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Science / Was the Medieval Warm Period the Result of AGW?
« on: September 18, 2015, 07:39:28 AM »
It has been difficult/impossible to find anything specific relating to this, but wondering -- could it be possible that the "Medieval Warm Period" was in fact the result/after-effect of peak emissions from the Roman period through the time of Genghis Khan & the Black Death?

Current theory seems to blame solar/other influences but it seems oddly coincidental that the "Little Ice Age" would follow the only widely-established human population decline in the last several thousand years.

Does anyone have any information on Roman-era carbon output? From this account it would seem it got to about where we were in 1750 or so. And while the popular narrative says AGW only began recently, the ongoing extinctions of megafauna/etc would argue that perhaps the impacts of AGW began *far* long ago, and we may actually be able to look at the Medieval Warm Period & ensuing Little Ice Age as an example of what happens when carbon emissions see a relatively rapid rise and decline (although not absolute, the derivative of output surely decreased as societies in Europe/Asia fell apart from ~1250-1500, and importantly, the end of this timeframe is when the Americas genocide occurred).

With industrial output only reaching levels it attained back in 0-200AD in ~1650 or so, that = a cooldown in human GDP output for approximately 400 years... which is perhaps not coincidentally approximately the length of the "little ice age."

IF this is anywhere near valid or true (and it could be completely off-base), then is it possible that the derivative annual change of our carbon addiction is more important to the direction global climate state than its actual figure?

I would think the explanation for this would be that the planet has an extraordinary capacity for absorbing CO2, and as we have seen, we have been surprised by the uptake of the deep oceans/everything else considering how much pollution humans have spewed.

Once industrial output begins to decline/carbon emissions decrease, that leaves the planet with its newfound "infrastructure" of expanded carbon sinks, and then these work to dissolve/distribute the excess CO2 at a pace that then surpasses humanity's inputs. These processes are particularly obvious to us over areas like the North Atlantic, and it could be possible that some variation of AMOC shutdown was responsible for the LIE over Europe as well.

Obviously modern output/sheer volume would potentially induce a sharper reaction both in terms of warming and cooling, assuming the warming does not run out of control. Is this insane or possible?

(this paper also a great read!

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