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Messages - Hefaistos

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Concrete - CO2 Villain or Solution?
« on: July 18, 2017, 10:00:43 PM »
Here are some interesting results from research on concrete carbonation, showing that more than 50% of CO2 emitted during production of cement is later absorbed during the lifecycle of concrete.

The CO2 balance of concrete in a Life Cycle perspective
by K.O. Kjellsen (Norcem), M. Guimaraes (Aalborg Portland) and Å. Nilsson (Cementa), published by Danish Technological Institute, Denmark

Abstract
The amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorbed in Nordic concrete structures over a 100 year period has been calculated. The CO2 uptake, or carbonation, occurs gradually and was calculated for an initial service life period of 70 years followed by a 30 year post-demolition period. The processing of demolished concrete to recycled concrete aggregates increase the CO2 uptake, this was taken into account in the calculation of the total CO2 uptake.

Over 100 years, one year of Nordic concrete construction is calculated to absorb 0.34, 0.22, 0.24 and 0.021 million metric tons of CO2 in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland, respectively. These are quite notable numbers, and imply that about 0.5% of the total national CO2 emissions will be re-absorbed in concrete in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. The corresponding number for Iceland is about 1%. The calculations show that up to 30% of the total CO2 emission from cement production, or up to 57% of the CO2 emission from the so-called calcination process in cement manufacturing, is re-absorbed when the cement is utilized in concrete construction in the Nordic countries.

https://www.dti.dk/reports-on-co2-uptake-from-the-carbonation-of-concrete/co2-balance/18487,6

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Concrete - CO2 Villain or Solution?
« on: July 18, 2017, 09:56:13 PM »
"The concrete industry is one of two largest producers of carbon dioxide (CO2), creating up to 5% of worldwide man-made emissions of this gas, of which 50% is from the chemical process and 40% from burning fuel." - Wiki

An additional aspect of concrete, is that after its use in building things, it starts to carbonate, i.e. it takes up CO2 in a process that lasts for decades.
"The carbonation depth is approximately proportional to the square root of time. For example, if the carbonation depth is 1mm in a one-year-old concrete, it will be about 3mm after 9 years, 5mm after 25 years and 10mm after 100 years."

http://www.understanding-cement.com/carbonation.html

"...the concept that the world’s concrete infrastructure could provide the single largest human-made carbon sink has genuine scientific merit."
However, the extent of carbonation is less understood, it remains to be quantified how much CO2 concrete actually absorbs over its lifecycle.

http://www.sustainableconcrete.org.nz/page/co2-absorption.aspx

3
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 17, 2017, 05:33:38 PM »
Starts to break up now on the edge, according to satellite imagery from Deimos Imaging.

https://www.rt.com/viral/396558-larsen-c-iceberg-satellite/

4
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 16, 2017, 07:03:47 PM »
Scott Ritter was a UN weapons inspector in Iraq, in vain searching for the non-existant weapons of mass destruction (WMD), working together with Hans Blix. He was very critical to the demagogics of WMD policies (Bush et al), for which he got harsh criticism from the political establishment. Eventually, he became a popular antiwar figure as a result of his stance, and later of  course proven to be correct.
Now he has a critical analysis of how the National Intelligence Community has worked with Russiagate, seemingly repeating the same kind of mistakes that were made reg. WMD in Iraq.

"The decision by Brennan early on in the process to create a special task force sequestered from the rest of the intelligence community ensured that whatever product it finally produced would neither draw upon the collection and analytical resources available to the totality of the national intelligence community, nor represent the considered judgment of the entire community — simply put, the Russia NIA lacked the kind of community cohesiveness that gives national estimates and assessments such gravitas.

The over reliance on a single foreign source of intelligence likewise put Brennan and his task force on the path of repeating the same mistake made in the run-up to the Iraq War, where the intelligence community based so much of its assessment on a fundamentally flawed foreign intelligence source — “Curveball.”... The approach taken by Brennan’s task force in assessing Russia and its president seems eerily reminiscent of the analytical blinders that hampered the U.S. intelligence community when it came to assessing the objectives and intent of Saddam Hussein and his inner leadership regarding weapons of mass destruction."

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/07/16/russia-gate-report-ignored-iraq-wmd-lessons/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Ritter

5
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 10, 2017, 08:39:26 AM »
The Atlantic doesn't think highly of The Palmer report, frequently quoted in this thread on Russiagate issues:

The linked Media Bias/Fact Check article indicates that while the Palmer Report has a strong liberal bias, it “... is typically well sourced and usually points to credible sources.”

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/palmer-report/

Extract: “The Palmer Report is a news and opinion blog/website created by Bill Palmer a current writer and owner of Daily News Bin.  The Palmer Report is typically well sourced and usually points to credible sources.  However, there is a very strong liberal bias in reporting and story content.  The Palmer Report uses loaded words and sensational headlines that don’t always reflect the content of the article.”

The latest update from Media Bias Fact Check says:
"Update 4/18/17: ...we move the Palmer Report to our Questionable Source list due to lack of sourced evidence, numerous false and unproven reports from fact checkers and extreme bias in reporting."

6
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 09, 2017, 08:58:01 PM »
The Atlantic doesn't think highly of The Palmer report, frequently quoted in this thread on Russiagate issues:

"The Palmer Report, the publication of record for anti-Trump conspiracy nuts who don’t care about the credibility of the record"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/liberal-fever-swamps/530736/

7
Consequences / Places becoming more livable
« on: July 06, 2017, 10:23:00 PM »
Article about very interesting redistribution of humidity due to global warming. From dry to wet: Rainfall might abruptly increase in Africa’s Sahel . It's a region that historically has been more humid, and 'green' than todays very arid/desert.

"Climate change could turn one of Africa's driest regions into a very wet one by suddenly switching on a Monsoon circulation. For the first time, scientists find evidence in computer simulations for a possible abrupt change to heavy seasonal rainfall in the Sahel, a region that so far has been characterized by extreme dryness. They detect a self-amplifying mechanism which might kick-in beyond 1.5-2 degrees Celsius of global warming."

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/from-dry-to-wet-rainfall-might-abruptly-increase-in-africa2019s-sahel

Research article, paywalled:
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 04, 2017, 07:43:24 AM »
OT sorry (antarctic), but just want to make sure everyone has seen this:
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/


Nice ending quote from that great article: "The fuse is lit,” says Blankenship. “We’re just running around mapping where all the bombs are."

9
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 30, 2017, 02:11:19 PM »

We know Russia meddled with the elections.

No, we don't.
We know that NSA says so, without providing any proof at all. They claim that it was Russian military intelligence, specifically the Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU, that conducted the cyber attacks. This is just a laughable allegation. More probably this is a false trail, by hackers using standard techniques of leaving such false trails.
Further, we know that CIA has developed virus software with sophisticated means leaving false trails pointing directly to Russia. E.g. the 'Grasshopper' virus, where CIA was re-using Russian hacker code, creating "Russian" hackers' signatures, as revealed by wikileaks. These viruses are available on the dark web, for anyone wanting to do "Russian" hacks.

It's likely the various hacks were done by Russian speaking hackers. But we ceertainly don't know their nationality, and we most certainly don't know who assigned them. Could be interested parties from the USA, e.g., who would have a clearer motive to influence the elections than the GRU.

10
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 25, 2017, 07:43:01 PM »
In an article published today in Die Welt, Seymour Hersh analyzes the alleged attack with chemical gas (sarin) by the Syrian army on April 4 this year. After seeing TV pictures of alleged gas attack victims on TV news, Trump got upset by Assad and promptly fired some 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles on a Syran airbase. MSM span the story about a chemical gas attack wildly, but there were doubts about the authenticity of evidence provided by jihadists in Syria, and a lot of confusing and conflicting evidence. Still, the incident made for a policy change on T-admin's policy in Syria, and the US is now more actively taking part in the fighting not only against ISIS, but also against the Assad regime.

Hersh finds that there was no gas attack after all, and it wasn't sarin either. He quotes sources within US intelligence, foremost “a senior adviser to the American intelligence community, who has served in senior positions in the Defense Department and Central Intelligence Agency”.
It seems that the analysis made by the Russians right after the bombing was correct after all: there were secondary explosions after the delivery of a large, guided bomb by a Syrian fighter jet, that blew up a large building where some top jihadists had a meeting going on. However, on the ground floor there was a storage with chemicals that was blown up together with the building, and those chemicals caused poisioning of locals.

Die Welt is one of the most well renowned German newspapers, and Hersh is a Pulitzer prize winning journalist. Also, Die Welt has gotten full disclosure of Hersh's sources, and checked the story with the central source in the US.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165905578/Trump-s-Red-Line.html

On Hersh and the sources for the article:
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165906452/The-Fog-of-War.html

11
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: June 21, 2017, 06:47:40 PM »
This graph shows that population growth is to a large extent an African issue.

12
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: June 21, 2017, 06:31:52 PM »
So, the 2017 revision of population forecasts are released:
"According to the results of the 2017 Revision, the world’s population numbered nearly 7.6 billion as of mid-2017 (table 1), implying that the world has added approximately one billion inhabitants over the last twelve years."

New estimates are that we're heading
to 8.5 billion people 2030,  i.e. one more billion in the next 12.5 years
to 9.8 billion people 2050,
to 11.2 billion 2100

Pretty stable estimates, figures were more or less the same in the previous report.

13
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: June 20, 2017, 04:36:18 PM »
Fascinating figure.

14
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: June 20, 2017, 04:34:56 PM »
Tomorrow, the UN will release the updated World Population Prospects. The last figures are from 2015 and show that we're heading to 9.7 billion people 2050, and 11.2 billion 2100, (from todays 7.5 billion).
Fertility is declining in fast-growing Africa.

15
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: June 19, 2017, 09:59:32 PM »
32 000 hectares ablaze in Siberia, near Irkutsk, and another 10 000 hectares at Baikal see.

http://tayga.info/134863

16
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 19, 2017, 05:48:24 AM »
House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes said Saturday there “was never any collusion between Donald Trump and the Russians,” casting himself as a victim of media bias and calling on Washington to “stop chasing Russian ghosts".

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/18/nunes-trump-russia-239674

17
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 19, 2017, 05:36:46 AM »
I think it's quite unlikely that, for example, GRU would commit to hacking companies in the United States that work with the voting system. Which is what NSA claims in the report recently leaked to the "Intercept".

Here is the leaked evidence that Russian intelligence was involved in the 2016 election interference, not hackers:...
Only that there is no single piece of evidence in that report from the NSA, only empty allegations. I agree that it likely was Russian speaking hackers doing this, but there is simply no evidence that they were working on behalf of Russia. I'd say, they didn't.

18
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 19, 2017, 05:21:11 AM »
So your theory is that someone in the alt right did the hacking and set it up to look like it was Russia? Despite it being the consensus of the entire intelligence community that Russia was the culprit?

So how do you explain away Russian election hacking/active measures in the UK, France, Austria, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Norway, Germany, and Ukraine?

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-election-hacking-france-us-606314


I'd say, that any 'political' hacking would involve false traces. You never use generic IP numbers e.g., you always use VPN's to hide where you are and from where the communication takes place.
You also try to create false 'signatures', little traces that reveal the hacker's style, his native language, etc.
CIA mastered this technique, see the complete documentation of the 'Grasshopper' virus:
https://wikileaks.org/vault7/#Grasshopper
It's all in the public domain, ready to use for anyone, and the code comes complete with "stolen goods", i.e. code reused from Russian hackers that give false traces pointing to Russia. Neat, isn't it?
As regards France, it has already been explained away by the chief of national cyber security in France, Mr Poupard (at ANSSI), short version here:
http://time.com/4801295/russia-hacking-cyber-security-france-french-election-emmanuel-macron-apt28/
"ANSSI's investigation found no trace behind the Macron hack of the notorious hacking group APT28 — identified by the U.S. government as a Russian intelligence outfit and blamed for hacks of the U.S. election campaign, anti-doping agencies and other targets."
For the full interview see:
http://www.heraldextra.com/news/world/ap-interview-france-warns-of-risk-of-war-in-cyberspace/article_e1105234-03bb-5149-98b0-abf32b900e25.html

Rogers at NSA was misinformed.
As for the other countries mentioned... Allegations there are, but where are the proofs?

19
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 18, 2017, 09:53:52 PM »
Trump's silence is deafening:
"Trump’s silence on Russian hacking hands Democrats new weapon"
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/17/trump-russia-hacking-silence-democrats-239656
Extract: "Democrats say Trump has yet to express public concern about the underlying issue with striking implications for America's democracy."


He might be silent about this, as there are no real proofs of any hacking by Russia as a country. I think we should be very careful to point fingers anywhere here.

The Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska is an interesting name in this context. Clearly, he knows something about this matter. A couple of weeks ago, NYT wrote that he wants to give testimony to the congressional committee, to which he replies:
"The story set out by the NYT is that I allegedly have information about Russia's interference in the US elections, but that I'm not ready to provide it before I am guaranteed immunity. Both of these statements are untrue and are an absolute lie," Deripaska said in a statement.
Deripaska, an aluminum magnate, stressed that "I really do have evidence - which of course is unpleasant for some - that testifies directly to the opposite of the story of Russian intervention."
He called the article as "true only in certain moments, but in essence false and misleading."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/us/politics/oleg-deripaska-paul-manafort.html?_r=0
https://sputniknews.com/world/201705291054082986-deripaska-nyt-full-immunity-russia/

We can probably assume he knows something about the matter if he makes such a statement, and it deserves to be listened to, because Deripaska is a friend of Putin, a friend and former colleague of Manafort, he befriends various Ukrainian oligarchs, etc. What he says is plainly that it was not "Russia" that did the hacking. If we assume that the NSA is correct that it was "russians" who did the hacking, the question still remains: Who assigned them?

These hacks could well have been organized by someone in the alt-right camp. They would then have used the virus arsenal from CIA with built in false traces pointing to russian origins (as revealed and released by wikileaks), they would have engaged Russian-speaking hackers to generate hackers' 'signatures' that falsely implied Russia.
There is a principal difference between "russians" and "Russia". Lot's of russians live in other countries, more than 3 millions live in the US, very many live in former Soviet republics like Ukraine, e.g. many Ukrainians also have russian as their native language.

I think it's quite unlikely that, for example, GRU would commit to hacking companies in the United States that work with the voting system. Which is what NSA claims in the report recently leaked to the "Intercept". Russia's security service (GRU) has to be considered serious in its activities and always to make a calculation of reward / risk in any activities regarding foreign entities. That GRU officials would busy themselves by hacking actors in the US voting system (which is what the NSA claims, saying it was "Russian government hackers") must reasonably involve a very high risk of detection, with negative, and potentially catastrophic consequences, such as extended sanctions against Russia. I believe that the Russian signatures detected by US intelligence are just false traces laid out by the actual perpetrators. Eventually, Deripaska or someone else with inside knowledge will come forward and tell us who the real organizer is. My hunch: Go for Manafort and his buddies, look into the alt-right undervegetation of the Trump movement.


20
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 04, 2017, 12:57:43 PM »
Russiagate humor:

https://t.co/5z75ErIFFI

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 01, 2017, 05:29:12 PM »
... Huge area of shallow waters indeed, in any case.
... Shallow waters warm up real quick in compare to deep ocean areas, and warmer water produces correspondedly more evaporation, much of which will end up forming up clouds in Arctic itself, right?
...extra-warm water from ESAS will contribute to warm ocean currents during the season, as well...


I think these are very important points, as we will see probable temperature differentials between the shelfs of AO and the deeper ocean.
Some Swedish researchers have studied the physiography, hypsometry, and volume of the Arctic Ocean and its constituent seas, which adds important detail to the mere classification of contintal shelf vs. deep water ocean.
As you mention, warm ocean currents might extend further into Kara and Laptev, and possibly even to ESS. In any case, the Atlantic halocline in the AO will be influenced by warming shelf waters, which will influence the Arctic Ocean Boundary Current.

http://www.geo.su.se/index.php/sv/projekt-arkiv/344-physiography-hypsometry-and-volume-of-the-arctic-ocean

22
The only large emitter country not to be party to the Paris accord at this point is Russia.

I am totally flabbergasted at  how the Republicans have climbed into bed with Putin and Russia.  What's a larger change in direction than 180°?


Russia ratified the agreement in April 2016. Or is it just Russian propaganda?

http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2248604

23
Used to be G8, then Russia was suspended
Now, Trump is the spielverderber and we got only six left.

24
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 16, 2017, 03:21:35 PM »
So now the President is a traitor to the US, having leaked highly-classified intelligence to the Russians who visited with him in the Oval Office out of sight of the American press the day after he fired the Director of the FBI who was investigating Trump for colluding with the Russians.

I suppose tomorrow we'll be subjected to McConnell and Ryan saying that we simply can't respond every time the President discloses classified data to our enemies...

Maybe we should call it co-operation?

25
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but India...
« on: May 10, 2017, 07:17:56 PM »
Solar power is already cheaper than FF alternatives in India - prices have fallen to 2.62 rupees per kilowatt hour, i..e  4 cents  (USD). Wholesale auction price. Last year’s previous record lowest bid was 4.34 rupees per kWh so it's a very dramatic fall in prices.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/10/indian-solar-power-prices-hit-record-low-undercutting-fossil-fuels

26
Glaciers / Re: Alpine Glaciers
« on: May 02, 2017, 07:23:26 PM »
Desperation in the Alps, the snow season has 40 fewer days now, than in the 1970's. Ski resorts at both low and high altitudes saw snow arrive, on average, 12 days later and disappear 25 days earlier in 2015 than in 1970.
So, get the snow cannons out, let's increase the albedo a bit to save a few meters of glacier.
Don't know if the project's calculations are over-optimistic, "...calculations suggest that 4,000 snow machines running each year could grow the Morteratsch glacier by 800 meters within 20 years. The artificial-snow covering required at any given time is modest: a few centimeters thick and covering an area of about 0.5 sq. km at any given time. As the glacier thickens, the machines move to another patch of the glacier and start pumping out snow again."

https://qz.com/972621/to-save-its-famous-morteratsch-glacier-switzerland-is-testing-blowing-artificial-snow-to-prevent-glacier-melt/

27
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: April 27, 2017, 09:54:06 AM »
terry m
your memory is faulty to the point of malice.
crimea was just another invasion of russian troops to "protect"
russian citizens, a ploy used by hitler and stalin in order to grab land
to deny this means you are not who you say you are in your posts
but that you are playing us for fools

I've been to Crimea numerous times, and have lived in Russia for several years so have some insights into this.
Crimea basically has a Russian population (>90%), it was part of Russia for hundreds of years and the Russian SSR until Khruschev for stupid reasons gave it as a gift to the Ukrainian SSR back in the '50's.
It's a fact that the Russian population was discriminated against by the Ukrainians, once the Soviet system collapsed. Crimeans wholeheartedly wanted to be returned to Russia, and welcomed their liberation from Ukraine.
I'd say that the return of Crimea to Russia was a correction of a historic mistake made by Khruschev. Yes, it was done in total disregard to Ukraine. On the other hand, a coup d'etat was staged against the democratically elected president (yanukovich)  of Ukraine at the same time, so the annexation of Crimea must be understood in that context.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: March 17, 2017, 08:07:51 PM »
More reports on PSCs

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=14&month=02&year=2017

What else could cause the growth in PSCs than intercontinental aviation?
Modern planes like the Dreamliner cruise at very high altitudes, like 36 000 feet, well into the stratosphere.
Intercontinental aviation across the Arctic  has increased  quite a bit in recent years, with budget airlines like Virgin or Norwegian. Most flights from Europe to the US pass Greenland and Newfoundland, e.g. And dominating wind patterns will blow the contrail clouds further NE.


29
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: March 17, 2017, 07:56:49 PM »

A new study from NASA has shown that the jet engines using biofuels have fewer particle emissions in their exhaust trails.
"As a result, the observed particle reductions we've measured during ACCESS should directly translate into reduced ice crystal concentrations in contrails, which in turn should help minimize their impact on Earth's environment,"
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/17/biofuels-cut-jet-engine-pollution-nasa-study-shows.html

I believe that aviation over the Arctic ocean contributes to the creation of polar stratospheric clouds. These contribute to the warming over the Arctic, according to a research paper previously reported on the forum.
Scientists recently discovered that polar stratospheric clouds, long known to play an important role in Antarctic ozone destruction, are occurring with increasing frequency in the Arctic. The PSCs have been frequently seen in northern parts of Scandinavia during this winter, according to various reports.
http://earthsky.org/earth/wow-polar-stratospheric-clouds


30
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 17, 2017, 09:09:10 AM »
African hotbed just getting worse:
"The Nile River Delta, once known as the bread basket of the world, may soon be unable to support even the population of Egypt. According to a multi-year study published in the Geological Society of America this week, the area where the Nile river drains out to the sea is suffering from decreased water flow, rising sea levels, and salt water intrusion—all of which damage food production and fresh water supplies.

“With a population expected to double in the next 50 years, Egypt is projected to have critical countrywide fresh water and food shortages by 2025,” the researchers from the University of Colorado wrote in a summary of the study."

https://qz.com/934106/egypts-nile-river-delta-once-the-bread-basket-of-the-world-may-soon-be-uninhabitable/

31
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: March 15, 2017, 08:43:32 PM »
From deep Africa, where population growth is exponential, given that women marry at very young age and give birth to very many children:
"Having lots of children is the norm because they bring wealth (“they come with two hands to work but only one mouth to feed”). So why have four when you could have seven?"

According to the article, women don't want to use contraceptives, even when they are readily available, because they like to have many children.

The article illustrates why population growth is sure to continue for many decades to come.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/mar/15/why-have-four-children-when-you-could-have-seven-contraception-niger

32
The rest / Re: Recovery/prevention of desertification
« on: March 15, 2017, 10:30:23 AM »
A new paper authored by archeologists with Seoul National University has suggested that the Sahara Desert, once green and wet, dried out as a result of the actions of ancient peoples. The spread of agriculture depleted the Sahara’s plant life and caused the region’s the shift to a desert biome, the paper claims.
Very interesting research, with some implications for what's going on in the Arctic now.

"The underlying causes of this drying and desertification has previously been attributed to subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit, which in turn influenced atmospheric weather patterns and led to a reduction of the amount of rainfall in northern Africa. But Wright, whose scientific research has led him to exploring Neolithic-age archaeological sites all over the world, suggests that this is not the full picture. “In East Asia there are long established theories of how Neolithic populations changed the landscape so profoundly that monsoons stopped penetrating so far inland”, explains Wright, also noting in his paper that evidence of human-driven ecological and climatic change has been documented in Europe, North America and New Zealand. Wright believed that similar scenarios could also apply to the Sahara."

https://blog.frontiersin.org/2017/03/14/did-humans-create-the-sahara-desert/

Full paper:
http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2017.00004/full

33
Thanks for the link, very good lecture with several fascinating graphs.

I especiall liked what he talked about the relation between temperature change and sea level, where on the long term a one degree C change translates into 20 meters of sea level change.

The total amplitude for sea level change is about 200 meter, and the total amplitude for average earth temperature is about 10 degrees C, that's how he gets the 20 meters per one degree C.
This of course is the long term steady state, and it basically means that we have already locked in our first 20 meters of sea level rise, given that earth av. temperature has risen about 1 C. He claims that about 14 meters of marine-based ice is 'meta-stable' in W.Antarctica.

He start to talk about this at around 1.02

At 1.18 he comes into the speed of SLR, and says that what we're currently seeing, is rather small in comparison to SLR that was e.g. around 15 ka ago

34
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: March 02, 2017, 10:20:13 AM »
Not good.
"... unless emissions of methane and black carbon are reduced immediately, the
Earth’s average surface temperature will warm by 1.5°C by about 2030 and by 2.0°C by 2045 to 2050 whether or not carbon dioxide emissions are reduced."

But absolutely nothing is done to reduce methane, AFAIK. On the contrary, natural gas continues to expand as a 'clean' substitute for other FF.

Quote from:
A bridge to nowhere: methane emissions and the
greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas
Robert W. Howarth


//attached file instead

35
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: February 28, 2017, 08:48:57 AM »
The Pope intervenes on climate change.
He explicitly rejects the idea of population growth as a strain on global resources. “Demographic growth is fully compatible with an integral and shared development,” the pope wrote. “To blame population growth instead of extreme and selective consumerism on the part of some, is one way of refusing to face the issues.”

Dr. Paul Ehrlich, one of America’s leading biologists has dismissed as “raving nonsense” the pope’s call for action on climate change – so long as the leader of the world’s 1 billion Catholics rejects the need for population control.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/24/popes-climate-stance-is-nonsense-rejects-population-control-says-top-us-scientist

36
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: February 28, 2017, 08:33:20 AM »
"China is considering introducing birth rewards and subsidies to encourage people to have a second child, after surveys showed economic constraints were making many reluctant to expand their families, the state-owned China Daily has reported.
---
China began implementing its controversial one-child policy in the 1970s in order to limit population growth, but authorities are now concerned that the country’s dwindling workforce will not be able to support an increasingly ageing population."

This is bad news, not least because of the size of the Chinese population.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/28/china-considers-paying-couples-to-have-a-second-child

37
Science / Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« on: February 27, 2017, 05:35:54 PM »
Depressing chart.

It looks more depressing than it should. Long term accumulative developments should be illustrated with a logarithmic scale plot, not linear scale.
The linear plot is impossible to read, it's just confusing because it obscures what it purports to illustrate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-log_plot#Microbial_growth

38
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: February 23, 2017, 01:58:55 PM »
I think it will be worse far more often, and soon. Look at Cali right now. There will be even more excess water vapour as a result of an ice free arctic, in conjunction with unstable jet streams, this is a volatile combo.

This is an interesting topic!
I really don't understand how less ice in the Arctic creates floods in CA, would appreciate if you could please explain the mechanism! In what way was the jet stream conducive to bring about the atmosperic river that hit CA?

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Polar Vortex/SSW effects on Ice
« on: February 18, 2017, 06:07:50 PM »
"The Sun has not yet rise over the Arctic, so how the stratosphere will stay warm until the end of March? Will waves activity continue during March to sustain the warming of the Stratosphere until the Sun rises and brings energy to the polar stratosphere? "

Thanks for your interesting posts, aslan.

The sunrise is much earlier in the stratosphere than on ground. Without attempting the calculation, I'd guess that the stratospheric polar night has already ended by the current date, mid-February.

40
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 04, 2017, 10:47:32 PM »
Rule Britannia:
"THE QUEEN has confirmed that if President Trump makes a state visit, she can kill him with a sword and nobody can touch her.
Palace staff have assured the Queen that, according to English law, Trump is a subject of the Crown and can, if judged to be damaging the monarchy, be dispatched without repercussion."

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/legally-i-can-kill-him-queen-confirms-20170131121313

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 18, 2017, 09:37:13 AM »

Companies are set to gain ungodly amounts of money as they unemploy millions of truck and bus drivers around the world. This will not be a good thing.

I notice that they aren't talking about automating pilots of planes, but maybe because that would freak out the wealthier classes too much?


I worked as a bus driver for a few years. I think it's a fantastic thing to liberate humans from such meaningless occupations as driving vehicles for a living.

http://nightflight.com/terry-gilliams-the-crimson-permanent-assurance-elderly-accountant-pirates-taking-on-the-very-big-corporation-of-america/

As regards automating pilots of planes it's already done, modern planes are to a very large degree autopiloted: they start, fly and land all by themselves . Pilots are more of supervisors.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewables Reach a Tipping Point...
« on: January 17, 2017, 06:56:45 PM »
Where the sun ALWAYS shines: Saudi Arabia goes renewable, with heavy investments in near time:

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest oil producer, is aiming for renewable energy installations, primarily of solar and wind, of 9.5 GW by 2023, but this is just the starting point, the country’s energy minister told.  By 2030, the country will generate 70 percent of its electricity from natural gas and 30 percent from renewables and other sources, promised Al-Falih.

http://saudigazette.com.sa/business/ksa-launch-30b-50b-renewable-energy-program/

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 15, 2017, 09:23:58 PM »

Translation:  Polar Cell is almost gone -- if not completely gone.

An interesting aspect of the Hadley cell in relation to the other two cells, is that it behaves very differently over the Northern Atlantic than over land, or over the Pacific. So, can we talk of the extension of the Hadley cell only over the Atlantic, and the collapse of the other two cells only in the sector to the North of the Atlantic?
Further, if the Hadley cell extends in this sector, can it be expected to extend to the North also over land, as a result of that change?
Maybe should be moved to stupid questions thread...

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 15, 2017, 04:23:22 PM »
As soon as there i an infrastructure in place in terms of mass-scale production facilities for EV's and batteries ('giga-factories'), as well as charging stations nation-wide, the growth of EV sales will explode. (However, I don't rule out that fuel cell technology will be a strong competitor to battery EV's in a few years time.)
This development will be helped by regulations that will price out standard ICE vehicles in favor of renewably powered electric ones. The Battery EVs will likely sport 1,000 mile range and superior performance already in 10 years time.
Why would anyone even want an ICE?
Why worry about rare earths, when - on a larger scale - the whole earth is under strong threat from climate change? Green BAU is what we'll have to live with, as long as consumerism rules the minds of the masses.

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 15, 2017, 03:31:31 PM »
... estimated global sales in 2017 of plug-in vehicles of about 850,000 units and a global EV fleet of about 2.1 million units.  The current ICE global vehicle fleet is around 1.2 BILLION units and expected to grow to 2 billion by 2035. Global auto sales are now around 84 million units/yr and "could" to rise to 127 million/yr by 2035
So even at an EV growth rate of say 30%/yr sustained it will take DECADES to wash ICE vehicles out of the global fleet. 

With a 30% growth rate/y it will actually take 27 years or so to get from 2.1 million to 2 billion EV's, se figures below. It's not unrealistic, and it shows that we can quickly phase out ICE cars.
Another question is if there will be demand for so many cars, once self-driving über fleets/carpools start to become competitively priced.

1   2100000
2   2730000
3   3 549 000
4   4 613 700
5   5 997 810
6   7 797 153
7   10 136 299
8   13 177 189
9   17 130 345
10   22 269 449
11   28 950 283
12   37 635 368
13   48 925 979
14   63 603 772
15   82 684 904
16   107 490 375
17   139 737 488
18   181 658 734
19   236 156 355
20   307 003 261
21   399 104 239
22   518 835 511
23   674 486 164
24   876 832 014
25   1 139 881 618
26   1 481 846 103
27   1 926 399 934

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: January 15, 2017, 10:38:02 AM »
Thanks for the link to that article. It's very extensive regarding environmental impact of trash burning facilities. But it doesn't even mention emissions of carbon dioxide, although more than 30% of trash is organic matter.
Interestingly, landfills are known emitters of methane, but burning trash supposedly puts a lot of CO2 directly into the atmosphere.
Meanwhile, global population grows from 7.5 billion to 10+ billion already 2050, creating ever more trash.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 11, 2017, 11:08:45 AM »
Paddy, looks like we are sucked into a black hole.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 22, 2016, 10:24:23 PM »
Arctic lakes thawing earlier each year

Scientists from the University of Southampton have found Arctic lakes, covered with ice during the winter months, are melting earlier each spring.

The team, who monitored 13,300 lakes using satellite imagery, have shown that on average ice is breaking up one day earlier per year, based on a 14-year period between 2000 and 2013. Their findings are published in the Nature journal Scientific Reports.
...
They found a strong relationship between decreasing ice cover and an increasingly early spring temperature rise.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-12/uos-alt121916.php
This will affect sea ice if the albedo of the region drops one day early yet again.  Or will it be even earlier this coming spring?

Very interesting, and also a solid evidence of global warming.

I believe this trend is much longer than that.
You can compare with the lengthening of meteorological summer. Sweden has an interesting definition of "summer": that's when the average temperature stays above +10 C for at least five days in a row. In the graph attached they defined the average length of Summer from 1969-1990, and then looked at deviations at four different places (Stockholm e.g. is on N60 latitude, Falun and Haparanda are to the north, and Växjö to the south).
Green columns mean that Summer is longer, measured in nr of weeks, blue columns that Summer is shorter.
It turns out that Summer has indeed become longer on average, in Stockholm and Falun it's about 2-3 weeks longer Summer nowadays compared to the average. I suppose the same trend is noticable in the warming Arctic region.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 21, 2016, 11:18:44 PM »
As it is, with the winter solstice behind us shouldn't make things easier. Now the sun will shine in areas that in the past were covered in ice, increasing insolation earlier than ever. Will the arctic grow fast enough to cover that up before the sun becomes significant?
....

There is no sun up there for another month or two. E.g. on Svalbard, civil polar night lasts from about 11 November until 30 January. Svalbard is on N75-80, so polar night is even longer further up.
The main winter months in terms of freezing are January and February. The little sun that will emerge in February is more or less hanging on the horizon and is not able to melt any ice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_night

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