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Messages - TerryM

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Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 27, 2017, 06:30:32 PM »
I've argued that since we are adding to the store of atmospheric methane, the only number that should be applied is the highest value, If we somehow stopped emitting methane, then in 20 years or 100 years those values would be appropriate. At present we replace all of the methane that is being destroyed, and more, so what we're measuring today is what is effecting our climate today, not a figure that assumes that a portion of it will be gone in 20 or 100 years.
If the CH4 concentrations should drop, I'll re-think my position.


Agreed. The willful ignorance by the MSM and the scientists of the breaking of the 450ppm CO2e limit, even using the methane GWP100, is quite stunning to me. Using the UN IPCC-defined limit (i.e. CO2e vs. CO2 only) there is no carbon budget, striking that not even the likes of Anderson talk about this.

There is some logic that methane is relatively short-lived (14 years) and therefore if action is taken to reduce emissions, levels could fall relatively quickly. Given the complete lack of any such policies to reduce methane, and continuing increases in agriculture and natural gas production, this is not relevant. Also, this does not apply to nitrous oxide which is not a short-lived gas.
I've had learned, trustworthy types try to explain to me why my understanding WRT CH4 forcing is just wrong. I confess that I still don't understand why this should be so.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 27, 2017, 11:22:37 AM »
Gallup daily approval/disapproval spread back to within 1 % of the widest margin for Donnie.  With Donnie's ego on full's just a matter of time till that widens further.
All the polls proved their weakness during the recent national election, however, trends within a particular polling organization, assuming similar questions and similar demographics, can none the less prove useful.
If Trump's ratings are perceived as dragging down the Republican Party, they may at some time decide to impeach him, and to receive the accolades due for saving our country from such a mad despot.
This in turn could give them wins in 2018, 2020 or whatever election follows the impeachment.

Democrats don't need a win in 2018, they need a sweep. A sweep that not only changes the leadership of the House, but also a sweep where governors and state reps move from red to blue. 2018 is the election that changes how gerrymandering is applied in 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026. and 2028, a poor or average showing in 2018 will make it very much harder to capture the presidency in 2020, 2024 and 2028.

We shouldn't imagine that the Democrats can impeach Trump. The Republicans have control of both House and Senate as well as a stacked Supreme Court. If Republicans believe Trump to be an albatross 'round their necks, they'll not only cut his leash by drumming him out of the GOP, but they'll cheer and jeer on the occasion of his perp walk.

Republicans will claim that Trump stole his position on their ballot, that they fearlessly demanded the impeachment of this usurper, and that everyone should vote Republican, just in this one election, to show gratitude to, "The Party that Saved Democracy."

If Trump is impeached it will be at the behest of the GOP, no one else can do it.
If the Republicans do it. you can bet that they will take credit for having done so, and the following election will be very hard on Democratic candidates. Why are so many Democrats cheering impeachment? The very thing that can lock them out of power for decades.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 26, 2017, 11:12:07 PM »

I can't argue my point succinctly without adding yet another layer of quotes, so I'll just answer your queries in the order given.

I've no problem believing that overthrowing democracy is of more import than an Oval Office blow job.
However, I've never argued that they were an equivalency, so I question why you brought it up at all?

To quoque arguments may indeed be lazy, however I imagine you were thinking of tu quoque, and were too apathetic to consider a spellcheck.
Again I don't compare the alleged crimes, so tu quoque simply does not apply.

If you're saying that Trump is an ass I'm in total agreement. I'm not positive that he is worse than many of the Republican Presidents before him, but time, and history will be the judge of that. At the moment I tend to think that Bush the Lessor holds the wreath, but given enough time Trump might ascend to at least the level of say a Nixon or a Bush the Elder. These were intelligent men who, I believe, were fully aware of the crimes against humanity they were certainly guilty of.

Since Hillary was never able to grab the brass ring, we'll never know how good or bad her presidency would have been. I for one, am very relieved that this is so.


Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: July 25, 2017, 05:00:31 PM »
Sorry I touched on such a sensitive subject.

Abalone is my 2nd favorite sea food, uni is also on that list, but I have to confess to a love for the furry little buggers that apparently decimate the other two.
Your efforts on behalf of the shellfish appear to have been heroic over an extended period. FWIW I'll advise all in earshot that increasing the sea otter's territory might not be such a wonderful goal, should the subject ever arise.

Unfortunately, as the kelp forests keep disappearing, and ocean acidification intensifies, it may be totally out of our hands.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 24, 2017, 11:24:45 PM »
The Investigation Into Trump Just Got Serious, Here's Why

! No longer available

Does investigating the investigators remind anyone of Bill Clinton's final strategy during the Whitewater investigation that had evolved into the Monica Lewinsky Impeachment Hearings. At one point the publisher of Hustler Magazine, Larry Flynt, offered a cool $Million to anyone who had "illicit" sexual interactions with basically any Republican Senator or Congressman.

The impeachment was over a very short time after Larry's made his offer.

Where will they find enough uncorrupted politicians to push this, when they realize that Trump will be investigating their business dealings as thoroughly as they are investigating his?

When the investigation morphs from "The Russians Stole Our Election", into "Crooked Russians Made Deals With Crooked Trump", isn't this the same thing that the Republicans did during Whitewater? Wasn't Whitewater considered a witch hunt?

I despise any number of Trump's decisions, particularly in regard to the environment. I wouldn't appreciate his company at dinner, or over a beer. I still prefer him to Hillary because I'm convinced she would have lead us into a hot war with Russia by now.


Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Drilling and Shipping
« on: July 24, 2017, 09:08:25 PM »
Jeez, there's nothing like a good arms race to sop up all that excess cash!

I just hope and pray that Canada has enough deck space on her aged icebreakers for some truly impressive armament.

Can F-35's be modified for skis?

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 24, 2017, 08:50:20 PM »
I'm taken aback by the Oxford definition. I've always assumed that fast ice had some element of longevity inherent. Not necessarily the millennial + age of the ice shelves, but certainly not the ephemeral ice that melts away annually.

Apparently a puddle that freezes solidly during a Sunday storm is fast ice, until melted away by a Monday zephyr.

I'm liable to have difficulty adjusting to this definition.

Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: July 23, 2017, 02:03:03 PM »
The BART in and around San Francisco has quite a part underground, surviving the earthquakes in the past decades.

Employing several tunnel boring machines at the same time could solve the problem of slow progress per machine, given the large distance that needs to be covered. So the initial investment would be huge - like it is for the Gigafactory. That does not mean it cannot be done or that it cannot be worth the investment - although I really don't know if a LA - San Francisco hyperloop can ever make a profit.
They've also run some subways under LA recently, haven't seen how they'll react to a real quake yet.

I can imagine LA to San Francisco being attempted, it's the West to East routes I have trouble envisioning.

I lived in So. Cal. & Las Vegas for decades & have a brother on Big Bear Mountain. I've driven the area many hundreds of times, before and after I-15 was finally pushed through Cajon Pass. It is a very difficult region cut by deep valleys and towering peaks.

California crashed into the mainland millions of years ago and crushed things together like a squashed aluminum can, then it began to bounce back, stretching and deforming everything. We've a mountain range just outside Las Vegas that was turned upside down, and Sunrise mountain to the east was toppled on it's side, strange seeing strata pointing straight up.
Things are more chaotic heading west to the foothills near Riverside. Strata pointing in all directions, hot springs bubbling from the strangest places, and reefs where magma has spilled out of miles long crevasses.

LA to San Francisco might be possible. LA, headed east beyond Riverside will never be attempted, underground.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2017, 01:28:18 PM »
This is my 7th year of ice watching, and one thing I've learned is that whenever I've thought that I knew what the Arctic was up to, it did something else.
It's been a wonderful lesson in humility.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: July 23, 2017, 01:05:45 PM »
The average height of the ice sheet is something like 2000m. How often does it actually rain at that altitude during the Greenland summer?

My gut feeling tells me that the Greenland ice sheet is predominately driven by precipitation and not so much by actual temperature.
How do you explain 2012?

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 23, 2017, 01:02:31 PM »
The 105 value includes feedback contributions

I have been trying to get my head around the gwp20 and gwp100 numbers for methane. The gwp20 number is a much more accurate representation of the current forcing by atmospheric GHGs (including methane). Using the gwp20 I get a CO2e ppm in the 700 region, increasing at more than 5ppm per year! That argues for some very fast increases in global temperatures over the next two decades.

We will need extensive CH4 capture, as well as CO2 capture, technologies.

I've argued that since we are adding to the store of atmospheric methane, the only number that should be applied is the highest value, If we somehow stopped emitting methane, then in 20 years or 100 years those values would be appropriate. At present we replace all of the methane that is being destroyed, and more, so what we're measuring today is what is effecting our climate today, not a figure that assumes that a portion of it will be gone in 20 or 100 years.
If the CH4 concentrations should drop, I'll re-think my position.


Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:48:58 PM »
He makes Trump look slender and fit. A good man to be seen with.

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:46:51 PM »
That was one sick looking abalone!
Probably of no interest commercially, but what will the effect be on the sea otter population? It seems as though they just start rebounding from the fur trade, and somebody eats their kelp forests. I've always considered them as special.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:24:38 PM »
I do so hope you're right etienne, but Keeling doesn't fudge their figures.


Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:18:34 PM »
Wide sweeping heavily banked turns are certainly doable, but how does one adjust to up and down movements at speed?

Wide sweeping up and down movements.

Or, slow down to a couple hundred miles per hour through the mountains.  The real mountainous part of the Sierras, on a route from SF to NYC is about 50 miles. 

Or one drops south to LA and then east.

That's the route I was referring to. When that tunnel is completed you'll be dead, I'll be dead, and Musk's life will be a footnote in history books.

Remember when the Europeans taught the poor benighted Japanese how to build proper brick edifices, by the time the second earthquake struck they either abandoned them, or carried on at a terrible cost to avoid losing face. There's a reason Californians haven't been world leaders in subway construction, and it's not because holes are hard to dig.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 23, 2017, 11:32:53 AM »

We must cut carbon emissions by something like 4% a year to stay within the 2°C surface temperature limit. (Forget 1.5°C.)

It's not just reaching "zero carbon emissions". It's reaching ZCE within the remaining carbon budget for 2°C (i.e. quickly). That cannot be done without cutting current production and consumption, especially car and plane travel.

First we need to reduce CO2-e for one year, then we need to build on that.

Every year we put more GHG into the atmosphere than we did the previous year, yet we add some solar and wind and call this progress?
Each year our fossil use increases more than our renewable energy increases, and we bask in our success?

This is like the old saw that we're losing money on each sale, but we'll make it up in volume.

It's all OK because, because, because it just has to be. My children and their children and all the hundreds or thousands that inherit my DNA will live happy, healthy, zerocarbon lives, grateful of my legacy.
Either that or they'll live short brutish lives and die of starvation while cursing my generation for the greedy excesses we enjoyed while debating whether the invisible hand of the market, or stronger governmental control, would be the best way forward.

If we can't spew out less CO2 in 2017 than we did in 2016, we are not making progress, we're just digging ourselves in deeper. Adding 50% more renewable energy doesn't matter if we also add 5% more fossil fuel during that time period.

When Mr. Keeling's infamous curve flattens, then sags, we can claim we've made a start. We won't be able to claim that we've won or will win, only that we really were serious about fulfilling our most minimal obligation to future generations.

Mildly Miffed

Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:59:50 AM »
Wow! That is some machine.

Still it's only going through sedimentary material, "clay, claystone, sandstone & limestone. Neither the coastal mountains nor the mighty rocky's are based on such malleable materials. The article did mention something I'd skipped over, methane deposits. They've been pumping oil out of Southern California for a long time, but one little methane bubble could turn a boreing machine into rubble.

There are basically two types of tunnel boring machines: for soft soils and for rocks. A quick source is - see sections 2.2 and 2.1, respectively.
The Gotthard base rail tunnels in the Swiss Alps have been made through very hard rock - with sometimes crushed salt deposits functioning as high pressure aquifers. Quite difficult work - but they managed. Under less complicated conditions, rock tunneling machines have been used in most continents.
Passing the San Andreas fault is certainly an issue, but otherwise there are no serious obstacles for boring Los Angeles - San Francisco. For efficiency, usually one machine is used for 10 - 25 km only (cf. the Channel Tunnel - boring from both ends). The hyperloop would likely consist of two tunnels (one in each direction) and probably a service tunnel in between - so that would be quite an investment in TBM equipment.

Thanks for your, and others wake up call(s).

After decades in Nevada I should have at least remembered the boring machine that was carving away at our infamous "Nuclear Suppository", as one of our brighter Senators had dubbed the Yucca Mountain Site.

Hardrock tunneling equipment certainly does exist, (my bad), but I hope you will agree that it's outrageously expensive, and that progress is measured in kilometers/year.

The viability of going from Los Angeles at sea level, to Las Vegas, at 2,000 ft requires tunneling under Cajon Summit at 4,000 ft., except that Cajon pass follows the path of St. Andreas's famous fault. North of there is Mount Baldy (above the tree line), and to the south Mount Arrowhead and Big Bear Mountain with their ski resorts and high altitude training camps.

Musk would either travel for 100 miles deep underground, or stay close to the surface and have such a roller coaster ride that pealing passengers off the ceiling would be a problem at speed. The trains creeping up and down Cajon do so at less than 30 MPH, and maintain a grade of less than 3% only by zig-zagging up the face of the cliffs. Zigging and zagging are not things that the Hyperloop is designed for, but it is the traditional way to scale mountains.

Wide sweeping heavily banked turns are certainly doable, but how does one adjust to up and down movements at speed? Pilots in G-Suits with barf bags, strapped tightly to their seats, have learned to adjust, but passengers might object to the 0 G sections of the ride.


Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: July 21, 2017, 04:14:26 PM »
Wow! That is some machine.

Still it's only going through sedimentary material, "clay, claystone, sandstone & limestone. Neither the coastal mountains nor the mighty rocky's are based on such malleable materials. The article did mention something I'd skipped over, methane deposits. They've been pumping oil out of Southern California for a long time, but one little methane bubble could turn a boreing machine into rubble.

The Mole People were a sci fi meme in the early 50's, their boreing machines would claw through anything, including castle walls - Eldon is a wonder, but mole people lost their luster when I was still young.


Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: July 21, 2017, 11:15:59 AM »
AFAIK boring machines are designed to remove sedimentary sand & possibly clay, I'm unaware of anywhere in North America where you could go 900 miles in a straight line without running into large intrusions of igneous rock, or some other structure that would preclude using a boring machine.

Think of the Death Valley region. Underground rivers, underground lakes, underground magma pockets, the lowest elevation in the Americas and the highest mountain in the lower 48 states. No boring machine will ever work it's way from East to West through this region.

I mention Death Valley only because I have some knowledge of the geology there. Others who live away from sediment filled valleys, or are aware of the geology under their feet could tell similar stories of why a boring machine wouldn't be able to penetrate their particular region. These machines are mechanized sand hogs, you wont find them in hard rock mining sites, for very well understood reasons.

Pull straight east from Los Angeles and note the number of coastal mountain ranges you encounter. Look for hot springs, will a boring machine cut through the magma that's heating the water? Look for sites of old silver mines, in the day these were referred to as hard rock mines, they use dynamite to progress in those holes. Mountain ranges cut by deep valleys, and everything west of the San Andreas fault is headed north. Rail lines, roads and highways need adjustments to follow the movement. How do you adjust a straight tunnel when one end changes in elevation or direction with regard to the other?

Within portions of the Los Angeles basin a boring machine will be useful, just don't try to push as far as Riverside.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 20, 2017, 08:33:38 AM »
We all see ourselves as realists.

When new renewables exceed new fossil fuel installations, I'll consider that the battle lines have been drawn. When the Keeling curve curves downward, I'll concede that the battle might be won.

Until then color me sad

Think of all the drunks being driven home by their cars, the breathalyzer firms being shuttered, and of course the MADD ads we won't be subjected to.

How many municipalities will fail without income from speeding tickets. How many hard working traffic cops will be demoted to foot patrol, kindergarten cops, or mall cops. Municipal Court Justices, bailiffs and jailers, all competing for jobs at the newly automated McDonalds, or being retrained as bicycle mechanics.

The inhumanity of it all.

Perhaps this is what they had in mind when they put braille symbols on my drive through ATM  ;)

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 19, 2017, 06:56:15 PM »
From the linked article

Methane Seeps Out as Arctic Permafrost Starts to Resemble Swiss Cheese
Measurements over Canada's Mackenzie River Basin suggest that thawing permafrost is starting to free greenhouse gases long trapped in oil and gas deposits.

Thanks for the link.

I had no idea that such large releases of geologic methane were to be found so far north on this continent. S&S had found huge flares in the ESAS and issued warnings for that region, but as far as I know they hadn't determined if they were observing biologic or geologic methane, or a combination of both.

This doesn't bode well for the future.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 09:40:10 AM »
Not his link; just his post.  Why do you ask?

I think it contains important data that belies much of the Green BAU & everything will be more or less OK stuff. Data that had certainly slipped past my radar.

BTW I corrected my above post to show the link, as I'd intended.

Terry: You have a "singular" wit!


Thanks - I think?


Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: July 19, 2017, 01:29:42 AM »
Yes, really.

“Because it’s 2017, we might have Tropical Storm Don and Tropical Storm Hilary at the same time.”

Hurricane Vlad will put them both to shame.  8)


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 01:25:33 AM »
Have you read Bruce's link from upthread?

It's a nice piece of work that uses BP's published figures against them.

Fixed size with link

Policy and solutions / Re: Concrete - CO2 Villain or Solution?
« on: July 19, 2017, 01:20:13 AM »
Here are some interesting results from research on concrete carbonation, showing that more than 50% of CO2 emitted during production of cement is later absorbed during the lifecycle of concrete.

The CO2 balance of concrete in a Life Cycle perspective
by K.O. Kjellsen (Norcem), M. Guimaraes (Aalborg Portland) and Å. Nilsson (Cementa), published by Danish Technological Institute, Denmark

The amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorbed in Nordic concrete structures over a 100 year period has been calculated. The CO2 uptake, or carbonation, occurs gradually and was calculated for an initial service life period of 70 years followed by a 30 year post-demolition period. The processing of demolished concrete to recycled concrete aggregates increase the CO2 uptake, this was taken into account in the calculation of the total CO2 uptake.

Over 100 years, one year of Nordic concrete construction is calculated to absorb 0.34, 0.22, 0.24 and 0.021 million metric tons of CO2 in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland, respectively. These are quite notable numbers, and imply that about 0.5% of the total national CO2 emissions will be re-absorbed in concrete in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. The corresponding number for Iceland is about 1%. The calculations show that up to 30% of the total CO2 emission from cement production, or up to 57% of the CO2 emission from the so-called calcination process in cement manufacturing, is re-absorbed when the cement is utilized in concrete construction in the Nordic countries.,6

So - - - We will save, and have been saving between .005 and .01 of the CO2 emitted in some of the smaller cold countries because of concrete reabsorption. Why doesn't this give me a warm feeling of relief?


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 19, 2017, 01:04:08 AM »

He continued: “Never in my life as a political scientist have I seen two countries, major countries, with a constellation of national interests that are as dissonant, while the two leaders seem to be doing everything possible to make nice and be close to each other.”

Thank god and all the little godetts.

Can you imagine where we'd be if Hillary were our Supreme Military Commandess?


Truth has been in short supply for some time, now we're running out of truthiness.

I don't think it's laziness or sloppiness that drives the baldfaced liars, I think it's a demented form of hubris, and that the real message is that "You are so stupid and weak that I can say things that you know are lies, and you won't dare to say anything back."
I think it's a bullying tactic designed to demoralize everyone within ear shot who doesn't respond.

In the Kings Garments meme was the king being tricked by the crooked tailor who sold him his invisible clothing, or were both of them laughing up their invisible sleeves at the abject terror of the prols, who were afraid to mention that their emperor was last seen cavorting naked in the streets.

We don't torture people. Ha
The lives of 500,000 innocent babies were worth it. Ha - Ha
We came, we saw, he died. Ha - Ha - Ha
The Russians ate my coronation. Bwa - Bwa - Bwa
Bernie's wife is a Thief! Ha - Ha

Ha - Ha Hillary & Ta-Ta

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 18, 2017, 11:15:00 PM »

It is best for the Democrats if they don't find a smoking gun too fast, as slowly beating-up the GOP over the next year, or so, with endless revelations is one of the best ways to maximize the potential gains in the 2018 mid-term elections., and the 2020 presidential contest.
My bolding.

Trump as a one term President and Pence as a one term VP is about as good as we can hope for at this point in time.
If someone from the Bernie camp can win the Democratic Party's nod, they should have an easy win. If Podesta, Pelosi, and Hillary screw with the primaries, they could field another candidate that even Trump can beat.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 18, 2017, 10:56:55 PM »
Seventeen seconds into the above it's stated that " the Russian Government to peddle information..."
If this is accurate then the Russian government and the Trump campaign were negotiating as prospective buyers and sellers of this information. Since no bargain was struck, there is no way to determine whether the price was at market value, and no campaign finance laws were violated.

Further on at 25 seconds the reporter says that Trump Jr. wss told that "The Russian government wanted to share information..."
Peddling and sharing are not the same thing, I wonder which term is accurate.

Further into the video Greenwald compares this to the so called "Trump Dossier", originally paid for by a Republican, then paid for by the Democrats, and finally aired during the campaign by McCain. While this indicates that none of the parties involved were above using foreign operatives to dig up dirt on their opponent, it may also raise distinctions between truth and falsehood.

AFAIK no one has claimed that what has been presented as Podesta's E-Mails are anything other than Podesta's E-Mails, while Steele's claims that Trump had prostitutes pee on a bed in Moscow because Clinton slept there. Steele hasn't found many believers, even among the FBI.
Is it possible that the veracity of the information gives it a pass, just as it would if the charge was libel or slander? Wouldn't free speech give anyone in America the right to tell the truth about anyone else, no matter where that information was obtained?

We had a very newsworthy Mayor in Toronto who had been arrested in Florida on drug and alcohol charges. Some American apparently furnished His Honor's Loyal Opposition with a news paper clipping of the arrest. The Loyal Opposition brought this up during the campaign, but the idiot still won.
'Twas a dirty mud slinging campaign that my side lost, but I'm grateful to the reporter who noted the alleged perp.'s occupation, and I thought that democracy was served by having the scandal aired in the middle of the campaign.

Was it a case of foreign manipulation of a Canadian election, yes it was.
Would democracy have been better served if the voters of Toronto had been kept in the dark, no.
If Hillary's team had cheated to keep Sanders in check should the electorate be informed, certainly.
Would democracy have been better served if the American voters had been kept in the dark, no.

The 1st Amendment shields anyone who tells the truth. I've never heard of having your 1st amendment rights abrogated because the truth you expose came via a rival entity.

Greenwald also makes note of the "mission creep" that MSM is engaged in, and hopes that Mueller won't succumb to temptation. He was Bush the Lessor's head of the FBI for Christ's sake.

One final note is that Greenwald hinted that Clinton's interactions with Ukrainian politicians might be looked into. That's a Pandora's box that the public doesn't need to see. Hillary's out & the election is over. Had it been brought up during the campaign I would have thought differently, but there's nothing to gain by dragging her through that stinking pile of slime.


Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: July 18, 2017, 06:02:29 PM »
Blame Trump, he's guilty as hell, but save some of the rage for the Republicans. My understanding from the above is that the Republican Congress is proposing cuts over and above what Trump has asked for.

Trump is terrible, Republicans are even worse.


Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 18, 2017, 05:52:49 PM »

I'm in full agreement.

Personally I believe that rather than erring on the side of caution lest the public become fearful, we should be erring on the side of calamity in order to scare the populace into action. As you mention, specific regions, especially regions that resonate in peoples minds and that are facing problems near term should be heavily publicized.

Will New Orleans be irrecoverably inundated in the next climate change driven Hurricane. Is repairing HWY 1 near Big Sur worth while if it will be swept away in a few years or a decade?. Should the Thames River Gates be upgraded as London is again threatened by ever rising sea levels. Does Paris need protection from rising oceans? Will Miami become unlivable in 20 years? Should Toronto prepare for stronger, more violent tornadoes? Does Los Angeles need a new power source faced with Lake Mead's constant shrinkage? Will Las Vegas dry up & be blown away? Can we feed ourselves during the coming dust bowl?

Any of these discussions might scare the voters into demanding some kind of action from their politicians. People who attend Mardi Gras, vacation on the Pacific coast, or whose children spend Easter Holiday in Miami should be afraid. Why not help them.


Not statistical at all, but 3 auto workers that I met in the elevator were all complaining of the overtime they have been working in the past few months. One works for Toyota, the other two for different outfits that build components for the interiors of many brands of auto.

Not at all what I would have expected.

Our huge frame building factory that built frames for everyone from Jeep to Mercedes closed up and has been bulldozed since 2008. A shame since they built lighter, stronger frames than were otherwise available because of some extremely expensive forming equipment they possessed.

BTW - I'm in Cambridge Ontario and the factories involved extend outward as far as Ingersoll

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 18, 2017, 03:29:08 PM »

The dissolved oxygen plot looks even more extreme. Certainly looks like some big upwelling events happened in the last week or two. Far too deep for bottom contour to affect currents. Could it be volcanism?

Would Ekman Pumping be more likely?
A low pressure system over broken ice causing upwelling &, possibly leading to polynya formation?


Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 18, 2017, 03:13:36 PM »
Terry, you keep using this term. I know you are punning "Amen," but this word has a kind of interesting etymology. It is written with katakana, basically like italics in English, it is use for words that are not originally Japanese.

This fact got me interested, so I dug a bit and found that 'ramen' is what the Japanese did to the Chinese word that we (those who frequent Chinese restaurants, at least) know as Lo Mein...basically a noodle dish.

Just thought you might find it interest. Sorry for the OT.

Thanks so much for the unsolicited lesson in the secular etymology of a holy word held sacred by the PP's of FSM!  >:(

As a Practicing Pastafarian in the church of the FSM I much prefer Ramen to "the word that shall go unspoken".

May His Noodley Appendage Bring You Much Beer and Many Busty Bar Maids
May a Thousand Demented Harpists with Hang Nails Claw Relentlessly at the Scrotum of your Enemies

Ramen, Matey  8)

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 18, 2017, 05:38:22 AM »
Fear can be a wonderful motivator. Sputnik gave us JFK, a short lived emphasis on STEM education, a winning effort to get to the moon, and possibly the earliest of the building blocks that would eventually be assembled into the internet.
Not a bad fear response to a tech win from our dreaded foe.

It's not fear that's holding us back, it's the energy companies & the politician's they've bought.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: July 18, 2017, 03:09:31 AM »
With no real understanding of the situation, my thought is that any region with a binary climate, ie. one with monsoonal weather and an annual dry season might experience problems with any of the renewable electric generating sources. Hydro fluctuates between too much water and not enough, solar has long periods when it's shaded by thunder heads, followed by months of clear skies, and monthly wind patterns presumably would jump all over the place.
A very different situation than most of the rest of the world where temperature fluctuations make up the primary annual change.
Hydro might be the least effected, but the very advanced Indus Valley Civilization is generally considered to have fallen victim to the flooding, drying up, and constant relocation of their namesake river, rather than raids from outside.


Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: July 17, 2017, 08:16:21 PM »
"Abrupt emergence of a large pockmark field in the German Bight, southeastern North Sea"

Due to the shallow water depths and energetic conditions at the presumed time of eruption, a large fraction of the released gas must have been emitted to the atmosphere. Conservative estimates amount to 5 kt of methane, equivalent to 67% of the annual release from the entire North Sea.
Thanks for the link.
If we ever again have ice thick enough to carry my weight I intend to find out if my local gas eruption is still actively leaking.

The above 28 second video is indicative of the volume and force of the June 2015 eruption.
I arrived ~2 weeks later and made what observations I could, with the intention of returning in winter to see if methane bubbles were being trapped in the ice. Unfortunately the last two winters have been too warm to conduct my little experiment.

The area near the watercourse that exploded has a minimum of 7 meters of hard packed clay with no visible sand. There are holes smaller than a golf ball, but large enough to insert a thumb into that must extend through the clay matrix & down to wherever the gas had/has accumulated.

There are no gas lines nor municipal dump sites anywhere near the golf course, although N. America's first commercial oil patch is some tens of miles south & a large salt mine is located some tens of miles north.

If we ever again get some solid ice I still plan to attack it with ice pick and lighter to find out if a seep is still active.

Just noticed what thread I'm on.
My bad.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 17, 2017, 07:13:55 AM »
Oh lighten up! Muslims come in all different races and colours.

The topic is IJIS!
I thought it was ISIS?? Is IJIS a Japanese offshoot?  :o
Ramen !!

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 17, 2017, 07:05:46 AM »

But please, everybody, please remember there really is a difference in the way the two parties approach this stuff and the difference really matters.

Ramen !!

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 17, 2017, 06:58:35 AM »
Any idea how many democrats and how many republicans they polled?

6 months in, a record low for Trump, with troubles from Russia to health care (POLL)
"Partisan divisions are 35-23-35 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."

That seems a strange division, particularly so soon after an election in which democrats won so few seats at so many levels of government.

Did the polls that this poll is being compared to also have ~5 democrats for every 3 republicans, or were those polls actually polling different demographics, making them incomparable?

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 17, 2017, 06:17:07 AM »
Any idea how many democrats and how many republicans they polled?

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 16, 2017, 11:59:18 PM »

Good missive, but to be fair to Dr. Mann I believe it was I, not he, that suggested that he may be acting as a referee. We can't accuse him of hubris for something I wrote.


The 2012 tests were a reaction to Obama's proposed laws to clean up the air. The Edmonds article further claims that running ambient air through a Ford pick-up's engine will remove hydrocarbons, and clean the air.
Simply not credible. I'd write more but very time I try to copy a paragraph my size function goes crazy. >:(

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 15, 2017, 11:46:38 PM »
Mocking Mann and his contributions to our understanding of climate change is just wrong. I understand his motivation for attacking the NYMag's,(got it right this time), article and choose to disagree with him on this issue.
Dr. Mann believes that we must stay above the fray and always ensure that every T is crossed and every period is in place. I believe that lighting a fire in the cooling embers of the climate change battle is of primary importance. If I'd experienced what Dr. Mann has experienced since his famous hockey stick graphic rose from obscurity, I'd probably agree with him, but my life experiences were and are very different.
No one has attacked my life, my livelihood, my work, my legacy, claiming I didn't cross all of my T's, or dot all of my I's. Dr. Mann has faced all of this and more.

I think it's important at this time to be opening a new Overton Window. When I first came across the term I thought it a disgusting way to win an argument. I felt it was a disingenuous, deceitful ploy that others would use, not I, nor mine.
Then we came to the point where we'd basically won the AGW battle, but had exhausted ourselves in the effort. We've won, I'm tired, let's rest up for the next battle.
Then Wallace-Wells pops up saying we're all going to die!

The battle's on again, except this time the battle isn't over the reality of AGW, the battle is now over whether AGW will be killing our children or our grandchildren. This is a brand new window to discuss global warming, climate change, or whatever we chose to call the fact that we're cooking ourselves.
If all of the T's had been crossed, and had all the I's been dotted, I'm not sure we'd have as much coverage. There is a fight going on, and no one can turn away from watching a fight. We're not fighting about whether AGW is real, this time we're fighting about the casualty rate, and how soon the body bags will swamp the airports.
I think Dr. Mann's correct in trying to keep the opponents fighting fair. Like the referee at a boxing match. I think I'm correct in trying to bring the rubes into the arena. Selling the conflict, beating the drum, getting everyone doing research so that they to can join the fray.

If it wasn't so damn important it would be fun.

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: July 15, 2017, 10:39:49 PM »
Trump aims to use UN climate fund for coal plants

The Trump administration is angling to use a United Nations climate change adaptation fund to pay for the construction of coal plants instead, Bloomberg News reports.

An official told Bloomberg that the White House is pushing to use the Green Climate Fund, which the U.S. has contributed $1 billion to, for more "clean coal" power plants around the world.

The Green Climate Fund is a U.N. effort designed to send contributions from rich countries to developing nations who are bracing for the worst impact of climate change.

Some of the programs the GCF has funded include hydropower projects in the Solomon Islands and Tajikistan and a renewable energy push in Egypt. A Trump official told Bloomberg the U.S. would push to spend future money on “clean coal” and other power plants that aim to produce fewer carbon emissions than existing power facilities.

One of President Trump’s main complaints about the Paris climate agreement was the $3 billion pledge the Trump administration made to the GCF. Former President Barack Obama was able to contribute $1 billion before he left office earlier this year, and Trump has said the U.S. will stop future payments to the fund.

But the U.S. still has a seat on the GCF’s board by virtue of its previous contributions. The GCF funds projects on a consensus basis, making it more difficult for the U.S. to push a coal project through without buy-in from other nations.
I'm guessing the bolded should read Obama administration?

Needing a consensus WRT spending GCF's funds probably means that no money will be spent until Trump gets a coal project through. They might have been better of without Obama's well meaning, but poisonous billion dollar gift.


U.S.:  Long before the combustion engine, the hybrid car is facing obsolescence
Hybrid cars are becoming the VCR/DVD-combo players of the automotive world.

Just 2% of US auto sales last year were of cars with both electric motors and internal combustion engines, according to a report published this month by New York-based consulting firm AlixPartners. That’s down from a peak of 3.1% in 2013.

So what’s behind the drop in demand? Technology. Hydraulic fracturing (aka fracking), a drilling method that led to a boom in US oil- and natural-gas production, has driven down the cost of gasoline. Prices at the pump are currently just $2.40 a gallon, according to the US Energy Information Administration, a government statistics agency, a decline of nearly 35% since 2013. Cheap gas has also rekindled Americans’ love of trucks and SUVs.

Meanwhile hybrids, marketed in part as a way for price-conscious consumers to curtail gasoline costs, no longer have as compelling a value proposition.

At the same time, environmentally conscious consumers have more and cheaper options than ever for owning a fully electric car, thanks to improved battery technology that makes it possible to drive EVs over longer distances. (The fracking boom also drove down natural gas prices, which makes electricity cheaper too.)
It's strange to me that plugin hybrid garners such a small share of the market. In trying to maintain a one car family a plugin hybrid would be my preference at this stage of the buildout of charging stations. While I'm sure I could make it across country on electricity, a gasoline option would certainly ease my mind when heading beyond familiar regions.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 15, 2017, 10:07:39 PM »
Here is an article I find more disturbing than the Wallace-Wells piece. It shows there hasn't been a leveling of oil or gas use there has been a continued increase. It also shows the downturn in coal may be far smaller than that reported because, as we have discussed here on the ASIF , Chine has been under reporting.

Since we sometimes ;) fault clean energy companies for being overly optimistic about the rise of renewables, I think it is appropriate to be a little skeptical of fossil fuel data from BP.  If they were to report that FF use was declining significantly, it could set off a global financial oil panic. 

We should remember that these charts were not compiled by BP, but by a researcher who did use BP's figures, but put them together in a way that BP had not intended. I'm arguing that the results we see are not what BP was promoting. It's still certainly possible of course that the BP data used was fudged for some other purpose, but going down that rabbit hole leads to an extremely complex maze.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: July 15, 2017, 09:48:12 PM »
As long as their loyalty is to their sponsors there is little we can do. Even getting rid of the bums during primaries may be impossible if the DNC suddenly pulls out super delegates to make the final selection.
Where is a liberal, or a progressive, or anyone concerned with climate change to turn?

Sorry about the OT, but sometimes the politics becomes such an important part of the story that it has to be discussed.

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