Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Hyperion

Pages: [1]
1
These Total Precipitable water maps look like theres seven water Giants wading Around the equator swinging tentacled fists under the cover of the jetsteam. In Nth and Southern Hemispheres each, three in the pacific, two per Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Every time the God Coriolis tries to deflect them, the following Kraken punches it back on course for the poles. The circulation has gone Feral! (or should that be Ferral?). Back flows seem to be at altitude. And Hadley seems history.

Quickstab at what this setup might mean numerically. Peer review and alternative approaches most welcome:
 ;)

1,680,000,000,000,000J
18.748 kg/sqm
200km x 50kmph (ballpark flow estimate) x 24hr = 240 000 sqkm = 240 000 000 000 sqm
240 000 000 000 sqm x 19 kg x 4200J = 19,152,000,000,000,000 Joules per day
=19.52 petajoules per day
Quote wikipedia:
"The petajoule (PJ) is equal to one quadrillion (10^15) joules. 210 PJ is equivalent to about 50 megatons of TNT. This is the amount of energy released by the Tsar Bomba, the largest man-made nuclear explosion ever."
"The gigajoule (GJ) is equal to one billion (10^9) joules. 6 GJ is about the amount of potential chemical energy in 160 L (approximately one US standard barrel) of oil, when combusted."
So about ten days of ApocalyptoKraken suckerpunches = 1 Tsar Bomba = 35 million Barrels of oil burned.
North pole at summer solstice gets 12.64 kWhrs per sqm. = 12.64 x 60mx 60s kJ / sqm = 45,504,000 J per sqm per day = 45 504 000 000 000J per sqkm per day.
19 152 000 000 000 000 / 45 504 000 000 000 = 420 sqkm of full midsummer insolation. About 4200sqkm of 10% absorbed as per bright white ice.
If we were to anticipate that in a few months time there might be twice as much water vapour per sqm incoming and 4000 km front of it crossing for flux calculation purposes, then it would be 80x this. So simular to 336 000 sqkm of normal midsummer insolation.
 (Neglecting other energy transported in the humid air of course. This probably of a far larger magnitude. Anyone want to do an estimate for the specific heat transport capacity of moist air column incoming, say flux area 1000km wide by 5km deep, velocity 50kmph?).

2
Arctic sea ice / pinning the tail on the donkey
« on: March 26, 2017, 01:15:59 AM »
Its pretty obvious that on the battlefield direct observations would benefit our understanding and eliminate a lot of uncertainty in the situation that satellite and models are creating.

Introducing the Maui Dolphin / Emperor Penguin data acquisition system. A little something I prepared earlier as a cheap and easy to manufacture and deploy ROV that can travel at up to 30kph and to ~150m depths with long term independent of pickup and maintenance capability due to solar and wave energy power generation. And surf riding high speed transit capability.
Dimensions as per namesakes.
 Estimated cost under $2000, sensors extra.
Anyone want to crowd fund some? Lets start a thread. We can make extra money by hiring them out to Webpilots in their sparetime. Moderator riding shotgun of course.  8)

3
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 25, 2017, 12:54:27 PM »
Little Inferno Just For Me

It's little inferno
It's little inferno just for me
I've got the fireplace
That burns at a hundred billion degrees
It's little inferno just for me

I've got these old toys
I've got this box of memories
We'll shove them in the fire
And breathe in the flaming potpourri
It's little inferno just for me

But I thought playing with fire was dangerous
Well you're right
But up out of your chimney
Way up in the sky
It's been snowing for years
And we just don't know why
Our world is getting colder
But there's no need for alarm
Just sit by your fire
Burn all of your toys
And stay warm

It's little inferno
It's little inferno just for me
I've got the fireplace
That burns at a hundred billion degrees
It's little inferno just for me

4
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 25, 2017, 12:29:34 PM »
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GP9_DQM2rwc

We've all been conned! The planets getting colder snd we just don't know why!

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 04:57:18 PM »
Meanwhile the circulations of the less visible stuff above at this point below.
850hpa ~1.2km , 500hpa ~6km , 70hpa ~18km , 10hpa ~30km

There appears to be now a hole right through the roof of the dawn.
The counterclockwise rotations are stacked from  sea level up to 30km over the Arctic lows. And even higher I suspect. Notice the temperature is at its lowest in the 30km altitude where I have marked the green circle at 70 and 10hpa altitudes. The stratosphere starts where the temperature is lowest and rises with altitude from there. This area above the Kara and Severny Island looks like it has the updrafts from the resident lows starting to shear away, but likely still rising at 30km up. Producing this cold spot due to expansion of the rising air. The 10hpa world looks completely different to a month or two ago. Then the coldest place was above the equator, and the warmest the poles. Now the opposite. Almost anyway, the warmest spot is where I've marked with the red squiggle on the 10hpa pic above the nth Pacific. A toasty -37C ! There appears to be a third stratospheric polar Vortex establishing at this point. Descending air from even higher up? There is a pretty warm big and deep low directly below it but in the 12-18 km altitude range at that location there's a very big jetflow sprawling out into the warmest region in the 12-18km atmosphere. Over CAA and Greenland.

Very stable and unbending rivers air below aligning with the big 3-18 km altitude 30 -70 degree nth or sth meandering jets that have established. Like the Southerly blast coming up the Atlantic from off Americas east coast ound 30deg nth thats been established for  days through the whole nth sea.
We had one like that 2 weeks ago in NZ. The easterly Trades just bent and came straight down off fiji 2500km nth of here. And met a river coming 3000km from the SSW straight up off Antarctica. No "weather systems" circulating, but A 100yr flood every night for 4 days.  And gale force winds without a cyclonic driver. :o

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:45:58 PM »
Nice Work SIS, you posted while I was typing,  :o

 
This is a wedge-like intrusion of ocean that is trying to reach the Bering Strait,

Looks like this surge is pumping a big flush out of Bering in that third Animation.
I've often wondered if there is a periodic resonance effect in the Bering in/out flows. If storm surges in from the atlantic side match the tidal resonance of the Arctic basin then it could make Bering look pretty interesting.  ::)

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:32:06 PM »
"...the Arctic turns into a single gyre"?

 There hasn't even been a gyre lately. Instead the ice in the Arctic Basin has been blown from the Russian side and compressed against the Canadian side, with some leaking out towards the Atlantic...

  The good news is that the compression has helped to heal the Beaufort Sea back to around a 2 metre thickness.

   But what if the tear-and-compression continues well into April or May? Will large stretches of water remain open on the Russian side, efficiently absorbing the peak insolation around the Summer solstice?

  A broader question is why so much compression? Is there enough thin and weak ice this year in the Arctic Basin that any wind pressure from the Russian side will always result in movement and compression? And is this movement replacing the Beaufort gyre of seasons past, with the ice now compressing rather than transferring the force for rotation?

   If so, does this mean that maximum Arctic sea ice volume for the year has descended this season to a transition value, or even a tipping point, where the ice will continue to tear-and-compress from the Russian side heading into the Summer melt season, with the Russian side therefore opening up anomalously early?

   Or, instead, will the movement damp down within a few weeks and those consequences won't come to pass this year?

   Either way, the plot twists and turns of the melt season are going to provide us with riveting viewing.

This looks a dangerous pattern indeed. If the anticlockwise forcing from low pressure systems continues then the chances of hot gulfstream water sweeping right around the top of europe onto the ESAS this summer are multiplied. This would effectively multiply the killing front where ice is being gobbled and surface low salinity surface waters are mixed away that has thus far been extending its grasp past Svalbard but blocked in recent years by FJL. If it gets well in place and a "pan Arctic CCW Gyre" sets up we could even see Pacific waters pumping in through Bering straight in Autumn to extend the Halocline killing front into a full Arctic Circle Whirlpool. ???

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 01:41:53 AM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

My quick and off the cuff list might be as follows:
1: What real world empirical  data can we trust regarding the state of the halocline. -once the besieged lower salinity surface waters are exported and corrupted by salt enrichment from the winter there can be no winter refreeze.
2: How much water vapour is smoking in to the zone on unforeseen atmospheric circulation systemic reformations. - as it phase transitions from vapour to liquid or even more so importantly from liquid to solid it emits photons in all directions, most importantly downwards, that are precisely the frequency for the reverse transition of water molecules in the reverse homily to elevate their energy level via a melt or boil.
3: How much export transport of ice out of the basin is current and ongoing, what salt/ water ratio is part of this equation,  with implications obvious for (1)


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 13, 2017, 07:04:06 PM »
@Hyperion
The circulation patterns over the Arctic match all the way up to 250 hpa, but change between there and 70 hpa.(If I am looking at it, wrong please correct me) If you have the mslp button on, while on Earth NS it makes it appear to match higher and will read wrong sometimes even after you turn it off. Still I find it pretty remarkable that the patterns match all the way up to jet stream height. Not saying that has never happened at all, but I don't recall seeing it. Anyone have a clue as to what this might mean?
The circulation exists anticlockwise over the arctic one and the Antarctic clockwise still at the 70hpa about 18km. Above that the arctic one has a clockwise up to 270 kmph vortex. Possibly its high altitude outflow. Certainly the only point in the 10hpa world colder than below it. But intermeshed is a raging anticlockwise spool winding in a jet from the equator that passes 1.5 times around the planet. I'm hypothesising a mechanism  may exist for that one assisting spawning the nth Atlantic new ones that keep forming directly beneath it.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 13, 2017, 10:43:27 AM »
The overall atmospheric circulations in both hemispheres are reminiscent of tropical cyclones with dual eyewalls. there only one significant low in each hemisphere right now. And they both seem to extend in height right up to near 10hPa - 30km altitude. The stratospheric set up over the nth atlantic seems to be dropping them like eggs to invade the arctic, and the helical infeed at high levels is beyond my ability to speculate on consequences. There seems very little cyclonic activity in either hemisphere outside of the big low pressure eyes in each. Im intrigued as to whether the high altitude east to west flow moving from the south, and now flirting with the equator is going to continue migrating north with the equinox passing and its twin u-turn outflows into the Nth hemisphere vortexes strengthen and consolidate.  Dumping southern summer energy on the northern polar system.
Anyone remember kansas? If this is a mode setting in solidly we might be in for desert zones from 35 sth to 35 nth latitudes. Looks like any tropical lows trying to form are getting their tops sheared off and stillborn. The Hadley cells losing the war.
We may have an explanation for why it was cosy for temperate climate critters, at least seasonally, in northern Europe, Siberia and Alaska after the big melt pulse 13KA BP. This sort of thing could have it very warm and wet in those places.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 12, 2017, 09:59:57 PM »
hmmm...
a few rough guesstimates calculated by various means are suggesting that with this constant motion and export of surface water and ice into a long polar basin kill zone with big wind and wave conditions mixing in with Gulfstream waters, we could have lost several metres of an arctic ocean wide fresher layer by export alone over the winter. And the constant refreezing of the exposed waters is of course releasing some brine but with so much motion I'd be surprized if this does anything but raise the salinity of the lens. Halocline collapse is looking likely. :'(

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: March 11, 2017, 09:11:35 PM »
250hpa 10km

70hpa 18.5km

10hpa 30km


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: March 11, 2017, 09:03:15 PM »
Had to add an extension to chrome for the screenshots
1000hpa 100m

850hpa 1.5km

700hpa 3km

500hpa 5.5km




14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: March 10, 2017, 06:55:30 PM »
Anyone think that the Atmospheres circulations are looking strange? :o

 I'm interested that at all levels from 1km right up to thirty km the circulations seem to be stacking quite neatly above each other. ???

Has the troposphere/ stratosphere boundary lifted? The decrease in temp with altitude seems to be now continuing to between 18 km and 30 km darn near everywhere. Is there even a distinction between them anymore?  :-\

The ferocious planetwide mixing that seems to be establishing, particularly from 700 hPa 3km, right up to 10hPa, 32km has regions at both the poles only 25c below equatorial temps at the 3km altitude, and very close planetwide above that. A little warmer above the poles than the equator at 18km in fact.

I've been watching this closely over the past few days. Not an expert in this. Is it far from normal? Seems major changes are occurring almost daily.

temp s pole -45.8,  n pole -51.6, Eq -45.9  at 32km: 10 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=55.261,-82.453

temp s pole -47.3,  n pole -64.6, Eq -78.9  at 18.5km: 70 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=55.261,-82.453

temp s pole -48,  n pole -57.9, Eq -41.4  at 10km: 250 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=100.325,-87.117

temp s pole -40.4,  n pole -37.6, Eq -5.3  at 5.5km: 500 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=100.325,-87.117

temp s pole -41.3,  n pole -25.4, Eq  10.4  at 3km: 700 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=100.325,-87.117

temp s pole -32.6,  n pole -20.6, Eq 17.8  at 1.5km: 850 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=100.325,-87.117

temp s pole -25, n pole -31.1, Eq 27.2  at 100m: 1000 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=99.954,0.248

How do I lift screenshots from nullschool in chrome? anyone?

15
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: March 03, 2017, 12:17:46 PM »
Quite simply by going Pyrolysis to biofuel and biochar and biochem for construction, energy and soil restoration. Energy Canes, and Kelp as number one weapons for core ecology primary producers as they are super producers, but maximising biodiversity will maximise carbon uptake in your ecologies.

The above can achieve 10x carbon negative energy and construction with ongoing carbon sequestration and topsoil growth from the Terra Preta.

Increasing economic activity tenfold with 10x current levels of construction and energy consumption would then draw down 100 years of current CO2e emissions in one year.

Easy huh? all at least 100 year old Tech. So the problem is no patents or monopolies for the big boys. They unfortunately have been conned by accountants to believe they can hoard technology with patents so have been desperately looking for some new gimmick they can slap one on to do the job, which is ridiculous at the pace at which knowledge is advancing anyway. Lets get on with it. All together now. YAYHAAA!!!!  ;) Lets get gardening!!! on the land and in the sea!!!!

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2017, 04:22:29 PM »
Based on the behavior of this freeze season, the single most salient characteristic of the approaching melt season will be mobility of the ice. We have seen this all winter and it will only get more obvious.

The Atmospheric weirdness globally is whats fascinating me most. Which is I guess the Cause and in no small part also the symptom. The record drift velocities and lack of cohesion must be drawing up lots of heat from the warm Salty layers. The thermal transfer across the sub mixed surface layer halopause must be far larger than normal. Relative motion and increased surface area from waving both have potential for big conduction enhancements without even looking at mixing.
The nullschool imaging like this:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/atlantis=-36.90,182.05,130/loc=-129.803,-65.515
(not sure how to get that visible)
looks for all the world to me like a near collapse of polar and hadley cells in both hemispheres, with the Ferrel cells setting up as a single cell per hemisphere circulation. And the 250hpa cross equator flows feeding sthrn summer heat into the arctic winter over the pacific and africa, and the indian ocean returns dropping cold back into our single mid latitude jet whirlpool intrigue me. I've always thought that a single cell hadley was the only single cell dynamic possible. :-\  Though as long as there's much ice on Antarctica, I expect still it is in sthrn winter. Maybee hypertropie cyclones feeding big Antarctic low midwinter? :o

<a href="https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/atlantis=-36.90,182.05,130/loc=-129.803,-65.515" target="_blank" class="new_win">https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/atlantis=-36.90,182.05,130/loc=-129.803,-65.515</a>

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2017, 03:55:29 PM »
It is kind of nice being on the other end for a change. I usually get accused of being the dramatic one. Others are always telling me, "it's not that bad." Well, maybe it just is.

That being the case, excellent point made by Hyperion.


Thanks Tigertown...I think  :-\ I personally like to try and step back, take a Long and philosophical viewpoint, rather than the slightly chrono-NIMBY perspective of change being "bad" because its not what we are used to. And when I see stuff about pseudo-foehns bringing down warm air from altitude to drop 19C Temps on Iceland. I immediately start to ponder whether these big global graphics like Nullschool, pretty as they might look are missing a lot of local weather effects from to small to notice on such scale turbulence effects. And how much snow interleaved with rain and super-cooled liquid water dropping thru near surface subzero  air onto that snow to form ice layers might have been going on in the early freeze season. There may have been some very warm and moist jets coming in at altitude in the cyclones even right through the freeze season that don't jump out and say "look at me!" in altitude integrated TPW. And these satellites probably only can distingush surface texture, Not whats under a few mm of shiny ice crust. ::)

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 15, 2017, 06:02:09 PM »
Norwegians have nicked the polar vortex to provide wind for electricity generation  for their electrical vehicles programme. Mind you, they are also opening up new oil fields in the Barents.

If they make some Giant Seacrete ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biorock ) or Geopolymer ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolymer )
 heat exchangers instead of concrete oil rigs....

 They could make enough electricity to power all the worlds transport needs by putting turbines on heatpipes  ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pipe ) to transfer the heat from the gulfstream up to the south of Greenland meltpool. Put the brakes on this 10x anthro GG global warming effect from the meltpool reducing outgoing long wave over a large area of the earths surface and causing an accelerating runaway greenland melt. And the cyclone canon of the adjacent hot and cold surface waters building up from current ww2 bren gun level that produced 60ft swells in the north atlantic to the 100,000 year ago style revolving six barrel 100mm autogun version, (or even worse considering the much faster rate of change we have triggered) that sent 200 ft waves right across the north Atlantic Ocean to throw 10m plus boulders 6 kms inland and 50m above sea level onto ridgetops in the bahamas.
 Assuming that Hansen and Co's paper before paris had any validity of course.  ::)

I love heatpipes  8)
No moving parts and they have achieved greater per area energy fluxes than the surface of the sun with them in the lab.

 You could even electrolyse the co2 out of the sea and air into hydrocarbon fuel for transport purposes. Then shift reaction the energy into liquid hydrogen later for transport fuel, and sequester the C as char or engineering polymers.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 15, 2017, 05:36:26 PM »
Somewhat strong export over the next week. It is already hurting the concentration in the ESS and Chukchi, due to what has been pushed out to the Bering Sea.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE


Are these thickness plots still being based on 10% freeboard or what ever similar figure is historically used for old fashioned firstyear ice? Eg/ where they are graphing 2m thick is it based on satellite measurements of  ~0.2m freeboard?
 I'm concerned that the real density might be significantly lower. if its mostly snow and  rotten honeycomb with thin ice crusts interleaved, it could be as low as 0.5 kg/litre which would make 0.2m freeboard actually ~0.4m thickness. And the blowtorch like melts in the killzone fram / svalbard / bering areas certainly look to me like what you would expect from thin and rubbish quality ice. Not solid 2m thick berg.  ???

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Slow Transition
« on: February 13, 2017, 03:03:23 AM »
There's probably not a heck of a lot of reliability in cryosat, piomass or any basic fdd based estimates. the rules of the game have been changing so fast. The ice quality is rubbish and is far less thermally conductive than it used to be, and lower in density. Meaning that freeboard measurements by satelite are almost certainly overstating the actual thickness when the models assume that the submerged thickness is simular to what it used to be. Porous rotten ice, interleaved, snow layers and ice crusts from flash surface melts and supercooled water hitting the surface and flash freezing as per standard ice storm scenarios will all cause massive conductivity reduction. And its pretty certain that theres been major reduction in the low salinity layers integrity over the whole arctic ocean. we would be foolish to put any faith in models like mercantor for halocline and temperature at depth profiles without extensive direct measurements to back them up. Even if there is still a distinct boundary between surface water  and warmer atlantic/ pacific water below, the effects of all the slosh and wave action now going on will be assisting a lot of heat to soak upward into the surface layer making serious increase in underice roughness, and therefore surface area that will make it all the more vunerable to rapid melt out later in the season. :(

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 12, 2017, 09:50:48 PM »
Anyone here suffering from Mortality Salience?  ::) Planetry MS sure is a biggy for most. they do anything to distract themselves from having to think about it. ;)

Quote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_salience
"Potential to cause worldview defense[edit]
Mortality salience has the potential to cause worldview defense, a psychological mechanism that strengthens people's connection with their in-group as a defense mechanism. Studies also show that mortality salience can lead people to feel more inclined to punish minor moral transgressions. One such study divided a group of judges into two groups—one that was asked to reflect upon their own mortality, and one group that was not. The judges were then asked to set a bond for an alleged prostitute. The group that had reflected on mortality set an average bond of $455, while the control group's average bond was $50.[4]
Another study found that mortality salience could cause an increase in support for martyrdom and military intervention. Tom Pyszczynski et al. found that students who had reflected on their mortality showed preference towards people who supported martyrdom, and indicated they might consider martyrdom themselves. They also found that, especially among students who were politically conservative, mortality salience increased support for military intervention, but not among students who were politically liberal.[5] "

from Terror management theory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terror_management_theory :

"  TMT is derived from anthropologist Ernest Becker's 1973 Pulitzer Prize-winning work of nonfiction The Denial of Death, in which Becker argues most human action is taken to ignore or avoid the inevitability of death. The terror of absolute annihilation creates such a profound – albeit subconscious – anxiety in people that they spend their lives attempting to make sense of it. On large scales, societies build symbols: laws, religious meaning systems, cultures, and belief systems to explain the significance of life, define what makes certain characteristics, skills, and talents extraordinary, reward others whom they find exemplify certain attributes, and punish or kill others who do not adhere to their cultural worldview. On an individual level, self-esteem provides a buffer against death-related anxiety."

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 12, 2017, 09:27:20 PM »
Don't forget acidification making it impossible for fishes and shellfish and crustaceans  to produce shells for their eggs or the young to form skeletons. Already stopped the mussels being able to reproduce on around 1/4 of New Zealand's coastline. You need to electrify reefs to overcome it.   :(

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 12, 2017, 08:05:51 PM »
"My goal with the paper is to describe just how exposed the department is to climate change crisis."

 ::)
About as exposed as a piece of photographic film wrapped around a fuel rod in a candu reactor.

This planet needs periodic defrost cycles or permafrost and deepsea hydrocarbon reservoirs build up to dangerous levels that could trigger a venus style runaway greenhouse event that boils the oceans and leaves us with 100 atmospheres of pressure and temperatures that would melt lead at sea level. This has been happening on an approximately 150my cycle here for the last billion years. The worst crash, from the perspective of the critters in residence from a glaciated phase, which usually lasts around 50my to a hothouse earth where mostly reptiles and insects are happiest, in this time, was the end Permian event 250 million years ago. but at that time we had one super-continent, Pangaea, with a small icecap at one end, and potential for permafrost carbon and deepsea clathrates was undeniably much less than our current situation. And the current crop of apes have triggered a defrost far more rapid in progress than ever before. Keep your chin up  ;D its a privileged position to be around to witness such a rare event. whether its the death of a planetary biosphere or the critters with the brains to grab the reins and steer the cart away from the cliff actually doing it. Science is hamstrung by only being allowed to speak about the past with certainty. and is yet to recover from bullying by the fossil trolls, so is speaking in over conservative terms about future predictions. The Chinese write crisis with two symbols. One means danger, the other opportunity. Its a good idea to look for the silver lining that generally is hidden in most dark clouds. Order is stagnant chaos is fertile. You are either green and growing, or ripe and rotting.
 8)

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 11, 2017, 12:04:31 PM »
Stupid question follow on...

What is the estimate for the total flow into and out of the Arctic basin, in KM3 of water?

The reason I ask is, salt purge out of freezing ice is only going to be a small fraction of the volume of ice melted (which is going to be less than 6000 or so KM3 a season).  If we presume 10% of that - or 600KM3/year, what fraction would that be of the total circulation?

Point I'm making here is, is the refreeze really what's driving the circulation?

According to wikipedia total flow out of the Arctic is about 11 Sverdrups.

( A sverdrup) is equivalent to 1 million cubic metres per second (264,000,000 USgal/s). The entire global input of fresh water from rivers to the ocean is equal to about 1.2 sverdrup.

Therefore a Sverdrup is equivalent to 1/1000th of a Km^3. So  in a day the outflow is approx 8640 * 11 / 1000 Km^3. per day so about 95 Km^3 per day. The inflow from rivers would be at best 100th of this so the rest must come from the Atlantic and Pacific.

600Km^3 therfore amounts to  about 2% of the flow.

Does anyone get any devious notions from numbers like this or is it just me.  ;)

specific heat capacity of water = 4.2 kj/kg/K
~42 000 000 000 000 kJ per day for 1% of flow out of arctic ocean (~100km^3) at 10k difference
= 486 000 000 kw = 486 000 megawatts = 486 gigawatts
world = 5 terawatts = 5million megawatts
therefore 10% of flow is equal to world electricity consumption
Irminger Current 11- 27 sverdrup = 11m-27m cubic m per sec.

Wouldn't it be nice to heat the greenland low salinity meltpool with gulfstream waters so it can radiate heat away, and not cause these cyclone canons? And thereby cool the Salty hot stuff to preserve overturning, but keep it south of the faroes- iceland ridge so it dinae get up north where its truble?.  :o  8)  ???
Anyone heard of heatpipes?

Pages: [1]