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Messages - jplotinus

Pages: [1] 2
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 11:59:15 PM »
Explorer expects NP to be open water this summer. Plans to sail to the pole in a yacht.

http://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-dominion-post/20170724/282089161833092


A dangerous undertaking.

Much safer flying there or are these parallel (military?) contrails of the 21st July North of Greenland just a mapping artifact?



-9°

Contrails like those you spotted are common in the high Arctic and often show up on worldview. Sometimes they form X patterns, other times they are 1000+km in length. I know of no source that assesses the environmental or weather impacts of Arcticcontrails. If posters are aware of linkable articles on Arctic contrails, I'd be much obliged for posting of such links. I'm not here speaking about the conspiracy theory links. Those are easy to find.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 10:56:04 PM »
Interesting to compare July 21 date for 2017 and 2013 near North Pole, Worldview imagery.
2013 appears to be worse:

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 21, 2017, 06:43:57 PM »
I'm aware of expressions of 'surprise' that Jaxa extent declines have been able to stay at or near the century drop level during peak melt period. Mainly, weather factors in the CAB, where most of the sea ice is to be found, and also areas like Beaufort that have not melted out as much as was the case in 2016 at this time, are relied on to suggest smaller declines are coming.

As I see it, the weather in the CAB is not cold enough to cause extent increases during late July on one hand, but vulnerable ice in Baffin looks poised to go poof literally on a daily basis now, on the other.

Wip's Baffin extent chart shows a 300k piggy bank extending north and south of Clyde River. It does not appear that it is unseasonably cold in Clyde River, where temps near 10° are likely to occur on a consistent basis in coming days. I expect Baffin extent losses to contribute to more century drops.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 18, 2017, 06:58:02 PM »
It appears to me there is "piggy-bank" ice in the Beaufort that will help 2017 keep its place as a top contender for lowest September sie minimum. Compared to the three prior years of 2014-2016, there's a greater extent in the Beaufort this year, but the ice there appears poised to disappear sooner rather than later based on eyeballing this worldview compilation:

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 18, 2017, 01:26:43 PM »
Stall? Worldview reveals few, if any, impediments to an open Northern route as of 18th July.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 12, 2017, 03:47:51 PM »
Those ice floes turned out to be bigger than they first seemed -- as I should have expected, since most of the volume is under the waterline. Here's the dragon of Koojessee Inlet:

Summer fashion in Iqaluit, yes? ☺️

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 11, 2017, 08:02:00 PM »
ESS near Wrangle and Pevek has not changed much in either extent or area from July 1 to 11, though warm(ish) temps >10°C are forecast all this week at Pevek.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 07, 2017, 06:42:27 PM »
Here's a candidate for longest observed contrail.
It extends across the Beaufort Sea from a point north (approximately) of Tuktoyaktuk (NU Canada), to a point north (approximately) of Prudhoe Bay (AK USA).

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 07, 2017, 04:07:52 PM »
2016 and 2017 extent measures have been running neck/neck throughout June and into July. 2016 ended up 2nd lowest, jaxa. A visual comparison of worldview for three areas--Beaufort, Laptev/ESS and Kara--show that the two years as of this date had similar demarcations of loss in Beaufort, Laptev/ESS, but very different ones in Kara. There's a lot of ice left in Kara this year that will likely serve to add 10-15k of daily losses starting virtually any day now, thus assuring that 2017 will continue to keep pace with the 2016 rate of decline, through July, at least. That Kara ice is not going to survive.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 07, 2017, 03:03:48 PM »
Rob

A 5.41m km2 September minimum implies an average decline of <50k/day between now and mid-September. We have not seen losses that would support an average of that low a magnitude as yet.

11
I stand with the outliers--1.75-2.25--in this JAXA poll, based on low volume and the possibility of a GAC at the wrong time/place for ice preservation.

In the NSIDC poll, on the other hand, I'm going with "past is prologue" where this year will be like 2016 (4.75+\-), by the NSIDC method of calculation.

Consistency is nowhere listed as a requirement for voting in these polls, right? 😲

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 30, 2017, 06:17:45 PM »
A chunk of ice off northeast tip of Severny Island has gone missing today, perhaps because of strong northwest wind, as reported for Dikson. So Baffin and Hudson may have some company in tomorrow's report.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 29, 2017, 10:46:19 PM »
Utqiagvik webcam appears to be down. Is there soot in the air there?

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 28, 2017, 10:17:01 PM »
Tic Tac Toe over the Beaufort Sea, or does 'X' mark the spot?
😯

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 09:12:51 PM »
The fact is, 2017 has the lowest volume as of this date. All else that might be said about the volume metric entails a bias or an emphasis that departs from objectivity.
I don't agree. All Rubikscube says is there is another metric, the rate of volume decline, and this one has been in the low side since May. Objectively, this is correct, and not wanting to see it is biased thinking. There was a lot of snow in the NH, a lot of coldness associated and it really showed.
Said so, the melting has really gained momentum with the heat dragged by the storm, didn't it? Prospects are not good.
EDIT. Actually I would say that the rate of volume decline has not been smaller, but has been delayed by weeks, as delayed as the snow cover melt in the NH has been, as was clearly shown in the Rutgers maps. The thing is: the solstice comes at the same date always, give or take one day, so that delay means for sure more ice in September

Your edit suggests that you do not agree with Ribikscube, though you don't actually say that. I would add that I do not consider Rubikscube as having introduced a metric of rate of volume decline because Rubikscube has chosen to limit the field of data comparison to only a handful of years, precisely in a manner that might be seen as a bias in favor of predicting a high, non-record, minimum.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 06:22:49 PM »
Rubikscube says:
"Every year since 2012 the same thing happens, some people fall into the optimist bias trap and start looking for confirmation that this is going to be another record breaker instead of trying to analyze the data objectively."

The external reality of Arctic sea ice is neither optimistic nor pessimistic with respect to the ongoing melt season. Thus, it is not objective to minimize the significance of the fact that 2017 has the lowest volume metric, still; and among the lowest extent/area readings in the satellite era. Objectivity mandates a report on data without bias one way or the other.

The fact is, 2017 has the lowest volume as of this date. All else that might be said about the volume metric entails a bias or an emphasis that departs from objectivity.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 26, 2017, 02:10:31 PM »
Tame? Perhaps, but by the 'eye ball,' it looks like 2017 may have moved into 2nd place with that 186k loss during the last 3 days.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 21, 2017, 07:36:32 PM »
Bluish you ask?
Tiksi, on the Laptev coast near Lena delta is unquestionable bluish:

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 17, 2017, 02:44:41 PM »
What just happened in the Kara Sea?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 16, 2017, 01:33:07 PM »
I was looking at this image because of the interesting colors in the Bering Strait.   But then noticed the contrails in the lower left corner.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images/2017_06_15_14_38_jd166


Jay

Those contrails are large enough to completely shroud the Diomede islands in what would appear to be fog. At present, it is also foggy in Utqiagvik. Worldview of the Bering Strait does not show as many contrails, but does show some. Further, worldview shows wispy clouds that could be the remnant of the contrail blasts shown in the image posted by Jay.

In addition to impressive imagery, the contrails that are being spotted raise questions as to whether or not they cause environmental impacts; and, if so, what are the impacts.



21
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 15, 2017, 02:14:36 PM »
looks like two bears to me – right? What is the dark line in the sky though?

I'm not sure if your query about the dark line in the sky is rhetorical or not? For the most part, questions about persistent contrails go unanswered because no one has any reliable information about them. Jet engines were engineered not to produce harmful exhaust as far back as the 1970's. Contrails that last for hours, spread and cause haziness over large parts of the sky do not appear to be harmless, but nothing very specific or exacting is ever said about them, so far as I know and I've searched.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 14, 2017, 11:29:34 PM »
Open water visible offshore from Utqiagvik


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 14, 2017, 10:47:48 PM »
Tiksi is in the path of the cyclone. Folks there may need to hunker down a bit.


24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 14, 2017, 01:19:21 PM »
Good view yesterday of Alaska looking into the beaufort. Still some snow cover on the extreme northern coast. Assuming it melts out this week that will still be a good week or two later than many recent years. Lakes and ponds on the land are likely to stay frozen for several days yet which can only be a good thing as it modifies air masses moving over them.


That large crack in the fast ice is located close to Utqiagvik and might become visible in the webcam there as open water if  the crack widens or if additional fissures open up.


There she goes.

57 hour loop

Imagery courtesy of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images


Webcam view:


25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 13, 2017, 07:07:23 PM »
Good view yesterday of Alaska looking into the beaufort. Still some snow cover on the extreme northern coast. Assuming it melts out this week that will still be a good week or two later than many recent years. Lakes and ponds on the land are likely to stay frozen for several days yet which can only be a good thing as it modifies air masses moving over them.

That large crack in the fast ice is located close to Utqiagvik and might become visible in the webcam there as open water if  the crack widens or if additional fissures open up.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 13, 2017, 04:00:06 PM »
Espen

Are you ok? Is everything good with you?

🤔

27
<snip, it really has been enough now; N.>

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 28, 2017, 01:43:49 PM »
Better hope the Planet X, Nibiru, doomsday folks don't see the 2/27 o-buoy 14 image.
If they do, they are going to have a field day of doomsday prediction, I'm afraid.
😳

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: February 06, 2017, 02:06:01 PM »
Sun up Today:


30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: January 16, 2017, 03:24:00 PM »
"Those who know, don't say; and those who say, don't know. Thus, 13.5-13.75.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 08, 2017, 01:13:10 PM »
MAXIMUM ??  🤔

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 18, 2016, 02:32:59 PM »
September 18, 2016
Longyearbyen
Temp 10°

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 24, 2016, 02:48:46 PM »
One wonders whether the crew of this Chinese flagged vessel gets shore-leave at Port of Barrow Ak? 😮


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 19, 2016, 10:54:29 PM »
Still more drift ice at Barrow at just after noon, local time today. Temp also hovering at and slightly below 0°C, too. One wonders whether that amount of drift ice will show up as +extent in the Beaufort sector?


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 18, 2016, 10:40:26 PM »
The coordinates from Obouy 14 video are problematic, I think. The ' and the " (min, sec) designation is reversed; and the location on google maps places it in the Laptev. That can't be right, can it?

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 18, 2016, 07:07:15 PM »
slow wing, If you check the Barrow web cam it shows some drift ice moving in but no waves. The
Winddyty  site shows something else. OK it is a forecast for tomorrow but I think some calibration of these wave forecasts may be available ( at least a visual calibration ). If no waves appear tomorrow I would begin to doubt the accuracy of the Windyty arctic wave forecasts.  Web cam does show wet ,
muddy roads and water on a flat roof so it must have rained ?


Barrow drift ice


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 29, 2016, 02:40:58 PM »
I agree with waiting for Espen to post up the daily extent graph before posting up the extent number. Espen is very prompt and extremely diligent and reliable in doing so. I suggest we honor that.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 22, 2016, 03:48:47 PM »
Yamal Peninsula




"Bubbles of gas have created wobbly waterbed-like patches of ground in the Yamal Peninsula after unseasonably high temperatures sparked bizarre underfoot conditions.
The fun-looking patches of bubbling land were discovered by researchers Alexander Sokolov and Dorothee Ehrich. Some 15 examples of the phenomena were discovered in the area, according to The Siberian Times.
When the patches were punctured, methane and carbon dioxide gases were released, according to the pair. The researchers theorize that unusually high temperatures in the area may have caused permafrost to thaw, releasing gases and forming the bubbles."

Source:

https://www.rt.com/viral/352688-siberia-earth-wobbling-methane/


40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: July 20, 2016, 03:58:42 PM »
I imagine there might well be responses that it is far too soon to have started this thread. You may even be accused of unfairly seeking to achieve "pinned" status. I for one do not begrudge you that status at all.

In fact, based on the 'stall' that persisted throughout June and the ongoing 4 day lull in melt momentum, I would say thinking ahead toward the freezing season is perfectly proper.

I also think the extent lull (jaxa/IJIS) occurring over last 4 days may end up serving as the definite indicator that 2016 will not surpass the 2012 minimum. But, then again, the Arctic is unpredictable.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 17, 2016, 03:12:19 PM »
The 16 July drop of only -19k is extraordinary and could end up being the turning point away from a possible record low September minimum. Then again, maybe not. That result might be attributable to the cyclone in the Beafort area and may be offset by huge losses in coming days. It has been elsewhere posted that Nares transport appears to have started. It is also noted that at Alert, north and west of Nares, the coastal temperature is currently 16°, sunny and high temps are forecast to remain above 10° For the next several days. That is a lot of heat in an area having old ice.

My guess is that the -19k shocker may be followed by century declines. It is, after all, mid-July in the peak of the melt season.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 14, 2016, 03:32:12 PM »
From 4 June to 9 July, BIG BLOCK went from being in the pack to being surrounded by relatively open water. I'm not sure if it is within the current weather advisory area or not?



Edit: I'm wondering if BIG BLOCK will become visible off shore from Barrow? 😮

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 13, 2016, 01:34:25 PM »
Slow wing

At first glance, I can only quibble with Laptev portion of your Siberian area. Laptev ice has been stubborn this year. At September minimum, there could well be a 200k extent remnant there.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 12, 2016, 02:02:48 PM »
The momentum of the 2016 melting season has slowed rather dramatically. That said, 2016 may still be on a path for a record low September minimum. It appears that a major cause of the slow down in melting momentum is an unusually slow rate of melting in the two Siberian regions, ESS and Laptev.

Slow in those two regions likely does not mean they won't melt out at all. In fact, in recent years both of those regions have melted out completely more often than not. Each region has had one recent exceptional year of ice retention of more than 200k km2; each in separate years.

I think both of those regions would have to defy recent history by retaining >500k km2 of ice (combined) in order to avoid a sub-2012 minimum.

Q. How long can the lag in melt in Laptev and ESS last?

i

A. I don't know.


45
If the September 2016 SIE minimum turns out to be significantly higher than 2012, then Jim Petite's graph is going to look rather unsymmetrical. Put differently, 2016 has been consistently at or below all other satellite-era years every month this year, per Jim's visually informative graphing system.

Furthermore, since much of the remaining ice is in regions that usually melt out to the level of 0<100k km2, in particular Laptev and ESS, a vote in the 2.75-3.00 bin is no more, or less, arbitrary than are the more popular voting bins that are in the >4.00 range.


46
Voted 2.75-3.00

That is a dramatic upward move from 1.75-2.00 in June poll. I here offer apologies for abandoning the intrepid group I was in at that prior low-low level.

Reasons for going up are:

First, 2.75-3.00 is still a record low prediction (or wild ass guess).
Second, as of June, the 2016 SIE was still 1milliin+km2 below 2012, thus 1million below 2012 in September was a reasoned guess, after a fashion.
Third, I'm still using 2012 as a frame of reference because 2016 is still below 2012 in the two areas that served to comprise almost all of the 2012 September minimum; namely: CAB and Greenland Sea. Everywhere else virtually melted out in 2012. Thus far this year, only the ESS and Laptev may be said to be lagging. It's possible the September level in those two will have some remaining ice, but it won't likely be very much, if any at all.
At present, the CAB has well more than 50% of the existing Arctic sea ice. The question is whether the September low in the CAB will rival that of 2012--about 2.8million km2? Given all that can be observed on the condition of the CAB and given the temperature forecast calling for at or above normal temperatures and temperature anomalies for the foreseeable forecast period (per climate reanalyzer), 2016 should continue to stay ahead of or match 2012 in the CAB.
As for Greenland Sea, 2016 is well ahead of 2012 and temperatures there look to be on the high side in coming days, aiding further melt in that area.

Here's a depiction using the 2012 minimum and two of Wipneus' charts to illustrate my guess. Come to think on it, the best approach to prediction might simply be to ask Wipneus. 😳


47
Because I've voted for an extreme low of 1.75-2.00 in prior months' polling, I think it necessary to take the full advantage of available time to vote in July. So I'm waiting until July 10 data are available before voting. I'm not doubting prior votes and will go 1.75-2.00 again this month unless July 10 data suggest a vote that low isn't warranted.

As of today, there's been a century drop for the first time since the month of May; and, SST's throughout the entire Arctic basin show up as being comparatively warm everywhere, with virtually no exceptions at all. It seems to me that the sst data point is a good one to rely on because it is inclusive of the entire Arctic Ocean, without placing undue emphasis on any particular area, to the exclusion of others. By that comprehensive indicator, all current sea ice, everywhere in the arctic region is being subjected to a amorous warmth:



48
I will wait and observe what the Arctic has to say about the matter over the next 9 days. I have learned that it is better to observe all possible data before making the wrong guess anyway. 😏

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 28, 2016, 03:03:52 PM »
The webcam at Barrow has not updated since June 24 😮



Longyearbyen working just fine 😌


50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 27, 2016, 04:16:39 PM »
strictly speaking Tiksi is on the Laptev coast, I was hoping you had additional data to show.

I do not at this time :D
I'd be happy to check NCEP/NCAR in a little bit.

What I also find noteworthy is the comparison with 2014 which had melted broken up further in this area and had the Laptev bite reaching out towards the CAB. The weather conditions have not been quite as extreme as some people seem to think. Of course 2014 was colder and still quite solidly frozen further east along the ESS coast.
It will be interesting to see how 2016 progresses from here. Keeping ice in place and melting it in situ rather than exporting it to the north may not do any good for ice volume loss in the longer term.

It sure will be interesting to follow 2016 progress.
But keep an eye out for the bigger picture. Weather is also determined by how much energy is in the system. Which is determined by the albedo effect.
And that effect has not been particularly conducive of ice preservation in 2016.

Chances are temps at Pevek will be available. Pevek is near ESS, I believe. Current temp at Pevek is 12°C (June 27).

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