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Messages - AbruptSLR

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1
An image of Trump's disappearing advisers is worth a thousand words:

2
CMIP5 models underestimate the emissions of geologic CH4 produced over millions of years and stored in reservoirs beneath terrestrial permafrost, with continued warming:

Katrin Kohnert, Andrei Serafimovich, Stefan Metzger, Jörg Hartmann, Torsten Sachs. Strong geologic methane emissions from discontinuous terrestrial permafrost in the Mackenzie Delta, Canada. Scientific Reports, 2017; 7 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-05783-2

http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-05783-2

Abstract: "Arctic permafrost caps vast amounts of old, geologic methane (CH4) in subsurface reservoirs. Thawing permafrost opens pathways for this CH4 to migrate to the surface. However, the occurrence of geologic emissions and their contribution to the CH4 budget in addition to recent, biogenic CH4 is uncertain. Here we present a high-resolution (100 m × 100 m) regional (10,000 km²) CH4 flux map of the Mackenzie Delta, Canada, based on airborne CH4 flux data from July 2012 and 2013. We identify strong, likely geologic emissions solely where the permafrost is discontinuous. These peaks are 13 times larger than typical biogenic emissions. Whereas microbial CH4 production largely depends on recent air and soil temperature, geologic CH4 was produced over millions of years and can be released year-round provided open pathways exist. Therefore, even though they only occur on about 1% of the area, geologic hotspots contribute 17% to the annual CH4 emission estimate of our study area. We suggest that this share may increase if ongoing permafrost thaw opens new pathways. We conclude that, due to permafrost thaw, hydrocarbon-rich areas, prevalent in the Arctic, may see increased emission of geologic CH4 in the future, in addition to enhanced microbial CH4 production."

See also the associate article entitled: "Thawing permafrost releases old greenhouse gas"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170719084810.htm

Extract: "The thawing permafrost soils in the Arctic regions might contribute to the greenhouse effect in two respects: on the one hand rising temperatures lead to higher microbial methane production close to the surface. On the other hand thawing subsurface opens increasingly pathways for old, geologic methane.

The conclusion of the authors: The warming climate triggers not only the natural production of biogenic methane, it can also lead to stronger emissions of fossil gas. This contributes significantly to the permafrost-carbon-climate feedback. Kohnert: "Therefore permafrost areas vulnerable to thawing warrant much more attention.""

3
As just one of many many examples of what could go wrong with the implementation of solar geoengineering circa 2040, the first linked article discusses how the "8.2 ka event" (see below) had a major impact on weather around the world including in California; and if a synergistic series of collapses of key marine glaciers in both Greenland and West Antarctica were to occur in the say timeframe; then the interaction between the geoengineering and the ice-climate feedback mechanism would likely produce extreme weather around the world for decades:

Title: "Wet and stormy weather lashed California coast... 8,200 years ago".

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170620093206.htm

Extract: "The Golden State's 150-year stretch of unusually wet weather appears to have been marked by particularly intense winter storms and coincides with a climate anomaly in Greenland ice cores first detected in 1997. Before this "8.2 ka event" was discovered scientists thought the world's climate had been unusually stable during the Holocene, the geological epoch that covers the last 11,700 years of Earth's history.

Since then researchers have associated the distinctive, 3.3-degree Celsius temperature dip in the Greenland ice cores with a catastrophic event: The drainage of two giant glacial lakes (Lake Ojibway and Lake Agassiz) located in northeastern North America caused by the collapse of massive ice sheet that covered much of the continent during the last ice age. In short order, the two lakes dumped enough melt water into the North Atlantic to disrupt the world's oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns and raise the sea level by somewhere between two to 10 feet. The tremendous freshwater flood has been associated with an extended cold snap in Europe, increased drought in Africa, weakened monsoons in Asia and strengthened monsoons in South America.


Climatologists are particularly interested in this prehistoric event because it can provide insight into what would happen if global warming reaches a point where glaciers in Greenland and other parts of the globe melt rapidly enough to dump large amounts of fresh water into the ocean. In 2003, for example, the Office of Net Assessment at the U.S. Department of Defense produced a study of prospective climate change specifically based on this event."

Also see:

Jessica L. Oster, Warren D. Sharp, Aaron K. Covey, Jansen Gibson, Bruce Rogers, Hari Mix. Climate response to the 8.2 ka event in coastal California. Scientific Reports, 2017; 7 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-04215-5

&

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/apr/14/new-study-shows-worrisome-signs-for-greenland-ice

4
The linked reference provides evidence that paleo subglacial lakes contributed to the abrupt collapse of the Pine Island Bay marine glacier about 11 kya.  The researchers recommend that models for other modern-day Antarctic marine glaciers (say PIG and Thwaites) should be recalibrated to better account for the influence of subglacial lakes:

Title: "Geoscientific evidence for subglacial lakes"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170601082228.htm

Extract: "During expeditions to the Amundsen Sea with the Research Icebreaker Polarstern in 2006 and 2010, AWI researchers and their international colleagues collected sediment cores that they now confirm are from subglacial lakes. "The cores, which are up to ten metres long, were collected at a water depth of 750 metres. The lake sediments are currently buried under a four-metre thick layer of marine sediment on the seafloor," Kuhn reports. They were retrieved from valleys on the ocean floor that were situated under the Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Earth's distant past. "We have now verified that, during the last glacial period, there were also subglacial lakes under a massively thick ice sheet in Pine Island Bay in the southern Amundsen Sea.

Satellite-monitoring shows that the movement of water from one lake to another can cause glaciers draining the Antarctic Ice Sheet to move more quickly. "This aspect needs to be taken into account in models designed to make predictions on the future behaviour and dynamics of ice masses, and with them, the degree to which the sea level will rise," explains AWI marine geologist Kuhn. According to a second study, which Kuhn contributed to and was published in Nature Communications on 17 March 2017, he added: "We have every reason to believe that there are more subglacial lakes in the Antarctic -- and more so in the last glacial period -- than has been previously assumed. In addition, icecaps like those on the sub-Antarctic island South Georgia and ice sheets reacted much more sensitively and rapidly to climate changes than previously assumed.""

See also:

1.   Gerhard Kuhn, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Sabine Kasten, James A. Smith, Frank O. Nitsche, Thomas Frederichs, Steffen Wiers, Werner Ehrmann, Johann P. Klages, José M. Mogollón. Evidence for a palaeo-subglacial lake on the Antarctic continental shelf. Nature Communications, 2017; 8: 15591 DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS15591

2.   Alastair G. C. Graham, Gerhard Kuhn, Ove Meisel, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Dominic A. Hodgson, Werner Ehrmann, Lukas Wacker, Paul Wintersteller, Christian dos Santos Ferreira, Miriam Römer, Duanne White, Gerhard Bohrmann. Major advance of South Georgia glaciers during the Antarctic Cold Reversal following extensive sub-Antarctic glaciation. Nature Communications, 2017; 8: 14798 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14798

5
Science / Re: Early Anthropocene
« on: Today at 06:42:57 PM »
The linked reference indicates that evidence for an early Anthropocene date takes many different forms, including increase sedimentation in the Dead Sea:

Title: "Earliest human-made climate change took place 11,500 years ago"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170605110059.htm

Extract: "A new Tel Aviv University study has uncovered the earliest known geological indications of humanmade climate change from 11,500 years ago. Within a core sample retrieved from the Dead Sea, researchers discovered basin-wide erosion rates dramatically incompatible with known tectonic and climatic regimes of the period recorded."

See also:

Yin Lu, Nicolas Waldmann, Dani Nadel, Shmuel Marco. Increased sedimentation following the Neolithic Revolution in the Southern Levant. Global and Planetary Change, 2017; 152: 199 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.04.003

&

https://www.sciencedaily.com/news/fossils_ruins/early_climate/

6
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: Today at 05:46:51 PM »
I provide the following links as a follow-on to Replies #132 &133; and while I applaud the general goal of directly coupling large-scale models of human activity with a complex Earth Systems model to produce an integrated Earth System Model, iESM; nevertheless, below I elaborate on some of my concerns that I began to express in Reply #133:

1. In Reply #133 I expressed concerns about the strong likelihood of a failure of leadership under a Rick Perry led DOE for the ACME iESM.  In that Reply, I expressed strong concerns that the effectiveness of BECCS would be oversold, and here I also say that other geoengineering solutions (particularly solar dimming and cloud manipulation) are equally likely to be oversold.

2. I doubt that ACME version 2 (with iESM) will adequately represent the true nonlinear nature of ECS this century and thus will likely underestimate future temperatures.  Additionally, I suspect that recent research findings indicating high ECS values in paleo times will either be discounted and/or misinterpreted.

3. I doubt the likely coming unmaskings of numerous factors that have been masking true climate sensitivity in the observed record will be modeled correctly.

4. I doubt that the modeling of human activities will represent reality.

Title: "Titan simulations show importance of close two-way coupling between human and Earth systems"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170718131042.htm

Extract: "By using supercomputers such as the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility's Titan, a large multidisciplinary team of scientists developed a new integrated climate model designed to reduce uncertainties in future climate predictions as it bridges Earth systems with energy and economic models and large-scale human impact data.

To inform its Earth system models, the climate modeling community has a long history of using integrated assessment models -- frameworks for describing humanity's impact on Earth, including the source of global greenhouse gases, land use and land cover change, and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change.

Until now, researchers had not been able to directly couple large-scale human activity with an Earth system model. In fact, the novel iESM could mark a new era of complex and comprehensive modeling that reduces uncertainty by incorporating immediate feedbacks to socioeconomic variables for more consistent predictions.

The development of iESM started before the ACME initiative when a multilaboratory team aimed to add new human dimensions -- such as how people affect the planet to produce and consume energy -- to Earth system models. The model -- now a part of the ACME human dimensions component -- is being merged with ACME in preparation for ACME version 2."

See also:

https://github.com/ACME-Climate/iESM

&

http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/iesm/

7
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: Today at 03:22:51 PM »
The linked article provides a nice summary of what has been happening with Canada's wildfires over the past week and a half:

Title: "Canada's forests are on fire, and the smoke is so thick it's breaking records"

http://mashable.com/2017/08/17/canada-is-on-fire-smoke-record-arctic/?utm_cid=hp-r-1#40cC5rxJkqq7

Extract: "Forests in Canada are ablaze, with 2.2 million acres going up in flames so far this year in British Columbia alone. These fires, and others in the Yukon and Northwest Territories, have been belching smoke into the air, in some cases up to 8 miles high."

8
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 03:28:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:

9
According to Bannon, when he gets to Breitbart he will be attacking "globalists" both inside and outside the White House in order to 'help' Trump by helping to destroy both establishment Republicans and Democrats:

Title: "Bannon Says He's `Going to War for Trump' After White House Exit"

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bannon-says-hes-going-to-war-for-trump-after-white-house-exit/ar-AAqj5k2?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "“If there’s any confusion out there, let me clear it up: I’m leaving the White House and going to war for Trump against his opponents -- on Capitol Hill, in the media, and in corporate America,” Bannon said Friday in an interview with Bloomberg News hours after his departure was announced."

10
Now that we know that Bannon will be returning to Breitbart, the linked Salon article gives us some idea of his plan to rebrand the alt-right movement as a "… thinking man's Nazi movement":

Title: "Welcome to the Breitbart era: Steve Bannon’s former site is the new monarch of right-wing media"

http://www.salon.com/2017/08/18/welcome-to-the-breitbart-era-steve-bannons-former-site-is-the-new-monarch-of-right-wing-media/

Extract: "When Bannon was the publisher of Breitbart News he oversaw the publication of the manifesto for what Taibbi describes as the” snooty, college-based wing of the racialist right Bannon leads … the thinking man’s Nazi movement” called  “The Establishment Conservative’s Guide to the Alt-Right.” Bannon knows which side his swastika is buttered on. Insulting the “low-IQ thugs” of the neo-fascist right may best be seen as his own version of Bill Clinton’s Sistah Souljah moment."

11
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: August 18, 2017, 11:49:13 PM »
Scribbler discusses present (and near present) SLR risks due to contributions from Antarctica and Greenland over the coming 1 to multiple decades.  While generally presenting a reasonable picture, this article ESLD with regards to at least:

- Scribbler cites NOAA's 2016 490 ppm CO₂-eq value without correcting for the GWP100 of methane; which had he done so would give a value of 521 ppm.

- Scribbler does not discuss the bi-polar seesaw mechanism that can accelerate marine glacial ice mass loss (particularly in the WAIS) on a decadal timeframe but which is poorly represented in the CMIP5 projections.

- Scribbler does not cite the recent research that indicates that since 1750 global warming has sequestered substantial amount of heat content in the Southern Ocean at a water depth conducive for accelerating ice mass loss from marine glaciers (particularly in West Antarctica).

- Scribbler does not cite that beginning in the 1970's the ozone hole over Antarctica accelerated the circumpolar winds to a near optimal velocities for advecting CDW towards the grounding lines of associated marine glaciers and that as the ozone hole has begun to heal itself, the concurrent increase in GHG concentrations has kept the circumpolar wind velocities within the optimal range for such advection:

The Present Threat to Coastal Cities From Antarctic and Greenland Melt

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/18/the-present-threat-to-coastal-cities-from-antarctic-and-greenland-melt/

Extract: "With global temperatures now exceeding 1 C and with these temperatures likely to exceed 1.5 C within the next two decades, it is certain that broader heat-based stresses to these various glacial systems will increase. And we are likely to see coincident melt rate acceleration as more glaciers become less stable. The result is that coastal flooding conditions will tend to follow a worsening trend — with the most vulnerable regions like the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts feeling the impact first. Unfortunately, there is risk that this trend will include the sudden acceleration of various glaciers into the ocean, which will coincide with rapid increases in global rates of sea level rise. In other words, the trend for sea level rise is less likely to be smooth and more likely to include a number of melt pulse spikes.

Such an overall trend including outlier risks paints a relatively rough picture for coastal city planners in the 1-3 decade timeframe. But on the multi-decade horizon there is a rising risk that sudden glacial destabilization — first in Greenland and West Antarctica and later in East Antarctica will put an increasing number of coastal cities permanently under water."

12
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: August 18, 2017, 11:27:47 PM »
The linked reference runs two modeled radiative forcing scenarios for the Eocene, one driven by high atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and one driven by reduced cloud albedo (and moderate CO₂ concentrations).  "The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference …" but different regional signatures that could be checked using both local paleodata and/or other models run with same forcing scenarios.  It goes without saying that the reduced cloud albedo scenario indicates higher climate sensitivity, and also closely matches the paleodata findings of moderate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the Eocene cited in Replies #256 & 318:

Carlson, H. and Caballero, R.: Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene, Clim. Past, 13, 1037-1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1037-2017, 2017.

https://www.clim-past.net/13/1037/2017/

Abstract. Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Edit, I provide the two attached images showing the Global Temperature for the past 500 million years and the past 5 million years, respectively; and I note that while the Panama Isthmus closed about 5 million years ago (which changes the dynamics of the paleo-ENSO cycle); nevertheless I believe that the near-future ENSO cycle is relatively susceptible to amplification via chaos theory's climate attractors.

13
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: August 18, 2017, 11:13:16 PM »
The following reference indicates that the Bering Land Bridge (and by extension the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, which is at the same approximate elevation); flooded rapidly about 11 kya; which taken together with my last post would indicate that methane hydrates in these area could now be experiencing the destabilizing thermal pulse associated with this flooding event:

Jakobsson, M., Pearce, C., Cronin, T. M., Backman, J., Anderson, L. G., Barrientos, N., Björk, G., Coxall, H., de Boer, A., Mayer, L. A., Mörth, C.-M., Nilsson, J., Rattray, J. E., Stranne, C., Semiletov, I., and O'Regan, M.: Post-glacial flooding of the Bering Land Bridge dated to 11 cal ka BP based on new geophysical and sediment records, Clim. Past, 13, 991-1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-991-2017, 2017.

https://www.clim-past.net/13/991/2017/

Abstract. The Bering Strait connects the Arctic and Pacific oceans and separates the North American and Asian landmasses. The presently shallow ( ∼  53 m) strait was exposed during the sea level lowstand of the last glacial period, which permitted human migration across a land bridge today referred to as the Bering Land Bridge. Proxy studies (stable isotope composition of foraminifera, whale migration into the Arctic Ocean, mollusc and insect fossils and paleobotanical data) have suggested a range of ages for the Bering Strait reopening, mainly falling within the Younger Dryas stadial (12.9–11.7 cal ka BP). Here we provide new information on the deglacial and post-glacial evolution of the Arctic–Pacific connection through the Bering Strait based on analyses of geological and geophysical data from Herald Canyon, located north of the Bering Strait on the Chukchi Sea shelf region in the western Arctic Ocean. Our results suggest an initial opening at about 11 cal ka BP in the earliest Holocene, which is later than in several previous studies. Our key evidence is based on a well-dated core from Herald Canyon, in which a shift from a near-shore environment to a Pacific-influenced open marine setting at around 11 cal ka BP is observed. The shift corresponds to meltwater pulse 1b (MWP1b) and is interpreted to signify relatively rapid breaching of the Bering Strait and the submergence of the large Bering Land Bridge. Although the precise rates of sea level rise cannot be quantified, our new results suggest that the late deglacial sea level rise was rapid and occurred after the end of the Younger Dryas stadial.

14
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: August 18, 2017, 10:48:05 PM »
The linked reference discusses mixed-phase altocumulus cloud feedback.

Andrew I. Barrett et. al. (17 August 2017), "Why are mixed-phase altocumulus clouds poorly predicted by large-scale models? Part II: Vertical resolution sensitivity and parameterization", Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026322

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD026322/abstract?utm_content=buffer64ee3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Single-column model simulations of mixed-phase altocumulus clouds were shown to have a strong vertical-resolution sensitivity in Part I of this paper. Coarse resolution models were unable to simulate the long-lived supercooled-liquid-layer at cloud top, typically only 200-m thick. In this paper, the sensitivity to vertical resolution is investigated using idealized simulations. Vertical gradients of ice water mixing ratio and temperature near cloud top are found to be inadequately represented at coarse-resolution. The vertical discretization using grid-box mean values, rather than the full vertical profile, leads to biased calculations of mixed-phase microphysical process rates and affects the diagnosis of thin liquid-water layers. As a result the liquid-water layer becomes quickly glaciated and altocumulus cloud lifetime is underestimated. Similar impacts are expected for mixed-phase boundary layer clouds commonly observed at high latitudes.

A novel parameterization is introduced that accounts for the vertical gradients of ice water mixing ratio and temperature in the microphysics calculations and the diagnosis of liquid near cloud top. It substantially improves the representation of altocumulus layers in coarse vertical-resolution single-column model simulations and reduces the bias identified in Part I. The new parameterization removes the large underestimate in supercooled water content caused by the resolution sensitivity for temperatures warmer than −30∘C. Given the radiative importance of mixed-phase altocumulus clouds, their underestimation by numerical weather prediction models and their potential to act as a negative climate feedback, there is a need to re-evaluate the global climate sensitivity by implementing the findings in these two papers in a climate model."

15
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 18, 2017, 10:14:44 PM »
Per Axios, Bannon & Breitbart are preparing to go "thermonuclear" against the "globalist" 'cabal' within the White House:

Title: "Bannon, backed by billionaire, prepares to go to war"

https://www.axios.com/bannons-next-move-2474479917.html

Extract:
•   "A source familiar with Breitbart's operations told me they would go "thermonuclear" against "globalists" that Bannon and his friends believe are ruining the Trump administration, and by extension, America.
   
•   Watch for Breitbart's Washington Editor Matt Boyle to be a central figure in this war — which has already begun — against White House officials like HR McMaster, Dina Powell, Gary Cohn, and Jared and Ivanka."

16
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 18, 2017, 07:36:44 PM »
Apparently, today is Bannon's last day:

Title: "Steve Bannon’s exit from the Trump White House, explained"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/18/16145188/steve-bannon-fired-resigns

Extract: "Stephen K. Bannon, the president’s chief strategist and one of his most controversial advisers, is exiting the Trump administration after a tumultuous seven-month stint. The White House released a statement Friday saying that Bannon and White House chief of staff John Kelly had “mutually agreed” that this would be Bannon’s last day in his job."

17
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 18, 2017, 07:32:57 PM »
It looks like Bannon may be out soon:

Title: "Trump Tells Aides He Has Decided to Remove Stephen Bannon"

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/us/politics/steve-bannon-trump-white-house.html

Extract: "President Trump has told senior aides that he has decided to remove Stephen K. Bannon, the embattled White House chief strategist who helped Mr. Trump win the 2016 election, according to two administration officials briefed on the discussion.

The president and senior White House officials were debating when and how to dismiss Mr. Bannon. The two administration officials cautioned that Mr. Trump is known to be averse to confrontation within his inner circle, and could decide to keep on Mr. Bannon for some time.

As of Friday morning, the two men were still discussing Mr. Bannon’s future, the officials said. A person close to Mr. Bannon insisted the parting of ways was his idea, and that he had submitted his resignation to the president on Aug. 7, to be announced at the start of this week, but the move was delayed after the racial unrest in Charlottesville, Va."

18
The linked reference discusses work to better calibrate GCM projections using PETM paleodata associated with hydrological and biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming:

Matthew J. Carmichael et. al. (2017), "Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum", Global and Planetary Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.07.014

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818117300723

Abstract: "The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, ~ 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took < 20 kyr. The PETM provides a case study of the impacts of rapid global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous – some regions are associated with increased precipitation – evaporation (P – E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation events."

19
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: August 18, 2017, 05:43:38 PM »
The linked reference is not all bad news, as it points out that per their 1D models the Arctic continental shelf methane hydrate stability zone (HSZ) can take ~ 10 to 20 kyrs to respond to changes in initial temperature conditions associated with the end of the last ice age.  However, while it is pleasant to think of middle of the 10 to 20 kya range, as the attached image indicates the Holocene began about 11 kya and thus we should now start to see portions of the HSZ becoming unstable due to the global temperature increase leading to the beginning of the Holocene.  This emphasizes that modelers need to get their initial conditions correct:

Valentina V. Malakhova & Alexey V. Eliseev (2017), "The role of heat transfer time scale in the evolution of the subsea permafrost and associated methane hydrates stability zone during glacial cycles", Global and Planetary Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.08.007

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818117301273

Abstract: "Climate warming may lead to degradation of the subsea permafrost developed during Pleistocene glaciations and release methane from the hydrates, which are stored in this permafrost. It is important to quantify time scales at which this release is plausible. While, in principle, such time scale might be inferred from paleoarchives, this is hampered by considerable uncertainty associated with paleodata. In the present paper, to reduce such uncertainty, one–dimensional simulations with a model for thermal state of subsea sediments forced by the data obtained from the ice core reconstructions are performed. It is shown that heat propagates in the sediments with a time scale of ∼ 10-20 kyr. This time scale is longer than the present interglacial and is determined by the time needed for heat penetration in the unfrozen part of thick sediments. We highlight also that timings of shelf exposure during oceanic regressions and flooding during transgressions are important for simulating thermal state of the sediments and methane hydrates stability zone (HSZ). These timings should be resolved with respect to the contemporary shelf depth (SD). During glacial cycles, the temperature at the top of the sediments is a major driver for moving the HSZ vertical boundaries irrespective of SD. In turn, pressure due to oceanic water is additionally important for SD ≥ 50 m. Thus, oceanic transgressions and regressions do not instantly determine onset s of HSZ and/or its disappearance. Finally, impact of initial conditions in the subsea sediments is lost after ∼ 100 kyr. Our results are moderately sensitive to intensity of geothermal heat flux."

20
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: August 18, 2017, 05:41:11 PM »
The linked reference is not all bad news, as it points out that per their 1D models the Arctic continental shelf methane hydrate stability zone (HSZ) can take ~ 10 to 20 kyrs to respond to changes in initial temperature conditions associated with the end of the last ice age.  However, while it is pleasant to think of middle of the 10 to 20 kya range, as the attached image indicates the Holocene began about 11 kya and thus we should now start to see portions of the HSZ becoming unstable due to the global temperature increase leading to the beginning of the Holocene:

Valentina V. Malakhova & Alexey V. Eliseev (2017), "The role of heat transfer time scale in the evolution of the subsea permafrost and associated methane hydrates stability zone during glacial cycles", Global and Planetary Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.08.007

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818117301273

Abstract: "Climate warming may lead to degradation of the subsea permafrost developed during Pleistocene glaciations and release methane from the hydrates, which are stored in this permafrost. It is important to quantify time scales at which this release is plausible. While, in principle, such time scale might be inferred from paleoarchives, this is hampered by considerable uncertainty associated with paleodata. In the present paper, to reduce such uncertainty, one–dimensional simulations with a model for thermal state of subsea sediments forced by the data obtained from the ice core reconstructions are performed. It is shown that heat propagates in the sediments with a time scale of ∼ 10-20 kyr. This time scale is longer than the present interglacial and is determined by the time needed for heat penetration in the unfrozen part of thick sediments. We highlight also that timings of shelf exposure during oceanic regressions and flooding during transgressions are important for simulating thermal state of the sediments and methane hydrates stability zone (HSZ). These timings should be resolved with respect to the contemporary shelf depth (SD). During glacial cycles, the temperature at the top of the sediments is a major driver for moving the HSZ vertical boundaries irrespective of SD. In turn, pressure due to oceanic water is additionally important for SD ≥ 50 m. Thus, oceanic transgressions and regressions do not instantly determine onset s of HSZ and/or its disappearance. Finally, impact of initial conditions in the subsea sediments is lost after ∼ 100 kyr. Our results are moderately sensitive to intensity of geothermal heat flux."

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 18, 2017, 05:14:35 PM »
The linked article entitled: "Investigating the Enigma of Clouds and Climate Change", indicates that net positive cloud feedback may well be at the higher end of the CMIP5 assumed range; and that we need to carefully consider international ethics before we consider geoengineering measures like cloud brightening:

http://e360.yale.edu/features/investigating-the-enigma-of-clouds-and-climate-change

Extract: "In an interview with Yale Environment 360, Marvel discusses what is known about the behavior of clouds in a warming world (they are migrating more toward the poles), explains why strict controls need to be imposed on geoengineering experiments with clouds …
..
e360: What are the consequences of this poleward and upward motion of clouds?

Marvel: Both of them give rise to what I think is the most confusing part of climate jargon. We call it a positive feedback, and you think “positive feedback” — that sounds great. I like getting positive feedback. But when climate scientists talk about a positive feedback, we mean some process that changes in response to warming, that accelerates that warming. So both of those changes are what we would call a positive feedback, meaning it enhances the warming.

Marvel: With geoengineering, I’m always very concerned because if I want to do an experiment on human subjects, as a university researcher, I have to go in front of a review board and convince them that all of my human subjects have given informed consent to participate in this experiment. And with a lot of geo-engineering experiments, I worry about how that consent is going to be obtained.  There are starting to be organizations thinking about this; there’s something called the Climate Geoengineering Governance Project, that’s starting to think about how would we design an international law regime to actually regulate this. And I think that’s something worth thinking about.

Marvel: People ask me, “Aren’t you just depressed all the time? How do you keep going in the face of this?” We’re all going to die. You know, there’s not a lot of good news there. But we all manage to find happiness and fun in our lives anyway. And I do have hope, I do think that we are an amazing species; and we do a lot of terrible things, but we also do a lot of very good things. I do have hope in human ingenuity."

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Fee & Dividend Plan
« on: August 18, 2017, 04:59:54 PM »
By using part of the proposed dividend to give a tax break to the rich (who have significant political power), it may be politically possible to pass a carbon fee and dividend plan within the next year or so:

"Some Democrats See Tax Overhaul as a Path to Taxing Carbon"

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/17/climate/carbon-tax-reform-climate-change.html

Extract: "With a sweeping overhaul of the tax code on the horizon, two Senate Democrats believe this is the moment to broach the third rail of climate change policy: a carbon tax.

The plan by the senators, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Brian Schatz of Hawaii, to level a $49 per metric ton fee on greenhouse gas emissions is widely acknowledged as a long shot. But the lawmakers, along with climate activists and a cadre of conservative supporters, insist the tax reform is a way to create bipartisan support. The senators propose to use a portion of the estimated $2.1 trillion they anticipate in carbon tax revenue over the first 10 years to reduce the top marginal corporate tax income rate, something the White House has called for."

23
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 18, 2017, 04:52:20 PM »
Maybe Trump will give the nation a nice Christmas present and resign before the end of the year as forecast by Tony Schwartz:

'Art of the Deal' Ghostwriter Thinks President Trump Will Resign Before the End of the Year

http://time.com/4906262/art-of-the-deal-ghostwriter-trump-resign/

Extract: "The ghostwriter of Donald Trump's famous memoir The Art of the Deal doubled down on his prediction that Trump will resign the presidency before the end of the year.

"The snowball is beginning to gather momentum as it comes down the mountain," Tony Schwartz told Anderson Cooper on CNN Thursday. "It reminds me a lot of Watergate and the last days of Nixon... He's put himself in an isolated, no-win position. The level of his destructiveness is staggering.""

24
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: August 18, 2017, 03:33:15 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.9:

25
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: August 18, 2017, 01:48:17 AM »
Here is a link to a Wired article where Bill Nyes associates climate change denial (made both hardcore and soft-core denial) to cognitive dissonance:

https://www.wired.com/2017/04/bill-nye-says-climate-change-deniers-bad-case-cognitive-dissonance/

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 18, 2017, 01:34:56 AM »
ASLR,
You just made me lose a bet with myself.
I thought for sure you would quickly post the results of a study showing that modernization of the Third World would cause increased carbon emissions. ;D

But I guess we've gone off topic long enough.

Sigmetnow,

I am curious to see whether you will become an ASIF Empress when you reach 10,000 posts. Also, I very much appreciate your various posts to date.  I certainly wish the people living in the Third World all the best; but I am concerned that by underestimating our growing mutual climate risks that we are not doing them any favors  :-\

All the best,
ASLR

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 17, 2017, 11:23:25 PM »
I'm simply trying to bring a little reality to the hair on fire crowd.

CO2 emissions from agriculture, concrete and other sources are not covered in my analysis.

I would like to think that all parties in this discussion are being honest in their points of view; however, it would appear that the fundamental question is what is reality (as in what is the truth and what is 'fake news').  This fundamental question/difference between the 'hair on fire crowd' and the 'Pollyanna crowd' has been hashed back and forth in the "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough" thread. Nevertheless, in addition to your analysis not including "... CO2 emissions from agriculture, concrete and other sources ..."; I strongly suspect that your analysis does not include the following:
- AR5 carbon budgets are based on TCR (transient climate response) rather than on ECS (equilibrium climate sensitivity); but the industrial era began circa 1750 which is 300 years before 2050 (meaning that it is Pollyanna nonsense to be using TCR).
- ECS is a function of global temperature and the longer that we wait (I have been waiting since Kyoto) to stop global warming more and more positive feedback mechanisms kick in and the more natural emissions occur that your analysis does not consider.
- The global increase in kleptocratic governance is slowing the effort to resist climate change, and many governments are already under-reporting their GHG emissions w.r.t. Paris commitments.

I could go on and on but I suspect that my 'hair on fire' issues may just be taken as 'climate porn'.

28
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 17, 2017, 08:38:49 PM »
You guys see the Steve Bannon interview? This just gets more delicious with each passing hour! Honestly I wonder if his team actually looks at each other, let alone talks about what they want to do. This is downright pathetic honestly.


I guess that you mean the linked article entitled: "Steve Bannon, Unrepentant"

http://prospect.org/article/steve-bannon-unrepentant

Extract: "Trump’s embattled strategist phones me, unbidden, to opine on China, Korea, and his enemies in the administration.

“We’re at economic war with China,” he added. “It’s in all their literature. They’re not shy about saying what they’re doing. One of us is going to be a hegemon in 25 or 30 years and it’s gonna be them if we go down this path. On Korea, they’re just tapping us along. It’s just a sideshow.”

Contrary to Trump’s threat of fire and fury, Bannon said: “There’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us.” Bannon went on to describe his battle inside the administration to take a harder line on China trade, and not to fall into a trap of wishful thinking in which complaints against China’s trade practices now had to take a backseat to the hope that China, as honest broker, would help restrain Kim.

But what about his internal adversaries, at the departments of State and Defense, who think the United States can enlist Beijing’s aid on the North Korean standoff, and at Treasury and the National Economic Council who don’t want to mess with the trading system?

“Oh, they’re wetting themselves,” he said, explaining that the Section 301 complaint, which was put on hold when the war of threats with North Korea broke out, was shelved only temporarily, and will be revived in three weeks. As for other cabinet departments, Bannon has big plans to marginalize their influence.

Bannon explained that his strategy is to battle the trade doves inside the administration while building an outside coalition of trade hawks that includes left as well as right.

He dismissed the far right as irrelevant and sidestepped his own role in cultivating it: “Ethno-nationalism—it's losers. It's a fringe element. I think the media plays it up too much, and we gotta help crush it, you know, uh, help crush it more.”

“The Democrats,” he said, “the longer they talk about identity politics, I got ’em. I want them to talk about racism every day. If the left is focused on race and identity, and we go with economic nationalism, we can crush the Democrats.”"

29
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: August 17, 2017, 07:14:43 PM »
In my opinion the linked reference has a lot of relevance to Shape Dynamics, the Holographic Principle, and Quantum Gravity and thus to HIOTTO.  It will be very interesting to see what happens when the recommended experiment (see Figure 4, i.e. the third attached image) is performed:

M.P. Benowitz (2017), "Universal Theory of General Invariance"

http://vixra.org/abs/1708.0190
&
http://vixra.org/pdf/1708.0190v1.pdf

For the abstract see the first attached image

Extract: "Through the introduction of the Principle of General Invariance, three additional quantum mechanical postulates have been put forth. Postulates I & II propose entanglement and holography arise from an underlying noncommutative structure between spatial positions and directions. Postulate III proposes an observationally motivated field equation governing these noncommutative degrees of freedom. The solution to this equation yields a coupled system of equations of state, describing the thermodynamics of the vacuum. To great surprise, these equations predict the existence of the vacua Mon and Mooff. These so-called atoms of spacetime reproduce the observations of the ^CDM model of cosmology { bringing dark energy, dark matter, inflation, and gravitation into a single unified framework. Finally, (and most importantly) we've designed a relatively simple and inexpensive table-top experiment to falsify such extraordinary claims."

Edit: When thinking about this reference, it is helpful to remember Chris Field's discussion on what is entanglement in Reply #350 and as illustrated in the 4th attached image.

30
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Tectonics
« on: August 17, 2017, 06:45:16 PM »
The following re-posted information indicates the tectonic behavior in the WAIS is more complex as the mantle below the Byrd Subglacial Basin (BSB) and Marie Byrd Land has magma with very low viscosity, as discussed in the two re-posted Replies from the Antarctic Tectonic thread (also the rate of ice mass loss from the BSB is exceptionally high).

The following abstract comes from the International Glacial Society Proceeding 65 at the following link:

http://www.igsoc.org/symposia/2014/chamonix/proceedings/procsfiles/procabstracts_65.htm

It is particularly interesting that Wilson et al 2014 indicate that the magma beneath Marie Byrd Land has very low viscosity:

70A1149
The POLENET-ANET integrated GPS and seismology approach to understanding glacial isostatic adjustment and ice mass change in Antarctica

Terry WILSON, Michael BEVIS, Stephanie KONFAL, Richard ASTER, Julien CHAPUT, David HEESZEL, Douglas WIENS, Sridhar ANANDAKRISHNAN, Ian DALZIEL, Audrey HUERTA, Eric KENDRICK
Corresponding author: Terry Wilson
Corresponding author e-mail: wilson.43@osu.edu

Abstract: "The POLENET-ANET project is simultaneously resolving crustal motions, measured by GPS, and Earth structure and rheological properties, mapped by seismology. Measured vertical and horizontal crustal motion patterns are not explained by extant glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. These models have ice histories dominated by ice loss following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and rely on 1-D Earth models, with rheological properties varying only radially. Seismological results from POLENET-ANET are revealing significant complexity in lateral variation in Earth properties. For example, crustal thickness variations occur not only across the East-West Antarctic boundary, but also between crustal blocks within West Antarctica. Modeling of mantle viscosity based on shear wave velocities shows a sharp lateral gradient from high to low viscosity in the Ross Embayment, a much more gradual gradient in the Weddell Embayment, and very low viscosities below Marie Byrd Land and the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE). Remarkable vertical and horizontal bedrock crustal motion velocity magnitudes, directions and patterns correlate spatially, in many aspects, with Earth property variations mapped by seismology. Within the ASE, extremely high upward velocities are flanked by subsiding regions – neither predicted by GIA models. Given the thin crust and low mantle viscosity, it is likely that this is not an LGM signal, which would have already relaxed, and uplift due to the elastic response to modern ice mass change clearly is important. As in other regions where rapid GIA-induced uplift has been measured, the crustal velocities in the Amundsen Embayment may also record a viscoelastic response to ice loss on decadal–centennial timescales. Along the East-West Antarctic boundary in the Ross Embayment, GIA-induced horizontal crustal motions are toward rather than away from the principal ice load center, correlating spatially with the strong lateral gradient in mantle viscosity. In the Weddell Embayment region, where crustal thickness is intermediate between East and West Antarctica and mantle viscosity values are moderate, crustal motions show the best match with predictions of GIA models. It is clear that lateral variations in Earth properties fundamentally control the isostatic response to ice mass changes in Antarctica. Ongoing integrated seismic-GPS studies are critical to developing the next generation of GIA models."

Also see:
The following linked reference cites evidence of low upper mantle velocities inland of the Amundsen Sea.  Such low-velocity zones indicate the presence of a significant degree of partial melting, and thus to potential for rapid rebound when ice mass is lost from the Byrd Subglacial Basin:

Natalie J. Accardo, Douglas A. Wiens, Stephen Hernandez, Richard C. Aster, Andrew Nyblade, Audrey Huerta, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Terry Wilson, David S. Heeszel and Ian W. D. Dalziel, (2014), "Upper mantle seismic anisotropy beneath the West Antarctic Rift System and surrounding region from shear wave splitting analysis", Geophys. J. Int. (2014) doi: 10.1093/gji/ggu117

http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/05/21/gji.ggu117.abstract

Abstract: "We constrain azimuthal anisotropy in the West Antarctic upper mantle using shear wave splitting parameters obtained from teleseismic SKS, SKKS and PKS phases recorded at 37 broad-band seismometres deployed by the POLENET/ANET project. We use an eigenvalue technique to linearize the rotated and shifted shear wave horizontal particle motions and determine the fast direction and delay time for each arrival. High-quality measurements are stacked to determine the best fitting splitting parameters for each station. Overall, fast anisotropic directions are oriented at large angles to the direction of Antarctic absolute plate motion in both hotspot and no-net-rotation frameworks, showing that the anisotropy does not result from shear due to plate motion over the mantle. Further, the West Antarctic directions are substantially different from those of East Antarctica, indicating that anisotropy across the continent reflects multiple mantle regimes. We suggest that the observed anisotropy along the central Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) and adjacent West Antarctic Rift System (WARS), one of the largest zones of extended continental crust on Earth, results from asthenospheric mantle strain associated with the final pulse of western WARS extension in the late Miocene. Strong and consistent anisotropy throughout the WARS indicate fast axes subparallel to the inferred extension direction, a result unlike reports from the East African rift system and rifts within the Basin and Range, which show much greater variation. We contend that ductile shearing rather than magmatic intrusion may have been the controlling mechanism for accumulation and retention of such coherent, widespread anisotropic fabric. Splitting beneath the Marie Byrd Land Dome (MBL) is weaker than that observed elsewhere within the WARS, but shows a consistent fast direction, possibly representative of anisotropy that has been ‘frozen-in’ to remnant thicker lithosphere. Fast directions observed inland from the Amundsen Sea appear to be radial to the dome and may indicate radial horizontal mantle flow associated with an MBL plume head and low upper mantle velocities in this region, or alternatively to lithospheric features associated with the complex Cenozoic tectonics at the far-eastern end of the WARS."

31
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 17, 2017, 06:40:26 PM »
The linked Alternet article makes the case that Trump is too afraid of backlash from the 'white male privilege' group(s) to fire Bannon anytime soon:

Title: "Donald Trump Is Afraid of Steve Bannon, and That's Why He Won't Fire Him: Report"

http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/trump-scared-steve-bannon

Extract: "If the president fires his political strategist, he could lose support from angry white nationalists."

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 17, 2017, 05:42:24 PM »
No.  But I am suggesting that the growth of RE and EVs will be ineffective at preventing a climate change related socio-economic collapse this century; if for no other reason than because technological 'fixes' just wet people's appetite for more technology and more consumption.

We have seen a flattening of electricity usage.  Efficiency is allowing us to satisfy our desires while not using more electricity. 

EVs may bring a small increase in miles driven due to lower per-mile costs.  But if we keep increasing our percentage of renewable generation we should still see a noticeable drop in CO2 as we use far less petroleum.
Attached is BP's statistics on worldwide energy consumption by source.  Some key Earth Systems may reach tipping points before 2050 and this graph seems (to me at least) to indicate that simple technological fixes (including physical geoengineering) will not sufficiently address our collective (worldwide) overshoot problem by that time to prevent a worldwide socio-economic collapse by 2060.

Edit, w.r.t. abrupt tipping points for key Earth Systems, see the linked article entitled: "Tipping points are real: Gradual changes in carbon dioxide levels can induce abrupt climate changes".

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170623100414.htm

Extract: "According to their findings, the increased CO2 intensifies the trade winds over Central America, as the eastern Pacific is warmed more than the western Atlantic. This is turn produces increased moisture transport from the Atlantic, and with it, an increase in the salinity and density of the surface water. Finally, these changes lead to an abrupt amplification of the large-scale overturning circulation in the Atlantic. "Our simulations indicate that even small changes in the CO2 concentration suffice to change the circulation pattern, which can end in sudden temperature increases," says Zhang.

As climate researcher Gerrit Lohmann explains, "We can't say for certain whether rising CO2 levels will produce similar effects in the future, because the framework conditions today differ from those in a glacial period. That being said, we've now confirmed that there have definitely been abrupt climate changes in the Earth's past that were the result of continually rising CO2 concentrations.""

See also:
Xu Zhang, Gregor Knorr, Gerrit Lohmann, Stephen Barker. Abrupt North Atlantic circulation changes in response to gradual CO2 forcing in a glacial climate state. Nature Geoscience, 2017; DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2974


33
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 17, 2017, 04:38:39 PM »
Al Gore feels that big money has hacked democracy, and to effectively combat climate change democracy first needs to be 'unhacked'

Are you suggesting we pause the growth of RE and EVs until we reform our government?

No.  But I am suggesting that the growth of RE and EVs will be ineffective at preventing a climate change related socio-economic collapse this century; if for no other reason than because technological 'fixes' just wet people's appetite for more technology and more consumption.

Edit: If the people on the 'trunk' of the first attached image of an 'elephant graph' are the exemplar of technology use in the world, then the people on the rest of the 'elephant graph' represent a huge appetite for today's technology (whose use requires consumption of resources); and if you create new technology then the appetite of the people on the entire 'elephant graph' increases.

Edit 2: The second attached image shows the change in the date of 'overshoot day' with time.  Which emphasizes that the Earth Systems are being overtaxed not only by GHG emissions but by many, many technological dis-utilities.

Edit 3: While certainly sustainable technology can make a contribution, effectively combating climate change requires modifications to our crony (monopolistic) governmental/economic systems.

34
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Tectonics
« on: August 17, 2017, 04:34:05 PM »

Is not the rebound a see-saw effect, wherein a bit of the Earth's crust rises as another part sinks?


The Article I read about this used an analogy. Imagine a big lump of dough on your table top. Plonk a heavy weight in the middle. The middle sinks and the periphery outside the weight rises. Remove the weight - the centre rises and the periphery sinks - slowly.

But I am a "wish I had been" geologist

The situation for the marine glacial portions of Antarctica is different than that for most isostatic rebound cases around the world.  If one thinks of the Laurentide Ice Sheet removal from North America, then as the middle of the continent rebounds, the coastal perimeter sinks, thus increasing the holding capacity of the ocean basins (at the current sea level thus causing sea level to drop slightly).  However, for the great majority of the marine glacial portions of Antarctica the 'seafloor' would move upwards, while the dry land portions of the continent would reduce its elevation but not go underwater.  Thus isostatic rebound due to the loss of the Antarctic marine glaciers (effectively the only portions of the AIS that is at risk of being lost in the coming decades/centuries) would decrease the water holding capacity of the ocean basins (at current sea level, thus causing future sea level to increase).

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 17, 2017, 04:20:41 PM »
Al Gore feels that big money has hacked democracy, and to effectively combat climate change democracy first needs to be 'unhacked' (or he is suggesting that our socio-economic institutions need to be geoengineered as a jerry-rigged 'solution' to counter-act mankind's inability to overcome its addiction to monopoly-extraction of power/resource without due-process/mindfulness) :

Title: "Al Gore Q&A and video interview: Fixing democracy to combat climate change"

https://theconversation.com/al-gore-qanda-and-video-interview-fixing-democracy-to-combat-climate-change-82426

Extract: "Well, big money has hacked our democracy even before Putin did. And it accompanied the transition from the printing press to television, when all of a sudden candidates – especially in the US – were made to feel they have to spend all their time begging rich people and special interests for money so they can buy more TV ads and their opponents.

And that’s really given an enormous unhealthy and toxic degree of influence to lobbyists and special interests. Now just as television replaced the printing press, internet-based media are beginning to displace television and once again open up the doorways to the public forum for individuals who can use knowledge and the best available evidence.

If you believe in democracy as I do and if you believe in harvesting the wisdom of crowds, then the interaction of free people exchanging the best available evidence of what’s more likely to be true than not will once again push us toward a government of by and for the people."

36
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: August 17, 2017, 03:38:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.4:

37
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: August 16, 2017, 08:43:46 PM »
With even NOAA saying that we are pretty much at 500ppm on a CO2e basis, there should be much more discussion about the Miocene. The Pliocene is already in the rear-view mirror on a CO2e basis.

One problem with the Miocene analogy is that the Isthmus of Panama had not closed yet, so there may still be lessons to learn from the Pliocene.  In this regards, the linked reference indicates that the mid-Pliocene is frequently considered as a rough analogue to climate change this century.  The reported finding come from Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), which tends to err on the side of least drama.  Nevertheless, these finding indicate a marked expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC); which typically is an indicator of relatively strong associated positive climate feedback mechanism.

Shawn Corvec and Christopher G. Fletcher (2017), "Changes to the tropical circulation in the mid-Pliocene and their implications for future climate", Clim. Past, 13, 135–147, doi:10.5194/cp-13-135-2017

https://www.clim-past.net/13/135/2017/cp-13-135-2017.pdf

Abstract: "The two components of the tropical overturning circulation, the meridional Hadley circulation (HC) and the zonal Walker circulation (WC), are key to the re-distribution of moisture, heat and mass in the atmosphere. The mid- Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~3.3–3 Ma) is considered a very rough analogue of near-term future climate change, yet changes to the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP are poorly understood. Here, climate model simulations from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) are analyzed to show that the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP were weaker than preindustrial circulations, just as they are projected to be in future climate change. The weakening HC response is consistent with future projections, and its strength is strongly related to the meridional gradient of sea surface warming between the tropical and subtropical oceans. The weakening of the WC is less robust in PlioMIP than in future projections, largely due to inter-model variations in simulated warming of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). When the TIO warms faster (slower) than the tropical mean, local upper tropospheric divergence increases (decreases) and the WC weakens less (more). These results provide strong evidence that changes to the tropical overturning circulation in the mPWP and future climate are primarily controlled by zonal (WC) and meridional (HC) gradients in tropical–subtropical sea surface temperatures."
 

38
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: August 16, 2017, 06:57:52 PM »
So there was a non-linear jump at around 220ppm CO2, which is below pre-industrial levels. This means that there may be another such non-linearity but not that there is such a one. Underlines the need for exercising the precautionary principal, if we hit such an unknown non-linearity it may be game over pretty fast.

The paper mentions that the required data is not available for the Pliocene, which had 300-500ppm. As we are already at 500+ppm CO2e we may have already run that required real-time experiment. Using a GWP20 for methane we are already testing a forcing of over 600ppm CO2e. We are trying really hard to find any such non-linearities.

A shortcoming of the discussion part of the paper is the lack of acceptance of the true level of current GHG forcing taking into the non-CO2 gases.


I concatenated the following reposts related to likely increase of El Nino events with continued warming.  In particular, N. J. Burls and A. V. Fedorov, (2014) notes that if we approach Pliocene conditions, there may be an abrupt/nonlinear change in the Equatorial Pacific into near continuous El Nino-like conditions:

The first linked reference uses CMIP5 projections to estimate that at least one source of currently increasing positive feedback for increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations accelerate is that during El Nino events lead to reductions in terrestrial productivity.  So theoretically this natural source should decrease as our current El Nino event continues to degrade:

Jin-Soo Kim, Jong-Seong Kug, Jin-Ho Yoon and Su-Jong Jeong (2016), "Increased atmospheric CO2 growth rate during El Niño driven by reduced terrestrial productivity in the CMIP5 ESMs", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00672.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00672.1

Abstract: "Better understanding of factors that control the global carbon cycle could increase confidence in climate projections. Previous studies found good correlation between the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Growth rate of atmospheric CO2 increases during El Niño but decreases during La Niña. In this study, long-term simulations of the Earth System Models (ESMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive were used to examine the interannual carbon flux variability associated with ENSO. The ESMs simulate the relationship reasonably well with a delay of several months between ENSO and the changes in atmospheric CO2. The increase in atmospheric CO2 associated with El Niño is mostly caused by decreasing Net Primary Production (NPP) in the ESMs. It is suggested that NPP anomalies over South Asia are at their maxima during boreal spring; therefore, the increase in CO2 concentration lags four to five months behind the peak phase of El Niño. The decrease in NPP during El Niño may be caused by decreased precipitation and increased temperature over tropical regions. Furthermore, systematic errors may exist in the ESM-simulated temperature responses to ENSO phases over tropical land areas, and these errors may lead to overestimation of ENSO-related NPP anomalies. In contrast, carbon fluxes from heterotrophic respiration and natural fires are likely underestimated in the ESMs compared with offline model results and observational estimates, respectively. These uncertainties should be considered in long-term projections that include climate–carbon feedbacks."

Also, many scientists are concerned that the Earth may be headed towards a Pliocene type of climate this century due to global warming.  The linked reference indicates that changes in cloud cover/albedo for such conditions would rapidly induce the Equatorial Pacific Ocean into a permanent El Nino-like state.  As cloud albedo is a rapid response feedback mechanism, such a change could happen in as little as a few decades from now (say 2040-2050). Permanent El Nino-like conditions would telecommunicate large amounts of heat from the Equatorial Pacific directly to West Antarctica.

N. J. Burls and A. V. Fedorov, (2014), "Simulating Pliocene warmth and a permanent El Niño-like state: the role of cloud albedo", Paleoceanography, DOI: 10.1002/2014PA00264

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014PA002644/abstract

Abstract: "Available evidence suggests that during the early Pliocene (4-5 Ma) the mean east–west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was significantly smaller than today, possibly reaching only 1-2°C. The meridional SST gradients were also substantially weaker, implying an expanded ocean warm pool in low latitudes. Subsequent global cooling led to the establishment of the stronger, modern temperature gradients. Given our understanding of the physical processes that maintain the present-day cold tongue in the east, warm pool in the west and hence sharp temperature contrasts, determining the key factors that maintained early Pliocene climate still presents a challenge for climate theories and models. This study demonstrates how different cloud properties could provide a solution. We show that a reduction in the meridional gradient in cloud albedo can sustain reduced meridional and zonal SST gradients, an expanded warm pool and warmer thermal stratification in the ocean, weaker Hadley and Walker circulations in the atmosphere. Having conducted a range of hypothetical modified cloud albedo experiments, we arrive at our Pliocene simulation, which shows good agreement with proxy SST data from major equatorial and coastal upwelling regions, the tropical warm pool, mid and high latitudes, and available subsurface temperature data. As suggested by the observations, the simulated Pliocene-like climate sustains a robust ENSO despite the reduced mean east–west SST gradient. Our results demonstrate that cloud albedo changes may be a critical element of Pliocene climate and that simulating the meridional SST gradient correctly is central to replicating the geographical patterns of Pliocene warmth.""

Also, Kim et al (2014) indicates that before 2040 CMIP5 models indicate that the amplitude of the ENSO phases will increase, indicating that when the El Nino events return for the next 25-years they are likely to be stronger than previously experienced leading to more abrupt climate change [see: Seon Tae Kim, Wenju Cai, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, Eric Guilyardi & Soon-Il An, (2014), "Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2326].

Also, Praetorius & Mix (2014) provide paleo-evidence of the importance of the synchronization of the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic, Oceans on Artic amplification: Summer K. Praetorius, Alan C. Mix, (2014), "Synchronization of North Pacific and Greenland climates preceded abrupt deglacial warming", Science 25 July 2014: Vol. 345 no. 6195 pp. 444-448 DOI: 10.1126/science.1252000

Edit: For ease of reference, I provide the attached image which indicates the timeline for the most recent epochs (including the Pliocene)

39
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: August 16, 2017, 05:22:41 PM »
ASLR, todays figure from NOAA wrt OHC shows a skydive downward.
snip
Second, the PDO value for July was a meager +0,10 so the long positive streak is still there but it remains to see if it will survive August too.

The attached images (first of Cowan's Nino 3.4 issued today & the second of the NOAA Nino 3.4 forecast, also issued today), concur that we are rapidly moving to the cool side of neutral ENSO conditions.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 16, 2017, 05:06:21 PM »
Given the short period that most of the proposed geo-engineering aerosol particles will stay in the atmosphere, there will most probably be proposals for short-duration/large-scale tests. Each time extending the period of the test to see the effects. Any bad effects, the test stops and the particles in the atmosphere are flushed out within a few weeks.

Add promises of food aid etc. and it does look like a viable option. Not one I actually want to see, but given the political realities quite likely at some point.


While I concur with you that: (a) decision makers will find it irresistible to deploy some limited form of solar geoengineering; and (b) that currently we are most likely too far from any major tipping point for a limited deployment of solar geoengineering to do irreversible damage to the climate state.  That said, in the coming decades we will move from a CO₂-eq of over 521 ppm to something closure to the 680 ppm experience during the last equable climate, and as the two following reposts indicate, it is conceivable that the perturbation from a limited solar engineering deployment (say circa 2045 to 2050) might flip the NH atmosphere into an equable pattern:

First repost:
"I note that the first attached image shows how the atmosphere can abruptly bifurcate from our current saddle-node into an equable atmospheric pattern; while the following reference (and the associated second attached image) indicate that such a bifurcation could occur as soon as the CO2-equiv concentration reaches about 680ppm.  I note that our current CO2-equiv well exceeds 520ppm.  Furthermore, if Hansen's ice-climate feedback due to the possible collapse of the WAIS were to occur in the next few decades then we might bifurcate into an equable climate pattern sooner rather than later (which would be stupid for us to allow to happen).

Jagniecki,Elliot A. et al. (2015), "Eocene atmospheric CO2from the nahcolite proxy", Geology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G36886.1


http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/early/2015/10/23/G36886.1

ftp://rock.geosociety.org/pub/reposit/2015/2015357.pdf

Edit: For those who do not know, it is easier to flip the northern hemisphere into an equable pattern (than the southern hemisphere), which is exactly what a collapse of the WAIS would do, due to the bipolar seesaw effect."

Second repost:
"The linked reference demonstrates for systems that can change abruptly, like Earth's climate (see the first attached image), why it is a bad idea for denialists to point at the large-noise in Earth's climate record to feel comfortable in the Holocene saddle-node that we have been resting in, as the second attached image shows that these large-noise fluctuations can kick us out of our comfortable saddle-node sooner, rather than later.

Corentin Herbert, and Freddy Bouchet (2017), "Predictability of escape for a stochastic saddle-node bifurcation: when rare events are typical", arXiv:1703.01450v1

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.01450.pdf

Abstract: "Transitions between multiple stable states of nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in physics, chemistry, and beyond. Two types of behaviors are usually seen as mutually exclusive: unpredictable noise-induced transitions and predictable bifurcations of the underlying vector field. Here, we report a new situation, corresponding to a fluctuating system approaching a bifurcation, where both effects collaborate. We show that the problem can be reduced to a single control parameter governing the competition between deterministic and stochastic effects. Two asymptotic regimes are identified: when the control parameter is small (e.g. small noise), deviations from the deterministic case are well described by the Freidlin-Wentzell theory. In particular, escapes over the potential barrier are very rare events. When the parameter is large (e.g. large noise), such events become typical. Unlike pure noise-induced transitions, the distribution of the escape time is peaked around a value which is asymptotically predicted by an adiabatic approximation. We show that the two regimes are characterized by qualitatively different reacting trajectories, with algebraic and exponential divergence, respectively."

Extract: "These results open new prospects for the analysis of time series exhibiting abrupt transitions such as those encountered in climate dynamics.""

41
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Tectonics
« on: August 16, 2017, 04:46:14 PM »
I'm not sure if anyone has produced a map where the ice thickness has been converted into base elevation of the continent.

As a public service, I re-post the attached image showing what Antarctica might look like if all the ice were removed and all the isostatic rebound had already occurred.  When compared to the map in Reply #81, clearly, this rebound could contribute meaningfully to sea level rise in the future.

42
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Tectonics
« on: August 16, 2017, 04:37:03 PM »
Just to emphasize that people have been aware of the activity of the West Antarctic Rift System, WARS, for some time now, I provide the following repost below citing 2011 research:

"The following from the Eighteenth Annual WAIS Workshop (2011), indicates how volcanically active the WAIS is now (Behrendt recommends that its potential contribution not be ignored when assessing the risks of coming SLR), and has been in the recent past:

"Geophysical evidence of Ice-Magma interactions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the West Antarctic Rift System
John C. Behrendt
INSTAAR University of Colorado, Boulder
And USGS, Denver
Radar Ice Sounding and Aeromagnetic Surveys reported over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet WAIS have been interpreted as evidence of subglacial eruptions. Several active volcanoes have shown evidence of eruption through the WAIS and several other active volcanoes are present beneath the WAIS (e.g. Corr et al., 2009; Blankenship et al., 1993) reported from radar ice sounding and aeromagnetic data (Behrendt et al., 1995; 2004). Aeromagnetic profiles (>10,000 km) acquired in the early 1960s over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) combined with coincident aeromagnetic and radar ice sounding in 1978-79 indicated numerous high-amplitude, shallow-source, magnetic anomalies over a very extensive area of the volcanically active West Antarctic rift system interpreted as caused by subglacial volcanic rocks. These early aerogeophysical surveys defined this area as >500,000 km2. Five-kilometer spaced coincident aeromagnetic and radar ice sounding surveys since 1990 provide three dimensional characterization of the magnetic field and bed topography beneath the ice sheet. These 5-50-km width, semicircular magnetic anomalies range from 100->1000 nT as observed ~1 km over the 2-3 km thick ice have been interpreted as evidence of subglacial eruptions. Behrendt et al, (2005, 2008) interpreted these anomalies as indicating >1000 "volcanic centers." requiring high remanent normal (and at least 10% reversed) magnetizations in the present field direction. These data have shown that >80% of the anomaly sources at the bed of the WAIS, have been modified by the moving ice into which they were injected, requiring a younger age than the WAIS (about 25 Ma). Although exposed volcanoes surrounding the WAIS extend in age to ~34 m.y., Mt Erebus, (<1 Ma) Mt. Melbourne, (<0.26 Ma), and Mt. Takahae (<0.1 Ma) are examples of exposed active volcanoes in the WAIS area. However, the great volume of volcanic centers is buried beneath the WAIS. If only a very small percentage of these >1000 volcanic, magnetic-anomaly sources are active today, or in the recent past, in the drainage area of the WAIS, subglacial volcanism may still have a significant effect on the dynamics of the WAIS. Interpreted active subglacial volcanism is revealed by aerogeophysical data reported by Blankenship et al., (1993, Mt. Casertz), and Corr and Vaughan, (2008, near Hudson Mts.), who raised the question of possible volcanic effects on the regime of the WAIS. Wingham et al. (2009) reported an average rate of volume loss from 2.6 to 10.1 km3 /yr from 1995 to 2006 for the Pine Island Glacier in the vicinity of the active subglacial volcano near the Hudson Mts. Probably wet-based areas of the WAIS would be the most likely to be impacted. Here I discuss these geophysical data over the WAIS, and conclude that even if there is a very low probability, future effects on the stability of the WAIS and associated sea-level rise should not be ignored, as changes observed in the past 20 years resulting from global warming, could be accelerated by subglacial volcanism."

The attached figures are also from a Behrendt 2011 pptx."

43
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: August 16, 2017, 04:25:39 PM »
The linked reference discusses a study of predicting the response of tropical rainforests to climate change.  It was the first such study "… to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change."  It focused on a tropical forest in Puerto Rico and found that over the coming decades the forest would be changed from a carbon sink to a carbon source.  Most CMIP5 err on the side of least drama with regard to this important positive feedback mechanism:

Xiaohui Feng et. al. (14 August 2017), "Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling", Global Change Biology, DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13863

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13863/abstract?utm_content=buffer4875c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate."

44
Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: August 16, 2017, 04:06:20 PM »
The linked article highlights the fact that our current fossil fuel driven form of crony capitalism (hyper-extractive monopoly capitalism) is not only limiting society's potential (within an equitable economy) but it is also damaging our world via over consumption.  Many of its proposed solutions are comparable to technocratic recommendations:

Title: "Unleashing the Transformative Potential of an Equitable Economy"

http://www.postcarbon.org/unleashing-the-transformative-potential-of-an-equitable-economy/

Extract: "A more critical explanation for inequality is the ways in which the rules governing the economy have been distorted by power differentials and political factors. These rules—including tax, trade, regulation, public subsidies, and expenditures—have been tipped to advantage asset owners over wage earners, and transnational corporations over domestically-rooted enterprises. As a result, we are living with a particular flavor of a market economy— hyper-extractive monopoly capitalism—that is transferring wealth from workers and communities upwards to a small segment of the population."

45
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 16, 2017, 03:50:31 PM »
Trump has set a new standard for 'othering', including exposing future generations to greater impacts from climate change and sea level rise:

Title: "Trump Signs Order Rolling Back Environmental Rules on Infrastructure

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/climate/flooding-infrastructure-climate-change-trump-obama.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&_r=0

Extract: "President Trump announced on Tuesday that he had signed a sweeping executive order to eliminate and streamline some permitting regulations and to speed construction of roads, bridges and pipelines, declaring that the moves would fix a “badly broken” infrastructure system in America and bring manufacturing jobs back to the country.

In an explosive news conference overshadowed by questions about his response to a white nationalist rally over the weekend in Charlottesville, Va., Mr. Trump tried several times to steer the conversation back to infrastructure.

A key element of the new executive order rolls back standards set by former President Barack Obama that required the federal government to account for climate change and sea-level rise when building infrastructure."

46
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: August 16, 2017, 05:43:41 AM »
"Side of least drama" = soft denial.

rboyd,

Thanks for your many thoughtful comments; and I add two comments of my own on the topic of scientists erring on the side of least drama, ESLD equaling soft denial:

First, it seems to me that early climate scientists (of James Hansen's generation) were more forthcoming about the true nature of climate change.  Then once fossil fuel industrialists realized that facing this true nature of climate change might impact their marginal profit rate, they orchestrated an assault on science (including the use of hardcore denialists) that promoted scientist's ESLD behavior.

Second, it seems to me that true "climate porn" is not the dire scientific climate change projections; but rather the fossil fuel industrial's orchestrated denialist assault on climate science.

Best,
ASLR

47
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: August 16, 2017, 05:04:55 AM »
wili & rboyd,

Thank you both for your thoughtful explanations. 

Dealing with climate change would not be as dire of a problem if people (not just conservative scientists) would just realize their addiction to BAU in a timely fashion and applied similar clear thinking.  Perhaps some version of a twelve step addiction program would help people to learn that to change bad habits, they just need to take one step at a time.

Best regards,
ASLR

48
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 16, 2017, 04:48:50 AM »
Who is on first, Who has always been on first and What has always been on second.
Terry, pointing to his digits, then scratching his head.

Terry,
If you can't figure it out just watch the linked video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTcRRaXV-fg

Then once you have got it figured out, you can solve Russiagate and climate change next. ;)

Best,
ASLR

49
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: August 16, 2017, 03:33:49 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.5:

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 16, 2017, 01:37:14 AM »
How would one country put up a sunscreen that would lower only that country's temperature?

How would one country dump ground up stone into the ocean to sequester carbon without lowering the carbon content of the ocean for everyone?


First, Cao et. al. (2017) present some of the most advanced thinking/modeling on 'sunscreens'; and they conclude that even using a cocktail of both SAI and CCT (see definitions in the abstract below), would still result in changes in precipitation patterns that would result in some countries being subjected to increased drought impacts and some countries being subjected to increased flood impacts.  Thus even if one country managed to use geoengineering to keep themselves in a Goldilocks situation; other countries would be negatively impacted.

Long Cao, Lei Duan, Govindasamy Bala & Ken Caldeira (2017), "Simultaneous stabilization of global temperature and precipitation through cocktail geoengineering", Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074281

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074281/abstract;jsessionid=CD4EEF992F073831F2A191EFA5491888.f03t02

Abstract: "Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a backup plan to offset some aspects of anthropogenic climate change if timely CO2 emission reductions fail to materialize. Modeling studies have shown that there are trade-offs between changes in temperature and hydrological cycle in response to solar geoengineering. Here we investigate the possibility of stabilizing both global mean temperature and precipitation simultaneously by combining two geoengineering approaches: stratospheric sulfate aerosol increase (SAI) that deflects sunlight to space and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) that enables more longwave radiation to escape to space. Using the slab ocean configuration of National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, we simulate SAI by uniformly adding sulfate aerosol in the upper stratosphere and CCT by uniformly increasing cirrus cloud ice particle falling speed. Under an idealized warming scenario of abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, we show that by combining appropriate amounts of SAI and CCT geoengineering, global mean (or land mean) temperature and precipitation can be restored simultaneously to preindustrial levels. However, compared to SAI, cocktail geoengineering by mixing SAI and CCT does not markedly improve the overall similarity between geoengineered climate and preindustrial climate on regional scales. Some optimal spatially nonuniform mixture of SAI with CCT might have the potential to better mitigate climate change at both the global and regional scales."

Plain Language Summary: "Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide cause increase in both global temperatures and precipitation. Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to counteract this climate change by deliberately deflecting more sunlight from the Earth's climate system. Numerous climate modeling studies have shown that proposed solar geoengineering schemes, such as injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, can cool climate, but the amount of precipitation change per degree of temperature change is greater than that for CO2, meaning that such proposals cannot simultaneously globally restore both average temperatures and average precipitation. It has also been suggested that the Earth could be cooled by thinning cirrus clouds, but the amount of precipitation change per degree of temperature change for this method is less than that for CO2. Our climate modeling study shows, for the first time, that a cocktail of these two approaches would decrease precipitation and temperature in the same ratios as they are increased by CO2, which would allow simultaneous recovery of preindustrial temperature and precipitation in a high CO2 world at global scale. We show that although the average temperatures and precipitation can be recovered at global scale, substantial differences between the geoengineered and natural climates persist at regional scale."

See also: "Could 'cocktail geoengineering' save the climate?"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-cocktail-geoengineering-climate.html

Extract: "The team—which includes Carnegie's Ken Caldeira, Long Cao and Lei Duan of Zhejiang University, and Govindasamy Bala of the Indian Institute of Science—used models to simulate what would happen if sunlight were scattered by particles at the same time as the cirrus clouds were thinned. They wanted to understand how effective this combined set of tools would be at reversing climate change, both globally and regionally.

The good news is that their simulations showed that if both methods are deployed in concert, it would decrease warming to pre-industrial levels, as desired, and on a global level rainfall would also stay at pre-industrial levels. But the bad news is that while global average climate was largely restored, substantial differences remained locally, with some areas getting much wetter and other areas getting much drier."

Second, if putting ground-up stones into the ocean is such a cost effective solution that one country would volunteer to do it for the good of the whole world; then why doesn't that country implement that form of geoengineering right now?

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