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Messages - Neven

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:43:52 PM »
Do we expect anything to come of these high anomalies, where temperatures still stay below freezing?


Yes, earlier melt onset due to downwelling longwave radiation (see here). Or pre-pre-conditioning, as sea ice sailor called it earlier today (half-kiddingly, but aptly).

2
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:20:32 PM »
And this last bit from another Jimmy Dore show video published today, is also about Russia and how it detracts from the real problems:


3
And yet another good one (these are all recent ones, BTW, Jimmy Dore has hundreds of excellent videos), called Cartoon Reveals Exactly How Democrats Gaslight Progressives:

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Quote from Jimmy Dore:

That's the thing that people mistake. They keep saying: 'Well, we've got to get rid of Trump, Jimmy, why don't you get rid of Trump?' We're going to get rid of Trump, but we have to have something to replace him with once we get rid of him. And right now, what we have to replace him with, is more corporatist bullshit, more wars, more bank deregulation, more tax relief for billionaires. Right now, that's what's happening.

(...)

It's the Democrats we have to fight against. We know the Republicans are going to be in the tank for corporations. It's the Democrats who give fealty to the left, but that's just rhetoric. The know all the words, the know all the populist words, like Barack Obama.

(...)

So, this is the problem with the Democratic Party and they need to have something to replace him with. They don't. What they're doing now, is gaslight their own base, which is a losing strategy. As much as 2018 should be a bloodbath for the Republicans, I don't see it happening, because the Democrats are bent on staying shitty.

4
Another good one, called Keith Ellison Scolds Progressives - 'Buck Up!' and Take it!:

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5
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 29, 2017, 10:49:29 PM »
But this one fits here, from the Jimmy Dore Show, an 8 minute video called Russia Hysteria Reaches Comical Proportions (click the 'no longer available' link at the bottom if the video doesn't show up):

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6
So, maybe I'm wrong to do this, but I get a lot of my information from the Jimmy Dore Show, as I mostly trust comedians, because if they're funny, they're usually smart and take different perspectives on purpose because that's how comedy works.

I also watch some The Young Turks and vloggers like Sane Progressive (can't watch for very long, but she almost always makes good points) and Secular Talk, but mostly The Jimmy Dore show.

Now Jimmy Dore keeps repeating the same things about the problem of Corporate Democrats and how they are mostly to blame for the current political situation in the US, and so I will be posting his videos here that I think are most pertinent to the thread subject.

Today there's a really good one on a letter that Franklin Delano Roosevelt wanted to send to the Democratic National Convention, and how what he writes there, applies to the current situation (click the 'no longer available' link at the bottom if the video doesn't show up) :

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7
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 29, 2017, 10:38:30 PM »
I have decided to open a new thread to discuss the problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out.

8
The rest / The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: March 29, 2017, 10:36:31 PM »
Okay, I've been having these ongoing discussions in the Trump thread, even though I perhaps shouldn't (I'm not American and I don't have the time or the knowledge to give such a discussion the attention it deserves), but I'm just constantly frustrated to see how people fall into this groupthink that is mainly served up by mainstream media and focuses on any spectacle that turns the attention away from the real problem: The iron hold of corporations on American politics.

Of course, we all know how effed up the Republican Party and how they lie and cheat people, while serving the interests of the military-industrial complex, Big Fossil, Big Agro, and so on.  The problem is that the Democratic Party isn't any better. In fact, I would say it's even worse, because these Corporate Democrats act as if they represent the opposite of the Republican Party and are the party of the (working) people, whereas in fact, they too mostly serve the interests of Wall Street, Big Pharma and the military-industrial complex and so on.

And that's how you get Trump. First, he ate the Republican presidential candidates' lunch and won the primaries (with the help, as it turned out, from Clinton and her mainstream media network) and then he clinched victory away from the vastly unpopular Clinton who paid millions and millions for ads, outspending Trump 2:1, mostly smearing Trump instead of presenting ideas and inspiring people to come and vote for her. It was an absolute strategic disaster, so bad that I sometimes think they did it on purpose.

The problem is now that everyone is so anti-Trump that they're unwilling to look at how all this came about, and unwilling to try and change that, while taking on Trump at the same time. It's all Trump, Trump, Trump. That's the current message from the Democratic Party: We're not Trump. No ideas, no vision, no values, just 'We're not Trump'.

By constantly focussing on Trump's character and things like Russian influences (McCarthyism all over again, never mind the beam in thine eye) things are probably set up in such a way that Trump stays firmly in power and the Republicans keep their majority. And even if they don't, it's the Corporate Democrats that get some power back again to serve special interests again. So, corporations and rich people win either way.

What I and others have tried to make clear in the Trump thread is that some of that energy channeled towards Trump, needs to be use to either start a third party (which is very difficult) or sweep the Democratic Party clean, and get some true progressives in that can win back the trust of the people.

And so I've opened this separate thread to try and discuss with others to see if they agree, and if not, why not and what should happen instead. Why choose to die from the lesser poison, if the end result is the same?

9
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 29, 2017, 08:41:03 PM »
So whether you are from Austria or Australia you only have a few options if you are convinced both the Dems and the Republicans are equally evil.
Danger close
Boycott us, sanction us, or bomb us
Travel bans, revoke our visas, and figure out how to pay for the U.N. And NATO without us. It is of course either a Dem or a Republican , actually both, that help fund those programs. Maybe money does buy loyalty but if both branches of our government are hopelessly corrupt the entire world citizenry needs to unify against us.
 I am a Dem by the way and I don't believe the Republicans and the Dems are the same but if that is how it looks to the rest of the world I would suggest you respond in some meaningful way. I also think bombing us would be very counterproductive so you really have only monetary options.

I have started a Forum where I tell my American friends that everything they say about Trump is true, but it's really important that they realize that the main reason Trump is in power, is because of Corporate Democrat shenanigans. These neoliberals would obviously rather lose from Republicans and Trumpians than win with a true progressive like Bernie Sanders. They don't stand for anything, only for vague feel-good rhetoric that doesn't put off their corporate donors. They use the same tactics as Republicans and they take the working people for granted, without representing their best interests. It's an absolute disgrace. The neocons and neolibs are the same. There's no difference.

Now, if I can convince enough of my American friends that Trump is more of a consequence than a root cause, that it's not the Russians or the deplorables that put Trump there, but the insane tactic of putting up a candidate who was unpopular beyond belief (and with good reason!), shutting out the true progressive who actually stood for something instead of mudslinging and smearing the crazy Republican candidate (that they put in the spotlight together with their mainstream media cronies!), and losing the House, the Senate and almost every position on the federal level because the neoliberals (led by the Clintons and Obama) offer nothing but empty rhetoric, and are mostly interested in serving the interests of Wall Street, Big Pharma and the fossil fuel industry, then maybe my American friends will rally behind a real cause instead of the propaganda that is spoon-fed to them by the mainstream media, and turn this monster around (not right away, but a couple of years from now).

It's very difficult to start up a third party and Sanders clearly isn't planning on doing so (although I think he could if he wanted to), and so the Democratic Party needs to be cleaned up first and the neoliberals kicked out. Why there aren't riots after the street after Tom Perez is made head of the DNC instead of Keith Ellison, is a mystery to me.

My hope is that this is more effective than sanctioning, boycotting or bombing 'you', because there is no 'you', there is only 'us', just like the 1% aren't hampered by borders whatsoever and let their money fuck over everybody, including their own people. Russia vs USA, EU vs USA, Russia vs EU, it's all divide and conquer based on old thinking and conditioning.

This whole Russia-thing is drawing away the attention from the things that really matter. It's a circus, a spectacle to rile everybody up the wrong away and keep people of good will divided.

Sorry for bombing you with this cluster-rant. Don't boycott me.  ;)

I'll be watching some Jimmy Dore Show tonight and if I feel he explains some of the things that I just tried to, I'll post a link.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 29, 2017, 04:49:16 PM »
There might have been some rain or a brief period with conditions near zero, which at least affects the snow blanket. Not as bad as contrasting implies, but it may qualify as pre-pre-conditioning (half kidding)

That's exactly right. It's called melt onset, and once the pre-pre-condition snow/ice is hit with shortwave radiation (sunshine) things can go really fast.

So, the worse thing that can happen on the Siberian side of the Arctic, is for all the anomalous heat, clouds (downwelling longwave radiation) and early opening up, is for a high to move in next.

11
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 29, 2017, 04:39:22 PM »
Needless to say, I'm with Zeug Gezeugt on this one. The Russia stuff is smoke and mirrors to push weapon sales, to keep the Corporate Democrats in the saddle, and possibly to guarantee Republican domination for X years to come. Because this could very easily blow up in everyone's face and then Donnie Tiny Hand's chances of occupying the White House for four more years have become a lot larger.

There are two options: A third party or cleaning up the Democratic Party. The Podesta mails have amply shown what is wrong with the latter. The election of Tom Perez as head of the DNC further reinforces it.

And everyone needs to stop trusting mainstream media, whether it's FOX or CNN or MSNBC or whatever it is that is owned by mega-corporations such as Comcast.

It's all a game and we're the pawns. Who knows, maybe a Trump Presidency was the idea all along. Because how Clinton and the Corporate Dems have screwed up everything there is to screw up, beggars belief. But they're all still there. Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Cory Booker, etc...

12
Continue discussion in the Trump Presidency thread.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 29, 2017, 02:06:53 PM »
Slightly more movement in the past two days in the Kara...

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 10:10:07 PM »
Here's an update to that animation of the sea ice retreat from the southwestern shore of Novaya Zemlya (Kara Sea). Things haven't moved much for the past couple of days, and things might stay that way for a while longer, as this region seems to remain in the centre of a low-pressure area for the coming week.

15
Wow, that would scare the living daylights out of me if I were to witness that in real time.  ;D

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: I'm updating the ASIG next week. Any tips?
« on: March 28, 2017, 02:28:30 PM »
That'd be great, Jim. Let me know when it's done and I'll try to find room for it on the ASIG front page.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Piomas vs. CryoSat
« on: March 28, 2017, 11:14:03 AM »
All we can do is wait for the results of Operation IceBridge to come in, and hope that will give us some more clues.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: I'm updating the ASIG next week. Any tips?
« on: March 28, 2017, 11:02:20 AM »
Yes, I remember that one, Terry. Indeed, it was a colour for every million km2, and that way you could easily see at what time of year a certain milestone was passed.

I believe Seke Rob doesn't make or update graphs anymore, but I could ask Jim Pettit about it.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: I'm updating the ASIG next week. Any tips?
« on: March 27, 2017, 10:59:26 PM »
Hey Neven, thee SST page of DMI is now throwing what I believe ice temperatures as well, while the link to ice temps you have does not show an updated map and just links to the DMI in general.
Just in case you want to check it out. I think you can safely throw away the second link and gain some space.

Thanks, sis. I had a look at the DMI SST and SST anomaly maps, and something seems off. Perhaps they're changing things again, as the are wont to do when the melting season starts (instead of during the freezing season when it would seem much more logical to change things/experiment). Let's hope they don't touch the SST anomaly maps again. I had to beg and then threaten for weeks before they put it back up again.
----

I have updated the March and April sea ice concentration maps on the ASIG (here's March 25th for example). I have moved 2013 down to the second table with boring years, and updated the link to the Uni Bremen daily AMSR2 SIC map.

I'm going to try and do May and June later this week.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Piomas vs. CryoSat
« on: March 27, 2017, 09:50:15 PM »
Maybe they've been reading here, but it seems people at the NSIDC are aware of the situation:

Data from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 satellite indicate that this winter’s ice cover may be only slightly thinner than that observed at this time of year for the past four years. However, an ice-ocean model at the University of Washington (PIOMAS) that incorporates observed weather conditions suggests the volume of ice in the Arctic is unusually low.

21
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: March 27, 2017, 09:23:11 PM »
You have to remove the intestines, as they apparently give the slugs a horrible, bitter taste.  If you could eat them just like that, I'd never have to go to a supermarket again. But then again, ducks eat them, and you can eat the ducks.

As for slug solutions, it depends on how many are plaguing your premises. There is no way I could keep out the local Army of Darkness (as I call them) with egg shells, never mind the fact that my vegetable garden is 500 square feet. And beer traps just lure them in.

So, what I did, was build an electric fence with two stainless steel wires attached to 6 rechargeable batteries and a red LED as a resistor. The 6-7 Volts keep most of the slugs out, killing the small ones (sorry, little buddies!).

This month I have built a couple of cold frames. Last night it was -4 °C, but with a blanket over it, the temperature in the cold frame remained stable at 1.2 °C. Unfortunately, my wife forgot to open them yesterday, and half the plants died from the greenhouse effect (38 °C).

But all in all, it should help us plant things earlier.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 27, 2017, 09:12:29 PM »
It took me almost 5 minutes to copy the off-topic and way too long comments by Buddy and Hyperion. I won't be doing that often as the melting (and NH gardening) season progresses. So again, my 'rules' (they are actually universal laws):

1) Every comment in the melting/freezing season threads should pertain to that subject. These are the most popular threads for readers who don't comment, so don't bother them with off-topic stuff.
2) If you have to be off-topic, be short.
3) If you're the third guy who wants to say something about the off-topic subject, say: Okay, guys, this is getting off-topic, let's go to this or that thread - or open a new one - so our discussions don't get lost and we don't bother others. It's a big forum.
4) In other threads you can go off-topic more.
5) Don't start discussions about these rules in the thread itself. PM Neven or go to the The Forum category.

It's a big forum. Don't try to stuff all your ideas, theories and opinions in this one thread. Many people come here to read about the latest near real-time news on the 2017 melting season, not about the implications, the consequences and the politics of it all. Show some respect.

Thank you, that was all.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 27, 2017, 09:06:26 PM »
Here's a comment Buddy posted in the wrong thread:

Below is Wip's graphic of COMBINED global sea ice area.  I love Wip's graphic for several reasons....but certainly one of the reasons is that it combines the sea ice and we can see where we are IN TOTAL.  For albedo....and other reasons....that is important.

Global warming over the last few years has been "off the charts" for both sea ice, ocean temps, and air temperature.  And this year it appears to have been attacking the sea ice in a big way.

I'll describe the "interesting things" that I see/wonder about....when I look at Wip's chart.  Note:  I have added some things to the chart:

(1)  There are 4 "legs" to the trends in global sea ice over a years time....and this is true from 1978 through today:

(A) Leg A....is from early-to-mid November and goes through mid February.  That is when the Antarctic is in PEAK MELT season and is losing ice at a faster rate than the Arctic is gaining ice.

(B) Leg B....is from mid February through mid June.  That is when the Antarctic is adding more ice than the Arctic is losing.

(C) Leg C....is from mid June through end of August/early September.  This is where the Arctic is now in PEAK MELT and losing more ice than the Antarctic is adding.

(D) Leg D...is from end of August/early September through the end of October/early November.  This is when the Arctic is adding more ice than the Antarctic is losing. 


(2)  Prior to 2016.....the "slope" of the two "peaks" in sea ice.....WAS UP as you can see by the upward sloping BLUE LINES.   Before 2016....the highest peak was the "early November peak".....which is the time of year when the Arctic is gaining ice at a fast clip AND when the Antarctic is losing ice at a SLOW CLIP, just before the Antarctic really begins to lose serious ice.

But 2016 changed all of that.  In 2016 two things happened from a "mathematical" standpoint:  (a) the Antarctic ice sheet reached a RECORD LOW MAXIMUM in late August of 2016 which is VERY EARLY, and (b) the Antarctic started losing ice in late August when the Arctic was still losing ice itself.  That combination of LOW MAX and EARLY MAX by the Antarctic.....AND....the Arctic still losing ice....created a RECORD LOW PEAK to global sea ice in early October.  That peak was about 17.5 vs the prior record low peak of 20.5.  That low peak in 2016 was about 15% LESS than the prior record low peak.

In "charting".....whether you're dealing with things in nature....or your dealing with things in "markets" (stock market, oil market, etc).....that is called a "DIVERGENCE".  Something changed or reached a tipping point....in order to cause such an immediate and significant change.

The "FUNDAMENTALS" cause the graph....the graph don't cause the fundamentals.  Did currents in the southern oceans shift to allow a greater amount of warm ocean water to attack the ice?  Did the winds coming from the interior of Antarctica blowing OUT towards the sea die down and decrease the amount of area/extent in Antarctica?

OR.....have we reached ANOTHER TIPPING POINT......where several things have slowly been "coming together" to cause the increased melt earlier in the season:  Record setting air temps over the past 3 years, continually warming ocean temps, changing ocean currents, etc.

The SECOND GRAPH BELOW......is a "stab" at what a "worst case scenario" MIGHT look like over the coming year.  If there are enough FUNDAMENTALS that are now coming together to drive the ice levels LOWER....and EARLIER.  It is NOT meant to be "this is what I think will happen."  It is more of a "what IF another significant low happens THIS YEAR AGAIN".....?  The "blue line" for the remainder of 2017 is just a "what if" scenario.

Also....note the "black circle".....that is just shown to highlight where this years line has CROSSED OVER BELOW the record low of the last year.

I KNOW where the ice is going over the next 10 years....LOWER.  What we don't know is WHEN and HOW STEEP the drop will be.  That SECOND GRAPHIC just posts something to "think about"....and ponder.  If anything CLOSE to that DOES HAPPEN this year....then the ramp up in worry will be significant.....although at this point, I'm not sure just how much more worrying can be done going from a "level 8 worry" to a "level 10 worry".           

24
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: March 27, 2017, 09:00:59 PM »
Here's a comment Hyperion made in the wrong thread:

Thanks slow wing. Especially for pointing out my elderly muddleheaded mixuped mismemoring of the enthalpy of vapourisation figure. How embarrassing to under calculate a figure by some 500 times. ::)
 And you Jai. Wish I had more time right now to read those papers. Very busy day unfortunately.  These worldwide changes to the circulation patterns we are used to seem to be happening almost hour by hour right now. It does seem like, particularly in the polar regions the tropopause has lifted suddenly and dramatically as predicted by some models and proposed as necessary for single cell circulation regimes in past equable climates. As for whether I'm a magnitude out in those estimated flow rates? As an engineer you tend to go "how bad could it get? What is the level of safety we need built in to handle it?" the precautionary principle with a mind to the future is the mindset. Not scientific understatement, with no credibility placed on any data but the solidly studied and proven historic data. And so I think it is possibly the best introduction we currently have, to what to expect in the late Arctic summer to observe whats going on down south here right now. That TPW fist that was heading for the Antarctic peninsula is now there. 15kg/sqm of water aboard and suddenly the whole peninsula is hotter by 6-10 degC. Up to 6 above freezing in places. The one heading for Ross, south of NZ is packing 30kg/sqm and came from mainly over Australia.  The Fist from the Indian Ocean Tropics is packing 45kg/sqm and just about to pass the Kerguellens at 52 sth and ram East Antarctica.
The huge 930hpa low taking up the whole space between Australia and Antarctica is the scariest mother I've ever seen, and looks capable of grabbing the whole of the Pacific Tropical airmass and squeezing all of it out on Antarctica. Especially as it comes across and meshes with the Anticyclone taking up nearly all the cental south pacific. Also absurdly large.
No I don't think its usual for the whole of the south Pacific trades to be turned from the tropics and sprayed on Antarctica Tigertown. It happened two weeks ago. There's even some of the Trades from Nth of the equator being pulled into the flow that just hit the Antarctic Peninsula, and the big puddle that just grazed our New Zealand east coast that's setting itself up to be shot south from between those two Flywheels.
Your Nth Atlantic Storm is looking serious. Its very tall, above 30km. Reckon its going to do much the same with the atlantic Tropical Air. We seem to have transitioned to a primarily Ferral cell circulation mode. The angular momentum of Polewards air is being stored in the jets, and retrieved by the high altitude equator wise backflows IMHO.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/azimuthal_equidistant=159.15,-58.94,371

25
Here's an example of why it is sometimes embarrassing when malicious motives are assigned to scientists when they publish papers that can be spun by climate risk deniers. From the Stoat discussion on the Ding et al. paper, where the #2 comment stated that 'Qinghua Din lead author, has signed off on other papers with Willie “oilcan” Song, collector of 1+ million dollars from oil, energy & business PR propaganda poopers':

Qinghua Ding
Goleta,CA
2017/03/26

I am very disappointed to see #2 comment on our paper. But I really appreciate that Raymond said something for me and Eric fought back for me before I step in.

Here I only want to quickly respond to that suspicion.
The primary funding source of the paper is from NOAA.

Please check this if you want to know more

http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms/EarthSystemScience/ClimateVariabilityandPredictability/FundedProjects/tabid/435/u1168q/32303135/u1168c/5965617220496E697469616C6C792046756E646564/u1168m/equal/Default.aspx

I don’t know Willie Song. The main reason I was on that paper was that the paper focused on the global monsoon, a concept proposed by one of my early paper ( Wang and Ding 2005) with my Ph.D advisor ( Pro. Bin Wang). I helped the first author doing some analyses and so she put my name in the paper.I probably won’t check this blog again. If you have any further question, please reach me at my email address qinghua@ucsb.edu


Anyway, I'm looking forward to a response to Rob Dekker's critique.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: March 27, 2017, 12:47:15 PM »
Hello, Layman, and welcome to the ASIF. Your profile has been released for direct commenting.

Hello.

Recently I have come across some fairly alarming information about the rapid melting of the Arctic and release of Methane etc etc mass extinction etc etc. Whilst I had heard about this before (having been paying attention to what scientists have been saying about Climate Change for the past 17 years), the timescale of the suggested apocalypse is somewhat shorter than previously imagined, and the probability of stopping it once it begins appears to be about 0.0%.

So my question is, how accurate is the suggestion that within a decade we will see an ice-free Arctic and the release of cataclysmic amounts of Methane into the atmosphere?

If the suggestion comes from Guy McPherson or the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, I wouldn't put too much trust in it. That doesn't mean this isn't a problem, but it's probably not as acute as the aforementioned people suggest. The answer lies somewhere between them and (too) conservative science, is my guess.

For more information, there are several threads on this issue on the Permafrost board.

27
Thanks, sidd, I'll have to remember that one.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: LENR as a new energy source?
« on: March 26, 2017, 07:25:06 PM »
I stopped reading after the words Andrea Rossi, but I must admit that if I had continued to read, I wouldn't have understood any of the science either.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: LENR as a new energy source?
« on: March 26, 2017, 07:18:44 PM »
They must have at least 6 billion USD in pre-orders now.

30
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 26, 2017, 08:57:54 AM »
But that's where the problem is, right? The temperatures will not lower in the foreseeable future.

My point is not that this is not happening today -- it is that the mechanism resulting in increasing fall/wintertime snowcover will soon overwhelm spring/summer snowcover as well, even if it may take another 5-10 years to kick into gear.

The mechanism, ie global warming via CO2 forcing, is going to continue to increase as well and overwhelm fall/wintertime snowcover. At some point snow will turn into rain.

31
Well done, Rob. Keep us posted, if you can.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: March 26, 2017, 08:44:54 AM »
Your profile has been released, Let It Go.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Buoys Are Back in Town
« on: March 25, 2017, 12:44:10 PM »
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

Wow, a whole 8 cm of bottom growth. So much for resistance to disintegration.  ;)

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: I'm updating the ASIG next week. Any tips?
« on: March 25, 2017, 12:41:25 PM »
I noticed this too the other day. Somehow I thought the comparison maps started in April, but March is in there too. I will soon start updating these. Thanks for the heads-up, Andre.

36
How do you mention a paper that hasn't even been published yet?

AndrewB, you've made your point. Now don't reiterate it constantly by nitpicking details. Thanks.

And don't tell people to go and do this or that.

37
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 24, 2017, 05:14:36 PM »
bbr2314, did you have a look at the Ewing-Donn theory yet, and why it was rejected ultimately?

38
Okay, enough now. ktonine has a point that we should try not to imply malfeasance or ignorance on the part of scientists. At the same time this paper was spinned by the people who wrote the press release or whatever, and this was then spinned further by those who have nothing to offer but spin. So, it's understandable that people are upset by this.

Either way, back to content. Or just let this fizzle out, as it doesn't mean all that much in the big picture. But let's not fight over this.

39
The whole forum? Or just one (or a couple) out of 1200+ members?

40
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: March 24, 2017, 07:33:37 AM »
Welcome to the ASIF, Dry_Land_Is_Not_A_Myth, our profile has been released.

As for our question, I also watch the University of Colorado graph (occasionally), but I would expect there are others as well.

41
So when can we expect this natural variability to flip back again and see a reduction in the rate of Arctic sea ice loss?

42
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 23, 2017, 12:25:24 PM »
For those of you who haven't heard about it, you may be interested in reading about the Ewing-Donn theory (Wikipedia) from the 1950's,  which posited that ice ages were caused by this negative feedback of snowfall anomalies. Also read this excellent summary on Spencer Weart's Discovery of Global Warming website that places the theory in historical context.


44
Glaciers / Re: Barnes Ice Cap / Penney Ice Cap
« on: March 22, 2017, 05:46:18 PM »
I read about this on Climate Central today.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 03:35:33 PM »
Your new profile has been released, sondreb, so you can post freely now.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 10:53:43 AM »
Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.

That to me is the most noteworthy event in the Arctic right now. I've made an animation of the ice retreat south of Novaya Zemlya for the last 8 days:



Given the current wind and temps forecast this is going to continue for at least another week.

And so the big question becomes: Will this freeze over again when the winds reverse?

It did back in 2011 and 2012, but this time the retreat will go further, I expect.

2011:



2012:



When things closed up again, they stayed that way until mid-May. Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: March 22, 2017, 10:41:58 AM »
Another bery nice graph, señor!

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 09:48:58 AM »
Your profile has been released, Sam.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 02:36:33 PM »
I had to laugh too.  ;)

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 21, 2017, 12:38:29 PM »
There already is a Barneo 2017 thread.

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