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Messages - Tor Bejnar

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Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 06:21:48 PM »
Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - looks bearish on El Niño for the rest of this year (different from forecast in March). (Or to be positive, it looks bullish on neutral ENSO conditions.)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 27, 2017, 05:05:35 PM »
The triangle of what I presume is the thickest ice in the Lincoln Sea - the pale triangle along the Greenland coast (split by a long nearly-parellel-to-the-coast polynya) is quite broken up.  As these pieces (presumably) head toward Nares Strait, I do not expect them to cause any delays in export of sea ice. (PolarView image from May 24 - Nares Strait's north end is in the lower left corner of screen print)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 27, 2017, 01:11:59 PM »
and a (partial) cross post showing the remnants of Big Chunk washing into Baffin Bay:
Here [is] ... a ... gif - the block smash in Nares strait.

I've published a bit of python code for retreiving sequences of worldview images over on the gif creation thread - it's already helpful but its just a snippet so far,1259.msg114906.html#msg114906

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 26, 2017, 09:21:09 PM »
Thanks, woodstea.  That explains the gap and the red dot at the bottom of the marker.

This calculator suggests one can see a 200 m tall mountain 50 km away.  at 70 km, the mountain would need to be at least 400 m tall. (250 m - 56.5 km)

Then there are false images (actual reflections) where one can see objects that are below the horizon.

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 26, 2017, 09:05:38 PM »
"The advantage of engineered autonomous robots would be they could be placed in ideal terrains to maximize cation production and transport." 

Yes, like ophiolite belts and (maphic volcanic) island paradises!  Coastal properties are best.  In my mind's eye, I see this future advertisement: "Beat the rush and sell your rocky beach front property to 'The Crushers' before it goes under the waves anyway."

There was a science fiction book I read in college where the robot's rocket misfired and the robot landed in rural USA, assembled itself, then asked a farmer for a 1.5v battery, whence it pulverized the nearby mountain with this tiny amount of power.  Frightened, the farmer told it to disassemble itself, so it did.  Then NASA showed up and wondered how the robot did it, it having been programmed to use lots of power from a developed source at its intended destination.  But the robot was in pieces and couldn't help.  [Makes me want to start bicycling to work.]

Then there's:
"If 20 maids with 20 mops, swept for half a year, do you suppose," the Walrus said, "that they could get it [the beach] cleared [of sand]?"  "I doubt it," said the Carpenter, who shed a bitter tear.

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 26, 2017, 07:23:18 PM »
"Or for a sci-fi option invent small autonomous robots that are solar powered rock crushers and turn them loose in appropriate mountain terrains."

This is the up-to-date version of a dream of mine since the earliest 80's, before I had even an inkling about GW.  (At the time, it was to support global soil, thus plant, health.) Of course, glaciers are the traditional solar powered rock crushers, no batteries required!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 26, 2017, 05:59:42 PM »
I agree the Lincoln Sea ice (ave 3m) is shattering as it approaches Nares Strait (as it does every year, although usually not until July) and when it hits the edges of or islands in the strait, but I don't think I see it melting into oblivion, merely rapidly going south where it will melt into oblivion.  The "Big Chunk" (as someone described it) of fast ice that grew in Kane Basin is, apparently, melting some in situ as it disintegrates in or near Smith Sound.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 26, 2017, 05:04:08 PM »
Looking only at the Arctic basin (instead of overall extent or thickness for the Arctic Circle and beyond) using DMI, I think it's fair to say that the icepack is not as robust this year as last year.

partial cross post below:  I find it curious that maps show 4+ meter ice where, when actually measured, average 3 meters thick.
Another cross-post:
measurements taken by scientists on the ice in that area show a mean thickness of 3m

Screen shot from this paper showing the four (western) Lincoln Sea ice bridge ice thickness measurements [and snow depths] on (apparently) April 12, 2017:
At 12 Twin Otter landing sites between 83N and 87.1N, we gathered 36.7 km of electromagnetic (EM) ice- and snow-thickness data and acquired some 13 000 snow-thickness measurements. EM soundings were calibrated with drill-hole measurements. Data were edited to remove any bias due to thinner snow and ice conditions in the immediate vicinity of our landing sites, which were mostly on refrozen leads. Our results represent conditions on thick, old first- and multiyear ice floes typical for the wider regions around the landing sites.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 26, 2017, 03:39:37 PM »
I suspect I've made the "lightening" error.  But the other day the lightning was lightening.  (Florida is 'Lightning King' in the USA, but more intense in the mid-section of the peninsula.)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: May 25, 2017, 08:34:08 PM »
The following information is from a geologic map of Greenland, with my leading comments:
It appears the youngest igneous rocks in Greenland are on the order of 50 million years old.  I wouldn't expect the removal of all Greenlandic ice to re-energize significant (or actually any) volcanic activity. From here: "Extinct: It takes a lot to be an “extinct” volcano. The rule of thumb I use is about 1 million years since the last eruption … "

Chart describing last 100 million years of igneous rocks in Greenland (see time line screen shots):
(references are to time line reference numbers)

[6] Paleocene tholeiitic lavas, central West Greenland.
[7] Paleocene picritic lavas, central West Greenland.
[48] Eocene tholeiitic plateau basalts in East Greenland.
[49] Paleocene–Eocene tholeiitic basalts with picritic intervals. East Greenland.
[53] Tertiary felsic intrusions in East Greenland.
[57] Tertiary mafic to intermediate intrusive complexes in East Greenland.
[58] Upper Cretaceous gabbroic intrusion. Pearya terrane, Ellesmere Island (Canada).

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 25, 2017, 07:37:51 PM »
... which give me a rough estimate of the camera direction as 240 deg clockwise from north ...
So, WSW of the marker's pointer is Stefansson Island.

From Wikipedia:
Stefansson Island is an uninhabited island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in the Kitikmeot Region of Nunavut, Canada. It has a total area of 4,463 km2 (1,723 sq mi), making it the 128th largest island in the world, and Canada's 27th largest island. The island is located in Viscount Melville Sound, with M'Clintock Channel to the east. It lies just off Victoria Island's Storkerson Peninsula, separated by the Goldsmith Channel. Stefansson Island's highest mount is 267 m (876 ft).

The first European sighting of the island was in 1917 by Storker T. Storkerson who was travelling with Canadian explorer Vilhjalmur Stefansson (1879-1962), for whom the island was named.
(See interesting life of the explorer.)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 25, 2017, 05:36:37 PM »
Cross post, for a bit of nostalgia (see Neven's message ending link to an 'old' ASIB post).
If Nares does not block up, what happens?

Hard for me to imagine the Nares blocking up with GFS now calling for the next 5 days of significant winds occurring there. The GFS has been trending that way and it's only gotten stronger.

I don't believe I've ever seen a traffic jam in Nares Strait once the arches broke. And I've looked for it, right after starting the ASIB (see here).

Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: May 25, 2017, 05:10:56 PM »
Here is a map showing the islands near Obuoy #14 in the Canadian Archipelago. (cross post from the Buoy thread)

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 25, 2017, 05:07:24 PM »
I think it is Republican politicians who are late to this dance.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 25, 2017, 04:33:54 PM »
I think we can see land in the distance.  Do we know which island(s)? (Map from Obuoy website, annotated) [edit: per the next post, I've uncovered the marker.]

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 25, 2017, 03:39:00 PM »
Big Chunk appears to be disintegrating (largely) in place!  This PolarView image from yesterday has, more or less, Big Chunk circled.  I think the most solid remaining Big Chunk floe is the piece at the right end of the circled area.  Meanwhile, 'thick' Lincoln Sea ice floes are moving past at about 40 km/day (some with arrows). DMI's AQUA (mostly) clear sky image is from May 21.  Arrowed flows are not the same floes in the two screen prints!  (Smith Sound is about 40 km wide.)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 23, 2017, 09:57:37 PM »
I just noticed the fast ice on the Greenland side of Hans Island broke between May 8 and 11, leaving the fast ice remaining on Franklin Island.  (The big floe hitting Hans Island on May 17 shattered, by the way.) (I'm making a correction on a previous Hans Is./fast ice post...)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 23, 2017, 05:12:16 PM »
Yesterday's DMI NOAA AVHRR image shows Smith Sound very nicely. I've annotated a screenshot.

Neven can take it with him - old folks homes have lawns, too.  (No rest for 'planet savers'  :'()

After 8 years of using my neighbor's lawn mowers (he now has a battery powered one), I bought a corded string trimmer (weed wacker), and mow my 'meadow' (it would be a lawn if it had grass - but the wild flowers are more fun) a few times each year.  (20 years ago I used a scythe to shorten grass and weeds over my septic system and around my home.  I miss that tool.) 

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 23, 2017, 02:52:11 AM »
From Wipneus's May 9 post, see that Big Chunk came from west of Hulmbolt Glacier's front.  Looking at the October 1, 2016 DMI Sentinel, there are bits of ice that got glued into the fast ice, but nothing looks very significant.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 22, 2017, 11:01:08 PM »
Texaco was successful in the early days, I've been told, partly because they had dependably clean restrooms.  Tomorrow it might be "free [what's better than wi-fi?] and clean restrooms while you charge".  To make this "Oil and Gas" related, we'll have to make the term "gas station" disassociated with ff, somehow.  Future advert: "Come to our 'What a gas' Station and see previews of the best holograms."

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 22, 2017, 09:51:06 PM »
Cross post (thanks, Tigertown):
Where did it go?
Charts show this that's now ice entering Nares to be old thick ice, but the way it crumbles makes for doubt. 5-21 vs. 5-22

We've now received very strong EV signals from Mercedes, Volvo, Ford, VW and who else?
Tesla  :P ::) :o ;D

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 22, 2017, 09:34:28 PM »
Diamonds, although very hard (10 of 10 on Mohs scale), are quite brittle: bouncing off the Greenland coast did "the Diamond" floe in. (Boy was it faceted!)  'Gotta name these floes fast or you'll miss your chance.

"Once we have 200 mile range compact and midsized EVs selling for under $25k I think it's all over for ICEVs."
I'm hoping (expecting) my 2002 Prius will make it to the day it can be replaced with such an EV.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 22, 2017, 04:31:04 PM »
Yesterday's DMI Sentinel imagery shows a large "diamond" floe entering Robeson Channel (the northern section of Nares Strait).  It's narrowest width is about 17 km.  I look forward to its interacting with Hans Island, as there is only about 15 km of passageway available to passing floes.  (Or will "Diamond" be 'faceted' before then due to its many flaws?) [The fast ice area is greater than that represented by the yellow line.  Both screen prints are from the same DMI image.] [Huge edit/woops, written on May 23: Fast ice on Hans Is. broke about May 9.  This image shows fast ice on Franklin Is. and passing floes (mostly) between Hans and Greenland.  See my May 23 post for some details.  This doesn't much affect the concerns raised in this original post, however.]

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 22, 2017, 04:01:42 PM »
Current Bloomberg Energy info (West Texas Intermediate is back over $50):

Parts of Texas and the Southeast can sure use [at least some of] the rain. May 16 Drought Monitor screen shot:

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 22, 2017, 03:00:11 AM »
I fully agree with you, oren, but it is fun watching ice appear to 'attempt' to close things down (with inadequate 'tools'), at both ends, even when they last only half a day.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:17:41 PM »
Looks like a hammer [stone] (small floe) and anvil (Greenland) approach to floe size reduction (of Big Chunk), or a wedge and Big Chunk in a tightening vice.

A few years ago there were many news articles about US states creating fees for EV and ICEV cars to make up for lost gasoline taxes; EVs use the roads too, it was argued.  (I've read in the past that large trucks (semi truck-trailers) do nearly all the nornal-vehicle-use-caused damage to roads, not passenger vehicles.)

Thinking about this issue and doing a (non-Google) internet search, I read in the LA Times (2017 May 21) that California is increasing their gasoline tax:
The legislation, for which final details were unveiled last week, would raise the base excise tax on gasoline by 12 cents per gallon, bringing it to 30 cents. Another variable excise tax would be set at 17 cents.

The excise tax on diesel fuel would jump 20 cents per gallon and the sale tax on diesel would go up four percentage points. Electric cars would pay a $100 annual fee.

The package also creates a new, annual vehicle fee ranging from $25 for cars valued at under $5,000 to $175 for cars worth $60,000 or more.

About $34 billion of the first $52 billion would go to repairing roads, bridges, highways and culverts, with most of the money split 50-50 between state and local projects.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 21, 2017, 03:09:24 AM »
According to windytv, the current winds are mild and from the north, helping floes go south. 

A paper discussed a couple or several years ago on this thread detailed that most of the Nares Strait has a current that flows south on the western side and a small current flows to the north on the eastern side. (I tried, but failed, to find the reference. Anybody have it?  It was alluded to a few days ago.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: May 21, 2017, 12:03:56 AM »
With your new bikes, you'll have to eat more to power them (and we've all been taught by the agricultural industrial complex the importance of eating lots of iron-rich red meat for energy)!  ::)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 20, 2017, 11:53:51 PM »
In Kane Basin (and Smith Sound) Big Chunk (BC) looks like it intends to shut off the export of the pesky Foot Bridge floes like the ones that just zoomed right past BC yesterday and today, but I don't think it will succeed.  It is curious to watch the little floes zip along and the big oaf lumbers erratically along.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 20, 2017, 05:49:04 PM »
cross post:
So much for the seed vault being built for eternity...  :-\

Arctic stronghold of world’s seeds flooded after permafrost melts

"It was designed as an impregnable deep-freeze to protect the world’s most precious seeds from any global disaster and ensure humanity’s food supply forever. But the Global Seed Vault, buried in a mountain deep inside the Arctic circle, has been breached after global warming produced extraordinary temperatures over the winter, sending meltwater gushing into the entrance tunnel.

The vault is on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen and contains almost a million packets of seeds, each a variety of an important food crop. When it was opened in 2008, the deep permafrost through which the vault was sunk was expected to provide “failsafe” protection against “the challenge of natural or man-made disasters”.

But soaring temperatures in the Arctic at the end of the world’s hottest ever recorded year led to melting and heavy rain, when light snow should have been falling. “It was not in our plans to think that the permafrost would not be there and that it would experience extreme weather like that,” said Hege Njaa Aschim, from the Norwegian government, which owns the vault."

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 20, 2017, 02:57:19 PM »
Some related "English word" terms associated with what you describe (location was a help)
braided stream
outwash plain
proglacial stream
valley train

My second guess (after coulee) is "valley train".

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 19, 2017, 07:38:06 PM »
I believe you mean "Lincoln Sea" instead of "Nares Strait".  Nares Strait had a bridge for a couple of days (so it doesn't count) early in the winter; it has been exporting thin ice all winter and spring.  Lincoln Sea had a bridge that broke about 10 days ago, and it is now exporting 3-meter ice (per a recent in-the-field study - see Greenland - Nares thread).  But yes indeed: 2 months earlier than 2016.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 19, 2017, 05:32:13 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 19, 2017, 05:09:48 PM »
The way the ice disintegrates now, I suppose before long, it will find its way out of the Arctic through any little nooks and crannies that open up. This will be a summer of, not just melting, but extraordinary export.

This may be true, but according to 'old' (2015) research presented in the Fram thread, Fram export is lowest during the summer.  This may, in part, be due to melting before it gets to The Fram, like we saw during the first half or so of last winter.  Of course, there are other summer exit doors (Nares, Canadian archipelago).

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 19, 2017, 04:42:29 PM »
"Big Chunk" moved about 4 km between May 17 and 18, while the "foot bridge" pieces moved about 85 km.  What will today bring? Winds, per windytv, are mildly contrary today (contrary for southward travel).  Currents favor export, winds favor stillness.

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: May 18, 2017, 06:21:39 PM »
Although still connected by a (twisting) neck, they are calling it an iceberg!  I think the falling-in rift edges is mostly a reflection of the instability of tall cliffs (especially tall cliffs with fractured rock [or ice] around.  The taller the shelf edge, the faster it will fail (more or less).

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 18, 2017, 05:59:05 PM »
... I don't know. I'm just suspicious of everybody. ...
Yeah, who is this "Neven" guy who shows up everywhere on this forum and the ASIB? ;D

I watch Rachel Maddow and read Fox News (on the internet), then scratch my head and go back to reading about Arctic ice.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 18, 2017, 04:27:43 PM »
"Big Chunk" (the largest piece of fast ice that broke off within Kane Basin on April 22 [other pieces broke off earlier]) is definitely heading into Smith Sound, finally (and slowly - 10 km/day).  Pieces of the "foot bridge" (or was it "arch of the boot"?) in Lincoln Sea (that broke on May 10) are catching up quickly - 100 km/day (purple arrows)! Worldview screen shot below from May 17.  Floe speed determined by comparing May 16 & 17 images.

Consequences / Re: Where have all the Insects gone?
« on: May 18, 2017, 02:45:24 PM »
Hummm.  "My" mosquito population seems to be doing quite well, as is the carpenter bee population (to my shed's dismay).  It's not hard to unintentionally find tics in the woods and intentionally find fleas on our cat (with multiple flea combings each day).  We grew parsley for butterflies this spring (in pots so the moles won't get the roots) and have a couple green chrysalises 'just stuck there doing nothing' as a result, although I'm sure the butterfly population is less than in the past.

Our green frogs seem to have lots of moths to eat (we get to watch them on windows), and there seem to be more of them (frogs) since I stopped using Round-Up on poison ivy 5 or 6 years ago (I now use a shovel). 

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewables Reach a Tipping Point...
« on: May 17, 2017, 07:35:25 PM »
And those two graphs do not speak to renewables reaching a tipping point, which is the topic of this thread.

I think the 2nd graph does point to a tipping point: when renewables (in the EU) produce more power than FF, people in the USA will begin to see the writing on the wall.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: May 17, 2017, 05:47:18 PM »
Rain in forecast in parts of Greenland for each on the next several days, according to ASIG-Forecasts-Precipitation and Clouds maps.  Here is the one for Friday.  (Okay, more snow than rain)

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 17, 2017, 05:11:30 PM »
Further to my "oil industry killed mj" above: here is part of an interview conducted in 1997-98 and published by Frontline that throws some cold water on what I wrote.

Speaking of hemp, I've heard what partly motivated the original laws against marijuana was William Randolph Hearst, who wanted to have a monopoly on paper manufacturing. Hemp was in competition for paper.


There have been some unusual explanations of why we had the Marijuana Tax Act. The first one I remember having heard in the 60s was the alcohol industry just got through prohibition, and they realized that if you could grow marijuana in your backyard,[it] would cost you simply nothing to get high, you wouldn't buy alcohol. So the alcohol industry was behind the Marijuana Tax Act.

Then I've heard, it was actually the DuPont Company, because the DuPont Company was coming out with nylon, and they were very fearful of competition from hemp, which was also very strong fiber. Therefore, the DuPont Company was behind the Marijuana Tax Act. And then there's the argument that William Randolph Hearst was really behind the Act because he had paper plantations and trees to make paper and you could also make paper out of hemp and therefore he wanted to get rid of hemp.

And I've looked into these; there's no evidence that they were correct. I think they come from people who can't believe that you could actually just be against marijuana just because it's marijuana.

And the Marijuana Tax Act, which I've looked into at great length, is fully explained by this agitation, which really was linked to the fear of Mexican immigrants and the pressures on the government, and then they're using the National Firearms Act model to form the Marijuana Tax Act. And I see no evidence that either William Randolph Hearst, the DuPont Company, or the liquor industry was behind it. But I would say about every five or six years a new explanation comes up.

Nonetheless, what I recall reading (memory slightly refreshed) was that DuPont quietly aided (financially) the passage of the MJ Tax Act, somehow, but did not in any way spearhead the effort.  I wonder if this was also true of Hearst and the alcohol folks.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 17, 2017, 03:05:58 PM »
This cross post from a year ago (referencing a 2015 paper) may be useful to us.  I've included figures from the paper showing seasonal changes in Fram export.  We are headed into the traditional slow export season, it shows. [edit: re-snagged the figures - now attached.]
From August of last year

Fram Strait spring ice export and
September Arctic sea ice
M. H. Halvorsen1
, L. H. Smedsrud1,2,3
, R. Zhang4
, and K. Kloster5

The Arctic Basin exports ∼ 10 % of the sea ice area southwards annually through Fram
Strait. A larger than normal export decreases the remaining mean thickness and ice
area. A new updated timeseries from 1979–2013 of Fram Strait sea ice area export
shows an overall increase until today, and that more than 1 million km2
5 has been exported
annually in recent years. The new timeseries has been constructed from high
resolution radar satellite imagery of sea ice drift across 79◦ N from 2004–2013, regressed
on the observed cross-strait surface pressure difference, and shows an increasing
trend of 7 % per decade.
The trend is caused by higher southward ice drift
10 speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing
surface pressure on Greenland.
Spring and summer area export increases more
(∼ 14 % per decade) than in autumn and winter, and these export anomalies have
a large influence on the following September mean ice extent.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 17, 2017, 02:52:46 PM »
measurements taken by scientists on the ice in that area show a mean thickness of 3m

I think the ice thickness graph from this publication is worth reproducing.  It shows snow depth and ice thickness along a path starting in the Lincoln Sea and going north, measured 'on the ground' in mid-April 2017.  I wonder if this is representative of snow depths and ice thicknesses across the from-just-north-of-Canada Arctic Ocean.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 17, 2017, 06:03:08 AM »
I'm reminded of articles Ive read (decades ago) about how oil companies helped fund the original criminalization of marijuana in the USA as a round-about way of getting rid of plant oil research for plastics, leaving all the R&D funds for petroleum.  It worked. [edit: see below]

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