Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Tigertown

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 30
1
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: Today at 12:31:38 AM »
E.
people are falling apart everywhere

You can say that again. That subject could make up a thread on its own. We can't let our anger and frustration ever get the best of us. Once you do so, it is hard to stop. I try to think what can happen as soon as I start feeling anger or resentment, and keep my composure. I bet the Switzerland chainsaw man wishes he had stopped to think for a minute.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40723179

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 10:25:32 PM »

Am I crazy to think the weather will probably change for the worse as the season gets closer to changing? I don't necessarily mean huge storms but simply more movement and waves and less calm, and moderate storms at the least.

3
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: July 27, 2017, 10:20:27 PM »
 I think Neven does a great job running this forum and has been more than patient with us lately. I always welcome moderation if I get too extreme in my comments. I have undertaken projects for financial gain and had less patience, much less him doing this voluntarily. I think everyone here should have respect for him or at some point move on, and without a big announcement please.

I might make one suggestion, or maybe two. Maybe start having a longer probation period on new members before their comments post automatically. Second, if someone insults you personally, let Jim Pettit or someone else deal with them. You are too gracious sometimes. Only suggestions, as you are in charge, but please don't let things go so far that you get frustrated.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 27, 2017, 10:06:59 PM »
I will comment on that in the suggestions thread, as I know there has been enough off topic elsewhere. Maybe anyone else who wants to say anything will do it there.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 08:43:46 AM »
SST's have not been working right on Earth Null School.
Best to search elsewhere for now.
Compare same dates from 2016 and 2017
CLICK IMAGE

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 12:00:37 AM »
I meant the termite analogy in a very simple manner, and did not intend it go that far. I do believe this season has been sneaky, because the ice is melting at a pace similar to some of the worst years on record, but the extent is not reflecting this. Nobody has to be blind to that, only if they choose. This year does not have to blow 2012 away, but has it's place in the tapestry. I don't mean to declare disaster any more than any other year, and don't yet know how bad it will be, but I know it is not over and it won't exactly be all that good when it is.


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 26, 2017, 12:33:07 PM »
Things have been kind of quite lately in the Arctic. Really not that bad of a year. Not much momentum, the melt season seeming to just fizzle out. Or is it just being a little sneakier this year.

Funny. I'm planning the same animation, but from exactly the opposite point of view (and therefore I am waiting a couple of days longer). No fizzle out but sneakyness with a bang. I feel the state of the ice is worsening at an accelerated pace and the atlantic side today entered a 2013 lookalike-contest. I know time is running out this season, so maybe we won't see a catastrophic outcome, but it's all far from over.
Termites come to mind where I live. They eat your wood-frame home out from under you before you know what is happening. By the time anything goes bang, it is usually about too late.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid July update)
« on: July 26, 2017, 12:19:21 PM »
Mentioning albedo, look at the whole pack. It is degrading in places where the concentration is lower and the ice is thinner. Where the pack is tighter and thicker, the ice seems to be holding out better.
Zoom in for better view of July 25th,2017.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 26, 2017, 04:54:42 AM »
Things have been kind of quite lately in the Arctic. Really not that bad of a year. Not much momentum, the melt season seeming to just fizzle out. Or is it just being a little sneakier this year.
21st-25th CLICK IMAGE

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid July update)
« on: July 26, 2017, 03:48:27 AM »
 DavidR
The 2012 GAC did NOT produce a larger volume loss than other years and some analyses have suggested that the record low extent was going to occur anyway because of the thinness of the ice. This years ice is even thinner, and at June 30th was about 2% thinner than 2012.

I really liked a point FishOutofWater made a day or two ago. The main pack still has fresh cool meltwater* near, under, and around it due mostly to lack of disturbances recently. Whether we see an extraordinary late melt may depend on how much storm and wave activity we see in the Arctic in the coming weeks. Enough wind and drift to pull water up from the deep, if persistent, could also do the trick. Don't forget late export via the CAA, Nares, and Fram.

* I wouldn't much count on that anywhere any light could pass through because of low concentration or thinner ice.

11
Consequences / Re: What can BLUE do for YOU?
« on: July 25, 2017, 11:23:45 PM »
I am not sure that we should not start thinking more along the line of an NBOE, that is to say a Near Blue Ocean Event. It is beginning to look like the arbitrary one million square kilometers, as a threshold to drop below for Arctic SIE, is not necessary in order to see havoc wreaked on the climate. Flooding, wildfires, droughts, and deadly storms are increasing every year. Maybe the SIE will never drop below a certain point, though it probably will. Whether it does or not, the current situation will continue to decline because of the lack of coolant in the planetary A/C. That's what blue is already doing to us.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 25, 2017, 06:20:47 AM »
Big waves forecast (ECMWF) to start around now and last a day or so in the Beaufort.

(Edit: Are these notherlies, southerlies, or otherlies?)

There is some warm water in the area, and it runs fairly deep. I guess that will stir it up a bit.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 11:46:15 PM »
@Hyperion and bairgon
The bigger floes are probably busting up three dimensionally rather than just by width as they gets closer to Nares. Of course, I would not doubt if these were never as thick as they were made out to be in the beginning either.

14
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: July 24, 2017, 11:19:59 PM »
Ned W,
Thank you for your professionalism in your reply.  I am always using and referencing extent. I just don't necessarily think that every time it pauses, it means melt has stopped and the season is saved and this no longer is more than an ordinary year. Not that any one person is championing that theme, but I keep getting the feeling that some are grasping for straws due to the extent not nose diving. One thing your chart would seem to indicate is that the ice will probably get thinner each year, which would be the only way for extent to lag volume, other than concentration# dropping. All until, like you said, the two merge. I believe the shape the ice will be in going into winter will be a problem in and of itself. Whether it prolongs the melt season or not*, it will interfere with re-freezing and will actually draw storms rather than just allowing them during the winter.

# Area has dropped many days this season more than extent
*Late season export that does not easily halt, for example.

15
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: July 24, 2017, 07:35:20 PM »
I certainly don't know the exact outcome of the season. I know that it may end with extent fairly high, but how does anyone consider that a good thing if all the ice that is left is thin. If they do so, then they were the ones looking for a victory in numbers, and that is the only kind of win they will have. There will be troubles and consequences that will carry over into the freezing season and next year.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 24, 2017, 03:54:55 PM »
Transport through the Fram can start up anytime but, if it doesn't soon, we seem to be heading to a nearly ice free Greenland Sea.
26th-28th has some reverse flow, but the 25th(not long enough to get things going) and 29th onward look like it may be possible.
CLICK IMAGE

17
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: July 24, 2017, 03:40:11 PM »
I know that I sound like a broke record, but I keep reading arguments over extent as a gauge for the melt season and the year overall. I reiterate that we use extent daily because it is available daily not because it is the best metric that we have.

From IJIS,

The mistake you and others make is the assumption that this year's ice is anything like previous years.  Or that this year's climate is anything like previous years.   Or that atmospheric circulation or ocean currents and temperatures are anything like previous years.

You can crunch numbers all you want, but if circumstances in the past in no way resemble current circumstances, then it's just GIGO.

You can't treat a transforming system as if it's a static one and derive anything useful.

We have variations on this post LITERALLY EVERY YEAR.  One year they will be right, much like a stopped clock. When that year comes, don't delude yourself that you deserve credit for your foresight.

Where did THAT come from?  You may be fighting some personal demon, but it's not me.
Personal attacks are out of place here, especially when they are based on nothing but your own issues

One response to this;
Ned W,
You told other people that they're wrong.  Peter Ellis told you that you're wrong.  His language was perhaps slightly more pointed than yours, but not that much.

He is right that every year people say "conditions this year are totally different from any other previous year" and then most of the time the season proceeds more or less as it did the year before and the year before that. 

We're about six weeks away from the minimum.  Over the past six weeks, extent has decreased by 3.51 million km2.  For the previous decade, the average was 3.59.  Seems pretty typical to me.


I agree with Cid that the system is dynamic, but I think that an extent based thread is not where this discussion belongs. The Arctic Sea Ice extent is about as meaningless right this moment as it will ever be. It doesn't even have the usual value in regard to albedo because so much is so thin that the sun's rays pass right through it.

Anyway, extent has been used so much everyday of every year, it has become a stumbling block. We need to look at the overall picture, and on a large enough high res. screen, not a tiny phone.



18
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 24, 2017, 01:57:14 PM »
 Ned W
this sub-10K drop is pretty crazy.
Some thin ice popped up in the Kara and some more next to Svalbard. The ice had melted there recently, but the water was yet to be disturbed enough to dispatch the cool fresh meltwater. The new ice will not last, but it temporarily offset losses mathematically. Also, some other ice in places like the Fram did not melt out quite completely and experienced some minor dispersion.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 01:35:24 PM »
Hi,

Just curious, I've been lurking for a while,  and while I see a lot of pics posted, I don't see a lot posted pulling from the sentinel satilte missions, is there a reason why? ( Or is it and I'm just not realizing it)

In the same vein the sentinel 3 sat data is available now, and when I played around with it in the sentinel toolbox it looks like you could use it to really clean up the swaths and get some very clear images of the ice. I was.mostly just fooling around, but it looked like you could run algoriths against pixels based on the cloud masks. You can also use it to process the sentinel 1 and 2 data the same way. Might be easier than Photoshop. Apologies if this belongs in stupid questions  :)


Liam

Where do you access these? What sites? Links?

20
Consequences / Re: What can BLUE do for YOU?
« on: July 24, 2017, 01:25:59 PM »
Well, to be fair, I got the idea from the people that deliver packages in the big brown trucks.         (U * S)

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 01:19:29 PM »
@seaicesailor
I was going to reply like this: I respectfully disagree about the winter. The heat is in the water and during the freezing season, it will show the most.

Then I noticed that  FishOutofWater went into detail about the heated oceans,
Now for the bad news. The oceans of the northern hemisphere are very warm and heat has built up in the subtropics. Ocean heat is flowing into the Arctic from the north Atlantic at an accelerated rate. That heat will lurk below the surface in coming years effecting future melt seasons if the AO continues to be positive. Warming of the Atlantic layer at 300m to 600m depth in the Arctic will affect the ice for years to come.


Like I said, I think we have a problem already this winter, not just later down the road.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 24, 2017, 07:54:29 AM »
 Hyperion
Losing a third of its thickness in a week to the 17th, I won't be surprised if 2017A in the Beaufort is ice-free by now a week later.

The problem with that is that usually the remaining ice redistributes and gives the false impression that the ice is not melting much. We should know better by the fact that the area and concentration keep dropping. The extent, with the exception of a stall or two, has dropped, but apparently not as much as some had expected. It is a shame there are not more buoys, so as to paint a broader picture of what is really going on.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 06:51:27 AM »
The Pacific side is really getting worked over now.
Second image is a gif CLICK TO ACTIVATE  21st thru 23rd

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2017, 01:15:25 AM »
I believe several folks (I was mum on the issue, having somewhat learned the lessen Jim & Terry named) predicted a melting lull that seems to have occurred a little later than expected.

Bear in mind that the "melting lull" might merely be an artifact of the way NSIDC do their sums (math as they call it in the good ol' U S of A). The JAXA and "homebrew" AMSR2 numbers are still declining, and as Wipneus put it:

The 15% cutoff may play a role here
.
I figured it to be a little bit of 'spersion.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 23, 2017, 11:05:18 PM »
As far as I am concerned, as long as PIOMAS is dropping, melt is ongoing. Extent is interesting to watch, but is not a melt gauge by no means.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 08:56:40 AM »
The CAA is just waiting on the least little push before it starts flowing south.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 08:25:26 AM »
Starting to see large areas of mush. Wrangel at top left.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2017, 06:36:50 AM »
Every day I try to focus and read this thread , but lately keep having a loss of concentration. ???

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 02:19:51 AM »
Dharma Rupa,
I think the next freezing (?) season will be more interesting than this melting season.
That's what I have been saying for a long time now.

Thomas Barlow,
How much overall thickness loss is possible in 6-8 weeks left? Not 2 metres I wouldn't think.
Maybe 1 metre?

 Don't forget the late season "Garlic Press" and don't gauge what it is capable of from last year. Thinner and smaller floes may not stop it from flowing as easily as last year's ice did.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 22, 2017, 05:21:02 AM »
Looks like there is melting from both sides, at least for the moment.
CLICK IMAGE

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 07:24:32 PM »
NSIDC SIE  x 106 km2

2017,    07,  17,      7.765
2017,    07,  18,      7.640       Down 125k
2017,    07,  19,      7.518       Down 122k
2017,    07,  20,      7.395       Down 123k

 Some have commented that cooler air is on the way for many parts of the Arctic. Still, most surface air will remain above freezing, even if slightly, and insolation will continue either way.
Looks like a little wave activity starting to kick up here and there today and over the next few days. This may redistribute enough warm water to escalate the attack on the sea ice.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 05:30:49 PM »
Thawing Thunder
And I also beliefe that big areas of that ice are thinning away at an unprecedented pace and will surprise us soon.
The rain showers are not helping the ice at all.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 21, 2017, 05:42:36 AM »
 Ice that I think will be gone by August.
All of that in Baffin, that in the CAA by melt & export in tandem. The current Fram export. Note there may be new ice moved from the north down to any of these areas by then, but I mean what is there now. Also, Kara and what is behind the N. S. Islands. Laptev. Some areas in the pack that are starting to smart a little. Can anyone guestimate the SIE loss on these?

I know somebody can add to that list.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 04:46:50 AM »
@Hyperion
You might spot an area or two on here(20th) where both the concentration has dropped and the ice has thinned.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 06:32:33 AM »
@subgeometer

It looks like that is going to continue around the Svalbard area for several days, with some ups and downs in wave heights, of course. This should move some of the warm water around, and there is plenty in the area.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 05:02:40 AM »
A fair amount of rain lining up with warm 850 mb temperatures today.
CLICK IMAGE

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 19, 2017, 05:58:05 PM »
magnamentis,
BTW it would be nice if we could have a link of the source for "high compaction" for further assessment of accuracy and reliability of that source.

It says NSIDC on the charts and the percentages are probably correct in and of themselves. I believe the problem may be that the percentage of compactness now compared to what we started out with is not saying much. If we had started the season out with a strong pack and still had a strong percentage of compactness, that would be a whole different situation. I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong on how the NSIDC does their figuring.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 19, 2017, 05:37:06 PM »
Sea ice compactness at this moment seems to be substantially higher than in 2012, 2015 and 2016.
That is some good news at least. Thanks.
Could slow down the rest of the melt-season. A huge area of icepack towards 'west' side of the NP looks somewhat integrated from looking at Worldview.
I would have to trust my own eyes on that(compactness of any measure), among other sources.


PS   Unrelated.

NSIDC SIE
2017,    07,  17,      7.765  x 106 km2
2017,    07,  18,      7.640

Following a couple of nominal drops, yesterday saw a 125 k drop in extent.



40
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 19, 2017, 04:42:11 PM »
A major compaction event would be needed right now to slow down the melt, as there is just too much easy pickings around the perimeter. Of course, the same compaction would drop extent numbers immediately.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 19, 2017, 10:23:47 AM »
Ice in about all possible NW passages turns mobile.

That's what I have been saying. Normally the ice in the CAA would have been a backstop for compaction, now it becomes simply another escape route.

 JayW,
Looks about the same as last year.

Except this year, we can't afford it. The shape the ice is in, the whole Arctic will probably flush out like a giant toilet full of crushed ice.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 19, 2017, 10:13:57 AM »
 

This shows that the ice has collapsed almost overnight, fracturing at both the western and eastern end of this channel.

As this is my first year watching a melt season via satellite, I have no experience of whether this is normal or not.

What mechanism could account for this? Is it bottom melt which has thinned the ice to a critical point?

There has been a warm breeze blowing over land, including the CAA for weeks now, sometimes up to 10oC in some areas. Plus, waves contributed.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 19, 2017, 08:03:28 AM »
S.Pansa,
(T4 volume 071517: 7440 kmĀ³)


That is awfully close to JAXA right now, and it seems that PIOMAS is coming up a little thick in spots. Either way, there is a good deal of warm rain still falling hither and thither. It may just be more damaging to thickness than extent, and it could potentially continue even after insolation begins to wane. Imagine what a big loss of volume in August, it being thirty one days long, could do.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 19, 2017, 06:33:00 AM »
McClure Strait and Parry Channel.
Too big of a file. I had to Youtube it.

https://youtu.be/yJoQsmOcwh0




45
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: July 18, 2017, 10:23:56 PM »
Swiss glacier reveals couple lost in 1942

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40645745


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 18, 2017, 08:57:20 AM »
A stall in extent loss would not be a big surprise, as we seem to be loosing a lot of ice from the middle of the pack now.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid July update)
« on: July 18, 2017, 08:52:20 AM »
Many people keep quoting extent alone and say there is not much melting, but watching the thick ice melt like ice cream is a wake up call. By thick I mean the proxy ice we have for thick now. Curious to see how this loss will translate into numbers.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 18, 2017, 06:26:58 AM »
Yogi Berra comes to mind about now.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 18, 2017, 06:08:07 AM »
 greatdying2,
Troubling low concentration areas appearing on the Atlantic side, according to both Bremen AMSR2 and Wipneus' NSIDC maps

And Uni-Hamburg

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 18, 2017, 02:20:31 AM »
Nares is doing now what the passages of the CAA will be doing very soon.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 30