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Messages - gerontocrat

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 11
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 21, 2017, 08:10:06 PM »
I am waiting for a clapped out vessel full up of nasty stuff operated by a shonky outfit to boldly go where such a heap of junk should not.


Does the Crystal Serenity fit that description?

Lol actually

The "Costa Concordia". The apparently best run ship can run aground, let alone a tramp riding on a hope and a prayer.
A genuine old sea dog once told me "the ocean is not the danger, it is the coast".

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 21, 2017, 04:43:03 PM »
I am waiting for a clapped out vessel full up of nasty stuff operated by a shonky outfit to boldly go where such a heap of junk should not.

3
The rest / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 21, 2017, 02:29:02 PM »
From JAXA data
Since 14th August Arctic sea ice extent loss has been less than average, while Antarctic extent gain has been greater than average. This has resulted in global extent gains as opposed to "normal" global extent losses. This is obvious in the graph below.

In every year except one, the maximum global extent occurs in late October / early November.
The exception is 2016. The maximum global extent that year was on 7th July, at 23.76 million km2. The Oct/Nov minimum happened on 6th November at 23.64 million km2, within a day or two that Antarctic sea ice extent his a new low in the satellite record.
Is this the future? Are the patterns of global extent and gain changing for good ?

The first table shows some possible outcomes of the end of season (Aug/Sept) minimum.
The second table shows some possible outcomes of the Oct/Nov maximum.

4
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 21, 2017, 02:09:20 PM »
JAXA Data.

Since 14th August, Antarctic sea ice extent gain has been well above the average, almost a mirror of the low extent loss in the Arctic.
I attach a table and graph.
I also attach an extract of the next 5 day max temperature image from cci-reanalyzer. Note the "feathers" at the top and bottom? I've never seen that before. Mind you, it is very windy down there at the moment - thin sea ice at the margins being swirled into patterns?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 21, 2017, 01:54:14 PM »
On Aug 14th I foolishly wrote:-
" I will be surprised if this end of season comes up with a surprise."

And now:-
Until then conditions for melting were negative to average but extent loss cheerfully pottered along.
Now:-
- Arctic Ocean SST anomalies have been and are high,
- DMI 80+ N has ticked up a degree or two from below average,
- cci-reanalyzer has had the Arctic temperature anomaly at about 1 degree celsius above average.

And extent loss is well below average. 4.2 million is now the result of average extent loss from now to minimum, with less than 4 weeks to go.

6
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 21, 2017, 01:32:11 PM »
Images from
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

The surface mass balance map (todaysmb) below shows a lot of mass gain in the southern half of Greenland, especially the SW corner. cci-reanalyzer says this was rain on the coast and snow in the interior. cci-reanalyzer also says rain in the south for the next few days. This I presume will show as additional mass in the surface mass balance.

One then starts to wonder about the processes about what happens to rainfall - soaks into the snow that remains,  forms streams and escapes to the oceans or plunges down to bedrock (or all three) ? If Greenland is going to get warmer and wetter (snowier and rainier) presumably this will significantly change the future evolution of the ice sheet ?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 19, 2017, 01:28:05 PM »
.... a fee if search-and-rescue is needed.

The written and unwritten Law of The Sea requires assistance to be given to anyone in distress on the sea without counting the cost.

Where exactly in UNCLOS do you see that requirement (especially the part about "without counting the cost") ?


Maybe not in UNCLOS (though I am surprised if there is no reference within it to many other treaties on this).

See - http://www.pacmar.com/story/2015/07/01/maritime-law/rescue-at-sea/357.html

Extract below.

International Treaties

There are several international treaties to which the United States is a signatory that impose a duty on mariners to give assistance to persons in danger at sea. For example, in 1910, the Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules of Law Relating to Assistance and Salvage At Sea [Brussels Convention] was adopted. It was ratified by the United States and came into force in 1913.

Article 11 of the Brussels Convention provides: “Every master is bound, so far as he can do so without serious danger to his vessel, her crew and passengers, to render assistance to everybody, even though an enemy, found at sea in danger of being lost.” Article 11 also provides that a vessel owner is not liable for the master’s failure to render the required aid.

The International Convention on Salvage [Salvage Convention] was adopted in 1989 and replaced the Brussels Convention. It was ratified by the United States in 1992 and came into force in 1996. Article 10 of the Salvage Convention has three parts. The first part provides: “Every master is bound, so far as he can do so without serious danger to his vessel and persons thereon, to render assistance to any person in danger of being lost at sea.” The second part requires the signatory countries to adopt measures necessary to enforce the first part. The third part exempts a vessel owner from liability if the vessel’s master breaches the duty imposed by the first part. Article 16 provides that the person whose life is saved from danger at sea does not owe compensation to anyone for doing so.

The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea [SOLAS] was first adopted in 1914 in response to the Titanic disaster. It has been amended several times since. The version in effect today was adopted in 1974 and entered into force in 1980. Regulation 33 provides: “[t]he master of a ship at sea which is in a position to be able to provide assistance, on receiving information from any source that persons are in distress at sea, is bound to proceed with all speed to their assistance, if possible informing them or the search and rescue service that the ship is doing so.”

None of these treaties provides for a penalty or enforcement mechanism. That aspect is left to the signatory countries.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 19, 2017, 09:55:47 AM »

.... a fee if search-and-rescue is needed.

The written and unwritten Law of The Sea requires assistance to be given to anyone in distress on the sea without counting the cost.

9
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Tectonics
« on: August 17, 2017, 01:55:11 PM »

Is not the rebound a see-saw effect, wherein a bit of the Earth's crust rises as another part sinks?


The Article I read about this used an analogy. Imagine a big lump of dough on your table top. Plonk a heavy weight in the middle. The middle sinks and the periphery outside the weight rises. Remove the weight - the centre rises and the periphery sinks - slowly.

But I am a "wish I had been" geologist

10
The rest / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 17, 2017, 01:01:17 PM »
A Confession:-

Two days ago I posted a table concerning Global Sea Ice Extent with the following warning.

JAXA data says that on average (2007-2016) remaining Arctic extent loss is 0.2 million km2 greater than Antarctic extent gain. However, the end dates of freezing and melting are unlikely to be the same. This complicates matters. So it is with some trepidation, misgivings and a BEWARE notice that I include the little table below of some possible end of season outcomes.

The table was arithmetically correct, but wrong. The methodology of just looking at remaining extent loss and extent gain misses further losses due to the timing of events.
The sequence of events over the next one to 5 weeks seems to be (on average) :-
- arctic extent loss exceeds antarctic extent gain up to the antarctic maximum. Global extent reduces.
- antarctic maximum is reached a few days before arctic minimum meaning further global extent reduction.
- for a few days after arctic minimum (until mid-September) arctic extent gain is still less than antarctic ice loss.
- Arctic freezing gets into high gear and exceeds antarctic extent loss until end-October/Mid-November, at which point Global Sea Ice Extent is at the maximum.
- Then the Antarctic Spring Summer ice extent loss far exceeds arctic winter gain. Global Sea Ice Extent drops.

However, the sequence of events is highly variable. The new table below shows that in the last 10 years the Autumn minimum of global sea ice has happened as early as 23 Aug and as late as the 20 September.

Methinks 'tis the Antarctic that will decide - if 2017 repeats the 2016 low maximum and early rapid extent that made it lowest in the satellite record by November 5th then........

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 17, 2017, 12:30:50 PM »
It is called the 200 mile exclusive economic area, and is about exploitation of the oceans. However, that does not normally apply to freedom of movement of ships outside the 12 mile limit, which is the limit of jurisdiction over shipping - power to arrest, for example. Beyond 12 miles, it is the Law of the Sea.

Russia is therefore using the old fashioned law "Power Gives The Right" to bully submission. And who can stop them ? No-one.

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: August 16, 2017, 03:04:27 PM »
Coal Plants Might Be Even More Toxic Than We Thought
An environmental disaster in North Carolina reveals that a rare, potentially dangerous compound is abundant in burned coal.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/coal-plants-might-be-even-more-toxic-than-we-thought

13
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Tectonics
« on: August 16, 2017, 02:36:44 PM »
I thought to have a look at where these volcanoes are. I have to say I did not have a clue about how much of Antarctica is below sea level. Wikipedia Maps is super.

14
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 16, 2017, 02:07:18 PM »
South Asia Floods. About 250 dead

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2017/08/deadly-floods-hit-south-asian-states-170816080459925.html

Half the deaths were in Nepal plus other landslides in Himalayan Foothills of India.
Was there not an awful lot of snow in the Himalayas last winter? Can't have helped when an extra strong monsoon arrived.

15
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 15, 2017, 12:59:15 PM »
Greenland Melt is turning into Surface Mass Budget Gain. Loads of precipitation in the North-West. Snow ?
GOTO http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

16
The rest / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 15, 2017, 12:22:13 PM »
 JAXA total extent as at 14 Aug is 22.228 million km2, some 0,12 million km2 less than the NSIDC figure, i.e. insignificant.

JAXA data says that on average (2007-2016) remaining Arctic extent loss is 0.2 million km2 greater than Antarctic extent gain. However, the end dates of freezing and melting are unlikely to be the same. This complicates matters. So it is with some trepidation, misgivings and a BEWARE notice that I include the little table below of some possible end of season outcomes.

added a graph

17
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 14, 2017, 10:49:24 PM »
Good heavens Bill.
What else have you got inside your computer?

Your image as an oldie unable to function without a few beers is under threat.

But - if the Antarctic max is early, and as is also very possible, the Arctic min staggers along through September, whither the global sea ice extent ?
"I want to know".

18
Iraq sends workers home as 'ungodly' heat grips Middle East

"In Kuwait, where birds have reportedly dropped from the skies, and Riyadh, where building work has ceased this week, locals have called for mercy from a hotter-than-normal air mass that has remained nearly stationary over central Arabia for more than three weeks, stretching the capacity of electricity networks beyond limits."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/10/iraq-sends-workers-home-as-ungodly-heat-grips-middle-east

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 14, 2017, 02:58:10 PM »
2 weeks ago, I had arrived at a similar conclusion. I did this with no statistical calculations (which clearly you have used)
My statistical calculations are simply arithmetic, and I mean confined to + - x / % plus the square and the cube. Once upon a time I had the idea but not the energy to write a book called environmental arithmetic, to show how our understanding of what is happening to our planet can be improved by the use of the simplest of calculations, e.g. to show that the capacity of the oceans as a heat sink is just over 1,000 (one thousand) times that of the atmosphere.  That then makes one think about what will be the ice killer in the Arctic in the end.

Any success that these looks at possible outcomes has had is entirely due to the way that since early June the melting season has been so averagely average (to date). To me this has been the strangest thing about this season. I was convinced until June that the collapse in volume would be matched by a great big melt but the data refused to oblige. Ho hum.

20
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 14, 2017, 01:20:14 PM »
Jaxa Sea Ice Extent data. Average refers to 2007-2016.

By now on average 93% of extent increase is done for the year, with just over 1 million km2 extent gain to go.. The data suggests a maximum extent of between 17.7 and 18.3 million km2. If Antarctic conditions are similar to those in 2016, i.e. in reduced extent increases, then this favours an outcome at the lower end of the range and an early date for maximum.

21
Arctic Background / Re: Bathymetry, Volcanoes and Upwellings
« on: August 14, 2017, 12:33:43 PM »
A new thread appears just as ......

Scientists discover 91 volcanoes below Antarctic ice sheet

This is in addition to 47 already known about and eruption would melt more ice in region affected by climate change

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/12/scientists-discover-91-volcanos-antarctica

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 14, 2017, 12:28:35 PM »
Some numbers. Average = last 10 years 2007-2016.
On average 7/8ths (8.75 million km2) of extent loss is done, just 1.25 million to go. The maximum additional extent loss was 1.5 million km2 (in 2012), the lowest 1 million km2 (in 2013).
The range of the minimum still seems to be about 3.8 to 4.3 million, with 4.0 to 4.1 million km2 the most likely, as it has been for a good while. I will be surprised if this end of season comes up with a surprise.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 12, 2017, 07:18:45 PM »
More, more, more and more of this and that. But even less time to smell the roses.
But if that is what the world wants, so be it.0

24
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 12, 2017, 07:10:55 PM »
I feel so left out.   :'(

All I keep hearing is Trump, Kim ... Trump, Kim.  ::)

Look, here in England we got nukes too, and a not too sane PM.  How come Trump isn't threatening London with fire and fury?  His failure to so threaten can only be explained by assuming that he is completely irrational.  Sad.
Do not worry. The Boris is now taking charge - even sending Tweets. Lttle Britain will show those johnny-come-lately colonialists how to really screw up.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Year-round ice-free Arctic
« on: August 12, 2017, 03:22:13 PM »
Hullo Bill,
That max the plank institute is super-duper. Thanks for the link.
I don't bieve the timing of the summer blue ocean event. Contradicts current trends in volume loss.

26
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 11, 2017, 01:01:51 PM »
How deep is the peat in that part of Greenland anyway? Around Iqaluit I'm seeing it be maybe a foot or two at the deepest, and generally just inches.


This is a quote from a 2010 report by the Danish Geological Survey. (http://www.posiva.fi/files/1244/WR_2010-07web.pdf)

"Soils are generally thin, and especially in the gneiss regions rather poor in plant nutrients. Permafrost occurs throughout the ice free areas of Greenland. It is continuous in the north, discontinuous along parts of the central east and west coast and occurs as isolated patches in the south. Kangerlussuaq is in the southernmost part of the continuous permafrost zone. "

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 10, 2017, 06:54:55 PM »
I is  confused. Are these 15 ships carrying LNG or using LNG as fuel or both.
"I want to know!"

28
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 10, 2017, 02:58:37 PM »
If it happens, it will be shock and awe doctrine. Their whole infrastructure will be destroyed like Saddam's. Lil Kim will be a goner in a matter of days.
This is the sort of talk that makes most of us Europeans shit ourselves - for good reasons.
 No, I have no idea on how to get Kim and his cohorts to back down. It is not looking good. If N. Korea attacks US Territory, e.g. Guam, then Trump can invoke Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty. How to start WW3 in two easy steps.

29
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 10, 2017, 01:44:42 PM »
Greenland, the land of ice and snow, is burning
There’s been nothing even close to this since reliable satellite-based fire detection records began in Greenland in 2000. Very small wildfires can evade satellite detection, and old-timer scientists who have worked in Greenland for decades say that micro-fires there aren’t necessarily uncommon.

This week’s fire, however, is on another level. ...
https://grist.org/article/greenland-the-land-of-ice-and-snow-is-burning/
Also robertscribbler.com - his latest is on this plus Siberia wildfires and loads of links. Could not resist lifting the graph below from his article.

Did anyone see this one coming? I certainly didn't.

30
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 10, 2017, 01:22:31 PM »
Herewith a little table indicating the possibilities for the maximum extent (per JAXA).
Three indicate a tendency for below 18 million km2, while 2012, (highest remaining freeze in the last 10 years,) shows a max of 18.4 million km2. If we had a poll, I would still be going for 18 +/- 0.25 million km2.

Half? off-topic.A real possibility of global sea ice extent max of 22 million km2 or even a bit less in early or mid-September ? That would raise some eyebrows ?

31
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: August 09, 2017, 10:18:33 PM »
Some farmers commit suicide when their livelihood is destroyed. In the soviet union when it collapsed life expectancy of men dropped like a stone as industry collapsed -many from booze. There are many ways to commit suicide. Of interest is that life expectancy of women dropped as well but by far less - mostly down to lack of medical care. The general belief that the victory of the West over the USSR was bloodless is a lie.

Severe climate change will cause severe societal disruption probably with the same results for the population in general ?

32
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 09, 2017, 09:59:44 PM »
From my time in Indonesia (of all places) I suggest that it takes a lot of rain to put out a peat fire. It gets well below the ground, and can smoulder for years without any obvious surface effects. Oxygen deprivation might do it - bring on the snow ?

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 09, 2017, 03:14:54 PM »

Using the average can be an issue here because the trend for losses from this date forward shows an annual increase of over 35,000 Km^2 per year..  So the trend figure for loss suggests the 'expected' value for this year should be about 200K Km^2 greater than the average for the past 10

Thanks DavidR.
"When the facts change, so must opinions". John Maynard Keynes
A bit more knowledge and a new graph coming on.
Quibbles (yes, there always has to be a quibble or two):-
- 2012 being so unusual. Does this distort a reasoned assessment of an underlying trend?
- I am not saying that any increase is the "expected" increase. The table merely says what extent loss has to happen in the remainder of the season for a specified minimum, and compares it with the 10 year average extent reduction. The original idea (much earlier in the season) was to show how much out of the ordinary extent loss had to be for a record low, let alone a Blue Ocean event (1 million km2), a sort of counterweight to posts in other threads.

34
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 09, 2017, 02:50:04 PM »
So much for theories. A big jump back up to 16,471,947 km2. Let's see what the long range does.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down again.
On average the extent gain is 92% done. Just 1.3 million km2 to go.
I am still plumping for a max extent of 18 million km2 +/- 0.25 million km2

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 09, 2017, 02:10:59 PM »

That's exactly it. We've seen weather similar to 2013 and 2014, the rebound years that followed 2012 (someone over on the ASIB just wrote that "According to the NOAA-ESRL measurements 2017 has been colder than 2013 and 2014 in both the Arctic and the high Arctic (80N+) over most of the May - Jul period and on average"), but 2017 just keeps digging low.

This is perhaps the most educative melting season I've seen. It means that when volume is as low as it was after a mild winter, and the weather is just slightly less clement than it was this year during May-June-July, records will be broken for sure. And I dare say than when such low volume ice at the end of winter is presented with the build-up of melting momentum seen in 2010 and 2012, or the endlessly clear skies of 2007, the Arctic could go below 1 million km2 SIA, ice-free for all practical purposes.

If the extent loss of 2012 had been repeated this year, we would be looking at a Jaxa  minimum extent of around 2.5 million km2. There is no reason to suppose the situation will improve. Just one more mild wild winter to finish the job?

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 09, 2017, 01:42:49 PM »
Some data (Jaxa Sea Ice Extent as at 8th August). Average quoted is 2007-2016.

The last few days of above average extent loss has changed things a bit. 2nd lowest now seems much more possible (though a 2012 minimum does not).
By now on average 84% (8.4 million) of extent loss for the year is done. 2017 extent loss is 8.2 million.
Average extent loss in the remainder of the year is 1.6 million. The maximum extent loss from Aug 8 to minimum in the last 10 years was 2 million (2012), the lowest 1.34 million (2013). So there is still scope for significant change. However, for a record low minimum, extent loss of 2.5 million would be required. So I am sticking with 3.75 to 4.25 million in the poll.

37
Also going for 4.25 to 4.75 million km2, based on a daily Jaxa extent minimum of 4.1 million km2 + 0.4 million km2 as the average difference with the NSIDC month average.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 06, 2017, 03:00:01 PM »
It's getting a bit chilly up there in the high Arctic?

39
My guess is 4.1 million km2, simply as a result of playing the percentage game (see table below). The underlying assumption is that this is turning out to be a very average year for total extent loss, though fascinating in many other ways.



40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 06, 2017, 01:53:30 PM »
Greenland melting season starts its decline?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: August 05, 2017, 02:41:51 PM »
Stupid questions that have nothing to do with Arctic Sea Ice.

I am currently an ASIF citizen. I like being a citizen.
But if I keep on posting I will become "middle class".

Will that make me a Trump supporter ?
If I delete a load of my old posts will that keep me as a citizen? (some of those early posts are embarassingly full of ignorance).



43
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 05, 2017, 02:05:15 PM »
Re Fires.

Ages ago I read an article about Greenland farming and the consequence of retreating ice on the periphery. It seems that the downside for existing farmland is that as the ice retreats the pastureland is drying out, less summer precipitation - don't ask me for the meteorological science that explains that.

Hence more chance of grass fires?

44
For now I'll stick with season-long, low guess of 1.75-2.25. That's been my story, so may as well stick with it until just prior to close of poll. 😜

Anchoring yourself to a previous decision is a bit of a cognitive trap, imho. The only way to improve our decisions and guesses is to review old judgements when we gain the light of new evidence.
In the case of no new evidence presented I'm sticking to my vote.
EVIDENCE::-
To achieve a low of 2.25 million km2 requires extent loss in the remaining 40 days or so of the melt season of 3.8 million km2. The 10 year average was 1.9 million and the 2012 figure was 2.6 million.

45
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 05, 2017, 12:45:03 PM »
If Extent Gain from now to maximum is at the average of the last 10 years, Antarctic sea ice extent will max out at around 17.8 million km2, some 0.2 million below the 2002 maximum ((2002 melt then became far less than the average.),0.7 million less than 2016.

There is therefore a good chance 2107 maximum will be lowest in the satellite record. The table below shows how little difference there has been in total melt over the last 10 years.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Year-round ice-free Arctic
« on: August 04, 2017, 03:44:50 PM »
Thinking it is a pity that this thread is entitled "Year-round ice-free Arctic". Probably because I think a lot about how it will go from a) now and b)year-round ice-free Arctic.

Will it be a case of a gradually extending blue ocean period or a case of last year's winter being repeated and an accelerating winter ice loss ?

Herewith where we are on volume loss from the PIOMAS site. Linear or what?

47
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland ice sheet retreat
« on: August 04, 2017, 03:25:13 PM »
NASA GRACE analysis from 2002 shows almost linear Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss trend. When will AGW accelerate the loss ?

48
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 04, 2017, 03:20:57 PM »

...even though your graphs are very useful i do not think they are suitable for daily usage when it comes to the value of the information they are providing. but that's only for efficiency-apostles like me ....

I just post what is happening in the current season.
The Greenland Ice Retreat thread is where one may discuss the long-term?

(One day I will understand Neven's perfectly understandable instructions on how to do links. Must be a mental block).

<Click 'modify' in the top right of this comment, and you can see how I changed your text to have the link appear within 'Greenland Ice Retreat thread; N.>

Meanwhile - the recent melting fades away. Greenland Net Mass Gain in 2017 for sure ?





49
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 04, 2017, 02:52:37 PM »
With a drop of just 8k km2 as opposed to an average increase of around 70k km2, the wrong way figure over the last 4 days is nearly 500,000 km2 or one week's expected freeze.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Year-round ice-free Arctic
« on: August 04, 2017, 12:31:59 PM »
Hullo Bill,

Volume versus extent.

I have highlighted a quote from that paper that you quoted

"We have found that in complex climate models the transition from a seasonally ice-covered Arctic to an ocean without any sea ice year-round occurs faster than the loss of summer sea ice under the same rate of warming. We attribute this effect to the seasonal asymmetry in the ice-thickness distribution. Whereas summer sea ice is too heterogeneous for large-scale rapid shifts in sea ice area to occur over a few years, Arctic winter sea ice is spread out more homogeneously. As long as the winters are cold enough, a thin and relatively homogeneous ice cover still forms each year."

There is the fact that while summer minimum volume is decreasing at about 20% per decade, extent is reducing at about 12.5% per decade. In 2017 volume loss in spring early summer was extreme while extent loss lagged. Is the above highlighted quote the explanation (or part of it) ?

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