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Messages - jplotinus

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<snip, it really has been enough now; N.>

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 28, 2017, 01:43:49 PM »
Better hope the Planet X, Nibiru, doomsday folks don't see the 2/27 o-buoy 14 image.
If they do, they are going to have a field day of doomsday prediction, I'm afraid.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: February 06, 2017, 02:06:01 PM »
Sun up Today:

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: January 16, 2017, 03:24:00 PM »
"Those who know, don't say; and those who say, don't know. Thus, 13.5-13.75.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 08, 2017, 01:13:10 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 18, 2016, 02:32:59 PM »
September 18, 2016
Temp 10°

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 24, 2016, 02:48:46 PM »
One wonders whether the crew of this Chinese flagged vessel gets shore-leave at Port of Barrow Ak? 😮

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 19, 2016, 10:54:29 PM »
Still more drift ice at Barrow at just after noon, local time today. Temp also hovering at and slightly below 0°C, too. One wonders whether that amount of drift ice will show up as +extent in the Beaufort sector?

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 18, 2016, 10:40:26 PM »
The coordinates from Obouy 14 video are problematic, I think. The ' and the " (min, sec) designation is reversed; and the location on google maps places it in the Laptev. That can't be right, can it?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 18, 2016, 07:07:15 PM »
slow wing, If you check the Barrow web cam it shows some drift ice moving in but no waves. The
Winddyty  site shows something else. OK it is a forecast for tomorrow but I think some calibration of these wave forecasts may be available ( at least a visual calibration ). If no waves appear tomorrow I would begin to doubt the accuracy of the Windyty arctic wave forecasts.  Web cam does show wet ,
muddy roads and water on a flat roof so it must have rained ?

Barrow drift ice

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 29, 2016, 02:40:58 PM »
I agree with waiting for Espen to post up the daily extent graph before posting up the extent number. Espen is very prompt and extremely diligent and reliable in doing so. I suggest we honor that.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 22, 2016, 03:48:47 PM »
Yamal Peninsula

"Bubbles of gas have created wobbly waterbed-like patches of ground in the Yamal Peninsula after unseasonably high temperatures sparked bizarre underfoot conditions.
The fun-looking patches of bubbling land were discovered by researchers Alexander Sokolov and Dorothee Ehrich. Some 15 examples of the phenomena were discovered in the area, according to The Siberian Times.
When the patches were punctured, methane and carbon dioxide gases were released, according to the pair. The researchers theorize that unusually high temperatures in the area may have caused permafrost to thaw, releasing gases and forming the bubbles."


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: July 20, 2016, 03:58:42 PM »
I imagine there might well be responses that it is far too soon to have started this thread. You may even be accused of unfairly seeking to achieve "pinned" status. I for one do not begrudge you that status at all.

In fact, based on the 'stall' that persisted throughout June and the ongoing 4 day lull in melt momentum, I would say thinking ahead toward the freezing season is perfectly proper.

I also think the extent lull (jaxa/IJIS) occurring over last 4 days may end up serving as the definite indicator that 2016 will not surpass the 2012 minimum. But, then again, the Arctic is unpredictable.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 17, 2016, 03:12:19 PM »
The 16 July drop of only -19k is extraordinary and could end up being the turning point away from a possible record low September minimum. Then again, maybe not. That result might be attributable to the cyclone in the Beafort area and may be offset by huge losses in coming days. It has been elsewhere posted that Nares transport appears to have started. It is also noted that at Alert, north and west of Nares, the coastal temperature is currently 16°, sunny and high temps are forecast to remain above 10° For the next several days. That is a lot of heat in an area having old ice.

My guess is that the -19k shocker may be followed by century declines. It is, after all, mid-July in the peak of the melt season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 14, 2016, 03:32:12 PM »
From 4 June to 9 July, BIG BLOCK went from being in the pack to being surrounded by relatively open water. I'm not sure if it is within the current weather advisory area or not?

Edit: I'm wondering if BIG BLOCK will become visible off shore from Barrow? 😮

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 13, 2016, 01:34:25 PM »
Slow wing

At first glance, I can only quibble with Laptev portion of your Siberian area. Laptev ice has been stubborn this year. At September minimum, there could well be a 200k extent remnant there.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 12, 2016, 02:02:48 PM »
The momentum of the 2016 melting season has slowed rather dramatically. That said, 2016 may still be on a path for a record low September minimum. It appears that a major cause of the slow down in melting momentum is an unusually slow rate of melting in the two Siberian regions, ESS and Laptev.

Slow in those two regions likely does not mean they won't melt out at all. In fact, in recent years both of those regions have melted out completely more often than not. Each region has had one recent exceptional year of ice retention of more than 200k km2; each in separate years.

I think both of those regions would have to defy recent history by retaining >500k km2 of ice (combined) in order to avoid a sub-2012 minimum.

Q. How long can the lag in melt in Laptev and ESS last?


A. I don't know.

If the September 2016 SIE minimum turns out to be significantly higher than 2012, then Jim Petite's graph is going to look rather unsymmetrical. Put differently, 2016 has been consistently at or below all other satellite-era years every month this year, per Jim's visually informative graphing system.

Furthermore, since much of the remaining ice is in regions that usually melt out to the level of 0<100k km2, in particular Laptev and ESS, a vote in the 2.75-3.00 bin is no more, or less, arbitrary than are the more popular voting bins that are in the >4.00 range.

Voted 2.75-3.00

That is a dramatic upward move from 1.75-2.00 in June poll. I here offer apologies for abandoning the intrepid group I was in at that prior low-low level.

Reasons for going up are:

First, 2.75-3.00 is still a record low prediction (or wild ass guess).
Second, as of June, the 2016 SIE was still 1milliin+km2 below 2012, thus 1million below 2012 in September was a reasoned guess, after a fashion.
Third, I'm still using 2012 as a frame of reference because 2016 is still below 2012 in the two areas that served to comprise almost all of the 2012 September minimum; namely: CAB and Greenland Sea. Everywhere else virtually melted out in 2012. Thus far this year, only the ESS and Laptev may be said to be lagging. It's possible the September level in those two will have some remaining ice, but it won't likely be very much, if any at all.
At present, the CAB has well more than 50% of the existing Arctic sea ice. The question is whether the September low in the CAB will rival that of 2012--about 2.8million km2? Given all that can be observed on the condition of the CAB and given the temperature forecast calling for at or above normal temperatures and temperature anomalies for the foreseeable forecast period (per climate reanalyzer), 2016 should continue to stay ahead of or match 2012 in the CAB.
As for Greenland Sea, 2016 is well ahead of 2012 and temperatures there look to be on the high side in coming days, aiding further melt in that area.

Here's a depiction using the 2012 minimum and two of Wipneus' charts to illustrate my guess. Come to think on it, the best approach to prediction might simply be to ask Wipneus. 😳

Because I've voted for an extreme low of 1.75-2.00 in prior months' polling, I think it necessary to take the full advantage of available time to vote in July. So I'm waiting until July 10 data are available before voting. I'm not doubting prior votes and will go 1.75-2.00 again this month unless July 10 data suggest a vote that low isn't warranted.

As of today, there's been a century drop for the first time since the month of May; and, SST's throughout the entire Arctic basin show up as being comparatively warm everywhere, with virtually no exceptions at all. It seems to me that the sst data point is a good one to rely on because it is inclusive of the entire Arctic Ocean, without placing undue emphasis on any particular area, to the exclusion of others. By that comprehensive indicator, all current sea ice, everywhere in the arctic region is being subjected to a amorous warmth:

I will wait and observe what the Arctic has to say about the matter over the next 9 days. I have learned that it is better to observe all possible data before making the wrong guess anyway. 😏

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 28, 2016, 03:03:52 PM »
The webcam at Barrow has not updated since June 24 😮

Longyearbyen working just fine 😌

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 27, 2016, 04:16:39 PM »
strictly speaking Tiksi is on the Laptev coast, I was hoping you had additional data to show.

I do not at this time :D
I'd be happy to check NCEP/NCAR in a little bit.

What I also find noteworthy is the comparison with 2014 which had melted broken up further in this area and had the Laptev bite reaching out towards the CAB. The weather conditions have not been quite as extreme as some people seem to think. Of course 2014 was colder and still quite solidly frozen further east along the ESS coast.
It will be interesting to see how 2016 progresses from here. Keeping ice in place and melting it in situ rather than exporting it to the north may not do any good for ice volume loss in the longer term.

It sure will be interesting to follow 2016 progress.
But keep an eye out for the bigger picture. Weather is also determined by how much energy is in the system. Which is determined by the albedo effect.
And that effect has not been particularly conducive of ice preservation in 2016.

Chances are temps at Pevek will be available. Pevek is near ESS, I believe. Current temp at Pevek is 12°C (June 27).

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 26, 2016, 05:35:08 AM »

"Have a nice day"

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 25, 2016, 04:04:38 PM »
There have been at least two noticeable apparent contrails recently, over Kimmirut in one instance and over Barrow on Thursday morning 23 June). Today, however, Barrow is quite foggy:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 25, 2016, 02:26:20 PM »
60 hour loop oft the Beaufort.   So much going on, it's mesmerizing. 

Edit: also if you look close (upper right corner) in the last couple images beginning at 19z on the 24th, what appears to be two contrails show up northeast of Amundsen gulf, going over the Beaufort.  Must be a neat ride.

Imagery courtesy of the university of Alaska at fairbanks.


"Mesmerizing" indeed. Very informative. I would like to request that you post an isolated pic of the contrail frames; or perhaps, a suggestion on how those interested can do it themselves with the downloaded animation?
Thank you.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 25, 2016, 05:35:40 AM »
The format is not the best, Espen will be missed this weekend, but...

.and 'Have a nice day'of course.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 24, 2016, 07:53:05 PM »

Will not be updated by me, due to a visit to an internet remote island during the weekend! 8)

Have a great weekend. Like others, I'm here assuming your destination is a warm island and not somewhere in the CAA, like, say, Resolute or Cambridge Bay 😜
Also, a weekend off duty is fine, but people around here will suffer withdrawal symptoms if you are away longer than that. 😨

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 23, 2016, 02:32:27 PM »
Zoom in Zoom out

Arctic sea ice / Re: New crack north of Ellsmere Is...
« on: June 18, 2016, 08:54:55 PM »
...increases the detached portion of the CAB to -  well just about all of it, really.

Well if it hadn't then, it has now...

Cracks may be influenced by 12°temp and 50+kph southerly winds reported at Alert at present (6/18 @ 2:00pm local time).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 11:10:54 PM »
Yes, Eureka has some impressive weather. But it is quite land-locked in the centre of Ellesmere with all of Axel Heiberg Island to the West. It warms easily for its latitude. Don't give it too much importance.


Based on your observation, I wonder if Alert, at the northern tip of Ellesmere, might be a better site for temperature observation on Ellesmere Island, as it relates to sea ice? Alert is at the coast adjacent to fast ice. While temperatures at Alert have been above 0° for the last several days, Alert has not had any 10°+ temperature readings as yet, to my knowledge.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 01:43:16 PM »
thanks for making it easy for us to compare those years. What is most striking is how white the floes in 2016 are. Only those which have drifted near the coast are beginning to show signs of surface melting.

Thanks a lot from me too, A-Team. I'm also surprised to see the difference in whiteness with previous years, although the Beaufort has been relatively cold and cloudy just when melt onset really kicks in.

I have just expressed my concern on the ASIB over the situation in the Beaufort Sea, given all the open water, but I might have to take some of that back if preconditioning takes so long to get going.

I'd like to second (third) these thanks to A-team.
Your post shows a great assessment of the Beaufort at this time, compared to past years, and that 2012 animation into halfway July is absolutely amazing.

It appears that in the Beaufort, 2016 is even more fragmented than 2012, which spells serious trouble down the road into July.
It also seems that these floes in 2016 are brighter than in 2012, and I wonder how much of that is simple brightness difference in the pictures, and how much is real.
MODIS does not have any 2012 pictures (something to do with their disk crash in 2013), so did you use WoldView for these comparisons ?

Also the paper you quote is very interesting. With the similar fragmentation in the Beaufort between 2012 and 2016, I can't suppress the notion that this year will develop similarly in that area of the Arctic.

On that note : Amundsen Gulf is already broken up, and ready to be flushed out.
I don not have software to make an animated GIF, but here are the images :
June 13:
and June 14:
Look how the cracks appear and the ice is loose.

All we need is some wind from the East, or current from the East, and the ice in Amundsen Gluf flushes out (before 2012 did?).

Not the best gif maker software (free app), but here goes:

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 17, 2016, 01:18:27 PM »
Looks like 2016 remains lowest after absorbing 2012's 'best shot' 😮

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 14, 2016, 10:52:32 PM »
it has been unseasonably cold in ontario canada so far, but the heat is on for the next week or so which should accelerate the hudson bay melting.

22°C in Churchill right now; June 14 @ 3:50pm local time. 😮

Standing pat at 1.75-2.00. The current, pre-solstice interlude of stalled melt is a condition explained by factors other than that of robust ice as nearly as I can ascertain.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 13, 2016, 04:01:00 PM »
Ice breaking kayaks(?) and contrails(?) at kimmirut 😮

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 05, 2016, 02:12:29 PM »
It might be useful to note that the small increase in SIE recorded 4 June, occurred when the land temperature reading was at or above 0°C at Arctic peripheral locations all around the Arctic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 10, 2016, 03:12:54 PM »
This melting season is simply relentless. IJIS numbers have crashed in the last two days, and the lead over the "new normal" years has grown to about two weeks. That's a whole lot, though it does not guarantee a record. 2015 went along a similar (though higher) record track, only to stop for one whole week at the beginning of June.

-Ah, so, June of 2015-

June 2015 is intriguing in that it is a reminder of how unpredictable the Arctic can be, and is. IIRC, the spring of 2015 was very cold in some parts of the CAA, with temperatures lingering well below -10° all around the Baffin and Hudson Bays, causing that ice to linger far longer than usual, though it did eventually melt out.
One wonders whether there are any areas of the Arctic that might give rise to a similar stall this year?

Or, whether 2016 will maintain its separation from the rest of the years in this millennium?

From what forecasts currently show and project, there are no obvious indicators that any sort of pause is imminent. Perhaps those who rely on models will need to do some tweaking in order to better aim their trend lines. ;-p

1.75-2.00 here. I hope it's not that bad, but if a "1" handle should occur, the chances that even mainstream media might begin to "get it" will be increased.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 18, 2016, 02:25:31 PM »
A new high for 2016 if I am not mistaken.

With daylight having returned up at 82°N +/- (Alert, Nunavut), among other factors relating to ongoing unusually warm weather, max may have been reached, sorry to say.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: February 13, 2016, 09:46:48 PM »
If the St Lawerence Seaway is to help reverse the downward slide in SIE, it will need to do so in the next day or so, as per iphone data. Does anyone have a link for st lawerence water temp?

Perhaps this will do?

Buoy data is available here, unfortunately there's no current data. (First attachment)

But one can check reports from ships nearby. (Second attachment)

That about nails it down.  :D
Thank you and thank LRC

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: February 13, 2016, 04:38:05 PM »
If the St Lawerence Seaway is to help reverse the downward slide in SIE, it will need to do so in the next day or so, as per iphone data. Does anyone have a link for st lawerence water temp?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2015, 08:02:54 PM »
It's not yet dark at the North Pole. Still sun all day for 2 more days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: September 17, 2015, 02:45:13 PM »
Yes, the melting season has been officially ended. NSDIC-9/11 @ 4.41million, confirmed by Neven. ;-)

IJIS reached a little lower, 9/14 @ 4.25(7)million.

Of the two, NSDIC/IJIS, which is considered the more accurate for baseline purposes for the re-freeze? :-0

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 28, 2015, 06:37:12 AM »
Barrow still getting hammered.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 14, 2015, 02:50:12 PM »
Hurt in the heart?

I had a copy of 2012 day 235 MODIS in my CAD. Thought it might be illustrative for today’s state of the ice.
This is what I found within a 150x150 km2 box in tile r04c03, some 500 km NW of Ellesmere/Axel Heiberg Islands:

First 2015, day 225:

Then 2012, day 235 (GAC-2012 had already passed by then):

In 2012, I counted most of the ice within the box as part of the ‘safe’ mesh-pattern structured central pack. That safe area had a surface just over 1 Mkm2, quite confidently knitted against the fast ice on the CAA and Greenland coastlines. You could make up from this that compaction was a driving aspect of the 2012 melt season. Thus the low extent.

For this year, honestly, I can hardly find any remnant of what I have approached as ‘safe’ mesh-pattern pack over the years. The wide, unstructured pool of broken-up, rather small floes extends for thousands of km2’s, only reaching compacted levels N of Svalbard and Frantsa Yosefa.

The lot ‘hangs loose’ from the CAA, leaving room for the channels to flush their broken fast ice into the Ocean.
If my favoured ‘mesh pattern’ has any meaning within the physical reality, I would say there’s a severe loss of volume and structural strength in the heart of what has been seen as the ‘last stand’.

The data presented above are impressive and alarming.


Changed from 3.75-4.0 to next bin up. 4.0-4.25. Getting toward end of melt season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 05, 2015, 05:26:59 PM »
Thanks, Verg.

Yes, I've been monitoring the Canadian Ice Charts. And I've been just shaking my head that the forecasts have repeatedly said the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ice would melt out, and then it doesn't. Originally they indicated that there would be a new forecast on Aug. 4, but today they changed that to Aug. 5. Seems like they might be as puzzled by the situation there as everyone else.

When I compare the daily charts I've collected (as well as the satellite images), it appears that some coastal regions are improving very slightly (i.e., there's a bit less ice or less concentrated ice), but many more are not improving and some are worsening. And, just as bad it seems to me, there appears to be enough movement of the higher-concentration regions of ice to make it inadvisable to count on using those green areas as reliable travel corridors. (But I'm certainly no expert!)

I thought 30% was the cutoff, so I appreciate knowing it's 40%.

The extent to which an ice cover of varying concentrations can be penetrated by a vessel varies from place to place and with changing weather conditions. With a concentration of 1 to 3 tenths in a given area, an unreinforced vessel can generally navigate safely, but the danger of receiving heavy damage is always present. When the concentration increases to between 3 and 5 tenths, the area becomes only occasionally accessible to an unreinforced vessel, depending upon the wind and current. With concentrations of 5 to 7 tenths, the area becomes accessible only to ice strengthened vessels, which on occasion will require icebreaker assistance. Navigation in areas with concentrations of 7 tenths or more should only be attempted by icebreakers

So much for memory, we were both way wrong. A reinforced vessel can navigate up to 70% concentrations by Navy standards. There is an ice breaker in the vicinity (the Oden), if you get stuck.


The underlying anecdotal data--ice in Baffin Bay--is much appreciated for its addition to understanding of what is actually going on. The data suggest that the September minimum for the arctic as a whole may depend in large measure on whether Baffin melts out or not. At present, it has not melted out.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 04, 2015, 02:29:14 PM »
Heatwave Alert for Alert ???

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