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Messages - Hyperion

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1
All predictions are stabs in the dark. The extremely complex system of geobioatmophysic feedback dynamics we enjoy, is well beyond our current level of scientific understanding. Due to no precedents, for tens of millions of years at least, of such explosively growing greenhouse burden added to cataclysmic biosphere degradation as we have tested this system with, we can expect no less than emphatic and unpleasant rebound behaviour. Though in saying that, I should point out that the chronological period for the response is, from what we do know, anything from days to megayears.
At present however. Large effects are in the house. FE. the meeting of warm salty tropical waters and fresher arctic is no longer a extra arctic basin phenomena. This is now a prime driver of AMOC. as the interface is well established beyond the edge of the continental shelf now, and certainly of far larger and growing length, frictional forces of cooled deep return currents on the shelfs are gone. but  the cooling of high salinity atlantic incoming waters enhanced along the extended front. Creating a subduction sheetcurrent thousands of km long that is only enhanced by extreme weather and other perturbations. And thus we are stuck now with seemingly unavoidable NAD acceleration and consequences for what future is pertinent to the lifespan of the flesh bags we inhabit.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 15, 2017, 10:30:22 AM »
Silly Lad!  Common misconception that overpopulation is the problem.

When you take a honest rational look. The worlds richest 50 people own 50% of the resources and are responsible for over 90% of the environmental destruction. The poorest 50% of the worlds population have a net positive effect on the Biodiversity and total Biomass around them. As do any species acting as a responsible member of Gaia's community of species.

If you want to cull population. 50 individuals is plenty. The world actually needs a lot more POOR people if we gonna save it.

Hopefully Trumps wall will be built in time for it to trap the rich under a new ice sheet. We don't want them to get to mexico and ruin the interspecies ecological harmony there and further south.


With respect Hyperion, this comment is nonsense.  Even readers of the Stupid Questions topic deserve better.  Can you offer any rational support for the assertions above (bold added), all of which register as false.

Creativity and technology, driven by wealth, power, and possibly greed on one hand.  7 or 70 billion subsistence farmers on the other hand.  Which one portends a better outcome?

Here's an interesting look at how the 'poor' people of Easter Island may have managed their ecology.  No such alternate views afaik for how the Anasazi used up their critical Juniper supply, and other ecological disasters of pre-modern societies as detailed in the referenced Jared Diamond book.

http://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2013/12/09/249728994/what-happened-on-easter-island-a-new-even-scarier-scenario

What happened on easter island is well known. The Island was a lush subtropical food forest in the mid 1700s. Then the invading cultural group known as the "short ears", an invasion originating in mongolia, burnt it to the ground in the process of exterminating the " long ears" the megalithic culture. Tall red haired green eyed chaps. Same thing happened in New Zealand.
If you want an example of large scale results from intelligent gardening by dense populations. Look at the Amazon. Lined by cities of fifty plus thousand people. Until the European explorers decimated the Americas with disease in the early 1500s. Consider also those highly intelligent oceanic farmers the whales. Their loss has reduced the life in Antarctic waters alone by 90%. And without their migratory fertiliser spreading, and the return of nutrients to the surface by toothed whales. Probably 90% of the life in the rest of the oceans too. "Subsistence farming" is a derogatory slur. The rise of monocultural factory farming has turned 90% of terrestrial life into co2. From 1000 tons per hectare to ten. Its ecocide. And boots on the ground are needed to fix it.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: May 14, 2017, 08:50:58 PM »
For more terms you can refer to NSIDC's Glossary. Or peruse the Global Croysphere ???
::)

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 13, 2017, 11:48:48 PM »

Lately I've been thinking that the best way to avoid cataclysmic global warming would be to cull a majority of the human population.

Now, the best way to do that would be a nuclear war.

Maybe Trump does care about Global Warming after all!
And that, is what we used to call, throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Silly Lad!  Common misconception that overpopulation is the problem.

When you take a honest rational look. The worlds richest 50 people own 50% of the resources and are responsible for over 90% of the environmental destruction. The poorest 50% of the worlds population have a net positive effect on the Biodiversity and total Biomass around them. As do any species acting as a responsible member of Gaia's community of species.

If you want to cull population. 50 individuals is plenty. The world actually needs a lot more POOR people if we gonna save it.

Hopefully Trumps wall will be built in time for it to trap the rich under a new ice sheet. We don't want them to get to mexico and ruin the interspecies ecological harmony there and further south.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 12, 2017, 02:20:29 AM »
An attempt to track the incoming atmospheric moisture and energy transport in the Pacific quadrant by animating 36hrs to date while climbing through the altitude layers.
- We see the sea level pressure and surface level winds to start.
 - Then climb up through 1000,850,700,500,250 in three hour increments, with relative humidity and wind.
- Then close with only winds at 250 and 70 hpa 12 and 18km altitudes to better observe the interconnection of wind flows across the historic tropopause.
- And a couple of temperature at 70hpa, showing that the hottest place in the world is the nth pole, and the warmest the equator. The molecules up there are moving pretty fast compared to the ones you are breathing. Lots of downwelling longwave.

pity it seems too big. trying edited down version...
nope. Ok smaller. With MSLP and temps at 18km separate.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 10, 2017, 07:51:58 PM »
Algal growth on and in underside of floes is a very large effect that will very likely kick like a mule this year. They bloom and grow through the porous ice when its under 2.5m and in adition to absorbing more heat through albedo their metabolic heat and antifreeze compounds they produce can cause bottom melt at -10c air temps. The fragmented pack and mobility will have given them a big head start. May be  significantly more nutrient spread into the cab too.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 09, 2017, 10:23:33 PM »
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/04/07/0000Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/stereographic=49.67,76.71,198/loc=-19.495,63.053

....Folks. Full tropospheric mixing is in the house. .


Also, looking down at the Pole at the 10 hpa level a large hexagonal shaped pattern is forming. Is that something to concerned about?
Man. The infinite hypothesis theorem is in control. The more you know the more you know you don't know. At 10hpa we have a solidly established pattern for several months now of a spiral of air peeling back off the faster than planetry rotation equatorial belt and spiraling into the nth pole where it it descendes to fuel these uberpressure high pressure systems that keep emerging. But there is a tendancy towards increasing complexity. And reducing relative humidity at equatorial lattitudes and increasing polar in recent years. And that potentiates accelerated polar gw amplification.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 09, 2017, 07:49:15 PM »
The 250hpa jet activity has been looking interesting to put it mildly. There's a mutant wave 8ish. Tangled from Pole to pole with about fifty mixing vortexes embedded like the knots in Birdseye maple.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=off/patterson=-119.27,0.42,105/loc=-92.752,-10.117
 Folks. Full tropospheric mixing is in the house. We've even had cyclone Donna team up with the seas of New Calidonia and Columbia to put 100% humidity over Greenland at 6 to twelve km altitude. And the stratosphere is looking interesting with several weather systems extending to over 20 km altitude, eg low in the nth Atlantic.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 07, 2017, 03:52:19 AM »
If I am reading the model chart you linked correctly it is showing salinity in the Beaufort at 5 meters between 32 and 34.7  The 50 meter chart also seems far too saline.
This is again a case of choosing between a well tested and calibrated data base built with years of temperature and salinity readings from buoys and a model based upon I do not know what.

ps  This should be posted on another thread because Fram Export isn't where it belongs.

Agreed Bruce. My experience of Austrians is if you suggest anything outside the neat boxes they are packaging everything in, a glazed look, stare into space, and "THIS IS NOT CORRECT!" response ensues  ::) . So bottom up reduction-ism is the order of the day. A holistic systems approach might deserve its own thread also.  ;)



https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2021.0.html

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This is known to be of utmost importance. If the lower salinity lens on the surface is mixed away or exported, then there is much too much thermal energy in the Atlantic and Pacific warmer, saltier layers beneath for the central Arctic Basin to refreeze in winter. Data is scarce due to only one drift buoy still active this year.

Woods ITP97 has for nearly 500 days been transiting from near Bering towards the CAA across some of the deepest parts of the basin.



The Temperature and Salinity plots show some interesting incontinuities that seem to suggest to me areas of surface/depth mixing, where the Halocline has ruptured.



Perhaps even better illustrated by the Dissolved Oxygen plot.



The Copernicus salinity models are obviously not as fine a resolution as what the Buoys are measuring. The 5m Salinity fronts actually do not appear to have changed much 2012-2017. But the Thickness of the surface mixed zone appears to be increasing throughout the basin.
hope these animate if you click them. 1 colour bar is 25m on the Thickness plot so we have the CAB gone from less than 25m surface mixed layer to up around 75m in five years it seems:



11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 05, 2017, 11:38:51 PM »
Gosh. Thanks for hauling this up Romett. That salinity product is interesting. Seems the halocline has advanced significantly in 11 months. Well past the continental shelf edge at 5m depth. Almost to Bering strait at 50m. That long front where its flaming the ice will be cooling the incoming salty stuff. Subducting it. Imho this could be accelerating the amoc and setting up big incoming current momentum. Preparing it to flood the whole basin come sept. The Halocline looks in serious danger.


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 05, 2017, 07:44:59 PM »
<snip; Enough too long comments about CH4, Hadley cells and Sahara. Think about the other readers, please, and go to the appropriate threads; N.>

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 05, 2017, 07:09:24 PM »
Looks like a fog bank. Is it disintegrating on that side and producing fog as the melting rubble cools the air? Lets keep an eye on it.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 05, 2017, 04:35:06 PM »
I am curious as gk whether these export figures include stuff melting along the extensive Atlantic front. Not technically "exported" but killed before exiting the basin. This seems high this year.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 05, 2017, 04:27:53 PM »
I think he means wide.  ::) if its 25m thick its a dang big piece of shelf. Not good either.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 05, 2017, 04:22:54 PM »
Just to clarify the dynamics of esas and other shelf methane releases in the arctic while we are going there. Release to air is maximum in Autumn and winter because oxygen levels in the water become depleted. The prolific Algae blooms produce enough to break a lot of it down late spring and summer before riverine doc influx and die offs of biota combine in Autumn along with the methane to deplete dissolved oxygen again. These fluxes do not have to rise much at all for the whole basin to anoxify within a couple of decades and this to start spreading to nth Atlantic and pacific. The majority of esas release is happening over 1000 km offshore all along the deep end of the slope and is poorly quantified. Shaks could not get either permission or funding to get out there in her earlier studies. So they were mainly on the inshore hotspots eg lena delta where warm river water and extensive submerged thermokarst lake fields have uncorked the beast. Noone should pay attention to fossil funded slowists like Archer. His infinate unperforated slab layercake one dimensional thermal conduction analysis is infamous as an absurdity of unreality and misdirection. That beast is dangerous.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 04, 2017, 10:27:16 PM »
Not sure which thread to post this in, but is this unusual? Is it relevant to Arctic?
Today's jet stream:
https://media.giphy.com/media/xUPGcoh39ZKjSAlIju/giphy.gif




(from: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-62.81,40.95,555 )
Unusual? Seems less and less so all the time. That equatorial east to west flow is symptomatic of strong pile to equator flows at high altitude. What seems to be happening of late is big low level flows going from one hemisphere to another. A few weeks ago when cyclone cook was in the house the big high in th arctic coupled up and from Alaska to Antarctica the whole Pacific basin lower level airmass got drawn. Some seemed to return at the top of the troposphere, but massive deep southern ocean lows seem to be punching a hole in the roof of the night and returning it via the stratosphere. Generating a massive trade winds belt at 10 hpa 30+ km altitude. The flows reversed about a week ago with up to 1056hpa in a massive high over Antarctica and low pressure predominant in the Arctic. Now with a few cyclones popping up in the sth pacific and pressure buildin Gain in the arctic the pendulum appears to be swinging. With the absolute ratsnest the jets have become perhaps we shouldnt be surprised that cyclones at 20 degrees sthe like the central pacific one get captured by mr ferell so quickly as a jet flow whips up and arond them from the pole. Making them into the dreaded hybrids. Still feeding on tropic moisture dragged in at low level. And polar cold. But I am mouth wide open a this active planetry dual hemisphere single cell pan-atmospheric single cell behaviour. If this becomes more usual my questions are... Will it prove to be an oscillation sloshing one way and the other on a period of a couple of weeks as lately or some other. Potentially setting up big ocean pumping. Or be predominant as a seasonal flow from one hemisphere pole to the other. Sharing heat from the summer with the pole in  the dark. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=temp/winkel3=-166.96,15.64,226/loc=-162.898,-8.084     


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Last year. The Arctic may have made more ice than any year in the past few decades this winter. And it obviously has exported more. Vicious cycle of latent heat release, exporting cold that might have otherwise been chilling a shrinking surface layer.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 02, 2017, 06:33:36 PM »
Hey Hyperion. Don't you mean pedantic? ;)

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 02, 2017, 06:31:31 PM »
That and it has more total exposed surface area for heat to attack it.

No.

To see why, try the following calculation.  The Earthwatch MODIS data source has a resolution of 250m, and so the smallest detectable ice floe from this data source is around that size.

Please estimate for me the total exposed surface area for a 250m x 250m floe. Let's assume it's thick first year ice of ~2m average thickness. Then, identify what proportion of the total surface areas is:

1)  Top face (exposed to Sun)
2)  Bottom face (exposed to water)
3)  Side faces (exposed to a mix of both)

Fragmentation is not relevant to the total exposed surface area of sea ice until the floes are too small to be seen by MODIS. The dynamics we so avidly watch - whether fragmented or not - do not appreciably alter the total surface area of the ice.


Just to be clear, fragmentation does increase the surface area, but because height(1-2m) is so small relative to length and width (thousands of kilometers) the increase in surface area is extremely small for all but the smallest floes.

That is not to say that fragmented ice behaves the same as solid ice, specially regarding waves. Smaller floes are more susceptible to waves and currents.
Yes as I draw attention to in the last animation I posted. Of the laptev. As soon as the pack loosened and jostled a little all the floes quickly lost their corners and rounded off. The debris from this may be too small to see but it is definately increazing melt surface. And It may be paedantic to risk another round of chants about the holy melting enthalpy figures but if litre of salty ice took the same energy to melt as a litre of fresh blue it would melt at zero C. And perhaps more important is that the water temp of the surface layer need not rise for it to melt. And Any briny slime exlosed to the air will take up energy and trnsfer it more effectively into the floe. I also stand by my assertion that wind assisted sublimation can hold temperatures well below zero in the central basin. And salty ice a little below in the periphery. But this does NOT mean melt is not occuring. It means it is. Some of these may only be a percentage point or two. But to be Significant one percent now could be the momentum that makes the difference between 2.5 and blue ocean.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The Fast Transition
« on: April 30, 2017, 04:09:11 PM »
There was a paper linked and a very good graphic of the latest and best atmospheric modelling, back in January I think, perhaps on the freezing season thread, that showed the different atmospheric mechanisms and one scenario, possible even this year - a couple of months Ice free in summer they predicted Atmospheric heat transport to be ten times what we are used to, if memory serves. What it might get to if there is a full blown cyclone canon as Hansen suggests existed at the end of the last interglacial, that produced regular 60+m swells crossing the Atlantic to the Bahamas.

Doing a few numbers on the effect on water heat transport of the atmosphere dynamics we are seeing right now suggests that might be capable of being highly significant in increasing heat input and cold extraction also.

Eg/ I suggested on the melting season thread last week that the Average basin seal level pressure may have dropped by some 20hpa in less than a week causing an average rise in basin sea level of around 20cm. That equates to 2800 cubic km of water incoming from the Pacific and Atlantic.
For this to happen in four days say:
2800 billion cubic m / 96hrs =29166666667 cubic m / hr
/ 3600 seconds per hr = 8.1 million cubic metres per second = 8.1 sverdrups

the AMOC is supposed to be around 15 sverdrups at present.

We saw a big inrush at that time through Bering Strait, but the channel cross sectional area through there is about 40km wide x 0.03 km deep = 1.2 square km = 1.2 million sqm

So for 8.1 million cubic km to have passed through there it would have had to have flowed at 8.1 million/ 1.2m = 6.75 m/s = 24kmph.

clearly it wasn't. And there was persistent high winds sending water and ice out the Atlantic exits at the time also. So quite on the cards that at depth (limited by the Europe-Faroe-Iceland-Greenland rise to not more than 500m depth of course, so warm Atlantic tidal mixed zone water, not bottom water) there was big incoming flows from the Atlantic, and the total inflow could well have been similar in volume to the AMOC, as it was replacing not just the 20cm but the windblown surface outflow additionally.

Now at present in Antarctica we have a high of over 1050hpa in the interior, and nearby large depressions with 940 hpa pressure.
If a scenario should develop with oscillation between basin pressures like those, and VERY powerful winds occurring also, as a result of over 20 C water temperatures flooding into the Basin, and Greenland and large melt-pool in the Nth Atlantic adjacent. Perhaps pressure changes of five times what we are currently seeing, or more, on the time scale of a few days, and very big storm surges, could set up a pumping mechanism with hot in and cold out ocean current transportation capability in the order of 10x what we are used to.  :o :P

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 30, 2017, 03:28:45 PM »
Thanks for pointing out my mistake in the nomenclature Andreas. Not many bergs or floes here in NZ. We may be fresh faced plebs from the colonies here in NZ but I'd hate to be thought as a "berger".
 We did have some giant Bergs visit about ten years ago. Larsen remnants I believe they were believed to be. They actually helicoptered Shrek the rogue merino ram out to be shorn of his ten year 12kg fleece on one as a publicity stunt, would you believe.

Are you sure that the roughness factor is not significant? The constant mobility, pulverisation, slushy mixing in magnitudes more lead area thats been going on all winter suggests to me that a lot of it is barely solid or frozen, loosely bound, waxy rubble, only weeks old. Perhaps more akin to a slushy that's been half-melted, drained, then refrozen. I guess surface area aside, the energy per volume required to melt it is a question.
 I suppose that the question could be answered by getting some sea water, freezing it with some partial thaw, mix and and drain cycles at intervals, and comparing melt energy with a sample prepared by undisturbed deep freeze.

Have plenty of seawater myself but no freezer. Refuse to part with any of the solar electrickeries I net for that. Tri-generation system with wind powered refrigeration pumps and a heavy brine cold store, solar thermal heavy brine hot store, with organic Kalina cycle turbine is on the ship to do list and most of the parts and materials are aboard, but there are other priorities right now.

Thanks Jim.  ;D I assumed it was my use of the Suomi imageset on worldview, not the Gods treating us to a snapshot of a parallel time-stream in the multiverse. ;D

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 30, 2017, 05:56:32 AM »
Funny thing with your animation Romitt, is that that berg disintergrating did not show on my worldview animations of the same days on the last page. Mysterious. Even more so its still there on the 29th imagery today when I check worldview. Below.

Heres a crack at cheeting the 700px wide rule by turning laptev 21-29 on its side. I am sick of the fiddly biz of selecting and cropping exact frames out of each image to get the best image.

Yep. that worked but you gotta click it. And zoom in with your browzer. (mine anyway)

Some speculation....
even assuming the ice density figures are correct and the free-board estimates calculate the volume are therefore near accurate and Piomass etc are not over-estimating Ice thickness due to that factor. Isn't the extreme youth and lack of deep freeze seasoning with the big FDD anomaly going to mean that a significant fraction of the berg volume is actually brine, and the percentage of crystalline ice lower than usual? Could this mean less ice to melt essentially? And perhaps it would melt at a lower temp than usual, delaying the onset of initial melt advance a little, until suddenly ... FWOOSH! it all goes very quick?

The way the bergs in the laptev animation quickly round off all their corners with a little jostling is suggestive they are very structurally unsound.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 30, 2017, 05:45:54 AM »
I know it's only a small part of the Arctic involved :) , but North of 80'N temperatures are nearly normal ! 

IMHO that is a sign of the melt process beginning in earnest everywhere the winds approaching the area are coming from. And the porosity of the ice and above normal snow, ice crystals in the air, making for more surface area for the moving air to get at than ever before.
The sublimation and melt and evaporation are sucking the heat out of the air before it gets to the 80+ Nth area?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 29, 2017, 03:41:45 AM »
 Three Animations for the eight days 21 april to 28th.

The Beaufort butter-churn,

The Chukchi Icecream maker,

And the East Siberian Sea Berg-Grinder.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 26, 2017, 07:24:58 AM »
Bering Strait is like washing machine, Apr 22 - Apr 24, Worldview.
Yes. Absolutely.
I noticed last night the motion of the bergs there had re ersed on suomi 24th imge compared to 23rd. It appears to have gone into flush mode again. Motion is still westward on the coast near wrangel. I wish someone with the image analysis tools and skills like Ateam could graph the mean basin sea level atmospheric pressure so we can map the correlation with the current behaviour. The wind in the Atlantic Quadrant has ceased its pernicious outward surge Assistance and a tidal back wash wave is probably capable of traversing the span to Bering in 6-8 hours. I'll try and research that later. The admiral is on a shore excursion at present to purchase equipment an vitals and only has hiz phone for egossipin.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 25, 2017, 12:41:31 AM »
A year on year look at the Beaufort. Far less cracks. Give it time though I suppose.




How Strange. I guess everyone's eyes are different, and its often easy to see what you want to see. But when I look at these comparisons I see significantly more cracks than 2016. And of course the results of a strong four day compaction event that's just occurred. I hope it doesn't mean I want to see everything crack up. ::)

Yes but the area of open water was completely crazy. This year it looks more normal and its been really cold.
"Give it time", well indeed according to the forecasts a high over Beaufort is back on day 4 from today and somehow warmer temps too. First weeks of May we see what happens with the cracks. They look really solid now!

Methinks there's circumstantial illusions created by a chrono-illogical snapshot. The shadow effect NW of the big Bergs and off the coast exaggerates the appearance of open water in the 2016 shot. Obviously due to a strong offshore DISPERSAL and polynia creation event with warm incoming air for a number of days coming in off Canada. This cherry pick of an inverse snapshot appears to show a crunch where all the fragments and slush are shoved first along the fringe of the CAA, then rammed into the armpit of the Alaskan/Canada border, the CAA catching like a strainer, and the persistent freezing winds off the Pole and CAA for the period, No doubt with wind blown snow to dust on top of the slush assisting, creating a greasy slick of Nilas.
 If you have a lot of slush and rubble dispersed well in the gaps between the bergs, like this year. Then refreeze in the cracks is obviously easier. But if a slight increase in contrast and simultaneous downward tweak of brightness takes most of the stuff between the large chunks out of those images, as I confess I did above, I doubt there's much insolation difference between the grease and the open water of last year.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 24, 2017, 11:51:35 PM »
A year on year look at the Beaufort. Far less cracks. Give it time though I suppose.




How Strange. I guess everyone's eyes are different, and its often easy to see what you want to see. But when I look at these comparisons I see significantly more cracks than 2016. And of course the results of a strong four day compaction event that's just occurred. I hope it doesn't mean I want to see everything crack up. ::)

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 24, 2017, 01:32:33 PM »
I've been trying to unpick the Current Bering Strait and Chukchi behavior. I don't think its too hard to understand. Two weeks ago as the monster high pressure started to build, there was much outflow and flushing of Ice thru the strait. Now the last week as low pressure is returning the current is surging back in. Despite the only time the winds in the strait or sth pacific have even looked slightly conducive to pushing anything Nth, and just barely,was the seventeenth.
1hpa of pressure is approximately equivalent to 1 cm of sea level. The drop in basin wide mean atmospheric pressure seems a good 20hpa since the 1049 peak. Equivalent to 20cm of sea level. And additionally there has been a very concerted effort by the winds in the Arctic quadrant to push water out that side. Still continuing. Quite some significant storm surge developed I'm sure. Even pushed a big tail of hot salty from over Iceland down around the Southern cape of Greenland.
So it appears that it is the Arctic and Atlantic that are sucking not so much that the Pacific blows. ;)
I am not so sure that any of the Nullschool current feeds are accurate. The berg movement through bering seems much faster than the 0.14m/s nth they always output there. Don't think they update it much. There definately seems to be pockets heading off down the siberian coast at the same SSTAs as the water getting thru on the Russian side.
Whats more the geography is quite ideal for a suck effect from strong east to west movement as was set up by the big High. There is a small Harbour entrance not far from where I am currently Anchored with the Greentech R&D Vessel , the 25m 60ton stone KiteShip White Rose ( https://www.google.co.nz/maps/@-36.766848,175.4722841,39m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en  ) that behaves this way. When there's a full ebb tide running, that entrance rushes INTO the harbour at about 12kmph! Thought I'd lost my marbles and got the tides back to front when I first saw it! :o Very similar current venturi effect. 8)

I wasted my time doing a gif of the Bering closeup today. T.T beat me to it! ;D What a waste of Solar Electrickyharvestin! A bit short on supply this week.  ::) And Thar be no baby petroleums murdered for any purpose on this vessel, ARR to be sure! :) 

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 10:28:34 AM »
A close-up of the evolution of SST anomalies in Bering sea during past 30 days or so (from the DMI SST anomalies maps). Insolation and ocean currents make a difference there already.

Its less than 50m deep all along there. Whether or not its wind driven, its a current. And as SIS pointed out with his excellent animation a few days ago....
I think you are right about trouble. Big burst of warm SST was charging up the Russian coast for Bering.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 09:35:22 AM »
Lets try a homemade one rather than a NASA nasty.
Its quite stunning how fast the current is surging along there. I know that often warmer salty water slides in on the bottom through the Bering straight, while it can even be flowing out on the surface. Certainly if its Pacific water making it all the way along there, the offshore wind would blow the fresher lens away and help it surface.

Still not playing. is there a size limit?
I guess yes.  ::)


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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 03:17:53 AM »
Not sure why that gif won't play ???

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 03:13:54 AM »
Interesting that this polynya that appeared about 1 week ago in ESS is about the only one within the Arctic proper not showing signs of refreeze. Why there?
Being April 22 big chances it will stay open.

I'm afraid you are seeing the result of a week long surge of warm nth pacific water coming thru Bering and rushing along the ESAS at up to 100km per day.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-04-22&z=3&v=-2342667.648686028,1311881.675158471,-1294091.6486860283,1843337.675158471&ab=off&as=2017-04-15&ae=2017-04-22&av=4&al=true

34
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the last year above 1m was 2016. 50/50 I Reckon.

reforestation and agricultural practices do not have the capability to remove CO2 fast enough so industrial activities must be engaged.  However there are chemical and technical processes for removing CO2 they do not exist are not currently in operation because we do not have a reimbursement mechanism to make them worthwhile.  I believe it would take a cost of carbon over $1,000 per metric tonne. 

Can't entirely agree with you there Jai. Widespread sugarcane and Kelp farming combined with pyrolysis and biochar soil remediation is both highly profitable and up to the job. Even if you just burn the Pyrolysis gas and liquid as fuel you can bury at least 100 tonC of carbon per hectare grown per year, eliminating fertilizer needs instantly and vastly improving soil productivity and health. The addition of the biochar to any soil will cause ongoing extra sequestration of fresh carbon, and a vast reduction in irrigation requirements. Sugarcane has over 1000x less water requirement than pasture anyway. Therefore up to 4x carbon negative energy can be achieved by anyone in their backyard with centuries old village level technology. In fact it is very easy and arguably also centuries old village level tech to use Pyrolysis oils as adhesives and timber treatment and coating systems. This allows substitution of steel and concrete construction systems with natural fibre/lumber/aggregate bioglue laminated beams, panels, and polymer concrete structural solutions. Far higher performance and lower cost than the extremely CO2 producing steel and concrete.
This immediately lobs you into 10x carbon negative territory. And rapidly back on the path to the several thousand tons C per hectare of living soil and above ground biomass that we used to have in our forests. Reduced to max 10-30 tons per hectare in todays agricultural practice. Here in New Zealand we have the worst environmental record per capita in the world. Over 900% deforestation in two centuries with over 20 million hectares reduced from about 2000 ton C pHa living biomass to 10 ton C/hectare. We are about 100 times as bad as Americans sad to say, in turning our living biomass in to CO2 polution of the air and oceans.
But if we do as suggested above with just 1 million hectares of our 25million land and 450million sea territory, we could sequester a couple of hundred million Ton C per year here and we are not a big country.
Why is it not happening? Big money won't do it because you cant patent it and hog all the power and profit. Small people are brainwashed into thinking that you can't do anything in this world without BIG MONEY.
False. The rich and powerful never change the world. Its always the little people.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« on: April 16, 2017, 01:21:07 AM »
Hmmm. With the kill zone extending all the way to FJL, and Bering and Nares etc also being very active, I wonder if the real toll might be closer to 3x what Frams been gobbling.
the other concern I have is how much of the surface water is being exported and lost with that Ice. the Ice may only average ¬2m, but is 10m or even 20m of low salinity water going along  with it?  ???

36
Antarctica / Re: Trends for the Southern Ocean
« on: April 12, 2017, 12:02:53 PM »
And so the southern ocean continues to steal the energy and moisture from the entire tropical pacific. And a close up of us being the meat in the sandwich. :o

They told us the last 2 events in the last month were 500 year floods. This ones already much worse. And the real stuffs coming tomorrow.  ;)

37
Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: April 12, 2017, 11:34:50 AM »
Documentary on Andrill with Rob DeConto and David Pollard on potential future sea level rise (from 45m34s onwards):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-_EECtAoRQ

Interesting. You can see how this process drives tectonics. The ice mass loss at the periphery causes depressurisation of the puddle of fluid water and carbonate rich magma that the continental fringes float on due to seafloor sediment subductions. This causes trench blockwise subsidence for example as per the 700km / 800km long stretches some 50 km wide that dropped ~30 metres in the Valdivia May 22, 1960 9.5 and Offshore Maule/Biobío February 27, 2010 8.8 events off Chile.
Simultaneously the increase in central Ice mass balance presurisses the ~500+ km deep superheated fluid basalt conduits that connect the continental keels to the midocean spreading zones. When you look at the repeat blockwise pattern of repeated ~50km wide food basalt sheets that spread out from the mid ocean trenches, and take note that the chemical composition of basalt formed is the same for thousands of km along the rifting zone, its clear that this is how it works. The seafloor is extruded in flood basalt pulses caused by the hydraulic pump of the ice sheet pistons, and blocks are simultaneously stacked under the continental fringes. Which is why the layers get younger as you go down. The heat, and tectonic mayhem released by these periodic isostatic overdrive episodes of course can cause large effect on sea levels and ice sheet stability ::)

38
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: April 12, 2017, 10:29:41 AM »
Cycles 57 and 49 (at ∼22.7 and 19.5 My ago), which are characterized by distinctly sawtooth-shaped ∼110-ky cycles, suggesting a causal link between cycle amplitude and asymmetry during the Early Miocene, but not during the MOGI. The distinctly asymmetric cycles suggest that the Early Miocene Antarctic ice sheets periodically underwent intervals of growth that were prolonged relative to astronomical forcing and then underwent subsequent rapid retreat in a manner akin to the glacial terminations of the Late Pleistocene glaciations, in which the large ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere were major participants (27, 28, 32). The highly asymmetric (sawtooth) nature of Late Pleistocene glacial−interglacial cycles is thought to originate from a positive ice mass balance that persists through several precession- and obliquity-paced summer insolation maxima. This results in decreasing ice sheet stability and more rapid terminations every ∼110 ky, once the ablation of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets increases dramatically in response to the next insolation maximum. The increase in ablation is caused by lowered surface elevation of the ice sheets resulting from crustal sinking and delayed isostatic rebound (33). Similar mechanisms are implied for the large Antarctic ice sheets of the OMT (∼22.5 My ago) but it is less clear why the smaller ice sheets of the Early Miocene (∼19.5 My ago) would exhibit this distinctly sawtooth-shaped pattern of growth and decay (Fig. 3).

As they point out here "delayed isostatic rebound" can be a factor in rapid ice sheet collapses. Though this is stated as causing rapid retreats through ablation, bottom melt processes could be a larger factor. Especially with Below sea level interiors like WA and Greenland. There is possibility here that this study, and even our data of the holocene deglaciation has even more rapid advance/ retreat behaviour smoothed out in published studies by preconceptions that have their root in the scientific consensus held until recently that major changes in large ice sheets take thousands of years to occur. Obviously data collected loses resolution with antiquity, and its not uncommon unfortunately for "anomalous" samples that don't fit the paradigm to be discarded and not even be mentioned in publication. As we appear to be learning that Atmosphere and ocean heat transport changes can produce large and rapid consequence, perhaps we should be considering the possibility that there may have been big Antarctic and Greenland melt backs in the meltwater pulses coming out of the last Glaciation. A process where the Laurentide and European Ice sheet melts trigger increased heat transport to poles via big storm systems caused by the temperature differentials in SSTs, then the process see-saws, causing a rapid meltback at the poles along with partial rebuilding of the L and E sheets via increased snowfalls caused by polar cyclone factories seems feasible. This would dampen the sea level changes as the 6x current total terrestrial ice sheet mass of 20ka bp crashed in several pulses over 10000 years to near current levels. Not a situation we currently can look forward to. With too much heat in the system the Temperate latitude caps can't build as the polar ones crash. But the runaway escalation of cyclone heat transport as Hansen's paper proposed for the end of the last interglacial 120 ka bp sure can. With the extra issues of far higher greenhouse burden and orbital forcings being more favourable to rapid meltings now.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 31, 2017, 01:11:25 AM »
Latest forecast runs suggests more high pressure dominated weather in the foreseeable future. If easterlies over Canadian Arctic will emerge we might get an early opening of the Beaufort Sea. Seems like temps should start to rise significantly soon as spring emerges northward.

The thin ice in Berings Sea will likely survive for another 10 days before a cyclone might smash through the ice with a significant reduction in sea ice extent.

Not so sure easterlies are likely or needed. The South-Southwest flow in the jets (red arrow and higher altitudes) being belt driven by this big nth pacific low is strong from ~1km altitude to over six. Looks likely this BIG hammerblow of warm wet air is going to get caught in it and run the Beaufort and CAA. The indigenous Totem Pole TerrorHawk over the great lakes is just a feint. And a warning. Hi Veli 8).
Reckon that Bering ice is just flush-mush Vader. Its been streaming out of the Bering and melting constantly. Good chance that cyclone will rip it up PROPER within a week. ;D

3km altitude winds and Total Precipitable Water at all altitudes per sqm:

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 30, 2017, 10:34:40 PM »
Lower down and temps at 1000hpa - a couple of hundred metres off the ground.
This flow seems about 1000km wide. Anyone care to estimate how much energy its dumping?
Thats probably snow on the water, not refreeze people are noticing. And with all the photons being emitted by the water vapour as it freezes in the sky, It would not even surprize me if there were melt ponds.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 30, 2017, 10:26:34 PM »
Seems like Laptev Sea will see temperatures briefly exceeding the freeze point in the next 24 hours. Questonable if there will be any precipitation in form of rain or sleet there.

Au contraire mon Ami  ::) . Snowing and sleeting its tits off I'm Afraid.

Its copping a roundhouse right hook from an Atlantic tropical water giant. below we have the images of 10kg/sqm flow of 100% relative humidity right up to at least 12km coming in off the continent at over 20 knots.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 27, 2017, 07:39:17 PM »
<snip; just this one time I've copied your off-topic rant to the What's new in Antarctica thread, next time I will remove your comment, keep it short and keep it to the point (ie the 2017 melting season); N.>

43
Arctic sea ice / Roundhouse punches from the ApocalyptoKraken
« on: March 27, 2017, 04:51:50 AM »
These Total Precipitable water maps look like theres seven water Giants wading Around the equator swinging tentacled fists under the cover of the jetsteam. In Nth and Southern Hemispheres each, three in the pacific, two per Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Every time the God Coriolis tries to deflect them, the following Kraken punches it back on course for the poles. The circulation has gone Feral! (or should that be Ferral?). Back flows seem to be at altitude. And Hadley seems history.

Quickstab at what this setup might mean numerically. Peer review and alternative approaches most welcome:
 ;)

1,680,000,000,000,000J
18.748 kg/sqm
200km x 50kmph (ballpark flow estimate) x 24hr = 240 000 sqkm = 240 000 000 000 sqm
240 000 000 000 sqm x 19 kg x 4200J = 19,152,000,000,000,000 Joules per day
=19.52 petajoules per day
Quote wikipedia:
"The petajoule (PJ) is equal to one quadrillion (10^15) joules. 210 PJ is equivalent to about 50 megatons of TNT. This is the amount of energy released by the Tsar Bomba, the largest man-made nuclear explosion ever."
"The gigajoule (GJ) is equal to one billion (10^9) joules. 6 GJ is about the amount of potential chemical energy in 160 L (approximately one US standard barrel) of oil, when combusted."
So about ten days of ApocalyptoKraken suckerpunches = 1 Tsar Bomba = 35 million Barrels of oil burned.
North pole at summer solstice gets 12.64 kWhrs per sqm. = 12.64 x 60mx 60s kJ / sqm = 45,504,000 J per sqm per day = 45 504 000 000 000J per sqkm per day.
19 152 000 000 000 000 / 45 504 000 000 000 = 420 sqkm of full midsummer insolation. About 4200sqkm of 10% absorbed as per bright white ice.
If we were to anticipate that in a few months time there might be twice as much water vapour per sqm incoming and 4000 km front of it crossing for flux calculation purposes, then it would be 80x this. So simular to 336 000 sqkm of normal midsummer insolation.
 (Neglecting other energy transported in the humid air of course. This probably of a far larger magnitude. Anyone want to do an estimate for the specific heat transport capacity of moist air column incoming, say flux area 1000km wide by 5km deep, velocity 50kmph?).

44
Arctic sea ice / pinning the tail on the donkey
« on: March 26, 2017, 01:15:59 AM »
Its pretty obvious that on the battlefield direct observations would benefit our understanding and eliminate a lot of uncertainty in the situation that satellite and models are creating.

Introducing the Maui Dolphin / Emperor Penguin data acquisition system. A little something I prepared earlier as a cheap and easy to manufacture and deploy ROV that can travel at up to 30kph and to ~150m depths with long term independent of pickup and maintenance capability due to solar and wave energy power generation. And surf riding high speed transit capability.
Dimensions as per namesakes.
 Estimated cost under $2000, sensors extra.
Anyone want to crowd fund some? Lets start a thread. We can make extra money by hiring them out to Webpilots in their sparetime. Moderator riding shotgun of course.  8)

45
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 25, 2017, 12:54:27 PM »
Little Inferno Just For Me

It's little inferno
It's little inferno just for me
I've got the fireplace
That burns at a hundred billion degrees
It's little inferno just for me

I've got these old toys
I've got this box of memories
We'll shove them in the fire
And breathe in the flaming potpourri
It's little inferno just for me

But I thought playing with fire was dangerous
Well you're right
But up out of your chimney
Way up in the sky
It's been snowing for years
And we just don't know why
Our world is getting colder
But there's no need for alarm
Just sit by your fire
Burn all of your toys
And stay warm

It's little inferno
It's little inferno just for me
I've got the fireplace
That burns at a hundred billion degrees
It's little inferno just for me

46
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 25, 2017, 12:29:34 PM »
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GP9_DQM2rwc

We've all been conned! The planets getting colder snd we just don't know why!

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 04:57:18 PM »
Meanwhile the circulations of the less visible stuff above at this point below.
850hpa ~1.2km , 500hpa ~6km , 70hpa ~18km , 10hpa ~30km

There appears to be now a hole right through the roof of the dawn.
The counterclockwise rotations are stacked from  sea level up to 30km over the Arctic lows. And even higher I suspect. Notice the temperature is at its lowest in the 30km altitude where I have marked the green circle at 70 and 10hpa altitudes. The stratosphere starts where the temperature is lowest and rises with altitude from there. This area above the Kara and Severny Island looks like it has the updrafts from the resident lows starting to shear away, but likely still rising at 30km up. Producing this cold spot due to expansion of the rising air. The 10hpa world looks completely different to a month or two ago. Then the coldest place was above the equator, and the warmest the poles. Now the opposite. Almost anyway, the warmest spot is where I've marked with the red squiggle on the 10hpa pic above the nth Pacific. A toasty -37C ! There appears to be a third stratospheric polar Vortex establishing at this point. Descending air from even higher up? There is a pretty warm big and deep low directly below it but in the 12-18 km altitude range at that location there's a very big jetflow sprawling out into the warmest region in the 12-18km atmosphere. Over CAA and Greenland.

Very stable and unbending rivers air below aligning with the big 3-18 km altitude 30 -70 degree nth or sth meandering jets that have established. Like the Southerly blast coming up the Atlantic from off Americas east coast ound 30deg nth thats been established for  days through the whole nth sea.
We had one like that 2 weeks ago in NZ. The easterly Trades just bent and came straight down off fiji 2500km nth of here. And met a river coming 3000km from the SSW straight up off Antarctica. No "weather systems" circulating, but A 100yr flood every night for 4 days.  And gale force winds without a cyclonic driver. :o

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:45:58 PM »
Nice Work SIS, you posted while I was typing,  :o

 
This is a wedge-like intrusion of ocean that is trying to reach the Bering Strait,

Looks like this surge is pumping a big flush out of Bering in that third Animation.
I've often wondered if there is a periodic resonance effect in the Bering in/out flows. If storm surges in from the atlantic side match the tidal resonance of the Arctic basin then it could make Bering look pretty interesting.  ::)

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:32:06 PM »
"...the Arctic turns into a single gyre"?

 There hasn't even been a gyre lately. Instead the ice in the Arctic Basin has been blown from the Russian side and compressed against the Canadian side, with some leaking out towards the Atlantic...

  The good news is that the compression has helped to heal the Beaufort Sea back to around a 2 metre thickness.

   But what if the tear-and-compression continues well into April or May? Will large stretches of water remain open on the Russian side, efficiently absorbing the peak insolation around the Summer solstice?

  A broader question is why so much compression? Is there enough thin and weak ice this year in the Arctic Basin that any wind pressure from the Russian side will always result in movement and compression? And is this movement replacing the Beaufort gyre of seasons past, with the ice now compressing rather than transferring the force for rotation?

   If so, does this mean that maximum Arctic sea ice volume for the year has descended this season to a transition value, or even a tipping point, where the ice will continue to tear-and-compress from the Russian side heading into the Summer melt season, with the Russian side therefore opening up anomalously early?

   Or, instead, will the movement damp down within a few weeks and those consequences won't come to pass this year?

   Either way, the plot twists and turns of the melt season are going to provide us with riveting viewing.

This looks a dangerous pattern indeed. If the anticlockwise forcing from low pressure systems continues then the chances of hot gulfstream water sweeping right around the top of europe onto the ESAS this summer are multiplied. This would effectively multiply the killing front where ice is being gobbled and surface low salinity surface waters are mixed away that has thus far been extending its grasp past Svalbard but blocked in recent years by FJL. If it gets well in place and a "pan Arctic CCW Gyre" sets up we could even see Pacific waters pumping in through Bering straight in Autumn to extend the Halocline killing front into a full Arctic Circle Whirlpool. ???

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 01:41:53 AM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

My quick and off the cuff list might be as follows:
1: What real world empirical  data can we trust regarding the state of the halocline. -once the besieged lower salinity surface waters are exported and corrupted by salt enrichment from the winter there can be no winter refreeze.
2: How much water vapour is smoking in to the zone on unforeseen atmospheric circulation systemic reformations. - as it phase transitions from vapour to liquid or even more so importantly from liquid to solid it emits photons in all directions, most importantly downwards, that are precisely the frequency for the reverse transition of water molecules in the reverse homily to elevate their energy level via a melt or boil.
3: How much export transport of ice out of the basin is current and ongoing, what salt/ water ratio is part of this equation,  with implications obvious for (1)


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