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One concern, which may or may not have a bearing on the matter:Latest GFS anomalies until next Wednesday (Climate Reanalyzer). Added 5-day forecast, which is still red all the way from Kara Sea to Beaufort.romett1, thanks for posting the GFS anomalies+forecast. It seems that every time I look at the table the forecast a few days out shows the anomaly lessening. But every time you post an update the anomaly stays high. Is it just my imagination? Or is the GFS underestimating the forecast anomaly?
Latest GFS anomalies until next Tuesday (Climate Reanalyzer).It is good to know what the average anomalies over the whole Arctic are running, but does anyone know what they are peaking at? I can only make out the color shades to a limited degree.
Kara, Laptev and ESS still anomalously warm, also Beaufort warmer than usual.
So again, my 'rules' (they are actually universal laws):
1) Every comment in the melting/freezing season threads should pertain to that subject. These are the most popular threads for readers who don't comment, so don't bother them with off-topic stuff.
2) If you have to be off-topic, be short.
3) If you're the third guy who wants to say something about the off-topic subject, say: Okay, guys, this is getting off-topic, let's go to this or that thread - or open a new one - so our discussions don't get lost and we don't bother others. It's a big forum.
4) In other threads you can go off-topic more.
5) Don't start discussions about these rules in the thread itself. PM Neven or go to the The Forum category.
It's a big forum. Don't try to stuff all your ideas, theories and opinions in this one thread. Many people come here to read about the latest near real-time news on the 2017 melting season, not about the implications, the consequences and the politics of it all. Show some respect.
Good point, and you are probably right.All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon.
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.
If they became cheap because of excess supply, would they still want them?
Looking at the DMI 80n graphs temps consistently start rising around day 100, whats the primary driver behind this, increase in solar energy?I would think so, especially due to the angle of incidence of the solar energy, by that time of year.
Large positive snow anomalies in the Fall and early Winter (driven, at least in part, by wide expanses of open water in the Arctic) and dramatic negative anomalies in the early Spring (caused by a rapidly warming planet) is the worst possible scenario as the vast stretches of permafrost are insulated from the winter cold and then subjected to a lengthening warm season.I guess that is like a one-two punch. And the permafrost is melting, like crazy fast. Nobody could have foreseen how fast it is melting.
The changes occurring are accelerating.
Not only that, look at the overall thickness: 93cm....Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm
Wow, a whole 8 cm of bottom growth. So much for resistance to disintegration.
(I think I read somewhere recently also that the level of downwelling longwave radiation that such GHGs create in the Arctic is the strongest indicator of when melting of ice will begin. But I can't recall the source now.)
Melt onset is determined by downwelling longwave radiation. From Mortin et al. (2016):
"The timing of melt onset affects the surface energy uptake throughout the melt season. Yet the processes triggering melt and causing its large interannual variability are not well understood. Here we show that melt onset over Arctic sea ice is initiated by positive anomalies of water vapor, clouds, and air temperatures that increase the downwelling longwave radiation (LWD) to the surface. The earlier melt onset occurs; the stronger are these anomalies. Downwelling shortwave radiation (SWD) is smaller than usual at melt onset, indicating that melt is not triggered by SWD. When melt occurs early, an anomalously opaque atmosphere with positive LWD anomalies preconditions the surface for weeks preceding melt. In contrast, when melt begins late, clearer than usual conditions are evident prior to melt. Hence, atmospheric processes are imperative for melt onset. It is also found that spring LWD increased during recent decades, consistent with trends toward an earlier melt onset."
This map illustrates the high ground south of the Arctic where any evaporation from the warming ocean is likely to precipitate out as snow. For me the most at risk area is the uplands of Eastern Siberia and Mongolia, but you have to allow that anywhere from northern Spain to the Chukchi are possiblities. My own thinking is that until Laptev is ice free in November and December we have no idea how much snow a random weather event can drop here or how persistent it will be, but I suspect it will rapidly expand to the point where the northern slopes will carry permanent snow. IF that happens the climate in Siberia will reverse being much colder in the southern uplands and more like permanent springtime by the ocean, and in time an enduring cold wind falling out of the mountains flowing east over China.
I understand that, but I think the moisture problem may exist everywhere or at the very least, in many places other than the Arctic. I will be open minded and wait on other thoughts in that regard though.The air in the Arctic was dry in the past, but not anymore. There seems to be so much moisture now that it cannot be contained. I am no expert on that subject, and am sure there are others that can clarify.Correct! But I am not talking about the Arctic re: decreasing/stable moisture, as it is definitely warming & moistening (also due to the loss of albedo); I am referencing land areas that are newly-covered by snow when they usually aren't.
...Just to be clear, is it your contention that snow means there is cooling??? If so can you please cite the research which shows that? I've lived in the subarctic most of my life. In my experience snow means warming, though still at or a bit below 0C. It just doesn't snow when the temps are arctic cold and the pressure is high.
We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.
Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
No, that is not my contention -- I am saying that the current amount of warming combined with the increasingly open Arctic Ocean results in more snowfall. Currently this results in relatively small opportunities for negative temperature anomalies (like last fall, where the +++snowfall in areas that don't normally see it so early resulted in very negative departures across much of Asia in October/November).
Eventually, if this feedback continues to amplify, I suspect it could lead to much more dramatic cooling by way of albedo effect. But we are most definitely not yet at that point and it may not even exist (though I suspect it does).
Such thin ice now could see record low summertime sea-ice conditions in the Arctic next September. Photograph: Operation IceBridge/Nasa
Latest daily volume numbers file while official site is not providing it.The last update is for Feb. 28th in this file, which we have already.
Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland. Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.
Sand dredgers in Poyang Lake by Hamashu village. Sand mined here is sold to builders in Shanghai. Photograph: Vince Beiser
Great, thanks.They already did, in so many words.
Can't keep up with all the threads.
When do official research centers usually announce such a thing to the press?
A boat lies in the dry Cedro reservoir in Quixadá, Brazil. Climate change increases the risk of extreme weather events like drought.
OrenYes.It was surely discussed on the IJIS thread following the first century drop after the max.
Was it called as the lowest winter extent on record?
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.There is certainly a teleconnection between the Arctic and the rest of the Earth. Where I live, the trees have always been a rich green for my whole life til now, a place where everything could thrive with little effort. Now the trees are dead or dying with pale Autumn-ish looking leaves. Heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and droughts are happening all over the place. Don't be fooled by the TV media because they won't report everything at one time, so as to give you the big picture. The heat energy has built to a point that the Earth can longer hold it back from being harmful, even with the help of the vast oceans.
But the human-caused climate change that is spurring the massive noctiluca blooms in the Arabian Sea is bringing on these new conditions over the mere course of a few decades.
The oceans beneath the noctiluca mats are now increasingly robbed of life. Oxygen levels are plummeting.
Talking about "slush" there has no credibility
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.
Peru’s civil defence agency INDECI reported (pdf) yesterday that 62 people have lost their lives as a result of the heavy rain, flooding and landslides since December 2016. At least twenty regions have been affected.
9,018 homes destroyed
8257 homes damaged (uninhabitable)
110,094 homes affected
1,231 km main roads destroyed
132 bridges destroyed
Gary Black is Georgia’s agriculture commissioner.
“This could be a $200 million night, and in worst-case scenario, it would be easy to say we’re in the hundreds of millions of dollars,” Black said.
Antarctic Sea Ice is doing what the Arctic sea ice did this last fall and winter.
What do the failing predictive models have to do with the melting season?