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Messages - Buddy

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The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: April 23, 2017, 03:57:08 PM »
Keep in mind that MOST of the issues surrounding Trump....are related to RussiaGate, if only indirectly.  They are RELATED....because they all affect Donnie's approval rating....and THAT is what will, along with the actual evidence.....take Donnie down eventually.  Because if his approval ratings sink into the 20's.....people in the House and Senate take notice.

So...when Donnie is an absolute idiot....and "congratulates" someone for getting the purple heart, instead of thanking him for his sacrifice and his service......THAT effects RussiaGate.

When Donnie gets SLAMMED for his idiotic policies regarding the EPA or global warming....THAT effects RussiaGate.

When Donnie is a slob to his wife.......THAT effects RussiaGate.

Donnie is going to continue to make mistake after mistake over the coming weeks and months.  And they will ALL effect RussiaGate.  And in return.....RussiaGate will also effect many of those other issues.  It is a two way street with global warming or the EPA for example.

The continued disclosures in RussiaGate are going to make many of the people concerned about the EPA or climate change......EVEN MORE CONCERNED and MORE DETERMINED TO ACT.  So this is NOT a one way street.

The process continues......

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: April 23, 2017, 03:42:08 PM »
Sometime shortly after May 2nd....Sally Yates will be testifying in PUBLIC in front of the House Intelligence Committee meeting.  As well....former CIA Director John Brennan and James Clapper, the former director of national intelligence will also be testifying.

Sally Yates had warned the White House in January about Michael Flynn not being accurate with his comments about his meetings with the Russian ambassador.  I believe that VP Pence had to be aware of those comments from Sally Yates.  And took Trump almost 3 full weeks to fire Flynn.

This is going to be interesting testimony for sure...... 

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: April 23, 2017, 02:44:11 AM »
Wouldn't you just know it.  Someone who thinks "RussiaGate" is a fraud and a "non-event" and a waste of time.......TERRY IS THE FIRST ONE TO POST ON THE THREAD. a good one....I'm still chuckling...

The three most outspoken people on this site against even DOING the RussiaGate investigations are living in Canada, Austria, and Australia.  I find that fascinating as well.....

So when Trump doesn't finish his term in office, and has to resign or be impeached.....or removed otherwise.....I guess it won't be because of the RussiaGate scandal.  It will be due to all the pressure that was put on him against his anti-science policies.....or anti EPA policies....or his anti women policies.....or his anti minority policies.  Yea....THAT will be the reason he leaves office.... ;)

By the way.....I liked the Noam Chomsky video that Nevin posted.  I agree with some of the things that Noam states.  It certainly IS hypocritical for the US to get angry with others that try to involve themselves in our election.  ABSOLUTELY AGREE.  But that DOES NOT MEAN YOU LET OTHERS EFFECT YOUR OWN ELECTIONS.  It should mean:  Quit screwing with other country's elections.  It DOESN'T mean that we should be both hypocritical AND stupid (by letting others mess with our elections).

By the way....Noam has stated in an interview, that he thinks there IS a possibility that Russia DID involve themselves in our election.  Just to get that on the record.

And...that is why they are doing the investigations:  Because there are SOOOO many dots that lead in that direction.  WAY TOO MANY TO IGNORE.  I know......Ready, Aim, Fire.....instead of Fire, Ready, Aim.  Who would 'a thunk it?

And again....because our political crooks are apparently more advanced than those in Canada (and Australia).......our crooks don't admit they did it UNTIL AFTER THEY ARE FOUND GUILTY....not before.  That is why we do investigations FIRST.  Terry...please send us your crooked Canadian politicians.  That will make it much easier on us if they admit guilt right after they do their dirty deeds instead of having to do those darn investigations.


I guess I will do what I have to do, and others will do likewise. I have worked around politicians for too long, I have not participated in the election process for too long, and I now see the results. I am now at the point where I am taking an active interest in every political race, in every one of the little dying towns I have been through for all these years.


By FAR the best written thing I have seen on this blog.  That is what a WORKING democracy is about:  Involvement.  I commend you.....and urge YOU to urge OTHERS to do the same.  Whether it is in town council meetings.....elections....or running for office.   Good work mate.... :) 

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 22, 2017, 08:43:41 PM »
A good article on FOX.  And after you read this'll have a better understanding of why Trump uses FOX.....and FOX uses Trump.  A wonderful marriage..

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 21, 2017, 06:46:52 PM »
After months of harping on Russiagate it may well be time to put that meme to bed.

The meme will go to sleep once the investigation is over....and not a minute before.  Watergate went on for 19 months.....we just started month 4.  And this could go on LONGER....

I would get more popcorn if I were you......

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 21, 2017, 06:16:34 PM »
You argue that the election is over, and that it doesn't matter anyway.
Then, in your second last paragraph, you retract the very argument you had made.

The election is over, get over it.


The question below....REGARDING THE ELECTION.....was brought up by YOU.  I was answering YOUR QUESTION.  I didn't "bring it up."  YOU DID. 

Just how was that Fiendish Putin able to sway the votes of so many swing state voters?

You see.....that was YOUR QUESTION.  Not mine.  My mistake was answering it apparently....

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 21, 2017, 05:49:34 PM »
More bad news for Donnie Boy:

"Donald Trump has 'dangerous mental illness', say psychiatry experts at Yale conference."

Mental health experts claimed the President was “paranoid and delusional”, and said it was their “ethical responsibility” to warn the American public about the “dangers” Mr Trump’s psychological state poses to the country.

Speaking at the conference at Yale’s School of Medicine on Thursday, one of the mental health professionals, Dr John Gartner, a practising psychotherapist who advised psychiatric residents at Johns Hopkins University Medical School, said: “We have an ethical responsibility to warn the public about Donald Trump's dangerous mental illness.”

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 21, 2017, 05:27:49 PM »
But But But

If the evil Ruskies didn't feed the data to Wikileaks, as I'd said was very unlikely many times.

Just how was that Fiendish Putin able to sway the votes of so many swing state voters?

I can't believe I actually have to answer this for you:

1)  The Russian's didn't need to hack the data.  Wikileaks did that all by themselves....with help from someone on the inside.  All the Russian's needed to do....was use that data (where appropriate).  But the Russinas NEVER NEEDED THE WIKILEAKS DATATHEY COULD MAKE UP...AND DID MAKE UP ALL KINDS OF OTHER STORIES NOT RELATED TO ANY OF THE WIKILEAKS DATA.  They used the Wikleaks data BECAUSE THEY COULD, and it was a "bonus"....but they didn't need to.

Do I really need to explain that to you?  Do you REALLY not believe that the Russian hackers (not Wikileaks hackers) "made shit up" and spread it like wildfire.....IN ADDITION to taking the Wikileaks info and spreading that as well?

2)  That "fiendish Putin" didn't have to sway the votes of SO MANY SWING STATE VOTERS.  Unless you think that 110,000 voters TOTAL over four states is a lot to you.  It isn't to me....its a small bit.  And the Russian hackers PLUS the Comey announcement regarding Clinton WAS ENOUGH to push Donnie JUST BARELY over the top in those 4 states (and maybe in Florida as well).

Your position that the Russians DIDN'T try to effect the US elections IS NOW CAST IN STONE.  And my position.....that the Russians DID try to effect the us elections is also cast in stone.  Over the coming months.....we will find out which one is right....because they are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE outcomes.

You Donnie does....that the Russians didn't interfere. Either you and Donnie are right....or I am right.  Not both.....

I don't know why you....and others....keep going back to the election.  IT IS OVER.  So whether the Wikileaks information.....or the Russian hackers spreading false stories.....or the Comey announcements just days before the elections.........were individually responsible, or together responsible......or they wouldn't have made any difference at all (which I don't believe).......THOSE ARE ALL REALLY NONISSUES RIGHT NOW.

The only issue is finding out if Russia did or did not try to impact our elections...AND...were they working WITH anyone in the Trump campaign.

I don't know why that investigation is so hard for some of you to accept......

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 21, 2017, 05:05:36 PM »
"One of the great things about science is that it is an entire EXERCISE IN FINDING WHAT IS TRUE."

Neil de Grasse Tyson....GREAT VIDEO posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week...

The use in science of FINDING THE TRUTH....should be used on ALL ISSUES.  It is the reason that our legal system is such a mess.....and why our political system is such a mess....and why our economy is so "disjointed" and unfair.  WE DON'T LOOK FOR THE TRUTH.

It isn't that difficult in concept....the concept of FINDING THE TRUTH.  But in order to FIND THE TRUTH....WE HAVE TO LOOK FOR THE TRUTH.  And when we have people...especially people in government AND people in journalism (hello FOX News).....that AREN'T looking for the truth.....then we get into real problems.

Maybe Donnie should watch this video.  He might learn something about looking for the truth (OK....just kidding ;).

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 21, 2017, 03:49:17 PM » was not the Russians that did what?

Terry....I'll answer the question myself.

The Russians....per the article....weren't the leakers of CIA documents to Wikileaks.  I guess my response is this:

I don't think anyone on this topic string...or elsewhere....EVER said the Russians leaked the CIA documents to Wikileaks.  So?  What was your point?  Was there a point?  Or were you just pointing out a single bit of an ever larger sea of information over the coming months?

Just curious....

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 21, 2017, 03:11:18 PM »
The FBI Admits it Was Not the Russians was not the Russians that did what?

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 21, 2017, 02:03:41 PM »
Exxon and Chevron report their quarterly earnings on April 28th next week.  I expect that they are LIKELY to reduce their dividends by the end of this October (that would be one of the next 3 earnings reports).

So...if it doesn't happen this quarter.....I think it will happen in their quarterly report in July or October.  Clearly....the price of oil/gas over that time WILL have a large well as the direction that renewable energy resources take.  I think they are boxing themselves into a corner that they can only get out of by changing/altering their business others are doing in the energy space.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 21, 2017, 01:25:59 PM »
For those of you growing "impatient" and wondering why "the process" moves so is the Wikipedia timeline of Watergate.

Note....the break-in to the DNC headquarters (Watergate) happened in June of 1972....that is when the "plumbers" were caught breaking in about 5 months before the re-election took place.  Nixon didn't leave office until 19 months AFTER his re-election.

IF the RussiaGate scandal were to follow the same timing....that would mean that Donnie wouldn't be out of office until August of 2018 (Next August).

Looking through the time-line will at least give you a "structure" as to when SOME of the key moments took place.  IT IS A PROCESS....and it takes time.  it is also interesting...if you time on the look through some of the video of Watergate.  Truly fascinating.  And it is fascinating to think that Nixon held out for as long as he could....LONG AFTER the evidence pointed directly to him.  He was using EVERY BIT OF LEGAL MANUVERING to "ride it out".  And only when the outcome of vote in the Senate was assured to go against him if it had taken place....did he resign instead.

So....buckle up.....stock up on popcorn....and watch the show for the next 12 - 18 months.  And read through the attached timeline to get an idea of some of the things that took place many decades ago.  Human psychology doesn't change.  Lying, cheating, greed, power-mongering, bullying, ego.....  You will continue to see many of the same sort of traits AND events that happened in Watergate.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 20, 2017, 07:45:05 PM »
Looks like Jason Chaffetz is going to be leaving office EARLY rather than serve out the rest of his term.  I wonder why that is?  That seems like such a departure for Jason.  Jason was ALWAYS up for a good fight when it came to Benghazi.


1.  Michael Flynn......gone quiet, and his lawyer is looking for a deal
2.  Rudy Giuliani.......gone quiet, and reportedly looking for a deal
3.  Devin Nunes........had to recuse himself from the House committee investigating RussiaGate......
4.  Paul Manafort......reportedly "looking for a deal" from authorities
5.  Jason leaving office early for some "personal reason"  ;)   Not just "not running"......instead, he is "running out of town ASAP."  Maybe he will be moving to Russia....

This is going to end up being one MF'ing mess.  The "roach theory" is in FULL FORCE on RussiaGate.....

The noose will continue to tighten over coming months.....

Donnie needs to get SOMETHING DONE other than playing another 18 holes of get people OFF OF RUSSIAGATE.   I hear he has a pretty good "short game" but his "long game" has gone limp. ;)

For instance.....he might want to bone up on the history of Korea:

Here we are.....just 3 months in.....and Donnie has become an absolute laughing stock.  Not only at home....but abroad as well.  He has not even met my INCREDIBLY LOW EXPECTATIONS FOR COMPETANCE.

Before....I was worried about Donnie doing something REALLY STUPID.  Now I have a second worry:  If I'm an adversary......I am licking my chops, because I see a country that has Bozo The Clown pretending to be president....and I know he can be bought off (Hi Vlad'....Donnie told me to tell you hi).  He growls loudly.....but he is all bluster (witness the Syria rocket "attack").  This is now becoming MORE dangerous.....because there is no easier mark in a poker game than someone you know is bluffing.

The process continues........ 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 20, 2017, 06:45:07 PM »

The temperature at Utqiagvik (Barrow), by contrast, might not reach the melting point until well into May. That's the difference between 64 and 71 degrees N.

The last several weeks (and maybe more) the Russian side of the Arctic has been where all the warm anomaly's have been hanging out.  There....and in the CAB.  The Canadian/Alaska side of the Arctic has been much cooler.

The graphic below for the upcoming 27th is representative of what HAS been happening over the recent weeks...

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 20, 2017, 04:49:46 PM »
I have attached a couple of charts....5 year charts......that show where the price of oil (West Texas Intermediate) has been over the last 5 years.  As well....I have attached a 5 year chart of ExxonMobile (XOM).

For informational purposes only.....Sometimes we forget where things WERE 3 - 5 years ago...

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 20, 2017, 12:49:31 PM »
That's BS and you know it


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 20, 2017, 12:23:16 PM »
Effect of Trump policies on travel industry:

The "ray of sunshine" that tourism from RUSSIA is up..... ;)

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 19, 2017, 08:20:32 PM »
Well....since Donnie took credit for the economy since he took office....I'm sure he'll be more than happy to blame Obama for this bit of news:

Not surprised to see some "softening".  I also expect oil prices to head SOUTH over the coming several months.....and for oil companies to cut back on their dividends (Mr. Oil stock shareholder is NOT going to like that one bit).  Greed is a funny animal....and you never know when he is going to bite you.

It's kind of funny.  Donnie has stacked his administration with just the people WE DON'T NEED going into the future:  Fossil fuel folks.  It will be interesting to see how his administration reacts when oil prices head further south......and the big oil companies have to admit they will cut dividends in order to invest in renewable energy resources.  Boy....that one is going to sting Donnie a bit when it comes...... ;)

Keep in mind that Donnie DELAYED his response to the Paris agreement for at least a couple of was supposed to come out this week.  I wonder why he did that?  I'm sure it had NOTHING to do with the upcoming marches on APRIL 22nd and APRIL 29th. ;)

The tourist industry INTO THE US has become soft over the last 3 months.  I can't imagine why?  Donnie has created such a welcoming attitude in the US towards anyone of a different color or ethnicity. Hmmmmmmmm

We'll see if the economy softens a bit in coming weeks and months....and what Donnie's reply will be.


Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 19, 2017, 07:33:31 PM »
« Reply #1405 on: Today at 07:11:35 PM »'re saying there's more upside? ;)

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 19, 2017, 05:07:50 PM »
Jason Chaffetz not running for re-election in 2018.  Not a surprise here.....if I were going to prison, I probably wouldn't run for re-election either.  Let's see.....another term in office....or a term in prison.  OK....prison it is. ;)

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 19, 2017, 03:31:57 PM »
Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Yes...I would suspect there is a pretty good correlation as well.  Of course.....GOING FOREWARD, there doesn't HAVE to be.  People are JUST NOW beginning to "figure out" what a sustainable world will look like.  And it doesn't mean using up everything in the world.

We have a LONG WAYS TO GO both on the environmental well as the economic and social fronts.  Some interesting challenges ahead of us in the next decade or two.  Since facts and truth NEVER GO AWAY....I suspect we will stumble TOWARDS THEM....but not at the pace we could or should.   

Permafrost / Re: This is not good (methane clathrates)
« on: April 19, 2017, 01:02:45 PM »
I'm thinking one hot summer could lead us into an uptick in CH4/CO2 across the region?

I'm afraid "the table is set" for a nasty summer in Russia.  Warm winter.....melting permafrost.  Even if the spring and summer is "moderate".....Russia could be in for some nasty surprises.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 19, 2017, 03:29:59 AM »
Spicey is NOT going to have a good day Wednesday.  And DONNIE.....DONNIE is headed in the wrong direction.   But SPICEY......he has a lot of explaining to do.  Saturday Night Live has got to be licking their chops.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 18, 2017, 10:02:59 PM »
A little Trump humor to lighten the day.... ;)

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 18, 2017, 09:56:00 PM »
Do you think this could be a distraction?


Donnie won't be able to get any significant tax legislation voted on until he shows his tax returns.

As I have always said....Donnie makes BAD DECISIONS.  Instead of going with tax legislation FIRST(or infrastructure spending), he chose healthcare.  He lost that battle.  And now some of the moderate Republicans have a little more spring in their step, and they also want to see Donnie's tax returns. going to be a problem for Donnie.

There is now too much momentum to see Donnie's tax he is stuck in the mud on tax reform until he shows his returns (which he is NOT going to do).

In fact....I would NOT be surprised, if Donnie has his tax returns subpoenaed in the coming RussiaGate investigations.  That is likely the only way we will ever see his FULL RETURNS.

Donnie is boxing himself in a corner.....but that is what someone does when they start to run out of lies.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 18, 2017, 09:38:53 PM »
IIRC Russia has been budgeting for $40 oil for some years now. Anything over $40 is pure gravy.

What do they call it when it goes to $30 - $35?  Sour gravy?

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 18, 2017, 09:35:24 PM »
Here is an interesting story about "incentives and disincentives":

Knowing WHY someone is "incentivized" to do something or NOT do something is very important.  Whether you are in business or government or sports.......the phrase "follow the money" applies.

Here is a fun article about incentives for Maurice Harkless of the Portland Trailblazers NBA basketball team.  And why.....all of the sudden....he quit attempting 3 point shots:

And that is why I want to SEE the tax returns of federally elected politicians.  I want to know if there are any PERSONAL INCENTIVES for why they are voting for or against legislation.  And to do need to see the tax return.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 18, 2017, 09:05:21 PM »
Ditto all the above by Jim P.

Why EVERYONE who is running for a US Senate seat.....US House seat.....President....Vice President....Every cabinet position....and the Supreme Court....doesn't have to show their FULL tax returns for AT LEAST the last 10 years is beyond me.  TRULY AMAZING....

In the case of the ELECTED OFFICES ABOVE....they should have to show those AT LEAST 1 MONTH BEFORE THEY ARE ON THE PRIMARY BALLOT.

I don't want some LYING SHLEP to get through the primary without showing the return.....only to get into the general election and show their returns that would have been laughed at in the primary. 


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 18, 2017, 07:50:07 PM »
Let's see what the good people of RED STATE Arkansas say about seeing Trump's tax returns in this 2 minute video clip:

You think the people of Arkansas want to see those returns? ;)

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 18, 2017, 07:46:11 PM »
There is nobody better to expose a CON MAN like Trump.....than another con man like Alex Stephen Colbert points out:

Keep in mind that WE ARE ONLY 90 DAYS INTO TRUMP's TERM.  90 F**KING DAYS.  Yesterday....the press at the daily briefing showed signs that they might be at the start of mocking Trump themselves.  This is only the BEGINNING of the mocking by the press corps at the daily briefings....but I FULL expect this to get more aggressive and "in your face" in the coming months as Trump continues to push the pedal on LIES....and Spicey and others will have to lie in order to cover.

In this short 90 second clip of can see some of the "looks" of the press as Spicer talks about Trump's "audit".

If you think it has been "crazy" up till NOW.....just remember....we are ONLY 90 DAYS IN.   They will OPENLY be mocking Spicer and Trump before this thing is over and done....


Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 18, 2017, 01:34:04 PM »
Here is a "stab" at a POSSIBLE new channel being formed.  Again....this is NOT rocket science...only a stab at what "might be forming."

The "fundamentals" certainly seem to be in place for this to have already started:

1)  increasing CO2 and methane
2)  Current and future decreases in China air pollution....leading to more warming
3)  Increase in various feedback effects.....permafrost, ice melt, wildfires, etc...

So...the fundamentals seem (yes...that is a loaded word) to support the possibility/likelihood of "warmer faster".....

Clearly....we won't know for at least a handful of years....maybe more.  But this is something that we certainly could be looking IN THE NEARTERM in the years ahead....

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 18, 2017, 12:33:53 PM »
Anyone who "poo poo's" the value of STRONG PROTEST.....needs only to look at the fact that Donnie has now dropped the possibility of passing any tax legislation until much later in the year.

And.....I think that any tax legislation will have to wait till Donnie shows his FULL tax returns...which I believe will never happen UNLESS they are subpoenaed.

Now....the protest turns to global warming, science, and the environment.  I expect some BIGLY marches....

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 17, 2017, 03:51:29 PM »
Here is the same chart.....with the last two "channels."  There is clearly no "rocket science" here....only drawing short/intermediate term "channels" that contain the actual results.....and an "open question" as to what the next few years will bring:  Back down into the channel....OR....are we working on a new STEEPER channel with slightly accelerating temps?

I don't have the answer to that one.....only pointing out ACTUAL HISTORY.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 17, 2017, 03:25:34 PM »

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 17, 2017, 03:23:06 PM »
More shoes to drop..... Be sure to read the following article.  You will begin to see just how much trouble Donnie boy is in.

Also....remember when Michael Flynn couldn't stop talking?  And then....all the sudden he "went quiet.?"  He went quiet....right before he talked with the feds about getting immunity.  The feds didn't give him immunity.

The same has also happened to my pal Rudy Guilianni.  He wanted immunity.  It hasn't been given to him.  And Rudy has been as quiet as a mouse.

The next to go Representative Nunez.  I don't expect him to be saying much these days.

And then there is one of my favorite weasel's in government.....Jason Chaffetz of Utah.  I think he will also be going quiet in the coming weeks as he discovers his ass is grass.

This is going to get VERY UGLY for a LOT of folks.....  The Democrat's have to be tickled pink.  If I were them.....I would be painting every Republican Congressmen with the "Trump brush".

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: April 16, 2017, 09:37:39 PM »
Buddy I must say these blue and red straight "trend" lines sure look like cherry-picking. I too fear that there has been some acceleration in SLR in the last few years, but this chart does not show a doubling. The 2010 low was not representative of the previous trend, but its biggest negative anomaly instead. The data points since around 2014/2015 that are above the black trend line are interesting and disturbing but not long enough to form a certain signal.

Yes....I can certainly accept that critique.  Changes in TREND are a tricky thing.....because you never know until AFTER they happen.  And differentiating between (1) short term, and (2) intermediate term is fraught with pot holes.

But think about 2 things:

(1) I was ONLY pointing WHAT ALREADY HAS HAPPENED....and what MIGHT HAPPEN over the coming decade or so. is DEFINITELY short term.  Could it just be a short term "blip"....and then head back DOWN to the LONGER TERM TREND LINE? could.

(2) I happen to think that many if not MOST climate scientists have underestimated many things within the climate change realm because they have a CONSERVATIVE BIAS. I think we have begun to see that OVER CONSERVATIVE BIAS come to light over the past few years.....and I think it will continue to "unwind" as accelerating physics play out.

One DISADVANTAGE I have is that I am NOT a "trained scientist".....let alone a trained CLIMATE SCIENTIST.  So that is a disadvantage.

One ADVANTAGE I have is that I am NOT a "trained scientist".....let along a trained CLIMATE SCIENTIST. cuts BOTH WAYS.  I am NOT "weighed down" by looking too closely at every twig and leaf....but instead am looking CLOSELY AT THE BIGGER PICTURE and then "drilling down" to see why "things are happening" on a larger scale (yes....drilling down into what CLIMATE SCIENTSTS are finding).

I have but two simple goals:  (1) Look to see WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING, and then (2) Look ahead to see where we are likely headed over the next decade and DECADES....and communicate that to others.

We'll see how the sea level plays out over the next 5 years or more....but I DO believe we are in an "accelerating pattern" that will play out over time.....  In the case of sea level rise....within the new "channel" that has been established.

NOTE:  I have input a zig-zag "black line" which shows the SHORT TERM "legs" within the LONGER INTERMEDIATE TERM CHANNEL UP.

Fundamentally.....I believe there will be MORE to come at HIGHER LEVELS of melt in future decades.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: April 16, 2017, 08:29:57 PM »
So that would be almost a doubling of the rate of SLR? From about 3 mm/yr to almost 6 mm/yr...

As those immortal words say....."it is, what it is."  We have formed a "channel with more slope to it" starting in about 2010.  That is what HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.  The only thing I have done is to "connect the dots".

UNFORTUNATELY.....the "fundamentals" of (1) increasing RATE of atmospheric temperatures, and (2) increased melting of the ice sheets (3) increasing CO2 and methane, etc...........SUPPORT the "technical view" of the chart itself (again....the FUNDAMENTLS form the chart....not the other way around).

The rate of sea level rise as noted by Dr. Hansen in his research has a good chance of being attained....and THAT will be a LOT MORE than 6 mm per year (20 inches per decade....2 INCHES PER YEAR if my memory is correct).   Of course....we're a long ways from that RIGHT NOW....but since we are accelerating, I'm afraid that is going to be all too achievable.

Don't look behind....LOOK AHEAD.



Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: April 16, 2017, 06:30:24 PM »
What is sea level going to do in the coming months and next several years?  Here is one possible look.....

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 15, 2017, 08:55:02 PM »
I would look for 3 things in the coming month:

1)  Continued SLOW deterioration in the poll numbers for Donnie.  I think his "bounce" is over.

2)  More bad info regarding the cast of characters that were around Donnie during the campaign.  This could be Rudy....Jason Chaffetz......Devin Nunez (head of the house committee investigating RussiaGate).....Manafort......Dumb & Dumber (his two male kids).  There are a WHOLE HOST of people that are going to go to jail for it could be any of a LARGE GROUP.

3)  BIGLY protests on April 22nd and 29th.  As it turns out....people really don't like being lied to after all.  Who would of "thunk it"?

If I had one or two months that I would be MOST WORRIED about Donnie doing something stupid in would be May or June.  Why May or June?  He now knows that there is a LOT OF SHIT that the FBI and others are digging he would have to act BEFORE TOO MUCH IS DUG UP.

We continue to be in a "transition" from (1) Donnie winning the presidency and having about half the people in the US believe or hope he will do something (2) the people who already didn't believe he was actually lying, now starting to see the error of their ways and bailing out.  It's a process....and some will NEVER leave....but many will.  And if he wants to throw a "hail marry" in an attempt to DO SOMETHING THAT MIGHT SWAY VOTERS/POLITICIANS TO KEEP HIM EVEN THOUGH HE WORKED WITH RUSSIA......then Korea is likely his last chance.  Remember....he is a sociopath....he will do ANYTHING, and he has plenty of others without ethics that will do the same.

But there seems to be a race going on between the FBI.....and time.  And Donnie is running out of time.  By the end of June or so.....there may be too much going against Donnie regarding RussiaGate. is MY BELIEF....that if he doesn't act before the end of June....that avenue may be cut off.  There is also the chance that China is able to get at least SOME ACTION by the North Koreans to "back off".....which would further work AGAINST DONNIE trying to do a preemptive strike against North Korea.

These continue to be uncharted waters for EVERYONE..... 

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 14, 2017, 03:27:52 PM »
The "process" continues......

1)  Things are starting to "percolate" on RussiaGate. pal Rudy is in DEEP SHIT, and he is looking for a way out.  Chaffetz (Congressman from Utah) should be getting nervous right now....because he was working with Rudy on the FBI angle.

2)  Comey's days are numbered.  It will be interesting to see how Donnie and Jeff Sessions (Attorney General) manage this one.

3)  Isn't it interesting how Donnie has whipsawed between "getting healthcare done".....and when it collapsed, "getting tax reform done"........and now, "back to getting healthcare done."  Truth is.....he knows he can't get tax reform done WITHOUT SHOWING HIS F**KING TAX RETURNS.  And the march this weekend will enforce that.  Donnie is in a "box" of his own making.  People are pissed about healthcare, and they are now getting more and more pissed that he hasn't shown his tax returns.

4)  Korea.  I hope the generals around Trump.....AND....the senior senators ARE WATCHING CLOSELY.  Because Donnie would do ANYTHING HE COULD to change the subject from RussiaGate.  And that includes a pre-emptive strike on North Korea.  Clearly there are other parties to this:  Japan and South Korea the obvious ones.  And then there is that little country next to N Korea....China.:)

5)  April 22nd and April 29th Marches:   These are two "opportunities" for people to show their displeasure with the direction of things.  I expect to see a LOT of marches AROUND THE WORLD.  And this will further expose Donnie and his crew and isolate them with their denying brethren in Congress.  PROTEST....PROTEST....PROTEST.... 

6)  The news around global warming continues to worsen (I know....shocking ;)).  This will likely only get worse THIS SUMMER as the Arctic continues on its way to what will likely be a new record low.   As well....northern Russia has been warm all winter and it continues.  These actual PHYSICAL THINGS will feed into a growing resentment and unrest about those politicians NOT DOING ENOUGH.....and will "feed into" the 2018 elections NEXT YEAR"DENIAL ISLAND" will NOT be a good place for politicians to be found sucking on their Margarita's.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 14, 2017, 03:01:55 PM »
American's gave the world Trump, in no small part by making Hillary, We Came We Saw He died - Ha Ha Ha, the only other option. If you want to mess with him by killing his dog, raping his daughter, or sinking Mar- a- Lago, you have my blessing. Just don't push him into blowing up my world.

NOBODY has to push him into ANYTHING.  He is doing it ALL ON HIS OWN.

Maybe you haven't heard.....THE ELECTION IS OVER.  Quit blaming Hillary for Trump's win.  And quit blaming Hillary for the things that DONNIE is doing.  IT'S OVER.  The same goes for Bernie's fans.  LET IT GO.

I have never seen so many people unable to MOVE ON. WOW....

We have a egotistical sociopath as a president.  FOCUS ON THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE.  Three things need to happen:

1)  Get him out of office ASAP (it's a process.....)
2)  "Contain him" while he is still in office (done by those around him AND by protesting.
2) The "system" (both political AND economic) needs to be improved (but this is a step by step process that takes a lot of time).  It can start NOW....but its a long process.

As Jim pointed out.....those are NOT mutually exclusive.....AND....can be done at the same time (and SHOULD be done at the same time).

I happen to believe.....that a LOT of GOOD will come out of the downfall of Trump.  As much as Americans LOVE to "hate on their president" (of either party)......the approval ratings of CONGRESS ARE WAY....WAY....LOWER.  And it is because they are SOOOO partisan.....and many of them crooked and in the wallets of lobbyists.   As an Independent....I HATE THAT.  And people are sick and tired of their Congressmen lying and blaming "the other side."

I think Trump is exposing a lot of people in Congress (not intentionally....but by their own actions)....and they will "pay at the ballot box" in 2018.  BIG TIME.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 13, 2017, 09:50:26 PM »
I suspect Trump, in an effort to deflect suspicion, may resort to armed, direct conflict with Russia.  He was never a hope for a more peaceful America than H. Clinton.  He's always been an impulsive, bullying hot-head.  He's now being an impulsive, bullying hothead with several nations, instead of just personal rivals.

Very possible.  He is about as "loose a cannon" as one could imagine.  He will do ANYTHING and say ANYTHING.  Easily the most dangerous president we have had in the last 20 years.

The one saving grace MIGHT BE the military folks around him.  But as I said a few weeks ago....if the Secretary of Defense leaves at any point.....then THAT would be a BIG RED FLAG that we are in trouble.   

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 13, 2017, 07:14:57 PM »
It all comes down to a matter of WHO is going to "blink first"?  Which oil company is going to be the first one to cut their dividend?  It's coming.....they can't continue to pay out dividends at the same rate AND try to change their business model by adding renewable energy to their mix.  It's just a matter of time.....and time is running out for most of these folks.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 13, 2017, 07:06:33 PM »
More deep water wells coming on line off the US shores. prices firm....more frackers in the US have been more than happy to up their drilling to take up the slack of the cutbacks from OPEC.

This is setting up to be quite an interesting market over the next year.  Saudi Arabia is chomping at the bit to take Saudi Aramco PUBLIC....but wants to do so at higher prices.  The market is stubbornly fighting higher prices, because the US frackers are taking up the well as new US deepwater wells driving down their costs, and now with the ability to make money when oil is at $50.  And how much longer will Russia continue to comply with cutbacks....since they are probably the least ethical of the bunch... truly is an interesting animal to watch. 

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 13, 2017, 05:45:21 PM »
“I have worked under six administrations with political appointees leading EPA from both parties,” Cox wrote on his last day on the job. “This is the first time I remember staff openly dismissing and mocking the environmental policies of an administration and by extension you.”

When the mocking starts to come from THE PRESS CORPS......then we'll see how Donnie handles that.  In the mean will serve as a WEIGHT on his administration.  As more and more people see the facts and basic physics in front of their will pull him down.

Who knows....maybe he will talk to an actual climate scientist FOR 10 MINUTES and figure out it really is caused by man..... ;)

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 13, 2017, 04:54:47 PM »
The "convergence" of (1) RussiaGate and (2) global warming (BOTH the physics AND policy around global warming) continues.

Donnie isn't going to be able to hide from EITHER the physical reality of global warming......OR....the political ramifications of his policies.  BOTH the physical reality AND the political reality are continuing to come together OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS.  And the negative impacts of RussiaGate will also affect the political impact from global warming:  They are BOTH negatives for Trump.

In the 1973/74.....Nixon had BOTH the Vietnam War AND his scandal to fight.  Now.....Donnie fights his own scandal AND global warming.

One thing I will continue to watch CLOSELY over coming weeks and months.....IS THE PRICE OF OIL.  I continue to believe....based on SUPPLY/DEMAND AND PRODUCTION....that oil is either going to struggle to maintain its price...or head lower OVER THE INTERMEDIATE TERM (ie through Septemberish).  The oil cartel has convinced their members to cut back on oil production in the short term....but the frackers in the US have been moving up their production to PARTIALLY offset that.  We'll see how that "settles out" in the coming weeks and months.

The Trump administration is HEAVILY impacted by "coal guys" and "oil guys".....and his policies show that.  And of course.....those policies impact global warming initiatives in the SHORT RUN.....and the EPA.

There are marches on the 22nd and 29th of THIS MONTH.  So we'll get to see how much "momentum" the social movement has OR doesn't have, over the SHORT TERM.....and we'll see if there is any impact on Donnie's environmental policies (I don't expect any YET).

The next couple of years you will continue to see the oil/gas/coal/electric utility companies continue to try and save their industries.  But....alas....over the long term, that is like trying to save the black and white TV.  The basic economics aren't there in the long run......and the basic physics aren't there over any time frame.  They are fighting an uphill battle.  And when they come down......politicians who have sided with them, will also come down (I'm talking about YOU Ted Cruz...and others who continue to lie for the oil/gas/coal/electric utility lobbies).

RussiaGate AND the continued move toward alternative energy (and that beneficial economic impact it has) will be the two overriding themes over the next 18 months.


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