Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - gerontocrat

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 7
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 27, 2017, 10:38:47 PM »
What are your guesses? Here i put my very simple idea about how the 2017 minimum might look like by the middle of September:
Trouble is this years melt will probably continue well past mid September.
Why should this year's melt be prolonged? What am I missing ?

2
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: June 27, 2017, 08:01:42 PM »
The negative anomaly is entirely related to West Antarctica. Will be interesting to see if the sea ice will catch up with other years later this season.
In a month or two those gentle curves on the graph go all wobbly until melt sets in again. Maybe difficult to see any real trend until that melt gets going?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 27, 2017, 04:04:28 PM »
Did you mean: "2012 melt from now to minimum was 17 % greater than the 10 year average"?  ;D

Thanks Neven.
I certainly did. Thanks again for the modify button. Definitely time I put my pen away. The little grey cells between the ears have turned to mush.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 27, 2017, 03:33:11 PM »
Did you mean "... or even a 2012 result look remote"?

I expect 2012 was on the order of 150% of the best previous year on this date, but I would never predict it happening again in any particular year.
Thanks, Tor. (also thanks to Neven for the modify button)
Correction  made.

2012 melt from now to minimum was 17 % greater than the 10 year average.
2007 melt from now to minimum was 10 % greater than the 10 year average.

No other year came close, not in the previous 10 years or any year in the satellite record.

So I am still expecting the slow-motion train wreck to continue. Given my age, it could be a close run thing as to whether I see the Blue Ocean Event.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 27, 2017, 03:20:34 PM »
The Jaxa extent data and a simple arithmetic projection (based on previous 10 year average melting) says the prospects for a new record low are diminishing rapidly, and 1 million km2 is beyond reason. Also the JAXA sea ice thickness image for June 26 one year ago looks more favourable for melting than this year's image.

However, Jaxa AMSR2 volume is dropping like a stone. I think I will put my brain and pen into pause mode until PIOMAS for June comes out next week.




7
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: June 27, 2017, 03:02:18 PM »
Antarctic Sea Ice Extent remains lowest in satellite record (Jaxa and NSIDC). Low daily increases in extent seem once again to be mostly due to strong sea ice drift parallel to coast and onshore.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 27, 2017, 02:42:25 PM »
Some more boring numbers based on JAXA data. 5 days of somewhat modest melt has reduced the arithmetic projections of the 2017 minimum somewhat, as the little table below shows. Melt required is from June 26 to minmum.

 As at June 26             Melt required    % of 2007/2016 avge      Resulting Minimum
 For 2016 Result            5,392,500             101.3%                             4,017,264
 For 2012 Result            6,232,309             117.0%                             3,177,455
 For 2007 Result            5,344,025             100.4%                             4,065,739
 Avge 2007-2016 melt     5,325,075             100.0%                             4,084,689
For 1 million km2      8,409,764             157.9%                             1,000,000


With about 80 days of the melting season left, of which about 10 are usually of minimal melting, the possibility of 1 million km2 or even a 2012 result look remote. However, it still looks as if an awful lot of ice is just waiting to die.



9
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: June 26, 2017, 02:43:35 PM »
For some years in my simplistic analyses I have thought that it would be when big impacts on winter ice happened that a tipping point could happen. I don't  think it will be this year. But if winter 17-18 replicates last winter and the ice-cap enters winter in an already enfeebled state....

It is just a case of when, not if.

10
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: June 26, 2017, 01:48:21 PM »
Hullo "devil floe". (Verdade ?)
Your posts have convinced me to rely on the DMI analysis, and especially on the progression of the smb.
Muchas gracias for the explanations.

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: June 26, 2017, 11:20:59 AM »
The conclusion seems to be that any statement regarding Greenland melting has to have a great big caveat attached ? What a shame.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: June 25, 2017, 03:19:09 PM »
GREENLAND MELTING : NSIDC and DMI
I look at two sites on Greenland melting:-
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/,
and
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

The two graphs of melting were similar in May, but now show entirely different assessments. I have read the notes on what the data is and how it is collected and analysed, and cannot see any reason for such a profound difference to emerge.
I have recently been relying on the Denmark Meteorological Institute site as there is a lot more insight on it. But is this wise? Anybody any idea on what is going on? Je suis confus, embrouillé, désorienté.

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: June 24, 2017, 03:26:44 PM »
The difference between the NSIDC Greenland Today Melting Graph and the DMI Greenland Melting Graph continues to increase.


14
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 23, 2017, 04:23:58 PM »
HANS ISLAND:-
Totally off-topic, but will the Guv'nor kill a poem? This is a poem by Kay Kendall (January 1885) mocking Darwin's Origin of Species. I could not resist it.

The Lay of the Trilobite
A mountain’s giddy height I sought,
Because I could not find
Sufficient vague and mighty thought
To fill my mighty mind;
And as I wandered ill at ease,
There chanced upon my sight
A native of Silurian seas,
An ancient Trilobite.

So calm, so peacefully he lay,
I watched him even with tears:
I thought of Monads far away
In the forgotten years.
How wonderful it seemed and right,
The providential plan,
That he should be a Trilobite,
And I should be a Man!

And then, quite natural and free
Out of his rocky bed,
That Trilobite he spoke to me
And this is what he said:
‘I don’t know how the thing was done,
Although I cannot doubt it;
But Huxley – he if anyone
Can tell you all about it;

‘How all your faiths are ghosts and dreams,
How in the silent sea
Your ancestors were Monotremes –
Whatever these may be;
How you evolved your shining lights
Of wisdom and perfection
From Jelly-Fish and Trilobites
By Natural Selection.

‘You’ve Kant to make your brains go round,
Hegel you have to clear them,
You’ve Mr Browning to confound,
And Mr Punch to cheer them!
The native of an alien land
You call a man and brother,
And greet with hymn-book in one hand
And pistol in the other!

‘You’ve Politics to make you fight
As if you were possessed:
You’ve cannon and you’ve dynamite
To give the nations rest:
The side that makes the loudest din
Is surest to be right,
And oh, a pretty fix you’re in!’
Remarked the Trilobite.

‘But gentle, stupid, free from woe
I lived among my nation,
I didn’t care – I didn’t know
That I was a Crustacean.*
I didn’t grumble, didn’t steal,
I never took to rhyme:
Salt water was my frugal meal,
And carbonate of lime.’

Reluctantly I turned away,
No other word he said;
An ancient Trilobite, he lay
Within his rocky bed.
I did not answer him, for that
Would have annoyed my pride:
I merely bowed, and raised my hat,
But in my heart I cried: –

‘I wish our brains were not so good,
I wish our skulls were thicker,
I wish that Evolution could
Have stopped a little quicker;
For oh, it was a happy plight,
Of liberty and ease,
To be a simple Trilobite
In the Silurian seas!’

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 23, 2017, 04:10:33 PM »
NIGHT AND DAY TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS.
Since I am too dumb and not up to understanding the science in all the weather projections, I have to rely on the 5 day outlooks from cci-reanalyzer. But I thought I would see what the 5 day min and max temperature  images looked like, and assume that most of the difference in such a few days would be from night and day. The simplistic conclusion seems to be that where the minimum difference between max and min temperatures is the Arctic Ocean. Given that it is the high Arctic and close to the summer solstice, and over the moderating influence of water and ice, this seems logical.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 23, 2017, 01:47:23 PM »
I was wondering if the Jaxa sea ice thickness images over the last few days have been showing the effect of winds in the CAB, especially the almost circular striations. If so, does that also indicate the poor state of the ice in both thickness and compaction?


17
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 22, 2017, 10:04:00 PM »
Being a mixture of limestone and domolitised limestone, Hans Island will be there for a very long time after there is no ice left to wear it away. But it was nice to see that some of the geology I learnt 50 years ago is still lurking in forgotten areas of the cerebrum.

18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 22, 2017, 08:49:39 PM »
From the first paragraph of the above referenced Geo. Survey of Denmark paper:
... Rising less than 170 m above normally ice-infested waters, the 1.25 km2 island is physiographically far overshadowed by nearby Franklin Ø (Fig. 1).


Referencing "Government of Canada, (1985) Sailing Directions, Arctic Canada, Vol. 2, Ottawa: Canadian Hydrographic Service", this Canada's Unresolved maritime Boundaries paper) reports:
Hans Island (80° 49’N, 66° 28’W) is described as being sandy in colour with a cliff at its south end of about 150m in elevation.
  This would be the height of the cliff.

Finally, from Hans Island: Meteorological Data From an International Borderline:
Hans Island (80º49’35’N, 66º27’35’W) is a small sandstone landform that occupies an area of about 1.3 square kilometers and is 168 meters in height (Figure 1a).

"Sandstone"  Hmmmm.

Looks more like dolomite to me. That horizontal stratigraphy also reminiscent of periodic deposits of calcium carbonate in shallow warm seas?

19
Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: June 22, 2017, 07:24:41 PM »
cross post:
Hans Island is composed of Silurian aged limestone, per this  1931 map (via Geo. Survey of Denmark)
(Interesting that Petermann Fjord had a different name then.)

Has the limestone gone dolomitic? Memories of breaking my hands and heart breaking up some of it in the Forest of Dean, England.
ps: These old maps are wonderful, made by true Mariner Masters.

20
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: June 22, 2017, 02:54:23 PM »
Would an iceberg float higher in seawater than in freshwater, especially if made of freshwater ?

21
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: June 22, 2017, 02:50:46 PM »
In the last 5 days sea ice extent has increased by an average of 62,000 km2 per day, 45% less than the average increase since April 1.(JAXA data). However, it does seem that much of the difference in daily changes can be attributed to the strength and direction of sea ice drift, in itself a function of the violent weather down there.

Nevertheless sea ice extent in Antarctica according to NSIDC's Charctic is now tied with 2002 as lowest in the satellite record. Extent is nearly 1 million below that of the 1980's. Antarctic Sea Ice extent has been lowest, 2nd lowest and briefly 3rd lowest for some 225 days (since early Nov 2016).
Is this of note?


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 22, 2017, 02:12:08 PM »
A few days of strongish melting makes quite a difference.

On June 1st 2017 JAXA sea ice extent was 733,000 km2 greater than 2016, and average daily melting (from April 1) was 22% less than 2016.
As at 21st June that difference is down to 157,000 km2 and the average daily melting rate (again from April 1 ) is now only 2% less than 2016.

If melting from now to minimum is at the average of the previous 10 years, the 2017 minimum would tie with 2016 as 2nd lowest at 4.02 million km2. This is a significant change from earlier this month when a 5% above average melt would have been required.
However, to be a new record low (i.e. less than 2102) still requires remaining melting to be 15% above the 10 year average.
This is summarised in the little table below:-

 As At June 21       Melt required     As % av      Resulting Minimum
 For 2016 Result     5,711,402    100.0%    4,017,264
 For 2012 Result     6,551,211    114.8%    3,177,455
 For 2007 Result     5,662,927      99.2%    4,065,739
 Average 7-16 melt     5,708,577                4,020,089

The data illustrates how extraordinary the 2012 melting season was. (A similar story can be told on Greenland's melting in 2012).

There are about 85 days of the melting season left, of which perhaps 75 are significant in an average year. Although the Arctic temperatures are not yet at maximum, peak insolation day was yesterday.
If all other things are equal, a 2nd lowest minimum despite not particularly favourable climatic conditions seems eminently possible. However, not all other things are or will be equal. When will the thickness of the ice in the CAB reduce to below the point of no return?



23
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: June 22, 2017, 01:13:47 PM »
Hullo Darvince, Hullo TerryM,

Hope this post makes sense. Suffering from brain-fade.

Quote from http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

"Over the year, it snows more than it melts, but calving of icebergs also adds to the total mass budget of the ice sheet. Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr."

Looking at the graph below it would seem that in an average year surface mass increases by a net amount of 400 gt. Given that Greenland loses around 200 Gt mass per annum, that means in an average year calving is dumping around 600 Gt of ice into the oceans. That is about double the average annual volume loss of arctic sea ice of 300 Gt quoted by PIOMAS. When my brain finally did the arithmetic it was quite a shock.

The graph below shows that the surface mass gain in winter 2016-2017 was somewhat more than 100 gt in excess of the average, and surface mass loss through melting has been very sluggish. It is possible that Greenland's  net mass loss by the end of September will not be 200 gt but maybe zero or even negative (i.e. a net mass gain).



24
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: June 22, 2017, 12:48:21 PM »
A problem:-
Herewith NSIDC's (http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/) graph of greenland melt so far:
And secondly is the DMI version (http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/:-

I thought they were looking at the same event, i.e. surface melting, but the difference is just too great. Has anyone out there the explanation of such divergent views of the same event?

25
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 21, 2017, 09:15:53 PM »
Hans Island is interesting to geologists because it's part of a mountain chain that starts in the Svalbard Islands off Norway, runs through Greenland, and pokes out again in Ellesmere Island.Apr 9, 2004
Greenland, Canada squabbling over pet rock - Nunatsiaq News
www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/archives/40409/news/nunavut/40409_08.html

That is:  it is solid rock.


Given its position obstructing traffic on the Nares Strait Lincoln Sea Ice Motorway (Autostrada, Freeway) is there any data regarding its diminuition in size due to frequent collisions with self-driving lumps of ice ?

26
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 21, 2017, 09:00:33 PM »
Is Hans Island a lump of solid rock or is it just a heap of accumulated glacial debris ?

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 21, 2017, 08:55:42 PM »
I was joking gerontocrat.  I was poking fun at the precision of the JAXA reporting in spite of the obvious lack of accuracy.
I tbought as much. But worth talking about. Statistical significance and all that stuff. But Jaxa and NSIDC just tell us the result of the calculation. Perhaps they need to highlight the standard error for us dumbos.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 21, 2017, 07:07:45 PM »
JAXA reports to the nearest 1 km, so that's the error right?  ::)
Absolutely not. People like Jim Hunt, Wipneus, Neven et al can give you a good idea. Unlikeme, they know what tbey are doing. But if there is error in a particular series produced by a consistent set of instruments, changes over time are likely to be pretty close - +/-50km2 on extent?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: June 21, 2017, 06:57:24 PM »
Anybody any ideas on what to do when NSIDC's record of arctic sea ice stops ?
This now seems inevitable sooner rather than later now we know the last remaining satellite on earth has been sent to the junkyard by Congress and no 18 up there is already operating beyond its design life.

30
The congressman in charge of the committee is a *!@^### moron.  He had the satellite destroyed and gloated about it after it was demolished. The dumb jerk is from Alabama.

Guess what else these satellite do. They can see into the interior structure of tropical storms and hurricanes. They provide key information for predicting hurricane intensification. This fool represents people in hurricane alley.
The aforesaid moron from Alabama still has the Farmers Almanac, Nostrodamus and the Book of Revelations with which to predict the weather. So everything is OK, is it not?

31
Science / Re: Global Forest Watch
« on: June 19, 2017, 07:11:40 PM »
Logging is a rough business. Back in 1990 I wrote a report on some loging proposals for a Government. I was told that failure to change the recommendations would be fatal. Fortunately some Vietnam Vet drinking buddies showed the bad guys that their illegal weapons were bigger than the bad guy's illegal weapons.

For some time those drinking buddies had a great line of credit at our watering hole. It is as dangerous today as then.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 19, 2017, 02:09:55 PM »
Weather-forecast.com  forecasts strong southerly winds from the N. Pacific through the Bering Strait into the CAB developing over the next few days (in addition to the cyclones close to the pole). Will the cyclones also shove a lot of ice in the general direction of the Fram ?

33
The argument between USAF and  a committee of Congress has been going on for years. I believe that NASA that launches them had one satellite of the series left, (no #20) in cold storage costing 50 million bucks per annum. It would have cost something over 100 million to launch it. Congress would not authorise it. I do not know if it has been sent to the junkyard (building it cost circa 500 million?).

This is not the USA that built the world's greatest military machine from nothing in 2 years flat from Dec 1941 to end '43.

34
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: June 17, 2017, 06:49:35 PM »
Hullo wipneus,
I looked at NSIDC to find Antarctic sea ice spreadsheets and only found Arctic. Alcohol may have been involved. It is all because in my head there are 3 things of which we humans are most ignorant of re planet earth of which no #1 is the Antarctic. Imagine I am a bloodhound, give me a rag to scent and I will be on the hunt.

Regards,

Gerontocrat.



35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 17, 2017, 06:21:42 PM »
As an observer, not a climate scientist, I can only comment on the data that shows what has been, what is and what with reasonable confidence can be expected to happen (as far as weather outlook, that is looking up to 5 days ahead in summer?)..

- Jaxa AMSR2 volume has not declined in June,
- Denmark's polar portal shows arctic sea ice volume in decline but now greater than 2016 (http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent),
- The DMI 80+N graph shows temperature above zero celsius but about a degree below average, (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php),
- CCI-reanalyzer has shown a temperature anomaly for the Arctic slightly below zero for the last few days and for the next few days slightly positive.

However,
- CCI-reanalyzer shows strong sea temperature anomalies in the far north Atlantic and the pacific mouth of the CAB,
- CCI-reanalyzer also shows that summer has arrived in the CAB with average temperatures at and above zero for most of the CAB and surrounding Arctic,
- decline in sea ice extent (Jaxa) in June means that a second lowest minimum is possible with melt from now to minimum at just above the previous 10 year average.

With just 3 months of the melting season remaining and with no signs of significant melt-accelerating conditions , a record low is looking far less possible.


it's really easy to find graphs and data that fits ones intended statement. i prefer to stick to the more reliable sources and  to the truth (no sign of signifianct melt etc is not true) and to the laws of physics that cannot be fooled with photoshopped images and cherry picked statistics. energy is there, thickness and volume is low. that alone is enough to worry because the total amount of ice incicates the amount of energy needed to get rid of it which, obviously, is much less than ever before and it will have an impact.

i did not pay attention to other posts from you but there are well know sites where that post would be welcome and fit into the general pattern, just sayin'

As you may or may not have noticed, I said that despite a coolish arctic so far, a second lowest minimum is eminently possible. Such a result when melting conditions are not that favourable would be very significant.
It is obvious as I have posted many times, that volume reduction cannot exceed extent reduction indefinitely. I merely suggest that the massive extent reduction that must happen is not going to happen this year. This is a surprise after tbe winter events.

ps : I do not change my data sources according to the result I seek to achieve. This has pissed off many of my employers.I am not competent to judge the reliability of this data, except that it is produced by dedicated climate science professionals.
pps: Goodbye.



36
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 17, 2017, 01:26:48 PM »
What this thread (and Russiagate) seem to do is concentrate on the Trump and not on the consequences of having a dysfunctional or non-functioning Presidency and an ineffective Congress. If it was the Russkies what did it (and Trump's cavalier attitude to conducting business) their success is continuing and probably greater than expected. The President, Congress, the media and the public (as evidenced by these these threads) are trapped in the continuing stream of who did what and when while Government is not governing.

Meanwhile:-
- The Government of California has made an agreement directly with the Government of Germany (on climate stuff), sidelining the Federal Government,
- How many states, cities, (and even individuals such as Michael Bloomberg) are making legal agreements with the UN ?
- Angela Merkel went to Argentina to sew up the EU Trade Agreement with Mercosur last week (will be signed by the end of the year),
- China has made an agreement to work with the EU to out-perform the Paris Accord targets. (We are talking gigawatts and gigabucks of deals coming down the road),
- The USA has no clear idea on what to do about North Korea..... the list is endless.

Belguim was without a Government for over a year not so long ago. No-one noticed. The world will notice if those in the USA who need to get a grip on governing do not.

37
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: June 17, 2017, 01:01:24 PM »
Greenland melt has woken up. It will be interesting to see how much of the unusually high increase in surface mass over the 2016-2017 winter will melt away in the next three months or so.


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 17, 2017, 12:50:44 PM »
As an observer, not a climate scientist, I can only comment on the data that shows what has been, what is and what with reasonable confidence can be expected to happen (as far as weather outlook, that is looking up to 5 days ahead in summer?)..

- Jaxa AMSR2 volume has not declined in June,
- Denmark's polar portal shows arctic sea ice volume in decline but now greater than 2016 (http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent),
- The DMI 80+N graph shows temperature above zero celsius but about a degree below average, (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php),
- CCI-reanalyzer has shown a temperature anomaly for the Arctic slightly below zero for the last few days and for the next few days slightly positive.

However,
- CCI-reanalyzer shows strong sea temperature anomalies in the far north Atlantic and the pacific mouth of the CAB,
- CCI-reanalyzer also shows that summer has arrived in the CAB with average temperatures at and above zero for most of the CAB and surrounding Arctic,
- decline in sea ice extent (Jaxa) in June means that a second lowest minimum is possible with melt from now to minimum at just above the previous 10 year average.

With just 3 months of the melting season remaining and with no signs of significant melt-accelerating conditions , a record low is looking far less possible.





39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 17, 2017, 12:24:54 PM »
Some more boring numbers (derived from Jaxa). I look at previous years' melt from the latest daily extent to minimum and the average for the last 10 years. The increase in June melt over the last week or two has made a 2nd lowest minimum for 2017 seem much more possible per the table below.

 As At June 16     Melt required     As % of 2007/2016 average
 For 2016 Result     6,089,458    100.7%
 For 2012 Result     6,929,267    114.6%
 For 2007 Result     6,040,983    99.9%

However, there is little change in the large additional percentage melt required for a lower than 2012 minimum. There are now just 90 days melting season remaining of which one would expect only 80 to be significant.


40
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: June 17, 2017, 12:13:04 PM »
Antarctic sea ice extent still seems to be third lowest (from Charctic), (and from Jaxa) 0.7 million km2 (5.5%) below the 1980's average, and 2 million km2 (14% 19 days ) below 2014 (maximum year).

So no real change in this persistent low extent. But is it the case of the dog that did not bark? One can do nowt but wait.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 13, 2017, 04:54:56 PM »
Hullo Rubikscube.
You are not happy about longer-term weather forecasts. Pity the UK public. The  Murdoch And other yellow press tabloids are predicting 3 months of scorching weather. Source ? A plonker called James Madden  who runs a man-and-dog outfit called Exacta Weather. Why do the yellow press throw money at him ? Because he is a denier claiming the little ice age is upon us - Maunder minimum, solar activity etc.

Off-topic ? Yes. but one must expect a load of denier crap if there is no record low this year. Last gasp of Murcoch and his best mates the Kochs ?

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 13, 2017, 11:00:04 AM »
DavidR, are you saying that 2017 lost 112K of extent today, or that 2012 lost that amount on this date?  If 2017, where are you finding that info. before Espen posts it?  thanks
Jaxa data is dead easy to download and view, even on a mobile. 117 thousand km2 is yesterday.

"What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours"
" One swallow does not make a summer"

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 12, 2017, 10:20:11 PM »
In a time of unprecedented rapid climate change,  is it not a natural consequence that longer-term forecasts become less reliable ?  Hence I am ignoring anything beyond 5 days when looking at the current melting season

44
In the total certainty that I shall be shot down in flames I am going for 4.2 million km2. Pourquoi ?
The June cliff, like the British summer, is being promised a few days down the line but keeps on not happening. So I have ignored the extraordinary melt from now to minimum that occurred in 2007 and 2012. So for 2017,I end up with a fairly ordinary melting season, but does reflect that the rate of melt is increasing over the years.

However, herewith a quick and crude "reductio ad absurdum".
NSIDC says that September extent has reduced by about 13 percent per decade. PIOMAS reckon September volume has decreased by about 20 percent per decade.

What if this continued for 50 years from 1979?
Volume at zero.
Extent still at 35 % of 1979.
Absurd.

At some point something has gotta give. I just don't think it is this year.


45
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: June 10, 2017, 09:12:55 PM »
The point I was trying to make is that it is the difference in surface mass that matters. As of today mass is constant or rising from an already unusual high. This I would suggest is of interest.

46
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: June 10, 2017, 02:15:54 PM »
And the lack of sea ice in West Antarctica is equally impressive!

Antarctic sea ice extent (Charctic image) seems to be still 3rd lowest (just). But (Jaxa data) only 0.5 million km2 less than the 1980's average compared with a max of 1.4 million km2 earlier in the year.
This difference is almost entirely confined to West Antarctica.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 10, 2017, 02:04:46 PM »
Jaxa sea ice thickness image has and is showing a big lump of very thick ice at the pacific end of the CAB. From whence it came?

48
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: June 10, 2017, 01:36:09 PM »
I have just read DMI's webpage re the Greenland melt properly for the first time. (http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/).

As usual I just looked at the melt graph - melt going up again.
Then I looked at the surface mass budget graph - going up. A contradiction?
Then I read properly and saw todayssmb graph. A big increase in surface mass on the east coast.

Would I be right in thinking that perhaps a significant event is in progress in Greenland?



49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 08, 2017, 04:39:23 PM »
Some more boring (mostly JAXA and believed to be reliable) numbers.

If the melt from now (June 8th) to minimum continues at the average of the last 10 years, minimum would be 4.25 million km2.

To become the 2nd lowest minimum, i.e. just over 4 million km2, remaining melt would have to be about 3.2% greater than that 10 year average.

To become lowest, i.e. just under 3.2 million km2, remaining melt would have to be about 16% greater than that 10 year average.

If from now to minimum remaining melt repeated the 2012 outlier, minimum would be about 2.95 million km2. But this would require remaining melt to be circa 20 % greater than the previous 10 years average.

These figures have barely changed over the last 3 weeks. There are about 100 melting days at most  remaining, of which at least 10 one would expect to be low.

In the next few days I see no major weather changes (from cci-reanalyzer) to kick melting into high gear. Today’s Arctic temperature anomaly is just + 0.11  degrees Celsius. The 5 day forecast anomaly is a very pale pink for the CAB.  DMI 80+N is just below average. Maximum insolation is only 2 weeks away. Weather-forecast.com  forecasts do show a lot of clear skies especially  on the Pacific half of the CAB but no major weather systems.

In contrast the average thickness graph is truly scary, the images all say the ice-cap is a load of rubble.

Only a relatively small increase over the average melt  (which is the trend throughout the satellite record) would make 2017 second lowest.  Given a coolish and quiet arctic summer this would be very significant, perhaps more so than a record low due to extreme weather anomalies.

I expect this post to be immediately followed by appearance of the June cliff. As a numbers man, I can only wait for the numbers.

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: June 08, 2017, 02:54:03 PM »
For an explanation, try
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/crude-oil-s-biggest-tumble-since-march-shown-in-three-charts

The Bloomberg one month WTI chart below shows why short-term movements in oil prices not a good guide to the long-term. The oil states and oil markets are too unstable.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 7