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Messages - pikaia

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Volume vs extent, by the numbers
« on: July 27, 2017, 10:56:48 PM »
Suppose that the thickness, length and width of the ice sheet all decline linearly. When the thickness has gone down to 50% of its original thickness, the area will have gone down to 25% of its original value, and the volume will have gone down to 12.5%. As a result it will look as if the volume is going to reach zero before the other measures, but it will not, because the curve is a different shape, and will level off while thickness continues to decline at the same steady rate.

If you want to extrapolate you should ideally use a quantity which is expected to decline at a constant rate. Area, volume and thickness do not meet that criterion, so extrapolation from them is dangerous.

The rest / Re: Happy 150th Birthday Canada
« on: July 01, 2017, 04:06:43 PM »
Happy birthday, Canada!

The rest / Re: UK Snap General Election Poll
« on: May 23, 2017, 12:16:45 PM »
What about an option "Nobody"?

The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: May 20, 2017, 12:53:18 AM »

"Nowhere are the consequences of hypermasculine machismo braggadocio isomorphic identification with the conceptual penis more problematic than concerning the issue of climate change. Climate change is driven by nothing more than it is by certain damaging themes in hypermasculinity that can be best understood via the dominant rapacious approach to climate ecology identifiable with the conceptual penis."


The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: April 28, 2017, 03:46:20 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 19, 2017, 12:19:54 PM »
That is just the 10% above the water!

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: April 16, 2017, 04:24:42 PM »
The corresponding week last year had a very large spike, and had the highest weekly average of the year. The following week was much lower, so I expect normal service will be resumed next week.

The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: April 14, 2017, 11:24:26 AM »
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth To Power Trailer (2017). Released July 28.

The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: March 22, 2017, 09:13:47 AM »

The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: February 20, 2017, 09:58:37 AM »
"Ambitious Mosaic expedition will study weather patterns and life in melt ponds from vessel drifting with the ice current"

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 16, 2017, 12:20:14 AM »
Psychiatrists question Trump's mental health in a letter to NY Times.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: February 14, 2017, 10:18:09 AM »

Recently there has been a particularly good display of Polar Stratospheric Clouds, photographed above.


"These clouds are newsworthy because normally the stratosphere has no clouds at all. Home to the ozone layer, the stratosphere is arid and almost always transparent. Yet, Stålnacke says, "we've been seeing stratospheric clouds very often this winter and last."

Policy and solutions / Re: Sun Cell - pseudoscience or energy breakthrough?
« on: February 05, 2017, 11:57:43 PM »

For one thing, nobody actually knows what dark matter is, so you cannot claim that it is the end product of the process.

Also, it is incompatible with Quantum mechanics. You cannot get electrons down to an even lower energy level.

The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: January 05, 2017, 07:05:41 PM »
"North America was hit by 160 natural disasters in 2016, more than any other year since records began in 1980"

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 01, 2017, 11:34:23 AM »
As well as disliking excessive precision, I also dislike the absence of confidence limits. I wonder what they are for IJIS data?

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: December 29, 2016, 05:52:47 PM »
"A major new academic study has warned of the risk to buildings in urban areas across Russia's permafrost zone caused by climate change. The Russian-US analysis says a worst-case scenario could lead to a 75-95% 'reduction in bearing capacity throughout the permafrost region by 2050'."


Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: December 11, 2016, 12:29:05 AM »
there was a small lake ( called a Mirror in G.B. )
The word is Mere.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: December 09, 2016, 12:06:44 AM »
I will be extremely, EXTREMELY surprised if it's completely frozen over this month.
Me too - the temperature forecast for the coming week is for temperatures well above average.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: November 18, 2016, 12:42:07 PM »
I think this would compact the ice a lot and reduce the extent:

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 25, 2016, 11:55:37 AM »
"In Central Asia, a crisis is brewing over water and electricity. The Soviet-era system in which the five countries of the region shared their resources has broken down, leaving some facing water shortages and others chronic power cuts. Instances of small-scale unrest have already occurred, but some warn this could be just the beginning."

No obvious connection to climate change, but...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 14, 2016, 10:56:37 AM »
While the extent seems to have hit minimum very early this year, the volume has reached minimum unusually late!

The rest / Re: Does the universe have "intent", or not?
« on: August 23, 2016, 05:41:28 PM »
"Whether or not quantum effects influence thought is a valid topic for scientific investigation, but simply stating "quantum effects cause consciousness" explains nothing unless scientists can come up with some suggestion about how quantum effects could possibly cause consciousness. The argument goes:
I don't understand consciousness.
I don't understand quantum physics.
Therefore, consciousness must be a function of quantum physics!
It's god of the gaps with "quantum" as the all-purpose gap filler."

The rest / Re: Does the universe have "intent", or not?
« on: August 23, 2016, 12:26:33 AM »
Humans are social animals, which is why it is important for us to look for purpose in the actions of others. Unfortunately we then tend to apply this to other things, regardless of whether it is appropriate to do so. Looking for purpose in the Universe is a good example.

The idea that the universe exists in order to produce life is laughable. The universe is almost all hard vacuum and completely incompatible with life. Most of the rest is in the form of stars, ditto. Most of the rest is in the form of planets, which are mostly too hot or too cold, or otherwise unsuitable for the formation of life. Even on Earth life is just a temporary chemical scum coating the surface, which struggles to survive attempts by Nature to kill it with meterorites and other natural disasters, and which will be destroyed in a few billion years anyway when the sun becomes a red giant.

As for how the universe came into existence, how do we know that it did? According to some modern cosmological theories the Universe has always existed, with the Big Bang being a rebound from an earlier contraction phase.. This makes sense, because otherwise there would have to be a special point in time before which there was no other, but that conflicts with the Cosmological principle, which says that every point in Spacetime is the same as any other.

Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: July 19, 2016, 03:58:40 PM »
CO2 has dropped below 400ppm, albeit briefly!

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« on: July 14, 2016, 08:34:58 PM »
In the UK, the new PM, Theresa May, has scrapped the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

"The brief will be folded into an expanded Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy under Greg Clark.
Ed Miliband, the former energy and climate secretary under Labour, called the move "plain stupid".
It comes at a time when campaigners are urging the government to ratify the Paris climate change deal."

The rest / Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« on: June 26, 2016, 09:46:04 AM »

Cameron, who seems to be wrong about everything. He thinks that the UK is not overcrowded,
The UK isn't overcrowded. London has an average density of 51 pepple per hectare, rising to 200 in parts.  The rest of the South East has a density of 4.5 people per hectare. There is room for several London's in the South East and to use the much used fact: There is more space taken by golf courses in Surrey than is built up.
So if we built several Londons in the South East it still wouldn't be overcrowded? It might be physically possible to squeeze a hundred million more into Surrey, but would any sane person  prefer to live in such a place? Would you enjoy living in an urban jungle, with nature concreted over?

Already most of our land is either covered with tiny houses packed shoulder to shoulder, or farmland which is incapable of feeding everyone so that it has to be supplemented by imports, or else only fit for sheep. Where is the unused land to feed and house even more people?

The rest / Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« on: June 25, 2016, 02:39:21 PM »
IMO this is more a reaction of voting against the establishment.
There is anecdotal evidence that some people voted for Brexit as a protest, not believing it could happen. And there is now a petition on the Government's website to have a rerun of the vote. Over 1 million signatures!

The rest / Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« on: June 25, 2016, 11:22:48 AM »
On one hand we have Nigel Lawson, a climate change denier who favours Brexit, but on the other hand we have Cameron, who seems to be wrong about everything. He thinks that the UK is not overcrowded, and he has also made me a second class citizen for the crime of being single, so how can I trust the judgement of a man like that?

The rest / Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« on: June 25, 2016, 10:08:21 AM »
The vote to leave was an economically illiterate decision that will leave the UK poorer.
I keep hearing that, but nobody in the Remain campaign actually explained why, and as an economic illiterate I want to know. I am not willing to take it on trust. I have tried to find out but still haven't got a straight answer, so perhaps you can explain. What can your business do within the EU that you couldn't have done if it didn't exist?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice Crashing Into Ice
« on: June 22, 2016, 11:16:09 PM »
Floes don't always move in the same direction.  Depending on the shape above and below water, a floe might be mainly affected by the current, or by the wind. These might be in opposing directions, so that the floes can also move in different directions.

Well I feel like an A$$ but this poll strikes me as foolish in the extreme.
In the first place, it's poorly formulated. It's an incredibly capricious metric that could fail to be met while extreme dynamics are in play. So what's the point?
Next, a poll that asks about what might happen in 5, 10, 20+ years? Why? To satisfy some need to commune in an elite collective awareness of an impending apocalypse? That would be a false comfort.
Worst of all, it plays into the narrative of Henny Penny or Chicken Little running about declaring that the sky is falling. This degrades from the reality of a catastrophe that can be described by staid science without the histrionics.
More colloquially, you're not helping.
Raining on the parade here but please, consider, are you helping? I don't think so.

The reason that I asked the question is just out of curiosity; I had no other motive. I am sure it will happen one day, and then it will be a newsworthy event, even though it is of no great significance in itself as anything more than a milestone.

I actually have no idea when it will happen. I would not be surprised if it is this year, but I would not be surprised if it takes ten years or more, so for that reason I have not voted. However, I was surprised how popular 2016 was, and if I had known I would have broken it down further.

As for being about what might happen in 5, 10, 20 years, there are plenty of other threads which do exactly the same thing, so I don't see anything different about this poll. And given that most of us accept AGW, and this is a minor website, anything that is said here is unlikely to have a global effect, and of course the poll is not intended to.

Any chance of a map showing a 100km radius around the pole to get a feel for what we're talking about?

It is about 0.9 degrees, which is about the size of the grey blob here:

So look for blue completely surrounding it.

While an ice-free Arctic would be a major landmark, another landmark would be open water at the North Pole. Since the thickest ice is not at the pole this is likely to occur significantly earlier, with ice hanging on along the CAA. When do you think this might be? The University of Bremen ice concentration map is already showing rather low concentration near the pole.

This poll will run for 30 days. You may change your vote.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: April 28, 2016, 10:13:25 AM »
For the last three years the red line has dipped below the green line around day 150, when the temperature gets close to melting point. This has stalled the melting in the high Arctic before it has begun. It will be interesting to see if it is repeated this year, in a month from now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: April 27, 2016, 03:42:03 PM »
It depends which Calorie you are talking about.Calorie with an upper case "C" is the bigger one.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: April 27, 2016, 02:08:36 PM »
To melt 1Kg of ice requires 80 Calories. To raise the temperature of 1Kg of water by 1 degree requires 1 Calorie.

 Record for the city-state is 37.0°C (98.6°F) at Tengah on April 17, 1983.

Still not as hot as the record for England (Latitude 52N) of 38.5 °C (101.3 °F)!

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: March 21, 2016, 09:01:20 AM »
An online poll to name Britain's latest polar research ship has produced a ridiculous name as the favourite: "Boaty McBoatface".  :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 16, 2016, 09:52:18 AM »
Phoenix aurora over Iceland.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: February 10, 2016, 02:13:02 PM »
Light pillars over Alaska.

Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: January 15, 2016, 11:25:35 AM »
It's a pity that ESRL has stopped publishing the daily readings on it's page. Remains the Keeling Curve to 'enjoy' the daily dose of excitement.
Daily readings are now published under the "Last Month" tab.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 27, 2015, 10:26:27 AM » is forecasting temperatures above freezing at the North Pole on December 30 at 1200.

Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: December 20, 2015, 02:45:23 PM »
Week beginning December 16: 402.35, which is a massive 3.31ppm above last year. The last week of December 2014 showed a small decrease over the previous week, so next week's figure could have an even bigger difference.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 12, 2015, 12:59:49 PM »

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