.  Curiously 2012 looks like the highest growth from this point... till the drop starts !

Antarctica / Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 16, 2017, 06:30:16 PM »

The British Antarctic Survey is to pull all staff out of its space-age Halley base in March for safety reasons.
The highly unusual move is necessary because the Brunt Ice Shelf on which the research station sits has developed a big new crack.

Lets hope it can get fixed !

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2017, 05:53:15 PM »
Jim -

Could your excellent "projection" charts be annotated with the respective record low maximum lines as that is the current concern (they just have the record low minimum lines) ?


Policy and solutions / Re: Law of the Sea Treaty
« on: January 16, 2017, 11:34:23 AM »
A more recent incident with china and the new islands:[/url]

Article deals with the ability of countries to ignore the Treaty - but learn something anyway.

And Trump's possible interest:

More articles at:

But note that technical ship construction rating (e.g. Ice class) is dealt with elsewhere and insurers etc will require the right construction standards (which are evolving).

The rest / Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« on: January 16, 2017, 11:19:01 AM »
Yes - those that attack often make their targets better/stronger & more popular. 

I bet "Failing" New York Times and "Fake news" channel CNN  (as well as Charlie Hebdo here in France) have all benefited from the attention as well as SNL's ratings no doubt.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 14, 2017, 01:00:59 PM »
Just looking around for other relevant videos - these visualisation from early 2016 shows the effect that a storm can have on reducing / fracturing the ice

Barents Kara etc Dec/ Jan2106

Beaufort Feb/Mar 2013:

The forum / Re: How to get a list of all my comments?
« on: January 14, 2017, 12:11:18 PM »
It wouldn't let me leave the search field blank - requires a minimum 2 letters so I used "th" or "an" as most posts will include words like and or the, or "an"o"th"er word that incorporates one of these pairs.  A lexicologist may know the best permutation!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 14, 2017, 11:52:28 AM »
Best to watch a North Sea storm from a supply vessels perspective....

Holy s..t !

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 13, 2017, 09:40:11 PM »
Diab - I assume these are 2017 daily figures (not 2007) ?  Rather than the 5 day avg on Chartic

The rest / Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« on: January 13, 2017, 12:47:22 PM »

You mention the "50% of voters" who didn't vote for Trump... caused me to look at the numbers as the % figures seem a bit odd.   

There doesn't seem a single source that summarises the figures - so apologies if I havent got it right, the overseas votes are a bit confused - but presumably distributed in the total votes (even if not all included in the population total):

                                    Votes        Clinton    Trump
Votes - million       :            138         62.5         61.2
Total population    :   323     42.7%   19.3%   18.9%
Voting age       :        251     55.0%   24.9%   24.4%
Eligible voting age :   231     59.7%   27.1%   26.5%
Registered voters :    200     69.0%   31.3%   30.6%
Actual votes:            138       ……       45.3%   44.3%
Vote Clinton Trump   123.7   ....          50.5%   49.5%

Apologies for the formatting if table is a bit jumbled - I dont seem to have the ability to use the text tricks when posting (bold / tables etc).

So... I agree we are in for a stormy time ahead as your 4 issues illustrate.  I think the "I know best" approach is the most dangerous - as he seems to feed on any conspiracy theories, hates anything that might tarnish his image and judges or decide more by personality than principles.   

I wonder how long his cabinet picks - if confirmed - will manage to hold a sensible line....  I think there will be a lot of volatility ahead, as his often damning tweets have a drastic effect on companies etc. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 13, 2017, 10:52:12 AM »
The link on the ASIG page (and in DavidR's post) now just seems to go to a message:

5 hours ago
ADS services are under maintenance. It will be restarted by next Monday morning.  現在、ADS、メンテナンス中です。月曜日までに再起動予定です。

Rather than the plot spreadsheet - so I guess we will have to wait. 

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