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Messages - Hyperion

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: Today at 07:24:58 AM »
Bering Strait is like washing machine, Apr 22 - Apr 24, Worldview.
Yes. Absolutely.
I noticed last night the motion of the bergs there had re ersed on suomi 24th imge compared to 23rd. It appears to have gone into flush mode again. Motion is still westward on the coast near wrangel. I wish someone with the image analysis tools and skills like Ateam could graph the mean basin sea level atmospheric pressure so we can map the correlation with the current behaviour. The wind in the Atlantic Quadrant has ceased its pernicious outward surge Assistance and a tidal back wash wave is probably capable of traversing the span to Bering in 6-8 hours. I'll try and research that later. The admiral is on a shore excursion at present to purchase equipment an vitals and only has hiz phone for egossipin.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 25, 2017, 12:41:31 AM »
A year on year look at the Beaufort. Far less cracks. Give it time though I suppose.




How Strange. I guess everyone's eyes are different, and its often easy to see what you want to see. But when I look at these comparisons I see significantly more cracks than 2016. And of course the results of a strong four day compaction event that's just occurred. I hope it doesn't mean I want to see everything crack up. ::)

Yes but the area of open water was completely crazy. This year it looks more normal and its been really cold.
"Give it time", well indeed according to the forecasts a high over Beaufort is back on day 4 from today and somehow warmer temps too. First weeks of May we see what happens with the cracks. They look really solid now!

Methinks there's circumstantial illusions created by a chrono-illogical snapshot. The shadow effect NW of the big Bergs and off the coast exaggerates the appearance of open water in the 2016 shot. Obviously due to a strong offshore DISPERSAL and polynia creation event with warm incoming air for a number of days coming in off Canada. This cherry pick of an inverse snapshot appears to show a crunch where all the fragments and slush are shoved first along the fringe of the CAA, then rammed into the armpit of the Alaskan/Canada border, the CAA catching like a strainer, and the persistent freezing winds off the Pole and CAA for the period, No doubt with wind blown snow to dust on top of the slush assisting, creating a greasy slick of Nilas.
 If you have a lot of slush and rubble dispersed well in the gaps between the bergs, like this year. Then refreeze in the cracks is obviously easier. But if a slight increase in contrast and simultaneous downward tweak of brightness takes most of the stuff between the large chunks out of those images, as I confess I did above, I doubt there's much insolation difference between the grease and the open water of last year.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 24, 2017, 11:51:35 PM »
A year on year look at the Beaufort. Far less cracks. Give it time though I suppose.




How Strange. I guess everyone's eyes are different, and its often easy to see what you want to see. But when I look at these comparisons I see significantly more cracks than 2016. And of course the results of a strong four day compaction event that's just occurred. I hope it doesn't mean I want to see everything crack up. ::)

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 24, 2017, 01:32:33 PM »
I've been trying to unpick the Current Bering Strait and Chukchi behavior. I don't think its too hard to understand. Two weeks ago as the monster high pressure started to build, there was much outflow and flushing of Ice thru the strait. Now the last week as low pressure is returning the current is surging back in. Despite the only time the winds in the strait or sth pacific have even looked slightly conducive to pushing anything Nth, and just barely,was the seventeenth.
1hpa of pressure is approximately equivalent to 1 cm of sea level. The drop in basin wide mean atmospheric pressure seems a good 20hpa since the 1049 peak. Equivalent to 20cm of sea level. And additionally there has been a very concerted effort by the winds in the Arctic quadrant to push water out that side. Still continuing. Quite some significant storm surge developed I'm sure. Even pushed a big tail of hot salty from over Iceland down around the Southern cape of Greenland.
So it appears that it is the Arctic and Atlantic that are sucking not so much that the Pacific blows. ;)
I am not so sure that any of the Nullschool current feeds are accurate. The berg movement through bering seems much faster than the 0.14m/s nth they always output there. Don't think they update it much. There definately seems to be pockets heading off down the siberian coast at the same SSTAs as the water getting thru on the Russian side.
Whats more the geography is quite ideal for a suck effect from strong east to west movement as was set up by the big High. There is a small Harbour entrance not far from where I am currently Anchored with the Greentech R&D Vessel , the 25m 60ton stone KiteShip White Rose ( https://www.google.co.nz/maps/@-36.766848,175.4722841,39m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en  ) that behaves this way. When there's a full ebb tide running, that entrance rushes INTO the harbour at about 12kmph! Thought I'd lost my marbles and got the tides back to front when I first saw it! :o Very similar current venturi effect. 8)

I wasted my time doing a gif of the Bering closeup today. T.T beat me to it! ;D What a waste of Solar Electrickyharvestin! A bit short on supply this week.  ::) And Thar be no baby petroleums murdered for any purpose on this vessel, ARR to be sure! :) 

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 10:28:34 AM »
A close-up of the evolution of SST anomalies in Bering sea during past 30 days or so (from the DMI SST anomalies maps). Insolation and ocean currents make a difference there already.

Its less than 50m deep all along there. Whether or not its wind driven, its a current. And as SIS pointed out with his excellent animation a few days ago....
I think you are right about trouble. Big burst of warm SST was charging up the Russian coast for Bering.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 09:35:22 AM »
Lets try a homemade one rather than a NASA nasty.
Its quite stunning how fast the current is surging along there. I know that often warmer salty water slides in on the bottom through the Bering straight, while it can even be flowing out on the surface. Certainly if its Pacific water making it all the way along there, the offshore wind would blow the fresher lens away and help it surface.

Still not playing. is there a size limit?
I guess yes.  ::)


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 03:17:53 AM »
Not sure why that gif won't play ???

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 03:13:54 AM »
Interesting that this polynya that appeared about 1 week ago in ESS is about the only one within the Arctic proper not showing signs of refreeze. Why there?
Being April 22 big chances it will stay open.

I'm afraid you are seeing the result of a week long surge of warm nth pacific water coming thru Bering and rushing along the ESAS at up to 100km per day.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-04-22&z=3&v=-2342667.648686028,1311881.675158471,-1294091.6486860283,1843337.675158471&ab=off&as=2017-04-15&ae=2017-04-22&av=4&al=true

9
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the last year above 1m was 2016. 50/50 I Reckon.

reforestation and agricultural practices do not have the capability to remove CO2 fast enough so industrial activities must be engaged.  However there are chemical and technical processes for removing CO2 they do not exist are not currently in operation because we do not have a reimbursement mechanism to make them worthwhile.  I believe it would take a cost of carbon over $1,000 per metric tonne. 

Can't entirely agree with you there Jai. Widespread sugarcane and Kelp farming combined with pyrolysis and biochar soil remediation is both highly profitable and up to the job. Even if you just burn the Pyrolysis gas and liquid as fuel you can bury at least 100 tonC of carbon per hectare grown per year, eliminating fertilizer needs instantly and vastly improving soil productivity and health. The addition of the biochar to any soil will cause ongoing extra sequestration of fresh carbon, and a vast reduction in irrigation requirements. Sugarcane has over 1000x less water requirement than pasture anyway. Therefore up to 4x carbon negative energy can be achieved by anyone in their backyard with centuries old village level technology. In fact it is very easy and arguably also centuries old village level tech to use Pyrolysis oils as adhesives and timber treatment and coating systems. This allows substitution of steel and concrete construction systems with natural fibre/lumber/aggregate bioglue laminated beams, panels, and polymer concrete structural solutions. Far higher performance and lower cost than the extremely CO2 producing steel and concrete.
This immediately lobs you into 10x carbon negative territory. And rapidly back on the path to the several thousand tons C per hectare of living soil and above ground biomass that we used to have in our forests. Reduced to max 10-30 tons per hectare in todays agricultural practice. Here in New Zealand we have the worst environmental record per capita in the world. Over 900% deforestation in two centuries with over 20 million hectares reduced from about 2000 ton C pHa living biomass to 10 ton C/hectare. We are about 100 times as bad as Americans sad to say, in turning our living biomass in to CO2 polution of the air and oceans.
But if we do as suggested above with just 1 million hectares of our 25million land and 450million sea territory, we could sequester a couple of hundred million Ton C per year here and we are not a big country.
Why is it not happening? Big money won't do it because you cant patent it and hog all the power and profit. Small people are brainwashed into thinking that you can't do anything in this world without BIG MONEY.
False. The rich and powerful never change the world. Its always the little people.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« on: April 16, 2017, 01:21:07 AM »
Hmmm. With the kill zone extending all the way to FJL, and Bering and Nares etc also being very active, I wonder if the real toll might be closer to 3x what Frams been gobbling.
the other concern I have is how much of the surface water is being exported and lost with that Ice. the Ice may only average ¬2m, but is 10m or even 20m of low salinity water going along  with it?  ???

11
Antarctica / Re: Trends for the Southern Ocean
« on: April 12, 2017, 12:02:53 PM »
And so the southern ocean continues to steal the energy and moisture from the entire tropical pacific. And a close up of us being the meat in the sandwich. :o

They told us the last 2 events in the last month were 500 year floods. This ones already much worse. And the real stuffs coming tomorrow.  ;)

12
Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: April 12, 2017, 11:34:50 AM »
Documentary on Andrill with Rob DeConto and David Pollard on potential future sea level rise (from 45m34s onwards):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-_EECtAoRQ

Interesting. You can see how this process drives tectonics. The ice mass loss at the periphery causes depressurisation of the puddle of fluid water and carbonate rich magma that the continental fringes float on due to seafloor sediment subductions. This causes trench blockwise subsidence for example as per the 700km / 800km long stretches some 50 km wide that dropped ~30 metres in the Valdivia May 22, 1960 9.5 and Offshore Maule/Biobío February 27, 2010 8.8 events off Chile.
Simultaneously the increase in central Ice mass balance presurisses the ~500+ km deep superheated fluid basalt conduits that connect the continental keels to the midocean spreading zones. When you look at the repeat blockwise pattern of repeated ~50km wide food basalt sheets that spread out from the mid ocean trenches, and take note that the chemical composition of basalt formed is the same for thousands of km along the rifting zone, its clear that this is how it works. The seafloor is extruded in flood basalt pulses caused by the hydraulic pump of the ice sheet pistons, and blocks are simultaneously stacked under the continental fringes. Which is why the layers get younger as you go down. The heat, and tectonic mayhem released by these periodic isostatic overdrive episodes of course can cause large effect on sea levels and ice sheet stability ::)

13
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: April 12, 2017, 10:29:41 AM »
Cycles 57 and 49 (at ∼22.7 and 19.5 My ago), which are characterized by distinctly sawtooth-shaped ∼110-ky cycles, suggesting a causal link between cycle amplitude and asymmetry during the Early Miocene, but not during the MOGI. The distinctly asymmetric cycles suggest that the Early Miocene Antarctic ice sheets periodically underwent intervals of growth that were prolonged relative to astronomical forcing and then underwent subsequent rapid retreat in a manner akin to the glacial terminations of the Late Pleistocene glaciations, in which the large ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere were major participants (27, 28, 32). The highly asymmetric (sawtooth) nature of Late Pleistocene glacial−interglacial cycles is thought to originate from a positive ice mass balance that persists through several precession- and obliquity-paced summer insolation maxima. This results in decreasing ice sheet stability and more rapid terminations every ∼110 ky, once the ablation of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets increases dramatically in response to the next insolation maximum. The increase in ablation is caused by lowered surface elevation of the ice sheets resulting from crustal sinking and delayed isostatic rebound (33). Similar mechanisms are implied for the large Antarctic ice sheets of the OMT (∼22.5 My ago) but it is less clear why the smaller ice sheets of the Early Miocene (∼19.5 My ago) would exhibit this distinctly sawtooth-shaped pattern of growth and decay (Fig. 3).

As they point out here "delayed isostatic rebound" can be a factor in rapid ice sheet collapses. Though this is stated as causing rapid retreats through ablation, bottom melt processes could be a larger factor. Especially with Below sea level interiors like WA and Greenland. There is possibility here that this study, and even our data of the holocene deglaciation has even more rapid advance/ retreat behaviour smoothed out in published studies by preconceptions that have their root in the scientific consensus held until recently that major changes in large ice sheets take thousands of years to occur. Obviously data collected loses resolution with antiquity, and its not uncommon unfortunately for "anomalous" samples that don't fit the paradigm to be discarded and not even be mentioned in publication. As we appear to be learning that Atmosphere and ocean heat transport changes can produce large and rapid consequence, perhaps we should be considering the possibility that there may have been big Antarctic and Greenland melt backs in the meltwater pulses coming out of the last Glaciation. A process where the Laurentide and European Ice sheet melts trigger increased heat transport to poles via big storm systems caused by the temperature differentials in SSTs, then the process see-saws, causing a rapid meltback at the poles along with partial rebuilding of the L and E sheets via increased snowfalls caused by polar cyclone factories seems feasible. This would dampen the sea level changes as the 6x current total terrestrial ice sheet mass of 20ka bp crashed in several pulses over 10000 years to near current levels. Not a situation we currently can look forward to. With too much heat in the system the Temperate latitude caps can't build as the polar ones crash. But the runaway escalation of cyclone heat transport as Hansen's paper proposed for the end of the last interglacial 120 ka bp sure can. With the extra issues of far higher greenhouse burden and orbital forcings being more favourable to rapid meltings now.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 31, 2017, 01:11:25 AM »
Latest forecast runs suggests more high pressure dominated weather in the foreseeable future. If easterlies over Canadian Arctic will emerge we might get an early opening of the Beaufort Sea. Seems like temps should start to rise significantly soon as spring emerges northward.

The thin ice in Berings Sea will likely survive for another 10 days before a cyclone might smash through the ice with a significant reduction in sea ice extent.

Not so sure easterlies are likely or needed. The South-Southwest flow in the jets (red arrow and higher altitudes) being belt driven by this big nth pacific low is strong from ~1km altitude to over six. Looks likely this BIG hammerblow of warm wet air is going to get caught in it and run the Beaufort and CAA. The indigenous Totem Pole TerrorHawk over the great lakes is just a feint. And a warning. Hi Veli 8).
Reckon that Bering ice is just flush-mush Vader. Its been streaming out of the Bering and melting constantly. Good chance that cyclone will rip it up PROPER within a week. ;D

3km altitude winds and Total Precipitable Water at all altitudes per sqm:

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 30, 2017, 10:34:40 PM »
Lower down and temps at 1000hpa - a couple of hundred metres off the ground.
This flow seems about 1000km wide. Anyone care to estimate how much energy its dumping?
Thats probably snow on the water, not refreeze people are noticing. And with all the photons being emitted by the water vapour as it freezes in the sky, It would not even surprize me if there were melt ponds.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 30, 2017, 10:26:34 PM »
Seems like Laptev Sea will see temperatures briefly exceeding the freeze point in the next 24 hours. Questonable if there will be any precipitation in form of rain or sleet there.

Au contraire mon Ami  ::) . Snowing and sleeting its tits off I'm Afraid.

Its copping a roundhouse right hook from an Atlantic tropical water giant. below we have the images of 10kg/sqm flow of 100% relative humidity right up to at least 12km coming in off the continent at over 20 knots.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 27, 2017, 07:39:17 PM »
<snip; just this one time I've copied your off-topic rant to the What's new in Antarctica thread, next time I will remove your comment, keep it short and keep it to the point (ie the 2017 melting season); N.>

18
Arctic sea ice / Roundhouse punches from the ApocalyptoKraken
« on: March 27, 2017, 04:51:50 AM »
These Total Precipitable water maps look like theres seven water Giants wading Around the equator swinging tentacled fists under the cover of the jetsteam. In Nth and Southern Hemispheres each, three in the pacific, two per Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Every time the God Coriolis tries to deflect them, the following Kraken punches it back on course for the poles. The circulation has gone Feral! (or should that be Ferral?). Back flows seem to be at altitude. And Hadley seems history.

Quickstab at what this setup might mean numerically. Peer review and alternative approaches most welcome:
 ;)

1,680,000,000,000,000J
18.748 kg/sqm
200km x 50kmph (ballpark flow estimate) x 24hr = 240 000 sqkm = 240 000 000 000 sqm
240 000 000 000 sqm x 19 kg x 4200J = 19,152,000,000,000,000 Joules per day
=19.52 petajoules per day
Quote wikipedia:
"The petajoule (PJ) is equal to one quadrillion (10^15) joules. 210 PJ is equivalent to about 50 megatons of TNT. This is the amount of energy released by the Tsar Bomba, the largest man-made nuclear explosion ever."
"The gigajoule (GJ) is equal to one billion (10^9) joules. 6 GJ is about the amount of potential chemical energy in 160 L (approximately one US standard barrel) of oil, when combusted."
So about ten days of ApocalyptoKraken suckerpunches = 1 Tsar Bomba = 35 million Barrels of oil burned.
North pole at summer solstice gets 12.64 kWhrs per sqm. = 12.64 x 60mx 60s kJ / sqm = 45,504,000 J per sqm per day = 45 504 000 000 000J per sqkm per day.
19 152 000 000 000 000 / 45 504 000 000 000 = 420 sqkm of full midsummer insolation. About 4200sqkm of 10% absorbed as per bright white ice.
If we were to anticipate that in a few months time there might be twice as much water vapour per sqm incoming and 4000 km front of it crossing for flux calculation purposes, then it would be 80x this. So simular to 336 000 sqkm of normal midsummer insolation.
 (Neglecting other energy transported in the humid air of course. This probably of a far larger magnitude. Anyone want to do an estimate for the specific heat transport capacity of moist air column incoming, say flux area 1000km wide by 5km deep, velocity 50kmph?).

19
Arctic sea ice / pinning the tail on the donkey
« on: March 26, 2017, 01:15:59 AM »
Its pretty obvious that on the battlefield direct observations would benefit our understanding and eliminate a lot of uncertainty in the situation that satellite and models are creating.

Introducing the Maui Dolphin / Emperor Penguin data acquisition system. A little something I prepared earlier as a cheap and easy to manufacture and deploy ROV that can travel at up to 30kph and to ~150m depths with long term independent of pickup and maintenance capability due to solar and wave energy power generation. And surf riding high speed transit capability.
Dimensions as per namesakes.
 Estimated cost under $2000, sensors extra.
Anyone want to crowd fund some? Lets start a thread. We can make extra money by hiring them out to Webpilots in their sparetime. Moderator riding shotgun of course.  8)

20
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 25, 2017, 12:54:27 PM »
Little Inferno Just For Me

It's little inferno
It's little inferno just for me
I've got the fireplace
That burns at a hundred billion degrees
It's little inferno just for me

I've got these old toys
I've got this box of memories
We'll shove them in the fire
And breathe in the flaming potpourri
It's little inferno just for me

But I thought playing with fire was dangerous
Well you're right
But up out of your chimney
Way up in the sky
It's been snowing for years
And we just don't know why
Our world is getting colder
But there's no need for alarm
Just sit by your fire
Burn all of your toys
And stay warm

It's little inferno
It's little inferno just for me
I've got the fireplace
That burns at a hundred billion degrees
It's little inferno just for me

21
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 25, 2017, 12:29:34 PM »
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GP9_DQM2rwc

We've all been conned! The planets getting colder snd we just don't know why!

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 04:57:18 PM »
Meanwhile the circulations of the less visible stuff above at this point below.
850hpa ~1.2km , 500hpa ~6km , 70hpa ~18km , 10hpa ~30km

There appears to be now a hole right through the roof of the dawn.
The counterclockwise rotations are stacked from  sea level up to 30km over the Arctic lows. And even higher I suspect. Notice the temperature is at its lowest in the 30km altitude where I have marked the green circle at 70 and 10hpa altitudes. The stratosphere starts where the temperature is lowest and rises with altitude from there. This area above the Kara and Severny Island looks like it has the updrafts from the resident lows starting to shear away, but likely still rising at 30km up. Producing this cold spot due to expansion of the rising air. The 10hpa world looks completely different to a month or two ago. Then the coldest place was above the equator, and the warmest the poles. Now the opposite. Almost anyway, the warmest spot is where I've marked with the red squiggle on the 10hpa pic above the nth Pacific. A toasty -37C ! There appears to be a third stratospheric polar Vortex establishing at this point. Descending air from even higher up? There is a pretty warm big and deep low directly below it but in the 12-18 km altitude range at that location there's a very big jetflow sprawling out into the warmest region in the 12-18km atmosphere. Over CAA and Greenland.

Very stable and unbending rivers air below aligning with the big 3-18 km altitude 30 -70 degree nth or sth meandering jets that have established. Like the Southerly blast coming up the Atlantic from off Americas east coast ound 30deg nth thats been established for  days through the whole nth sea.
We had one like that 2 weeks ago in NZ. The easterly Trades just bent and came straight down off fiji 2500km nth of here. And met a river coming 3000km from the SSW straight up off Antarctica. No "weather systems" circulating, but A 100yr flood every night for 4 days.  And gale force winds without a cyclonic driver. :o

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:45:58 PM »
Nice Work SIS, you posted while I was typing,  :o

 
This is a wedge-like intrusion of ocean that is trying to reach the Bering Strait,

Looks like this surge is pumping a big flush out of Bering in that third Animation.
I've often wondered if there is a periodic resonance effect in the Bering in/out flows. If storm surges in from the atlantic side match the tidal resonance of the Arctic basin then it could make Bering look pretty interesting.  ::)

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:32:06 PM »
"...the Arctic turns into a single gyre"?

 There hasn't even been a gyre lately. Instead the ice in the Arctic Basin has been blown from the Russian side and compressed against the Canadian side, with some leaking out towards the Atlantic...

  The good news is that the compression has helped to heal the Beaufort Sea back to around a 2 metre thickness.

   But what if the tear-and-compression continues well into April or May? Will large stretches of water remain open on the Russian side, efficiently absorbing the peak insolation around the Summer solstice?

  A broader question is why so much compression? Is there enough thin and weak ice this year in the Arctic Basin that any wind pressure from the Russian side will always result in movement and compression? And is this movement replacing the Beaufort gyre of seasons past, with the ice now compressing rather than transferring the force for rotation?

   If so, does this mean that maximum Arctic sea ice volume for the year has descended this season to a transition value, or even a tipping point, where the ice will continue to tear-and-compress from the Russian side heading into the Summer melt season, with the Russian side therefore opening up anomalously early?

   Or, instead, will the movement damp down within a few weeks and those consequences won't come to pass this year?

   Either way, the plot twists and turns of the melt season are going to provide us with riveting viewing.

This looks a dangerous pattern indeed. If the anticlockwise forcing from low pressure systems continues then the chances of hot gulfstream water sweeping right around the top of europe onto the ESAS this summer are multiplied. This would effectively multiply the killing front where ice is being gobbled and surface low salinity surface waters are mixed away that has thus far been extending its grasp past Svalbard but blocked in recent years by FJL. If it gets well in place and a "pan Arctic CCW Gyre" sets up we could even see Pacific waters pumping in through Bering straight in Autumn to extend the Halocline killing front into a full Arctic Circle Whirlpool. ???

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 01:41:53 AM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

My quick and off the cuff list might be as follows:
1: What real world empirical  data can we trust regarding the state of the halocline. -once the besieged lower salinity surface waters are exported and corrupted by salt enrichment from the winter there can be no winter refreeze.
2: How much water vapour is smoking in to the zone on unforeseen atmospheric circulation systemic reformations. - as it phase transitions from vapour to liquid or even more so importantly from liquid to solid it emits photons in all directions, most importantly downwards, that are precisely the frequency for the reverse transition of water molecules in the reverse homily to elevate their energy level via a melt or boil.
3: How much export transport of ice out of the basin is current and ongoing, what salt/ water ratio is part of this equation,  with implications obvious for (1)


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 13, 2017, 07:04:06 PM »
@Hyperion
The circulation patterns over the Arctic match all the way up to 250 hpa, but change between there and 70 hpa.(If I am looking at it, wrong please correct me) If you have the mslp button on, while on Earth NS it makes it appear to match higher and will read wrong sometimes even after you turn it off. Still I find it pretty remarkable that the patterns match all the way up to jet stream height. Not saying that has never happened at all, but I don't recall seeing it. Anyone have a clue as to what this might mean?
The circulation exists anticlockwise over the arctic one and the Antarctic clockwise still at the 70hpa about 18km. Above that the arctic one has a clockwise up to 270 kmph vortex. Possibly its high altitude outflow. Certainly the only point in the 10hpa world colder than below it. But intermeshed is a raging anticlockwise spool winding in a jet from the equator that passes 1.5 times around the planet. I'm hypothesising a mechanism  may exist for that one assisting spawning the nth Atlantic new ones that keep forming directly beneath it.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 13, 2017, 10:43:27 AM »
The overall atmospheric circulations in both hemispheres are reminiscent of tropical cyclones with dual eyewalls. there only one significant low in each hemisphere right now. And they both seem to extend in height right up to near 10hPa - 30km altitude. The stratospheric set up over the nth atlantic seems to be dropping them like eggs to invade the arctic, and the helical infeed at high levels is beyond my ability to speculate on consequences. There seems very little cyclonic activity in either hemisphere outside of the big low pressure eyes in each. Im intrigued as to whether the high altitude east to west flow moving from the south, and now flirting with the equator is going to continue migrating north with the equinox passing and its twin u-turn outflows into the Nth hemisphere vortexes strengthen and consolidate.  Dumping southern summer energy on the northern polar system.
Anyone remember kansas? If this is a mode setting in solidly we might be in for desert zones from 35 sth to 35 nth latitudes. Looks like any tropical lows trying to form are getting their tops sheared off and stillborn. The Hadley cells losing the war.
We may have an explanation for why it was cosy for temperate climate critters, at least seasonally, in northern Europe, Siberia and Alaska after the big melt pulse 13KA BP. This sort of thing could have it very warm and wet in those places.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 12, 2017, 09:59:57 PM »
hmmm...
a few rough guesstimates calculated by various means are suggesting that with this constant motion and export of surface water and ice into a long polar basin kill zone with big wind and wave conditions mixing in with Gulfstream waters, we could have lost several metres of an arctic ocean wide fresher layer by export alone over the winter. And the constant refreezing of the exposed waters is of course releasing some brine but with so much motion I'd be surprized if this does anything but raise the salinity of the lens. Halocline collapse is looking likely. :'(

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: March 11, 2017, 09:11:35 PM »
250hpa 10km

70hpa 18.5km

10hpa 30km


30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: March 11, 2017, 09:03:15 PM »
Had to add an extension to chrome for the screenshots
1000hpa 100m

850hpa 1.5km

700hpa 3km

500hpa 5.5km




31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: March 10, 2017, 06:55:30 PM »
Anyone think that the Atmospheres circulations are looking strange? :o

 I'm interested that at all levels from 1km right up to thirty km the circulations seem to be stacking quite neatly above each other. ???

Has the troposphere/ stratosphere boundary lifted? The decrease in temp with altitude seems to be now continuing to between 18 km and 30 km darn near everywhere. Is there even a distinction between them anymore?  :-\

The ferocious planetwide mixing that seems to be establishing, particularly from 700 hPa 3km, right up to 10hPa, 32km has regions at both the poles only 25c below equatorial temps at the 3km altitude, and very close planetwide above that. A little warmer above the poles than the equator at 18km in fact.

I've been watching this closely over the past few days. Not an expert in this. Is it far from normal? Seems major changes are occurring almost daily.

temp s pole -45.8,  n pole -51.6, Eq -45.9  at 32km: 10 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=55.261,-82.453

temp s pole -47.3,  n pole -64.6, Eq -78.9  at 18.5km: 70 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=55.261,-82.453

temp s pole -48,  n pole -57.9, Eq -41.4  at 10km: 250 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=100.325,-87.117

temp s pole -40.4,  n pole -37.6, Eq -5.3  at 5.5km: 500 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=100.325,-87.117

temp s pole -41.3,  n pole -25.4, Eq  10.4  at 3km: 700 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=100.325,-87.117

temp s pole -32.6,  n pole -20.6, Eq 17.8  at 1.5km: 850 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=100.325,-87.117

temp s pole -25, n pole -31.1, Eq 27.2  at 100m: 1000 hPa
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/atlantis=116.25,13.27,130/loc=99.954,0.248

How do I lift screenshots from nullschool in chrome? anyone?

32
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: March 03, 2017, 12:17:46 PM »
Quite simply by going Pyrolysis to biofuel and biochar and biochem for construction, energy and soil restoration. Energy Canes, and Kelp as number one weapons for core ecology primary producers as they are super producers, but maximising biodiversity will maximise carbon uptake in your ecologies.

The above can achieve 10x carbon negative energy and construction with ongoing carbon sequestration and topsoil growth from the Terra Preta.

Increasing economic activity tenfold with 10x current levels of construction and energy consumption would then draw down 100 years of current CO2e emissions in one year.

Easy huh? all at least 100 year old Tech. So the problem is no patents or monopolies for the big boys. They unfortunately have been conned by accountants to believe they can hoard technology with patents so have been desperately looking for some new gimmick they can slap one on to do the job, which is ridiculous at the pace at which knowledge is advancing anyway. Lets get on with it. All together now. YAYHAAA!!!!  ;) Lets get gardening!!! on the land and in the sea!!!!

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2017, 04:22:29 PM »
Based on the behavior of this freeze season, the single most salient characteristic of the approaching melt season will be mobility of the ice. We have seen this all winter and it will only get more obvious.

The Atmospheric weirdness globally is whats fascinating me most. Which is I guess the Cause and in no small part also the symptom. The record drift velocities and lack of cohesion must be drawing up lots of heat from the warm Salty layers. The thermal transfer across the sub mixed surface layer halopause must be far larger than normal. Relative motion and increased surface area from waving both have potential for big conduction enhancements without even looking at mixing.
The nullschool imaging like this:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/atlantis=-36.90,182.05,130/loc=-129.803,-65.515
(not sure how to get that visible)
looks for all the world to me like a near collapse of polar and hadley cells in both hemispheres, with the Ferrel cells setting up as a single cell per hemisphere circulation. And the 250hpa cross equator flows feeding sthrn summer heat into the arctic winter over the pacific and africa, and the indian ocean returns dropping cold back into our single mid latitude jet whirlpool intrigue me. I've always thought that a single cell hadley was the only single cell dynamic possible. :-\  Though as long as there's much ice on Antarctica, I expect still it is in sthrn winter. Maybee hypertropie cyclones feeding big Antarctic low midwinter? :o

<a href="https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/atlantis=-36.90,182.05,130/loc=-129.803,-65.515" target="_blank" class="new_win">https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/atlantis=-36.90,182.05,130/loc=-129.803,-65.515</a>

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2017, 03:55:29 PM »
It is kind of nice being on the other end for a change. I usually get accused of being the dramatic one. Others are always telling me, "it's not that bad." Well, maybe it just is.

That being the case, excellent point made by Hyperion.


Thanks Tigertown...I think  :-\ I personally like to try and step back, take a Long and philosophical viewpoint, rather than the slightly chrono-NIMBY perspective of change being "bad" because its not what we are used to. And when I see stuff about pseudo-foehns bringing down warm air from altitude to drop 19C Temps on Iceland. I immediately start to ponder whether these big global graphics like Nullschool, pretty as they might look are missing a lot of local weather effects from to small to notice on such scale turbulence effects. And how much snow interleaved with rain and super-cooled liquid water dropping thru near surface subzero  air onto that snow to form ice layers might have been going on in the early freeze season. There may have been some very warm and moist jets coming in at altitude in the cyclones even right through the freeze season that don't jump out and say "look at me!" in altitude integrated TPW. And these satellites probably only can distingush surface texture, Not whats under a few mm of shiny ice crust. ::)

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 15, 2017, 06:02:09 PM »
Norwegians have nicked the polar vortex to provide wind for electricity generation  for their electrical vehicles programme. Mind you, they are also opening up new oil fields in the Barents.

If they make some Giant Seacrete ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biorock ) or Geopolymer ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolymer )
 heat exchangers instead of concrete oil rigs....

 They could make enough electricity to power all the worlds transport needs by putting turbines on heatpipes  ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pipe ) to transfer the heat from the gulfstream up to the south of Greenland meltpool. Put the brakes on this 10x anthro GG global warming effect from the meltpool reducing outgoing long wave over a large area of the earths surface and causing an accelerating runaway greenland melt. And the cyclone canon of the adjacent hot and cold surface waters building up from current ww2 bren gun level that produced 60ft swells in the north atlantic to the 100,000 year ago style revolving six barrel 100mm autogun version, (or even worse considering the much faster rate of change we have triggered) that sent 200 ft waves right across the north Atlantic Ocean to throw 10m plus boulders 6 kms inland and 50m above sea level onto ridgetops in the bahamas.
 Assuming that Hansen and Co's paper before paris had any validity of course.  ::)

I love heatpipes  8)
No moving parts and they have achieved greater per area energy fluxes than the surface of the sun with them in the lab.

 You could even electrolyse the co2 out of the sea and air into hydrocarbon fuel for transport purposes. Then shift reaction the energy into liquid hydrogen later for transport fuel, and sequester the C as char or engineering polymers.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 15, 2017, 05:36:26 PM »
Somewhat strong export over the next week. It is already hurting the concentration in the ESS and Chukchi, due to what has been pushed out to the Bering Sea.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE


Are these thickness plots still being based on 10% freeboard or what ever similar figure is historically used for old fashioned firstyear ice? Eg/ where they are graphing 2m thick is it based on satellite measurements of  ~0.2m freeboard?
 I'm concerned that the real density might be significantly lower. if its mostly snow and  rotten honeycomb with thin ice crusts interleaved, it could be as low as 0.5 kg/litre which would make 0.2m freeboard actually ~0.4m thickness. And the blowtorch like melts in the killzone fram / svalbard / bering areas certainly look to me like what you would expect from thin and rubbish quality ice. Not solid 2m thick berg.  ???

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Slow Transition
« on: February 13, 2017, 03:03:23 AM »
There's probably not a heck of a lot of reliability in cryosat, piomass or any basic fdd based estimates. the rules of the game have been changing so fast. The ice quality is rubbish and is far less thermally conductive than it used to be, and lower in density. Meaning that freeboard measurements by satelite are almost certainly overstating the actual thickness when the models assume that the submerged thickness is simular to what it used to be. Porous rotten ice, interleaved, snow layers and ice crusts from flash surface melts and supercooled water hitting the surface and flash freezing as per standard ice storm scenarios will all cause massive conductivity reduction. And its pretty certain that theres been major reduction in the low salinity layers integrity over the whole arctic ocean. we would be foolish to put any faith in models like mercantor for halocline and temperature at depth profiles without extensive direct measurements to back them up. Even if there is still a distinct boundary between surface water  and warmer atlantic/ pacific water below, the effects of all the slosh and wave action now going on will be assisting a lot of heat to soak upward into the surface layer making serious increase in underice roughness, and therefore surface area that will make it all the more vunerable to rapid melt out later in the season. :(

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 12, 2017, 09:50:48 PM »
Anyone here suffering from Mortality Salience?  ::) Planetry MS sure is a biggy for most. they do anything to distract themselves from having to think about it. ;)

Quote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_salience
"Potential to cause worldview defense[edit]
Mortality salience has the potential to cause worldview defense, a psychological mechanism that strengthens people's connection with their in-group as a defense mechanism. Studies also show that mortality salience can lead people to feel more inclined to punish minor moral transgressions. One such study divided a group of judges into two groups—one that was asked to reflect upon their own mortality, and one group that was not. The judges were then asked to set a bond for an alleged prostitute. The group that had reflected on mortality set an average bond of $455, while the control group's average bond was $50.[4]
Another study found that mortality salience could cause an increase in support for martyrdom and military intervention. Tom Pyszczynski et al. found that students who had reflected on their mortality showed preference towards people who supported martyrdom, and indicated they might consider martyrdom themselves. They also found that, especially among students who were politically conservative, mortality salience increased support for military intervention, but not among students who were politically liberal.[5] "

from Terror management theory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terror_management_theory :

"  TMT is derived from anthropologist Ernest Becker's 1973 Pulitzer Prize-winning work of nonfiction The Denial of Death, in which Becker argues most human action is taken to ignore or avoid the inevitability of death. The terror of absolute annihilation creates such a profound – albeit subconscious – anxiety in people that they spend their lives attempting to make sense of it. On large scales, societies build symbols: laws, religious meaning systems, cultures, and belief systems to explain the significance of life, define what makes certain characteristics, skills, and talents extraordinary, reward others whom they find exemplify certain attributes, and punish or kill others who do not adhere to their cultural worldview. On an individual level, self-esteem provides a buffer against death-related anxiety."

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 12, 2017, 09:27:20 PM »
Don't forget acidification making it impossible for fishes and shellfish and crustaceans  to produce shells for their eggs or the young to form skeletons. Already stopped the mussels being able to reproduce on around 1/4 of New Zealand's coastline. You need to electrify reefs to overcome it.   :(

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 12, 2017, 08:05:51 PM »
"My goal with the paper is to describe just how exposed the department is to climate change crisis."

 ::)
About as exposed as a piece of photographic film wrapped around a fuel rod in a candu reactor.

This planet needs periodic defrost cycles or permafrost and deepsea hydrocarbon reservoirs build up to dangerous levels that could trigger a venus style runaway greenhouse event that boils the oceans and leaves us with 100 atmospheres of pressure and temperatures that would melt lead at sea level. This has been happening on an approximately 150my cycle here for the last billion years. The worst crash, from the perspective of the critters in residence from a glaciated phase, which usually lasts around 50my to a hothouse earth where mostly reptiles and insects are happiest, in this time, was the end Permian event 250 million years ago. but at that time we had one super-continent, Pangaea, with a small icecap at one end, and potential for permafrost carbon and deepsea clathrates was undeniably much less than our current situation. And the current crop of apes have triggered a defrost far more rapid in progress than ever before. Keep your chin up  ;D its a privileged position to be around to witness such a rare event. whether its the death of a planetary biosphere or the critters with the brains to grab the reins and steer the cart away from the cliff actually doing it. Science is hamstrung by only being allowed to speak about the past with certainty. and is yet to recover from bullying by the fossil trolls, so is speaking in over conservative terms about future predictions. The Chinese write crisis with two symbols. One means danger, the other opportunity. Its a good idea to look for the silver lining that generally is hidden in most dark clouds. Order is stagnant chaos is fertile. You are either green and growing, or ripe and rotting.
 8)

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 11, 2017, 12:04:31 PM »
Stupid question follow on...

What is the estimate for the total flow into and out of the Arctic basin, in KM3 of water?

The reason I ask is, salt purge out of freezing ice is only going to be a small fraction of the volume of ice melted (which is going to be less than 6000 or so KM3 a season).  If we presume 10% of that - or 600KM3/year, what fraction would that be of the total circulation?

Point I'm making here is, is the refreeze really what's driving the circulation?

According to wikipedia total flow out of the Arctic is about 11 Sverdrups.

( A sverdrup) is equivalent to 1 million cubic metres per second (264,000,000 USgal/s). The entire global input of fresh water from rivers to the ocean is equal to about 1.2 sverdrup.

Therefore a Sverdrup is equivalent to 1/1000th of a Km^3. So  in a day the outflow is approx 8640 * 11 / 1000 Km^3. per day so about 95 Km^3 per day. The inflow from rivers would be at best 100th of this so the rest must come from the Atlantic and Pacific.

600Km^3 therfore amounts to  about 2% of the flow.

Does anyone get any devious notions from numbers like this or is it just me.  ;)

specific heat capacity of water = 4.2 kj/kg/K
~42 000 000 000 000 kJ per day for 1% of flow out of arctic ocean (~100km^3) at 10k difference
= 486 000 000 kw = 486 000 megawatts = 486 gigawatts
world = 5 terawatts = 5million megawatts
therefore 10% of flow is equal to world electricity consumption
Irminger Current 11- 27 sverdrup = 11m-27m cubic m per sec.

Wouldn't it be nice to heat the greenland low salinity meltpool with gulfstream waters so it can radiate heat away, and not cause these cyclone canons? And thereby cool the Salty hot stuff to preserve overturning, but keep it south of the faroes- iceland ridge so it dinae get up north where its truble?.  :o  8)  ???
Anyone heard of heatpipes?

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