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Messages - Jim Hunt

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1
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 22, 2017, 05:05:26 PM »
The final drift map from Barneo 2017, including comparison with previous years:

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 16, 2017, 12:44:12 PM »
The AMSR2 regional area graphs confirm the effects of the recent anticyclonic winds:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221417

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 14, 2017, 06:08:55 PM »
Can you explain the attached graph? Is that air temperature, per hour, on the 12th of April?


Wot Crandles said. A more detailed explanation can be found at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/

It's not yet updated with the addition of air temperatures though..

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 14, 2017, 09:49:55 AM »
Several other O-Buoys have previously managed to survive the winter. Number 9 for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#OBuoy9

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 14, 2017, 09:31:20 AM »
There's no sign of any activity on the North Pole Environmental Observatory web site, but nonetheless there is now an ice mass balance buoy in situ near the North Pole:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017B

To celebrate I've updated the IMB buoy temperature profiles slightly. The dotted lines at the left show maximum and minimum air temperature over the preceeding 24 hour period. The thermistor 1 reading is now in column 2.

As also reported by the the 2 Degrees North Pole Expedition, it's warming up in the area.

Current Buoy Data (04/12/2017):

Pos: 89.19 N, 30.07 E
Air Temp: -15.56 C
Air Pres: 1020.69 mb
Snow depth : ? cm
Ice thickness : 172 cm

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Operation IceBridge - Arctic Spring 2017
« on: April 12, 2017, 10:52:40 AM »
A set of stunning photographs from Mario Tama, embedded with Operation IceBridge this year:

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/04/above-canada-and-greenland-with-nasas-operation-icebridge/521733/

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 12, 2017, 08:52:02 AM »
Apparently they have replaced it with a new product called Worldview.


Worldview isn't new. It's been around for years:

http://econnexus.org/a-new-world-view-from-nasa/

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 12, 2017, 08:49:37 AM »
The latest Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#Apr-12

Apart from confirming that March monthly extent was lowest in the satellite record there's also this:

New work by an international team led by Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska Fairbanks provides strong evidence that Atlantic layer heat is now playing a prominent role in reducing winter ice formation in the Eurasian Basin, which is manifested as more summer ice loss. According to their analysis, the ice loss due to the influence of Atlantic layer heat is comparable in magnitude to the top down forcing by the atmosphere.


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 09, 2017, 01:28:14 PM »
A closer look shows the openings in the Beaufort are freezing over fairly quickly, not really unexpected this time of year, in my humble opinion.

IMHO too. Hence my "as far as AMSR2 is concerned" proviso, and the "in 2016 the early open water mostly refroze over the next couple of weeks" at my link.

10
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 09, 2017, 09:22:17 AM »
Barneo is still heading in the general direction of the Fram Strait.

Meanwhile the 2 Degrees North Pole Expedition is heading in the general direction of Barneo, over some rather tricky terrain:

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 09, 2017, 09:16:00 AM »
Open water (as far as AMSR2 is concerned) is appearing in the Beaufort Sea at almost exactly the same time as last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221357

12
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 06, 2017, 09:34:02 AM »
Video of the first An-74 landing on Barneo 2017:

https://youtu.be/nTh02a3SUBo

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 05, 2017, 10:32:13 AM »
A couple of previous moonshots:

14
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 04, 2017, 11:52:01 AM »
Fresh from the Barneo Facebook page:

Two technical flights of the Antonov-74 from Longyearbyen have landed at Barneo airdrome. It is officially confirmed that the ice runway meets all the standards and Barneo starts 2017 season!

All the team is on the ice constructing the camp. Also two groups of skiers have already arrived at Barneo with the second technical flight. They are going to pass the distance of two degrees to the Pole.

Tomorrow Barneo airdrome will work according to the schedule. Today there is a delay - the skiers who were supposed to fly to Barneo this morning will be there tonight, after the 3rd technical flight.



15
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 04, 2017, 11:40:39 AM »
An intriguing artifact at the top of this webcam image in the dead of night:

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 04, 2017, 11:15:23 AM »
According to IMB buoy 2017A it's now sitting on ice over 1 meter thick:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221215

Current Buoy Data (04/03/2017):

Pos: 72.90 N, 147.10 W
Air Temp: -25.88 C
Air Pres: 1021.52 mb
Snow depth : 9 cm
Ice thickness : 102 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)

Snow surface accumulation: 9 cm
Ice bottom growth : 17 cm

17
Many thanks for all your interesting/burning/critical/constructive comments and questions on our paper and my thoughts.


Many thanks for taking the time and trouble to provide so much input here. I have taken the liberty of reproducing your comment (together with one of Rob's) over at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#comment-221177

I hope that's OK with you both? Please let me know ASAP if not!

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 02, 2017, 03:06:04 PM »
Arctic Sea Ice Currently Taking a Hit From All Sides


My own analysis of the current situation, especially for the benefit of Rep. Lamar Smith!

Facts About the Arctic in April 2017

Some extra graphs to add to the collection. All in all, the prognosis is not good. Both in Washington DC and much further north.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 01, 2017, 05:27:27 PM »
Ice mass balance buoy 2017A isn't updating daily like in the good old days. This is the latest available info:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A

Current Buoy Data (03/27/2017):

Pos: 72.81 N, 146.57 W
Air Temp: -26.78 C
Air Pres: 1019.21 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 96 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 11 cm

21
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: April 01, 2017, 03:21:49 PM »
Much more on the aftermath of Wednesday's House Science Committee "climate science show trial":

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/the-house-science-climate-model-show-trial/#Apr-1

Judith Curry is doubling down on Mike Mann's allegations of "climate science denial" on her part:

Today is All Fools’ Day, but this is no joke.

What on Earth are Rep. Higgins and ex Prof. Curry on about with all this “RICO” business?

"Would you be able to at some future date provide to this committee evidence of your lack of association with the organisation Union of Concerned Scientists and lack of your association with the organisation called Climate Accountability Institute? Can you provide that documentation to this committee Sir?"


22
Developers Corner / Re: The Distributed Arctic Sea Ice Model
« on: March 31, 2017, 05:42:45 PM »
I am aware I am kind of resurrecting this thread


No problem!

A crowd-funded, collaboratively developed, Open Source climate model is always a Good Idea (tm) imho.


I won't argue!

The significant caveat here, according to my limited expertise in the subject, is that parallel climate simulation algorithms require high bandwidth and low latency interconnects between computing nodes. Hence most are run in batch mode on supercomputers, and do not lend themselves to a distributed environment.


True enough. Fortran + MPI seems to be order of the day. Perhaps that needs to change?

Note that some (many?) climate models are Open Source and their source code is freely available for academic purposes. But honestly, downloading this kind of source code which would take months to run on a desktop PC doesn't seem very practical to me.


By way of experiment, a cluster of Raspberry Pi Mark 1Bs running a "medium complexity" climate model:

http://econnexus.org/projects/the-distributed-arctic-sea-ice-model/raspberry-pi-planet-simulator-cluster/

Fortran + MPI!

23
Steig had a very nasty experience many years ago when Iago McIntyre came after him


Speaking of which, and only marginally off topic!

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/847696552046993409

See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/the-house-science-climate-model-show-trial/#Mar-31

24
Yet now Eric Steig decided to take his opinion about me and the process of expressing scientific criticism on his paper in this fine blog public in a rather unprofessional rant of 9 twitter posts

I tweeted Eric again:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/847764942665248768

I wonder if I'll get a reply this time?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 Melting Season
« on: March 31, 2017, 11:36:06 AM »
What does the web cam in Barrow look like now?

FYI it's now officially the Utqiaġvik (Barrow) web cam. What do you suppose this image proves?

26
Thanks for the heads up Niall.

Very interesting!

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:18:31 PM »
Roberts has spent the last seven or eight years working as the project manager of the Galileo Movement — a climate science denial group launched in 2011.


Which no doubt explains why he feels it's a terribly cunning plan to delete my comments to the effect that:

Tony Heller is a proven purveyor of porky pies covered in lashings of cherry sauce:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:12:46 PM »
Jim, I wouldn't even waste your breath with Malcom Roberts.


I understand your point of view, but nonetheless I do like to archive the deeds and spread the word about the lunatics increasingly in charge of assorted asylums around the planet. Sometimes other words come boomeranging back:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/censorship-down-under-by-senator-malcolm-roberts/#Mar-30

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Donald Trump's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:09:06 PM »
Jim, what's going on in the Arctic data scrubbing story?


As Victoria says, since TrumpLand came into being all sorts of climate data are being "disappeared" from US government web sites. There are assorted ongoing efforts to try and archive it before it's too late:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/climate-change-data-rescue-berkeley-donald-trump-nasa-department-energy-environment-a7580481.html

30
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 30, 2017, 11:19:01 AM »
Meanwhile in Vlad's absence, via Facebook:

Coordinates: 89º38’N, 058º44’E
Weather: light snow, visibility: 5 km, wind: 4 m/sec, temperature: -30ºС.

The work on the airstrip goes on: 50% of it is ready. There are many snow ridges to chop off and sometimes shallow pits to fill in. It’s just regular job on the strip.

31
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 30, 2017, 11:09:55 AM »
Russia Today "reports" on Putin's Arctic adventure:

https://www.rt.com/news/382701-putin-arctic-summit-tour/

The Russian president is touring Franz Josef Land, a desolate archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, to inspect the environmental cleanup effort conducted there. A day later he is to take part in an international conference on Arctic development hosted by Russia.

Vladimir Putin landed on Wednesday on Alexandra Land, the westernmost island of the archipelago, lying some 1,000km north of mainland Russia near the Barents Sea. He is touring the desolate part of the country to inspect the progress in cleaning up waste left behind by Soviet expeditions and military deployments in the past.

32
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:08:56 PM »
My initial report on today's House Committee on Science, Space and Technology hearing on "Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method“:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/the-house-science-climate-model-show-trial/

My YouTube feed cut out at the point Dana Rohrabacher got rather angry with Mike Mann! Correlation or causation?

33
Fallacious argument.

Excuse me? Peter was playing "what if?".

In particular, "what if natural variability is exactly the same today as it has been for the last 10,000 years?"

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 29, 2017, 01:01:03 PM »
Correlation doesn't equal causation of course, but for some strange reason Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts is censoring my comments on Facebook:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/censorship-down-under-by-senator-malcolm-roberts/

Don't "One Nation" advocate "free speech"?

There's a prime prize of a packet of peanuts for the first person to spot one or more of my comments in the wild on Facebook!

35
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:52:10 AM »
Retired Rear Admiral David Titley expresses his views on the House Science Committee hearing later today:

Should Climate Scientists Boycott Congressional Hearings?

We should no longer be duped into playing along with this strategy.

Despite sending many skilled science communicators to testify at the hearings over the years and even when scoring tactical victories, the strategic effect of participating at these hearings has been to sustain the perception of false equivalence, a perception only exaggerated by the majority’s ability to select a grossly disproportionate number of witnesses far removed from mainstream science (it’s not coincidence that Judith Curry, professor emeritus, Georgia Institute of Technology, and John Christy, professor of atmospheric sciences, University of Alabama at Huntsville, are called upon so often by the Republicans).

A better response would be to simply boycott future hearings of this kind and to call out these hearings for what they are: a tactic to distract the public from a serious policy debate over how to manage both the short- and long-term risks of climate change.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 28, 2017, 10:17:49 PM »
Herfried - Laughable indeed.

The only problem is it seems that in this day and age the lunatics are in charge of the asylum:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/#comment-220045

Bannon peddles that crap, and Trump falls for it?

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The WUWT Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 28, 2017, 07:40:20 PM »
You are very kind Terry, and the pleasure's all mine. Really! The ad homs are, on average, far worse at "Steve Goddard's".

However, please feel free to read all about some recent undeleted expletives at WUWT:

"Shock News! Alice F. Convicted in WUWT Show Trial!!"

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Piomas vs. CryoSat
« on: March 28, 2017, 03:32:29 PM »
...and am I correct in saying that in Beaufort, at least, the (few) on-the-ground thickness measurements (from the new 2017 IMBs) indicate that PIOMAS may itself be somewhat on the high side?


No, as Peter pointed out. If the buoy doesn't get crushed in a ridge it should give a good idea how thermodynamic thickening (and eventually melting) goes from here. 2017A will certainly be on first year ice, but we can't say with any certainty when the floe started to freeze. < 1m seems on the low side to me for ice that's been increasing in thickness all winter long, and the Canadian Ice Service maps show thicker ice in that area. However I haven't checked location/motion/temperature yet to see if that helps explain matters.

I've been too busy winding up Anthony Watts amongst others!

 

39
Jim,

As usual your latest post on your blog is a must-read, and I just read it with particular interest, because it is in many ways related to this thread.


Andrew - Thank you for your kind words. It may therefore interest you to learn that my very latest post also "is in many ways related to this thread."

"Shock News! Alice F. Convicted in WUWT Show Trial!!"

What is one to do, then, when Anthony Watts publishes these scurrilous allegations about one's character by the pseudonymous "Sunsettommy" under an article by David Middleton on a topic under much discussion here?



40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The WUWT Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 28, 2017, 11:36:14 AM »
My Twitter "conversation" with Anthony Watts is coming along nicely. My contact details are well and truly plastered all over cyberspace.

Meanwhile Watts and his band of merry mods have trampled this plaintive message underfoot on their cutting room floor:

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 11:25:49 AM »
An excellent view of the recently refrozen sea ice in the East Siberian Sea this morning, courtesy of the Terra satellite:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-220587

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The WUWT Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 28, 2017, 12:20:51 AM »
Only slightly off topic, my very good friend Alice F. has just been  "outed" by Anthony Watts in his time honoured, inimitable manner. Read all about it at:

https://archive.is/QF05J#selection-13147.0-13147.6

I don't think Anthony is a big fan of surrealist humour  :'(

See also: https://twitter.com/AF_Wetware/status/846485474969604096


43
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 27, 2017, 10:19:21 PM »
Barneo 2017 being established.


Not  so new on the ASIF though!  See the dedicated thread:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905

44
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 27, 2017, 12:22:41 PM »
Curry, Pielke, Christy -- all three superstars of climate denial will appear before the US House Science Committee next week!


My own take on that story:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/a-report-on-the-state-of-the-arctic-in-2017/

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
Lamar Smith comes to bury Michael Mann, not to praise him.

45
But I don't expect any of them to bother answering your email


As Rob has already pointed out, it didn't take long for your theory to be falsified!

For the record, I'm not a climate scientist but I have numerous email exchanges and even telephone conversations with people that are. Sometimes I even get to meet them in person:

https://youtu.be/UYAaQ4iwdtY

Persuading them to "stick their head above the parapet" in public is generally a little trickier. Kevin Anderson needs no such persuading however! Re your final paragraph, get the popcorn ready:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/a-report-on-the-state-of-the-arctic-in-2017/

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
Lamar Smith comes to bury Michael Mann, not to praise him

46
Arctic Background / Re: Importance of waves in the Arctic
« on: March 26, 2017, 10:12:22 AM »
A couple of papers from Pierre Rampal et al.:

neXtSIM: a new Lagrangian sea ice model

and currently under discussion:

Wave-ice interactions in the neXtSIM sea-ice model

The amount of attenuation that waves in ice experience is the main factor in determining the amount of momentum transferred to the ice. However, definitive confirmation of any particular physical models for this is still lacking.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 26, 2017, 12:01:46 AM »
Does anyone know where to find HYCOM/CICE forecasts after March 21?

It seems to be up to March 24th now.

48
It would be an excellent topic if he had real experts instead of three bozos and an expert....

As a wag on Twitter pointed out, the Committee ought to be interrogating seeking the expert advice of another 96 climate scientists.

Smith comes to bury Mann, not to praise him.

49
At the risk of drifting off topic, may I take this opportunity to point out that whilst we debate how many angels can dance on the head of a pin the cryodenialospheric porky pie production line is cranking up to full speed once again?

Lamar Smith’s Show Trial for Climate Models

All in all there’s several “alternative facts” in just the headline and opening paragraph of the GWPF’s press release, which doesn’t augur well for the contents of the report itself.

We feel sure that Lamar Smith and the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology will nonetheless be pleased to see this report become public shortly before their planned hearing on March 29th entitled “Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method“:

We also feel sure they were pleased to view the contents of another recent “white paper” published under the GWPF banner. The author was ex Professor Judith Curry, and the title was “Climate Models for the Layman“

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