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Messages - Hyperion

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: Today at 02:10:49 AM »
Looking at 2017A and 2017B's melt rate graphically: 2017A, located in the Beaufort side of the CAB, IMHO should finish melting in 1-2 weeks. It is ~350km deep inside the pack but in a region of 75% concentration on the Bremen maps, a region which might disappear quickly if the buoy's floe is typical.
2017B between the pole and Fram seems like it could survive the season with its current melt rate. It is now ~300k deep inside the pack, at a region of 75-100% concentration. It is moving south at an average ~35km per week (highly variable), and its melt rate might increase sharply if it encounters Atlantic waters.


Yes, well itp95 is in the same place and its showing a significant rise in Salinity and temperature.


Also big plummet in dissolved oxygen suggests upwelling from depth.


I make it about here and its looking very loose and vulnerable to me.
Remember that the gulfstreams been deprived of its ability to evaporate water vapour and lose heat because of lack of Atlantic hurricanes last year, and being under a lid of fresher meltwater since off New York. Its probably hotter and fresher than we've ever recorded before and may be much more buoyant than anyone is expecting.
Second image about 150 by 300km

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 11:37:13 PM »



2017A

ID Code: 300234063536320
Date: March 9, 2017 - Present
Type: SIMB
Initial Location: Beaufort Sea
Deployment: UW-WARM Array
Co-located Instruments: 50m WARM Buoy, Side Kick Web cam, ICEX Drifting buoy, SVP

Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):

Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm


Current Buoy Data (07/24/2017):

Pos: 76.99 N, 150.75 W

Air Temp: -1.9 C
Air Pres: 1002.7 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/24/2017)

Snow depth : 0 cm
Ice thickness : 38 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)

All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 33 cm

Ice Bottom Melt : 43 cm

Status of Instrumentation:

All Sensors reporting
A couple Spurious Snow depths after snow on 4/14/17
Many bad Sounder Readings after 7/5/17

A week ago:

Ice thickness : 56 cm [down from 79 in week to 17 july]
Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 30 cm
Ice Bottom Melt : 32 cm

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 11:31:37 PM »
2017B

ID Code: 300234062836680
Date: April 10, 2017 - Present
Type: SIMB
Initial Location: Central Arctic
Deployment: Barneo - WHOI
Co-located Instruments: AOFB, ITP 95, Ice-T

Conditions at Deployment (4/10/2017):

Snow Depth: 2 cm
Ice Thickness: 169 cm


Current Buoy Data (07/24/2017):

Pos: 84.83 N, 7.77 W

Air Temp: -0.5 C
Air Pres: 1011.4 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/24/2017)

Snow melt : ALL cm
Ice thickness : 124 cm

Since Deployment (04/10/2017)

Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 21 cm

Ice bottom melt : 45 cm

Results from a week ago were:
Ice thickness : 142 cm [down from 155 in week to 17th july]

Since Deployment (04/10/2017)
Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 14 cm
Ice bottom melt : 36 cm

Whether or not there is melt holes around these buoys. One interesting thing I noticed on their page was the historic data from all the previous buoys showed more surface melting than bottom melt. This seems to have changed. And it dosn't look so much like there has been less surface melt than historically. Its just we are getting more bottom melt now. I suppose with hotter and less saline gulfstream and pacific waters coming in than ever before, and the surface of the Beaufort gyre showing every sign of collapse to a anticlockwise rotation there must be significantly more subsurface heat available.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 10:30:07 PM »
Regarding thin smoking paper.
Some clearer images just out in the last hour from Terra modis of the Nares strait, north of Greenland to north of Ellesmere Island.

This Piomass bank of 3-4m thick ice, our bestest most likelyest to survive of all?

Its not blue /grey from meltponds, its so thin you can see the sea thru it and is melting right out before it makes it 100km down Nares strait.

Its a slurry of salt ice slush and floating snow with a few old remnants embedded in it.
And its starting to flush through all the CAA channels.

Looking like we are already below all previous Sept volume minimums.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 24, 2017, 07:30:52 AM »
Well, both hycom and polarportal seem to think these Buoys were in thinner than the average Ice thickness in these areas of floes and rubblefields.

If this is not because they are in particularly puny Floes then we have less ice volume than perhaps even the 5000 cubic km less than piomass says, that one of our chaps Calculated a couple of weeks back from one of these thickness products. Particularly since about half the extent area seems to be slush and rubble.

Losing a third of its thickness in a week to the 17th, I won't be surprised if 2017A in the Beaufort is ice-free by now a week later.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:37:36 AM »
I don't know where if anywhere to find the sensor string data. But:


2017A
Date: March 9, 2017 - Present
Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):
Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm

Current Buoy Data (07/17/2017):
Pos: 76.84 N, 152.71 W
Air Temp: -2.4 C
Air Pres: 1019.1 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/15/2017)

Snow depth : 0 cm
Ice thickness : 56 cm [down from 79 in week to 17 july]
Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 30 cm
Ice Bottom Melt : 32 cm

[seems this one gained 33cm of ice after 9 march, then lost 62cm]

2017B
Date: April 10, 2017 - Present
Conditions at Deployment (4/10/2017):
Snow Depth: 2 cm
Ice Thickness: 169 cm

Current Buoy Data (07/17/2017):
Pos: 84.91 N, 4.99 W
Air Temp: 0.2 C
Current Ice Observations (07/17/2017)

Ice thickness : 142 cm [down from 155 in week to 17th july]

Since Deployment (04/10/2017)
Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 14 cm
Ice bottom melt : 36 cm

[seems this one gained 23cm of ice after 10 April, then lost 50cm]

Status of Instrumentation:
All Sensors reporting well

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 03:49:48 AM »
Yeah TT that gives a much more approachable view of what we have overall. What pixel size on worldview did you start with? 1km? 5km? Or have you smaller blocks with the full 250m available resolution?
We could start a thread where volunteers  team up with territories assigned, archive frames, and just clip the visible areas out for each tile . Then layer those. and perhaps cheat a little with a bit of clone brushing to fill in the holes.
Its pretty easy with the Lassoo tool and control and shift keys on my oldschool paintshop pro4 to do that. Dunno about others apps.

tried a few of psp tools on it. Only thing I could do that might have brought out a little detail thru the clouds was max the colour saturation and a slight contrast boost.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 02:44:04 AM »
Nice pictures Veli. Darn that stuff looks translucently thin.

Further to my above analysis of Gyre and halocline issues.

Wipneus great Gif of the Kara 6-21 July borrowed from the Homebrew thread. You can see the drift repeatedly pulsing eastward and spiting chunks south to the right at the coast by watching the features. An effect visibly here operating deep into the pack.



And A-team has a great pic of 20-25 July Ice drift forecast on Piomass thread. showing the pattern thats been in effect for some time now, preserving extent on all the peripheries, while the more mobile meltwater is evicted thru the CAA and Fram.

Basically the Extent and Area figures have been getting held up by a pack repeatedly exploding outwards, while it covers the basin with an increasingly fragmented field of smaller and smaller floes and chunks of slushier and thinner and more dispersed rubble. Its primed for a crash with the first big cyclone, or even with a few little ones.

Take a good hard look at the salinity charts for ITP95 from pole to 85 sth of Svalbard, and ITP97 across the centre of the eastern basin.
There is really only 25-50 m at most of a little fresher water on the surface left. And only a few percentage points of salinity below the stuff underneath it. Its primed to form a cohesive layer hundreds of metres thick incapable of freezing in winter.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 12:15:37 AM »



-9°

Contrails like those you spotted are common in the high Arctic and often show up on worldview. Sometimes they form X patterns, other times they are 1000+km in length. I know of no source that assesses the environmental or weather impacts of Arcticcontrails. If posters are aware of linkable articles on Arctic contrails, I'd be much obliged for posting of such links. I'm not here speaking about the conspiracy theory links. Those are easy to find.

I wish They'd send us some Pics. It looked like a military formation to me.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 11:54:45 PM »
The lows don't protect the Centre of the pack if the Ice drift in the Beaufort is anticlockwise as they promote dispersion. If the Clockwise gyre is fading near the surface or thinner ice incapable of feeding on its current then the pack is being wind driven anticlockwise and everything wants to fling itself outwards. While the lows continue to draw in warmth and moisture from far away.

The loose stuff that's survived melting out as its flung out in the ESS and Chukchi for example has been pushed into the Beaufort.  The melt-water main exit route is down the Coasts of Greenland, and through the CAA Which has Just mobilized in all channels. And  and the big SSTA anomaly south and west of Greenland is the Evidence.
Note the Big push of hot gulfstream along the western coast of Russian Arctic, and the below normal temps from the meltwater being flung at the coast past where its got to.
And in the Chukchi how the Pacific inflow is accelerating and pushing along the nth Alaskan coast, while meltwater is being flung against the Beaufort coast in the corner against the CAA.

People hope these wider spread cooler surfaces will protect the central pack, but they stop the heat being released from the incoming stuff below. And the central pack is being shredded and opened up with more bottom melt and more surface area exposed to air and water and more mixing of near surface air and water. The claim that lower average temps over the pack are Evidence to promote theories that the Ice is in a recovery year, while it is actually Evidence of increased energy being taken up by Ice melting and more exposed and more turbulent water in active rubblefields.

The Halocline is disintegrating by enhanced Ekman pumping from surface drift in the opposite direction to the warmer waters below. And increased warm inflow and fresh melt eviction.

And that big plug of low density warm water that I drew attention  to above that's been pushed down in the central eastern basin, due to the high pressure core effect of a clockwise gyre? Its becoming Increasingly FREE to bob up like a cork and melt and disperse the central pack in a big flushout from below.

   ....
As for the effects on the Beaufort Gyre and Ice.
   ....

Much as I appreciate your thorough analysis and accompanying graphics, I'm having trouble piecing it all together.  Yes, the Arctic is in for considerable heat and moisture advection from the Pacific.  But won't this be mitigated by the lows protecting areas of the central ice pack?

   ....
That which is there will all be flinging itself out through the CAA and down both coasts of Greenland ...

I don't see much indication of this in the next week or so.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 02:11:08 PM »
The Typhoon autogun in the Pacific and the effects on the Beaufort gyre dynamics have been giving me a very sick feeling in my gut the last 24hrs. It looks very ugly indeed what is unfolding.
 First Animation:
 Total Precipital Water and surface winds,
 Winds at 1000hpa,
 Temps and winds at 850hpa,
 3hr precipitations of 6mm over the the outer CAA and 850hpa winds,
 and total cloud water simular to the record flood last week in Japan nth of Barrow with 700hpa winds.
 This Junks looking to continue for some time with south and west winds from Norway to Chukchi to Greenland coastal. If not dumping lots of water vapour into the basin, its making hot foehn winds off Europe, Siberia, Alaska, the CAA, and Greenland. And pushing warm Pacific and Atlantic waters in at accelerated rates.

As for the effects on the Beaufort Gyre and Ice.
The Eastward surface drift from all these Westerly's, is and will continue to disperse the loose fringes and fresh meltwater to the right, de-consolidating the pack and exposing the meltwater and river Fluxs to rising salinity by mixing with the inbound waters they are riding over above the shallow continental shelves. Bottom structure and Methane venting will enhance this of course.
First frame shows:
- Along with Pacific end SST anomalies, marked where the spreading meltwater is butting up against the still eastward moving pacific waters east in the ESS and a strong and large mixing vortex in process. These are popping up all along the meltwater front and the Strong inflow through Bering has in the last few days swung from heading in that direction to straight ahead towards the pole sliding down the slope under the Chukchi front, to bending to the east and heading for the CAA along the shelf instead.
Second Frame:
- SST of 10.7C on strong inflow Thru Bering just mentioned. Mixing Vortexes even clearer. Clockwise rotating Pacific water bending northward as its sucked under anticlockwise rotating melt and debris intent on escape from the pack and heading south, you gotta expect them.
Third Frame:
- 1.72m swells eastbound, against current, into the Beaufort pack and CAA. Slightly bigger ones actually heading straight north into the pack from Bering in the Chuckchi.
Fourth  Frame:
- Track log plots of ITP buoys 97 in the Beaufort and 95 at 85nth heading for Fram.
Fifth  Frame:
- Observe the deep core of fresher water penetrating the hHalocline surface to depth in the lefthand ITP 97 plot. Deep mixing events on its fringes. This the Gyres "flywheel", a large reserve to maintain the Halocline, in the middle of the Canadian basin. Not much disturbance in the Temperature plots above it. A little warming and thinning  of the Gulfstream Layer it penetrates from energy extracted as its feeds have punched through. About 0.5 degrees warmer and around 1% saltier than the Layer above the Atlantic from about 300m to 50m from the surface. Though recently the surface temp has spiked to just below Zero as we've noticed on the Buoys thread. ITP 97 seems to be in the fringes of the pack where the deep Gyre ramps up the Alaskan slope Right about in the middle of this
Frame 5, today's worldview shot.
-ITP 97 right about in the middle.
Frame 6 shows the westbound current coming up here at 0C.

So anyway, the Gulfstream water that has been surfacing at 15-16C around, Svalbard and FJL, and just loves to hug the right by the Right Hand Rule of mr Coriolis North.
 Should it not meet Pacific, and surface stuff head on at Severnaya Zemlya thats Westbound as traditional in a high pressure dominated Eastern Basin. Keen to take it by the hand and ride it out off the shelf into the deeper basin...
Perhaps Gulf Snake will be fresh and warm enough to climb on top, or even socialise a little with Pacific eel. Assisted by big late snow-melts and an open Russian coast, and a slide beneath a few thousand km of fresh melt pool south of Norway.
With a largely Low pressure dominated east with a reversing Gyre, and Cooler inbound stuff from a full or partial anticlockwise deep salty racetrack that it can team up with and python coil the heart of the Ocean.
Then instead of a big reserve of low density fresh pycnocline pushed down in the middle of the eastern Basin.....
 That which is there will all be flinging itself out through the CAA and down both coasts of Greenland , as the Turbo Pump from both Oceans swirls all around squeezing it out from below.
I'm deeply worried that this is starting already. :-\  ???  :P

-

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 22, 2017, 02:55:50 AM »
It has a bit. We have just lost a lot of rubble melted out between fram and the pole. There looks to me like a fairly large loss in the thickness of the overall fresher layer. And a ridging up of salinity to depth. Possibly just its location.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 22, 2017, 02:34:48 AM »
Hyperion,
I like what you are attempting.  I would 'wish', somehow, that the larger floes (maybe 10-20 percent of total area, depending on size criteria) could be made entirely ice-white.  Right now, they are all melty-black speckled, some approaching half-black.  I think this exaggerates how advanced the melt is.

Yes, this is a very valuable contribution. But Hyperion should not push the contrast too hard. I have a lot of experience with Photoshop and alike: These images after all are pretty low resolution 8bit – there's a point of no return where you loose more than you gain (which, by the way, somehow fits our topic here  :o).

Sure. this was just a couple hours of trivial experimentation. It wouldn't be too hard to code a custom filter that did a pass where pixels that were surrounded by high luminosity ones were translated as pure white on a second image. If you tiled it you may be able to estimate rubble concentrations by luminousity comparisons with coherant nearby floes. You could probably also use hue and luminosity to mark melt ponds. It'd be nice to scan terra, aqua, and suomi imagesets with an algorithm that compared their infra red bands to automatically pick out holes in the cloud cover, and combine all the visible windows from the three. But by the time we got very far with it there would probably be no Ice left to look at. ::) Be lovely to be able to estimate total floe area, meltpond area, rubble area for the whole arctic,  and by building up a picture of the whole basin over 1-2 weeks, tracking floe movements .... Lots of fun. But perhaps putting the energy into damage limitation might be better. This year or five from now is big trouble for all life on earth. We know its going. We need to be putting brakes on it and working out how to get it back. Much harder than if we'd acted rather than ostriching in the first place. But Doable.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 22, 2017, 02:15:58 AM »
Youch!  I've just been watching on  Nullschool the two westernmost Pac Typhoons merge into a real whopper off Japan on the 25th. We've already been seeing inch per day rain in the last few days Nth of the CAA. And I'm estimating incoming water roughly equally coming in from Atlantic and Pacific ends of around 10 cubic km a day. Thats been releasing enough latent heat to melt 100 cubic km of ice. The reason we haven't been seeing a view of areas with lots of slushy rubble is the fogbanks condensing from all the heat transfer that the slushy state can provide. a lot of the heat warms air and rises of course. And before escaping at altitude it forms ice cloud that is very very bad for ice preservation because it lets most of the solar energy come in but insulates outgoing longwave very well. Simularly with large droplet size in fog and thunderclouds This whole cycle is self reinforcing as the more updraft and high altitude exit, the more low level warm air and moisture comes in. Only when most of the slush disappears from around the more resilient floes, or where there is a decently compressed pack is the capacity for thermal transfer low enough for us to expect to have clear skys. People keep hoping that all the clouds will preserve the ice. Its faster to boil a potato than to bake it. And faster to steam it than boil it. Water vapour at or below boiling point is a very effective heat transfer vehicle to colder objects. The Area receiving insolation at in the arctic ocean is puny compared to what it can draw in heat from with a slushy salt-ice heat sink to attract it.
And the southerly's in Fram are very bad with this over 15 degree gulf stream water surfacing there. That waters submerging about as far south as Spain, directly south of Greenland. It may even be less Saline hence lighter for its temp and easier mixed with the polar surface water than we are used to. Sliding under the nth Atlantic melt pool as it is there is bound to be some mixing and energy exchange.

Check out the Super-Bar claw marks nth of Greenland. About a km apart and 100km long. The Polar bear god getting grumpy?

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 10:02:28 PM »
And the rest. If Piomass or Hycom or whoever are counting lots of volume between Svalbard and the pole then They've blink and missed it. This stuff is auguring. Like the Russian and Pacific front also. The rubble fields between the floes that we there everywhere 3 days ago are largely open sea now. Probable around 0.5 sea the rest floes and rubble in the above and these Svalbard/ frams to pole below.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 09:54:09 PM »
Clockwise from the East Siberian sea to the CAA. Filenames are fairly explainatory as to exactly where. No Images on the most packed region off CAA yet but best peeks thru the clouds since 17th.
21st July:

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 21, 2017, 01:21:46 PM »
I've been fannyin around with attempts to group what little visible stuff there is on worldview into saneish buckets to give a bit of a grip on what actually is there under the clouds and limited resolution of microwave data acquisition processes.
No scientific repeat-ability here. completely at the mercy of what image enhancement and bias I might have a whim to invoke in trying to filter out clouds and weight the value of slush between obviously coherent solid bergs. What relative value should I try to impose on slush fill between them? Heres an example from 85 nth last week in a mostly gap in the clouds at about 85 nth of fjl. I grayscaled. upped contrast and brightness and after experimenting with this a few times settled on a heavy handed sharpening filter to avoid losing all the between floes slush. Bucketing binary fashion into ice and not is obviously cheap and nasty and neither consistently repeatable in any sort of comparable fashion. Or reputable as any kind of standardized method considering the huge variability of cloud fog and slush density and thickness you gotta look at. So pure experiment really. and a n excuse to play with the rasp-pi and risc-beeb-basic that i was always jealous of my early eighties mates who had the  fortune to be equipped with. Damn I forgot how finicky and resource limited computers back then actually were. I haven't coded for years and memory and processing speed are like trillions of times what I used to enjoy. Anyway. any attempt at a fair count on reasonably clear images is getting me between 15 and 30% coherent floe area. The rest ranging from undeniable open water to slushfields of highly speculative chunk-size, density and longevity.
IMO generous concentration figure from this relatively heavy handed but imo fairly balanced mauling 0.415. and recognizable floe area here and everywhere else I've spanked with this ham 15-25%

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 03:01:27 AM »
I also have this feeling that holes could start to show up in the ice pack real fast, once they get going. But for now, this year isn't looking anything like 2016, 2015, or even 2013. Here's a comparison using Uni Hamburg AMSR2 sea ice concentration maps:

Whats been driving me quite bananas over the last few week is how rare it seems to be to get anything but a few tiny gaps in the clouds to see what the ice really looks like. And whats been most teeth nashing of all is that its been so darned unlucky that these few and far between gaps found by any of the Nasa cameras are by some mysterious phenomena of nature almost always only found over spots where these concentration maps show a few nibbles less than 100% concentration.

I guess for some reason the sky are always cloudy over good secure well packed Floe Fields.  ::)
So anyway, best I can find is comparisons between 19 july 2016, 19 August 2016, and 19 July 2017. In the area polewards of Severnaya Zemlya.
But then I realised to my great Joy that I had an app available that in less than 5min could almost completely overcome NASAs inability to see through clouds! ;D YAY! descent into madness averted! ;)

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 09:13:03 PM »
ITP95, at 85 north roughly between Svalbard and the pole appears to be experiencing some mixing in the last week. Near surface Salinity rising, Temp dropping in the 50-80m range. Looks like some halodecline may be occuring from the waves penetrating the pack.



Bit of a drop in Dissolved oxygen here too. Has to be rising Hypoxic deep water surely?


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 20, 2017, 08:29:15 PM »
Wow. Largely compacting wind conditions and solid cloud cover, yet big purple blotches showing dropping concentration all through the heart of the pack. And 360 area and 240 extent in 48 hours.
So much for clouds preserving the Ice. If all those Typhoons in the Pacific start lobbing themselves into the fray it might get very messy indeed.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 08:04:41 PM »
The Pacifics looking interesting. 8 hurricanes beaded from Japan to Panama. Quite a lot for this early in the season. Greedy looking settup dragging all the tropical air from Africa to Mexico and throwing it up the Asian coast. Looking at the 250hpa jets the polar jet has thrown out an arm and hybridised the second one from the left already. Bizzare cross equatorial backflows south at that level also.

850hpa with MSLP, and 250hpa with TPW

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 12:20:37 PM »
Well I make it somewhere about here. Some 5-600km offshore. Probably the riverine hypothesis as a stab in the dark. Might be the dirty fresh is nosing in between the deep Atlantic and shallower pacific warm layers, and dropping organic sediment through the deeper stuff thats consuming the oxygen, before surfacing. Wild guessing game really. Still could be methane from the pile of muck stacked by plate movement against the shelf. Mostly dissolved at depth. Fizzing and bubble expansion as it nears surface. So less disturbance of the Atlantic warm and salty than the Pacific layer.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 11:35:39 AM »
Hey. who knows? we've only got one buoy that to be honest is providing data difficult to trust with the huge discrepancies between down and up logs. If its using the pretty standard halogenated aluminium opto-fluorescence  DO sensors they are usually very reliable and provided they are not starved for water flow (can't imagine such engineering incompetance personally) should only have a lag of less than a minute to respond to changes. Is it possible that a big subduction zone thermogenic methane plume is consuming all the oxygen, without disturbing the halocline massively? IMHO more plausible than an actual hydrothermal upwelling. And I just can't see how any current interaction with a 3km deep bottom could produce a signature like this. The only other possibility that I can suggest is its a cold fresh meltwater pulse from Alaskan rivers that has let the sediment mass settle out of it, become more buoyant, mixed, warmed, and consumed the oxygen from the water its rising through by breaking down its dissolved organic carbon burden as it surfaces. Velis giant beaver phenomenon. I've been meaning to get a hires bathometry chart and overlay the Buoy track. Maybe in the morning. If there's a canyon  outflow from a major Alaskan river descending the slope there this could be it. We have a submerged 3000+km long river system called the Kaikoura canyon in NZ that was carved by ice age sediment laden glacial melt outflow that leaves the east coast of the south island and has been traced to 2500km nth east of the east cape of the north island over 4km deep on the abyssal plain. Huge canyon maze thats crawling with giant squid where it drops off the continental shelf. Such things can happen.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 05:20:32 AM »
A fair amount of rain lining up with warm 850 mb temperatures today.

Yer. And quite heavy over the best stuff we got north of the CAA too!
 :'(

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 05:14:24 AM »
Heres a look at the Atlantic side 2015,2016,2017. SSTs and currents

To me there actually seems to be more gulfstream inflow this year than the two preceding. And definitely a lot more meltwater eviction down both of Greenlands coasts. and a substantial cold meltpool establishing this year to the south and east of Greenland also. Its interesting to see the ramp up of temperature from 8.7 to 9.2 to 15.8 degrees in the warm blob next to Svalbard.
Hansen 2015 warned about the danger of the meltpool south of Greenland. predicting that by covering the gulf-stream it could produce a world wide global warming effect up to ten times as much as our current greenhouse gas overburden. By reducing its ability to radiate heat away into space. If this effect is kicking in, then we might have an explanation for why there appears to be a lot less ice nth of Svalbard and Franz Josef Land than Piomass is claiming. Theres been persistent southerly's there for a while now, and waves created by them up to 3m spanking the ice in the vicinity. With the fragmented pack they are capable of penetrating perhaps 100km into the ice, and if gulf-stream waters are lurking below the cooler surface then considerable heat may be attacking the ice from below due to mixing processes. That meltpool also seems  effective in pinning a low pressure system to itself and with the high pressure stalled over western Europe, the southerly's have been and look to want to continue winching all the air and humidity all the way up from the Caribbean and gulf of Mexico.
Click to animate.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 03:03:14 AM »
Would methane plumes be more more likely??

You are reading my mind.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 12:54:34 AM »
Personally (and scientifically), I have a very hard time placing much weight on such noisy and AFAIK unsupported metrics. I'm not saying that this year bona fide compaction is less or more than other years, I'm just saying that IMHO, based on this metric, we don't really know. (Or perhaps I am just ignorant about the relevant scientific literature...?)

Definitely in agreement on this. I think its very hard to pin down where we are by comparing any conventional metrics with past years. For a start perhaps as much as fifty percent of the "extent" being charted is a mobile mix of rounded off floes and rubble. And unless I'm mistaken these rubble areas which could be half of the actual area of these zones are below the resolution of algorithms being used to generate the data we are receiving. So (as an extreme example) say 100 sq km containing on average a football sized chunk or two per square meter dispersed evenly over the whole area could conceivably count as a solid 100 sq km of area and extent.
And my perception when I try to logic out the differences in the state of the ice from the massively different freeze season is that a lot of the Ice that is in the reasonably cohesive section nth of the CAA would have started its life near the Russian coast in Autumn conditions that were characterized by snowfalls on the water oscillating with sleet and above freezing temps and "snow-floes" might be a better description of them than Ice-Floes. These would have had difficulty building bottom thickness later in the season due to insulation properties of the "layercake" Then from February on when dry and cold conditions returned, the mobile snow-floes would have been set into a mesh of more saline late first year ice. which may well have built more thickness bottom down than earlier stuff with its snow blanket insulation. This sort of scenario could reduce meltponding via several mechanisms. Porosity of the "snow-floe" subset, Different elastic properties, and little strength in either set compared to previous years causing far more fracturing and drainage potential. And if there is less salinity in because of a lot of snow and sleet contributing to the early season stuff, then the lower melting point of the late FYI would, as it melts, tend to suppress water and air temperatures and retard melt in the earlier stuff .
Also regarding compaction metrics. previous years have been more characterized by the fringes being chiseled away and dispersed over relatively large areas. Giving large areas easily recognized as low concentration. Where as this year the increased mobility and fragility is causing a general sprawl out of rounded off floes and rubble fields.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 17, 2017, 11:50:36 PM »
ITP 97 is showing some very strange conditions. Surface waters have been in the -.4 C to -1.2 C range from the surface to 100 meters for over a week. There is also a concurrent shoaling of saline water from depth. I keep expecting to see some reversion to something more normal but everyday I look at the update and things still look weird .  I know one buoy's data might be just a buoy that is putting out bad numbers , but maybe it is the one source on what the water column is doing . What would a breakdown of the thermocline and the halocline look like ?

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136


The dissolved oxygen plot looks even more extreme. Certainly looks like some big upwelling events happened in the last week or two. Far too deep for bottom contour to affect currents. Could it be volcanism?


29
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 17, 2017, 02:52:04 AM »
<snip; N.>

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 17, 2017, 02:21:15 AM »
How do they calculate average thickness anyway? Would one 10m cube floating in a 6km square cell count as average ice thickness for 36sqkm of ocean of 10m? or is zero ice thickness over the rest of the area summed in? How fine is the resolution they are measuring? Can ridges and chunks fool the sensors when most of the freeboard is much lower? or is is calculated on thermal flux from below, with calibration against past ice thermal conductivity and ocean temp tables?

Do these belong in stupid questions? ???

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 16, 2017, 04:09:28 PM »
Interesting. That'll fluff up the Ionosphere and increase its insulation capacity.

Active Region 2665 produced a long-duration solar flare measuring M2.4 at its peak time on July 14, 2017. Today's event lasted for more than 2 hours; it started at 01:07, peaked at 02:09 and ended at 03:24 UTC. The eruption produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) with an Earth-directed component. This region is now moving away from the center of the Earth-facing Sun but could still produce moderate to strong eruptions in the days ahead.

The eruption was associated with a Type IV radio emission. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

This CME is expected to reach Earth late Sunday, July 16 or early Monday, July 17.




Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 44 minutes with peak flux of 130 sfu was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the S1 - Minor solar radiation storm threshold at 09:00 UTC.

M2.4 solar flare July 14, 2017

M2.4 solar flare July 14, 2017 - SWX Overview

WSA Enlil model below shows a potential glancing blow from a CME observed off the west limb at approximately 13:00 UTC on July 13. The impact is expected midday July 17, and could possibly combine with today's CME.

The model below shows CME impact expected on July 16:

Region 2665 (beta) is now moving away from the center of the Earth-facing Sun, but is still potent enough to produce moderate to strong eruptions in the days ahead.

Sunspots on July 14, 2017

Sunspots on July 14, 2017. Credit: NASA SDO/HMI

A watch has been issued for likely G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm conditions on July 16 and 17.

WSA-Enlil model run for July 14th CME impact on July 16
SWPC Alerts

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 460
Issue Time: 2017 Jul 14 1755 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 459
Valid From: 2017 Jul 14 0530 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2017 Jul 15 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

***

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 161
Issue Time: 2017 Jul 14 1029 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jul 15:  None (Below G1)   Jul 16:  G2 (Moderate)   Jul 17:  G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.




32
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 16, 2017, 03:46:20 PM »
I don't bet commodities.

Pity Peter. I do my best to avoid currency transactions these days. Too prone to leak into the hands of the corporats and govt f**kpigs that are determined to use it to keep killing the planet.
And I was looking forward to seeing video of you delivering the Pork pies to <snip; N.>.  ;D
We've nearly seen two consecutive doubles in the last couple of days with 344 extent losses in 48hrs. The forecast does look very good for this to be exceeded in the next few days.

Do have a think about the Oysters offer. Be a good excuse for you to come down here and pick them up, thereby avoiding the 200ft wavetrains demolishing all the cities and nuclear reactors on the nth atlantic coastlines in a few months time when Hansens cyclone cannon starts to crank its engine good and proper for the first time in 100000years.  ;)

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 16, 2017, 05:13:36 AM »
Some glimpses Through the clouds on the European front. Gif rotates anti-clockwise thru green selections on keymap from first at 85-87 nth polewards of FJL. click to animate.
Then a wide shot of the massive ice free zone opened off the Kara sea. Pink rectangle in the key.

I'm amazed at how despite the compacting offshore winds these regions seem to have much bigger spaces between the floes and lots more of it slush free dark ocean than a few days ago.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 15, 2017, 03:52:08 AM »
The first attachment is from July 10 to July 14 of 2016. The second attachment the same dates but for 2017. They are both Nullschool Temp at 850 hPa. It looks warmer in 2016.

Perhaps it was warmer in 2016. That could be more incoming heat, or the cooling effect of melting ice this year. IMHO theres not a big difference climatically between 2016 and this year. but the preconditioning  of last year prevented a lot of heat loss from the ocean over winter and left us with a slush pack that is an efficient cooler and condenser in the global atmospheric circulation system at the expense of basin wide exposure rather than mostly just the periphery exposed to melting with weather system exclusion resulting as our past experience is limited to .

Heres the Jet stream at 250hpa comparison between 2016 and 2017.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 15, 2017, 02:49:23 AM »


It was Lewis Fry Richardson who wrote...

Big whorls have little whorls
Which feed on their velocity,
And little whorls have lesser whorls
And so on to viscosity.


... All this shite counts as extent. But not for long.

[/quote]

Inspiring bill. Felt drawn to rap out another verse to follow. Lets honour the man with a chain limerick . Whos next?

Big whorls have little whorls
Which feed on their velocity,
And little whorls have lesser whorls
And so on to viscosity.


The vortex gods be hard to read,
  sometimes fair whorlets, they ears ring.
With chaos Devas, then they may feed,
 hence from ripples near, earthchange springs.


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 15, 2017, 12:33:08 AM »
Perhaps Hyperion could take heart in previous triple century increases! I see one in October 2006 and one in October 2007...

Don't worry Deeenngee. We've crow barred loose a big IceCube from the Larsen and have hooked it to our winning Americas Cup Cat to tow up there for you guys to use as a polar bear sanctuary. With the head released from the huge influxes of water vapour raining out over the basin causing a stupendous updraft into the stratosphere, that is then descending in the southern hemisphere, the North Pacific and Atlantic are now chock full of tropical levels of water vapour. Record flood events in asia and europe are an advance warning of what the arctic is up for.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 14, 2017, 11:18:36 AM »
I like my meat rare. Often raw. Seared on the outside but just up to blood temperature on the interior is best. a two day running average is fine, I did after all suggest that it was highly likely that double centuries might become common in a few weeks. Can I have public confirmation on the 100 pound bet offered? to be frank 100lb of smoked NZ oysters is worth a hell of a lot more than 100lb of pommie pub pork pies, So i is being very generous with the odds proffered. ;D

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 14, 2017, 09:05:32 AM »
The big influxes of tropical water vapour have been keeping the 850hpa altitude generally much warmer than near the surface. And the salty ice slush over most of the basin has a more powerful cooling effect as its unprecedented surface area exposed to water and air takes up energy as it melts in place. Easy to elevate surface temps if you have a largely smooth unbroken sheet that has little capacity to absorb energy from the air.
When you look at the 250hpa Jet situation below, you get an idea of how profound and complex  the atmospheric mixing has become. And over 30km up at the 10hpa level we have a planet wide movement of air from the north polar region to the south pole, creating a east to west trade winds belt covering the entire northern hemisphere, and a powerful up to over 400kmph west to east belt covering most of the southern hemisphere where the flow is continuing south. The only place that is warmer at 18km altitude than 12km is the south pole. The tropopause transition to the stratosphere seems to have lifted planet wide. There appears to be a big thrust of tropical moisture northwards planet wide from the returning airflow descending from high altitude over the south pole. I've attached a still of this situation with 10hpa winds and TPW worldwide.

The last two below are gifs of Total Precipitable water 14-18 july. click to animate

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 14, 2017, 04:47:39 AM »
And heres the just above surface temperature and wind animation 14-18 July.

The all fronts push towards the Garlic Press seems even more evident here. The Mid Russian coastline gets a slight reprieve for a day or so in the middle with some onshore cold expulsion, but I doubt it will be enough to do more than push a few floes loose into a killing ground. Theres plenty of offshore winds with enough open sea fetch to generate considerable swells to pummel the edges of the pack off the Eurasian continent. But the sustained strong southerlies in the north, Bering and Chukchi seas are going to produce some very decent northbound swells.  And not only accelerate gulf stream and warm pacific waters into the basin, but mix warm Alaskan and Eurasian Riverine fluxes, and low salinity surface waters with the warm salty stuff incoming as it passes over the shallow continental shelf areas. Westerlies blowing strongly along the Bering coast a few days in will enhance both pacific influx and this mixing. This may well stop the pacific waters descending at all, and allow their heat to directly get at the pack. Possibly even carving a channel through nth of CAA and Greenland where that strip of late first year ice is.

Click to Animate

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 14, 2017, 03:34:43 AM »
Heres an animation of the 850hpa winds and temps predicted for the 5 days 14 july to 18 july. An assault from all fronts of high temp air at this level, and the ice running for (dubious) safety in the garlic press of the CAA.

Click to Animate.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 13, 2017, 12:15:48 PM »
The ESS goes poof, 133k in 4 days. Lack of MYI suddenly showing.
probably far from over too. Big offshore steamhose for a few days. remnant of the vapourstream that gave 3/4 of a meter of rain to japan in six hours and record floods to china.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 13, 2017, 12:09:45 PM »
I don't know about double and triple century breaks, but a series of (single) century breaks could be in the making given the current weather forecast.

is the ijis data daily or is is one of these five day running mean finangles. interested in my pork pie prospects here! A man has to look to his food stock futures in this uncertain modern world! ;D

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 13, 2017, 03:53:59 AM »
A few less clouds today on the Terra-Modis images for the 12th. Nth pole at bottom right corner. Franz-Josef land at top left. Still veil of fog or cloud over most. gives that wavey mottled look. A few spots where there is none and the ocean between the floes stands out nice and dark though.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 13, 2017, 01:14:38 AM »
Finding it real hard to find gaps in the clouds to get decent views of the state of the ice in the central basin. But after a few hard hours of scanning thru terra modis, aqua modis and suomi imagery, and a bit of contrast and brightness tweaking heres a selection. As is obvious from these 80 to 90 degree north shots there seems little more than rubble up there. except possibly in the compression zone up against the CAA garlic press.

I suspect some unforseen mechanisms may be cutting in with the early opening of the chuckchi and Northern european coasts relative to their snow melts, and stormy conditions. Could this be mixing gulfstream waters, incoming pacific waters, and warm riverine outflows with the low salinity surface water of the greater basin as they pass over shallow continental shelf areas? causing an increase in incoming waterbourne energy staying near the surface?
Certainly the fetch for wind initiated current and chop in the large gaps between the loose packed rounded off floes over the majority of the ocean is enough to generate more mixing than has been seen before also. This is not an Arctic ocean that any models predicated on past observations can pin a tail on. And that includes things like precipitation predictions by models like Nullschool. The complexity and rapid change in the cloudtop shapes indicates a massive amount of local weather events going on out there.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 10, 2017, 03:01:00 AM »
Thanks Darvince. Those are really helpful.

5 day GFS precipitable water for the Arctic
CLICK IMAGE

Wow TT. That looks serious. The end of it is like the whole basin being smashed between a couple of subtropical anvils. Should be an extent crash about seven days from now with the compaction at both Atlantic and Pacific ends coupled with heavy rains and heat. We better get ready to estimate the water mass fluxes and energy input. This looks like more sv than the gulfstream and much more energy flux than it brings. May get my hundred pounds of pork pies.  8)

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 09, 2017, 07:30:59 AM »
I'll go 100 pounds of traditional pommie pork pies to 100 pounds of smoked New Zealand oysters on a double by the end of the month. 2:1 odds on the triple by the 15th of August. There's lots of steaming land vanquished of snow with plenty of hottest air of the year over the continents itching to use it. And as for ssts a little low on the Atlantic front. Floes have inertia. Every gust from the nth has been sloshing out the meltwater. Hiding the heat sliding in from the south underneath. And just wait until Veli s giant beavers shake the Siberian dirt from their fur and bob to the surface under the pole. The big late melt of the snow will make quite a hot blow. ;D ;D

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 08, 2017, 07:22:15 AM »
@Hyperion. PIOMAS is the superior model when it comes to ice volume, so stop misleading people by pretending the accuracy of HYPCOM-thickness is even comparable. Why are you cluttering the IJIS thread with this nonsense in the first place? There are several threads dedicated to volume models. And please - this apply to multiple people - stop concern-trolling the legitimacy of the extent measurements every time extent drops fails to meet your expectations. IJIS has time and time again proven a great asset to us casual sea ice observers.
Point taken about the ot. But a question was asked so I answered it.
And no. Extent is doing exactly as I have been predicting and voicing reasons for the opinion. It is a far more mobile pack than we've seen before. And the extensive fragmentation and high salinity has been causing temps to be supressed as it melts in place instead of from tje edges. More hot steamhoses ate predicted. I would expect to see double or triple century drops regularly stsrting in  a few weeks.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 07, 2017, 02:06:18 AM »
It is interesting that between 50 and 100cm depth 2017A seems to be freezing at -1C. This suggests that the ice there has a salinity of only 17 PSU. That's sea water diluted about half with fresh melt water. I can't wait for the next update :)

Me too! thats a huge rise in the core temp over the last few days. Perhaps its that soggy and porous that the snow melt is soaking through and washing out the brine pockets. Of course there is a big steam hose blasting out of bering with 30 kg per sqm coming in at 100km per hr, to rain over that area. So it could be rain flushing out the brine and raising the temp. Nullschool says its over 2C in near surface in that area so its likely that large areas are about to go POOF!  :(

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 07, 2017, 02:00:49 AM »
It does look like there is some glazing of ice over the water, although I fail to see how this might be possible with temps above zero throughout the buoy's weather chart.

If its fresher water sitting on melting saltice then it could easily get chilled with the colder stuff  rising to the top as greasy ice crystals.

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