When it comes to these temperature anomalies... which I've been watching since at least November... I really have to wonder how much they matter this time of year (over ice, in particular).
If there's a patch of the arctic where normally it is -40 C/F, but instead due to huge anomalies it is -10 C, so what? It doesn't melt, melt ponds don't happen... I feel like the thermodynamics don't change... until it gets above freezing.
Do we expect anything to come of these high anomalies, where temperatures still stay below freezing?
Heat flux out of the ice ( if we assume linear force formulation - flux proportional to ΔT) is a quarter roughly compare to normal... it takes four times as long to thicken at the same level..
... presuming enthalpy remains constant. The problem is, we have heat flow from depth, such that below a given temperature threshold, the ice won't thicken at all, because heat is replenished at the water/ice interface faster than it can be transferred out of the ice to atmosphere. At -10C, ice more than 1M thick will actually start melting from the bottom, given enough time.