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Messages - AbruptSLR

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The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: Today at 03:21:42 PM »
I've always believe that the ball is in the hands of the GOP. If they let Putin dictate American policy through Trump, then it is the end of the US as we know it.  From now on foreign governments will  establish back channels with the next presidents, that is now acceptable. From now on foreign governments can feel free to interfere with American elections. It has been established as an acceptable practice. The GOP has the power to stop this corruption, but they  have fallen for it themselves. It seems unlikely they will stop it.

While it is critical to keep working to hold the GOP accountable, I agree that it is unlikely that the GOP will improve their behavior regarding their promotion of kleptocracy in the US (& by extension to the world) and their denial of climate change.  As Trump would say: "Sad".

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: Today at 03:10:34 PM »
The mass contributions to GMSL increase from about 50% in 1993 to 70% in 2014 with the largest, and statistically significant, increase coming from the contribution from the Greenland ice sheet, which is less than 5% of the GMSL rate during 1993 but more than 25% during 2014.

Ice mass loss from WAIS has the potential to accelerate much faster than from the Greenland ice sheet.  We should find-out just how fast this acceleration will be in the next two to three decades.

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 04:26:22 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -7.7:

Hopefully, the CMIP6 runs will start with the correct (and high) ocean heat content:

Wang, G., Cheng, L., Abraham, J. et al. (2017) "Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses ", Clim Dyn, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3751-5

Abstract: "Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300–700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses."

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 26, 2017, 03:20:44 PM »
Trump is now blaming Obama for this collusion because Obama did not stop Putin:

"Sean Hannity just gave away that proof of collusion between Donald Trump and Russia is about to surface"

Extract: "Hannity flat out stated that if the Trump campaign asked Russia to release the emails it hacked and stole from the Democratic Party, then the whole thing was some kind of patriotic act, and not collusion.

In other words, Hannity is softening up his own audience for when the proof surfaces that the Trump campaign and Russia did collude on the stolen emails. Whether he’s been given the heads-up by Trump, or by the Russians, or by someone in the media, he knows that the proof is about to surface. It’s the same reason Trump is suddenly admitting Russia hacked the election, and trying to spin it into an Obama scandal. It’s also the same reason Russia is quickly taking Sergey Kislyak off the table: it wants him to no longer be the Russian Ambassador when the proof surfaces that he engineered the collusion."

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 26, 2017, 03:49:19 AM »
The linked article discusses some of the limits of Mueller's powers:

Title: "The powers and limits of Robert Mueller's new job as special counsel"

Extract: "Q. What are a special counsel's powers?

A. Under Justice Department regulations, a special counsel has all the authority of a U.S. attorney, including the ability to initiate investigations, subpoena records and bring criminal charges. One difference, however: Special counsels get to choose whether they inform the Justice Department what they're up to. Before taking "significant" actions, however, the special counsel must notify the attorney general.

Q. Will the results of the investigation become public?

A. Not necessarily. When a special counsel closes shop, he or she must give the attorney general a confidential report explaining the decision to bring charges or drop the matter. The attorney general would have to notify Congress of the conclusion, but can decide whether to make the special counsel's report public."

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: June 26, 2017, 03:30:01 AM »
Per the following data and the attached plot both issued by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI first has moved down to -7.1 then drifted up to -7.0:


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 26, 2017, 03:16:54 AM »
The linked article reviews some of the ways that Mueller's investigation could be short-circuited by either Team Trump and/or the Congressional GOP leadership:

"No, We Can’t Rely On The Special Counsel To Uncover The Cover-Up"

Extract: "There’s no guarantee that Mueller will be allowed to complete his investigation, or that his findings will be disclosed if he does."

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 26, 2017, 03:01:02 AM »

I question the wisdom of Schiff's assertions made at this time. I just don't see it as productive. No doubt in my mind that Trump is a crook and is involved to some degree, (perhaps a very large degree!) with Russiagate. I do trust Mueller and look forward to finding out the results of his inquiry. That will be a good time to discuss legal actions and impeachment.



I think the point is that Ryan & McConnell might protect Trump by suppressing the public release of Mueller's report and refusing to initiate impeachment proceedings even if the report has evidence of Trump's guilt.  Thus as a Special Counsel has the power to form grand juries, Mueller could initiate a public trial thus getting around GOP politics.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 25, 2017, 09:54:26 PM »
If he has sufficient evidence, it might be good if Mueller were to prosecute Trump on criminal charges, just so the SCOTUS can make a ruling on this point of law:

"Can a sitting president be indicted? The Constitution doesn't give a definitive answer"

Extract: "The U.S. Supreme Court has never decided whether a president may be criminally prosecuted while in office, and the U.S. Constitution doesn’t give a direct answer."

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 25, 2017, 09:37:39 PM »
Really, I think the reluctance to prosecute a sitting President couldn't possibly hold if, for example, a President were videotaped murdering someone in the Oval office.  Thus, whether or not a President could be prosecuted would depend on the severity of the crime and quality of evidence.  A speeding ticket should be set aside, RICO violations, not so much.

While I do not have access to the evidence that Mueller has, I highly suspect that Trump has at least committed RICO violations, and likely other high crimes.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 25, 2017, 09:31:15 PM »
I read your posts on this thread with great interest ASLR, but I question just how objective Rep. Schiff is on this matter.


When you have been wronged, and you go to trial, do you want your attorney to be your advocate?  The two party system works by both sides advocating their respective constituents and we all hope that consequently the system stays in balance.  As per the US Constitution, impeachment is a political act, I most certainly hope that Schiff advocates on the side of the Democrats (and don't even try to imply that the GOP operates without bias, especially after Mitch McConnell's behavior).


Edit: If you are looking for impartiality, you can hold Bob Mueller to that standard.

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: June 25, 2017, 09:20:59 PM »
The New World Order without Resistance:

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: June 25, 2017, 03:42:45 PM »
Per the linked website the PDO for May 2017 was +0.88:

Edit: However, I suspect that ENSO conditions will roughly plateau for some time to come as hinted at by the attached ECMM MJO forecast

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 25, 2017, 03:38:07 PM »
Per the linked Palmer Report article, Adam Schiff stated that he believes that it is legal to criminally prosecute POTUS, within the Federal judicial system.  Go Mueller!:

"Adam Schiff has something up his sleeve, hints at Donald Trump being prosecuted for his crimes"

Extract: "Schiff, who has past experience as a prosecutor, just said the following: “My view is there’s no legal prohibition on prosecuting a President of the United States.” "

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: June 25, 2017, 03:27:59 PM »
Just for the record, neither the BoM, nor Long Paddock, current SOI values are available at the moment.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 25, 2017, 03:18:02 PM »
The linked October 8, 2016 article discusses how Obama directly accused Putin of meddling in the 2016 election; which Trump disputed until last week (& now Trump accuses Obama of not doing anything).  It is the people who ignored Obama's warning and voted for Trump who should be held accountable for their greed and arrogance:

Title: "Obama administration accuses Russian government of election-year hacking"

Extract: "Signaling a low-point in Washington-Moscow relations perhaps not seen since the Cold War, the Obama administration on Friday ended months of speculation and blamed Russia for deploying its hackers to meddle with the U.S. election.

The accusation came at the end of a week that saw the United States halt negotiations with Russia over joint operations in Syria targeting extremist groups."

The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: June 25, 2017, 02:55:41 PM »
In the Flint Michigan case state official have been charged with involuntary manslaughter due to their "depraved-indifference" to the risks that their actions were incurring to human life.  At some point (if we are not already past this point) the actions of government officials regarding climate change (think Team Trump) will meet the legal definition of "depraved-indifference" and then we can put these heartless officials into prison for very long terms:

"Michigan officials charged in Flint Legionnaires' outbreak"

Extract: "Several Michigan state officials, including some who reported to Gov. Rick Snyder, have been charged with involuntary manslaughter in connection with a Legionnaires' outbreak that killed 12 people during the Flint water crisis, the Michigan attorney general's office said Wednesday.

"That arrogance that people would want to sweep this away and that there are nameless, faceless bureaucrats who caused this and no one responsible is outrageous," he said adding that this is proof the system is working."

See also the linked Wikipedia article entitled: "Depraved-heart murder"

Extract: "In United States law, depraved-heart murder, also known as depraved-indifference murder, is an action where a defendant acts with a "depraved indifference" to human life and where such act results in a death. In a depraved-heart murder, defendants commit an act even though they know their act runs an unusually high risk of causing death or serious bodily harm to a person. If the risk of death or bodily harm is great enough, ignoring it demonstrates a "depraved indifference" to human life and the resulting death is considered to have been committed with malice aforethought."

The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: June 25, 2017, 04:14:49 AM »
The linked research/reference could lead to improvements of the quantum gravity theory and the holographic principle:

C. M. Herdman, P.-N. Roy, R. G. Melko, A. Del Maestro. Entanglement area law in superfluid 4He. Nature Physics, 2017; DOI: 10.1038/NPHYS4075

Abstract: "Area laws were first discovered by Bekenstein and Hawking, who found that the entropy of a black hole grows proportional to its surface area, and not its volume. Entropy area laws have since become a fundamental part of modern physics, from the holographic principle in quantum gravity to ground-state wavefunctions of quantum matter, where entanglement entropy is generically found to obey area law scaling. As no experiments are currently capable of directly probing the entanglement area law in naturally occurring many-body systems, evidence of its existence is based on studies of simplified qualitative theories. Using new exact microscopic numerical simulations of superfluid 4He, we demonstrate for the first time an area law scaling of entanglement entropy in a real quantum liquid in three dimensions. We validate the fundamental principle that the area law originates from correlations local to the entangling boundary, and present an entanglement equation of state showing how it depends on the density of the superfluid.""

See also "When helium behaves like a black hole":

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 25, 2017, 03:18:51 AM »
The linked articles are a follow on to my last post:

Title: “Naomi Klein: ‘Trump is an idiot, but don’t underestimate how good he is at that'"

Extract: “Trump, she suggests in her new book, No Is Not Enough, exploited that phenomenon to become the first incarnation of president as a brand, doing to the US nation and to the planet what he had first practised on his big gold towers: plastering his name and everything it stands for all over them.

Klein has also charted the other force at work behind the victory of the 45th president. Her 2007 book, The Shock Doctrine, argued that neoliberal capitalism, the ideological love affair with free markets espoused by disciples of the late economist Milton Friedman, was so destructive of social bonds, and so beneficial to the 1% at the expense of the 99%, that a population would only countenance it when in a state of shock, following a crisis – a natural disaster, a terrorist attack, a war.
Speaking at her home in Toronto last week, Klein suggested to me that Trump’s novelty was to take the shock doctrine and make it a personal superpower. “He keeps everyone all the time in a reactive state,” she said. “It is not like he is taking advantage of an external shock, he is the shock. And every 10 minutes he creates a new one. “

See also: “Neoliberalism in the Driver's Seat: Trump and Ryan's Ruling-Class Schemes”

Extract: “The neoliberal content of the Trump administration's policies comes from Paul Ryan, the Club for Growth, the Heritage Foundation, the Chamber of Commerce ... this is the policy-planning apparatus of the American ruling class.”

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 24, 2017, 10:54:58 PM »
Team Trump and Steve Bannon are the legacy of earlier efforts to develop & implement the “Shock Doctrine”:

“The Shock Doctrine [2009] Documentary by Naomi Klein”

Extract: "The Shock Doctrine is Canadian author and social activist Naomi Klein's companion piece to her popular 2007 book of the same name. In short, the shock doctrine is a theory for explaining the way that force, stealth and crisis are used in implementing neoliberal economic policies such as privatization, deregulation and cuts to social services."

For background on neoliberalism, see:

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 24, 2017, 09:50:51 PM »
As the President of the United States may well be a criminal and may be working to replace "Rule by Law" with "Rule by Man"; I thought that that it might be helpful to provide a link to the Wikipedia article on criminology, so that we can better appreciate what society should consider to address such likely criminal behavior:

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: June 24, 2017, 07:41:44 PM »
As for all practical purposes the influence of permafrost degradation feedback was essentially omitted from AR5, the linked reference can be viewed a one ESLD attempt to introduce the impact of such feedback; which indicates up to a 12% increase in global warming by 2100 above the AR5 projections.

Burke, E. J., Ekici, A., Huang, Y., Chadburn, S. E., Huntingford, C., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Peng, S., and Krinner, G.: Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks, Biogeosciences, 14, 3051-3066,, 2017.

Abstract. The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land–atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN–JULES and IMOGEN–ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric – the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years – that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 24, 2017, 06:10:03 PM »
When atomic scientists warn us all about the dangers of falling under the reality bending (brainwashing) spell of the kleptocrats that control the populists, it is time to listen (see the image of the relationship of Trump, the novel/movie "The Manchurian Candidate" and populist brainwashing):

Extract: "Both novel and film focus on brainwashing and its potential for skewing US politics. (Brainwashing back then was a new term in English, a literal translation of a Chinese phrase.) In both novel and film, scientists from the Soviet Union collude with their Red Chinese counterparts to turn an American soldier, Sgt. Raymond Shaw, into a killing machine, one whose ultimate job will be to assassinate the American president.

But the number one villain of the piece is Shaw’s own mother, indelibly played in the 1962 film version by Angela Lansbury—for which she was named one of the top 25 cinema villains in Time. It is she, as the “American operative” working hand-in-glove with Communist masterminds, who will direct the mission intended to hand the reins of national power to her new husband, the buffoonish vice-presidential candidate. (She chillingly sums up the plot’s goal as “rallying a nation of viewers to hysteria, to sweep us up into the White House with powers that will make martial law seem like anarchy.”) Though her stated political views are conservative and overtly anti-Communist, she is in fact ruled by a pragmatic determination to serve herself, even at her country’s expense. The derailing of her plot by the end of the story means we don’t know just how far she was prepared to go, but her steadfast exaltation of self above the public’s interests suggests a clear and present danger to the people of the world.

Sound familiar?

One overall message of The Manchurian Candidate is that Russia and its allies are not to be trusted. Nor should we trust those who make nice with the Russians for their own personal gain.  The striking thing about Lansbury’s character, Mrs. John Yerkes Iselin, is the way she plays both sides of the street. As the ambitious wife of a lackluster politician (in an era when a woman could only aspire to be the power behind the throne), she has carefully molded her spouse into a populist, a chap whose amiable mediocrity is attractive to the common man. Then she plays the anti-Communism card: Soon Senator Iselin is grabbing headlines with sweeping McCarthy-esque allegations about the number of Reds in the State Department. Underneath it all, though, Mrs. Iselin is using covert Soviet tools to undermine an American presidential election. The fact that her own son, Sgt. Shaw, is to be the assassin is something she accepts with equanimity.

There’s little sense, thank goodness, that our current administration is made up of murderous stooges whose brains are addled (or, in Condon’s term, “dry-cleaned”) to this degree. Rather, the Trumpians who hold the reins of power seem to feel that they’re clear-eyed patriots mandated to shake up a moribund system by inventing rules of conduct as they go along. In their own minds, they’re independent thinkers. Still, it’s entirely possible they can be tripped up or compromised by forces much too subtle to reveal their true intentions. After all, there’s more than one way to be duped—or to dupe oneself.

Although The Manchurian Candidate is by no means an exact prediction of what is happening today, book and film are starting to look extremely prescient. In the course of the story, the mechanism used to control the actions of the brainwashed Sgt. Shaw is the Queen of Diamonds in an ordinary deck of playing cards. Whenever Shaw (Laurence Harvey in the film) threatens to exert his own independence, a voice on the phone suggests that he pass the time with a little game of Solitaire. As soon as he turns up the Queen, he’s under the thumb of whomever issues a firm command. Right now the Queen of Diamonds seems to be running rampant in Washington, DC. And basic democratic principles are being trumped by the man with the loudest voice."

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 24, 2017, 04:15:50 PM »
For those who fall prey to Trump's reality bending BS, ask yourself why Trump's campaign and the Kremlin were always saying the same thing to attack a fellow American in order to disrupt order to the benefit of kleptocrats around the world.

Title: “Everyone piles on after Donald Trump slips up and admits Russia rigged the election for him”

Extract: “Counterintelligence expert Clint Watts also hit back: “Maybe Obama admin trying to figure out why you & Kremlin were saying the same things at the same time while election hacks were occurring. Or maybe they were trying to figure out why you would cite Russian false propaganda to mislead Americans and attack a fellow American.”“

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: June 24, 2017, 03:30:52 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -6.4:

If you want to help Trump, promote removal of Pelosi as Minority Leader:

“Donald Trump is praying that the Democrats are stupid enough get rid of Nancy Pelosi”

Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: June 23, 2017, 03:41:52 PM »
If tests on geoengineering are likely to occur, why not set them up so as to determine the aerosol-cloud feedback interaction so that climate model projections can be refined?

Robert Wood et. al. (22 June 2017), "Could geoengineering research help answer one of the biggest questions in climate science?", Earth's Future, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000601

Extract: "Anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds constitute the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the radiative forcing of climate, and hinders our ability to determine Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas increases. Representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in global models is particularly challenging because these interactions occur on typically unresolved scales. Observational studies show influences of aerosol on clouds, but correlations between aerosol and clouds are insufficient to constrain aerosol forcing because of the difficulty in separating aerosol and meteorological impacts. In this commentary, we argue that this current impasse may be overcome with the development of approaches to conduct control experiments whereby aerosol particle perturbations can be introduced into patches of marine low clouds in a systematic manner. Such cloud perturbation experiments constitute a fresh approach to climate science and would provide unprecedented data to untangle the effects of aerosol particles on cloud microphysics and the resulting reflection of solar radiation by clouds. The control experiments would provide a critical test of high-resolution models that are used to develop an improved representation aerosol-cloud interactions needed to better constrain aerosol forcing in global climate models."

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 23, 2017, 01:31:00 PM »
The WP article discusses Obama's efforts to punish Russia for Putin's assault on the 2016 election.  Now Trump is encouraging Russia and continuing to attack Obama:

"Obama’s secret struggle to punish Russia for Putin’s election assault"

Extract: "Early last August, an envelope with extraordinary handling restrictions arrived at the White House. Sent by courier from the CIA, it carried “eyes only” instructions that its contents be shown to just four people: President Barack Obama and three senior aides.

Inside was an intelligence bombshell, a report drawn from sourcing deep inside the Russian government that detailed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s direct involvement in a cyber campaign to disrupt and discredit the U.S. presidential race.

But it went further. The intelligence captured Putin’s specific instructions on the operation’s audacious objectives — defeat or at least damage the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, and help elect her opponent, Donald Trump."

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: June 23, 2017, 01:21:48 PM »
Here is something on Trump and Climate Change:

While the linked reference applies to paleoclimate glacial conditions, the message that gradual increases in carbon dioxide can cause abrupt climate change, is not reassuring for our communal futures:

Xu Zhang et al. (2017), "Abrupt North Atlantic circulation changes in response to gradual CO2 forcing in a glacial climate state", Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2974

Abstract: "Glacial climate is marked by abrupt, millennial-scale climate changes known as Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. The most pronounced stadial coolings, Heinrich events, are associated with massive iceberg discharges to the North Atlantic. These events have been linked to variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, the factors that lead to abrupt transitions between strong and weak circulation regimes remain unclear. Here we show that, in a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model, gradual changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations can trigger abrupt climate changes, associated with a regime of bi-stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under intermediate glacial conditions. We find that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations alter the transport of atmospheric moisture across Central America, which modulates the freshwater budget of the North Atlantic and hence deep-water formation. In our simulations, a change in atmospheric CO2 levels of about 15 ppmv—comparable to variations during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles containing Heinrich events—is sufficient to cause transitions between a weak stadial and a strong interstadial circulation mode. Because changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are thought to alter atmospheric CO2 levels, we infer that atmospheric CO2 may serve as a negative feedback to transitions between strong and weak circulation modes."

See also the associated linked article entitled: "Scientists throw light on mysterious ice age temperature jumps"

Extract: "In a new study published today, the researchers show that rising levels of CO2 could have reached a tipping point during these glacial periods, triggering a series of chain events that caused temperatures to rise abruptly.

The findings, which have been published in the journal Nature Geoscience, add to mounting evidence suggesting that gradual changes such as a rising CO2 levels can lead to sudden surprises in our climate, which can be triggered when a certain threshold is crossed.

Previous studies have shown that an essential part of the natural variability of our climate during glacial times is the repeated occurrence of abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

These events are characterized by drastic temperature changes of up to 15°C within a few decades in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This was the case during the last glacial period around 100,000 to 20,000 years ago.

It is commonly believed that this was a result of sudden floods of freshwater across the North Atlantic, perhaps as a consequence of melting icebergs.

Co-author of the study Professor Stephen Barker, from Cardiff University's School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, said: "Our results offer an alternative explanation to this phenomenon and show that a gradual rise of CO2 within the atmosphere can hit a tipping point, triggering abrupt temperature shifts that drastically affect the climate across the Northern Hemisphere in a relatively short space of time.

"These findings add to mounting evidence suggesting that there are sweet spots or 'windows of opportunity' within climate space where so-called boundary conditions, such as the level of atmospheric CO2 or the size of continental ice sheets, make abrupt change more likely to occur. Of course, our study looks back in time and the future will be a very different place in terms of ice sheets and CO2 but it remains to be seen whether or not Earth's climate becomes more or less stable as we move forward from here".

Using climate models to understand the physical processes that were at play during the glacial periods, the team were able to show that a gradual rise in CO2 strengthened the trade winds across Central America by inducing an El Nino-like warming pattern with stronger warming in the East Pacific than the Western Atlantic.

As a result there was an increase in moisture transport out of the Atlantic, which effectively increased the salinity and density, of the ocean surfaces, leading to an abrupt increase in circulation strength and temperature rise.

"This does not necessarily mean that a similar response would happen in the future with increasing CO2 levels, since the boundary conditions are different from the ice age," added by Professor Gerrit Lohmann, leader of the Paleoclimate Dynamics group at the Alfred Wegener Institute.

"Nevertheless, our study shows that climate models have the ability of simulating abrupt changes by gradual forcing as seen in paleoclimate data.""

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: June 23, 2017, 03:27:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -5.7:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 23, 2017, 02:15:08 AM »
Team Trump is in trouble again:

"Trump Sued For Allegedly Violating Presidential Records Act"

Extract: "Two government watchdog groups, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington and the National Security Archive, filed a lawsuit Thursday against President Trump and the Executive Office of the President.

The complaint alleges that White House staffers' widely reported use of encrypted messaging apps, such as Signal and Confide, for internal communication violates the Presidential Records Act.

In the lawsuit, the groups claim the Trump administration has "failed to adopt adequate policies and guidelines to maintain and preserve presidential records."

The link reference help to identify the missing carbon sink in models:

Yu Li, et. al (2017), "Substantial inorganic carbon sink in closed drainage basins globally", Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2972

Abstract: "Arid and semi-arid ecosystems are increasingly recognized as important carbon storage sites. In these regions, extensive sequestration of dissolved inorganic carbon can occur in the terminal lakes of endorheic basins—basins that do not drain to external bodies of water. However, the global magnitude of this dissolved inorganic carbon sink is uncertain. Here we present isotopic, radiocarbon, and chemical analyses of groundwater, river water, and sediments from the terminal region of the endorheic Shiyang River drainage basin, in arid northwest China. We estimate that 0.13 Pg of dissolved inorganic carbon was stored in the basin during the mid-Holocene. Pollen-based reconstructions of basin-scale productivity suggest that the mid-Holocene dissolved inorganic carbon sink was two orders of magnitude smaller than terrestrial productivity in the basin. We use estimates of dissolved inorganic carbon storage based on sedimentary data from 11 terminal lakes of endorheic basins around the world as the basis for a global extrapolation of the sequestration of dissolved organic carbon in endorheic basins. We estimate that 0.152 Pg of dissolved inorganic carbon is buried per year today, compared to about 0.211 Pg C yr−1 during the mid-Holocene. We conclude that endorheic basins represent an important carbon sink on the global scale, with a magnitude similar to deep ocean carbon burial."

The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: June 22, 2017, 03:11:15 PM »
The linked research demonstrates that the brain processes information in multiple dimensions (beyond 3D).  This supports the concept that mindfulness meditation can help people access information beyond classical theory:

Michael W. Reimann, Max Nolte, Martina Scolamiero, Katharine Turner, Rodrigo Perin, Giuseppe Chindemi, Paweł Dłotko, Ran Levi, Kathryn Hess, Henry Markram. Cliques of Neurons Bound into Cavities Provide a Missing Link between Structure and Function. Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience, 2017; 11 DOI: 10.3389/fncom.2017.00048

"The lack of a formal link between neural network structure and its emergent function has hampered our understanding of how the brain processes information. We have now come closer to describing such a link by taking the direction of synaptic transmission into account, constructing graphs of a network that reflect the direction of information flow, and analyzing these directed graphs using algebraic topology. Applying this approach to a local network of neurons in the neocortex revealed a remarkably intricate and previously unseen topology of synaptic connectivity. The synaptic network contains an abundance of cliques of neurons bound into cavities that guide the emergence of correlated activity. In response to stimuli, correlated activity binds synaptically connected neurons into functional cliques and cavities that evolve in a stereotypical sequence toward peak complexity. We propose that the brain processes stimuli by forming increasingly complex functional cliques and cavities."

See also:
'Multi-dimensional universe' in brain networks

Extract: "Using mathematics in a novel way in neuroscience, scientists demonstrate that the brain operates on many dimensions, not just the 3 dimensions that we are accustomed to

Using a sophisticated type of mathematics in a way that it has never been used before in neuroscience, a scientists have uncovered a universe of multi-dimensional geometrical structures and spaces within the networks of the brain. This research has significant implications for our understanding of the brain.

Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: June 22, 2017, 11:36:53 AM »
Game theory has significant implications to society and to adapting to coming changes, and the linked reference discusses how quantum game theory can be combined with Nash-equilibrium theory and can used to establish fair gaming conditions:

Pei Zhang et. al. (2017), "Quantum gambling based on Nash-equilibrium",npj Quantum Information 3, Article number: 24, doi:10.1038/s41534-017-0021-7

Extract: "The problem of establishing a fair bet between spatially separated gambler and casino can only be solved in the classical regime by relying on a trusted third party. By combining Nash-equilibrium theory with quantum game theory, we show that a secure, remote, two-party game can be played using a quantum gambling machine which has no classical counterpart. Specifically, by modifying the Nash-equilibrium point we can construct games with arbitrary amount of bias, including a game that is demonstrably fair to both parties. We also report a proof-of-principle experimental demonstration using linear optics."

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 22, 2017, 11:18:17 AM »
As a follow-on to my last post, I support Naomi Oreskes' assessment that the only ways to fix climate change denial in the USA is to either change the GOP, "... or to vote Republicans out of office":

"The Republican party – not Trump – is the biggest obstacle to climate action" by Naomi Oreskes

Extract: "There’s a saying in business: fix the problem, not the blame. It’s a nice concept, but you can’t fix a problem if you don’t know its cause. And just as the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change is clear, the historical evidence of opposition to action is also clear: the greatest obstacle to American action on climate change for the past 20 years has been the Republican party, and this opposition has proven itself to be impervious to argument, even from what one might think would be trusted sources.

American business and religious leaders, distinguished senior Republicans who served in the Nixon and first Bush administrations, and even the Pentagon have called for action on climate change. But it has had no impact on Republican policies.

This conclusion is hard for some to accept, particularly for scientists, as it seems overtly partisan. (And it may seem unfair to the few, courageous Republicans who have spoken out on the issue.) But as scientists have called upon us to accept the reality of climate change, we must accept the reality that American climate change denial is not bipartisan. It is Republican. And the only way to fix it is to change the Republican party, or to vote Republicans out of office."

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 22, 2017, 10:07:41 AM »
And to which tribe do we belong? In what way does that make us blind to things?

While this thread does not have a particularly philosophical bent, nevertheless, I provide the first linked Alternet article entitled: "The Deep Roots of Left vs. Right", to point out that the best way to improve our current politically polarized situation is to progressively move back towards a point of yin-yang balance of the constraints of freedom vs security:

Extract: "“I’m left wing,” or “I’m right wing,” morphs too, reflecting changing coalitions and interests. Today, left and right have come to mean factions that would like the other faction out of the way. They’re not a yin and yang that need each other. They’re warring kingdoms competing for exclusive dominion over the same space, and then competing over which kingdom is to blame for starting the warring.

Remembering that what we’re all really negotiating—the right balance of constraint and freedom, security and liberty—may make us more receptive to negotiation, and smarter negotiators too, not taken in by hyperbolic half-truths about the one true way."

Also, the linked article indicates that the 4th Industrial Revolution will open new doors for young people to establish new norms of human interaction.

"Riding the Next Wave of Human Evolution"

Extract: "With their deep comfort with uncertainty and technology, coupled with their hardwired sense of inclusion, Millennials are blazing the trail by transforming workplaces. When used well, technological connections facilitate extended conversations and build trusting relationships transcending time and space, with all the potential this unleashes. The future leaders of this relationship network, where the world is connected in ways that shift our minds and brains, are the Millennials. Consider this: How might the Millennial generation be riding the next wave of human evolution?"

I am not trying to present Pollyannaish visions of guaranteed utopia; only a path forward that may result in a softer socio-economic collapse circa 2050-2060; & in my opinion that middle path includes putting up resistance to Trump's (& Putin's) alt-right extremism, for the good of sustainability.

The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: June 22, 2017, 09:52:41 AM »
My recent prior posts consider reality as an information computer, or Dhamma within the Pali Cannon reference frame.  In this sense, the Hilbert Space Frames (matrices) are determined by the heterarchical structure given in the Pali Cannon's Abhidhamma (see the first image as an example of a yin-yang like heterarchical structure); while the deep neural network learning (see the second image) performed using these Hilbert Space Frames as templates, utilizes the random-walk like nature of the free-will dimples of HIOTTOE to complete our understanding of reality (see the third image).

It is important to remember that within HIOTTOE, the perception of physical properties requires at least two direct knowledge vectors in a row (see the previously posted Lila diagrams), and to observe both 3D space and time requires at least a circuit of eight dimples.  Therefore, the perception of inflation would start at multiple zones of the Nibbanic plane with circuits of eight dimples. When considering circuits with increasing numbers of dimples, these local circuits in the Nibbanic plane would periodically interconnect (causing cosmic inflation) following "random walk" behavior (associated with free will expression) resulting in larger aggregations that I propose would follow the math developed by Witten & Sander for diffusion-limited aggregation, DLA, (see the  linked Wikipedia DLA article and the following associated linked reference by Arneodo et al 1993).

Extract: " Diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) is the process whereby particles undergoing a random walk due to Brownian motion cluster together to form aggregates of such particles."

Also see:

Arneodo, A., Argoul, F., Muzy, J.F. & Tabard, M. (1993), "Beyond Classical Multifractal Analysis Using Wavelets: Uncovering a Multiplicative Process Hidden in the Geometrical Complexity of Diffusion Limited Aggregates", Complex Geometry, Patterns, and Scaling in Nature and Society, Vol 1, Issue 3,  DOI:

Abstract: "We emphasize the wavelet transform as a very promising tool for solving the inverse fractal problem.  We show that a dynamical system which leaves invariant a fractal object can be uncovered from the space-scale arrangement of its wavelet transform modulus maxima.  We illustrate our theoretical considerations on pedagogical examples including Bernoulli invariant measures of linear and nonlinear Markov maps as well as the invariant measure of period-doubling dynamical systems at the onset of chaos.  We apply this wavelet based technique to analyze the fractal properties of DLA azimuthal Cantor sets defined by intersecting the inner frozen region of large mass off-lattice DLA clusters with a circle.  This study clearly reveals the existence of an underlying multiplicative process that is likely to account for the Fibonacci structural ordering recently discovered in the apparently disordered arborescent DLA morphology.  The statistical relevance of the golden mean arithmetic to the fractal hierarchy of the DLA azimuthal Cantor sets is demonstrated."

It is my understanding that such math can be used to relate the number of linear vectors to branching points in reducible vector aggregations according to the number pi and the golden mean, see the following linked reference:

Furthermore it is my understanding as further aggregation of local circuits occurs this math indicates that the ratio of connected branch nodes to the total number of branch points is the natural number "e". I propose this is related to fact of why the formula for Shannon Entropy can be written with terms with natural logarithms (see the second image).  These two DLA correlations may be related to why the Boltzmann constant is close to the value of 10 to the "e" power to the "pi" power, or 1.38 times 1023 (i.e. the number of free will points in the Nibbanic plane).

Previously, I cited that the quantum Hilbert Space can be thought as an approximation of a subset of the Nibbanic Plane (and then that holographic theory can be used in the Hilbert Space to calculate physical properties of the holographic universe).  Also previously, I correlated the 1023 X 1023 possible configurations of the free will networks in the Nibbanic Plane to the entire String Theory Landscape  (representing many different multiverses in F-Theory, see the fourth image).  In this sense the Hilbert Space only represents the configuration of the free will network in the Nibbanic Plane that corresponds to the universe that we experience/perceive; which is associated with one free will dimple that has direct knowledge vectors connected to each of the other expressed free will dimples in the Nibbanic Plane; which is associated with a fully realized free-will dimple.  Furthermore, just as Shape Dynamics associates a parity horizon with the event horizon around a black hole; so such a fully realized free-will dimple is associated with a parity horizon around our universe that isolates it from the other possible "baby universes" in the multiverse (I note that "before" the dimple becomes fully realized it is perceived to reside in an "early" "baby universe"). 

Furthermore, I have previously noted that the HIOTTOE considers the perception of time as knowledge of a subset embedded with the whole/timeless Nibbanic Plane.  In this sense the Big Bang is associated with the subset around the fully realized dimple (that is connected to all other dimples), and that while the total energy of the universe does not change with increasing time, the entropy of the universe does change as the  entanglement of larger subsets changes (i.e. entropy is very low at the Big Bang and increases as the universe expands due to dark energy).  Using information theory this rapid change in entropy from the Big Bang (from the fully realized dimple) can be associated with inflation (see Ray Kurzweil's "The Age of Spiritual Machines" and Replies #86 to 88).  Thus in HIOTTOE, time is change; where change is the perception of differences (particularly differences in entanglement) between subsets of the free will information network.  Maxwell's Demon and quantum information theory demonstrate how such entanglement information from the free will network correlates to entropy.

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: June 22, 2017, 03:23:34 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.1:


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: June 22, 2017, 01:53:26 AM »
The simple truth of the matter is that core Trump supporters are so tribal that they will not admit buyer's remorse.  Thus, either the GOP (both party & congressional leadership) needs to trout-out a more moderate platform that will give these hard core supporter enough political cover to behave rationally; or the Trump resistance movement needs to be a fight to the death (because Trump is telling the world to: "Drop Dead").

"No regrets for Trump voters: The media needs to stop looking for buyer’s remorse"

Extract: "Psychological research shows people are too tribal and afraid to admit they were wrong to regret their votes

What’s it going to take to get Donald Trump’s supporters to see the light? It’s a question on the minds of not only liberals but also anyone who still cherishes our democracy, and it grows more intense as evidence piles up of corruption and even suspicions of criminal activity by members of the Trump administration. Indeed, waiting and watching for signs of buyer’s remorse among Trump supporters has become a minor cottage industry within the mainstream media, with reporters and TV anchors displaying an almost pornographic interest in watching the mental hoops that Trump voters will go through so as to stand by their man."

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 22, 2017, 01:34:25 AM »
Finally, Congress is questioning whether Kushner's security clearance should be revoked:

"Democrats Seek Records On Jared Kushner As Administration Tries To Stifle Oversight"

"Democrats on the House Oversight Committee want to see White House records on the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, his security clearance and his access to classified information.

In a letter to White House chief of staff Reince Priebus, the oversight panel's 18 Democrats question why Kushner's security clearance hasn't been revoked."

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: June 22, 2017, 01:26:46 AM »
On the contrary, I think overpopulation is clearly the major problem, not industrialization.  If we had a population of 1 billion people on the earth instead of 7.4 billion (with same socioeconomic distribution), we'd need 1/7th as much land used for agricultural production, and the same reduction in land use for  roads, cities, and suburban sprawl.

Beyond this, modern technologic industrialization tends to use resources more efficiently.  Transportation is more efficient, manufacturing is more efficient, and per-acre yields in agriculture are higher. 

On a per-capita basis, technological advances are part of the solution, in general.  The whole problem is too many of those capita.

On the other hand, if all of our current 7.5 billion people work working with good intent towards a solution then we would be in very good shape.  However, what our current reality is: "If 'you' are not part of the solution then 'you' are part of the problem".

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 22, 2017, 01:19:43 AM »
Just who in Trump's close circle isn't under investigation now?

"Kellyanne Conway is under investigation for Russia ties"

I think that we should be careful in hoping that an accumulation of smaller local actions will make-up for Trump's short-comings in federal action; as too much focus on small steps can exhaust political will to more effectively fight climate change with bigger actions:

"Small Steps to Save Energy Exhaust Political Will for Bigger Actions"

Extract: "A study in Japan finds that after people unplug appliances and turn down the A-C, they are more resistant to nationwide climate change measures"

The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: June 21, 2017, 06:56:15 PM »
Here I make a few brief comments as to how HIOTTOE relates to a Holographic interpretation of the universe where holographic entanglement ties the boundary to the bulk; where I focus on the differences between "free-will" and "fate":

1. First, I note in both a hologram and in entangled systems (like a boundary entangled with the bulk) each part of the system contains a low-resolution part of the whole body of information (as in the Buddhist concept of becoming one with everything).  In discussed by John Preskill in the videos linked in Reply #353, this distributed information can be used for error correction in 'quantum/holographic' computing.

2. In Reply #361, I talked about Frames (matrices) within a Hilbert Space also providing for error correction associated with the structure of the information signal contained within a free-will information network or within a holographic model of the universe.  This signal-Frame method of error correction is distinct from that holographic/distributed-information error correction cited in item 1, but they both work concurrently to help the models in our minds to understand/compute meaning.  Furthermore, the yin-yang toy model of the universe that I discussed in Reply #361 was meant to indicate that the yin-yang frames would be fractal in nature and would distribute yin-yang boundaries throughout the bulk in a manner similar to dots of black glycerin stirred into a container of clear glycerin (which is an example that David Bohm used to illustrate how information can be retrieved from a holographic system as if one reverses the stirring action one would recover the original black dots).

3. As I presented it, the arrows in a HIOTTOE 'free-will" information network represent direct knowledge while holographic entanglement threads represent measurements/observations on an imaginary boundary around a bulk.  This is significant in that HIOTTOE has a realm of information beneath the network circuits required to create an observable "universe" such as Holographic based models (based on String Theory, Quantum Gravity and either GR or Shape Dynamics) of the universe that we live in.  This can be illustrated by the first two attached Lila theory diagrams for one unit of space and for one unit of space and one unit of time, respectively; while the third image shows a pattern for energy using recusion.  Furthermore, a holographic model uses string manifolds such as a Calibi-Yau Maniford to represent fundamental observable properties of the universe, while a Lila diagram uses circuits like that shown in the last image of charge , and I note that if one where to substitute a 'wormhole' ER=EPR entanglement thread to replace the vectors in the Lila circuit one could develop string manifolds that look much like a Calibi-Yau Manifold.

4. Previously, I noted that a Hilbert Space can be thought as an approximation of a subset of the Nibbanic Plane, and then that holographic theory can be used in the Hilbert Space to calculate physical properties of the holographic universe. Also, I noted that a Holographic Universe acts like an information computer with evolutionay algorithms (see the first linked Wikipedia article); which creates an illusion of "egotistical free-will" (ala Claude Shannon's information theory, such as that discussed in the second linked Wikipedia article on Gausian adaption).

Extract: “Gaussian adaptation as an evolutionary model of the brain obeying the Hebbian theory of associative learning offers an alternative view of free will due to the ability of the process to maximize the mean fitness of signal patterns in the brain by climbing a mental landscape in analogy with phenotypic evolution."

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: June 21, 2017, 06:03:10 PM »
Latest MSL data from March 2017. Any thoughts/explanations on why MSL has been flat for over a year? Seems incredulous due to all the melting of Greenland and Antarctica? Could it be related to in the influx of colder water reducing the thermal expansion effects?

While I concur with the posts from wehappyfew, rboyd & oren; scale can also clarify what is happening.  The attached Jason-2 sea level time series thru May 2017 shows a trend line slope of 4.41 mm/yr; vs the trend line slope that you showed of 3.28 mm/yr.  This difference shows the contribution of meltwater, but you do not notice it in your post because you are distracted by ENSO induced fluctuations between varying rainfall patterns between land and ocean and also ENSO induced fluctuations between heat absorbed by the ocean (the ocean absorbs more heat energy during a La Nina and less heat during an El Nino).

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 21, 2017, 03:30:58 PM »
The linked article emphasizes that Trump already appears to be putting his thumb on the intelligence community:

"Donald Trump’s CIA Director Mike Pompeo looks dirtier in the Russia scandal by the minute"

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: June 21, 2017, 04:03:31 AM »
Trump's money laundering of Russian money is coming back to bite him in the rear:

"Treasury Department’s financial crimes unit is giving up Donald Trump’s money laundering records"

Extract: "The financial crimes unit is turning over its financial records in relation to Donald Trump’s business, according to a CNN report (link). As Palmer Report was the first to report back on April 15th (link), the Treasury FinCEN division busted the Trump Taj Mahal casino for money laundering back in the spring of 2015. This was announced in a press release on the FinCEN website (link), but it only became a part of the Senate’s Trump-Russia investigation after our research team dug it up and publicized it."

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: June 21, 2017, 03:21:47 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.3:


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