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Messages - Jim Hunt

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1
But I don't expect any of them to bother answering your email


As Rob has already pointed out, it didn't take long for your theory to be falsified!

For the record, I'm not a climate scientist but I have numerous email exchanges and even telephone conversations with people that are. Sometimes I even get to meet them in person:

https://youtu.be/UYAaQ4iwdtY

Persuading them to "stick their head above the parapet" in public is generally a little trickier. Kevin Anderson needs no such persuading however! Re your final paragraph, get the popcorn ready:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/a-report-on-the-state-of-the-arctic-in-2017/

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
Lamar Smith comes to bury Michael Mann, not to praise him

2
Arctic Background / Re: Importance of waves in the Arctic
« on: March 26, 2017, 10:12:22 AM »
A couple of papers from Pierre Rampal et al.:

neXtSIM: a new Lagrangian sea ice model

and currently under discussion:

Wave-ice interactions in the neXtSIM sea-ice model

The amount of attenuation that waves in ice experience is the main factor in determining the amount of momentum transferred to the ice. However, definitive confirmation of any particular physical models for this is still lacking.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 26, 2017, 12:01:46 AM »
Does anyone know where to find HYCOM/CICE forecasts after March 21?

It seems to be up to March 24th now.

4
It would be an excellent topic if he had real experts instead of three bozos and an expert....

As a wag on Twitter pointed out, the Committee ought to be interrogating seeking the expert advice of another 96 climate scientists.

Smith comes to bury Mann, not to praise him.

5
At the risk of drifting off topic, may I take this opportunity to point out that whilst we debate how many angels can dance on the head of a pin the cryodenialospheric porky pie production line is cranking up to full speed once again?

Lamar Smith’s Show Trial for Climate Models

All in all there’s several “alternative facts” in just the headline and opening paragraph of the GWPF’s press release, which doesn’t augur well for the contents of the report itself.

We feel sure that Lamar Smith and the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology will nonetheless be pleased to see this report become public shortly before their planned hearing on March 29th entitled “Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method“:

We also feel sure they were pleased to view the contents of another recent “white paper” published under the GWPF banner. The author was ex Professor Judith Curry, and the title was “Climate Models for the Layman“

7
Arctic sea ice / The Buoys Are Back in Town
« on: March 25, 2017, 11:30:57 AM »
The buoys are back in town. Or in the Beaufort Sea actually:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A

Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):

Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm

Current Buoy Data (03/23/2017):

Pos: 72.82 N, 146.61 W
Air Temp: -24.66 C
Air Pres: 1012.43 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 93 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017):

Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

See also: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/UpTempO/Data.php

8
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 24, 2017, 10:51:14 PM »
Some videos of the drop to Zhalyuzi-2 via Irina Orlova's YouTube channel:

https://youtu.be/_kQqOPHY8R8


9
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 24, 2017, 10:45:41 PM »

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 10:32:47 PM »
An open access paper from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition:

"Turbulent heat and momentum fluxes in the upper ocean under Arctic sea ice"

Oceanic heat flux is weakly positive in winter over the Nansen Basin during quiescent conditions, increasing by an order of magnitude during storm events. An event of local upwelling and mixing in the winter-time Nansen basin highlights the importance of individual events. Spring-time drift is confined to the Yermak Plateau and its slopes, where vertical mixing is enhanced. Wind events cause an approximate doubling of oceanic heat fluxes compared to calm periods. In June, melting conditions near the ice edge lead to heat fluxes of O(100 W m−2). The combination of wind forcing with shallow Atlantic Water layer and proximity to open waters leads to maximum heat fluxes reaching 367 W m−2, concurrent with rapid melting.

11
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 23, 2017, 02:28:26 PM »
Returning closer to topic, though still a bit offside,* there is a scheduled persecution by Rep. Lamar Smith's Space, Science and Technology Committee (House of Representatives)


Absolutely on topic Susan! What's more Alice and I are on the case even as we speak!!

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/844887203947909124

Shock News! We've even entered the very heart of darkness!!

http://archive.is/B0bEo#selection-3207.0-3207.53

When do you suppose will be the optimum time to turn up the heat under the popping pan?

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 23, 2017, 09:44:41 AM »
I'd noticed that too Wipneus!

Meanwhile OSI-SAF tell me:

Concerning the ice type product, there is as you point out a systematic problem that gives multi-year ice in some young ice areas, and we are working on improving that.

and

Concerning the new AMSR2 product, we will provide a quicklook archive of product images as for SSMIS. This should be available in a couple of weeks.

13
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 22, 2017, 04:56:36 PM »
According to the Barneo Facebook page the expedition helicopters have reached Severnaya Zemlya:

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 12:13:01 PM »
Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.


I'd noticed that too Neven:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-220245

The Hamburg Uni processing pipeline seems to be gummed up at the moment, but this is how things looked yesterday:


15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 10:22:11 AM »
I find it hard to imagine with this sort of ice movement having the Barneo ice camp happen at all this year.


It seems the 'copters are grounded in Khatanga by weather at the moment:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905.msg107203.html#msg107203

Maybe the search for a solid floe will start tomorrow?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: March 22, 2017, 01:19:47 AM »
They just thought their Party was silly to ignore the obvious, but that wasn't enough to drive them away...


Facts are not enough Jim?

http://AFWetware.org/2017/03/21/the-problem-with-facts/

17
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 22, 2017, 01:17:11 AM »
My very good friend Alice F. has somehow managed to dig up some more dirt on David Rose:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/844339885959983104

Do you suppose his toes are starting to feel a trifle toasty yet?

18
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 21, 2017, 10:50:43 PM »
Although there's nothing on the NPEO web site itself yet, apparently:

No web cams were deployed in 2016, due to funding constraints, however deployments are planned for Spring 2017.


https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/gallery_np.html

Meanwhile according to yesterday's report on the Barneo Facebook page:

On March 15, a truck with landing equipment set off from Moscow to Murmansk and yesterday it arrived at the destination.

On March 17, another truck and a trailer with loaded platforms and tractors started out from Moscow to Tver (Migalovo airport). The landing party also arrived there. On March 18, the paratroopers with platforms and tractors flew to Murmansk by Il-76. They will be preparing the platforms for airdrop at the Zhalyuzi point.

On March 19, two helicopters of the AeroGeo a/c flew up in Krasnoyarsk and followed the route Krasnoyarsk – Podkamennaya Tunguska – Igarka - Khatanga.


Irina Orlova isn't too keen on the current weather situation:

Today's weather did not allow helicopters to fly from Khatanga.

It seems that the helicopters again tomorrow will not be able to fly out.

Only on 23 March, the weather may change.


For the Russian language experts amongst us, a TV report on the Barneo 2017 preparations is available here:

http://www.tv21.ru/news/2017/03/20/barneo--2017-ekspediciya-na-severnyy-polyus-gotova-k-startu

19
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 21, 2017, 07:31:43 PM »
<snip; N.>

I'd love to see what's on your cutting room floor too Neven!  ;D

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 04:41:06 PM »
A better look at the Laptev

Quite so. The Suomi "Nighttime Imagery" is a useful addition to the Worldview toolkit.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 03:46:27 PM »
I had to laugh too.  ;)

Snow White is disgusted. Blatant gender discrimination! How high is the glass ceiling in the Arctic?

22
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 21, 2017, 03:42:14 PM »
Vigilius doesn't seem to have taken the hint yet, so with thanks for the heads up, albeit in the wrong place:

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/03/russias-north-pole-camp-making

The copters type Mi-8T on Sunday morning took off from Krasnoyarsk with course for the north. They will have pitstops in Igarka, Khatanga and on the island of Sredny, Severnaya Zemlya, before they make it all the way to the North Pole, aviation company Aerogeo informs.

The eleven people on board are not only pilots and aircraft technicians, but also experienced polar experts. They will first identify an ice floe suitable for the Barneo-2017, and then help facilitate the delivery on site of people and goods.


Plus some "Shock News!"

It has been speculated about a possible visit to site of President Vladimir Putin. According to SeverPost, the President might go to Barneo ahead of his attendance at the Arctic Forum in Arkhangelsk late this week.


Perhaps the Norwegian powers that be will have second thoughts again this year?

23
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 21, 2017, 03:28:34 PM »
I do not remember saying anything to you.


You have a remarkably short memory Jim. Allow me to refresh it for you:

Don't you understand English at all?

24
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 21, 2017, 09:53:28 AM »
Neven - You haven't moderated Jim W's apology have you?

Jim W. - At the risk of repeating myself, you've flung the vaguest of insults loudly in my direction. Please state your case or apologise.

Alternatively, in some words I picked up off ex Prof. Judy’s cutting room floor:

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/expose-david-rose-does-not-understand-baselines/#comment-91207

Thank you for your attention.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 20, 2017, 03:48:49 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?


5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!

1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/

2. Ditto the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

3. Ditto the Laptev and East Siberian Seas

4. How many (and how deep, warm, wet) spring cyclones spin around the Arctic Ocean

5. How the snow melt progresses across Canada, Alaska and Siberia

Next please!

26
Eric steig
2017/03/20
Jim hunt: your question being whether we “saw this coming”?


In case it's not obvious, Crandles' quote was extracted from The Stoat. One of my follow up questions for Eric over there:

Any thoughts on this recent comment of mine at Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog?

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/03/lowest-maximum-on-record-again.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d26c9d01970c#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d26c9d01970c

27
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 20, 2017, 09:48:08 AM »
No wonder I tend to ignore you when you say anything other than pure direct data.  You are asking me to waste my time before giving me a reason to waste it.

Don't you understand economics at all???????


Jim - I've recently spent many happy hours in the company of the deplorable denizens:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/

Your tactics are identical to theirs.

Please stop being so patronising. Stop the ad homs. State your case, if you have one.

28
In response to a number of posts discussing the issue of communication with a general audience and whether scientists in general or the authors here should be criticized for their language/format/style; here is an example of the climate denialist reaction; “Natural Variability’s Role in Arctic Sea Ice Decline Strengthens Case for Lukewarming”


Thanks for the heads up. However in response to your posts discussing climate denialist communications perhaps I might take this opportunity to criticize your style? Please do not give the likes of Messrs Michaels and Knappenburger the oxygen of publicity by linking to their hogwash. Instead link to archived versions like this one:

http://archive.is/wbTfu

Here is a list of such archived climate denialist reactions:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#AltDenialist

Here once again is a further helpful hint:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#comment-219940

I take it you are aware that the lunatics are now in charge of the asylum?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/#comment-220045

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 19, 2017, 11:15:17 PM »
If you have panoply installed you can plot from the .nc file.

I do have Panoply installed, so sure. I've even been beta testing some improvements. Nonetheless it does still seem as though the OSI-SAF web site is somewhat broken in the AMSR2 department.

30
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 19, 2017, 06:31:51 PM »
An article on the self same alleged “correction”:

"Don’t Panic! It’s Just Another Climategate 2 Correction!!"

Last night the Mail Online web site... published an excuse for a “correction” to the egregious inaccuracy published on February 19th 2017 as part of David Rose’s self christened “Climategate 2” campaign in the Mail on Sunday.

One of the numerous problems with the Mail and the GWPF’s version of these recent events is that none of the UK Met Office insiders I have contacted have any idea what the Mail might be blathering on about.




31
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 19, 2017, 06:23:19 PM »
Did you really expect me to spend 2 hours???

I most certainly do, if that's how long it takes.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 19, 2017, 04:49:10 PM »
I can't seem to figure out how to capture the image.


Try using the .GIF versions instead of the .PDFs

Here's the one you mention:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/

Here's how the brown bits got there:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/

33
Welcome Andrew,

I find this coincidence highly improbable.


Here's yet another "coincidence" for you to consider, extremely hot off the (literal!) presses:

"Don’t Panic! It’s Just Another Climategate 2 Correction!!"

Snow White’s very good friend Alice F. with her planet-wide patent pending hyper-sensitive wetware alternative facts detector is now on the case:

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 19, 2017, 03:17:51 PM »
Perhaps it is fixed now

My first link leads to the NetCDF files, but if you click through my second link to the AMSR2 images I can still only access the SSMIS ones. The "Ice-Conc-Amsr" product menu option doesn't currently exist as far as I can tell.

35
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 19, 2017, 09:15:21 AM »
Thanks Jim.

Now there is an idea. How about organised twitter storms at POTUS on strategically agreed upon data

Well I'm certainly not going to argue with that proposition! See also:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/tweet-or-not-at-donald-trump.html

In related news:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/843239042238025728

36
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 19, 2017, 12:32:24 AM »
Business opportunities and climate change - ExIST quarterly event - March 2017 ?

That's the one Jim. What's your question?

37
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 19, 2017, 12:30:43 AM »
The Mail on Sunday have just issued an apology for a "correction" to the same egregious error as the GWPF a few days ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/climategate-2-episode-3-of-david-roses-epic-saga/#Mar-18

We won't get fooled again. Will we?

38
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 18, 2017, 09:34:21 PM »
Jim W - This is probably of no interest to you, but I recently had a long discussion at the UK Met Office about their "unified" model that handles both their "weather" and "climate" forecasting. Here you go:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg106820.html#msg106820

Now what exactly is the point that you are endeavouring, but failing, to make? You've presumably heard the old adage attributed to George Box that "all models are wrong, but some of them are useful"?

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewables Reach a Tipping Point...
« on: March 18, 2017, 08:08:41 PM »
Here’s a long video of the first ever public event at the Met Office’s new High Performance Computing Complex near Exeter:



https://youtu.be/lE7fDp3kxqo?t=14m30s

The broad theme was the Exeter City Futures project, which aims "to make the region congestion free and energy independent by 2025". I was in attendance, and if you skip to the “Questions” section at the end you can even see me asking the UKMO's Vicky Pope a tricky question! I asked another question later too.

After that I had a long chat with David Underwood, since nobody else seemed terribly interested in what 16 petaFLOPS and counting might ultimately be capable of. Arctic sea ice inevitably entered the conversation. David said he was proud of the UKMO’s “unified” model’s performance in that regard. In ~3 yrs the ocean and atmospheric components of their model are due to become “close coupled”, at which point their sea ice predictions should improve as well.

The proof of that pudding will be in the eating of course!

P.S. My old trick for embedding a YouTube video doesn't seem to work anymore. Does anybody know the secret, if there still is one?

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 18, 2017, 08:02:41 PM »
I believe that this would show this year being slightly higher than previous years.


This years numbers should be getting a boost:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-219974

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 18, 2017, 07:18:40 PM »
Shouldn't the title of this thread be "The 2017 Melting Equilibrium Month"?

Traditionally we only have a "freezing" and then a "melting" thread each year.

YMMV of course, but I reckon the loss of over 200k in two days could reasonably be described as "melting". Mind you this thread was started quite a while ago!

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 18, 2017, 07:05:57 PM »
Yet another Arctic cyclone drops below 970 hPa MSLP. The synoptic chart is from 1800Z last night:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-219974

43
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 18, 2017, 05:46:02 PM »
My good friend Alice F. has just tweeted @POTUS:

https://twitter.com/AF_Wetware/status/843137734692749313

Any chance of a "retweet" or three?

44
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 18, 2017, 05:42:50 PM »
My good friend Alice F. has just tweeted @POTUS:

https://twitter.com/AF_Wetware/status/843137734692749313

Any chance of a "retweet" or three?

45
I've only seen the abstract, so perhaps the full paper explains this better.


Please see:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#PDF

Please also scroll down a bit, then follow the instructions:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#Mar-18


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2017, 08:33:30 AM »
Is this the lowest of the highs on record?


This is for the NSIDC daily numbers rather than the 5 day average, but yes:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-maximum-extent/#Mar-18

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 17, 2017, 05:35:14 PM »
A new AMSR2 based product from OSI-SAF/EUMETSAT (OSI-408) is supposed to be operational by now:

http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/amsr_ice_conc_long_description.html

However the link to the associated maps seems to still end up on the SSMIS based version:

http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/index.html

I've emailed OSI-SAF about the "issue", but with no response as yet.  Can anybody else find them?

48
Is it possible that a paid denier could infiltrate a group of otherwise solid scientists with the purpose of such wording.


Well, if you're into conspiracy theories then there is speculation at Stoat about the lead author's links to Big Willie Soon:

http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2017/03/15/influence-of-high-latitude-atmospheric-circulation-changes-on-summertime-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-58437

49
Perhaps I might once again direct the attention of one and all to Michael Mann's Twitter discussion with Axel Schweiger and Eric Steig:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#Scientists

as well as my own initial question?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#Q1

All this excitement in the Twittosphere and elsewhere leads one to wonder whether Ding, Schweiger et al. saw (or should have seen?) all this coming, and if so what might have been done differently?

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 15, 2017, 10:57:01 PM »
Does anyone have any comments on the paper that came out on Monday in Nature Climate Change


I have a whole article on the topic, albeit with the emphasis thus far on the reporting of the paper rather than the substance of it:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/

All this excitement in the Twittosphere and elsewhere leads one to wonder whether Ding, Schweiger et al. saw (or should have seen?) all this coming, and if so what might have been done differently? In any event this story is set to run and run and run and……

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