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Messages - TerryM

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but, China....
« on: Today at 08:06:55 PM »
China currently has 2 HSR's capable of 302 MPH. The speeds will increase, but not to HL projected speeds. Regenerative braking at 95% is impressive!


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Railways_CRH380A


Terry
Moving people at these speeds is impressive, but when the New Silk Route is complete & freight begins moving at these speeds it changes the way the world works. No more "Slow boats to China"  :)


Terry

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Storage Becomes a Player
« on: Today at 07:28:51 PM »
There are only a few appliances that need to run 24 hours a day, such as refrigerators. Other things, such as washing machines and dryers could be more easily demand managed. Perhaps there could be a regulation that 24/7 appliances can only be purchased with an accompanying battery storage that will run it for xx hours?

Would greatly facilitate the demand management of the grid if the battery could be told to charge at cheap rates (lots of sun/wind) then run the appliance when supply is low. Could refrigerators also be made to be even much better insulated?

The government needs to set such regulations, then the market will provide the creativity. Remember when the car companies complained that they couldn't afford seatbelts etc., then magically they could? Corporations will always whine about new regulations, then when forced to do something magically find a way.


Refrigerators can easily and cheaply be made more efficient by insolation and/or by changing the access doors. (sliding drawers that offer limited access while leaving the rest undisturbed)
Appliances, (washers & driers) that only operate when electrical costs are below a certain minimum might sell well today. A relatively inexpensive addition to the unit that could offer substantial savings in some regions.
Air Conditioning and heating need to be ready to run 24/7, and more efficient designs are out there. The problem here is that squeezing the last possible BTW out of a system can make the unit so fragile, and so expensive to repair, that it may not be financially viable. This wall has been hit  in the past.


Terry

3
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but, China....
« on: Today at 07:08:59 PM »
Assuming that HL is the answer, and that it blows HSR out of the water, it's going to take decades to know this, and longer for the buildout.


How far ahead will China be because of their use of HSR by this point? Won't the additional money saved and earned by their HSR infrastructure place them in the financial driver's seat when the time finally comes for the world to change to HL? A 30+yr head start, even if that start is later replaced by better technology, may give them an untouchable lead.


IIRC when Los Angeles opted for freeways over rail they built I10 with an extra wide median to accommodate a light rail/trolley line, should that ever prove a better fit. I believe that if HL begins to look viable, the Chinese will build their HSR systems in a manner to facilitate a later transition to the newer technology.


The same poles that provide for land lines also serve as power poles, bringing the grid as well as the phone to your doorstep. Isn't it possible that the same infrastructure that today serves China's HSR might in the future serve the needs of their HL? Stations, roads and parking to accommodate travelers, right of way, possibly even tunnels built for HSR might serve dual purpose, then exclusive use as HL infrastructure.


Track laid 100 years ago to carry slow steam driven trains is being used today by diesel and electrified rail. I doubt that in 100 years China will not have found a use for the high speed rail they are building today.


Terry

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: Today at 06:30:22 PM »
I've no idea how many good jobs Texas and N. Carolina Republicans are tossing out of their States, but other, less Ideologically Pure States, might be glad to pick up their cast off jobs.
This could cost them in 2018.


Terry

5
"hugs the left coast" Petermann remains entrenched on the left, and the atlantic waters penetrate to it's grounding line. That implies that the atlantic waters remain 'energetic'.
I'm afraid I don't understand what you are saying.


If it's that Petermann Glacier is west of the predominant southerly flow in Nares and is therefore "entrenched on the left" that is of course correct. Petermann Fjord meets Nares Strait at the Hall Basin Gyre and a portion of the WAW (Warm Atlantic Water) that has crossed the sill in the Lincoln Sea crosses the deaper sill near the end of Petermann Fjord, then erodes the base of Petermann Glacier.


When you say 'energetic', are you referring to temperature, mobility or?


The fresh, cold water exiting from beneath Petermann Glacier is ~ 1/2 the flow of the Thames River. In general it exits the fjord flowing above and to the north side of the fjord - again hugging it's right side.


TomB
Going upthread to #403, page 9 and reading forward may help. Over a ~30 period the glacier is thinned from ~600M to ~200M, it's WAW that is responsible & that water is far beneath, and not mixed with surface water. The ice tongue is for the most part floating on fresh, cold water that has exited beneath the glacier mixed with WAW that has been chilled and freshened by it's contact with glacial ice.


Terry


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: Today at 04:57:55 PM »
...
while your general feeling/concern is well based i strongly believe that "ice-free by july" is vastly exagerated. i don't even believe we shall be ice-free this year but that's at least remotely possible.

should that happen it would have to be in september but as is said, i personally don't think so.
If we define "ice-free" as "less than 1M km2 of ice area",
Does the number being discussed include the Greenland Sea, Baffin Bay, Nares, CAA, even Hudson Bay?
Yes

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: Today at 04:50:29 PM »
Arctic Poodles are real. I found definitive proof:
https://arcticpoodle.wordpress.com/author/finnfinn1/

On Worldview I found one lake east of James Bay which is still ice covered, but a river flowing through it has carved an ice free channel. Is this 100% natural or do Canadians use icebreakers in these remote parts?
I believe you're looking at the East Main reservoir and the Grand River. No icebreakers but 100% artificial. All part of North America's largest hydro generation project.
Terry


8
Katabatic winds was of course the name that escaped me last evening, and piteraq winds in Greenland. - Getting old does have it's disadvantages, I can still get there, it just requires more time.


John22
Don't understand your "hugs the left coast", Coriolis effect forces arctic currents to the right, therefor hugging the right coast. In Nares Strait the southerly current flows by Ellesmere while the northerly current hugs Greenland. (except when gyres mess things up.)


TomB
Does knowing that the keel of PII2012 was as deep as the Cheops Pyramid was tall help?


Oren
The sill near the end of Petermann fjord is indeed deeper than the sill out in the Lincoln Sea, so it's the Lincoln Sea sill that determines the temperature and salinity of the water chewing away at Petermann Glacier. I agree that buttressing may slow glacial flow, but don't believe it has a measurable effect on Petermann.


Can I again do a quick plug for:


https://icyseas.org/


This is Andreas Muenchow's blog. He posts here from time to time, is passionate about sharing his extensive knowledge, and has risked much by insisting that the public has the right to know what their tax dollars have helped discover. The blog covers Petermann, Nares Strait & so much more. If I've messed up on this thread it's because I didn't understand what Andreas was saying & if his explanation differs from mine you can rest assured that his is correct.


Terry


9
The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: May 28, 2017, 10:18:00 PM »
Another good article by Bacevich about two of the people who sold the Cold War. And their acolytes Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Zalmay Khalilzad.

https://www.firstthings.com/article/2017/06/mr-and-mrs-fearmonger

sidd
sidd
I'm afraid that Bacevich himself has become a victim of the very fears that the Wohlstetters promoted. ISIS is represented as a bastard son of Al-Qaeda, not as a CIA proxy along side Al-Qaeda, the product of Brzezinski's manipulations of Afghan clerics and CIA trained and armed warlords.
Putin, he avows will never be a "friend of the West", but this is only true if we continue to demonize him in every way. Putin revived the French ship building industry, only to have his paid for ships remain undelivered. France paid heavily for this in non-completion fines as well as the loss of military sales that had been agreed on - but they did gain America's undying appreciation.


ISIS and Russia are not the monsters in the Castle of the West, but the supposed master, lurking in the shadows behind an organ playing the dirge that so many are forced to dance to, may be suspect. Follow the trail of gore.


Terry

10
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 28, 2017, 07:53:10 PM »
In what will be seen as the worst president EVER....and the worst cabinet EVER...the race is now on to see if Donnie can last longer than Nixon.  He has 15 months to do so...can he string it out that long? :o


WoW !!
GREAT !!


The only question now is who President Pence will choose as his running mate. I'm hoping for Jed Bush - a good family man - smarter than his brother - A Strong Man, Willing to Lead The Country. Viva Zapata Oil!


The options are really open ended. Sarah who understands the Russians she sees out her window, McCain who has one more war left in him, Scott Pruitt who will put a smokestack in every village and a strip mine in every park!


DOWN WITH TRUMP


FOOL'S SPEED AHEAD




DAMN THE CONSEQUENCES


DAMN THE CONSEQUENCES

11
TomB


Interesting discussion, but I'm off to a monthly dinner. If you ever stand at the foot of a glacier you'll face a very chilling wind (breeze is too soft a word) coming from the ice. There are two names for this wind, both which escape me for the moment. (one is specific to Greenland)


The sill is the lowest obstruction that water has to clear before it can get to the calving front. Because of stratification the depth of the sill regulates the temperature of the water that attacks the calving front. Lower sill, warmer water. Afraid this may not even be clear - but I really have to run.


Give my link above a read - its up to date and the author drops by here!


Have Fun
Terry

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 28, 2017, 12:02:11 AM »
Abiotic gas is a reality, and how we dispose of it could be a game changer.


Assuming we can get to where we're no longer adding man made GHG's to the atmosphere, we may also need to reduce natural CH4 seeps and flares. Even in areas where there are no financial benefits from capturing natural gas there will be environmental imperatives demanding that we burn as much methane as possible.
We've seen CH4 bubbling from ocean seeps, melting permafrost, and from under northern lakes. As AGW sets in we may need to fight not just the anthropomorphic release of greenhouse gas, but also the naturally occurring releases enhanced by the warming that we created. Is it possible that when we've stopped polluting the atmosphere, and have captured and burned all the biotic methane that the warning has produced, the abiotic seeps will still have to be identified and dealt with?
At present many abiotic wells are producing gas fed into pipelines and destined to drive electrical generation or relatively clean residential and industrial heating. We're heading toward more PV and wind sourced electricity, but we need to burn whatever methane we find rather than allowing it to spill into the atmosphere.
It may be that gas fired generators are more environmentally advantageous than the cleanest hydro or PV sources, as long as we're not actively drilling for new gas sources.
If we do nothing CH4 will find it's way into our atmosphere. If we burn it the released CO2 will be bad, but nowhere near as bad as CH4.
Terry

13
We're in a period of peak tides, with a couple of days to go, the break up in Lincoln can only let in more N Atlantic water which flows far into the fjord. I don't expect anything major in the next few days, but we'll see,

I don't see the connection between the break up of Lincoln Sea ice & more water flow into Petermann Fjord. What am I missing?
Terry

Maybe the almost consistent warmer air and SST anomalies going for months now, in the Nares, links then all? And this has led to the early Lincoln break-up, which will probably just accelerate now, and expand. And the SSTAs will infiltrate the bay, and, by summer, the glacier terminus, as air temp. anomalies settle over the glacier itself.

The reason I went looking for glaciers in the area was because of what was happening in the Nares and Lincoln right now. I thought a while back, I wonder if the event goes beyond just the channel and the 'sea'? Turns out there is probably a correlation.

Petermann's sill is located in the Lincoln Sea, but ice cover there has no effect because of stratification. I have noticed large MYI bergs caught in the Hall Basin Gyre that bumped hard against solid FYI in the fjord which may have put sudden pressure on the glacial tongue, but these didn't result in calving.
As far as warming the air over the glacier you have to remember that cold air follows a glacier down hill and blows any SST warmed air away from the glacier.


http://muenchow.cms.udel.edu/papers/29-4_munchow.pdf


Fig. 1 shows the location of the sill.


As far as I know neither SST nor ice cover has any connection to calving of marine terminating glaciers. The deeper, warmer waters undercutting the tongue eventually lead to calving. 


Terry


14
Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: May 27, 2017, 09:03:00 PM »
Brezenski is dead. I tip a glass to his victims.

http://www.mintpressnews.com/exporting-revolution-zbigniew-brzezinski-on-trial-at-the-un-general-assembly/210126/

sidd



An excellent must read article marking the passing of one of a handful of the truly monstrous people that exerted power during the last 50 years. Hopefully a stake isn't needed with modern embalming methods.
His MO may be noted when following current events in Washington. These are the tactics that brought many anti-western leaders to their knees, it will be interesting to see whether they bring down an American president.
 Soros and Murdoch are 86. Brzezinski was 89, and Kissinger is 94. Horrid to contemplate that all will almost certainly die peacefully. I wish I could believe in an afterlife.

Terry

15
We're in a period of peak tides, with a couple of days to go, the break up in Lincoln can only let in more N Atlantic water which flows far into the fjord. I don't expect anything major in the next few days, but we'll see,
I don't see the connection between the break up of Lincoln Sea ice & more water flow into Petermann Fjord. What am I missing?
Terry

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 27, 2017, 02:51:06 AM »
Westinghouse nuclear fuel assemblies were dumped by Finland and Czech after safety concerns and reported failure rates 1.5 times their competitors.


https://nuclear-news.net/2017/04/14/problems-in-europe-with-westinghouse-nuclear-fuel-assemblies/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ukraine_Nuclear_Power_Plant


An American judge denied Westinghouse's request to use some of the bail out moneys in their European operations, which limits Westinghouse's ability to resolve problems with their fuel rod assemblies.
Ukraine is now the only country still trying to fit Westinghouse fuel rods into Russian or Soviet built reactors. This may not end well.


Terry

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 27, 2017, 01:59:00 AM »
I can't imagine why anyone would object to having a nuclear plant built by non union workers hired by an already bankrupt company in their back yard.
I wonder how many years it takes to train a certified boilermaker, and how many of them there are that haven't joined the union?


Terry
BTW That 6 year time period is when some of the people are beginning to return to some villages near Fukushima, even though radiation levels are still high.


http://www.dw.com/en/fukushima-nuclear-disaster-evacuees-pressured-to-return-to-contaminated-homes-says-greenpeace/a-37639353

18
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but, China....
« on: May 27, 2017, 01:36:41 AM »
Let's hold off on being really critical of the US for a couple of  years to see if the Hyperloop works out.  If it doesn't then it's time to get serious about HSR.

At 1,200 kmh the 'loop would make the 7,769 kilometers trip in 6.5 hours rather than 33.
Don't want to hold off for too long, Moscow signed on with Hyperloop One back in 2016


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/22/moscow-to-explore-high-speed-hyperloop-commuter-transport-system

Terry

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 27, 2017, 12:53:53 AM »
Enlightening  ;)

20
Money does not need to be created through a private debt-based system, that is simply the financier and rentier friendly system that we currently have.

Between the mid 1930's and the mid 1970's, the Bank of Canada (owned by the Canadian people) directly funded a large amount of the Government of Canada's spending through the creation of debt-free money spent into existence. During that period, the Canadian economy grew very rapidly and with low inflation. Since then, the majority of the Canadian government debt is due to compound interest. The same could be done now to fund extensive renewable energy and energy efficiency investments.

The private banking system has usurped the sovereign's right to create money, which it uses to predominantly fund property speculation (80%+ of lending) and other socially non-beneficial activities (such as increasing business leverage to buy back stocks). Businesses tend to fund themselves from internally-generated funds. Just look at the current craziness in the Canadian housing markets, and the previous one in the U.S. Banks should be safekeepers of money, not creators of money and credit.

Unearned income (now referred to with the fancy title of capital gains) should be taxed at a higher rate than earned income (as it used to be up to the 1970's), this would go a long way to rebalancing things between workers and rentiers. Together with a none debt-based money system, economic and political power would flow back to the citizens in general and workers (rather than financiers/renters) in particular.


The bolded would make a huge difference - and rapidly.
BUT - How will it ever get passed as long as the rentiers own the politicians?


Terry

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 26, 2017, 05:22:18 PM »
Desperate....

State lawmakers want the public to pay to prop up coal
Lawmakers in Ohio are proposing to subsidize permanently two coal-fired plants.
As coal-fired power plants continue to shutter across the country, politicians at the local and federal level are trying increasingly desperate measures to keep the once-dominant fuel afloat.

In Ohio, legislators have proposed a bill that would permanently subsidize two coal-fired power plants, owned jointly by American Electric Power and other major electricity utilities in the state. The subsidies would guarantee income for the power plants, even when the cost of electricity was less than the cost of operating the plants.

Money from the subsidies would come directly from consumers, who would be charged higher rates to pay the plants’ guaranteed income. If the plants became profitable, the customers would receive a credit back for the amount that they paid.

The move has prompted criticism from environmental groups, which accuse politicians of forcing consumers to bear the costs of outdated technology.
...
https://thinkprogress.org/coal-subsidies-studies-politicians-977b2381aa3a


As more companies leave Ohio in search of cleaner and cheaper energy.


Won't they ever learn?
Terry

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 26, 2017, 05:19:58 PM »
How are the tariffs on Chinese solar panels working out?


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026481720400193X


Earlier tariffs of 250% couldn't keep Suniva alive, although it did double the costs for solar panels.


If the Eu and the US are hoping to keep solar viable by raising the costs of Chinese solar, won't this serve to slow the growth of the solar industry? The local jobs are in installation and maintenance, not building the components.


Solar World - Germany and the Eu's largest solar company just filed for insolvency.


http://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/solarworld-collapses-as-europes-solar-industry-eclipsed-by-china/58628608


Terry


23
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 26, 2017, 04:25:27 PM »
Neven wrote:
I don't think that middle finger was aimed at those who care for such things (for most people), except if they identify with the establishment/elites/oligarchs/0.1%. But why would anyone want to identify with the richest of rich?

I'm not sure you realize the depth of lunacy that is the average American psyche. Most Americans think they are one lottery ticket or one lucky break away from being 'the richest of the rich' themselves. So their counter-question would be, "Why would I want to be against the super-rich person that I am about to become?"

That's my take on it any way, but I'm pretty sure there's some poling data out there to back me up. But no time to track it down right now.


I think (hope) that it's only the very bottom rung that harbor such delusions. Those that I associated with in the South Western States were more or less resigned to their fate. Few recognized how poor and poorly educated they were when compared to those in other countries, but very few believed that they would personally break out.


The book/movie "The Hurricane" tells a side story of a poor, ill educated waif who wanted to be a lawyer. He was illiterate, but thought he could pull it off somehow. He was rescued from the ghetto by some Canadian hippies, taken to Ontario, given an education, and did become a lawyer, but you have much better odds of winning the lottery and catching leprosy than finding this kind of help.


Even in Las Vegas very few gamble to win, they gamble to prove to themselves and others just how undeserving they are. Very sad to watch, very difficult to empathize with those who encourage them.


Terry


24
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 26, 2017, 03:55:12 PM »
Who will follow Trump?


If Big Money Politics is able to limit Trump to a single term, it will have won a battle, not the war.


The war is over controlling enough votes to assure victory to whatever candidate BMP supports.
When Bush the Younger was their candidate the Republican Party didn't put up more than token resistance to his nomination. When he then lost to Gore, BMP required that the final vote be decided by an already thoroughly discredited Supreme Court. This was not the result that BMP was seeking, but since their man ascended to the top post the loss was largely ignored.


Hillary was the BMP's choice in 2016. Enough votes were bought that she won the popular vote, but lost the election. Jeff Bush had patiently waited his turn, but people were turning away from candidates that had BMP's blessing and because of the internet were able to organize behind Trump and Saunders. Candidates that in previous elections couldn't have purchased enough air time to be noticed.


Hillary's team I believe, saw Donald as a beatable opponent. Their MSM connections gave him free air time through the primaries, attempting to assure that they would end up fighting the weakest opponent that the GOP might field. The Donald undoubtedly was aware of this, and may even have willingly played the part of the spoiler. He had after all backed the Clintons in previous elections.


To everyone's surprise and shock Trump won. And Saunders, had he been the Democrats standard bearer, might have done better than the BMP's anointed one.


Enough history.
If Trump's successor, in 1 yr, 3 yrs or 7 yrs is a Big Money Candidate, I'll be mildly surprised. Much will depend on how Big Money plays it's present hand. If they continue to shut out progressives in California & hammer away at the Russians on the federal level I think they will be digging their own graves.
Just as having the Supreme Court decide Bush-Gore left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, so beating the war drums, rerunning the 50's witch hunts, and resorting to underhanded methods to keep progressives from control in California will empower everyone fighting against the elite.
Whether the next President is left or right, reasonable or nuts may be of less importance to the voters than whether they perceive him to be a tool of Big Business or a product of the internet age.


sidd had linked to an article that described our present status as being in an interregnum, akin to a period of political chaos. Exiting this chaotic period could lead in any number of directions. Personally I favor the peace candidate that recognizes that global cooperation and domestic leadership are necessary if we are going to survive AGW. He or she also needs to get GINI back on track and champion single payer healthcare.  :)


Terry

25
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 26, 2017, 03:38:47 PM »
Attempts at bringing down Trump...could be seen as Big Money Politics grasping for relevancy in a world that has digitally neutered them.

Yeah, maybe. Maybe. Though you'd have to believe that "Big Money" didn't have anything to do with Trump's "victory"--quite a stretch.

Anyway, I think attempts to bring down Trump are better seen as tens of millions of Americans appalled and horrified at what's happened to our country since January 20, and the things yet to come, and fighting back with every fiber of our being. It could be seen as tens of millions becoming "woke", and realizing now that sitting back and letting Putin and the Koch Brothers and ALEC choose our politicians and policies wasn't and isn't a good idea. It could be seen as people exercising their electoral muscles, and rising up to remind TPTB that a majority of Americans did not choose Trump, that a majority of American voters did not choose Trump, that a majority of those who actually casts ballots on November 9 did not choose Trump.


Jim
I don't have the figures in front of me but I believe that Hillary had far larger corporate donations than Donald. This is what I was basing my argument on.
The Kochs and ALEC are a blight on the nation. I don't believe even Canada has much influence on American presidential elections, and they are America's traditional trading partner. I do know that both the Republican and Democratic parties attempt to sway Canadian elections, but this hasn't been news for centuries.
If it's good for the goose - and all that.
The Electoral College is, and always has been an affront to democracy. Time to rewrite the constitution?
Terry

26
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 26, 2017, 02:06:26 PM »
I don't think that middle finger was aimed at those who care for such things (for most people), except if they identify with the establishment/elites/oligarchs/0.1%. But why would anyone want to identify with the richest of rich?

I think that both Tump's Tax plan and Trumpcare indicate that your assumption is wrong and/or naïve, as highlighted by Bernie's questioning of Trump's minion in yesterday's budget hearings:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/sanders-argues-with-mulvaney-in-budget-hearing/2017/05/25/56deab50-4163-11e7-b29f-f40ffced2ddb_video.html

Edit: I note that Trump's base still supports him after he has put forward his elitist tax and health car plans (not to mention his anti-science efforts to drain the swamp of intellectuals).
The bolded has been boilerplate Republican/Conservative policy since Ronald Reagan & Maggie Thatcher. These aren't Trump's visions, these are the visions of the party whose banner he carries. When Trump voices his support for these he's not reaching out towards some new Trumpian Utopia, but rather leaning back and down to pet the heads of the proles who carried him to victory.


Trump's victory, and Saunders popularity, can be seen as the end of the old political order, or as the end of big money winning every federal election in the US of A.


Attempts at bringing down Trump, or marginalizing Saunders supporters in California, could be seen as Big Money Politics grasping for relevancy in a world that has digitally neutered them. Grievously wounded they howl, tear up the furniture, and lash out in all directions in a last ditch effort to convince themselves, and their hired help, that they are indispensable, that none can run, and win, and rule, without their support.


They will win a few rounds, but despite the cacophonous screechings that drown out rational discourse, their time is over.


Terry


27
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 25, 2017, 11:07:17 PM »
Put a floating nuclear power plant just off one of the remotest parts of the Arctic coast, what could go wrong?

"Once in Pevek, even greater concerns bloom. Bellona has long maintained that the port’s far-flung location makes the floating plant a sitting duck for terrorists. Any accidents aboard the Akademik Lomonosov in such a remote location, where proper containment would be difficult, would be withering for the environment."

http://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/2017-04-russias-first-nuclear-power-plant-begins-tests-but-when-will-it-get-fueled



I believe these are similar/same reactors as used in the Russian icebreaker fleet. They seem to have proven themselves over a long period & it would take an exceptionally brave and well equipped terrorist organization to mount an attack so far North and so far into Russian territory.
The Ukrainian reactors that are/were being fueled with experimental Westinghouse fuel rods may be of much greater concern.
Terry

28
There are a couple of Jimmy Dore Show videos I could post (one on Feinstein, for instance, who I'm sure did wonderful things in the past, but now is a corporate stooge), but here's one on the California Democratic Party where a new (allegedly Corporate Democrat) chairman was 'voted' into office, despite progressives electing a majority of delegates a couple of months ago.

CA Dem Party Tells Progressives “Shut The F*ck Up"

! No longer available

The California fiasco was particularly troubling.
After progressives win the vote, they're told that there were Super Delegates, and that their open vote in fact only counted for 1/3 of the delegates. A lobbyist is then installed as party head, to the horror of the progressive wing.


With corporate funding flowing into the till, the party leaders seems to believe that they can get along without progressive contributions, and this is undoubtedly so. The problems occur at election time because virtually all Democrats, except possibly the leadership, see themselves as progressives.


Come election day the votes may simply not be there.


It's impossible for most progressives to vote for a Republican, no matter how badly his own party has abused him, but, staying home in droves is not only possible, it's increasingly likely.


As it stands I believe that those holding executive positions in the party want to assure their salary & pension. The easiest & surest way to attain this goal is to line the party coffers with corporate gold. This can also assure a rich life after politics when rewards for loyal service are gratefully handed out.


The only losers here are the citizens that always benefit from progressive policies, and any candidate or voter that actually cares about the issues.
The problem for the present leadership is that if they can't win elections, no one will pay them decent bribes, and they won't win many elections unless they play nice with their base.


The only way out may be to steal a page from the Tea-Party playbook and primary out everyone who won't play by our rules. We might lose an election cycle, but we might not. The survivors of such a purge might actually see the writing on the wall, and if not there is another primary ahead.


This may not work, but continuing on as we have been can not work.


Terry

29
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: May 24, 2017, 11:07:30 PM »
Trump is basically blinding NASA about climate change. This will be remembered as treason against mankind.

Trump's 2018 Budget Request Axes 5 NASA Earth-Science Missions


http://www.space.com/36989-nasa-budget-cancels-five-earth-science-missions.html

The other four Earth-science projects to get the ax in the proposed 2018 budget are the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite; the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3 (OCO-3) experiment; the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder; and the Earth-viewing instruments aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft.




He's following in Harper's footsteps, and it was this path that lead to Harper's crushing defeat.


We're hyper aware of denier screeds and may not realize how many potential voters care deeply about environmental issues. The loud, sometimes sponsored voices screaming out against AGW can make it seem a though they are the voice of the majority, but, no matter how many soc puppets one person manipulates, he still controls only one vote.
This budget will force every congress critter to put their name for or against the environment, then face their own constituents.
Bad for the environment, bad for Trump & bad for almost all Republicans. Should make the 2018 election interesting.


Terry

30
Electric autorickshaws (the very common three wheel vehicle in India and Bangladesh) would make an credible difference in both air quality and noise levels.

Bring 'em on....


And in Havana - as Coco Cabs


Terry

31
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 24, 2017, 12:54:19 PM »
I knew the sedimentary layer was deep, but 20Km? That is what she said isn't it? 5min + 6:30



When I listen at either point I may hear 20Km, when watching her lips at 6:30 I see 3Km. 3Km seems more reasonable, but I wonder if a transcript is available?


When the Storegga Slide's Tsunami smashed Scotland, (assuredly an accidental alliteration), was it the result of disassociating clathrates, or were the clathrates broken up because of temperature and pressure changes that the slide produced?


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026481720400193X


I believe S&S's most recent voyage on Polarstern? found the slopes of the ESAS to be relatively stable, and the large plumes to be further inland.   -not a lot of confidence in my memory WRT the last sentence -  If so, few worries of impending Arctic tsunamis, but increasing possibilities of a rapid release of large releases of CH4.


Terry

32
Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: May 24, 2017, 11:25:26 AM »
ASLR
The above is a reference to the Black Mat event in the '2017 open thread' found in "The Rest". I had found the connection a little tenuous, but different strokes.
One of many reasons for moving to Ontario was my hope that I could find some evidence of the comet here, close to where the largest piece may have hit ground ice.
Terry

33
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 24, 2017, 03:34:10 AM »
As I understand it:


Biotic Methane(CH4) is produced in septic (anoxic, or without oxygen) conditions as organic material breaks down (rots). This is what The West always taught in their schools.
Abiotic CH4 is produced under conditions of very high temperature and pressure, but without the need for organic material. This was taught in Russian schools, and is only now being taught everywhere.


I believe that the ESAS contains vast amounts of both biotic and abiotic methane. The deepest origins would be abiotic, then biotic from plant life extant before the sea flooded the area as the ice age was ending. These are trapped beneath a permafrost cap that has been melting since the area was inundated. Finally more, newer, biotic gas from organic material deposited in the now 3 K deep continental shelf that has been capped by clathrates (now melting) formed by cool, pressurized seeps.
The permafrost cap also produces new methane as it thaws and rots.


Terry

34
Thanks sidd!!


That we are now in a period of 'interregnum" seems evident. How, when, or in what manner we proceed from here is by definition both unknown and unknowable.


His history is accurate as I see/recall it, and if there was an attempt at prognostication I missed it.


We live in exciting times my friend. I hope we can survive them.


Terry
P.S.
Other than trying to steer away from war, towards a sane response to AGW, and a workable solution to the devastation that robotics is bringing to the exponentially growing population, we have few problems that can't be handled. ???


35
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 23, 2017, 07:36:58 PM »
They really need a new way of making predictions. Perhaps a crystal ball might bring them closer.  8)


Terry

36
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 23, 2017, 07:30:42 PM »
Possibly OT


Are the seepages off Svalbard possibly of a-biotic origin?


I believe it was near Svalbard where a Swedish team located hydrates in a region where biotic methane was deemed an impossibility. I look at seepage near the Mid-Atlantic Rift as possibly very different from ESAS, continental shelf, or delta seeps.


Terry

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 23, 2017, 07:14:04 PM »
I've seen some rest stops like that.  I expect we'll see more.

In urban areas (not dense city centers) I expect we'll see the rapid charging spots at grocery stores, gyms, shopping malls.  Places where people are going to want to go anyway. 

In dense city centers rapid charging may be installed in parking garages  where there's the mechanism for charging drivers if they leave their car in the parking space once charging has finished.  Parking garages and lots should be full of lower wattage outlets for those who park for hours.


In Northern Quebec each parking meter is equipped with 110v for onboard oil or battery heaters. Onboard slow chargers from 110v might be a cheap option, and a powered parking meter just makes sense everywhere.


Terry

38
It looks as though they still haven't worked out some of the problems I'd identified back in the day. Eat just one cute kitten and the lawsuit will break you. Even chewing through a neighbor's prize zinnia's won't win friends.


I think my vaporware would run circles around their hardware. ;<}


Terry

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 23, 2017, 05:27:20 PM »
This is unexpected - can't wait for PIOMAS.
Terry

40
Makita has earned itself a deservedly wonderful reputation.
Decades ago I contemplated the design of an autonomous lawnmower that would retreat to a solar doghouse to charge itself, then mow the yard at night, silently. Major problems were keeping it from eating basking kittens and rendering it safe from predatory types supporting themselves by hustling slightly used lawnmowers.
If these problems can be resolved, pushing a lawnmower may be passe. Otherwise Neven probably purchased the only lawnmower he'll need until they ship him off to an old folks facility.  :)


Terry

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 23, 2017, 10:41:42 AM »
What I see in the future along main US travel routes are charging oases.  Parking places with outlets.  Multiple restaurant choices (food court style).  Some shopping.  Place to walk the dog.  Free wifi.  Maybe even a short walking trail where folks could get some exercise.


Not too different from the On Route facilities in Canada. Plenty of truck & auto parking, half a dozen fast food outlets, wi-fi, convenience store, arcade games, dog walk and a few picnic tables in a small park.
Not ideal, but not a terrible way to spend a half hour or so.
They're located ~1 hr. apart on the major highways & would be far too expensive to site in urban settings primarily due to the size of the lot required.


Terry

42
Here's some recent data on Tesla battery performance.




Range falls from 100% to close to 90% over the first 50,000 miles or so.  And then looks like it will stay just above 90% for over  200,000 miles.

Tesla is moving to a new battery chemistry which they think will retain at least 90% charge over 300,000 miles.  Before 300k most cars have gone to the crusher.

That suggests that Tesla EVs will have a battery of some value to sell for grid/home storage work when the car is worn out.



Assuming they're manufacture with quality components I think that by 300k mi. one would be on your 3d set of brakes, 6th set of windshield washers, 6th set of tires, and be ready to change out the wheel bearings.


I bought a plug in lawnmower with a cord in my twenties, threw it away ~ 30 years later because I was tired of looking at it and I was making a long move. Replaced two wheels, probably 10 years apart, & went through a few long cords.


I replaced a condenser fan motor run capacitor after 30+ years of continuous use in a heat pump - the old man that owned the house oiled the motors every year and assumed the motor had finally given up. It actually pulled less amps than it was designed for, I assume because the bearings had been working in for 30+ years.


If you can keep away from rust, (living in the desert works well), don't mind driving a dated design, and don't mind a little maintenance, I can see buying one in your twenties and driving it until they pull your license - which they may never do if you opted for a self driving model ;<}


Terry

43
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 22, 2017, 04:46:39 AM »
Once again Neven shows the way!


I'm not an expert on politics, particularly American politics. I'm not great as an advocate, writer, or propagandist.
What I can do WRT Trump's presidency is to assist others by learning, and passing on, more about the present state of Arctic Ice, AGW, which is the cause of the Arctic melt, what measures might ameliorate the situation & what policies might worsen the situation.


I'd preached this stance a month ago. Rather than preaching, it's time to live the life.


If my background was in immigrant rights - that's the field I'd fight him on.
If my expertise was in Constitutional Law, political history, or economics, I'd attempt to bring him down using these, but, thanks to Neven's sites I have developed some knowledge about Arctic Ice & Global Warming. This is an area where Trump is vulnerable, and it's where I can be most effective.
People that understand what is happening in the Arctic, and how Trump's policies are liable to exacerbate the situation, will seek another leader - and it won't be Pence.
An informed electorate is the answer & Arctic Ice is what we as a group know the most about.
Why not play to our strengths?


Terry

44
Walking the walk / Re: Top climate-friendly actions
« on: May 22, 2017, 02:47:31 AM »
Bruce
I appreciated your links - actually lost a few hours tracing leads and links. Good stuff, but as an apartment dwelling consumer of, as opposed to a producer of foodstuff, I found little that related to my situation.
WRT silvopasture, I've probably mentioned in the past that a large number of free range hogs hid out in the oak forests near Buellton, ancestors of animals released during the depression when farmers couldn't afford to feed them. The lean, acorn flavored meat was a wonder, although the hunters that I knew hunted at night using bow and arrow, to stay ahead of TPTB.
Not everyone is capable of chasing hounds, drawing 100# bows, or dressing the kill. Having a person with such skills as a friend however is within everyone's capability.
WRT Refrigerant Management or Refrigerate Management, the linked article seemed to be addressing the want's and needs of the 3d world countries whose populace yearn to emulate 1st world lifestyles. That's a tough nut to crack!
The shortcuts that I've used in the heat of the Mojave desert all require access to water, and sometimes people willing to forgo the advantages of chilled air when conditions of extreme humidity occur, (not often fortunately in the desert). Unfortunately the situation in India where, as I understand it, the high temperatures are matched with high humidity, rendering most of my solutions as unworkable.
In Canada, for some time, air conditioning during summer, uses more electricity than heating during the winter. The situation in India, with AGW heating things even further, seems unsolvable without a huge die off - the exact thing we're trying to dodge.
How can moral people, comfortable during all seasons, ask have nots to swelter for the good of the world?
Requiring AC systems to be built using parts and systems that are maintainable, replaceable, and that have a reasonable lifespan, might be a start. The last three heat pumps I've purchased all failed because of a very cheap fan motor, in two cases the motors didn't even have oil ports to allow proper maintenance. A motor costing perhaps a dollar more would have doubled the working life of the units even if no maintenance was performed. Two of these units were manufactured in China, the third in Germany.
In small units like these the refrigerant is unlikely to be saved, they end up in landfills and the gas eventually escapes. What an unconscionable waste.
If this is the situation in Canada and the US, I can only imagine what's being sold to the poor in India. Few technicians, iffy power sources, and units designed to fail the day after the warranty expires. A recipe for disaster.


Terry

45
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: May 21, 2017, 05:58:51 AM »
For some reason your book won't allow me in.
I'm very familiar with the Murray Springs Site having Black Mat samples, a marvelous Clovis hammer stone rescued from a flash flood & some crumbs that are all that remain when mammoth bone is exposed to the environment.
IIRC Vance finally came out against the BM theory and I had read his thoughts on the subject some time ago. BTW the Murray Springs dig was finally written up, ~40 yrs after work was completed.


The dating on your beach mat is ~10Kyr too young, but I have read that finds have been made in Northern Europe, possibly England? One of the easy ways to eliminate false finds is a strong magnet - the BM contains magnetic particles. Enclosing the magnet in a condom will allow the particles to be removed easily.
Not aware if you have any ice age bones lying about in your region, but if the black mat is there, it will drape them, but never be found under them.
That is one beautiful beach - I'm envious!


We used the strata as a marker to know when we were close to ice age or Clovis goodies decades before anyone had any idea of what it was it why it was there.


Goodyear and Firestone are still the authorities when it comes to the BM, although a very well thought of anthropologist at ROM (Royal Ontario Museum) in Toronto has told me that after finding magnetic particles embedded the upper portions of most of the Mammoth and Mastodon tusks in their collection, he's become a true believer.
He gave a wonderful lecture a few years back for the OAS (Ontario Archaeologist Society) with samples, tusks and a magnet, ever brought a ball thrower for his dog as an example of a modern atlatl  :)  - I provided some samples from further afield.[size=78%] [/size]


Terry
BTW If I'm drifting into the pedantic please, gently, make me aware of it.

46
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 21, 2017, 04:43:03 AM »
A recent Harvard study found that the Media has been very harsh on Trump during his first 100 days - with the noted exception of Fox News. While this does confirm Trump's assertion that the Media has been very hard on him, I'm not sure that arguably the worst President in decades doesn't deserve arguably the worst press coverage.


https://heatst.com/culture-wars/harvard-study-reveals-huge-extent-of-anti-trump-media-bias/


What's almost lost in the article is that coverage swung from 90% negative to 80% positive when Trump unleashed his missiles against Syria - a clear violation of international law.
That the Mainstream Media approves of Trump at his most bellicose is frightening. America's media has dragged her into more than one unwanted war & apparently want's to repeat by beating the drums once again.
By pushing Trump into a place where every action is ridiculed or vilified - except when he rattles his swords - Trump will slowly learn that to call off the hounds all he needs to do is to bomb some brown people, possibly even bombing yellow people will bring favorable reviews.


Destroy Trump for the immigrants
Destroy Trump for the EPA
Destroy Trump for arming the Saudis
Destroy Trump for increasing militarization


so many paths are open


Praise Trump when he talks peace
Praise Trump when he lowers tensions with Russia and China


He's not the brightest bulb on the tree, but everyone glows while they're being applauded.
If the Media wants war with Russia, let them fight it.


Terry

47
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 21, 2017, 03:47:49 AM »
Tor
The most up to date & detailed information on Nares currents is likely to be found at Dr Muenchow's site


https://icyseas.org/


Andreas posts here and at Neven's Blog from time to time. He's very open to questions about his work & very free with his vast knowledge.


https://icyseas.org/2014/09/21/a-short-summary-of-nares-strait-physics/


Will take you to a summary of Nares Strait from 2014 - but much more is available roaming his pages,


Have Fun!
Terry

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 20, 2017, 11:31:47 AM »
Perhaps if I describe my local river valley, which had been described using the word(s)I'm seeking.
Is cuts along a long north south rise that was clear of ice earlier than the lower lying areas - The valley cut along this rise, at times being constrained by the towering ice still extant on both sides. The valley is very shallow in comparison to it's depth and the present river meanders through this wide valley.
There is a fair size moraine up stream from me where the valley had changed course from NW to NS, prior to the last glaciation the river valley had curved west at that point, but when the new valley was formed it straitened the old course and followed a Southerly course until it was swallowed by the then huge body of water that the Great Lakes now form the remainder of.
This might have formed a hanging valley if another valley had been it's destination, but because it terminated in a lake it ended up broadening even further and lost itself in the various beach lines above Lake Erie.
The portion on the valley that retains this unusual structure is not very long, I'd guess less than 40 miles.
I really appreciate everyone's efforts. As I recall it was a combination of English words, similar to Hanging Valley, or trough Valley, as opposed to Jokulhualp, which my keyboard revolts at attempting.
Please don't expend too much energy on this, Someone will either recognize what I'm trying to retrieve, or not. If not I've gotten along for a year or so with it being erased from my memory bank, and will survive it's passing.


Thanks Again
Terry




49
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 20, 2017, 10:51:22 AM »
Probably a little nationalistic on my part, but I wish Canada would run some East/West lines to spread Quebec's hydro to some of our coal burning provinces. ::)


Terry

50
Some cities have had one driver trucks with a driver controlled claw to pick and dump individual garbage cans for some decades. The new tech may not be a huge improvement in these cases.

Yeah, we have this in my subdivision, one person can run the truck whereas before there was a driver and two fellows retrieving cans from the front of the yards. OTOH they can only cover one side of the street at a time so it takes two runs through the subdivision to cover everything and the driver still has to get out part of the time when cars are parked too close to the dumpsters on the curb.
Hadn't considered parking, the Riverside region I'm in doesn't allow on street parking. Might cause problems for self driven pick up too. I suppose when we get to EVs everyone will want to park by their charger (in their garage), and if rent a ride becomes popular the number of cars, and street parkers would be drastically cut.
I suppose our trucks now need to do both sides of the street, I'd never noticed.
Terry

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