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Messages - Tor Bejnar

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Volume vs extent, by the numbers
« on: Today at 12:28:04 AM »
Visually projecting dlen's mean thickness graph suggests (to me) that 2017 ice thickness may reasonably be (at minimum) about what 2012's was (per climate change, not requiring a matching weather experience), and given volume is about the same as 2012's was (at least for the day-of-year two weeks ago), area could end up being similar to 2012, too.  (Minimum extent has a great deal to do with weather during the last month - gathering the floes in or pushing them out.)

I'd love to see the mean thickness graph for the CAB-only, as some of us think its experience will be more predictive of the future than the Arctic-wide experience.

Yes, that tributary glacier would be the 'long term' culprit!  Without (probably) climate change induced major calving of the Petermann Glacier, however, the Belgrave Glacier wouldn't have been able to pull this "non climate change" stunt off.

Now, with the Petermann Glacier no longer plugging its exit, I wonder if (or, actually, how soon) we'll be able to discern its flow rate increasing.

And now on to Hubert Glacier...

I suspect tiny-ish pieces of the glacier, given a degree of freedom, flipped on their sides 'pushing' the new iceberg's end out into the fjord.

I don't see any widening of cracks between July 24 and 26 that didn't 'totally open up'. (two Sentinel Playground gifs)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Volume vs extent, by the numbers
« on: July 27, 2017, 01:38:58 AM »
Yes: great work, Ned and oren!I think oren's data can be used to create the maps I longed for in this post:
... a map outlining the several Arctic regions with a single thickness number (in meters) in each that represents the typical thickness loss for that region [edit: average for that region that year/decade], perhaps with a map for each year (or decade).  These maps might be overlain on minimum (or average minimum) extent map.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 01:13:07 AM »
I don't know why that GIF makes me think everything will turn out okay one moment and then 'handbaskets' and the like the next.   :-\

A bunch of purple arrows point to rock debris that collects on (and within) a glacier.  It is a mixture of ground rock (huge boulders down to clay sized particles) that gets dragged (given it is frozen to the ice) and pulverized along the sides (left, right and bottom) of glaciers or as loose rock on top of them.  Especially as glaciers merge (e.g., tributary glaciers meeting), this debris can be found 'anywhere' along a glacier's cross section.   Some debris (locally extensive - can cover the entire width of a small glacier) falls onto glaciers from rock-falls or avalanches.  Some of the less 'black' dark areas in this image may be scattered debris. (Up close it may include large boulders.)  Certainly, algae has its part, too (but I don't know much about this).

Mostly (but not entirely) not relevant here, when glaciers flow beyond (below) their accumulation zone (net surface melt), a glacier's surface can become covered with rock debris as any ice above the load melts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 26, 2017, 03:42:05 PM »
O-Buoy 14 is on the move again, after a 2-day virtual stall.  But looking at the camera tab, it's a dreary, damp, overcast and calm day. (A little smudge - water droplet? - on the photo [July 25 Sentinel Playground image with current location circled])

The little piece (about 6 km2) at the front of Petermann Glacier that I have been watching has broken off, as of yesterday, and is all but staying in place (or it just broke before the image was captured).  I won't be surprised if it breaks into three icebergs by the time it reaches Hall Basin (the part of Nares Strait beyond the mouth of Petermann Fjord). (Sentinel Playground image)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 26, 2017, 04:27:00 AM »
Another difference is the very thin (mm thickness) ice that froze over the edges of the melt ponds (that appears white when the water level drops a little due to air getting below the thin skim of ice) is all gone.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 07:27:31 PM »
And now, an hour later, clear.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 06:27:22 PM »
2 hours later, the smudge has moved down.  Anybody have clues?

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 05:22:54 PM »
Is this some sort of smudge on the lens or is the Snow Queen whizzing by?  Anybody actually have a clue?  Is that a shadow on the right (click or scroll to see)? Hmmm.

There was some talk of "Smart Cities" and I came across this article on Fox News.
America’s first smart city is almost 2,500 miles from Silicon Valley. So it’s not San Francisco. It’s also 1,200 miles from Austin, Texas, home to one of America’s fastest-growing STEM workforces. It’s not Portland, Ore., Denver, Kansas City or Pittsburgh, either — though all were finalists in the 2016 Smart City Challenge.

America’s first smart city is Columbus, Ohio — the fastest-growing city in the Buckeye State and the second largest city in the Midwest, after Chicago.

Now, with $40 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Transportation and another $10 million from Vulcan Inc., a company founded by Microsoft billionaire Paul Allen, Columbus — “The Crossroads of Ohio” — is poised to become the blueprint for the future of urban planning.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 25, 2017, 04:50:11 PM »
Robeson Channel (northern Nares) and the southern Lincoln Sea ice flow between July 23 and 24 was northward! (DMI images)  Easy to see is a floe off the mouth of Petermann Fjord.  An interesting eddy appears to have formed southwest of the Petermann Fjord mouth.

The Kane Basin appears to have kept the surviving part of the 'Bell Floe' (red marked) for the time being.

Someone remarked how ice is melting within Nares Strait.  I believe them!

heading north
Relevant links
From July 17 AWS17 blog
HEALY will mobilize the first of four summer missions, 1701, the 21 day Coast Guard Research and Development Center mission.

(whatever that is!)

Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: July 25, 2017, 04:13:33 PM »
A much better map than what I created June 15, 2015 (above)!
Mind you, by an ironic conincidence, "less than 1 million km2 of ice extent"  is almost exactly 15% of the average 1990s summer minimum...

Ha, I was wondering about that. Thanks, Peter. [...]

I like to say 'ice-free for all practical purposes', after hearing Walt Meier putting it like that once.

Someone has almost certainly already done this, but I don't know where, so I re-invented this wheel...

Here's a map showing what 1.0 million, 0.5 million, and 0.1 million km2 of ice extent could look like.  It's based on the grid cells with the maximum concentration in NSIDC September maps for the years 2008-2016.  My assumption is that ice will last longest in grid cells where Sept concentration is consistently the highest over the past decade.

If someone knows of a better version of this analysis here or elsewhere, please let me know!

Looking at the map, I'd say that 1 million km2 is actually a bit high for an "ice-free" threshold, personally.   

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 25, 2017, 04:04:17 PM »
I know that wili, but 'they' don't usually say it so plainly.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid July update)
« on: July 25, 2017, 03:33:56 PM »
What I notice on Wipneus's graph is the September 10 plots used to be (1980 & 90s) consistently above the 0.26m plot and in recent years (starting in 2007, I believe) has tended towards being at or between the 0.26 and 0.71m plots.  I would suggest September 10, 2017 will follow this trend, and with a greater likelihood of it being closer to the 0.71m plot than the 0.26m plot. 

There won't be a record low ice volume, however, unless the minimum drops below the .71m point.  As there is more <0.26m ice than there was in 2012 (or 2016) on July 22, this might happen.

Disclamer:  Wipneus's graph shows the trends.  Weather will determine the details.  :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 25, 2017, 03:02:26 PM »
In Wipneus's Delta Map, I note a broad area in the Beaufort Sea with the concentration in the low-concentration ice increasing (>7%) and at its edge concentration dropping below 15%.  This looks like a consolidation process: draw the scattered floes in to the pack and give up the edges to ice-freedom.

I presume this is an example of "high pressure scatters and low pressure gathers" (Now-cast from Climate Reanalyser via ASIG)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 02:41:21 PM »
leaning backwards
Is this related to this O-Buoy 14 GPS information?

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 25, 2017, 02:30:15 PM »
At the end of an article in Bloomberg about a drilling company's decision to reduce drilling is this quote ("Shale Boom May Finally Have Succumbed to Oil’s Price Slump"):
“As long as investors continue to invest in companies with growth, with marginal wellhead economics, you’ll get more growth," Walker said during the June 20 meeting. “You guys can help us help ourselves. It’s kind of like going to AA. We need a partner. We need somebody to sit through that class with us."
Sort of sounds like a Ponzi scheme!

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 24, 2017, 11:08:22 PM »
English tends to be a legalistic language (due to its several cultures? Hmmm), so "definitions" are sooo important.  ::) :P :o ;D and now  :-X

Espen: I curious what you mean.
If "my" piece calves, would you consider that to be a "substantial calf"?  How about a quarter or third of it?  (These are possibilities due to other growing cracks.)  Or do you mean a fjord-wide calving event for which there are also growing cracks? (Such a large calving event is not expected by me this summer.)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 24, 2017, 09:38:38 PM »
See additional definitions in my post above.  None (alas) include "puddle ice", unless you consider Hudson Bay to be 'just a puddle'.

I wondered why only two individuals are named, but the heading 'picture' does include the term "2018" which suggested it was not referring to 2013.  I didn't think to contrast the equivalent page in French that mentions 2018 in the text (and is the text I 'translated' in March).

Here is a GIF showing Sentinel Playground images of June 16, June 30 and July 19.  Is it changing light or is the crack widening?  The glacier is certainly progressing!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:59:35 PM »
Шпицберген = Špicbergen = Spitsbergen
(not that I know Russian, but I can use a few internet resources)

An English language page has
La Voie Du Pôle
2018 Traversée de L’Océan Artique à la Voile
something like:
Via the Pole
2018 Sailing Across the Arctic Ocean
Sebastien Roubinet and Vincent Berthet are crossing the Arctic Ocean, through water and ice, with only the wind and their own stamina to carry them. The departure is set from Alaska with arrival in Spitsbergen via the North Pole, after nearly 3000 km (1750 nautical miles). They will be aboard a very peculiar vessel, a catamaran / ice boat hybrid capable of sailing on both water and ice.  When the winds will be favorable, the sails will be able to carry them; otherwise they will need to tow the boat themselves for two, maybe three months… without any external assistance.
 What is their motivation? Several reasons: a technological bet, a sporting challenge requiring extraordinary physical and mental health, and love of the Polar Regions. Love, and therefore fear for those countries threatened by recent climate changes.
Back to hibernation...

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:23:11 PM »
From the NSIDC Glossary referenced in our ASIF Glossary
fast ice

ice that is anchored to the shore or ocean bottom, typically over shallow ocean shelves at continental margins; fast ice is defined by the fact that it does not move with the winds or currents.

[not included is a picture of fast ice]

Note: This is land fast ice. (Photo courtesy of Michael Van Woert, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce.)

Also, from Oxford Index:
Any lake, river, or sea ice that is attached to the shore (including ice shelves), grounded in shallow water, or frozen to the bottom.

[the following is additional info - "edit"...]

and from Global Cryosphere Watch's glossary (also ASIF-recommended)
[see NSIDC definition above]

Sea ice which forms and remains fast along the coast, where it is attached to the shore, to an ice wall, to an ice front, between shoals or grounded icebergs. Vertical fluctuations may be observed during changes of sea-level. Fast ice may be formed in situ from sea water or by freezing of pack ice of any age to the shore, and it may extend a few metres or several hundred kilometres from the coast. Fast ice may be more than one year old and may then be prefixed with the appropriate age category (old, second-year, or multi-year).

Consolidated solid ice attached to the shore, to an ice wall or to an ice front. It forms by freezing to the shore of the ice cover forming in the coastal zone or as a result of freezing of drifting ice of any age category to the shore or fast ice. Vertical movement may be observed during tidal oscillations. It can be preserved without fracturing for two or more years transforming from first-year ice to multiyear ice and even shelf ice. The fast ice width can vary from several hundreds of meters to several hundreds of kilometers. That part of fast ice presenting a narrow fringe of ice directly attached to the coast with a shallow bottom and unresponsive to tidal oscillations that remains after the fast ice has moved away is called the Ice foot. Fast ice at the initial stage of formation consisting of nilas and young ice with a width up to 100-200 m is called young coastal ice. When coding and depicting fast ice on ice charts, total concentration is not indicated as this is always equal to 10/10 in accordance with the definition.

Sea ice that forms and remains fast along the coast, where it is attached to the shore, to an ice wall, to an ice front, between shoals or grounded icebergs. Vertical fluctuations may be observed during changes of sea level. Fast ice may be formed on site from sea water or by freezing of pack ice of any age to the shore, and it may extend a few yards (meters) or several hundred miles (kilometers) from the coast. Fast ice may be more than one year old and may then be prefixed with appropriate age category (old, second- year, or multiyear). If it is thicker than about 7 ft (2 m) above sea level, it is called an ice shelf.

Sea ice terminology, describing ice which forms and remains fast along the coast. It may be attached to the shore, to an ice wall, to an ice front, or between shoals or grounded icebergs. It can extend between a few metres to several hundred kilometres from the coast. It may be more than one year old, in which case it may be attached to the appropriate age category (old, second year or multi-year). If higher than 2 m above sea level, it is called an ice shelf.

Sea ice that is immobile due to its attachment to a coast, usually extending offshore to about the 20-m isobath. In protected bays and inlets, fast ice is smooth and level, typically reaching a thickness of between 2 and 2.5 m. Along exposed coastlines, fast ice may be greatly deformed. (Also called landfast ice.)

Sea ice which remains fast along the coast, where it is attached to the shore, to an ice wall, to an ice front, or over shoals, or between grounded icebergs. Fast ice may extend a few m or several hundred km from the shore. Fast ice may be more than one year old. When its surface level becomes higher than about 2 m above sea level, it is called an ice shelf.

Most definitions here and elsewhere (internet search) declare that 'fast ice' occurs only on salty (ocean/sea) water.  But this is not universal.  Some definitions ignore the first couple of meters of ice against a shore (or the equivalent). 

I guess the ice stuck fast to my windscreen (windshield) on rare winter mornings isn't actually fast ice - but hey, wind and currents don't move it!

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:11:09 PM »
No more 'bullish about the future' (this year, anyway)!
Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - remains bullish on El Niño appearing this year.  Of course "bullish about the future" is different from El Niño has arrived.


Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 24, 2017, 03:55:34 PM »
I figured out a fallacy in my July 14 post.  The relationship between Iceberg A68 and the remaining Larsen C Ice Shelf is not just a transverse fault, although it looks pretty much like one within the red oval.  The purple arrow pairs are collinear and equally gapped.  One set shows the actual relative movement, the other pair doesn't.  (Whereas the red pair of arrows shows actual relative movement.) (PolarView image from July 22.)

PS: the paper linked by this post may explain my July 14 behavior!
An excellent paper on how students in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences have difficulty in conceptualizing complex systems.
Students’ Understanding of Complex Dynamic Systems

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: July 23, 2017, 11:56:22 PM »
Given what we can see between the two images, I wonder what the inter-a-what-cha-ma-call-it-feromitor "interferometry" (used on Larsen C by Project MIDAS, showing details we couldn't see) shows.

The rest / Re: Favorite songs about Nature
« on: July 23, 2017, 11:12:04 PM »
I grew up with Tom Lehrer and Swann & Flanders (actually was introduced to Donald Swann at a Quaker meeting in South Africa in 1979 or '82 [I was there twice]!).  Therefore:
The Wild West Is Where I Want to Be [where I grew up - under the potential shadow of a potential accident at Los Alamos]
The Hunting Song  [grew up doing a tame version of this]
Poisoning Pigeons in the Park  [did not do this]
We Will All Go Together When We Go  [not yet, anyway]

The Hippopotamus Song (Mud Glorious Mud)

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 23, 2017, 06:50:28 PM »
I know it wasn't for the purpose of reducing future oil production (and I'm not an expert on the matter) but Alaska uses tax receipts from oil and gas production to give Alaskan citizens a 'direct' rebate.  I thought I read somewhere that these revenues are declining, and the dividend shrank, and that the state has functionally lost its cash cow, but my skimming this Wikipedia article suggests (by not mentioning it) this hasn't happened. 

What I've learned from this Alaskan experiment (remember, I'm not an expert!) is that once there is an income source for people, they are loathe for it to disappear.  What happens after 10 or 20 years of luxury tax (i.e., tax on CO2) and dividend to citizens when it all but disappears because almost no one pumps oil and gas any more? (I know: survival, but "I want my free lunch back.")

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2017, 06:19:23 PM »
Upticks both in extent and area. ...
Without actually going back to document my sense, I believe several folks (I was mum on the issue, having somewhat learned the lessen Jim & Terry named) predicted a melting lull that seems to have occurred a little later than expected, but here, none-the-less.  (And congratulations to you unnamed individuals!)

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 21, 2017, 06:51:15 PM »
Iceberg A68 is wrecking havoc on the frozen sea ice off of Larsen C Ice Shelf: at least for now.  The crack through the fast ice shown here (PolarView 11 pm on July 18) isn't apparent on the 8 am image (posted above).  It is interesting to see how much the little icebergs have moved in 15 hours.  The largest of the small icebergs is about 5 x 12 km in size.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: July 21, 2017, 06:07:33 PM »
GMSTA means something to some people, but to me its something about 'global' and 'temperature' and probably 'anomaly', 'mean' and 'surface', but I'm taking an educated guess here.  There are some 30 posts that reference GMSTA, starting with: 
The second attached image shows Gavin Schmidt's pre-industrial GMSTA projection for the end of 2016 (based on data through the end of September 2016) indicate a mean value of 1.25C by the end of Dec 2016.  However, Gavin's projection is based on historical data and thus ESLD in a world with acceleration global warming.  This is indicated by the third attached image of daily NCEP/NCAR GMSTA values through Oct 16 2016; indicating that the world continues to be running hot.
Searching for "Global Mean Surface Temperature Anom" in the  relevant thread has four 'hits', so I'm guessing I guessed right.

Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: July 21, 2017, 04:37:15 PM »
Magma Chamber Surprisingly Close to Hawaii's Surface?
Lava source found within two miles of surface, research suggests.

Not many volcanic (magma) issues within a couple kilometers of the surface, except in some known hot spots.  I would avoid Yellowstone, but mostly because of hot water and toxic gasses, and I wouldn't want drilling to mess with its surface wonders.  I don't imagine methane ever being a serious issue (except in some Arctic environments), but avoiding old abandoned (unmapped) wells and tar pockets (in Los Angeles, for example) may be a challenge.

Except under mountains, I imagine a long distance tunnel would seldom be more than 50-100 meters from the surface.

Cutting through granite and other hard rock was a challenge in the 1850s, but isn't a challenge today.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 21, 2017, 04:07:30 PM »
I like what you are attempting.  I would 'wish', somehow, that the larger floes (maybe 10-20 percent of total area, depending on size criteria) could be made entirely ice-white.  Right now, they are all melty-black speckled, some approaching half-black.  I think this exaggerates how advanced the melt is.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 20, 2017, 08:48:24 PM »
Because this is the "Oil and Gas Issues" thread, I'm sure there are some Slimy Greens selling used Priuses, Bolts and Leafs and Oily Greens who don't use shampoo and, um, Gaseous Greens who like undercooked beans.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 02:44:55 PM »
O-Buoy 14 is on the move. Map shows movement since its computer woke up with spring sunshine.  Screen shots from yesterday's PolarView image. (Click on 'enlargement' for greater enlargement.)

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 20, 2017, 12:22:18 AM »
fast ice
ice that is anchored to the shore or ocean bottom, typically over shallow ocean shelves at continental margins; fast ice is defined by the fact that it does not move with the winds or currents.

The new ice attached to (and growing off of) the Larsen C ice shelf is fast ice.  The new ice that is attached to the iceberg (ice island) is not fast ice, as long as the iceberg is drifting around.  If the iceberg stops moving for a bit, there will temporarily (at least) fast ice between the two.  I rather expect the iceberg to get stuck in the winter fast ice later this SH winter. (But I'm not an iceberg expert.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 09:07:03 PM »
It is my belief.

As long as I drive a Prius (even a 15 years old one), among other 'sins' [note: it uses petrol], I count myself as being among those Green BAUers.  I've had friends and associates who are quite Green (way back to the latest 60's) so I have images of what it takes.

Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Drilling and Shipping
« on: July 19, 2017, 08:53:12 PM »
         He wasn't scared when World War III was declared
         He wasn't scared
         No sir-ee
              Tom Lehrer

Now The U.S. Coast Guard Wants Cruise Missiles On Its Icebreakers Too
By Tyler Rogoway - May 22, 2017
As Russia is building literally a new armada of new icebreakers, ice-capable supply ships, a massive arctic "research" submarine and icebreaker surface combatants armed with cruise missiles, the Pentagon is now looking at arming its relatively tiny fleet of future icebreakers with similar weapons as well.

The revelation came during a House subcommittee on Homeland Security hearing where Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Paul Zukunft was discussing the service's plans to build three new medium icebreakers, with the first delivery occurring by 2023. A major design study is underway now and the nature of the icebreaker's capabilities still remain up for debate, but the ability to add heavy weapons is something USCG is now interested in

Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Drilling and Shipping
« on: July 19, 2017, 08:42:46 PM »
Sad news:
Interior considering 3 Beaufort Sea projects
Margaret Kriz Hobson, E&E News reporter
Published: Tuesday, July 11, 2017
The Trump administration is expected to roll out the red carpet for three oil development projects in the Arctic Ocean, all of which are located in a sliver of the Beaufort Sea that was excluded from former President Obama's Arctic drilling ban.

The Interior Department is set to announce tomorrow whether Eni US Operating Co. Inc. can explore for oil on its federal Nikaitchuq North leases off Alaska's northeastern shore.

The company, a subsidiary of Italian multinational Eni SpA, is proposing to drill horizontal wells under the seabed to reach its federal leases. Those wells would be drilled from Spy Island, where Eni operates an oil facility in state of Alaska waters. If approved by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the company could begin drilling four wells this December.

Interior also is considering whether to give the Arctic Slope Regional Corp. more time to decide whether to drill on leases it received from Royal Dutch Shell PLC after Shell dropped out of U.S. Arctic oil development in 2015. Those leases are located in federal waters north of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and west of the Native village of Kaktovik.

Early this year ASRC Exploration LLC, a subsidiary of the Native-owned company, filed a request for a suspension of operations on those leases. Since then, the subsidiary, known as AEX, has also provided a detailed plan for developing those Arctic leases.

"If they give us a reasonable schedule for getting these leases developed, then we can grant them the time to do that," explained Mark Fesmire, director of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement's Alaska office. "We are considering that right now."

BSEE has already approved AEX's request to administratively combine the former Shell leases into a single tract now known as the Taktuk Unit. That decision applies to 20 of the 21 leases acquired from Shell. One of the leases was excluded because the company didn't provide enough information proving that it is geologically related to the other lands.

By unitizing the leases, the company will have greater flexibility to drill on any or all of the leases. "Drilling on one is the legal equivalent of doing lease holding activities on any of the other leases in the unit," Fesmire said. As a result, regulators can "treat that unit as one exploratory project."

The Trump administration is also considering a third oil exploration project, this one submitted by Hilcorp Alaska to develop its offshore Liberty leases. Those lands, located northeast of the oil industry town of Deadhorse, are jointly owned by BP.

BOEM is putting the finishing touches on a draft environmental impact statement for the Liberty project, which could be released later this month.

Under Hilcorp's 2014 development plan for Liberty, the company is proposing to build its drilling and processing facility on a man-made gravel island located 6 miles from shore.

Waters omitted from Obama ban

These three Beaufort Sea oil proposals are located in the 2.8-million-acre region that was omitted from Obama's Arctic withdrawal plan after Alaska state officials lobbied the White House to allow continued energy development in the oil-rich waters (Energywire, Jan. 17).

This roughly 200-mile-long region is located between the native communities of Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) and Kaktovik, between tracts of land that the two villages rely on for subsistence whaling.

Beaufort Sea oil has been flowing into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System since 1987 when production began at the Endicott field. The operation is located on an artificial island 3 miles off the shore and 15 miles east of Prudhoe Bay.

In October 2001, production began at a second offshore site, the Northstar field. That operation, located 12 miles northwest of Prudhoe Bay, was also built on a man-made island.

Hilcorp is currently the operator and majority owner of both facilities.

Healy in port (Seward, Alaska, 125 km south of Anchorage)

A lot more activity (that is: more clouds, school busses, and people on deck) than last year's similar image in August.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 06:57:43 PM »
I suggest it includes many of the investors that caused (from my Bloomberg quoute above):
An index of 40 publicly-traded solar companies, wind-turbine component makers and others that benefit from reduced fossil fuel consumption is up 20 percent this year.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 06:43:57 PM »
Green BAU = pro environment but still mostly Business As Usual
non-green BAU is 'all about' getting all the oil an gas and coal we can as quickly as possible, and making our penny today with no concern for others' future.

Green BAU  is usually used in a derogatory way:  if everybody lived like [fill in the blank rich person], but used 'only' green electricity, we'd all still be doomed, goes the understanding.  There is a suggestion that 'true Green' approaches are transformational, so that society will be qualitatively different than it did before.

This sort of happened in the USA during WW2, with some food and gasoline rationed, many folks grew some of their own food and took the train.  The reverse transformation after that war, however, compensated for the wartime 'green' behavior 100 or 10,000 times over.

Will we transform or go down fighting with BAU?

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 19, 2017, 05:52:50 PM »
There appears to be some fast ice growing in the young rift between Larsen C and Iceberg A68 (and friends). PolarView screen print.
Project MIDAS offers this (screen shot of part of their post's graphic with scale moved and Iceberg label recreated):
... a new rift appears to be extending northwards (towards the top left) and may result in further ice shelf area loss. Although this new rift will probably soon turn towards the shelf edge, there may be a risk that it will continue on to Bawden Ice Rise, a crucial point of stabilisation for Larsen C Ice Shelf.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 04:31:21 PM »
There is a complex tapestry woven by the 'truths' published here and yon, many of which attempt to reflect 'Truth'.  Bruce shared important 'there's disturbing conclusions to be drawn from industry data'.  I shared 'there's some gloom [coal is 'up' some], but not totally gloom [renewables are doing well]' information. 

I expected the housing bubble fail 'any day' from about 2000 (and sold and bought 2 homes [the 2nd time in that order] between then and 2005).  When the bubble burst in 2007-8, I wasn't surprised, but if I had more directly invested in the failure (buying some sort of futures), I would have been loosing my shirt for 7 years!

So in the short term, I think Bloomberg will often be approximately 'right'.  In the long term, Bruce's source will likely be 'right'.  In the longer term, my grand nieces and nephew will have to cope (or not) and I'll be dead.

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