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Messages - Tigertown

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1
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: Today at 10:02:52 PM »
Warm water had most likely been working on that fast ice from below for quite some time now, and probably the whole area as far as that goes. Of course, none of the remnants left from last summer ever really got a chance to bond together properly over the winter. Plus, personally, I think all the thickness models need re-calibrated.

P.S. CMEMS shows this area as currently having the thickest ice in the Arctic at 3.85 meters at the center; very much in harmony with PIOMAS.

2
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: Today at 09:55:32 PM »
Moscow storm: 11 killed as high winds strike Russian capital

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40086616

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: Today at 12:27:47 AM »
Still keeping an eye on the CAA.
As the debris washes out to Baffin Bay, more and more water opens to insolation and waves.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 28, 2017, 08:44:24 PM »
@jai
I think that is showing the winds at 850 mb, but the TPW which is for the whole  m2 column. At least numberwise, not sure about colorwise. Not the expert here, but usually when you check the TPW going into the Arctic it is like 1.68 kg/m2  or some number of that sort, not between 8 and 12 some odd kg/m2. This is a huge change, but seems to happen this time of year lately.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 28, 2017, 04:41:21 AM »
Just to put things in perspective, here is July 8-15 of 2016
CLICK IMAGE

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 28, 2017, 01:32:24 AM »
@bairgon
Here's another little area that's opening up. These will soon add up.
First image is for point of reference.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 27, 2017, 05:41:08 AM »
Subtly things are opening up. So slow, you barely notice one day's worth; but add a few days together and, voila!

8
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: May 27, 2017, 12:27:09 AM »
Sri Lanka floods: Scores die as monsoon triggers mudslides

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40063400


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 26, 2017, 06:22:11 PM »
Two meter waves in Nares and Kane Basin right now with 50km/hr winds.
Bigger waves predicted in the same area for two days starting tomorrow. Will be curious to see the effects, as if the situation could get worse. At the very least some of the nearby passage ice may get busted up.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 26, 2017, 03:58:26 AM »
Yes, and all the areas that are supposed to be thick MYI are thus fractured.

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 25, 2017, 09:56:57 PM »
Not much left now, as the remnants are dispersing.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 25, 2017, 05:18:17 AM »
I am again watching the CAA closely, expecting it to melt out next and team up with the Nares Strait with regard to early export. The is some evidence of new melt activity. 23rd on the left vs. 24th on the right.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 24, 2017, 10:44:34 PM »
Will it keep on keeping on?

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 24, 2017, 03:16:07 AM »
I posted earlier today a temperature anomaly map of the CAA and Beaufort for the 23rd. I am now looking at Earth NS and getting surface air temps. over the CAA at up to 2oC and 1000hpa temps. in the same area over 3oC. It appears this will continue in the near term. Even more damaging to the ice in the CAA may be the small wave activity in the area. In short, I really expect the passages to open up sooner than later. I think Barrow Strait will open first, based on most of the ice there being thinner than other areas.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 23, 2017, 09:13:19 PM »
I was just considering the temperature anomalies for today over the Beaufort and the CAA.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 23, 2017, 01:03:32 AM »
Borrowed from the Nares Strait thread. Applies to the current conversation here.
Apocalypse4Real,
NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve continued her Arctic field work into early April, moving from Cambridge Bay, Canada to Alert in Ellesmere Island. In Alert, Stroeve focused on sampling ice thickness and snow pack characteristics along a CryoSat-2 flight track within the Lincoln Sea. This is an area between northernmost Greenland and Ellesmere Island where thick, old ice remains. The scientists flew by Twin Otter each day, out onto the sea ice between latitudes 83°N and 87.1°N. The field campaign was also supported by an aircraft from the British Antarctic Survey carrying a Ka band radar, LiDAR, and a broadband radiometer. A NASA Operation IceBridge flight also flew over the same track.

The group noted that the ice was unusually broken up and reduced to rubble, with few large multi-year floes, forcing the pilots to land on refrozen leads that at times were only 70 centimeters (28 inches) thick. Pilots remarked that they had never seen the ice look like this.

Preliminary estimates suggest mean thicknesses ranging from 2 to 3.4 meters (6.6 to 11 feet), with the thickest ice found between an ice bridge in the Lincoln Sea and mobile pack ice to the north.

Modal thickness, a representation of thermodynamically-grown level ice, ranged between 1.8 and 2.9 meters (6 and 10 feet), including 0.25 to 0.4 meters (10 to 16 inches) of snow. Second- and first-year modal ice thicknesses ranged between 1.8 and 1.9 meters (6 and 6.2 feet), about 0.2 meters (8 inches) thinner than previous airborne measurements indicated.


For details see
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg114458.html#msg114458

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 10:40:49 PM »
That, and if and when the CAA opens up. There looks to be momentum building at the mouth of Nares. I think that ,in regard to the Lincoln Sea, a little more open water and any added heat from insolation or otherwise will only spur things on. Maybe the "garlic press" at the end of the last melt season was only a small foregleam of what will happen soon.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 10:27:58 PM »
@ Ice Shieldz
Your gif in #1425 really shows the big picture. The ice is going straight from being part of a pack to smaller floes without any intermittent phase or a very brief one at the least. I would not be surprised to see past export numbers blown away due to this pattern.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 10:01:40 PM »
Yes, it could be that particular piece hit the rock at just the right speed and angle to break up. However, there seems to be no other that is holding together out of all the ice breaking up in the area. Of course, a clog would make things boring, but a boring Arctic is a healthier Arctic. I don't expect much boredom on the forum here this summer.

Thomas; Thick maybe, but apparently not solid. Someone mentioned honeycombed ice recently. Or maybe from the start these are comprised of smaller floes that had froze together. Maybe not the strongest bonds? I think overall, it is due to the lack of FDD's over the last freezing season.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 09:29:27 PM »
Where did it go?
Charts show this ice that's now  entering Nares to be old thick ice, but the way it crumbles makes for doubt. 5-21 vs. 5-22

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 07:42:21 PM »
There is plenty of warm water to go around, and early in the year , at that.
It's expected to increase in the coming days. Hint: Look at Okhotz, Bering Sea, Labrador, Barents.
First image is today.
Second image is nine days out.
Edit: CLICK IMAGE 3 for gif comparison of now to May 31st

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 21, 2017, 04:50:16 PM »
WRT the image in reply #1385,
I do not know the scale of the image.

My best guess would be about 8 km = 1 cm.

Give it a little time and I will bet this ice will shatter into smaller pieces. It hasn't really been exposed to persistent heat yet.

23
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: May 21, 2017, 08:11:17 AM »

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 21, 2017, 07:55:14 AM »
All the ice between the Beaufort and Chukchi is starting to break up.
A close up look.

25
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: May 20, 2017, 11:24:07 PM »
A garden bridge that works: how Seoul succeeded where London failed
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/may/19/seoul-skygarden-south-korea-london-garden-bridge

26
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: May 20, 2017, 02:45:04 AM »
Flooding persists globally.

Caribbean – Homes and Infrastructure Damaged After Floods in Jamaica, Haiti and Dominican Republic

Deadly Flash Floods Set to Worsen Poverty and Hunger in Kenya, Experts Say

Indonesia – Homes Destroyed, 7 Dead After Floods and Landslides in Sulawesi, Borneo and Sumatra

China – Floods Affect 6 Provinces Leaving 4 Dead and 1,600 Displaced

Thailand – Evacuations After Floods in Northern Provinces

http://floodlist.com

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 20, 2017, 01:36:11 AM »
There is certainly a valid concern wrt loosing some of the older thicker sea ice to export.

28
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: May 19, 2017, 10:54:23 PM »
Arctic stronghold of world’s seeds flooded after permafrost melts

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/19/arctic-stronghold-of-worlds-seeds-flooded-after-permafrost-melts

No seeds were lost but the ability of the rock vault to provide failsafe protection against all disasters is now threatened by climate change

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 19, 2017, 07:41:17 AM »
The way the ice disintegrates now, I suppose before long, it will find its way out of the Arctic through any little nooks and crannies that open up. This will be a summer of, not just melting, but extraordinary export.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 19, 2017, 05:37:43 AM »
Beaufort joined to Nares?
Yeah, when that breaks through, ice will flow freely from the Beaufort all the way through Nares. As we have seen, nothing yet has been strong enough to create a clog.

Everything is showing signs of melt onset, all over the Arctic now.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 19, 2017, 01:16:36 AM »
Interesting observation Jai.  Does anyone have thoughts on the significance?
I'd say Jai made some major points there. ;)

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 19, 2017, 01:14:28 AM »
In the main thread a lot of people are getting excited about Nares "Export". But Baffin Bay is entirely frozen over. So why is it significant that ice is getting exported into more ice... more than any other Polynya opening up?
All the ice in the Bay started breaking up and moving south in late March. It has been booking it out of there during April and May. Like the others said, it's doomed ice. Plus it leaves the door open for more to escape.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 18, 2017, 06:01:05 AM »
Ahh! The difference a day can make.
1.) Hudson Bay
2.) FJL
16th vs. 17th

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 16, 2017, 05:24:01 AM »
Ouch!!!
CLICK IMAGE
ZOOM
Second GIF May 5th vs. May 15th


35
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: May 15, 2017, 06:40:01 AM »
What do you know???  Give me 40 Acres and I will turn this T-Rex around.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/333085-tillerson-signs-declaration-recognizing-climate-change

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 14, 2017, 05:57:24 PM »
I keep wondering: will the debris from this breakup clog Nares Strait or will it just flush through? So far, it is flowing smoothly. Observe the 10th- 13th. CLICK IMAGE


Starting to move through this morning:
https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017134074000-2017134074500.250m.jpg
Those big pieces are breaking down way too easy. The same thing is happening in the Fram, as the ice moves into it. The melt season is just starting. Imagine how the ice will crumble in a few weeks from now.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 13, 2017, 11:36:11 PM »
I keep wondering: will the debris from this breakup clog Nares Strait or will it just flush through? So far, it is flowing smoothly. Observe the 10th- 13th. CLICK IMAGE

38
Old enough to remember what happened when people got TVs?
Not a problem anymore; there's nothing on worth watching.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 13, 2017, 05:33:03 AM »
I also was just looking over the Bering/Chukchi area. You can see a big difference between the first(left) of May, 2017 and the twelfth(right) of May, 2017.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 12, 2017, 02:49:30 AM »
pity it seems too big. trying edited down version...
Maybe you could Youtube it and post the link

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 11, 2017, 09:52:29 PM »
(Let's try that again)

This is new...

Lincoln Sea. Yesterday an unbroken sheet. Today, cracked-up all the way down to Nares. Don't think We've ever seen it do that before, least of all in early May.
A follow-up to the break up at the Nares entrance. Despite the clouds, it is obviously getting progressively worse.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 11, 2017, 07:42:00 AM »
You can see the little fringe areas with thin growth.
Other areas opened up, but growth came out ahead.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 09, 2017, 01:52:59 AM »
Yup, looks like the proverbial drop off the cliff is in the cards, especially if the arctic weather goes south.
   We probably should be thankful for all the reprieves that we have had, and we know the big drops are coming soon.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 08, 2017, 03:01:32 PM »
Semi-nares-strait crosspost.

This is the first freezing and melting season I'm seriously following this forum and the speed with which the beaufort seems to almost crumble near the Canadian archipelago on Worldview is impressive to me. Is is more often like this? The ice pack appeared stable/vast north of queen elizabeth islands and Ellesmere Islands and in just 5 days an, I think, 5 km wide and around 400km long crack formed and appears to expand quickly
Here is 2016 for comparison. You can go back further on WV if you like.
First is a gif for 4-6 thru 5-6 of 2016 CLICK IMAGE, second image has 5-7-2016 at the top, with 5-7-2017 below

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 08, 2017, 08:02:04 AM »
Another key thing to note re: elevation-based snowfall is that leaves the polar-adjacent landmasses much more vulnerable to losing their snowmass, as for the most part they are *not* elevated. The downsloping effect over the northern tier of Alaska, Canada, and Russia will exacerbate the ice loss in peripheral seas adjacent to these regions, as we are already seeing occur, and the outcome come September is likely to be quite bleak IMO.

Canada for one is experiencing warmer temps in many areas, leading to floods and mudslides caused by these warmer temps, which melt snow on the ground and increase rainfall. So it may just be this "borrowing" effect that is causing colder temps in these mountainous regions, and yes, I do believe this will affect the sea ice, maybe even sooner than later. We have seen a couple false starts of sorts to the melt season. The ice is poised to go down quickly now, and I think we are about to see the real deal.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 03, 2017, 04:23:25 PM »
Another tiny piece of detail, the growth from End-March to Apr 25th was ~0.32 km3, more or less the average of the last few years. The negative feedback of low volume leading to higher growth failed to materialize.

Yes, according to the model.  The physical reality 'feels' like it should yield a higher growth.  Any ideas on what would drive PIOMAS lower than expected?
One guess: Failure of lwr to efficiently escape to space, even from open water. The heat has been replenished at a greater rate than it could escape, even in the heart of winter.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 03, 2017, 08:18:15 AM »
Looking at the Fram export ice getting spread out. Also, some wave action in the area lately may have stirred up heat from below. 5-1 on left    5-2 on right     The chart below shows water gets warmer with depth for about 200 or so meters.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 02, 2017, 01:57:57 PM »
The Bering air(and water) has remained warmer than elsewhere of late and has experience accelerated melt. Perhaps that at least contributed to the large drop.

49
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: May 02, 2017, 06:00:38 AM »
Antarctica's troublesome 'hairdryer winds'

www.bbc.com/news/science_and_environment

It's an ill wind that blows no good - at least not for the ice shelves on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula.


50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 01, 2017, 02:02:43 PM »
The Bering Sea & Strait starting to open up.

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