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Messages - Paddy

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1
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland ice sheet retreat
« on: March 22, 2017, 08:35:39 PM »
Re 1 and 2: technically not ice sheets.

Re 3: Greenland's ice mass hits a new low practically every year, as the link I posted in the previous comment indicates. How much the ice mass drops this year we have yet to find out, but yeah, I doubt this year will be an exception.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: March 17, 2017, 02:08:23 PM »
Looks that way, yeah - as Jim Pettit pointed out on the IJIS thread, no previous year has seen a rise from this date on that would push us back over 13.88.

And even if we do get such a record rise, there's no way extent will climb over 14 million now. I declare the 13.75 to 14 category the winner.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 13, 2017, 05:17:44 PM »
Btw, Neven, "sis" is usually a colloquialism for "sister". Although I'm sure seaicesailor wouldn't be offended by the monikor.

4
Yeah, even with only the NSIDC figures to go on in the other thread recently, I think we can call this for the 2 to 2.25 bin. Good guesswork, everyone!

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC Arctic sea ice news
« on: March 09, 2017, 01:11:59 AM »
February's monthly update is out: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/03/another-warm-month-in-the-arctic/

In brief summary, it's another record low monthly extent, as anyone on this forum would be aware. Also, the final section regarding concerns about the lifespan of current satellites tracking sea ice is well worth taking note of, imho.


6
I'm away over the weekend.  Let's compromise and call it on Monday :-)

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: March 08, 2017, 01:11:15 PM »
When do we feel we should call time on the max? I'd be tempted to set March 21st as the date to announce the poll winner if we aren't then at or very close to the max for the year, as a post-equinox max seems unlikely.

8
It's looking quite a lot like we have a winner (2 to 2.25), though I'd like to wait another week or so before calling it, just in case.

9
Walking the walk / Re: Top climate-friendly actions
« on: March 07, 2017, 12:11:25 AM »
I'd just like to link here to a good article on the issues with and limitations of ethical consumerism: https://qz.com/920561/conscious-consumerism-is-a-lie-heres-a-better-way-to-help-save-the-world/

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: March 06, 2017, 08:25:02 AM »
Too bad, Oren.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: 2017 PIOMAS Maximum Monthly Figure
« on: March 05, 2017, 10:33:41 PM »
20.5 to 21.0, based on a 21st century average volume growth from end Feb of 2.1.

12
Policy and solutions / Lists of current elected denialist politicians
« on: February 28, 2017, 02:36:55 PM »
I was thinking we could do with lists of elected politicians that we particularly need to challenge on climate change. After a little research, here's a shortlist of denialist UK MPs, sorted by party:

Peter Lilley (Con)
John Hayes (Con)
Owen Patterson (Con)
John Redwood (Con)
David Davis (Con)
Christopher Chope (Con)
Andrew Tyrie (Con)
Nigel Evans (Con)
Sammy Wilson (DUP)
Graham Stringer (Lab)
Douglas Carswell (UKIP)

If anyone has any modifications to suggest to this list, and/or any lists from other countries to suggest, they'd be very welcome :-)

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 28, 2017, 01:18:18 PM »
I think it's fairly likely it may have topped out for the year, particularly as conditions forecast for the next few days seem more conducive to loss than gain (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts). Only time will tell, though.

14
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: February 28, 2017, 10:18:49 AM »
I see the aim for less unsustainable global consumption as reading equally on reducing individual impacts and also reducing population growth gently, as total human consumption = (total human population) x (mean individual consumption), after all, giving the two equal weight. Although consumption by the rich obviously affects mean consumption much more than consumption by the poor, with a very skewed distribution from Trump-like extreme consumers on one end to subsistence farmers on the other.

But I have to emphasise the "gently" in population reduction. At current fertility rates of 2.5 children per woman worldwide, we're only a little way above replacement fertility, with many countries, eg Japan, well below it.  There are still many women with unmet needs for access to contraception, education, employment etc worldwide, however, and addressing these unmet needs is about the best proven thing we can do to ensure people have fewer children later, which in turn should slow down population growth.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 21, 2017, 08:08:42 PM »
Casual prediction: Extent to peak by the end of February. (Relatively high temperatures forecast over the current ice edges this week plus the aforementioned long term forecasts of heat coming back into force).

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2017, 06:03:15 PM »
Will the temperature above 80 make it to the baseline? Maybe the circled "hot" air intrusion delays it a bit, but it looks good so far. This late freeze might give us the head start needed for the melting season.

Eh, the forecasts attached to Neven's blog show the arctic warming up again from about Thursday onwards. Not nearly enough time to make up for freezing opportunities lost.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: February 16, 2017, 03:42:22 PM »
Two consecutive days of century rises... Just out of curiosity, does anyone know how often that's happened before this late in the freezing season? I'd guess not very often, partly because what helped make it so possible was starting so low two days ago.

Meanwhile, I'm going to stay out of all the speculation as to whether/when we'll go above 14m, expect to say that I expect the daily rise in extent to slow down a bit.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 14, 2017, 03:54:09 PM »
Eventually, but not right away. In addition to being so far to the north, there's a fair bit of Iceland over 1000m in elevation and peaks over 2000m. In addition, some of the glaciers in Iceland are pretty big; they include Vatnajökull, which at 3000 km3 is Europe's largest.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: February 14, 2017, 12:15:37 AM »
Side observations on the graph:
- That grey area was significantly widened by 2016
- 2017 will have widened it significantly further this time next year (the first part at least, but quite likely at least some of the rest)
- Do peak temperature years (looking at 2015 and 2016) correlate with an earlier maximum? I'm sure there were plenty of local drivers as well, of course, but still.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: February 13, 2017, 10:18:45 AM »
During February, IJIS has stayed on the 13.31 and 13.37 million km2. That is, no a single increase on the first 11 days! IJIS could reach the 13.5 million km2 mark, because there is still one month in which there could be a freeze, but I starting to doubt that we will reach the 13.75-14 million km2 range. Under 13.75 will be a huge low maximum.  :(

2017 still isn't far below the previous lowest years for date, though. I think that 13.75-14 remains the most likely outcome, but it all depends on conditions over the rest of February and March.

21
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 12, 2017, 08:31:07 AM »
Down another bin in the poll... Will this be the final bin, or will it go one lower?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 09, 2017, 03:18:30 PM »
I'm with Pauldry. Could well be lowest, but no way it'll hit bottom yet.

23
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 09, 2017, 08:47:10 AM »
I'd still predict there may be a little more melting to come this next week, in Belliinghausen anyway, based on the forecast temperatures and fragility of what's there.

5 day temperature anomaly forecast from climatereanalyzer.org:



(And the high winds forecast for the same sea from the same source)

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC Arctic sea ice news
« on: February 08, 2017, 07:23:26 PM »
Got it. Will include a brief summary and also plan to copy maps and graphs with links in future updates.

25
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC Arctic sea ice news
« on: February 08, 2017, 05:52:49 PM »
February edition is out: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/02/2017-ushers-in-record-low-extent/

I'm planning to start a monthly update on this, if that would be useful - please feed back on whether it would.

Key figures in the first paragraph:

"Arctic sea ice extent for January 2017 averaged 13.38 million square kilometers (5.17 million square miles), the lowest January extent in the 38-year satellite record. This is 260,000 square kilometers (100,000 square miles) below January 2016, the previous lowest January extent, and 1.26 million square kilometers (487,000 square miles) below the January 1981 to 2010 long-term average."

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« on: February 07, 2017, 12:30:33 PM »
I think you are too pessimistic. When looking at the antarctic melt season, it's currently on record low numbers, because almost everything except the Weddell Sea has melted.

Actually, it's only the Ross and Amundsen seas that could reasonably be said to have melted out. The rest could all meet a bit more, depending on how conditions go the next few weeks. (See Wipneis' regional extent charts, correlate with concentration maps).

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« on: February 07, 2017, 11:50:12 AM »
Rough prediction: sea ice minimum volume of 2000 km3, based on a net drop from Jan 31st's volume halfway between the average and the maximum for the past ten years, as described in a comment on the main blog. I'd put wide error bars on the upper end in particular, expecting the minimum to fall somewhere in the 1000 to 6000 range; it's always possible we'll get poor melting conditions, but some of the oldest and thickest ice remaining is not likely to melt out this year whatever the conditions.

28
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 06, 2017, 07:44:47 PM »
I'd agree with the areas 2&3 (Belliingshausen sea) forecast for a drop, especially as there's been a recent rise there that's likely to be dispersal under current conditions.

29
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 05, 2017, 06:04:36 PM »
Just as when I was saying "it's about to start slowing down" the next few days after that saw good large drops. Easy to trip up on predictions.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« on: February 05, 2017, 12:50:40 PM »
NOT reported by the BBC, The Guardian or anywhere else that I can find. The message is not getting out there.

Nothing on a news.google.com search either. I suspect a lot of the usual outlets feel they've given their coverage to sea ice for this season back when wipneus' global extent chart was all over Twitter :S

31
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 03, 2017, 10:50:19 AM »
Only about 3 weeks untll the minimum now, based on previous years.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2017, 10:09:00 AM »
None of us are perfect predictors of the future, but yes, if things stay on the current course I'd now expect this year's peak will be similar to last year's.

Volume is another matter of course, never mind issues with high export etc. It'll be another interesting melting season to watch.

33
Antarctica / Re: Stupid Questions
« on: January 31, 2017, 02:39:23 PM »
Stupid, open-ended question here: do we expect sea ice extent around Antarctica to go back to something vaguely in line with the previous trend next year or to stay low following this year's drop?

34
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 31, 2017, 02:37:21 PM »
How do the area figures for this date compare with previous?

35
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 31, 2017, 09:03:06 AM »
Current concentration map shows lots of low concentration ice in the Belliingshausen sea, small amounts elsewhere:


36
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 29, 2017, 12:53:51 AM »
Thanks. Just to clarify, I guesstimated the decline of each sea to a general minimum date, not to its own minimum.

OK, I may have underestimated the chances of a <2 million minimum based on my own cruder eyeballing of trends by sea. Will be interesting to watch.

37
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 28, 2017, 10:52:40 AM »
 Regional breakdown shows how little is left in the Ross now:



@Oren,

Interesting and thorough analysis, but summing the different declines to minimum by sea assumes they'll all be at minimum on the same date. And although we'd expect them all to hit minimum around the end of Feb based on previous years, there's also likely to be a fair bit of individual variation, especially with ice in Bellingshausen and Weddell extending further north than the others this year, so likely switching from melt to freeze a few days later.

38
Science / Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« on: January 27, 2017, 12:20:46 PM »
Agreed, and even the higher concentrations in cities should ease with the rise of electric cars.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 27, 2017, 08:56:56 AM »
On a different subtopic, it looks like wind forecasts may be conducive to Fram export:



EDIT: full series here https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts

40
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 26, 2017, 05:52:12 PM »
It's coming soon. As you'll see from the regional breakdown, the most rapid drop in ice has been in the Ross sea, and there's almost nothing left to melt there now.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 26, 2017, 05:42:05 PM »
averages that include a 20% increase in total extent made up of brash ice compared to previous years is a false indicator.

at this point only volume is a useful comparison tool.

Fair points. I'm quite interested to see what the January piomas estimate will be.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 26, 2017, 05:20:12 PM »
saying that the recent increase in sea ice extent is in line with previous years' growth is as shortsighted as saying that the relatively low anomalies of negative sea ice extent, below similar low years, was the primary cause of massive amounts of heat and water vapor moving into the arctic from a super-charged tropical water vapor belt.

when someone caveats their analysis by saying, 'albiet thinner' what they are really acknowledging is that this metric is no longer useful in communicating actual sea ice conditions.

To add to this, I feel that extent at any given time of year is a particularly poor indicator. Best to look at average over a year at a whole, to strip out a little of the noise.

43
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 26, 2017, 10:34:29 AM »
I'm no expert either, but I'm sticking to my prediction of a slowdown in the melt.  If I was to predict hard figures, I'd guess that JAXA extent will bottom out at about 2.3 million square km (+/- 0.2 million). But it really all depends on what happens in the Weddell [edit] and Belingshausen now.

44
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 26, 2017, 05:29:09 AM »
...and yet the Polar star experienced more / thicker ice than usual:

...


This is a little odd, but I may be able to square the circle to a degree. The article never said the ice was thicker than normal, only that it was between 2 and 10ft in thickness (0.6 to 3 metres). As maps from the time show (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.msg99392.html#msg99392), there was a wide area of ice a considerable distance offshore in the Ross sea (looking a bit like a rocking horse in the images in the linked post). It's this very area which has since been vanishing from the map, being low thickness and not fast to shore.

It's possible most of the ice met by this icebreaker may have been towards the 2 foot end of the range - it doesn't look particularly thick in the linked images.

Still though... Odd.

@CalamityCountdown,

I actually think a new record low could happen, just not one below 2 million. But I am expecting the daily drops to reduce quite a lot now the Ross and Amundsen seas have basically melted out.

45
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 25, 2017, 10:28:19 AM »
Imho, we're nearing bottom for the year now. Not much left to lose in the Ross sea, and the other regions (a) are only falling slowly and (b) only have relatively secure fast ice remaining. I certainly don't expect that extent will fall below 2 million.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2017, 04:07:12 PM »
On a loosely related note, current temperature forecasts suggest warm conditions over most of the CAB all this week, with cold conditions over the Bering for the next few days followed by warmer conditions later in the week: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts

Imho, looking at the long term, maximum extent may look misleadingly OK by the time it comes around this year between Bering + Okhotsk ice growth and ice export through Fram, but the long poor winter for ice formation in the CAB and the aforementioned Fram export won't be good for volume or summer extent.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2017, 02:17:58 PM »
Given that the storms seem to be creating more dispersion and export, might we expect the volume graph here http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent/ to show poor growth this week, even if extent shows decent growth?

48
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 23, 2017, 01:32:27 PM »
Also worth noting that there's still a fair amount of extent to lose in/near the Ross sea, which was previously flagged as vulnerable. I think the chances of a record low are looking very strong now; it's really more a question of how much of a record.

EDIT: Does anyone have a link to comparative sea surface temperature / other melting condition data for the southern ocean to better inform our guesswork here?

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2017, 01:27:12 PM »
Does anyone have any figures that quantify export this year so far compared to previous years?

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 20, 2017, 12:59:43 PM »
But I would not be surprised if there was a temporary recovery in ice extension and volume, from now on and for the next one-to-two years.

I'd be surprised if any volume recovery (or, indeed, remission) started while these storms are going on, but if they settle down in a couple of weeks or so, it may yet start then.

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