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Messages - AbruptSLR

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1
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 03:55:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.5:

2
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: May 24, 2017, 03:28:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.4:

3
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 24, 2017, 02:32:50 AM »
The linked Palmer Report article is entitled: “As the Trump-Russia scandal explodes, Donald Trump hires attorney with RICO experience”, maybe they have evidence of Trump laundering Russian money.

http://www.palmerreport.com/politics/attorney-rico-trump/3027/

Extract: “... Trump has hired an attorney with expertise in defending clients against RICO cases and action brought by state attorneys general. This sounds a lot like Trump may be most worried about the prospect of the Special Counsel uncovering evidence of RICO (money laundering) in Trump’s businesses – and that he may also be worried about New York State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman getting involved with the case against him.“

4
Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: May 23, 2017, 09:35:33 PM »
The linked reference indicates that the Younger Dryas may be due to a comet strike instead of a change in the AMOC:

 Martin B. Sweatman and Dimitrios Tsikritsis (2017), "DECODING GÖBEKLI TEPE WITH ARCHAEOASTRONOMY: WHAT DOES THE FOX SAY?", Mediterranean Archaeology and Archaeometry, Vol. 17, No 1, pp. 233-250,  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.400780

http://maajournal.com/Issues/2017/Vol17-1/Sweatman%20and%20Tsikritsis%2017%281%29.pdf

Abstract: "We have interpreted much of the symbolism of Göbekli Tepe in terms of astronomical events. By matching low-relief carvings on some of the pillars at Göbekli Tepe to star asterisms we find compelling evidence that the famous ‘Vulture Stone’ is a date stamp for 10950 BC ± 250 yrs, which corresponds closely to the proposed Younger Dryas event, estimated at 10890 BC. We also find evidence that a key function of Göbekli Tepe was to observe meteor showers and record cometary encounters. Indeed, the people of Göbekli Tepe appear to have had a special interest in the Taurid meteor stream, the same meteor stream that is proposed as responsible for the Younger-Dryas event. Is Göbekli Tepe the ‘smoking gun’ for the Younger-Dryas cometary encounter, and hence for coherent catastrophism?"

See also:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/04/30/ancient-stone-tablet-found-reveals-comet-impact-sparking-the-rise-of-civilization/#4a16ac9c7342

5
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: May 23, 2017, 06:16:13 PM »
Also, I think that I have not been so clear about the relationship of the geothermal heat flux and the basal ice melting in the WAIS.  Therefore, the linked reference (see also the first attached image and associated caption below) provides more evidence of high geothermal flux and associated basal melt water beneath the Thwaites Glacier, both of which will threaten its future stability:

Dustin M. Schroeder, Donald D. Blankenship, Duncan A. Young, and Enrica Quartini, (2014), "Evidence for elevated and spatially variable geothermal flux beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet", PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1405184111

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/06/04/1405184111.abstract

http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2014/06/04/1405184111.DCSupplemental

Also see:
http://www.utexas.edu/news/2014/06/10/antarctic-glacier-melting/

Caption: "This map shows the locations of geothermal flow underneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica that were identified with airborne ice-penetrating radar. The dark magenta triangles show where geothermal flow exceeds 150 milliwatts per square meter, and the light magenta triangles show where flow exceeds 200 milliwatts per square meter. Letters C, D and E denote high melt areas: in the western-most tributary, C; adjacent to the Crary mountains, D; and in the upper portion of the central tributaries, E. Credit: University of Texas Institute Geophysics"

For those who are interested, I provide the following the second image from:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/high-heat-measured-under-antarctica-could-support-substantial-life/

Finally, the third image should another image of the subglacial drainage system beneath Thwaites & PIG, while the fourth image shows the associate surface ice flow velocities from 2016.

6
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: May 23, 2017, 06:08:45 PM »
I feel that in Reply #291, I wasn't very clear on the recent subglacial lake drainage event beneath Thwaites Glacier.  Therefore, here is more information on the June 2013 to Jan 2014 drainage of four subglacial lakes beneath the Thwaites Glacier.  The article is entitled: "Hidden lakes drain below West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier".

http://www.washington.edu/news/2017/02/08/hidden-lakes-drained-under-west-antarcticas-thwaites-glacier/

Extract: "Researchers at the University of Washington and the University of Edinburgh used data from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 to identify a sudden drainage of large pools below Thwaites Glacier, one of two fast-moving glaciers at the edge of the ice sheet. The study published Feb. 8 in The Cryosphere finds four interconnected lakes drained in the eight months from June 2013 and January 2014. The glacier sped up by about 10 percent during that time, showing that the glacier’s long-term movement is fairly oblivious to trickles at its underside.

Melting at the ice sheet base would refill the lakes in 20 to 80 years, Smith said. Over time meltwater gradually collects in depressions in the bedrock. When the water reaches a certain level it breaches a weak point, then flows through channels in the ice. As Thwaites Glacier thins near the coast, its surface will become steeper, Smith said, and the difference in ice pressure between inland regions and the coast may push water coastward and cause more lakes to drain."

7
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 23, 2017, 04:21:52 AM »
The two articles discuss Trump's budgetary assault on governance:

The first linked article is entitled: “Trump's first budget: Trillions in cuts”

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/22/news/economy/trump-budget/index.html

&

The second linked article is entitled: “Trump is picking the wrong battle on health care”

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/22/opinions/trump-medicaid-cuts-opinion-zelizer/index.html

8
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 23, 2017, 03:41:12 AM »
The linked article is entitled: “White House Moves To Block Disclosure Of Ethics Waivers For Trump Appointees”.  It looks like the WH is engaged in an all out assault against ethics in governance.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/22/529502156/white-house-moves-to-block-disclosure-of-ethics-waivers-for-trump-appointees

Extract: “The White House is blocking a move by the Office of Government Ethics to compile waivers of federal ethics rules that have been granted to officials hired into the administration from corporations and lobbying firms.

At the same time, an anti-Trump legal group has filed suit to make those waivers public.

The Trump administration and OGE are fighting on other fronts, as well:
— OGE earlier this month announced a new certification document for Cabinet secretaries and other top-ranking appointees to show they are fulfilling the ethics agreements they signed before being confirmed by the Senate. Ethics agreements typically commit a nominee to avoid ethics violations through a blind trust, divestiture, recusal or similar action.
The document must be signed by the official. As with tax returns and other federal documents, false statements run the risk of penalties. There was no previous oversight of compliance.

— The White House has raised a conflict-of-interest question to challenge newly appointed special counsel Robert Mueller, who will oversee the FBI's investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
...

— Last winter, Shaub used Twitter to exhort Trump into putting his hundreds of corporations into a blind trust. Trump instead put them into a revocable trust, where he can draw money from his businesses whenever he wants.”

9
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: May 23, 2017, 03:28:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.7:

10
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 23, 2017, 02:52:14 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Trump asked DNI, NSA to deny evidence of Russia collusion".  Talk about a pattern of trying to obstruct justice ???

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/22/politics/donald-trump-intelligence-community/index.html

Extract: "President Donald Trump called two top intelligence community figures to request that they deny in public any evidence of collusion between his campaign and the Russian government during the 2016 election, multiple current and former US officials with knowledge tell CNN.

Trump's requests to Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and National Security Agency Director Adm. Michael Rogers came after then-FBI Director James Comey publicly revealed before the House intelligence committee on March 20 that the FBI had an investigation into collusion to influence the 2016 election."

11
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 23, 2017, 12:41:21 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Manafort, Stone Turn Over Russia Documents to Senate Intel Committee"; however, it is still too early to say how meaningful these documents are.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/manafort-stone-turn-over-russia-documents-senate-intel-committee-n763141

Extract: "Two former associates of President Trump — Paul Manafort and Roger Stone — have turned over documents to the Senate Intelligence Committee in its Russia investigation, a congressional source with direct knowledge told NBC News.

Earlier this month, the committee sent document requests to Manafort and Stone, as well as Carter Page and Mike Flynn, officials said previously. The requests sought information pertaining to dealings with Russia. Page has not yet complied, the congressional source said, and Flynn plans to assert his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination as a reason not to comply with a committee subpoena, a source close to him has said."

12
See also the attached image from 2016 data (release Feb 8 2017):

http://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2017/02/Glacier_speed_West_Antarctica

Extract: "This image from Sentinel-1 and geographic base map shows the speed of ice flow in West Antarctica. Reaching speeds of over 3 km per year, Thwaites and Pine Island are two of the fastest receding glaciers on the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet. Applying interferometric synthetic aperture swath processing techniques to CryoSat data revealed that four lakes beneath Thwaites drained into the Amundsen Sea."

13
The linked reference studies a subglacial draining event beneath Thwaites Glacier from June 2013 to January 2014:

Smith et. al. (2017), "Connected subglacial lake drainage beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica", The Cryosphere, 11, 451–467, doi:10.5194/tc-11-451-2017

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/451/2017/tc-11-451-2017.pdf


Here is more information on the June 2013 to Jan 2014 drainage of four subglacial lakes beneath the Thwaites Glacier.  The article is entitled: "Hidden lakes drain below West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier".

http://www.washington.edu/news/2017/02/08/hidden-lakes-drained-under-west-antarcticas-thwaites-glacier/

Extract: "Researchers at the University of Washington and the University of Edinburgh used data from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 to identify a sudden drainage of large pools below Thwaites Glacier, one of two fast-moving glaciers at the edge of the ice sheet. The study published Feb. 8 in The Cryosphere finds four interconnected lakes drained in the eight months from June 2013 and January 2014. The glacier sped up by about 10 percent during that time, showing that the glacier’s long-term movement is fairly oblivious to trickles at its underside.

Melting at the ice sheet base would refill the lakes in 20 to 80 years, Smith said. Over time meltwater gradually collects in depressions in the bedrock. When the water reaches a certain level it breaches a weak point, then flows through channels in the ice. As Thwaites Glacier thins near the coast, its surface will become steeper, Smith said, and the difference in ice pressure between inland regions and the coast may push water coastward and cause more lakes to drain."

14
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 22, 2017, 11:32:46 PM »
The linked Palmer Report is entitled: "While speaking in Israel today, Donald Trump blurted out more classified intel about Israel".

http://www.palmerreport.com/opinion/more-israel-classified/3001/

Extract: "And so today Trump proudly chastised reporters to their faces over the fact that he never told the Russians the intel came from Israel.

So now we’ve got Donald Trump publicly revealing classified information while incorrectly bragging that he hadn’t privately revealed classified information. And he did it while standing next to the prime minister of the ally who gave the United States the classified information to begin with."

15
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: May 22, 2017, 07:23:07 PM »
Per the linked article, by using quantum science Maxwell's Demon can not only allow for the design of more efficient cooling & energy extraction systems (beyond that achievable following the 2nd law of thermodynamics); but will also facilitate the use of AI  (with less waste by improved use of information):

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/physicists-test-maxwells-demon-with-beams-of-light-2

Extract: "The demon’s ability to create this temperature difference without the expenditure of work appeared to Maxwell to be in violation of the second law of thermodynamics, which states that two bodies of different temperature, when brought into contact with one another in isolation from the rest of the universe, will establish a thermodynamic equilibrium. Another way of putting this is that in an isolated system, entropy never decreases—although Maxwell’s hypothetical did in fact seem to allow the entropy of the system to decrease.

In the years since Maxwell initially proposed his hypothetical, physicists have managed to satisfactorily explain away the evident paradox of Maxwell’s demon. According to some of these physicists’ explanations, although Maxwell’s demon is not directly doing work on the system, it is extracting information about the system by sorting the molecules. The process of extracting this information about the system is a form of work, and therefore the entropy of the system does in fact increase in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics.

Although physicists were able to show that Maxwell’s paradox didn’t actually violate the second law of thermodynamics, the exact nature of the relationship between the extraction of work from a system and the information about this system acquired through measurements which explained the paradox was not that well understood. This was the relationship that the Oxford team hoped to elucidate with their photonic demon.



According to the team, its experiment is the first step toward gaining a better understanding of how thermodynamics plays out on microscales. A better understanding of the link between information and thermodynamics could have a variety of real world applications, ranging from more efficient cooling and energy extraction systems to application in quantum information technologies.

“Personally I think that sort of technology will have a real impact on meeting the energy challenge facing the world,” said Dahlsten. “We are already thinking of ways in which features such as entanglement can be introduced in future experiments based on this one, as our interests gravitate around quantum information.”"

16
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 22, 2017, 06:57:42 PM »
The linked Palmer Report article is entitled: "Donald Trump heads to Israel amid assessment that the Israeli spy he outed to Russia is likely dead", which may be a problem even if one is an extreme narcissist like Trump:

http://www.palmerreport.com/politics/israel-spy-dead-trump/2992/

Extract: "Juliette Kayyem, the former Assistant Secretary for U.S. Homeland Security, has told The Independent that the Israeli spy in question is “likely dead” as a direct result of Donald Trump’s mouth (link)."

17
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: May 22, 2017, 06:18:27 PM »
As a follow-up to Replies #288 & 289, the first attached Sentinel 1a image of the Pine Island Ice Shelf, PIIS, for May 21 2017, shows that the crack in the PIIS is becoming wider and may interconnect with the large crack in the ice shelf for the SW Tributary glacier.  If/when both of these ice shelves calve they may relieve the buttress action of the SW Tributary glacier, which would put more stress on the Thwaites Glacier's eastern shear margin; which would cause the ice flow velocity for Thwaites to increase somewhat.

Edit: For those who cannot see the images in Reply #289, I provide the second attached image illustrating the connection between the Thwaites Eastern Shear Margin and the SW Tributary Glacier.

18
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: May 22, 2017, 05:53:12 PM »
The four attached images were issued by the BoM today for the weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending May 21, 2017.  These data indicate ENSO neutral conditions.

19
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: May 22, 2017, 05:50:45 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on May 17 2017; the first two NOAA Eq Pac. images for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two BoM images for the week ending May 21 2017, for the Nino 3.4 & IOD, indices, respectively: ENSO conditions are just below the El Nino border, and remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3

20
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 22, 2017, 03:52:48 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "WATCH: Dutch film “The Dubious Friends of Donald Trump”: Connecting the dots on Trump’s ties with the Russian mob".  Watch and learn about some of Trump's mob connections linked to the former USSR.

http://www.salon.com/2017/05/21/watch-dutch-film-the-dubious-friends-of-donald-trump-connecting-the-dots-on-trumps-ties-with-the-russian-mob/

Extract: "Documentary makers explore how Russia could have damning intelligence about Trump, and Putin could try to use it."

21
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: May 22, 2017, 03:27:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.8:

22
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: May 22, 2017, 02:00:30 AM »
For my last post in this series about an potential early trigger to the main phase collapse of the WAIS in the 2035 to 2040 timeframe, I provide the linked reference [Hay et. al (2016)] that evaluates the implications of more accurately considering a 3-D viscoelastic Earth models as opposed to the less accurate assumption of elastic response on the sea-level fingerprint implications of an abrupt collapse of the WAIS.  Their findings conclude that "… when viscous effects are included, the peak sea-level fall predicted in the vicinity of WAIS during a melt event will increase by ~25% and ~50%, relative to the elastic case, for events of duration 25 years and 100 years, respectively."  This is important as the local change in sea level is due to ice mass loss from the WAIS; and I note that the magma below the Thwaites Glacier has low viscosity.

Carling C. Hay, Harriet C. P. Lau, Natalya Gomez, Jacqueline Austermann, Evelyn Powell, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Konstantin Latychev, and Douglas A. Wiens (2016), "Sea-level fingerprints in a region of complex Earth structure: The case of WAIS", Journal of Climate, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0388.1


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0388.1


Abstract: "Sea-level fingerprints associated with rapid melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) have generally been computed under the assumption of a purely elastic response of the solid Earth. We investigate the impact of viscous effects on these fingerprints by computing gravitationally self-consistent sea-level changes that adopt a 3-D viscoelastic Earth model in the Antarctic region consistent with available geological and geophysical constraints. In West Antarctica, the model is characterized by a thin (~65 km) elastic lithosphere and sub-lithospheric viscosities that span three orders of magnitude, reaching values as low as ~4 × 1018 Pa s beneath WAIS. Our calculations indicate that sea-level predictions in the near field of WAIS will depart significantly from elastic fingerprints in as little as a few decades. For example, when viscous effects are included, the peak sea-level fall predicted in the vicinity of WAIS during a melt event will increase by ~25% and ~50%, relative to the elastic case, for events of duration 25 years and 100 years, respectively. Our results have implications for studies of sea-level change due to both ongoing mass loss from WAIS over the next century and future, large scale collapse of WAIS on century-to-millennial time scales."

I conclude this post by noting that the first image from Vaughan et. al. (2011) shows the height of ice above flotation for the WAIS, with superimposed black lines showing seaways that they believed occurred during the last collapse of the WAIS.  In the second image I have sketched on top of the Vaughan et. al. (2011) image the areas of the WAIS that I believe may initiate the main phase collapse of the WAIS circa 2040, assuming we follow RCP 8.5 through 2035.

23
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: May 22, 2017, 01:46:48 AM »
Next, I provide a few abstracts from the linked: "Proceedings of the Wellington Symposium", held 12–17 February 2017, Wellington, New Zealand

https://www.igsoc.org/symposia/2017/newzealand/proceedings/proceedings.html

The first abstract (75A2445) indicates that the ice mass loss from the major Greenland outlet glaciers are "… influenced not only by their interaction with the ocean but equally by their interaction with the atmosphere, making them potentially more sensitive to climate change than thought so far."  Thus, with atypically high warming of the GMSTA to at least 2035, we could expect atypically high ice mass loss from the major Greenland outlet glacier, that could increase the current rate of cooling of the North Atlantic surface waters; which could impact the thermohaline ocean circulation (see the first image).  However, the second abstract (75A2308) indicates that recent findings from the RICE (Roosevelt Island climate evolution) project in the Ross Ice Shelf of Antarctica indicates that when the North Atlantic cools, due to the bipolar seesaw, the coastal ocean waters in the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea areas warm rapidly.  The third abstract (75A2296) indicates that the ACME model confirms that with more global warming tropical Pacific atmospheric energy is telecommunicated to the Western Antarctic, which could increase local atmospheric temperatures resulting in more melt water ponds such as those indicated by the second image of surface melt days in Western Antarctica in January of 2005.  Lastly, the four abstract by DeConto (75A2456), indicates that hydrofracturing (from surface melt water) and cliff failures (from the loss of the Thwaites Ice Tongue) could trigger a collapse of the WAIS.

75A2445
Rapid melting in the basal zone of a major Greenland outlet glacier
Poul Christoffersen, Tun Jan Young, Bryn Hubbard, Samuel Huckerby Doyle, Alun Hubbard, Marion Bougamont, Coen Hofstede, Keith Nicholls
Corresponding author: Poul Christoffersen
Corresponding author e-mail: pc350@cam.ac.uk
The Greenland ice sheet is losing mass and raising sea levels by 1 mm a–1. While melting of the ice sheet explains half of the net annual loss, the other half is caused by dynamic processes operating in the catchments of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. These processes are poorly understood because they are confined to the basal zone, which is often inaccessible. The Subglacial Access and Fast Ice Research Experiment (SAFIRE) is addressing this paucity of data by drilling to the bed of Store Glacier, the second-largest outlet glacier in West Greenland in terms of flux. Seven 600-m-deep boreholes were drilled to the base of the glacier, about 30 km inland from the calving terminus, at a location where ice flows at a rate of 700 m a–1. Sensors installed at the bed and within ice show that the glacier overrides a warm bed consisting of soft, water-saturated sediment. Basal motion comprised a combination of intense deformation of temperature basal ice as well as sliding. High basal water pressure with diurnal variations showed that water produced on the surface is transported subglacially in a distributed basal water system, which nevertheless was sufficiently efficient to cause rapid lowering of the water level in all seven boreholes, once the system was intercepted. To evaluate the quantify of heat transported from surface to bed, we measured rates of basal melting with a phase-sensitive, frequency-modulated continuous wave (FMCW) radar system installed autonomously at the borehole drill site. The radar captured internal and basal reflector ranges at high spatial (millimetre) and temporal (hourly) resolutions, producing a unique time series of ice deformation and basal melting, coincident with englacial and subglacial borehole measurements. Here, we show that the rate of basal melting was 3 m a–1 in winter, when heat at the bed is provided mainly by basal friction, and that it increases to 20 m a–1 in summer, when heat is also transported to the bed from the surface. Our measurements show that the flow of outlet glaciers from the Greenland Ice Sheet is influenced not only by their interaction with the ocean but equally by their interaction with the atmosphere, making them potentially more sensitive to climate change than thought so far.

75A2308
Glacial Antarctic warm events as captured by RICE ice core
Abhijith UV, Nancy Bertler, Giuseppe Cortese
Corresponding author: Abhijith UV
Corresponding author e-mail: Abhijith.Uv@vuw.ac.nz
The last glacial period in Antarctica has been punctuated by several episodes of warm events, where air temperature rose between 1 and 3°C, which are referred to as Antarctic isotope maxima (AIM). On correlating high-resolution Antarctic and Greenland ice-core records for AIM events, an out-of-phase relationship has been observed between both the hemispheres, with Antarctica warming when Greenland is under a cold phase and Antarctica cooling when Greenland stays in a warm state. This out-of-phase relationship is called the ‘bipolar seesaw’. Possible explanations include oceanic teleconnections via a shift in strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation. A recent comparison between the WAIS Divide and NGRIP records identified a Northern Hemisphere lead of about 218 ± 92 a and 208 ± 96 a for the onset and termination of Dangaard/Oeschger and AIM events, further evidence for an important oceanic role in the interhemispheric energy distribution. Roosevelt Island is a local ice rise at the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. A 764 m deep ice core, the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) core, was obtained over two field seasons in 2011/12 and 2012/13. Due to its proximity to the Ross Sea, one of the major contributors to AABW, the RICE records have the potential to provide new insights into the drivers and consequences during the evolution of AIM events. Here, we will present preliminary data of the major ion record from the RICE ice core covering an age range of 18–60 ka with the main focus of understanding core aspects of AABW during AIM events, including its strength and mode of formation and further to test the bipolar seesaw hypothesis.

75A2296
Role of tropical teleconnections in changes in the Southern Ocean dynamics and Antarctic sea-ice extent in the ACME Earth System Model
Rahul Sivankutty, Diana Francis, Eayrs Clare, David Holland, Stephen Price
Corresponding author: Rahul Sivankutty
Corresponding author e-mail: rs5521@nyu.edu
Recent studies suggest that changes in the Southern Ocean, particularly the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, can influence the thermal structure of the upper ocean and thus affect sea-ice concentration in the Antarctic region. The poleward shifting of subtropical westerlies can result in changes in ocean circulation pattern. The changes in the Southern Annular Mode, and its linkage to tropical SST variability, prove that tropical teleconnections can play an important role in Antarctic climate variability. Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model – the US Department of Energy’s Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) – which includes coupled representations of all of the components of the physical climate system (atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land ice), we study the tropical linkages to the variability in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. The study validates the model’s ability to capture the observed teleconnection patterns. The mechanisms by which the tropical climate influences the dynamics of the Southern Ocean and thereby Antarctic sea ice variability are highlighted.

75A2456
Future fate of the polar ice sheets and implications for global coastlines
Rob DeConto
Corresponding author: Rob DeConto
Corresponding author e-mail: deconto@geo.umass.edu
New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse-gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500 m below sea level. Here, we will explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean, using models that include previously underappreciated physical processes, including surface meltwater-driven hydrofracturing and structural failure of ice cliffs. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat will also be discussed, as will the potential for policy and aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise.

24
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: May 22, 2017, 01:08:37 AM »
In my last post, I indicated that the dynamical impact of the current positive phase of the IPO may well accelerate the rate of increase of GMSTA through at least 2035.  While some readers may think that this is largely irrelevant as the IPO oscillates, so that after 2035 one would expect this dynamical impact to reverse itself during the following negative IPO phase, resulting in a neutral impact on climate change from the IPO.  However, such Pollyannaish thinking does not consider the fact that once triggered the main phase collapse of the WAIS is irreversible, and in this and the next few posts, I hope to present a few key considerations indicating that the initial stages of a WAIS main phase collapse could begin by the 2035 to 2040 timeframe.  I note that the Antarctic folder has multiple threads with more input on such a WAIS collapse scenario during this century:

Edit: I note that in September 2012 the Thwaites Ice Tongue flow rate surged and continued flowing at a high rate through the end of 2012 (and this high flow rate can be associated with the surface elevation depression shown in the second image)

In this regards, the linked reference studies a subglacial draining event beneath Thwaites Glacier from June 2013 to January 2014:

Smith et. al. (2017), "Connected subglacial lake drainage beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica", The Cryosphere, 11, 451–467, doi:10.5194/tc-11-451-2017

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/451/2017/tc-11-451-2017.pdf

Abstract. We present conventional and swath altimetry data from CryoSat-2, revealing a system of subglacial lakes that drained between June 2013 and January 2014 under the central part of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica (TWG). Much of the drainage happened in less than 6 months, with an apparent connection between three lakes spanning more than 130 km. Hydro-potential analysis of the glacier bed shows a large number of small closed basins that should trap water produced by subglacial melt, although the observed largescale motion of water suggests that water can sometimes locally move against the apparent potential gradient, at least during lake-drainage events. This shows that there are important limitations in the ability of hydro-potential maps to predict subglacial water flow. An interpretation based on a map of the melt rate suggests that lake drainages of this type should take place every 20–80 years, depending on the connectivity of the water flow at the bed. Although we observed an acceleration in the downstream part of TWG immediately before the start of the lake drainage, there is no clear connection between the drainage and any speed change of the glacier."

Related to this Smith et. al. (2017) reference, the first attached image shows the a 2009 image of the Thwaites subglacial cavity that collapsed before January 2013 (see the second image) and the location of the adjoining Thwaites subglacial lake that drained in the June 2013 to January 2014 timeframe.  I note that the Smith et. al. (2017) reference indicates that this subglacial lake drains every 20 to 80 years depending on the connectivity of the water flow on the bed (see the third image of the approximate layout of the Thwaites subglacial water drainage system), which means the next such drainage could well be in the 2035 to 2040 timeframe.  The fourth image shows how the glacial ice in this Thwaites gateway area breaks into relatively small (3 to 5 km on a side) icebergs that could float away from the Thwaites gateway during the next drainage event without being pinned to the seafloor as the current Thwaites Ice Tongue is.

25
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 21, 2017, 11:10:58 PM »
With Preibus coming home early....


The linked Palmer Report article indicates that Preibus is not the only WH staff member that will be coming home early:

http://www.palmerreport.com/opinion/early-reince-preibus-trump/2975/

Extract: "... Haberman added a followup tweet revealing that Priebus isn’t the only one who’s likely to end up bailing on the trip early, though she didn’t reveal the identity of the next to go."

26
Antarctica / Re: Glaciology Basics and Risks - Uncertainties
« on: May 21, 2017, 10:57:02 PM »
The following selected abstracts are from the linked: "Proceedings of the Wellington Symposium", held 12–17 February 2017
Wellington, New Zealand

https://www.igsoc.org/symposia/2017/newzealand/proceedings/proceedings.html


75A2218
The RICE ice core: timing and drivers of the deglaciation in the Ross Sea region
Nancy Bertler, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Corresponding author: Nancy Bertler
Corresponding author e-mail: nancy.bertler@vuw.ac.nz
Geological evidence and modelling experiments suggest that the removal of ice shelves from marine-based ice sheets can lead to catastrophic collapse. Roosevelt and Ross Islands are thought to be stabilization anchors for the Ross Ice Shelf and thus the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. As part of the Roosevelt Island climate evolution (RICE) project, a 763 m deep ice core was recovered during 2011–13 from Roosevelt Island, at the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. The ice at Roosevelt Island is grounded 210 m below sea level and accumulates in situ, with the Ross Ice Shelf flowing around the rise. High-resolution radar surveys show a well developed Raymond Bump at the divide of the ice dome. The RICE age model is developed using high-resolution methane data tied to the WAIS Divide ice core record, supported with annual layer count, tephra ages and a glacial flow model. Here we show data spanning the past 30 ka and discuss reconstructions of sea surface and air temperature, sea-ice extent, atmospheric circulation patterns and ice-shelf grounding-line retreat. An ensemble of sensitivity modelling experiments is used to determine thresholds for the removal of ice on Roosevelt Island and correlated grounding-line and ice-volume changes of the Ross Ice Shelf and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our data suggest that the delayed onset of the Ross Ice Shelf grounding-line retreat during the deglaciation was driven at least in part by the early onset of deglaciation in West Antarctica as recorded in the WAIS ice core. The Ross Ice Shelf grounding line started to retreat rapidly with the initiation of an ice shelf cavity. RICE TEAM: Bertler N, Conway H, Dahl-Jensen D, Baccolo G, Baisden T, Blunier T, Brightley H, Brook E, Buizert C, Carter L, Ciobanu G, Dadic R, Delmonte B, Dongqi Z, Edwards R, Eling L, Ellis A, Emanuelsson D, Fudge T, Golledge N , Hindmarsh R, Hawley R, Jiao Y, Johnson K, Keller L, Kingslake J, Kipfstuhl S, Kjær H, Korokikth E , Kurbatov A, Lee J, Lowry D, Mayewski P, Naish T, Neff P, Scherer R, Schoeneman S, Severinghaus J, Simonsen M, Steig E, Ulaylottil Venugopal A, Vallelonga P, Waddington E, Winton H

75A2226
Sea ice drives the large-scale Southern Ocean overturning circulation
Violaine Pellichero, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Sunke Schmidtko, Fabien Roquet, Jean-Benoît Charrassin
Corresponding author: Violaine Pellichero
Corresponding author e-mail: violaine.pellichero@locean-ipsl.upmc.fr
In the Southern Ocean, deep waters well up towards the ocean surface under sea ice, where water masses are transformed in the mixed layer and re-injected back in deeper or shallower layers. The role of the Southern Ocean in ventilating global deep waters and redistributing heat and fresh water within the upper ocean is particularly important for the climate as a whole. However, significant uncertainty exists about the processes responsible for the Southern Ocean water mass overturning circulation south of 30° S. Working on elephant-seal-derived data as well as ship-based observations and Argo float data, we have investigated the processes that lead to the under-ice transformation of the upper circumpolar deep water (UCDW) and Antarctic intermediate water (AAIW). Air–sea flux data from several sources and in situ observations are used to describe the diapycnal flux at the ocean surface from one density class to the next, including UCDW and AAIW density ranges. In the sea-ice sector, our results show that surface buoyancy fluxes drive an upwelling of about 6 Sv in the UCDW ranges and a subduction of about 4.5 Sv in the AAIW ranges. The freshwater flux dominates over most of the density ranges, highlighting the role of the sea ice in driving this Southern Ocean branch of the meridional overturning circulation and fresh-water transport. Moreover, the regional distribution of the cross-isopycnal flux is computed in order to identify the regions where the UCDW upwells and AAIW sinks around the Antarctic continent. Our conclusions suggest that changes in regional sea-ice distribution or sea-ice seasonal cycle duration, as currently observed, would widely affect the buoyancy budget of the underlying mixed layer, and impacts large-scale water-mass formation and transformation

75A2272
Paleoclimate earth system modelling of cryosphere–ocean interactions in the Southern Hemisphere
Elizabeth Keller, Nicholas Golledge, Richard Levy
Corresponding author: Elizabeth Keller
Corresponding author e-mail: l.keller@gns.cri.nz
We present paleoclimate model experiments designed to explore ocean–ice interactions in the Southern Hemisphere under warmer-than-present conditions. We examine the changes in ocean circulation and biochemistry associated with the retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with steady-state simulations of Pliocene and Miocene interglacials, and the role of ocean dynamics in the expansion and retreat of WAIS during glacial/interglacial transitions. We use intermediate-complexity earth system models LOVECLIM and the UVic ESCM for initial exploration, with the goal of moving to a full GCM and a high-resolution ocean model to examine more detailed ice–ocean dynamics and processes.

75A2296
Role of tropical teleconnections in changes in the Southern Ocean dynamics and Antarctic sea-ice extent in the ACME Earth System Model
Rahul Sivankutty, Diana Francis, Eayrs Clare, David Holland, Stephen Price
Corresponding author: Rahul Sivankutty
Corresponding author e-mail: rs5521@nyu.edu
Recent studies suggest that changes in the Southern Ocean, particularly the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, can influence the thermal structure of the upper ocean and thus affect sea-ice concentration in the Antarctic region. The poleward shifting of subtropical westerlies can result in changes in ocean circulation pattern. The changes in the Southern Annular Mode, and its linkage to tropical SST variability, prove that tropical teleconnections can play an important role in Antarctic climate variability. Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model – the US Department of Energy’s Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) – which includes coupled representations of all of the components of the physical climate system (atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land ice), we study the tropical linkages to the variability in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. The study validates the model’s ability to capture the observed teleconnection patterns. The mechanisms by which the tropical climate influences the dynamics of the Southern Ocean and thereby Antarctic sea ice variability are highlighted.

75A2308
Glacial Antarctic warm events as captured by RICE ice core
Abhijith UV, Nancy Bertler, Giuseppe Cortese
Corresponding author: Abhijith UV
Corresponding author e-mail: Abhijith.Uv@vuw.ac.nz
The last glacial period in Antarctica has been punctuated by several episodes of warm events, where air temperature rose between 1 and 3°C, which are referred to as Antarctic isotope maxima (AIM). On correlating high-resolution Antarctic and Greenland ice-core records for AIM events, an out-of-phase relationship has been observed between both the hemispheres, with Antarctica warming when Greenland is under a cold phase and Antarctica cooling when Greenland stays in a warm state. This out-of-phase relationship is called the ‘bipolar seesaw’. Possible explanations include oceanic teleconnections via a shift in strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation. A recent comparison between the WAIS Divide and NGRIP records identified a Northern Hemisphere lead of about 218 ± 92 a and 208 ± 96 a for the onset and termination of Dangaard/Oeschger and AIM events, further evidence for an important oceanic role in the interhemispheric energy distribution. Roosevelt Island is a local ice rise at the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. A 764 m deep ice core, the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) core, was obtained over two field seasons in 2011/12 and 2012/13. Due to its proximity to the Ross Sea, one of the major contributors to AABW, the RICE records have the potential to provide new insights into the drivers and consequences during the evolution of AIM events. Here, we will present preliminary data of the major ion record from the RICE ice core covering an age range of 18–60 ka with the main focus of understanding core aspects of AABW during AIM events, including its strength and mode of formation and further to test the bipolar seesaw hypothesis.


75A2377
Subsurface geomorphology and post-Last-Glacial-Maximum deglaciation of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica
Gerhard Kuhn, Johann Philipp Klages, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, James A. Smith, Frank O. Nitsche, Karsten Gohl, Sabine Kasten
Corresponding author: Gerhard Kuhn
Corresponding author e-mail: gerhard.kuhn@awi.de
Subglacial meltwater largely facilitates rapid but nonlinear ice flow beneath concurrent ice streams, and there is widespread evidence for a dynamic subglacial water system beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. It steers and affects the pattern of ice flow and is a direct result of boundary processes acting at the ice sheet bed, i.e. pressure-induced basal melting. Consequently, the occurrence of subglacial meltwater plays an important role in bedrock erosion, subsequent re-deposition, and shaping of the topography of ice-sheet beds. Here we present new geological and geochemical data from sediment cores recovered from the West Antarctic continental shelf in Pine Island Bay. We have interpreted the data as a reliable indicator for deposition in palaeo-subglacial lakes beneath the formerly expanded West Antarctic Ice Sheet, presumably following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Characteristic changes of sedimentary facies and geochemical profiles within these cores taken on RV Polarstern expeditions ANT-XXIII/4 (2006) and ANT-XXVI/3 (2010) support the presence of an active and expanded subglacial lake system in at least five basins that were carved into bedrock during the last glaciations and filled with some meters of post-LGM sediments. These findings have important implications for palaeo ice-sheet dynamics, suggesting the presence of considerable amounts of water lubricating the ice–bed interface, eventually leading to the subglacial deposition of water-saturated subglacial lake sediments and soft tills. Based on our recent findings, we suggest the transition from a subglacial lake to an ocean-influenced environment took place during deglaciation at the transition from glacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 to the early Holocene. We suggest that the ice sheet thinned and the sub-ice lakes successively transformed to sub-ice cavities flushed by tidal currents at this time. Based on bathymetric maps, a glacial isostatic adjustment model, a global sea level curve and age information, we estimate ice thickness for buoyancy at the grounding line, as this grounding line retreated further inland across the rim of the subglacial lake. Our findings may have implications for ice-sheet models, which have to consider the predominantly non-linear effects related to subglacial hydrology


75A2401
IODP Expedition 374: ocean–ice-sheet interactions and West Antarctic Ice Sheet vulnerability
Rob McKay, Laura De Santis, Denise Kulhanek
Corresponding author: Rob McKay
Corresponding author e-mail: robert.mckay@vuw.ac.nz
Observations from the past several decades indicate that the Southern Ocean is warming significantly, while Southern Hemisphere westerly winds have migrated southward and strengthened due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and/or ozone depletion. These changes have been linked to thinning of Antarctic ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers. Results of geologic drilling on Antarctica’s continental margins indicate late Neogene marine-based ice-sheet variability and numerical modeling indicates a fundamental role for oceanic heat in controlling this variability over at least the past 20 million years. While ice-sheet variability has been observed, sedimentologic sequences from the outer continental shelf are still required to evaluate the extent of past ice-sheet variability and the role of oceanic heat flux in controlling ice-sheet mass balance. IODP Expedition 374 is scheduled to be drilled in January 2018 and proposes a latitudinal and depth transect of sixdrill sites from the outer continental shelf and rise in the eastern Ross Sea to resolve the relationship between climatic/oceanic change and West Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution through the Neogene and Quaternary. This location was selected because numerical ice-sheet models indicate that it is highly sensitive to changes in ocean heat flux and sea level. The proposed drilling is designed for optimal data–model integration, which will enable an improved understanding of the sensitivity of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance during warmer-than-present climates (e.g. the early Pliocene and middle Miocene). Additionally, the proposed transect links ice proximal records from the inner Ross Sea continental shelf (e.g. ANDRILL sites) to deep southwest Pacific drilling sites/targets to obtain an ice proximal to far-field view of Neogene climate and Antarctic cryosphere evolution.

75A2402
An update on ice-shelf changes in Northern Greenland
Jérémie Mouginot, Eric Rignot, Bernd Scheuchl, Mathieu Morlighem, Ala Khazendar
Corresponding author: Jeremie Mouginot
Corresponding author e-mail: jmougino@uci.edu
Zachariæ Isstrøm, in northeast Greenland, is retreating and accelerating, most probably because of enhanced melting at its ice-shelf bottom followed by its break-up. Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, its neighbor, is also showing signs of thinning close to its grounding line, as is Petermann Gletscher, located 800 km more to the west. Here, we investigate dynamic and geometrical changes of all the other glaciers located along the northern coast of Greenland, namely Humboldt Gletscher, Steensby Gletscher, Ryder Gletscher, Ostenfeld Gletscher, Marie Sophie Gletscher, Academy Gletscher and Hagen Bræ. Using satellite and airborne-based remote-sensing sensors, we reconstruct the time series of speed, grounding-line position, ice thickness and surface elevation changes since the 80s. We will provide an update of the glacier ice discharges and will discuss any large-scale pattern of enhanced melting of the northern Greenlandic ice shelves . We will conclude with the possibility of actual or future destabilization -or lack thereof- of the glaciers in this sector of Greenland.

75A2445
Rapid melting in the basal zone of a major Greenland outlet glacier
Poul Christoffersen, Tun Jan Young, Bryn Hubbard, Samuel Huckerby Doyle, Alun Hubbard, Marion Bougamont, Coen Hofstede, Keith Nicholls
Corresponding author: Poul Christoffersen
Corresponding author e-mail: pc350@cam.ac.uk
The Greenland ice sheet is losing mass and raising sea levels by 1 mm a–1. While melting of the ice sheet explains half of the net annual loss, the other half is caused by dynamic processes operating in the catchments of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. These processes are poorly understood because they are confined to the basal zone, which is often inaccessible. The Subglacial Access and Fast Ice Research Experiment (SAFIRE) is addressing this paucity of data by drilling to the bed of Store Glacier, the second-largest outlet glacier in West Greenland in terms of flux. Seven 600-m-deep boreholes were drilled to the base of the glacier, about 30 km inland from the calving terminus, at a location where ice flows at a rate of 700 m a–1. Sensors installed at the bed and within ice show that the glacier overrides a warm bed consisting of soft, water-saturated sediment. Basal motion comprised a combination of intense deformation of temperature basal ice as well as sliding. High basal water pressure with diurnal variations showed that water produced on the surface is transported subglacially in a distributed basal water system, which nevertheless was sufficiently efficient to cause rapid lowering of the water level in all seven boreholes, once the system was intercepted. To evaluate the quantify of heat transported from surface to bed, we measured rates of basal melting with a phase-sensitive, frequency-modulated continuous wave (FMCW) radar system installed autonomously at the borehole drill site. The radar captured internal and basal reflector ranges at high spatial (millimetre) and temporal (hourly) resolutions, producing a unique time series of ice deformation and basal melting, coincident with englacial and subglacial borehole measurements. Here, we show that the rate of basal melting was 3 m a–1 in winter, when heat at the bed is provided mainly by basal friction, and that it increases to 20 m a–1 in summer, when heat is also transported to the bed from the surface. Our measurements show that the flow of outlet glaciers from the Greenland Ice Sheet is influenced not only by their interaction with the ocean but equally by their interaction with the atmosphere, making them potentially more sensitive to climate change than thought so far.


75A2456
Future fate of the polar ice sheets and implications for global coastlines
Rob DeConto
Corresponding author: Rob DeConto
Corresponding author e-mail: deconto@geo.umass.edu
New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse-gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500 m below sea level. Here, we will explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean, using models that include previously underappreciated physical processes, including surface meltwater-driven hydrofracturing and structural failure of ice cliffs. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat will also be discussed, as will the potential for policy and aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise.


27
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 21, 2017, 10:26:41 PM »
The linked article is entitled: “It’s becoming increasingly clear that Jared Kushner is part of Trump’s Russia problem”, which makes the idea that Trump may soon issue pardons for both Flynn, and Kushner, all the more believable.

https://www.vox.com/2017/5/20/15668162/kushner-trump-russia-corruption

Extract: “And the White House’s reaction to the appointment of Robert Mueller as a special counsel in the Russia inquiry, including a possible attempt to use ethics rules to limit the scope of his investigation, shows that somebody in the White House is deeply worried about what might happen if Kushner were included in the probe.

If Kushner has, or is, a Russia problem, that means that the current investigations go to the beating family heart of the Trump White House. That could set up a very, very nasty fight indeed.”

28
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 21, 2017, 10:18:20 PM »
With Preibus coming home early....this may be an indication that Mueller's time as Special Prosecutor may be short...and I am talking about days or weeks.  I am sure that first thing on Reince's plate will be to huddle with Session's and make something up to fire Mueller.  Mueller hit the ground running...and we don't know what he is having subpeoned (tax returns, Trump corporate records, etc).

Expect Donnie to "hit hard" with anything he can.  Those in Trump Camp have already done more than enough to land them in prison.  Donnie HAS to get FBI investigation shut down....and QUICKLY.


The linked article is entitled: “Reuters: White House looking for ways to undermine Mueller’s credibility as special counsel”, & it indicates that even if Sessions, or Trump, don't fire Mueller (as it could look like obstruction of justice); Trump could start pardoning anyone of his cronies that Mueller is investigating.  Plus, if no one could be charged because of the pardons, and if Mueller looks like his was then going to issue a politically damaging report anyway, Trump could just fire him before Mueller released such a report.

http://hotair.com/archives/2017/05/20/reuters-white-house-looking-ways-undermine-muellers-credibility-special-counsel/

Extract: “The president’s power to pardon is plenary. It would look unbelievably shady for Trump to use one of his kingliest prerogatives as head of the executive branch to give all of his cronies “get out of jail free” cards, especially while an investigation’s ongoing and the facts haven’t yet come to light, but there’s really no question that it would be legal. Trump would be accused of an abuse of power in using pardons to shut down the probe — a lawful form of obstruction of justice, essentially, for the president’s exclusive enjoyment — but if he cared about public perceptions, he wouldn’t have fired Comey. He’d probably calculate that a few weeks of bad press for pardoning Flynn, Kushner, et al. is worth it in order to be done with Russiagate once and for all. Voters will forget about it in time. And his base, as always, will back him to the hilt. It’s coming. The only question is when.”

29
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:59:32 PM »
The linked article is entitled: “Trump appoints hate group figures to voter fraud commission”.  To me the voter suppression implications of this action illustrates how Trump is working to make himself 'bulletproof' from GOP support for impeachment proceedings (as impeachment is a political act):

http://www.salon.com/2017/05/21/trump-appoints-hate-group-figures-to-voter-fraud-commission_partner/

Extract: “Trump’s action was viewed by civil rights groups as a vehicle to suppress the votes of minorities and the poor.”

30
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: May 21, 2017, 08:33:57 PM »
While the vast majority of my posts are intended to make people more aware that consensus science's portrayal of climate change risk err considerably on the side of least drama; nevertheless, I still suspect that the majority of readers cannot see the forest from all of these damned trees in the way.  Therefore, I have decided to pick on the recent linked first article entitled: "SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag", to illustrate how such a consensus based 'scientific' call to action can greatly underplay the risks associated with regard to dynamical climate sensitivity as illustrated by the second linked reference associated with the influences that the IPO as short-term GMSTA.  The first attached image is from the first reference & indicates that due to a 30-year lag we will not reach 2C warming until 2035 + 30 – 2065.  However, the second & third images, from the second reference, indicate respectively that we appear to have entered a warm IPO period (which may well last until ~2035); which indicates that we could reach +1.8C by 2034 (when considering the confidence range).

https://www.skepticalscience.com/SkS_Analogy_04_Ocean_Time_Lag.html

Extract: "Greenhouse gases (GHG) determine amount of warming, but oceans delay the warming.

This figure therefore shows the temperature anomaly starting in 1970, the year when the temperature increase due to greenhouse gases began to emerge from the background noise. This figure indicates 3 things: (1) the time lag between emitting greenhouse gases and when we see the principle effect is about 30 years, due mostly to the time required to heat the oceans, (2) the rate of temperature increase predicted by a climate sensitivity of 3°C tracks well with the observed rate of temperature increase, and (3) we have already locked in more than 1.5°C warming. As of 2017 we have reached 406 ppm CO2. At the current increase of 2 ppm CO2/yr., this implies that we will reach 440 ppm and lock in 2°C warming by 2035 … if we don’t act now."

The second reference is:

Henley, B. J and King, A. D. (2017) Trajectories toward the 1.5C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2017GL073480

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073480/abstract

Abstract: "Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists."

Plain Language Summary
Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In this study, we find that in the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, the midpoint of the spread of temperature projections exceeds the 1.5°C target before 2029, based on temperatures relative to 1850–1900. We find that the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a slow-moving natural oscillation in the climate system, will regulate the rate at which global temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative phase, however, the projections are centered on reaching the target around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent climate model predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.


See also the associated following article entitled: "Pacific Ocean shift could see 1.5C limit breached within a decade":

https://www.carbonbrief.org/pacific-ocean-shift-could-see-1point5-limit-breached-within-decade

31
The linked article is entitled: "How Rollbacks at Scott Pruitt’s E.P.A. Are a Boon to Oil and Gas", & it indicates that some aggressive companies are already increasing fossil fuel production due to the Trump Administration's changes in E.P.A. requirements

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/business/energy-environment/devon-energy.html?_r=0

Extract: "“In any regulated industry, there are companies that are more aggressive than others in pushing back at every turn and trying to stop the policy,” she said. “Devon was one of those.”"

32
The linked reference updates/corrects a 2012 report that prematurely indicated that global warming from 2000 to 2010 was leading to a decrease in effective cloud height (which would indicate a negative feedback mechanism).  The 2017 report corrects an earlier err associated with glint that reduced the magnitude of the apparent negative feedback from 2000 to 2010, and then reported that the data from 2010 to 2015 indicated that the cloud height was increasing with global warming indicating a positive feedback mechanism.  The report ESLD to conclude that it is too early to say whether changes in cloud height results in a net positive or negative feedback.  However, the researchers fail to adjust for changes in IPO over the 2000 to 2015 period, & I believe that if they had they would likely find a net positive feedback with global warming.

Roger Davies et al. (2017), "Cloud heights measured by MISR from 2000 to 2015", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1002/2017JD026456

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD026456/abstract

Abstract: "Davies and Molloy (2012) reported a decrease in the global effective cloud height over the first 10 years of Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) measurements on the Terra satellite. We have reexamined their time series for possible artefacts that might especially affect the initial portion of the record when the heights appeared anomalously high. While variations in sampling were shown to be inconsequential, an artefact due to the change in equator crossing time that affected the first 2 years was discovered, and this has now been corrected. That correction, together with the extension of the time series by five more years, yields no significant overall trend in global heights during the first 15 years of Terra operation. The time series is dominated by large interannual fluctuations associated with La Niña events that mask any overall trend on a global scale. On a regional basis, the cloud heights showed significant interannual variations of much larger amplitude, sometimes with fairly direct cancellation between regions. There were unexplained differences between the two hemispheres in the timing of height anomalies. These differences persisted over a large range of extratropical latitudes, suggestive of teleconnections. Within the tropics, there were very strong changes associated with the Central Pacific and Indonesian Maritime Continent regions that oscillated out of phase with each other, with interannual amplitudes that exceeded 1 km."

33
The linked reference studies a subglacial draining event beneath Thwaites Glacier from June 2013 to January 2014:

Smith et. al. (2017), "Connected subglacial lake drainage beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica", The Cryosphere, 11, 451–467, doi:10.5194/tc-11-451-2017

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/451/2017/tc-11-451-2017.pdf

Abstract. We present conventional and swath altimetry data from CryoSat-2, revealing a system of subglacial lakes that drained between June 2013 and January 2014 under the central part of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica (TWG). Much of the drainage happened in less than 6 months, with an apparent connection between three lakes spanning more than 130 km. Hydro-potential analysis of the glacier bed shows a large number of small closed basins that should trap water produced by subglacial melt, although the observed largescale motion of water suggests that water can sometimes locally move against the apparent potential gradient, at least during lake-drainage events. This shows that there are important limitations in the ability of hydro-potential maps to predict subglacial water flow. An interpretation based on a map of the melt rate suggests that lake drainages of this type should take place every 20–80 years, depending on the connectivity of the water flow at the bed. Although we observed an acceleration in the downstream part of TWG immediately before the start of the lake drainage, there is no clear connection between the drainage and any speed change of the glacier."

34
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 21, 2017, 03:42:53 AM »
The article entitled: "White House looking at using ethics rule to weaken special investigation: Sources", makes the case that the WH is already working to undermine Mueller's credibility:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/20/white-house-looking-at-using-ethics-rule-to-weaken-special-investigation-sources.html

Extract: "The White House did not respond to a request for comment on whether it is reviewing the ethics rule in order to undermine Mueller's credibility.

Mueller's former colleagues at WilmerHale, James Quarles and Aaron Zebley, are expected to join his investigation, according to a spokeswoman for the law firm. Neither Quarles nor Zebley represented Kushner or Manafort.

Mueller will now lead the ongoing Federal Bureau of Investigation probe into Trump's associates and senior Russian officials.

Unlike Kenneth Starr, the independent counsel appointed by a three-judge panel to investigate Bill and Hillary Clinton's real estate holdings in the 1990s, Mueller depends on the Justice Department for funding and he reports to Rosenstein, who was appointed by Trump.

When he announced Mueller's appointment this week, Rosenstein said Mueller will have "all appropriate resources to conduct a thorough and complete investigation.""

35
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: May 21, 2017, 03:26:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -4.8:

36
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: May 21, 2017, 03:23:10 AM »
The linked article entitled: "Can Quantum Mechanics Save the Cosmic Multiverse?", applies lessons from the Many-Worlds Interpretation to gain insight that the multiverse can be considered as a "probability space" and that time is an "emergent concept"; which is in keeping with the HIOTTOE interpretation of rupa/material phenomena (see also the caveats in Reply #119).

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-quantum-mechanics-save-the-cosmic-multiverse/

Extract: "A surprising connection between cosmology and quantum mechanics could unveil the secrets of space and time

37
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Tectonics
« on: May 21, 2017, 01:56:37 AM »
The linked reference examines the abrupt collapse of the Last Weichselian Icelandic ice sheet to better understand the risk for future collapses of existing marine glaciers / ice sheets.  They find that the geothermal conditions beneath such ice sheets can control the rate of ice mass loss particularly during phases of rapid retreat (see the post just before this one: #78):

Henry Patton, Alun Hubbard, Tom Bradwell, Anders Schomacker. The configuration, sensitivity and rapid retreat of the Late Weichselian Icelandic ice sheet. Earth-Science Reviews, 2017; 166: 223 DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.02.001

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001282521630246X

Abstract: “The fragmentary glacial-geological record across the Icelandic continental shelf has hampered reconstruction of the volume, extent and chronology of the Late Weichselian ice sheet particularly in key offshore zones. Marine geophysical data collected over the last two decades reveal that the ice sheet likely attained a continental shelf-break position in all sectors during the Last Glacial Maximum, though its precise timing and configuration remains largely unknown. Within this context, we review the available empirical evidence and use a well-constrained three-dimensional thermomechanical model to investigate the drivers of an extensive Late Weichselian Icelandic ice-sheet, its sensitivity to environmental forcing, and phases of deglaciation. Our reconstruction attains the continental shelf break across all sectors with a total ice volume of 5.96 × 105 km3 with high precipitation rates being critical to forcing extensive ice sheet flow offshore. Due to its location astride an active mantle plume, a relatively fast and dynamic ice sheet with a low aspect ratio is maintained. Our results reveal that once initial ice-sheet retreat was triggered through climate warming at 21.8 ka BP, marine deglaciation was rapid and accomplished in all sectors within c. 5 ka at a mean rate of 71 Gt of mass loss per year. This rate of ice wastage is comparable to contemporary rates observed for the West Antarctic ice sheet. The ice sheet subsequently stabilised on shallow pinning points across the near shelf for two millennia, but abrupt atmospheric warming during the Bølling Interstadial forced a second, dramatic collapse of the ice sheet onshore with a net wastage of 221 Gt a−1 over 750 years, analogous to contemporary Greenland rates of mass loss. Geothermal conditions impart a significant control on the ice sheet's transient response, particularly during phases of rapid retreat. Insights from this study suggests that large sectors of contemporary ice sheets overlying geothermally active regions, such as Siple Coast, Antarctica, and NE Greenland, have the potential to experience rapid phases of mass loss and deglaciation once initial retreat is initiated.”

See also:
 https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170424093950.htm


Extract: “"We found that, at certain times, the Icelandic ice sheet retreated at an exceptionally fast rate -- more than double the present-day rate of ice loss from the much larger West Antarctic ice sheet -- causing global sea level to rise significantly."

38
The linked reference examines the abrupt collapse of the Last Weichselian Icelandic ice sheet to better understand the risk for future collapses of existing marine glaciers / ice sheets.  They find that the geothermal conditions beneath such ice sheets can control the rate of ice mass loss particularly during phases of rapid retreat (& I note that the lithosphere beneath the Thwaites Glacier is exceptionally thin):

Henry Patton, Alun Hubbard, Tom Bradwell, Anders Schomacker. The configuration, sensitivity and rapid retreat of the Late Weichselian Icelandic ice sheet. Earth-Science Reviews, 2017; 166: 223 DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.02.001

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001282521630246X

Abstract: “The fragmentary glacial-geological record across the Icelandic continental shelf has hampered reconstruction of the volume, extent and chronology of the Late Weichselian ice sheet particularly in key offshore zones. Marine geophysical data collected over the last two decades reveal that the ice sheet likely attained a continental shelf-break position in all sectors during the Last Glacial Maximum, though its precise timing and configuration remains largely unknown. Within this context, we review the available empirical evidence and use a well-constrained three-dimensional thermomechanical model to investigate the drivers of an extensive Late Weichselian Icelandic ice-sheet, its sensitivity to environmental forcing, and phases of deglaciation. Our reconstruction attains the continental shelf break across all sectors with a total ice volume of 5.96 × 105 km3 with high precipitation rates being critical to forcing extensive ice sheet flow offshore. Due to its location astride an active mantle plume, a relatively fast and dynamic ice sheet with a low aspect ratio is maintained. Our results reveal that once initial ice-sheet retreat was triggered through climate warming at 21.8 ka BP, marine deglaciation was rapid and accomplished in all sectors within c. 5 ka at a mean rate of 71 Gt of mass loss per year. This rate of ice wastage is comparable to contemporary rates observed for the West Antarctic ice sheet. The ice sheet subsequently stabilised on shallow pinning points across the near shelf for two millennia, but abrupt atmospheric warming during the Bølling Interstadial forced a second, dramatic collapse of the ice sheet onshore with a net wastage of 221 Gt a−1 over 750 years, analogous to contemporary Greenland rates of mass loss. Geothermal conditions impart a significant control on the ice sheet's transient response, particularly during phases of rapid retreat. Insights from this study suggests that large sectors of contemporary ice sheets overlying geothermally active regions, such as Siple Coast, Antarctica, and NE Greenland, have the potential to experience rapid phases of mass loss and deglaciation once initial retreat is initiated.”

See also:
 https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170424093950.htm


Extract: “"We found that, at certain times, the Icelandic ice sheet retreated at an exceptionally fast rate -- more than double the present-day rate of ice loss from the much larger West Antarctic ice sheet -- causing global sea level to rise significantly."

39
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 20, 2017, 08:06:12 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Donald Trump Committed Another Impeachable Offense This Week", and it makes it clear that as impeachment is a political process and as the Congressional GOP leadership is lacking in the moral compass department, that it is up to the US voters to step-up and offer resistance to this criminal administration:

https://www.thenation.com/article/donald-trump-committed-another-impeachable-offense-this-week/

Extract: "On Wednesday, US forces carried out more unauthorized airstrikes on pro-government forces in Syria. Though the Constitution explicitly states that the legislative branch, not the executive, has the power to initiate new military actions, Trump has steered the United States deeper into the Syrian conflict.

Of course, impeachment is a political process rather than a legal one. It requires a level of respect for the Constitution that is rarely displayed by leaders of the House or the Senate—especially ones like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. But political processes evolve when popular pressure rises—and it is worth noting that public support for impeachment is higher among voters than on Capitol Hill."

40
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 20, 2017, 06:41:15 PM »
Since impeachment is a political process, here is an article entitled: “Analysis | 5 questions Congress needs to answer about Trump and Russia”, which discusses political issues that Congress can address in order to help America face this matter:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/analysis-5-questions-congress-needs-to-answer-about-trump-and-russia/ar-BBBkgbN

Extract: “Believe it or not, Congress can help contextualize this. Its main function is to oversee the federal government, which means lawmakers are in a position to get clarity from the executive branch that can help the rest of us better understand what's really happening to the Trump administration right now. Here are five questions Congress can — and should — answer about Trump and Russia:”

41
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 20, 2017, 05:55:17 PM »
The linked article is entitled: “Impeachment: it’s political”.  It indicates that unless the FBI can produce clear & convincing evidence of major wrong doing on Trump's part, he is bulletproof from impeachment, because impeachment is a political process.  Hopefully, the FBI can at least get Trump on obstruction of justice charges.


http://www.salon.com/2017/05/20/impeachment-it-is-political_partner/


Extract: “Republicans have a majority in the House and the Senate. Does that essentially make Trump bulletproof? More or less.

Although it is possible that Republican members of Congress could join with Democrats in calling for Trump’s removal, as we saw happen in the run-up to Nixon’s resignation over the Watergate scandal, today’s polarized political environment makes such an occurrence unlikely absent clear and convincing evidence of major wrongdoing. While Nixon’s impeachment was likely inevitable, with Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress in 1974, today Republican defections from Trump would be essential to any movement toward impeachment.”

42
Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: May 20, 2017, 05:59:22 AM »

We''ll be high at 420
[/quote]

Speak for yourself, I'm getting high right now!

Terry
[/quote]

Which makes me wonder just how high you are when you normally post :o

43
Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: May 20, 2017, 05:38:38 AM »
The linked article is entitled: “Decoding Antarctica's response to a warming world”.  Hold your breath.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-39975709

Extract: “In the iceberg-infested waters of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), it obtained the very first cores to be drilled from just in front of some of the mightiest glaciers on Earth. 

Chief among these are Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier, colossal streams of ice that drain the White Continent and which are now spilling mass into the ocean at an alarming rate. 

There's concern that deep, warm water is undercutting the glaciers, possibly tipping them into an unstoppable retreat. And that has global implications for significant sea-level rise. 
...
The goal was to retrieve seafloor sediments that would reveal the behaviour of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) in previous warm phases. To read the future in the past. 

"If you find ice-rafted debris (stones dropped by icebergs), for example, you can be sure there was ice on land and that the ice had advanced to the coast," explained Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). 

"But also new developments - especially what's known as geochemical provenance - have emerged in the last 10 years that mean it's even possible now to compare this material with rocks on land to pin down the actual sources in the hinterland." 

44
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 20, 2017, 03:56:21 AM »
Apparently, having Mueller on the job will not prevent Comey from testifying in public before the Senate Intelligence Committee:

http://www.salon.com/2017/05/19/james-comey-to-testify-in-public-session/

Extract: "Comey’s planned appearance in an open session of the Senate Intel Committee ensures his testimony will be public.
...
The joint press release issued by Senators Burr and Warner stated that the open hearing would be scheduled “after Memorial Day.”"

45
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: May 20, 2017, 03:26:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.9:

46
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 20, 2017, 02:00:50 AM »
Here are words from the DOJ on whether Trump's actions could be taken as obstruction of justice:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/19/trump-officials-he-looks-more-and-more-like-a-complete-moron

Extract: "Asked whether those comments could be construed as intent to interfere in the FBI’s investigation, a Justice Department official told The Daily Beast, “absolutely.”"

47
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: May 20, 2017, 01:15:38 AM »
Per the linked reference hopefully scientists will keep working to apply the WGAN approach (see Reply #331) to modeling climate change & strange attractors:


Yoann Robin , Pascal Yiou and Philippe Naveau (2017), “Detecting Changes in Forced Climate Attractors with Wasserstein Distance”, Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., doi:10.5194/npg-2017-5


http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys-discuss.net/npg-2017-5/npg-2017-5.pdf'



Abstract. The climate system can been described by a dynamical system and its associated attractor. The dynamics of this attractor depends on the external forcings that influence the climate. Such forcings can affect the mean values or variances, but regions of the attractor that are seldom visited can also be affected. It is an important challenge to measure how the climate attractor responds to different forcings. Currently, the Euclidean distance or similar measures like the Mahalanobis distance have been favoured to measure discrepancies between two climatic situations. Those distances do not have a natural building mechanism to take into account the attractor dynamics. In this paper, we argue that a Wasserstein distance, stemming from optimal transport theory, offers an efficient and practical way to discriminate between dynamical systems. After treating a toy example, we explore how the Wasserstein distance can be applied and interpreted to detect non-autonomous dynamics from a Lorenz system driven by seasonal cycles and a warming trend.

48
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 20, 2017, 12:22:19 AM »
In today's news:

1) Trump tells Russians that firing "nut job" Comey relieved him of the pressure he felt from being probed.



Further to your post, the linked article is entitled: “Trump: Firing 'nut job' FBI chief 'eased pressure”.  It seems to me that the Congressional GOP leadership needs to grow a spine, can call this obstruction of justice.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39983257


Extract: “Donald Trump reportedly told his Russian guests that firing Mr Comey had relieved the "great pressure" his administration was under because of the Russia investigation.”

49
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 19, 2017, 10:33:07 PM »

Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton were both acquitted on all charges.


That would be Andrew Johnson, not Andrew Jackson:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/presidential-impeachment-usa-often-has-happened/

50
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 19, 2017, 06:08:51 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "House Republicans are worried more taped conversations will leak".

http://www.salon.com/2017/05/19/house-republicans-are-worried-more-taped-conversations-will-leak/

Extract: "A new report indicates that House Republican leaders are worried more secretly recorded conversations will leak to the press.

On Wednesday descriptions of a taped conversation among House Republican leaders after meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman leaked, due to reporting by The Washington Post. The most notable moment from the conversation was when House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California joked that “there’s two people I think Putin pays: [GOP Rep. Dana] Rohrabacher and Trump.” As people laughed at his comment, McCarthy emphasized “Swear to God!”

House Speaker Paul Ryan can then be heard ending the conversation and forcing the Republicans who heard McCarthy’s remark to swear to their secrecy. “No leaks. This is how we know we’re a real family here,” Ryan told the Republicans."

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